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The Bum's CFB Week # 1 Best Bets

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  • #46
    Tale of the tape: Miami at Maryland

    Miami at Maryland (-4, 46.5)

    The line

    Maryland opened as a 4-point home underdog before the news of Miami’s suspensions came down. After learning eight Hurricanes were banned, including quarterback Jacory Harris and Sean Spence, oddsmakers moved Maryland to a 4-point favorite. The total is down to 46.5 after opening at around 48.

    Offense

    Backed by a balanced offense, Miami put up 421 yards and 26.2 points per game last season. The Hurricanes averaged 5.8 yards per play despite a completion percentage of 53. With the quarterback situation still up in the air, the ‘Canes will pound the running game again this season. They averaged 182.5 yards per game on the ground last season, piling up five yards per rushing play. Two areas they’ll look to improve this season are red zone efficiency and discipline. They scored 76 percent of the time inside the 20 last year and were whistled for 72 penalty yards per game.

    With Danny O’Brien taking the snaps last season, the Terrapins piled up 32.2 points per game. O’Brien was efficient, firing for more than 2,400 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Terps averaged 7.3 yards per pass and completed around 57 percent of their attempts, while allowing 22 sacks on the season. Maryland’s running game put up about 138 yards per game, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt.

    Defense

    Last year’s Hurricanes gave up just 150 yards per game through the air – good for third in the nation – while also tying for sixth overall with 21 interceptions. Miami also did a great job getting after the quarterback with 37 sacks last season (14th in FBS). That helped this unit allow 342 yards and 22.4 points per game, while holding its opposition to fewer than five yards per play on the year. The Hurricanes really buckled down on third down, allowing offenses to convert only 35 percent of those attempts.

    Maryland stuffed the run last season, allowing only 3.6 yards per rush and 134 yards per game on the ground. That helped them yield only 23.8 points per game (377 yards). The Terps finished last season with 28 sacks and 19 interceptions, while averaging two takeaways per contest. Maryland’s opposition scored only 74 percent of the time when they entered the red zone

    Special teams

    Maryland hit 77.8 percent of its field goal attempts last season (47th in FBS) and was 48th in the nation averaging 41.7 yards per punt. The Terps really struggled with kickoff returns, managing just 18.3 yards, but were much better returning punts. They averaged 16.9 yards per punt return, which ranked them third in the nation.

    Miami’s punt return game was terrible at 4.5 yards per return, though the kickoff return numbers were a bit better at 19.7 yards per attempt. The Hurricanes converted 76.5 percent of their field goals, but attempted just 17 on the year while also missing three extra point tries. They averaged 44 yards per punt (41.4 yards net).

    Word on the street

    "We're not really focusing who's going to play there, who's not. It's going to be the same scheme. They're going to be athletic. They're going to be fast. They're going to be aggressive. They have playmakers." – Maryland quarterback Danny O’Brien on facing the shorthanded Hurricanes.

    "We're playing a lot of freshmen under the lights in a big setting. …Ultimately, you've got to cut the cord and let them go do it." – Hurricanes coach Al Golden.

    Final score prediction

    Maryland 27 Miami 17
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #47
      Las Vegas Betting Notes

      September 5, 2011


      Even though there was a nice mix of favorites and underdogs winning on the first weekend of college football, the Las Vegas sports books found themselves either a small winner or break even for the day. Usually when the favorites only go 20-18 on the weekend, the books can expect to do very well. But on Saturday it was more a matter of what favored teams covered allowing the public to have their share of success.

      “Bettors did very well on a few of the high profile teams with large points spreads and the parlays between those teams negated what could have been a really good day for us,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “The combination of Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama and Stanford were a popular choice among the public and all four covered the spread quite easily.”

      The two late feature games on Saturday with Boise State-Georgia and Oregon-LSU were the most heavily bet games of the weekend, but didn’t have much of an impact to the bottom line.

      "The public split with those games," said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book director Jay Kornegay. “The action was great on each, but the majority of bettors took the sides of Boise State and Oregon. Even with all the large handle on those games, we really wouldn’t have been hurt too much, nor won too much, with any of the possible outcomes because the games were pretty evenly balanced.“

      One of the best decisions of the first week was UNLV covering 35 ½-points at Wisconsin on Thursday night, despite the Badgers appearing to having the game in control from the start in their 51-17 win. The early line from last month was Wisconsin -32, but by the start of last week -- when most of the action was taken until kickoff, that number was long gone.

