The Bum's CFB Week # 3 Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Texas A&M Expected To Roll Idaho Vandals

The Aggies are 5-TD favorites at home Saturday vs. the Idaho Vandals.
Mike Sherman insists that his team is not bothered by any conference realignment talk. The Texas Aggies certainly looked focused on football in their season opener, and now seek another dubya when the Idaho Vandals come to College Station this Saturday night.

Opening odds at Don Best had Texas A&M giving 36, and that's down to 35½ at most windows. The total opened at 54½, but has since risen a full two points.

A lot of silliness and petty grudges are currently blocking the Aggies and their desire to move to the Southeastern Conference. But mostly it's the lawyers and money that could keep A&M in the Big 12, or whatever it becomes. One thing you know won't prevail is any common sense. Back to the football game.

The No. 11 Aggies looked pretty darn good in a 46-14 win two weeks ago over Southern Methodist. Defense set up an early 14-0 lead and the offense put the last 26 points of the game on the board. Texas A&M had the 14½-point cover heading into the locker room ahead 33-14.

This performance came about a week after I told Don Best's Kenny White that my, er, the Aggies were overrated. It's a prediction that could still pan out, especially once A&M gets into what could be their final Big 12 schedule. This will be the last game that's anything close to a cakewalk until the Aggies take on Kansas State and Kansas back-to-back in November; a home tilt with Oklahoma State and a trip to Cowboys Stadium to collide with Arkansas await A&M the next two weeks.

As exciting as Ryan Tannehill, Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael were on the offensive side in the SMU game, the defense answered the bell very well in the win over the Mustangs. The unit entered the season with the most question marks, a very big one being the loss of Von Miller, now of the Denver Broncos.

Tony Jerod-Eddie led a very good day for the defensive line while Sean Porter topped the linebacker play. The LB corps will have some extra depth for this contest with sophomore Damontre Moore back from his suspension.

Senior Trent Hunter and junior Steven Campbell were the DB's who picked off the two early Kyle Padron passes in the game against the Mustangs. That led to a QB change that immediately brought dividends for June Junes and the SMU offense before the Aggies defense went into bend, no-break scheme.

It's the first road contest of the year for head coach Robb Akey and the Vandals. Idaho (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) dropped its season opener to Bowling Green, 32-15, as a 6-point favorite before taking those frustrations out on the Fighting Sioux of North Dakota this past Saturday, 44-14, in a game that didn't make the college football betting board.

The Vandals fell behind Bowling Green early due to breakdowns in pass coverage before the Falcons let the running game take things over. Three turnovers also didn't help the Idaho cause, and from the Don Best Obvious Statement Department, playing mistake-free ball is imperative in this contest.

Taking the crowd out of the game will be impossible. The Aggies will show up wanting this to become a kissing contest; if you know anything about Texas A&M traditions, then you know what I mean by that.

It could easily become one of those 56-7 games. An Idaho cover will depend on when Sherman pulls the bulk of his starters in the second half.

Kickoff from Kyle Field is set for 7:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX Sports Southwest providing the broadcast via pay-per-view. The Lone Star State recently enjoyed a brief respite from the heat wave, but Saturday's forecast remains a hot one with the thermometer likely still in low-90s for the start.

I don't believe any rain is in the forecast for this part of the world until sometime after the end of the Mayan calendar

[StarDust Bum]

News & Notes - Week 3

September 14, 2011

Week 3

Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma State dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD's on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished 42-53-397...

Florida International got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL's first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret'd it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB's and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led 21-3. UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing 24-10 they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within 24-17 but FIU rec'd the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...

It was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona State. Each team settled for a some FG's after long drives and MO led 16-10 at the half thanks to a blk'd xp. ASU scored TD's on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led 30-16 with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl'd the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO's next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...

Oregon State came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained 397-284 but didn't do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead 21-0. Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl'd at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...

It's not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan State held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a 434-48 yd edge...

Army did have a 446-292 yd edge vs San Diego State but were -3 in TO's. Army fmbl'd at the SDSt42, fmbl'd at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was 14-14 at the half with Army having a 245-130 yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...

Toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio State having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in '98 and '09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead 21-15. In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a 338-301 yd edge...

Illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and 519-96 yd edges. South Dakota State did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O'Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...

Tough loss for Central Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a 227-93 yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, 20-13 and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a 383-344 yd edge but lost by double digits...

Alabama's D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a 171-92 yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led 17-3. Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD's. Penn State then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...

North Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outFD'd 19-17 but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a 286-91 yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO's, only led 17-12. They led 24-15 with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU's last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...

Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Mississippi State after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA's longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led 34-24 at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding 41-27 lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl'd at the half yd line...

Iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa State but it was 10-10 at the half. ISU led 17-16 but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up 24-17. ISU's last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT's with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since 2006...

East Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD's vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk'd 5 times. Virginia Tech did have 20-11 FD and 332-112 yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their 17-10 win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int'd in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT's winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC's last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...

Idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD's and UI's D had 2 IR TD's. UI finished with 424-197 yd and 23-11 FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when North Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead 31-14. They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the 44-14 final...

Tulsa/Tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int'd and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN's first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead 31-3. TLN fmbl'd at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...

The key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD's on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a 611-169 yd edge...

Ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and 392-124 yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl'd, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl'd at the GW47, were int'd at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...

Dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit 10-14-104 yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj'd his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the Eastern Illinois 22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW 437-341...

Nothing misleading about the Washington State/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit 24-32-361 and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV's only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU's final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk'd...

Southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, 17-10. In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk'd. SM fmbl'd at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl'd for a safety and MU led 26-17. SM fmbl'd at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec'd the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...

New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a 21-14 lead and a 271-199 yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int'd in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it 28-28 but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD's' and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret'd UM's 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...

Texas/BYU was played in 98 degrees heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a 201?67 yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB's Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int's and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl'd at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x...

Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It's extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD's go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the South Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG's and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb'r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading 20-14 and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl'd when SC ret'd it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd "drive" for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead 28-20. UGA tied it and then retook the lead 35-31 but again was sk'd & fmbl'd and SC ret'd it for a TD. At the end, SC rec'd an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD's vs UGA and they only lost by 3...

Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD's and a blk'd punt for a TD. CT fmbl'd at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD's combined and 7 punts and 2 TO's. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk'd a punt for a TD, 14-13 and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead 21-14. VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left.

GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE

Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG's on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD's and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD's but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P's head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up 25-0. UF had a 308-95 yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl'd then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with 512-212 yd and 28-11 FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn't play the opening weekend were blown out...

Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a 69-20 win. The loss snapped Nevada's 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit 21-35-219 yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led 55-13 after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD's in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left.

REPLACEMENTS

Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at North Carolina State hit 24-41-315 yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down 34-13. At the half Wake Forest had a 278-127 yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj'd in Wk1. He ret'd to the lineup and hit 22-35-297 yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within 34-27 on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt's final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass.

POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME

Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting 18-25-315 yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int'd and ret'd 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a 370-192 yd edge and led 28-14. Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed 38-26. They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 and instead of only trailing 38-33 it was an 8 pt game at 40-32. UW rec'd the onside kick...

