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**StarDust Bum** · 09-26-2011, 07:14 PM

Unbeaten Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals

There is only one undefeated team left standing in the AFC standings after just three weeks of play, that being the Buffalo Bills. The biggest upstarts in the league are going to be back in NFL betting action in Week 4 when they head to Paul Brown Stadium to tango with the Cincinnati Bengals.

This 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on Sunday can be seen regionally on CBS.

It's truly hard to imagine that Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading the No. 1 ranked scoring offense in the game. Dropping 41 points on the Kansas City Chiefs was a solid looking result, as was scoring 38 against the Oakland Raiders.

However, the true litmus test for Buffalo came against the New England Patriots, a test that was passed with flying colors with a 34-31 win in Week 3.

Fitzpatrick has thrown for 841 yards and nine TDs in just three games, averages of 280.3 YPG and 3.0 TDs per game. Last year, the Harvard grad had 3,000 yards and 23 TDs in 13 games, averages of 230.8 YPG and 1.8 TDs per game.

This year's difference maker has proven to be Scott Chandler, who already has nine grabs, four of which have gone for TDs in the red zone on the campaign. Though Lee Evans is no longer a part of the receiving corps, both Steve Johnson and David Nelson have 20 receptions, and they have 489 yards and four TDs between them.

On the ground, things are just as efficient. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are combining for over 130 YPG on the campaign, and they are averaging an absolutely amazing 6.75 YPC.

That being said, the Bills havee problems on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, this team intercepted the great Tom Brady four times last week, but it also has allowed 66 points in its last two games and is surrendering 387.7 YPG to opponents over three weeks.

The hope for the Bengals is that the Buffalo defense doesn't get all that much better from last week to this week.

Cincinnati knows that it will have growing pains over these next several weeks as rookie Andy Dalton tries to get accustomed to his surroundings as a starting quarterback. The former TCU Horned Frog had a tough one against the San Francisco 49ers last week, going 17-of-32 for 157 yards with no scores and two interceptions in a brutal 13-8 loss.

The Bengals didn't have a single play of more than 22 yards on the day against a San Francisco squad that struggled mightily two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys on big plays.

The good news for head coach Marvin Lewis is that his defense does rank No. 3 in the league at 276.3 YPG. The Bengals rank in the Top 10 in virtually every major defensive category, though we have to remember that games against the 49ers, Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns do not exactlymake for a tough schedule.

Playing Buffalo is generally pretty bad news for Bengals fans. In fact, the last time they won a game in this series was back in the 1989 playoffs when the Ickey Shuffle was the craze in the Queen City. Since that point, Cincinnati is a dreadful 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS against the Bills.

Sunday night's opening NFL lines features the Bills favored by three points even though they are on the road. The 'total' opened up at 44 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-26-2011, 07:15 PM

Chicago Bears Host Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

After a promising start to the year, the Chicago Bears will try to end a two-game skid this Sunday when they host the Carolina Panthers at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off consecutive double-digit losses against the past two Super Bowl champions and looking to re-gain the form that helped them beat Atlanta 30-12 in the season opener.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Chicago opened as a 6 ½-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 44.

The Bears looked overwhelmed again at times in a 27-17 home loss to Green Bay last Sunday after falling 30-13 at New Orleans the week before. Chicago offensive coordinator Mike Martz had vowed to balance the offense more in favor of the running game, but falling behind 14-0 to the Packers early in the second quarter forced him to abandon it for the second straight week.

Running back Matt Forte was limited to just two yards on nine carries for the Bears as they ran the ball only 11 times for the second time in as many games. They finished with 13 rushing yards, including 11 by quarterback Jay Cutler, which is the team’s lowest total since 1960.

Cutler was sacked three times by Green Bay for 24 yards and also threw two interceptions while completing 21 of 37 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns. He has topped the 300-yard mark twice in the first three games.

Meanwhile, Carolina QB Cam Newton saw his streak of 400+ yard passing games come to an end in a 16-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. However, the rookie still led the Panthers (1-2) to their first victory in sloppy conditions at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Heavy downpours prevented the team from putting together much of an air attack, as Newton threw for 158 yards and found former Chicago tight end Greg Olsen for the game-winning touchdown with 4:20 remaining.

Olsen, traded to Carolina prior to the season, ended up with seven catches for 57 yards. He was one of Cutler’s favorite targets and will have revenge on his mind along with Panthers head coach Ron Rivera, who was the Bears defensive coordinator for three years, including 2006 when they advanced to Super Bowl XLI.

Rivera was let go by Chicago after the team lost to Indianapolis in that game, 29-17.

The Bears won last year’s meeting 23-6 at Carolina behind Forte, who rushed for a season-high 166 yards on 22 carries and scored two touchdowns in the first quarter. Backup QB Todd Collins was under center because Cutler had suffered a concussion against the New York Giants the week before.

