Tweet
Season Best Bets
March 28, 2011
Baseball starts this week and it is an appropriate time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Last year, there were some big surprises with the Giants and Rangers making the World Series. Both were expected to be good teams, but few saw that type of run coming. Which teams are capable of making a move in 2011? Here is a quick review of both leagues and our best bet for team 'over/under' wins in each division.
NL EAST
The Phillies enter the season with an incredible starting rotation coming off a disappointing exit to the postseason last year and this will be the overwhelming favorite to not only win the NL East and the NL, but the World Series. The pitching staff has a lot of miles on it, however so injuries could be a factor this season and there are big questions in the bullpen as well as with an aging offense. Atlanta appears to be the only team that can realistically make a run at this division title if veteran starters Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson can be healthy and effective and there is a lot of young talent in the lineup. Atlanta lacks a proven closer, but overall the bullpen looks like it is good shape to start the first year of the post Bobby Cox era. Florida should again be a competitive team and the Marlins rotation has a high ceiling with the addition of Javier Vazquez, but on offense there is not as much potential as the other teams in this division. The Mets have very little stability in the rotation but in a favorable ballpark the starting pitching may be better than most expect, even if Johan Santana is shelved for much of the season. The Mets have a few big names on offense, but not enough potential for consistent production. Washington made a bit of a splash in the off season with a couple of additions, but in the health and development of young pitching will make or break or the season. Washington will be competitive and could have its most wins since 2007.
BEST BET - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES UNDER 96.5: The offense is going to have issues with Chase Utley and Domonic Brown already fighting injuries plus the age of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez is a legitimate concern. The bullpen will likely blow some leads and betting against the extreme is where the value is as Philadelphia's rotation likely runs into more problems than most expect this season, even though this team should win the NL East.
NL CENTRAL
Many saw the Reds as one-year fluke last season, winning the division in a down year for the NL Central. Cincinnati's young offense should again be productive even if Joey Votto does not have a repeat MVP season and the pitching staff for the Reds is more than capable. The Reds will have a full season with Edinson Volquez and among Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Homer Bailey the Reds should find capable #4 & #5 starters. Milwaukee made a lot of noise in the offseason, but Zack Greinke will start the year on the DL and banking on Chris Narveson and an often-injured Shaun Marcum could leave this rotation a bit thin. The bullpen had major issues early last year before coming together behind John Axford and the Brewers will face a lot of pressure with the organization putting some money out for a winner. If things do not go well early, don't be surprised if the Brewers ship off some key pieces. St. Louis is still a threat in this division even with Adam Wainwright's major injury. The Cardinals always seem to find a pitcher to step up as Jaime Garcia did last season. Lance Berkman adds a bat in the lineup, but whether he can play everyday in the outfield is a concern. The Cubs added Matt Garza to the rotation, but the lineup has a less than viable mix of underperforming veterans and unproven young players. Houston could be a bit of a surprise with a better rotation than most people expect. This team will struggle on offense, but there is a lot of speed and some upside. The Pirates actually will have an offense that can compete in this division with Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker likely headed for breakout years. Pitching will again be the downfall and there will be a lot of pressure on a young staff in an offense-oriented ballpark.
BEST BET - CINCINNATI REDS OVER 85.5: The Reds pitching staff is coming under some scrutiny and in that ballpark it will be tough to have lights out numbers, but it was an effective staff last season that has enough potential to improve. This looks like the most complete offense in the division and the Reds were one of only four teams in the NL with a winning road record last season despite being considered a team that is built on success at home.
NL WEST
The NL West was very competitive last season with the top four teams all winning at least 80 games. Pitching is paramount in this division and the Giants and Padres should again lead the way with the best starting staffs. San Francisco lost a few key pieces on offense and there was a lot of mileage on this young rotation last season which could come into play this season. The Dodgers may be a surprise team this season as Los Angeles has an underrated pitching staff and the offense has enough talent with a few key additions to be perhaps the best in this division even after a down 2010. Colorado got a career year from Ubaldo Jimenez last season, but the Rockies faded late in the season and there may not be enough depth on the staff to last a whole season. The Rockies have a good lineup, but Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki may have trouble matching great 2010 seasons. San Diego was a great story last season, but the offense without Adrian Gonzalez will take a step back. The Padres signed a lot veteran players cast aside by other clubs and unfortunately there may be good reason that those players were not retained. Arizona looks very young both on the pitching staff and the lineup. It won't take a lot for the Diamondbacks to improve on the past two seasons, but in this tough division it will be tough to make a big move with a four quality teams in the division and the least experienced pitching staff.
