The Bum's Week # 6 NFL Best Bets 10/16-10/17 !

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Bills at Giants


BUFFALO BILLS (4-1)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -3, Total: 50

The 4-1 Buffalo Bills look to stay hot against an angry Giants team desperate to erase last week’s disappointing home loss to Seattle from its collective memory.

The Giants are coming off a five-turnover upset loss to Seattle, and now face a Buffalo defense that has forced 16 turnovers so far this season, including 10 interceptions in the past three games. Giants QB Eli Manning has looked unstoppable at times this season, but needs to avoid the mistakes that plagued him in Week 5 (2 INT, 1 lost fumble) and most of last season. But New York had only turned the ball over four times in four games before the Seattle debacle, so this hasn’t been a huge problem for the team in 2011. A bigger problem for the Bills is their massive injury list. OT Demetrius Bell (shoulder), LB Chris Kelsay (calf) and WR Donald Jones (ankle) will all miss Sunday’s game. RB C.J. Spiller (knee), CB Terrence McGee (hamstring) and DT Kyle Williams (ankle) are all questionable. With the Giants formidable D-Line nearly intact (Justin Tuck questionable with a groin injury), they will be able to disrupt Buffalo’s offense and help propel NEW YORK to the bounce-back victory.

This rare five-star FoxSheets coaching trend also backs the G-Men:

Tom Coughlin is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 29.3, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 5*).

The Bills continue to move the ball on offense and make huge plays on defense. Fred Jackson has already tallied 712 total yards in five games and has a chance to excel against the Giants’ struggling run defense, giving up 159 rushing YPG in the past three contests. Versatile second-year RB C.J. Spiller has also done a nice job, averaging 7.1 YPC. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw nine touchdowns in his first three games, but only has one TD toss in his past two contests.

Defensively, Buffalo has really not been able to stop anybody without forcing turnovers. The team ranks 30th in total defense (422 YPG) and is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the league at 138 YPG.

New York’s ground game has been a huge disappointment, as Brandon Jacobs is averaging 3.1 YPC and his team is not much better at 3.2 YPC (2nd-worst in NFL). In the past two games, the G-Men have only 123 rushing yards on 2.5 YPC. The Giants have been able to overcome this rushing deficiency with Eli Manning’s arm. Manning’s 9.1 yards per pass attempt is third-best in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Hakeem Nicks leads the team in receptions (28) and yards (412), and Victor Cruz is stretching opposing defenses with 20.3 yards per reception.

On defense, the Giants already have 18 sacks. Jason Pierre-Paul has seven of these sacks, while the finally healthy Osi Umenyiora has 3.5 sacks in his two games. New York has also shown a propensity for making big plays, as the team has forced at least two turnovers in four straight contests.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/10/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/09/11 8-*16-*0 33.33% -*4800 Detail
10/03/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/02/11 14-*14-*0 50.00% -*700 Detail
Totals 23-*33-*0 41.07% -*6650


Sunday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +3.5 500
Atlanta - Over 49.5 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco +4.5 500
Detroit - Under 45 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +6 500 ( DOG OF THE DAY )
Cincinnati - Over 40.5 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Washington +3 500
Washington - Under 46.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +14 500
Green Bay - Under 47.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -12.5 500
Pittsburgh - Over 40 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 49.5 500

Cleveland - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -6.5 500 POD
Oakland - Under 45 500

Houston - 4:05 PM ET Baltimore -7 500
Baltimore - Over 45 500 TOTAL OF THE DAY

New Orleans - 4:15 PM ET New Orleans -6 500
Tampa Bay - Over 49.5 500

Dallas - 4:15 PM ET New England -6 500 ( NBAB )
New England - Under 55.5 500

Minnesota - 8:20 PM ET Minnesota +1 500 SNS
Chicago - Under 41.5 500


*** NBAB = Not Betting Aganist Brady

*** SNS = Sunday Night Shocker

[Kaptain]

Thanks for all the info and the picks SDB.....

[StarDust Bum]

Howzit going Kapt.....good luck to you .......hope to get the man again........................slap the shit out of him....

[StarDust Bum]

Dolphins And 'Over' Get Early Nod On MNF

The Miami Dolphins (0-4) and New York Jets (2-3) will meet up in an AFC East divisional matchup with both teams looking to turn things around. Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, is scheduled for 8:30 (ET) on ESPN’s Monday Night Football.

