The Bum's CFB Week # 6 Best Bets 10/6-10/8 !

[StarDust Bum]

Pac 12 Notebook

October 6, 2011

Week Five Rewind

The Pac 12 again had a majority of disappointing games with lopsided outcomes and misleading finals.

The game of the day took place in Colorado as Washington State came from behind to defeat the Buffaloes 31-27. The Cougars led the game early but Colorado started to take control of the game and took a 10-point lead with 5:11 left. Washington St. then made it a three-point game with 2:35 left, forced a punt and scored five plays later for the win.

USC won by a touchdown over Arizona but the game was not as close as that score shows. The Trojans jumped ahead 17-0 and the Wildcats could not keep up and was not able to close the deficit by less than a touchdown. Arizona was only outgained 582-554 but two of its first three possessions resulted in interceptions.

Washington was the other Pac 12 road winner this weekend as it had a surprisingly easy time with Utah. The Huskies easily covered as double-digit underdogs as they jumped ahead 31-7 before the Utes scored their second touchdown in garbage time with seven seconds left. The Huskies won the yardage battle 411-322.

Oregon State jumped ahead 13-0 over the Sun Devils as all of those points were results of three Arizona State turnovers. The Sun Devils eventually built an eight-point lead but the Beavers hung around until Arizona St. scored the final two touchdowns of the game. Oregon St. won the yardage battle 388-367 but five turnovers and 13 penalties did them in.

Stanford continues to bury the completion as the Cardinals jumped ahead of UCLA 17-0 and never looked back. They outgained the Bruins 442-343 and balance was the key as the Cardinal rushed for 202 yards and passed for 240 yards. Stanford has won all four games by at least 26 points and is a perfect 4-0 against the number.

Hot Seat?

Another week, another huge loss for UCLA. The Bruins have alternated losses and wins this season and head back home to try and keep that trend going with a win over Washington St. The Cougars have been the pleasant surprise of the Pac 12, going 3-1 including a 1-0 record in the conference following that big win at Colorado.

A loss against Washington St. could mean the beginning of the end for head coach Rick Neuheisel who came into the season on the hot seat and it is only getting hotter. No one is happy with the lack of a turnaround that he promised when coming to his alma meter four years ago.

Neuheisel said the UCLA program is "not far away." It's too bad he may not be around to see it.

Washington St. head coach Paul Wulff came into the season with a similar bit of pressure. He brought in a 5-32 record through his first three years but he has already surpassed his win total in any of those first three seasons so he is looking fine to stick around for at least another year.

The problem is that the Cougars play in the same division as Oregon and Stanford so getting out of the Pac 12 North will be a challenge.

Defensive Lack of Ability

Last week we talked about how good the conferences quarterbacks have been and that is directly related to how the defenses have played. We saw another week of high scoring games with the total going 3-2 to the over with the Cougars-Buffaloes falling under by just two points.

The defenses have been sieves this season, with only Stanford and California ranked in the top 30 in the nation in total defense and just five teams ranked in the top 50. The scoring defenses are even worse as Stanford is in the top ten but nine teams are outside the top 50 with UCLA and Arizona ranked 105th and 114th respectively.

The linesmakers will be making big adjustments if this continues and we may be able to find value in the other direction.

The over is now a profitable 20-14 on the season.

Game of the Week

California at Oregon on Thursday night. This is the lone game that has two teams squaring off with greater than .500 records, the second straight week there has been only one such game. Both the Bears and Ducks come in with 3-1 records although California is 0-1 in the Pac 12 after losing its last game at Washington.

Oregon is 1-0 in the conference following its win at Arizona in its Pac 12 opener. The Ducks won last year's meeting in Berkeley 15-13 in a defensive battle despite outgaining the Bears 320-193.

Oregon was favored by 18.5 points then and it is favored by 23.5 points at home this season. California has taken four of the last five meetings against the number while all four of the previous meetings have stayed under the posted total.

[StarDust Bum]

Boise St. at Fresno St.

October 6, 2011

This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to Fresno, where the home team is a decided underdog against former WAC rival and future Mountain West counterpart, Boise State. As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops were listing the Broncos as 21-point favorites with the total in the 58-59 range.

Fresno State (2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) is available on the money line for a lucrative return. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Bulldogs with 10/1 odds to win outright as of early Thursday (risk $100 to win $1,000).

Boise State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has cruised to four easy wins over Georgia (35-21), Toledo (40-15), Tulsa (41-21) and Nevada (30-10). However, the Broncos have failed to cover the number in their last two outings because their back-ups have allowed backdoor covers in the fourth quarter.

Chris Petersen’s team avenged last year’s heartbreaking loss at Nevada this past Saturday, racing out to a 30-0 lead before the Wolf Pack got garbage points to hook up its backers as a 27 ½-point underdog. Doug Martin rushed for 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while the BSU defense limited Nevada to only 182 yards of total offense.

