The Bum's NFL Week # 4 Best Bets !

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Gridiron Trends - Week 4

September 30, 2011

NFL ATS PLAY ON TREND:

The Bills are 12-0-1 ATS ( ppg) in database history after a game where they had at least 24 first downs but trailed by double digits at halftime.

NFL ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Saints are 0-12 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since September 12, 1993 when they scored at least 10 points more than expected against an AFC team last game.


NFL OU TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Vikings are 0-11 OU (-8.4 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite on grass after playing at home.


NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2) ppg since 2002 when they were a FG+ favorite last week, as long as they did not win by 14-plus points.


NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

TCU is 10-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) in the regular season, when they scored 49+ points last game .


NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

Texas Tech is 0-11 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since January 2006 when they won by a TD or less last game or lost by a point, if the total is under 73.

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Total Talk - Week 4

October 1, 2011

Week 3 Recap

Finally the NFL saw some low-scoring games, which was to the liking of the sportsbooks. Through the first two weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ posted a 21-8-3 (72%) mark. In Week 3, that number was tempered a bit with the ‘under’ going 10-6. Helping the cause were five games that saw less than 30 combined points posted. Despite the pendulum swinging the other way last week, we still had six teams bust the 30-point barrier. After three installments, the ‘over’ stands at 27-18-3 (60%).

Expert Opinion

Consider this a shameless plug or advice from the hottest NFL handicapper on VI, Brian Edwards (14-3-2, 82%). Included in that ridiculous record is a 6-1 (86%) mark in total plays. What’s the secret behind his success?

He explained, “I don’t approach totals any differently than sides. I make my numbers on Sunday and whether it’s a side or a total, I’m looking for game in which the number I make is different than the actual line by three points or more. For instance, I gave Seattle-Atlanta a total of 42, but the number as of Thursday afternoon was 38 ½ or 39. I think the number reflects an overreaction to a pair of grinder games played by both teams last week (Falcons lost 16-13 at Tampa Bay and Seattle beat Arizona, 13-10). Before the loss to the Bucs, Atlanta gave up 65 combined points in its first two games against Chicago and Philadelphia.”

Bettors should make a note that Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 this season and it could easily be 3-0 if the 49ers’ Ted Ginn Jr. didn’t put on a show late in Week 1. And it could be tough backing the ‘Hawks, since they’ve scored a total of six points in the first half of their three games this season.

Edwards added, “I like the ‘over’ for Pittsburgh-Houston because my number (49) is four points different from the actual line (45). In this contest, gamblers know that Houston’s offense and Pittsburgh’s defense are both very good. We know the Steelers are good offensively, sometimes very good, but they have been plagued by turnovers so far this season. We saw the Texans’ defense look good against Indy and Miami, but do we throw those performances out the window since the Dolphins and Colts aren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders offensively? The Saints scored 40 points on Houston last week, but 23 of those New Orleans points came in the fourth quarter. I concluded that Houston is going to have its moments against Pittsburgh’s defense, and I think the Steelers are capable of producing big numbers against a Texans’ defense that still has plenty to prove.”

Even though Houston is averaging 30 points per game, you could make an argument that the team isn’t clicking on all cylinders. The Texans have scored 18 times this season, with nine touchdowns and nine field goals. Here’s the telling stat – seven of those kicks were between 20 and 29 yards. If this unit ever got its red zone going, look out.

Non-Divisional Battles – Round 2


Just like Week 2, all 16 games on tap will be non-divisional. What does that mean? You can definitely argue the unfamiliarity angle, right? And most would believe that favors the offense. The ‘over’ went 10-5-1 in the second week of the season and that was aided by some second-half explosions.

A disciplined gambler might tell you to pull back a little bit on this week’s card due to the uncertainty but who are we kidding. If you’re reading this, you’re betting on Sunday and hopefully winning too. With that being said, seven of the 16 games this week will feature rematches from last year. And get this -- five of those contests went ‘over’ the number.

Detroit at Dallas: Cowboys beat the Lions 35-19 last year, with a total of 47 1/2, but the score was only 10-7 at halftime. The number is down a point (46.5) this week due to the ‘Boys injuries on offense and the fact that Detroit’s defense isn’t too bad.

San Francisco at Philadelphia: This pair has met three straight seasons in a row and two of those went ‘over’ the number, including the Eagles’ 27-24 win last year from the Bay Area. The total is 44 and the Birds have averaged 33 PPG in their last four games against the 49ers since 2006.

Washington at St. Louis: The Rams ripped the Redskins 30-16 last season in a game that featured six field goals, something Washington and St. Louis are familiar with this year. The ‘over/under’ is sitting at 43, which says a lot considering St. Louis has scored 13, 16 and 7 points in three games.