USC had a 416-319 yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int'd at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl'd and Utah which had been outgained 239-68 drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at 10-7. USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it 17-14. USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret'd for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced 17-14. The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it 23-14 and giving USC the frontdoor cover.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a 416-410 yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yards in the 4Q when trailing 35-9. TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score 35-12 and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD's and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, 35-19. Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...

Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are 17-0-1 vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and 501-216 yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a safety with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD's to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired incomplete on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 14, 2011



Thursday, Sept. 15

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

LSU at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Tigers have won five straight at Starkville and covered the first four of those prior to narrow 30-26 escape in 2009. Les only 2-5 last 7 as road chalk, but Tigers 8-3 vs. line last 11 meetings. Slight to LSU, based on extended series trends.




Friday, Sept. 16
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

BOISE STATE at TOLEDO...Boise a sparkling 20-4 vs. spread its last 24 away from Bronco Stadium (green turf works just fine for Boise). Boise also 11-2 vs. line last 13 outside of conference play. Boise, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at UCONN...Under Edsall, UConn covered 22 of its last 32 as chalk, and was 4-0 as Rentsch chalk LY. Paul Rhoads just 1-4 vs. line away from Ames LY after 5-1 mark in role in ‘09. Slight to UConn, based on team trends.




Saturday, Sept. 17
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

at WEST VIRGINIA at MARYLAND...WVU’s 31-17 win and cover LY was its fourth straight in series, though LY was first meeting since 2007. If Terps getting points, note that while at UConn, Edsall was 18-10 as dog from 2007-10. Edsall’s UConn was also 6-0 vs. points at home LY and 19-6 last 25 as host; he’s now 20-6 last 26 as host included Miami opening win. Terps also 12-4 vs. spread last 16 on board dating to late ‘09. Maryland, based on extended team and Edsall marks.

AUBURN at CLEMSON...Chizik is 4-2 vs. line as dog at Auburn (1-0 LY) and covered 5 of 6 away from Jordan-Hare LY. Dabo just 3-6-1 last 10 at Death Valley. Auburn, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at IOWA...Ferentz has had some hot streaks vs. number throughout his career but is only 10-12-1 last 23 on board with Hawkeyes. Ferentz also just 6-11 his last 17 as chalk. ’Stache was 15-7-2 the past four years on the road with Pitt. Pitt, based on team trends.

AKRON at CINCINNATI...Ianello now 5-9 vs. line at Akron, and Zips just 8-20 vs. spread last 28 on board dating to late ‘08. Ianello 1-4 vs. line outside of MAC. Butch Jones now 3-1 laying DD with Cincy after AP rout. Cincy, based on team trends.

WYOMING at BOWLING GREEN...Clawson dropped last four vs. spread at home LY and 7 of last 9 overall vs. number in 2010, but opened 2011 in fine fashion at Idaho. Falcs historically shallow as home chalk, however, only 7-14 in role at Doyt Perry since '05. Christensen 9-4 vs. line away since arriving at Wyo in 2009. Slight to Wyo, based on extended team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Michigan was cursed under Rodriguez (10-27 vs. line) but looks to be on the rebound with Brady Hoke. EMU one of the handful of teams Rich-Rod covered against, in 2009 (45-17 Wolverines), and Mich. 2-1 vs. line in three vs. Eagles since '05. Ron English and EMU have dropped 6 of last 7 vs. points getting 21 or more. Slight to Michigan, based on EMU negatives.

PENN STATE at TEMPLE...Temple has covered each of the past two years vs. Shades, and Owls 37-21 vs. spread (all but two wins on Al Golden's watch) last 58 spread decisions. Owls 6-1 as home dog since '07. Shades 2-4 vs. line away from home LY. Temple, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...CMU has won last five meetings, 4-0-1 vs. line in those, and covered last three vs. WMU. Chips only 2-7 vs. line last 9 since mid 2010, however. The Waldos were 6-5-1 vs. line LY after 11-22 spread mark for Cubit 2007-09. Slight to CMU, based on extended series trends.

OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have won 3 of the last 4 SU in series and have covered 8 of last 10 vs. Rebs. But Vandy is 0-10 its last 10 against spread hosting SEC foes Slight to Ole Miss, based on recent Vandy home marks.

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani continues to have problems as home chalk, now no covers last 6 in role. Eagles also only 1-8 last nine against line at home. Cutcliffe 8-3-1 vs. line his last 12 on road, and Duke 14-7 as road dog since '07. Duke, based on team trends.

KANSAS at GEORGIA TECH...Revenge for GT after 28-25 shock loss at KU LY. Paul Johnson 4-1 vs. line in revenge role at GT. Jayhawks just 6-10 as dog the past two seasons. Slight to GT, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE vs. COLORADO (at Denver)...Buffs have now won and covered 3 of last 4 in series after Rams has covered previous three. CSU on a 4-16 spread skid since early in the '09 season, 4-8 last 12 as dog. Slight to CU, based on CSU negatives.

WISCONSIN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (at Soldier Field, Chicago)...Dave Doeren vs. former employer Wisconsin. NIU has covered last five vs. Big Ten reps. Bielema only 5-7 as road chalk since '07 and just 3-7 vs. spread last 10 in reg.-season vs. non-conference foes. NIU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at MINNESOTA...Miami 6-1 last 7 vs. line. Minn 0-4 vs. line against MAC since '07, both numbers post-Glen Mason. Note Miami has covered its last four visiting Big Ten sites. Miami-O, based on extended trends.

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA...Vols have lost last 6 SU vs. Gators and are just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 in series. Derek Dooley, however, was 4-1 vs. line as visitor LY. Florida 34-18 vs. line since '07. Slight to Florida, based on series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NOTRE DAME...Spartans a real bogey team lately for ND, won and covered last 4 meetings, 5-0-1 vs. line last 6, and 11-2-1 vs. spread. Irish just 8-20-3 vs. line last 31 on board at home, and Brian Kelly only 1-4-3 vs. number at South Bend. MSU, based on series trends.

VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA...UNC just 3-7 its last 10 as an ACC favorite. Slight to Virginia, based on extended trends.

TEXAS at UCLA...Bruins have won and covered big in last three series meetings since '97 (no result closer than 18). Last year 34-12 UCLA at Austin. Mack Brown's first game as Texas HC was at UCLA in 1998, a 49-31 defeat. Slick Rick just 6-13 his last 19 as dog at UCLA, but Mack just 2-9 vs. points last 11 vs. non-conference foes UCLA, based on extended trends.

WASHINGTON at NEBRASKA...U-Dub avenged blowout reg.-season loss in Seattle with 19-7 win at Holiday Bowl. Bo Pelini 4-9 vs. line last 13 at Lincoln. UW, based on team trends.

TEXAS TECH at NEW MEXICO...Lobos earned first September cover in 9 tries for Locksley in opener vs. CSU, but UNM still only 2-7 vs. spread against non-MWC fos for Locksley. After a slowish start, Tuberville is 3-0 with TT laying 20 or more. TT, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at ARMY...NU 4-1 vs. line last 5 vs. non-conf. foes away from Evanston. NU, based on team trends.

NEVADA at SAN JOSE STATE...San Jose 8-24 vs. number last 32 on board, 3-11 vs. spread last 14 at Spartan Stadium. Pack has won and covered 3 of last 4 at San Jose (I was there for '03 game!) and is 7-2 against spread last 9 in series. Ault 5-2 as DD road chalk since '05. Nevada, based on team and series trends.