Collins had one of the worst games ever for a winning signal caller with 32 yards passing, no touchdowns and four interceptions. But Panthers QBs Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore did not fare much better, totaling 96 passing yards and three picks between them.

The early weather forecast for Sunday in Chicago calls for a high temperature of 64 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:09 PM

Detroit Lions Small 'Dogs At Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys don’t want to rely on a third straight comeback when they host the undefeated Detroit Lions on Sunday.

FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Cowboys Stadium, the palatial estate of owner Jerry Jones.

Dallas opened as 3-point favorites at Don Best, but it was quickly bet down to two. The total has held steady at 47 points.

The Cowboys (2-1 straight up and 1-1-1 against the spread) are coming off an exciting 18-16 MNF win over Washington as 3 ½-point home favorites. They’re now tied with Washington and the NY Giants for the NFC East lead, with preseason division favorite Philly one game back.

Quarterback Tony Romo was the goat in the Week 1 loss at the Jets (27-24), but has engineered late fourth-quarter comebacks at San Francisco (27-24 OT) and then Washington. Dallas was held out of the end-zone last game with six field goals, but the win is all that matters.

The 34 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘over’ was 2-0 in Dallas first two games and 9-0 in its previous nine home games.

Romo has a 95.8 quarterback rating (ranked ninth) and his toughness cant’ be questioned even if his decision-making can. His broken rib needed a second pain injection before kickoff, but there’s no doubt he’ll play this week, currently listed as probable.

Dallas would love to get receiver Miles Austin (hamstring) back this week, but he’s doubtful. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (concussion) and Mike Jenkins (shoulder) were both injured last game, but returned.

Losing Austin is a big blow as there’s no consistent receiver opposite Dez Bryant. Kevin Ogletree was a disaster with a fumble and a touchdown drop. Felix Jones helped bail the ‘Boys out with 115 rushing yards on just 14 carries. He reportedly re-injured his shoulder, but is probable like Romo.

Dallas is also having problems with new center Phil Costa and the shotgun snaps. That has to be cleaned up quickly going against Ndamukong Suh and the ferocious Detroit defensive line that could get a boost with the return of rookie Nick Fairley (foot, questionable).

The Lions (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) are battling the Buffalo Bills for the surprise team in football. Solid improvement was expected from the men from Motown, but they’re already halfway to their six wins of last year and 3-0 for the first time since Billy Sims and company in 1980.

Detroit had solid wins at Tampa Bay (27-20) and home to Kansas City (48-3), but found itself down 20-0 at halftime at winless Minnesota last week.

Fortunately, Minnesota has made blowing huge leads a habit this year and Detroit came roaring back for a 26-23 OT win, ‘pushing’ the 3-point spread. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had 378 passing yards, two TDs and no interceptions and is third in the league in quarterback rating (110.7).

Stafford is only in his third season and has played just 16 games due to injuries. It’s that inexperience that caused him problems against Minnesota’s zone blitzes in the first half. Look for innovative Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to show him a lot of different looks.

Stafford is spreading the ball around with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew all with 140+ receiving yards. The running game is struggling at 2.8 yards per carry (ranked 30th). Jahvid Best (143 rushing yards) is one of the culprits, but he’s at least doing a good job receiving out of the backfield.

Detroit ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense (301 YPG). Stopping the rushing of Jones is key Sunday and then the defense can pin its ear backs against the banged-up Romo and try to improve on its eight turnovers (four interceptions and four picks).

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Detroit this year, scoring 33.7 PPG and allowing 15.3 PPG. No total has been above 45 points.

Detroit is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games and 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight overall.

These teams met last year on Nov .21 with Dallas winning 35-19 as 5-point home favorites. That was an immortal quarterback battle of Shaun Hill versus Jon Kitna with both starters injured. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.

Weather should be warm and sunny in the 80s, with closing the retractable roof always an option.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:10 PM

Tom Brady, Patriots Next Up For Oakland Raiders

The New England Patriots play their second tough road opponent in a row when they visit the improved Oakland Raiders on Sunday.

CBS will broadcast at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, with its ominous ‘Black Hole’ section.

New England opened as 6-point favorites on the Don Best odds screen, but it’s already down to 4 ½-points. The NFL betting total has increased from 52 to 53 ½ points.

The Patriots (2-1 straight up and against the spread) lost 34-31 at the Bills last week as 7-point favorites, ending a 15-game winning streaking against them. Buffalo is now in first place in the AFC East, one game ahead of New England and the Jets.

Losing to Buffalo is tough enough, but how the Patriots lost was really frustrating. First, they blew a 21-0 second quarter lead. Second, Tom Brady threw four picks for the first time since 2006. Finally, the Bills got a break when their touchdown with under two minutes left was reversed and put at the 1-yard line. They then ran down the clock before the winning field goal.

The 65 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 53 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for New England this year, scoring 34.7 PPG (tied for second in the league) and allowing 26.3 PPG (ranked 27th). The ‘over’ is an incredible 19-3 in the team’s last 22 games overall.

