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**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:18 AM

MLB Odds: NY Yankees battle Boston Red Sox

The ’over’ is 5-0-1 in AJ Burnett’s last six starts vs. AL East opponents.
The top two teams in the American League East standings are meeting up for the third time this season in the middle game of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. First pitch scheduled for 4:05 (PT) on ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball.

Boston won all three meetings in the Bronx from May 13-15, giving the club a comfortable 5-1 season series lead heading into Tuesday contest that was still pending. The Red Sox also enter on having won 16 of their past 22 contests.

The Red Sox offense has plenty of firepower and many in the lineup are performing at a high level, especially designated hitter David Ortiz and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Ortiz is hitting .325 with 13 home runs and 30 RBIs, while Gonzalez sits atop the major leagues with 50 RBIs.

Both players played a pivotal role in leading the club to 23 runs in its three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics, a team that came into the series leading the majors in earned-run-average.

Veteran Tim Wakefield (2-1, 4.40 ERA) is set to make his 15th appearance (sixth start) for Boston Tuesday and has won his last two decisions. The knuckleballer has allowed seven runs and 16 hits over his last 19 2/3 innings of work.

Wakefield has faced the Bronx Bombers plenty of times, producing a losing 11-17 mark and 4.90 ERA in 56 outings (34 starts). He has made just two relief appearances at new Yankee Stadium, allowing two hits in 5 1/3 frames. The right-hander will want to pitch carefully to New York second baseman Robinson Cano, who is hitting .304 against him with four homers and 12 RBIs in 46 career at-bats.

New York has owned sole possession or shared first place in the division for 44 of the first 66 days this season. One of the keys to its success this season has been jumping on opponents early, outscoring foes 85-48 over the first two frames.

The Yankees pitching staff led the club to a 6-3 mark over its recently completed road trip, registering a 6-1 record and 2.12 ERA over the final seven games.

New York starting pitcher A.J. Burnett (6-3, 3.86 ERA) turned in one of those great performances on the road, capturing a 4-2 win versus Oakland, giving up just two runs and three hits over seven innings. The power right-hander has been impressive in seven home starts during the 2011 season, tallying a 5-1 mark and 3.63 ERA, issuing 15 walks in 44 2/3 frames.

Burnett will be matching up with the Red Sox for the 16th time tonight, bringing in a 5-3 record and 4.79 ERA, including a winless 0-1 mark and 7.63 ERA in three outings last year.

The Yankees have proven victorious just three times in Burnett’s last 16 tries versus division opponents, while the ‘over’ is 5-0-1 his last six attempts in that particular situation. The ‘over’ has cashed the last four times the 34-year-old has faced Boston.

Weather forecasts a rather warm evening the Bronx with game-time highs in the mid-80s, while the wind will be coming out of the southwest at 5-10 mph (out to left). The ‘over’ is 5-2 the last two years at Yankee Stadium with that particular wind direction.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:36 AM

Wednesday Tips

June 7, 2011

Five of the six division leaders in baseball own a lead of less than three games heading into Wednesday's action. The Marlins look to get back on track against the Braves in a fight for second place in the NL East, while the Tigers try to stay hot in the sweltering heat of Texas against the AL West-leading Rangers. We'll start in the Bronx with the Bombers attempting turn around their luck against the team sitting right along side them in the AL East.

Red Sox at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

Boston has regained control of this series against New York with 13 victories in the last 18 meetings since May 2010, while the Sox are 6-1 in this season's series. The Yankees wrapped up their West Coast swing with a 6-1 mark following consecutive losses at Seattle, as the Bombers fell short in their first home game back with Tuesday's 6-4 setback. The Sox turn to an aging arm making his first appearance at the new Yankee Stadium.

