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**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 12:24 AM

Boise State Road Favorites At Toledo Rockets

The Boise State Broncos (1-0) will get a second consecutive opportunity to make a statement on the road to start the season when facing the Toledo Rockets (1-1) in front of a nationally-televised audience on ESPN Friday night.

Kickoff at Toledo's Glass Bowl is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EST and the game will will be the second of three Boise State regular-season contests that will be televised on the ESPN family of networks in 2011.

The first such matchup saw the Broncos tally a resounding 35-21 win over the Georgia Bulldogs on Sept. 3, inside the Georgia Dome as 3-point neutral-site favorites.

Boise State opened as 19 ½-point road favorites against Toledo, but the betting odds have since dropped two points in favor of the home underdog. The Broncos occupy the No. 5 spot in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, which is a notch below their ranking in the AP Top 25 for a second consecutive week.

Last year’s meeting was the first between the two schools, and Boise State captured a dominating 57-14 win at Bronco Stadium as heavy 38-point favorites, while soaring 'over' the posted total of 60.

Quarterback Kellen Moore completed 16-of-22 passes for 267 yards to go along with three touchdowns, and comes in as the nation’s active leader in wins. He is part of a Broncos senior class that is just a win away from its 40th since arriving on campus.

Much of Moore's success can be attributed to an offensive line that didn’t surrender a sack against the Bulldogs, while finishing third nationally a season ago in fewest sacks allowed.

The Broncos are 5-for-5 in the red zone, which doesn’t bode well for a Rockets team that was out-gained by 213 yards in last year’s matchup. Bettors will continue to back Boise State due to the program’s 20-7 ATS mark in road games.

Toledo returns home after a near-miss against the Ohio State Buckeyes, falling 27-22 at Ohio Stadium last Saturday. The Rockets will need to recover emotionally if they wish to remain competitive in playing a second consecutive ranked opponent.

Wide receiver Eric Page will need to lead the way offensively, coming off a two-touchdown catch performance, while also finishing with 145 receiving yards against the Buckeyes. The All-American was one of the few bright spots in last year’s blowout loss on the blue carpet, catching 11 passes for 120 yards.

Toledo is getting absolutely no respect from the oddsmaker in this contest, as the school has played just a single contest as a home underdog of 14½-17 points over the last 19 years. It didn’t turn out very well in last year’s season opener at home against the Arizona Wildcats, falling 41-2 as 14 ½-point underdogs.

The Rockets were held to 185 yards of total offense in the humiliating loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 12:48 AM

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE...LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?

Lsu at MISSISSIPPI STATE (Thursday)...LSU has won 11 straight in series and 19 consecutive in month of September. MSU mentor Dan Mullen just 2-9 SU vs. SEC West squads (both wins vs. rival Ole Miss).. In LY's 29-7 LSU victory, Bulldogs outgained LSU 268-264, but couldn't overcome five ints. thrown by QBs Chris Relf & Tyler Russell.

Troy at ARKANSAS...Troy is 58% play as away dog since 2000 (0-1 TY), while distracted Arkansas 0-6 vs. spread as chalk in game prior to Bama battle since 2004.

Ole Miss at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered 8 of past 10 in series, including stunning 28-14 upset at Oxford LY. Commodores' new HC James Franklin attempting to guide squad to its first SEC victory in Nashville since 14-13 upset vs. Auburn back on Oct. 4, 2008, plus first spread success after ten straight home SEC losses vs. line.

Marshall at OHIO...MU (MAC member from 1997-04) has captured 10 of past 12 in "Battle for the Bell" (schools just 55 miles apart). In LY's 24-23 Herd home victory, Ohio HC Solich elected to go for win following 36-yd. TD pass with :08 left, but failed on 2-pt. conversion attempt. .

Central Michigan at WESTERN MICHIGAN...In battle of MAC West rivals, CMU has held upper hand, taking last 5 SU (4-0-1 v. spread).

Michigan State at NOTRE DAME...MSU has been a wise investment in series, posting 11-2-1 spread mark last 14 meetings. Year ago, Spartans faked FG attempt in OT, and connecting on 29-yd. TD in 34-31 victory at East Lansing. ND only 2-8-3 as South Bend chalks L2Y.

Nevada at SAN JOSE STATE...Nevada has covered 7 of past 9 in series, and SJS is a bankroll-zappin' 8-24 vs. spread last 32 on board. SJS has allowed season-high yardage in last 3 vs. Wolf Pack's "Pistol" attack, permitting 525, 665, & 640 yds. Ouch!

Syracuse at SOUTHERN CAL...USC is 1-7 last 8 as DD chalk in Coliseum. Syracuse players unfazed by long flight to Pacific Coast, having made cross-country trip to Seattle LY (lost 41-20 at U-Dub), the only spread loss for Orange away from Carrier Dome in 2010.

Penn State at TEMPLE...Penn State didn't take lead for good until third Q, but Nittany Lions dominated statistically (outgained Temple 439-202) in LY's 22-13 victory in "Happy Valley." JoePa's squad has won last 5 vs. Owls by combined 176-22 score.

Oklahoma State at TULSA...Tulsa "D" still haunted by 65-28 slaughter at Stillwater LY, when it gave up a whopping 722 yards, most since 1968! Golden Hurricane 7-3 as home dog since 2003.

Texas at UCLA...UT in ornery mood after mortifying 34-12 upset loss in Austin, which began downward spiral for Horns in 2010. UT's prideful "D" seeking redemption after allowing season-high 264 YR vs. Bruins. Horns' 14th-year HC Mack Brown lamented, "It was a rear-ending kicking, and this one's embarrassing to me."

