The Bum's CFB Week # 2 Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin Badgers, Oregon State Betting Preview

Wisconsin and Oregon State meet for the first time in 50 years.
The Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers had polar opposite results from Week 1. The teams meet Saturday in ‘Madtown’ in a battle of major conferences.

The football odds list Wisconsin as 21 ½-point favorites with a total of 57 points. ESPN will have the broadcast from Camp Randall Stadium at noon (ET).

The Big Ten Badgers came out snarling in their 51-17 win over UNLV last Thursday night. They scored seven touchdowns and a field goal in their first eight possessions to build a 51-3 lead, looking like a scrimmage between the varsity and junior varsity.

Coach Bret Bielema pulled the offensive starters in the third quarter and UNLV scored the final two touchdowns for the very fortunate ‘push’ as 34-point ‘dogs. The 68 combined points scored easily went ‘over’ the 56-point total. The win moved Wisconsin up from 11th to eighth in the AP, but stayed put at sixth in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. Fans are dreaming about a much higher finish, especially after the performance of transfer quarterback Russell Wilson.

The senior was all that was advertised and more, going 10-of-13 for 255 passing yards. That’s a whopping 19.6 yards per attempt He also showed his running ability (two carries, 62 yards) in addition to his rocket arm.

Wilson never had an offensive line at NC State like he does now. The unit blew UNLV off the ball giving Montee Ball and James White holes that a tractor could drive through. Wilson will still mostly be asked to just manage the offense, but he has the ability to lead a comeback if necessary, even against upper echelon teams.

The one dose of reality is the defense. There were some problems in addition to UNLV’s two touchdown drives. The Rebels rushed for 146 yards and had 292 total yards, with the pistol formation causing confusion. Bielema’s defense lost some key starters like J.J. Watt, and has a way to go to match last year’s 321.8 YPG allowed (20th nationally).

The Badgers have a 10-game home winning streak (6-4 ATS). They’ve averaged an enormous 57.7 PPG in their last six at home, with the ‘over’ going 5-0-1.

Wisconsin has won 29-straight regular season non-conference games (14-11-1 ATS) dating back to 2003.

Pac-12 Oregon State suffered an embarrassing 29-28 loss to FCS Sacramento State as huge 27 ½-point home favorites. The win was capped by a bold 2-point conversion in overtime.

Junior quarterback Ryan Katz started, but was pulled after going 11-of-22 passing for 87 yards and being on the wrong end of a 14-3 halftime score. Redshirt freshman Sean Mannion did much better (8-of-12, 143 passing yards) and true freshman Malcolm Agnew had a big day with 223 rushing yards and three TDs.

The 57 combined points scored was a ‘push’ of the college football betting total even with overtime. The ‘under’ was 5-0 in Oregon State’s final five games last year, scoring just 16.8 PPG after 29.9 PPG in the first seven.

Oregon State will play both quarterbacks this week according to coach Mike Riley. Agnew tweaked his hamstring, but is not listed on the Don Best injury report. His emergence is key with Jacquizz Rodgers (1,184 rushing yards) leaving early for the NFL last year.

Receiver James Rodgers (Jacquizz’s brother) missed the opener with a knee injury and is expected out this week as well. Junior Markus Wheaton will again be the go-to guy with 108 receiving yards last week.

The Beavers were 5-7 SU last year, including 1-5 in road and neutral site games (4-2 ATS). They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a road underdog.

The Beavers defense is fast, but undersized up front. That seems to be a recipe for disaster against the huge Badgers offensive line even with defensive tackle Kevin Frahm (knee) returning.

The ‘D’ is also inexperienced overall with just three returning starters. Jeff Fleming threw for 257 yards last week against what was supposed to be a promising secondary.

This is the second meeting between the teams, the first coming in 1961. Wisconsin did struggle at home against then Pac-10 Arizona State last year, a fortunate 20-19 victory as 11 ½-point favorites.

Weather will not be an issue, clear and reaching the upper 70s. Wisconsin kicker Philip Welch (quad) is listed as doubtful after missing last week. Freshman Kyle French hit a 29-yard field goal last week in his only attempt, but missed an extra point.

[StarDust Bum]

Big XII on Last Legs

September 7, 2011

"A chain is only as strong as its weakest link" - Anonymous

We’ve seen the above quote many times in many places, including countless references to sport. But we have to wonder if its inverse might actually be true as the college conference landscape gets set for another round of ground shifting in the coming months.

Perhaps "a conference is as weak as its strongest link" would be more appropriate.

That would certainly seem to apply to the current doings in the Big XII, which is providing an ongoing forum in human behavior, not to mention a socio-economic lesson to proceedings in flyover country.

Whatever, the Big XII is on the ropes. And after plenty of shifting of tectonic plates in the college sports world over the past two years, the pending rupture in the Big XII will reverberate like a magnitude 9.0 earthquake.

The Big XII as we have known it was doomed over a year ago. It might be doomed completely by this time next year.

Texas A&M’s recent announcement that it is leaving the conference came as no surprise to anyone who has been following developments in the region. The Aggies have been seething forever at playing second fiddle to the University of Texas. And when the Pac-10 (now Pac-12) came calling last year, looking to annex most of the Big XII South to become the Pac-16 instead, it was A&M that initially put the brakes to the chatter. More specifically, ex-coach and Board member Gene Stallings, who not-so-gently suggested that the Aggies didn’t have to follow Texas anywhere, and that a move to the SEC would be in A&M’s better interests. That slowed down the secession talk long enough for the Big XII to plug the leaks in its dike and temporarily emerge as a 10-team league after the departures of Nebraska and Colorado, while giving the Longhorns their blessing of creating a new TV network along with ESPN.

All of that, however, was done through clenched teeth everywhere except Austin. But the seeds of the Big XII’s demise had been sewn long ago.

Political scientists would be well-served to take note of the Big XII and college athletic conference mechanics, and big-time sports in general, which provide their own test-tubes for various ideologies. That college sports, football in particular, has emerged as a massive money-maker is only part of the equation. It’s how the riches are to be divided that has set the stage for unrest and conference shifting, and will continue to do so in the future.

The NFL remains the standard to which all sports organizations, pro and college, aspire, but human nature being as it is, it’s not easy for other entities to play by similar rules. Simply, the NFL splits its collectively-negotiated revenue, via TV and its NFL Properties merchandising division, equally among its members. Credit former commissioner Pete Rozelle for hammering that idea home to the ownership group as the NFL entered the big time in the 1960s. Thus, nobody is getting richer or poorer than anyone else in the now 32-team NFL. Whatever differences in revenues have to do with stadium lease deals, luxury suites/ticket sales, and other factors. But the biggest money generators, the network TV deals, are divided equally.

Pro football differs from other sports in that the network TV deal is its biggest cash cow. Baseball has long grappled with inherent inequities in the sale of local broadcasting rights, which are fairly inconsequential in the NFL model but a very big deal in MLB, which still hasn’t figured out a way to level the playing field between the Yankees, Royals and others that generate such a disparate amount of local broadcast dollars. Unlike the NFL, the network TV deals are not the most important revenue source in baseball. The NBA and NHL have tried to mimic the NFL model as best as they could, but have been hamstrung by short-sighted Collective Bargaining Agreements that have turned franchise ownership mostly into a money-losing enterprise. Across the pond, European sport, soccer in particular, continues to struggle with the revenue inequity arguments that have forever tilted the playing fields to the advantage of the big-money clubs such as Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Barcelona.

Colleges have a similar set of circumstances, but not every conference works under the same sets of rules. Here, the Big Ten has actually set the standard, with an equal split of its TV revenues among its members, who all rake in the same amounts from deals with ESPN, ABC, and the recently-created Big Ten Network. The SEC also splits its TV revenues among member institutions. Unlike the NFL, however, colleges mostly go it alone on their merchandising deals; Minnesota doesn’t get a dime of Ohio State souvenir sales, and vice versa.

Still, TV money is hugely important in college sport, and the fair, or rather unfair, division of it can be a source of acrimony. Such as it has been in the Big XII, where conference-wide TV deals have always been slanted toward the power schools. Texas and Iowa State have never been equal partners in the Big XII TV lode. The Pac-10, in its former configuration, had a similarly imbalanced TV revenue formula.

The Pac-10, now Pac-12, saw the light, however, and its renegotiated TV contracts, spearheaded by visionary new commissioner Larry Scott, are now splitting the riches. Meanwhile, what’s left of the Big XII, though having signed lucrative new TV deals in the last year, still slants toward Texas, especially since the Longhorns have teamed with ESPN to form their own network.

