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**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:41 PM

NBA Betting: Trail Blazers battle Durant, Thunder

The Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder both made moves to try to improve their interior games at the NBA trade deadline. These two Northwest Division rivals meet for the final time in the regular season on Friday in NBA betting action from the Rose Garden (7:00 p.m. PT).

Oklahoma City knows that it is pretty much destined to be the No. 4 seed in the postseason. The Thunder already have 24 losses on the season, and there are just eight games in which they can either make up some ground on the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the playoffs.

Odds are that's not enough time to either do that or to fall behind the Denver Nuggets, which will likely set up an Oklahoma City/Denver tussle in the first round of the playoffs.

The Thunder are now at full strength for legitimately just the first time since the trade deadline. Kendrick Perkins has only been in the lineup for nine games, and since he has gotten in the fold, the team is 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 against the NBA odds.

The former Boston Celtics big man has averaged 6.0 PPG and 7.7 RPG since coming over to OKC, but his 13 points scored in the team's most recent win might be a sign that things are changing for the big man.

Of course, there are always Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to talk about when you're analyzing the NBA betting odds in Thunder games. These two just continue to light it up on a regular basis, as they're good for 22.0 and 27.8 PPG respectively. Durant is out to win another NBA scoring title this season, something that he should do with ease considering the fact that he is 1.2 PPG ahead of LeBron James of the Miami Heat.

Portland knows that it should be okay for a spot in the postseason, but nothing is for certain quite yet. There are only four games separating the Blazers and the surging Houston Rockets, who are ninth in the Western Conference standings. Three more wins really should be enough for the Blazers to make it into the second season.

Trail Blazers newcomer Gerald Wallace is getting into the fold with his new squad. The move to get Wallace gives this squad another wing player to help out LaMarcus Aldridge on the inside. Of course, the knee injuries to Brandon Roy really haven't helped this team out any. Wallace is now averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.8 RPG, but he is also contributing a pair of steals per night as well.

Portland is a well-rounded team with six players averaging at least 12 points per game. Don't forget about Rudy Fernandez either. Though he is only putting up 8.7 PPG, he can go off for 25 points if he catches fire from beyond the arc.

The Thunder are only 3-7 ATS over the course of the last 10 meetings in this series, but they are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 overall. These teams have already met three times this season, and OKC has figured out how to win all three games outright. The Blazers only have one cover in a 110-108 loss to the Thunder on the road in November.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:42 PM

MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros, Phillies lock horns

Both the Phillies and Astros enter the season with several key injuries.
Philadelphia is the team to beat on paper entering the 2011 season. On the field, however, the Phillies are starting the campaign on the wrong foot, hand, shoulder and knee according to the latest list of walking wounded.

So are their opponents in Friday's season opener, the Houston Astros.

The two National League clubs will be at Citizen's Bank Park in Philly for a 10:05 a.m. (PT) first pitch on ESPN, assuming the weather cooperates. Charlie Manuel gives the ball to last year's NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay to get things rolling, with Brad Mills sending former Phillie Brett Myers to the mound for Houston.

The Phillies will open play with second baseman Chase Utley (knee injury), rookie outfielder Domonic Brown (hand) and closer RP Brad Lidge (shoulder) on the DL. There has been no timetable set for Utley's return, while Brown could return by mid-to-late April after surgery on a broken bone in his right hand. He was expected to take over in right this year for Jayson Werth who bolted for Washington via free agency on the Scott Boras Express.

Lidge's sore shoulder has turned into a torn rotator cuff. He's out at least through mid-June, and could miss the entire season. Veteran Jose Contreras, who turned 39 this offseason, is expected to get the majority of the save opportunities while Lidge is out.

Houston also suffered several bad bites from the spring injury bug, first losing starting catcher Jason Castro (knee) for the season. Clint Barmes, acquired from Colorado during the winter, was plunked on the left hand by the Yankees' Ivan Nova during a recent exhibition game and will likely miss all of April. Angel Sanchez will take Barmes' place at short.

In his final Grapefruit League start before the season, lefty J.A. Happ suffered a strained oblique and is not expected to answer the call in Sunday's series finale against his former club who dealt him to get Roy Oswalt last July. No official word yet on who might take his place in the rotation though Ryan Rowland-Smith is a very likely candidate.

But enough about the players that won't be part of Friday's action.

Halladay certainly made an impression in his first NL season after 12 years with Toronto in the American League. From a perfect game in late-May versus Florida to the no-hitter against Cincinnati in the NLDS, he was as dominant and consistent a pitcher as you could find.

The Phils were 22-11 in his 33 regular seasons starts, 2-1 in the postseason. In front of the home fans with Halladay on the hill, Philly was 14-6 including a pair of postseason starts. One of those six defeats came to these Astros in late-August, 3-2, long balls from Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn doing the damage.

Myers was also incredibly consistent for Houston in 2010, his first with the Astros after spending eight campaigns with the Phillies. The former first-round pick lasted at least six innings in 32 of his 33 assignments, the one exception his final start of the season when he worked 5-2/3 innings.

His lone start versus the Phillies in 2010 came in August, another 3-2 Houston victory thanks to a late 2-run single by Carlos Lee. The Astros were 20-13 overall in his 33 starts while Myers fashioned a 3.14 ERA and worked the fifth-most innings in the NL (223-2/3).

Myers' last two seasons with Philadelphia saw him make 19 starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils only won six of those outings despite Myers posting a respectable 3.42 ERA in a park known as hitter-friendly.

The two clubs took turns pulling off road sweeps against each other in 2010. Bettors who got on board for all four of Houston's wins in Philly last August are probably still counting their money after the 'Stros won the games as 165, 240, 310 and 155 underdogs on the MLB money line. That was payback and then some for the Phils' early-April sweep in Houston that was capped by Halladay besting Oswalt in a 2-1 duel.

After all of the talk about the Phillies pitchers this winter, Mother Nature might actually throw the first curveball of their season. The current forecast calls for chilly conditions, a 50 percent chance of a rain/snow mix on Friday and an afternoon high at 50ºF. Saturday's weather should be dryer, but not much warmer.

