The Bum's Week # 6 NFL Best Bets 10/16-10/17 !

[StarDust Bum]

Jaguars, Steelers Renew Rivalry In Pittsburgh

The underdog has covered the spread in the last seven series clashes.
A little-known rivalry is about to be revisited on Sunday in Week 6 of the NFL when the Jacksonville Jaguars head over to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Kickoff from Heinz Field is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with coverage being handled by CBS.

Currently on the Don Best odds screen, the Steelers are a big 12-point favorite with a low total set at 40.

It’s time for a little history lesson. Fans and bettors across the National Football League may not be quite aware, but this has been a fantastic series for years. There have been plenty games decided by two points or less, a fantastic playoff game, and don’t forget that they used to be division rivals in the old AFC Central.

In 2007, Jacksonville became the first team ever to win in Pittsburgh twice in one season. When these defenses were both great, they once played a game in 2006 that ended 9-0.

However, these squads haven’t met since 2008 when in another great battle between the two, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the final two minutes of play.

Getting back to the present, the Steelers come into this game at 3-2 and could be exactly where they want to be, not getting much attention and hearing that they are “old.” Well, they are a little old. They also have offensive line issues.

Pittsburgh also battled those same issues into two Super Bowl appearances the last three years with one win.

That decrepit defense is ranked No. 2 in the NFL and Troy Polamalu always needs to be accounted for as he is one of the best players in football.

Last week, Roethlisberger just did what he always does. With a hurt foot he only threw five touchdown passes against the Tennessee Titans in a blowout that was not as close as the final 38-17 score.

In that same game they were without starting running back Rashard Mendenhall and his replacement, Jonathon Dwyer, went for over 100 yards on the ground with 76 of those coming on one run.

For the Jaguars who come in at 1-4, it’s very simple. Their defense has played well enough to win every game this year – yes, even the 32-3 New York Jets blowout – and their offense has not.

The ‘D’ has held four out of five opponents to under 300 offensive yards, the one exception being the New Orleans Saints. A week ago, leading the Cincinnati Bengals 20-16 with five minutes left, punter Matt Turk kicked a 22-yarder from his own end zone into strong winds leading to a 23-yard game-winning TD drive for Cincy. Then, the game ended on a wacky lateral play by the Jags’ offense which the Bengals picked up for another score with zeroes on the clock.

Do not be fooled; that score says the Jaguars gave up 30 points, but who would you blame?

Turk has since been released and replaced by Nick Harris.

Rookie QB Blaine “Gabbo” Gabbert has been exactly what a rookie is expected to be. He shines brightly at moments and doesn’t in others. He is progressing, but Jacksonville’s offense is last in yards per game and only musters 11.8 points per outing. Despite all of this, star running back Maurice Jones-Drew is having an amazing year averaging 5.0 yards per carry and he is fourth in the NFL in rushing.

Linebacker James Harrison for the Steelers is still likely to be out a while with a broken right orbital bone and nose tackle Casey Hampton looks to be questionable. Mendenhall continues to make progress with his hamstring.

The best news for the Jags is that they could have their best pass rusher, DE Aaron Kampman, play for the first time all season. Surprising news was that LB Darryl Smith did not practice Wednesday. Pro-Bowl special teamers Kassim Osgood and Montell Owens should also return.

Jacksonville has been one of the worst teams against the spread, going 1-4 like their straight up record. However, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this series and the Jags are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in their last five matchups.

Early weather reports suggest temperatures in the 60s with a chance of rain.

[StarDust Bum]

Buffalo Bills Have Tough Test At NY Giants

The Buffalo Bills have their toughest road test to date when they visit the New York Giants in an intra-state affair on Sunday. CBS will broadcast from MetLife Stadium at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Bills are mostly 3-point ‘dogs at Don Best, but can be found at 3 ½. The NFL betting total is 50-points, with the teams a combined 8-1-1 ‘over’ this season.

Buffalo (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) is one of the NFL’s best stories after a 4-12 campaign last year and not breaking .500 since 2004. The Bills' success has been primarily at home, going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) including 18 and 21 point comeback wins respectively over Oakland (38-35) and New England (34-31).

Last week’s home game against Philly also had some good fortune. Quarterback Michel Vick (four picks) decided he liked to throw to Bills players as much as his own, although one wasn’t really his fault. Buffalo held off an Eagles rally for a 31-24 win as 3-point underdogs.

The 55 combined points scored last week went ‘over’ the 52 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 for Buffalo this season with the team scoring 32.8 PPG (ranked third) and allowing 24 PPG (ranked 15th).

Coach Chan Gailey’s guys still need to prove themselves on the road. There was an opening 41-7 rout of the Chiefs, but they’re a shell of the team that made the playoffs last year. Buffalo’s only other road game was Week 4 at Cincinnati, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead to lose 23-20 as 3-point favorites.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a great season overall (96.4 quarterback rating, ranked seventh), but the Harvard graduate hasn’t generated much production the second half of the last two games. That can’t happen again Sunday.

Fitzpatrick and the Bills will be without deep-threat receiver Donald Jones (ankle), who is out several weeks. They were thin at receiver before the injury and it could mean more carries for running back Fred Jackson (480 rushing yards, third in the NFL).

New York will try to load up more at the line of scrimmage, but its run defense has really struggled the last three weeks (159 YPG). Injuries have played a part and defensive ends Osi Umenyiora (knee) and Justin Tuck (groin) are both questionable this week.

Buffalo is also expected to be without left tackle Demetrius Bell (shoulder) and linebacker Chris Kelsay (calf). The latter is listed as doubtful for now.

