The Bum's CFB Week # 1 Best Bets

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No. 3 Oregon clashes with No. 4 LSU Saturday

OREGON DUCKS (0-0)
vs. LSU TIGERS (0-0)

Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -1.5, Total: 55.5

Two of the top-five teams in the land square off in Arlington, TX for an enormous opening-week showdown when No. 3 Oregon takes on No. 4 LSU. Both programs have had a tumultuous offseason with legal troubles dominating the headlines. The Tigers are forced to start second-string QB Jarrett Lee on Saturday night with starter Jordan Jefferson suspended indefinitely after being arrested for his role in an Aug. 19 bar brawl. LSU starting WR Russell Shepard is also suspended for an NCAA rules violation.

Oregon has also had its share of newsworthy events, with allegations of improper recruiting methods and star CB Cliff Harris pulled over for driving 118 mph with starting QB Darron Thomas riding as a passenger. Harris, who scored four punt-return TD last year, is suspended for this game, but Thomas will start. On the field, the Ducks bring back arguably the best running back in the land in LaMichael James who led the nation in both rushing yards (1,731) and total touchdowns (24). He is the biggest reason Oregon led all FBS schools in points (47.0 PPG) and yards (531 YPG) last season. Although LSU’s defense, which returns seven starters, is always strong, this team actually had a weaker rush defense (137 YPG) than the Ducks last year (128 YPG). The Tigers are just 5-8 ATS in non-SEC games since 2008. The pick here is OREGON, which is 10-6 ATS in non-conference play over the past four years.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to side with the Ducks when the spread is low.

OREGON is 37-17 ATS (68.5%, +18.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. The average score was OREGON 28.9, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Although Oregon lost a bunch of starters from last year’s 12-1 team, nobody in the country has a better QB-RB duo than Thomas (2,881 pass yds, 30 TD, 9 INT; 486 rush yds, 5 TD) and James. However, wide receiver is a trouble spot without Jeff Maehl and the offensive line could struggle after losing three starters. The defensive line is also a question mark with only one starter returning in Terrell Turner (5.5 TFL), and the front seven will certainly miss monster LB Casey Matthews who is now in the NFL. Although Harris won’t play Saturday, the Ducks remain stacked in the secondary, led by playmaking FS John Boyett (5 INT, 9 PD, 78 tackles).

In addition to running an offense without Jefferson and Shepard, LSU will also be playing its first game under new offensive coordinator Greg Studrawa, last year’s offensive line coach. Steve Kragthorpe, former head coach at Louisville and Tulsa, was originally hired in the OC role, but could only be the school’s QB coach after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Lee has a good deal of experience under center, with 18 TD and 18 INT in his LSU career. He’ll also have the services of ultra-talented WR Reuben Randle (544 rec yds). TB Spencer Ware is expected to get most of the carries with Stevan Ridley now playing in the NFL. Ware rushed 10 times for 102 yards in the season-ending Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M. The Tigers defense will miss departed stars CB Patrick Peterson and MLB Kelvin Sheppard, but DE Sam Montgomery (6 TFL in five games) and WLB Ryan Baker (7 sacks), lead a formidable front seven. The Tigers also boast two elite cornerbacks in Morris Claiborne (5 INT) and Tyrann Mathieu (7 PD).

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Boise State-Georgia clash Saturday night

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (0-0)
vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (0-0)

Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -3.5, Total: 51

The conference may have changed from the WAC to Mountain West, but the same explosive Boise State offense remains. QB Kellen Moore will lead his fifth-ranked Broncos into a Week 1 marquee matchup with No. 19 Georgia at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Saturday night.

Despite being the favorites in what is basically a road game, Boise State has never beaten an SEC school in its program’s history. But the Broncos have never had a quarterback like Moore who is an unbelievable 28-2 as a starter. Not only has he dominated schools within his former conference, but Moore has also led his team to an 11-4 ATS (73%) mark in non-conference games. With Georgia coming off its first losing season since 1996 and losing its top two running backs (Washaun Ealey and Caleb King) in the offseason, the pick here is BOISE STATE to win by at least a touchdown.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Broncos.

Chris Petersen is 39-21 ATS (65.0%, +15.9 Units) in all games as the coach of BOISE STATE. The average score was BOISE STATE 41.4, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Although Moore and six other offensive starters return, the Broncos did lose some key pieces to last year’s 12-1 team, most notably WRs Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for 2,166 receiving yards and 19 TD. Moore gets most of the publicity, and rightly so, with 3,845 passing yards, 35 TD and 6 INT last year, but the Boise State rushing attack is also potent, averaging 200 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in 2010. Leading ground gainer TB Doug Martin (1,260 rush yds, 12 TD) returns for new offensive coordinator Brent Pease, who is not expected to change much in this offense that was directed by Bryan Harsin before he took the job at Texas. The BSU defense is also primed for a big year, led by DEs Shea McClellin (9.5 sacks) and Tyrone Crawford (7 sacks, 13.5 TFL), MLB Byron Hout (4 TFL in 9 games) and FS George Iloka (5 PD).

Georgia also has an excellent quarterback in sophomore Aaron Murray (3,049 pass yds, 24 TD, 8 INT), who has the weapons for another strong season. WR Tavarres King (504 rec yds) replaces departed star wideout A.J. Green at flanker and Orson Charles (422 rec yds) is one of the better tight ends in the nation. The Bulldogs ground game ranked a mediocre 73rd in the nation last year (143 YPG), and no longer has their top two rushers in Washaun Ealey (transfer) and Caleb King (academics). Georgia will lean heavily on highly-touted freshman Isaiah Crowell to carry the load. Another blow to the rushing attack is the loss of LT Trinton Sturdivant who will miss the season with a knee injury. The defense was solid last year (329 YPG, 23rd in nation), but the Bulldogs only had 24 sacks. OLB Justin Houston had 10 of those sacks, but he’s gone. The remaining LBs are highly athletic with USC transfer Jarvis Jones on the strong side and converted safety Alec Ogletree (26 solo tackles) in the middle. The 17th-ranked pass defense (180 YPG) is expected to shine again with all four starters returning, including CB Brandon Boykin (3 INT) and S Bacarri Rambo (3 INT).

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Thursday, September 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Carolina State - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan -20 500
Central Michigan -

New Hampshire - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -10.5 500 Toledo -

Villanova - 7:00 PM ET Temple -7.5 500 Temple -

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET North Texas +13.5 500
Florida International - Over 53.5 500

Western Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Western Carolina +33.5 500
Georgia Tech -

North Carolina Central - 7:30 PM ET North Carolina Central +43.5 500
Rutgers -

Mississippi State - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +30 500
Memphis - Under 50 500

Montana State - 8:00 PM ET Montana State +29.5 500
Utah -

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET UNLV +34.5 500
Wisconsin - Over 56.5 500

Wake Forest - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse -6 500 Syracuse -
Under 49.5 500

Bowling Green - 9:00 PM ET Idaho -5.5 500
Idaho - Over 52.5 500

Western Kentucky - 9:15 PM ET Kentucky -16.5 500
Kentucky - Over 48.5 500

UC - Davis - 10:00 PM ET Arizona State -37.5 500 Arizona State -

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TCU at Baylor

September 1, 2011


TCU has posted double-digit win totals in seven of the last nine seasons and has won 11 games or more in six of those years. Coming off a perfect 13-0 season that was capped by a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, the Horned Frogs will embark on their farewell campaign in the Mountain West Conference when they open 2011 at Baylor on Friday night.

