The Bum's ALDS & NLDS Championship Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Rangers (96-66) at Tigers (95-67)

Game: 4

Venue: Rangers Ballpark in Arlington

Date: October 11, 2011 8:05 PM EDT

After winning the first two games of the AL championship series, the Texas Rangers head to Detroit with the right man on the mound to help pad their advantage.

Colby Lewis looks to remain undefeated for his career in the postseason as he tries to help the Rangers earn a sixth consecutive playoff victory Tuesday night against the Tigers.

Four innings after he tied the game with a solo home run, Nelson Cruz hit the first walkoff grand slam in postseason history in the 11th to give Texas a 7-3 victory in Game 2 on Monday. Cruz, who homered for the decisive run in a 3-2 victory in Game 1, is 4 for 7 with six RBIs in the series.

"It's special," Cruz said. "When you get a chance to get a W, that's the most important thing."

Winners of five straight since losing 9-0 in the division series opener versus Tampa Bay on Sept. 30, the Rangers are filled with confidence as they head to Detroit in a comfortable situation.

"It's amazing when you play around those group of guys," Cruz said. "Everybody is pulling the same way."

Though Texas dropped four of six at Detroit during the season, it should feel confident with Lewis (1-0, 1.50 ERA) taking the ball.

The right-hander allowed only a solo homer and struck out six in six innings of a 4-3 win at Tampa in Game 3 to improve to 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in five postseason starts.

"It's the comfortability aspect of things," Lewis said. "Basically the more you do it, the more you go out there, the more you understand what it takes to perform and be on that stage."

Lewis went 0-1 with a 15.95 ERA in two starts against the Tigers this season. He allowed five runs, 10 hits and walked three in four innings while not factoring in the decision of a 6-5 loss at Comerica Park on Aug. 2.

Detroit counters with Doug Fister (1-1, 6.52), who hopes his success at home during the season carries over into the playoffs.

Acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline, Fister went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA in 11 appearances - 10 starts - for the Tigers. In his first outing with his new team Aug. 3, Fister allowed three runs in seven innings of a 5-4 win over Texas at Comerica Park.

The right-hander went 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA in five home starts for the Tigers.

"Obviously, there's a huge fan base in Detroit, which is terrific to play in front of," said Fister, 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in two starts versus Texas this season. "It's been very prevalent. It's something that gives you chills."

Fister gave up six runs and struck out six in 4 2-3 innings of a 9-3 loss at New York when Game 1 of the ALDS resumed Oct. 1. However, he yielded only one run in five innings of a 3-2 victory at Yankee Stadium in Game 5 on Thursday.

Though his team is down 0-2 and Cruz is 7 for 14 with a home run and two doubles against him, Fister does not feel any added pressure taking the mound in this must-win scenario.

"It can't change the approach for the pitcher at all," Fister said. "It doesn't change the mindset, it doesn't change how you attack hitters."

Ryan Raburn provided all of Detroit's Game 2 scoring with a three-run homer in the third inning as the Tigers left 13 runners on base. Detroit is 2 for 19 with runners in scoring position in the series.

"It's been a great two games. It didn't go the right way, obviously," manager Jim Leyland said. "(The Rangers) earned it, and we didn't quite get it done. We haven't been able to come up with any big hits."

Added to the postseason roster before Game 2 after Magglio Ordonez was lost for the playoffs with an ankle injury, Detroit's Delmon Young went 0 for 4 on Monday. Young, who went 6 for 19 with three homers in the ALDS, returned to action after he was expected to miss this series with an oblique injury.

He is 3 for 10 versus Lewis, while Tigers catcher Alex Avila - 2 for 25 with 10 strikeouts in the postseason - is 3 for 9 with two homers.

Victor Martinez (5 for 11), Miguel Cabrera (5 for 12) and leadoff hitter Austin Jackson (6 for 15, one homer) have also had success when facing Lewis.