BSU has been known for its dynamic offense through the years, but it now has a defense that’s starting to steal the show. This unit has given up just 16 first-half points in the first four games (seven to UGA, nine to Toledo).

The offense hasn’t taken a step back, though. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore is on the cusp of breaking NCAA records galore. Moore has completed 73.9 percent of his passes for 1,137 yards with a 14/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

Fresno St. dropped its first two games at California (36-21) and at Nebraska, taking the cash in Lincoln as a 27 ½-point underdog in a 42-29 loss that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Bulldogs bounced back with a pair of wins over North Dakota (27-22) and Idaho (48-24) before hosting Ole Miss last week.

The Rebels captured a 38-28 win at FSU as three-point underdogs, scoring the last 11 points in the final stanza.

Pat Hill’s team is led by junior RB Robbie Rouse, who has rushed for 600 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Derek Carr, the younger brother of former Fresno QB David Carr, has thrown for 1,291 yards with a 10/4 TD-INT ratio.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 for Fresno St. this year, but we should note that Friday’s total is the highest it has seen. The previous high was last week’s 55 vs. Ole Miss.

As for BSU, it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 this year with the lone ‘over’ coming in the win over Georgia. Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ is on an 8-1-1 run for the Broncos.

Boise St. owns a 9-1 record both SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the Bulldogs, who got spanked by a 51-0 count on the smurf turf last season. The Broncos have scored 51 points or more in the last three meetings.

As a home underdog since 2001, Fresno St. is 6-7 ATS. Meanwhile, BSU has compiled a 17-10 spread record in 27 games as a road favorite during Petersen’s six-year tenure. Since 2008, the Broncos are 14-4 ATS as road ‘chalk.’

Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Boise State’s offensive line is dealing with a few injuries. Jake Broyles, the starting sophomore guard, is ‘out’ for the season with a toe injury. Also, starting center Thomas Byrd is ‘doubtful’ with a knee injury that kept him out of last week’s win over Nevada.

--Most spots have Illinois favored by 14 at Indiana in its first road game of the season. The unbeaten Illini has failed to cover the spread in four straight games as a road favorite. It is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road ‘chalk’ during Ron Zook’s seven-year tenure. Illinois will be without sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown (suspension).

--Indiana has covered the number in five consecutive games as a home underdog.

--Boston College star RB Montel Harris has been downgraded to ‘out’ Saturday at Clemson with a knee injury. The Eagles were 21-point ‘dogs as of early Thursday afternoon.

--South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Kentucky. Ingram, who has scored three touchdowns this year, injured his foot in last week’s 16-13 home loss to Auburn. He did not practice on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.

--The ‘over’ is 5-0 for both TCU and Ga. Tech.

--Florida has covered the number in six straight games at LSU. The last non-cover was in 1997 when Herb Tyler and Kevin Faulk led Gerry DiNardo’s team to a 28-21 win over the top-ranked Gators on a night when Steve Spurrier stubbornly didn’t give Fred Taylor enough touches. The last time UF was a double-digit underdog at LSU, Keiwan Ratliff had three interceptions to lead the Gators to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champs led by Nick Saban.

--With senior QB John Brantley out with a high ankle sprain that’ll probably keep him out until the Georgia game on Oct. 29, true freshman QB Jeff Driskel will get his first career start under center.

--Auburn WR Emory Blake, who has 19 receptions and four TD catches, is ‘out’ Saturday at Arkansas along with fellow WR Trovon Reed. The Razorbacks, who are favored by 10 at most spots, are hurting on the defensive line. They expect to get senior DE Jake Bequette back this week after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. However, DT Tenarius Wright (arm) is ‘out’ and DT Robert Thomas is ‘doubtful.’

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 55-*45-*2 55.00% +2750

Thursday, October 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Western Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee State -10.5 500

Middle Tennessee State - Over 53.5 500

California - 9:00 PM ET California +23.5 500

Oregon - Under 65 500

[shoeman530]

Good luck this week bum

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio State Travels To Face Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-2) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) will face off as Big Ten Conference rivals for the first time Saturday night at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff from Lincoln, NE, is scheduled for 8:00 (ET) and the game will be nationally televised on ABC.

Nebraska enters Week 6 of the college football season as the No. 23 team in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, while the betting odds have placed the former Big 12 school as 11-point home favorites. The total has fallen two points to its current position of 44.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back from losses suffered last week, as Ohio State was handed a 10-7 defeat by the Michigan State Spartans as 3-point home favorites while Nebraska suffered a 48-17 blowout loss at the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers as 9 ½-point road underdogs.

Ohio State has won both previous meetings in this series and will be making its first trip to Lincoln. The Buckeyes have registered an impressive 61-32-5 record in conference road openers since joining the Big Ten in 1913.

Many around the program were expecting the return of running back Dan Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey from five-game suspensions that were handed down during the offseason, but those have been extended at least one more game. That’s bad news for an offense that has scored just 13 combined points in losses to Miami-FL and Michigan State.

The stop unit will need to be at its best in order to pull off the upset, ranking third in the conference against the run and fourth in total defense.