As of Thursday morning, most betting shops were listing Gary Patterson’s team as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can take Baylor to win outright for a plus-175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).

TCU returns just three starters on offense and five on defense. Andy Dalton, a first-round selection of the Cincinnati Bengals who won a school-record 42 games, is one of the eight offensive starters that must be replaced.

That job falls to sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall, who saw limited playing time as a redshirt freshman. He ran for a pair of touchdowns and passed for another, but he has only nine career pass attempts.

Paschall’s job will be made easier by the return of junior RB Ed Wesley, who ran for 1,078 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry last year. Paschall also has one of the MWC’s best WRs in Josh Boyce, who garnered first-team freshman All-American honors by catching 34 balls for 646 yards and six TDs in 2010.

But if TCU is going to go to a third straight BCS bowl game, it will be about the defense that’s been one of the country’s most ferocious for six years running. During this stretch, the Horned Frogs have never given up more than 18.7 points per game in a season. From 2008-2010, they surrendered the following PPG averages: 11.3, 12.8 and 12.0.

TCU has two of the nation’s premier LBs in senior Tank Carder and junior Tanner Brock. Carder was named first-team All American last year when he had six tackles for losses and 3.5 sacks. Brock led the Horned Frogs in tackles with 106 stops on his way to earning third-team All-American honors.

This LB duo will have its hands full with Baylor junior QB Robert Griffin, who is quietly enjoying a dazzling career in Waco. Griffin led the Bears to their first bowl game since 1994 last season, throwing for 3,501 yards with a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is equally effective with his legs, rushing for 635 yards and eight TDs in 2010.

Griffin burst on the scene as a true freshman in ’08, rushing for 843 yards and 13 TDs while passing for 2,091 yards with a 15/3 TD-INT ratio. Thanks to Griffin’s presence, expectations at Baylor were high in ’09, but that optimism went out the window in Week 3 when he tore his ACL.

With Griffin back under center, Art Briles’ team jumped out to a 7-2 start last season, only to drop its last four games including a 38-14 loss to Illinois in the Texas Bowl. Baylor beat only one team with a winning record, capturing a 47-42 home win over a Kansas State squad that finished 7-6.

The Bears return eight starters on offense and five on defense. Therefore, they once again appear to be candidates for high-scoring games galore.

However, Griffin will have to adapt to life without two of his best weapons. RB Jay Finley completed his eligibility by rushing for 1,218 yards and 12 TDs last season. WR Josh Gordon is also gone after leaving the program two weeks ago.

Gordon, who had 42 receptions for 714 yards and seven TDs in 2010, was suspended indefinitely in late July. Baylor does return Griffin’s favorite target, Kendall Wright, who is coming off a 78-catch campaign. Wright had 952 receiving yards and seven TD receptions.

Baylor saw the ‘over’ finish 2010 on a 7-2 run. The Bears gave up 30.5 PPG and allowed 42 points or more in five of their last seven regular-season games.

TCU was one of those teams in Week 3, cruising to a 45-10 win as a 21-point home ‘chalk.’ The Horned Frogs raced out to a 35-3 lead by intermission and were never threatened. Dalton completed 21-of-23 passes for 267 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. Wesley rushed for 165 yards and a pair of scores on 19 carries.

TCU’s defense wouldn’t let Griffin get loose, limiting him to 21 rushing yards on 14 attempts. Griffin connected on 16-of-28 throws for 164 yards and a TD with no interceptions.

Since the Southwestern Conference disbanded in 1996, these old-school rivals have met only three times. TCU has won all three games both straight up and against the spread with the ‘under’ cashing in each instance.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Briles is trying to fix Baylor’s defense with new coordinator Phil Bennett, the former SMU head coach who was the DC at Pitt the last three years.

--Griffin has a 41/11 TD/INT ratio and 23 rushing TDs in his career.

--Since 2005, TCU has a 66-11 straight-up record. The Horned Frogs have won 12 of 14 head-to-head meetings against BCS schools during that stretch.

--During Briles’ three seasons at Baylor, the Bears are only 2-6 ATS as home underdogs.

--TCU is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite from 2008-2010.

--Tulsa WR Damaris Johnson has been suspended indefinitely after being charged with embezzlement on Wednesday. Johnson, the NCAA’s career leader in all-purpose yardage, has basically ‘pulled a Peter Warrick’ for buying loads of clothing merchandise at an extremely reduced price from a girlfriend at a local store. The Golden Hurricane was a 21 ½-point underdog for its Week 1 game at Oklahoma, but the number has now been adjusted to 25.

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Ohio State Buckeyes Open Against Akron Zips

The first Saturday of the 2011 college football season is finally approaching. ESPN will start their day with coverage of the Akron Zips heading to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes who are ranked No. 22 on the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, courtesy of Kenny White.

Kickoff from The Horseshoe is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. (ET).

Ohio State will be seeing its first action on the field since experiencing an offseason of turmoil that sent both quarterback Terrelle Pryor and elite head coach Jim Tressel packing. Their absence is just part of the effects OSU will feel for Saturday’s game as four other players are also suspended for the first five weeks of the year.

That includes the Buckeyes' top running back Dan Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey.

With that, all of the bad news for Ohio State has been covered as the Buckeyes are a whopping 34-point betting favorite over Akron. The total is set at 47½.

Joe Bauserman has seemingly come out on top of the QB competition in Columbus and will likely start this weekend. However, new head coach Luke Fickell appears to be heading in the direction of a two-quarterback system, adding freshman Braxton Miller to the mix.

Miller should be the signal caller of the future for the Buckeyes and, depending on how this 2011 season plays out, may also become the QB of the present.

Last season ended with a Sugar Bowl victory over Arkansas to give the Buckeyes a 12-1 mark for the season. Their defense ranked No. 5 in the nation in points allowed (14.3 per game) and that ‘D’ will look to keep up their consistent dominance again in 2011.

As for the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference, it should not take much to improve upon their campaign last year. They did not win a game until their last opportunity on the 2010 schedule when they beat Buffalo, 22-14.

The team finished with rankings in the hundreds in many categories, including passing yards, rushing yards, points for and points allowed. When a team does not score and cannot stop the other team from scoring, it is the oldest trick in the book for losing.

Junior College transfer Clayton Moore joins the Zips as the new starting QB. He replaces Patrick Nicely who threw 13 picks and just 10 touchdowns a year ago.

Head coach Rob Ianello is working hard to turn around this program, putting together a good staff and doing his part for recruiting. However, recruiting will not help Akron this week at Ohio State.

Ohio State is 7-0 against the spread in their last seven September games, and the ‘over’ is 4-0 in their last four in the same month. Akron is 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.

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Alabama Crimson Tide Clash With Kent State

The Alabama Crimson Tide kick off the 2011 college football season tied for first in the inaugural edition of the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, and will host the Kent State Golden Flashes on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Game time is scheduled for 12:20 p.m. (ET).

