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**Udog** · 10-05-2011, 11:57 PM

Thursday’s betting tips: Game 5 umpire tough on Tigers

Who’s hot

MLB: The Yankees are 18-6 in Ivan Nova’s last 24 starts as a favorite.

NCAAF: Oregon is 9-3 against the spread after its bye week.

NCAAF: Western Kentucky is 7-3 against the spread vs. teams with a losing record.

NHL: Pittsburgh was 5-1 in preseason play, allowing just 11 total goals.

Who’s not

MLB: The Detroit Tigers are just 8-17 in their last 25 games with umpire Ted Barrett behind the plate.

NCAAF: Middle Tennessee State is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games.

NCAAF: Cal is 7-19 against the spread in its last 26 road games.

NHL: Montreal was 2-6 in preseason play, allowing 29 goals.

Key stat

62 – Tiger Woods shot a course-record 62 last week at Medalist Golf Club in Juniper, Fla. Woods, who has just has just 10 tournaments under his belt in 2011 is set as a +550 favorite to win the Frys.com Open which begins Thursday.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Tim Connolly, Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto placed its prized offseason acquisition on the injured reserve Wednesday after Connolly suffered an upper-body injury in practice last week. Connolly made the move retroactively, meaning he could suit up Saturday night. The club hopes Connolly, who scored 13 goals and 29 assists in 68 games with Buffalo last season, will be a good fit on its top line with sniper Phil Kessell.

Game of the day

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-165, 9)

Notable quotable

“Middle Tennessee does not like us, and we do not like them, and that is good for our conference. It is good to have that rivalry, and to be able to get excited to go out and take care of our business. But we have to make it a rivalry. They have beaten us the last three games, and we have to make it a rivalry by beating them. Here is our opportunity on Thursday night to see if we can go do that.” – Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggart about his Thursday evening matchup with Middle Tennessee State. Western Kentucky is currently set as a 11.5-point road underdog.

Notes and tips

Boston Bruins coach Claude Julien said Tuesday that the Bruins have two No. 1 goalies and will start the season with Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask splitting time between the pipes. Julien also said the team will ride the hot hand if one of the goalies is having a superior campaign. Thomas had a storybook campaign last year, winning the Vezina Trophy, the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup despite opening the season second on the depth chart. Thomas posted 35 wins in 55 starts with a 2.00 goals-against average and .938 save percentage. He then posted four playoff shutouts, including two against Vancouver in the finals. The Bruins haven’t announced their starting goalie for Thursday’s game against Philly, but you have to figure Thomas gets the call. Boston is set as a -145 favorite at home to Philly.

Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander will not be available to pitch out of the bullpen in Thursday's decisive Game 5 of the American League Division Series. Tigers manager Jim Leyland said he would not consider using his straight righthander, who threw 120 pitches and struck out 11 in Monday's victory over the Yankees. New York’s CC Sabathia is expected to be available out of the pen after also starting Monday.

The Cal Golden Bears held the Oregon Ducks’ high-scoring attack to just 15 points in a two-point loss last season and spent their bye week trying to get ready for Oregon’s offense again this time around. "We did a lot of up-tempo stuff,” Cal head coach Jeff Tedford told reporters. “The only thing they haven't seen is the speed at which it happens. That's why it's important (to get) as close as you can to simulating it. Last year, I thought we did a good job of simulating it." The Ducks are averaging 52 points per game, ranking second nationally. The Golden Bears are set as 24-point underdogs after they came within two points of upsetting Oregon last season as 18.5-point underdogs, which was the fourth time in five meetings that Cal covered the number.

**Udog** · 10-05-2011, 11:59 PM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Buccaneers are 9-0-2 vs spread in their last eleven road games.

-- Oakland is 12-4 vs spread in game following their last 16 losses.

-- New England covered 11 of last 16 games as home favorites.

-- Tennessee is 2-8 vs spread in game coming off a win.

-- Broncos are 4-11 vs spread in their last 15 home games.

-- Lions are 8-1 vs spread in their last nine home games.

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Bronx Bombers already have $126M on their payroll for 2013, and that’s with only eight players signed. Pirates have $0 committed for 2013, but Bud Selig will tell you the sport is healthier than it ever has been.