Oddsmakers sent out the Jets as heavy 8-point home favorites, but the early wagering has knocked that number down by 1½ in most spots. The total has seen heavy action to the 'over' due to the early-season scoring in the NFL, settling in at 42½ across the board.

Sharp bettors may get back on New York once the status of center Nick Mangold becomes official, as he’s currently listed as probable with an ankle injury that has slowed him down for most of the season.

Part of the line movement away from the Jets also has to do with the reports all week that the clubhouse was in disarray following the club's third consecutive defeat at New England in Week 5. New York abruptly traded wide receiver Derrick Mason to Houston this past Wednesday after Mason publicly questioned the Jets play calling on offense.

New York GM Mike Tannenbaum denied that Mason's criticism had anything to do with the deal, noting it was "performance on the field" driving the trade that will see the Texans give up an undisclosed late-round draft pick in 2012.

Miami enters the game in relatively good health due to being one of six teams coming off the first bye week of the season, but starting quarterback Chad Henne (shoulder) is out for the season due to an injury suffered against the San Diego Chargers in Week 4.

Head coach Tony Sparano is certainly on the hot seat and is favored at many books to be the first coach fired this season, but he’s also 3-0 straight up on the road in this series. Simply fading the Dolphins due to the injury under center could be a mistake,

Matt Moore gained plenty of experience as a starter during his three years with the Carolina Panthers before hitting South Beach this offseason.

The good news for the Jets is they're playing a pretty bad Miami squad. The bad news is the Dolphins have had New York's number in the recent matchups. Miami has won four of the last five meetings, covering the spread in all four outright wins.

'Over' bettors in the head-to-head meetings were enjoying a 3-game win streak before the clash last December in New York.

Weather forecasts tomorrow suggest mostly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the mid-50s, while a slight breeze of 5-10 mph will be blowing out of the southwest.

The Jets will need to quickly refocus after Monday’s game, hosting the rested San Diego Chargers (4-1), who will come into the contest as the AFC West leaders.

Miami returns home for Week 7 action, hosting the Denver Broncos who spent their bye week getting Tim Tebow ready to assume the starting quarterback role. Adding to the hype of Tebow making his first start this season, the game at Sun Life Stadium will honor the Florida Gators' 2008 national championship team. Denver’s second-year quarterback was a member of that team that handed the Oklahoma Sooners a 24-14 loss in the BCS Championship Game on Jan. 8, 2009.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Dolphins at Jets

October 16, 2011


Two AFC East rivals on losing streaks meet up in New Jersey on Monday night to put a wrap on Week 6 as the Jets host the winless Dolphins. Miami is fresh off the bye week, but turns to backup quarterback Matt Moore to replace Chad Henne, who is out for the season with an injured shoulder. The Jets are riding a three-game skid, as Rex Ryan's club needs to get back on track in the competitive AFC playoff race.

New York (2-3) started the season with a pair of home victories over Dallas and Jacksonville, but the highway proved to be a disaster for the Jets with losses at Oakland, Baltimore, and New England. The Jets squandered a 17-7 lead to the Raiders in a 34-24 setback as three-point favorites back in Week 3. New York was listed as an underdog in the next two road defeats, as the Jets' vaunted defense allowed over 30 points against the Ravens and Patriots.

The Dolphins (0-4) are struggling to score points by averaging 17.2 ppg, while scoring just three touchdowns in the last three weeks. Henne went down with a shoulder injury in the loss at San Diego in Week 4 and elected for a season-ending surgery, putting an already anemic offense into the hands of Moore. The former Panthers' signal-caller threw for 167 yards and an interception in a 26-16 defeat to the Chargers as 6 ½-point underdogs, dropping Miami to 0-3-1 ATS this season.

The field-goal happy Dolphins have scored just one touchdown past the first quarter in the last three games against the Texans, Browns, and Chargers. Since allowing 38 points in the season opener to the explosive Patriots, Miami has cashed the 'under' in each of the previous three games.

This series has been owned by the road team recently by compiling a 6-2 SU/ATS mark since 2007. The Jets swept the season series that year when the Dolphins were a dreadful 1-15, including a 40-13 home loss in December. The away club won each meeting in 2008 when Brett Favre arrived with the Jets, as New York captured an opening day win in Miami. The Dolphins returned the favor at the Meadowlands with a 24-17 victory to clinch the AFC East title on the final day of the season as three-point 'dogs.

