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**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 06:48 PM

Oregon Ducks Host Cal Bears ESPN Thursday

The Oregon Ducks look to improve to 2-0 in Pac-12 play and to keep their slim BCS Championship hopes alive with a win over the Cal Bears this Thursday night.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET Thursday night, and the game will be televised nationwide on ESPN. The Don Best odds screen has Oregon as a 23 ½-point favorite at home with the total yet to be released.

Since losing to LSU in the season opener at Cowboys Stadium, it’s been business as usual for the Ducks who have averaged 60.3 points per game over their last three. The LSU loss may eventually cost Oregon a trip to the BCS Championship, but Chip Kelly's club is still in great position to challenge Stanford down the road for supremacy in the Pac-12.

Oregon (3-1) survived Nick Foles and Arizona in the Ducks’ last game by putting up points all game and out-shooting the Wildcats 56-31 in the end. LaMichael James rushed for a ridiculous 288 yards in the big win.

As is usually the case with the Ducks, the offense is confident and clicking now that they have a few games under their belt. At home with no distracting crowd, Oregon’s offense tends to run even better. The Bears will definitely have their hands full with this attack.

California (3-1) picked up its first loss of the season in thelast game against Washington as a 1 ½-point favorite on the road. Last season, Cal covered the spread against Oregon at home in a 15-13 loss as 19-point underdogs.

While Oregon has won the last two meetings between these two teams, Jeff Tedford has had his share of success against Oregon in recent years. Cal is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Ducks, and has remarkably held Oregon's high-octane offense to just 24 points or less in four of those five games.

Both Cal and Oregon have trended ‘over’ in college football betting this season, with each team’s record on the high side at 3-1. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Oregon’s last six at home, and four of Cal’s last six games overall.

Recent form may end up being more important than older trends, but it is worth noting that five of the last six games these teams have played have gone ‘under.’

As is illustrated by their 60.3 points per game over the last three, Oregon has just one speed, and that’s full speed ahead. Cal in all likelihood won’t get a break of Oregon letting up late, so to cover this spread the Bears are going to need to bring their best on offense or once again find a way to solve this dangerous spread attack.

The early weather forecast for Eugene on Thursday includes a 30 percent chance of rain and the mid-to-upper 50s for kickoff from Autzen Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 06:50 PM

Texas And Oklahoma Collide In Red River Rivalry

The Red River Rivalry between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns doesn’t need any hype for Saturday with both Big 12 squads undefeated and ranked in the top-11 nationally.

Early odds have Oklahoma as nine-point favorites, with the total still to be released. ABC will have the noon (ET) broadcast from the neutral site Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the host of this matchup since 1932.

The Sooners (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) are coming off home wins over Missouri (38-28) and Ball State (62-6) but fell from No. 1 to No 3 in the AP Poll over that span, getting leapfrogged by SEC schools LSU and Alabama.

Coach Bob Stoops isn’t worrying about the drop and for good reason. There’s a ton of football left and his team is still top-ranked in the Coaches Poll. The Don Best Linemakers Poll has had Oklahoma second behind Alabama the last few weeks and that will likely remain when the new version comes out Monday.

The Sooners shockingly fell behind 14-3 to Missouri before storming back with 28 straight points. However, they failed to ‘cover’ as 20-point favorites. Oklahoma needed no such comeback last week, jumping all over MAC lightweight Ball State and blowing by the 39 ½-point spread in the third quarter.

Wide receiver Kenny Stills had 80 yards receiving last week after missing Missouri (concussion). He’s an important complement to All-American Ryan Broyles (476 receiving yards), especially with Trey Flanks suspended indefinitely. Jaz Reynolds has stepped up the last two weeks (234 combined receiving yards).

Oklahoma’s passing attack ranks fifth in the country (377.8 YPG) with exceptional quarterback Landry Jones. The 44th-ranked running game (177.3 YPG) provides enough balance with former walk-on Dominique Whaley (379 yards) leading the way. Brennan Clay (161 yards) is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, so Whaley may have to carry a huge load.

The defense gives up 348 yards per game (40th nationally), but has done a good job limiting points (15.3 PPG, ranked 14th). The unit is capable of great efforts, holding then No. 5 Florida State to 246 total yards in the 23-13 road win on September 17.

Oklahoma has a 39-game home winning streak, best in the nation, and a 9-game winning streak overall (7-2 ATS).

The AP’s No. 11 Longhorns (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) have done an in-season makeover, benching quarterback Garrett Gilbert permanently. Coach Mack Brown did not want a repeat of last year’s 5-7 SU freefall.

The tandem of sophomore Case McCoy and freshman David Ash have taken over. First was a comeback 17-16 home win as 7 ½-point favorites over BYU on September 10. The results the last two games have also been impressive, road wins and ‘covers’ at UCLA (49-20) and Iowa State (37-14) to avenge losses to those schools last season.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Texas’ last two games after the ‘under’ was 2-0 in the first two.

McCoy has been the starter the last two games, completing a combined 19-of-27 passes (70.4 percent) for 278 yards. Ash only threw three passes against UCLA, but was 7-of-12 versus Iowa State for 145 yards and had touchdown passes of 40 and 48 yards in the first half.

Both quarterbacks will again see action this week. Ash is the better runner, which provides more of a worry for the Sooners defense. Neither has thrown an interception the last two weeks, a big problem for Gilbert.

Texas also has two solid running backs in freshman Malcolm Brown and senior Foswhitt Whittaker. Texas’ offense can cause problems for Oklahoma as long as the stage isn’t too big for the young signal callers.

The Longhorns’ defense is solid all-around and is allowing 289 YPG in total yards (ranked 15th nationally). However, the cornerbacks are young and facing Jones will easily be the biggest challenge of the year with no other opposing passing attack ranked in the top 50.

Oklahoma won last year’s meeting 28-20 as 3-point favorites before Texas’ season fell apart. The Longhorns were 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five meetings.

Early weather forecasts have the temperature in the 80s with isolated thunderstorms possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 06:51 PM

Boise State 3-TD Favorites At Fresno State Bulldogs

The No. 7 team in our Don Best Linemakers Poll will be in action in Friday night's nationally televised NCAA football betting duel, as the Boise State Broncos visit the Fresno State Bulldogs. This 9:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff from Bulldogs Stadium is slated to be on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

Boise State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has turned up on the wrong side of huge college football odds in each of the last two weeks. The Broncos had a 30-0 lead on the Nevada Wolf Pack at home last week before allowing 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to blow covering the 27-point spread.

Two weeks ago, it was the Tulsa Golden Hurricane which stuck in front of a 27½-point spread in a 41-21 Broncos triumph.

Still, the boys from the blue field are riding a six-game winning streak dating back to last year, and there hasn't been a game decided by less than 14 points in the bunch. The college football odds opened with the Broncos favored by 20-20½ for this contest, and has already gone to 21 at most books.

It's hard to criticize anything that the Broncos are doing this year. They rank No. 31 in total offense at 446.8 YPG and No. 19 in total defense at 298.8 YPG, and are in the Top 30 in scoring offense (36.5 PPG) and scoring defense (16.8 PPG).

It should be just another day at the office for QB Kellen Moore. He is completing 73.9 percent of his passes on the campaign and has 14 scores against four INTs. Moore threw for four touchdowns against the Bulldogs in last year's clash, and with three TDs in this one, he'll have accounted for a whopping 120 scores in his career.

Of course, Moore isn't exactly shaking in his boots about the idea of going against these Bulldogs. Fresno State has allowed 32.4 PPG this year, well down the list at 97th in the country. This is also its toughest test of the season by far, as the only game against a ranked opponent was a 42-29 loss at the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2.

Last year's game at Boise State was a disaster for head coach Pat Hill's offense. The Bulldogs only managed 125 total yards of offense, and Ryan Colburn was picked off twice while completing just sif oh his 23 pass attempts.

The hope is that Derek Carr, the brother of former No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick David Carr, can do a better job against the stout Broncos defense. Carr has thrown for 1,291 yards and 10 touchdowns this year with four picks.

As always though, the onus for the offense will be on the shoulders of Robbie Rouse. Rouse had 70 yards on 17 carries at Boise State last year, and has 600 rushing yards and four trips to the end zone this season. He is averaging 26.6 carries per game though, so fatigue could be an issue.

The Broncos haven't lost a game in this series since 2005, but that loss did come right here in Fresno. Since that point, Boise State is 5-0 SU and ATS, and has averaged 48.4 PPG.

These two teams used to both play in the WAC, so they are very familiar with each other. The favorite has gone 10-1 ATS in the 11 meetings dating back to 2000. The Broncos are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. Fresno State is hoping to snap a string of bad luck when playing on Friday nights, as it is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on Friday.

It should be a nice night for football in Fresno on Friday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s around kickoff time, and there is no chance for rain in the forecast.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-03-2011, 06:56 PM

Bettors cash late-night action

October 3, 2011

For the fifth straight week the sports books fate on a college football Saturday was in the hands of the popular teams playing in the nationally televised late games. The day looked to be starting out as one of the best of the season for the books with the favorites stumbling out of the gate and ultimately ending with a 20-32 record for the week.
The underdogs were so impressive last week that 16 of them won outright led by Toledo (+7.5), Central Michigan (+8.5), Washington (+9.5), Auburn (+10) and Clemson (+7).

As the first two waves of games were posted, every sports book director knew all they had to do to secure their best day of the season was split the late games with the public.

That's not too much to ask for, is it?

They weren't asking to sweep the board against the public, but rather just a measly split to get the corporate suits off their back for a Saturday because they haven't been happy with September's results that haven't met budgeted expectations.

The games the sports books needed to split on were Notre Dame (-12) against Purdue, Wisconsin (-9.5) against Nebraska, Alabama (-3.5) against Florida and Stanford (-21.5) against UCLA.