We should let history decide whether that move turns out to be folly; our early thoughts are that the Longhorn Network is a case of ESPN biting off more than it can chew, and that there is no real market for the enterprise outside of the Lone Star State. Whatever the fate of the Longhorn Network, the sounds you hear from the midlands are the gnashing of teeth by other remaining Big XII members having to again play second fiddle to the Longhorns.

Simply, college sports, and sports in general, function a lot better with elements of socialism built into the revenue splits. At least those revenues that are collectively negotiated. When that basic economic tenet is altered, the foundation of the alliance is forever at risk. Which is exactly what has happened in the Big XII.

What is ironic is that none other than Texas is apparently wondering again if it ought to abandon the Big XII and hitch up with the likes of Oklahoma, and likely Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, in a belated bolt to the Pac-12, an idea first broached last year by aforementioned commissioner Scott, who wanted to annex most of the Big XII South and Colorado a year ago. Now, however, with A&M casting its eyes upon the SEC and Oklahoma apparently leaning toward alignment with the Pac-12, Texas sees the handwriting on the wall. The Big XII, in danger of losing more schools than A&M, risks becoming a watered-down regional league not too different from the Mountain West or Conference USA. Suddenly, Texas’ future, either in the Big XII or as an independent, doesn’t seem quite as appealing.

What should we expect? Don’t be surprised if A&M sits in limbo for a little while; like Noah’s Ark, such conference moves are best made in pairs, and it is doubtful the SEC will officially welcome the Aggies until a partner school can be found. It won’t be hard, as candidates will be scurrying to get into the queue. Any delay is nothing more than a formality, with the only question being if the SEC wants to add one more school along with A&M to reach 14 teams, or go whole hog and add three more to get to the magic 16 level, where many observers believe all of the big leagues are eventually to be headed anyway.

Who joins A&M in the SEC? Oklahoma would be a natural addition, but school president David Boren, a former US senator, is apparently not interested in joining such a lawless alliance. Reports are that he would much rather the Sooners look west to the Pac-12, and bring along Oklahoma State. Missouri, however, is one Big XII school itching to escape from the current alliance; the Tigers were reportedly crestfallen at being bypassed for Big Ten membership last year in favor of Nebraska. Mizzou brings a new fan base and TV markets to the SEC, so the Tigers would not apparently ruffle any existing feathers in the SEC, which needs "yay" votes from only 9 of its 12 members to expand. If the SEC is really hungry for exposure in the Lone Star State beyond A&M, it could also court TCU (which would probably unravel its deal with the Big East, pronto, to hook up with the SEC), or perhaps Texas Tech. Sources say the current SEC membership might not look favorably upon adding any more Florida schools, of which Florida State and Miami might be candidates, simply because the Gators from Gainesville would frown upon it. Virginia Tech has also been mentioned as a possibility and certainly fits the SEC football prototype. As might Clemson and Georgia Tech (once an SEC member itself), although in-state South Carolina and Georgia might object to the Tigers and Yellow Jackets, respectively.

We expect that before the 2012 football season commences, the future of the Big XII will be determined. A&M is on the way out, and we suspect Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri are ready to bolt as well. We suspect the chances are about 50-50 that Texas decides to go to the Pac-12 along with the Oklahoma schools and perhaps Texas Tech, although the Longhorn Network could pose problems. The Longhorns could also do an about-face and tell the SEC that they’re interested, but we find that scenario to be very unlikely; the Horns would not want to go anywhere they might not be the big boys on the block.

Texas’ future, should it stay aligned with what is left of the Big XII, would diminish its appeal. Should Texas bolt, either for another conference or independent status, we suppose the likes of Baylor, Iowa State, and the Kansas schools could try to cobble together a "new" Big XII alliance (how about reinstating the old "Big 8" name?) with the likes of Houston, SMU, perhaps BYU, and maybe another current Conference USA school. Which is why we won’t at all be surprised to see the Kansas schools and, if anyone is interested, Iowa State and Baylor, soon look to secure their futures somewhere outside of the Big XII as well. Stay tuned for further developments, which could include a domino effect with other leagues outside of the region (Big Ten, ACC, and Big East) looking to make further moves as the college landscape realigns.

Whatever, the grand plan of the Big XII, hatched in 1996, now looks to be in shambles, thanks mainly to Texas’ hubris and greed. Ironically, all of these shenanigans, including most of the inane conference shifting of the past two decades, could have been avoided by instituting a real college football playoff, and the riches it could deliver. As we mentioned last autumn, picking up a copy of Dan Wetzel & Co.’s excellent book, Death to the BCS, will spell out things exactly.

Another subject, however, for another day.

[StarDust Bum]

News & Notes - Week 2

September 7, 2011

Rutgers was not as impressive as the final indicates vs NC Central. Starting QB Dodd engineered 3 scoring drives in the 1H but Rutgers only finished with a 347-120 yd edge. Leading 21-0, RU blew it open scoring 2 defensive TD's in a :45 span when DL Vallone fell on a fmbl in the EZ for a TD and 2 plays later Harmon got a 37 yd IR TD to make it 35-0. Backup QB Gary Nova who hit 6-17-97, led the team on a 57/3pl with a 44 yd TD pass then a 10 yd drive for a 36 yd FG (after fmbl) and a 54/14pl drive for a 22 yd FG with 10:35 left to close out the scoring. NC Central was sacked 9 times and turned it over 4 times...

Utah jumped out to a 24-0 lead vs Montana State but only had 16-12 FD and 292-258 yd edges. They had an 8 yd TD drive after a 35 yd IR, and hit a 37 yd FG after a blk'd punt...

Dave Clawson has done a great job at Bowling Green and a great job in openers. This year they were an underdog at Idaho and gave up a TD on the first drive and were SOD at the UI39 on their first drive but BG scored TD's on their next 4 poss followed by a FG and led 30-7 at the half with a 377-179 yd edge. UI pulled within 30-15 with 14:44 left in the game but IU was pinned at their 2 and tackled for a safety and after punting on their next poss, UI fmbl'd at their own 30 & 49 on the final 2. BG finished with a 478-280 yd edge...

Florida International only had 22-17 FD and 401-301 yd edges but NT's 2 TD's both came via the defense. FIU got a 62 yd KR by TY Hilton and drove 29/4pl for a TD then after North Texas was SOD at the FIU40, got a 60/1pl TD pass to Hilton, 14-0. FIU went 93/9pl for a TD then after a fmbl, 33/2pl for a TD and led 28-0. It was 31-7 at the half with FIU having a 284-100 yd edge. NT did miss 48 and 41 yd FG's in the 3Q and trailed 41-14 and were SOD at the 1 yd line with 1:23 left but got a safety on the next play...

Western Kentucky had a 13-11 FD edge vs Kentucky and the D's dominated with 19 punts. WKU had a slim 234-190 yd edge. UK's 2 scoring "drives" were a 22 yd TD drive in the 2Q (after an int) to lead 7-3 at the half. UK, on 3&14, got a 58 yd run by Newton down to the WKU26 and on 2&15, a 31 yd TD pass with 4:35 left to make it 14-3 and that was the final...

The Mississippi State offense rolled up 405 yards in the 1H and finished with a school record 645 total yards. Memphis didn't cross midfield until the 2Q. Miss St avg over 9 ypp and finished with a 645-338 yd edge...

It sure was an exciting Friday night ESPN game and Baylor's offense was very impressive. TCU has led the nation in defense the L3Y and in their worst game LY they allowed 361 yards. Baylor amassed a surprising 367 yards in the 1H! TCU did miss 2 FG's and 2 xp's in the first 3Q's and trailed 47-23 but charged back to take the lead 48-47 with 4:31 left. TCU had their streak of 25 consecutive reg ssn games snapped in this loss. Baylor had not beaten a ranked team since 2004. Last year TCU had beat BU 45-10. TCU drove for TD's on the next 3 poss and got two 2 pt conv but had the 3rd one go off of the WR's hands to trail 47-45. QB Griffin fumbled and TCU took over at the BU39 but settled for a 27 yd FG with 4:27 left. BU then hit a 3&10, 15 yd pass for a FD and continued on a drive to get a 37 yd FG with 1:04 left. TCU got to the BU40 but on 3&10 was int'd at the 20 and BU held on for the upset...

The Connecticut game was moved from Thurs to Sat due to the use of their home stadium by Hurricane Irene relief staff. RFr TB Lyle McCombs ran for 141 yards and 4 TD's with 2 in each half. UC used all 3 QB's and they combined to hit 12-21-228 yds. Fordham was 5-6 LY and was playing their first FBS foe since 1954 as they just began offering scholarships last year. UC finished with a 21-8 FD and 434-169 yd edges...