12) Rays had 4,529 empty seats for Tuesday afternoon’s Game 4; have to think that pretty soon, either they get a new stadium or they’re going to be moving. Going to be especially bitter for them next year, when the Marlins open their new stadium on the other side of the state.

11) With Chad Henne likely out for the season, why hasn’t Miami signed David Garrard? Why hasn't someone signed him?

10) Every time I read that Adam Kennedy once hit three home runs in a playoff game, I laugh; he has 78 career HR’s in 5,853 plate appearances. He’s also earned over $19M in his career. Damn.

9) If AJ Burnett got a daily paycheck this season it would’ve been for $90,164. Every day. For 182 days.

8) In 2007, over 330,000 Buicks were sold in China.

7) Alabama won its last eight football games against Vanderbilt, but they’re only 1-4-1 vs pointspread in the last six.

6) Rice is a 21-point favorite this week. In football. Against a I-A team. That’s how bad Memphis State has gotten. You could make a case for firing the Memphis coach just for letting his program slide so badly that they’re getting 21 points from Rice.

5) This is third year in a row that neither team is ranked when Georgia-Tennessee square off; before that, in eight of the previous 11 matchups, both teams had been ranked and at least one of them had been ranked in all 11. Special game for Vols’ coach Dooley, since his dad Vince is the best football coach in Georgia history.

4) Not sure who the Rangers are rooting for tonight; they were 2-7 against Bronx this season, 3-6 against the Tigers. Would guess they’re rooting a nice, long extra-inning game tonight, for sure.

3) Starting July 1, Miami Heat staffers took a 10% pay cut; that cut rose to 25% on October 1 and if the lockout is still going on April 1, they’ll be down to a 50% pay cut. Lot of these people aren’t wealthy and need the money.

2) TV ratings for Monday night’s football game, the Manning-Colts against Tampa Bay, got better TV ratings than both of Monday’s baseball playoff games combined.

1) Jets’ offense was on field for 56 plays Sunday, and was outscored 21-3 by the Baltimore defense- that doesn’t happen too often.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:00 AM

NHL preview: Eastern conference forecast and picks

The post-Stanley Cup honeymoon didn't last long for the Boston Bruins, who learned over the offseason that they might have to do without forward Marc Savard for good. While the Bruins (+450 to win the East this season) prevailed in dramatic fashion without him, they could be hard-pressed to repeat the feat after getting career-best contributions from a number of players.

There will be no shortage of challengers to the Bruins' Eastern Conference crown, either.

The Washington Capitals (+366) are confident they will be able to put their previous playoff struggles behind them. The Pittsburgh Penguins (+600) will eventually get Sidney Crosby back in the lineup, a development that is sure to make them one of the conference's most dangerous units. And challenges from a handful of up-and-coming clubs can't be discounted, either.

Here's what the Bruins will be up against as they seek defense of their first Stanley Cup championship in nearly 50 years:

BEST OVER BET: The New York Islanders (33.5 season O/U win total) are a criminally bad team on the defensive end, having allowed the most goals of any team in the East over a three-year span. Even if goaltender Evgeni Nabokov bounces back from a year away from the NHL, he should expect to see plenty of rubber rocketed his way. On the plus side, the Isles are showing marked improvement on the offensive end. John Tavares looks ready to break through the 80-point barrier this season, while rookie sniper Michael Grabner should approach 40 goals. The over went 42-35-5 in the Islanders' games last season.

BEST UNDER BET: The Philadelphia Flyers (+585) gained as much on the back end as they lost up front during an eventful offseason. Gone are lynchpin forwards Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, who combined for 59 goals and 132 points last season. Veteran Jaromir Jagr leads a parade of new faces, but he's almost certainly a step back. Fortunately, the Flyers believe they have the answer in goal in Ilya Bryzgalov, who has posted 15 shutouts the past two seasons and should cut Philly's goals against by a sizeable margin.

MOST IMPROVED: It has become fashionable to write off the Toronto Maple Leafs (40.5 season win total) before the first overpriced beer is guzzled in the Air Canada Centre platinum seats. Yet it bears pointing out that Toronto was a sizzling 18-9-6 from Feb. 1 onward - a development no doubt precipitated by the emergence of goaltender James Reimer as a star in the making. With key additions up front (Tim Connolly) and on the blue line (John-Michael Liles), only another season of good luck in the health department can keep the Leafs from threatening to end a six-year playoff drought.