Hawaii at UNLV...WAC co-champ UH has won/covered 4 straight vs. UNLV, including LY's 59-21 romp at Honolulu. Warriors' marvelous QB Moniz hit 29 of 43 for 380 yds. & 4 TDs. UH usually enjoys lots of support at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Louisville at KENTUCKY...UK has captured last 4 SU (3-1 vs. spread) in this Bluegrass State rivalry for the Governor's Cup. Wildcats gunning for their 22nd straight non-conference win!

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 01:06 AM

College football odds: Week 3 opening line report

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher was prepared for the onslaught of questions right off the bat. Typically, coaches don’t have to address the next game until at least the ink is dry from the boxscore on the previous game.

But not when No. 1 Oklahoma comes to town. When the Sooners are up next, the questions fly immediately.

So, Fisher was prepared Saturday night, after his No. 5-ranked Seminoles wiped up Charleston Southern, 62-10. And it’s a good thing, because the first three questions in his postgame press conference had to do with Oklahoma, not the Buccaneers.

“We’re going to continue doing the same thing we do every week,” Fisher said, without emotion. “We’ll obviously have some changes in the gameplan. But as far as preparation goes, we’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing.”

The pros in Las Vegas are wary of that. And they know that the Seminoles, under Fisher and since Bobby Bowden retired, have been on a steady climb back to national prominence. It started last year, when they won their state, so to speak, beating Miami and Florida. They also advanced to the ACC title game, and defeated South Carolina, 26-17, in their bowl game.

So, they know what Florida State is capable of, especially at home. And that respect level is shown in the line. Pete Korner of Esportclub, LLC, established Oklahoma as a 4.5-point favorite.

“This is a very interesting one,” Korner told ***********, “and it’s hard to have too big of an opinion on any one team this early in the season. Florida State is good, and can certainly win this game, but we definitely wanted more than a field goal with Oklahoma.”

Keep in mind, the Sooners hammered Florida State, 47-17, last year in Norman, Okla.

“People will remember that,” Korner said. “I can definitely see this line going up, before it goes down.”

And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games:

LSU (-3) at Mississippi State

“This should be your typical, really tight SEC night game,” Korner said. “A field goal is right where it should be, and Mississippi State, as the underdog, can definitely win this game.”

Boise State (-22) at Toledo

“Toledo did look good against Ohio State,” Korner said. “But Boise State has proven they are a team that doesn’t look ahead against anyone. When it came down to this one, it was pretty simple: I don’t want to have to be rooting for Toledo.”

Auburn (+3) at Clemson

“It’s tough to read these two teams right now,” Korner said. “Auburn has a new look, and obviously they’re struggling on defense, but they’re finding ways to pull wins out. This one is on the road, though, and if anyone’s going to win big here, it’ll be Clemson.”

Washington (+18) at Nebraska

“We’re almost always going to have a big number when it comes to Nebraska,” Korner said. “They may not be great, but the bettors don’t allow us to go low with Nebraska. I’m not a fan of Washington, but we have to roll the dice on this one.”

Tennessee (+10) at Florida

“We don’t like Tennessee, though this has the potential to be another good, early SEC game,” Korner said. “I think this is right where it should be. I don’t expect this line to move too much.”

Michigan State (+3) at Notre Dame

“Notre Dame certainly looks like they can have a great offense. But it’s on the defense now to win games,” Korner said. “This will be very tight, and don’t go into it thinking Michigan State won’t win because Notre Dame simply cannot lose three in a row. Michigan State can win this one. This is not automatic for Notre Dame.”

Texas (-4) at UCLA

“On the road, but Texas is still the better team and they should win,” Korner said. “There’s not too much recent history, and it’s definitely two different styles clashing. I think Texas is going to take care of business.”

Ohio State (+4) at Miami

“We went into this figuring that most players from Miami will be back. So, we figure more problems on the Ohio State side,” Korner said. “Miami will be healthier, and I just haven’t seen anything out of Ohio State. They are winning, but obviously, they are not clicking now.”

Stanford (-8) at Arizona

“We definitely wanted it over the touchdown mark,” Korner said. “Obviously, Andrew Luck is going to be the No. 1 pick, and so he’s going to show everything he’s got every week. And I’m not impressed with Arizona at all. If this wasn’t at Arizona, it’d be well into the double digits.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:48 PM

Oklahoma Sooners Trek To Face Florida State Seminoles

Week 3 of NCAA football betting action presents a slew of fantastic duels on the gridiron, but the showcase game of the weekend pits the Florida State Seminoles against the Oklahoma Sooners. Kickoff from Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium is set for 8:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be national TV coverage on ABC.

There hasn't been a game like this one at the Doak in quite some time. Florida State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has high hopes for the season and comes into this week ranked No. 4 in The Don Best Linemakers Poll. Head coach Jimbo Fisher and company know that a win will propel them into a position to run the table and make it to the BCS National Championship Game.

FSU hasn't had any struggles in cupcake games against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and the Charleston Southern Buccaneers, outscoring the two foes by the combined score of 96-10.

Quarterback EJ Manuel is gaining confidence with every pass, and after shaking off some opening game jitters, he settled down to have a fine performance against Charleston Southern. For the year, the junior is 46-of-69 for 581 yards with six TDs against two INTs.

The Seminoles have the No. 3 ranked defense in the nation at 137.5 YPG allowed, and this week will get a boost with the return of Telvin Smith and Greg Reid. The two were suspended last week for violating team rules, but Fisher has reinstated them in the lineup, and both will start against the Sooners.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma (1-0 SU,1-0 ATS), No. 2 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, has been taking it easy on the sidelines for a week. The Sooners were off last week after thrashing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in Week 1, 47-14.