Ohio State rolled over Akron with 27-5 FD and 517-90 yd edges and Joe Bauserman started and QB'd all but 1 poss in the 1H with Braxton Miller's only poss resulting in a punt. Bauserman led 4 TD drives but Miller, after another punt on his first poss of the 2H, did guide 59/6 and 38/4pl TD drives and his final drive got them to the Akron 15 yd line where they ran out the clock. Bauserman hit 12-16-163 and Miller was 8-12-130 playing with mostly backups in the 2H...

The defending National Champs Auburn Tigers were generally outplayed at home by Utah St. USU had a 27-17 FD and 448-364 yd edges and twice led by double digits. They led 21-7 before the half when AU benefitted from a 97 yd KR TD. At the end of the game, USU scored a TD with just 3:38 left to lead 38-28. AUB got a 15 TD pass on 3&gl with 2:07 left then recovered an onside kick and got a TD with :31 left to escape with a 4 pt home win...

Boston College was without top RB Montel Harris and Northwestern was without QB Dan Persa. Kain Colter replaced Persa hitting 17-24-197 and ran for 71 more with a TD. BC's top RB was Andre Williams who came in questionable but rushed 22 times for 114 yards. NU trailed 10-3 but tied it 10-10 on a TD with :38 left in the half then opened the 3Q with a 60/12pl drive for a TD to lead 17-10. They extended it to 24-10 in the 4Q but BC got a TD with 6:00 left and NU was stopped on 4&1 with 1:37 left. BC took over at their 36 and got 3 FD's to the NU19 but Rettig scrambled under pressure and was tkl'd on the final play. BC finished with a 474-424 yd edge...

Purdue once again lost their QB early in the season and they were without their #2QB as well. Caleb TerBush hit 19-33-219 as the 3rd string QB and also threw the 35 yd game winning TD pass in the final minute. Middle Tennessee State had a 460-420 yd edge. MTSU trailed for just 5:22 of the 1H and led most of the 2H. PU got a FG with 5:57 left to pull within 3 and a TD with :49 left to take the lead.MTSU went 50 yards and lined up for the game tying 47 yd FG but it was blk'd by Ricardo Allen...

Alabama's 2 QB's both tossed a pair of int's but Bama dominated with a 482-90 yd edge and Kent St's only score came on a 3 yd "drive" for a TD following one of the int's. Bama had a 24-6 FD edge. Trent Richardson only had 37 yards rushing but had 3 TD's. At the half Bama had a 257-22 yd and 13-1 FD edges...

Bryn Renner made an outstanding debut for North Carolina. He completed his first 8 passes and finished 22-23-277 but had 1 int. UNC blasted FCS power James Madison 42-10 with 24-10 FD and 461-211 yd edges. Renner set the ACC record for highest single game completion % (95.7%) and he also scored a TD on a sneak early in the 4Q. Everett Withers made his coaching debut and it was very similar to what Butch Davis did in his first game as that UNC squad led JM 30-7 at the half and won 37-14...

The Houston Cougars had a nice advantage vs UCLA in that temps were in the 90's and humid. Los Angeles had not been above 75 the entire month of August. UCLA also lost QB Prince in the 2Q to concussion. Richard Brehaut hit 17-26-264 yards. UH took over with :35 left in the half and got a TD on a 64/2pl drive, the TD coming with :08 left to lead 31-14. UH led 38-28 and had the ball with 1:59 left but gave up a TD pass with 1:19 left and then had to recover the onside kick to hold on for the win. UCLA finished with a 554-469 yd edge...

Lane Kiffin continues to try some crafty things and it basically kept Minnesota in the game. LY he missed three 2 pt conv which basically cost them the cover vs the Gophers. Again USC tried 2 pt conv's after each of their first 2 TD's and once again came up short on both and only led 12-0. In the 3Q leading 19-3 Kiffin went for it on 4th&6 at the UM36 and the snap went over the QB's head for a huge loss with UM recovering at the 30 and setting up a TD. On their next drive USC was SOD on 4&1 at the UM20. UM actually pulled within 19-17 with 8:03 left and had the ball with backup QB Shortell in at their own 29 but were int'd at the 42 with :53 left. QB MarQueis Gray was inj'd and Shortell hit 7-13-98...

It was an interesting game with Colorado St/New Mexico. Each team missed a FG in the 1Q and NM fumbled at the CSU1. CSU got a TD with 1:32 left in the half to lead 7-3 but NM went 80/8pl getting a 3rd & 16, 27 yd TD pass with :12 left. That TD was their first TD in an opener since 2005 and gave them a 10-7 lead. CSU was SOD on 4&10 at the NM38 and missed a chipshot 28 yd FG early 4Q. CSU took the lead with a 40/11pl drive for a TD with 7:17 left. NM's hopes appeared out the window when on 4th & 14 they were sacked for a 7 yd loss at the CSU36 but CSU made a daring call going for it on 4&1 with 1:57 left and they were SOD. NM got 2 FD's to the 19 but another FD to the 5 was called back on a hold. On 3rd & 6 QB Austen was sk'd & fmbl'd with :09 left at the CSU18...

Houston Hutt was hoping for a heat advantage over BYU which plays in the altitude but with Tropical Storm Lee blooming, it was in the 80's under overcast skies. This was a defensive struggle as each team got a defensive TD and Ole Miss blew a 13-0 4Q lead, losing by 1. The winning score came when BYU fell on a fmbl in the EZ for a TD with 5:26 left...

Howard Schnellenberger was not on the sidelines for the Florida game as his hip acted up and he was having severe discomfort and made a hospital trip on Friday. Florida dominated in Muschamp's debut scoring on their first 4 poss and led 24-0 with FAU not picking up their first FD until 3:00 was left in the half. FAU did have a 1st&gl at the UF 4 and settled for a 26 yd FG and then missed a 34 yd FG with :05 left in the half, both following UF int's on their 5th & 6 poss. UF blk'd a punt and ret'd it 22 yds for a TD with 10:09 left 3Q but had a 1st&gl at the FA6 and was int'd in the EZ. UF's final score came on a 29 yd FG with 1:46 left to make it 41-3 and they had 30-11 FD and 468-137 yd edges...

Oklahoma St's defense was better than the stats and the score indicate. They led ULL 21-3 in the 2Q and allowed just 113 yards at the half. UL got a 37 yd IR TD by Bentley and 50 yd IR TD by Moten which pulled them within 44-20. In the 4Q trailing 51-20, UL went 82/15pl for a TD and then trailing 61-27 they took over with 2:52 left and went 80/9pl for a 3 yd TD run with :17 left. The much anticipated debut of OSU OC Todd Monken saw the team roll up 666 yards, 9th best in school history...

Pitt missed a couple of FG's in the 1H and only led 7-3 despite a 168-119 yd edge. They did get a key play in the 3Q with a 47 yd IR to the Buffalo 20 setting up a TD to make it 14-3. BUF pulled within 21-16 with 13:44 left but Pitt drove 60/6pl for a TD to make it 28-16 with 12:04 left. BUF was SOD at the Pitt38 (5:25) but Pitt fmbl'd back. BUF was SOD at the PIT12 with 2:44 left and Pitt went 88/5pl getting a TD with 1:49 left to clinch it...

Bill Callahan switched Nebraska from an option to a pro-style pass attack and Bo Pellini has slowly been switching the Huskers back. Their new OC, Tim Beck, is bringing the option back to the offense and his first call as a coordinator was a run to the FB which just happened to be the first time the Huskers had a FB carry the ball since 2004. Taylor Martinez rushed for 135 yards and passed for just 116 in the more option based offense. The Huskers led 23-0 at the half and 40-7 after 3Q's going through the motions in the 4Q and showing very little with a 365-230 yard edge.

FOURTEEN-POINT SWINGS

The Michigan/Western Michigan game was an unusual one. It was called with 1:27 left in the 3Q which actually made it an unofficial game in Las Vegas (55 min must be played, 60 for a total). While UM appeared to have an easy 24 pt win, WM shot itself in the foot in the 1Q. They took their opening drive 74/15pl for a TD, got their 2nd drive to the UM21 where they missed a 38 yd FG. The key play of the game happened when WM went on an 8 play drive. On 2nd & gl from the 5, they had a pass that was tipped and not only int'd, but ret'd 94 yds for a TD and a 14 pt swing, so instead of leading 14-7 they trailed 14-7. Later, down 20-10 at midfield QB Carder was hit & fmbl'd and Herron ret'd the fumble 28 yds for a TD to open it up 27-10. Herron became the first player in UM history to have 2 defensive TD's in the same game...