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers look to take 3-0 series lead in ALCS

TEXAS RANGERS

at DETROIT TIGERS


First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -140, Texas +130, Total: 8.5

The Tigers hope their fortunes will turn when they return home to host Texas for Game 3 of the ALCS on Tuesday night.

Detroit suffered a heartbreaking loss in Game 2, losing a 3-2 lead in the seventh and stranding 13 runners before losing on Nelson Cruz’s 11th-inning, walk-off grand slam. Based on the regular season, the Tigers have the pitching advantage in Game 3 with Doug Fister going against Colby Lewis. But Lewis has been a postseason star. He shut down the Rays with six innings of one-run ball in the ALDS and is now 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five career playoff starts. With the Tigers already reeling and the Rangers’ quality potential payout, TEXAS is the pick.

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend in support of the Rangers:

Play On - Road teams (TEXAS) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, in October games. (44-17 since 1997.) (72.1%, +32.8 units. Rating = 4*).

Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA with Seattle and Detroit in the regular season) held his own in the ALDS. His ERA was ugly against the Yankees (6.52 ERA), but his Game 1 outing was marred by the three runners he left on base with two outs, all of whom scored when Al Alburquerque gave up a grand slam. Fister bounced back in their decisive Game 5 win, holding the Yankees to one run over five innings in New York.

Fister certainly enjoyed Comerica Park after joining the Tigers in August. He went 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over five home starts with Detroit, all of them Tigers wins, and he’s thrown 16 consecutive shutout innings at Comerica.

Texas is familiar with Fister from his Mariners days, and Nelson Cruz (1.390 OPS in 15 plate appearances) and David Murphy (6-for-16, two HR) have hit him hard. But most of the Rangers lineup has struggled against the 6-foo-8 righty, including Josh Hamilton (2-for-10), Elvis Andrus (3-for-19), Ian Kinsler (.235 OBP in 17 PAs) and Michael Young (.588 OPS in 17 PAs).

Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA in the regular season) was much better on the road than at home this year, going 10-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 18 road starts. He was torched by the Tigers twice this year, though. In a June start in Arlington, Lewis allowed nine runs and 10 hits, including four home runs, in 3.1 innings. In Detroit in August, he allowed five runs (four earned) and 13 base runners in 4+ innings. Since returning from Japan as a new man last year, he’s faced the Tigers five times and allowed four-plus runs in all of them. One positive piece of information for Lewis versus Detroit: Brennan Boesch has gotten him for two homers over 15 career at-bats, but is out for the season after undergoing thumb surgery.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 23-*13-*1 63.89% +5685

Tuesday, October 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas +117 500

Detroit - Over 8.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals, Brewers Head To St. Louis For Game 3

Thirty runs later, the NLCS shifts to St. Louis for Game 3 with the Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers knotted a win apiece. Charged with trying to quell the bats that have ruled this series so far will be Chris Carpenter for St. Louis and Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo.

Carpenter and the Cardinals went off on a -145 MLB money line for Wednesday's matchup at Busch Stadium. Despite the scoring onslaught – and the fact St. Louis and Milwaukee ranked first and fifth respectively in the NL in scoring this year – the opening total was seven runs.

Each lineup took a turn single-handedly destroying the totals set by oddsmakers for Games 1 and 2. Paced by a trio of 2-run homers, the Brewers rallied past the Cardinals on Sunday for a 9-6 win with the game closing on a 7½-run total. The MLB odds went up to 8½ for Monday's contest, and the 'over' was still no contest as St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols led the way to a 12-3 rout that evened the NLCS.

No starting pitcher has been on his game, to put it nicely. Zack Greinke made it through six innings in Game 1, the only starter to go at least five so far, and the Brewers did improve to 17-0 when he's been on the mound at Miller Park this season. But Greinke had anything but a quality start in allowing all six Cardinals runs.

St. Louis manager Tony La Russa has been his usual quick self in going to the bullpen; one might say he even waited too long before pulling Jaime Garcia in Sunday's series opener. That figures to change with Carpenter on the home bump in Game 3.