BEST BET - COLORADO ROCKIES UNDER 86.5: The Rockies were a better team that the record indicated last season as they lost the final eight games of the season on a horrible late season slide. Overall, the rotation will not likely be able to compete in this division. Jimenez had a huge workload last season to deliver a career year and the contributions from Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel may be difficult to replicate. There is not much to fall back on if there is an injury on the starting staff.
AL EAST
Boston made the biggest moves in the offseason with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and if healthy this could be the best offense in the game. The Red Sox were rarely healthy last season and even if the offense delivers, the starting rotation is banking on the health of three high-mileage veterans that have battled recent injures and a closer that has had many ups and downs. Don't discount the impact of a new catcher as well with Jarrod Saltalamacchia moving in, a highly-touted prospect that has not really panned out and has been considered a defensive liability. It was a rather quiet winter in New York minus the Derek Jeter signing saga. The offense is another year older and bigger name additions of Andruw Jones and Russell Martin are not likely to be big impact moves. The Yankees were not able to upgrade their pitching staff and could pay the price in this division of great offenses. The Rays are projected for a move back to the middle of this division, but the rotation should be excellent and the offense can still compete. Most seem to believe that Toronto overachieved last season, but there is a lot of power in the lineup and while the rotation is very young there is talent and a solid bullpen has been pieced together. Baltimore is an intriguing team after the instant improvement the club made with Buck Showalter. The Orioles made several moves to upgrade the offense, but ultimately is putting a lot faith in a few veteran players that had disappointing 2010 seasons. The pitching staff will get beat up in this division and while improvement is likely there is a lot of ground to make up.
BEST BET - TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER 84.5: Don't sleep on the Rays with this number projecting a 12-win decline from last season with the team that had the best record in the AL. A few big names are gone, but the offensive numbers are not likely to drop significantly and this should be the best starting rotation in this division. There has been significant turnover in the bullpen, but Tampa Bay has done a very good job at developing young relievers and finding gems on the free agent market.
AL CENTRAL
The Twins saw another familiar exit from playoffs last season, but with a 94-68 record, Minnesota was very successful despite battling a lot of injuries and having a 'down' year from Joe Mauer. Minnesota has depth in its starting rotation despite lacking a true ace, but the bullpen let several key pieces depart in the offseason. Chicago could a have a scary rotation if Jake Peavy ever returns to form, but that appears less and less likely. The White Sox also have bullpen questions but this is a formidable lineup that added Adam Dunn as a serious threat at DH. Detroit has been competitive the last two years, but has not made up enough ground in this division. Detroit's pitching has some upside potential, but Brad Penny and Phil Coke will be experiments. Victor Martinez is a dangerous bat back in the AL Central and the Tigers have some stability in the bullpen that few teams have. Cleveland has plenty of young talent, but the Indians were one of the most disappointing teams in the league last year, failing to compete from the get-go. The pitching staff is short on experience especially in the rotation, but if a few young arms develop this team may be respectable. The Royals are in familiar territory of having let go of a star player and starting fresh with youth and less than desirable veterans, many of which are coming off major injuries. There were a few bright spots for the Royals last season and this is a team with a decent shot to improve and a have a season more reminiscent of the 2008 season. However the Royals are always a threat to ship away its productive pieces mid-season.
BEST BET - DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 83.5: The Tigers nearly won the division in 2009 and were much more competitive than most expected last season but outside of Justin Verlander the pitching staff is filled with question marks. Max Scherzer pitched great in stretches last season, but Rick Porcello took a big step back. Several relievers return, but the bullpen lacks a proven closer and early spring distractions have not helped the cause.
AL WEST
Texas should continue to have very good pitching this season even without Cliff Lee as there are many quality starting options and a wildcard with Brandon Webb possibly taking the mound. The bullpen was a strong point for the Rangers last season and this lineup will still be far and away the best in the division. Adrian Beltre is a nice addition to boost the team on offense and defense and Mike Napoli provides some punch behind the plate. Oakland could have a very strong rotation with Trevor Cahill coming off a great season and a healthy Brett Anderson available. The A's made a few upgrades on offense so this is a sleeper team in the AL as the Rangers are certainly not a lock to repeat in the West. The Angels look to bounce back from a tough 2010 season after a great run of success, but the pitching is not as good as it might look on paper and injuries have already been mounting this spring. This is an offense that could really struggle to compete even with a few big names in the lineup. Seattle added a few bats to the lineup after a disastrous 2010 season and a new era for the Mariners begins. This team has no where to go but up and the pitching on this team has a lot of potential. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year, but with a little more support he could carry this team and the young rotation actually started to show progress last season despite the record. Erik Bedard is also a threat to emerge at some point.
BEST BET - SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 69.5: The Mariners were horrible last season but injuries and foolish personnel moves played a big role in a poor start to the season that just snowballed. Eric Wedge is a good manager that should get more out of this team and the young rotation should find more success in a division that lacks a lot of big bats.
