The Bum's Week # 7 CFB Best Bets 10/13-10/15 !

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Betting Preview Week 7

Michigan State is a 3-point favorite for its annual battle with Michigan.
ESPN loves to give fancy names to huge weekends of college football. With 13 of the AP Poll's Top 25 going on the road, we are going to call it "Roadblock Saturday."

In Week 6 of the college football betting campaign, none of the Top 10 teams in the AP Poll were beaten, leaving the rankings exactly the same heading into Week 7. Though it's hard to say that we would guarantee things not staying the same this week, the Top 25 will certainly be shaken up when we have this discussion about next week's games.

Of the Top 12 teams in the AP Poll, nine are playing the role of visitors this weekend. Only the Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon Ducks are going to be at home, while the Arkansas Razorbacks are idle.

Some teams have it significantly easier than other, notably in the Top 5.

The LSU Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners, Wisconsin Badgers and Boise State Broncos are all favored by at least 15 points, and the five average getting the nod on the Week 7 NCAA football betting lines by 29.2 PPG.

LSU is the only club of the five that isn't favored by at least 25 points, and it draws a Tennessee Volunteers outfit that isn't going to have the services of its starting quarterback, Tyler Bray.

Bray broke his thumb in a 20-12 loss last week at home against the Georgia Bulldogs. He'll be out of action for at least the next month.

Outside of the Top 5 though, things get mighty interesting.

The Michigan Wolverines have the sternest test of the bunch with a trip to East Lansing. They're the only team in the Top 12 that is an underdog. The Michigan State Spartans, who are also ranked in the AP Poll, are favored by three points. The good news for Michigan is that the road team is 6-2 ATS and 5-3 SU in the last eight meetings of these instate rivals.

Last week, the Texas Longhorns were smacked around by the Sooners in the Red River Rivalry, knocking them 11 spots in the AP Poll. The good news is that they are coming back home to play in Austin this week. The bad news is that the Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming to town.

The Cowboys have already won once in the Lone Star State this year, posting a narrow escape from the Texas A&M Aggies. The oddsmakers have them favored by 7 ½-points on the opening college football betting lines, and if the chalk holds up, Texas will be added to the growing list of traditional powerhouse schools that is not in the Top 25.

The ACC Atlantic Division could essentially be decided this week. The Clemson Tigers have their sights glued to a perfect season, and they hope that the Maryland Terrapins are their next victim. A Clemson win parlayed with a loss by the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies gives the men in orange and purple a two-game lead in the division with the tiebreaker on both the Florida State Seminoles and the Terps with just five conference games to play.

Clemson is favored by nine at Maryland, while Virginia Tech gets the nod by a touchdown at Wake Forest.

The other two teams in the Top 12 that we have yet to make mention of are both road favorites this week as well. The Stanford Cardinal are favored by 20 over the Washington State Cougars, and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are favored by eight points over the Virginia Cavaliers.

The final game on the slate in Week 7 between the Arizona State Sun Devils and Oregon Ducks might be the best of the bunch. Oregon might not have the services of its Heisman Trophy candidate, LaMichael James, who injured his right elbow in last week's win over the California Golden Bears.

That being said, this is still a potential Pac-12 Championship Game preview, as these two are the favorites in their respective divisions. Oregon, even without James, is favored by 15 points over the Sun Devils at Autzen Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Warriors At San Jose State Spartans

Hawaii is eighth in passing offense, averaging 343.4 yards per game.
It should be a wacky night in the WAC on Friday, as NCAA football betting fans get to sink their teeth into a clash at Spartan Stadium between the San Jose State Spartans and the visiting Hawaii Warriors.

Kickoff from San Jose is slated for 9:00 p.m. (ET) on Friday night in this standalone game to be broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

With the Boise State Broncos no longer in the conference, everyone in the WAC has to think that they have a shot of claiming the conference crown. Hawaii is off to a 1-0 start in conference play, having trumped the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last week in Ruston. San Jose State has a win over the New Mexico State Aggies, but a loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack this year in conference.

All eyes are going to be on Bryant Moniz in this one. Last season, Moniz threw for 5,040 yards and 39 touchdowns. It's hard to believe, but he is on pace to put up even better numbers in his senior season.

Moniz has already tossed 15 TD passes against just one interception on the season, and he has thrown for 1,578 yards. As a result, the Warriors have the No. 8 ranked passing attack in the country at 343.4 YPG.

Royce Pollard, who was the third receiver last year behind Kealoha Pilares and Greg Salas, has taken over as the top target in this offense. He has 33 receptions for 550 yards and six TDs thus far on the campaign, and he'll be a tough matchup for whichever defensive back is on him.

This is all terrible news for a San Jose State defense which ranks No. 92 in the country both in terms of total defense (414.7 YPG) and scoring defense (30.8 PPG).

The Spartans have only had one game this year in which they have allowed fewer than 24 points, and there's no reason to think that will change with the Warriors coming to town.

Offensively, there are question marks as well. This is most certainly an improved unit from ones that have struggled to reach even 300 YPG in the past, but there is nothing overly impressive about 347.5 YPG and 20.3 PPG, both numbers which rank No. 90 or worse in the country.

To make matters worse, the Spartans' leading rusher, Brandon Rutley has an ankle injury that could keep him out of this one. Rutley, who has 519 rushing yards and six TDs this year, missed last week's 29-16 loss at the BYU Cougars, and he is considered day-to-day for this week's clash as well.

Historically, this is a series that belongs to the Warriors. They have only lost once since 2000, and they have gone 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings.

Last year, Moniz threw for a whopping 560 yards en route to a 41-7 victory for the Warriors. However, as is well documented, Hawaii is a significantly different team at home than it is on the road, and San Jose has to feel like it has a shot at the upset.

The Warriors opened this week favored by seven points on the Week 7 college football odds.

The weather is expected to be beautiful on Friday night, as the forecast is calling for high temperatures in the mid-70s with virtually no chance of rain.

[StarDust Bum]

VI Top 25 Ranking

If you've been following the Top 25 since before Week 1, then you know that our rankings have needed few adjustments at the top. In fact, our top four hasn't changed yet.

Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Wisconsin have been one through four in that order from the get-go. Unlike most other polls, we had Oregon fifth to start the year and fully expected LSU to handle the Ducks.

Boise St. has been our solid No. 5 since Week 2. Teams on the rise this week are Clemson and Oklahoma St., who both move into the top 10. Michigan also climbs higher after dealing out cream-cheese treatment to Minnesota in a 58-0 win.

Florida, Va. Tech and South Carolina fall out of the top 10 this week, while unbeaten Kansas St. makes its debut in the Top 25.



2011 Top-25 Rankings

Rank Team 2011 SU* 2011 ATS** Skinny

1 Alabama
Crimson Tide 5-0 4-1 Alabama flexed its muscle at The Swamp in its third straight blowout win over the Gators. Sportsbook.com has the Tide as a 6 1/2-point home favorite for its Nov. 5 showdown vs. LSU.

2 LSU
Tigers 5-0 3-2 LSU failed to cover the number in a 35-7 home win over Kentucky. QB Jordan Jefferson returned to the field in a back-up role. The Tigers catch a break with UF coming to Baton Rouge without its starting QB, John Brantley.

3 Oklahoma
Sooners 4-0 3-1 Oklahoma hammered Ball St. 62-6 in a tune-up for this week's Red Rivalry showdown against unbeaten Texas. The Sooners beat the Longhorns 28-20 last season.

4 Wisconsin
Badgers 5-0 4-1 Wisconsin continued to dominate its opponents by blasting Nebraska by a 48-17 count as a 10-point home favorite. The Badgers have an open date before hosting Indiana.

5 Boise State
Broncos 4-0 2-2 For the second straight week, Boise St. got ahead of the number laying a bunch of points, only to get back-doored in the fourth quarter with its back-ups in the game. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for the Broncos.

6 Stanford
Cardinal 4-0 4-0 Stanford came back from its open date to smash UCLA, 45-19. The Cardinal should cruise through its next three foes before an Oct. 29 trip to USC.

7 Oregon
Ducks 3-1 2-2 Coming off a bye week, Oregon returns to the gridiron Thursday night vs. California. The Ducks host Arizona St. in Eugene next week.

8 Clemson
Tigers 5-0 4-1 Clemson went on the road and dominated Va. Tech in a 23-3 win as a seven-point underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a plus-220 payout. They are now 5-1 ATS as road 'dogs on Dabo Swinney's watch.

9 Oklahoma State
Cowboys 4-0 3-1 After an open date, Oklahoma St. welcomes Kansas to Stillwater on Saturday. Next, the Cowboys have back-to-back road games at Texas and at Missouri.

10 Arkansas
Razorbacks 4-1 3-2 Arkansas beat Texas A&M for a third straight year at Cowboys Stadium, rallying from a 35-17 halftime deficit to capture a 42-38 win as a 2 1/2-point underdog. The Hogs host Auburn on Saturday.

11 Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets 5-0 4-0-1 Ga. Tech stayed undefeated with a 45-35 win at N.C. St. The Yellow Jackets, who face Maryland in Atlanta on Saturday, have seen the 'over' hit in all five of their games.

12 Texas
Longhorns 4-0 3-1 There was no look-ahead spot for Texas last week when it crushed Iowa St. in Ames. The Longhorns can leap into the Top 10 with a win over OU in Dallas.