Bettors will find that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS as an underdog the last two-plus seasons and all of those games went under the total.

Nebraska will play its first-ever home game as a member of the conference, making the move from the Big 12 during the offseason. Saturday’s game will be the fifth game in school history involving two teams with 800 all-time victories.

Not a lot of things went right in Madison last week, including the offense committing three turnovers that Wisconsin turned into 21 points. The team also had a season-high nine penalties for 80 yards, entering the contest averaging just 4.5 flags a contest.

Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez will need to play well or the squad will fall to 0-4 ATS on the year as a double-digit home favorite. He threw three interceptions last week and has completed just 50.5 percent of his passes through five games.

Strangely enough, Nebraska scheduled its 101st Homecoming Game for this week, boasting a 74-22-4 record, including a 67-16-3 mark when playing against conference foes.

It’s definitely strange line movement in this marquee matchup due to the Cornhuskers being 1-10-1 ATS when laying 10 ½-points or more at home.

Total bettors will find that the ‘under’ is 14-6 in the last 20 games inside this venue.

Weather forecasts are calling for game-time temperatures in the mid-60s and a 60 percent chance of rain showers throughout the game.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Picks For Saturday October 8

Here’s the lineup (All Times Eastern):

307 Oklahoma vs 308 Texas – 12:00 p.m.

309 Illinois vs 310 Indiana – 2:30 p.m.

311 Vanderbilt vs 312 Alabama – 7:00 p.m.

313 Boston College vs 314 Clemson – 3:00 p.m.

315 Connecticut vs 316 West Virginia – 12:00 p.m.

317 Mississippi State vs 318 UAB – 12:00 p.m.

319 Iowa vs 320 Penn State – 3:30 p.m.

321 Pittsburgh U vs 322 Rutgers – 3:30 p.m.

323 Minnesota U vs 324 Purdue – 12:00 p.m.

325 Louisville vs 326 North Carolina – 12:00 p.m.

327 Central Michigan vs 328 NC State – 3:30 p.m.

329 Memphis vs 330 Rice – 12:30 p.m.

331 Army vs 332 Miami Ohio – 1:00 p.m.

333 Bowling Green vs 334 Western Michigan – 2:00 p.m.

335 Temple vs 336 Ball State – 2:00 p.m.

337 Arizona State vs 338 Utah – 3:30 p.m.

339 San Jose State vs 340 BYU – 10:15 p.m.

341 Eastern Michigan vs 342 Toledo – 3:00 p.m.

343 Ohio vs 344 Buffalo U – 3:30 p.m.

345 Kent State vs 346 No Illinois – 3:30 p.m.

347 Auburn vs 348 Arkansas – 7:00 p.m.

349 Maryland vs 350 Georgia Tech – 12:00 p.m.

351 Colorado vs 352 Standford – 7:30 p.m.

353 Georgia vs 354 Tennessee U – 7:00 p.m.

355 Miami Florida vs 356 Virginia Tech – 3:30 p.m.

357 Air Force vs 358 Notre Dame – 3:30 p.m.

359 Southern Miss vs 360 Navy – 3:30 p.m.

361 UNLV vs 362 Nevada – 7:00 p.m.

363 Marshall vs 364 Central Florida – 7:00 p.m.

365 Louisiana Tech vs 366 Idaho – 5:00 p.m.

367 Arizona U vs 368 Oregon State – 3:30 p.m.

369 Kansas vs 370 Oklahoma State – 3:30 p.m.

371 Michigan vs 372 Northwestern – 7:00 p.m.

373 East Carolina vs Houston U – 7:00 p.m.

375 Iowa State vs 376 Baylor – 7:00 p.m.

377 Kentucky vs 378 South Carolina – 12:20 p.m.

379 Florida State vs 380 Wake Forest – 12:30 p.m.

381 Texas A&M vs 382 Texas Tech – 7:00 p.m.

383 Missouri vs 384 Kansas State – 3:30 p.m.

385 Syracuse vs 386 Tulane – 8:00 p.m.

387 Wyoming vs 388 Utah State – 8:00 p.m.

389 Florida vs 390 LSU – 3:30 p.m.

391 Ohio State vs 392 Nebraska – 8:00 p.m.

393 Washington State vs 394 UCLA – 10:30 p.m.

395 TCU vs 396 San Diego State – 10:30 p.m.

397 Florida INTL vs 398 Akron – 2:00 p.m.

399 Troy vs 400 UL Lafayette – 7:00 p.m.

401 Arkansas State vs 402 UL Monroe – 7:00 p.m.

403 Florida Atlantic vs North Texas – 7:30 p.m.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/06/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/01/11 55-*45-*2 55.00% +*2750 Detail
Totals 57-*47-*2 54.81% +2650

Friday, October 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boise State - 9:00 PM ET Fresno State +20.5 500

Fresno State - Under 58 500

[StarDust Bum]

No. 14 Nebraska favored big over Ohio St

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (3-2)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (4-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -11, Total: 44

Ohio State will still be short-handed when it visits No. 14 Nebraska on Saturday.