A battle of southpaws is expected in Game 2 of the series. Cliff Lee is slated for the Phils against Houston's Wandy Rodriguez. Game 3 was to have been the Happ-Oswalt battle, but Happ has been scratched.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:43 PM

MLB Odds: Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers may be the defending American League champion, but it’s the Boston Red Sox generating the most buzz from the Junior Circuit.

ESPN will have Friday’s season opener for both squads at 1:05 p.m. (PT) from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The Don Best odds screen has Boston at around 120 road favorites with a total of 8 ½-runs.

Bookmaker.com has Boston (plus 170) as the solid favorite to win the AL, with the Yankees and Rangers next at plus 350 each. The Red Sox are plus 320 to win the World Series, only trailing Philadelphia (plus 220). The Rangers are plus 625.

The Red Sox went 89-73 last year, good for only third in the AL East behind Tampa Bay (96-66) and the Yankees (95-67). Injuries were a big reason for Boston’s struggles with Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury all missing huge chunks of the season.

All three of those guys are healthy now and Boston made two huge acquisitions in Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford and San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Boston’s lineup has speed, power and on-base capability, and should battle the Yanks for most runs scored in the league.

The starting staff has issues with John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka all question marks despite their high salaries. However, one guy who few people are questioning is Friday’s starter Jon Lester.

Lester developed into the ace of the staff last year (19-9, 3.25 ERA). That’s despite another slow April start of 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA. He also went 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in April 2009.

The 27-year-old lefty pitched better on the road (11-4, 2.88 ERA) last year than at Fenway Park (8-5, 3.67 ERA). He pitched eight scoreless innings at Texas in August, getting a 3-1 win against Colby Lewis.

Lester is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two lifetime starts in Texas.

Lester’s only other game against Texas last year was in Boston in July. Friday’s opposing pitcher C.J. Wilson got the win by allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings. Lester got the tough 4-2 loss by surrendering three runs over eight.

The Rangers won the AL West last year (90-72) and proceeded to dispatch both the Yankees and Tampa Bay to make their first World Series in franchise history. A 4-1 series loss to the Giants dimmed matters some and so did some offseason defections.

Lefty Cliff Lee decided to join the All-Star starting staff of the Philadelphia Phillies. Lee wasn’t great (4-6, 3.98 ERA) after coming over from Seattle in July, but gave a big boost in the playoffs (3-2, 2.78 ERA). There was talk about moving closer Neftali Feliz into the rotation to help fill the void, but he’ll stay in the pen with his 40 saves.

Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) is the de-facto ace with Lee gone and there are big questions at the back-end of the rotation. He allowed just a .217 batting average last year and .622 OPS. That far exceeded expectations after being exclusively in the pen from 2006-2009.

The 30-year-old lefty has to prove he’s not a ‘one-year wonder,’ but he does have the quality stuff to succeed again. Wilson was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA at home last year. His ERA was much lower away (2.91), but only translated into a 4-5 mark.

Wilson beat Lester in Boston last year as mentioned above. He was 3-0 with a .86 ERA against the Sox last year overall, allowing one run over 7 2/3 innings in his one home start. Boston’s lineup does have a potential problem spot with five of the top seven hitters left-handed. Starting off against a tough lefty like Wilson is a big test.

Texas had a major home field advantage last year at 51-30, compared to 39-42 away. The offense had a lot to do with that, averaging a run more there (5.31) than on the road (4.42).

Boston has traditionally struggled in Texas, going 1-2 last year and 1-5 in 2009.

Boston is not reporting any significant injuries. Texas starter Tommy Hunter (groin) begins the year on the DL. Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre (calf) is healthy and will face his old teammates after playing great for Boston as an impending free agent last year (28 HRs, 102 RBIs).

Weather should be clear and warm in the upper 80s. This three-game series continues Saturday night with Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA) facing Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:44 PM

NHL Odds: Blues host fading Flames

Calgary is 19-7 in the last 26 series meetings against the Blues.
One more loss could serve as the final gust of wind to douse the Flames’ flickering playoff hopes. Calgary will try to avoid that fate Friday when it travels to St. Louis to play a Blues team that is coming off Wednesday’s 10-goal performance. The puck drops at 5 p.m. (PT).

Calgary’s postseason hopes took another hit Wednesday when the club dropped a 4-2 decision against Anaheim as a 125 home favorite.The loss left the Flames with 87 points, three points behind Chicago for the Western Conference’s eighth and final playoff spot. The Blackhawks have also played three fewer games than the Flames.

The combined six goals slithered above the 5 ½-goal closing total, leaving the ‘over’ 7-1 in Calgary’s last eight games and 42-32-2 overall.

Jarome Iginla scored his 37th goal in a losing effort, while Matt Stajan had a potential tying goal disallowed with just over five minutes remaining in the third period.

Mikka Kiprusoff stopped 18-of-21 shots and saw his record slip to 34-24-2-4. Kiprusoff, who has now allowed 10 first-period goals in his last five starts, has a 2.69 GAA, a .904 save percentage and six shutouts.

The Flames have now allowed three goals or more in eight of their last 10 contests and four goals or more in six of their last eight. The barrage has lowered Calgary to 19th defensively, allowing an average of 2.9 GPG.

St. Louis is just playing out the string this season, but a loose club is very dangerous to one that has playoff aspirations. Just ask the Detroit Red Wings.

The Blues are off Wednesday’s 10-3 shelling of the Wings as hefty 205 road underdogs. The combined 13 goals soared above the 5 ½-goal closing total. The ‘over’ is 10-4 in the Blues’ last 14 home dates.

Vladimir Sobotka and Chris Stewart collected a goal and two assists apiece for a Blues team that is 3-0-1 in its last four games. B.J. Crombeen, Cam Janssen, Roman Polak, Patrik Berglund and Matt D’Agostini added a goal and an assist apiece. St. Louis received at least one point from 15 players.