13 Florida
Gators 4-1 3-1-1 Florida hasn't been a double-digit underdog at LSU since 2003 when it went into Baton Rouge and won a 19-7 decision against the eventual national champs.

14 South Carolina
Gamecocks 4-1 2-2-1 South Carolina lost at home to Auburn by a 16-13 score in Columbia. The Gamecocks will try to bounce back Saturday vs. Kentucky.

15 Virginia Tech
Hokies 4-1 1-4 Va. Tech has issues galore offensively, as evidenced by its three-point output vs. Clemson. The Hokies have lost four in a row ATS. They host Miami on Saturday.

16 Michigan
Wolverines 5-0 4-1 Michigan will leave The Big House for the first time this week to take on Northwestern. Next, the Wolverines face arch-rival Michigan St. in East Lansing.

17 West Virginia
Mountaineers 4-1 2-2-1 WVU takes on UConn this week in Morgantown before an open date. After the bye, the Mountaineers play at Syracuse and at Rutgers.

18 Georgia
Bulldogs 3-2 3-1-1 With Florida and South Carolina going down in Week 5, Georgia is very much in the mix in the SEC East. However, it better win in Knoxville on Saturday.

19 Florida State
Seminoles 2-2 1-3 FSU is expected to get QB E.J. Manuel back after he missed the loss at Clemson with a shoulder injury. The 'Noles are double-digit 'chalk' Saturday at Wake Forest.

20 Arizona State
Sun Devils 4-1 1-4 Arizona St. is perfect in Pac-12 play so far with road games looming at Utah and at Oregon.

21 Tennessee
Volunteers 3-1 2-1-1 The Tennessee-Georgia winner will be in a first-place tie in the SEC East. The Vols have had their way with the Dawgs at Neyland Stadium recently.

22 Auburn
Tigers 4-1 2-3 Auburn improved to 2-0 in the SEC with its 16-13 comeback win at South Carolina as a double-digit 'dog. The Tigers are on the road again Saturday at Arkansas.

23 Penn St.
Nittany Lions 4-1 1-4 Penn St. has been shaky ATS but it takes a 2-0 Big Ten ledger into Saturday's home game vs. Iowa.

24 Kansas State
Wildcats 4-0 3-1 Kansas St. rallied in the fourth quarter to hand Baylor its first loss this past Saturday. The Wildcats host Missouri this week in a crucial Big 12 showdown.

25 Illinois
Fighting Illini 5-0 2-3 Ron Zook's team rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Northwestern 38-35 in Week 5. The Illini is heavily favored Saturday at Indiana.

[StarDust Bum]

Books get hammered again

October 10, 2011

"There's no delicate way to put this, Sir, we got pummeled." That was a likely line many sports book directors had to tell their bosses both Saturday and Sunday nights after bettors across the state had all the stars aligned perfectly for them making it the perfect storm.

On normal weekends where the sports book usually wins, the sports book director will get a call from either the general manager, CFO, COO, president or owner of a casino; sometimes, it's a combination of all five. They'll call to see how much was won on the day because they know the sports books fluctuating win/loss figure, a number that is virtually impossible to forecast, can be the major difference between making fourth quarter budget or falling short.

On this weekend, most sports book directors didn't wait for the call, they made the call directly to be the bearer of bad news.

It was a gravy train that started where small public money lit the fuse on Thursday night with Oregon covering 24 points and continued through the powder keg of dynamite Sunday night game with the Packers covering six points on the road at Atlanta. In between those two games was a run on favorites that even the hottest hand on the craps table had to admire.

It wasn't just that the favorites went 32-20 against-the-spread in college football over the weekend, or the pro's that went 7-5, it was who the favorites were. Eleven of the top-12 college teams played with 10 of them covering. The only team that failed to cover was No. 11 Texas because they faced No. 3 Oklahoma, who pounded the Longhorns 55-17.

Most of the small money players like to play teams they know, or like, rather than betting the number or value. It makes it more fun to root for teams that are consistently reliable as well as being able to watch them on TV. The top ranked teams always have the most action on them and the favorite is usually the side that is weighted the most.

It's very rare to see all the top favorites come in which is why college football is usually a very consistent win source for the books year after year with not as much fluctuation as the pro's. The pointspread is supposed to even the tables for the book and bettor, but last weekend it was completely one-sided.

Boise State (-21) covering Friday night carrying over two and three-team parlays into Saturday where Clemson (-20) got a fourth-quarter touchdown to cover at Boston College 36-14 and then No. 1 LSU (-14) punished Florida 41-11. Oklahoma State (-29) rolled, as did everyone's favorite 'favorite' Stanford who have yet to be beaten against-the-spread. Arkansas (-10) cruised and Michigan (-7.5) scored 28 unanswered second half points to cover against Northwestern.

If there was one saving grace that helped the helped the sports books Saturday, it was No. 13 Georgia Tech who had covered their previous five game with each of their totals also going OVER. They failed to make it happen this time. Tech won 21-16, failing to cover the 15-points against Maryland and going UNDER the total for the first time.

There was another small bit of good news as well. All season long the sports books have been getting killed on the late national TV games with the favorites. Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay said last week that they have gone 1-12 in the isolated night games coming into this week. On Saturday, there was only one big game to contend with struggling Ohio State playing at Nebraska (-11).

Everyone was down on Ohio State's offense making the Huskers one of the more popular plays of the week with small money on parlays. Sharp money didn't have an opinion on the game, although there was some Buckeyes money when +11 ½ showed up. Ohio State jumped out to a 20-6 halftime lead, easing some sports book directors a little who were already numb from results of the early games. Beating down Nebraska would just make the final losses less.

But then that public tidal wave started again and Nebraska rode the wave to outscore Ohio State 28-7 in the second half, making the score 34-27, much to the delight of sports book crowds everywhere. Had Nebraska scored one more touchdown, it would have been one of the largest scores for the public on one college football Saturday ever with all the parlays multiplying.

After a few heart-pounding final minutes of the game for both the bettors and sports books, the game ended 34-27 with the Buckeyes getting the money.

Now the stage is set for Sunday where each of the pro football games have an extraordinary amount of parlay risk tagged to them from the previous day ready to explode. It was almost an exact repeat of the previous Sunday where the books got hammered. The day started out well with popular teams like the Eagles, Giants and Saints not covering, but the final wave of action in the afternoon games destroyed just about every sports book.

Two late field goals by the Chargers and Patriots gave those two favorites the cover. In the case of the Patriots, the field goal also sent the game OVER the total of 50, which ignited even more parlays. With San Francisco smoking the Buccaneers and that total going OVER, it made the favorite to OVER combo -- the most popular public play weekly -- 6-0 in the afternoon games, a situation no book could overcome no matter how much sharp large money action they got on the other side.

The small money in masses at multiplied parlay odds will always be the most formidable opponent to the sports books, especially on weekends like last week. Most of the sharp money's best days are when the sports book has a great day beating the public.

The Packers seemed like an extremely high road favorite (-6) at Atlanta, but the public didn't care what the spread was. In their minds, Aaron Rodgers can't be stopped no matter how good Atlanta has been at home with Matt Ryan and they were correct as the Packers overcame a 14-0 deficit to win 25-14. The win capped off all kinds of fireworks with several big parlays culminating. Those parlays that are still alive are resting on the Lions Monday night.

Congratulations to the bettors out there who did the damage this week, well done!

If there is any silver lining in the loss for the sports books, it's that a lot of that money will be back for action this week with double and triple the bankroll most of the bettors generally wager with. This should produce at least a 10 to 15% increase in same week handle from last year.

It's funny how seasons change, because last year the small player couldn't catch a break until Week 10 and here we are heading into Week 6 with the players having two unbelievable weekends. It just goes to show that everything cycles around when betting sports no matter how how sharp or good a number is.

[StarDust Bum]

Updated BCS Odds

October 10, 2011

The initial BCS standings come out this Sunday and while we've been perplexed by the national polls shuffling of No. 1 teams without any of them losing, we all know the major piece of any BCS equation will be decided November 5 when No. 1 LSU travels to No. 3 Alabama.

Even though the game is a month away, it's never too early too speculate what the line on a game of this magnitude will be. The Golden Nugget opened Alabama as 9-point favorites when they opened their "Games of the Year" back in June without any initial takers. After what we have seen so far, that number appears to be a little high.

To get a better read on what the line should be if making it today, we asked Kenny White, one of the sharpest oddsmakers in the world what he would make it.

"This SEC battle becomes very interesting now that Jordan Jefferson is back for LSU," said White who co-stars on 'The Linemakers', a Friday night TV show on Discovery's Velocity channel. "Jefferson brings a duel threat to the QB position, but turnovers will be a key to the game. Alabama QB A.J. McCarron is rounding into a fine signal caller and Trent Richardson will be the best player on the field. Alabama's home field is worth five points, so I have Alabama -7 for the big game."

The value of home field and what it's worth to the spread is the key here. In White's Linemaker's college football poll, the only poll that actually rates teams on statistical formula's that create pointspreads, Alabama has been No. 1 all season and is two rating points better than anyone.

While the LSU-Alabama game will likely simplify one part of the equation, here's a looks at some others to contend for the BCS Championship with updated odds to win for each from the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Alabama (9/5): The big game is LSU, but you can throw out the records for their season finale at Auburn on November 26.