The Crimson Tide have eight players ranked No. 1 at their positions according to Kenny White, and 17 in the top 10, and the Don Best odds screen has them as huge 38-point favorites with the total set at 46.

Alabama earned 119.5 points to split the top spot in the Oddsmaker Poll with Oklahoma, and sits at No. 2 in the country according to the Associated Press and the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll behind the top-ranked Sooners. The Tide have won nine straight season openers and are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games.

Junior running back Trent Richardson finally gets to take the reins from former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram as the focal point of the offense after rushing for 700 yards and six touchdowns a year ago when Alabama finished 10-3. Many college football experts consider Richardson to be a Heisman candidate this season, and he will be carrying the load with the team breaking in a new starting quarterback between AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims.

Both McCarron and Sims are expected to see playing time against Kent State, and each will have a difficult time replacing former starter Greg McElroy.

But they will be able to lean on Richardson offensively early on along with arguably the best defense in the nation with 10 returning starters.

Tide head coach Nick Saban will be welcoming his alma mater out of the Mid-American Conference to town, although his team will be without senior wide receiver Darius Hanks (456 yards and three touchdowns in 2010) for the first two games due to an NCAA violation. Hanks is expected to help fill the void left by Julio Jones when he returns.

The Golden Flashes are coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and have gone 0-21 all-time against ranked opponents. They are led by junior quarterback Spencer Keith, who threw for 2,212 yards with eight touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season.

Kent State dropped four of its last five games both straight up and ATS to close out last year with the ‘under’ going 3-1 in the past four. The team went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road in 2010 with the lone victory coming at Bowling Green last October 23, 30-6.

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Big 10 Report - Week 1

September 1, 2011

Thursday, Sept. 1

Wisconsin (-35) vs. UNLV (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The Badgers are the popular favorite to win the new Leaders division in the Big Ten and they get a Thursday night showcase to kick off the season. All eyes will be on new quarterback Russell Wilson as he makes his first start as a Badger after transferring from NC State. UW ranked 21st nationally in total offense last year and 5th in scoring offense and they could be just as powerful this season with Wilson and the RB tandem of Ball and White (combined 2,048 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns in ‘10). UNLV lost its starting QB and four top tacklers from last year’s 2-11 squad. The Rebels are just 2-24 in road openers and don’t expect to be a big threat to Wisconsin here. Wisconsin won at UNLV last season, 41-21, and has won 15 straight Camp Randall openers by an average of 18 points per game. Notes: UW redshirt freshman Kyle French will be pressed into field-goal duties on Thursday as regular kicker Philip Welch hasn't healed from a quadriceps injury.

Friday, Sept. 2

Michigan State (-35.5) vs. Youngstown State (7:30 p.m. ET)

The 2010 co-Big Ten Champion Spartans return to action on Friday night against Youngstown State. QB Kirk Cousins is surrounded by a strong receiving corps and good depth at RB, but there are uncertainties on the offensive line (three of five starters need to be replaced) and on defense (four of the top five defenders departed) and that could present a bit of a learning curve early in the season. Youngstown State finished a disappointing 3-8 last year, including a 30-point loss to fellow Big Ten foe Penn State. Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is no stranger to the Penguins, spending five years on the coaching staff (1986-90). MSU should have no problem dispatching of the FCS foe. Notes: Michigan State still has a handful of questions along the offensive line, most notable left tackle and center, and will rotate a number of guys in on Friday night.

Saturday, Sept. 3

Northwestern (+3) vs. Boston College (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Northwestern travels to Boston College as a small underdog in one of the more appealing week one matchups, QB Dan Persa’s status remains in question as he is still recovering from a achilles injury suffered last season. Before his injury, Persa led the Wildcats to a 7-3 mark including a last second win over Iowa in 2010 (NU lost its final three games without him). Sophomore Kain Colter will get the start if Persa can’t go. Boston College has a similar problem with its star player. Senior running back and preseason ACC Player of the Year Montel Harris will miss 3-4 weeks after undergoing knee surgery. BC's offense looks a lot less scary with Harris on the sidelines, considering how suspect its passing game was last season. Defensively, the Eagles ranked 10th in total defense and 1st against the run last season. With arguably the best offensive weapons for both teams sidelined, you can expect a low-scoring game with few offensive fireworks. Boston College covered five of its last 6 games last season but is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 as a home favorite. Northwestern is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road ‘dog but just 4-13 ATS in September.

Ohio State (-34) vs. Akron (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Luke Fickell will make his coaching debut with the Buckeyes after a tumultuous offseason. OSU had to say goodbye to longtime head coach Jim Tressel and accomplished QB Terrelle Pryor and will now start the 2011 season with a brand new slate. Senior Joe Bauserman and true freshman Braxton Miller will split time at QB on Saturday and they’ll do it without three offensive starters (RB Herron, WR Posey, and OT Adams are all suspended). The new coach and quarterback situation bears monitoring in what would otherwise be a routine opener for the Buckeyes. Six of OSU’s top eight defenders are gone from a year ago yet this unit still figures to be strong. Akron’s offense provided few fireworks last season (15.6 points per game) on its way to a 1-11 record. The Zips have lost 17 straight true road openers by an average of 29 points per game. Thirty-four points is a lot to lay in week one, especially with an OSU squad that has so many questions. However it’s worth noting that the Buckeyes were a perfect 6-0 ATS last season as a favorite of 20 points or more.


Penn State (-38) vs. Indiana State (12:00 p.m. ET)

Joe Paterno is not openly saying who his starting quarterback will be. Our best guess is that sophomore Rob Bolden and junior Matt McGloin will split time against Indiana State before Paterno officially decides. PSU hosts Alabama on September 10th so Paterno would like to figure out his QB situation before then. Defensively there aren’t any major questions, particularly in the back seven, which boasts a ton of talent and strong depth. The Nittany Lions need this unit to step up after allowing 23.7 points per game in 2010 (up from 12.2 PPG in 2009). FCS Indiana State has just eight wins dating back to 2004. The Sycamores have lost four straight road games against BCS conference foes dating back to 2006, losing by an average of 31.5 points per game. Penn State has won nine straight home openers by an average of 29 points per game.

Iowa (-39) vs. Tennessee Tech (12:00 p.m. ET)

Iowa shouldn’t be overlooked this season despite some key personnel losses from 2010. Sophomore running back Marcus Coker, who will run behind a seasoned offensive line, should have a breakout year. Junior quarterback James Vandenberg has some starting experience, but must prove himself again. Tennessee Tech is a good opponent for the Hawkeyes to “warm-up” against before next week’s annual Cy-Hawk game against Iowa State. The Hawkeyes barely escaped with a 17-16 win at Kinnick Stadium against FCS Northern Iowa two seasons ago and you can bet that head coach Kirk Ferentz has reminded his team of that many times this week. Tennessee Tech returns 19 starters from last year’s 5-6 squad. The Golden Eagles lost at Arkansas and at TCU in 2010 by a combined score of 106-10.