Buffalo at Cincinnati: Buffalo blasted Cincinnati 49-31 on the road last season in a game the Bengals led 28-7 late in the second quarter. This year’s Bengals might have trouble putting up 31 in two games, yet alone one. However, Buffalo has been on a role, cashing the ‘over’ in all three of its games this season. The number is hovering around 43 points.

Carolina at Chicago: This one was ugly last year, with Chicago posting a 23-6 victory at home without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears have faced Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers so far. Something tells me that they’re happy to see Cam Newton, who proved that he is indeed a rookie in last week’s tight win over Jacksonville.

Atlanta at Seattle: Edwards talked about this game above and was confused by the line (38.5). Last year, the Falcons blasted the Seahawks 34-18, as the combined 54 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46 ½. The Week 4 number is a little lower but still higher than the 2010 spread.

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: See Below

Under the Lights

After three weeks of action and eight primetime games, the ‘over’ owns a 6-1-1 record. Last week, gamblers watched the first ‘under’ cash when the Cowboys and Redskins (18-16) fell ‘under’ the closing total of 45. Don’t be surprised to see the ‘under’ streak continue, especially with the upcoming matchups.

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: The Ravens nipped the Jets 10-9 in Week 1 of the 2010 regular season, which never threatened the closing total of 36 points. This week’s total is hovering around 42 points. Baltimore has watched all three of its games go ‘over’ while the Jets own a 2-1 mark, thanks to an offense averaging 27.6 PPG. The Ravens gave up 26 points to the Titans in Week 2 but only a combined 14 points in their other two outings, both wins as well.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: The Colts and Buccaneers both have 2-1 records to the ‘over’ but those numbers could easily be 1-2, even 0-3 each way. Indianapolis posted 20 last week against Pittsburgh, seven coming from its defense. The Bucs’ defense showed some fight last week in their win over Atlanta (16-13). The total opened at 42 and has been dropping quickly. Curtis Painter will be the starting QB for Indy, which could be a good thing for the Colts, at least in terms of familiarity.

Fearless Predictions

So who thought it was a great idea to put up team total selections this season? After starting 0-2 (-220) in two weeks, maybe I should’ve reconsidered. Despite another TT loss, the Best Bets went 2-0 and we drilled another Three-Team Teaser, points not needed either. With all bets based on one-unit, the deficit stands at minus $40. Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New York-Arizona 44.5

Best Under: Chicago-Carolina 42.5

Best Team Total: Under Buffalo 23.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Giants-Cardinals 35.5
Over Steelers-Texans 35.5
Under Cowboys-Lions 55.5

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NFL Underdogs: Week 4 pointspread picks

No one envies coaches in professional sports. You’re hired to be fired no matter how many championships you win. Just ask Terry Francona.

It doesn’t matter if you’ve got Belichick’s brain and Cowher’s chin. Ultimately, if the players aren’t on board, the organization is going to make the head coach walk the plank.

So how do the good ones keep egomaniac, millionaire athletes motivated? Where do they find bulletin board material for each game? And do they practice their shocked reaction after the Gatorade tub spills onto their shoulders, because that shit looks rehearsed.

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who needs to find ways to inspire his troops, but oddsmakers gave him a freebie this week when they made the Steelers 3.5-point underdogs at Houston.

The NFL likes to distance itself from the betting world, but the players and coaches know what this line means. Home field is worth three points in pro football, which means the Texans would be slight favorites against Pittsburgh on a neutral field.

That’s right, the Texans. A team that’s never had a winning season and coughed up a 9-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Saints last week is giving more than a field goal to the defending AFC champions.

Look, I get it that bettors are hesitant to back the Yellow and Black. They got their asses handed to them by the Ravens and came nowhere close to covering against the Colts. But this is the Steelers were talking about - the same club that’s won 67 percent of its regular season and playoff games under Tomlin and is 104-84-5 against the spread since 2000.

Pittsburgh is a proven commodity and Houston is still a volatile stock.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Houston Texans

Did you know the Steelers have 10 turnovers and one takeaway? Yeah, that’s a big part of the reason Pittsburgh’s looked so awful this season. Expect Ben Roethlisberger, who’s responsible for eight of those TOs, to take better care of the ball and the Steelers’ defense harass Matt Schaub and Co. into making some costly mistakes.

Pick: Steelers

Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Remember how we were all worried for Tony Romo’s insides against the Redskins last week? Well, to paraphrase Hulk Hogan, whatcha gonna do when Ndamukong Suh runs wild on you?

I think Tony Ro-Ro is in big trouble even if he’s been saying his prayers and taking his vitamins.

Pick: Lions

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears will be the toughest test yet for super rookie Cam Newton. Chicago’s offense is uglier than Rosie O’Donnell but its defense is still as good or better than anybody else in the league.

Of course, nobody knows Chicago’s defense better than Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. The former Bears defensive coordinator knows how best to attack Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 scheme.