      Friday night’s spectacular Baylor-TCU game was also good for the sports books with four-point underdog Baylor winning outright 50-48. Not only was TCU a popular play with the public, but surprisingly, so was the UNDER. It’s almost a natural reaction for recreational bettors to bet the OVER of any sporting event, but the total in this game dropped from 56 to 52 ½ by kickoff spurred by both sharp and small money.

      Another good decision for the sports books was Auburn not covering 23 ½-points against Utah State in their 42-38 home win, a game that the Aggies had controlled all afternoon but allowed two touchdowns in the final three minutes to lose. For Kornegay, he was rooting for the upset not only because it was a small team from the WAC beating an SEC team on their home turf -- not to mention the defending national champions, but because it would have wiped out all kinds on money-line parlays.

      “We get a lot of play on money-line parlays with the big favorites in college football and that upset would have wiped out quite a few on the day because Auburn was linked to a lot of them, “ said Kornegay who had Auburn listed as a -2200 favorite with 14/1 odds given on Utah State to win straight up.

      After everything was tallied for the sports books, the day was kind of a wash.

      “It was give and take all weekend, a grind.” said Kornegay. “The handle was great, the crowd was pumped that football was finally back, but overall, we didn’t have any major decisions.“

      Lightning Strikes Down Two Games

      Weather played a factor in two games where action was refunded. Michigan beat Western Michigan 34-10 on Saturday and it looked to be an easy cover for the masses laying 14 ¼-points, but with 1:27 left in the third quarter the game was stopped because of a lightning storm that had moved into the area. Both coaches agreed for the safety of the fans to just call the game final and evacuate the 110,056 fans from the stadium.

      The same story occurred Sunday night in Morgantown where West Virginia beat Marshall 34-13, but the game was halted with 14:35 left in the fourth quarter after four hours of delays. West Virginia was a 23-point favorite and appeared to be on their way to a cover having gone on a 14-0 run when the game was stopped.

      In Nevada sports books, the rule is that a game must be played at least 55 of the schedule 60 minutes for action, therefore making all tickets on these games a refund. Bettors who laid the points with Michigan are sure to be a little upset while those with Western Michigan tickets appear to have a gotten a gift. There are also going to be several unclaimed refunds from bettors just because they don’t know the rule or they saw the score figuring they lost. After 90 days, all those unclaimed funds go to the casino bottom line.

      Another game was almost stopped on Saturday, but each team agreed to weather the storm. Notre Dame was one of the more popular plays of the day in their home game against South Florida. Ticket count ratios were high on the Irish and the only thing keeping the game at minus-10 ½, despite the sports books being long on that side, was respecting the sharp plays made on South Florida at +11. Many of the sports books chose to be on the side of the sharps in this one refusing to go back to +11, despite mounting risk.

      For all the Notre Dame supporters, they almost got a gift wish from Touchdown Jesus as lightning forced two separate delays in the game totaling over three hours. The delays killed all the momentum South Florida had as they waited in the locker room at halftime for over two hours.

      Notre Dame played like a much better team in the second half outscoring the Bulls 20-7 to at least cover the half-time line (-8) for their supporters, but still eventually lost the game 23-20. The real gift from Touchdown Jesus for Notre Dame bettors would have been to have the game cut short to get a refund like the few Western Michigan bettors got.

      Pac-12 Ratings to Drop

      Despite going 8-4 over the weekend, the Pac-12 took a major blow in their conference ratings with their four losses. UCLA lost to Conference-USA’s Houston, Oregon lost to the SEC’s LSU, Colorado lost to the WAC’s Hawaii and the biggest blow of all came when Oregon State lost at home to Sacramento State from the mighty Big Sky. The Beavers will also get a loss to the Big-10 as well this week when they lose at Wisconsin on Saturday.

      Even USC’s 19-17 win as a 24-point home favorite against the Big-10’s Minnesota won’t rate favorably for the conference.

      It’s early in the season, but when those BCS computers start churning out numbers at the end of the year to decide who plays for the big money, a team like Stanford could get the shaft because of their affiliation with the conference and its members poor play against others
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #48
        Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

        09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*100 Detail

        09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8150 Detail

        09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail

        09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail

        Totals 45-*30-*4 60.00% +5900



        NCAA

        FMonday, September 5

        Game Score Status Pick Amount

        Miami - 8:00 PM ET Maryland -3.5 500

        Maryland - Under 45.5 500
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment

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