Purdue (-18) vs. Middle Tennessee State (12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue recently received news that starting QB Rob Henry tore his ACL and will miss the entire 2011 season. With 2010 starting QB Robert Marve still recovering from last year’s knee injury so junior QB Caleb TerBush will make his starting debut against Middle Tennessee State on Saturday. TerBush has played in only one career game but head coach Danny Hope is confident in the 6-foot-6 QB’s athleticism. Some good news for the Boilers: RB Ralph Bolden has returned strong from two knee surgeries and should provide an offensive spark for Purdue. This is no “gimme” game for the Boilers. Middle Tennessee State has been to two straight Bowl games and has defeated Maryland (2x), and has had Mississippi State, Kentucky, Louisville, and Minnesota on the brink of defeat over the past three seasons.

Minnesota (+22.5) at USC (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Jerry Kill Era begins in Minnesota. His week one depth chart is filled with true freshmen and redshirt freshmen, so the playbook won’t be too extensive on Saturday. Former wide receiver MarQueis Gray makes his first start at quarterback for the Gophers, and a trip to the coliseum to play USC is a tough first assignment. Minnesota led 14-13 at home against the Trojans last season before surrendering 19 unanswered points. USC returns a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, including Heisman hopeful QB Matt Barkley. The Trojans have won 13 straight home openers by an average of 24 points per game.

Michigan (-14) vs. Western Michigan (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

There could be a lot of offensive fireworks in this one. Michigan returns all-everything QB Denard Robinson (2,570 passing yards, 1,702 rushing yards, 32 total touchdowns), albeit in a new offensive system. Western Michigan returns QB Alex Carder (3,334 passing yards, 30 touchdowns) and a bevy of talented receivers. Michigan struggled mightily on defense a year ago and Western Michigan could light up this secondary. Western Michigan has lost 16 straight road openers by an average of 24 points per game (all against BCS schools) and are 0-5 against Michigan (lost 7-31 in most recent meeting in 2009).

Nebraska (-35) vs. Chattanooga (3:30 p.m. ET)

The Huskers should get a blowout against Chattanooga in their first official game as a member of the Big Ten. Nebraska’s biggest strength is its defense, where it boasts three potential All-Americans on all three levels. DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard lead this unit that might be the nation's best. Offensively, QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead (1,696 rushing yards combined with 19 touchdowns in 2010) should be able to run all over Chattanooga. Nebraska has won five straight season openers (all at home) by an average of 38 points per game (49-11). FCS Chattanooga has lost four straight road games against BCS schools dating back to 2008 by an average margin of 44.2 points per game (last at Auburn by 38 last season).

Illinois (-21) vs. Arkansas State (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Illinois has lost four straight season openers – all against Missouri in St. Louis – but should be able to notch a win here against Arkansas State (The Illini have won 13 straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game). Nathan Scheelhaase is back under center after a very successful freshman campaign in which he threw for 17 touchdowns and ran for 5 more. Illinois’ offense shouldn’t have any problems putting points on the board; it’s the defense that has to replace its top four playmakers from a year ago. Despite the 4-8 overall record in 2010, Arkansas State played well against Auburn, Louisville, and Indiana (2-1 ATS) last year and shouldn’t be overlooked by Illinois.

Indiana (-6.5) vs. Ball State (7:00 PM ET)

Here’s another new face as Kevin Wilson makes his head coaching debut for the Hoosiers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Wilson has yet to name a starting quarterback between sophomores Dusty Kiel and Edward Wright-Baker. It’s expected that both will see playing time on Saturday night. Ball State is no slouch. Seventeen starters return from last year’s 4-8 squad that got a lot of big-game experience with two road games at Iowa and at Purdue. The top passer, rusher, receiver, and three tacklers return to form a much improved Cardinals squad.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, September 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Youngstown State - 7:30 PM ET Michigan State -34 500

Michigan State - Under 62.5 500

Texas Christian - 8:00 PM ET Baylor +3.5 500

Baylor - Over 52.5 500

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Boise State Broncos Battle Georgia In Atlanta

None of the opening matchups in college football have bigger implications than this one, especially for one team. At 8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN Saturday night, the Boise State Broncos will take on the Georgia Bulldogs at the Georgia Dome, ostensibly a neutral site.

The teams are ranked sixth and 16th respectively in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll.

Simply put, national title hopes go out the window if the Broncos lose on Saturday.

This is a tale of two completely different entities in almost every sense. Boise State went from one conference that gets zero respect in the WAC to one that gets just slightly more, the Mountain West. They have an experienced quarterback on Heisman watch who could break NCAA records in senior Kellen Moore and they use a no-huddle, shotgun offense which should play well Saturday on the fast track surface at the dome.

The Broncos also have no player on their roster that was a 4-star recruit or higher.

BSU is the poster child for the little guy attempting to stick it to the BCS. College football is an emotional game and emotions should be flying high in Atlanta for this team fighting for itself and everyone across the world that clings to hope for a playoff system.

As for Georgia, they come from the best conference in college football. The Southeastern Conference has won the last five BCS Championships. The Bulldogs have 26, 4-star recruits or higher in their 2-deep depth chart alone.

Since they are a part of the SEC, they could afford to lose this game and still theoretically be in the chase for a national title if they win the Southeastern Conference. That is a tall task, but it would still be a possibility.

The Bulldogs have a very talented QB in Aaron Murray but he is still just a sophomore. What Georgia wants to do is pound the rock right down the throat of the defense, running the multi-I offense.

News just came out today that three players are out for Boise State in this game due to NCAA eligibility issues. Wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn (formerly Geraldo Hiwat), safety Cedric Febis and defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe will be staying at home.

Running back Caleb King was ruled academically ineligible for Georgia and entered the NFL supplemental draft, eventually signed by the Minnesota Vikings. Safety Bacarri Rambo, the best player on the Georgia defense, is facing a possible suspension according to the Don Best injury report.

Chris Petersen has become one of the top football coaches in the NCAA, chalking up double-digit wins in each of his five seasons at the helm for the Broncos. He will have a new offensive coordinator, Brent Pease, but the offense should be business as usual since Pease had been the wide receivers coach.

BSU is currently a 3-point favorite and the total is set at 51 on the Don Best odds screen.

In their last 21 games on the road and on neutral fields, Boise State is an impressive 17-4 against the spread. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four contests as an underdog.

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Oregon Ducks, LSU Tigers College Football Preview

The Saturday night ‘instant classic’ between the SEC LSU Tigers and Pac-12 Oregon Ducks has seen a big shift in the pointspread the last few days. This is about as big as it gets during opening week with both ranked in the top-5 nationally.

This is technically a neutral site game from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, but LSU will have a sizable home crowd advantage with the much closer 465-mile distance from its Baton Rouge campus. ABC will have the kickoff at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

The Don Best odds screen has LSU as 3 ½-point underdogs with a betting total of 54 ½-points. When we did our initial college football odds preview for Week 1 last Sunday, it was a pick 'em affair.

That pick ’em spread was following the news that LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson had been suspended indefinitely after being involved in a brawl. Starting receiver Russell Shepard was already ineligible due to an NCAA violation.

Quarterback Jarrett Lee has taken over for Jefferson and is a big question mark despite being a fifth-year senior. There was some thought this spring that he wouldn’t even be the backup, potentially falling behind junior college transfer Zach Mettenberger.

Lee has made just one start since being thrown to the wolves as a redshirt freshman in 2008. He had 16 picks that year. He did play well in relief stints last season, but the passing game was considered a weakness coming in (12th in the SEC last year), and especially with Sheppard out.

