Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/6 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Detroit at NY Yankees
The Tigers look to bounce back from their 10-1 loss in Game 4 and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Detroit is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 985-986: Detroit at NY Yankees (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.070; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140); Over


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 987-988: Arizona at Milwaukee (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.902; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.863
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 989-990: St. Louis at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.514; Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.453
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, October 6

AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 5 - Tied 2-2
DETROIT at NY YANKEES, 8:35 PM ET
FISTER: DETROIT 4-16 in road games when playing with a day off
NOVA: NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, October 6

Fister's last start for Seattle was here July 26, a 4-1 Bronx win (Fister allowed three runs in seven IP); he gave up six runs in 4.2 innings in odd Game 1 "relief" appearance, when he resumed pitching suspended game Saturday. In his last seven actual starts, Fister is 6-0, 0.85. Bronx is 4-0 against the Tigers this year when they score 5+ runs. Nova hasn't lost since June 3 in Anaheim; he is 12-0, 3.29 in his last 15 starts. Saturday, he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings of relief. Nova didn't make a start vs Detroit this season.

[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, October 6

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Tigers at Yankees - Game 5: What bettors need to know
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-160, 9)

Series tied 2-2

THE STORY: Three months after he was demoted to the minor leagues, rookie righthander Ivan Nova takes the mound Thursday for the New York Yankees in a winner-takes-all Game 5 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium. Nova would rank among the unlikeliest of starters for a deciding game – if it were not for the presence of opposing starter Doug Fister, a trade-deadline acquisition from Seattle. Everything points in New York’s favor: home-field advantage, the momentum from Tuesday’s stay-alive 10-1 rout in Detroit, and Nova’s stellar relief effort in Game 1, when he outpitched Fister by tossing six scoreless innings in relief before giving up a pair of meaningless runs. Texas awaits the winner in Saturday’s Game 1 of the AL Championship Series.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Doug Fister (0-1, 11.57 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.84 ERA)

Fister turned his year around with Detroit, going 8-1 and allowing five runs in his last seven regular-season starts. While he was charged with six runs Saturday, Fister had retired 11 straight at one point – including five strikeouts – and was one out away from a 1-0 deficit when the Yankees struck for six two-out runs in the sixth.

Nova is undefeated since June 3, having 13 consecutive decisions. He won seven straight starts upon his recall from the minors and was 8-2 at Yankee Stadium during the regular season. Although he walked four batters Saturday, Nova has been able to avoid the big inning by surrendering only four homers in his last 12 starts.

ABOUT THE TIGERS: AL batting champion Miguel Cabrera torched the Yankees during the regular season, but he is 0-for-5 with three walks in the past two games. Detroit is getting zero production from too many spots in the lineup. Catcher Alex Avila is 0-for-12, Wilson Betemit 0-for-8 and leadoff batter Austin Jackson 1-for-10 in the series. Rookie reliever Al Alburquerque has been hit hard in both appearances. The Tigers haven’t lost back-to-back games since Aug. 28-29.

ABOUT THE YANKEES: No. 9 hitter Brett Gardner is 5-for-13 with five RBIs, including a pair of two-out, two-run hits in each win. After an 0-for-10 start to the series, Alex Rodriguez had a pair of hits in Game 4. Robinson Cano has eight RBIs in the series and missed a homer by inches off Fister in Game 1. Closer Mariano Rivera is rested and available for multiple innings, and CC Sabathia may also be used in relief.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.
* Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings.
* Tigers are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Tigers are 16-38 in the last 54 meetings in New York.

FINAL PITCH: The home-field advantage may not loom as large as many think. Since Division Series play was implemented in 1995, the visiting team has won Game 5 eight of 14 times. In addition, the team that won Game 3 of a LDS that was tied emerged victorious on 19 of 23 occasions.


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[Udog]

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 15

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Friday, October 7

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WINNIPEG (8 - 5) at HAMILTON (7 - 6) - 10/7/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in October games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 6-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, October 8

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CALGARY (8 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 6) - 10/8/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 10

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TORONTO (3 - 10) at MONTREAL (8 - 5) - 10/10/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.
MONTREAL is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 9) at EDMONTON (7 - 6) - 10/10/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 102-65 ATS (+30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
EDMONTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 6-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 15

Winnipeg (8-5) @ Hamilton (8-5)-- Bombers beat Hamilton twice so far this season, 24-16 (+9) here in Week 1, then 30-27 (-3.5) at home seven weeks late. Winnipeg was 7-1 at its bye, but lost four of five since, with last three games all decided by 6 or less points- they're 4-2 on road, 4-0 as road dog (underdog covered all six of their road games). TiCats are 5-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorites-they're 5-0 allowing less than 28 points. Eight of last ten Hamilton games went over the total.

Calgary (8-5) @ BCLions (7-6)-- Road team won both series games this season; Stamps (+1.5) won 34-32 here in Week 2, then lost 32-19 (-5) at home three weeks ago. Red-hot Lions won last six games, scoring average of 33.3 ppg- they were 1-6 before that. BC covered its last three tries as a favorite. Calgary is 3-3 since bye; they're 5-1 on foreign soil, with only loss at Hamilton- Week 2 win here was only other game thy've been dog all season. Seven of Lions'last nine games stayed under the total.

Toronto (3-10) @ Montreal (8-5)--Alouettes already beat Toronto twice this season, 40-17 (-10) here in Week 3, 36-23 (+5.5) three weeks later. Argos lost four of last five games, are 3-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 6-23-1-5-22-10 points. Five of their last seven games stayed under total. Montreal won three of last four games after 2-4 skid; they're 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 4-24-23-30 points, with losses to Saskatchewan/Montreal.

Saskatchewan (4-9) @ Edmonton (7-6)-- Eskimos lost six of eight after a 5-0 start; they they beat Roughriders 42-28 (+6.5) in Week 1, are 2-2 as home favorites, but they've lost last three home games SU. Roughriders are 2-4 as road underdogs; after 1-7 start, they won three games in row, but lost last two weeks, by 42-5/40-3 scores. Nine of last 11 Roughrider games stayed under total. Edmonton is 5-0 when it allowed 23 points or less, 2-6 when it allows more. Riders scored 5-3 points last two games.




CFL


Week 15

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Trend Report
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Friday, October 9

7:30 PM
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home


Saturday, October 8

10:00 PM
CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Calgary's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, October 10

1:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

4:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
Saskatchewan is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Edmonton's last 12 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


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[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, October 6

PHILADELPHIA at BOSTON, 7:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 21-26 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +200
BOSTON: 48-38 SU as a home favorite of -200 or less

MONTREAL at TORONTO, 7:00 PM ET
MONTREAL: 51-54 SU as an underdog
TORONTO: 27-50 SU first half of the season

PITTSBURGH at VANCOUVER, 10:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 18-10 SU in a road game where where the total is 5.5
VANCOUVER: 103-52 SU as a favorite