The Buckeyes were supposed to finally have the services of all four players suspended for receiving improper benefits, but two of those players (RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey) will not be reinstated until at least next week. Even with this star offensive pair unable to go, this point spread is way too high. Nebraska was absolutely pounded in Wisconsin, getting outscored 35-3 in the last 32 minutes of the game. The Huskers still can’t throw the football (168 YPG, 104th in FBS) and OSU’s run defense has held four of five opponents to less than 80 yards. The sputtering Buckeyes offense should find some daylight against a Huskers team ranked 64th in total defense (377 YPG). Historically, they are a great road play, going 16-7 ATS (70%) on the road since 2007. The pick here is OHIO STATE to cover.

This rare five-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the visiting Buckeyes:

OHIO ST is 14-1 ATS (93.3%, +12.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 34.9, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 5*).

OSU’s offense was also atrocious last week against Michigan State with 178 total yards and 0.9 yards per carry (39 rushes, 35 yards) in a 10-7 loss. The yards were the fewest in a regular-season game since 2004 and the team’s only points came with 10 seconds left in the game. Adding injury to insult, starting WR Verlon Reed suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss to the Spartans. The quarterback situation at Ohio State continues to be unsettled. Freshman Braxton Miller started last game, but went 5-of-10 for 56 yards and an interception before getting replaced by Joe Bauserman, who finished 7-for-14 for 87 yards and a touchdown. Bauserman is likely to get the start on Saturday having thrown zero picks and five touchdowns this year (Miller has 3 TD and 2 INT). For the Buckeyes to hang around with the Huskers, they will need to continue their positive turnover margin (+4). OSU has seven takeaways in the past three games.

In last week’s 48-17 loss in Madison, Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez tossed three interceptions and only gained 61 yards on 20 carries. He has completed just 51% of his passes this year with five picks, but he had done a nice job using his legs before the Wisconsin loss. He has 482 rushing yards and eight rushing TD on the season. RB Rex Burkhead also has eight rushing touchdowns and leads the Huskers with 516 rushing yards, including 386 yards (7.0 YPC) in the past three weeks. The Nebraska defense was also atrocious against the Badgers, allowing a season-high 486 yards. The team is tallying a mere 1.6 sacks per game and its average of 4.0 tackles for loss ranks 113th out of the 120 FBS schools. Another weapon that has been a huge boost to the offense is kick returner Ameer Abdullah, who leads the nation with 35.1 yards per kick return and places 18th in the land in punt return average (12.0).

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia-Tennessee square off Saturday night

GEORGIA BULLDOGS (3-2)
at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (3-1)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -2, Total: 56.5

SEC foes try to avoid their second loss in conference play when Tennessee hosts Georgia on Saturday night.

The past six meetings in this series have all been decided by at least 12 points, but each school has won three times during this span. Georgia has won three straight this year (SU and ATS), holding these opponents to 169 total YPG and 1.8 YPC, while forcing eight turnovers. Vols sophomore QB Tyler Bray has thrown for at least 3 TD in every game this year and averages 332 passing YPG. But Bulldogs sophomore QB Aaron Murray scored four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) in last year’s 41-14 blowout of Tennessee and should have a huge bounce-back performance after throwing three picks last week. Take GEORGIA to grab the big road win.

This FoxSheets trend also supports the Bulldogs:

TENNESSEE is 2-15 ATS (11.8%, -14.5 Units) in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. The average score was TENNESSEE 19.6, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Georgia’s freshman running back, Isaiah Crowell is quickly making his mark as one of his conference’s top rushers. Crowell has topped 100 rushing yards in all three games versus SEC opponents this year, totaling 369 yards on 54 carries (6.8 YPC). Another freshman is also gaining confidence as his first year moves on, as WR Malcolm Mitchell already has 22 catches for 312 yards and three scores. In addition to the Bulldogs unbelievable rushing defense in the past three games, their passing defense ranks fourth in the nation this year with 152 YPG allowed.

Bray has been truly remarkable this season, connecting on 69 percent of his passes for 1,328 yards, 14 TD and 2 INT. He’s doing this despite a ground game that ranks 98th in the nation with 111 YPG. But other than his 18-yard game versus Florida, senior RB Tauren Poole has amassed 300 rushing yards in his other three contests this season. He only has one touchdown though, which came in Week 1 against Montana. Tennessee needs to beef up its pass rush against Georgia as the Vols rank 87th in the nation with just 1.5 sacks per

[StarDust Bum]

No. 17 Florida visits No. 1 LSU on Saturday

FLORIDA GATORS (4-1)
at LSU TIGERS (5-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -13.5, Total: 41.5

The No. 1 team in the land plays its fourth ranked opponent in six weeks when LSU entertains No. 17 Florida on Saturday. The Tigers have 13 straight home wins since losing to the Gators in 2009.