The Don Best Oddsmaker Poll has been ahead of the curve when it comes to downgrading the Tigers. They were ranked 11th in the initial ranking despite being fourth in the AP Poll. Oregon is third in the AP as well as Don Best.

LSU went 11-2 straight up last year, but had luck on its side in several wins, with the against the spread mark just 6-7. Coach Les Miles can’t count on any miracles wins, especially against a team of Oregon’s pedigree.

The Tigers need to run the ball early to take the pressure of Lee. Stevan Ridley (1,147 rushing yards) left for the NFL, but there is plenty of talent remaining, starting with Spencer Ware. The O-line should have success against the rebuilt Oregon front-seven, even with guard Josh Dworaczyk (knee) out. At least Oregon won’t have to worry about Lee running, one of Jefferson’s strengths.

Oregon saw its perfect record end last year in the 22-19 BCS Championship loss to Auburn. That was as a 1-point favorite and the team was 1-3 against the spread in its final four games after starting 6-2-1 ATS.

The offense also bogged down some those last four games (29.8 PPG) after 54.7 PPG in the first nine. The Ducks still led the nation in scoring overall (47 PPG), but the ‘under’ was 3-1 to end the season after the ‘over’ stared 7-2.

The spread offense should again be lethal with quarterback Darron Thomas (2,881 yards passing, 486 rushing) and running back LaMichael James (1,731 yards rushing) leading the way. The former had a run-in with police, but escaped suspension.

Star cornerback Cliff Harris wasn’t so lucky and is suspended indefinitely. His loss will also be felt on punt returns. Middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is also suspended.

LSU’s defense was top-12 in the nation last year in both points (18.2) and yards (307.2) per game allowed. Cornerback Patrick Peterson was a big loss and both starting defensive tackles are gone. Stopping Oregon’s attack is a huge challenge, even for a defense projected to be very good again.

This is the first meeting between the schools since 1977. LSU can win outright if it controls the line of scrimmage offensively and the strong-armed Lee plays smart and avoids any turnovers. Those who go against the spread move could have the last laugh in this one.

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Florida State Begins Year With Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

A promising season for the Florida State Seminoles kicks off on Saturday at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, where the No. 4 team in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll will take on the Sun Belt's Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks.

Kickoff from Tallahassee is slated for 3:30 p.m. (ET), and there will be live television coverage on ESPNU. Florida State is favored by 28½ points, 29 at some locales, with the college football odds showing 55½ for the total.

The 'Noles have a lot going for them this year. Head coach Jimbo Fisher returns a rather veteran squad, chock-full of some big names. Defensively, cornerback Greg Reid already has three TDs in his career, two as a punt returner and one as a defensive back, and many think he has the ability to be one of the best secondary players in the nation this year.

The keys to the offensive engine have been handed to EJ Manuel under center. Manuel is yet another in the long line of highly recruited Florida State quarterbacks, and over the last two years, he has cut his teeth as the backup behind current Minnesota Vikings first-round draft pick Christian Ponder.

However, thanks to some injuries to Ponder, Manuel isn't exactly green. The junior has already thrown nearly 200 passes in his career, completing a healthy 67.3 percent for 1,678 yards and six scores against 10 picks. He also has another 366 yards and three TDs on the ground with his legs.

If there is a problem for Florida State, it is at wide receiver where Willie Haulstead will likely be out of the lineup with a concussion. There will be a lot of pressure on returning receiver Bert Reed, who had 58 catches for 614 yards and a pair of scores in 2010.

Louisiana-Monroe comes into this season as one of the more highly-touted teams in the Sun Belt. Sophomore quarterback Kolton Browning really came on strong as the season progressed last year, throwing for 2,552 yards and 18 scores while picking up another 385 yards and four TDs on the ground.

Last season, the Warhawks didn't score more than 21 points in a game in their first five tries. However, over the course of their last seven games of the season, they averaged a healthier 25.6 PPG and scored at least 28 points four times.

The question about ULM is whether it is going to be able to stop the Florida State offense. This team allowed 31 to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 52 to the Auburn Tigers and 51 to the LSU Tigers in comparable games last season. The Warhawks' offense isn't going to be able to shoot it out with the garnet and gold on the road.

The Seminoles have only been beaten one time by any of the current Sun Belt teams, and you have to go all the way back to 1947 to find that defeat. This is the first ever meeting of these two teams, though.

The Warhawks are just 17-37 ATS in their last 54 games played outside of the Sun Belt, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as double digit road underdogs.

Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last five played out of conference, but only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.

Tropical Depression 13 could wreak some havoc on this one, but forecasters are expecting there to be relatively nice weather in Tallahassee on Saturday. Temperatures should be approaching 95 degrees by kickoff, and there will be a stiff breeze coming out of the southeast as high as 15 mph, and potentially even higher if TD 13 turns a bit east by Saturday morning.

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Alabama Crimson Tide Clash With Kent State

The Alabama Crimson Tide kick off the 2011 college football season tied for first in the inaugural edition of the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, and will host the Kent State Golden Flashes on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Game time is scheduled for 12:20 p.m. (ET).

The Crimson Tide have eight players ranked No. 1 at their positions according to Kenny White, and 17 in the top 10, and the Don Best odds screen has them as huge 38-point favorites with the total set at 46.

Alabama earned 119.5 points to split the top spot in the Oddsmaker Poll with Oklahoma, and sits at No. 2 in the country according to the Associated Press and the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll behind the top-ranked Sooners. The Tide have won nine straight season openers and are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games.

Junior running back Trent Richardson finally gets to take the reins from former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram as the focal point of the offense after rushing for 700 yards and six touchdowns a year ago when Alabama finished 10-3. Many college football experts consider Richardson to be a Heisman candidate this season, and he will be carrying the load with the team breaking in a new starting quarterback between AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims.

Both McCarron and Sims are expected to see playing time against Kent State, and each will have a difficult time replacing former starter Greg McElroy.

But they will be able to lean on Richardson offensively early on along with arguably the best defense in the nation with 10 returning starters.

Tide head coach Nick Saban will be welcoming his alma mater out of the Mid-American Conference to town, although his team will be without senior wide receiver Darius Hanks (456 yards and three touchdowns in 2010) for the first two games due to an NCAA violation. Hanks is expected to help fill the void left by Julio Jones when he returns.

The Golden Flashes are coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and have gone 0-21 all-time against ranked opponents. They are led by junior quarterback Spencer Keith, who threw for 2,212 yards with eight touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season.

Kent State dropped four of its last five games both straight up and ATS to close out last year with the ‘under’ going 3-1 in the past four. The team went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road in 2010 with the lone victory coming at Bowling Green last October 23, 30-6.

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Ohio State Buckeyes Open Against Akron Zips

The first Saturday of the 2011 college football season is finally approaching. ESPN will start their day with coverage of the Akron Zips heading to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes who are ranked No. 22 on the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, courtesy of Kenny White.

Kickoff from The Horseshoe is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. (ET).

Ohio State will be seeing its first action on the field since experiencing an offseason of turmoil that sent both quarterback Terrelle Pryor and elite head coach Jim Tressel packing. Their absence is just part of the effects OSU will feel for Saturday’s game as four other players are also suspended for the first five weeks of the year.

