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SEC Showdowns
October 7, 2011
When you’re a true freshman quarterback, you aren’t supposed to get thrown to the wolves like this. In my opinion, Alabama has the nation’s premier defense and LSU has the second-best stop unit.
In the first six quarters of meaningful playing time in Jeff Driskel’s career, this is what he must face. When Florida senior quarterback John Brantley suffered a severe ankle sprain late in the second quarter vs. Alabama last week, Driskel was suddenly thrust under center for the Gators in the third and fourth quarters.
The results weren’t pretty, as Alabama shut down UF in the second half en route to a 38-10 win as a four-point road favorite.
Things looked good for Will Muschamp’s team in the early going. On the second play from scrimmage, sophomore wide receiver Andre DeBose got separation from ‘Bama lockdown cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and Brantley hit him perfectly in stride for a 65-yard scoring strike.
After Alabama answered with a field goal, UF promptly marched into the red zone and nearly got into the end zone on three straight plays. On first and goal, Brantley hit Chris Rainey all alone along the sideline, but Rainey was unable to keep his balance and his momentum took him out of bounds at the five.
Brantley threw a TD pass on the next play, but the score was correctly reversed after a replay review. Then a third-and-goal pass should’ve been caught, but the Gators had to settle for a field goal and a 10-3 lead.
With the score tied at 10-10 early in the second quarter, Brantley made his only mistake of the night and pair for it dearly. Courtney Upshaw intercepted Brantley’s short pass and returned it 45 yards for a touchdown.
The Crimson Tide would tack on another score for a 24-10 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the second quarter. UF then moved into ‘Bama territory but on a third-down play, Brantley was sacked and suffered the high ankle sprain that’ll likely keep him on the sidelines for 3-4 weeks.
Caleb Sturgis’s 53-yard field-goal attempt on the final play of the half was long enough but wide. And, as previously mentioned, it was all Alabama in final 30 minutes.
Now Driskel will make his first career start on the road at one of the country’s most difficult venues. But the Gators have had plenty of success at Tiger Stadium, especially for our purposes.
In fact, Florida (4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) has taken the cash in six straight games at LSU, winning outright four times. The Gators are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) favored by 13 ½ with a total of 42. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a lucrative plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).
Since 2001, Florida has been a double-digit underdog just twice. The Gators have covered the spread in both instances. The last double-digit ‘dog spot came at LSU in 2003 when Keiwan Ratliff’s interceptions led UF to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champions.
LSU has been No. 2 in my power rankings from the get-go and it has been the country’s most impressive team to date thanks to the quality of its five wins over Oregon (40-27), Northwestern St. (49-3), Mississippi St. (19-6), West Va. (47-21) and Kentucky (35-7).
Les Miles’ team has an outstanding power running game, dangerous weapons at the WR position and a play-making defense that creates turnovers galore. Jarrett Lee has been solid at QB since taking over for Jordan Jefferson, who was suspended for the first four games of the year.
Lee has a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has played like a veteran in three big wins on the road (Oregon was actually a neutral at Cowboys Stadium, but you get the point.). This is why I believe Miles needs to be extremely careful about the way he incorporates Jefferson into the offense.
In other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LSU is in cruise control and the last thing it needs is controversy in the locker room. Jefferson screwed up to lose his job and Lee has taken advantage. Nevertheless, Miles seem intent on getting Jefferson snaps in short-yardage situations to utilize his speed, but this could be a slippery slope that could lead to team turmoil.
LSU has not fared well as a home favorite during Miles’ seven-year tenure, posting an abysmal 13-25-1 spread record. In the Tigers’ last 15 games as double-digit home ‘chalk,’ they are an atrocious 3-11-1 ATS.
CBS will have television coverage of UF-LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
In a huge SEC East showdown at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee (3-1 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) will take on Georgia in Knoxville. With South Carolina and Florida losing last week, the UGA-UT winner will have an excellent chance of winning the division.