Brady has thrown for an NFL record 1,327 yards in three games, but his 44.3 average attempts leave him open to interceptions and also taking shots from an Oakland defense that has 10 sacks (tied for fourth). Last year, Brady averaged 30.8 attempts and had four total picks.

Defensively, New England just can’t stop the pass, last in the NFL at 377 YPG. Three key members of the Pats secondary – Patrick Chung (thumb), Ras-I Dowling (hip) and Kyle Arrington (concussion) – are all listed as questionable in addition to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (back).

The Patriots haven’t had much recent experience bouncing back from losses, going 14-2 SU in the regular season last year. However, they’re 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a defeat.

Note New England played much better in its other road game this year, 38-24 at Miami as 7-point favorites in Week 1.

The Raiders (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are tied with San Diego for first place in the AFC West. They could easily be undefeated if not for blowing a 21-3 halftime lead at Buffalo in Week 2.

Oakland rebounded nicely last week, beating a very good Jets team 34-24 as 3-point home underdogs. The Bay Area Bunch outrushed the Jets (234-100) and battered and bruised quarterback Mark Sanchez with four sacks and one broken nose.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Oakland this year with no total higher than 42 ½-points.

Coach Hue Jackson has done a nice job in his first season. His team is very physical on both sides of the ball. Darren McFadden leads the NFL in rushing (393 yards) and should play after being listed as probable (groin injury).

The Raiders will pound the ball again this week. Their 26th-ranked passing attack (190 YPG) with quarterback Jason Campbell just isn’t built to throw it 35 times, even with New England’s woeful pass defense.

Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great either at 289.7 YPG (ranked 28th). Brady will certainly throw the ball often, but coach Bill Belichick needs to get more touches in the running game for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and even promising rookie Stevan Ridley.

This is the Raiders second home game this year and this stadium is becoming a tough place to visit (5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven).

The ‘over’ is 5-0 in Oakland’s last five home games, scoring 27.8 PPG and allowing 26.2 PPG.

These teams last met in 2008 with New England winning 49-26 as 6 ½-point road favorites. Of course, Oakland fans still hate the Patriots for the 2002 ‘Snow Bowl’ playoff game when Brady and New England survived with the infamous ‘Tuck Rule’ call.

Weather should be fine, partly cloudy and in the 60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:12 PM

Tennessee Titans Tackle Browns In Cleveland

Neither the Tennessee Titans nor the Cleveland Browns were expected to make a whole heck of a lot of noise this year in NFL betting action. They've both won two games in a row after disappointing Week 1 losses, though, and now they meet in Cleveland for a Week 4 encounter.

Kickoff from the Dawg Pound is set for 1:00 (ET) on Sunday afternoon, with regional TV coverage set for CBS.

Pop quiz, hot shot! How many teams in the AFC have allowed fewer than 18.0 PPG this year?

Answer: Only two. The Baltimore Ravens clearly have the top defense in this conference, having allowed just 40 points on the season, but the Titans aren't all that far behind, conceding just 43 total points.

This unit has only allowed 261.0 YPG this season, ranking No. 1 in the league. The Titans also rank No.2 in passing yards allowed (172.0 YPG), and their 14.3 PPG is good enough for second in the NFL.

Tennessee is the only team to allow fewer than 20 points in all three of its games thus far on the young campaign.

The offense is most certainly getting there. After a suspect game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, Matt Hasselbeck has fired back with two straight huge games with over 300 passing yards to lead his team.

The only major problem that he is going to face is that Kenny Britt, the team's leading receiver with 289 yards and three TDs, is out for the rest of the season with an ACL tear suffered in last week's win against the Denver Broncos.

The injury to Britt is going to leave a massive hole at receiver for Hasselbeck, and the running game is going to have to pick up the slack. It's tough to believe that Chris Johnson has a grand total of 98 yards on the season as a rusher, and as a result, the ground game ranks dead last in the league at 51.7 YPG.

Things haven't always been pretty for the Browns this year, as all three of their games have classified as generally ugly. However, head coach Pat Shumur won't mind, as wins are wins, especially when his team is playing in the brutal AFC North.

Strep throat kept Peyton Hillis out of the fold last week, but we would like to think that he is going to be back in this one. Montario Hardesty stepped in against the Miami Dolphins, but it was the defense that truly stepped up to win the game in a 17-16 decision.

We don't tend to think of this Cleveland club as one that plays fantastic defense, but allowing 316.0 YPG is a great start to the campaign. What we do have to remember though, is that the Browns haven't played all that tough of a schedule yet, as none of the Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals should be making the playoffs this year.

These two teams have met nine times since the revival of the Browns. The Titans have marks of 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in those games, including posting a 28-9 victory in the most recent matchup in 2008.

The last time that Cleveland hosted the Titans was in 2005, a 20-14 win for the Browns.