The Giants (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are reeling a bit after a 36-25 home loss to Seattle last week as 10-point favorites. That’s a game playoff contenders can’t lose and it also ended a nice streak of three consecutive wins and covers.

Quarterback Eli Manning threw for 420 yards and three TDs, but also had three interceptions. The final one was inside the Seattle 10-yard line late in the contest and returned for the game-sealing score.

One good thing about Manning is he has a short memory and won’t be afraid to attack the Bills defense. He has a 102.3 quarterback rating, tied for fourth-best in the NFL and has thrown 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions, even with the three miscues last week.

Manning needs to play well every game thanks to a rushing attack that’s just 28th in the league (83.8 YPG). The team does have a solid running tandem in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, but the latter missed last week (knee) and is questionable.

Offensive line is another concern with center David Baas (neck) missing Seattle and questionable. Guard Chris Snee is also questionable after suffering a concussion last game. The Bills run defense ranks 29th (138.4 YPG) overall, so pounding the rock still has to be in New York’s game-plan.

The Giants did cover their only other home game this season, 28-16 as 7-point favorites over St. Louis in Week 2. However, they’re 0-6 in their last six home games as a favorite of 3-points or less.

The ‘over’ is 1-0-1 in New York’s home game this year and 5-1-1 in its last seven there.

The teams haven’t met since 2007 when the Giants won 38-21 in Buffalo. Rain the next few days is expected to give way to clear skies on Sunday, with temps into the 60s.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts Search For First Win At Cincinnati Bengals

The Indianapolis Colts (0-5) have officially entered the Andrew Luck sweepstakes as they travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Paul Brown Stadium. Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

Indianapolis has lost its first five games of the season due to starting quarterback Peyton Manning being sidelined with a neck injury, which has now fueled speculation of the team’s quest in grabbing the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. The Colts know that Stanford’s junior quarterback is a special player and a perfect replacement for an aging player that was chosen first overall by the franchise during the 1998 draft.

Las Vegas oddsmakers are staying on top of the situation, placing the Colts as 7-point road underdogs this weekend, while the total has moved up three points to 41.

The two teams in this series are separated by a little more than 100 miles down Interstate 74 and the Colts have had success in this series, posting an 8-2 record in games played in Cincinnati. Indianapolis scored a 23-17 win as 6 ½-point home favorites in last year’s meeting, even though the team was out-gained by a 341-256 margin.

The final tally on the scoreboard stayed well below the posted total of 47.

Curtis Painter is expected to make his third career start after throwing for 277 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 28-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as a 1-point home favorite. Veteran signal-caller Kerry Collins (concussion) hasn’t been cleared to participate in a game as of yet, but this week’s availability will be determined Friday.

The Colts were unable to hold a 24-7 second-quarter lead, giving up 194 rushing yards and losing the time-of-possession battle by a wide 33:07-to-26:53 margin.

Bettors will find that the Colts are still 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, while going over the total in four of their last five games in that situation.

Cincinnati has pulled off consecutive fourth-quarter comebacks to push its record above .500, picking up a 30-20 win as 1-point road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars in its latest effort.

The Bengals' strength is their defense, ranking first in the league in fewest yards allowed. Cincinnati's current 279.6 yards per game average would rank sixth in franchise history. The unit’s effort also has them sitting atop the rankings of fewest yards allowed per offensive play (4.52).

Rookie Andy Dalton is making quite a name for himself due to late-game heroics, but he’s still possesses a 78.7 passer rating, which sits 13th among AFC quarterbacks. He completed 21-of-33 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns with an interception last week.

Running back Cedric Benson continues to play a big part in the Bengals’ offense, carrying the ball 101 times, which is the second-most in the league with an average of 4.0 yards a carry. Benson is still in the process of appealing a 3-game suspension due to an offseason arrest, but the appeal is still pending and he's expected to be in the lineup this week.

Early weather forecasts in the Cincinnati area suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s.

[StarDust Bum]

Cam Newton, Panthers Visit Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have beaten up on the Carolina Panthers over the past few seasons, but they will be hosting a much different team on Sunday when the NFC South rivals square off at the Georgia Dome.

Rookie quarterback Cam Newton has made the Panthers (1-4) a much more dangerous team offensively, and he alone should be able to help them top the 10 points Carolina scored in each of last year’s meetings.

FOX begins its broadcast of the game at 1:00 p.m. (ET). The Falcons (2-3) opened as 6-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 51. Early betting action already pushed the line down two points in Carolina’s favor to +4.

The Panthers are currently ranked No. 22 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll while Atlanta comes in and No. 15.

The Panthers lost to the Falcons twice last year by identical 31-10 scores but have averaged 23.2 points this season, with poor weather conditions in Week 3 the only thing that has stopped them from scoring 21 or more. Newton ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,610 passing yards, although he has six interceptions to go along with his seven touchdown passes.

He has added another five touchdowns on the ground, tied for the second-most of any player in the league.

The big problem for Carolina has been defense, or a lack thereof, in four of the first five games. The team is surrendering 26.4 points and 366.2 yards per game. Outside of a 16-10 home win over Jacksonville, the Panthers have given up 28 points or more in their four losses.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled to score in every other game this year, a strange trend for the defending division champions who have already equaled last season’s loss total after finishing 13-3 in 2010. The Falcons have averaged 32.5 points in their two wins and have not scored more than 14 in their three losses.

Like Newton, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan also has seven touchdown passes and six picks after finishing last year with 28 and nine, respectively. The major difference obviously is that Ryan is in his fourth season and seems to be taking a step back.