TEAM TRENDING DOWN: The Flyers surprised just about everyone with the trades that sent Carter to Columbus and Richards to Los Angeles. Developing chemistry will be critical to this team's success - and with the enigmatic Jagr leading the way, Philly fans shouldn't hold their breath. After all, they aren't exactly getting the 1990s incarnation of Jagr. Bryzgalov excelled in Phoenix, but he didn't face much scrutiny in the desert. If he struggles at any point in the City of Brotherly Love, he's going to find himself facing tough questions - and tougher critics.

SLEEPER TEAM: Aided by new owner Terry Pegula shelling out bushels of cash over the offseason, the Buffalo Sabres (+935) appear to be on the path to long-term success in the East. Armed with a roster that features legitimate firepower on the forward units, a sensational defense led by behemoth Tyler Myers and new arrival Christian Ehrhoff and goaltending anchored by perennial All-Star Ryan Miller, the Sabres' time might as well be now. With health on its side, Buffalo could very well top the Eastern Conference standings.

PICK TO WIN EAST: Washington. The selection is a little boring because the Caps are the favorites to win the East, but there's no way Alex Ovechkin struggles again like he did last season, and with a stronger commitment to defense than in seasons past, the Capitals are on the fast track to finally ending their recent playoff struggles.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:01 AM

NHL preview: Western Conference forecast and picks

The Vancouver Canucks were the class of the Western Conference last season, but returning to that lofty perch will prove difficult in 2011-12.

The core of the club that reached the Stanley Cup final remains largely intact. But key losses on defense and an injury that will keep forward Ryan Kesler out to start the season have question marks surrounding the Canucks (+387 to win Western Conference), in what should be an incredibly competitive conference.

Challenges from the Detroit Red Wings (+588) and the San Jose Sharks (+502) are a yearly occurrence, while the Nashville Predators (+1,703) are riding high after reaching the second round of the postseason for the first time in franchise history. With the retooled Los Angeles Kings (+739) and staying-put Phoenix Coyotes (+1,875) also expected to make noise, picking a winner out West is no easy task.

Here's what the Canucks face as they aim for back-to-back Western Conference titles:

CONFERENCE FAVORITE: The Canucks can certainly be had, but by whom? Each of the top challengers have flaws that could prevent them from mounting a serious challenge and none of them have the kind of potent tandem Vancouver possesses in Henrik and Daniel Sedin. If Roberto Luongo continues his stellar play and the Sedins can cope with the absence of Kesler for the first few weeks of the season, Vancouver should be able to get off to a solid start and remain on top the rest of the way.

TAKE THE OVER: The Red Wings remained a formidable offensive unit last season, ranking second in the NHL in goals, but began to show cracks on the defensive end. Nicklas Lidstrom is entering his twilight and a shaky defense corps behind him is sure to make goaltender Jimmy Howard busy for the second year in a row. Expect plenty of high-scoring games when the Winged Wheel is in action.

TAKE THE UNDER: Things looked bleak for the Anaheim Ducks' (+1,189) defense in the early going last season. As the campaign wore on, the Ducks' beleaguered blueline improved dramatically, helping guide the club into the postseason. Expect fewer goals against, especially with a healthy Jonas Hiller in goal. Little has changed up front, but don't expect another 50-goal season from Corey Perry or an 80-point effort from 41-year-old Teemu Selanne.

MOST IMPROVED: The Kings believe it's their time and, with former Philadelphia Flyers star Mike Richards in the fold, they may finally be right. Following years of teasing fans with a talented but inconsistent lineup, Tinseltown has more depth in its forward lines than it has had in several years. The defense received a major boost with the signing of Drew Doughty to a long-term contract and Jonathan Quick proved he has the chops to be an elite NHL netminder. If the team can avoid the extended periods of lethargy that plagued it last season, it should find itself battling for a spot in the conference final.

TRENDING DOWN: The Calgary Flames (+1,703) used a sensational second-half run to nearly squeak into the postseason. It'll take a miracle for them to duplicate the feat. Following a failed bid to land prized free-agent center Brad Richards, the Flames have precious little down the middle. The first-line job will likely go to unproven Mikael Backlund, followed by a collection of rabble that includes Matt Stajan and Olli Jokinen. The defense lost a key piece in Robyn Regehr, and goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff will find himself pushed by young backup Henrik Karlsson from the get-go. It may be time to opt for a rebuild in Calgary.