Jaroslav Halak made 41 saves for the win to raise his ledger to 24-20-3-4. The former Montreal netminder has a 2.57 GAA, a .908 save percentage and six shutouts.

Calgary is 19-7 in the last 26 series meetings against the Blues, including winning all three matchups this season.

The first meeting this season (Jan. 26) saw the Flames register a 4-1 victory as 125 home favorites, with the combined five goals dipping ‘under’ the 5 ½-goal closing total.

A little more than one month later (Feb. 27), the Flames blanked the Blues 1-0 as 150 home favorites, with the game again staying ‘under’ the 5 ½-goal total.

The most recent meeting (March 1) saw the Flames again blank the Blues, but this time it was a 6-0 shellacking as a 105 road underdog. This was the lone game to go ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal closing total.

The Blues have outshot the Flames during the three contests, 81-69, but have not scored a power play goal in seven opportunities. Conversely, the Flames are 4-for-11 with the man advantage in the three meetings.

St. Louis hits the road Sunday for a contest against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Calgary travels to Colorado for a Sunday encounter with the Avs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:56 PM

Friday, April 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 1:05 PM ET Philadelphia -250 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

Pittsburgh - 2:20 PM ET Pittsburgh +161 500
Chi. Cubs -

Chi. White Sox - 3:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -101 500
Cleveland - Under 8 500

Boston - 4:05 PM ET Boston -118 500
Texas - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 4:10 PM ET Colorado -190 500
Colorado - Under 8.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 11:58 PM

Friday Tips

March 31, 2011

The Major League Baseball season is underway following Thursday's six-pack of games as the Friday card unveils 11 matchups. The American League card is loaded with six games as the Yankees and Tigers will be the only teams not participating on Friday. The Rays try to move forward after several key offseason departures as Tampa Bay hosts re-tooled Baltimore, while the Rangers start their defense of the AL pennant against the Red Sox. We'll start in northern Ohio with the Indians looking to knock off the upstart White Sox.

White Sox at Indians - 3:05 PM EST

These AL Central rivals start the April action in the junior circuit as Chicago attempts to return to the postseason for the first time since winning the division in 2008. The Indians try to bounce back from a 69-win campaign in 2010, while going for their first .500 season in four years. The key for Cleveland is its ace keeping up a fantastic run against Chicago.

The Tribe was 3-0 in Fausto Carmona's three outings against the Sox last season, while delivering a quality start each time. Carmona beat Chicago last April in the opening series of the season with one of the odder lines in recent memory by allowing one hit in six innings, but walking six and giving up three runs in a 5-3 win. The right-hander received an average of only three runs support in his 19 starts at Progressive Field, while hitting the 'under' 13 times.

Mark Buehrle takes the mound for the Sox, as he looks to duplicate his success against the Indians from last season. Chicago was 5-1 in the southpaw's six starts in this series in 2010, even though Buehrle was ejected from a May 26 game after arguing a balk call. Buehrle tossed a gem in last season's opener against the Indians, pitching seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 shutout. His numbers weren't so stellar on the highway with a 6-8 mark away from U.S. Cellular Field, while yielding 11 home runs on the road.

Red Sox at Rangers - 4:05 PM EST

Boston looks to be the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series this October, but first the Red Sox have to get past the team holding the crown. The Rangers' surge to the franchise's first-ever World Series last season brings plenty of confidence into this season, as Texas looks to move forward after Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero departed in free agency.

The Sox send out star lefty Jon Lester to open the season, trying to capitalize off a career-best 19 wins in 2010. Lester dominated away from Fenway Park with an 11-4 record and 2.88 ERA, including a 6-1 mark in his final seven road starts. Boston is 5-1 in Lester's last six outings against Texas since 2008, as the southpaw tossed eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball in a 3-1 victory in Arlington last August.

With Lee's short stay in Texas now finished, C.J. Wilson is the new ace of this Rangers' staff. The left-hander silenced the Red Sox in three starts last season by allowing two earned runs and striking out 20 in three victories. Wilson picked up a pair of underdog victories at Fenway Park, including a win over Lester on August 18 in a 4-2 triumph.

The Rangers grabbed six of 10 meetings last season from the Red Sox, while going 2-1 in Arlington in mid-August. Since 2009, Texas is 7-2 in nine home matchups with Boston, as the 'under' has cashed six times.

Orioles at Rays - 7:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay is coming off its second division title in three seasons as the Rays battle the Orioles at Tropicana Field. The Rays have moved forward with the signings of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, while losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Orioles have plenty of old faces wearing the Black and Orange with Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Vladimir Guerrero with the team this season.

Baltimore played extremely well over the final two months of last season after Buck Showalter took over as manager, compiling a 34-23 record. Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound for the O's, coming off an 11-14 campaign in 2010, even though the righty finished with a 3.83 ERA. The Orioles were 5-11 in Guthrie's 16 road starts, while he pitched one of his best games of the season at the Trop with a 5-0 shutout of the Rays on August 13.

David Price comes off his best season in his short career with a 19-6 record, while narrowly missing out on the AL Cy Young Award. The Rays' southpaw put together a 2.26 ERA at home last season, as Price went 9-4 at Tropicana Field. Price handled his business against the Orioles in 2010 with two victories in two starts, while allowing just one earned run in 15 innings of work.

Tampa Bay won 11 of 18 meetings last season, even though Baltimore found a way to win four of nine games at Tropicana Field. One angle to consider is the 'under,' which cashed in eight of nine matchups at Tampa Bay last season.

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**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:37 PM

Thunder look to sweep Blazers

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (50-24)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (43-32)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -2.5, Total: 190.5

The Thunder have been getting the better of Portland all season, but the Blazers get a chance to avoid the season sweep at home on Friday night.

The teams met on Sunday in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder pretty much controlling the game thanks to superior shooting. The Blazers attacked to the point that they drew 26 fouls while committing only 16, but Portland shot only 2-for-12 from three and 18-for-24 from the line, while the Thunder were 9-of-24 from behind the arc and 26-for-29 at the FT line in a 99-90 Oklahoma City win.