Ryan has averaged nearly 221 yards per game in six career meetings with Carolina, throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Falcons are 1-4 against the spread this campaign, but 4-1 ATS in the past five games against the Panthers with the ‘over’ going 3-0-2. Carolina has covered four straight this season despite losing three of them straight up, with the ‘over' going 4-1 overall so far in 2011.

[StarDust Bum]

Unbeaten Packers Host Winless St. Louis Rams

What a difference a year and a week makes for the Green Bay Packers and St. Louis Rams heading into their battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday.

In Week 17 of last season, the Rams and Packers both needed to win in order to get into the playoffs. Green Bay (5-0) accomplished that goal, ended up winning the Super Bowl and has not been defeated since then while St. Louis (0-4) lost and is still searching for its first victory of 2011.

This week's contest is scheduled for a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff with television coverage provided by FOX. The Packers opened as 14 ½-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 48. They have been bet up as high as 15 ½ at some sportsbooks with the total sitting steady.

The Rams are coming off their bye week and still had to sign two players on Monday who could play roles against Green Bay. They have already lost wide receiver Danny Amendola (elbow) and cornerback Bradley Fletcher (knee) for the season due to injuries, so they brought in WR Nick Miller and CB Brian Jackson to help fill in and add depth on the roster.

St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford has regressed in his second year so far, completing less than 50 percent of his passes with three touchdown passes and one interception in four games. He is tied for the NFL lead in taking sacks with 18 for combined losses of 116 yards, and fumbles lost with four despite playing one less game than most players through Week 5.

The same can’t be said for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who leads all signal callers with a 122.9 passer rating. Rodgers has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes and remains on pace to break Drew Brees’ league record.

He has also thrown 14 touchdown passes with only two interceptions for the defending NFL champs, who sit atop the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

Green Bay is coming off a 25-14 victory at Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, rallying back from an early 14-0 deficit by scoring 25 unanswered points. Rodgers threw for 396 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks while running backs James Starks and Ryan Grant were limited to 58 yards on 19 carries.

The Rams are ranked No. 26 in the Linemakers Poll and have dropped three of the last four meetings with the Packers both straight up and against the spread. They have also failed to cover any of their games this season. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the past six games between the teams and is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last eight at home with the team going 7-1 ATS.

The weather forecast for Lambeau is cloudy with showers possible and a high temperature of 62.

[StarDust Bum]

Brees, Saints Take On Buccaneers In Tampa

Drew Brees is second in the National Football League with 1,769 passing yards.
Shades of 1976 at Tampa Bay?

Forgive those of us with long memories who recall the expansion Bucs of thirty-five years ago, during their inaugural campaign in the long-ago "Bicentennial Year" in which they actually competed in the AFC West. Although the division designation was rather meaningless that season as Tampa Bay played each AFC team once, plus fellow expansionist Seattle, in a 14-game schedule. The Bucs flip-flopped with the Seahawks the following year when Tampa Bay moved to the NFC.

In 1976, however, the Buccaneers lost all 14 of their games for coach John McKay, who had left a wildly successful college job at Southern Cal to take over Hugh Culverhouse’s new team. The Bucs absorbed some bad beatings along the way that year, including 42-17, 48-13, 34-0, 42-0, and 49-16 drubbings.

None of those, however, were as bad as the 48-3 pasting that Tampa Bay absorbed last Sunday at San Francisco, which equaled the worst loss in franchise history.

So it figures to be an angry Bucs team, if nothing else, that will tee it up at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday against New Orleans. The visiting Saints are a 4½-point favorite at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with the ‘total’ at a fairly solid 49½ for the battle off of Dale Mabry Highway. Kickoff is scheduled at 4:15 (ET) p.m. with FOX handling the coverage in some markets.

What happened last week at Candlestick Park, anyway?

Perhaps it was the short week after the previous Monday’s game against the Colts, coupled with the cross-country trip to the Bay Area. Whatever, Tampa Bay was awful last week, posting a season-low 272 yards and guilty of three turnovers, not to mention a few embarrassing unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in the late going, including one against coach Raheem Morris.

Prospects for a quick turnaround at home have been dulled just a bit by an injury list that could claim a couple of key Buc components. Leading rusher LeGarrette Blount (279 yards) was knocked out of last week’s game vs. the 49ers with a sore knee and is a doubtful participant for Sunday’s action. Earnest Graham, Kregg Lumpkin, and Allen Bradford would likely share carries in his absence.

Meanwhile, perhaps more damaging is the potential absence of DT Gerald McCoy, who was also KO’d at Candlestick with an ankle injury. With McCoy in tow, Tampa Bay had been defending the run rather effectively until last week, ranking a respectable 11th in NFL rush defense stats. But the floodgates opened with McCoy was sidelined last week, as San Francisco bulldozed for a whopping 213 yards on the ground.

Although the Saints are more renowned for their passing offense and QB Drew Brees, they have effectively balanced their attack with the run, which ranks in the upper half (14th) of league rushing stats. RBs Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Alabama rookie Mark Ingram have done an effective job complementing Brees in the early going.

As for Brees, he looks as good as ever, second in the NFL with 1,769 passing yards, and having thrown for better than 350 yards in each of his last three games. Brees can become the first passer in NFL history to throw for 350 yards or more in four straight games if he can do it again on Sunday vs. the Bucs. Although that task could be a bit daunting, considering how Tampa Bay has held Brees under 300 yards passing in the last five meetings (Bress averaging 240 yards through the air in those clashes).