Early NFL betting action has drifted towards the 'over.' Of the games that were released on Sunday night, this was the only one with a 'total' in the 30s. The oddsmakers lined it at 37, but the 'total' has since been pushed to 37½.

Cleveland is a slender one-point favorite at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:14 PM

Chiefs, Vikings Collide With 0-3 Records

The Minnesota Vikings (0-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) are sure to gain some media coverage in Week 4 as the only NFL game between winless foes this weekend.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) at Arrowhead Stadium and television coverage will be handled by FOX.

Oddsmakers sent out Minnesota as 1 ½-point road favorites and some shops have seen that number rise a half-point. The total has been bet up a half-point to 40.

Minnesota has had every opportunity to come away with a victory in the first three weeks, leading all three games by double-digits at halftime, only to see each one slip away.

The latest collapse came last week versus the upstart Detroit Lions, blowing a 20-point lead, dropping a 26-23 contest as 3-point home underdogs.

Much of the blame has to be assigned to a coaching staff in calling just five running plays for star Adrian Peterson. It’s a puzzling trend that has surfaced the entire season, as he’s carried the ball 36 times in the first 30 minutes, only to get the ball 22 times after the break.

Calling No. 28’s number has to be a priority in hostile territory this week, as Kansas City ranks 28th in the league versus the run. That’s an alarming statistic in this matchup due to the Chiefs having played three teams that don’t feature the run.

Bettors will find that the Vikings are 3-5 ATS in October the last two years and the ‘over’ is 7-1 in those contests.

Kansas City has fallen to Buffalo (41-7), Detroit (48-3) and San Diego (20-17) to start the season, and out-gained by a total of 419 combined yards in those games. The offense has also managed to score just 27 points in the opening three weeks.

Quarterback Matt Cassel managed to have his best game of the season last week versus the Chargers, registering his first 100-plus passer rating, completing 17-of-24 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns with a single interception.

It’s still important to note that the Chiefs’ passing game ranks next-to-last in the league in averaging just 130.7 yards a game.

The running game is still feeling the affects of losing Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn left ACL, as a four-man backfield combined to gain 80 rushing yards on 26 carries. Kansas City is averaging 113.3 yards per game on the ground, dramatically lower from the 164.2-yard average a year ago.

Handicappers will find that the Chiefs are 8-4 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, while the ‘under’ is 6-5 in those games.

With both teams nearly out of any possibility of making the playoffs, a lot of the attention inside Arrowhead Stadium will be focused on Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, who will face his old team in the regular season for the first time since being traded in 2008.

Weather forecasts suggest a perfect day for football in Kansas City, with game-time highs in the low-70s and sunny skies.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:17 PM

NFL Notebook - Week 4

September 27, 2011

It used to be nearly automatic to go under an NFL total above 50.

Not anymore. Due to increased scoring, it's now perilous to buck an over/under in this range.

Through Week 3 there were three totals above 51. All three went over.

The Chargers-Patriots in Week 2 had a total of 53 ½ points. There were 56 points scored. Then, this past week, New England-Buffalo had a 55-point total and Houston-New Orleans had a 51 ½-point number. The Patriots and Bills combined for 65 points, while there was a staggering 73 points scored in the Saints' 40-33 victory against the Texans.

It may be psychologically difficult to go over an NFL total above 50, but when the Patriots and Saints are involved it's either play over or avoid the total.

One of the many strengths of Vince Lombardi was making halftime adjustments. The Lombardi Packers almost owned the third quarter. The opposite of Lombardi is the Vikings' Leslie Frazier.

Minnesota has had double-digit halftime leads in all three of its games. I don't know what Frazier said during these halftimes, but Minnesota ended up losing every game compiling just 15 second-half first downs and six points.

If the Vikings lose to Kansas City Sunday, it officially will be rebuilding time in Minnesota. It also should mark the end of Frazier's head coaching career.

Jay Cutler has been taking some criticism for his negative body language on the field. Cutler, though, is only human. Since coming to the Bears in 2009, Cutler has been sacked 101 times, the highest three-year figure in the NFL.

Chances are you're not doing well in your fantasy football league if you own Chris Johnson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams. Gore is averaging a puny 2.5 yards per carry - and that's better than Johnson (2.1 yards) and Williams (2.4).

It's not only ironic, but perhaps telling that all three of these runners signed new big-money contracts before this season. Williams may not even be the best running back on Carolina, which has Jonathan Stewart.

Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL, but he still does dumb things such as ripping NFL officials for not protecting quarterbacks. Since 2005 the league has gone too far to actually protect quarterbacks.

After Tom Brady was injured in 2008, the league toughened up its rules on low hits. Vick, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton and Kerry Collins have been the only quarterbacks to get hurt this season and none of their injuries has so far caused them to miss the next game.