Gerald Wallace was a stud in that game. Portland’s forward went for 40 points on 16-of-28 shooting from the field. But he got his bell rung in Wednesday night’s loss to New Orleans, getting hit so hard on a pick that he didn’t come out with the team in the second half. He eventually returned to the game, but may be going at less than 100 percent Friday night.

Portland is once again playing well at the Rose Garden. The Blazers have won six in a row SU and five of six ATS. However, it should be noted that four of those wins came against Eastern Conference foes (Washington, Charlotte, Cleveland and Philadelphia) and they beat a Tim Duncan-less San Antonio team by only two last Friday night.

Meanwhile, the Thunder have been true road warriors of late. They went 6-1 SU and ATS on the road in March, including an impressive 11-point win in Miami on March 16. They went to Phoenix on Wednesday night and pounded the Suns, 116-98. Oklahoma City shot 53.8% from the field in that game, and their bench, led by James Harden (22 points on 7-of-9 FG in Phoenix) continued to give them an edge. Key members of Oklahoma City’s bench put up big plus/minus numbers in March: Harden (+9.1 per game) and Nick Collison (+8.9). The Blazers’ key reserves -- Marcus Camby (+2.8 in eight games off the bench), Rudy Fernandez (+1.1), Brandon Roy (+0.9) -- haven’t been nearly as effective.

Their last meeting in Portland was a thriller, with the Thunder mounting a fourth-quarter comeback and Serge Ibaka tipping in a miss with 10 seconds left to force overtime. Oklahoma City went on to win 107-106 in OT.

I’m expecting this one to be similarly close, but based on their recent road play, I suspect that Oklahoma City will complete the season sweep. The FoxSheets are a bit conflicted on this one, but they do have a couple of trends working in the Thunder’s favor, including:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-29 ATS (60.3%, +12.1 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.6, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*).

Seven of the past 11 series meetings have finished Under the total and this FoxSheets trend also expects the Under to occur on Friday night.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - vs. division opponents, off a road win. (35-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +19.6 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:38 PM

Trending: NBA in April

April is here, and while some are already acting like April fools, we get you ready to finish the regular season strong with our final installment of our monthly ATS breakdown. To uncover recent monthly trends, we compiled all ATS records each month starting in the 2006-07 season. Below is what we found for all NBA teams in April, and what results you can expect to happen in the final month of this season based on the upcoming schedule.

Best ATS Records in April (2007-2010)
1. Orlando 62% (21-13)
2. Phoenix 61% (20-13)
3. Detroit 60% (21-14)
4. Chicago 58% (18-13)
5. Portland 58% (22-16)
6. New Orleans 58% (19-14)
Orlando is the April leader with three winning months in the four-year study. The Magic were an impressive 7-1 ATS (88%) last April and 13-6 ATS (68%) after March 1 last season. This season, all seven games for the final month are against Eastern Conference foes. This doesn’t bode well for Orlando, considering its 17-27 ATS (39%) mark when playing within its conference this season. The Magic could also be favored in all seven contests, but they are only 28-37 ATS (43%) when favored this season.

Phoenix has been consistently excellent with four straight April months of exactly five ATS wins. The Suns are 10-5 ATS (67%) in the past two Aprils, and last season they went 23-9 ATS (72%) in the final three months. After Phoenix hosts the Clippers on April 1, it will embark on a five-game road trip, which includes three of the NBA’s elite teams in San Antonio, Chicago and Dallas. The good news is that the Suns are 15-10 ATS (60%) as a road underdog and 19-15 ATS (56%) in all road games this season.

Detroit’s inclusion on this list was surprising considering its subpar ATS records in January (23-35), February (20-27) and March (30-34). The Pistons have had three excellent concluding months in the past four years (6-4 in 2007, 7-2 in 2008 and 6-2 in 2010). This April, the Pistons will play all Eastern Conference teams for their eight contests. Considering they are 28-16 ATS (64%) against their conference foes this season, Detroit is poised for another monster betting month.

Worst ATS Records in April (2007-2010)
30. Minnesota 35% (12-22)
29. Charlotte 36% (12-21)
28. L.A. Clippers 38% (12-20)
27. Oklahoma City 42% (14-19)
26. Milwaukee 43% (15-20)
24t. Atlanta 43% (13-17)
24t. Utah 43% (13-17)
Minnesota hasn’t had much to play for in recent Aprils, which helps explain its league-worst 35% ATS success rate. The Wolves have declined in each of the final four months of the season from 2007-2010, winning 54% ATS in January, 42% in February, 37% in March and 35% in April. This season, the Wolves enter the final month with eight straight SU defeats, but they have covered the spread in half of those games. Minnesota is 9-15 ATS as a home underdog this season, and it will be a home dog three times this month when Miami, Phoenix and Houston come to town.

Charlotte has posted back-to-back ATS records of 2-6 (25%) in the month of April, but the Bobcats are on a roll with four straight SU victories (3-1 ATS) to close out March. They will finish the season with eight conference opponents in April, which could be a good thing based on their 23-21 ATS mark (52%) versus the East this season. Charlotte, which is a dreadful 7-13 ATS (35%) on zero day’s rest, will play two back-to-back games in the final month.

L.A. Clippers have not had one collective winning month in our four-year study, but they were 4-3 ATS in April 2010. They will be hard-pressed to post another winning April with a brutal seven-game schedule featuring seven opponents fighting for playoff position (2 Memphis, 2 Oklahoma City, 1 Phoenix, 1 Dallas and 1 Houston). L.A. will most certainly be underdogs in all seven April games, and it is only 21-25 ATS (46%) as an underdog this season.

Below are the rest of the April ATS records.