The success rate on these late games hasn't been good all season, so the house confidence level couldn't have been high, but most have been in the business so long that they know trends and streaks always cycle around.

However, this season, nothing has cycled around and the public win-rate thus far in these type of games has been pretty impressive and one-sided.

"I think we are 1-12 in those type of games this season," said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay. "And in most of those cases, the losses are compounded even more because many of the games have gone OVER the posted total which is always a very popular side with the public in any game."

On this day, the public wouldn't be denied and rolled strong with their win streak. Not only did they do better than a split, or even win three of them, but they took all four games.

Depending on what number the public got on the Notre Dame game, all four games also went OVER the total as well.

"Everything we had built up for the day on all the games, a day that was going real well for us, was lost in an instant with the four games," said Kornegay.

The back breaker for the sports books came in the final game posted where Stanford needed two unanswered fourth-quarter touchdowns to cover.

Stanford, in an attempt to impress pollsters and the BCS computer that might hold the Pac 12's weak play this season against them when big BCS paychecks are handed out, scored the cover touchdown with 1:51 remaining in the game to win 45-19. The final touchdown pass was thrown by starting quarterback Andrew Luck as well, showing how much Stanford wanted to make a statement in the box score for the rest of the nation that would likely read the score rather than watching the late west coast game.

The public love affair with Stanford won't stop anytime soon no matter how high the spread gets. The Stanford Cardinal are now 4-0 ATS this season and have been a thorn in the side of Vegas sports books every week. This week they'll welcome the struggling Colorado Buffaloes to Palo Alto as 27-point favorites.

Along with Stanford, the rest of this week’s big late games the sports books will have to beat down are Alabama (-28.5) at home against Vanderbilt, Arkansas (-10) at home against surprising Auburn and Nebraska laying 10 at home to The Ohio State University.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 11:07 PM

Florida Gators Minus John Brantley At LSU Tigers

Whereas this battle loomed with potential BCS consequences for both sides less than a week ago, now it has only one of the combatants retaining serious national title hopes.

For the other, the short-term prognosis has merely become one of survival.

Such is the backdrop for Saturday’s showdown in Baton Rouge featuring Florida and LSU. Kickoff at Tiger Stadium has been moved to 3:30 p.m. (ET) to accommodate CBS’s national TV coverage.

Early posted numbers on the matchup have LSU favored by 13½ points at most Las Vegas betting shops, with the total posted at 41 ‘under’ for this battle between SEC heavyweights.

Florida has been been reclassified into the cruiserweight class after being unmasked at The Swamp last weekend by Alabama. Not only were the Gators exposed as non-threat in the national title picture, but injury was added to insult as QB John Brantley suffered a lower leg injury on a sack at the end of the first half and did not return for the final two quarters of action.

Although Brantley’s malady will not require surgery or likely keep him sidelined for an extended period of time, coach Will Muschamp has already ruled his starting QB out for the contest at Baton Rouge.

Brantley’s easy transition to the pro-style offense installed by new Florida offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was one of the most interesting developments of the first month of the college campaign. Brantley, a poor fit for Urban Meyer’s spread-option schemes a year ago, was much more comfy in the new Weis system and had completed 65% of his passes in the young season before getting KO’d by the Tide.

But his absence is causing much concern in Gainesville, because touted true freshman Jeff Driskel, himself somewhat hampered by a mildly sprained ankle, appeared overwhelmed when called upon in relief of Brantley last week vs. 'Bama. Though understandable considering the Tide’s defensive prowess, things get no easier against John Chavis’ robust LSU stop unit on Saturday.

With that in mind, Muschamp is already announcing contingency plans for the trip to Baton Rouge, indicating a couple of other true frosh QBs, Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy, will get reps in practice this week and could be available for duty if needed on Saturday.

Florida’s hopes are thus likely reduced to a low-scoring defensive battle in Baton Rouge, with the Gator “D” tasked with slowing the LSU strike force. Recent developments in Baton Rouge, however, suggest that possibility can’t be overlooked.

Specifically, coach Les Miles could have a burgeoning QB controversy on his hands after former starter Jordan Jefferson was reinstated from suspension prior to last week’s game vs. Kentucky. Though his snaps were limited against the Wildcats, Jefferson did score a TD on his first series of the game when running it in from short yardage.

Moreover, Jarrett Lee, who inherited the starting role when Jefferson was first suspended in late August, completed only 8-of-21 passes vs. UK. Although Miles has yet to indicate any change is forthcoming at the position, his actions indicate that Jefferson is at the ready and will be used in certain situations. How Lee responds after performing capably without looking over his shoulder in the first four weeks of the season remains to be seen.

Whatever the QB dynamics, the LSU recipe for success remains much the same, with Lee (or Jefferson) not being asked to make too many big plays. Instead, their task is to let the Tiger infantry move the clock and chains and putting the QBs in favorable down-and-distance situations, while the defense and special teams provide positive field position.

This does lend to the possibility of a lower-scoring game, although that was not the case a year ago in Gainesville, when LSU won a wild 33-29 verdict. Miles eschewed a potential game-tying 53-yard field goal try in the final minute with a daring fake executed flawlessly by holder Derek Helton and PK Josh Jasper, instead giving the Tigers a first down and a chance to win in regulation. Which LSU did on a 3-yard TD pass from Lee to Terrence Toliver with just six seconds to play.

Despite Brantley’s absence, and last year’s result, pointspread performance history on both sides paints a prettier picture for Florida, which stands 19-8 vs. the number its last 27 outings away from The Swamp.

Meanwhile, “The Hat” has hardly been reliable at home vs. the number in recent years, as Miles stands just 9-22 vs. the spread his last 31 at Tiger Stadium, including last week’s non-cover vs. Kentucky.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2011, 11:10 PM

College Notebook

October 4, 2011

Arizona State…The anchor of the Sun Devil OL, C sr. Garth Gerhart, limped off of the Sun Devil Stadium field last Saturday vs. Oregon State in the first half with a twisted ankle and did not return to the fray. ASU's offense struggled somewhat in his absence, with a handful of bad snaps to QB Brock Osweiler helping to short-circuit a few drives, although the Sun Devils won anyway, 35-20.

Bowling Green... The Falcons were a bit shorthanded for their trip to Morgantown last week, as top rusher Anthon Samuel (leg injury; 414 YR and 6.8 ypc. helped by an earlier 96-yard TD run) and top receiver Eugene Cooper (academic issues; 21 catches thru first four games) were both absent in the lopsided 55-10 loss to WVU.

BYU... Cougars could have a QB controversy brewing as soph Jake Heaps was pulled last Friday vs. Utah State in favor of senior Riley Nelson, a onetime Utah transfer who began his career at USU in 2006. Nelson, who was splitting time early in 2010 with Heaps, led a late Cougar comeback with a pair of 4th Q TD passes, including the game-winner to Marcus Mathews (via a tip) in the final seconds of a 27-24 Cougar. No word from HC Bronco Mendenhall who might be starting this week vs. San Jose State.

Florida... Check status of QB John Brantley, who had completed 10 of 16 passes before twisting his knee and ankle just before halftime of last Saturday's 38-10 loss to Alabama. The game got out of hand in the second half when Brantley was sidelined and HC Will Muschamp inserted touted true frosh Jeff Driskel, who completed only 2 of 6 passes in Charlie Weis' offense. An extended absence of Brantley would hurt the Gators, who must travel to LSU this week.

Indiana... Starting QB Edward Wright-Baker, nursing a sore knee, missed last week's game vs. Penn State, although some Big Ten observers believe first-year HC Kevin Wilson was ready to hand the job to RS soph Dusty Kiel anyway after he led a belated fourth-quarter rally the previous week at North Texas. Kiel went the distance vs. the Nittany Lions but wasn't overly impressive, completing 22 of 45 for 182 yards as once again the Hoosiers could not score a TD until the 4th Q of an eventual 16-10 loss.

Kansas State... Touted Tennessee transfer RB Bryce Brown, who was expected to do big things for the Wildcats this season, was a no-show at team practices last week and for the game vs. Baylor. Personal issues are being cited as the official reason, although Brown had relinquished most of his carries to 5'8 dynamo John Hubert, who ran for 166 yards in the Sept. 24 win at Miami-Florida and another 57 YR last week vs. the Bears from Waco. Rough-hewn QB Collin Klein led all K-State rushers with 113 yards in last week's thrilling 36-35 win over Art Briles' Baylor side.

Kentucky... HC Joker Phillips looks like he wants to pull ineffective starting QB Morgan Newton, who struggled again last week at LSU when completing only 6 of 20 passes for 57 yards in the Cats' 35-7 loss. Frosh backup Maxwell Smith, however, doesn't appear ready to contribute after completing only 1 of 5 passes in his short stint before Newton got another chance in the late going and led a belated TD drive in the final minutes that at least gave UK the spread cover at Baton Rouge.

LSU... Former starting QB Jordan Jefferson has been reinstated to the Tigers team after charges against him resulting from a bar fight on August 19 were reduced to a misdemeanor. Jefferson then saw limited action last weekend vs. Kentucky, and even scored a TD on his first snap on 1-yard run, although HC Les Miles insists he has no inclination to rotate QBs or bench starter Jarrett Lee, who completed only 8 of 21 passes butt for 169 yards in the 35-7 win over UK.

Louisville... Starting QB Will Stein's shoulder injury suffered Sept. 17 vs. Kentucky forced him to be scratched from last Saturday's 17-13 loss to Marshall. Unlike vs. the Wildcats, however, true frosh Teddy Bridgewater did not come to the rescue vs. the Thundering Herd, suffering a pair of picks and being held to just 16 YR on 15 carries in the 4-point loss.