SLEEPER TEAM: The only thing preventing the Minnesota Wild (+4,279) from joining the West elite last season was a startling lack of offense. The Wild recorded the second-fewest goals in the conference - a major reason why the team missed the playoffs for the third year in a row. Minnesota believes it has found a partial solution with the acquisition of Sharks forwards Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi. Heatley, as enigmatic a forward as you'll find, is reportedly motivated and in great shape. Playing alongside skilled veteran Mikko Koivu, the Wild now have a top line capable of leading them back to the postseason.

PICK TO WIN WEST: San Jose endured off-years from Heatley, Setoguchi and Joe Thornton in 2010-11 and still wound up with 108 points. If anyone can give Vancouver trouble, it'll be the Sharks.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:01 AM

NHL betting: Six teams that will defy your expectations

It seems just about every sports fan gets a kick out of predicting breakout teams before they breakout.

Of course, by the end of a long season, no one remembers who you picked as you anyway. Nevertheless, you can take some self-satisfaction from the exercise and maybe even a few dollars by making a futures wager on your sleeper.

With the NHL season starting Thursday, let’s use a little math involving goal differential in the form of the Pythagorean Theorem to find three teams that are good bets to move up the standings in 2011-12 and three teams that are ready to, shall we say, slip on the ice.

The margin between a team's goals for and goals against is often a good statistic to determine what a team's true record should have been in that season. If a team outperforms its expected record, it usually will win fewer games the following season and vice versa.

PRIMED FOR IMPROVEMENT

New York Islanders (30-39-7-6, 56-26 ATS)

The Islanders were biggest winners in the NHL against the puckline last season and they have the look of a team ready to win more games straight up this season after they underperformed their Pythagorean record by five victories in 2010-11.

Center John Tavares, left winger Matt Moulson and right winter Michael Graber give the Islanders plenty of offensive firepower and all are young enough to improve.

The Islanders also welcome back Mark Streit, a fine two-way defenseman, who was named captain at the start of training camp after missing last season while recovering from shoulder surgery.

Boston Bruins (46-25-5-6, 39-43 ATS)

Can you improve on winning the franchise's first Stanley Cup in 39 years? Perhaps by playing up to your full potential as the Bruins finished four wins short of their Pythagorean mark during the regular season in 2010-11 before turning it on in the postseason.

The skeptics believe the Bruins have no chance of repeating as champions because they lack a top point producer due to the retirement of concussion-plagued Marc Savard and only won last year because 36-year-old goaltender Tim Thomas stole the Cup with a brilliant playoff performance.

But the Baby Bears believe they can make up for Savard's scoring with a balanced attack, and they have Tuukka Rask waiting to take over in the nets should Thomas fail.

New York Rangers (44-33-2-3, 43-39 ATS)

Coach John Tortorella has longed for a true No. 1 center since taking over the Rangers and the need became more apparent than ever last season when his team underperformed its goal differential by four wins then lost in five games to the Washington Capitals in the first round of the playoffs. The Rangers got Torts his man by signing Brad Richards to a nine-year, $60 million contract as a free agent.

Tortorella and Richards teamed to win a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, though that was eight years ago. The Blueshirts hope the magic can happen again, particularly if Richards can boost an anemic power play and bring out the best in enigmatic right winger Marian Gaborik.

PRIMED FOR A FALL

Anaheim Ducks (47-30-3-2, 43-39 ATS)

The Ducks overachieved by five games last season as the statistics showed they should have been were a 42-win team. Of course, it helped to have the Hart Trophy winner in Ryan Perry.

However, there are reasons to believe the Ducks are set up for a fall, chief among that 41-year-old Teemu Selanne will have a hard time duplicating his 31-goal season of a year ago and 36-year-old Soku Koviu will be fortunate to score 15 goals again.
Goaltender Jonas Hillier is healthy after missing the latter part of last season with vertigo but it is a condition that often reoccurs.

Tampa Bay Lightning (46-25-5-6, 41-41 ATS)

Steven Stamkos lit the lamp 45 times last season, which is one of the reasons why the Lighting won 46 games in a year that the numbers said they should have had 42 victories. It is also helped that the Lightning converted 20.54 percent of their power plays.

