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The Bum's Week # 7 CFB Best Bets 10/13-10/15 !

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  • #16
    LSU Tigers Laying 16 At Tennessee Volunteers

    Last week, it seemed as if LSU’s trip to Tennessee could be a potential banana peel for the Tigers in the march toward their November 5 SEC West showdown at Alabama.

    Now, however, the visit to Knoxville is looking like nothing more than a tuneup for Les Miles’ squad as it ramps up for Crimson Tide three weeks hence.

    Saturday’s battle between LSU (6-0; No. 4 Don Best Linemakers Poll) and the Volunteers (3-2) at Neyland Stadium is still high-profile enough for CBS to send Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson to call the action and feature as its national TV game of the week. The oddsmakers are not anticipating a competitive battle, with the Tigers priced at -16 at most Las Vegas sports books. The total is a low-ish 43½ for the 3:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff.

    Of course, nobody was expecting Tennessee to make much of a game of it last year, either, when these teams faced off in Baton Rouge for an early October battle. LSU was also rated as a 16-point choice that day but had to scramble (and that’s putting it mildly) for a heartstopping 16-14 win.

    Trailing 14-10 while at the Tennessee one-yard-line and the clock ticking down the final seconds, the confused Tigers could not properly execute a final play. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson had just re-entered the game in place of Jarrett Lee, who engineered most of the last-minute drive, mishandled the snap and the game appearing to end in the Volunteers’ favor.

    But, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friends. The Vols were flagged for having too many men – 13, to be exact...neat if you can get away with it – on the field, giving LSU one more untimed down from the one-yard line. Running back Stevan Ridley carried it in (though just barely) to give LSU the 16-14 win and tempt Vols coach Derek Dooley to hop into the cage of Mike the LSU Tiger after the game.

    But there are numerous reasons not to expect LSU to have similar difficulties in the rematch.

    First, it is highly unlikely that the Tigers will be overlooking the Volunteers after last year’s narrow escape.

    Second, unlike last season, this year’s LSU team has not been making a habit of waiting until the final moments to decide the outcome of its games. The Tigers’ average win is 28 points over their last three outings and 24.3 ppg in their six wins, with no contest being in doubt after the middle of the third quarter. It’s also the first time in school history that the Bayou Bengals have won each of their first six games by double-digit margins.

    Third, LSU is unlikely to be rattled by the tunes of Rocky Top in Knoxville after already beating three then-ranked foes (Oregon, Mississippi State and West Virginia) away from Baton Rouge.

    Fourth, and perhaps most important, Tennessee enters Saturday’s contest in a banged-up state.

    Not only have the Volunteers suffered injuries, but key performers have been going down. That’s been especially true with the offense, which will be minus its three top components this week. Top WR Justin Harper was lost for the season with a knee injury a couple of weeks ago, and is now joined by leading rusher Tauren Poole (hamstring) and QB Tyler Bray, who had to exit late in last week’s 20-12 loss to Georgia due to a broken thumb that could keep him out 4-6 weeks.

    At least Dooley has an experienced backup QB in Matt Simms, who started the first half of last season (including the near-upset at LSU) and led a late TD drive in relief of Bray last week vs. the Bulldogs. But Simms’ inconsistencies prompted Dooley’s switch to then-frosh Bray midway through last season, and Phil’s son has never demonstrated the sort of passing accuracy that Bray has consistently displayed, which is why Dooley made the switch in the first place.

    And after seeing the ground game stonewalled by Georgia last week – the Vols finished with -21 yards rushing, sinking to 114th in national rush stats – and now minus main threat Poole, it’s difficult to envision UT doing much business with its infantry against John Chavis’ voracious Tiger stop unit that ranks fourth nationally vs. the run (allowing a mere 69 ypg), fifth in total defense, and eighth in scoring defense.

    Simms could also have used the big-play Hunter to combat an ornery LSU pass defense paced by soph CB Tyrann Mathieu, who has quickly made Tiger fans forget about the graduated Patrick Peterson and is even generating some Heisman Trophy talk in the region.

    The handful of LSU detractors in the SEC who were wondering if Jefferson’s reinstatement to the roster two weeks ago might prove a distraction to Lee, who assumed the starting role after Jefferson’s preseason suspension, have been disappointed. So far, Miles has diffused any potential conflict, spotting Jefferson effectively but not detracting from the performance of Lee, who completed 7-of-10 passes last week in the 41-11 romp over Florida, and has thrown a long TD pass each of the last three games.

    The Tigers are especially impressive with their offensive balance; indeed, they can’t get more balanced, gaining exactly 183 yards pg both running and passing. The emergence of long-striding 6-foot-4 junior Reuben Randle as a feared deep threat wideout, and the return of electric WR Russell Shepard to the active lineup, are enough to loosen all enemy defenses while RBs Spencer Ware and Michael Ford soften the opposition with a punishing ground assault.

    Note, too, that since late last season, LSU has won and covered four straight (all vs. high-quality opposition) away from Tiger Stadium.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      Texas Longhorns Meet Powerful Oklahoma State

      Mack Brown’s "Texas 2011 Revenge Tour" veered off the road along I-35 on the way to the Cotton Bowl last week against Oklahoma.

      It looks like the Longhorns’ payback quest from 2010 might have to take yet another detour this week when they host Oklahoma State.

      There had been high hopes in Austin that Brown had Texas (4-1, No. 24 Don Best Linemakers Poll) back among the nation’s elite and ready to exact its pound of flesh on the seven teams that beat the 'Horns in a depressing 2010 performance. Losses a year ago to UCLA and Iowa State had already been avenged by 20+-point margins, and Texas backers were over the moon before last week’s game against the Sooners, who had also beaten the Longhorns a year ago.

      But all of those big dreams died hard last week in Dallas.

      The sobering 55-17 loss to OU has forced Texas fans to readjust their expectations downward in 2011. The BCS now looks out of reach. And another loss at home on Saturday vs. high-flying Oklahoma State (5-0, No. 8) might force all of the Texas Exes to plan their holiday travel for a minor bowl assignment, rather than one of the higher-profile New Year’s (or later) games.

      The oddsmakers seem to believe the Longhorns have a tough hill to climb this week vs. the visiting Cowboys, who are priced as 7½-point favorites at most outlets listed at Don Best. The early total for the Austin clash is posted at a healthy 64½. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by either ABC or ESPN, depending upon your region of the country.

      And the hard truth for Texas is that it might be facing a team every bit as good as the Oklahoma one that demolished the Longhorns last week at the Cotton Bowl.

      Certainly, OSU has no fear of Mack Brown’s team after whipping them by a 33-16 tally on this same Darrell Royal-Memorial Stadium field last year. And that scoreline flattered the Longhorns, who were losing 33-3 entering the fourth quarter. The Cowboys piled up 532 yards of offense, including 409 through the air by QB Brandon Weeden, 145 of those yards on passes to home run WR Justin Blackmon.

      The win was also OSU’s first over Texas in 12 years, and erased bitter memories of blown leads vs. the 'Horns in 2004, 2005 and 2007.

      Oklahoma State is running roughshod again in 2011, ranking first nationally in scoring (51.4 ppg) and second in total offense (577 ypg). The Cowboys have turned a few of their wins into video games, such as last week’s 70-28 trouncing of Kansas, a game in which OSU scored 56 straight points before halftime after spotting the Jayhawks an early 7-0 lead.

      Coach Mike Gundy showed admirable restraint when calling off the dogs and subbing liberally before the end of the first half, which ought to at least earn him a Christmas card from KU coach Turner Gill.