Other ATS Records in April (2007-2010)
50% or Better ATS Records
7. Boston 56% (19-15)
8. Denver 55% (18-15)
9t. Memphis 53% (17-15)
9t. New Jersey 53% (17-15)
11t. Dallas 52% (16-15)
11t. Houston 52% (16-15)
13t. Miami 52% (17-16)
13t. San Antonio 52% (17-16)
15t. Golden State 50% (17-17)
15t. Sacramento 50% (17-17)
15t. Washington 50% (17-17)

Losing ATS Records
18t. L.A. Lakers 48% (16-17)
18t. New York 48% (16-17)
20. Philadelphia 48% (15-16)
21. Toronto 47% (16-18)
22. Indiana 47% (15-17)
23. Cleveland 45% (15-18)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:39 PM

New-look A's seek win over Mariners

SEATTLE MARINERS (0-0)

at OAKLAND ATHLETICS (0-0)

First pitch: Friday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -115, Seattle +105
Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez will face Trevor Cahill when Seattle visits Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on Friday night in its season opener.

Hernandez was 13-12 last season with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts in 249.2 innings. He also had a 1.06 WHIP, six complete games and one shutout. The right-hander was just 5-8 on the road, but that's certainly deceiving since he still had a stellar 2.46 ERA in 18 road starts. Hernandez had three starts versus Oakland in 2010 and got one decision, despite a sparkling 2.61 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he punched out 23 A's hitters and allowed six earned runs. He threw eight shutout innings with 13 K in a 2-0 victory last August in Seattle. In his two no-decisions at Oakland last April and May, he allowed six total runs in 12.2 IP. Hernandez has a career mark of 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA against the Athletics in 17 starts.

In hopes of supporting their ace and the entire starting staff with more runs (the Mariners were 30th in the majors with 513 runs scored in 2010 and 30th in BA at .236), Seattle signed former A's designated hitter Jack Cust (.272 BA, 13 HR, 52 RBI, .395 OBP). The Mariners will be without closer David Aardsma (31 saves, 3.44 ERA), who is recovering from offseason hip surgery, and center fielder Franklin Gutierrez (.245 BA, 12 HR, 64 RBI), who is on the disabled list with a digestive tract issue.

Cahill finished last season with an 18-8 record, 2.97 ERA, one complete game and one shutout. He also had a 1.11 WHIP with 118 strikeouts in 196.2 innings. The right-hander faced the Mariners once in 2010 and pitched seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in a 9-0 victory last Oct. 1 in Seattle. That was his only win in his career against the Mariners, whom he is 1-3 lifetime in five starts with a 2.93 ERA.Cahill also dominated at home in 2010 to the tune of an 11-3 mark and 2.18 ERA in 15 starts. Like Seattle, Oakland is hoping to support its strong, young rotation with an improved offense. The A's ranked 23rd in runs scored with 663 and 26th in slugging percentage (.378), and added Josh Willingham (.268, 15 HR, 66 RBI, .389 OBP, .459 SLG), David DeJesus (.318, 46 runs, 37 RBIs, .384 OBP) and Hideki Matsui to their lineup (.274, 21 HR, 84 RBI) in the offseason.

Seattle and Oakland met 18 times last season, and the Athletics went 13-5 against the Mariners. Seattle was just 1-7 at Oakland in 2010. Despite the presence of King Felix, newly-improved Oakland should win a low-scoring game on Friday night. These two FoxSheets trends also show some support for the Athletics.

SEATTLE is 17-40 (29.8%, -23.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 2.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*).

TREVOR CAHILL is 15-6 (71.4%, +10.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was CAHILL 4.7, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:40 PM

Jazz to start Fesenko against Lakers

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) - Reserve Kyrylo Fesenko will make only his third career start and first of the season Friday night when the Utah Jazz face the Los Angeles Lakers.

A loss to the Lakers (54-20) officially eliminates the Jazz (36-39) from the playoffs and would make them the first team in history to start 15-5 and 27-13 and not qualify for postseason play, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

The Jazz already have ruled out starters Andrei Kirilenko, Raja Bell and Devin Harris because of assorted leg injures as well as reserve guard Ronnie Price.

Coach Ty Corbin said he decided to start the 7-1 Fesenko because he matches up better against Andrew Bynum. Al Jefferson moves to the power forward spot and Paul Millsap to small forward, with C.J. Miles and Earl Watson starting at guard.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:42 PM

Weekly Notes - East

April 1, 2011

Western Conference
(Straight-Up, Against the Spread, Over/Under)

1) Chicago (53-19, 46-26, 30-42)

Weekly Recap: The Bulls have built a two-game lead for the top spot in the Eastern Conference after going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS last week. Chicago's offense averaged 110 points per game over this span, which helped the 'over' go 4-0. Since the All-Star break, the club has gone 15-3.

Weekly Outlook: Four more games this week for Chicago and it looks like four wins at least on paper. Philadelphia visits on zero days rest Monday and then Toronto will come to the Windy City on Saturday. Sandwiched between the home games will be road games at Minnesota and Detroit.

2) Boston (51-21, 33-37-2, 32-39)

Weekly Recap: Where is the offense in Boston? The Celtics have been held under 100 points in 11 of their last 12, including 10 straight affairs. It's hurting the club and it was evident last week as Doc Rivers' team went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Fortunately, the defense has also held 11 of their last 12 opponents under the century mark. When you combined bad offense and good defense, you get a 10-0 'under' run.

Weekly Outlook: Boston starts the week with three straight on the road against Indiana, San Antonio and Atlanta. The game versus the Hawks will be on zero days rest. Following the road trip, the Celtics catch Detroit on Sunday, which could be a flat spot. Point guard Rajon Rondo (finger) has missed the last two games and is still day-to-day.

3) Miami (51-22, 33-39-1, 38-34-1)

Weekly Recap: The Heat's five-game losing streak looks like a thing of the past as the team has won eight of nine and five in a row heading into this week. The solution was simple - score points. In the recent eight victories, the team busted the century mark in seven of the games. Despite the wins, the team is still just a pedestrian 2-3 against the spread in the last five.

Weekly Outlook: Miami has its last true road trip of the season on tap, if you want to call it that. We say that because the Heat will be favored in all four affairs against the Cavs, Wizards, Timberwolves and Nets. The game against Washington will be a back-to-back situation.