Minnesota... The season has gone pear-shaped for the Gophers, already losers at home to New Mexico State and North Dakota State and whose first-year coach Jerry Kill was admitted to the hospital for the second time in less than three weeks with another bout of seizures prior to last week's game at Michigan. Kill was released from the hospital and coached last Saturday's game at Michigan, but maybe wished he hadn't in a 58-0 loss. Minny had to go the whole way with true frosh Max Shortell at QB after starter MarQueis Gray was ruled out with an injured toe on his left foot. Shortell completed only 11 of 22 passes and was sacked three times as the Gophers failed to convert any of their eleven third-down chances at Ann Arbor.

Ole Miss...Maybe Houston Nutt has found his QB. Juco redshirt Randall Mackey became the Rebs' third starter at the position this season last Saturday at Fresno State, passing for 214 yards and running for 35 more while providing a heretofore absent spark to the Ole Miss attack in a 38-28 win over the Bulldogs.

Nevada...PK Anthony Martinez missed last Saturday's game at Boise State with a hip injury, although strong-legged RS frosh Allen Hardison, a prep soccer standout, filled in admirably with a field goal in the 30-10 loss to the Broncos. Wolf Pack was also minus RS frosh QB Cody Fajardo, who suggested at a much longer look from HC Chris Ault when running for 139 yards at Texas Tech Sept. 24, due to shoulder injury. Third-stringer Mason Magleby tossed Nevada's only score of the day with a 53-yarder to Rishard Mathews in the last minute of the 20-point loss.

New Mexico... HC Mike Locksley was dismissed shortly after the Lobos' 48-45 OT loss to Sam Houston State on Sept. 24. Locksley, who had earlier survived a couple of unwelcome off-field incidents, was canned by AD Paul Krebs after not only the loss to the FCS Bearkats, but because a 19-year-old family friend was charged with DWI while driving a car registered to Locksley. "I just didn't see a good ending to the story," said AD Krebs after the dismissal. Defensive coordinator George Barlow will be the interim HC for the rest of 2011. although his regime began very inauspiciously with a 42-28 loss to rival new Mexico State last Saturday, UNM's third loss in a row to the Aggies.

New Mexico State... The Aggies, who had already lost QB Andrew Manley for the season with a knee injury, were also minus top WR Taveon Rogers (19 receptions and nearly 20 yards per catch, plus 26.3 per kick return) last Saturday at New Mexico. But it was all no problem for the Aggies, who rolled to a 42-28 win behind QB Matt Christian, who started eight games in 2010 and tossed 4 TD passes vs. the Lobos.

North Texas... Starting QB Derek Thompson was held out of last Saturday's game at Tulsa because of a lower-body injury (and we thought only the NHL referred to injuries in such general terms). Backup Andrew McNulty got the start vs. the Golden Hurricane but was picked off twice for TDs by Tulsa defenders in an eventual 41-24 loss. The Mean Green rallied late for the backdoor cover behind RS soph QB Brent Osborn, who tossed a pair of TDs in the final five minutes to make the score line a bit more flattering for UNT.. Thompson's status for FAU this week is unknown.

Northwestern... Sr. QB Dan Persa, out since last November with an Achilles tendon injury, made a triumphant return to the Cat lineup last week at Illinois when throwing 4 TD passes, but pulled himself from the game late in the 4th Q when apparently re-aggravating the injury. Backup Kain Colter was in for NU in its belated final drive of a bitter 38-35 loss to the Illini.

Ohio State... Beleaguered interim HC Luke Fickell, whose assignment is doubtful to last beyond this season, has suggested that he might re-open the QB derby prior to this week's game at Nebraska. And that would include RS soph Kenny Guiton and RS frosh Taylor Graham in the mix along with sr. Joe Bauserman and true frosh Braxton Miller. All in the wake of last Saturday's ugly 10-7 home loss to Michigan State when the struggling Braxton was pulled in the second half. Bauserman fared only slightly better, completing 7 of 14 passes, but did contribute to OSU's only TD of the day on a 33-yard TD pass with 10 seconds to play. The Buckeyes managed just 178 yards of offense vs. the nation's top-ranked defense from East Lansing.

Oregon State... RB Malcolm Agnew, who gained 223 yards in the opening shock loss to Sac State but was subsequently sidelined by a pulled hamstring, missed his third straight game last Saturday when the Beavers lost at Arizona State by a 35-20 count.

Penn State... Joe Paterno's QB merry-go-round continued last week at Indiana as Shades rotated Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin with little success until McGloin, in his second chance of the game, fired a 74-yard TD pass to Derek Moye immediately upon re-entering the game in the 3rd Q of an eventual 16-10 win over the Hoosiers.

Rutgers…QB controversy in East Brunswick? Maybe after touted true frosh Gary Nova relieved ineffective starter Chas Dodd in the second half last Saturday at Syracuse and promptly paced the Scarlet Knights to a heart-stopping 19-16 double-OY win. Nova completed 14 of 24 passes and a TD and led a late Rutgers rally at the Carrier Dome. Nova figured to get some snaps regardless vs. the Orange, but sources say HC Greg Schiano might be contemplating a starting QB switch to Nova. Stay tuned.

Tennessee... With star soph WR Justin Hunter out for the season with a knee injury suffered Sept. 17 at Florida, soph Da'Rick Rogers stepped up last weekend vs. Buffalo, catching 7 passes for 179 yards and 2 TDs from QB Tyler Bray in the Vols' 41-10 win.

TCU... RB Ed Wesley returned to the lineup last week vs. SMU for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury in the opener at Baylor. Wesley looked fine when rumbling for 96 yards on 12 carries, but the mistake-prone Frogs were ambushed by their Metroplex neighbors in OT, 40-33.

UAB... Starting QB Bryan Ellis, who suffered a concussion the previous week at East Carolina, was held out of last week's game at Troy. Although backup Jonathan Perry fared decently as he had the previous week vs. the Pirates, completing 19 of 38 passes and putting the Blazers in position for an upset win before two late Trojan scores gave Troy a 24-23 win. UAB has handily covered the point-spread in its last two games with Perry at the controls.

Utah... Ute QB Jordan Wynn suffered an injury to his non-throwing (left) shoulder near the end of the first half last Saturday vs. Washington. Backup Jon Hays went the entire second half for the Utes, who lost contact with the Huskies in an eventual 31-14 U-Dub romp. Utah was held scoreless with hays at the controls until a TD pass in the final minute of play. The status of Wynn, who endured serious surgery on his other shoulder (the one that throws) after last season, was unknown as of Sunday for this week's game vs. Arizona State.

Virginia...HC Mike London might be moving toward a permanent change at QB as true frosh David Watford again impressed off the bench in relief of starter Michael Rocco in last Saturday's narrow 21-20 OT escape vs. Idaho at Charlottesville. The Cavs were also minus top RB Kevin Parks (271 YR) for last week's cliffhanger vs. the feisty Vandals.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:00 PM

Notre Dame Preps For Air Force Option Attack

Just in case Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly suspects his Fighting Irish might be overconfident at the thought of facing a service academy foe this week, all he has to do is bring out film of recent meetings vs. Navy and this week’s foe Air Force to get the attention of his troops.

That might help the Notre Dame cause on Saturday against the visiting Fly Boys for the 3:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff at South Bend. As usual for Irish home games, NBC provides the national TV coverage.

Oddsmakers are certainly not showing a lot of respect to the Falcons, who are listed at 15 ½-point underdogs on the Don Best odds screen. That number has dropped slightly since the Irish peaked at 16 ½-point favorites earlier in the week. The total is posted at a brisk 55½.

We are relatively sure that Kelly is well aware of the risks of overlooking a service academy foe, and should not have too much of a sell job to don on his team which was blasted last year by Navy, 35-17. Indeed, the Irish have lost four of their last six vs. service academies since 2007, including a 41-24 spanking at the hands of the Force against a Charlie Weis-coached team in 2007, the last previous meeting between these squads.

Air Force beating Notre Dame is nothing new, however. It became rather commonplace in the early 80s, when first Kenny Hatfield-coached Falcon squads, and then Fisher DeBerry-led Air Force teams, beat Gerry Faust’s Irish four times in a row between 1982-85.

And the 41-24 scoreline favoring the Force in 2007 was hardly a surprise, given that the Falcs were 3 ½-point favorites in that game, the only time current AFA coach Troy Calhoun has faced the Fighting Irish.

The Falcons enter South Bend as a confident bunch this week after a rousing 35-34 overtime win over Navy an Annapolis last week. Although Air Force blew an 18-point lead in regulation, it regrouped and prevailed in the extra session for a second straight win over the Midshipmen and all but sealing retention of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for a second straight year.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Falcons have not experienced letdowns after recent Commander-in-Chief battles vs. Navy and West Point, covering the spread in six of eight such chances the past four years.

Once again, Bob Diaco’s Notre Dame defense will have to deal with an option-centric attack similar to the Navy version that battered the Irish a year ago, and more dynamic than the Army option that lacked big-play ability and was beaten by Notre Dame, 27-3, at Yankee Stadium last November.

In senior QB Tim Jefferson, however, the Falcons have an experienced option pilot who has burned teams with both his arm and legs in the past. The Air Force option has retained a sneaky downfield passing element with the crafty Jefferson, who throws sparingly but effectively, already tossing five TD passes and completing 70 percent of his tosses this season.

Make no mistake, however, as Air Force still prefers the infantry route, its bristling rush offense once again ranked among the nation’s leaders (3rd at 364 ypg). Wingback Asher Clark is an acknowledged big-play threat, gaining an astonishing 9.2 yards per carry thus far in 2011, while the multi-skilled Jefferson is the Force’s second-leading rusher with 186 yards on his ledger.

The real concerns for Air Force entering this battle, however, are defensively, where the Falcons have sprung a few leaks this season. In particular, they’ve been vulnerable against the run, allowing 227 ypg to rank a poor 113th nationally in that category.