That includes the Buckeyes' top running back Dan Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey.

With that, all of the bad news for Ohio State has been covered as the Buckeyes are a whopping 34-point betting favorite over Akron. The total is set at 47½.

Joe Bauserman has seemingly come out on top of the QB competition in Columbus and will likely start this weekend. However, new head coach Luke Fickell appears to be heading in the direction of a two-quarterback system, adding freshman Braxton Miller to the mix.

Miller should be the signal caller of the future for the Buckeyes and, depending on how this 2011 season plays out, may also become the QB of the present.

Last season ended with a Sugar Bowl victory over Arkansas to give the Buckeyes a 12-1 mark for the season. Their defense ranked No. 5 in the nation in points allowed (14.3 per game) and that ‘D’ will look to keep up their consistent dominance again in 2011.

As for the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference, it should not take much to improve upon their campaign last year. They did not win a game until their last opportunity on the 2010 schedule when they beat Buffalo, 22-14.

The team finished with rankings in the hundreds in many categories, including passing yards, rushing yards, points for and points allowed. When a team does not score and cannot stop the other team from scoring, it is the oldest trick in the book for losing.

Junior College transfer Clayton Moore joins the Zips as the new starting QB. He replaces Patrick Nicely who threw 13 picks and just 10 touchdowns a year ago.

Head coach Rob Ianello is working hard to turn around this program, putting together a good staff and doing his part for recruiting. However, recruiting will not help Akron this week at Ohio State.

Ohio State is 7-0 against the spread in their last seven September games, and the ‘over’ is 4-0 in their last four in the same month. Akron is 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.

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Primetime Tilts

September 2, 2011


The marquee games in Week 1 will take place in Saturday’s prime-time slot and feature a pair of SEC teams in crucial non-conference contests. LSU will venture to Cowboys Stadium to square off against Oregon, while Georgia will meet Boise State at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

As of Friday morning, most betting shops were listing Oregon as a four-point favorite with the total in the 54-55 range. Sports books had LSU available on the money line for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

The Ducks were originally favored by one before an unfortunate incident occurred in Baton Rouge. That would be a bar fight that resulted in criminal charges for four players, including starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson and DT Josh Downs, both of whom have been suspended indefinitely.

But the biggest absence for LSU will be stud WR Russell Shepard, who will not play due to a compliance issue. The loss of Shepard might be a wash, however, because Oregon All-American CB Cliff Harris is also suspended for Week 1.

Shepard had 33 receptions for 254 yards and one touchdown in 2010. Meanwhile, Harris had six interceptions and broke up 17 passes.

Should bettors be overly concerned about backing LSU with Jefferson unavailable? That’s debatable. Jefferson has won many big games and gives the Tigers a scrambling dynamic, as evidenced by 450 rushing yards and seven touchdowns last season. But his passing accuracy has always been an issue and his 7/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year isn’t impressive.

The job falls to senior Jarrett Lee, who has a chance to script an entertaining redemption story. Let’s go back to 2008 when LSU was the defending national champion. As a redshirt freshman, Lee was forced into action far too early when incumbent QB Ryan Perrilloux was suspended (sound familiar?).

In home games against Georgia and Alabama, LSU played well enough to win in every facet except one – quarterback play. In both games, Lee threw critical interceptions that were returned for TDs at the most inopportune times. In fact, he threw seven – seven! – pick-6’s before the season was finished.

Lee could’ve cut and run. He easily could’ve bolted Baton Rouge for another school, avoiding the criticism to start anew. That would’ve been the easy thing to do.

But Lee chose another course. He stuck it out. For the most part as a sophomore and junior, he was Jefferson’s back-up although Les Miles did give him some quality playing time. For instance, it was Lee that orchestrated the Tigers’ comeback win at Florida last year.

With six seconds remaining, Lee threw a perfectly-lofted ball to the corner of the end zone that Terrance Toliver hauled in for the game-winning TD. Lee completed 9-of-11 passes for 124 yards and two TDs in the win over the Gators.

If Lee can play well and lead LSU to win over Oregon, last year’s national runner-up, the job could be his for good. If he can’t come through, there is another option. That’s right, LSU is three-deep at QB. After sitting out last year, Georgia transfer Zach Mettenberger is waiting for his chance. Mettenberger was one of the nation’s top prep QBs in the 2009 class.

Oregon ripped through the 2010 regular season unbeaten, only to see its national-title hopes dashed when Auburn kicked a game-winning field goal in the final seconds of a 22-19 win in the BCS Championship Game.

The Ducks return six starters on offense, including QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. Thomas threw for 2,881 yards with a 30/9 TD-INT ratio last year. He also rushed for 486 yards and five TDs.

James is a leading Heisman candidate following a banner 2010 campaign. He rushed for 1,731 yards and 21 TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

The jobs of Thomas and James will be made more difficult by the loss of four of five starting offensive linemen. This has to concern Chip Kelly, who saw his o-line get smacked around by Auburn’s physical defensive front back in January.

LSU doesn’t have a Nick Fairley on its d-line, but its front is big and physical with several NFL prospects like DE Sam Montgomery and DT Anthony Johnson. The Tigers are also strong at linebacker and in the secondary. Watch out for senior LB Ryan Baker, who had 87 tackles, seven sacks and four tackles for losses last season.

When Auburn’s d-line started to wreak havoc on Oregon’s offense, Kelly got more creative with his play-calling. He got Thomas out of the pocket (and away from Fairley) where he could operate more efficiently. The coaching matchup between Kelly and LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis will be interesting to watch.

With Jefferson out, LSU is left with seven returning starters on offense. Meanwhile, Harris’s absence gives Oregon just four returning starters on defense. The biggest loss for LSU is reliable RB Stevan Ridley, who had 1,147 yards and 15 rushing TDs as a senior. The player the Ducks will be missing most is LB Casey Matthews, who led the team in tackles last year.

During Miles’ six previous seasons at LSU, the team has gone 6-8 against the spread as an underdog. Oregon is 4-4 ATS as a single-digit ‘chalk’ on Kelly’s watch, but we should point out a 2-0 spread mark in a pair of such spots last year.

ABC will provide television coverage from Arlington at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Mark Richt enters his 11th year at Georgia on the hot seat. The Dawgs are coming off the worst season of his tenure, going 6-7 and losing to UCF in the Liberty Bowl. UGA’s lowest previous win total on Richt’s watch was eight in 2001 and 2009.

Despite last year’s disappointment, expectations are high in Athens thanks to the presence of an outstanding young QB and a recruiting haul that was considered one of the best in the country. Aaron Murray, a third-year sophomore, threw for more than 3,000 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio.

Murray has lost his favorite target, first-round draft choice A.J. Green, but he might have the SEC’s best tight end at his disposal in Orson Charles. Taverres King and Marlon Brown are experienced WRs that could be poised for breakout seasons.

Boise State also has one of the nation’s best signal callers in Kellen Moore, who could break Colt McCoy’s all-time NCAA record for wins before the year is over. Moore completed 71.3 percent of his passes in 2010 for 3,845 yards with an incredible 35/6 TD-INT ratio.

However, Moore no longer has stud WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, who combined for 142 receptions for more than 2,100 yards and 19 TDs last year. Tyler Shoemaker (32 catches, 582 yards and 5 TDs) will become the go-to guy along with veteran TE Kyle Efaw, who had five TD grabs last season.