Florida is 8-1 ATS (6-3 SU) in its past nine trips to Baton Rouge, but starting QB John Brantley (ankle) is doubtful to play Saturday. Freshman QB Jeff Driskel likely has the daunting task of trying to move the football against a team with the country’s ninth-best defense in both yardage (262 YPG) and scoring (12.8 PPG). Baton Rouge is no place for a freshman QB to make his first career start, and Driskel doesn’t figure to get a lot of help from the ground game which rushed for 15 yards on 29 carries against Alabama last week. The Tigers will be jacked up to play in front of their home crowd, having allowed a total of 10 points and 250 yards in two games at Tiger Stadium. Play on LSU to win and cover the double-digit spread.

The FoxSheets show a four-star trend expecting this game to finish OVER the total:

Play Over - All teams where the total is 42 or less (FLORIDA, LSU) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*).

Brantley hurt his right leg when he was sacked in Saturday’s 38-10 loss to Alabama. Surgery isn’t required, but Brantley is likely to miss at least one week. Driskel didn’t fare too well as his replacement, completing 2-of-6 passes for 14 yards and taking two sacks. The freshman also fumbled a snap and led his offense to just two first downs. Before last week, Florida was leading the conference in rushing with 259 YPG, but LSU ranks third in the nation in run defense, allowing a mere 60 rushing YPG. Neither of the team’s top two rushers (Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey) played in last year’s home loss to LSU, but Demps has 215 yards on 8.3 YPC in two career games against the Tigers.

Despite averaging 38.0 PPG this season, LSU’s offense ranks 90th among FBS schools in total yardage (350 YPG). Ranking fourth in the nation in turnover margin (+1.8 per game) is a big reason for this discrepancy between points and yards. One player that could continue to help the Tigers on Saturday is QB Jordan Jefferson whose suspension was lifted last week after his felony battery charge in an Aug. 19 bar fight was reduced to a misdemeanor. He rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown on four carries last week, but Jarrett Lee will continue to get the bulk of playing time under center. Lee has completed 64-of-108 passes (59%) for 793 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in five games this year.

The Tigers offense revolves around the rushing attack, and Jefferson is a quality running QB with 784 rushing yards and 10 TD in his career. RB Spencer Ware leads the team with 333 rushing yards, but he gained only five yards on four carries last week before leaving with hamstring injury. Ware is expected to start on Saturday. Michael Ford was also held in check against Kentucky (nine carries, 22 yards), but he already has three multi-TD games this year. Alfred Blue, who had a career-best 72 rushing yards against UK and freshman Terrence Magee (38 rush yds vs. Kentucky) round out a strong RB rotation that should be able to gain large chunks of yardage on a Florida defense that surrendered 226 yards to Alabama last week.

[StarDust Bum]

Oklahoma favored big in Red River Rivalry

OKLAHOMA SOONERS (4-0)
vs. TEXAS LONGHORNS (4-0)

Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -10, Total: 57.5

The Red River Rivalry renews Saturday afternoon when No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 11 Texas meet halfway at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Oklahoma has won nine straight games dating to last season, while Texas is coming off back-to-back blowout road wins at UCLA (49-20) and Iowa State (37-14), gaining 888 yards in these two victories. In these two games since turnover-prone QB Garrett Gilbert was benched in Week 2, the Longhorns have thrown zero interceptions. Oklahoma has a high-flying offense, averaging 555 YPG (4th in nation), but Texas has a tremendous defense, ranking in the nation’s top-15 teams in both points allowed (14.8 PPG) and yards allowed (289 YPG). The past four meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and Saturday will be no different as TEXAS keeps this score close enough to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide a coaching trend siding with the ‘Horns:

Mack Brown is 22-9 ATS (71.0%, +12.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 42.9, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Sooners QB Landry Jones is fourth in the nation in offense (363 total YPG), and is coming off a 5-TD game against Ball State, but he has thrown five interceptions in the past three games. Jones threw for 236 yards and 2 TD in last year’s 28-20 win over Texas. He also replaced an injured Sam Bradford in the 2009 meeting, but only completed 24-of-43 passes for 250 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in that 16-13 loss. Although senior WR Ryan Broyles is off to another fast start this year (38 rec, 476 yds, 6 TD), Texas has held him to 12 catches for 130 yards in three meetings. RB Dominique Whaley will be playing in his first Oklahoma-Texas game, and although his overall numbers are impressive this year (378 rush yds, 7 TD), he has gained only 139 yards on 37 carries (3.8 YPC) in two games versus BCS opponents. The offense would be even more efficient if the return game was better. The Sooners are 110th in the nation in kick returns (18.0 avg.) and 98th in punt returns (4.4 avg). On the defensive side of the ball, Oklahoma has forced 10 turnovers, and in the lone takeaway-free game against Missouri, the Sooners allowed 532 yards to the Tigers.