Washington State QB Jeff Tuel fractured his left clavicle and it's not known how long he'll be out. Idaho State was just 1-10 last year and has a JC QB in Kevin Yost and could surprise. Yost hit 32-45-386 yds vs the Cougars but in fairness, WSU did lead 40-0 at the half. It was 33-0 when WSU got a 61 yd Hail Mary on the final play of the 1H. ISU gained 340 of their yards in the 2H...

Kevin Wilson's debut at Indiana didn't go as planned. They did have a 226?155 yd edge at the half and led 17-14 but Ball State opened the 3Q with a 48/11pl drive for a 38 yd FG and a 70/9pl drive for a 20 yd TD pass and the lead, 24-17. Indy was SOD on 4&3 at the BSU9 with 14:51 left and BSU went on a great drive taking over with 9:30 left in the game. They ran the ball on 13 out of 14 plays on an 80 yd drive settling for a 22 yd FG with 2:12 left for a 10 pt lead, 27-17. IU went 52/9pl getting a 27 yd FG with :57 left but BSU recovered the onside kick.


TAKING OUT FRUSTRATION

The UC Bearcats had a disappointing 2010 and they were out to get off to a much better start this season. Teams in this situation generally play harder later in the game and that was the case with Cincy. The Bearcats led 34-0 with a TD with :39 left in the half then AP fumbled the KO and UC got a 3rd & 14 TD pass with :09 left 1H, 41-0. At half UC had a 351-108 yd edge and QB Collaros would not play the 2H. UC led 65-3 when AP drove 71/11pl for a TD with 8:06 left. UC, with 3rd string QB Kay in, went 72/11pl and tacked on a 14 yd TD run with 1:10 left for the 72-10 final. AP was just 2-9 last year and has only 8 scholarship seniors...

Texas wanted to build a new attitude this year with new coordinators and they played well vs Rice as they finished with a 506-224 yd edge. Texas had a 198-73 yd edge before allowing Rice a 50 yd drive at the end of the half and a 49 yd FG with :56 left. Rice actually pulled within 13-9 but UT put together 3 consecutive TD drives of 72/8, 99/8 and 94/11pl to go up 34-9. UT finished at the Rice 15 yd line.

MISLEADING FINALS

Clemson and Troy was a misleading final. At the half Troy had a 195-121 yard edge and with a late 61/5pl drive for a TD with :51 left in the half, took a 16-13 lead. A pair of TO's set up Clemson for FG's on 2 drives that combined for zero yards. CU punted to open the 3Q but then got a 54 yd pass to Allen to take the lead, 20-16. They led 26-19 with 11:20 to go when they got a 75 yd TD run by Bellamy to make it 33-19. After a punt and kick/catch interference, CU took over at the Troy28 and after a -1 yd drive kicked a 45 yd FG, 36-19. Troy fumbled and CU went 42/7pl for a TD with 1:26 left and a misleading 43-19 win. Troy had a 19-16 FD edge...

The 2H was ugly for San Jose State but in the 1H the FD's were even with SJS having 9 and SU having 9. In fact, Stanford had just a 189-162 yd edge. TO's and blown opportunities were the key. SU had a 13 yd TD "drive" after a fmbl and later an 8 yd drive for a 37 yd FG after a long PR. SJS had a 1st&gl at the 8 but settled for and missed a 23 yd FG then had a 1st&gl at the 7 and settled for a 19 yd FG. SU also had a 1 yd TD "drive" after a 39 yd FR and led 27-3 despite the game being played evenly. SJS fumbled into the EZ for a safety, was SOD on a fake punt on its own 44 and fmbl'd at their own 39 in the 2H as the game turned into a blowout.

INJURIES OF NOTE

A key in the Fresno State game was that the young O-line, breaking in 4 starters, suffered a key injury as C Richard Helepiko left with an ankle inj early in the game. Pat Hill was forced to put frosh Cody Wickman in at tackle "Our center went down early and they had to make 3 moves, we weren't intact" Hill said. "We had a guard at center and a freshman tackle". FSU only trailed 19-14 at the half despite being outgained 310-122 as they recovered a fumble for a TD and had a 16 yd drive for a TD after another TO. They did go on a 57 yd drive and missed a 35 yd FG. In the 3Q FSU was int'd at the Cal 9 and trailing 36-21 had the ball at the end but was on 4th&2 at its own 20 lost 5 yards.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

The debut of Russell Wilson was the hottest game ever in the 94 year history of Camp Randall Stadium (90? at KO). Wilson led the Badgers to 8 scores on 8 poss with 7 of those being TD's and the only FG came on a 29 yd'r on 2nd & 3 on the last play of the 1H. Wisconsin led 51-3 when Wilson came out with 8:45 was left in the 3Q. UNLV drove 75/11 and 70/9 for a pair of TD's to get in the backdoor by a half point, the latter TD coming with 11:41 left. UW finished the game at the LV22 taking a knee...

Arizona State returnman Miles was dynamic including a 98 yd KR to open the 3Q as ASU rolled to a 41-0 lead over UCDavis. UCD gained 161 of their 243 yards in the 4Q and on 4&2 with 12:10 left got a 48 yd TD run then on 4&2 got a 38 yd pass to the 1 setting up their backdoor covering TD with 6:26 left in the 48-14 final. ASU did get to the UCD17 but was SOD on 4&4 with :08 left...

Tough loss for Wake Forest who absolutely dominated the 1H with 13-2 FD and 242-52 yd edges but settled for 2 FG's and K Newman who had 14 straight FG's missed a chipshot 34 yarder. Syracuse got a TD on a 37/4pl drive after WF punted from its EZ and stunningly WF only led 20-7 despite complete domination. Each team took a 2nd & 3Q drive for a TD and it was 26-14 but WF missed a crucial xp. The key play of the game happened on WF's next drive. They were at the SU12 when on 3&19 QB Price fired a FD pass to the 2 but he injured his leg and would miss the rest of the game and a hold wiped out the completion. They settled for a FG to keep SU in the game, 29-14. SU went on 73 and 53 yd TD drives, the latter with 7:07 left to tie it. Backup QB Stachitas threw an int at the WF32 but SU K Krautman had a streak of 16 straight FG's snapped by a blk'd FG with 2:17 left. However, SU won in OT by 7...

Joe Paterno coached from the pressbox and Penn State ret'd the opening KO 95 yards for a TD. PSU dominated the 1H with a 15-2 FD and 252-66 yd edges and led 41-0 when Indiana State took over with 8:17 left and drove 62/11pl getting a TD with 2:16 left for the backdoor cover. Bolden got the start but hit just 6-12-37 yards. McGloin hit 6-8-77 yds but McGloin had 4 poss and had 3 TD's on those. Bolden had 6 poss resulting in a TD, a FG and a missed FG. Third string QB McGregger did not throw a pass but led a 12 yd TD drive in the 4Q. ISU was QB'd by Washington transfer Ronnie Fouch (PS#55) who was held to 11-23-105.

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Utah plays first-ever Pac-12 game at USC

UTAH UTES (1-0)
at USC TROJANS (1-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -9.5, Total: 52.5

Two teams coming off lackluster victories meet for the first time as Pac-12 foes when Utah visits USC. These schools last faced each other on Christmas Day 2001 when the Utes won 10-6, outrushing the Trojans 222 to 1.

After a two-point win at home over 24-point underdog Minnesota, USC has no business being a double-digit favorite over any school in a BCS conference. The Trojans are now 9-19 ATS (32%) as a favorite in their past 28 games after their near loss. Utah has historically been a great underdog play, with a stellar 43-23 ATS mark (65%) when getting points since 1992. If RB Marc Tyler doesn’t get reinstated, the Trojans have no running game. They gained 67 yards on 28 carries (2.4 YPC) against a Gophers team that allowed 191 rushing YPG last year. The pick here is UTAH.

The FoxSheets back up the Utes pick with this trend.

UTAH is 61-34 ATS (64.2%, +23.6 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. The average score was UTAH 30.6, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Utah only gained 292 yards in a 27-10 win over 29.5-point underdog Montana State last week, while USC barely beat 24-point dog Minnesota by two points. The Trojans passing game was clicking though as WR Robert Woods who caught 17 Matt Barkley passes for 177 yards and two scores.

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No. 21 Missouri faces tough test at ASU

MISSOURI TIGERS (1-0)
at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (1-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona State -7.5, Total: 53.5

The 21st-ranked Missouri Tigers visit Arizona State on Friday night knowing they will need a much better showing than their season opener. Missouri struggled to beat 19.5-point underdog Miami Ohio last Saturday, winning 17-6. However, the win gave the Tigers their 23rd straight non-conference win in the regular season.