TULANE at UAB...Wave now 7-21-1 against number last 29 on board. Blazers 1-5 as chalk last season, however, and just 2-5 vs. number last 7 as host Slight to Tulane, based on UAB woes.

NAVY at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier is 9-4-1 vs. line last 15 at Williams-Brice, although Cocks have often struggled immediately after Georgia game. Niumatalolo 7-2 last 9 as dog, and Mids have long offered value as dog away from Annapolis (26-13 since 2001). Navy, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Cougs actually 9-5 vs. points last 14 on road for Paul Wulff, and covered 6 of last 8 as DD dog in '10. WSU, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at KENTUCKY...UK 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. FBS non-SEC foes at Lexington. Joker 6-2 vs. line at home LY. UK, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at LA TECH...Historically, LT has been a good home dog, 9-2 last 11 in role (2-2 LY for Sonny Dykes). Cougs 3-11 as road chalk since '08 for Sumlin. LT, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at OHIO...Solich 8-4 vs. line last 12 at Peden Stadium, and if favored here note 11-6 mark as home chalk since arriving in 2005. Herd 1-5 vs. line away since LY. Ohio, based on team trends.

IDAHO at TEXAS A&M... Ags 12-3 vs. line at Kyle Field since '09, 5-2 laying 14 or more. A&M on a 7-game reg.-season SU and spread win streak. Idaho stumbled in BG opener but has been 8-3 as road dog the past two seasons. A&M, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at BALL STATE...Bulls enter 2011 on a 7-game MAC SU and spread skid. But Ball State struggled badly in Muncie the past two years (1-11 since '09). Slight to Buffalo, based on Ball State home woes.

ARIZONA STATE at ILLINOIS...ASU 10-1 vs. spread since LY against FBS foes and has covered last four chances as rare non-conference visitor since 2004. ASU, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at KANSAS STATE...Flashes just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 on board and have dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium. Bill Snyder just 2-5 vs. line at home since LY, however, and struggled vs. the EKU Colonels in opener. Snyder 0-3 laying DD since returning to Cats in '09. Slight to Kansas State, based on Kent State negatives.

SYRACUSE at SOUTHERN CAL...First trip for Cuse to Coliseum since Nov. 25, 1967, when Orangemen battered UCLA the week after epic USC-UCLA 21-20 classic. Physical Syracuse was the worst possible Bruin foe in the ultimate example of a letdown for UCLA. Orange brutalized Bruins, KO'd Gary Beban in his final college game and physically manhandled smaller Bruins, with Larry Csonka powering up the middle and Art Thoms and the Cuse "D" throwing around the Bruins like rag dolls. None other than Tom Coughlin caught a TD pass for Syracuse in 32-14 romp, the low moment of the Beban years at UCLA. Cuse was 5-1 vs. line away from home LY, covering last 5 in a row. Syracuse, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at FLORIDA STATE...OU only 3-4 vs. line away from Owen Field LY and 4-9 last 13 away from home. Also 1-4 vs. points last 5 away from Norman vs. non-conference foes. Slight to FSU, based on team trends.

UTEP at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU's DeWayne Walker 2-11 vs. points in Las Cruces. UTEP, based on NMSU negatives.

OHIO STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Buckeyes 16-6-1 vs. line away from Big Horseshoe since '07. Canes only 8-16 vs. spread at home since '07 (the Shannon years). OSU, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU...Dog team 15-4 last 19 in Holy War. Utah 22-8 as dog since 2000. Utah, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TULSA...Mike Gundy now 11-4 vs. line last 15 on board. Cowboys also covered all 6 away from Stillwater LY. Tulsa covered last 4 as dog in 2010 but dropped first chance in role TY. OSU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at UNLV...Hawaii has covered last 4 meetings since '06 including wipeout 59-21 win LY in Honolulu. Warriors also 11-5 vs. spread last 16 on mainland. Rebs were 5-1 vs. line at Sam Boyd LY when home team covered in 11 of the 12 UNLV games. Hawaii, based on series trends.

STANFORD at ARIZONA...Tree has covered 6 of last 8 in series and covered 5 of 7 on road LY. Stanford 7-2 vs. spread last 9 away from Farm and was 5-1 as road chalk LY. Cats 2-9 vs. mark last 11 vs. FBS foes, although mike Stoops 9-2 last 11 as Tucson dog. Stanford, based on recent trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

UL-MONROE at TCU...ULM 1-5 vs. line last six non-conf. games on road. Warhawks 2-4 as DD dog under odd Berry and 3-8 last 11 in role. Gary Patterson 16-6 laying DD at Fort Worth since '05, 10-4 last 14 laying 20 or more. TCU, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at Blacksburg and 11-4 last 15 laying DD. VT, based on Beamer trends

UCF at FIU...FIU has now win and covered 6 of last 7 since late LY and is 5-1 last 6 as dog. O'Leary on 22-6 spread run since '09, however, and has covered 9 of last 11 in Orlando. Slight to UCF, based on extended trends

NORTH TEXAS at ALABAMA...Nick 29-14 last 43 on board and has covered last 4 laying 30 or more, including 53-7 over UNT in '09. Mean Green 18-32 last 50 spread decisions. Bama, based on team trends.

TROY at ARKANSAS...Petrino has covered last 8 and 11 of last 12 reg.-season games. Razorbacks have also covered 6 straight at home and last 4 as DD chalk. Blakeney only 4-9 vs. line since 2010, 3-5 last 8 away, and only 7-8 as DD road dog since '05. Arkansas, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: BCS vs. BCS non-conference games

From 2008 to 2010, there were 143 regular-season games featuring a member of one BCS conference versus a member of a different BCS conference. Since Notre Dame is part of the BCS bowl scenario, all of the Fighting Irish’s games against BCS foes are included in this group.
Overall, home field hasn’t meant anything in these games, as home squads are just 65-66 SU (49.6%). Favorites are 69-61 (53%) ATS (there was one pick ‘em). There have been nine neutral-site BCS conference versus BCS conference games, with underdogs going 5-4 (56%) ATS. In all of the games involving a true home team, there has been a slight lean toward the Over (74-59, 56%). The Under is a solid 6-3 (67%) in the neutral-site games.

In terms of how each conference has fared ATS in these matchups, the current Big 12 membership tops the list, with the SEC bringing up the rear.
Big 12: 17-14 (55%)
Pac-12: 29-27 (52%)
Big Ten: 21-20 (51%)
ACC: 30-29 (51%)
Big East: 22-24 (48%)
SEC: 20-25 (44%)

The best individual records in these games ATS are:
Alabama 4-0
Kansas 3-0
Oklahoma St. 3-0
California 4-1
S. Carolina 4-1
UCLA 4-1
(minimum of 3 games for all team lists)
As for the worst, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M are all 0-3.

In terms of totals, the current Pac-12 and Big 12 memberships are both better than 60% Over the total:
Pac-12 37-21 (64%)
Big 12 19-12 (61%)
ACC 30-25 (55%)
Big East 26-23 (53%)
SEC 23-22 (51%)
Big Ten 21-21 (50%)

The strongest Over plays in these games are:
California 5-0
Kansas 3-0
Washington 5-1
Baylor 4-1
Colorado 4-1
Georgia Tech 4-1
Oklahoma 4-1

The most consistent under plays are:
Boston College 0-4
Arizona St. 0-3
Iowa State 1-3
USC 2-6

If you’re wondering about Notre Dame, the Irish are 8-5 (62%) ATS and 8-7 Over (53%).