Oklahoma (3/1): They play at No. 17 Kansas State, they welcome a tough rival in Texas A&M, play at No. 20 Baylor and then close out at No. 6 Oklahoma State on December 3. It's a tough road even with no conference title game and will be BCS No. 2 if they win out.

Wisconsin (7/2): They need some help. Even if they win at No. 23 Michigan State and at No. 16 Illinois, they are going to need either Oklahoma or the winner of the LSU/Alabama game to fall. Winning the newly added Big 10 conference game will give them a few extra BCS rating points, but not enough to bump the big boys out.

LSU (5/1): Their hopes rest entirely with the Alabama game and then have to beat a dangerous Arkansas squad to close out their regular season November 25.

Stanford (12/1): Their big game will be at home against No. 9 Oregon and then a Pac-12 title game, likely against No. 18 Arizona State. They need a lot help because the Pac-12 conference ratings fall well below everyone except Boise State's.

Boise State (12/1): Same story, different year. Their change in conferences doesn't make much of a difference. They should run the table, but will have a hard time passing a couple one-loss teams in the BCS rankings even if they were the only undefeated team.

Oklahoma State (15/1): They play at No. 22 Texas this week and then have home games against No. 20 Baylor, No. 17 Kansas State and then the big game with No. 3 Oklahoma on December 3. There is no conference title game, but should they get through that schedule of land mines, they will have earned a shot at the BCS title game against either LSU or Alabama.

Michigan (20/1): They'll need Oklahoma and LSU/Alabama winner to lose and then take of care of business on their remaining schedule that includes games at Michigan State and Illinois with a home games against Nebraska and Ohio State. Beating Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game would be a big feather in their resume that the BCS computer will like.

Clemson (20/1): Their season took a major blow when QB Tajh Boyd got injured Saturday. Even if they ran the table by beating No. 12 Georgia Tech and No. 15 South Carolina, they would still be needing a lot of help, not quite as bad as Boise, but the ACC won't be very respected by the BCS.

Georgia Tech (20/1): They have a rough three game stretch against Miami, No. 8 Clemson and No. 19 Virginia Tech that would be surprising to see them come out of unfazed. Winning the ACC title game against Clemson or Wake Forest won't impress the BCS computer.

Illinois (100/1): They need all kinds of help along with taking care of business in front of them which includes Ohio State this week, Michigan and Wisconsin. The positive for them is that all three of those games are in Champaign.

Houston (Field 300/1): They should run the table with only a home game against SMU in their way, but they are at a place further back in everyone's mind than Boise State or TCU ever thought of. For them to have a chance, there may have to be only two-loss teams out there and even then it's slim.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Hawaii at SAN JOSE STATE (Friday)...UH's prolific QB Bryant Moniz performed like he was in 7-on-7 drills LY vs. SJS, throwing for a career-high 560 yds. in 41-17 thumping in Honolulu. Warriors, who've captured 9 of past 10 in series, enjoy advantage in scheduling dynamics. UH off bye week, while Spartans recouping from back-to-back road games. Warrior HC Greg McMackin was the San Jose St. DB coach from 1979-83.

Florida at AUBURN...You can be sure UF players will be made aware of last series meeting (2007), when heavily-favored (17-pt. chalk) and No.-4 ranked Gators endured 20-17 upset loss vs. AU in "The Swamp."

Toledo at BOWLING GREEN...BG fell behind 19-0 after 1st Q of LY's 33-14 setback at rival Toledo (schools just 26 miles apart). Rockets' star RB Adonis Thomas zoomed for 163 YR, gaining nearly half of that on 81-yd. TD run in 1st Q. UT's 3rd-year mentor Tim Beckman served as the Falcon d.c. and assistant HC from 1998-04.

Louisville vs. Cincinnati (Paul Brown Stadium)...Cincy has won and covered 3 straight for the "Keg of Nails." Bearcat QB Zach Collaros threw career-high 5 TDP, and star RB Pead had 145 YR (7 ypc) in LY's 35-27 road triumph.

Florida State at DUKE...Revitalized Duke seeking to end role as FSU's whipping boy, having dropped all 16 meetings, with an avg. score of 51-16 (no game closer than 16 pts!). Scheduling dynamics help Devils (off bye week), while 'Noles playing third straight away.

Northwestern at IOWA...Underdog has cashed the winning ticket in 11 of last 13 in this Big Ten series, with NW pulling off 3 straight upsets vs. Iowa. Last 6 in series have gone "under."

Miami-OHIO at KENT STATE...Wallowing KSU only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 on board (1-5 TY). In highly-deceptive 29-19 loss at Dix Stadium in 2009, M-O outgained KSU 552-250, but had season-high 5 giveaways and allowed 92-yd. KO return for TD.

Clemson at MARYLAND...Maryland looking forward to rematch following misleading 31-7 defeat at "Death Valley" LY. Terps outgained CU 350-213, but couldn't overcome 87-yd KO return and 61-yd. int. return for TDs.

Michigan State at MICHIGAN...UM is sky high to avoid first-ever 4-game losing streak in this rivalry. Wolverine QB Denard Robinson especially jacked-up after tossing 3 costly "picks," 2 coming inside Spartan 5-yd line in LY's 34-17 MSU win.

Alabama at OLE MISS...Rebels have played with a cause in this SEC series, covering 5 of last 6 as avg. 12-pt. dog. Ole Miss "D" limited Bama's powerful ground assault to only 100 YR in 23-10 loss at Tuscaloosa LY.

Iowa State at MISSOURI...ISU has covered 3 straight in Columbia as avg. 16-pt. dog. Cyclones geeked for rematch after LY's 14-0 shutout in reg.-season finale, costing them a bowl bid. ISU, which came out in special gold jerseys, outgained Mizzou 332-304, but missed 2 FGs.

Western Michigan at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WMU QB Alex Carder (360 YP) outperformed UNI's more-decorated pilot Chandler Harnish (214) LY, but Broncos produced zero pts. in 3 trips inside Husky 15-yd. line in annoying 28-21 home loss.

[StarDust Bum]

TGS EXTRA!!! SPECIAL REPORT...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE BOWLS!

We know we're just getting to the start of October. But much like we did last basketball season when our first "Bracketology" update for college hoops first appeared before New Year's (and was very well received), so we do the same with the college bowl lineup with an early, make that very early, preview.

We'll be updating this list periodically through the nexy few months both here in Extra Points as well as on our website at The GoldSheet - America's #1 Choice. And, of course, we reserve the right to change any of these forecasts as we go along. But for now, here are our best postseason projections.

NEW MEXICO (Dec. 17 at Albuquerque, Mountain West vs. Pac-12): Washington State vs. Colorado State...Both of these coaches (Wazzu's Paul Wulff and CSU's Steve Fairchild) save their jobs with bowl visits. The Cougs look like one of the most-improved teams in the nation and can go bowling for the first time since 2003. As for the Rams, Saturday's wild OT win over Utah State puts them at 3-1, and we already see four extremely winnable games (San Jose State, UTEP, UNLV, and Wyoming) remaining on the slate.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO (Dec. 17 at Boise, MAC vs. WAC): Nevada vs. Toledo...It's about time "potato" became part of the name of the Boise bowl, no? Ironically, hometown Boise State can't even be eligible for this game because it has moved to the Mountain West, and the bowl contract calls for another WAC vs. MAC matchup. This year, we believe the Wolf Pack returns for the first time since 2006, perhaps to face Toledo.

NEW ORLEANS (Dec. 17 at New Orleans, Sun Belt vs. MAC): Bowling Green vs. Florida International...The Golden Panthers were shocked last week by the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns but still look like the team to beat in the Belt. Bowling Green appears likely to return to the bowl mix after missing by a mile in last year's 2-10 fiasco.

BEEF O'BRADY'S ST. PETERSBURG (Dec. 20 at St. Pete, Big East vs. CUSA): Pittsburgh vs. UCF...The Golden Knights were fancying themselves as a longshot BCS Buster before dropping their last two vs. FIU and BYU. They'll provide a welcome regional presence at the Trop against Pitt, which doesn't look like a top-tier bowl team.

POINSETTIA (Dec. 21 at San Diego, Mountain West vs. WAC): Fresno State vs. San Diego State...These two reunite again as conference foes next season after having previously been affiliated in the old PCAA and an earlier version of the WAC.

MAACO LAS VEGAS (Dec. 22 at Las Vegas, Mountain West vs. Pac-12): TCU vs. Cal...The Frogs' BCS dreams have likely already been broken by the opening defeat at Baylor, and a loss in November at TCU probably sends the Frogs to Las Vegas before they abandon the Mountain for good. Cal's weekend loss at Washington suggests another lower-tier bowl is probably in store for Jeff Tedford.

SHERATON HAWAII (Dec. 24 at Honolulu, WAC vs. CUSA): Hawaii vs. Southern Miss...We admit to not being yet convinced that Hawaii is going to get bowl-eligible and qualify for its home-field bowl. Southern Miss might be thinking it is bound for the Liberty Bowl spot reserved for the CUSA champ, but Honolulu would be a nice consolation prize.

INDEPENDENCE (Dec. 26 at Shreveport, ACC vs. Mountain West): North Carolina vs. La Tech...Very provisional call with North Carolina, which might still end up ineligible for the postseason. We're predicting a horse-trade of sorts with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco involving Mountain West Air Force to fill at-large spot in that game for emerging La Tech, playing very close to home.