Pick: Panthers

Denver Broncos (+12.5) at Green Bay Packers

It would have been nice to grab Denver at +13 or 13.5 earlier in the week but this is still a generous spread.

The Packers are coasting right now. There’s a large gulf in talent between them and their opponents every time they take the field, but they don’t step on the jugular like the Patriots. Green Bay is 0-3 ATS in its last three games as a double-digit favorite.

Denver loses this game but keeps it respectable.

Pick: Broncos

Last week: 2-1
Season record: 5-4

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Where the action is: NFL Week 4 lines moves

Action throughout the week has the NFL Week 5 lines dancing like Chaz Bono. We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook supervisor for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into Sunday:

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: 47, Move: 44.5

The total for this southern showdown is tumbling with money flooding in on the under. Rood believes this number could come back up a bit with public action liking to wager on the over.

“New Orleans may be a bit more conservative on the road,” he says, and Jacksonville really only has one option in Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars best unit is their defensive unit.”

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns – Open: Browns -1, Move Browns +1

This spread has flipped, making Cleveland a slight underdog against Tennessee. Rood believes the move has more to do with bettors fading the Browns than liking the Titans.

“Cleveland keeps playing tough and bettors keep going against them,” he says.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: Pick, Move: Chiefs +3

Rood says he’s currently dealing 2.5 for this game, but could see the line moving to -3 Vikings. With the majority of money on Minnesota, he’ll be cheering for Kansas City to come through at home Sunday.

“We’re hoping KC can pull off one of those second-half comebacks that everyone else has done against the Vikings,” he says.

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams – Open: Rams -2, Move Rams +2.5

One-sided money on the Redskins has flipped this spread heading into the weekend. Bettors seem to be discounting St. Louis after a poor showing against Baltimore last week. However, Rood reminds them that Washington is playing back-to-back road games after a tough loss in Dallas Monday.

“We’re going to be big on the Rams winning,” Rood says. “I think that is going to be an ongoing theme for the rest of the season.”

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks +6.5, Move: Seahawks +4.5

Maybe it’s the Seahawks’ home-field edge or the Falcons’ poor start to the season, but sharps bought the home side earlier in the week. The public is still expecting a turnaround from Atlanta, but Rood isn’t so sure.

“Seattle is in the process of getting all the new guys to come together,” he says. “Jackson and Rice looked good last week. And they have that great home advantage.”

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders – Open: 52.5, Move 55

Rood says one-sided money on the over is driving this tall total through the roof. New England’s high-powered offense is the biggest case for the over, but so is Oakland’s explosive rushing attack that can break big gains off with Darren McFadden. Rood may even add on a half point, just to see if he can draw money on the under.

“We have a little more room to play with when the totals are this high,” says Rood. “We can move a lot more freely than if we were dealing with a 35 or something.”

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NFL Week 4's biggest betting mismatches

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (PK, 39)

Titans pass defense vs. Browns pass offense

Tennessee’s top-ranked defense (261.0 ypg) has surprised many this year. The Titans haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game and they’re pretty salty against the pass, ranking second in the league with an average of 172.0 yards allowed a game.

Cleveland is barely averaging more than 200 yards passing per outing. Colt McCoy hasn’t topped 213 yards in any game this season and has a 54.1 completion percentage.

The Browns are averaging 5.7 yards per passing attempt. Pat Shurmur wants the ball out of McCoy’s hands as quickly as possible to avoid sacks. All this adds up to Peyton Hills and Benjamin Watson being the team’s leading receivers with 10 catches apiece.

The Titans have an emerging secondary that should shine Sunday. Third-year corner Jason McCourty is coming into his own and Cortland Finnegan looks like his old self after a down season in 2010.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 44)

Niners front seven vs. Eagles offensive line

The state of the Eagles offensive line has reached Code Red. Mike Vick said the only way he was coming out of a game was on a stretcher. Unfortunately, that might happen sooner than later.

San Francisco’s secondary is suspect but the team is tied for sixth in opponent completion percentage at 57.1. That speaks volumes about the pressure being generated up front.

The Niners’ eight takeaways and plus-6 turnover differential are tied for tops in the NFC. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are quickly becoming the NFL’s best interior linebacker tandem and they can blitz from anywhere on the field.

Philadelphia will want to run the ball more to protect Vick. The Eagles are second in the league in rushing but the 49ers run defense has allowed just 62.7 yards per game thus far.

And don’t worry about the 49ers traveling across the country in back-to-back weeks. They spent the week in Youngstown, Ohio, adjusting to the Eastern Time zone.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6, 43.5)

Panthers’ motivation vs. Bears’ motivation

Turmoil is brewing again early in Chicago. There is already a sense of desperation but the motivation edge in this matchup favors the visitor.

Ron Rivera coached for the Bears under Dave Wannstedt for two seasons and then Lovie Smith from 2004-2006. He was also drafted by the Bears and played on the 1985 Super Bowl team.