BSU does return its workhorse RB in Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,260 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.3 YPC in 2010. On the other hand, UGA lost its two leading rushers from last year in Washaun Ealey (transferred) and Caleb King (ineligible). This means that true freshman Isaiah Crowell will get immediate playing time.

Crowell is a highly-hyped prospect that’s expected to become UGA’s next great RB. He’ll split time with Richard Samuel, who has been limited at practice the last two weeks due to a quad injury.

Most books are listing Boise St. as a 3 ½-point favorite vs. Georgia. The total is 51 at most spots and UGA is plus-140 to win outright (risk $100 to win $140).

Chris Petersen announced Friday that BSU will hold out three key players due to potential eligibility issues. All three players are from The Netherlands. Geraldo Boldewijn was expected to start at WR, while CB Cedric Febis and DT Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe are key contributors on defense.

These schools met in Athens six years ago when Dan Hawkins was still running the show for the Broncos. On that Week 1 afternoon, the Dawgs blasted BSU by a 48-13 count as seven-point home favorites.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

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Tech Trends - Week 1

Saturday, Sept. 3

NORTHWESTERN at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani 1-6 vs. line at home LY (now 1-7 last 8 at Alumni Stadium) and 0-4 as Chestnut Hill chalk. Cats only 4-9 vs. line overall themselves LY but Fitzgerald was 10-3 vs. number as dog away from Evanston the previous three seasons. Tech edge-Northwestern, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at AUBURN...Note that Chizik just 2-6 vs. spread his last 8 vs. non-SEC foes and only 1-5 last six chances laying DD points. Interestingly, Utags are 6-1 getting 20 points or more the past two seasons for HC Gary Andersen, and they're 9-4 since '09 against spread as visitor. Walking it back a bit further, USU now 17-7 vs. number last 24 as visitor. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.

AKRON at OHIO STATE...First game of the post-Tressel era in Columbus. Will the jaded Ohio State fans still be happy at beating this undermanned MAC opponent? Tressel was awfully good vs. number (9-2-1 LY, 55-24 last 79 on board) so let's see what Luke Fickell can do. Bucks had also covered their last 9 vs. non-conference foes under Tressel. Zips only 1-3 vs. spread getting 20 or more under Ianello LY. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at MISSOURI...Miami-O returns to Mizzou where it was buried 51-13 LY. RedHawks rallied late for Haywood LY by winning last 6 SU (5-1 vs. line), but now it's Treadwell debut. Tend to dismiss most of the pre-2010 Miami numbers because so wretched especially 2008-09. Pinkel was 5-2 laying DD in 2010 after only 6-11 mark in role the previous three years. Tigers covered 4 of 6 at home LY after dropping 10 of 16 vs. line the prior three seasons in Columbia. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, based on extended subpar Mizzou home trends.

KENT STATE at ALABAMA...Nick Saban against his alma mater, will he take it easy? Tide was 4-0 vs. line as non-conference host LY, laying heavy numbers each time, and Bama 8-1 vs. spread last 9 vs. non-SEC. Bama 27-14 last 41 on board as well. Hazell debut for Flashes, who are 1-6 vs. line last 7 away from Dix Stadium vs. non-MAC foes. Tech edge-Bama (unless Saban in a merciful mood), based on team trends.

UCLA at HOUSTON...Cougs in revenge mode after Bruins KO'd both of their QBs in LY's 31-13 UCLA win at Rose Bowl. Which might have been turnaround for several cheap shots taken by Kim Helton's UH against UCLA back in 1998, a game in which Freddie Mitchell suffered a severe broken leg. (Helton was mad because he thought Bob Toledo ran up the score in 1997's 66-10 win.) Neuheisel only 1-5 vs. line away LY and 6-10 in role since arriving at UCLA in 2008. Neuheisel also 7-16 last 23 as dog, although he is 8-2 vs. number against non-conference opposition since 2008. Tend to throw out most UH spread numbers LY when Cougs just 1-4-1 vs. line at home and 3-8-1 overall. But Sumlin still just 7-13-1 his last 21 as chalk (1-4-1 LY). Tech edge-slight to UCLA, based on extended team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Do we dismiss the wretchedness of the Rodriguez spread numbers at Michigan now that he is gone? His regime was cursed at Ann Arbor so we tend to dismiss it, but for the record the Wolverines dropped their last 9 vs. the number last year and were 10-27 vs. the line for Rodriguez the past three years, and 5-15 as chalk for Rich. Meanwhile, Brady Hoke was 6-2 as chalk LY for SDSU (although he dropped all four laying points in '09). Hoke is 21-14 vs. line the last three years with Ball State and Aztecs. Broncs no covers last 4 (0-3-1) vs. non-MAC foes away from Waldo Stadium, and just 10-16-1 vs. spread away since '08. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on Hoke factor.

MINNESOTA at SOUTHERN CAL...Trojans just 9-17 vs. line since '09 and have been just 3-9 laying DD the past two years (1-4 for Lane Kiffin LY). Kiffin 3-7 as DD chalk since '09 (UT & SC), and Troy 0-4 vs. points outside of Pac LY (Kiffin 2-7 non-league since '09). Jerry Kill debut at Minnesota, note he was 9-4 vs. line LY for NIU Huskies before leaving prior to bowl game. Tech edge-Minnesota, based on extended SC/Kiffin negatives.

SOUTH FLORIDA at NOTRE DAME...Skip Holtz carries Lou's torch back to South Bend, where dad was gently moved aside after '96. Big stuff for Skip and Lou, and Skip was 4-1 as dog LY with Bulls, now 27-10 as short at ECU and USF since 2005. Brian Kelly covered just 1 of 7 at home in ND debut LY (an odd 1-3-3 vs. line) and Irish have covered just 9 of last 34 at home since early in the 2006 campaign (dating to the early Weis years). Tech edge-South Florida, based on team trends.

BYU at OLE MISS...Cougs closed with a rush last season with covers in last five and seven of last eight games, although most of those (save 1-point loss at Utah) were vs. less-than-stellar opposition. Bronco Mendenhall still 9-5 vs. spread last 14 away from Provo. Houston Nutt 4-10 vs. line last 14 reg.-season games and only 2-6 vs. mark last 8 at Oxford. Nutt only 2-5 as dog since '09. Tech edge-BYU, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD...Shaw debut on Farm. Peninsula series resumes after a one-year hiatus in 2010, Tree had won and covered previous three and is 7-1 SU and vs. line last 8 in series. SJSU just 7-23 vs. number last 30 on board and 3-11 vs. line last 14 away from home. Tech edge-Stanford, based on series trends.

COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Mike Locksley is 0-8 SU and vs. number in September the past two years. Lobos only 4-8 vs. line in Albuquerque since '09 as well. Rams just 4-9 vs. number on road the past two years and just 1-5 as road chalk since '05, but have covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Tech edge-CSU, based on Lobo/Locksley negatives.