LITTLE CAESAR'S (Dec. 27 at Detroit, MAC vs. Big Ten): Ohio vs. Penn State...Frank Solich has had his problems in bowls with the Bobcats but we suspect he gets another chance in December, perhaps in Detroit and perhaps vs. Penn State. Would this really be where Joe Paterno's storied career could come to an end, in a bowl game named after a pizza?

BELK CHARLOTTE (Dec. 27 at Charlotte, ACC vs. Big East): Wake Forest vs. West Virginia...This one used to be known as the Meineke, which has switched allegiance (more on that in a moment). We noted last year how much the Big East bowl assignments drop after the BCS slot; this might be the most-desirable of the available lot for WVU if it doesn't win the league. Meanwhile, we think Jim Grobe can steer Wake to six wins and a postseason return.

MILITARY (Dec. 28 at Washington, D.C, ACC vs. Navy): Maryland vs. Navy...The Mids' rotating bowl assignments land in close-by D.C. this year. A match vs. Maryland would provide lots of local flavor, although we wonder about the Terps after their blowout loss to Temple.

HOLIDAY (Dec. 28 at San Diego, Big XII vs. Pac-12): Texas A&M vs. Arizona State...These two might still be thinking they can sneak into the BCS mix but we think this assignment is more likely.

CHAMPS SPORTS (Dec. 29 at Orlando, ACC vs. Big East): Florida State vs. Cincinnati...FSU's national title hopes are completely up in smoke already and the Noles' BCS hopes have been marginalized as well. This might be a good matchup, however. vs. the lively Bearcats.

ALAMO (Dec. 29 at San Antonio, Big XII vs. Pac-12): Texas vs. Utah...The Horns return to bowl action this year but the upper crust of the Big XII is going to be hard to crack for one of the high-profile events. Utah will find consolation bowl dates to be upgraded in the Pac-12 from its previous assignments in the Mountain West.

ARMED FORCES (Dec. 30 at Dallas, BYU vs. CUSA): BYU vs. Tulsa...We weren't quite sure about BYU qualifying for bowl action until the win over UCF; now we'd be surprised if the Cougs don't make it. Look for Tulsa's season to begin to straighten out after a brutal non-conference slate (top ten Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State...whew!) in September.

YANKEE PINSTRIPE (Dec. 30 at Bronx, NY, Big East vs. Big XII): Rutgers vs. Missouri...Greg Schiano looks to be maneuvering Rutgers back into the bowl mix after last year's absence. Mizzou's sights are already aiming at this level after losses at Arizona State and Oklahoma. This one at Yankee Stadium, and the Boise Famous Potato Bowl, are the only two bowls at acknowledged cold-weather sites.

MUSIC CITY (Dec. 30 at Nashville, SEC vs. ACC): Arkansas vs. Miami-Florida...Provisional pick here for Miami, which might decide to ban itself form the postseason to help with likely NCAA sanctions on the horizon. This certainly doesn't appear to be a BCS-type year for the Canes. Meanwhile, Arkansas will have to really adjust its bowl sights downward if it loses this week to Texas A&M at Jerry Jones Stadium.

INSIGHT (Dec. 30 at Tempe, Big Ten vs. Big XII): Northwestern vs. Iowa State...The Wildcats are scheduled to get QB Dan Persa back in action this week, which might be a necessity to get NU bowl-eligible this season. ISU is already halfway to the six wins needed for bowl qualification.

MEINEKE CAR CARE TEXAS (Dec. 31 at Houston, Big XII vs. Big Ten): Texas Tech vs. Iowa...Note that Meineke has switched allegiance from Charlotte to Houston for this year's bowl sponsorship. This seems about the right spot for both the Red Raiders and Hawkeyes to land.

SUN (Dec. 31 at El Paso, ACC vs. Pac-12): Clemson vs. Washington...Of course, at this moment, Clemson folks think the Tigers are BCS-bound, but we think this is a more-likely destination in El Paso. U-Dub remains an intriguing Pac-12 darkhorse that might earn something better than this trip.

LIBERTY (Dec. 31 at Memphis, CUSA vs. SEC): Houston vs. Mississippi State...Watch to see if Cougar HC Kevin Sumlin gets on a short list for any high-profile openings. MSU's longshot BCS hopes are already out the window but would be an appealing regional choice for this game in Memphis.

KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER (Dec. 31 at San Francisco, Army vs. Pac-12): Kansas State vs. Air Force...Since we are unsure if Army or an 8th Pac-12 team become bowl-eligible, we fill in this one with Bill Snyder's Kansas State and Air Force, which does a flip with La Tech to let the Bulldogs play close to home at Shreveport in the Independence Bowl spot that was to be reserved for a Mountain West team. The Falcs would also nicely fill the service academy slot for this game.

CHICK-FIL-A (Dec. 31 at Atlanta, ACC vs. SEC): Virginia Tech vs. Georgia...This matchup would intrigue for two reasons. First, it means we think someone other than the Hokies is going to win the ACC and qualify for the BCS (you'll have to read on for that secret to be unveiled). It also suggests that Mark Richt will do enough this fall with Georgia to save his job (although this bowl likely the cut-off point).

TICKETCITY (Jan. 2 at Dallas, CUSA vs. Big Ten): SMU vs. Michigan State...This mathcup would provide some needed local flavor with nearby SMU, playing in its old home stadium. We suspect the Spartans are bowl-bound, but down the pecking order in this year's Big Ten postseason slate.

OUTBACK (Jan. 2 at Tampa, Big Ten vs. SEC): Illinois vs. Florida...We would simply love the dynamics of this one with Ron Zook facing the school that fired him after the 2004 season.

CAPITAL ONE (Jan. 2 at Orlando: Big Ten vs. SEC): Michigan vs. South Carolina...Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks have had a tough time in bowls the past few years. This assignment would also confirm a quick resurrection of Wolverine football fortunes under first-year HC Brady Hoke.

GATOR (Jan. 2 at Jacksonville, Big Ten vs. SEC): Tennessee vs. Ohio State...Ohio State, like Miami and North Carolina, is a provisional pick, although the Buckeyes seemed to have dodged the most-serious NCAA bullets. But Luke Fickell's OSU is not good enough to get back into the BCS this season. This date would signify some progress made by Derek Dooley's regime at UT. By the way, we like the new sponsor name for this one...Taxslayer.com.

ROSE (Jan. 2 at Pasadena, BCS vs. BCS): Nebraska vs. Stanford...The Huskers' welcome to the Big Ten will be complete with an invitation to the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck and Stanford gets to the Arroyo Seco on New Year's (or Jan. 2, as it may) for the first time in 12 years and only the second time since 1972.

FIESTA (Jan. 2 at Glendale, AZ, BCS vs. BCS): LSU vs. Boise State...Somewhere along the way, LSU is going to lose a game, and this year it will mean blowing a chance at the BCS title matchup; remember, the Tigers got to the finale in 2007 with two regular-season losses. Boise has few obstacles other than perhaps TCU in its way for a BCS return and third trip to the Fiesta, where it has won twice before.

SUGAR (Jan. 3 at New Orleans, BCS vs. BCS): Alabama vs. Oregon...Ditto for Bama, which will have lost once this season and be denied a BCS title game shot. A matchup vs. Oregon would certainly pit the immovable object (Tide "D") vs. the irresistible force (Ducks'"O").

ORANGE (Jan. 4 at Miami, BCS vs. BCS): Georgia Tech vs. South Florida...The ACC race looks better than we envisioned this season, and we suspect Paul Johnson can get Tech back to the BCS for a second time in three years. Skip Holtz' stock will shoot through the roof if he can steer South Florida to the Big East title and the BCS.

BBVA COMPASS (Jan. 6 at Birmingham, Big East vs. SEC): Syracuse vs. Auburn...What a letdown this will be for the Tigers, all of the way from last year's BCS title game. But Auburn would guarantee a good gate, unless fans are so repulsed at the idea of watching Syracuse that they stay away. Does anyone else remember the last time these two faced off in a bowl, a highly-unsatisfying 16-16 tie in the Jan. 1, 1988 Sugar Bowl? We still haven't forgiven Pat Dye for settling for a meaningles tie with a field goal instead of going for the win in the final seconds.

GODADDY.COM (Jan. 8 at Mobile, Sun Belt vs. MAC): Troy vs. Temple...This would be a decent matchup, although most guys will tune in for all of the commercials featuring GoDaddy girls Danica Patrick and Jillian Michaels, plus, if rumor is correct, US soccer goalie Hope Solo.

BCS TITLE GAME (Jan. 9 at New Orleans, BCS vs. BCS): Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin...By our reckoning, these are going to be the two biggest names remaining undefeated. And don't even think about the hell that would break loose if a one-loss SEC team was picked for this game over either of these two.

Stay tuned...

[StarDust Bum]

Baylor Bears At Texas A&M Aggies Big 12 Preview

Fewer than 100 miles separate the two campuses geographically. The trip takes less than two hours by car, and that includes a quick stop at the Dairy Queen in Calvert.

Philosophically, Texas A&M and Baylor are about as far apart as two universities can be. In layman's terms, it's the hell-raisin', gun-totin' rednecks against the God-fearin', Bible-totin' Baptists.