“I’m not going to downplay it. People say it’s just another game. No, it’s not,” Rivera said about the matchup. “They’re all big, but this has a little personal meaning for me because it’s Chicago.”

Rivera knows Smith’s tendencies and vice versa. But since Rivera has been gone for so long he should have the advantage.

Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo, who has come under heavy scrutiny recently, traded Greg Olsen to the Panthers before the season started.

“To say this game doesn’t light your fire a little more with everything that happened would be a lie,” Olsen said.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 42)

Shonn Greene/LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Ravens rush defense

Rex Ryan isn’t even attempting to hide the fact that the Jets won’t be able to run on Baltimore Sunday night.

“Are you going to run it against Haloti Ngata over and over and against Ray Lewis? We’ll probably have to throw it more than we want,” he said.

After saying that Shonn Greene was going to get 300-plus carries this year, New York has somehow transformed into a pass-first team. The Jets have thrown the ball 62 percent of their snaps so far, which is more than any three-game stretch since Ryan took over.

Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have combined for 196 yards on 58 attempts this year, equating to 3.4 yards per carry. It looks like there’s a good chance rookie Colin Baxter will start at center again for Nick Mangold.

“Anytime we make you one-dimensional, then we can pretty much get after your quarterback the way we dictated," Ray Lewis said. "We really pride ourselves on stopping the run.”

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Total Bias: NFL Week 4 over/under picks

Really, Mike Vick? Really?

You’re an NFL quarterback – a position in which you hold the football more than anyone else – and are whining because people are hitting you too hard? Really?

You signed a $100-million contract in the offseason and star for the league’s “Dream Team” and you’re going to be the guy who’s whining about the officials?

Really, Mike Vick? Really? You’re going to be Phil Jackson begging for calls now?

I didn’t want to get into this, but you’re better than this, Mike. All this garbage brings me back to the old days, the days in which you were fodder for one of my favorite SNL skits of all time.


Maybe I’m being a little hard on the guy for the public bitchfest that he put on at the podium after getting banged up in last week’s loss, but enough is enough already. Maybe every call doesn’t go his way, but he’s still a quarterback who thrives because of his threat to run the football – he’s going to get hit and he needs to suck it up.

After all he’s been through all I ever hoped was that he’d shut his mouth, play football and stay out of trouble off the field. Now, two out of three ain’t bad, but he doesn’t exactly have a long – cough – leash to work with here.

And considering the overhaul the Eagles have undergone over the past couple of months, the last thing they need is their polarizing starting quarterback giving the media sound bites.

That leads into one of the main issues I have with this “Dream Team” anyway. On paper, they look great. You can’t argue that Philly’s secondary is terrifying and there are more playmakers on offense than Andy Reid knows what to do with.

But you can’t just jam a ton of high-priced, egomaniac superstars on the same team and expect them to gel right away. Football doesn’t work that way – just ask Dan Snyder. Teams need trust, unity and chemistry.

So far it doesn’t look good. The Eagles’ Week 1 win over a Rams team that only had Steven Jackson in the game for two plays doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it originally did. Then they lost at Atlanta in Week 2 before getting the hell kicked out of them in their own backyard by a banged-up Giants club last week.

It’s a long season and all isn’t lost for this team yet by any means, but I’m not going near another Eagles bet until we have a better idea if they can rebound from this nightmare start.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41.5)

Another week, another low Baltimore total.

Despite the fact that the Ravens have played over the number in each of their first three games and have a completely different approach on offense than previous years, public perception of the team hasn’t changed yet.

It doesn’t hurt that they’re playing Rex Ryan and the Jets defense this week, either. Thing is, New York is slinging it around a bunch this season too and have played over in two of its last three.

Make no mistake, this one’s going to be a bar fight and there will be some haymakers thrown.

Pick: Over

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4, 54.5)

I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week, but I keep coming back to one thing: these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New England is giving up about 468 yards of total offense per game and Oakland isn’t far behind at 410.

After last week’s debacle in Buffalo, Tom Brady went out and got himself a spiffy new haircut, so you know he's going to be out for blood. Meanwhile, the Raiders will move the chains on the ground - that's what they do. Outside of that, I’m not sure what we’re in for but it’s going to take at least 30+ points to get out of this matchup with a win and I figure that means we’re in for an over.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 39)

Kenny Britt’s injury is really going to hurt the Titans over the next few weeks. Chris Johnson continues to try to play himself into shape and Matt Hasselbeck is still trying to build chemistry with his new club.

I’m a big Nate Washington fan, though he’s obviously no Kenny Britt.

Now that teams don’t have to worry about big No. 18 galloping free on deep routes, they’ll be able to shrink the field and key-in on stopping Johnson and the receivers at the line of scrimmage.