Chan Gaily is my early nomination for coach of the year. The Buffalo Bills are undefeated despite having major talent deficiencies. Gaily has gotten the most of his heady, but weak-armed journeyman-type quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick by putting together an effective spread offense. This keeps the Bills' below-average offensive line from being exposed while playing to Fitzpatrick's strength.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:22 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 4

September 27, 2011

Sunday, Oct 2 (1:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

DAL at DET: 10-4 ATS L14 as underdog
DET: 9-3 ATS L12 vs non-div opponent
DAL: 1-6 ATS L7 as home favorite
DAL: 5-2 ATS L7 vs Detroit

JAX at NOR: 3-8 ATS L11 as road favorite
NOR: 5-1 'over' L6 on road
JAX: 0-8 ATS L8 at home off loss
JAX: 5-1 ATS L6 as non-div home underdog

PHI at SF: 7-4-1 ATS L12 as underdog
SF: 0-4-1 ATS L5 off win
PHI: 3-6 ATS L9 as home favorite
PHI: 6-2 ATS L8 off double-digit loss

STL at WSH: 11-3-1 ATS L15 as road underdog
WSH: 7-2 'under' L9 on road
STL: 1-6 ATS L7
STL: 4-1 'over' L5 at home

CLE at TEN: 0-7 ATS L7 off home win
TEN: 4-8 ATS L12
CLE: 2-7 ATS L9 as home favorite
CLE: 3-8 ATS L11

CIN at BUF: 4-0 ATS L4 vs AFC North
BUF: 6-2 'over' L8 on road
CIN: 9-3 ATS L12 as home underdog
CIN: 5-3 'over' L8 at home

KC at MIN: 3-6-1 ATS L10 on road
MIN: 3-5 ATS L8 vs AFC
KC: 6-3 'under' L9
KC: 6-1 ATS L7 vs NFC

CHI at CAR: 2-6-1 ATS L9 on road
CAR: 1-8-1 ATS L10 dog of 7 pts or less
CHI: 6-2 ATS L8 home off loss
CHI: 2-8 ATS L10 2nd of BB home games

HOU at PIT: 4-8 ATS L12 road vs non-div
PIT: 7-2 'over' L9
HOU: 1-6 ATS L7 home vs non-div
HOU: 8-4 'over' L12

Sunday, Oct 2 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
SEA at ATL: 7-3 ATS L10 as road favorite
ATL: 11-1 ATS L12 off loss
SEA: 7-4 ATS L11 as home underdog
SEA: 2-7 ATS L9 off win

ARZ at NYG: 16-9 ATS L25 as road favorite
NYG: 4-1 ATS L5 on road off win
ARZ: 9-3 ATS L12 as home underdog
ARZ: 8-3 ATS L11 as underdog off loss

Sunday, Oct 2 (4:15 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

SDG at MIA: 15-5 ATS L20 as road underdog
MIA: 6-2 ATS L8 in 2nd of BB road games
SDG: 6-3 ATS L9 at home vs non-div
SDG: 7-1 'under' L8 at home

GNB at DEN: 1-8 ATS L9 off ATS win
DEN: 3-7 ATS L10 road vs NFC
GNB: 7-2 ATS L9 vs NFC
GNB: 9-3-1 ATS L13 home

OAK at NE: 12-5 ATS L17 off loss
NE: 8-3 ATS L11 road vs non-div
OAK: 2-5 ATS L7 home off win
OAK: 4-8 ATS L12 vs non-div

Sunday, Oct 2 (8:25 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL at NYJ: 10-6 ATS as dog under Ryan
NYJ: 3-0 'under' L3 vs Baltimore
BAL: 9-4 ATS L13 home off win
BAL: 11-4 ATS L15 home vs non-div

Monday, Oct 3 (8:35 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

TAM at IND: 1-7 ATS L8 off loss of 3 pts or less
IND: 5-2-1 ATS L8 vs NFC
TAM: 4-12-1 ATS L17 at home
TAM: 0-5-1 ATS L6 at home vs AFC

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2011, 07:23 PM

Week 4 Preview: Detroit at Dallas

DETROIT LIONS (3-0)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 47

The ailing Cowboys will have their hands full with a young, physical Detroit defense when the teams meet Sunday in Big D.

When they played in Dallas last November, the Lions beat up on QB Jon Kitna and held the Cowboys to 265 yards of offense. The Cowboys won in large part to a fluke play: Brian McCann took a punt that the Lions were tipping back into the field of play and returned it 97 yards for a TD. With RB Felix Jones and WR Miles Austin (among others) ailing, Dallas will likely struggle to take advantage of Detroit’s suspect secondary. And with a horrendous group of cornerbacks of its own, Dallas will struggle against the Lions’ resurgent passing game. Not only have the Lions won eight straight games dating back to last season, but they are 14-3-2 ATS (82.4%) since the start of 2010. The pick here is for DETROIT to remain unbeaten on the season.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend supporting the Lions.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Detroit pulled off a stellar comeback last Sunday in Minnesota, as the team erased a 20-0 halftime deficit and prevailed in overtime. This marked the franchise’s largest second-half comeback. The Lions are now 3-0 for the first time since 1980. QB Matthew Stafford is off to a flying start this year. He threw for 378 yards in the victory over the Vikings, giving him 977 yards, 9 TD and just 2 INT in three games this season. WR Calvin Johnson has six of those TD grabs, with two coming in each game. Detroit’s running game has been weak this season, with just 235 yards on 84 carries (2.8 YPC). Top RB Jahvid Best suffered a bruised thigh last Sunday, but should be able to start against Dallas.