Quarterback Landry Jones had a field day in last year's 47-17 win over FSU, going 30-of-40 for 380 yards with four TDs. Now, with Ryan Broyles once again back in the fold, the Sooners hope they can take advantage of a potentially suspect Florida State secondary that, beyond Reid, isn't highly touted.

Jones threw for 375 yards on the Golden Hurricane. Broyles caught 14 passes for 158 yards and a TD.

It's been 15 years since a team ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll has come to Tallahassee. Then-No. 1 Florida was knocked off 24-21 in 1996. Ironically on that day, Florida State was a three-point underdog, the exact same spread Oklahoma is favored by on Saturday night.

The 30-point margin of defeat the Seminoles suffered last year was their worst since getting blasted by the Tim Tebow-led Gators 45-12 in 2007.

In the only other meeting of these teams in recent history, Oklahoma also beat Florida State at the 2001 Orange Bowl, 13-2, for the National Championship.

The Sooners have won six straight games dating back to last season, and are 5-1 ATS in that stretch. The Seminoles are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six.

In respect to the total, the 'under' is 7-2 in Oklahoma's last nine games played in September, and 10-4 in FSU's last 14 games overall. However, the 'over' has cashed at an 11-3 rate in the last 14 games in which the Seminoles were underdogs.

The preseason odds for this game featured the Sooners by 2½-points, but that spread opened at 3½ to start off the week. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits right in the middle on the Don Best odds screen with Oklahoma favored by three. The total has been set at 55.

It should be a fantastic night for football with temperatures dropping into the high-60s and no chance of rain in Tallahassee.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 07:55 PM

Alabama Hosts Mean Green Of North Texas

The Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) can name the score Saturday night in Tuscaloosa when hosting the North Texas Mean Green (0-2). Kickoff for the contest is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. (ET) at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Alabama is currently the top dog in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and moved back ahead of LSU for the second spot in the AP Top 25, following an impressive 27-11 win over Penn State as 10-point road favorites.

The Crimson Tide opened up as 45-point home favorites in this contest and have actually been bet up a half-point, while the total has jumped two points from its opening number to its current position of 53 ½.

Last week’s victory moved the squad’s record to 15-5 when facing ranked opponents, while also moving the program to a perfect 14-0 mark in September games since the start of the 2008 campaign.

Sophomore quarterback AJ McCarron has likely moved atop head coach Nick Saban’s depth chart at the position, completing 19-of-31 passes for 163 yards in his first road game at Beaver Stadium.

The team finished with 359 total yards of offense and held the Nittany Lions quarterback tandem to 12-of-39 passing and 144 combined passing yards.

Alabama leads the all-time series with North Texas, 3-0, coming away with a 53-7 victory as 37-point home favorites on Sept. 9, 2009. The team finished that particular contest with a 336-yard advantage in total yards.

Bettors will find that the Crimson Tide will likely shut first teamers down quickly in this contest due to opening their Southeastern Conference schedule the following week with a vist from the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The second-ranked team in the land is 10-1 ATS against non-conference opponents and the ‘over’ is 7-3 in those games.

North Texas is likely to fly out of Alabama with an 0-3 record when the weekend comes to a close, but the program has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation through the opening three weeks. The Mean Green dropped a 41-16 decision to Florida International Panthers as 13 ½-point road underdogs in the opening week and are coming off a 48-23 loss to the Houston Cougars as 20-point home underdogs.

As a current member of the Sun Belt Conference, the team has tallied a 3-32 record when stepping up in class and playing teams from the SEC. The program is 2-7 ATS in its last nine opportunities in facing the nation’s top conference.

Running back Lance Dunbar has yet to get on track during the 2011 campaign, being held to under 100 yards rushing in the first two games. He’s never been held under the century mark in three consecutive games since taking over the starting role in 2009.

The streak is likely to continue in facing a defensive unit that has limited opponents to under 300 yards of total offense 31 times in Saban’s 56 games on campus.

Mostly clear skies are in the forecast for Saturday's matchup. Expect the thermometer in the mid-70s at kickoff.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 08:50 PM

4th Quarter Covers

September 13, 2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week including the epic Michigan-Notre Dame game. Each week there are teams that cover that didn’t deserve to and teams that likely should have taken the cash, get the details in this weekly column.

NCAA

Arizona State (-10) 37, Missouri 30

Arizona State took a 30-16 lead early in the fourth quarter, appearing poised to pull away for a comfortable win against Missouri Friday night. The Tigers answered however and then got a big stop to set up the tying score with less than three minutes to go in the game. Missouri was able to get the ball back and moved into field goal position but the 48-yard try missed. Arizona State scored in overtime but Missouri’s offense could not match the score, though the Tigers took the spread victory.

Kentucky (-10) 27, Central Michigan 13

For the second straight week Kentucky went late into the game before getting much of anything going on offense. Central Michigan led 13-6 at halftime but the Wildcats got a few big plays late in the third quarter to take the lead for the first time. With just seconds left in the third quarter Josh Clemons broke an 87-yard run to put Kentucky up 20-13, still short of the double-digit spread. Central Michigan was stopped after a long drive and then Kentucky burned the clock with a 13-play 85-yard drive to bring the margin to 14. Central Michigan had backdoor cover potential with the subsequent drive reaching the red zone but an interception ended the effort.

South Carolina (-3) 45, Georgia 42

This SEC opener featured a wild finish as South Carolina took an 8-point lead into the final quarter. Early in the final frame Georgia connected for a touchdown pass and then went for 2, getting the conversion to tie the game. After a South Carolina field goal, Georgia took the lead 35-31 with a 15-yard run with just over six minutes to go in the game. South Carolina answered quickly, going nearly 80 yards in three minutes to go up by three. Georgia then fumbled on the next possession, returned for a touchdown with just over three minutes to go, leaving South Carolina up by ten. Georgia would force a push with a quick scoring drive but they would not have the chance to get the ball again as the Gamecocks ran out the clock for the win.

