The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA !

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[StarDust Bum]

Lincecum, Beltran expected to start for Giants

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (60-44, +11.5 Units)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (65-38, +11.8 Units)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -115, Philadelphia +105, Total: 7.5

The Giants and Phillies finish their three-game set with Thursday night’s rubber match. Tim Lincecum is expected to take the mound for San Francisco after having his start pushed back two days due to battling the flu. The struggling Giants offense (12 runs in past six games) should get a nice boost after acquiring Carlos Beltran from the Mets. He is expected to make his debut with San Francisco on Thursday night.

Beltran is batting .289 with 15 homers, 66 RBI and an NL-best 30 doubles. His presence can only help the Giants whose 3.6 runs per game makes them the third-worst offense in baseball. With Lincecum well-rested and reportedly done with his flu bug, the pick here is SAN FRANCISCO.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend supporting the Giants.

Play On - Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (46-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Some other betting trends favoring the Giants include their phenomenal success under the lights, with a 44-24 record (+17.9 Units) in night games. They are also 43-24 (+11.3 Units) as the favored team, and 28-26 (+2.1 Units) on the road. Philadelphia has the best overall record in the majors and is very tough to beat at home (38-17, +11.4 Units). But the Phils have not been very profitable as the underdog, with an even 6-6 record (+0.7 Units).

Lincecum (8-8, 2.90 ERA) has been on quite a roll in his past seven starts. Despite his 3-3 record, he has posted a 1.84 ERA, with 52 K in 44 IP over this span. He has been a little wild though, with 11 walks in 19 innings over his past three starts. Lincecum hasn’t won any of his three regular-season starts in Philadelphia, but he has only allowed two earned runs in his past two outings (13 innings) at Citizens Bank Park. The two-time Cy Young Award winner faced the Phillies twice in last year’s NLCS, allowing three runs in seven innings in both starts and then pitching in relief in the pennant-clincher.

Kyle Kendrick (5-4, 3.45 ERA) has been decent as a spot starter this year, posting a 3.96 ERA, but the Phillies are just 5-4 in his nine starts. His strikeout rate is pretty terrible though, with a meager 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He has only faced the Giants twice in his career, once as a starter in 2008 (6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) and once as a reliever in 2009 when he tossed two scoreless innings against the Giants.

[StarDust Bum]

Pirates-Braves conclude marathon series

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (53-49, +15.2 Units)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (61-44, +7.5 Units)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -160, Pittsburgh +150, Total: 7.5

Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Pittsburgh Total Runs: 3.5 – Over (EVEN), Under (-120)
Atlanta Total Runs: 4 – Over (-120), Under (EVEN)
Team to Score First: Pittsburgh (-105), Atlanta (-115)
Will There be a 1st-Inning Run? Yes +115, No -145

Pittsburgh tries to salvage a series split in Thursday’s finale of a four-game set in Atlanta. This has been a well-pitched series so far, with both teams scoring just seven total runs apiece over 38 innings in the first three contests. Pittsburgh won 3-1 on Monday, but Atlanta took the past two games, both in extra innings, including a 19-inning marathon on Tuesday.

This game figures to provide much more offense with two struggling pitchers on the mound in Pittsburgh’s Kevin Correia and Braves hurler Derek Lowe. Although Lowe is a perfect 10-0 in 10 career starts versus the Pirates, the Bucs have pushed the Braves to the limit this series. With Correia’s sparkling success on the road this year, and injuries to three key Atlanta offensive players (C Brian McCann, 3B Chipper Jones and OF Jordan Schafer), the pick is PITTSBURGH with favorable 3-to-2 odds.

The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends favoring the Pirates.

KEVIN CORREIA is 10-2 (83.3%, +11.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record). The average score was CORREIA 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ATLANTA) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. (25-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +26 units. Rating = 3*).

Like most opponents of the Pirates recently, Atlanta has had the upper hand in head-to-head contests. The Braves are 11-5 in the past 16 home meetings, but the Pirates have been a strong road team this year, going 27-24 (+13.1 Units) and outscoring opponents by an average of 4.2 to 3.9.

Correia (11-8, 4.38 ERA) has certainly struggled in his past three starts, allowing 15 runs and 22 hits in 14.1 innings. In his last outing, St. Louis lit him up for seven runs (2 HR) in 4.2 innings. However, Correia has been masterful on the road this year, going 9-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has only made two lifetime starts at Turner Field, but they were both pretty good, with a combined three runs and 11 strikeouts in 9.2 innings.

Lowe (6-8, 4.49 ERA) has had a July to forget. In four starts this month, he has a 5.96 ERA, .315 opponents’ BA and a pathetic eight strikeouts in 22.2 innings. Lowe has also pitched poorly at home this year, posting a 5.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in eight starts at Turner Field. However, pitching against Pittsburgh has been quite a boost to his career with a perfect 10-0 record in 10 starts versus the Bucs. He has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponents’ BA against the Pirates, including 2.00 ERA in three wins against them last season.

Atlanta will be without both catcher Brian McCann (oblique) and OF Jordan Schafer (finger) who were recently placed on the Disabled List. Braves 3B Chipper Jones (quadriceps) is limited to pinch-hitting duties. Pittsburgh has also put two offensive players on the DL in the past two days in OF Alex Presley (thumb) and SS Chase d’Arnaud (finger).

[StarDust Bum]

Twins aim for 3rd straight win over Texas

MINNESOTA TWINS (49-55, +2.6 Units)

at TEXAS RANGERS (59-46, +1.1 Units)


First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -150, Minnesota +140, Total: 9

Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Minnesota Total Runs: 4 – Over (-130), Under (EVEN)
Texas Total Runs: 5 – Over (-125), Under (-105)
Team to Score First: Minnesota (-105), Texas (-115)
Will There be a 1st-Inning Run? Yes -120, No -110

The Twins try to win their third straight game over the Rangers when the teams wrap up a four-game series in Arlington on Thursday. After Texas exploded with a 20-6 blowout on Monday, the Twins’ bats have come alive with 17 runs in the past two games.

Minnesota is now 18-9 (+12.8 Units) versus Texas over the past three seasons with five straight meetings of scoring at least six runs off Rangers pitching. With the way the Twins have been hitting in the 100-degree heat combined with the recent success of starting pitcher Scott Baker, the pick here is for underdog MINNESOTA to prevail.

The FoxSheets provide two trends backing the Twins, including a rare six-star trend.

MINNESOTA is 15-3 (+18.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 6*).

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (MINNESOTA) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (37-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%, +29 units. Rating = 4*).

The Twins have been a pretty good bet as an underdog this year, going 32-37 (+7.1 Units). They have also been profitable versus left-handed starters (17-16, +4.5 Units). Texas has been a strong home team (34-21, 62%, +2.1 Units), but has actually been a losing bet as a favorite (-0.8 Units, 45-32).

Minnesota sends red-hot Scott Baker (8-5, 2.88 ERA) to the mound on Thursday. He has not allowed an earned run in four of his past five starts, and is 6-1 in his past seven outings. During this span, he carries a 1.50 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, with 43 strikeouts and eight walks (5.4 K-to-BB ratio). He hasn’t lost to Texas since 2008, going 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA, 31 K and 8 BB in five starts against the Rangers.

Matt Harrison (8-7, 3.05 ERA) has had a superb July, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 24 strikeouts and only two walks in 28 innings of work. The left-hander also pitched pretty well at Minnesota on June 12, allowing just one earned run in six innings. The only other time he’s faced the Twins was a brutal 2008 outing when he allowed eight runs in five innings.