While the Lightning should be a high-scoring team again after re-signing Stamkos, the defense is slow, making it vulnerable against good offensive teams. Goaltender Dwayne Roloson turns 74 next week. OK, it will actually be his 42nd birthday but the Lightning prepared by signing Mathieu Garon to be the backup and hold Rolo's walker.

New Jersey Devils (38-39-3-2, 29-53 ATS)

The Devils would seemingly figure to fall into the other category after finishing last season with 28 wins in their last 41 games and nearly sneaking into the playoffs after winning just 10 of their first 41. Don't let the fast finish fool you because the Devils won four more games than they should.

Pete DeBoer takes over as the coach in GM Lou Lamoriello's never-ending cycle of bench bosses following without a playoff berth while guiding Florida Panthers. Devil backers have to wonder will Ilya Kovalchuk tank it again this season and will 39-year-old goalie Martin Brodeur finally reach the end of the line?

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:03 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 6

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PHILADELPHIA (51-28-0-14, 116 pts.) at BOSTON (62-33-0-12, 136 pts.) - 10/6/2011, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-7 (+5.0 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 12-7-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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MONTREAL (47-31-0-11, 105 pts.) at TORONTO (37-34-0-11, 85 pts.) - 10/6/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 13-22 ATS (+38.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 27-50 ATS (-31.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-6 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-6-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (52-29-0-8, 112 pts.) at VANCOUVER (69-27-0-11, 149 pts.) - 10/6/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 18-10 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 1-1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:04 AM

NHL

Thursday, October 6

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. TORONTO
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal

7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. VANCOUVER
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,when playing on the road against Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Vancouver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:07 AM

NHL

Thursday, October 6

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What bettors need to know: Thursday's NHL opening night
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Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (-120, 5.5)

THE STORY: Two of hockey's most historic rivals meet to open the season Thursday when the Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Canadiens are looking to rebound from a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the eventual Stanley Cup-champion Boston Bruins last season, while the Maple Leafs hope to reach the postseason for the first time since before the 2004-05 work stoppage. The goaltending matchup will likely be the most intriguing one of the night, with emerging star Carey Price guarding the Montreal net against Toronto's James Reimer. Price played in a club-record 72 games last season but will likely see a diminished workload this year with the acquisition of backup Peter Budaj. Reimer will face immense scrutiny as the Leafs' unquestioned top guy after a sensational rookie campaign.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Head coach Jacques Martin believes the Canadiens are an improved bunch over the club that placed sixth in the Eastern Conference and nearly knocked off the Bruins in the opening round. He may wind up being correct, but only if Montreal can find a way to score more goals. A full season of F Mike Cammalleri and the acquisition of F Erik Cole over the summer will aid in that regard, but youngsters like Lars Eller and Max Pacioretty will need to be stronger if Montreal hopes to improve on its 23rd-ranked offense.

ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS: More roster shuffling has Toronto confident it can end a postseason drought that has now reached six seasons. The arrival of talented but injury-prone center Tim Connolly should help, while Nikolai Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski are expected to shine in the final years of their respective contracts. Other minor moves (David Steckel, Cody Franson, Matthew Lombardi) should give Toronto the depth it has been lacking in recent seasons.

OVERTIME:

1. Montreal allowed 29 preseason goals, tied with Florida for the most in the league.

2. Toronto's 22 goals in the exhibition campaign was the most in the Eastern Conference.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Toronto.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

PREDICTION: Montreal 3, Toronto 2. These two teams always play tight, entertaining games and Thursday's should be no exception. With referees usually calling more penalties early in the season, the Canadiens' historically strong power-play should make the difference in this one.

Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins (-140, 5.5)

THE STORY: It's funny how the NHL season works sometimes. During Thursday's season opener, the host Boston Bruins will hoist their Stanley Cup banner in full view of the Philadelphia Flyers - the team which unceremoniously handed them a historic postseason collapse in 2010 only to be swept aside in the conference semifinals in 2011. In doing so, the Beantown residents skated to their first Stanley Cup title since 1972. Boston has done its fair share of reveling after besting the Vancouver Canucks in June, while Philadelphia has cast aside a couple of proven veterans while finally addressing its goaltending situation. Ilya Bryzgalov will now be between the pipes for Philadelphia, while reigning Vezina and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Tim Thomas will man his usual post for Boston. Bruins coach Claude Julien isn't resting on his laurels, however. "The start of this season is a whole new season. It's been a great summer, but now it's time to turn the page and get back to work. What we accomplished last year really doesn't matter this year."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Versus

ABOUT THE FLYERS: After last year's woe-begotten performance between the pipes, Philadelphia signed free-agent Bryzgalov to a nine-year, $51 million deal. That was not the only move for the new-look Flyers, who jettisoned former captain Mike Richards to Los Angeles and talented wing Jeff Carter to Columbus. Former league MVP Jaromir Jagr, 39, has fared well in the preseason, but he'll need to prove his worth over the long haul after playing in the Kontinental Hockey League for the past three campaigns.

ABOUT THE BRUINS: While Boston will celebrate the not-too-recent past on Thursday, several faces will be missing. Future Hall of Famer Mark Recchi retired, Michael Ryder is now in Dallas and Marc Savard will not play this season after suffering his second concussion. The Bruins rewarded pesky Brad Marchand for his solid postseason by inking him to a two-year deal this summer. The main core is intact, however, and another run at the Northeast Division title - among loftier goals - is not out of the realm of possibility in 2011-12.

OVERTIME:

1. With the departures of proven studs, the Flyers are expecting James van Riemsdyk to pick up the slack on the scoreboard. The second overall pick of the 2007 draft, van Riemsdyk was signed to a six-year extension worth $25.5 million in the offseason.

2. Although Thomas was the signature face of the Bruins' triumph last summer, he is expected to share netminding duties with Tuukka Rask this year. Then again, the same was said last year ... and we all saw how that panned out.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.
* Flyers are 0-6 in the last six meetings.

PREDICTION: Bruins 4, Flyers 1. With TD Garden whipped into a frenzy, Julien's charges won't suffer any Stanley Cup hangover - well, at least not on the first day. Boston's top line of Milan Lucic, David Krejci and Nathan Horton will fluster the Flyers en route to a convincing victory.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks (-160, 5.5)

THE STORY: While publications and video games are predicting a Stanley Cup championship for the Pittsburgh Penguins this season, a title will only come to the Steel City if superstar Sidney Crosby is able to return to the lineup and regain his superior form. The captain will begin 2011-12 on injured reserve as Pittsburgh begins the campaign on the road Thursday against the reigning Western Conference champion Vancouver Canucks. Sports Illustrated picked the Penguins to win it all this season and EA Sports' "NHL 12" video game had Pittsburgh sweeping Chicago in the Finals during a simulation. But the Pens' real-life hopes are pinned on the health of Crosby, who has been out since Jan. 5 with a concussion. The Canucks had a brilliant 2010-11 campaign, winning the Presidents' Trophy and boasting the Art Ross Trophy winner for a second straight season, but came up one win short of their first Cup as they fell to Boston.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Versus, CBC

ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Crosby is symptom-free and traveling with the team on its season-opening road trip through Western Canada, but the 24-year old has not yet been cleared for contact in practice. Evgeni Malkin is more than ready, however, as he registered three goals and seven points in four preseason games after having his 2010-11 campaign end in early February with a knee injury.

ABOUT THE CANUCKS: Ryan Kesler has made waves by posing nude for ESPN Magazine, but the club is more interested in his return to the ice. The Selke Trophy winner begins the season on the sidelines following offseason hip surgery. Twins Henrik and Daniel Sedin, who have claimed the last two regular-season scoring titles, will be counted on early with Kesler and Mason Raymond (fractured vertebrae) on the shelf.

OVERTIME:

1. The Penguins boast what arguably is the best trio of centers in the league in Crosby, Malkin and Jordan Staal. However, the threesome has been together in the lineup only seven times over Pittsburgh's last 96 games, including the playoffs, and just twice last season.

2. After leading the NHL with 262 goals in 2010-11, Vancouver scored only 17 times in eight preseason contests.

TRENDS:

- Pittsburgh is 2-7 in the last nine meetings between the two teams.
- The under is 18-6-2 in Vancouver's last 26 home games.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 5, Vancouver 3. Even without Crosby, the Penguins have enough firepower to make Roberto Luongo miserable. The absences of Kesler and Raymond will limit Vancouver's ability to generate scoring chances against Marc-Andre Fleury.