Tim Wakefield (2-1, 4.40 ERA) makes only his second road start of the season, as the knuckleballer received a no-decision in his last trip to the mound in a home setback to the White Sox. The veteran allowed four earned runs and seven hits in six innings as Boston lost for the second time this season when Wakefield starts as a substantial favorite. Wakefield gave up five earned runs in five innings in his previous matchup against the Yankees last October, the first loss for Boston against New York in four starts since 2008.

The Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (6-3, 3.86 ERA), who picked up his first road victory last Thursday at Oakland. Burnett has dominated at home with a 5-1 record, while being listed as a $1.80 'chalk' at Yankee Stadium five times in seven starts. New York is 2-3 in Burnett's five starts as a home favorite of less than $1.45 since the beginning of the 2010 season, including a 4-3 victory over the Twins in early April. Since joining the Yanks in 2009, Burnett has faced the Sox only once at home, while losing five of six games at Fenway Park in this span.

Braves at Marlins - 7:05 PM EST

Florida felt like it was on its way to challenging Philadelphia for the top spot in the NL East after pulling off a three-game sweep at San Francisco on May 26. However, the Fish are sinking fast by dropping nine of their last 11 games, while going 4-13 the previous 17 games at Sun Life Stadium. The Marlins look to get back in the win column with one of their colder pitchers toeing the rubber on Wednesday.

Ricky Nolasco (4-1, 3.99 ERA) was denied a shot at a victory in his last outing against Milwaukee as Ryan Braun's pinch-hit homer in the ninth gave the Brewers a 6-5 win. Nolasco received a no-decision, but the Marlins fell to 1-5 in his last six starts, including an 0-4 mark the previous four home starts. It's basically a coin-toss proposition when Nolasco takes the mound against the Braves with the Marlins splitting his last 10 starts, including a 2-2 mark at home since 2008.

The Braves send out Derek Lowe (3-4, 4.07 ERA), who hasn't a won a start since taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning of a 5-0 rout at Philadelphia on May 6. Atlanta owns a 6-1 record in Lowe's last seven trips to the hill, including a 6-3 road win over the Mets in his previous outing. Lowe's numbers have blown up in night contests (5.20 ERA, 4-2 to the 'over') compared to when he pitches during the day (2.95 ERA, 5-1 to the 'under'). Since coming to Atlanta in 2009, Lowe has failed to deliver a quality start in six outings against the Marlins, while the Braves are 4-2 in those six meetings.

Tigers at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

Two of the hottest teams in the American League continue their series in Arlington with a pair of young hurlers taking the mound. Detroit is riding a 7-1 run to creep back towards the top of the AL Central, while Texas has won eight of 10 to create some space ahead of the feisty Mariners in the AL West. Alexi Ogando looks to stay unbeaten for the Rangers after winning each of his first six decisions this season.

Ogando (6-0, 2.20 ERA) is putting up a terrific numbers overall, but it's surprising that most of his success has come in the hitter's park of Ameriquest Field. The 27-year old is 4-0 in six home starts, while owning a 2.06 ERA in Arlington. Primarily used as a reliever last season, Ogando is going deep into his starts by pitching past into the seventh inning in three of his last four outings. Ogando has helped 'under' backers with a 5-1 mark at home, while the Rangers are averaging a shade below four runs/game in these starts.

Phil Coke (1-5, 3.81 ERA) returns to the Tigers' rotation after suffering a right foot bone bruise in a May 23 win over the Rays. Since scattering three hits in seven scoreless innings at Oakland on April 14, Coke is winless in his last seven starts, while Detroit is 2-5 in this stretch. The 'over' is 4-2 in Coke's six road starts in 2011, as the Rangers are 8-1 this season at home against left-handed starting pitchers.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:39 AM

Hot lines: Wednesday's best MLB bets

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (-135, 8)

Remember when the Orioles jumped out of the gate to win six of their first seven and everybody was wondering if this might finally be the year the O’s make a little headway? That, of course, was short lived but Baltimore has been a lot better at home anyway.