March 28, 2011
Baseball starts this week and it is an appropriate time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Last year, there were some big surprises with the Giants and Rangers making the World Series. Both were expected to be good teams, but few saw that type of run coming. Which teams are capable of making a move in 2011? Here is a quick review of both leagues and our best bet for team 'over/under' wins in each division.
NL EAST
The Phillies enter the season with an incredible starting rotation coming off a disappointing exit to the postseason last year and this will be the overwhelming favorite to not only win the NL East and the NL, but the World Series. The pitching staff has a lot of miles on it, however so injuries could be a factor this season and there are big questions in the bullpen as well as with an aging offense. Atlanta appears to be the only team that can realistically make a run at this division title if veteran starters Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson can be healthy and effective and there is a lot of young talent in the lineup. Atlanta lacks a proven closer, but overall the bullpen looks like it is good shape to start the first year of the post Bobby Cox era. Florida should again be a competitive team and the Marlins rotation has a high ceiling with the addition of Javier Vazquez, but on offense there is not as much potential as the other teams in this division. The Mets have very little stability in the rotation but in a favorable ballpark the starting pitching may be better than most expect, even if Johan Santana is shelved for much of the season. The Mets have a few big names on offense, but not enough potential for consistent production. Washington made a bit of a splash in the off season with a couple of additions, but in the health and development of young pitching will make or break or the season. Washington will be competitive and could have its most wins since 2007.
BEST BET - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES UNDER 96.5: The offense is going to have issues with Chase Utley and Domonic Brown already fighting injuries plus the age of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez is a legitimate concern. The bullpen will likely blow some leads and betting against the extreme is where the value is as Philadelphia's rotation likely runs into more problems than most expect this season, even though this team should win the NL East.
NL CENTRAL
Many saw the Reds as one-year fluke last season, winning the division in a down year for the NL Central. Cincinnati's young offense should again be productive even if Joey Votto does not have a repeat MVP season and the pitching staff for the Reds is more than capable. The Reds will have a full season with Edinson Volquez and among Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Homer Bailey the Reds should find capable #4 & #5 starters. Milwaukee made a lot of noise in the offseason, but Zack Greinke will start the year on the DL and banking on Chris Narveson and an often-injured Shaun Marcum could leave this rotation a bit thin. The bullpen had major issues early last year before coming together behind John Axford and the Brewers will face a lot of pressure with the organization putting some money out for a winner. If things do not go well early, don't be surprised if the Brewers ship off some key pieces. St. Louis is still a threat in this division even with Adam Wainwright's major injury. The Cardinals always seem to find a pitcher to step up as Jaime Garcia did last season. Lance Berkman adds a bat in the lineup, but whether he can play everyday in the outfield is a concern. The Cubs added Matt Garza to the rotation, but the lineup has a less than viable mix of underperforming veterans and unproven young players. Houston could be a bit of a surprise with a better rotation than most people expect. This team will struggle on offense, but there is a lot of speed and some upside. The Pirates actually will have an offense that can compete in this division with Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker likely headed for breakout years. Pitching will again be the downfall and there will be a lot of pressure on a young staff in an offense-oriented ballpark.
BEST BET - CINCINNATI REDS OVER 85.5: The Reds pitching staff is coming under some scrutiny and in that ballpark it will be tough to have lights out numbers, but it was an effective staff last season that has enough potential to improve. This looks like the most complete offense in the division and the Reds were one of only four teams in the NL with a winning road record last season despite being considered a team that is built on success at home.
NL WEST
The NL West was very competitive last season with the top four teams all winning at least 80 games. Pitching is paramount in this division and the Giants and Padres should again lead the way with the best starting staffs. San Francisco lost a few key pieces on offense and there was a lot of mileage on this young rotation last season which could come into play this season. The Dodgers may be a surprise team this season as Los Angeles has an underrated pitching staff and the offense has enough talent with a few key additions to be perhaps the best in this division even after a down 2010. Colorado got a career year from Ubaldo Jimenez last season, but the Rockies faded late in the season and there may not be enough depth on the staff to last a whole season. The Rockies have a good lineup, but Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki may have trouble matching great 2010 seasons. San Diego was a great story last season, but the offense without Adrian Gonzalez will take a step back. The Padres signed a lot veteran players cast aside by other clubs and unfortunately there may be good reason that those players were not retained. Arizona looks very young both on the pitching staff and the lineup. It won't take a lot for the Diamondbacks to improve on the past two seasons, but in this tough division it will be tough to make a big move with a four quality teams in the division and the least experienced pitching staff.
BEST BET - COLORADO ROCKIES UNDER 86.5: The Rockies were a better team that the record indicated last season as they lost the final eight games of the season on a horrible late season slide. Overall, the rotation will not likely be able to compete in this division. Jimenez had a huge workload last season to deliver a career year and the contributions from Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel may be difficult to replicate. There is not much to fall back on if there is an injury on the starting staff.