BUFFALO at PITTSBURGH...Buffalo a wretched 2-10 vs. points LY (1-10 vs. FBS foes) and dropped its last 7 SU and vs. line in Quinn debut campaign. Bulls now 6-17 vs. spread last 23 on board dating to late '08. Todd Graham Pitt debut, he covered 9 of last 10 at Tulsa LY and was 3-2 vs. mark as DD chalk host, note however he was just 19-19 overall as chalk at Tulsa. Stache was only 8-10 as home chalk from 2007-10 at Pitt. Tech edge-slight to Pitt, based on Buffalo negatives.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. EAST CAROLINA (at Charlotte)...Now we just need North Carolina vs. Western Carolina to complete a Carolina parlay this weekend! ECU was defenseless LY and dropped 5 of its last 6 vs. the number, and only 2-5 last 7 as dog for Ruffin M. after Skip had posted solid dog marks prior. Spurrier has won and covered openers in each of the last three years but he's only 3-5 last 8 as chalk away from home. Spurrier just 6-6 last 12 as DD chalk. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on Spurrier opener mark.

FRESNO STATE vs. CAL (at Candlestick Park, San Francisco)...Bears begin their season away from Strawberry Canyon, all home games either at Candlestick or AT&T Park across the Bay in 2011. Since mid 2004, Jeff Tedford is a subpar 34-44 vs. number. Meanwhile, Bulldogs' Pat Hill 8-4 vs. spread on reg. season road since '09 and 5-1 vs. spread the last two regular seasons against non-WAC foes. Tech edge-Fresno, based on team trends.

ARMY at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Dave Doeren debut at NIU. Physical West Point was 4-0 as visiting dog last year and has covered opener the past two years for Rich Ellerson, both at EMU. Black Knights also 5-0 as visiting dog LY. NIU no covers last 4 as chalk vs. non-conference foes and was 2-12 laying DDs from 2005-09 before 6-2 mark in role LY. Tech edge-Army, based on team trends.

RICE at TEXAS...Rice had failed to cover 4 in a row vs. Texas (from '05-'08) before getting the cover at Reliant Stadium LY. Owls haven't beaten Horns SU since '94 (Kenny Hatfield) when both still played in the old SWC. Mack just 3-12 vs. line last 15 on board since late '09, 3-10 vs. spread last 13 at Austin, 3-8 laying 19 or more same span. Owls just 6-14 as DD visiting dog since '05, however (0-2 LY). Tech edge-Rice, based on recent Texas negatives.

INDIANA vs. BALL STATE (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)...New coaches both ways (Wilson IU, Lembo Ball State)! Since 2002, IU is 7-4 vs. line against MAC opposition, and Hoosiers 4-2 vs. number against non-conference foes since '09. Cards, however, are 19-9 vs. line away from Muncie since '07 (4-2 LY), and are 5-2 vs. points against Big Ten since '06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

TULSA at OKLAHOMA...Blankenship Tulsa debut. Tulsa closed in a hurry LY when covering 9 of its last 10, including its last 5 away from home. Tulsa 6-3 vs. spot last 9 against non-CUSA foes on road and 7-3 as DD dog since 2003. Stoops just 5-5 laying DD at Norman since '99, though 19-11 overall in role since '07 (14-8 laying DD at Norman that span). Sooners also 9-3 last 12 vs. line vs. non-conference foes at Norman. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on team trends.

OHIO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Eighteen of DeWayne Walker's 20 SU losses since '09 have been by 10 points or more. Ags 0-5 vs. line since '08 vs. non-WAC foes at Las Cruces. Walker just 3-10 vs. line at Cruces since '09. Solich 13-8 vs. line away from Athens since '08, but only 4-6 as road chalk since '07. Tech edge-Solich, based on NMSU negatives.

BOISE STATE vs. GEORGIA (at Georia Dome, Atlanta)...Boise was 6-1 vs. line away from blue carpet LY and is now 21-8 vs. spread its last 29 away from Boise. Rematch of '05 opener at Athens won by Ga 48-13. Broncos have also last 7 away from home vs. non-WAC foes. Richt was 0-4 as dog LY after 9-4 mark in role the previous five years. Dawgs also 1-6 vs. spread away from Athens LY. Tech edge-Boise, based on recent trends.

OREGON vs. LSU (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Les Miles only 2-5 vs. line last 7 outside of SEC. Les also just 16-30 vs. number last 46 on board since early '07. Ducks 2-4 vs. spread last 6 vs. non-conference foes away from Eugene, but 31-21 overall vs. line since '07. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on Les Miles' extended spread marks.

LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS...LT nothing special vs. line in Dykes' debut LY (5-7 vs. spread), 1-1 as DD road dog. Bulldogs also 0-6 vs. number last 6 as non-WAC visitor. Fedora 13-6-1 vs. line last 20 on board for USM. Tech edge-USM, based on team trends.

COLORADO at HAWAII...Jon Embree debut for Buffs, we remember his dad as a long-striding Denver Broncos receiver in 1969. CU was 0-5 vs. spread as true visitor LY and 1-4 vs. line as non-conf. visitor since '07. Leahey covered all 7 reg. season home games LY and is 22-12 vs. spread last 34 on board for Greg McMackin since mid '08. Tech edge-Hawaii, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at PURDUE...Last year was a mess for MTSU, just 4-9 vs. line and 2-5 away from Murfreesboro, also 0-5 vs. non-Belt. Many distractions in 2010, however, and note Rick Stockstill was 21-14 vs. line in the three previous seasons. Purdue just 2-7 as Ross-Ade chalk since Danny Hope took over in 2009, and 1-4-1 vs. spread last 6 vs. non-Big Ten foes. Riveters 4-11 as Ross-Ade DD chalk since '05. Tech edge-MTSU, based on Purdue negatives.

ARKANSAS STATE at ILLINOIS...Ron Zook was 5-3 as chalk LY but was highly unreliable in role previously (just 7-12 between '07-09). Zook 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board hosting non-Big Ten foes. Hugh “Deep" Freeze HC debut for Ark State which was 3-1 as DD road dog for Roberts LY. Red Wolves had covered 7 of first 9 LY before dropping last 3 vs. number in 2010. Tech edge-slight to Ark State, based on extended Zook negatives.

UL-MONROE at FLORIDA STATE...Jimbo fared okay laying DD numbers last season, covering 3 of 5 (2-1 laying 20 or more) after Bowden had failed repeatedly to cover heavy lumber in his later years with Noles (just 1-7 laying DD from '07-09). Jimbo also 4-1 vs. line against non-ACC last year. ULM was 1-2 vs. line on road vs. non-Belt in Todd Berry debut LY (all of those vs. SEC bowl teams) and 2-3 as DD dog. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent Jimbo numbers.

TROY at CLEMSON...Troy finally got rolling late LY with wins and covers in its last 3 games after a somewhat disappointing earlier portion of 2010. Blakeney still 10-5 vs. line last 15 as dog. Dabo struggling lately at home, just 2-5-1 last 8 vs. spread at Death Valley. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA...Howard really labored late LY, dropping last 5 and 9 of last 10 vs. number. FAU just 4-19 vs. points last 23 vs. non-Belt foes in reg.-season play, and Owls also just 5-12 against spread last 17 as visitor. Muschamp Gator debut, note that Fla. still 3-1 as DD Swamp chalk LY despite post-Tebow downturn (1-1 laying 20 or more). Tech edge-Florida, based on recent Schnellenberger negatives.