Miami won a pair of high-scoring contests in Ryan's first season with the Jets in 2009, including a Monday night triumph at Sun Life Stadium, 31-27 as three-point 'dogs. The road teams ruled again in 2010, as the Jets held off the Dolphins, 31-23 in a September primetime game. The next meeting was ugly as the Fins won 10-6 in New Jersey as five-point 'dogs despite throwing for only 30 yards.

The Jets' off-the-field bravado doesn't live up to its on-field performance on Monday nights in Ryan's tenure with a 1-3 SU/ATS mark since 2009. The only victory in this stretch came last season in a rainy night against Favre and the Vikings in a 29-20 front-door cover as four-point favorites. This is the third time in three seasons the Jets have endured a losing streak of three games, but New York is 2-0 SU/ATS while allowing six points in wins over the Raiders and Panthers (2009).

The Dolphins aren't much better under the Monday night lights in the Tony Sparano era with a 1-3 SU/ATS record, including the season-opening setback to New England as home 'dogs. In fact, the last time Miami won a road game on Monday night came back in 1999 as the Dolphins blew out the defending champion Broncos in Denver, 38-21 as 5 ½-point underdogs. It would also be fair to mention that was the first game of the post-John Elway era with the Broncos.

Under Sparano, the Dolphins have put together a 15-6 ATS record as road 'dogs, including three consecutive covers at New York. The Jets are less than profitable 7-9 ATS when laying points at home, as Gang Green has split the two games at Met Life Stadium this season.

The Jets are listed as seven-point favorites, while the total is set at 42 ½. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST.

[StarDust Bum]

Books bounce back

October 17, 2011

The Las Vegas sports books saw their two-week losing streak come to an end as they enjoyed some success with either a break even or small win on Saturday before finally getting some breaks Sunday with the NFL. However, most sports book directors got the scare of their career on Saturday when jeopardy from all the top ranked college football favorites came into one of the final games posted of the day, Oklahoma at Kansas.
It makes it much easier for bettors to do well when the teams the average bettors knows like LSU, Alabama, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Oregon all cover on a given weekend like they did last week. The last game -- for the biggest Saturday pay-day ever -- was Oklahoma laying 35.

“Our entire day hinged on the Oklahoma game where we were staring at a seven-figure loss had they covered,“ said MGM Resorts Vice President of race and sports Jay Rood. “Kansas saved the day for us.”

Reports from around the city were similar. Based on a sampling of those reports, it’s a fair assessment that Nevada sports books were looking at close to $5 million in losses collectively had Oklahoma scored just one more touchdown in their 47-17 win.

“We just haven’t been able to beat the top-5 teams this season,” said Rood. The bettors keep betting them no matter how high we make the line and they keep covering.”

Even though the favorites only went 23-26 with 17 underdogs winning outright, it was those key teams that everyone knows and love who play on television every week that did the damage going 9-1 against the spread.

“The big game that really hurt us and elevated the risk to where it got so high with Oklahoma was the Clemson game,“ said Rood talking about Clemson‘s 56-45 comeback win. "They were losing outright late in the game to Maryland, but still managed to cover the spread (-7 ½).”

After having such a scare Saturday and being beat up so bad recently by the public in the NFL, the sports books were hoping for a few games to break their way Sunday and they got it.

“It was a nice Sunday for us compared to the last two weeks, said Rood. “The Bengals covering was our best game of the morning. We got a lot of large money on the Colts Saturday night and Sunday morning before kickoff.”

The public was split on parlays with the Bengals with many finding reason to believe in the Colts. But the Sharps were all over the Colts as they pushed the game from Bengals minus-7 to 4 ½ and it took a late fumble return by the Bengals to make them a loser.

“The day ultimately came down to the big parlay teams not getting there collectively this week,“ said Rood. “Only the Packers got there early while the Patriots, Lions, Steelers and Saints didn’t cover.”

The game of the day was arguably a tie with the 49ers (+5) showing some strength on each side of the line as they simply out-powered the Lions 25-19 giving Detroit their first loss of the season. The other game saw the Patriots (-6 ½) come from behind to beat Dallas 20-16. The Cowboys have now played in 11 straight games where the margin of victory has been four points or less.

“Our best decision of the day was Tampa Bay winning outright (26-20). We had a run of Saints money pushing the game up from 4 to 6 ½ by kickoff, but it wasn‘t just that (the sharp plays), it was the final game of the afternoon with all kinds of parlay liability on it.”