The differences have turned a bit ugly recently, and that should add to Saturday's meeting between the Aggies and Bears at Kyle Field. College football oddsmakers set the chasm between the schools on the gridiron at -8½ in favor of Texas A&M to open up the betting. That spread has since widened to 9-9½ at many shops.

The same oddsmakers also noted perhaps the one similarity the two schools share – potent offenses – and got things started with a total in the 75-76 point range, the highest number on the college football betting board in Week 7. It could be 80 and I'd still like the 'over.'

To fully understand what caused this heated rivalry between two neighbors, one has to study Texas mythology, er, history. It then depends who is telling the story. If you are listening to an Aggie, you will hear about a time years ago when Texas A&M was all-male, all-military, and a few of its fine strapping young men ventured north on Highway 6 to visit some Baylor coeds. They insist their intentions were honorable and they behaved like southern gentlemen.

And then the fight started.

From a Bears fan you will hear about a bunch of drunk Aggies coming to Waco looking for trouble and hoping to corrupt the minds (and bodies) of a few lovely, and totally innocent, coeds. The Baylor men were simply offering assistance to ladies in distress.

And then the fight started.

That fight just might be concluded on the football field in this matchup. Call it Round 108 in a bout that started in 1899. Texas A&M is set to join the SEC next summer, a move Baylor recently threatened legal action to block.

Texas A&M has dominated the series with a 67-31-9 all-time record, and the Aggies will be looking for their third straight win against Baylor.

They were a play away from suffering their third consecutive defeat of 2011 last week in Lubbock. Make that their third consecutive humiliating defeat. If not for a touchdown return of a blocked field goal in the third quarter, the Aggies would have endured yet another second-half collapse to Texas Tech like the previous two games against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

Instead Texas A&M held on for a 45-40 win over the Red Raiders. Ryan Tannehill was held under 200 yards through the air for the first time this year, with the Aggies turning to their ground game to counter a tough Raiders pass defense. Meanwhile, the A&M defense was torched for over 500 yards by Tech, nearly 400 of that via the pass.

Baylor was also getting back into the win column last week following a disappointing loss to Kansas State. Robert Griffin III and the Bears also went to the ground in a 49-26 triumph over Iowa State, rolling up more than 600 yards of offense with nearly 400 of that from the running game.

Tannehill and Griffin have to be licking their chops. Say 'Aggie defense' to any college quarterback these days, and they'll start to drool faster and harder than Pavlov's dog at a bell-choir concert. Texas A&M does rank seventh nationally in allowing a little less than 77 yards per game on the ground, but the Aggies are dead last in the passing game with their opponents averaging close to 350 yards per game.

Baylor's stop unit, for lack of a better term, is a bit more balanced but it still adds up to mediocrity on the stats page, 60th out of 120 FBS schools in total defense. The Bears are 82nd in the land giving up almost 170 yards per game on the ground, something the Aggies no doubt want to exploit.

The Aggies could be missing three key players for Saturday's game. Jeff Fuller, A&M's all-time leading receiver, is questionable after suffering a concussion in the game at Texas Tech. That was a major reason why Tannehill and the Aggies passing game wasn't up to snuff in the second half, and his potential absence is the only reason not to like the 'over' in this week's battle.

Safety Steven Campbell (leg injury) is likely out for a second straight game after being hurt in the loss to Arkansas, and linebacker Damontre Moore (stinger) is questionable.

Kickoff in College Station is set for noon (Eastern) and will be televised by FX. The weatherman says it's going to be a bit warm with the afternoon high reaching 88 under clear skies.

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin Hosts Indiana In Potential Trap Game

The Wisconsin Badgers have a proverbial trap game when they host the Indiana Hoosiers from Camp Randall Stadium at noon (ET) on Saturday afternoon.

The Don Best college football odds have Wisconsin as huge 39-point favorites, with the total still to be released.

The Badgers (5-0 straight up, 4-0-1 against the spread) last played an emotional home tilt against Nebraska, turning a 14-7 second quarter deficit into a 48-17 blowout as 9 ½-point favorites. Tough road games at Michigan State and Ohio State come up next.

Coach Bret Bielema at least had a bye week to settle his Badgers down and make sure they don’t look past the Hoosiers. A lot of national accolades are coming their way being ranked fourth in both the AP and Coaches Poll. Advances by Stanford and LSU in the Don Best Linemakers Poll resulted in the Badgers dropping two spots to fifth following the bye week.

The numbers don’t lie for Wisconsin, ranking third in the nation in both scoring offense (48.4 PPG) and defense (10.2 PPG). The offense is certainly the stronger unit with Heisman candidate Russell Wilson brilliant after transferring from NC State and a running game (242.6 YPG, ninth nationally) that is perpetually great.

The defense held down Nebraska despite missing three starters, picking off quarterback Taylor Martinez three times. It also held the lightning-fast Martinez to 61 rushing yards on 20 attempts, although running back Rex Burkhead did have 96 yards.

The three missing starters were cornerback Devin Smith, defensive end David Gilbert and safety Shelton Johnson. Smith has been out the last few weeks (and is out for the season), but has been replaced nicely by Marcus Cromartie. Gilbert (foot) is out several more weeks and Johnson (leg) is questionable, but solid team depth allows the drop-off to be minimal.

The defense still hasn’t played a top-30 ranked offense in total yards. It has also had the benefit of playing four home games and a neutral site contest against Northern Illinois in Chicago.

Wisconsin is 11-0-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The ‘over’ is 3-2 on the year and 20-7-1 in its last 28 conference games.

The Hoosiers (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) are a team is disarray and not just because of their record. The only win so far is against FCS South Carolina State. Running backs Nick Turner and Antonio Banks, plus d-tackle Marlandez Harris have left the program, while cornerback Peter St. Fort is suspended indefinitely.

None of those losses are huge on the field, but it’s another challenge for first-year coach Kevin Wilson are he tries to build a successful program after being Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator.

Wilson unfortunately doesn’t have a signal caller like Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford or even Landry Jones. Edward Wright-Baker started the first four games before hurting his ankle. Fellow sophomore Dusty Kiel started last two games, 16-10 and 41-20 home losses to Penn State and Illinois respectively, but hurt his ankle against the Illini last Saturday.

True freshman Tre Roberson was 11-of-17 for 148 yards in relief last week. He’s a dual threat guy and arguably the most intriguing. Both Kiel and Wright-Baker are probable this week and Wilson could choose any of the three options this week, although none will scare the Badgers.

The quarterbacks will not get much help from the nation’s 92nd ranked rushing attack (118.8 YPG). That translates into just 3.1 yards per carry. The defense ranks 97th in total yards (421.5 YPG) and this will be its biggest challenge to date by far.

The Hoosiers have played just one true road game this year, an embarrassing 24-21 loss to Sun Belt North Texas as 5 ½-point favorites. They went 1-3 SU and ATS on the road in the Big Ten last year.

Wisconsin has won the meetings the last six years, going 4-1 ATS in the last five. Last year’s game was an 83-20 laugher in Madison as 22 ½-point favorites. Bielema got a lot of media criticism for running up the score. He could be more careful about that this Saturday.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three meetings and 9-1 in the last 10.

Early weather predictions have partly cloudy weather that could be in the 60s. That’s great for mid-October in normally chilly Madison.

[StarDust Bum]

Michigan Takes Unbeaten Mark To Michigan State

The 11th-ranked Michigan Wolverines are one of three unbeaten teams left in the Big Ten conference and just 13 overall across the country heading into Saturday’s intrastate matchup with the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans. The Wolverines (6-0, 2-0 Big Ten) have lost the last three meetings with the Spartans, who are coming off an extra week of preparation following a bye week.

Michigan’s first year under head coach Brady Hoke has been a success, as the team became bowl eligible with a 42-24 comeback victory at Northwestern last Saturday. An ugly first half in which quarterback Denard Robinson threw three interceptions was quickly forgotten after he rushed for touchdowns in the third and fourth quarters to help the Wolverines erase a 24-14 deficit and outscore the Wildcats 28-0 the rest of the way.

Robinson did not play well in his last game against Michigan State (4-1, 1-0) either, throwing three picks and contributing two touchdowns in a 34-17 home loss. The Spartans covered as 5-point road underdogs in that game and saw the total go ‘under’ 64 ½ points.

Michigan State opened as a 3-point home favorite for this year’s rivalry game according to the Don Best odds screen, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN. The Spartans have covered each of the last three meetings with Michigan as well and hope to stay unbeaten in Big Ten play following a 10-7 win at Ohio State on October 1.

They would leapfrog Michigan for the lead in the Legends Division with a win.

Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins was solid against the Buckeyes two weeks ago with 250 yards and one touchdown, but he also threw two interceptions. Cousins connected with wide receiver B.J. Cunningham nine times for 154 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown with 7:44 remaining in the first quarter.

Cunningham had five catches for 40 yards in last year’s meeting with the Wolverines while Cousins completed 18 of 25 passes for 284 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Cousins has won his previous two starts against the Wolverines and will try to make it through his four-year career without a loss to them.

The main strength for the Spartans so far this season has been a defense that ranks first in the FBS in least yards allowed, giving up an average of just 173.4 per game. They are also tied for third in least points allowed with 10.2 per game and have been very difficult to score on outside of a 31-13 loss at Notre Dame on September 17. The team’s other three opponents have scored seven points or less.