The Longhorns QB duo of Case McCoy and David Ash have combined to go 39-of-56 (70%) for 548 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. They will probably not be asked to make too many difficult throws on Saturday. If the Longhorns are to pull off the upset on Saturday, the ground game will need to continue churning out yards. The team has averaged 206 rushing YPG (25th in nation), with Malcolm Brown the only rusher with more than 150 yards. Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson have each scored four of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns. Texas is tied for seventh in the nation with a turnover margin of +1.5 per game. Last year, the Longhorns tied for the fourth-worst turnover margin among FBS schools (-1.0 per game), which was a big reason they finished 5-7 on the year.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 10 Arkansas hosts No. 15 Auburn Saturday

AUBURN TIGERS (4-1)
at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (4-1)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arkansas -10.5, Total: 63.5

Two of the top-15 teams in the nation look to build upon upset wins when No. 15 Auburn visits No. 10 Arkansas on Saturday night.

Auburn held the erratic Stephen Garcia to 160 yards last week, but its defense is not capable of stopping a great offense like Arkansas has. Auburn allowed 333 rushing yards to Mississippi State, and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd torched the Tigers for 386 passing yards and 4 TD. With Razorbacks QB Tyler Wilson throwing for 510 yards (281 going to Jarius Wright) against a good Texas A&M defense, the Hogs should put up at least 40 points on Auburn. Wilson had 332 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT in last year’s 65-43 loss to the Cam Newton-led Tigers, the highest-scoring regulation game in SEC history. ARKANSAS is 15-2 SU (11-5 ATS) at home since 2008, and will win big in this game.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also favor the Razorbacks:

Bobby Petrino is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 46.3, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 1*).

ARKANSAS is 19-5 ATS (79.2%, +13.5 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992. The average score was ARKANSAS 37.8, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Auburn’s defensive woes have been well documented, but the offense hasn’t been great either. The team ranks 98th in the nation in passing yards (184 YPG), and is 80th in total defense (371 YPG). QB Barrett Trotter has been rather ordinary since a strong debut against Utah State, throwing for 159 YPG, 6 TD and 5 INT in his past four games. Part of his struggles has been an offensive line failing to protect him. Auburn has allowed 2.4 sacks per game this season, which is tied for 81st in the country. The one facet of the Tigers football team that still works is the running game. Michael Dyer ranks third in the SEC with 113 rushing YPG, including 141 yards on a whopping 41 carries (3.4 YPC) in last week’s win against South Carolina.

Arkansas has a minus-4 turnover margin this year, which is more a product of a defense not creating turnovers (four takeaways in five games). Wilson has only thrown three picks in 172 pass attempts. The offensive line needs to do a better job both protecting Wilson (12 sacks allowed) and opening up holes for the running game, which ranks 92nd among FBS schools with just 120 rushing YPG. Junior Dennis Johnson figures to get some more touches after amassing 123 total yards on eight carries and four receptions against Texas A&M. The defensive line also needs to get more push into opponents’ backfields. Arkansas ranks 103rd in the nation in sacks (1.0 per game) and is tied for 105th among FBS schools with its average of 4.4 Tackles for Loss per game.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB | ARIZONA ST at UTAH
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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CFB | ILLINOIS at INDIANA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) off 2 consecutive home wins, undefeated on the season
47-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.5% | 0.0 units )
4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | 0.0 units )
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CFB | OHIO ST at NEBRASKA
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%)
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

October 7, 2011

The Las Vegas sports books had some activity from sharp money Thursday afternoon for this week’s college football action that pushed several games.
Mississippi State initially opened at the Wynn Resort as a 17-point favorite on Sunday night while the Las Vegas Hilton opened up 16 ½ on Monday morning. Despite UAB being at home -- what little advantage it is for them -- it’s been all Miss State money and today the number was pushed up 18 ½ at the Hilton.

Purdue and Minnesota are coming off lopsided losses last week as they meet up in West Lafayette. For Minnesota, they will be without starting quarterback MarQueis Gray. The game was tentatively opened at Purdue -10 for low limits because of Gray’s ‘questionable’ status, but between the combination of wagers and air moves based on information, the line is now pretty universal at -13 ½.

North Carolina opened as a 12-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday night and then got bet down to -11 for its home game against Louisville. Once another line was available for reference from the offshore outfits, money started pouring in on Carolina. When the Wynn closed Sunday night, the line was Carolina -13 ½. On Monday, their first bets were on Carolina pushing the game to -15. Then on Thursday, they got a little buy-back on Louisville at +15 and 14 ½ and currently sit at 14.

The Hilton opened Central Florida as a 16-point favorite for its home against Marshall. Thursday afternoon they took some wagers on UCF pushing the game to -19.

Arizona also saw some action for its road game at Oregon State. Arizona opened as a 1-point favorite, was bet against down to PICK, and then bet on Thursday pushing

Quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to start for Florida State at Wake Forest this week, which should be a good thing, but the line hasn’t reflected it. The Hilton opened FSU -12 ½, was bet up to -13, and then bet against between Wednesday and Thursday to its current number of -10.