Favorites ended up going 7-5 ATS for the day and when it’s those five high profile teams that don’t cover, it’s almost always a good day for the house. The only two outright winners, San Francisco (+200) and Tampa Bay (+250) paid out well for those who had the foresight to take them on the money-line.

PT’s Pub’s Sports Books (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Most everyone’s favorite local sports pub in Las Vegas just gave more reasons to solidify its status. They now have sports betting kiosks in all their bars. For the last four weeks PT’s has been slowly putting in the kiosks at all 36 of their locations in town. We’ve seen kiosks at a few places in town like Buffalo Wild Wings, but the major difference with PT’s is that you can actually wager with cash on the spot and don’t have to set up an account at Leroy’s like the kiosks at BWW require.

The sports lines are powered by Leroy’s and they offer everything you can bet at the book, including parlay cards. The convenience of sports betting just got easier than ever. There’s a PT’s close to where ever you may live across the valley. How many times have you got up late and just didn’t feel like driving to your closest sports book? Or how many times have you been sitting in a bar wanting to make a half-time bet, but not wanting to risk the drive because of having one too many?

The best part about it all is the PT’s staff has completely bought into it. It’s not an uncommon thing to see employees get angry with change or having new additional duties added to their daily work routine, but not the PT’s people. They’ve welcomed it with open arms, likely because they know their involvement in it could give them more monetary gain through gratuities.

I checked out 2 PT’s locations and played it off like I didn’t know what I was doing and needed help. Each one of them walked me through the entire process in almost the same routine showing me that the executives at PT’s made it objective number one to get the staff thoroughly trained and ready for sports bettors.

Some of local sports books probably aren’t going to be too happy with the new competition, but the reality is that those who want a sports book environment with every game on TV and big crowds to accentuate moments of games will always go to the big books. It’s not always about convenience. For most people that frequent sports books, it‘s about the vibe of the book that is attractive, something that can never be recreated in a bar.

Wildfire Sports Book (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Since my girlfriend is in the Great Giveaway contest and the contest is now available through Station Casino’s smaller properties, I now find myself being dragged with her to the Wildfire on Sunset every Saturday night. Turning in her selections, a rather simple process, actually turns into two or three hour session as I eventually get captivated watching games at the bar.

What turned out to be a reluctant 5 minute drive from my house has now become something I look forward to because the sports book and bar is very clean, all the games are on -- I never have to ask for a game because it’s already up -- and the staff is super friendly. As if that wasn’t good enough, I also get the same deal with $1 Buds and Hot dogs that all the Station properties have. It’s one of the best kept secrets in town and worth a visit for a sports fan who is looking for a night out on the cheap where the environment isn‘t.

[StarDust Bum]

Win Total Update

October 17, 2011


Six weeks into the NFL season and a handful of teams are on their way to eclipsing the posted win total from Las Vegas in August. We'll detail ten teams that are on the fast track to finishing either 'over' or 'under' their win total, including the surprising Bengals.

Cincinnati (4-2)
Win total: 6 ½

Many sharps pounded the 'under' on Marvin Lewis' team when this number came out, assuming Carson Palmer was not going to be the quarterback. Rookie Andy Dalton has responded just fine by leading the Bengals to four wins through six games. Cincinnati hasn't played Baltimore or Pittsburgh yet, while taking care of business against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis (a combined 3-14).

The Bengals take on four teams that have won two games or less after the bye with matchups against the Seahawks, Browns, Rams, and Cardinals. In spite of the four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals' defense can carry this team to three more wins and an 'over,'

Buffalo (4-2)
Win total: 5 ½

The Bills weren't thought to do much inside the AFC East this season after three straight last-place finishes. Buffalo needed two rallies at home against Oakland and New England, which Bills' backers will certainly remember at the end of the season. Chan Gailey's club is 9-5 ATS the last 14 games since last November, including a 5-2 ATS mark at home.

After taking on the Jets and Redskins at home following the bye week, the Bills hit the road for four games in five weeks. Things don't get easier on the highway the rest of the way against the Jets, Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots. Grabbing two more wins isn't asking too much with a pair of games against Miami and home contests with Tennessee and Denver.

Detroit (5-1)
Win total: 7 ½

The popular pick before the season in the win total game was the Lions, who were expected to do big things in 2011. Detroit has held up that end of the bargain with five wins in the first five games prior to Sunday's loss to San Francisco. Jim Schwartz's squad will no doubt obliterate this number, but the Lions are in excellent shape to be in the playoffs.