Looking to take advantage will be a Notre Dame offense that seems to be finding a groove behind soph QB Tommy Rees, who supplanted senior Dayne Crist as the starter after the opening week loss to South Florida. Rees is completing 65 percent of his passes and has developed quite a rapport with big-play threat Michael Floyd, who already has 47 catches through five games, although he’s not getting downfield as much as expected (only 11.9 yards per catch).

Air Force’s shortcomings vs. the run might provide a chance for Irish RB Cierre Wood, with 550 yards rushing already, to do some real damage.

Note, also, that although Kelly’s Irish won and covered handily in their last home game vs. Michigan State three weeks ago, they have still managed pointspread wins in just two of nine outings at South Bend since last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:02 PM

Miami Hurricanes, Va Tech Hokies ACC Clash

The Hurricane warning from Miami in college football for this season has turned into a false alarm.

We’re not sure what they were calling the warning from Blacksburg, but anything that suggested Virginia Tech was a serious national title contender looks to have been a false alarm, too.

Thus, the backdrop for Saturday’s ACC Coastal showdown at Lane Stadium has lost a lot of its luster, with neither Miami (2-2) nor Virginia Tech (4-1) now mentioned among serious potential national title contenders.

A spot in the BCS, however, is still within reach of both as they prepare for Saturday’s kickoff at 12:30 p.m. (ET) at Blacksburg. The Hokies have been installed as 7 ½-point favorites at most Las Vegas sports books, with the total hovering at 45. ESPN’s GamePlan provides the TV coverage from Appalachia.

Miami’s problems have not been hard to predict, considering the controversies that swept over the program in the summertime. The fallout from those supposed transgressions is still to come, with potential NCAA sanctions looming on the horizon after the sordid details of improper benefits showered upon the Miami players by disgraced former booster Nevin Shapiro.

The investigative process, however, figures to be a long and winding one. Most ACC observers are watching for potential repercussions regarding first-year coach Al Golden, who inherited this hornet’s nest after last season and could be excused for wondering what he had gotten himself into in south Florida.

Some sources suggest that Golden could reappear on the radar for several projected high-profile job openings in the offseason, maybe even at alma mater Penn State should Joe Paterno be in this last year with the Nittany Lions, as some suspect in Happy Valley. ACC insiders believe Golden could probably walk away from Miami without incurring any buyout penalties due to the Shapiro-related problems. Stay tuned for more developments as the season progresses.

In the meantime, the 'Canes are trying to gain traction after splitting their first four games. The formula has been a bit different offensively than recent years, with Golden not asking QB Jacory Harris to do as much as predecessor Randy Shannon did the past few seasons.

Instead, Miami is slowing things down on the attack end and relying upon RBs Lamar Miller (who gained 163 yards last year vs. VT) and Mike James to move the chains and take some pressure off of Harris, who has correspondingly cut down on his mistakes from a year ago (6 TD, 3 INT).

Miami’s major concern at the moment is stopping the run, as opposing teams have gashed the 'Canes for 202 yards pg on the ground, ranking an uncharacteristic 105th nationally in that category.

That shortcoming could pose a problem against a Hokies offense that has been able to establish an infantry diversion rather effectively thus far. Behind slamming junior RB David Wilson (605 Yards, 5.7 YPC), VPI has gouged foes for 196 yards per game on the ground.

The concerns for coach Frank Beamer, however, revolve around 6-foot-6 soph QB Logan Thomas, who is proving to be a very slow study at a position that was so ably handled by Tyrod Taylor for the past four seasons. Thomas, despite his vast physical skills, still appears tentative and has not been confident throwing the ball downfield. Stats that include only four touchdown passes and five picks in five games confirm those difficulties.

For the moment, at least, Beamer is pivoting the offense around Wilson, although that strategy backfired last week vs. Clemson when the Tigers dared Thomas to beat them through the air. Thomas couldn’t and the Hokies went down to a humbling 23-3 home defeat. Improvement at the QB spot from Thomas is necessary if Beamer wants to make another run at a BCS spot.

In the meantime, another attack-minded Bud Foster Hokie defense will keep VPI competitive most weeks. Foster’s stop unit, led by playmaking LB Bruce Taylor, ranks fourth nationally in total defense, allowing only 249.6 yards pg.

Spread-wise, note that Beamer’s Hokies are in a skid, dropping their last four vs. the number, although they have mostly dominated the 'Canes in recent years. Indeed, Virginia Tech is 7-1 straight up and vs. the spread in the last eight meetings, and Beamer has covered nine of his last 10 against Miami.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:03 PM

South Carolina Gamecocks Host Kentucky Wildcats

Never mind the SEC’s national TV contracts with ESPN and CBS. When it comes to South Carolina (4-1), we think we have a better network idea.

Perhaps Bravo TV? The E! Channel? Or what about SOAPnet?

Forgive us for wondering if Gamecock football has become more suitable for reality TV or soap operas after yet another QB change by coach Steve Spurrier, just in time for Saturday’s game against visiting Kentucky (2-3) at Williams-Brice Stadium.

Before one of those other TV networks gets their hands on South Carolina, you can tune into this one vs. the Wildcats on the ESPN GamePlan, with kickoff moved several hours earlier than originally scheduled, to 12:20 p.m. (ET).

Spurrier’s QB shuffle has not scared off Gamecock money in the Las Vegas sports books, where Carolina is a solid 21-point pick at most outlets, a price which seems more a condemnation of UK than endorsement of Carolina. More on the Wildcats in a moment.

The total on the game sits at 43½.

The specifics of Spurrier’s latest benching of QB Stephen Garcia, who was also demoted for the opener vs. East Carolina, less intrigues savvy SEC observers than a curious pattern that seems to have developed since Spurrier arrived in Columbia to replace Lou Holtz for the 2005 campaign.

Namely, has Spurrier lost his old Midas touch with his quarterbacks?

The switch to sophomore Connor Shaw for the Kentucky game hardly appears a foolproof plan, considering Shaw’s limited exposure and struggles in the past. That would include the East Carolina opener when Shaw was yanked in favor of Garcia with the Gamecocks trailing 17-0 in the second quarter. Garcia ended up sparking a rousing 56-37 comeback win that night in Charlotte, another curious twist in his saga at Columbia.

In the bigger picture, however, many SEC observers remain perplexed at the ongoing ups-and-downs Spurrier has endured with his QBs at Carolina, certainly a far cry from what was a consistent position of strength when Spurrier coached at Florida. In those days, Spurrier was considered the guru of QBs, and for good reason, having himself been a Heisman Trophy-winning QB as a Florida Gator in 1966, and tutoring a succession of accomplished Gator QBS, including 1996 Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel.

The same recipe, however, has not worked with Spurrier’s Gamecocks, who have suffered through the inconsistencies of Blake Mitchell, Syvelle Newton, Chris Smelley and Garcia at the QB spot over the past six years.

And Garcia, in particular, has frustrated, occasionally flashing brilliance and confirming Spurrier’s faith, but also brutally inconsistent, as has been the case most of this season. With only four TD passes and nine picks thus far in 2011, Garcia was ripe for another benching. The fact Auburn was daring him to throw last week and piling as many as eight defenders in the box to stop RB Marcus Lattimore in the stunning 16-13 loss to the Tigers served to illuminate Garcia’s inadequacies and hastened his demotion.

The Garcia situation puzzles even further, however, because of his tenuous relationship with Spurrier, including past benchings and suspensions. Many suggest that Spurrier is simply becoming more stubborn, refusing to admit the Garcia project was doomed for failure until halfway through his senior season, when indicators have been present for much longer that this episode as going to end badly.

If it seems like we’re ignoring Kentucky, we’re not, but we just can’t think of many good things to say about Joker Phillips’ Wildcats, who have lost three straight after a pair of unimpressive wins over Western Kentucky and Central Michigan to open the season.

UK’s problems somewhat resemble South Carolina’s on the attack end, although the Cats’ woes are exacerbated by the fact their “O” has no comparable big-play threats to Carolina’s aforementioned Lattimore (132 ypg rushing) or home run WR Alshon Jeffery.

To say the least, Kentucky ranks 113th in pass offense (139 ypg), 113th in scoring offense (15 ppg), and 118th in total offense (255 ypg).

Phillips has sorely missed last year’s explosive offensive elements, RB Derrick Locke plus WRs Chris “Hardball” Matthews and do-everything Randall Cobb, now dazzling the NFL as a Green Bay rookie star. Their collective absence, however, has contributed to the struggles of junior quarterback Morgan Newton, completing only 50% of his passes with six TDs and six picks. Indeed, Joker has yanked Newton in both of the last two games, although true frosh Maxwell Smith has hardly appeared a better alternative.

Offensive line struggles have haunted UK, with Newton already sacked 21 times; only Pitt has allowed more sacks (22) than the Wildcats. Phillips and offensive coordinator Randy Sanders believe Newton is simply holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks rather than getting rid of the pigskin when the protection breaks down.

If there has been a positive for Kentucky, it’s been the play of defensive coordinator Rick Minter’s pass defense, which ranks 11th nationally, allowing just 164 ypg and a mere 45.9% completions.

This is also a big revenge game for Carolina, which blew a 28-10 lead in the third quarter at Lexington last October en route to a stunning 31-28 defeat. The 'Cocks faded that night in the second half at Commonwealth Stadium after Lattimore was knocked out of the game in what would be Spurrier’s first-ever loss to UK as a player or coach after 17 previous wins.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:05 PM

Trending: College Football Statistical Edges

The old mantra of “Run the ball and stop the run” may seem like in outdated cliché in college football with pass-happy spread offenses becoming all the rage. But five weeks into the 2011 college football season, the ground game has been a key factor for bettors.