The club is hovering around .500 playing in front of its hometown fans and does have some bright spots in the lineup, including rookie lefty Zach Britton.

Britton has been spanked around in his last two outings after he gave up five runs on seven hits over five innings against the Blue Jays.

“I don’t think I did a good job out there,” Britton told reporters. “Falling behind too many hitters. Watch on video and the hits I gave up were all balls out over the plate [and] up. That’s what a good-hitting team does — they hit those pitches.”

Britton made the A’s look like a pretty good hitting team in his start before that, too, but the kid has the stuff to bounce back.

Pick: Orioles

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-140, 9)

If the Chicago Cubs are going to get their season around, they’re going to need Ryan Dempster. While the Cubs have struggled terribly over the last few years, he has been the lone starter that they’ve been able to count on.

Not so much this year.

Dempster is working on a fat 6.32 ERA and was hammered for six runs, including a pair of dingers over five innings in a 6-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The truth is Carlos Zambrano had it just about right when he said that the Cubs were playing like a Triple-A team and there’s not much that Dempster, or anyone else, can do about it right now.

Exhibit Z: Tuesday's 8-2 loss to Cincy.

Pick: Reds

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:41 AM

Bookie: The three keys to setting MLB lines

There is no quick-fix way to setting Major League Baseball odds. Recipes don’t exist to turn delicacies into microwavable masterpieces in the kitchen any more than they do in bookmaking without sacrificing authenticity, creativity, and substance.

Whether it’s computer algorithms, power rankings, or gut feel as the foundation for the process, the end result is a number derived from a perfect balance of art and science. Handicappers and linesmakers tailor their prices to accurately reflect the elements they value most and when assessing the American past time.

Here are three key components that factor into all decision making.

PITCHING

The old baseball axiom is that good pitching beats good hitting. We follow the same principle in the bookmaking industry when we’re building a baseball line from scratch. As much as 70 percent of the opening price is reflected by the starting pitcher (even higher for the truly elite).

Sure, strength of their opposition’s lineup is included in the price but keep in mind no single bat getting scratched has moved a line 60-70 cents because he just doesn’t impact the game on every pitch. Every linesmaker will differ on how much he values a certain hurler but there is no bigger factor in building a line across any sport than the value of a the starting pitcher in baseball.

Food for thought: Always look for a team with a depleted bullpen because unless you anticipate a starter to throw a complete game every time he toes the rubber, relief pitching will play a factor. I equate a depleted bullpen to a missing left tackle or cover corner in football; it probably won’t be factored into the line but can play a huge role in the game’s outcome and give the gambler and edge.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

There is no bigger advantage to being a home team in sports than having the chance to bat last and prevent your opponent from having a chance to answer. But unlike the NBA and NFL, every home field does not measure up the same way and every nuance and feature of a stadium gives home teams an edge.

Ballparks like Coors Field, Wrigley and Yankee Stadium - just to name a few - force us to adjust our numbers accordingly. Essentially a moneyline is created assuming the game is played on a neutral field but unlike football where three to four points is a generally accepted value for home field under all circumstances, baseball lines can remain static or move up to 25 cents depending on where the game will be played.

Food for thought: Since teams play their divisional rivals 18 times, repetition breeds familiarity so closely examine home road splits before reacting to an opening number. Remember as we approach interleague play certain teams may never have played a game in the opposition’s unique ballpark and that can give you up to a dime’s worth of added value based on personnel.

RECENT PERFORMANCE

I’m not sure if there’s been a bigger naysayer to the Indians early season success than me but I can at least feel validated by the team’s recent struggles. Over a 162 game season, momentum plays a huge part in betting baseball and as a linesmaker it’s important for me to monitor all ebbs and flows.

The public notices these things as well and they’re quick to jump on a win streak or fade a losing streak whenever they occur. As a result, I may need to inflate or deflate a price by between 10 to 20 cents in order to stir interest among the value seeking professionals offsetting a deluge of square wagering.