Carpenter will have had his usual rest since we last saw him hurl the Cards past the Phillies in Game 5 of their NLDS. He bested Philadelphia's Roy Halladay in a classic 1-0 duel, his second complete-game shutout in his last three starts after pitching the Redbirds into the playoffs in a whitewashing of the Astros on the final day of the regular season.

The big right-hander also blanked the Brewers not too long ago, tossing the gem here at Busch on Sept. 7. That was Carpenter's second home win this season in as many starts against Milwaukee, compared to an 0-2 record in two assignments at Miller Park where his ERA was 8.18.

Could this be the game Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks breaks out of his postseason funk? Weeks is hitting just .120 (3-for-25) in seven playoff games, but is 6-for-10 lifetime against Carpenter with three big flies. He also homered in Game 2 to temporarily cut into an early 5-0 St. Louis advantage.

Gallardo has been putting hitters into postseason funks with two fine trips to the mound. The young righty helped the Brewers to two wins in the NLDS vs. Arizona, including the decisive fifth contest, tossing 14 innings combined and allowing just two runs. Both runs came on solo homers.

His work against the Cardinals this year began on a sweet note before turning sour. Gallardo tossed eight innings of 1-hit baseball in a 4-0 Milwaukee win here in St. Louis back in early-May. The Redbirds then proceeded to beat on him the next three times they faced Gallardo, handing him the loss in each outing. Two of those three came at Busch Stadium with the Cards slapping four homers in his most recent 11 innings.

Speaking of four homers, Pujols has taken Gallardo deep four times over the years (three times in 2011) to go with his .444 lifetime average (12-for-27).

Carpenter and Gallardo went head-to-head on Aug. 11 at Busch III with St. Louis taking a 5-2 win as -120 chalk. Gallardo was essentially done in by Pujols and Rafael Furcal homers in the first inning while Carpenter got through eight innings and had the luxury of four double plays behind him.

Relatively young by MLB umpire standards, the 46-year-old Samuel Woodford Holbrook will bivouac behind the plate for Game 3. If you're banking on the 'over' continuing its run in this series, Holbrook might be able to help you out following a campaign that saw his plate assignments cash 20-11-2 to the high side.

Holbrook should be calling that first pitch at 8:05 p.m. (ET), though Mother Nature could again spoil Major League Baseball's plans. There is presently a 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the St. Louis area on Wednesday and temperatures are expected to be in the upper-60s at game time.

The clubs are scheduled to reconvene for Game 4 at the same time on Thursday with Randy Wolf and Kyle Lohse the listed starters.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/11/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/07/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*255 Detail
10/06/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*215 Detail
10/05/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-*3-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
10/03/11 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1000 Detail
Totals 23-*15-*1 60.53% +4635

Tigers - 121

Under 7.5

Wednesday, October 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -144 500

St. Louis - Over 7 500

I was late in pick my selections for the Tigers game so it won't be counted on my record.....But this is who i like.....

[StarDust Bum]

Carpenter takes mound for NLCS Game 3

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS


NLCS Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -145, Milwaukee +135, Total: 7

After a split in Milwaukee, the NLCS shifts to St. Louis for Game 3 as the Cardinals host the Brewers on Wednesday night.

The Brewers lost both their road games, in Arizona, in the NLDS and are 39-44 away from home on the year, by far the worst among this year’s postseason teams and just 17th among all MLB teams. They’ll throw Yovani Gallardo on Wednesday night, and he’s never fared well against the Cards. In 11 career starts against St. Louis, Gallardo is 1-7 with a 5.66 ERA, and the Brewers went 2-9 in those games. Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter seems to have regained his old form, with four scoreless outings (three shutouts) in his past seven starts. ST. LOUIS is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend working in the Cards favor:

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST. LOUIS) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (63-15 over the last 5 seasons, 80.8%, +43.1 units. Rating = 4*).

Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA in the regular season) started the season slow but he’s finishing strong. St. Louis has won six of his past seven starts and among his three shutouts during that span was the decisive NLDS Game 5 win at Philadelphia and September 7 at home against Milwaukee. If you exclude his Game 2 NLDS start that came on three-days rest, he’s 4-0 with a 0.92 ERA over his past six starts that came on regular rest (as Wednesday night’s start will).

Carpenter split his four starts against the Brewers this season, but he won his last two. Along with the shutout in September, he held them to two runs over eight innings (though he allowed 13 base runners) on August 11.

Gallardo (17-10, 3.52 ERA in the regular season) had two strong starts in the NLDS (eight innings of one-run ball in Game 1 and six innings of one-run ball in Game 5) and the Brewers have won his past five starts. But four of those starts, including both NLDS outings, came at home. He is 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road, and the Brewers were 7-10 in his road starts.

He did win in St. Louis in May, throwing eight shutout, one-hit innings. But the Cards got him for a total of 16 runs (15 earned) over 15.2 innings in August and September starts.

The Cardinals bats are heating up, as they scored 18 runs and had 26 hits (.333 BA) in Games 1 and 2. Albert Pujols has positively hammered Gallardo over the years: 12-for-27 (.444 BA) with four home runs, 11 RBI and five walks. He’s also 12-for-29 (.414 BA) with six doubles and six RBI in the 2011 postseason.

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers look to even ALCS on Wednesday

TEXAS RANGERS

at DETROIT TIGERS


ALCS Game 4 - Texas leads series 2-1
First pitch: Wednesday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -115, Detroit +105, Total: 9.5

After finally getting the bats going in Game 3, Detroit looks to even up the series Wednesday afternoon as the Tigers host Texas in a pivotal Game 4.

Taking the hill for the Rangers on Wednesday will be lefty Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA during regular season). Harrison has had a horrible time against the Tigers in his career, going 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in five career starts. Opposing Harrison, will be 22-year-old right-hander Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA in regular season). Porcello has a 6.30 ERA in two career starts against Texas, but pitched well his last outing against them on June 7, throwing six innings and allowing one run on six hits in an 8-1 victory. Texas has had some difficulty playing under the sun where it is only 27-24 (74-44 at night), while Detroit is a terrific 39-24 (+13.6 Units) in day games. The Rangers are labeled as the favorite on Wednesday afternoon in which they are 79-47 (63%), opposed to the Tigers who are a measly 21-32 (40%) when tagged as an underdog. Texas also has been very good bouncing back after a loss, going 42-25 (63%) in such games. The Rangers know they must win with Detroit ace Justin Verlander scheduled to pitch Game 5, so expect a desperate and motivated TEXAS team to grab Game 4 on Wednesday afternoon.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends in support of the Rangers:

Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. (140-60 since 1997.) (70%, +59.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - in the 4th game of a playoff series, after having won 3 of their last 4 games. (40-18 since 1997.) (69%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Harrison, who has struggled against the Tigers has not had a fun time pitching at Comerica where he is 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in three starts in Detroit. Harrison may have gained some confidence after a decent performance his last outing against the Rays, where he threw five innings and allowed two runs on five hits and got the win in a 4-3 victory. Detroit’s current roster is batting .364 lifetime against Harrison, which includes Ryan Raburn (8-for-12, 2 HR, 7 RBI), Miguel Cabrera (6-for-15, 3 RBI) and Austin Jackson (5-for-10, 2 BB). The Rangers are batting .228 in the playoffs, with the biggest culprits being Michael Young (3-for-27, 4 K), Mitch Moreland (2-of-17, 1 HR) and Elvis Andrus (4-for-24, 4 K).

Porcello is coming off two nice scoreless innings of relief in Game 1, where he didn’t allow a hit. The youngster had a modest performance his last first playoff start against New York, allowing four runs over six innings, and was tagged with the loss in the 10-1 defeat. The Tigers are licking their chops to get the ball to Verlander for Game 5 and would like nothing more than to have the series tied up when he takes the mound. Delmon Young was scratched from the Game 4 lineup and is uncertain for Wednesday. Austin Jackson needs to get things started at the beginning of the lineup as he did Tuesday with three hits and an RBI.