Winning Bets
Every week in The Platinum Sheet, we mine the numbers for the top seven statistical mismatches in a series of offensive, defensive, and offense/defense differential categories. And during weeks three through five, rushing-based mismatches have proven to be the best bets.
The top one during that span: Yards per rush differential, which is 13-7-1 ATS (65%). This is a measure of a team’s yards-per-carry on the season minus YPC allowed, compared to their current week’s opponent. In Weeks 3-5, teams with a YPC differential advantage of +5.0 or better were a perfect 8-0 ATS. For Week 6, Texas A&M has a +3.7 YPC differential over Texas Tech, the week’s highest mark. Stanford isn’t far behind, with a +3.6 YPC differential over Colorado.

There are a couple other rushing-based statistical edges have been strong plays so far. The top seven rushing yards allowed per game edges over the past three weeks have gone 13-8 ATS (62%). Again, Texas A&M (over Texas Tech) has the week’s top edge here, at +166.0, with Virginia Tech (+144,1 over Miami-Fla.) the second-highest.

Rushing yards per game differential is 12-8-1 ATS (60%); Army (+320.0 over Miami Ohio) has the week’s biggest edge there.

Losing Bets
But teams that simply accumulate big rushing totals haven’t had the same advantages. The top rushing yards per game statistical edges are an even 10-10-1 ATS over the past three weeks, and just 10-11 SU.
Passing game edges haven’t been nearly as successful. The top passing yards per game edges and passing yards per game differential edges are 7-14 ATS (33%). In Week 5, the top six passing yards gained per game edges all lost ATS, and the No. 1 weekly edge in that category went 0-3 ATS in Weeks 3-5. Miami Ohio (+217.8 PYPG and +239.6 PYPG diff. over Army) leads the way in both of those categories for Week 6.

Surprisingly, yards per play differential has disappointed the most. The top statistical edges in YPP differential are 6-14-1 ATS (30%), worst among all statistical edges, and teams with a YPP differential advantage of +5.0 or better are 2-6-1 ATS (25%). Central Florida (+4.9 over Marshall) has Week 6’s biggest edge in YPP differential.

Looking merely at points-based edges has proven misleading as well. While the top statistical edges in points per game and scoring differential are 17-4 SU (81%), best among our statistical edges, the PPG edges are only 11-9-1 ATS (55%) and scoring differential is 9-12 ATS (43%).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:16 PM

Tech Trends - Week 6

October 5, 2011

Thursday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

CAL at OREGON...Tedford has covered 4 of last 5 vs. former employer. But Cal just 1-8 vs. line last 9 away from Berkeley, and Tedford just 5-10 as dog since '05. Ducks 9-3 vs. line last 12 at home vs. FBS foes. Oregon, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE...MTSU just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 at Murfreesboro, although Stockstill 11-7 last 18 as chalk. Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 7
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

BOISE STATE at FRESNO STATE...Boise has owned Fresno lately, winning and covering last five and 8 of last 9 meetings. Avg. score 54-15 last three meetings! Broncos have covered 10 of last 11 away from blue carpet. FSU 6-22 last 28 vs. line at Dog House. Boise, based on team trends.

Saturday, Oct. 8

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)...This series has swung back and forth since Stoops and Mack began hooking up in '99. Era of Stoops and five straight covers between 2000-04 turned into Horns on 4-0-1 unbeaten spread run 2005-09 before OU won and covered again LY. Stoops has now covered four straight as chalk away from home after dropping 7 of previous nine in role. Slight to OU, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at INDIANA...Home team has won and covered last 3 and 7 of last 9 meetings. Hoosiers 6-2 vs. spread last 8 at Bloomington. Zook, however, has covered 8 of last 10 away from Champaign-Urbana. Slight to Indiana, based on series home trends.

VANDERBILT at ALABAMA...Dores haven't beaten Tide since '84 when George McIntyre's Vandy team beat Ray Perkins' Bama by a 23-14 score. Dores now 0-5 their last five as road dog after solid mark previously in role (18-4 previous 22). Nick on 21-10 spread run since '09, 31-15 last 46 on board since late '07. Nick also 9-2 last 11 laying 20 or more. Bama, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON...Spaziani on 6-15 spread slide since late '09. Dabo 3-0 as home chalk TY, but only 1-4-1 last 6 laying DD at Death Valley. Clemson, based on team trends.

UCONN at WEST VIRGINIA...UConn finally scored first SU win over WVU LY, although Huskies now have two straight covers in series. WVU has won and covered previous five meetings. UConn just 2-4 last 6 as road dog after 6-0 mark prior. Slight to WVU, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at UAB...Blazers just 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home and 2-6 vs. number last 8 on board overall since late LY. MSU no covers last 4 TY and Dan Mullen only 14-15 vs. line with MSU, although they are 4-0 vs. line against non-SEC teams away from home. MSU, based on team trends.

IOWA at PENN STATE...Shades no covers first five TY and last seven overall since late 2010. Iowa has won and covered last three years in series. Ferentz 10-5 last 15 vs. line away from Iowa City (though 2-5 last 7). Iowa, based on team trends.

PITT at RUTGERS...Road team had covered four straight in series prior to Pitt's 41-21 home in LY. Panthers 7-3-2 vs. line away from home dating to Wannstedt years and early '09. Rutgers has covered last four TY. Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at PURDUE...Purdue won and covered LY, breaking 2-game losing streak to Gophers. Boilermakers, however, are 1-8 their last 9 as Ross-Ade chalk. Minnesota 5-2 vs. line last seven on road. Minnesota, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at NORTH CAROLINA...Cards 6-1 vs. line away from home for Charlie Strong. Louisville, based on Cards' road trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NC STATE...Chips now 3-10 last 13 vs. spread. Note that Tom O'Brien did enter this season 24-11 vs. line since '08. But Wolfpack no covers first two as DD chalk this year. Slight to NCS, based on extended trends.

MEMPHIS at RICE...Memphis 2-15 SU and 7-10 vs. line since Larry Porter arrived LY. Tigers haven't faced Rice since 2008. Owls have covered five straight at home since early 2010. Rice, based on team trends.

ARMY at MIAMI-OHIO...Army has been routed in two trips to MAC sites this season. West Point reverting back to previous home-road form after inside-out pattern the past two years for Ellerson; this year the home team has covered in first five Black Knights games. Miami-O, however, notoriously poor home chalk (0-1 TY, no covers last nine in role). Army, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...BGSU 15-6 in road dog role since '07. Broncs, however, have covered six straight since late 2010, including 41-7 win over Falcs late LY. BGSU ready for Waldo adventure. Slight to WMU, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at BALL STATE...Temple 15-7 vs. line away since '08. Cards won at home vs. Army but still just 2-12 last 14 on board at Muncie. Temple, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at UTAH...First conference meeting between these two since the days of the old WAC in 1977. Sun Devils 9-2 vs. number last 11 away from Tempe. Utes no covers last four in Salt Lake City. ASU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at BYU...Cougs just 5-10 vs. number last 15 as Provo chalk. SJSU has covered last four TY. SJSU, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...EMU quietly covering some games on road, now four straight and five of last six away from Ypsilanti. Although Eagles have been brutalized the last four years vs. Toledo, which has won and covered all handily. Rockets 4-1 last 5 as Glass Bowl chalk. Toledo, based on series trends.

OHIO at BUFFALO...Solich 4-2 SU and vs. spread against Bulls. Solich also 7-2 last 9 vs. points as MAC visitor. Buffalo no covers last 7 as MAC host. Solich, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Tough sledding for Hazell, 1-4 vs. line for Flashes. Kent 3-6 as DD road dog since '07, and only 6-13-1 last 20 on board since late '09. NIU no covers last four this season. NIU, based on team trends.

AUBURN at ARKANSAS...Hogs had won and covered two straight vs. Tigers prior to 65-43 loss to Cam LY. Petrino has covered 7 of last 8 as host. Arkansas, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at GEORGIA TECH...Jackets running wild with wins in first five TY (4-1 vs. line). Teams haven't met since '07, when Chan was still coaching GT. Maryland 1-3 vs. line for Edsall TY, and note Edsall was only 12-15 as road dog at UConn from 2005-10. GT, based on team trends.

COLORADO at STANFORD...Tree on 12-game SU and 7-game cover streak. Stanford has also covered its last five as DD chalk. Buffs no covers last seven as true visitor. Stanford, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at TENNESSEE...These two have taken turns whomping one another the past two years. Georgia's 41-14 rout LY was also first Dawg cover vs. UT after Vols had covered previous four. Richt just 2-7 vs. line last nine away from Athens. UT 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. FBS foes since mid '2010. Tennessee, based on team and extended series trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer dominating this series lately, 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight meetings, and 9-1 last 10 vs. spread against Canes. Al not-so-Golden thus far with Miami, 1-3 vs. line . Beamer, based on series trends.

AIR FORCE at NOTRE DAME...Teams haven't met since 2007 when Falcs won 41-24 at South Bend over Charlie Weis' worst team. Brian Kelly now 2-4-3 vs. line at South Bend. AFA, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at NAVY...Mids 3-1 vs. line TY and have covered their last three as chalk. USM only 4-6 vs. spread its last 10 away from home. Navy, based on team trends.

UNLV at NEVADA...Fremont Cannon! Wolf Pack has won last six Fremont Cannon battles and has covered five of those, including last three at Mackay Stadium. Rebs 2-13 vs. line last 15 on road. Chris Ault 21-7 vs. line as Reno chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on team and series trends.

MARSHALL at UCF...UCF has won last six SU vs. Herd and covered 6 of last 7 meetings. O'Leary 9-2 vs. line last 11 as host and 22-8 last 30 on board overall (though 0-2 last 2). Herd only 1-6 vs. points last 7 as visitor. UCF, based on team and series trends.