      As for Weeden, the 28-year-old ex-minor league baseball player is beginning to generate some Heisman buzz in the Great Plains. In OSU’s last two games, vs. Texas A&M and Kansas, Weeden has completed 71-of-88 passes for 726 yards, with seven scoring strikes and no picks. For the season, he’s completing 75 percent of his throws, with 15 TDs already. Blackmon ranks fifth among the nation’s receivers with 46 catches (and six TDs) through five games. Meanwhile, Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith provide percolating infantry diversions, each gaining better than five yards per carry.

      History, however, suggests not to discount the Longhorns, especially the week after facing Oklahoma. Win or lose vs. the Sooners since Brown arrived from North Carolina in 1998, Texas has won the following game an astounding 13 straight times.

      Yet, some discerning Big XII observers are wondering if all of the youth on Brown’s roster – true freshmen QB David Ash, RB Malcolm Brown and WR Jaxon Shipley are playing key roles – can trade points with a potent, veteran-laced opponent such as Oklahoma...or Oklahoma State.

      A key matchup to watch will be one of those Texas frosh, CB Quandre Diggs, who appeared overmatched at times against Oklahoma’s speedy wideouts last week and might similarly have his hands full against Blackmon and the other big-play Cowboy receiver threats.

      As for Brown, the tailback also looked a bit overwhelmed vs. the Sooners, gaining a season-low 49 yards on the ground. Senior RB Fozzy Whittaker, who took a kickoff back 100 yards for a score last week vs. OU, might see more carries this week.

      There have been some calls in Austin since the OU game for first-year offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin to make up his mind at QB between soph Case McCoy the aforementioned Ash, but to this point Harsin has said the pair will continue to split duties.

      Texas might have hopes of moving the ball on Bill Young’s OSU "D" that ranks a so-so 71st nationally in points allowed (27.6 ppg), but the Cowboy defensive numbers are distorted simply because of the accelerated pace and tempo of OSU’s games.

      What Young’s stop unit has been able to do well, however, is force turnovers, which it has done 17 times already this season, and 14 times the past three games. Even DE Jamie Blatnick has gotten into the act, recovering a fumble and securing an interception last week vs. Kansas. Cornerback Brodrick Brown also has an interception in each of the past three games.

      The pressure thus increases on Brown’s young QBs McCoy and Ash to be careful with the football and not set up the omnipotent OSU strike force in favorable field position.

      Note that the Cowboys have also covered 13 of 17 games vs. the spread since last season, and enter Austin on an 8-game win and cover streak away from Stillwater.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        News & Notes - Week 7

        October 12, 2011

        Week 7

        Boise State showed remarkable dominance vs. Fresno State and actually scored 111 straight points vs. Fresno St until a PR TD by the Bulldogs on Friday night. In 2010 they beat FSU 51-0 at home and had scored the final 10 points in 2009. Boise led 37-0 when FSU gained 73 yards in the final :20 of the 1H. Boise pulled quarterback Moore leading 43-0 in the 3Q and was up 50-0 After 3Q. BSU cruised to a 57-7 win with a 464-270 yd edge...

        Purdue got their largest margin of victory in a Big Ten game since 2008. QB MarQueis Gray did return to the lineup for Minnesota and threw for 104 yards and rushed for 20. It was Minnesota's 2nd straight blowout loss and turnovers fueled it. After a 26 yard punt, PU went 39/7pl for a TD then went 36/11pl for a 53 yd FG. Then, after a fumble went 11/7pl for a TD then got a 37 yd IR TD and led 24-0 after 1Q. PU led 31-3 at the half with a 180-85 yd edge. They extended it to 45-10 before Minny got a TD with 7:55 left...

        Tyler Russell replaced an ineffective Chris Relf as Mississippi State trailed 3-0 at the half with UAB having a 181-118 yd edge. After punting to open the 3Q, MSU went 89/7pl for a TD then after a UAB fmbl went 71/4pl (after UAB fumble) for a TD and after a UAB int, went 72/11pl for a TD with 5:03 left to go up 21-3. UAB's final drive was SOD at their own 47 with 3:18 left. Russell hit 11-13-166 while Relf hit 6-10-46. UAB QB Perry missed at least 5 open rec's and in the 1H there were 10 punts and 3 FG att's with 2 missed for the 2 teams combined. Miss St had just a 416-340 yd edge...

        Georgia Tech failed to put Maryland away and the Terps turned to backup QB CJ Brown. Brown hit just 4-17-36 yards but had the game changing play of the day. A few inches may have determined this game as well as GT had 4 different plays which could have gone for TD's but the connection was missed by inches and/or a drop with wide open rec's. In the 1H GT had a commanding 232-89 yd edge but only led 14-3 as they had a TD pass dropped and punted, missed a 34 yd FG and then were int'd in the EZ for a TB from the 18 yd line. GT led 21-3 and was SOD at the MD23 with 12:14 left when the key play happened. Brown faked a pitch and raced 77 yards down the sideline for a TD to get MD back to 21-10 and got 1 more late TD to only lose 21-16...

        South Carolina's only weakness at the start of the year has been QB Stephen Garcia who had a 4-9 ratio. Conner Shaw did start his second game and after a not so good outing vs. East Carolina in his first start, Shaw guided SC to 639 yards and a 32-6 FD edge vs. Kentucky. He hit 26-39 and most importantly had 0 int's. Kentucky had lost their first 2 SEC games by 33 ppg and SC Marcus Lattimore only ran the ball twice in the 1Q but finished with 102 yards (22 att). When they pulled Shaw, 3rd stringer Andrew Clifford and 4th stringer Dylan Thompson both appeared but no Garcia. UK ran just 6 plays in SC territory all on their opening drive and Shaw's 4 TD passes matched Garcia's effort for the entire start of the season. UK actually led 3-0 after SC fumbled the opening KO and it was just 7-3 after 1Q but SC had a 290-57 yd edge at the half and led 20-3 in the 54-3 romp...

        Rice only had a 350-307 yd edge vs. Memphis. Rice was int'd on 2 of their first 4 poss and only led 7-3 after 1Q then were SOD at the UM21 and punted on their next 2. After a 21 yd PR, they went 46/11pl for a 15 yd TD pass with :38 left in the half to lead 14-3 and had a 245-107 yd edge at the half. Rice got a 47 yd IR TD early 3Q and then drove 74/7pl for a TD to lead 28-3. Memphis rec'd a fumble at the Rice20 and got a 30 yd FG and 2 poss later fumbled at the Rice24 with 4:52 left and on their final poss, got to the Rice31 but were int'd at the 11 with :29 left...

        Wake Forest led almost start to finish vs. Florida State. FSU started Clint Trickett but when Trickett was int'd and ret'd to the 38 setting up a 38/4pl drive for a TD and a WF 16-7 lead with 1:48 left in the half, EJ Manuel came off the bench. Manuel led an 88/6pl drive for a TD to make it 16-14. WF built the lead to 32-17 early 4Q and FSU down 35-24 got a TD with :54 left to pull within 5 (2ptng) but WF rec'd the onside kick. Josh Harris rushed for 136 yards...

        QB Jon Hays made his first start for Utah and had 3 crucial int's vs. Arizona State. The Sun Devils led 10-7 at the half. Utah faked a punt and would go 79/9pl for a TD to lead 14-10. ASU got a 35 yd FG with 5:00 left 3Q, 14-13. Utah then turned it over 3 times and ASU went 44/5pl, 32/3pl and 61/10pl for TD's to blow it open, 35-14. Utah was sacked on 4&16 at midfield and punted on their final 2 poss...