Moving on from the conference-by-conference breakdowns, we dug even deeper to find some stronger angles to look for this season when foes from rival BCS conferences clash:

Road teams are 12-4 (75%) ATS when favored by 8 points or more. The Over is 14-4 (82%) in these games.

Home teams are 13-8 (62%) ATS when favored by 14 points or more. The Over is also 13-8 (62%) in these games.

Home teams are 6-2 (75%) ATS when favored by 21 points or more.

The Over is 8-2 (80%) when the total is 41 points or less. Home teams are 7-2 (78%) ATS in these games.

The Under is 6-3 (67%) when the total is 60 points or more.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami favored to beat No. 17 Ohio State Saturday

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (2-0)
at MIAMI HURRICANES (0-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -3, Total: 48

This is a matchup of two schools who have made headlines for all the wrong reasons in the past few months.

Despite the expected returns of QB Jacory Harris, WR Travis Benjamin and LB Sean Spence, the Hurricanes still have significant players suspended and injured. Harris does not usually play well against strong defenses, evidenced by his four interceptions in a 36-24 loss at Ohio State last year. And with the Buckeyes’ excellent run-stop unit, the ‘Canes fate in this game rests mostly on the erratic arm of Harris. OSU is 16-6 ATS (73%) on the road since 2007. The pick here is OHIO STATE.

The FoxSheets show another reason to choose the Buckeyes.

OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 38.2, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 1*).

No. 17 Ohio State escaped The Horseshoe with an unimpressive 27-22 win over Toledo Saturday. The Buckeyes only gained 301 total yards on offense, and allowed 292 yards passing. However, OSU’s run defense has allowed 81 yards on 57 carries this year (1.4 YPC).

The Hurricanes haven’t played since their Labor Day loss to Maryland, when the defense allowed a hefty 499 yards to the Terps and turned the ball over four times on offense.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 5 FSU looks to knock off No. 1 Oklahoma

OKLAHOMA SOONERS (1-0)
at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (2-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -3, Total: 55

The best game in college football this weekend is in Tallahassee with No. 1 Oklahoma visiting No. 5 Florida State.

One game does not make a season, but the Sooners were tremendous in their opener, allowing just 14 points to a Tulsa team that returned its starting QB from the fifth-best offense in FBS last year (506 YPG). Oklahoma’s offense racked up 663 yards as junior Dominique Whaley rumbled for 131 yards and 4 TD. The Sooners pummeled FSU last year 47-17 as they racked up 487 total yards. The Seminoles aren’t a good enough running team (4.0 YPC vs. Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern) to keep this game close. Take OKLAHOMA giving points on the road.

The FoxSheets provide another trend which backs the Sooners.

Bob Stoops is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA. The average score was OKLAHOMA 29.7, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 1*).

In last year’s rout of Florida State, Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns, but only one to his star receiver Ryan Broyles. Oklahoma had a bye after crushing Tulsa 47-14 on Sept. 3 behind 375 passing yards from Jones. Dating back to last season, OU’s star quarterback has averaged 376 yards per game with 17 TD in his past six contests. He’ll also have another weapon in his arsenal as Kenny Stills returns from a suspension. The defense will also get a tremendous boost with its best DT Stacy McGee back on the field after serving his one-game suspension.

Seminoles QB E.J. Manuel has been tremendous as the replacement for the departed Christian Ponder. Manuel is 46-of-69 for 581 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT as his team beat Louisiana-Monroe 34-0 and Charleston Southern 62-10. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has been making adjustments to his offensive line to help spur the rushing attack, which is led by James Wilder Jr. who has a total of 76 rushing yards in two games. FSU has won 10 of its past 11 home games but is just 5-10 ATS in the past 15 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 4 Boise State travels to Toledo Friday

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (1-0)
at TOLEDO ROCKETS (1-1)

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -19.5, Total: 58.5

Well-rested Boise State looks to show off its high-flying offense Friday night against a Toledo squad that nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus.

The Rockets outgained OSU, but committed 14 penalties and were 3-of-16 on third downs in the 27-22 loss. They can’t afford to be sloppy again Friday, because the Broncos make teams pay for mistakes. QB Kellen Moore was 16-of-22 for 267 yards and 3 first-half TD in last year’s 57-14 rout of Toledo, which committed five turnovers on the blue turf. The Broncos are 18-3 ATS in non-home games since 2008, and will put on a show for the national TV audience. The pick here is BOISE STATE.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star reason to side with the Broncos.

Play On - Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BOISE ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt. (27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Moore lit up Georgia for 261 yards and 3 TD in BSU’s opening win on Sept. 3. In typical Moore fashion, he spread the wealth to a bevy of receivers as seven players caught multiple passes and nobody had more than six of the team’s 28 receptions. The rushing attack was disappointing as Doug Martin only gained 57 yards on 24 attempts (2.4 YPC). Last year, Martin averaged 97 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.3 YPC. The ground game could be missing fullback Dan Paul who is questionable with a groin injury. The Broncos could get a boost with the possible returns of WR Geraldo Boldewijn and S Cedric Febis who were suspended by the NCAA for undisclosed reasons.

The Rockets have never hosted team ranked as high as No. 4 Boise State. For Toledo to keep this contest competitive, WR Eric Page will continue to be the main target in the passing game. Page caught 12 passes for 145 yards and 2 TD against what many consider to be a great Ohio State defense, so he should have no trouble getting open against the Broncos secondary. The ground game should have an easier time chewing up yards against BSU than it did against Ohio State. Toledo gained just 46 yards on 30 carries against the Buckeyes.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 6 Stanford visits Arizona Saturday night

STANFORD CARDINAL (2-0)
at ARIZONA WILDCATS (1-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:45 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -9.5, Total: 54

Andrew Luck brings his explosive air attack into the desert, when No. 6 Stanford takes on an Arizona team eager to erase last Thursday’s 37-14 drubbing at Oklahoma State.

Luck threw for 290 yards and a career-high tying 4 TD in Saturday’s 44-14 win at Duke. Wildcats QB Nick Foles gained 398 yards through the air against OSU, but Arizona amassed just 41 yards on 21 carries. Stanford has won six of the past eight meetings (SU and ATS) against the Wildcats, and is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to the Tucson desert. Expect more of the same on Saturday as STANFORD is the pick to win by double-digits.

The FoxSheets provide a rare four-star trend urging bettors to fade the Wildcats:

Play Against - A home team (ARIZONA) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (28-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Stanford just pummeled Arizona last season, going up 28-3 midway through the third quarter and cruising to a 42-17 victory. QB Andrew Luck is 44-of-67 for 722 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT in two career games against the Wildcats. But don’t forget about the Cardinal rushing attack, because they can also gain yards on the ground. In two games this year, Stanford has rumbled for 346 yards on 70 attempts (4.9 YPC).

The Wildcats have been the complete opposite, as they have been stagnant in their attempt to gain yardage on the ground. Arizona has a mere 116 rushing yards on 41 carries this year, which is 2.8 yards per carry. QB Nick Foles (801 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT) will likely continue to air out the football, especially if star WR Juron Criner returns from a Sept. 5 appendectomy. Criner caught nine passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in last season’s loss to Stanford.