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers, Cardinals Clash In Crucial Game 4

Been there, done that.

And the Brewers don’t want to do it again...if they can help.

We’re talking about Milwaukee postseason history against St. Louis, which was a brief but historic one prior to meeting up again with the Cardinals in this year’s NLCS.

Remember that once upon a time, the Brew Crew campaigned in the American League, and in the magical year of 1982 managed to advance to the World Series, the first-ever such excursion for the franchise that began as the expansion Seattle Pilots in 1969.

Eventually, however, that experience turned into a negative one for Milwaukee, as it hooked Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals in the "Beer City" World Series. Like they did in Game 1 in 1982 (when winning 10-0), the Brewers romped in this year's NLCS opener vs. the Cards over the weekend.

Unfortunately, as in 1982, the Brewers also lost Game 2 vs. the Redbirds. And a difference between 1982 and now is that the first two games in that long-ago series were played in St. Louis. Milwaukee is certainly hoping that history stops repeating itself as soon as possible, as it went on to lose to the Redbirds in seven games in the 1982 Series.

Now, the Brew Crew has to travel to the new Busch Stadium for the middle three games of this year’s NLCS. It's a daunting assignment considering the Brewers’ season-long struggles away from Miller Park, and capitulations on the road at Arizona in the NLDS, losing both games last week in Phoenix by a combined score of 18-7.

Likewise, Game 4 on Thursday figures to be a challenge for Milwaukee, although it might take some encouragement from a pitching matchup that features its own Randy Wolf against the hittable Kyle Lohse. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by TBS.

Although the Brewers lost on September 6 at Busch against Lohse, who pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four hits that night, Milwaukee might still like its chances in this matchup. The Brewers chased Lohse after five innings in the previous meeting July 10 at Miller Park, with Milwaukee scoring four runs in five innings off Lohse in an eventual 8-3 win. The Brew Crew also beat Lohse on May 7 at Busch.

For his career, Lohse is only 4-8 vs. Milwaukee, with an unimpressive 4.80 ERA. And in his lone postseason appearance this season, Lohse was rocked in Game One of the NLDS at Philadelphia, allowing six runs (five of them earned) in just 5 1/3 IP vs. the Phils in an eventual 11-6 Redbirds loss.

Brewer starter Wolf, however, is not exactly hitting the NLCS with a head of steam, either. In his lone NLDS appearance against the Diamondbacks, Wolf was pummeled to the tune of seven runs on eight hits and three walks in just three innings of work in a 10-6 Game 4 loss at Chase Field. The veteran lefty had a number of shaky outings the last six weeks of the regular season, and over his last three starts has 26 hits and 7 walks in addition to 17 earned runs over just 14 2/3 IP (10.43 ERA).

"Wolfie" did put the clamps on the Cards the last time he faced them on September 5 at Busch, however, limiting them to just one run on four hits in eight solid innings of work en route to a 4-1 Milwaukee win. That effort, however, came on the heels of being smoked the week before at Miller Park by the Redbirds, who lashed three homers among their seven hits that resulted in six runs over just five innings against Wolf. The Cards won that one, 8-3.

Wolf’s career numbers vs. St. Louis are modest at best, with an 8-8 record and 3.91 ERA.

Early trending in this series pointed to the ‘over’ as the teams raced well beyond posted totals in the first two games when tallying a combined 30 runs. Whatever happens in Wednesday’s Game 3 between aces Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter, it would be no surprise if the slugfest element returns to this NLCS for Game 4 at Busch.

[StarDust Bum]

Verlander, Tigers Battle Rangers ALCS Game 5 Preview

Well, Detroit at least guaranteed there would be a Game 5 of the ALCS when beating Texas by a 5-2 count in Tuesday’s Game 3.