The Wynn opened Texas A&M as a 6 ½-point favorite for its road game at Texas Tech and no one touched the game. On Monday, they found themselves being bet to -7 ½, Wednesday to -8 and Thursday to -8 ½. The Hilton currently has the Aggies as 9 ½-point favorites.

Akron got some play for their Saturday home game, getting +20 ½-points on the opening Hilton line from Florida International. The South Point and others currently have the game 17.

The most interesting side-to-total game this week is Alabama laying -29 at home against Vanderbilt where the total is 41 ½. Anytime a spread is 50% of what the total is, the bettor has a great correlated parlay advantage whether taking the favorite to OVER, or underdog to the UNDER.

One of the big games of the week is Ohio State visiting Nebraska. The Huskers opened up as 10 ½-point favorites at the Hilton and are now -11. It’s been all one-way action with small money. The public has been winning these nationally televised games with regularity so far this season and Station Casinos looked to stay ahead of the line moves by being a half-point higher than the rest of the world at -11 ½. By them still being there -- with no large money taking the points -- it’s a sign to the rest of the sports books that there might not be any Buckeyes money until 13 comes around. Even then, it may be a hard sell because of how bad THE Ohio State University’s offense looks.

Station’s also had a high number on LSU -14, but found some Florida money Thursday and are now back down to -13 ½. LSU opened as a 12-point home favorites for this one.

The Hilton opened Oklahoma as a 10-point favorite for their Red River rivalry match against Texas. Sooners money came in initially, but the spread has been steady at -10 ½ with Leroy’s being the highest at -11. Station Casinos and Lucky’s have low number in town at -10.

The Wynn opened the game -10 ½ Sunday and got nothing but Texas money dropping as low as -8. But their roller coaster ride brought them right back in line to the number they started with. For their sake, I hope the Sooners don’t win by 10.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 6

October 7, 2011

Nebraska (-10) vs. Ohio State - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

NEB: 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS - Last week: at Wisconsin, L 17-48
OSU: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, L 7-10

Both teams are off of a loss. Nebraska was embarrassed in its first conference game as a member of the Big Ten while Ohio State continued to struggle in a 7-10 loss at home to Michigan State. This game looked like a match-up of juggernauts when it was announced in the offseason, now it's a match-up of two teams trying to save face in the Big Ten.

Ohio State was lucky to avoid a shutout last week against MSU as it scored a meaningless touchdown with :10 seconds remaining. It had just 35 rushing yards on 39 carries, totaled 178 yards, and allowed nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Problems stem from inconsistency at QB, where Bauserman and Miller have combined to complete just 40.3% for 96 YPG with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions over the past three games. More bad news for the offense: Herron, Posey, and Hall (supposed to return after suspensions) are all suspended for at least one more week.

After averaging 43 points per game in non-conference play, Nebraska could only manage 17 against Wisconsin last week. QB Martinez threw three costly interceptions and the defense, supposed to be the strength of this team, is still a work in progress. The Blackshirts are now allowing 377 yards per game (64th nationally) and 27 points per game (73rd). Coach Bo Pelini said he was embarrassed by his team's defensive performance in Madison and you can bet the Blackshirts will have a better performance here against OSU's struggling offense.

Determining an advantage for either side is difficult as it is Homecoming for the Huskers and Memorial Stadium should be electric for the first home game as a member of the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes can't afford another loss if they even want a shot at competing in the Big Ten as they have a road trip to 5-0 Illinois and a home meeting with 5-0 Wisconsin in their next two games.

Something to consider: OSU 18-2 straight up in Big Ten road games over the past five years and 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Nebraska is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite.

Penn State (-3) vs. Iowa - (ABC-ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

PSU: 4-1 SU, 0-5 ATS - Last week: at Indiana, W 16-10
IOWA: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

Penn State barely escaped with a win over hapless Indiana last week as its offensive woes continue. Just like Ohio State, PSU's struggles start at the quarterback position. McGloin and Bolden have completed just 52% with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. Overall this offense is 81st in total yards and 94th in points per game. Despite the offensive struggles, PSU's defense is keeping things afloat. This unit ranks 6th in pass defense, 24th in rush defense, and 7th in points allowed.

Iowa has defeated Penn State nine of the past 11 meetings and three straight overall, including a win @PSU in 2009 when the Lions were ranked no. 5. Last year, Iowa held Penn State to just 301 yards and 3 points in the 21-point victory.

This Hawkeyes offense is surging behind QB Vandenberg and a bevy of talented receivers. In his first season as starting QB, Vandenberg has completed 63% for 274 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He leads an offense that is averaging 38 points per game.

Iowa is off a bye week, and while we can't predict how the rest of the season will play out, a win here could give Iowa a head-start in the wide-open Legends division as four of its next five games are at home and they don't face Wisconsin or Illinois.

Something to consider: Iowa has been historically good as an underdog, covering 36 of its previous 54 games as a 'dog (67%). PSU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six home match-ups with Iowa.