Most books are listing Georgia (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a two-point favorite with the total in the 55-56 range. The Dawgs have won three in a row both SU and ATS since losing their first two games. They thumped Mississippi St. by a 24-10 count as seven-point home favorites last week.
Isaiah Crowell rushed for 104 yards and Aaron Murray threw a pair of touchdown passes. However, Murray was intercepted three times. He has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio for the year.
Mark Richt’s team is 2-1 in SEC play, losing to South Carolina and winning at Ole Miss prior to the victory over MSU. Crowell has rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Tennessee is coming off a 41-10 win over Buffalo as a 28 ½-point home favorite. Tyler Bray threw for 342 and four TDs without being intercepted. For the season, Bray now has 14 TD passes compared to only two picks.
Georgia has been a road favorite 28 times under Richt, compiling a 16-11-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Vols are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2001. They are 0-3 versus the number in three such spots on Dooley’s watch.
UGA spanked UT by a 41-14 count as an 11-point home ‘chalk’ last season. But in its last two trips to Knoxville, Georgia has taken woodshed treatment. The Vols won by a 45-19 count in 2009 and a 35-14 score in ’07.
Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run in UT’s last 11 home games.
--South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier will give Connor Shaw his second career start Saturday vs. Kentucky. Shaw started the season opener but was relieved by Stephen Garcia when the Gamecocks quickly fell behind 17-0 to East Carolina. Garcia has been intercepted six times in the last two games against Vandy and Auburn. South Carolina is favored by 21 vs. UK.
--Miami DT Marcus Fortson is done for the season.
--Ohio State is a double-digit underdog Saturday at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have only been double-digit ‘dogs once since 2003. That occasion came in 2008 when Southern Cal stroked OSU 35-3 as a 12-point home favorite.
--Coaching Hot Seats:
1-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
2-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
3-Neil Callaway (UAB)
4-Mike Riley (Oregon State)
5-Mark Richt (Georgia)
October 7, 2011
When you’re a true freshman quarterback, you aren’t supposed to get thrown to the wolves like this. In my opinion, Alabama has the nation’s premier defense and LSU has the second-best stop unit.
In the first six quarters of meaningful playing time in Jeff Driskel’s career, this is what he must face. When Florida senior quarterback John Brantley suffered a severe ankle sprain late in the second quarter vs. Alabama last week, Driskel was suddenly thrust under center for the Gators in the third and fourth quarters.
The results weren’t pretty, as Alabama shut down UF in the second half en route to a 38-10 win as a four-point road favorite.
Things looked good for Will Muschamp’s team in the early going. On the second play from scrimmage, sophomore wide receiver Andre DeBose got separation from ‘Bama lockdown cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and Brantley hit him perfectly in stride for a 65-yard scoring strike.
After Alabama answered with a field goal, UF promptly marched into the red zone and nearly got into the end zone on three straight plays. On first and goal, Brantley hit Chris Rainey all alone along the sideline, but Rainey was unable to keep his balance and his momentum took him out of bounds at the five.
Brantley threw a TD pass on the next play, but the score was correctly reversed after a replay review. Then a third-and-goal pass should’ve been caught, but the Gators had to settle for a field goal and a 10-3 lead.
With the score tied at 10-10 early in the second quarter, Brantley made his only mistake of the night and pair for it dearly. Courtney Upshaw intercepted Brantley’s short pass and returned it 45 yards for a touchdown.
The Crimson Tide would tack on another score for a 24-10 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the second quarter. UF then moved into ‘Bama territory but on a third-down play, Brantley was sacked and suffered the high ankle sprain that’ll likely keep him on the sidelines for 3-4 weeks.
Caleb Sturgis’s 53-yard field-goal attempt on the final play of the half was long enough but wide. And, as previously mentioned, it was all Alabama in final 30 minutes.