Dallas QB Tony Romo wasn’t great in Monday’s 18-16 field-goal fest win over Washington, but still led his team to the victory. Romo, who was questionable because of cracked ribs and a punctured lung, finished 22-of-36 for 255 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He did a good job of spreading the wealth, as five receivers caught at least three passes and nobody had more than Dez Bryant’s 63 yards. Besides K Dan Bailey, who had all of the team’s 18 points, Felix Jones was the offensive star for Dallas with 115 rushing yards on 8.2 yards per carry, and three catches for 40 more yards. Jones, who has been playing despite a separated shoulder, appeared to have re-injured that shoulder on Monday night. His status is questionable for the matchup with Detroit. CB Mike Jenkins also re-injured his shoulder on Monday, but was able to return to the game. CB Terence Newman suffered what appears to be a concussion in the fourth quarter of the Redskins game, and his status is uncertain for Sunday. DE Jason Hatcher (strained calf) is questionable.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2011, 06:56 PM

Drew Brees And Saints At Jacksonville Jaguars

The clubs have split the last four clashes, with the Saints covering three.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints go marching into Jacksonville this Sunday to take on the Jaguars in Week 4 of the NFL season. Game time is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and some markets will be able to catch the action on FOX.

Interestingly, the 2-1 Saints opened up -8 on the road over the 1-2 Jaguars but the number has shifted toward Jacksonville. Currently on the Don Best odds screen, New Orleans is favored by 6½. The total is 45½.

The Saints come into this week tied for second in the league in scoring at 34.7 points per game, and that was against a tough list of opponents. Their only loss is against the defending champion Green Bay Packers.

New Orleans blew out the Chicago Bears, and rallied last week to put 40 on a Houston Texans team that is supposed to have a revamped defense.

The offense all revolves around Brees, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Stats are not even necessary to illustrate how good he is but just for good measure he has a completion percentage of 68.5. In the National Football League, that’s incredible.

He also got an upgrade – yes, an upgrade – when the Saints dumped running back Reggie Bush essentially for Darren Sproles who leads the team in receptions and is incredibly versatile, dangerous and durable.

On the other side, there aren’t many believers out there in the Jags, but do not try to group them at the very bottom of the league yet.

Jacksonville’s ‘D’ is flying under the radar. While it has only been three games, the Jaguars are fourth in total defense, seventh against the pass and fifth against the run. They are the only team to hold their opponents under 300 yards in each game thus far.

As far as points go, they gave up 14 to Tennessee, 16 to Carolina and 32 to the Jets. That 32 may look bad, but New York was given a ton of short fields after QB Luke McCown had a historically bad day and threw four interceptions.

This week could either bring that defense down to Earth or show that the unit is for real.

The problem for the Jags is offense. They have only been able to muster 29 points and one red zone trip all season, both franchise lows through three outings.

It sounds like star running back Maurice Jones-Drew has been shut down to force bad passing situations, right? That would be incorrect. In fact, MJD has enjoyed his best start to a season ever. All Jacksonville needs is above average quarterback play and they will begin to win games.

Rookie Blaine Gabbert made his first start last week in an absolute monsoon in Carolina against the Panthers. The first TD pass of his career was a memorable one. He threw a pass up at the end of the half to Mike Thomas who sloshed forward into the end zone. Supposedly, that play was the same one in which Thomas caught a Hail Mary prayer to defeat the Houston Texans last year.

Gabbert looked just fine in his starting debut and did not make any inexcusable rookie mistakes. He was held back a little by ultra-conservative play calling in the second half. Look for him to possibly be turned loose on Sunday.

New Orleans’ defense has given up some points and yards, but the Saints are near the top of the NFL in sacks with 10. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and his entire unit will be licking their chops at the chance to slam fresh meat to the turf.

In the National Football League, anything can happen. The Jaguars have play keep-away from Brees and the Saints offense by running the ball and controlling the clock. On top of that, they must create turnovers.

The Saints are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 versus a team with a losing record while the Jags are 2-9 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Early weather reports call for a sunny afternoon in Jacksonville with teams reaching the mid-70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2011, 07:00 PM

Baltimore Ravens Look To Ground New York Jets

The Baltimore defense is allowing just 13.3 PPG, tops in the NFL.
New York Jets coach Rex Ryan gets a second shot at the team that spurned him when he visits the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

NBC will broadcast at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from M&T Bank Stadium, where Baltimore looked extremely impressive in its only home game, 35-7 over Pittsburgh.