Still, it is no surprise that Brees, Sproles, and the others are contributing to the NFL’s second-ranked offense at 469 ypg. New Orleans’ 31.4 ppg also ranks fifth in league scoring average.

The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, but they enter Raymond James Stadium full of confidence after winning their last four games to pull a game ahead of the Bucs and two up on the Falcons in the NFC South. New Orleans had to rally to beat Cam Newton and Carolina last week, but Brees was never better than when leading a late drive to beat the clock in Charlotte, with a 6-yard TD pass to Thomas with just 50 seconds to play proving the winning points in an exciting 30-27 win.

Recent trends between these two have been interesting, with the teams splitting the season series each of the past three years. Moreover, the road team has won each of the four meetings the past two seasons. Brees has been particularly effective at Raymond James, throwing three TD passes in each of the last two visits as the Saints won and covered by a combined 69-13 score their last two at Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Bucs have won as underdogs each of the past two years at the Superdome.

Note, however, that Tampa Bay has provided no pointspread value lately at home, standing a lowly 4-17-1 vs. the line its last 22 outings at Raymond James Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

Philadelphia Eagles In Must-Win At Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins aren’t getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a crucial NFC East matchup on Sunday.

The game opened as a pick 'em, but Washington is now getting 1 ½-points at Don Best. The NFL betting total is 47-47 ½-points. FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from FedEx Field.

Many in the betting public don’t believe Washington is as good as its 3-1 straight up record or Philadelphia as bad as its 1-4 mark. The Don Best Linemakers Poll agrees with Washington tied for 18th (91.6 rating) and Philly 12th (94.4 rating).

The Redskins lead the NFC East and are 3-1 against the spread as well. Critics point out that two of their wins were over Arizona (22-21) and St. Louis (17-10), teams with a combined 1-8 SU record. The other win (28-14) was against a schizophrenic Giants squad.

Coach Mike Shanahan has made some bold moves after a sub-par 6-10 SU (8-6-2 ATS) debut last year. It began with jettisoning underwhelming quarterback Donovan McNabb and choosing Rex Grossman to replace him over John Beck.

Grossman doesn’t wow anyone with his numbers (78.7 quarterback rating, ranked 26th). He has six touchdown throws versus five interceptions, plus another two lost fumbles. He must play better as the competition level rises as the team’s 20.8 PPG ranks just tied for 21st in the NFL.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 Washington’s last three games with an average total points scored of 34.7.

Washington has done a nice job in the running game (126.8 YPG, ranked eighth) and Ryan Torain should be the featured back after making his season debut at St. Louis last game and rushing for 135 yards. Tim Hightower and Roy Helu are two other solid options.

The Eagles run defense has been a sieve, allowing 140.2 YPG (ranked 30th) and this area will be tested early and often by Shanahan.

The Eagles (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) are finding new ways to lose and are a huge bust as one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites. An opening week triumph at St. Louis (31-13) was followed by losses to Atlanta (35-31), the Giants (29-16) and San Francisco (24-23). They led each of those games in the fourth quarter before imploding.

Last week’s game at Buffalo had a reverse feel. The Eagles fell behind 28-7 in the third quarter due to turnovers, but stormed back to make it a game, ultimately losing 31-24. They were actually 3-point favorites and are now 0-4 ATS in the last four.

The 55 combined points scored last game went ‘over’ the 52 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Philly’s road games this year and 11-1 in its last 12 away overall.

The Buffalo game was considered a ‘must win’ heading in and that means this week is a ‘really must win.’ Philly certainly can’t afford to fall 3.5-games back of Washington in the division.

Quarterback Mike Vick was the goat last game with four picks, but he also showed how dangerous he is with 315 passing yards and 90 more on the ground. His quarterback rating (85.3) is just 14th in the NFL and his eight TDs versus seven interceptions is a big reason why.

Vick’s 318 rushing yards this season (8.4 yards per carry), combined with LeSean McCoy’s 443 (5.8 per carry) make Philly the league’s top rushing team (165.6 YPG). The Redskins are giving up just 84.5 YPG on the ground (ranked sixth), but they haven’t faced a quarterback like Vick who can break contain on any play.

Overall, the Eagles are averaging 445.6 in total yards (ranked third) and allowing 352 YPG (ranked 15th). If they can improve on their -10 turnover margin and capitalize offensively in the red-zone, then this is still a team to be reckoned with.

Philadelphia offensive tackle Jason Peters (hamstring) and defensive end Trent Cole (calf) are both doubtful. Washington cornerback Phillip Buchanon returns after his four-game substance-abuse suspension. He’s expected to be the third corner.

These teams have a great rivalry. Both won on the other’s turf last year, with Philly embarrassing Washington 59-28 as 3 ½-point road favorites. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Weather is expected to be beautiful, mostly sunny and possibly reaching 70 degrees.

[StarDust Bum]

Tip Sheet - Week 6

October 13, 2011


The late games in the NFL have always been known as "chasers" for bettors who may have lost in the early contests. Playing the favorites in the 4:00 games have turned profitable this season with a 19-3 SU and 14-7-1 ATS mark, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record in Week 5. Three of the four favorites playing in the late afternoon games are amongst the league's elite (Ravens, Patriots, and Saints), who are a combined 11-3. We'll start with a team who returns home to honor its late owner, while looking for their fourth win on the season.

Browns at Raiders (-6 ½, 44 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

One day after longtime owner Al Davis passed away, the Raiders rallied past the Texans as road underdogs to improve to 3-2 on the season. Now, Oakland returns to the Black Hole this Sunday to host the 2-2 Browns, who are fresh off the bye week. Interestingly enough, the Browns are listed as a 'dog for the first time this season, while the Raiders are laying points for the first time in five games.