These schools haven’t met since 1990, but Missouri is familiar with this field, having lost the Insight Bowl to Iowa in Tempe last December. In contrast to the Tigers’ Week 1 struggles, Arizona State had no problem with UC Davis, leading 41-0 after three quarters and cruising to a 48-14 victory. The Sun Devils are now 12-2 ATS in their past 14 home games, while Missouri is 2-5 ATS in its past seven non-Big 12 games. The pick here is ARIZONA STATE to win and cover on its home turf.

The FoxSheets provide a four-star coaching trend in favor of the Sun Devils.

Dennis Erickson is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Erickson 37.6, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Missouri sophomore QB James Franklin tallied 201 total yards and 2 TD in his first career start, but he didn’t have the kind of game that Tigers fans have come to expect from their past two signal callers who are now in the NFL, Chase Daniel and Blaine Gabbert. Franklin was fortunate that the Tigers defense put forth a mammoth effort, limiting the defending MAC champion RedHawks to 76 yards on 36 carries (2.1 YPC).

ASU also did a nice job stuffing the run last week, holding UC Davis to 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 YPC). The defensive star was LB Vontaze Burfict who had three sacks in the victory. Offensively, QB Brock Osweiler had a huge performance. He threw for 262 yards and 2 TD, both to Aaron Pflugrad, and the ground game rushed for 217 yards and three scores, two by Cameron Marshall.

Both teams are dealing with quite a hefty amount of injuries. For ASU, starting RT Aderious Simmons is questionable due to sprained ankle, and the team is already without three players suffering major knee injuries: WR T.J. Simpson, CB Omar Bolden and S Ezekiel Bishop. LB Brandon Magee and RB Deantre Lewis will also miss the game due to leg injuries.

On the Missouri side, LB Will Ebner (ankle) and DE Jacquies Smith (elbow) are both expected to miss Friday’s game after getting hurt in the opener. The Tigers could also be without four offensive players in WRs Jerrell Jackson (hamstring) and Gahn McGaffie (knee), TE Eric Waters (hamstring) and C Travis Ruth (Achilles). LT Elvis Fisher ruptured a tendon in his left leg in the preseason and will not play in 2011. The one piece of good injury news is that CB Kip Edwards is fully healed from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss the opener, and is expected to start.

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High-powered offenses meet Thursday night

ARIZONA WILDCATS (1-0)
at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1-0)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -14.5, Total: 65

Two explosive passing offenses square off in Stillwater on Thursday night in a rematch of the 2010 Alamo Bowl, in which Oklahoma State crushed Arizona 36-10.

Cowboys WR Justin Blackmon, who lit up the Wildcats last year with 117 receiving yards and 2 TD, had 144 of OSU’s nation’s-best 458 receiving yards in his team’s 61-34 win over Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Arizona also had a big offensive showing in a 41-10 win over Northern Arizona, but the competition is much stiffer on Thursday night with ninth-ranked Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have lost 12 straight road games to Top-10 teams by an average of 18.5 PPG. They have also not been a strong road team recently, going 6-12 ATS (33%) in the past three seasons away from home. In this same span, OSU is 13-8 ATS (62%) at home and 9-5 ATS (64%) in non-conference games. The pick here is OKLAHOMA STATE to win and cover the large spread.

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend backing the Cowboys.

OKLAHOMA ST is 16-2 ATS (88.9%, +13.8 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.8, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Most people are expecting a shootout, and so are the FoxSheets which show a rare seven-star trend urging bettors to play the OVER.

Mike Gundy is 14-0 OVER (+14.0 Units) in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of OKLAHOMA STATE. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 44.7, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 7*).

Wildcats QB Nick Foles, who threw for 3 INT in the Alamo Bowl defeat, was nearly flawless in Week 1, going 34-of-42 for 412 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT in a 41-10 win over Northern Arizona. He found his favorite target Juron Criner six times for 151 yards (25.2 avg) and a touchdown.

Brandon Weeden made some mistakes in the season-opening win over the Ragin’ Cajuns, throwing three picks. But he also threw for 388 yards and was the biggest reason his team led the nation with 666 total yards. Weeden threw for a school-record 4,277 passing yards last year, and will continue to look for Blackmon who is riding a streak of 13 straight 100-yard receiving efforts, the longest such streak in NCAA history.

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Arkansas Razorbacks Meet Lobos In Little Rock

The Razorbacks are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 trips to the gridiron.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are a huge favorite for the second week in a row when they battle the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night.

The college football odds show Arkansas as 36-point favorites with a total of 53 points. ESPNU will have the 7:00 p.m. (ET) tilt from War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, 190 miles from the Razorbacks’ Fayetteville campus.

Arkansas plays a couple of games every season in Little Rock and is 8-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread there over the last four years.

The Razorback have big expectations after going 10-3 SU last year (9-4 ATS) and earning their first-ever BCS berth (31-26 Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State). They’re currently ranked No. 14 in the AP and 12th in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.

Coach Bobby Petrino’s team actually moved down in the Don Best poll despite a 51-7 win over FCS Missouri State last week. That was a ‘cover’ of the 41 ½-point spread and Arkansas had a 44-0 lead with 4:15 left in the third, aided by Joe Adams’ two punt returns for TDs.

Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson got his first career start. He’s trying to replace the big shoes and arm of Ryan Mallett. Wilson threw for 332 yards in a relief appearance at Auburn last year and was 18-of-24 (75 percent) for 260 passing yards against Missouri State last week, splitting time with Brandon Mitchell.

Wilson and Mitchell could both see action this game, depending on how close it is. The Razorbacks have an embarrassment of riches at receiver with Adams, Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Cobi Hamilton.

Running back is more of a concern with Knile Davis (1,322 rushing yards last year) out for the year with an ankle injury. Dennis Johnson (hamstring) is doubtful after missing last week and most of last year. Ronnie Wingo Jr. had 43 rushing yards and 51 receiving as the featured back last week.

The Arkansas defense is underrated with seven returning starters from a unit that finished 36th nationally in yards allowed (347.9 YPG). It held Missouri State to 163 total yards.

New Mexico opened its season last week with a 14-10 home loss to fellow MWC school Colorado State. It was a heartbreaking defeat as the Lobos were on their opponents’ 15-yard line late in the game before a crucial fumble.

Coach Mike Locksley’s Lobos at least ‘covered’ as 6 ½-point underdogs. They were 9-15 ATS combined the last two years, while going 2-22 SU. The coach is on the hot seat, having also been marred by off-the-field incidents, including allegedly punching an assistant.

Sophomore quarterback Tarean Austin had the key fumble last week and was running for his life most of the game, getting sacked a whopping nine times. He did do some good things when he could get the pass off, 20-of-31 for 179 passing yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Deon Long had 79 of those yards and Lamaar Thomas had 34. They are major conference transfers from West Virginia and Ohio State respectively. Running back Kasey Carrier missed last week (knee injury) and is doubtful Saturday. That leaves James Wright (65 yards last week) as the main runner.

New Mexico has a new 4-2-5 defense after ranking among the worst in college football last year. Colorado State’s Pete Thomas was a very efficient 22-of-26 (84.6 percent) last week, although he was held under 200 yards (178).

The Lobos were able to win time of possession (33.5 -26.5 minutes) by running for 150 yards (57 by the quarterback Austin). It won’t be that easy against Arkansas, which means many more possessions for Wilson to pick apart the soft coverage of the secondary.

New Mexico is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a 10 ½-point underdog or more. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in its last eight road games, allowing 44.4 PPG.

Arkansas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in its last three, dipping below the 70-point betting total last week.

This is the first meeting between the teams since 1987. Weather should be partly cloudy and in the low 70s.

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Utah Utes Begin Pac-12 Play At USC Trojans

USC and Utah both failed to in Week 1 due to second-half letdowns.
The Utah Utes will play in their first official Pac-12 conference game Saturday night when they visit the Coliseum to face the USC Trojans.

The Don Best odds screen currently lists USC as an 8 ½-point favorite at home. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on the Versus Network.

USC and Utah both picked up wins in their season openers, but neither looked particularly sharp doing so. This game provides an early chance for each of these teams to make a statement. The Utes are looking to prove they belong in the Pac-12, and USC trying to climb back to a point of prominence in the Pac-12 and in all of college football this season.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has USC 18th, with Utah just outside the top 30.

Southern Cal (1-0) got tremendous performances from Matt Barkley and Robert Woods, who each had record-setting days. Barkley set a USC record of 34 completions on 45 pass attempts, finishing the day with 304 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Woods was the recipient of all three touchdown passes, bringing in 17 catches (a new USC record) for 177 yards.

With all three touchdown passes coming in the first half, USC entered halftime up 19-3, and looked well on their way to a rout over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. But the Gophers made some adjustments in the locker room, and USC failed to score another point.