Detroit will likely be favored in four of its final five home games with the exception of undefeated Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The road slate for the Lions isn't exactly a cakewalk with games at Chicago, New Orleans, Oakland, and Green Bay from mid-November on.

Green Bay (6-0)
Win total: 11 ½

The Packers are on cruise-control right now after picking up their fourth straight win by double-digits with Sunday's 24-3 blowout of the winless Rams. Green Bay is sitting all alone atop the NFC North following Detroit's loss, while the reigning champions look like the team to beat in the NFL.

The schedule is working out for the Packers to win at least 12 games, while finishing 14-2 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Green Bay takes on struggling Minnesota twice, while battling Oakland, Chicago, and Tampa Bay at home.

Indianapolis (0-6)
Win total: 9 ½

This bet is pretty much sealed shut if you wagered the 'under' on the Colts. Obviously, this number would have been much different if the news of Peyton Manning's neck situation was released a month earlier. Indianapolis has hung around in several defeats, but the loss of Manning is looming much bigger than anyone thought.

The Colts may be looking at the first pick of the draft following nine straight playoff appearances, as Indianapolis has three games remaining against Jacksonville and Carolina, which could cost them in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Miami (0-5)
Win total: 7 ½

The circus act in South Florida continues to provide follies for Dolphins' fans after scoring 16 points or less in each of the last three games. Miami is without Chad Henne following the quarterback's shoulder injury at San Diego put him out for the remainder of the season. The Dolphins have failed to win more than seven games in four of the last five seasons heading into 2011, but it looks like Tony Sparano's club will finish 'under' the total.

The only really good opportunities for the Dolphins to win at home come against the Broncos and Redskins, while Miami still faces the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Patriots the rest of the way.

Oakland (4-2)
Win total: 7

The Raiders are one meltdown away from possibly being 5-1 and sitting atop the AFC West. Oakland will have to settle for second place at the moment, while taking on Kansas City and Denver at home the next two games. Hue Jackson's team should break the seven-win plateau, while the Silver and Black shoots for a playoff berth in the loaded AFC.

Oakland heads to Minnesota, Miami, and Kansas City over the final two months of the season, while battling division-leading San Diego twice in this span after sweeping the Chargers last season.

St. Louis (0-5)
Win total: 7

It's hard to win games when teams can't score points. That seems like a simple theory, but the Rams have tallied just 49 points in five losses, by far the worst offense in the league. The early-season schedule wasn't going to be easy for St. Louis with games against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Redskins, and Packers. The schedule eases up in the second half, but eclipsing the 'over' of 7 will be difficult.

St. Louis takes on all six division opponents in the final nine weeks, while taking on Cleveland and surprising Cincinnati in that stretch. The task for the Rams to make up five games on the division-leading 49ers will be tough unless St. Louis can score points quickly.

San Francisco (5-1)
Win total: 7 ½

The 49ers were expected to big things last season and failed miserably, but were left for dead to start this season in the awful NFC West. San Francisco won five of its first six games with the only loss coming in overtime to Dallas. The schedule only gets easier for Jim Harbaugh's club, who has already made trips out East to Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Detroit.

The Niners take on the Cardinals and Rams twice, while still heading to Seattle in Week 16. Outside of the division, San Francisco battles Cleveland and Washington, while trying to steal a home win over Pittsburgh in Week 15.

Tennessee (3-2)
Win total: 7

The current leader in the AFC South after six weeks is the surprising Titans, who play the next three games at home. Tennessee is 2-0 at home with wins over Baltimore and Denver under its belt, while owning an 0-1 record inside the topsy-turvy AFC South by losing at Jacksonville in the opening week.

The Titans battle the Texans, Colts, and Bengals at LP Field over the next three weeks, while hosting the Bucs and Jaguars down the stretch. Tennessee has manageable road games at Carolina, Atlanta, Buffalo, and Indianapolis, as the Titans close out the season in a potential division championship at Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Dolphins at Jets

MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-4)

at NEW YORK JETS (2-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -6.5, Total: 42.5

AFC East foes Miami and New York try to stop long losing skids when they match up on Monday night at the New Meadowlands. The Dolphins are 0-4 this year, while the Jets have allowed 98 points (32.7 PPG) during three straight defeats.