4) Orlando (47-26, 30-40-3, 28-41-4)

Weekly Recap: The Magic extended their winning streak to five games last week with a 3-0 record. Unfortunately gamblers riding this team on the point-spread have watched them go 1-4 ATS during this run. Orlando is penciled into the fourth spot and it's doubtful to see them move up or down at this time. Total players should make a note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 in the last seven games.

Weekly Outlook: Orlando has four games on tap, including a make-up game against New York from Madison Square Garden. The Magic also have road tilts at Atlanta and at Toronto as well. In between those two will be a home battle against Charlotte. All of the games will be separated by a day of rest.

5) Atlanta (42-32, 34-40, 32-42)

Weekly Recap: The Hawks started the week with two losses but rebounded with a pair of wins, both coming in double-digit fashion. The defense looked great in the victories albeit against the Nets (98-87) and Cavaliers (99-83). Atlanta went 3-1 ATS and the total produced a 2-2 mark.

Weekly Outlook: With less than 10 games left in the regular season, it appears that Atlanta and Orlando will meet in the first round of the playoffs. The two teams will meet this Wednesday from Philips Arena. Then, the Hawks will welcome the Celtics on Friday before traveling to Houston on Sunday.

6) Philadelphia (37-36, 43-29-1, 39-34)

Weekly Recap: The 76ers went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS last week, with the lone win coming at home to Atlanta. The 'over' cashed in all three games, as the defense surrendered 100, 111 and 114 points.

Weekly Outlook: Philadelphia started the week with an impressive 97-85 win on Monday at Chicago as an 11-point underdog. The 76ers will host Houston on Wednesday and then New Jersey on Friday. After the Nets, the team will head to Milwaukee on Saturday for a game on zero days rest.

7) New York (35-38, 40-31-2, 37-35-1)

Weekly Recap: The Knicks finally snapped their six-game losing streak on Monday with a 113-106 overtime win against Orlando. The defense is still sketchy and no matter how the season ends, it looks like New York will face Miami or Boston in the first round. The 'over' is on a 4-0 run.

Weekly Outlook: Two more games on tap for New York this week, both at home and both appear winnable. The Nets visit on Wednesday and then the Cavaliers come to MSG on Sunday. Keep in mind that Cleveland has won all three meetings against New York this season and all three have gone 'over' the number too.

8) Indiana (32-42, 33-38-3, 32-41-1)

Weekly Recap: The Pacers had a nice shot to win four games last week against teams with losing records, but they only managed to go 2-2 both SU and ATS. Double-digit setbacks to the Kings (93-110) and Pistons (88-100) were humbling, but Monday's home win over Boston (107-100) quickly erased those efforts.

Weekly Outlook: Indiana holds a one-game lead over Charlotte for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East and they own the tiebreaker as well, beating Charlotte four times this season. This week, the Pacers will also host Detroit on Wednesday and Milwaukee on Friday. A road trip to New Orleans closes the week on Sunday.

9) Charlotte (30-42, 35-35-2, 34-38)

Weekly Recap: The Bobcats still have a shot at the playoffs, but another loss to Indiana (88-111) didn't help their chances. Surprisingly, Charlotte rebounded with tight wins at Boston (83-81) and at home to New York (114-106). On Monday, the 'Cats nipped the Bucks (87-86), which pushed their current winning streak to three.

Weekly Outlook: Charlotte has three more games on tap this week and two are must-win spots at home, versus Cleveland and Washington. Sandwiched between those affairs will be a road tilt on Friday at Orlando, which should command a double-digit spread.

10) Milwaukee (29-43, 34-36-1, 27-44)

Weekly Recap: The Bucks' playoff chances might've went out the window on Monday as the team collapsed at Charlotte (86-87). Milwaukee sits three games behind Indiana for the last spot in the East and a dreadful 1-3 skid over the last four games didn't help the club's postseason push.

Weekly Outlook: Milwaukee has five of its next six on the road, including battles at Toronto and Indiana this week. After those tilts, the club will host Philadelphia on zero days rest this Saturday.

11) Detroit (26-47, 39-33-1, 38-35)

Weekly Recap: The Pistons went 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS last week, with losses coming to the Heat (94-100) and Cavaliers (91-97). The victory was at home against Indiana (100-88). The 'under' cashed in all three games.

Weekly Outlook: Detroit will look to complete home-and-home sweep over Indiana when it faces the club on the road this Wednesday. After this game, the club faces tough tests at home Friday against Chicago and then on Sunday at Boston.

12) New Jersey (23-49, 34-38, 34-37-1)

Weekly Recap: The Nets still can't find their footing lately, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last week. The team is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven and the lone win came in overtime against the hapless Cavaliers (98-94). The 'under' has gone 5-2 over this span.

Weekly Outlook: Four games for New Jersey this week, two at home and two on the road. The Rockets and Heat visit, while the games away from home will be at New York and Philadelphia.

13) Toronto (20-53, 31-40-2, 34-39)

Weekly Recap: Rough week for Toronto, who went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road. The losses came after the team stunned Oklahoma City (95-93) on the road as a 12 ½-point underdogs. The total went 2-2.

Weekly Outlook: The Raptors return home this week on Wednesday for a battle against Milwaukee. Then they close the week with a back-to-back set, starting at Chicago on Saturday before hosting Orlando on Sunday.

14) Washington (17-55, 26-46, 30-40-1)

Weekly Recap: It's hard to bet on the Wizards, who have won two games in the second-half of the season. Last week the club went 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS, giving up 111-plus points in all of the setbacks. Surprisingly, the 'under' only went 3-1.

Weekly Outlook: After finishing up the five-game West Coast trip on Monday versus Utah, the Wizards host Miami on Wednesday. Then, Cleveland visits on Friday before a quick road trip to Charlotte on Sunday.

15) Cleveland (14-58, 29-40-3, 39-33)

Weekly Recap: The Cavaliers went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last week, with the lone win coming at home against Detroit (97-91). The Cavs' offense has been held under 100 points in 11 straight games, which has helped the 'under' go 10-1 in the last 11 games.