Cleveland’s defense has really come along as well. The Browns rank third against the pass and ninth in total defense heading into this one.

Pick: Under

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 6-3

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Top 5 NFL Trends

ATL
SEA ATL are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

DET
DAL DET are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.

MIA
SD Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

PIT
HOU Over is 7-0 in PIT last 7 games following a S.U. win.

NE
OAK Over is 7-0 in NE last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

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Locks for NFL Week 4

There’s only one play that I really like this weekend. Everything else falls into the lukewarm category.

But after a 4-0 jaunt in Week 3, I’ve built a tiny bankroll and it’s burning a hole in my pocket.

But as we all know, this game is a marathon, not a sprint. We have to stay disciplined with our approach.

I’m leaning toward all of the NFC East teams this weekend, except for Philly. But I can’t get behind Washington. I like what the defense is doing but I just don’t trust Rextasy, especially on the road.

The first bet I made was Giants ML (-115). I am concerned about it being their third roadie in four weeks, and coming off a divisional win, but would be more concerned if they were laying points. To me, this spread should be at least a field goal because on a neutral field the G-Men would be 6-point chalk.

The young corners in the Desert are very beatable. And the O-line doesn’t have a prayer against the Giants’ pressure up front (good chance Osi returns). Corn on the Kolb looked awful against a mediocre Seattle defense, New York is much better.

If Justin “Tuck your panties in” doesn’t play I’m going to puke. He said if he could board the plane then he was going to play. Please don’t puss out on me like you did in Week 1.

I waited all week for the juice to drop on the Jets-Baltimore line but I think it’s bottomed-out. Fearing the hook, I went ahead and grabbed Ravens -3 (-125). I’m not risking any more on it than the first pick but this is my favorite play of the week.

The Jets just get too much respect at the sportsbook. Joe Namath often says stupid things in a drunken stupor, but his comments were spot on this week. Rex Ryan does instill the wrong kind of confidence in his players, and that brazen attitude has carried over to Gang Green backers.

New York can’t run the ball on Balty so Dirty Sanchez will be turned loose. The corners are the weak link on the Ravens defense but Sanchez isn’t good enough to fully exploit them.

The Ravens were mentally preparing for this matchup at halftime last week.

That’s all for now folks. I will most likely be adding the Cowboys ML but I’m waiting for the public to push the number back down with Lions money. I could have grabbed -120 at BookMaker on Thursday morning but wavered on my decision and it was -130 by midday. I think we’ll see it drop again before Sunday.

You’ll want to revisit the comment section below before the games go off because I will likely add a play or two.

Oh yea, sometimes I tweet something worthy of reading so check me out on Twitter.

NFL Record: 7-2-2 ($515)

-- All wagers to win $100 --

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NFL Late Line Moves

October 2, 2011

Seven of the 16 pro football games this week are road favorites with two of them finding some recent support at the betting windows of Las Vegas sports books. The Rams opened as 1-point home favorites Monday at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book for their home game against the Redskins, but as of Saturday afternoon, the Redskins are now 2.5-point favorites.
The combination of quarterback Sam Bradford being not quite as affective as last season and bettors believing in Mike Shanahan solid program has spurred the move.

The Vikings were short 1-point favorites and have been bet up to -3 (EV) at the Hilton with wagers placed by sharp money. The Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL if counting only the first half, but have been crushed in the second half in all three of their losses.

The South Point is the only sports book in Las Vegas to use flat numbers exclusively and after a few sharp plays pushed them off the 2.5, they became the only book to have the Chiefs +3 (-110).

"We wanted to see if there was going to be any Chiefs money at plus-3 because we we're kind of long on the Vikings and we immediately got it," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne.

The South Point is back to 2.5 on the Vikings.

The number "3" has been very powerful this season. 11 games (22.9%) have landed through three weeks, a higher rate than the 15.2% average over the last five seasons. Another game getting close to 3 is Dallas for their home game against the Lions. Sharp money has pushed the Cowboys from 1-point favorites to -2.5.

The sports books will have to test the waters at some point with Dallas at -3 and see if that is the mark that will attract Lions money. In almost every case, it does.

Going to 3 is a major decision for the sports books and it's something they really don't want to do, but are forced to because of mounting risk on the side. Sharps will come back on the dog at +3 because of how valuable the number is, especially if it's a home dog.

We just saw the Patriots as 9-point favorites at Buffalo last week and after losing to the Bills, the Patriots opened surprisingly low at Oakland as 4.5-point favorites. Most sports books are up to -5.5 now and it won't be long until the public helps push it off the dead number to -6. The Raiders are the only team that can say they're a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season.

The rest of the games have been kind of ho-hum with not a lot of activity.

The Bears are sure to go to -7, but are still currently sitting at -6.5.

The Patriots, Packers, Eagles, Falcons and Giants are all public games that will be on the majority of everyone's parlay tickets.