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:12 AM

Guys,

I forgot to add NHL to the header. Here's the matchup links. They'll be in the daily header starting tomorrow.

NHL Matchups

NHL Injuries

NHL Hot and Not

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:17 AM

NHL

Thursday, October 6

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Ice picks: Thursday’s best NHL bets
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Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (-120, 5.5)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to start strong this season after putting together a strong stretch in the second half last season, just missing out on the postseason.

However, the Leafs are still a young team with a lot of question marks. James Reimer grabbed the No. 1 goaltending job out of nowhere last season but it remains to be seen if he can carry the load for the full season. The club’s defense looks deep, but the team’s still looking for help up front.

They picked up veteran center David Steckel from the Devils this week and he’ll help in the faceoff circle on the third or fourth line, though he isn’t the big fish they’re out for.

Meanwhile, everything’s looking up in Montreal. Goaltender Carey Price and defenseman P.K. Subban are coming off breakthrough years and Max Pacioretty has made a full recovery from his scary neck injury. The Habs also added a little forward depth by signing Erik Cole.

These big Canadiens-Leafs games are always tough to call, but at this price you’d be crazy not to jump on Montreal.

Pick: Canadiens

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks (-155, 5.5)

Even though Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby is traveling with the Penguins, he isn’t expected to play on his club’s opening road trip. However, word has it he will be cleared for contact soon as he comes back from his concussion.

The good news is that everybody expects Evgeni Malkin to bounce back this season after changing his training routine in the offseason. That’s certainly possible, but let’s wait a week or two before handing the guy the Hart Trophy.

You have to wonder how the Canucks will get out of the gate following last spring’s heartbreaking Game 7 loss to the Bruins in the finals. Roberto Luongo is a notoriously slow starter as it is and Ryan Kesler will be on the shelf for a while.

“People think that because you have a short summer you’re not going to come prepared but I don’t believe in it,” Mikael Samuelsson told reporters. “It’s like a built-in excuse if things don’t go your way, but we have to find our way.”

That might take longer than they hope.

Pick: Penguins

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:19 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 6

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DETROIT (97 - 69) at NY YANKEES (99 - 67) - 8:35 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. IVAN NOVA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 4-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
FISTER is 20-35 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FISTER is 13-27 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FISTER is 13-28 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 99-67 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
NY YANKEES are 92-56 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 98-70 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 47-37 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 92-68 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 66-48 (+12.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 42-27 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 44-31 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 22-11 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 30-34 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 55-54 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+2.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IVAN NOVA vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:23 AM

MLB

Thursday, October 6

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-165, 9)

Of course it was going to be Curtis Granderson to stymie Detroit just as his former club looked ready to rip the struggling A.J. Burnett apart.

Granderson made two sparkling catches in center field and picked up his fourth hit of the series in New York’s 10-1 blowout win. Things could have been a lot different if Granderson didn’t end the first inning by making a leaping grab on Don Kelly’s liner after Burnett had walked the bases loaded.

"Sometimes you pick a key out in the game and I think the key in the game happened in the very first inning when Donnie Kelly smoked that ball," Detroit manager Jim Leyland told reporters. "If it would have gotten over [Granderson's] head and he had fallen down, it might have been an inside-the-park home run."

Instead, Burnett returned to the dugout to settle down and the Yankees fed off the play and jumped out to a 4-1 lead after five innings. Now they head home with all the momentum and that play that Granderson made in the first inning may end up being the play that turned the tide in this series.

We like the Yankees to close out the series on Thursday, but there isn’t a ton of value in that wager. Instead, we’ll hit up the under; both Ivan Nova and Doug Fister have been collecting zeros all over the place lately and expect to see some big guns come out of both bullpens.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 12:25 AM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 10-06-2011, 10:07 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Pittsburgh at Vancouver
The Canucks look to open the season and build on their 7-2 record in the last 9 meetings between the two teams in Vancouver. Vancouver is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Boston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.865; Boston 12.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 3-4: Montreal at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.330; Toronto 10.923
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+105); Over

Game 5-6: Pittsburgh at Vancouver (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.659; Vancouver 12.721
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-160); Over

Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/6 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/6 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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