Weekly Outlook: After hosting Miami on Tuesday, the Cavs faces the Bobcats, Wizards and Knicks on the road. The game against Charlotte on Wednesday will be on zero days rest.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:43 PM

Weekly Notes - West

Eastern Conference
(Straight-Up, Against the Spread, Over/Under)

1) San Antonio (57-16, 41-30-2, 39-34)

Weekly Recap: Things started well with a blowout win over the Warriors, but Tim Duncan suffered a ankle injury that kept him for the remainder of the week. San Antonio lost the final three games at Denver, Portland, Memphis, while all 'over' cashed in all three defeats.

Weekly Outlook: The Spurs return to the Lone Star State for all four games this week, starting with Portland with no rest on Monday. San Antonio hosts Boston in a key showdown on Thursday, followed by a quick trip to Houston on Friday. The week concludes on Sunday with a visit from the Suns.

2) L.A. Lakers (53-20, 35-37-1, 29-44)

Weekly Recap: The Lakers continued their hot streak with a 3-0 week, improving to 15-1 since the All-Star break. Los Angeles failed to cover in victories over the Suns and Clippers, while cashing in a rout of the Hornets.

Weekly Outlook: L.A. plays its final nine games against Western Conference foes as the Lakers return to the court on Friday at home against the Mavs. The Purple and Gold hosts red-hot Denver on Sunday, as the two teams have split a pair of meetings this season.

3) Dallas (52-21, 39-32-2, 41-32)

Weekly Recap: Rick Carlisle's club is breathing down the Lakers' neck to grab the second seed in the Western Conference following a 3-0 week. Dallas held off a feisty Minnesota squad at home, followed by a 94-77 drubbing of Utah as six-point road favorites. The week ended on a strong note with a 91-83 win at Phoenix, marking the fifth consecutive 'under.'

Weekly Outlook: The Mavs continue a six-game road swing with a pair of games at Staples Center against the Clippers (Wednesday) and Lakers (Thursday). Dallas has another back-to-back set to finish the trip at Golden State (Saturday) and Portland (Sunday), while trying to avenge a loss at the Rose Garden on March 15.

4) Oklahoma City (48-24, 38-33-1, 39-33)

Weekly Recap: The Thunder clinched their second straight playoff berth after knocking off the Blazers on Sunday. OKC has won three straight, while capturing nine of the last 10 games to open up a sizable lead in the Northwest Division.

Weekly Outlook: A six-game homestand wraps up for the Thunder on Tuesday against the Warriors, followed by a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday in Phoenix. Oklahoma City finishes its season series against Portland on Friday, while trying to avoid a letdown to the Clippers with no rest on Saturday.

5) Denver (44-29, 38-32-3, 35-37-1)

Weekly Recap: The Nuggets bounced back from consecutive losses in Florida to win all three games at home. Denver crushed both Toronto and Washington as substantial favorites, while holding off San Antonio for its first victory in four tries against the Spurs.

Weekly Outlook: Denver will play with four days of rest when it returns to the Pepsi Center on Wednesday against Sacramento. The two teams will shift venues on Friday to wrap up a home-and-home set, followed by a key Sunday matchup in Southern California against the Lakers.

6) Portland (42-31, 37-33-3, 34-38-1)

Weekly Recap: The Blazers continued a scorching ATS stretch throught the month of March as this team is 9-4 ATS the last 13 games. Portland dismantled Washington, followed by a buzzer-beating victory over San Antonio. The week ended on a sour note with a 99-90 setback at Oklahoma City, the third loss this season to the Thunder.

Weekly Outlook: Portland continues a three-game road swing on Monday at San Antonio, followed by a trip to New Orleans on Wednesday. The Blazers' week doesn't ease up on Friday as they return home to host the Thunder, while battling the Mavs on Sunday.

7) New Orleans (42-32, 35-37-2, 26-48)

Weekly Recap: The Hornets were dealt a devastating blow with David West's torn ACL in an overtime victory at Utah, putting the All-Star out for the rest of the season. New Orleans pulled together for an outright underdog victory at Phoenix, but the Lakers were too much for the Hornets as L.A. beat New Orleans handily at Staples Center.

Weekly Outlook: With the NCAA Tournament out of the way, the Hornets return to the Big Easy for five games, starting with Portland on Wednesday. New Orleans tries to stay in the playoff hunt as Memphis (Friday) and Indiana (Sunday) visit to conclude the week.

8) Memphis (41-33, 47-26-1, 38-36)

Weekly Recap: The Grizzles have dominated this season from an ATS standpoint by cashing in each of their last five games, while winning four times. Memphis pulled off impressive victories over Boston and San Antonio, but the Grizzlies couldn't knock off the Bulls on the road, even though Memphis covered as nine-point 'dogs.

Weekly Outlook: Memphis does very little traveling the next two weeks with six of the next seven games at home. The Grizzlies host the unrested Warriors on Wednesday, followed by a road division showdown with the Hornets on Friday. Memphis heads to Minnesota on Saturday as both clubs will be playing the second of a back-to-back.

9) Houston (38-35, 39-32-2, 38-35)

Weekly Recap: The Rockets are still scratching and clawing to get into the postseason, as Houston split a pair of games this past week. Houston routed Golden State at home for its fifth straight win, but the Rockets couldn't overcome the Big Three of the Heat in a 125-119 setback at Miami as eight-point 'dogs.

Weekly Outlook: Rick Adelman's club continues a three-game East Coast swing in New Jersey on Tuesday, followed by a trip to Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Rockets' late-season surge hopes to carry over at home against San Antonio on Friday, while Atlanta invades the Toyota Center on Sunday.

10) Phoenix (36-36, 33-36-3, 36-36)

Weekly Recap: The Suns stumbled to a 1-3 mark to further push themselves back in the playoff race. Phoenix covered in an triple-overtime thriller at the Lakers, but couldn't pull off a win in a 139-137 loss. The Suns rallied past the Raptors, while falling to the Hornets and Mavs at home.