Two of the best games, Pittsburgh at Houston and the Jets at Baltimore, have received great two-way action thus far.

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Morning Early Games:

Sunday, October 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +2.5 500
Dallas - Under 46 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +6.5 500
Chicago - Under 41.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -9 500
Jacksonville - Over 45 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -1 500
Cleveland - Over 37.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +3 500
Cincinnati - Under 42.5 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -3 500
Kansas City - Over 39.5 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -9.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 43.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington -3 500
St. Louis - Under 44 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Houston -3.5 500
Houston - Over 45.5 500


Late Afternoon Games Posted Shortly Check Back! GOOD LUCK !

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Late Games:


Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +5 500
Seattle - Under 39.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +1 500
Arizona - Over 45 500

Denver - 4:15 PM ET Denver +12 500
Green Bay - Over 46.5 500

New England - 4:15 PM ET Oakland +6 500
Oakland - Under 55 500

Miami - 4:15 PM ET Miami +6.5 500
San Diego - Over 45 500

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Painter Gets MNF Start For Colts At Tampa Bay

The Indianapolis Colts (0-3) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) will close out Week 4 of the 2011 NFL regular season on ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is scheduled for 8:30 (ET).

Oddsmakers have seen little movement in the betting odds since Tampa Bay was sent out as 10-point home favorites, with the number bouncing up and down by just a half-point in most places. The total has been bet down from 42 to 40 ½ over the course of the week.

Curtis Painter will be under center for the visitors, being named the Colts starting quarterback by head coach Jim Caldwell on Friday. The former Purdue Boilermakers star will be making his first career start in the prime-time event. The move was made due to his performance in practice, which followed a relief appearance of veteran Kerry Collins (concussion) in last week’s 23-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 10 ½-point home underdogs.

Indianapolis has been ravaged by injuries, losing linebacker Gary Brackett (shoulder) and safety Melvin Bullitt (shoulder) for the season. Brackett’s replacement, Pat Angerer, filled in nicely in amassing a league-high 20 tackles versus Pittsburgh.

Quarterback Peyton Manning remains on the active roster and is making contributions from the coaching booth, as doctors haven’t cleared the perennial All-Pro to be on the sidelines during a game.

Tampa Bay comes into its first Monday Night Football home game since 2003 relatively healthy, as tackle James Lee (knee) and wide receiver Sammie Stroughter (foot) have missed the last two games. Lee is listed as questionable, while Stroughter is expected to be out until the middle of this month.

Tight end Kellen Winslow (knee) sat out Thursday’s practice, but that’s normal due to the team monitoring his activity each week.

Bettors will find that the Buccaneers could go off as double-digit home favorites for the first time since Dec. 28, 2008, dropping a 31-24 contest to the Oakland Raiders when laying 11 points.

Weather forecasts are calling for perfect conditions in the Tampa Bay area, as the game will be played under clear skies and temperatures in the low-70s.

Looking ahead to Week 5, the league will start the bye-week process with the following teams resting at home: Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans.

Some of the earlier action next week will feature the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to take on the Buffalo Bills, while the New England Patriots will be interested in gaining revenge from last year’s playoff loss in hosting the New York Jets.

Sunday’s prime-time battle will feature another rematch of the 2010 playoffs, as the Green Bay Packers return to the Georgia Dome to tackle the Atlanta Falcons. The eventual Super Bowl champions came away with a 48-21 win as one-point road underdogs in that meeting.

The Motor City will be abuzz due to hosting its first Monday Night Football game in nearly a decade, as the event was sold out in less than an hour earlier this year. Detroit will welcome in the Chicago Bears for an important NFC North divisional clash.

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MNF - Colts at Buccaneers

October 1, 2011

The Week 4 card concludes at Raymond James Stadium as the Buccaneers go for their third straight victory. The winless Colts invade Tampa Bay on Monday night as Indianapolis tries to find some stability offensively by starting its second quarterback of the season.

Obviously the Colts' offense was set to struggle with Peyton Manning sidelined due to neck surgery, but nobody thought it would turn out like this. Indianapolis has scored 46 points in the first three games, while reaching the end zone just four times (including one defensive score). Kerry Collins led the Colts' attack in each of the three losses against Houston, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, as Indianapolis has been outgained by 148 yards or more twice. The veteran is not be available due to a concussion as former Purdue standout Curtis Painter will make his first career start on Monday night.

Painter faces a Tampa Bay defense that is slowly tightening things up after beating Atlanta last week, 16-13. The Bucs played with double-revenge in that contest after getting swept by the NFC South champions in 2010, while holding the ball for nearly 36 minutes to improve to 2-1. Josh Freeman tossed a pair of interceptions, but the tall Tampa Bay quarterback scampered in from one yard out to give the Bucs their only touchdown of the day.