LA TECH at IDAHO...La Tech has covered last four meetings. Vandals no covers last 8 vs. WAC foes at Kibbie Dome. La Tech, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA at OREGON STATE...Mike Stoops has lost last 9 SU vs. FBS foes, 2-7 vs. line in those games. But Beavs on 1-5, and 2-7 last 9, spread slide. Arizona, based on OSU negatives.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy 13-4 vs. line since LY and 4-1 last 5 laying DD. Cowboys routed Turner Gill 48-14 LY. KU boat-raced at GT and now 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor. OSU, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN...Wolverines looking to break 0-11 spread run on Big Ten road that extends back early 2008 and Rich-Rod first season. First meeting vs. NU since late 2008 . Pat Fitzgerald just 6-11 vs. line since 2010 and just 2-3 last 5 as home dog, although he's 19-11 last 30 as dog. Slight to NU, based on extended trends.

EAST CAROLINA at HOUSTON...Cougs 7-4-1 vs. line last 11 at home (2-0 TY), and 5-1-1 last 7 laying DD at Robertson Stadium. Slight to UH, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...Paul Rhoads only 9-9 as dog at ISU since 2009. Bears 13-7 in chalk role since 2005 and Guy Morriss years. Slight to Baylor, based on recent chalk mark.

KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA...Revenge for Spurrier in what was Joker's best UK win by 31-28 count LY. Joker on 2-9 spread slide since mid 2010, and Cats have dropped 6 of last 7 vs. line away. SC, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at WAKE FOREST...Noles have won and covered handily the last two vs. Wake after Deacs had won previous three and covered previous five in series. Grobe 11-5 last 16 as Winston-Salem dog. Wake, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M at TEXAS TECH...A&M has won last two and covered last three in series. Ags have covered 7 of last 8 as Big XII visitor. A&M, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at KANSAS STATE...Mizzou on 5-game series win streak but visiting team has covered last three meetings. If Bill Snyder a dog note 10-5 mark in role since returning to KSU sidelines in 2009. KSU, based on Bill Snyder marks.

SYRACUSE at TULANE...Wave more like the undertow at Superdome, where Bob Toledo 3-15 vs. spread last 18 on board (0-2 TY). Syracuse, based on Tulane home woes.

WYOMING at UTAH STATE...Hard-luck team of year USU could easily be 4-0 SU instead of 1-3 right now. But Utags only 2-7 last 9 vs. line at Logan. Dave Christensen 10-2 as road dog at Wyo since 2009. Wyo, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at LSU...Gators 19-8 vs. spread last 27 away from Swamp. Gators had covered five straight in series prior to that 33-29 Tiger thriller LY. The Hat is only 9-22 vs. line last 31 at Baton Rouge. Florida, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at NEBRASKA...Tend to downplay the past excellent Tressel numbers especially on road where his teams were 25-9-1 vs. line last 35 entering this season, but laid an egg at Miami. Huskers, however, failed to cover first three at Lincoln TY and are just 13-20 vs. line at home since '07. Slight to OSU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at UCLA...Cougs 8-2 vs. line last 10 in series and Paul Wulff has covered 5 of last 7 on road. Slick Rick was 7-2 as chalk at UCLA, departure from poor numbers in role at previous career stops, before non-cover against SJSU. UCLA only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 at Rose Bowl. WSU, based on team trends.

TCU at SAN DIEGO STATE...TCU only 14-14 vs. line away since 2007, however. Aztecs 7-2 vs. line at home since LY. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at AKRON...FIU has won and covered last four and five of last six away from home. Zips now 9-21-1 last 31 vs. spread since late '08. FIU, based on team trends.

TROY at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL got the cover LY after Troy had covered previous five meetings. Ragin' Cajuns now on 7-3 spread uptick since late 2010, although they're only 1-6 vs. line last 7 at Cajun Field. Troy, based on series and team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at UL-MONROE...ULM had covered five straight in series prior to 34-20 loss at ASU LY. Red Wolves 4-1 vs. line TY. Slight to ASU, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NORTH TEXAS...UNT on a 3-game cover streak for Dan McCarney. Howard 3-11 vs. line last 14 on board and 2-5 vs. spread last seven as Sun Belt visitor.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:19 PM

News & Notes - Week 6

October 5, 2011

Week 6

Toledo was without starting RB Adonis Thomas but Morgan Williams rushed for 130 yards. TOL drove 10/3pl for a TD after a fumbled punt and 2 pt conv to go up 8-3. After an int the Rockets went 41/5pl for a TD, 15-3. They were up 22-13 at the half and despite being outFD'd 17-12 and outgained 318-305, they rolled to three 2H TD drives in a 36-13 win on the road...

Michigan had their most lopsided win since beating Indiana 58-0 in 2000. MarQueis Gray, the QB for Minnesota DNP and true frosh Max Shortell (1st start) hit 11-22-104 and had -16 yards rushing on 4 carries. In the 1H Mich had a 384-69 yd edge and the Gophers' first snap in Mich terr didn't happen until there was less than 1:00 left in the 3Q. Mich won The Little Brown Jug leading 38-0 at the half scoring on all six 1H poss...

Penn State let Indiana hang around blowing some scoring opportunities and IU had the ball down by 6 at the end. PSU finished with a 464-256 yd edge and once again Matt McGloin moved the team the best with Rob Bolden hitting 6-14-67 and McGloin 10-22-204. PSU had a TD called back on a hold an on 2&gl from the 15 and then had a pass tipped and int'd near the goal line. PSU later would go on a 66/12pl drive but from the 5 yd line settled for a 22 yd FG and despite a 242-105 yd edge at the half, the game was tied at 3. PSU settled for a 27 yd FG then went on a 12pl drive and fmbl'd at the IU2. PSU got a 74 yd TD pass from McGloin to Moye for some breathing room, 13-3 after 3Q's and drove 64/13pl and settled for a 32 yd FG, 16-3. IU converted on 4th down on a 77/14pl drive for a TD with 3:51 left and got the ball back with 2:06 left getting to the PSU40 with :02 left but their pass fell incomplete...

Kansas shockingly jumped out to a 20-0 lead vs Texas Tech with 191 yards and 3 TD's on their first 15 plays. Texas Tech survived that punch in the stomach and rolled to a 45-27 lead after 3Q's and finished with a 530-478 yd edge. KU got a TD with 3:30 left to close it to 45-34 but TT rec'd the onside kick and got to the KU11 with 2 FD's taking a knee. In the 1H Cincinnati had a 3-0 TO deficit and only led 6-0. In the 2H MU missed a 34 yd FG and UC got a 72 yd pass setting up a TD. Later they drove 80/12pl for a TD to lead 20-0 and then when a snap went over MU's P's head, UC fell on it for a TD to make it 27-0. UC was int'd in the EZ twice in the game and had a 398-264 yd edge...

For the 2nd straight week Syracuse's game came down to a replay at the end. In the 2nd OT SU fumbled. The replay appeared to show the RB was down but another showed the ball came out so it was inconclusive and SU's fumble which was ruled rec'd by Rutgers, ended the game. Rutgers had missed a chance to win the game in regulation missing a 44 yd FG. At the half, RU had 13-2 FD and 187-88 yd edges yet trailed 7-3 as SU had a 65 yd FR TD. RU had a 23-13 FD edge but only a 302-295 yd edge...

Montel Harris returned to Boston College's lineup and rushed for 108 yards becoming the school's all-time leading rusher topping Derrick Knight (2003). Still, Wake Forest finished with a 392-336 yd edge and never trailed. They scored a TD on their opening poss and led 17-9 at the half. Harris fumbled at the WF10 trailing 26-9 and BC was int'd at the 2 with 4:59 left in the 3Q. BC got a TD with 13:05 left and settled for a 32 yd FG with 6:00 left to pull within 24-19. WF got a 22 yd FG with 2:59 left and BC on 4&4 at the WF45 was SOD with 1:43 left...

Illinois is 5-0 for the first time since 1951...

Georgia dominated Mississippi State more than the final score as they had 20-13 FD and 315-213 yd edges. Isaiah Crowell topped 100 yards rushing for the 3rd time in 3 SEC games. MSU's only score came on a 72 yd IR TD with 9:10 left in the 4Q as UGA was looking to add to a 24-3 lead. UGA was int'd at the MSU20 but still led 21-3 at the half. UGA had a bad snap on a 22 yd FG and was tkl'd for a 12 yd loss, settled for a 27 yd FG, was int'd at the MSU29 and missed a 47 yd FG in their 14 pt win...

Michigan State entered the game vs Ohio State #1 in the country in total D (172 ypg) and finished with a 321-178 yd edge. In fact, OSU's only score came with :10 left in the game with Joe Bauserman at QB. Braxton Miller hit 5-10-56. MSU ended a 7 game losing skid to the Buckeyes. The Spartans scored a TD on their 2nd poss on a 65/6pl drive for a 7-0 lead which they never relinquished. OSU was int'd at the MSU6 but MSU had a 170-87 yd edge at the half. MSU had a 3rd & gl at the 6 and was int'd in the EZ early 4Q but with the score 10-0 OSU punted with 8:52 left, punted on 4&13 from its own 4 with 5:31 left, was SOD on 4&10 at the MSU43 with 3:06 left then took over with 1:51 left and went 62/6pl for a TD with :10 left in the 10-7 final...

Virginia blew numerous opportunities in the 1H. They had 496-296 yd and 27-12 FD edges for the game but they let Idaho stay in the game and almost lost. In the 1H UVA went on consecutive drives of 67 and 73 yds for TD's to lead 14-0. UVA was int'd at the UI20, fmbl'd at the UI43 and fmbl'd at their own 26 and despite a 277-147 yd edge, only led 14-6 at the half. At the end of the half, UVA's QB Rocco took off on a run and was tkl'd at the 10 but they ran out of time. UVA had a 41 yd FG blk'd, missed a 36 yd FG and IU blk'd a punt for a TD with 3:11 left and the 2 pt conv tied it. In OT each team scored a TD but UI went for 2 and their pass was incomplete...