Baltimore is a 3 ½-point favorite at Don Best. The NFL betting total is just 41 ½-points despite both teams in the top-10 in scoring.

Ryan is the Ravens former defensive coordinator, but was passed over for the head coaching job for John Harbaugh in 2008. The Jets blew his first chance for revenge opening week last year, losing 10-9 at home after an awful performance by Mark Sanchez (74 passing yards).

The Jets (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) also experienced defeat last week at Oakland, 34-24 as 3-point favorites. The Raiders ran over, around and through them for 234 rushing yards, with the exciting Darren McFadden (171) leading the way.

The fact that Ryan’s team got out-muscled was surprising, especially for a run ‘D’ that was third in the NFL last year (90.9 YPG). It allowed 176 total rushing yards in opening home wins over Dallas (27-24) and Jacksonville (32-3) this season.

New York has also gotten away from a ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack (148.4 YPG last year, ranked fourth). The number is 82 YPG this year (25th), with Shonn Greene not looking anything like an elite back.

Having center Nick Mangold (ankle) likely out again really hurts. He’s responsible for trying to control behemoth Haloti Ngata in the middle of the defense. Jets’ cornerback Antonio Cromartie (ribs) is listed as questionable.

Sanchez is averaging 37 pass attempts, compared to 31.7 last year. That’s dangerous against Baltimore with him suffering a slight broken nose last week and being sacked nine times already. The Ravens love to bring the blitz and their nine sacks are tied for seventh in the league.

The Ravens (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have the same record as the Jets, but feel much better heading in after a 37-7 win at St. Louis as 4 ½-point favorites. Quarterback Joe Flacco had 389 passing yards, three TDs and no picks.

Flacco’s completion percentage of 54.1 is just 28th among signal callers. However, he has seven TDs versus two interceptions and played well in that huge Pittsburgh game (three TDs, no picks). He did struggle in the 26-13 loss at Tennessee in Week 2, but the whole team was bad and that game is looking like an aberration.

Baltimore has a very good running back in Ray Rice (231 yards) and even Ricky Williams (107 yards) has proven to be a solid backup. Each is averaging over five yards per carry. The Jets got burned by Oakland last week running outside the tackles and Rice has the speed to do the same if they don’t adjust.

Receiver Lee Evans (ankle) is doubtful in this game. Torrey Smith did a great job last week (152 yards) lining up opposite Anquan Boldin. The rookie could definitely be a concern if Cromartie if out.

Baltimore will not be afraid the throw the ball even with the Jets pass defense one of the best in the league. Flacco can make the throws to all parts of the field and the fourth-year player needs to keep winning these big home games. The team was 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) at home last season.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Baltimore, scoring 28.3 PPG and allowing 13.3. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Jets, scoring 27.7 PPG and surrendering 20.3.

The ‘over’ is 16-4-1 in New York’s last 21 road games.

The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings versus the Jets, ‘covering’ as 1-point ‘dogs last season. They’re 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 14 points.

Weather should be very nice for football, clear and in the 50s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2011, 07:01 PM

Miami Dolphins Eye Upset At San Diego Chargers

Miami has picked up the win in four of its last five trips to San Diego.
The Miami Dolphins (0-3) and San Diego Chargers (2-1) will meet up Sunday afternoon in an AFC clash at Qualcomm Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers had no choice but to send out San Diego as 9-point home favorites due to Miami remaining winless. Those odds have fallen two points, while the total has dropped from 46 ½ to 45.

Bettors were undoubtedly drawn to the Miami side due to the team’s 18-7-1 ATS record on the road, while San Diego has failed against the number in all three games this season.

Miami is also 0-2-1 ATS on the year, narrowly missing as 1-point road underdogs in a 17-16 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. The Dolphins finished that contest with an 89-yard statistical advantage.

Most of the team’s failure can be attributed to its 30th-ranked defense, allowing 415.7 yards a game, which is alarming due to returning 10 of 11 starters from a unit that finished sixth in the same category a year ago.

The pass defense has been abysmal in allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 311 yards a contest, which trails only Green Bay and New England. That’s a troubling statistic when facing one of the league’s best signal callers Sunday.

Miami has had success in this series dating back to the 2000 season, covering the number in five of six meetings, but failing in its last try in San Diego in a 23-13 loss as 5 ½-point road underdogs in 2009.

San Diego is certainly pleased to be 2-1 at this stage of the season, considering the team placed itself in a 2-5 hole a year ago. Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 86-of-126 passes for 979 yards and four touchdowns, but has also been picked off six times. That’s a significant statistic when finding out that the former NC State star hasn’t thrown his sixth interception until Week 7 or 8 the last three years.

Rivers is still one of the better throwing options in the league and has tallied a 36-10 SU recover at Qualcomm Stadium when starting under center. The Chargers are also 23-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points.