Raheem Morris' offense has seen the end zone only twice at home this season, as Aqib Talib returned an interception for a touchdown in the opening week loss to Detroit. Both of Tampa Bay's victories have come by three points, including the remarkable comeback at Minnesota in Week 2 as the Bucs rallied from 20-0 down to stun the Vikings, 24-20. The Bucs haven't been a great home team in Morris' tenure, owning a 4-12-1 ATS mark at Raymond James Stadium, but a majority of those losses have come in the underdog role.

The Colts played their best game of the season against the Steelers last Sunday night, cashing as 10 ½-point home 'dogs in a 23-20 setback. Pittsburgh scored on two big plays on both sides of the ball, while any shot of a cover dashed away with Joseph Addai's game-tying touchdown with two minutes remaining. Indianapolis needs to sure up its defense after allowing Pittsburgh to torch the Colts for 408 yards, including 364 yards through the air from Ben Roethlisberger.

Tampa Bay is in the midst of a tight race in the NFC South, as the Bucs need to grab this victory on Monday before a crucial stretch against San Francisco, New Orleans, and Chicago prior to the bye week. With the Falcons, Eagles, and Bears all starting slow out of the gate, this is the time Tampa Bay can seem like a legit threat to make the NFC playoffs.

It seems like it's all but over for Jim Caldwell's club as the Texans look like the team to bat in the AFC South. The Jets, Steelers, Bills, and Raiders are all going to fight for Wild Card berths, placing the Colts near the back of the line for the playoffs following their slow start. Indianapolis enters dangerous waters by playing four of the next five games away from the RCA Dome, including road trips to Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Tennessee prior to Halloween.

The Bucs are playing under the Monday night lights at home for the first time since 2003 when they picked up a 19-13 win over the Giants. Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU/ATS on Monday night in three appearances over the last six seasons, while being in the spotlight for the first time since a 38-28 loss at Carolina in 2008.

The Colts aren't a Monday night magnet as much as people perceive, as Indianapolis has shown up in the primetime limelight once in each of the last five seasons. It's been a successful wager when backing the Colts in this spot, owning a 4-1 SU/ATS mark, including a 30-17 home triumph of the Texans as 5 ½-point favorites.

Tampa Bay is listed as 10-point home favorites, while the total is set at 40 ½. The game is set to kick off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

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Late favorites hurt Books

October 3, 2011

Week 4 of the pro football season was a tale of two sets of start times for the Las Vegas sports books as they experienced the highs and lows of posted results to an extreme fashion. For the 1:00 p.m. ET start times, one game after another fell the sports books way with fantastic finishes for them while bettors took several bad beats within a 15-minute window.

However, the bettors stuck back with a vengeance in the late battles with four of the games going their way, and it's not coincidental that all those sides were the favorites. Everything the bettors lost early on, they got gift wrapped with additional cash given back as the three, four, five and six-team parlays came cashing in.

Even though most of the early decisions had wiped out the public games, there were a couple lingering that helped produce five and six team parlay payouts coupled with the late games. The few games the public did win early were the Saints and Redskins.

One sports book director said the Saints' 23-10 decision as 8 1/2-point favorites over Jacksonville was one of the worst of the season for his book as the public and sharps both loved New Orleans.

Exotic wagers, such as teasers and parlays, proved to be the back breaker for the sports books. If every game was dealt as a straight bet, the sports books may have came out of the day with a slight win at -110 odds on each side, but when sports books collectively pay out 20 and 40/1 parlays from the public, they have no way to balance the house and protect at those odds.

"It seemed like everyone had a five or six-team parlay cash today," said Las Vegas Hilton executive director Jay Kornegay. "It was almost to the point where when someone came to the window cashing only a four-teamer, I was like, thank you for not having more teams tacked on."

The only realistic hope for sports books on the day was with luck, such as quarterback Cam Newton's back-door touchdown pass with .04 second remaining in the fourth-quarter at Chicago. The Bears were bet all week by small and large money pushing the game up to -7 by kickoff and everyone looked to be easy street until Newton's pass, which took a 34-23 game to 34-29, crossing the point-spread making the unpopular Carolina Panthers side the winner for betting purposes.

The Eagles 23-3 lead over the 49ers as 10-point favorites looked to be another easy win for the public, but the 49ers chipped away at the lead and found themselves winning 24-23. The Bengals 23-20 over public favorite Buffalo also hurt quite a few, but the perfect storm was brewing for the small money action in the afternoon.

"Our liability on the day wasn't just from Sunday, "said Kornegay. "We had all kinds of carryover risk from the late college games on Saturday that everyone won with. Even the baseball games have been very profitable for the public as their teams (the favorites) have been covering on the run-line and the games have been going over the total."

"There are a lot of bettors who like to throw cross-sports into their parlays just because the games are on television. So the late Sunday pro football games hurt us, but they had a lot of momentum built in from the previous day coming into Sunday."