QB Teddy Bridgewater made his first start for Louisville and had a couple of key int's in the 2H. In the 1H Bridgewater hit a 41 yd TD pass with :33 left in the half to give UL a 13-7 lead and the Cards had a 167-130 yd edge. Marshall went on an 85/13pl drive but had a 19 yd FG blk'd. UL went on a 9pl drive and missed a 47 yd FG. Marshall went on a 62/7pl drive settling for a 24 yd FG and only trailed 13-10. UL was int'd at their own 30 with 4:32 left and MU went 30/5pl for a TD with 1:49 left for the lead. UL got to the MU45 but Bridgewater was int'd at the 37 and MU got 1 FD and took a knee for the upset...

The talk all week was how Baylor QB Robert Griffin had thrown more TD passes than incompletions. Well, he had 3 TD passes and 8 incompletions vs Kansas State and his first int of the year. KSU trailed 35-26 in the 4Q but he threw an int on the 2nd last drive of the game and his 4th & 2 pass fell incomplete at the end and KSU got the home win, 36-35 to move to 4-0. Baylor actually came in ranked #15 in the country and were an away favorite for the first time since last year in Wk4...

West Virginia was off a loss and their O-line opened up some big holes. Dustin Garrison rushed for 233 yards at the half and 291 for the game. WV finished with 643-217 yd and 30-14 FD edges. WV led 38-10 at the half and scored TD's on their first 3 poss of the 2H to lead 55-10 in the rout over Bowling Green...

Auburn had 358-289 yd and 22-13 FD edges vs South Carolina who was playing with double revenge. Stephen Garcia tossed a couple more int's hitting just 9-23 passes. AU took over with 5:27 left trailing 13-9 and went 57/12pl. They got a 9 yd TD pass to Philip Lutzenkirchen with 1:38 left and then SC got to the AU30 and thought they had :01 left but ran out of time...

Northwestern got Dan Persa back in the lineup and appeared headed for an upset of Illinois. They led 28-10 midway thru the 3Q. Persa hit 10-14-123 but threw for 4 TD's. Illinois went 74 and 58 yards for TD's to get back within 28-23 and Persa was injured. Illinois took the lead 31-28 but fumbled at their own 36 and Northwestern got a TD with 1:15 left to appear to pull out the win. IL went 69/7pl and with just :13 left Scheelhaase's 1 yd TD run gave IL the come from behind win...

Florida International had a 568-384 yd edge vs Duke. It was tied at 17 at the half when FIU got a FG and a TD to lead 27-17 with 13:30 left. Duke got a TD with 11:56 left to pull within 3 then Panthers QB Carroll on 2&8 had the ball slip out of his hands and Duke rec'd at the 9. Duke got a 9 yd TD run by Thompson with 6:52 left on the next play to take a 31-27 lead. FIU got to the Duke12 but on 4&10 fired incomplete in the EZ with 2:29 left...

Louisiana Tech-Hawaii was blown open in the middle of the 3Q as UH got 2 defensive TD's in a :04 span. Leading 20-13, UH went 65/10pl getting a TD with 9:29 left in the 3Q to lead 27-13. LT got to midfield but was int'd and ret'd 49 yards for a TD. LT then fmbl'd the KO and UH ret'd it 12 yards for a TD and it was 41-13. UH finished with a 494-368 yd edge...

It was Turnovers=Turnaround for Utah which came in +9 in TO's but were -4 in TO's. Washington led 17-7 when Utah QB Jordan Wynn came out with injury. Backup QB Hays' first pass was int'd and UW went 52/4pl for a TD. The Huskies led 31-7 and on 4&21 just ran the ball for 3 yards with 2:29 left. Utah would go 62/10pl and got a garbage TD with :07 left as another outright winner for our Underdog Play of the Week...

Texas delivered a dominating win leading 34-0 at the half and gave up two 4Q TD's. The Longhorns have now won 2 straight on the road vs teams that beat them in Austin last year. It was billed as one of the biggest HG's in recent memory for Iowa St but Texas dominated and Iowa State had 86 and 63 yd drives for TD's in the 4Q to make the stats a bit misleading as they show UT only had a 400-380 yd edge and ISU had a 26-19 FD edge. TO's were a factor but the bottom line is UT got its revenge...

Ohio did have a commanding 391-217 yd edge vs Kent State and 22-14 FD edge. They survived a blk'd FG and a blk'd punt in the 1H and KSU's only TD came on a 21 yd drive for a TD after recovering a fumble. OU led 10-7 at the half but had a 220-80 yd edge. OU extended it to 17-7. KSU got a 31 yd FG with 5:42 left to pull within 7 and OU punted 34 yds to the 1 with 2:00 left and KSU was SOD at their own 8...

Western Kentucky nearly ended the nation's longest home losing streak which was 18. They did lead 14-10 but Arkansas State rallied for a 19-14 lead with 11:12 left. WKU got a 42 yd TD pass with 10:03 left to go up 22-19 and ASU missed the game tying FG from 44 yards with 5:51 left. WKU got 2 FD's and then went for the win on 4&1 at the ASU32 and were SOD with 2:39 left. ASU went 66/9pl and got a TD with :36 left and escaped...

Western Michigan was up 14-0 in the 2Q and UConn did not cross midfield until 6:00 remained in the 2Q on a 60 yd run. WM led 17-7 at the half. WM fumbled on consec poss and Conn took its first lead with 12:40 left on a TD. The score was 17-17 after 3Q's. The two teams combined for 35 points in the 4Q. WM retook the lead, 31-24 with 5:53 left but UC on 4&5 got a 26 yd TD pass to tie. WM got a 41 yd TD pass where the WR grabbed the ball over the DB's head for a TD with 1:35 left and UC threw a deep pass but fmbl'd at the WM13 with :45 left...

TCU's 22 game home streak was snapped and SMU actually led throughout the game blowing a 16 point 4Q lead but won it in OT. SMU had a 461-454 yd edge. TCU dropped out of the AP Top 25 for the first time in 46 weeks...

Trent Richardson took another positive step towards the Heisman with 181 YDS rushing (incl 2 TD's) and another 27 yards rec. Alabama has outscored Florida 101-29 in their 3 meetings. UF actually got a 65 yd TD pass on their first offensive play and the game was tied at 10 after 1Q but Bama led 24-10 at the half. UF QB Brantley was inj'd in the final seconds of the 1H and missed the 2H but Bama finished with 21-9 FD and 366-222 yd edges in the 38-10 win.

Washington State had a 455-336 yd edge vs Colorado and 28-20 FD edge. The Cougars were int'd at the CU28, SOD at the CU44 and trailed 13-10 at the half despite a 220-122 yd edge. CU led 20-17 when they got the apparent game clinching TD with 5:11 left, 27-17 but WSU got a TD 7pl later with 2:35 left with all 3 timeouts left, they kicked off deep and forced a punt with 2:03 left and got a 63 yd TD pass with 1:10 left for the lead. CU got a 24 yd pass but Richardson fumbled at the end at the WSU38...

Southern Mississippi was even more dominant than the 48-24 score but surprisingly they trailed 24-20 mid3Q. SM had a 654-229 yd edge and 33-15 FD edge for the game. Rice scored when SM fmbl'd the KO and Rice ret'd it 17 yds for a TD, 14-13. SM got a 75 yd FR TD in the 2Q and led 20-17 at the half. SM went on a 76/10pl drive and on 4&1 at the Rice4 they fumbled and Rice ret'd it 96 yds for a TD and stunningly led 24-20. SM was int'd on their next drive but scored TD's on drives of 44, 75 and 63 yds on their next 3 poss to lead 41-24. Rice had a 4&gl at the 6 but they were SOD with 10:20 left and 2 poss later SM went 94/7pl and got a 23 yd TD pass with 3:13 left.

D´EJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

Texas A&M had another dominating 1H leading 35-17 with a 404-271 yd edge. Once again they had another poor 2H and Arkansas would rally for the win. The Hogs got a TD with 1:41 left to take their first lead of the game, 42-38 and A&M on 4&2 from their own 39 was SOD. Tyler Wilson threw for a school record 510 yards. A&M Christine Michael ran for 230 yards and 3 TD's and A&M which is joining the SEC fell to 0-6 vs the SEC since 1996. WR Wright broke the school receiving record at 204 yards by half and finished with 281 on 13 catches. A&M had 628-581 yd and 30-28 FD edges.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

Jordan Jefferson's susp was lifted and he was called on for a 4th & gl at the 1 QB sneak and a TD early vs Kentucky. Morgan Newton missed on his first 9 throws hitting 2-11 passes in the 1H and was sacked 3 times. LSU had a 201-45 yard edge at the half and took a 35-0 lead with 10:39 left in the game. Kentucky would go 70/12pl getting a TD with 4:22 left for the backdoor cover and did end the game at the LSU28. The game started at 11:21 am and everyone knows LSU is not as ferocious during the day at Tiger Stadium...

Matt Barkley passed for a school record 468 yards and 4 TD's. Arizona compiled a 37-26 FD edge and USC had a 582-554 yd edge but this one appeared put away for USC as they led 34-12 in the 3Q. It was 48-34 when USC went for it on 4&1 at the UA37 with 1:51 left. UA stopped them and went 53/5pl getting the backdoor cover with 1:00 left on a 4 yd TD pass...