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Virginia (-7.5) 34, Indiana 31

Virginia appeared in complete control against Indiana, leading 23-3 in the third quarter. Indiana scored to cut the lead to 23-10 and then got on a roll in the fourth quarter. Indiana scored early in the fourth to move to within six-points and then forced a fumble on Virginia’s next possession, returning the fumble 54 yards for a touchdown and the first lead for the Hoosiers. Indiana then quickly got the ball back with an interception and went right down the field to take a 31-23 lead with just over six minutes to go. Virginia put together a strong response with a long scoring drive and the 2-point conversion to tie the game with just over a minute to go. Rather than playing for overtime, Indiana was aggressive and a fumble after a sack gave Virginia the ball in field position to kick the winning field goal in the final seconds, although it was not enough to cover the spread.

Texas (-7.5) 17, BYU 16

The Longhorns had a very slow start to the game and eventually benched QB Garrett Gilbert and went with the McCoy and Ash tandem the rest of the way. Four players completed passes for Texas in the game as BYU built a 13-0 lead in the second quarter. Texas chipped away but trailed 16-10 entering the fourth quarter. Texas went deep into BYU territory early in the final frame but came away with zero points but the defense did not allow a first down in the fourth quarter. Texas scored on its next possession to lead 17-16 and the ball twice more, and needed one touchdown to cover the spread despite the early deficit. The game ended with Texas deep in BYU territory and the Cougars out of timeouts. One more broken tackle on the final first down rush would have earned a cover for Texas.

Arkansas (-37.5) 52, New Mexico 3

The Razorbacks out-gained the Lobos by a 2:1 margin but they were short of the spread entering the fourth quarter. Even with reserves in the game Arkansas was able to pad the score with two fourth quarter touchdowns to add to the blowout margin and cash heavy favorite tickets.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) 24, Connecticut 21

The Huskies and Commodores were locked in a tight game as Connecticut took a 14-3 halftime lead to 14-13 after a blocked punt recovery in the third quarter. Connecticut got more good fortune in the fourth quarter with a 64-yard fumble return touchdown and with a successful 2-point conversion the Huskies led 21-14 halfway through the final frame as underdogs. The turnover favor was returned however as Vanderbilt got a 50-yard interception return touchdown to tie the game with less than seven minutes to go. Vanderbilt held on defense and got the ball back and less than three minutes to go the Commodores got a field goal to win and cover.

USC (-7.5) 23, Utah 14

USC and Utah were locked in a tight defensive battle all night with USC leading 17-14 entering the fourth quarter. A lot of late action on Utah forced what was once a double-digit spread to just over a touchdown and books seemed to get their wish after eight fourth quarter punts, Utah’s potential game-tying field goal attempt was blocked and returned for a touchdown in the final seconds. Several players ran on the field to join Torin Harris in his run to the end zone and it was assumed that the touchdown would not count due to the unsportsmanlike penalty, leaving the final at 17-14. Underdog tickets were paid but then two hours later the Pac-12 ruled that the score did count leaving the final at 23-14 and USC tickets had to be paid as well for a brutal double-burn at several books.

Michigan 35 (+3) Notre Dame 31

Notre Dame appeared to be in complete control in the first night game at the Big House but the turnover issues kept popping up. The Irish still led 24-7 entering the fourth quarter with massive yardage edges as well. Michigan started to get some things going on offense with a four-play drive to score early in the fourth quarter. A quick defensive stop set up another Michigan score to trim the lead to 24-21 before the teams traded turnovers. Notre Dame had the ball up three with less than four minutes to go but could not convert a first down and had to punt the ball back. In just over a minute Michigan went 58 yards to take the lead, leaving just over a minute on the clock. A big pass interference penalty and a couple of quick plays led Notre Dame to what appeared to be a miraculous score taking a 31-28 lead and at least pushing on the closing line for many backers. Michigan was given 30 seconds to work with however and incredibly Denard Robinson hit Jeremy Gallon on one sideline and he traversed 64 yards while getting out of bounds on the other sideline, leaving a few seconds left on the clock for a final play. Robinson threw up a ball that WR Roy Roundtree went and got and Michigan completed a historic comeback in an incredible fourth quarter.

NFL

Green Bay (-5) 42, New Orleans 34

It seemed as if the defending Super Bowl champion Packers were in control the entire game but New Orleans wouldn’t go away. Late in the third quarter the Saints were stopped deep in Packers territory going for it on fourth down to leave the deficit at eight entering the fourth quarter. The Packers then pushed the lead to 42-27 with less than twelve minutes to go. The Saints were forced to punt on its next possession but then put together a quick scoring drive once they got the ball back to get the margin back to eight with just over two minutes to go. As was often the case last season despite the great year, the Packers offense could not put a team away late and the defense had to go back on the field as the Saints made the stop and used timeouts to get the ball back with just over a minute to go. New Orleans moved right down the field with a few big plays and ultimately was stopped at the goal line on rushing play up the middle. The Saints would have needed a 2-point conversion to tie the game but the scored would have flipped the spread winner in an exciting opening game.