        West Virginia/Connecticut was a tale of 2H's. In the 1H Conn had an 11-10 FD edge but missed a 42 yd FG and settled for a 22 yd FG on the last play of the half and actually trailed 10-9. The key play of the game happened mid3Q. Conn, threatening to take the lead, had a FD at the WV13 when QB McEntee was hit and fmbl'd. The ball popped into the air and was ret'd 83 yards to the UC12. WV got a TD 2pl later to go up 17-9. Conn would then got 3 & out on their next 2 poss, get tackled for a safety and got 2 FD's on their next 4 poss, all punts while WV rolled to a 43-9 lead. UC did get a 48 yd IR TD with 7:54 left to close the scoring and WV won 43-16 with a 541-275 yd edge...

        Oklahoma got a 55 yard IR TD, 19 yd FR TD and 56 yd FR TD in their 55-17 win over Texas. The FD's were even at 22 but the Sooners did have a 453-259 yd edge. Landry Jones hit 31-50-367 yards. Texas has come in the Red River Rivalry game ranked #11 three times and allowed 65 in 2003, 63 in 2000 and 55 in 2011...

        Kansas State led 10-3 at the half and opened it to 24-3 with 11:23 left in the game. Missouri would go on 12 and 8pl drives for 2 TD's to pull within 24-17 with 5:02 left and had some momentum. They opted to kick off deep but KSU went 66/11pl picking up 3 crucial FD's and ended the game at the Missouri 11 yard line pulling the outright upset...

        All season long Penn State has been better statistically than they were on the scoreboard. Versus Iowa, PSU had a 395-253 yd edge. In fact, Iowa came in leading the Big Ten in passing but PSU held them to 169 yards. PSU settled for a 20 yd FG after an 88/18pl drive then another 20 yard FG after an 81/12pl drive and only led 6-3 at the half. PSU had a 3&5 from the 6 but was int'd in the EZ but got a TD with 8:08 left to lead 13-3 and Iowa's final 3 poss ended on 2 int's and a 4th&39 sack...

        Oregon State jumped out to a 27-6 halftime lead vs. Arizona and held on for their first win of the season. The Beavers did get a blocked punt for a TD in the 1H helping them to that lead but had a 224-141 yd edge. They extended it to 30-6 mid3Q but Arizona chipped away. The Beavers went on a 48/9pl drive and missed a 42 yd FG and Arizona got within 30-27. OSU went for it on 4&gl at the 2 and got a TD with 5:22 left to lead 37-27 and Arizona went 78/7pl but on 4&gl from the 2 were SOD was 3:02 left and the Beavers won by 10...

        If you compare LSU and Alabama's games vs. Florida, they are fairly even statistically and the scores are almost identical. Alabama's win is still far more impressive. Alabama last week had to play in The Swamp vs. Florida's #1 QB for the 1H and #2 for the 2H. LSU was in Death Valley and was facing a 3rd string QB in Jacoby Brissett who became the first UF frosh QB in Florida history to take his first snap as a starter. Brissett, who was in a hostile environment, hit 8-14-94. It was just 27-11 after 3Q's and LSU would punch in a 2 yd TD run with 1:27 left capping a 76/11pl drive for the 41-11 final. LSU had a 453-213 yd edge...

        Houston's defense looked porous on Thursday night vs. UTEP but vs. East Carolina they had 9 sacks and had 4 int's. Case Keenum became the #2 all-time career leading passer passing Graham Harrell at TT and he hit 30-37 for 304 yards with his last pass being a 27 yard TD with 14:34 left in the game to make it 49-3. EC did have 20 FD's but was int'd at the UH21, EC43, UH33 and UH33. They also went on a 15 play drive to the UH19 but punted after sacks, were SOD after a 10pl drive at midfield and had a drive to the UH34 also end on a punt. UH went 80/10pl and got a TD with 1:19 left for the 56-3 final...

        You had to expect a high scoring game with Southern Mississippi and Navy and the two teams combined for 1,153 yards. Navy actually had 144-0 yard edge at the start but trailed 7-0 as they went on a 68/13pl drive settling for a 29 yd FG which was blk'd and ret'd 79 yards for a TD then went 76/13pl but was SOD on 4&gl at the 1. SM's offense was almost unstoppable and had TD drives of 99, 75, 77 and 58 yards in the 1H and led 35-7 with a 327-213 yard edge. The teams basically traded TD's in the 2H on almost every poss with SM leading by 28 or 21 points and Navy, trailing 63-35, was SOD at the SM2 with 1:59 left...

        Some key plays kept Miami, Fl. in the game vs. Virginia Tech and VT blew a big lead and actually needed a TD with :56 left for the win. VT took their first 2 drives right down the field for TD's to lead 14-0 and their 3rd drive was headed for the same but they fumbled at the Miami27. UM on 3&18 threw a pass down the sideline which looked incomplete. Somehow the replays gave them a 41 yard pass for a FD overthrowing the call and they got a TD a few plays later. VT still led 21-7 at the half. In the 2H, UM got their 2nd big play, a 3&4 pass where DB Whitley went for the ball and missed and Benjamin took it 77 yards for a TD. VT still led 24-14 and 31-21. UM on 3&12 early 4Q was sk'd and was forced to punt but QB Harris was standing over the DE and Collins threw the ball back at him and got a 15 yd penalty keeping the drive alive and UM got a TD. UM faced a 2nd & 30 and handed off to Miller who took it 30 yards for a TD and stunningly they led 35-31 with 2:51 left but VT went 77/8pl and Logan Thomas had a 19 yd TD run with :56 left for the win. Thomas hit 23-25-310 yards and 3 TD's passing and 2 rushing...

        Central Michigan QB Ryan Radcliff had a great 1H hitting 15-17 for 196 yards. CM settled for a 22 yd FG after an 82 yd drive and trailed 21-17 at the half despite a 253-223 yd edge. Radcliff was 1-10 with 3 int's in the 3Q and North Carolina State took control 35-17. It was 38-17 when CM got a 77 yd TD run by Cotton with 8:18 left then recovered the onside kick. They got 3 FD's to the NCSt11 but was int'd in the EZ with 5:38 left and NCSt got 3 FD's and ran out the clock...

        Notre Dame scored their most points since Lou Holtz's final home game when they beat Rutgers 62-0. It was the most combined points ever for a game at ND Stadium. ND scored on all six 1H poss and led 42-16 at the half as Air Force was no match physically for the Irish. ND even inserted mobile Andrew Hendrix who hit all 4 of his passes and rushed 6 times for 111 yards. The 2 teams combined for 1,125 yards. Air Force26 had a FD called back on a clip and went 3 &out after dropping a FD pass on 3&7. The Irish led 59-19 when AF went 74 and 67 yards for a pair of garbage TD's on their final 2 drives, the latter with :33 left...

        Tennessee was held to -9 yds rushing vs. Florida but Georgia did even better holding them to -20 yards rushing. In the 1H, each team had some long drives result in FG's and it was 6-6. UGA took control at the start of the 3Q scoring TD's on their first 2 poss to lead 20-6. UGA had an amazing poss where they went 12pl and had a FD at the UT23. After 3 holds and a 15 yd PF, they punted on 4&50! UT took over with 6:11 left and QB Bray was injured. Backup QB Simms converted on 4&2 and on 4&16 for FD's and got a TD with 2:45 left to pull within 8. UGA rec'd the onside kick...