Moreover, they assured ace and likely AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander one more outing in this series. Not to mention assuring Tigers fans of at least two more trips to Comerica Park, where the eyeglasses have been thankfully been restored to the Ernie Harwell statue at the entrance to the ballyard.

Depending upon Wednesday’s result, the Tigers can either put themselves in a position to take a 3-2 lead back to Arlington, or be fighting to stay alive in a series that Texas would be able to wrap up if it prevailed in Game 4. Such are the important dynamics for this Game 5 matchup on Thursday at colorful Comerica. First pitch is slated at 4:19 p.m. (ET). TV coverage will be provided by Fox, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (just off of the DL himself) on the call.

As mentioned, Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA in regular season) will get another chance at the Rangers after losing a rain-delayed Game 1 in Arlington last Saturday. Again, he will be opposed by Texas lefty C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in regular season).

It’s worth noting, however, that neither Verlander nor Rangers ace Wilson have been setting the world on fire in the postseason.

As for Verlander, he hasn’t looked his normal dominant self in the playoffs, allowing eight runs (all earned), 12 hits and five walks over 13 IP (6.75 ERA), although he did get the win in a crucial Game 3 over the Yanks in the ALDS. Detroit can be somewhat encouraged, however, by Verlander’s 6-2 mark and 2.31 ERA over his career vs. Texas. Not to mention his 10-3 record, 0.94 WHIP, and .198 OBA at Comerica during the regular season.

Meanwhile, Wilson has not exactly been overpowering lately, either, allowing ten runs (eight earned) and 13 hits over only 9 2/3 IP in a pair of games vs. the Rays and Tigers, with the latter outing interrupted by rain delays and limiting him to just 4 2/3 IP last Saturday at Rangers Ballpark.

In two starts vs. the Tigers this season, Wilson has allowed 12 hits and 10 runs (seven of those earned) in just 11 1/3 IP, with an ERA at a hefty 5.56.

Of some concern to the Tigers is the status of DH Victor Martinez, who strained an intercostal muscle on a home run swing in Game 3 on Tuesday.

There were several positive signs for the Tigers in Game 3, especially regarding an offense that awakened after a sleepy first two games in Texas. Aside from Martinez hitting his homer, Miguel Cabrera and his bat resurfaced with a long home run and Austin Jackson cranked out three hits as the Tigers clawed back into the series.

Such fireworks are crucial because the Detroit offense has been missing a couple of capable components. One of those, OF Delmon Young, sat out Game 3 because of a sore oblique and is listed as day-to-day by manager Jim Leyland. That’s more encouraging than the status of OF Magglio Ordoñez, who is out for the duration of the playoffs with a broken ankle.

Note that the Tigers have also received solid work from their bullpen combo of set-up man Joaquin Benoit and closer Jose Valverde, who have combined to allow just two hits and no runs over five innings of work in the last two games of this series. This might prove to be a deciding advantage for the Tigers, especially since Texas manager Ron Washington is contemplating some adjustments in his bullpen, specifically regarding set-up man Koji Uehara, who has not been effective in his role lately.

As for the Rangers, also watch the status of 3B Adrian Beltre, who was limping on a sore knee during Tuesday’s Game 3, limiting his range somewhat at the hot corner.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 4:19 PM ET Texas +149 500
Detroit -

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers look to even up NLCS with Cards

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS


NLCS Game 4 - St. Louis leads series 2-1
First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -135, Milwaukee +125, Total: 8.5

The Cardinals can move one game closer to avoiding a return trip to Milwaukee when they host the Brewers for Game 4 of the NLCS Thursday night.