[StarDust Bum]

Boise St. at Toledo

September 15, 2011

Editor's note: Brian Edwards is out to a flying start in college football, cashing tickets at a 10-4 clip (71%, +565, #3 on VI!) in Weeks 1 and 2. Brian is back in action tonight with this pay-if-it-wins-only selection and he also has these plays ready for Saturday.

After dealing out woodshed treatment to Georgia in Atlanta, Boise State (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) had an open date in Week 2. The Broncos will get back to work Friday night when they go on the road again to take on Toledo at the Glass Bowl.

Most betting shops opened Chris Petersen’s team as a 17-point favorite Sunday night. However, the number was up to 18 or 18 ½ by Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, most spots adjusted BSU to a 20-point ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 59-60 range Thursday morning, while Toledo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) was listed at plus-700 to win outright (risk $100 to win $700).

Kellen Moore was the catalyst for Boise St. in its 35-21 season-opening win over UGA, completing 28-of-34 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Without former star WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, Moore spread the wealth around by connecting with five different targets three times or more.

UGA drew first blood on an 80-yard touchdown run, but BSU responded by scoring 28 unanswered points. While Moore shredded the Dawgs’ secondary, Boise St.’s defense looked like an SEC-type unit by locking down Aaron Murray and Co. (BSU’s ‘D’ looks even better after Georgia put up 42 points against South Carolina this past weekend.)

Georgia would cut the deficit to 14 twice at 28-14 and 35-21, but it never really got back into the game. When the final gun sounded, Boise St. had gone into enemy territory across the country to pick up a huge win for a second straight season opener.

Tim Beckman’s team won its lid-lifter by trouncing New Hampshire 58-22 as a 10 ½-point home favorite. Junior quarterback Austin Dantin, a product of Tallahassee Leon High School’s storied high-school program, completed 15-of-21 throws for 161 yards and three TDs without a pick. Senior RB Adonis Thomas added 115 yards and one TD rushing on just nine carries.

In Week 2, Toledo gave Ohio St. fits for 60 minutes at The Horseshoe. The Rockets may have pulled the outright upset if not for giving up a 69-yard punt return for a TD with only 46 seconds left in the first half. The Buckeyes eventually captured a 27-22 win, but they never threatened to cover the number as 17 ½-point home favorites.

Dantin, who split time under center with sophomore Terrance Owens, played well once again. He connected on 14-of-26 passes for 155 yards and one TD without an interception. Thomas was limited to 47 rushing yards on 14 carries, but he found paydirt on a four-yard TD run that gave his team a 22-21 advantage early in the third quarter.

Toledo out-yarded OSU 338-304 but couldn’t muster any offense in the final stanza.

This will be the Rockets’ fourth game as home underdogs during Beckman’s three-year tenure. They are 2-1 ATS in the three previous situations, beating Colorado and No. Illinois outright in 2009. Dating back to 2001, Toledo is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Boise St. owns a 17-10 spread record as a road favorite under Petersen, going 16-6 versus the number in such spots since 2007. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit road favorites.

Kick-off is slated for Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Also on Friday, UConn will play host to Iowa St. on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Huskies are looking to bounce back from a 24-21 loss at Vandy, while the Cyclones might be in a letdown situation after beating arch-rival Iowa 44-41 in overtime.

--Florida owns an 18-9 spread record as a home favorite since 2007. The Gators, as of Wednesday night, were listed as 9 ½-point favorites for their SEC opener Saturday vs. Tennessee.

--UT quarterback Tyler Bray, fresh off a career-high 405 passing yards in a 45-23 win over Cincinnati, will try to become the first Vol QB not named Casey Clausen to win at The Swamp since the early 1970s. Bray had four TD passes and one TD rushing against the Bearcats.

--After not being able to go at Wednesday’s practice, Boston College star RB Montel Harris was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game vs. Duke. Harris, who rushed for 1,243 yards and eight TDs in 2010, has missed the Eagles’ first two games. They are 0-2 after losing to Northwestern at home before getting thumped last week at UCF.

--Ole Miss RB Brandon Bolden has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game against unbeaten Vanderbilt in Nashville. Bolden sat out last week’s win over Southern Illinois after suffering a leg injury in a 14-13 home loss to BYU in the season opener. Bolden had 14 TDs rushing and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average last year. The Rebels are 1 ½-point road favorites against the Commodores.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Report - Week 3

September 15, 2011

Ohio State (+3) at Miami - 7:30 PM EST, ESPN

OSU: 2-0 SU. 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Toledo, W 27-22
MIA: 0-1 SU. 0-1 ATS - Last week: OFF

Don't buy too much into Ohio State's near debacle against Toledo last week. Toledo is a solid team and their coach Tim Beckman had a stellar gameplan against his former team. Plus, Ohio State probably had its sights set on Miami this week and overlooked the Rockets a bit. The Buckeyes now make their first road trip of the season to Miami where they are underdogs for the first time since late 2009.

OSU has allowed just 81 rushing yards on 57 carries through two games (1.4 YPC). As a team, Miami rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns in its Labor Day loss at Maryland. The 'Canes rushed for 120 yards against OSU last season and had a punt and kickoff return for touchdown. They were ultimately doomed by QB Jacory Harris' four interceptions and lost by 12. Harris returns from his one-game suspension this week (as well has three other Miami starters) and he'll be extremely motivated to have a redemption performance this season.

Things to consider: The Canes are just 16-33 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2001 but they've pulled off a couple of big wins (vs. #20 Texas A&M in 2007 and vs. #8 Oklahoma in 2009).

Injury/suspension notes: OSU RB Hall, and DB's Howard and Brown were reinstated this week but Herron, Posey, Adams are still out. Three starters remain suspended for Miami (SS Armstrong, DT Vernon, and WR Johnson) and OT Henderson is out with a back injury.

Arizona State at Illinois (-1) 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

ASU: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Missouri, W 37-30
ILL: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs FCS South Dakota State, W 56-3

This marks the first real test of the season for Illinois after two big wins against Arkansas State and FCS South Dakota State (combined score of 89-18). Sophomore QB Scheelhaase has completed 71% of his passes, rushed for 172 yards, and accumulated four total touchdowns through two games. Arizona State really struggled against a mobile QB last week and could have some problems if Scheelhaase gets on a roll.

The Sun Devils are off of an extremely emotional game. ASU was at home in front of a "black-out" crowd against a ranked team. The Devils survived a comeback attempt and ultimately won in overtime. This is a let-down situation as the Devils are playing in their first road game of the season at an underrated Big Ten squad.

Something to consider: Illinois is just 3-9 vs. non conference BCS opponents under head coach Ron Zook. Arizona State has dropped three straight road openers but the last two have come by a total of just four points against two quality opponents (Georgia and Wisconsin).

Washington at Nebraska (-17) - 3:30 PM EST, ABC

UW: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Hawaii, W 40-32
NU: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Fresno State, W 42-29

The Cornhuskers normally stout defensive unit allowed 444 yards, 24 first downs, and 29 points to Fresno State at home last week. Nebraska should expect much more from its defense going forward and coach Bo Pelini will make adjustments. Offensively, the Huskers had its ups and downs. QB Martinez rushed for 166 yards and two scores, but completed just 48% and threw two picks.