There’s no reason to give up on the Dolphins just because QB Chad Henne (shoulder) is out for the season. Back-up Matt Moore is only a slight downgrade, and the strength of this team was never the offense anyway. The Jets continue to search for an identity on offense, and they had just 255 yards in Week 5 against a Patriots defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. And consider that Miami is 7-3 ATS on the road the past two seasons, and it has won three road games in a row, SU and ATS, against the Jets. The Dolphins might not leave New Jersey with a win, but the Jets offense is in no shape to blow them out. The pick here is MIAMI, which is 17-8 ATS (68%) away from home under head coach Tony Sparano.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support picking the Dolphins:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. (80-43 since 1983.) (65%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*).

N.Y. JETS are 5-18 ATS (21.7%, -14.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992. The average score was N.Y. JETS 17.7, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 2*).

The Over is 7-4 (64%) in the past 11 meetings between these rivals, and this four-star FoxSheets trend also likes the OVER to occur on Monday night.

N.Y. JETS are 12-1 OVER (92.3%, +10.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N.Y. JETS 25.6, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 4*).

Moore’s career numbers are subpar (6.7 YPA, 16 TD, 18 INT), but he carries a respectable 7-6 record as a starter. For him to improve upon that record, he will look for Brandon Marshall to get open against a great secondary. Marshall torched the Jets for 166 yards on 10 catches in last year’s meeting in Miami, but New York held him to two receptions for 16 yards when Marshall visited New Meadowlands last December. Although the news in Miami has been about the loss of Chad Henne, the offense is expected to get a huge boost with the healthy return of RB Daniel Thomas. The rookie missed the last game with a hamstring injury, but is expected to play on Monday. He has 202 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC in two games this season.

The defense is a little banged up as S Chris Clemons (hamstring), CB Vontae Davis (hamstring) and DE Tony McDaniel (hand) are all listed as questionable for Monday’s game. Miami is allowing 307 passing YPG, which ranks second-to-last in the league. The Dolphins have also done a poor job of creating turnovers with just two takeaways in four games this year.

QB Mark Sanchez has had an up-and-down season, throwing for 886 yards (295 YPG) and 6 TD in his first three games, but then tallying 285 yards (143 YPG) and 2 TD in his past two contests. Although he is 1-3 in his career versus Miami, and completing less than half of his pass attempts, Sanchez has thrown 6 TD and just one interception in these four meetings. New York’s ground game continues to be atrocious, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 76 rushing YPG. The team’s top two rushers, Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, are both averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

New York’s run-stop unit hasn’t been much better, with opponents gaining 135 YPG against the team’s 26th-ranked run defense. The team has surrendered 166 rushing YPG during its three-game losing skid. The Jets secondary remains an elite unit, as their 203 passing YPG allowed is fifth-best in the NFL.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Miami +7 500

N.Y. Jets - Over 41.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp action moves Dolphins-Jets over/under line down

Capping what could be called “Revenge of the Under,” the total for tonight’s Dolphins-Jets game at New Meadowlands Stadium is falling fast.

MGM Mirage opened the total at 43 and has dropped it to 41.5. The latest half-point move came after a professional bettor placed a $10,000 max play on the under.

Unders are 9-2-1 in Week 6 after starting the season 28-48-1.

At the Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook, John Avello also cut the total to 41.5. But he said it had nothing to do with Sunday’s low-scoring games.

“A lot of it has to do with the quarterback switch,” Avello told ***********, referring to Matt Moore replacing the injured Chad Henne. “The Dolphins were really opening it up there the first few games, and now I think it will be a more conservative approach.

“And you have to think the Jets defense is going to show up at some point,” he added. “They’ve looked awful.”

Most books opened the Jets as 7.5- or 8-point favorites, only to take a lot of Miami action. The spread fell to 6.5 before settling at 7, though you can find 7.5 if you shop around.

Avello said he’s still holding more Miami money, while MGM Mirage’s Jeff Stoneback called it an even split.

However, Stoneback will be pulling for the Dolphins thanks to some large parlays on the Jets.

“We’ve got a couple six-teamers (40-to-1) and a couple five-teamers (20-to-1) with the Jets,” he told ***********. “Throw $1,000 on those and they add up.”

The game is drawing average action for a Monday night.

Stoneback expects most of the late players to back the Jets.

“They are the public team, the name team, and they’re desperate,” he said. “People like to jump on a team when they have to win.”