With St. Louis’ Game 3 win, the Brewers’ road losing streak ran to four and they fell to 39-45 (-8.1 Units) away from home of the year. But this was a team that went 4-4 in St. Louis during the regular season, and Game 4 starter Randy Wolf has had back-to-back excellent road starts against the Cards. He and Cardinals righty Kyle Lohse make the pitching matchup in this game very even, especially with both bullpens throwing well. And in a matchup that’s close to a coin flip, underdog MILWAUKEE is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a pair of trends backing the Brewers as well:

MILWAUKEE is 45-25 (64.3%, +19.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

MILWAUKEE is 57-28 (67.1%, +23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA in the regular season) was knocked around in Arizona in his Game 4 NLDS start, allowing seven runs and 11 base runners, including two home runs, in just three innings. It was a third straight ugly outing for Wolf, who’s now allowed 17 runs and 34 base runners over his past 14.2 innings (10.43 ERA, 2.32 WHIP).

But the lefty threw a great game in St. Louis a month ago, holding the Cardinals to one run over eight innings in a victory. He also threw eight innings of one-run ball in a victory at Busch Stadium in August and has won four of his past five starts in St. Louis.

Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA in the regular season) finished the regular season strong, but did not pitch well in the NLDS, allowing six runs (five earned) over 5.1 innings in Philadelphia.

Lohse’s overall track record against Milwaukee is not good (4-8, 4.89 ERA in 17 career starts) but the results in St. Louis have been more encouraging. His six innings of shutout ball on September 6 was the Cards’ first Busch Stadium win over the Brewers with Lohse on the mound. But he’s made five quality starts in six outings against the Brewers in St. Louis, posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in these 39 innings against Milwaukee.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -135 500

St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals NLCS Game 5

Zack Greinke really hasn't been much of a mystery to hitters this postseason at Miller Park, and is hoping a start on the road will help turn him around.

Jaime Garcia is happy to be home where he was significantly better in 2011, and he's looking to put a horrible outing in the NLCS opener behind him.

A rematch of Game 1's starters is in store for Friday's NLCS contest when the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will break a 2-2 deadlock. Overnight numbers had the Cardinals on a -115 money line with the MLB odds showing 7½ for the total.

Milwaukee evened things up Thursday night with a 4-2 victory in Game 4. Randy Wolf overcame two early solo homers by St. Louis to toss seven innings for the Brewers, and then turned it over to the Brewers bullpen to finish things off.

The Cardinals closed Game 4 as 135-140 favorites, and the 6-run final was the first 'under' of the NLCS following a pair of 'overs' and a 'push.'

Garcia was playing with fire from the get-go this past Sunday when he and Greinke opened the series. He walked two and hit a batter in the first inning and was lucky to escape trailing just 2-1. The only 3-up, 3-down frame he had was the fourth, when the Cards had gifted Garcia with a 5-2 lead. The Brewers opened up on him the next inning, chasing him with four hits to eventually retake an 8-5 lead.

His previous postseason start saw Garcia make just one mistake, but it cost him and the Cardinals with Ben Francisco's 3-run pinch blast in Game 3 of the NLDS giving the Phillies the win. Still, it was a much better outing and came here at Busch where the Cards were 11-4 behind their lefty during the regular season. One of those 11 wins was a 2-hit shutout against the Brewers in early May.

Milwaukee's 17-0 mark at home behind Greinke has been well publicized. But just like that mark was a key to the team's success at Miller Park, the Brewers' 6-7 record (4.70 ERA) when he pitches on the road equally reflects the club's struggles away from home.

The Brewers have won each of Greinke's two postseason starts, both at home, but Greinke was anything but solid in either outing. The Diamondbacks took him yard three times in Game 2 of the NLDS, and the Cardinals scored six times during his six innings in the NLCS opener when he faced Garcia.

He pitched well enough to win his lone start at Busch this season, but Brewers bats were silent in a 2-0 loss to Chris Carpenter at the Cards in a game that closed as a pick 'em at the MLB betting windows. Overall vs. St. Louis in 2011, Greinke was 2-1 in three assignments with a 3.15 ERA (20 IP).

Bill Miller, Friday's plate umpire, doesn't give bettors much of an angle following a 17-17-1 record on the totals in 2011. He did wind up the campaign going 5-1 'over' and was 3-0-1 to the high side in games that involved the Brewers or Cardinals.