Jacksonville (+1) 16, Tennessee 14

The cover on this game was more about when you played it as Jacksonville was favored by 3 early in the week. The release of QB David Garrard brought the line down to 2 at most spots and action over the weekend eventually flipped the line as Tennessee closed as a late favorite. You could have had a win, a push, or a loss on either side depending on your timing and there were likely some fortunate folks that caught the middle, taking Tennessee early in the week at +3 and then getting the Jags at -1 or +1 on Sunday. Jacksonville was in control most of the game but the conservative offense could not pull away, leading 13-7 entering the fourth quarter as the Titans hit an 80-yard pass play late in the third to finally have a positive drive. Jacksonville added a field goal early in the fourth and after swapping punts the Titans got in the end zone again to bring the margin to 16-14 with just over three minutes to go. The Titans were able to get the ball back and got to mid-field but QB Matt Hasselbeck was intercepted taking a shot down field to seal the game.

Arizona (-7) 28, Carolina 21

The Panthers surprised a lot of people with an aggressive offensive game plan with rookie QB Cam Newton. Newton had a few mistakes but ultimately played well and impressively passed for 422 yards in a dynamic debut. Kevin Kolb’s debut for Arizona started slowly but he had an efficient game rallying Arizona back from an early deficit. Carolina led 14-7 at the half and then 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. Kolb hit a 70-yard pass play for a tying touchdown early in the fourth and then on Carolina’s next possession a punt turned into a touchdown with rookie Patrick Peterson delivering an 89-yard return for the 7-point lead that would be the final margin. The Panthers had a chance to tie late in the game with a penalty-aided drive deep into Arizona territory but the Panthers came up a yard shy. The line on this game had been steady at -7 all week and a push was ultimately the result.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 08:50 PM

News & Notes - Week 3

September 13, 2011

Week 3

Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma State dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD's on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished 42-53-397...

Florida International got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL's first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret'd it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB's and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led 21-3. UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing 24-10 they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within 24-17 but FIU rec'd the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...

It was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona State. Each team settled for a some FG's after long drives and MO led 16-10 at the half thanks to a blk'd xp. ASU scored TD's on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led 30-16 with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl'd the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO's next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...

Oregon State came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained 397-284 but didn't do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead 21-0. Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl'd at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...

It's not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan State held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a 434-48 yd edge...

Army did have a 446-292 yd edge vs San Diego State but were -3 in TO's. Army fmbl'd at the SDSt42, fmbl'd at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was 14-14 at the half with Army having a 245-130 yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...

Toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio State having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in '98 and '09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead 21-15. In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a 338-301 yd edge...

Illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and 519-96 yd edges. South Dakota State did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O'Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...

Tough loss for Central Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a 227-93 yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, 20-13 and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a 383-344 yd edge but lost by double digits...

Alabama's D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a 171-92 yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led 17-3. Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD's. Penn State then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...

North Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outFD'd 19-17 but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a 286-91 yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO's, only led 17-12. They led 24-15 with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU's last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...

Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Mississippi State after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA's longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led 34-24 at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding 41-27 lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl'd at the half yd line...

Iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa State but it was 10-10 at the half. ISU led 17-16 but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up 24-17. ISU's last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT's with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since 2006...

East Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD's vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk'd 5 times. Virginia Tech did have 20-11 FD and 332-112 yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their 17-10 win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int'd in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT's winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC's last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...

Idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD's and UI's D had 2 IR TD's. UI finished with 424-197 yd and 23-11 FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when North Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead 31-14. They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the 44-14 final...

Tulsa/Tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int'd and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN's first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead 31-3. TLN fmbl'd at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...

The key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD's on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a 611-169 yd edge...

Ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and 392-124 yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl'd, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl'd at the GW47, were int'd at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...

Dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit 10-14-104 yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj'd his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the Eastern Illinois 22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW 437-341...

Nothing misleading about the Washington State/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit 24-32-361 and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV's only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU's final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk'd...

Southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, 17-10. In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk'd. SM fmbl'd at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl'd for a safety and MU led 26-17. SM fmbl'd at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec'd the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...

New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a 21-14 lead and a 271-199 yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int'd in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it 28-28 but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD's' and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret'd UM's 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...

Texas/BYU was played in 98 degrees heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a 201?67 yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB's Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int's and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl'd at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x...

Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It's extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD's go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the South Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG's and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb'r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading 20-14 and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl'd when SC ret'd it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd "drive" for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead 28-20. UGA tied it and then retook the lead 35-31 but again was sk'd & fmbl'd and SC ret'd it for a TD. At the end, SC rec'd an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD's vs UGA and they only lost by 3...

Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD's and a blk'd punt for a TD. CT fmbl'd at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD's combined and 7 punts and 2 TO's. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk'd a punt for a TD, 14-13 and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead 21-14. VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 08:51 PM

GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE

Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG's on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD's and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD's but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P's head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up 25-0. UF had a 308-95 yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl'd then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with 512-212 yd and 28-11 FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn't play the opening weekend were blown out...

Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a 69-20 win. The loss snapped Nevada's 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit 21-35-219 yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led 55-13 after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD's in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left.

REPLACEMENTS

Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at North Carolina State hit 24-41-315 yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down 34-13. At the half Wake Forest had a 278-127 yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj'd in Wk1. He ret'd to the lineup and hit 22-35-297 yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within 34-27 on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt's final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass.

POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME

Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting 18-25-315 yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int'd and ret'd 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a 370-192 yd edge and led 28-14. Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed 38-26. They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 and instead of only trailing 38-33 it was an 8 pt game at 40-32. UW rec'd the onside kick...

USC had a 416-319 yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int'd at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl'd and Utah which had been outgained 239-68 drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at 10-7. USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it 17-14. USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret'd for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced 17-14. The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it 23-14 and giving USC the frontdoor cover.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a 416-410 yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yards in the 4Q when trailing 35-9. TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score 35-12 and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD's and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, 35-19. Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...

Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are 17-0-1 vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and 501-216 yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a safety with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD's to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired incomplete on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2011, 08:51 PM

Games to Watch - Week 3

September 13, 2011

Thursday - LSU at Mississippi State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most books had LSU favored by three or 3 ½ with a total of 48 1/2. The Tigers have to go on the road on a short week of preparation for Thursday's game in Starkville, but they are coming off an easy 49-7 home win over Northwestern St. On the other hand, Mississippi St. is off a 60-minute battle at Auburn that went down to the final play. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Dan Mullen didn't call for a pass - that would've resulted in a subsequent snap - and the final play was stuffed inches short of the end zone. The 41-34 loss at AU leaves MSU in desperation mode, but a win over LSU will have the Bulldogs right back in the SEC West mix. However, LSU has won 11 in a row against MSU and has an 11-3 spread record in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. The 'over' had cashed in six straight MSU-LSU games before last year's encounter saw the 'under' prevail. LSU needed a goal-line stand at crunch time to beat MSU by a 30-26 count two years ago. Russell Shepard, LSU's starting WR, will not play (suspension) but can return next week at WVU.

Saturday - Auburn at Clemson (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most spots were listing Clemson as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 59. Dabo Swinney's squad trailed Troy at halftime in Week 1, only to outscore the Trojans 30-3 in the second half en route to a 43-19 victory. Clemson struggled for four full quarters last week, eventually beating Wofford by a 35-27 score. Auburn wasn't impressive in its opener, needing 10 points in the last 2:07 to rally past Utah St. for a 42-38 triumph. Gene Chizik's team played much better in Week 2, knocking off Mississippi St. 41-34 as a six-point home underdog. Barrett Trotter has played well at QB, throwing five TD passes compared to only one interception so far. When these teams met last year, Clemson raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead but Cam Newton rallied Auburn to a 27-24 win in overtime. During Chizik's tenure to date, AU has compiled a 2-2 spread record in four road underdog situations. As for Clemson, it is 7-6 ATS as a home 'chalk' under Swinney.

Saturday - Tennessee at Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

The early action Sunday night came in on Tennessee, prompting the line to move from nine to 8 ½. But the Monday money was all Gators, who were 9 ½-point home ‘chalk’ late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened at 50 ½. Florida has covered the number in back-to-back home wins over FAU (41-3) and UAB (39-0). Meanwhile, UT quarterback Tyler Bray has played lights out in wins over Montana (42-16) and Cincy (45-23). Bray threw for a career-high 405 yards and had five TDs (4 passing, 1 rushing) against the Bearcats. UF is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2007. The Gators have won six in a row over the Vols, beating them by double-digit margins in each of the last four meetings. UT has seen the ‘over’ cash at a lucrative 11-3 clip on Derek Dooley’s watch.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Michigan State at Notre Dame - As of Tuesday, most books had Notre Dame installed as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. The Irish have lost a pair of nail-biters to start the year, falling 23-20 at home to USF before losing 35-31 at Michigan. Brian Kelly's team gave up a 16-yard TD pass with two ticks remaining at The Big House. Turnovers were the Irish's undoing, as they committed five of them. Michigan St. has won a pair of home games against soft competition, beating Youngstown St. 28-6 before dealing out cream-cheese treatment in a 44-0 win over FAU. Kirk Cousins is one of the Big Ten's top QBs, throwing for three TDs without an interception in the Spartans' first two games. B.J. Cunningham (14 catches for 203 yards) is his favorite target.

Stanford at Arizona - As of Tuesday, most spots had Stanford tabbed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 54. Andrew Luck has led the Cardinal to a pair of easy wins and covers vs. San Jose St. and at Duke. He has six TD passes and only one interception to date. Arizona is coming off a 37-14 loss at Oklahoma St. last Thursday. The Wildcats will once again be without their star WR Julian Criner, who recently underwent an appendectomy. Gamblers have feasted on Arizona as a home underdog during Mike Stoops' eight-year tenure, cashing tickets at a 12-4-1 clip in 17 such spots. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS when catching double digits at home under Stoops.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2011, 02:30 AM

Wiz of Odds: Parlay cards fun play or sucker bet?

My father Ed has never been much of a gambler. Years ago, he was traveling through Minnesota and decided to stop at a local casino. OK, the sign that advertised the $2.99 all-you-can-eat breakfast got him in the door.

Once inside, he surveyed the crowd of septuagenarians who seemed under a spell watching lemons, oranges, apples, lemons, oranges, apples, continuously spinning. He made a note to himself that he would not risk his retirement fund on the whim of some slot machine.

“It’s amazing how fast people want to give away their money,” Ed said, shaking his head.

He saddled into a seat at the counter and ordered the pancakes. My dad is no fool. Slot machines are by far the biggest moneymaker in the casino industry.

Although they seldom offer a decent payout to a customer, the machines never ask for a day off, they don’t require benefits such as health insurance or a 401k plan. It’s easy to see why gambling houses love slots.

For some of the same reasons, gambling houses embrace parlay cards.

Parlays offer a gambler a big payoff with minimal investment. Odds on a two-team parlay are generally 13/5. A three-teamer is 6/1. Pick four winners and it’s 10/1. It all seems so easy.

Yes, a parlay is a sucker bet and the chances of winning are about the same as playing slots. But we’re trying to beat the system, right?

So if you can’t resist the urge to parlay up, perhaps this method of madness used by one of my trusted buddies in Las Vegas will do the trick.

Each week during the college football season, he puts 100 simoleons on a two-team parlay. If it hits, he gets back 360 simoleons (the 260 payout plus his original 100 investment).