Cleveland's offense hasn't made many strides this season for the exception of the 27-point outburst at Indianapolis in Week 2 by scoring 17 points or less in the three other games. Somehow, the Browns have cashed the 'over' three times despite the lack of scoring, while looking for their sixth straight cover against the Raiders dating back to 2003. Oakland has turned in a pair of 'unders' since a run of three straight 'overs,' while the Raiders try to improve on a 2-12 ATS mark the previous 14 opportunities as home 'chalk.'

Texans at Ravens (-7 ½, 44 ½) - 4:05 PM EST
Baltimore returns from the bye week as the Ravens welcome in the beat-up Texans. Houston will be without star receiver Andre Johnson and standout defensive end Mario Williams due to injuries, as Gary Kubiak's club is just 1-4 ATS the previous five games as a road 'dog since the start of last season. The Ravens are 2-0 SU/ATS at home with blowout wins over the two teams that played for the AFC Championship last season (Steelers and Jets).

In John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach, the Ravens own a 15-8 ATS record as a home favorite, including a 12-3 ATS mark the last 15 home games against non-division foes. Houston's issues as an underdog were documented above, but another scary number is the 1-5 ATS ledger since November 2009 off a home loss. The Texans are playing with revenge on Sunday after dropping a 34-28 home decision to the Ravens last season in a Monday night thriller, as Baltimore captured victory thanks to an interception return for a touchdown in overtime.

Cowboys at Patriots (-7, 55) - 4:15 PM EST

Dallas may sit at just 2-2 on the season, but all four games have been decided by four points or less as the Cowboys head to Foxboro to battle the Patriots. New England has topped the 30-point mark in all five games, including last Sunday's 30-21 home victory over the Jets, cashing as 7 ½-point 'chalk.' The Patriots begin a crucial stretch with games against the Steelers, Giants, and Jets following the bye week, so a letdown is out of the question for Bill Belichick's squad.

New England owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS record the previous nine games off a division win, including three victories by 27 points or more last season. The Cowboys have turned into a profitable play off the bye week over the years, going 5-1 ATS the last six seasons, including a 4-0 SU/ATS mark on the road. Dallas has compiled a 6-2 SU record since 2007 on the highway against AFC opponents, as the Cowboys beat the Texans and Colts as underdogs last season.

Saints (-4 ½, 49 ½) at Buccaneers - 4:15 PM EST

Tampa Bay stumbles back home after getting sliced up in San Francisco last week, 48-3, as the Bucs host the red-hot Saints. Since falling in the opener to undefeated Green Bay, Sean Payton's team is riding a four-game winning streak, including last week's shootout victory at Carolina. The Saints conclude a stretch of three consecutive road games, the first time playing three straight away from home since Hurricane Katrina knocked them out of the Superdome to start the 2005 season.

New Orleans isn't a great road favorite after failing to cash at Carolina, as the Saints have compiled a 3-8 ATS mark the last 11 when laying points away from Louisiana. The Saints have an excellent opportunity to open things up in the NFC South race with games against the Colts, Rams, and a second go-around with the Bucs over the next month. Tampa Bay has struggled under Raheem Morris as a home underdog with a 1-9 ATS record, while going 4-13 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since 2009.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Cowboys at Patriots


DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 55.5

The Cowboys wild roller-coaster season continues Sunday afternoon with a trip to 4-1 New England. All four Dallas games this season have been decided by four points or less.

There’s some misplaced confidence in Dallas because defensive coordinator Rob Ryan led the Browns to an upset of the Pats a year ago, holding the New England offense to 14 points. But that was a much different Patriots offense. This one has a 100% healthy Wes Welker and a couple of star tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) with a full season under their belts. Even facing the Jets’ elite pass defense in Week 5, the Patriots still put up 446 yards of offense and 30 points. And the Cowboys’ pass defense is a big step down from the Jets. Throw in a couple of anticipated crippling mistakes by Dallas QB Tony Romo, and NEW ENGLAND should cover easily.

This rare four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Patriots:

Bill Belichick is 33-10 ATS (76.7%, +22.0 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.5, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Although the Cowboys have been stewing for two weeks after blowing a 27-3 lead to Detroit, the bye helped many of their players heal. WRs Miles Austin (hamstring) and Dez Bryant (thigh) are both expected to start on Sunday. That’s good news for the much-maligned Tony Romo who has put together both heroic and game-costing performances this year. He has a middling TD-to-INT ratio of 7-to-5, but his 8.38 YPA average ranks fifth in the NFL, ahead of Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees. The bye week also strengthened the wimpy Dallas running game (87 YPG, 26th in NFL), as RB Felix Jones (shoulder) is raring to get a heavier workload. The Cowboys have had no trouble stopping the run, leading the NFL with 62 rushing YPG allowed and 3.1 yards per carry allowed.

Unlike Dallas that has played in all close games, New England’s four wins have each been by nine points or more. The Patriots late field goal against the Jets last week extended their streak of scoring 30+ points to 13 straight regular-season games, one fewer than the Rams’ record set in 1999-2000. QB Tom Brady (375 passing YPG, 14 TD, 6 INT) and WR Wes Welker (NFL-best 740 receiving yards) have been unbelievable through the air, but New England’s ground game hasn’t been too shabby either. In the past two weeks, the Pats have rushed for 335 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has 211 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) in these two games, and the hopeful return of RB Danny Woodhead (ankle), will further enhance the rushing attack.