A cloudy, cool and possibly wet day is in the East Lansing forecast for Saturday. he afternoon high is expected to only climb into the low-to-mid 50s.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac 12 Notebook

October 10, 2011

Week 6 Rewind

The Pac 12 continued its lackluster season with just one game in Week 6 that had fans on the edge of their seats.

The slate started Thursday and California gave Oregon all it could handle - for a half. The Bears took a one-point lead into the locker room but the Ducks came out after halftime and scored touchdowns in their first four drives, amassing 294 total yards in the process. The win came with a price as running back LaMichael James went down with a dislocated elbow.

Oregon State picked up its first win of the season as it built a 30-6 lead against Arizona and held on for the win. The Wildcats won the yardage battle 431-408 but they committed four turnovers in a span of four straight possessions to take them out of the game. Arizona has lost 10 straight games against FBS teams going back to last year.

Arizona State has taken control of the Pac 12 South with just UCLA standing in its way following a with over Utah. The Sun Devils outgained the Utes 399-320 but they needed a late surge to get the win as they scored the final 25 points of the game. Utah killed itself as it committed five turnovers which led to 22 points for the Sun Devils.

Colorado was ready to jump on top of Stanford but the Cardinal blocked a 29-yard field goal and returned it for a touchdown. The Buffaloes cut the Stanford lead to 13-7 but the Cardinal scored the next five touchdowns. Colorado had late chances but missed another field goal and threw an interception at the Stanford 30-yard line.

Washington State and UCLA went back and forth all game before the Bruins tacked on a touchdown with 3:26 remaining to take the lead for good. The Cougars had one last shot but threw an interception with two minutes left and the Bruins ran out the clock. Washington St. outgained UCLA 389-371 but settled for four field goals.

Hot Seat?

This spot is normally kept for UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel but the Bruins are now 2-1 and right in the hunt of the Pac 12 South.

The coach with the hottest seat now belongs to Arizona's Mike Stoops. The Wildcats have dropped five straight games and only one of those was within single digits. As mentioned, they have dropped 10 straight games against FBS opponents and to be honest, Stoops has not done a whole lot in his eight years.

His career record at Arizona is 41-50 and he has taken them to just three bowl games, losing the last two by a combined score of 69-10.

"Things aren’t going our way right now, and that’s kind of where it’s at," coach Mike Stoops shrugged.

That is the quote of a lame duck coach that is on his way out. The Wildcats will be a good fade the rest of the way.

Injury News

The Pac 12 has been hit with injuries all season and it has continued the last couple weeks.

Utah lost quarterback Jordan Wynn last week to a shoulder injury and his replacement Jon Hayes showed his inexperience against Arizona St.

This week the Bruins lost starting quarterback Richard Brehaut to a broken leg and his return is in question. Kevin Prince did a good job in rallying the Bruins to a victory and now the quarterback controversy may finally be over.

Colorado receiver Paul Richardson is out for 2-3 weeks with a sprained knee. This is a major hit for an offense that is already struggling as he is arguably the Buffaloes top receiver.

Obviously the biggest blow was in Oregon when LaMichael James dislocated his elbow. X-rays were negative but James will be out for a few weeks and the Ducks are hoping to have him back when they face Stanford in a month.

Game of the Week

The Pac 12 is in the Thursday spotlight again this week with USC travelling to California but the big game takes place Saturday night when Arizona St. and Oregon face off in what could be the first of two meetings if they win their respective divisions and meet in the Pac 12 Championship.

The Ducks have covered all three of its FBS games since losing its season opener against LSU while Arizona St. is just 2-3 against the number. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points while the Ducks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater so something will have to give.

Oregon is a 15.5-point chalk and has won six straight meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

College Notebook

October 11, 2011

Air Force...Falcons, who ranked a poor 113rd vs. run entering last week's Notre Dame game, were further thinned at LB when starter Ken Lamendola sat out vs. Irish with hamstring. AFA was already minus LB starter Patrick Hennessey with a thumb injury. And “ND" was a problem again for Falcons in 59-33 loss at South Bend.

Arizona...Cats have dismissed HC Mike Stoops after 1-5 beginning to 2011 campaign. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish will take over as coach on an interim basis for the remainder of the season. Star WR Juron Criner was KO'd in first half of 37-27 loss at Oregon State with a knee injury. Tough afternoon at office for Cats, who also saw Starters LG Chris Putton (ankle) and DT Justin Washington (knee) KO'd in Corvallis.

Auburn...Leading WR Emory Blake (19 catches for 333 yards) missed Arkansas game with a knee injury. Absence didn't help Tigers in 38-14 loss.

Ball State...The Cards' secondary should apply for federal aid. Already nicked up in the defensive backfield with assorted injuries that have kept out numerous players, Ball State was minus starters S Sean Baker (shoulder) and CB Josh Howard (concussion) in Saturday's 42-0 loss to Temple.

Boston College...Star RB Montel Harris re-aggravated his knee injury and sat out last week's 36-14 loss at Clemson. Worse for Eagles was that RB Williams, who emerged as BC's top rusher (313 YR) in Harris' earlier absence, was also out vs. Tigers with ankle injury. BC had also been juggling its OL in recent weeks with recurring back injury of G Nate Richman.

Boise State...As if Broncos need another weapon, long-striding 6'4 Dutch soph Geraldo Boldewijn made quite an impression in his first game since becoming eligible, catching 2 TD passes from Kelln Moore in Friday's 57-7 romp past Fresno State.

BYU...HC Broncos Mendenhall opted for sr. Riley Nelson over soph Jake Heaps at QB last Saturday vs. San Jose State. Nelson went the whole way vs. Spartans, tossing 3 TDs (but also 2 picks) in 29-16 Cougar win.

Clemson...Soph QB Tajh Boyd went down with a hip injury in 3rd Q of 36-14 win over BC. Replaced by true frosh Cole Stoudt (son of former NFL QB Cliff), who completed 6 of 10 passes for 37 yards vs. Eagles. No word yet on Boyd's status for Maryland game this week. "Cole's fine," said o.c. Chad Morris afterward about his backup. "We've got to make sure that we continue to push him."

Colorado...Five Buffaloes were suspended by HC Jon Embree prior to last week's 48-7 loss at Stanford, though only one, CB Paul Orms (who had missed the previous Wash. State game with a leg injury), was a starter. Buffs have been decimated in secondary, forced to move offensive converts Jason Espinoza (former WR) and Brian Lockridge (former RB) into secondary after broken leg suffered by CB Travis Sunderland and other minor injury concerns. CU has also been starting a true frosh CB, Greg Henderson, who was burned for the late TD pass which cost Buffs in the Oct. 1 loss to Washington State.

Florida...HC Will Muschamp was down to his third QB option last week at LSU. Starter John Brantley (ankle) was KO'd previous week vs. Alabama and might miss a couple of more games, but true frosh backup Jeff Driskel also had an ankle injury that kept him sidelined at Baton Rouge. True frosh Jacoby Brissett was next in line, and Charlie Weis' Gator aerial show was limited, as Brissett completed 8 of 14 passes with a TD and 2 picks in 41-11 loss to Tigers.

Florida Atlantic...HC Howard Schnellenberger pulled ineffective QB Graham Wilbert in 2nd half last week at North Texas after Wilbert completed only 10 of 30 passes and tossed back-to-back pick TDs in 3rd Q of 31-17 loss to Mean Green. Backup David Kooi fared better in mop-up duty, completing 6 of 9 for a TD and giving Schnellenberger something to think about at QB before Owls' home debut in new stadium on Saturday vs. WKU.

Florida State...HC Jimbo Fisher inserted QB EJ Manuel into lineup late in 2nd Q last week at Wake Forest after indicating Manuel would miss another game with a shoulder injury. But starter Clint Trickett's ineffectiveness forced Jimbo's hand. Manuel completed 19 of 25 passes for 286 yards and 2 TDs, but also suffered 2 picks in 35-30 loss to Deacs.

Georgia Tech...Jackets getting a little thin at LB, with impact starter OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (God bless you!) and former-RB-turned-MLB Daniel Drummond both out last week vs. Maryland with leg injuries.

Hawaii...Warriors hope to have explosive slot-back Jeremiah Ostrowski, UH's leading receiver early in season before going down with foot injury, available for Friday's game at San Jose State.

Kentucky...It's gone from bad to worse for HC Joker Phillips, who yanked QB Morgan Newton for a third straight week in Saturday's 54-3 loss at South Carolina. True frosh Maxwell Smith continues to be an ineffective alternative, however, as Cats ended with as many completions (4) as picks (4) in ugly defeat. Newton again returned to lineup in 2nd half after Smith's poor performance.

Maryland...HC Randy Edsall pulled ineffective starting QB Danny O'Brien in 2nd Q last week at Georgia Tech. RS soph backup C.J. Brown took a while to ignite and only completed 4 of 17 passes in relief, but got Terps moving in 4th Q and ended up with 124 YR (including a 77-yard TD run) as late Maryland rally fell short in 21-16 loss.

Middle Tennessee...Blue Raiders getting a bit nicked up at RB, with top rusher Benjamin Cunningham (276 YR) missing Thursday's loss to Western Kentucky with a foot injury and expected to be out 4-6 weeks, and D.D. Kyles also injured his leg late vs. Tops. Soph William Pratcher, however, stepped in nicely vs. WKU with 106 YR.