Miami has won three straight games at New York. This might be the Jets’ last chance to beat coach Tony Sparano, who is on the hot seat. Owner Stephen Ross has not guaranteed Sparano will last the season.

“If the Jets defense finally shows up,” Avello said, “everybody will be watching ‘Dancing with the Stars’ before this game is over.”

[StarDust Bum]

Monday Night Debate: Who'll cover the spread?

Well, it may not be the best Monday night matchup we've seen this season, but at least there are a lot of compelling storylines. This line was bouncing around a touchdown and it's at New York -6.5 at most books as of Sunday evening. Ashton Grewal gives his three reasons why the Dolphins could cover while Ryan Stetson gives his take on the Jets.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6.5, 42.5)

Why the New York Jets will cover

Because Nick Mangold is expected to play

Center Nick Mangold could easily be the most valuable player on this offense.

His high ankle sprain kept him out of some practices this week and he’s still officially questionable in the injury report, but word is he will play against Miami.

That’s obviously great news for Jets supporters. Mangold holds the line together and at least gives quarterback Mark Sanchez a fighting chance when he drops back in the pocket. Chances are he won’t be 100 percent, but he’s twice the center backup Colin Baxter is.

“He’s a guy that’s been around, played a lot of football, he makes all our calls and he’s a heck of a football player,” running back LaDainian Tomlinson told reporters “ I mean he dominates the guys that he faces every week, so he does make a difference.”

Because New York's special teams will have another huge game

New York’s special teams could give the team a real boost.

Joe McKnight is averaging a ridiculous 45.6 yards per kickoff return, which is about 10 yards better than anybody else in the league. You can pretty much pencil him in for at least one big play every time he suits up. Last weekend he took a kick back 88 yards at New England and also had a 107-yard return for a touchdown against Baltimore.

Meanwhile, the Jets allow the second fewest yards per kickoff return thanks to Nick Folk’s leg. With the club’s total offense checking in at 29th on the totem pole, the special teams will need another big effort.

Because they are desperate for a win

Rex Ryan always insists on letting his players speak their minds, but there’s probably been more negative chatter in his locker room than he’d like right now.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is getting roasted right now about the team’s struggling offense and Santonio Holmes probably took it a little far when he called out the club’s offensive line earlier this week.

The Jets need to give Mark Sanchez more time in the pocket to make this offense go – anybody can see that. The positive side of his outburst is that it highlights the pressure this team is feeling right now. They know they have to turn things around in a hurry and this is their big chance to prove their critics wrong.

This is Ryan’s time and he’ll have the Jets fired up for this one.

Why the Dolphins cover

Because the Dolphins are coming off the bye

Did you read that wicked statistic Jeff Rake mentioned in our article about the bye week? Over the last 10 years, teams coming off the bye were 168-141-8 against the spread entering this season.

The ability to have two weeks to get healthy and game plan for one opponent is a huge advantage. It’s also big for the Phins, who are going through a change a quarterback. The extra week of snaps with the first-string offense will be a bonus for Matt Moore.

Because the Dolphins aren’t playing at home

Okay, I know the Fish are 0-2 on the highway but Tony Sparano’s crew just plays better away from Miami. The Phins are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 away games.

It’s got to help when you don’t have to worry about the boo birds when you’re playing this crappy. Besides, the Jets fans are fed up with Mark Sanchez and could turn on the third-year QB if he comes out with a sloppy first quarter.

Because the Jets want to hit each other in the mouth, not their opponents

The bricking in Gang Green’s locker room goes beyond wideout Santonio Holmes and offensive lineman Brandon Moore. The defense is fed up of running out onto the field with bad field position because of shitty offensive possessions that are becoming the norm, not the exception.

The Jets want to run the ball but the prima dona receivers want the rock more. And Mark Sanchez isn’t elevating his game; it actually seems like he’s regressing. The frustration will boil over if things don’t go well early on for the home side.

[StarDust Bum]

Recent Trends | In DepthMiami:

Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 games on fieldturf.
Under is 8-2 in MIA last 10 road games.
Under is 6-2 in MIA last 8 vs. AFC.

N.Y. Jets:

Over is 7-1 in NYJ last 8 vs. AFC East.
Over is 22-7 in NYJ last 29 games overall.
Over is 21-7-1 in NYJ last 29 vs. AFC.

Head to Head:

Road team is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
MIA are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 meetings.