        Nebraska had the biggest comeback in Cornhusker history with Ohio State not scoring after Braxton Miller left the game with injury. Taylor Martinez was coming off a horrible game vs. Wisconsin where his 3 int's turned the game around but hit 16-22-191 yards. Still, OSU led 27-6 in the 2H with NU only taking the lead after a Bauserman int with 6:29 left and getting a 17 yd TD run by Burkhead with 5:10 left. NU finished with a 25-16 FD edge. After Miller went out of the game NU had a 15-3 FD edge and managed the comeback with Bauserman hitting 1-10-13...

        It was a tale of 2H's in the Northwestern/Michigan game. In the 1H NU had a 297-257 yd edge and led 24-14, even dropping a TD pass at the end of the 1H and settling for a 20 yd FG. Denard Robinson had 3 crucial 1H int's being picked off at the 4 yard line 3 times. In the 2H UM battled back to take its first lead with 2:58 left in the 3Q and then NU turned it over on consecutive drives. NU, trailing 35-24, went for it on 4&5 at the UM37 and QB Persa had his helmet ripped off by a DL but no pen was called and the play was blown dead because his helmet was off. Fitzgerald got hit with a 15 yard PF for protesting the call and UM went 39/9pl for a TD with 2:19 left to clinch it, 42-24.

        MISLEADING FINALS

        Central Florida absolutely dominated Marshall and it's shocking that they only won by 10. In the 1H UCF had 13-1 FD and 246-47 yd edges. They had a pair of long TD drives but also had a 63/6pl drive end on a fumble at the MU11 and had a 10pl drive end on a 22 yard FG where they mishandled the snap. Marshall's only TD came when UCF fumbled and MU ret'd it 12 yards for a TD with 3:07 left in the 3Q. UCF had 2 chances at a TD at the end but on 3&2 from the MU11 were int'd at the 4 with 5:04 left and UCF's final drive went 48/7pl with the last play of the game getting to the MU4. UCF finished with 21-6 FD and 387-130 yard edges.

        INJURIES OF NOTE

        Clemson was cruising along vs. Boston College with a 26-7 lead when Taj Boyd inj'd his hip on the first drive of the 3Q and he did not return. Cole Stoudt hit 6-10-37 yards in his place. CU still managed a 47 yard FG with :39 left in the 3Q to lead 29-14 and then drove 58/6pl and on 4&1 got a 36 yd TD run by Ellington with 11:24 left to get ahead of the 21 pts spread, 36-14. BC was SOD at the CU31 and SOD at their own 33 on their final 2 drives. CU had actually not scored a TD vs. Boston College since 2008. Another injury of note was RB Montel Harris for BC did not play after having rushed for 100 yards the week before in his only game of the season so far. CU finished with a 500-258 yd edge.

        FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

        Louisville OC Mike Sanford did not travel with the team so QB coach Watson called the plays. North Carolina got its 8th straight win over a non-conf opponent and Giovanni Bernard became the first Tar Heel to rush for at least 100 yards in 4 straight games since Ethan Horton in 1984. UL actually controlled the 1H with a 188-59 yd edge but the Cardinals missed a 40 yd FG after a 75/15pl drive, were SOD at the NC43, int'd at the NC19 and missed a 36 yd FG. In the 2H, UL punted on their first 5 poss. NC took the points off the board on a 23 yd FG when UL jumped offsides and got a TD and later went 66/5pl for a TD to lead 14-0 with 12:19 left. NC was SOD on 4&1 at the UL39 with 2:35 left and UL went 61/10pl and got an 18 yd TD pass with :41 left for the backdoor cover. NC rec'd the onside kick...

        Illinois is off to its best start since 1951 and had 3 scoring plays of 66+ yards to erase an early 10-0 deficit. Indiana ret'd the opening KO 98 yards for a TD and Illinois trailed 10-0 when they got a 77 yard TD pass on 3&11 with 4:22 left in the 1Q then got a 66 yd FR TD and later a 67 yd TD pass to Jenkins to lead 27-13 at the half with a 280-119 yd edge. It was 34-13 when Indy got a TD with 5:29 left capping an 85/11pl drive for the frontdoor push but IL took over at its 11 and went 89/11pl and got a 1 yd TD run with 1:20 left for the frontdoor cover. Indy got to the IL15 but their final pass was incomplete...

        Texas A&M did what they usually do which is jump out to a big lead, this time it was 31-20 at the half against Texas Tech and A&M had a 301-225 yd edge. This time A&M got a break in the 3Q. They led 31-23 when they blk'd a 50 yd FG and ret'd it 63 yards for a TD to make it 38-23. A&M got a TD with 11:59 left and were up comfortably 45-30. TT got a 31 yd FG that bounced off the upright and went through to make it 45-33 with 9:34 left but TT on 4&2 fired incomplete with 4:00 left at their own 33. A hold on A&M forced a 4&17 and they punted with just 2:55 left and TT would go 91/11pl getting a 20 yd TD pass with :31 left for the backdoor cover.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Games to Watch - Week 7

          October 12, 2011

          Saturday - Michigan at Michigan State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
          Matchup Skinny

          As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Michigan St. installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 48 ½. The Spartans, who had an open date to prep for their arch rival, have won three in a row over Michigan both straight up and against the spread. Mark Dantonio's team is coming off a 10-7 win at Ohio St. as a three-point underdog. As a home favorite during Dantonio's five-year tenure, Michigan St. owns a 12-12-1 spread record. The 'under' is 4-1 for the Spartans this year. Michigan has won its first six games on Brady Hoke's watch and emerged victorious from its road trip last week. The Wolverines trailed Northwestern 24-14 at halftime, but they scored 28 unanswered points in the second half. Denard Robinson shook off three interceptions to throw for a pair of touchdowns and rush for two more scores. Robinson has 1,130 passing yards with a 10/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 720 yards and eight TDs. When MSU won 34-17 in Ann Arbor last year, Robinson had three turnovers, including a pair of picks in the red zone.




          Saturday - Oklahoma State at Texas (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
          Matchup Skinny

          As of early Wednesday afternoon, most spots had Oklahoma St. listed as a 7 ½-point 'chalk' with a total of 64 ½. Texas was plus-250 to win outright (risk $100 to win $250). Mike Gundy's team hung a 70-spot on Kansas in a backyard shellacking last week. Brandon Weeden completed 24-of-28 passes for 288 yards and five TDs without being intercepted, as the Cowboys scored 56 points in the first half. When these Big 12 rivals met in Austin last year, Weeden threw for 409 yards in a 33-16 OSU win that ended a long losing streak against the Longhorns. Texas is looking to bounce back from its first loss of the year, a 55-17 setback to Oklahoma in Dallas. Since 2001, Mack Brown's team has only been a home underdog twice and it failed to take the cash in each instance. As for OSU, it owns a 12-3 spread record as a road 'chalk' on Gundy's watch, covering the number in eight consecutive such spots. Both teams have seen the 'over' go 3-2 overall this year.






          Other Games to Watch
          Matchup Skinny

          Baylor at Texas A&M - Most spots have Texas A&M listed as a nine-point 'chalk' with a sky-high total of 75. The Aggies responded to back-to-back losses by winning 45-40 at Texas Tech last week, but they failed to hook up their backers for the fourth straight time. Baylor is off a 49-26 win over Iowa St. thanks to another brilliant performance from QB Robert Griffin III, who has 19 TD passes compared to just one interception. Griffin has also rushed for 280 yards and a pair of scores. The Bears are 8-5 ATS as road 'dogs under Art Briles, while Texas A&M has a 9-7 ATS mark as a home favorite on Mike Sherman's watch. The 'over' is 4-0 for the Bears, 3-2 for the Aggies.