The 15-year veteran is working his eighth postseason series and called Game 3 of last year's Fall Classic, Texas' only win over the Giants in the 5-game set. Totals in his seven previous playoff plate assignments have split 3-3-1.

A clear and windy day is in the forecast for St. Louis on Friday. West winds in the 12-15 mph range will be blowing out to right in the evening when temps are expected to begin in the mid-50s at game time before dropping to the mid-to-upper 40s.

Milwaukee's win on Thursday means the series will go back to Miller Park for at least a sixth game, which will be Sunday afternoon on TBS (4:05 p.m. ET). A pitching rematch of Game 2 is expected with Edwin Jackson going for St. Louis opposite Shaun Marcum for the Brewers.

[StarDust Bum]

American League Championship Series


Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Detroit at Texas (-170) 3-2 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)
2 Detroit at Texas (-148) 7-3 FAVORITE OVER (9)
3 Texas at Detroit (-125) 5-2 FAVORITE UNDER (8.5)
4 Texas (-120) at Detroit 7-3 FAVORITE OVER (9)
5 Texas at Detroit (-150) Oct. 13 FAVORITE OVER (7)
6 Detroit at Texas Oct. 15
*7 Detroit at Texas Oct. 16





National League Championship Series


Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 St. Louis at Milwaukee (-142) 9-6 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
2 St. Louis (+123) at Milwaukee 12-3 UNDERDOG OVER (8.5)
3 Milwaukee at St. Louis (-150) 4-3 FAVORITE PUSH (7)
4 UNDERDOG at St. Louis Oct. 13 UNDERDOG UNDER (8.5)
5 Milwaukee at St. Louis Oct. 14
6 St. Louis at Milwaukee Oct. 16
*7 St. Louis at Milwaukee Oct. 17

[StarDust Bum]

Greinke-Garcia duel in NLCS Game 5


MILWAUKEE BREWERS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS


NLCS Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -125, Milwaukee +115, Total: 7.5

The Cards have one more chance to take advantage of the Brewers’ ineptitude on the road when they host Milwaukee for Game 5 of the NLCS on Friday night.

St. Louis will have the right pitcher on the mound. Jaime Garcia has been outstanding in Busch Stadium throughout his career, where he’s 16-9 with a 2.37 ERA over 31 career regular-season starts. Meanwhile, Brewers Game 5 starter Zack Greinke was 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the road this year, and he’s been knocked around in both of his postseason starts (10 ER in 11 IP). The Game 4 win pushed Milwaukee’s road record to only 1-3 in the playoffs and 40-45 on the entire season. The money lines are close to even, but they shouldn’t be. ST. LOUIS is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working in the Cardinals’ favor:

Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST. LOUIS) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season. (73-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +38.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA in the regular season) hasn’t delivered in his first two postseason starts. The Brewers won both of his outings (NLDS Game 2 and NLCS Game 1) thanks to outstanding run support, but Greinke has given up 10 runs and 16 hits in 11 innings so far. St. Louis got to him for six runs in six innings in Game 1. The one positive for Greinke in the postseason is his 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.

There are some good recent road trends for Greinke. He allowed two runs or less in six of his seven post-All-Star break road starts, lasting at least six innings in all of those quality starts. That included a tough-luck loss in St. Louis when he held the Cardinals to two runs over seven innings on September 7. He’s allowed only three runs in Busch Stadium over 14 career innings as a starter. He’s also held Albert Pujols relatively in check (6-for-21, no home runs).

The Cards are 11-5 at home this season with Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA in the regular season) starting. But one of those losses was a quality start in Game 3 of their NLDS against the Phillies, when he allowed three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers, but he’s been dazzling at home. In four starts against Milwaukee at Busch Stadium, Garcia has allowed only six runs (two earned) and 18 hits over 28 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout in May when he fanned eight batters.

The Brewers are hoping this game could unearth Corey Hart from a brutal slump. Hart is 1-for-12 in the NLCS, but he’s 9-for-22 career against Garcia.