Unlike adding points in buckets or football, manipulating moneylines can be a tricky business because to the novice there’s no difference in laying -125 or -135 unlike football where I can move from 3 to 3.5 and at least stem the tides temporarily.

Food for thought: There’s nothing wrong with riding a winning streak or fading a losing streak but realize after a few games, the price will not reflect reality. Will we experience a market correction with Indians lines this week? Of course but it’s important to remember the Indians weren’t as good as their torrid start nor are they as futile as their latest four-game skid and 3-7 record over the last 10.

There is a decreased emphasis on the importance of a bookmaker’s ability to set a strong opening line from scratch because of certain books’ intent on being first to the market. The real difficulty exists when we as bookmakers trust our numbers but are afraid to hang a price different from the going market rate because of creating middling/arbitrage opportunities.

There are times I find myself asking, “Can I make the Dodgers -110 if betCRIS and Pinnacle are both opening them at even?”

The sharpest bookmakers will still shade lines on the open in anticipation of market movement when given the chance.

Although we all differ on our valuation of which factors impact a baseball line the most and by exactly how much, debating which drivers need to be factored into the equation is universal.

Sterling Ross works on the other side of the betting window at a popular Las Vegas sportsbook.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:43 AM

Five pitchers who aren't as good as you think they are

Wins and losses count more than anything when you place a wager but they don’t always provide the true measure of a starting pitcher.

It is becoming more accepted in baseball circles that a starter can't be judged solely on his record, witness the Seattle Mariners' Felix Hernandez winning the American League Cy Young Award last season with a 13-12 mark. The voters rewarded him for leading the league with a 2.27 earned run average.

Advanced metrics called defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) have been developed in recent years and they show a pitcher's effectiveness on plays that do not involve fielders--home runs, walks, hit batters and strikeouts. The logic behind the DIPS is that they reveal a pitcher's true ability because he has almost no control over what happens once the batter puts the ball in play.

Using Baseball Prospectus' SIERA (Skills Interactive Earned Run Average) and Fangraphs' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), let's take a look at five starting pitchers who have likely been pitching over their head in the first third of the major-league season:

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (+4.07 units)

Jurrjens is 7-2 with an outstanding 1.75 ERA in 10 starts but his SIERA is 4.08 and his xFIP is 3.45. In a lot of ways, Jurrjens really has nowhere to go but down because it would be almost impossible to keep up this pace all season, even for a pitcher who brought a fine 3.52 career ERA into this season.

An indicator that Jurrjens will have a hard time continuing to dominate is that he is averaging just 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings. That is down from his career rate of 6.3 and below the major-league average of 7.0.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays (+2.86 units)

Hellickson was the American League Pitcher of the Month and Rookie of the Month for May and is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 11 starts. However, DIPS says he is ready to take a dip with a 4.66 SIERA and a 4.32 xFIP.

The biggest reason why Hellickson figures to have some struggles ahead is because his command has been suspect. He is walking 3.5 batters and striking out 6.3 per nine innings, leading to a lukewarm 1.79 strikeout/walk ratio.

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (+2.82 units)

Beckett has had a nice bounce-back season after a rough 2010 as he is 4-2 and leads the AL with a 2.01 through 12 starts. While Beckett can reasonably be expected to stay among the better pitchers in the game, his SIERA is 3.49 and he has a 3.66 xFIP.

Much of Beckett's good start has been because he is giving up just 5.9 hits per nine innings. That rate is all but unsustainable, considering that Hernandez led the AL in that category last season with a 7.0 mark.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (+3.26 units)

Lohse has made a strong comeback after being rendered ineffective the previous two season s because of a forearm injury. Through 12 starts, he is 7-2 with a 2.41 ERA, yet he has a 4.07 SIERA and a 3.50 xFIP.

Two red flags, though, are Lohse's 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings, which shows he isn't dominating hitters, and his 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, which indicates he has been lucky on fly balls. Just 3.2 percent of the flies hit off Lohse so far this season have left the park, less than half the major-league average of 7.8.