          Miami, Fl. at North Carolina - Most spots have North Carolina installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 51. UNC won a 14-7 decision over Louisville at home last week, while Miami came up on the short end of a 38-35 score at Va. Tech. Jacory Harris threw three TD passes against the Hokies, rallying his team from a 14-point halftime deficit to take the lead in the final stanza. However, the defense gave up a late score at crunch time. The Tar Heels have won three of the last four against the Hurricanes, but Miami drilled UNC 33-10 last year. The 'under' is 4-2 for the Heels this year, 8-1 in their last nine home outings. The 'over' is 3-2 for UM.

          Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - From Sunday-Wednesday, there was zero movement in this number. Most books opened Va. Tech as a seven-point favorite with the total at 49. Gamblers can back Wake Forest on the money line for a plus-220 return (risk $100 to win $220). Frank Beamer's squad is mired in an abysmal 0-5 ATS slide, including a 23-3 home loss to Clemson two weeks ago. Wake Forest is coming off a 35-30 upset win over FSU as a 10-point home underdog. The win and cover improved the Demon Deacons to 16-7-1 ATS as home 'dogs during Jim Grobe's tenure. The Hokies have prevailed in each of their last seven trips to Winston-Salem, where they haven't tasted defeat since 1970. The 'over' is 4-1 for Wake, but the 'under' is 4-2 for VT.

          Florida at Auburn - I made Auburn a three-point favorite for this game and most spots opened Gene Chizik's team as a two-point 'chalk' early Sunday night. However, as of Wednesday, the Gators were listed as the two-point favorites with the total at 49 ½. This is a crucial contest for both schools that are coming off of blowout losses. Florida was holding its own with Alabama until QB John Brantley got hurt. Since then, UF has been outscored 58-11 in six quarters. LSU demolished Florida by a 44-11 count last week, but gamblers should keep in mind that Will Muschamp's team had to take the redshirt off of third-string QB Jacoby Brissett in Baton Rouge. Brissett is likely to start again this week with Brantley still 'out' and back-up Jeff Driskel 'questionable' with an ankle sprain. AU is also dealing with injuries as its top two WRs missed last week's 38-14 loss at Arkansas. Both wideouts, Trovon Reed and Emory Blake, are 'questionable' again this week. -
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #20
            USC visits rival Cal on Thursday night

            USC TROJANS (4-1)
            at CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (3-2)


            Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
            Line: USC -3, Total: 55.5

            The Cal Bears look for a rare victory over Pac-12 foe USC when the two schools meet in Berkeley on Thursday night.

            USC has won seven straight SU (5-2 ATS) against Cal and is 7-2 SU in its past nine road meeting with the Bears. The Trojans crushed the Bears at home last year, leading 42-0 at half and winning 48-14, as Matt Barkley threw for 352 yards and 5 TD, two to Robert Woods. Despite their futility versus the Trojans, the Bears are 17-5 ATS (77%) at home since 2007, and junior QB Zach Maynard (11 TD, 3 INT) should be able to take advantage of a USC passing defense that ranks 98th in the nation, allowing 267 passing YPG. The pick here is CALIFORNIA to win at home.

            The FoxSheets show another trend favoring the Bears:

            CALIFORNIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The average score was CALIFORNIA 36.0, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 1*).

            After throwing two picks in a blowout loss at Arizona State two games ago, Barkley bounced back in a big way against Arizona. He threw for a school-record 468 yards, completing 32-of-39 passes, including four touchdowns. The sophomore Woods caught 14 passes for 255 yards and 2 TD against the Wildcats, and his 149 receiving YPG ranks second in the nation. USC has also done a solid job rushing the football, averaging 155 rushing YPG on 5.1 yards per carry in the past three contests. Defensively, the Trojans are allowing more and more yardage every week, giving up 554 (425 passing) to Arizona. The team has produced only five turnovers this year, posting a minus-5 TO margin, and has a meager two sacks in the past two games.

            Cal hung with Oregon for a while last week, leading at the half, but then was outscored 29-0 after halftime in the 43-15 loss. Junior RB Isi Sofele continues to be consistently great, rushing for 119 yards on just 12 carries (9.9 YPC) versus the Ducks. This was his fifth straight game of rushing for at least 80 yards. Sophomore WR Keenan Allen has also been tremendous in each game. After failing to gain 70 yards in the final 11 games of his freshman campaign, Allen already has four 100-yard games this year. In the past two games, he has caught 19 passes for 367 yards and two scores. For the Bears to slow down USC’s offense, they need to somehow put pressure on Barkley. But in three games versus Pac-12 foes this year, Cal has generated just three sacks, and the Trojans are currently tied for 13th in nation in fewest sacks allowed (0.8 per game). Before surrendering 365 rushing yards to Oregon last week, Cal was ranked ninth in the nation in rushing defense (78 YPG).
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              Hawaii goes for 3rd straight win visiting San Jose St.

              HAWAII WARRIORS (3-2)
              at SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS (2-4)


              Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
              Line: Hawaii -6, Total: 55

              Hawaii looks to retain its dominance over San Jose State when it travels to the mainland for a Friday night tussle with the Spartans.

              Hawaii has won nine of the past 10 meetings, winning by at least a touchdown in eight of those matchups. San Jose State is not good enough on either side of the ball to hang with the Warriors. The Spartans rank 91st in total offense (348 YPG) and their top RB Brandon Rutley (104 rush YPG) is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of last week’s game. SJSU ranks 92nd in total defense (415 YPG), and no FBS team has fewer than its three total sacks. This will allow Hawaii star QB Bryant Moniz (560 pass yards in last year’s 41-7 win over SJSU) plenty of time to dissect the field. The pick here is HAWAII to win and cover.

              The FoxSheets shows a three-star trend favoring the Warriors:

              HAWAII is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAWAII 48.4, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 3*).

              Moniz has thrown for 834 yards, 11 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to 100 points during a two-game win streak over UC Davis and Louisiana Tech. Senior WR Royce Pollard has been the main beneficiary of Moniz’s hot streak, as Pollard has 19 catches for 361 yards and six touchdowns in these two contests. Although this is a pass-first offense, the Warriors still have eight rushing touchdowns, including four by Moniz. Freshman Joey Iosefa had a breakout game last week, rumbling for 99 yards on 16 carries (6.2 YPC). Hawaii isn’t known for its defense, but the stop unit has done some nice things this year, allowing just 327 yards per game (18th-fewest in nation) with 3.8 sacks per game (third-most in nation).

              San Jose State is 3-10 SU in its past 13 WAC home games, but has won two of its past three games this year, scoring 29.3 PPG in this stretch. If it is to win again, somebody will need to run the football effectively with Rutley still on the mend. Last week at BYU, the Spartans gained only 70 yards on 26 carries (2.7 YPC) without their top rusher. QB Matt Faulkner has been middling this season with 4 TD and 4 INT in his five games. He threw two picks last week, and failed to score for the third time this season. In addition to their paltry sack total of three, the Spartans have a pathetic 3.3 Tackles for Loss per game. Only Navy (3.2) has a worse TFL average in the entire country.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Trending: College Football Unbeatens

                Through the first six weeks of the season, there are still 13 unbeaten teams remaining. This baker’s dozen is listed below in order of current AP ranking. Our research shows some recent history for several of these teams as unbeatens at this point in the season. We’ve also looked to the FoxSheets, where we found some 3, 4 and even 5-star plays. All of these teams are in action this weekend with the exception of Houston.
                No. 1 LSU TIGERS (6-0)



                This week: At Tennessee
                --The Tigers are just 14-26 ATS (35%) in SEC games over the last five-plus seasons.
                --Les Miles is 8-20 ATS (28.6%, -14.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 29.0, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*).