Now Driskel will make his first career start on the road at one of the country’s most difficult venues. But the Gators have had plenty of success at Tiger Stadium, especially for our purposes.
In fact, Florida (4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) has taken the cash in six straight games at LSU, winning outright four times. The Gators are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) favored by 13 ½ with a total of 42. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a lucrative plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).
Since 2001, Florida has been a double-digit underdog just twice. The Gators have covered the spread in both instances. The last double-digit ‘dog spot came at LSU in 2003 when Keiwan Ratliff’s interceptions led UF to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champions.
LSU has been No. 2 in my power rankings from the get-go and it has been the country’s most impressive team to date thanks to the quality of its five wins over Oregon (40-27), Northwestern St. (49-3), Mississippi St. (19-6), West Va. (47-21) and Kentucky (35-7).
Les Miles’ team has an outstanding power running game, dangerous weapons at the WR position and a play-making defense that creates turnovers galore. Jarrett Lee has been solid at QB since taking over for Jordan Jefferson, who was suspended for the first four games of the year.
Lee has a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has played like a veteran in three big wins on the road (Oregon was actually a neutral at Cowboys Stadium, but you get the point.). This is why I believe Miles needs to be extremely careful about the way he incorporates Jefferson into the offense.
In other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LSU is in cruise control and the last thing it needs is controversy in the locker room. Jefferson screwed up to lose his job and Lee has taken advantage. Nevertheless, Miles seem intent on getting Jefferson snaps in short-yardage situations to utilize his speed, but this could be a slippery slope that could lead to team turmoil.
LSU has not fared well as a home favorite during Miles’ seven-year tenure, posting an abysmal 13-25-1 spread record. In the Tigers’ last 15 games as double-digit home ‘chalk,’ they are an atrocious 3-11-1 ATS.
CBS will have television coverage of UF-LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
In a huge SEC East showdown at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee (3-1 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) will take on Georgia in Knoxville. With South Carolina and Florida losing last week, the UGA-UT winner will have an excellent chance of winning the division.
Most books are listing Georgia (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a two-point favorite with the total in the 55-56 range. The Dawgs have won three in a row both SU and ATS since losing their first two games. They thumped Mississippi St. by a 24-10 count as seven-point home favorites last week.
Isaiah Crowell rushed for 104 yards and Aaron Murray threw a pair of touchdown passes. However, Murray was intercepted three times. He has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio for the year.
Mark Richt’s team is 2-1 in SEC play, losing to South Carolina and winning at Ole Miss prior to the victory over MSU. Crowell has rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Tennessee is coming off a 41-10 win over Buffalo as a 28 ½-point home favorite. Tyler Bray threw for 342 and four TDs without being intercepted. For the season, Bray now has 14 TD passes compared to only two picks.
Georgia has been a road favorite 28 times under Richt, compiling a 16-11-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Vols are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2001. They are 0-3 versus the number in three such spots on Dooley’s watch.
UGA spanked UT by a 41-14 count as an 11-point home ‘chalk’ last season. But in its last two trips to Knoxville, Georgia has taken woodshed treatment. The Vols won by a 45-19 count in 2009 and a 35-14 score in ’07.
Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run in UT’s last 11 home games.
--South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier will give Connor Shaw his second career start Saturday vs. Kentucky. Shaw started the season opener but was relieved by Stephen Garcia when the Gamecocks quickly fell behind 17-0 to East Carolina. Garcia has been intercepted six times in the last two games against Vandy and Auburn. South Carolina is favored by 21 vs. UK.
--Miami DT Marcus Fortson is done for the season.
--Ohio State is a double-digit underdog Saturday at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have only been double-digit ‘dogs once since 2003. That occasion came in 2008 when Southern Cal stroked OSU 35-3 as a 12-point home favorite.
--Coaching Hot Seats:
1-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
2-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
3-Neil Callaway (UAB)
4-Mike Riley (Oregon State)
5-Mark Richt (Georgia)
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