He’ll then reinvest 330 simoleons on one game. Lose and he’s out 70 simoleons. Win and he gets back 630, a profits of 560.

Even if he loses the 100 on the front end, he has to hit the back-to-back wager only once in every five tries to stay ahead of the game.

Patience is the key.

“I don’t necessarily roll it back in the same day,” he says. “I like to savior the victory for a while and then fire up on one game to bring the money home. The two-teamer is just a feeler.”

Three-team parlays are strictly forbidden.

“A two-team parlay saves you vigorish in the long run where a consistent three-team parlay bettor will eventually have to get a second job,” he says.
He sometimes tweaks the bet on the back end by not taking the 30 simoleon profit and putting in an additional 25 simoleons in play to make the all-or-nothing wager 385 to win 350.

If it hits, he gets back 735 from the investment of 125.

“That means I have to hit only once in six times to essentially break even,” he says.

His reason for wagering this way is simple.

“I have trouble laying points,” he says. “I don’t mind taking points, but often I’d rather just play odds.

“The sad thing is, in all 7-point favorites — if you bet them straight up to win — you have to lay odds usually around 3/1. That means you have to win 75 percent of the time to break even.”

He pointed to games last Saturday involving Iowa and Mississippi State. Iowa, on the road at Iowa State, was a 6.5-point favorite and -250 to win outright. Mississippi State was a 5.5-point favorite at Auburn and -225 on the moneyline. Both teams lost.

Nonetheless, moneyline bets remain popular, even with the long odds. And much like parlay bets, they target the low-risk bettor looking for high reward.
But again, we’re all just trying to beat the system, right?

WEEK 2 IMPRESSIONS

Is Steele Jantz the real deal? The Iowa State quarterback struggled mightily in his first three quarters against Division I-AA Northern Iowa, but he has been nothing short of electrifying since, leading the Cyclones to consecutive come-from-behind victories.

Iowa State hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2005. On Friday night, the Cyclones are slight underdogs at Connecticut. Hmmm.

I suspect Ohio State has been practicing for the Miami game since the beginning of fall drills, perhaps earlier.

If Brian Kelly can’t win at Notre Dame, nobody can.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2011, 02:35 AM

Exposing the Top 25: Where the NCAAF polls went wrong

Each week throughout the college football season, we dissect the new Top 25 rankings and post what we feel is our most overrated team, most underrated team, and an unranked team that should be in the Top 25.

MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: Nebraska Cornhuskers

While the Cornhuskers do belong in the Top 25, I'm not so sure their early-season performances warrant a Top-10 ranking.

The Huskers may resolve a few of their issues in practice this week, but they have slipped into an alarming trend of starting games with little energy and direction. Bo Pelini is 32-12 SU so far in Lincoln and win or lose, his team always came to play. But that hasn't been the case in their previous three games going back to last season's bowl game - an ugly loss to Washington, which happens to be this week's opponent.

Nebraska has looked flat at the start of the game and at the start of the second half for three straight outings. And the passing game has been little more than "throw deep and pray." The offensive line is young and having trouble opening running lanes. And the defensive line, which is supposed to be the strength of the team, was MIA against Fresno State, who started a brand new offensive line, Saturday.

Maybe the Big Red rights the ship this week, but for now they're laying sizeable points and they are my most overrated Top-25 team.

MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: None

I could easily put Virginia Tech in this slot because the Hokies did drop a couple of rungs in the latest rankings. And I did believe they were underrated in the polls in last week's article.

I still believe this team is better than where they're ranked, but I can't argue with the fact that they lost a few votes after a shaky performance against an East Carolina defense that leaves a lot to be desired. Unfortunately, with their schedule, we won’t find out the true strength of the Hokies for a couple more weeks.

It's a rare week when I feel that the polls, other than Nebraska, are on target.

UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: Central Florida Golden Knights

The Golden Knights quietly slammed Boston College 30-3, just one week after a 62-0 win over FCS Charleston Southern. T

Central Florida is fresh off of an 11-3 conference-winning season and a win over the Georgia Bulldogs in the Liberty Bowl. The defense was outstanding, despite returning just four starters. Jeff Godfrey is arguably the best QB in C-USA and the team owns the top running back tandem, as well. They outgained Boston College by a 422-141 margin, including a 235-57 yardage advantage on the ground.

This weekend's visit to Florida International promises to be a fantastic matchup that most college football fans won't even know about. If UCF gets by FIU, they had better be ranked next Monday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2011, 02:37 AM

NCAAF betting: Targeting midweek line moves

Here's a quick look at a number of games that are seeing some early line movement ahead of this weekend's contests.

NCAAF Week 3 Live Odds

No. 4 Boise State at Toledo (20.5, 58.5)

Most books opened with Toledo set as a 17.5-point home underdog this week but that line has quickly moved to +20.5.

Toledo took Ohio State down to the wire in a 27-22 loss as a 17.5-point underdog last weekend, while Boise State is coming off a bye.

“We almost pulled off a huge upset,” Toledo running back Adonis Thomas told reporters. “To be in the same situation again with a fourth-ranked opponent, we know what we have to do to get the win.”

Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-8.5, 56)

Western Michigan was a 6.5-point favorite at the open until bettors got their hands on it. Now you’ll see the Broncos set at -8.5 across the board.

Central Michigan, which held a lead at Kentucky before dropping a 27-13 decision as a 10-point underdog, is actually 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five games against Western Michigan.

Akron at Cincinnati (-34.5, 56)

Oddsmakers can’t set this line high enough right now. They opened with the Bearcats set at -30 and it’s already up to -34.5. Cincinnati is looking to bounce back after a blowout loss to the Volunteers.