                No. 2 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (6-0)



                This week: At Ole Miss
                --Alabama is 6-0 SU for the third time in the past four seasons. On both previous occasions (2008, 2009), they lost their seventh game ATS.
                --Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

                No. 3 OKLAHOMA SOONERS (5-0)



                This week: At Kansas
                --Play Against: A home team (KANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (31-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*).
                --KANSAS is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 4 straight games since 1992. The average score was KANSAS 14.6, OPPONENT 36.9 - (Rating = 3*).

                No. 4 WISCONSIN BADGERS (5-0)



                This week: Vs. Indiana
                --The Badgers are 5-0 SU for the third time in the last five seasons. On both previous occasions (2007, 2009), they lost their sixth game both SU and ATS.
                --WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WISCONSIN 51.6, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 2*).

                No. 5 BOISE STATE BRONCOS (5-0)



                This week: At Colorado State
                --BOISE ST is 53-19 ATS (73.6%, +32.1 Units) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 44.3, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*).
                --BOISE ST is 23-5 ATS (82.1%, +17.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 39.4, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 3*).

                No. 6 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-0)



                This week: At Texas
                --In 2008, the Cowboys began the season 7-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. The 8-0 ATS start is the longest ATS unbeaten streak to begin the season since the 2008 season.
                --OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*).
                --Last season, the Cowboys ended an 11-game SU losing streak to Texas. They are just 4-8 ATS (33%) in these meetings.

                No. 7 STANFORD CARDINAL (5-0)



                This week: At Washington State
                --The Cardinal are 11-6 SU (65%) and 12-5 ATS (71%) versus the Cougars since 1992. They are 5-2 SU (71%) and 6-1 ATS (86%) at Washington State in this span.
                --STANFORD is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 43.4, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 5*).

                No. 8 CLEMSON TIGERS (6-0)



                This week: At Maryland
                --The Tigers are 2-3 both SU and ATS (40%) versus the Terrapins over the past five seasons.
                --Ten of 11 games (91%) in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
                --MARYLAND is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The average score was MARYLAND 27.7, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 2*).

                No. 11 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (6-0)



                This week: At Michigan State
                --After starting the season 5-0 SU last season, the Wolverines went 0-8 ATS the rest of the way (including bowl game).
                --Michigan is 0-3 both SU and ATS versus Michigan State in the past three seasons.
                --MICHIGAN is 3-15 ATS (16.7%, -13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the past 3 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 29.1, OPPONENT 33.6 - (Rating = 3*).

                No. 12 GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (6-0)



                This week: At Virginia
                --Paul Johnson is 32-13 ATS (71.1%, +17.7 Units) in road games in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Johnson 30.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 2*).
                --GEORGIA TECH is 2-7 ATS (22%) at VIRGINIA since 1992.

                No. 16 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (6-0)



                This week: Vs. Ohio State
                --ILLINOIS is 11-6 (65%) against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1992.
                --Eight of 12 games (67%) in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

                No. 17 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (5-0)



                This week: At Texas Tech
                --The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS (14%) versus Texas Tech since 1992.
                --TEXAS TECH is 18-3 ATS (5.7%, +14.7 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 34.6, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 3*).

                No. 25 HOUSTON COUGARS (6-0)



                This week: BYE
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #23
                  Thursday, October 13

                  Game Score Status Pick Amount

                  San Diego State - 8:00 PM ET Air Force -7 500

                  Air Force - Over 59 500

                  Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -3 500

                  California - Under 58.5 500
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                    10/13/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
                    10/08/11 29-*19-*0 60.42% +*4050 Detail
                    10/07/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
                    10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
                    10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
                    Totals 89-*69-*2 56.33% +6550

                    Friday, October 14

                    Game Score Status Pick Amount

                    Hawaii - 9:00 PM ET Hawaii -5 500

                    San Jose State - Over 55.5 500
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

                      While the top schools in the country have been covering as big favorites in the college ranks, there was a little good news for the sports books in pro football.

                      Much to Fuhrman’s delight, both standalone primetime games actually went ‘under’ the total in the NFL.

                      After two quick touchdowns from the Atlanta Falcons and Aaron Rodgers standing on the other sideline, the 25-14 win for the Green Bay Packers finished well below the total of 55 last Sunday night. Then, on the huge Monday night home game for the Detroit Lions, their 24-13 victory over the Chicago Bears would have remained ‘under’ the number even if Jay Cutler’s last ditch effort came up with a touchdown.

                      This week in college football, one of the best matchups is the in-state rivalry between the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans. Rankings come via the Don Best Linemakers Poll. The Spartans are currently -2½ with the total set at 49. Keep an eye out for weather in this one as early reports call for winds as high as 25 miles per hour.

                      In the Big 12 contest in Austin, the No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to take on the No. 24 Texas Longhorns. Caesars’ line on the Don Best odds screen sees OSU as a 7½-point road favorite and the total is 64½.

                      Then on the west coast, the No. 7 Oregon Ducks are a sizable 14½-point favorite over the visiting Arizona State Sun Devils with a total of 66½. ASU is tied for No. 14 on the DB Poll. This line had moved up to 16 but has since come back down. Running back LaMichael James looks to be out with an elbow injury sustained in Oregon’s last outing against the Cal Bears.

                      In the always unpredictable NFL, there are a couple matchups that unquestionably looked different before the season began.

                      The 1-4 Philadelphia Eagles will travel to Washington to take on Rex Grossman’s 3-1 Redskins. Read that sentence again because it is no dream for Philly, but reality. Still, the Eagles are a 1½-point favorite on the road. This may be it for Andy Reid’s squad if they cannot find a way to get a victory on Sunday. One has to believe that they will be all in against the ‘Skins or this team may unravel even more than it has already. The total is posted at 47.

                      Then in what has suddenly become one of the major showdowns in Week 6, the 4-1 San Francisco 49ers travel to Ford Field to face the undefeated Detroit Lions. That dome was rocking last Monday night and San Fran should expect the same type of atmosphere as they come in as 4-point underdogs with a total of 46½. Jim Harbaugh is doing an absolute top-notch coaching job for the Niners and so is his opponent, Jim Schwartz of the Lions.

                      Finally, this week’s primetime matchups feature a couple of division battles. On Sunday night, the Chicago Bears are -3 at home over the Minnesota Vikings with a total of 41½. Chicago may be getting Minny at a bad time as they Vikings finally found a way to win a week ago.

                      Monday Night Football on ESPN will close the week out with the New York Jets hosting the winless Miami Dolphins coming off of their bye week. While many have already counted out the Jets, they have had three tough road games in a row for their three losses on the year. Fuhrman is not quite among the doubters as he says, “I still think the Jets are going to be a force in the AFC. You’ve got to start proving it on the field eventually.”

                      New York is favored by a touchdown with the total set at 43.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Struggling Florida Gators Visit Auburn Tigers

                        The Florida Gators have gone from national darling to a team in disarray in a span of just two weeks. They look to stop the bleeding when they visit the Auburn Tigers on Saturday night.