Tyler Chatwood, Los Angeles Angels (+2.17 units)

Called up after just two starts at the Class AAA level, the 21-year-old rookie is 3-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 11 starts. However, the advanced numbers say Chatwood has had plenty of luck on his side as he has a 5.75 SIERA and a 5.01 xFIP.

A closer look beyond his record and ERA also shows how fortunate Chatwood has been. He has more walks (34) than strikeouts (29) and has given barely less than one hit an inning (64 in 64 1/3).

This is not to say any of these five pitchers are going to fall off a cliff. All have talent and are pitching for teams with winning records. However, the advanced metrics are a good indicator that these five would make good plays against if the matchups and odds are right.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 01:48 AM

Wednesday, June 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 12:05 PM ET Minnesota +143 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 12:35 PM ET Cincinnati -139 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Washington - 3:45 PM ET San Francisco -183 500
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500

Colorado - 6:35 PM ET Colorado -109 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

**Dat Boi E** · 06-08-2011, 02:27 AM

good luck, Bum!

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:04 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

June 8, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 0-11 since May 25, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 9-0-4 OU since June 29, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 0-9 since June 10, 2010 when A.J. Burnett starts after throwing more than 100 pitches on the road for a net profit of $1412 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Orioles are 0-13 (-4.2 rpg) since 2005 in the last game of a home series when they are off a shutout win that did not go into extra innings.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Angels are 0-6 since July 27, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $934 when playing against.

The Mets are 0-7 since August 04, 2010 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $760 when playing against.

The White Sox are 7-0 since April 25, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $700.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:06 PM

Run Line & ML Standings

June 8, 2011

It’s easy enough to locate the MLB standings every day. Just open up any sports page, or click into any sports website worth its salt, and the standings are easy to find.
Wagerers value won-loss records, too, but there’s a different measuring device most “players” want to be abreast of as well. Money line and run line standings provide an extra barometer for handicappers to consult as they make their daily selections. Shorter-term calculations are going to provide more illuminating as the season progresses, however, so we are providing both full season and numbers over the past ten days vs. the money line and run line.

Following records are through games of June 7.

MONEY LINE STANDINGS

AL WEST

Texas +267
Seattle +188
LA Angels -551
Oakland -1216

AL WEST SINCE MAY 28...

Texas +441
Seattle +18
LA Angels -526
Oakland -538

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland +1338
Detroit +452
Chicago White Sox -304
Kansas City -554
Minnesota -1136

AL CENTRAL SINCE MAY 28...

Detroit +696
Cleveland -244
Minnesota -332
Chicago White Sox -358
Kansas City -770

AL EAST

Toronto +269
NY Yankees +20
Baltimore -93
Tampa Bay -106
Boston -434

AL EAST SINCE MAY 28...

NY Yankees +322
Toronto +165
Boston -118
Tampa Bay -162
Baltimore -211

NL WEST

Arizona +818
San Francisco +528
San Diego -348
LA Dodgers -605
Colorado -1374

NL WEST SINCE MAY 28...

San Diego +604
LA Dodgers +260
San Francisco +134
Arizona +96
Colorado -370

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis +728
Pittsburgh +691
Milwaukee +490
Cincinnati -322
Houston -1051
Chicago Cubs -1429

NL CENTRAL SINCE MAY 28...

Milwaukee +364
Pittsburgh +296
St. Louis +139
Cincinnati -35
Houston -106
Chicago Cubs -954

NL EAST

Florida +273
Philadelphia +246
NY Mets +34
Washington +24
Atlanta -155

NL EAST SINCE MAY 28...

NY Mets +242
Washington +17
Atlanta -13
Philadelphia -443
Florida -626

RUN LINE STANDINGS

AL WEST

Texas +841
Seattle -166
LA Angels -295
Oakland -614

AL WEST SINCE MAY 28...

Texas +379
Seattle -99
Oakland -446
LA Angels -632

AL CENTRAL

Detroit +809
Cleveland +591
Chicago White Sox -260
Minnesota -265
Kansas City -526

AL CENTRAL SINCE MAY 28...

Minnesota +835
Detroit +409
Chicago White Sox +360
Kansas City -431
Cleveland -763

AL EAST

Toronto +748
NY Yankees +234
Boston -290
Tampa Bay -784
Baltimore -1182

AL EAST SINCE MAY 28...

NY Yankees +494
Toronto +169
Baltimore +115
Boston -206
Tampa Bay -489

NL WEST

Arizona +244
San Diego -461
Colorado -504
LA Dodgers -711
San Francisco -1158

NL WEST SINCE MAY 28...

San Diego +805
LA Dodgers +590
Arizona +171
San Francisco -396
Colorado -440

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati +876
St. Louis +682
Pittsburgh +241
Milwaukee -786
Houston -1086
Chicago Cubs -1451

NL CENTRAL SINCE MAY 28...

Pittsburgh +587
Cincinnati +339
Milwaukee +12
St. Louis -424
Houston -500
Chicago Cubs -770

NL EAST

NY Mets +337
Florida +141
Washington +10
Philadelphia -158
Atlanta -336

NL EAST SINCE MAY 28...

Washington +207
NY Mets +77
Florida -209
Philadelphia -589
Atlanta -642

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:08 PM

Florida looks to end 6-game losing streak vs. Atlanta

ATLANTA BRAVES (33-28)

at FLORIDA MARLINS (31-28)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida -115, Atlanta +105, Total: 7.5

After wasting an unexpected pitching gem Tuesday night, the Marlins will try to snap a six-game losing streak when they host Atlanta on Wednesday.

After suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Brewers, Florida turned to 21-year-old Brad Hand against the Braves on Tuesday. The lefthander allowed just an Alex Gonzalez solo home run and a walk in six innings of one-run, one-hit ball, but Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson shut down the Florida bats in a 1-0 Atlanta win.

The Hand outing was an exception during this recent losing streak. Florida has allowed 54 runs in its past nine games, with its pitching staff posting a 5.91 ERA. Right-hander Ricky Nolasco (4-1, 3.99 ERA) will try build on Hand’s performance, but he’s been maddeningly inconsistent again this season. After a gem in San Francisco on May 24, he’s struggled desperately in his past two starts, allowing 12 runs (all earned) in 11 innings. Florida is just 2-5 in Nolasco’s home starts despite his 3.15 home ERA.

Nolasco has had his issues against the Braves over the years, with a 5.33 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 career starts against them. In April, Nolasco allowed five runs in five innings in Atlanta. He gave up three runs and eight hits over four innings in his last home start against the Braves, in May 2010.

The Braves will go with veteran right-hander Derek Lowe (3-4, 4.07 ERA). He’s been shaky of late, posting a 5.40 ERA over his past five starts, though Atlanta managed to win four of those games. It’s been a similar story in his starts against Florida. Since joining the Braves in 2009, Lowe has a 7.06 ERA against the Marlins, but Atlanta has won four of his six starts.

Lowe has been better on the road this year, posting a 3.26 ERA away from home with five quality starts among his seven outings (and one of the non-quality starts was 5.2 shutout innings on Opening Day). Considering neither he nor Nolasco are throwing well at this point, I’d consider this game a coin flip. With the Braves having a bigger payout, my pick is Atlanta.

The FoxSheets have this four-star trend working in the Braves’ favor:

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. (41-17 since 1997, 70.7%, +34.2 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:08 PM

Orioles try to hand A's their 9th straight loss

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (27-35)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (28-31)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -135, Oakland +125, Total: 8

Offense has been an issue for Oakland all season, especially during their current eight-game losing streak, but they’ll have a chance to get to Rookie of the Year candidate Zach Britton for a second time in 10 days on Wednesday.

The A’s were shut out in embarrassing fashion Tuesday night, mustering just five hits off minor-league journeyman Chris Jakubauskas (who entered the game with a career 5.59 ERA in the bigs) and three relievers. They’re last in the American League with 3.56 runs per game and 34 home runs.

But Oakland’s last win, and one of their few offensive highlights this year, came against Britton (5-4, 3.33 ERA). On May 29, they got to the rookie for six runs, 10 hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 victory in Oakland.

After a fast start to the season Britton has struggled in his past two starts, not surprising considering his less-than-dominating repertoire. After the Oakland shelling, he allowed seven runs (five earned) and nine base runners in five innings in a loss to Toronto. The lefty has been better at home this year. He has a 2.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at Camden Yards, and Baltimore has won five of his eight home starts.

He’s made three starts since coming up to replace the injured Brandon McCarthy in the rotation, and the last one was his ugliest. He allowed five runs (four earned) in 2.2 innings in Boston on Friday.

Outman was strong at home against the Orioles on May 28, holding them to two runs over six innings. However, he allowed 11 base runners (six hits and five walks) in that game while striking out just two. He has as ugly 6-to-9 K-to-BB ratio in his three starts this season.

While Britton probably isn’t as good a pitcher as his numbers would indicate, he’s far better than Outman. Throw in home-field advantage and Oakland’s slumping bats, and Baltimore is my pick.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend based on O’s manager Buck Showalter that works in Baltimore’s favor:

SHOWALTER is 20-8 (71.4%, +19.0 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive unders as the manager of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:09 PM

Weaver, Angels try to avoid getting swept by Rays

TAMPA BAY RAYS (32-29)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (30-33)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -145, Tampa Bay +135, Total: 6.5

The Rays will look to sweep the Angels on Wednesday when they play the final game of their three-game series in Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay will send James Shields (5-4, 2.77 ERA) to the mound, who is looking to end his recent streak of issues. After starting the season 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and the Rays winning seven of those eight starts, Shields is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA in his past four outings. He allowed a season-worst eight runs (7 ER) over four innings during Thursday's 8-2 loss in Seattle. This will be Shields’ second start against the Angels this season, as he allowed one run and six hits over eight innings on April 30, but received a no-decision in a 2-1 Rays win. He is 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles.

Johnny Damon, who has the longest current streak of consecutive games reaching base with 33, is just three doubles shy of 500 in his career. When he reaches that total he will become the 11th player in MLB history to record 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 homers and 2,500 hits. All 10 other players to post those numbers are in the Hall of Fame.

The Angels will send Jered Weaver (7-4, 2.14 ERA) to the mound who will look to join Jon Lester as the only eight-game winners in the AL this season. The Angels have not supported their starters with much offensive help recently, scoring just 13 runs in losing six of their past seven games. Weaver snapped his streak of six consecutive winless outings Friday as he allowed two runs and three hits over seven innings of a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The three runs matched the most support he's received in seven starts. Weaver is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six career starts against the Rays.

After losing 41 of their first 55 games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Tampa has won six of its past seven visits, and will be looking for its first three-game sweep there in team history. However, I like Weaver to hold off the Rays’ bats and the Angels to squeak by with just enough runs to get the win. I’m taking Los Angeles.

The FoxSheets provide two highly-rated trends favoring the Angels to avoid the sweep.

Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (L.A. ANGELS) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. (91-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +46.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. (95-32 since 1997.) (74.8%, +43.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:11 PM

Brewers are big favorites to beat Mets Wednesday

NEW YORK METS (29-31)

at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (34-27)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -165, New York +155, Total: 8.5

The Mets and Brewers will meet in the second contest of their three-game series at Miller Park on Wednesday. New York took the opener on Tuesday, 2-1, behind a great performance by Chris Capuano.

Mike Pelfrey (3-4, 5.56 ERA) will start for the Mets. Pelfrey has been downright awful this season, after winning a career-high 15 games in 2010. He allowed seven runs (all earned) in his last start against the Pirates, but received a no-decision after the Mets were able to rally from being down 7-0 to win the game. That marked the sixth time in his 12 starts that he has allowed at least four earned runs. On the road, Pelfrey is 1-4, and his 8.58 ERA is the second-highest amongst pitchers who have made at least six starts. This will be his fourth career start against the Brewers, as he is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his three previous outings. His one win came in his only career appearance at Miller Park, when he threw 7.2 shutout innings.

Milwaukee will counter with Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.69 ERA), who has made a career of defeating the Mets. Wolf is 12-5 with a 3.27 ERA in his 32 career starts against New York and will attempt to become the first pitcher to defeat the Mets with five different teams. Wolf has defeated the Mets as a member of the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres and Astros. He is 6-0 with a 3.27 ERA in his past 11 starts the Mets, with his team winning nine of those 11 starts. But Wolf has been scuffling lately. After starting the season 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA in his first six starts, Wolf is 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in his past six starts.

The Brewers lost for just the fourth time in their past 17 games on Tuesday, and are an ML-best 21-8 at home. Prince Fielder hit his fourth HR in his past five games on Tuesday when he took Chris Capuano deep in the sixth inning. For the Mets, Jose Reyes continues to show why he will earn big-time money in the offseason as a free agent. Reyes is hitting .458 over his current 13-game hit streak, which includes nine multi-hit games, and five triples.

The Mets just don’t beat Wolf, and with Pelfrey, who is always on the verge of a complete mental breakdown, on the mound, I like heavily-favored Milwaukee to win.

This impressive FoxSheets trend also backs the Brewers.

MILWAUKEE is 34-9 (79.1%, +18.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-08-2011, 04:12 PM

Tigers go for sweep in Arlington Wednesday

DETROIT TIGERS (33-27)

at TEXAS RANGERS (34-28)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -170, Detroit +160, Total: 9

The suddenly red-hot Detroit Tigers look for their fifth straight victory and a sweep of their three-game series at AL West leader Texas on Wednesday. Detroit has won eight of its past nine games to move within 1½ games behind the Indians for first in the AL Central.

Phil Coke (1-5, 3.81 ERA) gets the start for the Tigers. Coke will be making his first appearance since May 23 against Tampa Bay when he left after 3.1 innings with a bone bruise in his right foot. The left-hander has not won since April 14, going 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in his past seven starts. Wednesday will be Coke’s first career start against Texas, who he has faced eight previous times coming out of the bullpen, going 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in his 8.2 innings.

The Rangers will send Alexi Ogando (6-0, 2.20 ERA) to the mound, hoping to snap their two-game losing streak. Ogando has been perhaps the majors’ best pitcher so far in 2011, and leads the majors with a 0.88 WHIP. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this season, and Texas has won each of his past five starts, with Ogando going 3-0 over that span. This will be Ogando’s second start against the Tigers this season, as he went seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits, at Comerica Park on April 11.

Detroit has really pounded the ball in its past eight games, scoring 54 runs, blasting 12 HR and hitting .336 over that span. Austin Jackson has been on fire during the Tigers four-game win streak, hitting .476 (10-for-21) with 1 HR, 3 RBI and six runs scored.

After allowing just six runs and posting a 0.78 WHIP during their five-game win streak, which included three shutouts, the Rangers have allowed 21 runs and 38 hits in losing their past two games. I like Texas to get back on track with unbeaten Ogando on the mound, who I expect to shut down the hot bats of Detroit.

The FoxSheets support the Rangers with these two highly-rated trends.

Play On - Home teams (TEXAS) - where team's hitters strike out 6 or less times/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts. (122-73 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.6%, +48.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) - after 2 straight games with at least 7 more hits than their opponent, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (32-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.4%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).

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