AL EAST
Boston made the biggest moves in the offseason with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and if healthy this could be the best offense in the game. The Red Sox were rarely healthy last season and even if the offense delivers, the starting rotation is banking on the health of three high-mileage veterans that have battled recent injures and a closer that has had many ups and downs. Don't discount the impact of a new catcher as well with Jarrod Saltalamacchia moving in, a highly-touted prospect that has not really panned out and has been considered a defensive liability. It was a rather quiet winter in New York minus the Derek Jeter signing saga. The offense is another year older and bigger name additions of Andruw Jones and Russell Martin are not likely to be big impact moves. The Yankees were not able to upgrade their pitching staff and could pay the price in this division of great offenses. The Rays are projected for a move back to the middle of this division, but the rotation should be excellent and the offense can still compete. Most seem to believe that Toronto overachieved last season, but there is a lot of power in the lineup and while the rotation is very young there is talent and a solid bullpen has been pieced together. Baltimore is an intriguing team after the instant improvement the club made with Buck Showalter. The Orioles made several moves to upgrade the offense, but ultimately is putting a lot faith in a few veteran players that had disappointing 2010 seasons. The pitching staff will get beat up in this division and while improvement is likely there is a lot of ground to make up.
BEST BET - TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER 84.5: Don't sleep on the Rays with this number projecting a 12-win decline from last season with the team that had the best record in the AL. A few big names are gone, but the offensive numbers are not likely to drop significantly and this should be the best starting rotation in this division. There has been significant turnover in the bullpen, but Tampa Bay has done a very good job at developing young relievers and finding gems on the free agent market.
AL CENTRAL
The Twins saw another familiar exit from playoffs last season, but with a 94-68 record, Minnesota was very successful despite battling a lot of injuries and having a 'down' year from Joe Mauer. Minnesota has depth in its starting rotation despite lacking a true ace, but the bullpen let several key pieces depart in the offseason. Chicago could a have a scary rotation if Jake Peavy ever returns to form, but that appears less and less likely. The White Sox also have bullpen questions but this is a formidable lineup that added Adam Dunn as a serious threat at DH. Detroit has been competitive the last two years, but has not made up enough ground in this division. Detroit's pitching has some upside potential, but Brad Penny and Phil Coke will be experiments. Victor Martinez is a dangerous bat back in the AL Central and the Tigers have some stability in the bullpen that few teams have. Cleveland has plenty of young talent, but the Indians were one of the most disappointing teams in the league last year, failing to compete from the get-go. The pitching staff is short on experience especially in the rotation, but if a few young arms develop this team may be respectable. The Royals are in familiar territory of having let go of a star player and starting fresh with youth and less than desirable veterans, many of which are coming off major injuries. There were a few bright spots for the Royals last season and this is a team with a decent shot to improve and a have a season more reminiscent of the 2008 season. However the Royals are always a threat to ship away its productive pieces mid-season.
BEST BET - DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 83.5: The Tigers nearly won the division in 2009 and were much more competitive than most expected last season but outside of Justin Verlander the pitching staff is filled with question marks. Max Scherzer pitched great in stretches last season, but Rick Porcello took a big step back. Several relievers return, but the bullpen lacks a proven closer and early spring distractions have not helped the cause.
AL WEST
Texas should continue to have very good pitching this season even without Cliff Lee as there are many quality starting options and a wildcard with Brandon Webb possibly taking the mound. The bullpen was a strong point for the Rangers last season and this lineup will still be far and away the best in the division. Adrian Beltre is a nice addition to boost the team on offense and defense and Mike Napoli provides some punch behind the plate. Oakland could have a very strong rotation with Trevor Cahill coming off a great season and a healthy Brett Anderson available. The A's made a few upgrades on offense so this is a sleeper team in the AL as the Rangers are certainly not a lock to repeat in the West. The Angels look to bounce back from a tough 2010 season after a great run of success, but the pitching is not as good as it might look on paper and injuries have already been mounting this spring. This is an offense that could really struggle to compete even with a few big names in the lineup. Seattle added a few bats to the lineup after a disastrous 2010 season and a new era for the Mariners begins. This team has no where to go but up and the pitching on this team has a lot of potential. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year, but with a little more support he could carry this team and the young rotation actually started to show progress last season despite the record. Erik Bedard is also a threat to emerge at some point.
BEST BET - SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 69.5: The Mariners were horrible last season but injuries and foolish personnel moves played a big role in a poor start to the season that just snowballed. Eric Wedge is a good manager that should get more out of this team and the young rotation should find more success in a division that lacks a lot of big bats.
Comment