                        The Don Best college football odds have Florida as somewhat surprising 2-point favorites after opening as a pick ‘em. The total is 49 ½-points and ESPN will broadcast at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Jordan-Hare Stadium.

                        The Gators (4-2 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) were ranked No. 12 in both the AP and Don Best Linemakers Poll before the fateful October 1 home game against Alabama. They not only lost 38-10 as 3 ½-point underdogs, but saw quarterback John Brantley (ankle) get injured.

                        The senior Brantley was replaced by true freshman Jacoby Brissett last week in Baton Rouge and the results were a predictable 41-11 loss as 14-point ‘dogs. LSU has one of the fiercest defenses in the country and Brissett was picked off twice while limited to just 94 passing yards.

                        Florida just barely dropped out of the AP top-25, but is still No. 19 at Don Best.

                        Brantley is out again this week and coach Will Muschamp hasn’t said whether Brissett or fellow true freshman Jeff Driskel would start. Driskel couldn’t play last week with an ankle injury and both could see action, although Brissett is likely to start.

                        Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis had to be innovative even when the veteran Brantley was playing. A lot of his completions were underneath routes to running back Chris Rainey. The game-plan should be conservative no matter who is under center.

                        Weis would be happy to get the running game going with the explosive Rainey (467 yards) and Jeff Demps (324 yards). The former was held to 52 yards rushing last week on 13 carries, while the latter had two carries for no yards while he battled his own ankle injury.

                        Demps is listed as probable, with Mike Gillislee (56 yards last week) another option. Auburn’s run defense can certainly be exploited at 201.8 YPG (ranked a whopping 103rd).

                        Florida’s offense has averaged just 217.5 total yards the last two weeks after 462 in the first four. Tougher competition certainly played a part, but this offense is in shambles.

                        The ‘over’ is still 4-0 in Florida’s last four games, with the defense surrendering 39.5 PPG the last two after nine PPG in the first four. There’s no excuse for the ‘D’ to be playing so poorly, but the unit seems deflated like the rest of the team.

                        Auburn (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) got some great news this week when the NCAA cleared it of ‘major infractions’ in the Cam Newton recruiting saga. The overall investigation of the school has also been concluded.

                        The news on the field wasn’t as good with a 38-14 loss at Arkansas last Saturday as 10-point ‘dogs. Auburn actually led 14-7 at the end of the first quarter before Arkansas ended on a 31-0 run. That ended an 8-0 ATS streak in conference games.

                        The Tigers also dropped from No. 15 to No. 24 in the AP after the loss. The Don Best poll has never been high on them, not ranking in the top-30 even when they were No. 15 in the AP.

                        The breaking Newton news is ironic with coach Gene Chizik still trying to replace the Heisman winner. Junior Barrett Trotter will get the start again, but his already mediocre stats are declining rapidly, going 6-of-19 for 81 yards against Arkansas. That was after a 112-yard effort in the 16-13 upset win at South Carolina the week before.

                        Freshman Kiehl Frazier is the other option. He’s a dangerous runner and provides a different challenge to the Florida defense. However, he has just five pass attempts all year, and two picks last week in four throws, so he should continue to be a change-of-pace guy.

                        Auburn relies on the 27th-ranked rushing attack (204 YPG), with sophomore Michael Dyer a threat to go over 100 yards every game and Onterio McCalebb a very good sidekick.

                        Florida’s run defense is allowing 115 YPG (ranked 32nd), but Alabama’s Trent Richardson (181 yards) and LSU’s Spencer Ware (109 yards) were both very effective the last two weeks.

                        Auburn is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the teams dating back to 2001. The last one was in 2007 when Tim Tebow was handed a rare loss, 20-17 in Gainesville.

                        The weather forecast is very nice, clear and in the 60s.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Oregon Ducks Host Arizona State In Pac-12 Betting Action

                          The Arizona State Sun Devils head to Eugene this Saturday night to face the Oregon Ducks in what could potentially be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 2.

                          Oregon is currently a 14-point favorite at home on the Don Best odds screen. The 10:15 p.m. (ET) kickoff is the latest start of any on Saturday’s card, and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

                          With USC ineligible to represent the Pac-12 South in the inaugural Pac-12 title game, Arizona State at this point looks like a runaway favorite to win the division. Oregon’s path in the Pac-12 North is a bit tougher with the big road game against Stanford looming, but the potential for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship adds even more intrigue to this already exciting matchup.

                          This week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll is giving both Oregon and Arizona State more respect than the AP Poll. Oregon is ranked No. 7 (compared to No. 9 in the AP), and Arizona State is tied with Georgia at No. 14 (compared to No. 18 in the AP).

                          Oregon (4-1) cruised to an easy win and cover in a 43-15 victory over Cal last week as a 24-point favorite, but the Ducks didn’t escape unscathed. LaMichael James, who turned in his third straight 200-yard rushing game with 239 rushing yards through three quarters, injured his elbow late in the game and could miss a few weeks.

                          James is averaging over 170 yards per game on the ground, tops in the country. That number is even more remarkable when you see he's reaching the figure on less than 20 carries per game for nearly 9-yards per tote.

                          Even without James, the Ducks have plenty of fire in the backfield behind Darron Thomas with Kenjon Barner and D’Anthony Thomas. But in a game that figures to be a shootout, being without your best weapon is never a good thing.

                          Arizona State (5-1) took a stranglehold on the Pac-12 South and shook some road demons with a 35-14 win at Utah last week. The Sun Devils were just 2-8 straight up in their previous 10 road games.

                          Quarterback Brock Osweiler is the key to this matchup for the Sun Devils. With 1677 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, Osweiler has developed into a star on offense this season, but this will easily be the most hostile environment he’s faced this year.

                          Against a vulnerable Oregon defense, Osweiler could give ASU a chance to pull off the upset, but he’ll need to be mistake-free.

                          Last season in Tempe, the Sun Devils outgained the Ducks 597 yards to 385, but still lost 42-31 in a bizarre game in which they turned the ball over seven times. Arizona State narrowly picked up the cover as a 12 ½-point underdog in that one; it was the first time ASU covered a spread against Oregon since 2004.

                          The Ducks are 5-1 ATS and 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with the Sun Devils.

                          The total has gone ‘over’ in six of Arizona State’s last eight games and five of Oregon’s last seven games at home. The total for Saturday’s game is currently set for 66 ½.

                          Cloudy and cool is the forecast for Eugene on Saturday. There's a 20 percent chance of rain and it will be in the mid-50s for kickoff.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Oklahoma Sooners At Defenseless Kansas Jayhawks

                            The first BCS rankings for this season are due out on Sunday, and it is doubtful that the Oklahoma Sooners can help their case for the top spot much when then visit the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday night.

                            The unbeaten Sooners (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) sit at No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and No. 2 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll while they have earned the respect of the coaches as the No. 1 team in the country in the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll.

                            ESPN2 will have the kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Lawrence at 9:15 p.m. (ET).

                            Oklahoma opened as a 35-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up as high as 36 ½. The total has also seen movement in the upward direction from 71 to 72 ½ at some sportsbooks, the second-highest number on the board behind another Big 12 matchup between Texas A&M and Baylor (77).

                            The Sooners are coming off an impressive 55-17 rout of Texas in their annual Red River Rivalry game last Saturday, as quarterback Landry Jones continued his bid for the Heisman Trophy with 367 passing yards and three touchdowns. He has failed to throw for that many yards in one game this season, finishing with 199 in a 23-13 victory at No. 18 Florida State on September 17.