Two Minnesota touchdowns later, it was 19-17, and the Golden Gophers had the ball last with a chance to win before the USC defense came up with the stop.

The Trojans are certainly happy with the defensive stand, but as a 24-point favorite, it never should have been that close.

Utah (1-0) also got off to a big start last Saturday against an FCS opponent, the Montana State Bobcats. The Utes jumped out to an early 24-0 lead, led by John White IV’s two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). He ended up with 150 rushing yards on 19 carries.

But after going up 24-0 just under four minutes into the second quarter, Utah managed only three more points for the rest of the game. The Utes failed to cover the spread as 29 ½-point favorites, winning by a final score of 27-10.

Both USC and Utah went ‘under’ the total in their opening game. Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in Utah’s last five games and all five of USC’s most recent battles.

The total for Saturday is set at 52.

Each team also seemed to pick up where they left off last season by failing to cover the spread. The Trojans are 2-5 against the spread their last seven games, and Utah is 1-6.

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Arizona at Oklahoma State

September 8, 2011

Arizona at Oklahoma State (-13.5)

Thursday, Sept. 8

8:00 pm ET

ESPN

o/u 65.5

A good start to the Thursday night play of the week as Western Kentucky clamped down on Kentucky’s offense and had no problem staying within the 19 point spread. Of course, it would have been better if I could have watched that game but ESPN was showing the Wisconsin/UNLV game. As entertaining as that game turned out to be – hey, it was fun watching Wisconsin and their dangerous offense with QB Russell Wilson at the helm - I’m glad I steered clear of that game from a betting perspective. The Badgers looked in control all night long, and to be sure, they were never in jeopardy of losing the game. However, those who backed Wisconsin at the betting window were left feeling sick as UNLV snuck in the back door with a couple of late scores to end the game 51-17. That obviously meant those holding Wisconsin -34.5 took the loss.

Ouch!

Moving on to this week, we have what would appear to be a much more competitive matchup with Arizona paying a visit to Oklahoma State. In general, sports TV networks such as ESPN don’t like to show games involving teams which have recently played each other. That probably puts a little damper on this matchup from a programming perspective because the Wildcats just faced the Cowboys last bowl season in the Alamo Bowl.

In that game Oklahoma State came out firing on all cylinders and Arizona had no response. The final score was a remarkable 36-10 beating – especially notable considering the Wildcats were only four point underdogs. The 10 points on the scoreboard was a season low for Arizona in terms of output and a season low for the points allowed for the Oklahoma State defense.

That result of that game, in combination with the fact that Oklahoma State’s offense returns nine starters and will go against an Arizona defense with only five starters back, largely explains why this number is about 10 points higher than it was last December. (home field advantage has something to do with it as well)

The good news for Arizona is that, despite only returning five starters on offense, some very key pieces are back in Tucson. QB Nick Foles, RB Keola Antolin, and WR Juron Criner (see below) give Arizona coach Mike Stoops a great foundation to build his offense around. That group certainly started out 2011 on the right foot with Foles throwing for 412 yards and five touchdowns in the season opener against Northern Arizona. Those stats make Foles the number one QB in the nation heading into this game.

Not that anyone expects the Oklahoma State defense to be on par with Northern Arizona. However, it is worth remembering that the Cowboys were only 88th in total offense in 2010 and this current team just returns five starters on that side of the ball. They will have to bring their “A” game this Thursday night to contain a dangerous Arizona offense.

Defense is always of utmost importance to Mike Stoops, who came up through the ranks as a defensive coach. His Arizona defense will be severely tested this Thursday night against QB Brandon Weeden and an offense which averaged 44.2 points per game in 2011. Scary.

If the Cowboys can get off to a fast start it might simply be to much for Foles and Arizona to answer. However, if Stoops and his bunch can survive the first quarter and settle in, this game might come down to a couple key possessions in the 4th quarter.

Best of luck to all!

Injury Note: Arizona WR Juron Criner has been downgraded to 'out' Thursday vs. Oklahoma State.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/05/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8150 Detail
09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail
Totals 46-*31-*4 59.74% +5850

Thursday, September 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona - 8:00 PM ET Arizona +14 500

Oklahoma State - Under 65.5 500

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Big 10 Report - Week 2

September 8, 2011

Penn State (+10) vs. Alabama (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Penn State didn't solve its quarterback quandary in the blowout win over FCS Indiana State. Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin combined to complete 12-of-20 passes for 114 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Penn State didn't need a ton of production from either as the Lions ran for 245 (5.1 YPC), allowed just 170 defensively, and had a 95 yard kickoff return for TD.

Alabama is the #3 team in the nation and presents the toughest out of conference opponent that any Big Ten team will face this regular season. The Crimson Tide suffocated Kent State's offense to the tune of -9 rushing yards and 99 passing yards and just 6 total first downs. 'Bama also has a QB conundrum as AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims threw a combined four INT's against Kent State. Something to consider: Alabama outgained the Lions by 126 yards didn't allow a touchdown in last seasons 24-3 win in Tuscaloosa. Penn State is 37-6 at home since 2005 (3-3 as an underdog) while Alabama is 11-2 on the road the last three seasons (8-3 ATS as a road favorite).

Michigan (+3.5) vs. Notre Dame (NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The final 17 minutes were cancelled (lightning) of the Michigan-Western Michigan matchup last week, but Michigan was up 34-10 and wasn't showing any signs of slowing. Michigan didn't look as explosive offensively as they were last season (different offensive schemes) with just 288 total yards. But they did look much improved defensively with three takeaways - including two returned for a touchdown by LB Herron.

Notre Dame makes the trip to the Big House for the first ever night game in Ann Arbor. The Irish will be extremely motivated after their mistake filled home loss to South Florida to open the season. Notre Dame outgained the Bulls by 254 total yards but turned the ball over 5 times. Tommy Rees was named the starting quarterback after outperforming Dayne Crist last week. Something to consider: Six of the last seven games between these two have been upsets, including last years win by the Wolverines (+3). Michigan has won four of the last five outright (outscoring the Irish by 11 PPG) and is 4-1 ATS in those meetings.

Injury update: Starting CB Woolfolk suffered an ankle injury against Western Michigan but should be ready for the Irish as well as LB Gordon, who missed last week.

Nebraska (-28) vs. Fresno State (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m.)

Nebraska had an easy win over Chattanooga in week one, but the offense had mixed results in its first game with a new system. QB Martinez led a strong rushing attack with 135 yards and three touchdowns, but overall the offense only totaled 364 over the FCS foe. Defensively the Huskers were stellar, allowing 230 total yards and only 13 first downs. Chattanooga averaged just 1.9 yards per carry.

Fresno could really struggle offensively if they don't play better than they did at Cal last week. The Bulldogs gained just 218 total yards and had 11 first downs against the Bears. They ran for just 68 yards (2.7 YPC) and passed for just 150. They are working with a redshirt freshman, Derek Carr, at quarterback and Nebraska's Memorial Stadium is not a forgiving place to play. Something to consider: For Nebraska; Fresno State is a major step up in competition from Chattanooga and the Bulldogs are no stranger to visiting BCS conference schools. Fresno State is 7-4 ATS in BCS conference road games since 2006.

Injury notes: Nebraska LB Will Compton is day-to-day with a foot injury. Star cornerback Alfonzo Dennard (leg) is unlikely to play on Saturday.

Wisconsin (-21) over Oregon State (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Russell Wilson had a strong debut as a Badger after transferring from NC State this summer. Wilson led the offense to scores on eight straight possessions before UW coach Bielema took the pedal off the gas with a 51-3 lead with 8:45 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Tailbacks Montee Ball and James White lived up to their preseason hype with 234 yards on 24 touches with five total touchdowns. Oregon State will be much better than UNLV was defensively as the Beavers allowed just 71 yards on 32 carries last week (albeit to FCS Sacramento State).

Though head coach Mike Riley won't publicly admit it, Oregon State has a quarterback controversy now. Junior Ryan Katz was replaced by freshman Sean Mannion at halftime with the Beavers down 3-14 against Sacramento State. Mannion led the offense to 25 2nd half points (8-of-12 for 143 yards) and tied the game before the Beavers fell in overtime. True freshman RB Malcolm Agnew ran for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Something to consider: Oregon State coach Mike Riley and UW offensive coordinator Paul Chryst developed the same offense when they worked together earlier in their careers. Chryst had two coaching stints under Riley at Oregon State. So both teams should be very familiar with each other.

Injury notes: Wisconsin starting left guard Travis Frederick likely will miss this week's game against Oregon State after suffering a slight MCL sprain in the opener.

Iowa (-7) at Iowa State (Fox Sports Network, 12:00 p.m.)