Meanwhile, the terrible Akron Zips are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games in September and 3-7 against the number in their last 10 road games. They have been outscored 83-3 in two games this season.

Kent State at Kansas State (-17.5, N/A)

The books sent out Kansas State as around a two-touchdown favorite, but that line has moved to -17.5 in just over the last two days. K-State pulled off a 10-7 comeback win over Eastern Kentucky but couldn’t come close to covering as a 26-point favorite. They had a bye last week so maybe that will help the club work the kinks out.

No. 18 Arizona State at Illinois (-1.5, N/A)

Illinois was originally pegged as a 1.5-point underdog. The spread has flipped since then, now favoring the Fighting Illini by 1.5 points.

Arizona State escaped with an overtime victory at home to Mizzou last weekend after MU missed a field goal late in regulation, but couldn’t cover as a 10-point favorite. The Sun Devils are now 0-2 against the number to start the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2011, 02:41 AM

Ear to the gridiron: Big Ten betting news and notes

Michigan madness

The Wolverines are 2-0 and they just won the most exciting game of the season. Fans are giddy. There’s a problem, though. The team is pretty terrible. The offense is wildly inconsistent and only Denard Robinson’s magic and some horrible secondary play by Notre Dame got them the win.

The defense is better than last year, but that’s not saying much and they are still far from good. Michigan has an incredible amount of work to do before conference play starts. It plays a hopelessly-outclassed Eastern Michigan squad next time out, so it’s a perfect opportunity to work on those weaknesses.

If the Wolverines don’t look like a more polished, disciplined team on Saturday, then there are serious issues. Michigan is favored by 29 points.

Kirk Cousins seeks revenge

Two years ago, Cousins had a chance to lead his Michigan State Spartans to a win in South Bend, but he threw a lousy interception late in the game to seal the Notre Dame victory. Now he has revenge on his mind, and he has a better team around him than he did then.

Notre Dame has all sorts of vulnerabilities to exploit. If the Spartans can expose them, then it’s really time to start believing in MSU. The Irish are favored by 5.5.

Jerry Kill falls ill

The new Minnesota coach has a history of seizures, and the problem struck again late in his home debut against New Mexico State Saturday. He’s reportedly fine, but he likely won’t return to practice until at least Wednesday.

Kill has the Gophers working well together despite two losses, and against USC in the opener, they showed some periodic flashes of brilliance. This is a team that can’t afford any distractions, though, so it will be very important to watch how Kill recovers and whether his issues limit him in coming weeks.

Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Miami-Ohio.

Dave Doeren goes home

Doeren, the former popular Wisconsin defensive coordinator, became the first assistant who served under Bret Bielema to get a head coaching gig when he took over at Northern Illinois in the offseason. Now Doeren brings his squad to Madison for the biggest game of his career.

Doeren and the Huskies are obviously badly outmatched by the Badgers, but they will have more insight to their opponents than most teams could ever dream of. Can Doeren and company make this one at least interesting? The Badgers are favored by 16 points.

Penn State QB issues

Having two starting quarterbacks is only slightly better than having none. The Nittany Lions were one of many teams that came into the season with unresolved QB questions. Unfortunately, while others have figured things out, Penn State doesn’t seem any closer to a resolution.

The lack of a chosen starter has unquestionably been a distraction that is hurting the team. If Joe Paterno still wants to prove he can coach, he needs to make a statement, pick a horse to run with, and let things turn out as they will.

This week the Lions visit Temple where they’re favored by 9.5 points. This would be the perfect chance to pick a starter and let him build confidence.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2011, 07:10 PM

Spartans Next Up For Winless Notre Dame

Michigan State is No. 14 in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been anything but lucky in their first two games of the season. They may need some luck to notch their first victory of the season on Saturday against the 14th-ranked Michigan State Spartans and reverse a strong trend favoring the road team in this annual matchup.

Game time is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) with national television coverage provided by NBC.

Notre Dame opened as a 5-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with early betting action on Michigan State pushing the line down to 4 ½ in some places. The total opened at 49 ½ and has risen as high as 51 so far.

The Irish (0-2) have lost their first two games by a combined seven points, failing to cover the spread in both of them as favorites. They took a 24-7 lead into the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium last Saturday in the first-ever night game there before an NCAA-record 114,804 fans.

But Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson threw three touchdown passes for the Wolverines in the fourth quarter as the home team outscored the visitors 28-7 the rest of the way in a 35-31 victory.

Meanwhile, the Spartans (2-0) are coming off a pair of very easy wins against weak opponents, beating Youngstown State and Florida Atlanta by a combined score of 72-6. They split two games against the spread with the total going ‘under’ in both.

Michigan State should be prepared for a much higher-scoring game here though since the ‘over’ is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Notre Dame would seem to have an edge as the host this week against the Spartans, but the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games between them. The home team has won the last three meetings straight up after the road team had won each of the previous seven.

Last year’s game between the two midwestern schools ended in dramatic fashion, with Michigan State’s Aaron Bates throwing a game-winning 29-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Gantt on a fake field-goal in overtime. The Irish had kicked a 33-yard field goal on their first possession but lost to the Spartans for the third time in four years, 34-31.

Notre Dame quarterback Dayne Crist threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns in that game and will be watching this year’s meeting from the bench. Crist was benched at halftime of the team’s 23-20 home loss to South Florida in the season opener and replaced by Tommy Rees, who started at Michigan and threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions.

The Irish will be without starting tight end Mike Ragone after he underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered against the Wolverines. Ragone is not much of a receiving threat and known more for his blocking, as he has made only 11 catches in his entire career, including one last week.

South Bend's forecast for Saturday's tilt could not be any better with clear skies and the afternoon high hitting 72.

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