New England’s defensive deficiencies are still present, as the team ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (433 YPG) and passing defense (327 YPG). However, the Pats held the Jets to 255 total yards last week without the benefit of any takeaways.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Dolphins at Jets


MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-4)

at NEW YORK JETS (2-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -7, Total: 42.5

AFC East foes Miami and New York try to stop long losing skids when they match up on Monday night at the New Meadowlands. The Dolphins are 0-4 this year, while the Jets have allowed 98 points (32.7 PPG) during three straight defeats.

There’s no reason to give up on the Dolphins just because QB Chad Henne (shoulder) is out for the season. Back-up Matt Moore is only a slight downgrade, and the strength of this team was never the offense anyway. The Jets continue to search for an identity on offense, and they had just 255 yards in Week 5 against a Patriots defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. And consider that Miami is 7-3 ATS on the road the past two seasons, and they’ve won three road games in a row, SU and ATS, against the Jets. The Dolphins might not leave New Jersey with a win, but the Jets offense is in no shape to blow them out. The pick here is MIAMI, which is 17-8 ATS (68%) away from home under head coach Tony Sparano.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support picking the Dolphins:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. (80-43 since 1983.) (65%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*).

N.Y. JETS are 5-18 ATS (21.7%, -14.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992. The average score was N.Y. JETS 17.7, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 2*).

The Over is 7-4 (64%) in the past 11 meetings between these rivals, and this four-star FoxSheets trend also likes the OVER to occur on Monday night.

N.Y. JETS are 12-1 OVER (92.3%, +10.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N.Y. JETS 25.6, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 4*).

Moore’s career numbers are subpar (6.7 YPA, 16 TD, 18 INT), but he carries a respectable 7-6 record as a starter. For him to improve upon that record, he will look for Brandon Marshall to get open against a great secondary. Marshall torched the Jets for 166 yards on 10 catches in last year’s meeting in Miami, but New York held him to two receptions for 16 yards when Marshall visited New Meadowlands last December. Although the news in Miami has been about the loss of Chad Henne, the offense is expected to get a huge boost with the healthy return of RB Daniel Thomas. The rookie missed the last game with a hamstring injury, but is expected to play on Monday. He has 202 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC in two games this season.

The defense is a little banged up as S Chris Clemons (hamstring), CB Vontae Davis (hamstring) and DE Tony McDaniel (hand) are all listed as questionable for Monday’s game. Miami is allowing 307 passing YPG, which ranks second-to-last in the league. The Dolphins have also done a poor job of creating turnovers with just two takeaways in four games this year.

QB Mark Sanchez has had an up-and-down season, throwing for 886 yards (295 YPG) and 6 TD in his first three games, but then tallying 285 yards (143 YPG) and 2 TD in his past two contests. Although he is 1-3 in his career versus Miami, and completing less than half of his pass attempts, Sanchez has thrown 6 TD and just one interception in these four meetings. New York’s ground game continues to be atrocious, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 76 rushing YPG. The team’s top two rushers, Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, are both averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

New York’s run-stop unit hasn’t been much better, with opponents gaining 135 YPG against the team’s 26th-ranked run defense. The team has surrendered 166 rushing YPG during its three-game losing skid. The Jets secondary remains an elite unit, as their 203 passing YPG allowed is fifth-best in the NFL.

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago Bears Meet Vikings On Sunday Night

The Chicago Bears have committed an unacceptable 17 false starts.
With Green Bay and Detroit both at 5-0 and about to fly over the horizon in the NFC North, the situation has suddenly become crucial for both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.

Win, or else.

With playoff hopes quickly being reduced to one of two conference wild card spots, neither the Bears nor the Vikings can be affording to give away too many more games.

One of these two, however, is going to exit Soldier Field a loser on Sunday night, and make its trek back up the ladder to playoff contention all that much harder.

The Don Best odds screen currently sees the Bears favored by 3 at the majority of outlets, with the ‘total’ hovering between 41½ and 42. Kickoff on NBC, with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth describing the action, is slated for 8:30 p.m. (ET).

Although Chicago enters the contest at 2-3 and a game ahead of the Vikings in the division, this shapes up as even more of a crossroads game for Lovie Smith’s crew, off a stinging 24-13 Monday night loss at Detroit. After an earlier defeat vs. Green Bay, the Bears are in danger of falling to 0-3 within the division, further damaging Chicago in case of season-ending tiebreakers within the NFC North.

Word from the Windy City indicates some trouble could be brewing at Halas Hall. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been openly expressing reservations about the Mike Martz offense in the wake of absorbing another George Chuvalo-like beating on Monday at Detroit. The Lions hit Cutler often and hard, forcing Cutler to throw on the move for most of the game.

For the season, Cutler has been sacked 18 times, tied with Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis’ Sam Bradford for the most in the NFL in a category no one wants to lead. The prospect of dealing with Minnesota sackmeisters Jared Allen (NFL-best 8½ sacks) and fellow DE Brian Robison (4½ sacks) cannot be comforting to Midway Jay.

The Martz offense, now in its second year in Chicago, has always seemed a strange fit by many who believed it would not mesh with Lovie Smith’s preference to run the ball.

Pure fundamental issues appear at the root of the Bears’ ongoing offensive inconsistencies. The team continues to lack a go-to, All-Pro caliber receiving target for Cutler, while the offensive line has been plagued by spotty play ever since Cutler arrived in town from Denver two years ago. Starting RT Frank Omiyale has been lifted each of the past two games.