Iowa had little trouble pulling away from FCS Tennessee Tech last week and coasted to a win after taking a 27-0 lead at halftime. QB Vandenberg threw for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first start since 2009. Starting running back Marcus Coker fumbled twice and only gained 41 yards.

Iowa State was outgained by FCS Northern Iowa and needed a touchdown run with 40 seconds left to avoid the upset. QB Steele Jantz completed just 18-of-40 passes for 187 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Something to consider: Iowa has won the last three meetings against rival ISU by a an average margin of 24 points per game (average final score of 29-5) and has covered the last two games.

Injury update: Jason White takes over as backup running back to Coker this week after freshman Mika'il McCall suffered a season ending ankle injury last week.

Ohio State (-19) vs. Toledo (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m.)

The Buckeyes thoroughly dominated Akron last week. OSU had 427 more yards and 22 more first downs and the Zips were completely outmatched by the Buckeyes. QB's Bauserman and Miller combined to complete 20-of-28 passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns and both will split time again this week.

Toledo is no slouch of an opponent. The Rockets are the favorite to win the MAC this season and head coach Tim Beckman has the recent history of taking down BCS Schools. Toledo took down Michigan in 2008, Colorado in 2009, and Purdue in 2010. They only lost nine lettermen from last year's squad and tallied up 58 points and 591 yards in a week one win over New Hampshire. Something to consider: Ohio State was 7-2 ATS as a double digit favorite last season and 8-0 ATS at home. Toledo HC Beckman served as a CB's coach at OSU in 2005-06 and the Rockets are a surprising 4-5 against the Big Ten Since 2000.

Suspension update: OSU reinstated four players - RB Jordan Hall, LB Jordan Whiting, CB Travis Howard, and DB Corey Brown - after they were suspended for the season opener.

Michigan State (-32) vs. Florida Atlantic (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State used a strong 2nd half to pull away from FCS Youngstown State last week - but failed to cover the 34-point spread. QB Kirk Cousins lived up to the preseason hype by completing 18-of-22 passes (82%) for 222 yards. The RB trio of Baker, Bell, and Caper combined for 153 yards (5.5 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Florida Atlantic was completely shutdown on offense against Florida last week. The Owls gained just 137 total yards and had 11 first downs in its trip to Gainesville (L 3-41). The Owls averaged just 1.0 yard per carry (30 carries for 30 yards) and were 2-of-13 on third downs. FAU is 0-19 in true road games against BCS schools, losing by an average score of 45-9.

Something to consider: Although they have a poor record in BCS road games, FAU has performed rather well against MSU in the last two meetings (2008 & 2010). The Owls covered both games and lost by 17 and 13, respectively.

Minnesota (-19.5) vs. New Mexico State (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Gophers didn't come away with a win against USC but showed that they could be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten this season. They struggled to slow USC's passing offense (304 yards, 3 touchdowns), but limited points in the narrow 17-19 defeat. Minnesota is 14-2 since 1995 in home openers, but did lose to FCS South Dakota last year.

New Mexico State was 2-10 a year ago and was dominated by Ohio at home in the opener last week. The Aggies had just six total rushing yards (0.3 YPC) while allowing the Bobcats to rush for 241. QB Manley passed for 362 yards and could have another big day if the Gophers don't shore up their pass defense.

Something to consider: Minnesota hasn't been a double digit favorite against an FBS school since 2007 (overtime loss to Bowling Green). They are just 4-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2007 (9-18 straight up at home over that span).

Purdue (-1) at Rice - (CBS Sports Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Purdue needed a field goal block at the end of the game to avoid overtime against Middle Tennessee State last week. Fill-in QB Caleb TerBush completed 19-of-33 passes for 219 yards and two scores. Another bright spot was RB Bolden, who rushed for 120 yards after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Defense will be the focus this week after Purdue surrendered 460 yards to MTSU.

Rice was only losing by four points midway through the 3rd quarter before surrendering three late touchdowns in the 25-point defeat. The Owls allowed 506 total yards to the Longhorns and struggled mightily against Texas' defense; tallying just 224 total yards.

Something to consider: Purdue has dropped three straight road openers by an average of 10 points per game and the Boilers are 3-8 on the road since 2008.

Injury update: 2010 starting QB Robert Marve returned to practice this week and could suit up for the Boilers on Saturday (splitting time with TerBush).

Indiana (+6.5) vs. Virginia - (Big Ten Network, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Indiana was pushed around by Ball State last week. BSU had more first downs and more total yards and spoiled the Hoosiers home opener. Ed Wright-Baker won the QB job over the summer and remains under center after a strong performance last week (20-of-32 for 272 yards with one touchdown).

Virginia was a bottom feeder in the ACC last season but returns 18 starters to form a much improved squad. They dominated FCS William & Mary last week, 40-3, with a balanced attack of 240 rushing yards and 256 passing yards.

Something to consider: Virginia beat Indiana, 47-7, back in 2009. The Cavs torched UI for 536 total yards and five rushing touchdowns. However, Virginia has dropped five straight road openers by 17 points per game.

Injury update: Two starters, LB Beckum and RT Hager, sustained injuries in the opener and aren't expected to play.

Added Games

Northwestern (-32) vs. Eastern Illinois - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Wildcats recorded conferences most impressive victory of the opening week, beating Boston College on the road without star quarterback Dan Persa. QB Kain Colter completed 17-of-24 passes in his absence and led the Wildcats to 424 yards of total offense against a stout defensive unit.

Eastern Illinois finished 2-9 last season and lost to Big Ten member Iowa, 7-37. Northwestern is 4-0 against FCS opponents since 2007, winning by an average score of 36-6.

Injury update: Persa remains questionable this week, and don't expect Northwestern to rush him back against an FCS team if he's not fully ready.

Illinois vs. South Dakota State - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m.)

Illinois pulled away from Arkansas State after a slow start for an 18-point victory last week. Sophomore QB Scheelhaase was impressive with 267 passing yards and two touchdowns while the running backs combined to rush for 202 yards. Arkansas State is no slouch offensively and the Illini played well, allowing just 350 total yards and 15 first downs.

FCS South Dakota State was 5-6 last season including a 17-3 loss to Nebraska. The Illini can't get caught looking ahead to a marquee matchup against Arizona State next week.

Something to consider: Illinois is 7-0 against FCS opponents over the last 8 seasons with an average score of 42-13.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Night Lights

September 8, 2011

Gamblers have a pair of ESPN games to wager on Friday night, starting with Florida International at Louisville before a late-night contest between Missouri and Arizona State.

Most books are listing Louisville (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) as a four-point home favorite with a total of 48. Bettors can take FIU to win outright for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Charlie’s Strong team opened the season last Thursday with a 21-9 home win over Murray St. The Cardinals never threatened to cover the number as 28 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ The 30 combined points stayed well ‘under’ the 59-point total.

FIU (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) also opened last Thursday, cruising to a 41-16 win over North Texas as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Darriet Perry and Kendrick Rhodes ran for two touchdowns apiece and combined to rush for more than 170 yards, while quarterback Wesley Carroll, a transfer from Mississippi St., completed 16-of-22 throws for 193 yards and one TD without an interception.

Kick-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern at Papa John’s Stadium. ESPN will provide television coverage.

Arizona St. (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) opened as a six-point favorite at most books this past Sunday night. However, as of Thursday afternoon, most spots had ASU favored by 7 ½ with a total of 52 ½. Gamblers can back Missouri (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) on the money line for a generous plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

Dennis Erickson’s squad won its opener over UC Davis by a 48-14 count but disappointed its backers as a 37 ½-point home favorite. QB Brock Osweiler threw for 262 yards and hit Aaron Pflugrad for a pair of scoring strikes, while Cameron Marshall had two rushing touchdowns. Jamal Miles started the second half with a 98-yard KO return for a TD that gave the Sun Devils a commanding 31-0 advantage.

Missouri barely got past Miami (OH.) in its opener, capturing a 17-6 win as a 19 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Sophomore QB James Franklin made his first career start and had both good moments and bad. Franklin brings a scrambling dynamic that first-round pick Blaine Gabbert didn’t have, as evidenced by 72 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries.

Franklin completed 17-of-26 passes for 129 yards with one TD and one interception. T.J. Moe had a team-high six receptions for 56 yards.

Gary Pinkel’s squad is dealing with injuries galore. RB Kendial Lawrence, who rushed for 422 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry in 2010, remains ‘out’ indefinitely with a leg injury. Senior WR Jerrell Jackson, who had 50 catches for 656 yards and three TDs last year, is ‘out’ with a pulled hamstring.