Minnesota...Skidding Gophers regained services of QB MarQueis Gray last week at Purdue, as he came on in relief of ineffective true frosh starter Max Shortell late in 1nd Q of ugly 45-17 loss at Purdue. Gray, sidelined with a toe injury previously, completed 8 of 20 vs. Boilermakers but was victimized by a pick for a TD by Purdue DB Ricardo Allen on his first series of the game.

Mississippi State...HC Dan Mullen yanked ineffective starting QB Chris Relf in 3rd Q last week at UAB, then watched RS soph Tyler Russell ignite Bulldogs immediately upon his entrance into game, leading a TD drive on first possession and ending up with 3 TD passes in 21-3 win over Blazers.

Navy...Rugged top rusher Alexander Teich (406 YR) was suspended for disciplinary reasons by HC Ken Niumatalolo last week vs. Southern Miss. Midshipmen still gained 421 rushing yards but lost 63-35 to Golden Eagles.

Nevada...Leading rusher Mike Ball (374 YR) was held out of Fremont Cannon battle vs. UNLV with ankle injury. That didn't hurt Wolf Pack in 37-0 romp past Rebels, however. Neither did absence of PK Anthony Martinez (hip), as replacement Allen Hardison kicked three FGs in satisfying rout over hated rival.

Ohio State...True frosh QB Braxton Miller, who had impressed much of the night, was KO'd by a knee injury in 2nd half last Saturday at Nebraska. Backup and former starter Joe Bauserman was again ineffective in relief, completing just 1-of-10 passes as Buckeyes blew a 27-6 lead in eventual numbing 34-27 loss to Cornhuskers. OSU hopes to regain services of RB Dan Herron from suspension this week vs. Illinois.

Oregon...Nation's leading rusher LaMichael James exited last Thursday's 43-15 win over Cal with dislocated elbow that might keep him out a few weeks. Capable backups De'Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner should effectively pick up slack if James misses upcoming action, such as this week vs. Arizona State.

Oregon State...With top rusher Malcolm Agnew still sidelined with hamstring problems, RS soph Jovan Stevenson stepped up and finally gave Beavers a ground game last week vs. Arizona, gaining 99 YR in 37-27 win over Cats, OSU's first success of season. Stevenson, however, suffered a mild concussion late in game, so check status for BYU game this week.

San Jose State...RB Brandon Rutley, among nation's rush leaders with 501 yards, sat out last Saturday's game at BYU with a sprained ankle. San Jose infantry bogged down in his absence vs. Cougars.

South Carolina...The latest benching of QB Stephen Garcia (4 TDP, 9 picks) by HC Steve Spurrier might be a permanent one, based upon soph Connor Shaw's 4 TDP performance in Gamecocks' 54-3 romp past Kentucky last Saturday. SC's 639 yards of offense vs. the Cats were the most by an SC team since Spurrier arrived in 2005.

Southern Miss...Leading rusher Kendrick Harvey (shoulder) missed last week's game at Navy, but Golden Eagles didn’t skip a beat with Jeremy Hester's 118 YR and 82 more from Trey Lampley in 63-35 rout of Mids at Annapolis.

Tennessee...Top RB Tauren Poole went down with a hamstring injury on first half of last week's 20-12 loss vs. Georgia. Vols could not generate any infantry production in his absence, finishing with -20 YR. QB Tyler Bray then suffered a thumb injury deep in the 4th Q and was replaced by Matt Simms, who led Vols to a late TD. Bray could miss up to 6 weeks, with Simms (who started the first portion of the 2010 season) back in the lineup until further notice.

Texas Tech...Red Raiders were minus leading rusher RB Eric Stephens (555 YR and 8 TDs) with a knee injury last week vs. Texas A&M.

UAB...Blazers were again minus QB Bryan Ellis (concussion) last week vs. Mississippi State. But UAB has covered three straight games with backup QB Jonathan Perry at controls.

UCLA...Bruins have lost QB Richard Brehaut for at least a few weeks after ankle injury suffered last week vs. Washington State. Former starter Kevin Prince, who has durability issues, stepped in nicely vs. Cougars, however, completing 8 of 13 passes and tossing 2 TDs as Bruins rallied for 28-25 win.

Utah...QB Jordan Wynn is now expected to miss the rest of the season after his shoulder injury suffered Oct. 1 vs. Washington. Backup Jon Hays has been uninspiring in relief, tossing 3 picks in Saturday 35-14 loss to Arizona State, the second straight home defeat for disappointing Utes, still looking for their first conference win as a member of Pac-12 (Utah 0-3 in league play).

[StarDust Bum]

QB Garcia dismissed from So. Carolina

October 11, 2011

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) - South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia has been dismissed from the Gamecocks.

Athletic director Eric Hyman said the fifth-year senior failed to meet agreed-upon guidelines put in place after Garcia's fifth suspension this past spring.

Garcia had started 34 games, including four this season before he was benched in favor of sophomore Connor Shaw. Shaw threw for four touchdowns and 311 yards in a 54-3 victory over Kentucky this past Saturday.

Garcia wore a black baseball cap on the sidelines against the Wildcats, encouraging Shaw and patting him on the back.

Coach Steve Spurrier said Garcia was given several chances to be a student athlete at South Carolina and it was sad he could not live up to that commitment.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 7

October 11, 2011

Thursday, Oct. 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SAN DIEGO STATE at AIR FORCE...Aztecs have covered last two in series but have failed to cover their last three games this season. Falcs only 2-7 vs. line last nine at home. Slight to SDSU, based on recent AFA home woes.

SOUTHERN CAL at CAL...Trojans actually played here at the ballpark in the 2009 Emerald Bowl before it was the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Bears have not beaten SC since Tedford's second Cal team in 2003, arguably Tedford's high-water mark in his Berkeley tenure. Trojans 5-1 vs. line last 6 meetings. Trojans, however, just 9-21-1 last 31 vs. number (6-11-1 under Lane). Slight to SC, based on series trends.




Friday, Oct. 14

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE...San Jose 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY after 7-24 spread mark previous 31 on board. UH 4-2 vs. spread last 6 in series and 7-4 against line last 11 on mainland. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.




Saturday, Oct. 15

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

MIAMI-FLORIDA at NORTH CAROLINA...Canes covered LY vs. Heels after dropping spread decision previous 3 years. Al Golden teams 16-9 as dog since 2007. Slight to Miami, based on Al Golden dog trends.

PURDUE at PENN STATE...Teams last met in 2008. Shades 1-7 vs. line last 8 on board. Shades also just 4-9 vs. number last 13 at Happy Valley and 5-11 last 16 as home chalk. Danny Hope on 6-10-1 spread slide, however. Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

INDIANA at WISCONSIN...Why are these two playing at Madison again after Badgers' 83-20 win at Camp Randall LY? Bielema on 11-1 spread run since mid 2010 (only non-cover vs. UNLV!). Physical Badgers also 6-1 vs. line last 7 at home. Hoosiers only 1-4-1 vs. line last 6 meetings and 1-6 vs. points last 7 away from home. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

NAVY at RUTGERS...Mids 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Annapolis, 52-29 vs. spread away from home since 2000. If Niumatalolo a dog note his 9-2 spread mark last 11 in role. Rutgers has covered first five TY, however. Slight to Navy, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at DUKE...Teams haven't met since '07. FSU just 9-18 laying 7 or more since 2005 (4-4 for Jimbo). Cutcliffe on 8-3 spread run as dog. Duke, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at BOWLING GREEN...Nearby rivals! BG has covered 3 of last four meetings but is just 10-20 vs. spread at Doyt-Perry Stadium since 2005. Toledo 6-3 vs. line as visitor since LY. Toledo, based on team trends.

CLEMSON at MARYLAND...Interestingly, last 5 and 9 of last 10 in series all "under." Dabo 8-3 vs. line last 11 away from Death Valley and has won and covered last 3 TY. Edsall yet to translate his UConn spread success to College Park. Clemson, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at WAKE FOREST...Beamer on spread slide with 5 straight Ls. Worst Beamer spread skid since late '06-early '07. Teams don't meet every year but Beamer has dominated Grobe in four meetings since '04, winning and covering all. But note Grobe's 12-5 mark last 17 as home dog. Wake, based on Grobe marks.

GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Ugh! Cavs were 5-0-1 vs. line between 2003-08 against GT before losing and failing to cover last two. Cavs no covers last 4 TY, Paul Johnson 4-1 vs. line TY. GT, based on recent trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Spurrier only 12-14 last 26 on board. MSU no covers last 3 as home dog and no covers last 5 TY since opener. SC, based on team trends.

BUFFALO at TEMPLE...Temple has won last two big and covered last three vs. Buffalo. Bulls beat Ohio last week but still only 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on board. Owls 16-9 vs. line at Linc since 2007, 4-2 last 6 laying DD. Temple, based on team trends.

UNLV at WYOMING...Rebs have lost 12 straight away, 1-11 vs. spread in those, no closer than 23 in any. But Rebs have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Wyo. Wyo, based on UNLV road woes.