Cutler is on record as saying he would prefer quicker, three-and-five-step drops as opposed to the seven-step drops that put him squarely in the crosshairs of enemy rushers.

Another way to diffuse enemy pass rushers is by establishing an infantry presence with Matt Forte, who did rumble for over 205 yards rushing two weeks ago vs. the Panthers and another 116 vs. the Lions on Monday, although the sequencing of his carries was not especially effective at Detroit.

Cutler has also not been pleased with communications from the sideline, which have often been slow and forced unnecessary timeouts to be wasted. The frustration is more understandable after last Monday’s game at Detroit when the Bears were also whistled for an astounding nine false-start penalties, rattled by the deafening noise inside of Ford Field. For the season, Chicago has committed an unacceptable 17 false starts.

Moreover, Lovie is also authorizing some emergency changes on defense, the secondary in particular, after breakdowns caused two long Lions TDs on Monday. Big plays are supposed to be negated by Lovie’s "Tampa Two" schemes, but Chicago has already allowed six plays of 40-plus yards in just five games, the same amount permitted in 16 games a year ago.

Veteran safeties Chris Harris and Brandon Meriweather have been benched for the Viking game, replaced by little-used Major Wright and Cal rookie Chris Conte this week. Lovie is also hoping DE Julius Peppers gets the okay to participate after tweaking a knee on Monday at Ford Field. After leaving the field for treatment, Peppers returned to action vs. the Lions, but was reportedly having more trouble with the knee at midweek, casting some doubt as to his availability on Sunday.

Indeed, the Bears appear to be a team on the verge of crisis.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is hoping to build some momentum after notching its first win of the season last week, in impressive style to boot, when whipping the Cardinals, 34-10, at the Metrodome.

There’s further encouragement for the Vikes this week, as they’ll be able to unleash Adrian Peterson against what has been a very leaky Bears rush defense allowing a hefty 5.7 yards per carry.

Peterson enjoyed his best game of 2011 last week, rushing for 3 TDs (all in the first quarter) en route to a season-best 122 YR. Although there is still concern about QB Donovan McNabb, yet to throw downfield with any confidence this season and completing only 56.8% of his passes with just 4 TDs in five games.

Sources in the Twin Cities are suggesting that the clock continues to tick on McNabb. Some NFC North insiders believe that coach Leslie Frazier is just a couple of losses away from going into full rebuild mode and turning the QB job over to Florida State rookie Christian Ponder.

Note that the Vikings have dropped nine of their last 10 trips to the Windy City, losing by an average of 10 points. Minnesota has also dropped eight of its last 11 vs. the line away from the Metrodome.

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: First 5 weeks in NFL


With the first five weeks of the 2011 NFL season in the books, we’ve uncovered a number of trends that have been established.
1. When OVER the total receives more than 80% of the public support, the OVER is 18-4 (82%). When OVER the total receives less than 60% of the public support, the OVER is 9-2 (82%).

2. Home Underdogs are a lukewarm 15-13 ATS (54%). However, Home Underdogs of 3 points or less are 9-5 (64%). Home Underdogs of more than 5 points are 6-4 ATS (60%).

3. In all divisional matchups, the side that gets the majority of support from the betting public is 6-12 ATS (33%).

4. Road Underdogs of 3 points or less are 10-4 ATS (71%). Road Underdogs of 9 points or more are 6-2 ATS (75%). All Underdogs of 10 points or more are 6-2 ATS (75%).

5. In all AFC vs. NFC matchups, NFC teams are 8-5 ATS (62%).

6. When the total ranges from 40 to 41.5 (inclusive), Underdogs are 13-3 ATS (81%). OVER the total is 13-4 (76%) in these games.

7. When the Road team receives more than 65% of the public support, Road teams are 18-11 ATS (62%).

8. OVER the total is 11-2 (85%) in games in which the total is less than 40.
OVER the total is 6-2 (75%) in games in which the total is 50 or more.
OVER the total is 13-3 (81%) in games in which the spread is less than 3 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Cowboys at Patriots

DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 55.5

The Cowboys wild roller-coaster season continues Sunday afternoon with a trip to 4-1 New England. All four Dallas games this season have been decided by four points or less.

There’s some misplaced confidence in Dallas because defensive coordinator Rob Ryan led the Browns to an upset of the Pats a year ago, holding the New England offense to 14 points. But that was a much different Patriots offense. This one has a 100% healthy Wes Welker and a couple of star tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) with a full season under their belts. Even facing the Jets’ elite pass defense in Week 5, the Patriots still put up 446 yards of offense and 30 points. And the Cowboys’ pass defense is a big step down from the Jets. Throw in a couple of anticipated crippling mistakes by Dallas QB Tony Romo, and NEW ENGLAND should cover easily.

This rare four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Patriots:

Bill Belichick is 33-10 ATS (76.7%, +22.0 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.5, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Although the Cowboys have been stewing for two weeks after blowing a 27-3 lead to Detroit, the bye helped many of their players heal. WRs Miles Austin (hamstring) and Dez Bryant (thigh) are both expected to start on Sunday. That’s good news for the much-maligned Tony Romo who has put together both heroic and game-costing performances this year. He has a middling TD-to-INT ratio of 7-to-5, but his 8.38 YPA average ranks fifth in the NFL, ahead of Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees. The bye week also strengthened the wimpy Dallas running game (87 YPG, 26th in NFL), as RB Felix Jones (shoulder) is raring to get a heavier workload. The Cowboys have had no trouble stopping the run, leading the NFL with 62 rushing YPG allowed and 3.1 yards per carry allowed.