Washington was outgained by 254 by FCS Eastern Washington in week one and only won by three points despite +4 turnover ratio. They then staved off a Hawaii comeback in week two and won by eight points. Washington was dominated by the Huskers, 21-56, early last season and then beat Nebraska, 19-7, in the Holiday Bowl for a shocking turnaround. Nebraska had 385 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the first matchup, then gained just 94 yards with no touchdowns in the Bowl game.

Something to consider: The Huskies rank 7th in the nation defending the run (43 yards per game) and dead last in the nation defending the pass (403 yards per game). Nebraska has lost two straight home games against non-conference BCS foes (Virginia Tech in 2008 & USC in 2007).

Injury report: Nebraska star CB Dennard remains questionable and is unlikely to play for the third straight week.

Michigan State (+5.5) at Notre Dame - 3:30 PM EST, NBC

MSU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Florida Atlantic, W 44-0
ND: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 31-35

MSU's defense was supposed to struggle after losing four of its top five defenders from a year ago. Instead the Spartans have allowed just six points through two games, albeit to FCS Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. Last week FAU had just one first down and just 48 total yards. The Spartans will have their first real test against a fully motivated Notre Dame squad this week.

Notre Dame is on the brink of starting the season 0-3. The Irish have out-gained both opponents so far, racking up over 500 yards in two losses; but have committed five turnovers in each game. They also have the extra motivation to revenge last year's loss in this rivalry game, when MSU used a fake punt in overtime to beat the Irish.

Something to consider: Michigan State has covered seven straight times at Notre Dame while the Irish are just 1-6 ATS the last seven games vs. the Big Ten.

Injury report: MSU could be without two starters for the second straight week as WR Bennie Fowler (foot) and DE Tyler Hoover (back) remain questionable heading into the weekend.

Penn State (7.5) at Temple 12:00 PM EST, ESPN

PSU: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Alabama, L 11-27
TU: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS - Last week: at Akron, W 41-3

The Nittany Lions were dominated by Alabama for the 2nd year in a row to the tune of 27-11. It's worth noting that Bama has arguably the best defense of any team in the past decade, and PSU gained 251 yards in the loss. The outcome may have been different if the Lions could have avoided their three turnovers. They'll look to bounce back against a Temple squad that they've beaten 28 straight times - including five straight by an average score of 35-4 (two shutouts).

Temple is 2-0 and has outscored its first two opponents 83-10 (FCS Villanova and Akron). RB Bernard Pierce has 297 rushing yards and six touchdowns already and he'll need a big performance if Temple is going to pull off the upset. Defensively the Owls lost its top four players from a year ago but seem to have found a few capable replacements. PSU still hasn't settled on a starting quarterback and lacks an offensive identity and that could keep Temple in this game.

Something to consider: Since 1977 (25 games), Temple has topped 14 points just four times (!) against Penn State with an average score of 37-9.

Suspension report: Stephfon Green (No. 2 running back) has been re-instated to the team after being suspended for disciplinary reasons, yet remains questionable for Saturday.

Wisconsin (16.5) at Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM EST, ESPN3.com

UW: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Oregon State, W 35-0
NIU: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: at Kansas, L 42-45

This will be Wisconsin's first "road" game of the season (game is being played at Soldier field yet is deemed "home" for Northern Illinois. The Badgers won the previous two meetings (07 & 09) by a combined score of 72-23. QB Wilson has been brilliant in his first two games as a Badger, completing 79% for 444 yards and five touchdowns. RB Ball leads the ground game with 181 rushing yards and six touchdowns so far.

NIU's first year head coach is Dave Doeren, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator the past three seasons. He has a great grasp on the Badger's roster make-up and offensive and defensive philosophy (UW had to change defensive signals this week so he wouldn't recognize). He inherited a ton of returning talent on offense led by senior quarterback Chandler Harnish. Harnish is completing 75% through two games and has 11 total touchdowns (7 passing, 4 rushing).

Something to consider: Wisconsin is just 4-11-1 ATS its last 16 games as a double-digit road chalk.

Injury report: Wisconsin lost starting CB Devin Smith to an ankle injury against Oregon State and he's out for the season. That could be a big absence against Harnish and this NIU offense.

Pittsburgh at Iowa (-3) - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2

PITT: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Maine, W 35-29
UI: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Iowa State, L 41-44

This Iowa defense lost four players to the NFL from last year and really struggled in the loss to Iowa State last week. Iowa was outgained by 100+ yards and had eight fewer first downs. ISU QB Jantz was 18-of-40 with 3 INT's against FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but he torched this Hawkeyes defense to the tune of 25-of-37 with 4 touchdowns last week. The Hawks 'D' needs to rebound this week against a Pitt team that runs a high-tempo spread offense.

Pitt is 2-0 under first-year coach Todd Graham with two unimpressive wins over Buffalo and FCS Maine. RB Ray Graham leads the nation with 332 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) with six touchdowns. He could have a big day against this Hawkeye run defense that surrendered 194 rushing yards to ISU. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 since 2007 in non-conference road games against BCS schools.

Something to consider: Iowa is just 6-5 straight up the last 11 years following its rivalry game with Iowa State. That includes a loss at Pittsburgh in 2008.

Northwestern (-9) at Army - 3:30 PM EST, CBS Sports

NU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Eastern Illinois, W 42-21
Army: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, L 20-23

After a big road win against Boston College in week one, Northwestern returned home and easily dispatched of FCS Eastern Illinois, 42-21. QB Colter had another strong performance (3 rushing touchdowns) as a starter in place of injured Dan Persa. This defense did allow 132 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) and that's concerning heading into a game against a team that averages 353 rushing yards per game.

Army outgained San Diego State by 154 yards and held the ball for +25 minutes yet still lost by three points. They ran the ball 77 times for 403 yards and fumbled eight times (lost three). Look for another run-dominated gameplan against the Wildcats.

Something to consider: Army is 1-11 straight up and 3-9 ATS as a touchdown or more underdog at home since 2005.

Injury report: NU QB Persa remains questionable heading into this weekend. Northwestern hasn't needed him yet and may not need him against Army.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan (-30) - 12:00 EST, Big Ten Network

EMU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Alabama State, W 14-7
UM: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS - Last week: vs. Notre Dame, W 35-31

Eastern Michigan has a pair of unimpressive wins over FCS schools Howard and Alabama State. So take the Eagles strong defensive rankings (8th in total yards, 8th in scoring) with a grain of salt. EMU is averaging 331 rushing yards per game and that's good for fifth in the nation.

Michigan will try to avoid a hangover after a huge Saturday night win in which they scored the final touchdown with just seconds left against rival Notre Dame (the first night game ever in Ann Arbor). The Wolverines are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games favored by 20 points or more (0-4 ATS when favored by 28 points or more).

Something to consider: Eastern Michigan has lost 12 straight road openers by an average of 28 points per game. Michigan is 9-0 against EMU and has won the last four by an average of 48-15.