Northwestern (+7) vs. Michigan - (Big Ten, 7:00 p.m. ET)

NW: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, L 35-38
MICH: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 58-0

This is the highest the Wolverines have been ranked since starting the 2007 at no. 5 (lost to Appalachian State and haven't been in the Top 10 since. This will be their first game outside of Ann Arbor, however, and they can't overlook a pesky Northwestern squad - especially with a road game at in-state rival Michigan looming. Northwestern has to fix its defense that's allowing 174 rush YPG and 420 total YPG or Denard Robinson and company will have a field day. These two haven't met since 2008.

It's hard to find a flaw with this Michigan squad. Offensively QB Robinson has this unit rolling, while the defense is allowing just 10.2 points per game (2nd nationally). However, some might attribute this to playing weak opponents at home, as the Wolves allowed 31 points to its best opponent thus far (Notre Dame). They are off of a 58-0 drubbing of horrendous Minnesota, and this team is building confidence under first year coach Brady Hoke.

Northwestern surged to a 28-10 third-quarter lead at Illinois last week behind outstanding play from quarterback Dan Persa (first start back from injury and he threw a career-high 4 touchdown passes). Then Persa got injured and everything fell apart. Illinois rallied for a 38-35 win and now Northwestern is in dire need of a victory. Persa is practicing and expected to start this weekend.

Something to consider: Michigan is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games as a favorite and 4-23 ATS its last 27 conference games. Northwestern is 13-5 ATS its last 18 games as an underdog but just 1-5 ATS its last 6 home games.

Indiana (+16) vs. Illinois - (Big Ten, 2:30 p.m. ET)

IND: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 10-16
ILL: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, W 38-35

The defense led Illinois to back-to-back close wins over Western Michigan and Arizona State, but the offense stepped up in a big way in the 38-35 comeback win over Northwestern last week. QB Scheelhaase had 391 yards passing - 268 of them to WR Jenkins - and four total touchdowns as the Illini erased an 18-point deficit in the final 18 minutes. Still, Illinois is playing with fire with three straight three-point victories. Now they're a double-digit road favorite in their first game outside of Champaign.

After hitting rock bottom in a loss at North Texas two weeks ago, Indiana bounced back with a decent performance against Penn State, particularly on defense. The Hoosiers forced three turnovers (two inside the red-zone) and limited the Lions to just 16 points. With QB Wright-Baker out with an ankle injury, sophomore Kiel got the first start of his career. He threw for 184 yards (49%) with a touchdown and an interception.

Indiana has dropped three of the last four against Illinois, including last year's 13-43 loss in Champaign. Indiana had +100 yards and +7 first downs, but turned the ball over five times and repeatedly gave the Illini a short field for easy scores.

Something to consider: Illinois hasn't been a double-digit road favorite since 2007. Indiana has covered five of the last six overall as an underdog but is just 9-18 ATS its last 27 games as a double-digit 'dog.

Purdue (-10) vs. Minnesota (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

PU: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Notre Dame, L 10-38
MINN: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 0-58

These two teams lost by a combined 86 points last week. Minnesota lost on the road while Purdue's loss came at home. Purdue's porous defense was exposed last week as the Irish racked up 287 rush yards and 551 total yards against this unit. On the other side, Minnesota was outgained by 403 yards and had 24 fewer first downs and was shutout. Neither of these teams has a lot going for them right now, but the good news is that one will get its first Big Ten win of the season on Saturday. Offensively the Boilermakers solid numbers may be deceiving (averaging over 200 yards passing and rushing and scoring nearly 30 points per game) as those numbers were accumulated against mediocre talent. QB's Marve and TerBush combined to complete 19-of-37 for 192 yards with a touchdown and a pick last week against Notre Dame. TerBush remains number one on the depth chart, but both will see playing time again this weekend.

Minnesota ranks at or near the bottom in every major offensive and defensive category. True freshman QB Shortell made the first start of his career last week as MarQueis Gray was out with a toe injury. Gray is expected to be back and the Gophers will welcome his athleticism (351 rush yards and 521 pass yards). Something to consider: Purdue has won 10 of the last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including last year's 11-point victory. However, the Boilers are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.

Wisconsin - BYE

WISC: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, W 48-17

Wisconsin opened up conference play with a 48-17 beat-down of Nebraska. There aren't many teams in the nation playing better football than Wisconsin right now. The Badgers rank 8th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 10th in total defense, and 4th in scoring defense. No matter the opponent, Wisconsin will be a healthy favorite for the remainder of the season (11-1 ATS the past 12 games).

Michigan State - BYE

MSU: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, W 10-7

Michigan State won its first game @OSU since 1998. The offense was supposed to be the strong point of this team, but QB Cousins (6 TD & 4 INT) and the rest of this unit has failed to match last years production. The defensive unit is what's holding this team together. This 'D' smothered Ohio State to the tune of 178 yards and 7 points. For the season this unit ranks 1st in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. The next two weeks will define the season with home dates against Michigan and Wisconsin.