Unlike Dallas that has played in all close games, New England’s four wins have each been by nine points or more. The Patriots late field goal against the Jets last week extended their streak of scoring 30+ points to 13 straight regular-season games, one fewer than the Rams’ record set in 1999-2000. QB Tom Brady (375 passing YPG, 14 TD, 6 INT) and WR Wes Welker (NFL-best 740 receiving yards) have been unbelievable through the air, but New England’s ground game hasn’t been too shabby either. In the past two weeks, the Pats have rushed for 335 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has 211 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) in these two games, and the hopeful return of RB Danny Woodhead (ankle), will further enhance the rushing attack.

New England’s defensive deficiencies are still present, as the team ranks last in the NFL in both total defense (433 YPG) and passing defense (327 YPG). However, the Pats held the Jets to 255 total yards last week without the benefit of any takeaways.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: 49ers at Lions

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-1)

at DETROIT LIONS (5-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -4, Total: 46

Two of the league’s biggest surprises square off on Sunday when 5-0 Detroit hosts 4-1 San Francisco.

In this matchup, defense will be at a premium. The Niners rank second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), while Detroit is tied for fourth, allowing 17.8 PPG. The 49ers trounced the Bucs 48-3 in Week 5, looking the best they have in a long time in both phases of the offense. Detroit’s disruptive defensive line and ball-hawking secondary will give San Fran much more of a challenge in this game. The Lions passing combination of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson is emerging as one of the NFL’s best, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a physical, playmaking 49ers’ defense. San Francisco has won many of its games in 2011 because of 14 takeaways, but Detroit has turned the ball over a league-low four times this season. Both teams are 4-0-1 ATS so far, but the Lions have been a great bet for two years now, going 16-3-2 ATS (84%), including 9-1 ATS at home since 2010 began. The pick here is DETROIT to win and cover.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Lions.

DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (87.5%, +11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.9, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 4*).

The 49ers destroyed Tampa Bay, which was coming off a short week, and now Detroit has one day less to prepare after playing Monday night. San Francisco RB Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards, while QB Alex Smith threw for 170 yards and 3 TD, in leading the team to its third straight win. After rushing for just 69.7 YPG in their first three contests, the 49ers are averaging 189 rushing YPG in their past two games. But even with the offensive explosion, the team still ranks 27th in the league in total offense (300 YPG).

WR Josh Morgan (15 rec, 220 yds, 1 TD) will no longer be able to help Smith, as his season ended Wednesday when he was placed on IR with a fractured right ankle. The defense has generated three turnovers in four different games this year, and has the fifth-best run stop unit in football, allowing just 76 rushing YPG.

Detroit will be content to throw the football, but it showed last week that it can also run the ball with 181 yards on 20 carries. Even if Jahvid Bust didn’t score on an 88-yard TD scamper, the Lions still averaged 4.9 YPC on their other 19 rushing attempts. Stafford and Johnson continue to amaze. Stafford is averaging 287 passing YPG with 13 TD and 4 INT, while Johnson gained a season-high 130 yards against Chicago and scored his league-leading ninth touchdown.

On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit is fourth in the league in passing yards per attempt (5.9 YPA). The pass rush has been solid, as 10 of the team’s dozen sacks have come from the D-Line. The Lions have dropped seven straight meetings with San Francisco and only earned one ATS win over this span (1-5-1 ATS). However, six of these seven meetings occurred in San Francisco.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 6 Preview: Eagles at Redskins


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-4)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -1.5, Total: 47

The Eagles are staring at an early-season must win when they visit division rival Washington on Sunday.

A month ago, many experts would’ve guessed this would be a matchup of the NFC East leader versus the division cellar-dweller, but with the reverse scenario in mind. The Eagles are coming off four straight losses as their defense struggles and their offense turns the ball over. The Redskins are coming off a bye week with a 3-1 record thanks to a surprisingly strong defensive unit. Eagles QB Michael Vick torched the Skins in D.C. last November, en route to a 59-28 victory. Philly’s offense should be able to put points on the board, and finally put a stop to its losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Eagles.

Andy Reid is 99-63 ATS (61.1%, +29.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.8, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Vick was phenomenal the last time he played in Washington, becoming the first player in NFL history to rush for 50+ yards (80) and two scores, while throwing for 300+ yards (333) and four more TD. Vick has not enjoyed a great 2011 season under center. His 267 passing YPG is strong, but 8 TD and 7 INT is not a good ratio. He threw four of those picks in last week’s 31-24 loss to Buffalo. RB LeSean McCoy averaged 105 rushing YPG on 19.0 carries per game in Weeks 1-3, but has only carried the pigskin 20 total times (for 98 yards) in the past two games.

The Eagles defense ranks 26th in scoring (26.4 PPG), 30th in rushing (140 YPG) and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (11). Despite its high-priced secondary. Philly has picked off only three passes all season.

The matchup of Washington’s resurgent running game against Philly’s inconsistent defense will likely be the difference in this game. But who exactly will run the ball for the Redskins remains a bit of a mystery. Tim Hightower (probable with a shoulder injury) has more than half the team’s carries, but Ryan Torain had a huge last game in St. Louis, galloping for 135 yards on just 19 attempts (7.1 YPC). Rookie Roy Helu has also been running strong with 126 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC). Washington will need its ground game to thrive as QB Rex Grossman has completed just 58% of his passes and has thrown five picks in the past three games.

The Redskins defense has been sound in all facets, placing among the league’s top six in scoring (15.8 PPG), yardage (297 YPG), First Downs (15.5 per game) and passing touchdowns (three).