The majority four-team parlay from the late games had the Giants, Packers, Chargers and Patriots paying out 11/1 odds. The Seahawks scoring a late touchdown in the fourth-quarter took the Falcons away from a cover, despite being up 27-7 at one point, or else it would have been five-teamers for everyone and magnified the losses even more.

Despite the popular public combinations coming in late, some sports books still had a chance to show a small profit on the day if the Jets were able to cover against the Ravens in the Sunday night game.

The win-loss statement from the day also varies depending on what part of the city the sports book are in. Books closer to the strip that have mostly tourists or sharp bettors playing there, with the bulk of the action coming Friday night through Sunday, didn't see the type of liability the local shops had.

Sports books on the edges of neighborhoods with a steady clientele of local bettors Monday through Sunday -- those who play the parlay religiously -- fared much worse with the late games than those on the strip.

Sunday's scorecard had the favorites going 8-7 against the spread with five of the underdogs winning outright on the money-line. Because of those straight-up wins, the books were able to build a base of win helped by the most popular teaser team, the Eagles, killing quite a few single-handedly.

But in the end, it still wasn't enough to derail the parlay train from the small money. The Ravens and the OVER capped a day off that most sports books would soon forget and move on to Week 5.

Four Weeks of Observations

You can't help but be happy for Jim Harbaugh and what he's done for the 49ers (3-1). Not only was it a great move to keep his team in the eastern time zone for two back-to-back east coast road games, but every game he's won thus far have been the type of games Mike Singletary seemingly lost during his tenure. He has changed the culture of that locker room for the better and winning cures all. Look for more great things to come from this squad that is now starting to believe.

Matt Hasselbeck has transformed the Tennessee Titans (3-1) into a winner. He looks almost better than the QB who led Seattle to the Super Bowl. He's finally healthy and has the confidence in his coaches to hand him the reins of the offense and run the system through him despite having one of the elite running-backs in the league. We may be thinking that their surprise win over the Ravens was more a matter of the Ravens being in a let-down situation, but it looks to be more about the Titans revamped defense and positive attitude in the locker room which begins with the leadership of Hasselbeck.

This week the Titans travel to Pittsburgh for another test within the conference. While the Titans locker room is loose, the Steelers have had their swagger stalled by the lack of a running game and their apparent defensive struggles with stopping the run.

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Week 4 Preview: Colts at Buccaneers

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-3)

at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -10, Total: 40.5

Winless Indianapolis has another difficult game on the schedule when it travels south to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The Colts continue to limp along without Peyton Manning, scoring just one offensive touchdown in each of their three games. They could be down to their No. 3 QB, Curtis Painter, after Kerry Collins suffered a concussion on Sunday night. The Bucs got it done at home a week ago, holding on for a 16-13 win over Atlanta despite allowing 295 net passing yards. They’re just 3-6-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons. The Colts defense is improving. They don’t allow a lot of big passing plays, and unlike in past years, they’ve held their own against the run (3.3 YPC allowed). Tampa Bay will likely win this game, but the pick here against the spread is INDIANAPOLIS to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Colts.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (58-24 since 1983.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Indy has not tallied more than 176 passing yards in any of its three losses, and the running game hasn’t reached 110 yards so far this year. Joseph Addai needs to touch the ball more, as he has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, but has only caught seven passes. Another player that needs to make more plays is TE Dallas Clark, who has only 10 catches for 83 yards. In his last full season in 2009, Clark caught 100 passes for 1,106 yards and 10 scores. Clark could be a great short-yardage target for the inexperienced Painter, who is just 13-of-39 for 143 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in his career as a backup. The Colts passing defense has been subpar (252 YPG, 18th in NFL), but they have stuffed the run nicely in the past two weeks, holding the Browns to 106 yards (3.1 YPC) and the Steelers to 67 yards (2.4 YPC). They will likely still be missing LB Gary Brackett and S Melvin Bullitt, who both sat out last week’s game with shoulder injuries.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed too many passing yards (271 YPG, 10th-most in NFL), and the offense has also been subpar, with 315 total YPG (22nd in NFL) and just five offensive touchdowns. QB Josh Freeman has connected on 68 percent of his passes, but he’s tossed four interceptions with only two touchdowns. Last year’s leading receiver, Mike Williams, has been targeted 22 times, but has just 10 catches for 89 yards in the three games. The ground game was supposed to be a strength of this team, but the Bucs have only 92 YPG (20th in league). LeGarrette Blount had 24 carries against Atlanta, but gained a mere 81 yards (3.4 YPC). Defensively, Tampa did a tremendous job stuffing the Falcons running game, holding them to 30 yards on 15 carries. The Bucs look to be pretty healthy, except for S Cody Grimm (10 tackles), who suffered a major knee injury last week and is out indefinitely.