                            Jones will have an excellent opportunity to carve up the worst defense in the country and pad his numbers against the nation’s worst defense. Kansas (2-3, 0-2) is surrendering 49.4 points and 556 yards per game, including nearly 333 through the air.

                            The Jayhawks have lost their first two conference games, including a 70-28 thumping at Oklahoma State last Saturday. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three games and have seen the ‘over’ cash in all five this year. Cowboys starting QB Brandon Weeden and backup Clint Chelf combined to throw for 494 yards and seven touchdowns.

                            Kansas has dropped the last six meetings with Oklahoma, going 2-4 against the spread. However, the average margin of defeat in those games is 21.5 points, with the biggest win decided by 31 and the Sooners scoring a high of 45.

                            The teams did not play each other last year, with the Sooners earning a 35-13 victory in the last meeting two years ago. Jones was just a freshman in that game and threw for 252 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Senior wide receiver Ryan Broyles had 11 catches for 121 yards against Kansas and needs just four more to pass Purdue’s Taylor Stubblefield as the NCAA’s career receptions leader.

                            The weather forecast for Lawrence on Saturday calls for a high temperature of 79 under sunny skies.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • #29
                              Ole Miss Rebels Tackle No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

                              The No. 1 team in the Don Best Linemakers Poll heads out on the road this weekend before the first installment of the BCS standings is released on Sunday.

                              Alabama (6-0) and Ole Miss (2-3) are set to square off Saturday night at 6:00 (ET) with ESPN2 providing the broadcast from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Oddsmakers opened up the Crimson Tide as 24 ½-point road favorites in the betting odds and that number has moved up by a full point in most spots.

                              The total has settled in at 44 ½.

                              The Crimson Tide will be traveling away from Tuscaloosa for the third time this year, covering both previous opportunities as road favorites in capturing wins over Penn State (27-11) and Florida (38-10). Saturday will be the 59th meeting between the two sides, but just the 10th time Alabama has played Ole Miss in Oxford, with the last being a 22-3 victory for the road team as 3½-point favorites in 2009.

                              Head coach Nick Saban usually has his squad cranked up during the month of October, posting a 15-1 record since the 2007 campaign. Over that span, the Crimson Tide have outscored opponents by a 410-208 margin.

                              Running back Trent Richardson is the star offensively and a Heisman Trophy candidate, leading the team with 729 rushing yards, which is actually ahead of former star Mark Ingram’s pace (659 yards) when he captured the award in 2009.

                              On the other side of the ball, the defense is the real star of the show, holding opponents to just 191.3 total yards. Alabama’s stop unit also ranks first nationally in scoring defense, allowing just seven points a game.

                              Bettors will find that the Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS over the last two-plus seasons and the ‘under’ is 15-14 over that span.

                              Ole Miss snapped a two-game losing streak with a 38-28 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs as 3 ½-point road underdogs on Oct. 1, while the game went above the posted total of 55. The Rebels won the statistical battle by a single yard in that effort, but have been out-gained by triple digits in their other four games, resulting in a 658-yard disparity.

                              This week’s contest will be the fourth following a bye during the Houston Nutt era, and the team is 1-2 in the situation with both losses coming to Alabama in 2008 and 2010. It’s important to note that the Rebels covered both of those opportunities as underdogs of 12 ½ and 20 points respectively.

                              Last year, Ole Miss faced five top-25 foes and lost all five. Before that five-game skid, the Rebels last knocked off four of their last five ranked opponents, including two wins over top-10 teams.

                              Randall Mackey has replaced Zack Stoudt under center, throwing for 214 yards and a touchdown versus the Bulldogs, while running back Jeff Scott ran for a career-high 138 yards.

                              The host has a great chance of covering the number in this SEC matchup, posting a 4-1 ATS mark in the last five meetings in Mississippi.

                              Weather forecasts suggest clear skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s. A perfect night for football in the South.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • #30
                                Hawaii at San Jose St.

                                October 14, 2011

                                This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to San Jose where Hawaii (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) will take on the Spartans at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

                                Most betting shops opened the Warriors as seven-point favorites with a total of 55. As of late Thursday afternoon, however, the number was down to six and the total was up to 56.

                                Greg McMackin’s team is coming off an open date that was preceded by a 44-26 win at Louisiana Tech. Senior quarterback Bryant Moniz connected on 34-of-55 throws for 410 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. On back-to-back plays midway through the third quarter, Hawaii got a pair of touchdowns on a pick-six by Richard Torres and a scoop and score from Tank Hopkins.

                                Hawaii won outright in Ruston as a four-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-160 range.

                                For the season, Moniz has a 15/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also rushed for four TDs. He is completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 1,578 yards. Moniz’s favorite target is senior WR Royce Pollard, who has 33 receptions for 550 yards and six TDs.

                                San Jose St. (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) has been a steady money maker since its disastrous Week 1 performance. The Spartans got spanked at Stanford 57-3 in the opener but since then, they have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

                                Mike MacIntyre’s squad picked up a pair of wins vs. New Mexico St. (34-24) and at Colorado St. (38-31), but it came up on the short end of a 29-16 decision last week at BYU. The Spartans did take the cash, though, as 14 ½-point underdogs.

                                San Jose St. faced the Cougars without a pair of its best offensive players, running back Brandon Rutley and offensive guard Fred Koloto. While Koloto remained ‘questionable’ as of early Thursday night, Rutley was upgraded to ‘probable’ and is expected to start. Rutley has rushed for 519 yards and six touchdowns on 91 carries.

                                San Jose St. QB Matt Faulkner threw for 255 yards against BYU but was intercepted twice. For the year, Faulkner has a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. Faulkner has a pair of excellent weapons in TE Ryan Otten and WR Noel Grigsby.

                                Grigsby has a team-high 39 receptions for 336 yards, while Otten has 24 catches for a team-high 372 yards and three TD grabs.

                                During McMackin’s four-year tenure, Hawaii owns a 5 -2 spread record as a road favorite. Meanwhile, San Jose St. has gone 3-2 ATS in five games as a home underdog on MacIntyre’s watch.

                                The ‘over’ is 3-3 overall for the Spartans, 1-1 in their home games. The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Warriors, 2-1 in their road assignments.

                                When these WAC rivals met last year, Hawaii cruised to a 41-7 win as a 30-point home favorite. Moniz threw for 560 yards and three TDs.

                                **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

                                --After Thursday's practice in Oxford, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt announced the one-game suspension of RB Branon Bolden, starting OG Alex Washington, starting center A.J. Hawkins and reserve WR Philander Moore. The Rebels are hosting Alabama, the top team in my Power Rankings, on Saturday. They were 26-point underdogs at most spots already. After the suspensions were announced, most books adjusted to 27 1/2.

                                --Wake Forest owns a 16-7-1 spread record as a home underdog during Jim Grobe’s 11-year tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, the Demon Deacons were 6 1/2-point underdogs for Saturday’s crucial ACC showdown vs. Va. Tech.

                                --The ‘over’ is 5-1 for Ga. Tech, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 for Virginia. The Cavs host the Yellow Jackets on Saturday as seven-point home underdogs. The total is 55 ½.

                                --Oklahoma St. has covered the spread in eight straight road favorite roles. The Cowboys are laying 7 ½ points Saturday at Texas. The Longhorns are home underdogs for just the third time since 2001. They are 0-2 ATS in the two previous spots.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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