Miami (OH) at Minnesota (4.5) - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

Miami: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS - Last week: OFF
UM: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. New Mexico State, L 21-28

The status of Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is uncertain this week after he suffered a seizure on the sidelines against New Mexico State. OC Limegrover and DC Claeys have been running practices this week in anticipation that Kill will not be there this weekend. Minnesota can ill afford to lose continuity this early in the season as the Gophers are 0-2 in Kill's first season as head coach. Minnesota was a heavy favorite against New Mexico State yet was bested in almost every aspect of the game last week.

Miami is 0-1 after a week one loss at Missouri under new head coach Don Treadwell. Defensively the RedHawks held Mizzou to just 291 yards and 15 first downs in the narrow loss. This team has a lot of talent and could be primed for an upset against a Minnesota team that's not mentally prepared.

Something to consider: Miami already has a strong track record against the Big Ten (4-1 ATS the past five seasons). And now Treadwell takes over after serving as the OC at Michigan State the past three seasons so he knows the Big Ten well.

FCS SE Missouri State at Purdue - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

FCS SE Missouri State: 0-1 SU
PU: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Rice, L 22-24

Purdue lost its first game of the season in heartbreaking fashion against a strong Rice team last week. Rice blocked a short field goal attempt on the final play to seal the deal. Purdue gets (what should be) a clean-up game here against FCS SE Missouri State.

QB Robert Marve has been cleared to play this week since recovering from a knee injury. Caleb TerBush has filled in nicely and remains #1 on the depth chart but Marve will see some snaps.

FCS South Carolina State at Indiana - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

FCS SC St: 1-1 SU
IU: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Virginia, L 31-34

Indiana has suffered two tough losses to start the Kevin Wilson era, but should finally get win number one this weekend against FCS South Carolina State. IU was down by 20 points early in the 2nd half against Virginia last week. They made a huge comeback, scoring 28 unanswered points and actually took an eight point lead into the final minutes. The Hoosiers then squandered that eight-point lead and managed to lose to the Cavaliers by three points.

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LSU at Mississippi State

September 15, 2011

No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State (+3)
Thursday, Sept. 15
8:00 pm ET
ESPN
Over-Under 50

Well, my nice start to the Thursday night season certainly went south in a hurry. Honestly, I know some 8th grade teams down here in South Florida who I’m sure could defend as well as Arizona did last week against Oklahoma State. Granted, you have to give the Cowboys and their offense a good bit of credit but the Wildcats – particularly in the 1st half – offered little to no resistance. And here I thought Mike Stoops was a solid defensive coach. Oh well, let’s limp into Week 3…

Speaking of a lack of defense, I’m guessing we’ll see some this Thursday night when the Bayou Bengals of Louisiana State University – better known as the LSU Tigers – pay a visit to Starkville, Mississippi to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs. LSU opened the season by facing off against Oregon – a team which had averaged 47 points a game in 2010. All the Tigers did was stifle the Ducks, holding them to 13 points through the first three quarters en route to an impressive 40-27 win.

However, despite the impressive start for the LSU defense, all the talk around the Tigers continues to center on its offense. QB Jordan Jefferson is still suspended indefinitely for his role in a fight this past August and WR Russell Shepard will miss this game while serving the end of a suspension for an NCAA rules infraction.

All that drama hasn’t seemed to slow down Coach Les Miles and crew, in fact they appear to thrive in it. Of course, it helps to have a very capable backup QB when you have to suspend your starter indefinitely. And LSU has just that with senior Jarrett Lee. If that name sounds familiar it’s because Lee has been getting meaningful snaps – for a multitude of reasons – since he was a redshirt freshman in 2008. While Jefferson is unquestionably the better athlete and adds another dimension with his running ability, Lee is the better passer.

Combining Lee’s arm with RB's Michael Ford and Spencer Ware and the LSU offense, which returns 8 starters on offense looks awfully strong.

There was a time when Mississippi State was known for their defense. But if last Saturday is any indication – and it most certainly should be – then those days are long gone. Just a week after Auburn needed a five star magic act to escape their home opener against Utah State, the Bulldogs traveled to the Plains as almost a touchdown favorite. The thinking was pretty simple: Clearly Auburn is a shell of its former self and Coach Dan Mullen is ready to take Mississippi State to the next level.

And while Auburn may indeed be significantly worse than last year, they certainly didn’t miss a beat against Mississippi State as Mike Dyer rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns and Barrett Trotter – attempting to fill Cam Newton’s huge shoes – threw for 146 yards and two more touchdowns as Auburn held off a late rally for the win.

The loss has many reevaluating Mississippi State and the performance of their defense can’t be a positive sign for Dan Mullen as he contemplates how to slow down LSU. The good news is with a pair of seniors - quarterback Chris Relf and running back Vick Ballard – the Bulldogs do have a pair of dangerous offensive weapons. Behind that duo, which includes nine returning starters on offense, Mississippi State has averaged 321 rushing yards per game this season, good for sixth in the nation.

However, it goes without saying that Mississippi State hasn’t lined up against a defense with the skills of LSU. And it can’t help that LSU recently prepared, and was obviously very prepared, for Oregon, a team with a spread offense featuring a mobile QB (Darron Thomas) and talented RB (LaMichael James) just like the Bulldogs will present.

A Thursday night deep in SEC country – the conference opener for both teams and home opener for Miss. St. – should present a rowdy scene in Starkville. Mullin will need everyone of those cowbells ringing in order to spur his team to a win.

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LSU seeks 12th straight win over Miss. State

LSU TIGERS (2-0, 0-0 in SEC)
at MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS (1-1, 0-1 in SEC)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -3, Total: 48.5

Nationally-ranked SEC West rivals square off Thursday night in Starkville when No. 3 LSU travels to No. 25 Mississippi State. The Tigers have owned this series since 1992, going 18-1 SU (15-4 ATS), including 11 straight SU victories over the Bulldogs.

MSU is hungry to get back into the win column after a 41-34 loss to Auburn as QB Chris Relf was tackled just inches short of the goal line on the game’s last play. LSU has one of the best defenses among FBS schools, but MSU is fifth in the nation in offense (588 YPG) thanks to Vick Ballard’s 301 rushing yards and 4 TD in two games. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers in each of the past two meetings, but have been done in by nine turnovers in those pair of defeats. With LSU starting QB Jordan Jefferson still suspended and backup QB Jarrett Lee currently nursing an ankle injury, now is the time for MISSISSIPPI STATE to notch its first series win this century.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to back the Bulldogs.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.8 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 28.4, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Les Miles is 15-30 ATS (33.3%, -18.0 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 27.3, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 1*).

In addition to Jefferson, the Tigers have two more suspended players, WR Russell Shepard (480 yards from scrimmage last year) and LB Josh Johns. Lee played much better in last week’s 49-3 win over Northwestern State, completing 9-of-10 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. This was quite an improvement from his opening game against Oregon when he connected on just 10-of-22 attempts for 98 yards and a score. The Tigers have not done a great job rushing the football in trying to replace departed RB Stevan Ridley. LSU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry on the season, gaining 350 yards on 93 carries. However, the Tigers run defense has been quite a force, holding their opponents to just 91 yards on 55 carries this year (1.7 YPC), which includes limiting the nation’s reigning rushing king LaMichael James to 54 yards on 18 carries.