Boise State was playing with revenge vs Nevada after the Pack had ended their perfect season the previous year. BSU's D was the key factor as BSU finished with a 329-182 yd edge and a 22-12 FD edge. Cody Fajardo had been splitting snaps with Tyler Lantrip was recovering from a shoulder injury and DNP. BSU only led 20-0 at half but had a 187-54 yd edge. Nevada did not cross their own 38 yd line until 8:23 was left in the 3Q and it happened on a 31 yd KR and NV at that point led 30-0. NV got a 21 yd FG with 14:48 left to make it 30-3. BSU was SOD on 4&2 at the NV29 with 1:39 left and NV got a FD then a 53 yd TD pass with :46 left to only lose by 20...

N.C. State had a banged up D missing 6 starters and Georgia Tech surprisingly only had a 413-387 yd edge but did score on their first 3 poss to lead 21-0 but it was just 21-14 late 3Q. GT got a TD with 12:29 left then got a 34 yd IR TD and NCSt was SOD on 4&1 at its own 38. GT got a 38 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 42-14. Trailing 45-21 NCSt got a TD with :34 left on a 13 yd pass. GT backup QB Days fmbl'd and NCSt ret'd it 33 yards for a TD with :20 left for the backdoor push...

Air Force led 21-3 at the half and it was just 21-10 after 3Q's. Each team got an early 4Q TD and the game appeared well on its way to an Under at 28-17 still being able to allow a TD. With just 2:04 left in the game Navy completed a 73/16pl drive incl a key 4th down conversion and got a 37 yd FG. They then rec'd an onside kick and then went 59/7pl for a TD & the 2 pt conv forced OT and put the game Over the Total with :19 left. In OT QB Proctor scored a TD and said something to an AF player and was called for a 15 yd pen which moved them back on the xp and the xp was blocked and AF after their TD kicked a regular xp and won it...

Eastern Michigan had some poor punts of 19, 22 and 20 yards which kept Akron in the game. EM went 50/9 and 84/9pl for TD's, 14-0 but only led 17-10 at the half. EM rushed for 328 yards on 56 carries only passing 9 times. EM led 31-16 when UA converted on 4&2 and then got a TD 2pl later with 3:18 left for the backdoor cover, 31-23. EM only got off a 20 yd punt and UA got to the EM30 down by a TD and 2 pt conv but on 4&14 fired incomplete with 1:01 left.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2011, 07:24 PM

Games to Watch - Week 6

October 5, 2011

Saturday - Oklahoma vs. Texas from Dallas (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Oklahoma (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 56 ½. The Sooners trashed Ball St. 62-6 Saturday to improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit favorites. They are led by junior quarterback Landry Jones, who has 1,447 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through four games. He has one of the nation's elite WRs in Ryan Broyles, who has 38 catches for 476 yards and six touchdowns. Texas (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is trying to bounce back from a nightmare 2010 season and is on its way thanks to rushing for better than 200 yards per game to date. The Longhorns have cruised to easy road wins at UCLA (49-20) and at Iowa St. (37-14) their last two times out. OU won last year's Red Rivalry showdown by a 28-20 count, but Texas has a 4-1-1 spread record in the last six head-to-head meetings with the Sooners. Mack Brown's team has been an underdog five times since 2009, limping to an abysmal 1-4 spread record. Texas senior safety Christian Scott will be in street clothes against OU after injuring his wrist against the Cyclones.

Saturday - Michigan at Northwestern (Big 10 Network, 7:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday, Michigan (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) was favored by seven with a total of 59. Brady Hoke's squad is coming off a dominant performance in its Big Ten opener. The Wolverines trounced Minnesota 58-0 as a 21-point home favorite. Denard Robinson completed 15-of-19 passes for 169 yards and a pair of TDs without being intercepted. Robinson also rushed for 51 yards and one score. Northwestern (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) raced out to an 18-point lead at Illinois thanks to four TD passes from QB Dan Persa, who was making his season debut. However, Persa's Achilles began to act up and he pulled himself from the game. Without their star signal caller, the Wildcats gave up the big lead and lost 38-35. They nevertheless took the cash as 10-point road underdogs. Persa was 'probable' early in the week, but RB Mike Trumpy is 'out' after tearing his ACL against the Illini. As a home underdog during Pat Fitzgerald's tenure, NW is 7-6 ATS. The 'under' has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these schools, while the Wildcats have taken the cash in the last three encounters.

Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

Missouri at Kansas State - Missouri (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) was favored by three and the total was 55 1/2 as of Wednesday. The Tigers have had two weeks to prep for Kansas St. (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) after losing 38-28 at Oklahoma. They have covered the spread in both previous road games, an overtime loss at Arizona St and the setback at OU. James Franklin, Mizzou's sophomore QB, has filled in admirably for Blaine Gabbert in his first year as the starter. Franklin has seven TD passes compared to only one interception. K-St. rallied from a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baylor 36-35 as a 3 ½-point home underdog Saturday. QB Collin Klein threw for 146 yards and two TDs and also rushed for 113 yards and one score. The Wildcats own a 7-3 spread record in their last 10 games as home 'dogs on Bill Snyder's watch. Gary Pinkel's team has won five in a row over K-St, going 3-2 ATS in the process.

Miami at Virginia Tech - Va. Tech (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) is coming off a 23-3 home loss to Clemson as a seven-point 'chalk.' Once again, Frank Beamer's team has been tabbed as a seven-point home favorite. The Hokies are struggling offensively, resulting in four straight 'unders.' Tyrod Taylor's replacement under center, Logan Thomas, has more interceptions (five) than TD passes (four). Miami (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is mired in a 3-10 ATS slide dating back to last year. Va. Tech has won six of the last eight meetings with UM. Even better, they are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 encounters with the Hurricanes. The 'under' is 7-1 in the last eight VT-UM matchups.

Auburn at Arkansas - Most books had Arkansas (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a 10-point 'chalk' with a total of 63 on Wednesday morning. Auburn (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) is plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300). Gene Chizik's squad is coming off a 16-13 win at South Carolina as 10-point underdog. The win improved AU to 2-0 in SEC play. Arkansas rallied from a 35-17 halftime deficit to beat Texas A&M, 42-38. The Razorbacks, 2 ½-point 'dogs at most spots, have won three in a row over the Aggies at Cowboys Stadium. Tyler Wilson threw for a career-high 510 yards and three TDs without being picked off. Bobby Petrino's team has injury concerns on the defensive line, as DE Tenarius Wright is 'out' and DT Robert Thomas is 'questionable.' Senior DE Jake Bequette, who has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury, is expected to be back in the starting lineup. On the injury front for AU, WR Trovon Reed is 'out' and WR Emory Blake (19 catches, 4 TDs) is 'doubtful.' Arkansas has won two of the last three against AU both SU and ATS, but the Tigers won a 65-43 shoot-out last season. The 'over' has hit in the last three meetings.

Ohio State at Nebraska - This was supposed to be the game when Ohio St. (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) would return several key players like RB Daniel Herron and WR DeVier Posey, but both were suspended again this week for new NCAA issues. The Buckeyes have been anemic offensively in both of their losses, scoring just six at Miami and seven in last week's 10-7 home loss to Michigan St. Nebraska (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) is coming off its first loss, a 48-17 defeat at Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers, favored by 11 on Wednesday morning, are 9-14 ATS as home favorites during Bo Pelini's four-year tenure.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2011, 05:27 PM

Oregon favored big over Cal on Thursday

CALIFORNIA BEARS (3-1)
at OREGON DUCKS (3-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -24, Total: 64.5

The No. 9 Oregon Ducks aim for their 19th straight home win when they host California on Thursday night.

The Bears came very close to knocking off Oregon last year, losing 15-13 in a game that was much closer (and much more low scoring) than anybody expected. Cal is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but that one loss was a 42-3 crushing in Eugene. The Bears defense has been better than expected (314 YPG, 27th in FBS), but Oregon has averaged an astounding 60.3 PPG during its three-game win streak. Cal is historically a miserable road team, going 8-19 ATS (30%) away from home since 2007, including 1-7 ATS in the last eight away games. The Bears have also lost eight straight games when facing a top-10 team. The pick here is OREGON to win and cover the heavy point spread.

The FoxSheets show a four-star trend siding with the Ducks:

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (36-9 since 1992.) (80%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*).

In Cal’s last game two weeks ago at Washington, QB Zach Maynard (a transfer from Buffalo) threw for a career-best 349 yards and one TD. That was the first time he hasn’t thrown for multiple scores in a game, as he now has 10 TD and 3 INT on the season. His favorite target has been explosive sophomore WR Keenan Allen who already has three 100-yard efforts including 197 at Washington. Junior RB Isi Sofele is also having a huge year, with at least 84 rushing yards in all four games this season. He has 380 yards (4.8 YPC) and four touchdowns on the season. The Bears defense will have their hands full with Oregon’s high-octane offense, but they have been playing at a high level all season, ranking ninth in the nation in both sacks (3.25 per game) and rushing defense (78 YPG).

LaMichael James rushed for a school-record 288 yards and 2 TD against Arizona in his last game, but Cal held him to 91 yards on 29 carries last year (3.1 YPC). His 105 rushing YPG and 4.2 YPC average in his career versus the Bears are the lowest numbers against any Pac-12 school. QB Darron Thomas also struggled at Cal last year (15-of-29 passing, 2.1 YPC), but he has been on fire over the past three games, throwing 11 touchdowns with no picks. Oregon is tied for the nation’s lead in fewest sacks allowed per game (0.25), giving up just one sack in four contests. On defense, the Ducks still need a lot of work. They have allowed 30.3 PPG to their three FBS opponents and rank 93rd in the nation against the run (181 YPG). In terms of special teams, James leads the nation with a ridiculous 22.8 average on punt returns, but the team ranks 106th in kick returns (18.8 avg).

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The Bum's CFB Week # 6 Best Bets 10/6-10/8 !

The Bum's CFB Week # 6 Best Bets 10/6-10/8 !

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