Injuries are starting to become a major concern for one of football’s most explosive offenses, with the biggest one surrounding perennial All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates. He continues to battle a sore right foot that has him listed as doubtful and may keep him out of the lineup for weeks to come.

After catching 79 passes for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009, the nine-year pro has participated in just 12 of 19 games since the start of the 2010 campaign, coming away with 58 receptions and 856 yards over that span.

Bettors will find that the Chargers are 1-3 ATS versus AFC East competition over the last two-plus seasons, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests.

Weather forecasts suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s in the San Diego area – perfect conditions for a football game.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2011, 07:03 PM

Washington Redskins Face Winless St. Louis Rams

The Rams have covered their last four meetings with the Redskins.
The Washington Redskins take to the road for the second week in a row and hope for a better result when they visit the winless St. Louis Rams on Sunday.

The Redskins (2-1) are coming off an 18-16 loss at Dallas on Monday night after winning their first two games at home and will look to avenge a 30-16 road loss to the Rams (0-3) last season.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX.

Washington opened as a 1 ½-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, but early action on St. Louis has moved the line to a pick ’em with the total at 43 ½.

The Redskins led the Cowboys for most of the game in the latest edition of Monday Night Football, but Dallas kicker Dan Bailey’s sixth field goal of the evening prevented them from staying unbeaten. Washington had taken a 16-9 lead with four minutes remaining in the third quarter when quarterback Rex Grossman found running back Tim Hightower on a 1-yard touchdown pass.

However, Bailey answered with three straight field goals, including the game-winner with 1:47 left.

Grossman played fairly well but could only get his team into the end zone once, which is more than the Cowboys accomplished. He threw for 250 yards and was picked off once, bringing his season total to five touchdowns and three interceptions. Hightower finished with just 41 yards rushing, and none of Washington’s running backs have broken the century mark in three games.

The Rams (0-3) are struggling offensively and defensively and have yet to score more than 16 points in a game this season. They got crushed 37-7 by Baltimore at home last week following a 28-16 road loss the previous Monday night.

St. Louis has regressed from last year when the team nearly made the playoffs, and second-year QB Sam Bradford has not looked like the same player he was last season. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for 235 yards with one touchdown and one interception in last year’s meeting with the Redskins but has been held under 200 yards in two of the first three games.

Bradford has battled hand and toe injuries while the team’s running game has also failed to produce due to injuries to Steven Jackson (groin) and Carnell Williams (hamstring).

However, Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has got to be more concerned with his defense, which is surrendering 32 points per game after being one of the team’s strengths last year. The ‘over’ is 2-0-1 in their games this season and has cashed in the past two meetings in St. Louis.

Sunday's weather in St. Louis looks just fine with clear skies and afternoon highs in the upper-60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2011, 07:07 PM

Week 4 Preview: 49ers at Eagles

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-1)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

Michael Vick is questionable for a second straight week, this time because of a non-throwing hand injury, when the Eagles host the 49ers.

Vick is expected to start, but the Eagles will be moderately affected as their offense often includes some creative ball-handling by Vick. Vince Young is finally healed from his hamstring injury and will likely be the No. 2 quarterback. The 49ers have dropped five straight, SU and ATS, to Philadelphia, including a 27-24 home loss last October. San Francisco outgained the Eagles in that game, which Vick missed. QB Alex Smith accounted for three of San Francisco’s five turnovers. The Eagles are the superior team, and they should win big in their home stadium. The pick here is PHILADELPHIA to win and cover.

The FoxSheets shows a pair of trends siding with the Eagles.

Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. (59-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +28.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*).

San Francisco is currently in first place in the NFC West after posting a 13-8 win in Cincinnati last week. Despite the 2-1 record on the season, this offense has been atrocious. The Niners rank dead last in NFL total yardage (213.7 YPG), and star RB Frank Gore (2.5 YPC) has been the main culprit for lagging production. Gore’s status is uncertain after he suffered a sprained right ankle in Sunday’s win. QB Alex Smith hasn’t been a superstar either, with only 504 passing yards and two touchdowns in three games. Defensively, the team has played pretty well, especially against the run, where it ranks third in yardage (62.7 YPG) and second in yards per carry (2.9). Although, one of the game’s elite tacklers, S Donte Whitner, injured his hip in Sunday’s win and is questionable for this game.

During the five-game series win streak over the Niners, Philly has won by an average score of 35 to 18. The Eagles have rushed the ball extremely well this season, racking up 182 yards per game (2nd in NFL) on 5.4 YPC. The passing game is below average (227 YPG), but the team got some great news this week as starting WR Jeremy Maclin’s hamstring injury does not appear to be serious, and he should play Sunday. The one area that is really hurting Philadelphia is turnovers, as the team has six giveaways during its two-game slide. On defense, the team has 12 sacks already (2nd in NFL), including four from Cullen Jenkins, four from Jason Babin and three from Trent Cole. Despite the great QB pressure, the Eagles are third-worst in the league in rushing defense, surrendering 131 rushing YPG.

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