Last year in Baton Rouge, the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers, but threw 5 INT in a 29-7 loss. Relf threw two picks in only eight attempts before leaving the game with an injury. But Relf sure looks healthy this season, with 397 passing yards and 157 rushing yards in the first two games. The offensive line has done a nice job of protecting him, allowing only two sacks. But the line might have to function without senior LT James Carmon (leg) and C Quentin Saulsberry (sprained knee) who are both questionable after getting hurt in last week’s loss at Auburn. The O-line has allowed Ballard to gain 9.7 YPC. This average is second-best in the nation among all RBs with over 160 yards this year (Cincinnati’s Isaiah Pead has 11.5 YPC).

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/10/11 42-*42-*0 50.00% -*2100 Detail
09/09/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/05/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8200 Detail
09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail
Totals 92-*75-*4 55.09% +4750

Thursday, September 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana State - 8:00 PM ET Mississippi State +3 500

Mississippi State - Under 49 500

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Stanford Faces Arizona In Pac-12 Action

The Arizona Wildcats are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

The Stanford Cardinal (2-0) and Arizona Wildcats (1-1) are set to kick off their inaugural Pac-12 Conference schedules Saturday night in Tucson, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:45 (ET) from Arizona Stadium and will be nationally-televised on ESPN.

Stanford is favored in the betting odds for a third straight week, currently sitting as 10-point road favorites and the total has been driven up from 53 to 54 1/2.

The West coast school from Palo Alto, CA, has a chance to move up from the No. 3 spot in Don Best Linemakers Poll if the Oklahoma Sooners find potential trouble in Tallahassee.

The Cardinal were 4-point road underdogs the last time they played on the road in this series in 2009, dropping a 43-38 thriller.

Quarterback Andrew Luck has led the program to a 9-1 September record over the last two-plus seasons, registering wins over the San Jose State Spartans (57-3) and Duke Blue Devils (44-14) in the opening two weeks of the 2011 campaign.

Luck completed 20-of-28 passes for 290 yards and tied a career-high with four touchdowns passes versus the Blue Devils on the road in Week 2. He has also helped the offense convert 90.2 percent of its chances (74-of-82) in the red zone over the last two seasons.

Stanford has won three of the last four games overall in this series, while proving victorious in four of its last five chances in the desert.

The Cardinal torched a Wildcats defense that came into last season’s meeting ranked seventh nationally in scoring defense, rolling up 510 yards of total offense on its way to an eventual 42-17 win as 7 1/2-point home favorites.

Total bettors will find that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings, snapping a string of five consecutive games in the series going 'under' the total.

Arizona has a laundry list of injuries that includes star wide receiver Juron Criner being listed as doubtful due to undergoing an appendectomy on Sept. 5. The Wildcats have also lost two starters in a secondary that has been horrendous through two games.

Opposing teams have completed 78.5 percent of their passes against the Wildcats this year, which is a bad omen when facing a signal-caller this week that’s projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

The program has posted a 9-22 record against ranked opponents under the direction of head coach Mike Stoops, but the interesting part is how they have picked up such a victory in each of his seven seasons on campus.

The Wildcats must get a ground game going to help quarterback Nick Foles in this contest, as the school is averaging just 58 rushing yards a contest, which is 115th out of 120 teams nationally.

Foles has been dynamite in the pocket, completing 71-of-93 passes for 810 yards and six touchdowns. The potential loss of Criner isn’t as big as many would believe, as the program possesses one of the deeper receiving cores in the country.

Bettors will be watching this line closely leading up to kickoff, as the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Weather forecasts are suggesting clear skies in the Arizona desert and game-time temperatures in the upper-70s.

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Wisconsin Badgers Meet Northern Illinois In Chicago

The Wisconsin Badgers play their only non-conference game away from Madison when they meet the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. (ET).

The Don Best college football odds have Wisconsin between 16 ½-17point favorites, with a lofty total of 64 points.

ESPN3 will have the online broadcast from Soldier Field in Chicago. Reportedly only around 40,000 seats will be sold and less than half should be Northern Illinois fans despite it technically being a homegame.

The Big Ten Badgers (2-0 straight up, 1-0-1 against the spread) have been dominant in home wins over UNLV (51-17) and Oregon State (35-0). The former was a ‘push’ of the 34-point spread, but only because the offensive starters were pulled during the third quarter.

Wisconsin is up to seventh in the AP Poll and a slightly higher sixth at the Don Best Linemakers Poll. The difference is that LSU is ranked third in the former, while Don Best isn’t as high on the SEC school, ranking it tied at seventh with Oregon.

Even though it’s early, coach Bret Bielema must feel like the cat that swallowed the canary with his recruitment of senior quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been nothing short of brilliant with a 79.4 percent completion percentage and 237.6 quarterback rating (both top-4 nationally).

Critics point out that it’s easy to post great numbers with a dominant offensive line and a defense that needs eight in the box to stop running backs Montee Ball and James White. However, Wilson has firmly grasped the offense in his short time with the club and he’s already one of the leaders.

The defense had some questions marks after allowing 146 rushing yards to UNLV. That was answered with 23 yards allowed on 24 carries against Oregon State. That’s impressive even with OSU star freshman running back Malcolm Agnew sidelined with injury.

The Badgers did allow 244 passing yards to Sean Mannion last week, but most were meaningless and he averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt. They did get some bad news with corner Devin Smith (foot) lost for the year, but Marcus Cromartie is a solid replacement.

Wisconsin has won 30 straight regular season non-conference games (15-11-1 in their last 27 ATS) dating back to 2003. The team is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games overall, going 4-0 ATS in road and neutral site contests.

Northern Illinois (1-1 SU and ATS) is playing its second-ever game at Soldier Field. It played Big Ten Iowa there in 2007, losing 16-3 as 12-point ‘dogs. This is just a 65-mile jaunt from its DeKalb campus, while it’s 150 miles for Wisconsin.

The Huskies went 11-3 SU (10-3-1 ATS) last year, including a perfect 8-0 regular season mark in the MAC. That helped Jerry Kill get the job at Minnesota and he was replaced by former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Doeren.

Doeren spent five years with the Badgers and they’re so worried about his familiarity that they’re changing all the signals and communication he might know.

Northern Illinois is an offensive minded team despite its coach’s background. Nine starters returned from a group that was seventh nationally in rushing (260.4 YPG) and 12th in points (38 PPG). The offense can line up under center, in the shotgun or in pistol formations.

Senior Chandler Harnish is a dual-threat quarterback who’s thrown for 510 yards this year and rushed for 169 more, accounting for 11 touchdowns between his arm and legs. He threw for 2,530 yards last year and ran for 836.

Northern Illinois beat Army in the opener, 49-26 as 10-point home favorites, but fell at Kansas last week 45-42 as 4-point favorites, surrendering the winning touchdown pass with just nine seconds left.

The ‘over’ has easily gone 2-0 for Northern Illinois this season and is 6-1 in its last seven overall.

Doeren really needs to have some defensive tricks up his sleeve. He’s certainly familiar with Wisconsin’s personnel and formations, but his guys are giving up 278 YPG on the ground (ranked 117th nationally) and 471.5 total yards (ranked 110th). Only two starters returned from last year.

The Huskies gave Wisconsin a game when they last met in 2009, a 28-20 loss as 16 ½-point road ‘dogs. They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Big Ten.

Weather will not be a problem, mostly sunny and in the 60s. However, the extremely hard grass field does have both coaches concerned.