Two starting offensive linemen are also ‘out’ of the lineup. Junior C Travis Ruth injured his Achilles against the RedHawks and OT Elvis Fisher is done for the year with a torn patella tendon. On the defensive side, senior LB Will Ebner sprained his ankle last week and won’t play Friday night. Ebner was the team’s third-leading returning tackler from 2010.

ASU has plenty of medical issues of its own. For starters, first-team All Pac-10 selection Omar Bolden, one of the league’s best cover corners, tore his ACL in the spring and won’t be back anytime soon. Also, senior LB Brandon McGee (73 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for losses in 2010) is done for the year with a torn Achilles.

On offense, WR T.J. Simpson (29 catches for 481 yards LY) tore his ACL in the spring and will likely miss the entire season. In addition, senior starting OT Aderious Simmons is ‘doubtful’ for Mizzou with an ankle sprain. And finally, RB Deantre Lewis (539 rushing yards, 4 TDS and 5.9 YPC LY) is ‘questionable’ with a hamstring injury.

During Erickson’s five-year tenure at ASU, the Sun Devils have compiled a 12-7 spread record as home favorites. Only four of those 19 spots had ASU favored by single digits at home and it went 2-2 ATS in those four outings.

As for Gary Pinkel’s 11-year stay at Missouri, the Tigers have posted an 11-11 spread mark in 22 games as road underdogs.

These schools haven’t met since 1990 when Missouri collected a 30-9 win. However, the last meeting in Tempe went ASU’s way by a 19-3 score in 1989.

ESPN will have the telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--FIU is 9-13 ATS as a road underdog during Mario Cristobal’s five-year tenure at the Miami school that started its football program just nine years ago.

--U of L is 2-3 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ since Charlie Strong took over before the 2010 campaign.

--Since 2004, Penn St. is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog. The Nittany Lions are 10-point home underdogs Saturday vs. Alabama. The Tide beat up on PSU by a 24-3 score as a 12 ½-point home favorite in Tuscaloosa last season.

--Georgia has been a home underdog just twice on Mark Richt’s watch. The Dawgs failed to cover in both spots – a 14-9 loss to South Carolina in 2001 and a 51-33 loss to Tennessee in 2006.

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Games to Watch - Week 2

September 8, 2011


Saturday - Oregon State at Wisconsin (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Oregon St. vs. Wisconsin

The Wynn opened Wisconsin as a 16-point favorite Sunday night and I immediately noted (via twitter) that that number was way too short and that I had made the Badgers 21-point 'chalk.' When the other books chimed in over the next hour and change, most went with Wisconsin by 18 or 18 ½. By Monday afternoon, the number had settled at 21 and the total went out at 57 late Tuesday. Brett Bielema's team's team raced out to a 51-3 lead over UNLV in its opener last Thursday, but it failed to cover as a 35-point home favorite when UNLV got the backdoor cover thanks to a pair of fourth-quarter TDs against Wisconsin's back-ups. The jury is still out on Wisconsin's defense, but the offense looks like a juggernaut with its traditional power running game and a dynamic QB in Russell Wilson, who can make plays with his arm and his scrambling. Oregon St. got off to an awful start last week, losing outright at home to Sacramento St. The Beavers were playing without four starters, including star WR James Rodgers, and none of those four are expected to be in uniform at Camp Randall.



Saturday - Utah at USC (Versus, 7:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Utah vs. USC

Utah will get its first taste of Pac-12 play when it comes to Southern California to face USC, which was barely able to hold off Minnesota by a 19-17 count in Week 1. Matt Barkley completed 34-of-45 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Robert Woods hauled in 17 catches for 177 yards and all three TDs. Lane Kiffin's incompetence was evident when a pair of two-point conversions failed following first-half TDs. Those decisions had Minnesota in position to get into field-goal range for a game-winning kick in the final minute, but the Trojans intercepted a pass at midfield with 53 ticks remaining. Utah beat Montana St. 27-10 in its opener thanks to John White, who rushed for 150 yards and one TD and caught a TD pass from Jordan Wynn. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing USC as a nine-point favorite with a total of 52 ½. Gamblers can take the Utes to win outright for a plus-290 payout (risk $100 to win $290). Kyle Whittingham's squad has compiled a 12-8 spread record in 20 underdog situations during his seven-year tenure.




Saturday - Notre Dame at Michigan (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Most betting shops opened Notre Dame as a short favorite Sunday night and the early money came in on the Irish. By Monday afternoon, most books had Brian Kelly’s team favored by 4 ½, but that number was down to 3 ½ by Wednesday. The total opened at 55 or 55 ½ at most spots. I called Notre Dame an overrated squad all summer and it lived up to my expectations in its 23-20 season-opening home loss to South Florida as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ Tommy Rees threw for 296 yards in relief of Dayne Crist and Kelly has named Rees as the starting QB this week. As for Michigan, it won a 34-10 decision over Western Michigan in Brady Hoke’s debut at The Big House. Unfortunately for Michigan backers, it was unable to cash tickets laying 14 points because the game was called due to weather before 55 minutes was played. When these bitter rivals met last year, the Wolverines went into South Bend and emerged with a 28-24 victory as 3 ½-point road underdogs. They have beaten the Irish in four of the last five head-to-head encounters.




Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

BYU at Texas - BYU rallied from a 13-0 deficit with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to nip Ole Miss 14-13 in Oxford. However, the Cougars failed to cover the number as two-point road 'chalk.' Meanwhile, Texas took the cash in its 34-9 Week 1 win over Rice as a 23 ½-point home favorite. As of Wednesday, most books were listing the Longhorns as seven-point favorites with a total of 48 ½.

TCU at Air Force - During a six-game stretch last season, TCU's nasty defense allowed only 23 combined points. But in last Friday's opener, Baylor more than doubled that scoring output in just 60 minutes, capturing a thrilling 50-48 win as a four-point home underdog. The Horned Frogs better put that loss in the rearview mirror with a trip to Air Force looming. Most spots have TCU as a two-point favorite with a total of 49.

Cincinnati at Tennessee - Tyler Bray threw for 293 yards and three TDs to lead UT to a 42-16 win over Montana. Zach Collaros threw four TD passes as Cincy cruised to a 72-10 win over Austin Peay. Most spots have made the Vols six-point favorites with a total of 53. They are 3-0 ATS as single-digit home favorites on Derek Dooley's watch, while the Bearcats are 0-4 as road 'dogs under Butch Jones.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/05/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8200 Detail
09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail
Totals 47-*32-*4 59.49% +5900

Friday, September 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida International - 7:00 PM ET Florida International +3.5 500

Louisville - Over 46.5 500

Missouri - 10:30 PM ET Missouri +10 500

Arizona State - Over 52 500

[StarDust Bum]

Michigan looks to put Notre Dame in 0-2 hole

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (0-1)
at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (1-0)


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT

Line: Notre Dame -3.5, Total: 55.5

Michigan will attempt to beat Notre Dame for the fifth time in six tries when the two schools clash on Saturday. Last year it was the Denard Robinson show, as the Michigan QB racked up a school-record 502 total yards (258 rushing, 244 passing) and three touchdowns in the 28-24 win in South Bend.

While Michigan won a rain-shortened opener over Western Michigan 34-10, the Fighting Irish lost 23-20 at home to South Florida in a game that was delayed twice by the nasty weather. Tommy Rees will start at QB, replacing Dayne Crist. In the USF loss, Rees was much more effective (24-of-34, 296 yds, 2 TD) than Crist was (7-for-15, 95 yds, 0 TD). However, Rees threw two picks as his team had five turnovers, while opportunistic Michigan forced three turnovers in less than 45 minutes of action last week. The Wolverines are 5-1 at home against Notre Dame since 1997, scoring exactly 38 points in the past three home wins in the series. Until the Irish figure out a way to slow down Robinson, the pick here is MICHIGAN to win.

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend siding with the Wolverines.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. (30-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

Notre Dame actually moved the ball very well against USF despite the final score, outgaining the Bulls 508 to 254. WR Michael Floyd was his typical unstoppable self, catching 12 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Junior Cierre Wood had 148 total yards (104 rushing, 44 receiving), gaining a healthy 5.0 yards per carry. The Irish also had some positive defensive efforts, holding USF to 3.0 YPC and a pitiful 2-for-14 on third-down conversions.

Michigan will win this game by rushing the football. Last week against Western Michigan, the team ran for 190 yards on just 26 carries (7.3 YPC). Sophomore Fitzgerald Toussaint had 11 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns, while senior Michael Shaw capped the scoring with a 44-yard TD run. Robinson, who rushed for 46 yards on just eight carries, did a nice job spreading the ball around on offense. He only completed nine passes, but still found six different receivers. Roy Roundtree had a huge game last year against the Irish, catching eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown.