Tuesday's Trends and Indexes - 5/3 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NHL


Tuesday, May 3

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Washington is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

9:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. NASHVILLE
Vancouver is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Vancouver
Nashville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Vancouver


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[Udog]

NHL


Tuesday, May 3

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What bettors need to know: Tuesday's NHL playoff action
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Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning (-104, 5)

Tampa Bay leads 2-0

THE STORY: The Tampa Bay Lightning are having such a good time on the road that they might not want to come home. After winning five straight away from the Sunshine State - including the first two of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the top-seeded Washington Capitals - well, the schedule dictates that the fifth-seeded Lightning must play the next two at St. Pete Times Forum. Captain Vincent Lecavalier did his part by netting his second goal of the night at 6:19 of overtime to give Tampa Bay a 3-2 win on Sunday. Now, coach Guy Boucher's club will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series when the teams reconvene in Tampa Bay on Tuesday.

TV: 6:30 ET, VERSUS, TSN

ABOUT THE CAPITALS: Captain Alex Ovechkin sent the Verizon Center into a frenzy when he scored with 67 seconds to play in regulation on Sunday. His fourth tally of the postseason leveled the contest at 2-2. After allowing just two goals in three home playoff games, rookie Michal Neuvirth permitted three tallies for the second straight contest against the Lightning. Nicklas Backstrom led the Capitals in shots for the second straight game. He had six shots in Game 2. Backstrom also picked up an assist to mark just his second point of the playoffs, but hasn't scored a goal since March 22 against the Philadelphia Flyers. Washington right wing Mike Knuble returned to the ice on Sunday after a three-game absence due to a hand injury.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: For all of the much-publicized stars, defenseman Randy Jones made quite the impact despite playing under 6 1/2 minutes in his first postseason game on Sunday. In the lineup for the injured Pavel Kubina, Jones wired a lead pass up to Teddy Purcell at the offensive blue line. Purcell then found Lecavalier, who lifted the puck over Neuvirth for the overtime winner. Hart Trophy finalist Martin St. Louis recorded a goal and an assist, Purcell set up two tallies and Dwayne Roloson made 35 saves on Sunday.

WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Lecavalier has registered four points already in the semifinal series. After notching a pair of assists in the Game 1 win, he scored twice in Game 2 to up his postseason points total to 10. He also has secured points in seven of the nine playoff games this far. Washington left wing Brooks Laich had a goal and assist on Sunday and now has four points in his last three contests.

SPECIAL TEAMS: After stopping 34 of 35 shorthanded situations against the Penguins, the Lightning picked up where they left off by killing off all 11 of the Capitals' power plays in the first two games of the series. Tampa Bay went 1-for-5 with the man advantage on Sunday and is now 10-for-36 in the playoffs. For its part, Washington is 3-for-27 with the man advantage in the playoffs while stopping 26 of 29 shorthanded situations.

TRENDS:

* Capitals are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Capitals are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

LAST WORD: "It's a great feeling to win those two games, but we haven't done anything yet," St. Louis, on the Lightning take the first two contests of the series.



Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators (+110, 5)

Series tied 1-1

THE STORY: The decibel level at Bridgestone Arena on Tuesday will be at an all-time high as the Nashville Predators host the Vancouver Canucks in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series. The fifth-seeded Predators overcame a dreadful performance in the series opener to post a 2-1 double-overtime victory in Game 2 on Saturday. Nashville held the Presidents' Trophy-winning Canucks to a total of two goals over the first two contests and kept the high-scoring Sedin twins off the scoresheet entirely. Vezina Trophy candidates Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo have both been excellent, with the latter posting a shutout in Game 1 and the former stealing the show in Game 2 with several outstanding saves in overtime.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, VERSUS, CBC, SportSouth

ABOUT THE PREDATORS: In addition to Rinne, Nashville's top defensive pairing of captain Shea Weber and Ryan Suter were beasts on Saturday as each logged over 42 minutes of ice time. Suter also scored the Predators' first goal of the series with 67 seconds remaining in the third period and Matt Halischuk netted the game-winner at 14:51 of the second overtime. The Predators, who received just two power-play opportunities in regulation, had one in each of the overtimes. They failed on each attempt while allowing the Canucks to score their lone goal in a shorthanded situation. Steve Sullivan was Nashville's only forward not to record a shot on goal.

ABOUT THE CANUCKS: Luongo was on his way to his second straight shutout Saturday before Suter's fluke goal. The veteran netminder has stopped 64 of the 66 shots he has faced thus far in the series. Vancouver was outshot 36-15 in regulation but came alive in extra time, registering 18 shots to the Predators' 10. While Weber and Suter received the bulk of the ice time among Nashville's blue-liners, the Canucks' top four defensemen shared the load. Kevin Bieksa led the way with over 38 minutes of action, Dan Hamhuis and Alex Edler fell just short of that plateau and Christian Ehrhoff spent over 34 minutes on the ice.

WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Alex Burrows scored the lone goal for Vancouver in Game 2 after netting both of his team's tallies in Game 7 of the conference quarterfinals against the Chicago Blackhawks, including the winner in overtime. Burrows has four goals in his last four contests. Ryan Kesler and captain Henrik Sedin both have five assists but no goals in nine games this postseason. Joel Ward and Mike Fisher lead the Predators with three goals and six points apiece, and Weber also has tallied three times.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Neither team has broken through on the power play thus far in the series, with Nashville going 0-for-9 and Vancouver 0-for-6. Both the Predators (6-for-36) and Canucks (4-for-24) have converted 16.7 percent of their chances in the postseason. Vancouver has an 84.2 percent success rate on the penalty kill while Nashville has a 71.4 percent efficiency.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Canucks are 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Nashville.
* Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Nashville.

LAST WORD: "He was definitely their best player. We had plenty of chances to win it in overtime and plenty of chances to go up 2-0 (in the series), and he stood on his head." - Bieksa, on Rinne's performance in Game 2.


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[Udog]

NHL


Tuesday, May 3

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Ice picks: Tuesday's best NHL bets
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Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning (-104, 5)

It does not look good for the Capitals right now, having lost the first two games of this series at home. Tampa Bay won 4-2 in Game 1 and 3-2 on Sunday.

Still, at least Washington has been competitive. The series opener was a one-goal game until the Lightning scored on an empty net late in the third period. Game 2 went into overtime, at which point Martin St. Louis won it while Dwayne Roloson shut the door.

The Capitals won’t mind going on the road because they came away victorious in their last two trips to Tampa Bay. They dominated 5-2 on February 4 and won 2-1 in a shootout on March 7.

“The series is not over,” Alex Ovechkin told the Washington Post. “We’re going there, and we’re going to win two games. It’s going to be hard, but right now in this situation, we have to win.”

Guaranteeing it probably isn’t a good idea, but the visitors should be able to get a victory in Game 3.

Pick: Capitals


Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators (+110, 5)

Vancouver saw its two-game winning streak come to an end on Saturday, but not because its opponent did anything to solve Roberto Luongo. The Canucks’ goalie allowed only one goal in regulation and did not give up the game-winner until late in the second overtime.

Luongo has seen only three pucks go by him in his last three outings. He stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 2-1 Game 7 win over Chicago, turned back all 20 shots in a 1-0 shutout of Nashville in Game 1, and saved 44 of 46 attempts in Game 2.

For the Predators, netminder Pekka Rinne is also in fine form. He, too, has allowed only two goals in the first two games of the series.

“Peks is a big reason, obviously," captain Shea Weber told the Tennessean of his team’s defense. “It is a team effort, too. You need five guys out there to shut those guys down.”

Vancouver and Nashville have now faced each other six times this season and all six games have gone under the total.

Pick: Under


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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


LA Angels at Boston
The Red Sox look to build on their 21-5 record in Jon Lester's last 26 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Boston is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 3

Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 15.269; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.277
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: Houston at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 15.819; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.254
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); Under

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.192; Atlanta (Hanson) 14.945
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+140); Under

Game 957-958: San Francisco at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.355; NY Mets (Dickey) 14.848
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-135); Over

Game 959-960: Florida at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 16.392; St. Louis (McClellan) 15.983
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.523; Arizona (Saunders) 13.902
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-140); Under

Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 15.543; San Diego (Latos) 15.252
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 13.638; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.326
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at Tampa Bay (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Reyes) 15.274; Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.937
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Over

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.042; Detroit (Penny) 15.395
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145); Under

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 15.860; Boston (Lester) 16.907
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 13.966; White Sox (Jackson) 13.204
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

Game 975-976: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.939; Kansas City (Francis) 15.060
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under

Game 977-978: Cleveland at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.494; Oakland (Ross) 16.414
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Over

Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 15.662; Seattle (Bedard) 15.526
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Over

[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet


Tuesday, May 3

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WASHINGTON (14 - 14) at PHILADELPHIA (18 - 9) - 7:05 PM
LIVAN HERNANDEZ (R) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 (+0.8 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

LIVAN HERNANDEZ vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 12-10 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.317.
His team's record is 14-14 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-15. (-4.9 units)

COLE HAMELS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HAMELS is 9-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.101.
His team's record is 14-4 (+6.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-11. (-4.7 units)

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HOUSTON (11 - 17) at CINCINNATI (14 - 14) - 7:10 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 49-37 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 65-39 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 184-172 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 58-37 (+17.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 183-170 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 23-8 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 51-42 (+19.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 76-74 (-42.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-1 (+0.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
HAPP is 0-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 8.18 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

MIKE LEAKE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LEAKE is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.263.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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MILWAUKEE (13 - 15) at ATLANTA (15 - 15) - 7:10 PM
MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. TOMMY HANSON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against ATLANTA this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

MARCO ESTRADA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ESTRADA is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

TOMMY HANSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
HANSON is 1-3 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 1.213.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.5 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 15) at NY METS (12 - 16) - 7:10 PM
RYAN VOGELSONG (R) vs. R.A. DICKEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 116-90 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-51 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 115-88 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 79-57 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 148-119 (+23.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-7 (+15.1 Units) against the money line after getting shut out over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 97-66 (+29.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. NY METS since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

R.A. DICKEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
DICKEY is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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FLORIDA (18 - 9) at ST LOUIS (16 - 13) - 8:15 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. KYLE MCCLELLAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 28-9 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 54-42 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 542-603 (+43.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
FLORIDA is 18-9 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
FLORIDA is 78-60 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 91-83 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 18-9 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
FLORIDA is 16-5 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
FLORIDA is 14-5 (+10.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 101-89 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 99-88 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

KYLE MCCLELLAN vs. FLORIDA since 1997
No recent starts.

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COLORADO (17 - 9) at ARIZONA (12 - 15) - 9:40 PM
JORGE DE LA ROSA (L) vs. JOE SAUNDERS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 59-65 (-23.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 38-39 (-17.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 5-15 (-12.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 36-26 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 61-88 (-27.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 579-509 (-71.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 75-112 (-30.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 39-66 (-28.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 56-90 (-35.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 77-113 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 (+0.9 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

JORGE DE LA ROSA vs. ARIZONA since 1997
DE LA ROSA is 6-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.151.
His team's record is 6-4 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-6. (-2.3 units)

JOE SAUNDERS vs. COLORADO since 1997
SAUNDERS is 3-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.114.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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PITTSBURGH (14 - 15) at SAN DIEGO (11 - 18) - 10:05 PM
JEFF KARSTENS (R) vs. MAT LATOS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 27-71 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 17-51 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 48-94 (-25.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 12-36 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 5-20 (-13.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 27-71 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 101-91 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 4-13 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 2-10 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

JEFF KARSTENS vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
KARSTENS is 0-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

MAT LATOS vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LATOS is 1-0 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (12 - 16) at LA DODGERS (15 - 15) - 10:10 PM
RYAN DEMPSTER (R) vs. CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 88-103 (-21.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 88-103 (-21.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 123-134 (-30.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
DEMPSTER is 32-40 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DEMPSTER is 32-40 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DEMPSTER is 75-62 (+17.7 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

RYAN DEMPSTER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
DEMPSTER is 7-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.251.
His team's record is 11-3 (+8.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-2.1 units)

CHAD BILLINGSLEY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
BILLINGSLEY is 4-3 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+1.9 units)

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TORONTO (13 - 15) at TAMPA BAY (15 - 13) - 6:40 PM
JO-JO REYES (L) vs. WADE DAVIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 68-25 (+27.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 397-505 (+15.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 13-5 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TORONTO is 98-93 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 52-36 (+23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 15-5 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 62-53 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 81-67 (+18.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 53-47 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JO-JO REYES vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
REYES is 0-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

WADE DAVIS vs. TORONTO since 1997
DAVIS is 2-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.108.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

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NY YANKEES (17 - 9) at DETROIT (12 - 17) - 7:05 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. BRAD PENNY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 38-16 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 3-1 (+1.7 Units) against DETROIT this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 15-11 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.272.
His team's record is 18-13 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 14-17. (-4.9 units)

BRAD PENNY vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
PENNY is 3-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.25 and a WHIP of 1.832.
His team's record is 4-2 (+4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (16 - 13) at BOSTON (13 - 15) - 7:10 PM
DAN HAREN (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HAREN is 17-24 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 15-24 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 11-18 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 580-501 (+65.2 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 50-31 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 21-14 (+14.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 96-87 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 486-473 (+70.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 174-165 (+28.4 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters since 1997.
BOSTON is 91-82 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

DAN HAREN vs. BOSTON since 1997
HAREN is 2-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.192.
His team's record is 3-6 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

JON LESTER vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
LESTER is 4-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.416.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+3.0 units)

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MINNESOTA (9 - 18) at CHI WHITE SOX (11 - 19) - 8:10 PM
FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-14 (-10.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 96-56 (+26.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 36-46 (-17.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 3-10 (-8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
LIRIANO is 3-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.622.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
JACKSON is 1-3 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.29 and a WHIP of 1.726.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

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BALTIMORE (13 - 14) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 13) - 8:10 PM
BRADLEY BERGESEN (R) vs. JEFF FRANCIS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 282-396 (-110.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 215-320 (-91.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BRADLEY BERGESEN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
BERGESEN is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

JEFF FRANCIS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
FRANCIS is 0-2 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.308.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

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CLEVELAND (19 - 8) at OAKLAND (15 - 14) - 10:05 PM
FAUSTO CARMONA (R) vs. TYSON ROSS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 15-3 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 9-2 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-8 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 19-8 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-5 (+9.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 52-72 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FAUSTO CARMONA vs. OAKLAND since 1997
CARMONA is 3-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 5.76 and a WHIP of 1.700.
His team's record is 3-6 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.3 units)

TYSON ROSS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

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TEXAS (16 - 13) at SEATTLE (13 - 16) - 10:10 PM
ALEXI OGANDO (R) vs. ERIK BEDARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 75-116 (-36.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-53 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-46 (-24.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 72-110 (-35.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 39-77 (-36.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ALEXI OGANDO vs. SEATTLE since 1997
OGANDO is 1-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

ERIK BEDARD vs. TEXAS since 1997
BEDARD is 4-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.234.
His team's record is 6-6 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-6. (-2.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Tuesday, May 3

Hot pitchers
-- Phillies won last four Hamels starts (3-0, 1.55).
-- Vogelsong won his first '11 start, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP against his old team, the Pirates.
-- Hanson is 3-1, 1.38 in his last four starts. Estrada has a 2.07 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Leake is 2-0, 3.15 in his last three starts.
-- ASanchez is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts. Cardinals are 5-0 when McClellan starts (3-0, 3.23).
-- de la Rosa is 3-0, 3.48 in his last three starts.
-- Billingsley is 1-0, 2.66 in his last three starts.

-- Davis is 3-0, 1.74 in three starts this season.
-- Sabathia is 2-1, 2.94 in his last five starts. Penny is 1-1, 3.05 in three home starts.
-- Haren is 3-1, 1.88 in six starts this season.
-- Lester is 3-0, 1.35 in his last three starts.
-- Ross has a 2.38 RA in his first two starts this season.
-- Ogando is 3-0, 2.30 in five starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Hernandez is 0-1, 9.00 in two road starts; home team won his last five outings.
-- Dickey is 0-3, 4.85 in his last four starts.
-- Happ is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 0-2, 9.39 in three home starts.
-- Latos is 0-4, 7.06 in four starts; Padres got blanked in his last couple outings. Karstens is 1-1, 6.35 in three starts this season.
-- Dempster is 1-3, 9.87 in six starts this season.

-- Reyes is 0-2, 8.61 in five starts this season.
-- EJackson is 0-3, 8.86 in his last four starts. Liriano is 1-4, 9.13 in his five starts this season.
-- Bergesen is 0-4, 6.53 so far this season; Orioles were outscored 32-10 in the four games.
-- Francis is 0-3, 10.13 in his last three outings.
-- Carmona is 0-2, 5.68 in two road starts; home side won five of his six starts this season.
-- Bedard is 1-4, 7.01 in five starts this season.

Totals
-- Uner is 4-0-1 in Washington's last five games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Last seven San Francisco games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Florida games went over the total.
-- Arizona's last three games stayed under the total.
-- Padres' last three home games went over the total.
-- Cubs' last four road games stayed under the total.

-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Detroit home games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Boston games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in White Sox' last ten games.
-- Six of last nine Baltimore road games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Cleveland games.
-- Seven of last nine Texas games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Washington won four of its last five games. Phillies won three of four.
-- Atlanta won three of its four home series openers.
-- St Louis won four of its last six games. Marlins won six of their last eight road games.
-- Rockies won nine of their last eleven road games. Arizona is 5-3 in its last eight home games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last nine home games.

-- Toronto is 8-1 in series openers so far this season. won six of their last eight games.
-- Angels won nine of their last twelve road games. Red Sox won five of their last seven home games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six games.
-- Orioles won five of their last seven games.
-- Royals won their last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Indians won their last six games, scoring 41 runs. A's won six of their last eight home games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Giants lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Milwaukee lost four of its last five games on foriegn soil.
-- Mets lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost six of their last eight home games. Houston lost three of its last four road contests.
-- San Diego lost nine of its last eleven home games. Pirates are 1-9 in their last ten games against the Padres.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games.

-- Rangers lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Tigers lost their last seven games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Minnesota lost its last six games, allowing 54 runs. White Sox lost five of their last six games.

[Udog]

MLB


Tuesday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:40 PM
TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY
Toronto is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Tampa Bay's last 23 games at home
Tampa Bay is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. DETROIT
NY Yankees are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home

7:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Washington

7:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 18 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Atlanta's last 18 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
Houston is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
Cincinnati13-3-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Houston

7:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY METS
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home
NY Mets are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Boston
LA Angels are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels

8:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

8:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chi White Sox are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games at home

8:15 PM
FLORIDA vs. ST. LOUIS
Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of St. Louis's last 18 games at home

9:40 PM
COLORADO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Colorado's last 20 games
Colorado is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Colorado

10:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
San Diego is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
San Diego is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

10:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Cleveland

10:10 PM
TEXAS vs. SEATTLE
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Texas
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas

10:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs


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[Udog]

MLB


Tuesday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rounding the bases: This week's MLB betting trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in Major League Baseball.

HOT TEAM: Seattle Mariners

THIS SEASON: 13-16
LAST WEEK: 5-1

THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Rangers for three, home to the White Sox for three.

THE SKINNY: The Mariners limped out of Safeco Field last week, after having lost two straight to Oakland and the forecast for this road trip didn’t look pretty. In the midst of another slump, Seattle had to tackle Detroit and Boston and log plenty of miles in between.

But a funny thing happened on those flights. The Mariners found their offense. In fact, they scored 24 runs in a three-game sweep of the Tigers and took two of three from the resurgent Red Sox at Fenway.

Who’s leading the charge? Well, Ichiro, of course. He’s hitting .317, but Justin Smoak - the key component in the Cliff Lee deal with Texas last season - is finding his way. He has four home runs and 17 RBIs and is second on the team with a .273 average. But, remember, this lineup isn’t very deep and could run out of gas soon, so be careful this week.

COLD TEAM: Chicago White Sox

THIS SEASON: 10-19
LAST WEEK: 2-5

THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Orioles for one, home to the Twins for three, at the Mariners for three.

THE SKINNY: Things started out well enough for Chicago last week. Despite more offensive woes, the White Sox took the first two of a four-game series from the Yankees on the road. Then, reality set in and one the league’s most disappointing teams again reared its head. The White Sox lost the final two to the Yankees, then dropped the first three to Baltimore at home.

The problem? Well, there are plenty, but the biggest two are Alex Rios and Adam Dunn. These guys are prone to slumps, but averages of .155 and .171, respectively, through Sunday is a joke. Paul Konerko is off and running with six home runs and 20 RBIs, but he simply can’t do it alone. Much was expected of Rios and Dunn and, until they figure it out, expect more of the same with this club.

OVER TEAM: Cincinnati Reds

O/U THIS SEASON: 16-11-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 4-1-1

THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Astros for three, at the Cubs for three.

THE SKINNY: The Reds ended last season with a whimper, getting swept by the Phillies in the first round and they were even no-hit by Roy Halladay in Game 1. But Cincinnati used that experience, made very few offseason moves, and trusted its core lineup enough to know that the Reds can probably get themselves back in the postseason mix again this year.

And so far, so good. The Reds reached or surpassed eight runs seven times in April, and have one of the more balanced lineups in the National League. Through Sunday, Joey Votto was hitting .357, Jonny Gomes had six home runs, and Brandon Phillips had 14 RBIs. Cincinnati can come at you in waves, and with the hitters’ haven that is their home ballpark, those sorts of numbers should continue on into the summer.

As far as the starters as concerned, they’ve been giving up some runs, too. And when your leader in ERA is Bronson Arroyo at 4.17, you have a nice recipe for overs.

UNDER TEAM: Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U THIS SEASON: 10-17-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-6

THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Padres for three, home to the Astros for three.

THE SKINNY: It hasn’t all been bad for the Pirates, just yet. Taking a 13-15 record into Monday’s series opener at San Diego, Clint Hurdle’s team has proven they can battle, they can pitch a little, and with no fanfare, who knows, they may be able to put themselves in a position to have a winning record for the first time in 19 years.

But they can’t hit with any consistency and bettors should take advantage. In seven games last week, Pittsburgh scored four runs or less in six of them. Neil Walker, at .287 through Sunday, is about as good as it gets for the regulars and while Andrew McCutchen had five home runs, he was only hitting .225.

Parlay that with a surprisingly sound pitching staff and the unders have been cashing in. Kevin Correia has four wins, Paul Maholm has 25 strikeouts and Joel Hanrahan is pure gold as a closer. He took eight saves and a 1.80 ERA into this week’s action. It all adds up to a boring watch, but with unders hitting at that clip, you have to take notice.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB


Tuesday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smokin' Aces: Hot and cold MLB pitchers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Welcome to another edition of Smokin’ Aces, a bi-weekly look around the majors at those starting pitchers that are hot and those that are not.

I’ll try to avoid isolating perennial Cy Young candidates such as Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. Those pricey pitchers rarely boast value when you’re backing them and, let’s face it, fading them is rarely a good idea.

Here’s a look at this week’s list.

Money makers

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels boast an outstanding 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

While Weaver has been slightly more dominant so far this season, I prefer Haren from a value perspective. That value should increase now that the Angels have fallen short in each of his last two outings.

Those two losses have been no fault of Haren’s. He’s allowed 18 fewer hits than innings pitched this season while recording a stellar 38:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

His performance away from home has been most impressive. He’s gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in three starts.

At 16-12 on the season, the Angels continue to fly under the radar. Our next opportunity to back Haren will come in Boston Tuesday.

Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers

Lost in the Brewers’ offseason acquisition of ace Zack Greinke (who has yet to throw a pitch this season) was their deal to bring Shaun Marcum in from Toronto.

Save for a shaky season debut against the Reds, Marcum has been lights out. The Brewers are 4-1 in his last five outings and he’s allowed just six earned runs while posting a 27:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings of work over that stretch.

The good news for Marcum-backers is that he’s heading into what has traditionally been his strongest month of the season. Marcum owns a career 9-2 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in the month of May. He’s held opposing hitters to a .193 batting average along the way.

The Brewers have been nothing more than a .500 team so far this season, but it’s only a matter of time before their bats come to life. And when they do, I expect Marcum to boast substantial value.


Bankroll burners

Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox

Of all the offseason acquisitions around the majors, Edwin Jackson has been one of the biggest disappointments.

The White Sox were counting on him to help solidify their rotation this season and in his first two starts, it appeared he would do just that.

The wheels have fallen off since. Jackson has allowed 34 hits and 20 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 21 1-3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the White Sox have dropped three of those four games. Those three losses have come by an incredible 26-3 margin.

Chicago is slumping as bad as any team in baseball right now, so you would be hard pressed to find reasons to back any of their starters - let alone a struggling arm like Jackson right now. Believe it or not, the White Sox still find themselves as a public favorite on most nights, so there’s still value to be had in fading them.

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

We’re not seeing the same Bronson Arroyo that enjoyed a career resurgence over the last couple of seasons.

He’s just 1-3 over his last four starts, lasting seven innings only once over that stretch. It’s not a case of the veteran right hander being a hard-luck loser either. He’s been tagged for 27 hits and 14 earned runs over his last 23 2-3 innings pitched.

Since not issuing a single walk in his first two starts of the season, Arroyo has handed out seven free passes over his last four outings. Compounding matters is the fact that he’s been taken out of the yard five times over that stretch.

The Reds haven’t resembled the defending NL Central champions, losing 11 of their last 17 games overall. The betting marketplace still hasn’t properly adjusted to their recent struggles, so keep an eye out for the opportunity to fade Arroyo as a favorite in the next couple of weeks.


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[Udog]

MLB


Tuesday, May 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Tuesday's best MLB bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics (-115, 7.5)

Baseball traditionalists never put very much stock into the first month of the season, but as far as ball bettors go, money’s money. The Indians are running away with the league’s cash standings early on, banking more than 13 units already.

You have to be impressed, considering the circumstances. The Indians are coming off a terrible season last year and had the deck stacked against them with a bunch of injuries to kick off this campaign.

"We lost two of our starters to the DL," closer Chris Perez told reporters about Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot, "and it's just swept under the rug. ... I think it shows how far this organization has come. I think there are other teams that could lose two-fifths of their rotation, like the Yankees, and start signing scrap-heap guys. We're not doing that."

What they are doing is a whole lot of winning, checking into Tuesday’s date with six straight wins. The value’s here to bet on a seventh.

Pick: Indians


San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-125, 7.5)

It doesn’t look like either of these teams is going to score many runs.

The Giants are without one of their only offensive weapons now that Pablo Sandoval is on the shelf and are hitting only .208 over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, New York has managed just nine runs over the last four games and are hitting only .243 on the year.

The Mets managed to avoid a sweep against the Phillies by booking a 2-1 win on Sunday, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a rejuvenated Ryan Vogelsong who just picked up his first win since 2005.

"I wondered if I'd ever pitch in the big leagues again, let alone get a chance to be a starter and win a game," Vogelsong told reporters.

We’ll keep riding his hot hand in this spot and just hope the Giants can manage to push a few runs across R.A. Dickey.

Pick: Giants


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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Tuesday, May 3

National League

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA, 7:05 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: N/A
HAMELS: N/A

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI, 7:10 PM ET
HAPP: HOUSTON 21-11 after 3 or more consecutive unders
LEAKE: CINCINNATI 6-11 as a favorite

MILWAUKEE at ATLANTA, 7:10 PM ET
ESTRADA: MILWAUKEE 3-13 after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more
HANSON: ATLANTA 41-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -175

SAN FRANCISCO at NY METS, 7:10 PM ET
VOGELSONG: SAN FRANCISCO 24-13 after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games
DICKEY: NY METS 9-21 after a one run win

FLORIDA at ST LOUIS, 8:15 PM ET
SANCHEZ: FLORIDA 7-1 as an underdog of +100 to +150
MCCLELLAN: ST LOUIS 10-2 OVER off BB games without giving up a stolen base

COLORADO at ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET
DE LA ROSA: COLORADO 12-3 when the money line is -100 to -150
SAUNDERS: ARIZONA 9-25 after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games

PITTSBURGH at SAN DIEGO, 10:05 PM ET
KARSTENS: PITTSBURGH 10-6 as an underdog of +125 to +175
LATOS: SAN DIEGO 2-10 in home games against right-handed starters

CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS, 10:10 PM ET
DEMPSTER: 9-1 OVER against NL West opponents
BILLINGSLEY: LA DODGERS 53-37 OVER after a win

American League

TORONTO at TAMPA BAY, 6:40 PM ET
REYES: TORONTO 15-5 when playing with a day off
DAVIS: TAMPA BAY 35-32 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

NY YANKEES at DETROIT, 7:05 PM ET
SABATHIA: NY YANKEES 18-24 after a win by 2 runs or less
PENNY: 24-12 TSR as a home underdog of +100 or higher

LA ANGELS at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET
HAREN: 11-18 TSR in night games
LESTER: BOSTON 69-25 after 4 or more consecutive home games

MINNESOTA at CHI WHITE SOX, 8:10 PM ET
LIRIANO: MINNESOTA 13-4 after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games
JACKSON: 8-0 OVER at home with a money line of -100 to -125

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY, 8:10 PM ET
BERGESEN: BALTIMORE 26-18 after having won 2 of their last 3 games
FRANCIS: KANSAS CITY 6-31 after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND, 10:05 PM ET
CARMONA: CLEVELAND 9-2 after 3 or more consecutive wins
ROSS: OAKLAND 46-65 off a one run win over a division rival

TEXAS at SEATTLE, 10:10 PM ET
OGANDO: TEXAS 96-63 UNDER after a loss
BEDARD: SEATTLE 54-36 UNDER in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change