IOWA STATE at MISSOURI...Road team has covered last four in series. Teams mostly around .500 in other categories. Slight to ISU, based on recent series road trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Rugged EMU has covered four of its last five on road. Dan Enos' CMU 3-11 vs. line last 14 on board. EMU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at KENT STATE...Battle of the first-year MAC coaches. Miami-O 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY (but beat Army last week), though Kent State just 1-5 vs. spread itself in 2011 and 4-12 vs. number last 16 on board. Miami-O, based on extended team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU had covered 8 of 9 in series vs. WMU prior to narrow non-cover at Waldo LY. Broncos now on 7-game cover streak, nation's second best behind Stanford. WMU, based on recent trends.

UTAH at PITT...Utes on 2-8-1 spread slide since late 2010. Pitt, based on recent trends.

BYU at OREGON STATE...Beavs now starting to roll, with covers in their last two games. Although OSU just 3-6 vs. line last 9 at Corvallis. Slight to BYU, based on recent OSU woes.

ARIZONA STATE at OREGON...Ducks have won six straight in series and covered five of those, the lone non-cover by narrow margin LY. Ducks 13-4 last 17 vs. points at home. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS A&M...Aggies have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Bears only 3-6 vs. line last 9 away from Waco (0-1 TY), and Art Briles just 2-7 last nine as dog. A&M 12-5 vs. spread last 11 at Kyle Field (though 1-2 TY). A&M, based on team and series trends.

LSU at TENNESSEE...Derek Dooley 7-3 vs. line last nine reg.-season games. Les Miles 0-3-1 vs. line against Vols since arriving at LSU in 2005, although Tigers have covered their last four away from home. Slight to UT, based on team and series trends.

COLORADO at WASHINGTON...The "Former Teams Coached By Rick Neuheisel" Bowl. Buffs no covers last 8 as true visitor). Huskies on 8-1 spread uptick (8-0 against number vs. FBS foes) since late 2010. UW, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has won last three meetings and is 3-0-1 vs. spread last four vs. Wolverines. Mich. was 3-12 vs. spread away from home the past three Rodriguez years, but Wolves 3-1 vs. line for Hoke. Tend to downplay Rich-Rod Mich. spread marks. Slight to MSU, based on series and team trends.

OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS...Tended to really downplay the old Tressel OSU marks as they do not apply this year with Luke Fickell, now 3-3 vs. line. Among other things, Tressel had covered his last four games as a dog prior to this season. Ron Zook only 10-16 as Illini home chalk since arriving in 2005 (5-5 since last year in role). Buckeyes "under" 6-2 since late LY, Illini "under" 5-2 last 7 since late 2010. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

FLORIDA at AUBURN...Gators 6-3 vs. spread last 9 away from Swamp. Slight to Florida, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE vs. CINCINNATI (at Paul Brown Stadium)...Bearcats have won and covered last three meetings. Cincy 4-1 vs. line TY and a ferocious 3-0 vs. spread as host (though all of those at Nippert). But Charlie Strong 7-1 vs. line away since arriving at UL in 2010. Slight to Cincy, based on series trends.

BALL STATE at OHIO...Solich 16-9 vs. line last 25 as host. Cards actually 10-5 vs. line away since 2009, post-Brady Hoke. Slight to Solich, based on team trends.

UTEP at TULANE...Wave only 4-15 vs. spread last 19 at Superdome. But Bob Toledo has owned Mike Price lately, covering last four meetings. Miners on 4-game cover streak in 2011. Slight to Tulane, based on series trends.

ALABAMA at OLE MISS...Rebs have covered last two meetings after Bama had covered previous six. But Houston Nutt just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Oxford. Nicky on 27-12 spread uptick. Bama, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS...OU 11-7 vs. spread last 18 on board and has covered 4 of last 5 away from Norman. OU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at NEVADA...Wolf Pack 22-7 as Reno chalk since Chris Ault returned to sidelines in 2004. Lobos 2-5 vs. line last 7 on road. Nevada, based on team trends.

UCF at SMU...O'Leary was on 22-6 spread run until failing to cover last three. June Jones has covered last three in 2011 but only 6-10 vs. spread last 16 in Dallas. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE...Broncos now 11-1 vs. line last 12 away from blue carpet after Fresno demolition. CSU 1-4 vs. line TY, 7-16 last 23 on board, 5-10 last 15 as dog. Boise, based on team trends.

STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE...Tree on nation's-best 8-game cover streak since late 2010. Although they didn't cover LY vs. Cougs. Wazzu on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2010. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at VANDERBILT...Dores had dropped 10 straight vs. line at home vs. SEC foes prior to Ole Miss win. Dawgs have won and covered big the last two years (77-10 total) after Dores covered previous three. UGa 2-0 SU and vs. line as visitor TY. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS...Note that road team has covered last four in series, including OSU at Texas LY. OSU on 13-4 spread uptick since LY. OSU, based on team and series trends.

KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH..."Bill Snyder II" now 11-5 as dog since 2009. Tuberville only 1-3 as home chalk vs. FBS foes since arriving at Lubbock LY. KSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at UCONN...Skip just 2-8 last 10 as road chalk at USF & ECU. UConn 1-5 first 6 vs. line for Pasqualoni but 12-2 as home dog since 2005. Slight to UConn, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at MEMPHIS...Memphis 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at Liberty Bowl vs. FBS foes. ECU nine straight covers in series! ECU, based on series and team trends.

RICE at MARSHALL...Herd only 1-3 as chalk for Doc, though Rice on 1-7 spread slide last 8 as visitor. Slight to Marshall, based on Rice road woes.

NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Cats have won and covered last three meetings. Pat Fitzgerald 22-13 vs. line last 34 as dog since late 2006. NU, based on team trends.

IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE..Idaho has won last 3 SU vs. Ags and is 7-2 vs. line last 9 in series. Vandals also 11-5 last 16 vs. spread away from Kibbie Dome. DeWayne Walker 2-12 vs. line at home since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Idaho, based on team and series trends.
UAB at TULSA...Tulsa 6-2 last 8 as chalk. UAB has covered last two on road TY. Tulsa, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at FRESNO STATE...Pat Hill now a stunning 6-23 vs. spread last 29 on board at Dog House. USU has covered 5 of last 6 in series and Utags 19-8 vs. line away since 2007. USU, based on team and series trends.




Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NORTH TEXAS at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Note the dog has covered in first six Ragin' Cajun games this season; ULL was 10-4 as chalk since '07 entering this season but had dropped first two in role TY for Hudspeth. UNT covers last 4 TY. Slight to ULL, based on series trends.

UL-MONROE at TROY...ULM has played Troy fairly tough, covering 5 of last 7 meetings, but note home team has covered last 4 in series. Troy only 6-12 vs. line since LY, 1-6 vs. spread last 7 as host. ULM, based on recent trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Howard finally gets a game at home as the new FAU Owls Stadium opens! Owls were just 2-7 vs. line their last nine at Lockhart Stadium, however, and Howard only 9-20 last 29 on board. Tops 6-1 vs. line last 7 away from home. WKU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Boise State In MWC Opener At Colorado State

The Boise State Broncos (5-0) will travel to take on the Colorado State Rams (3-2) in their first-ever Mountain West Conference game Saturday night. Kickoff from Hughes Stadium in Fort Collins, CO, is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. (ET).

Oddsmakers opened the No. 6 team in the Don Best Linemakers Poll as 30 ½-point road favorites, which has actually been pushed up by a full point in the betting odds. The total for the game has fallen two points from its original number and settled at 54.

Boise State is 3-2 ATS on the year and coming off a 57-7 blowout win over Fresno State as 21-point road favorites a week ago. The Broncos have out-gained four of their five opponents this year in triple-digit fashion.

Many MWC insiders expect the team to continue its winning ways, as the program has just completed its fourth-straight undefeated regular season out-of-conference slate. The Broncos are 2-1 all-time when opening league play in a new conference.

Playing on the road hasn’t been a problem for head coach Chris Petersen’s squad, posting a 44-11 record away from Bronco Stadium since 2002. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore continues to be the leader offensively, ranking as the nation’s active career leader in wins (43), while also ranking second in career passing yards (12,258).

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have been downright dominating on third down, allowing opponents to convert just 16-of-66 (.242) tries, which leads the nation in that category.

Saturday’s contest will be the first meeting between the two schools, with Boise State coming in with a 17-4 ATS mark as a road favorite. Colorado State will be one of just three programs nationally to host two teams ranked in the AP’s top five since the beginning of the 2010 campaign, as the team dropped a 27-0 contest to the TCU Horned Frogs as 32 ½-point underdogs last year.

Injuries have been a huge problem around campus this year, losing six starters and 19 combined starts to injury already in the first half of the 2011 season.

Disrupting Moore is going to be a key to this game, as the Rams are third in the country by averaging 3.8 sacks a game, while the Broncos offensive line has allowed just two sacks in the team’s last 253 pass attempts.

Few would anticipate a straight-up victory for such a large underdog, but Colorado State is no stranger to facing ranked competition, registering a 13-25 record against such opponents since 1993.

Pete Thomas is a talented signal caller in his own right and needs just 173 passing yards to break into Colorado State’s top 10 in terms of career passing yards. He needs to get some help from a rushing attack that ranks last in the conference by averaging 99.2 yards per game.

Bettors will find that the Rams are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog, while going ‘over’ the total in five consecutive home games, including a 38-31 loss to the San Jose State Spartans that flew above the posted total of 44.

Early weather forecasts suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the upper-60s in the Fort Collins area. There’s also a slight 20 percent chance of precipitation.