Weekly Outlook: It's a back-and-forth week for the Suns who head to Sacramento on Tuesday, followed by a two-game homestand against the Thunder (Wednesday) and Clipper (Friday). Phoenix begins a four-game road swing on Sunday at San Antonio looking for its first win in three tries.

11) Utah (36-38, 31-41-1, 40-34)

Weekly Recap: The season has turned flat for the Jazz quickly with five straight losses, while winning just nine of their last 34 games to fall below .500. Utah dropped a pair of road games at Memphis and Oklahoma City by double-digits, but managed a cover in an overtime defeat to the Hornets. The Mavs completed a four-game sweep of the Jazz with a fourth-quarter rally in a 17-point demolition.

Weekly Outlook: Utah tries to break its losing streak on Monday against Washington, as the Jazz are 1-7 ATS the last eight games as a home favorite. The Jazz hosts the Lakers on Friday, followed by a trip to Sacramento on Sunday.

12) Golden State (32-42, 35-38-1, 34-40)

Weekly Recap: The Warriors completed a four-game road trip winless, including a pair of lopsided defeats to the Spurs and Rockets. Golden State rebounded nicely by dishing out a pair of routs to also-rans Toronto and Washington at home, while dropping a season-high 138 points on the Raptors.

Weekly Outlook: Keith Smart's team plays just one of its final eight games against a non-playoff team as the Warriors battle the Thunder (Tuesday) and Grizzlies (Wednesday) to start the week. Golden State returns home to Oracle Arena on Saturday to entertain Dallas, looking to beat the Mavs for the first time in four meetings.

13) L.A. Clippers (29-45, 34-39-1, 37-36-1)

Weekly Recap: The Clippers took care of the Wizards and Raptors at home, but Los Angeles was unable to cover as double-digit 'chalk.' The lone game that the Clips covered came against the Lakers as 9 ½-point 'dogs, marking the third ATS win this season against their cross-city rivals.

Weekly Outlook: The most difficult schedule in the league down the stretch belongs to the Clips, who battles all over .500 teams the final eight games. Vinny Del Negro's club hosts the Mavs on Wednesday, followed by a back-to-back set at Phoenix (Friday) and at home against the Thunder (Saturday).

14) Sacramento (20-52, 32-39-1, 41-31)

Weekly Recap: Maybe the Kings are saving their best for last, but Sacramento managed a successful 4-1 SU/ATS road trip, finishing things off with an overtime victory at Philadelphia. The Kings also knocked off the Pacers and Bucks as healthy underdogs with the only blemish coming to the hot Bulls in a 40-point setback.

Weekly Outlook: Sacramento plays three of four games at home this week starting with Phoenix on Tuesday. The Kings turn around for a quick trip to Denver on Wednesday, followed by a visit from the Nuggets on Friday. The week concludes on Sunday against Utah as the Kings are just 3-4 ATS the last seven games at home.

15) Minnesota (17-57, 30-40-2, 39-33)

Weekly Recap: The last thing the Wolves need is an injury to a key player, albeit their best player. Kevin Love missed all three games with a groin injury, but Minnesota found a way to cover in all three losses to Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Boston, marking a 7-3 ATS record the last 10 games.

Weekly Outlook: A tough home stretch continues for the Wolves against the Bulls on Wednesday and Heat on Friday. Minnesota heads to Memphis on Saturday, as the Wolves are 5-1 ATS the last six opportunities as a road underdog with no rest.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:49 PM

NL Future Looks

March 31, 2011

After the American League preview earlier this week, it’s time for some 2011 National League "futures" predictions; season win numbers in parentheses ( ).

NL EAST: Best recommendation...We know about all of the hype surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies (96½), whose tickets are now as hard to come by as they are for the hometown Eagles. And the locals are so whipped into a World Series frenzy that Howard Eskin, Angelo Cataldi and the rest at 610 WIP radio are even taking more baseball calls than football calls these days (which is rarely the case, even in April). We understand the reason for all of the excitement in the Delaware Valley, with Cliff Lee rejoining a staff that had already enlisted aces Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt within the past year. Along with Cole Hamels, no wonder they’re nicknaming the staff "The Four Aces." And we hardly think OF Jayson Werth’s departure will be a negative, with ex-Indian Ben Francisco ready to assume his role. But let’s play devil’s advocate for a moment, and point out the advancing age on the roster; Lee (who has had some physical problems in recent years), Halladay and Oswalt will all turn 33 or 34 by the end of this season, while Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, both 32, each began to show signs of breaking down physically a year ago when missing extensive action. Utley is already on the DL to start this season with knee woes, and throw in Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez (who’s pushing 40), and all of the key elements are well past 30 years of age. Let’s not forget 34-year-old closer Brad Lidge, who like Utley will start the season on the DL with rotator cuff problems. An injury or two to the staff and another to one of the key everyday players will have the Phils scrambling to make the postseason, much less running away with this division. None of the locals in Ashburn Alley munching on a tasty Tony Luke’s roast beef sandwich (with broccoli rabe) seem to be concerned, but we have our doubts; it’s an "under" for us at Citizens Bank Park.

Others to watch... Remember Phil Bengston? Apparently the Atlanta Braves (87½) didn’t remember Vince Lombardi’s hand-picked successor, either, because they basically allowed Bobby Cox to pick his own replacement (always a risky move) in ex-Florida manager Fredi Gonzalez, whom many Marlins fans know is not the second coming of John McGraw. We think Atlanta could have done better with Cox’s successor, but unlike Bengston with an aging Green Bay Packers team in 1968, Fredi inherits a hot collection of talent at Turner Field. And not even his well-documented passivity and reluctance to remove tiring pitchers should impede a Braves team that we have a hard time envisioning being much if any worse than a year ago when winning 91 games and qualifying as the NL wild card. Spring work at Disney World could hardly have been more encouraging, with the main issues heading into camp, the knee of vet 3B Chipper Jones, and the psychology of CB Nate McLouth, both being answered favorably in March. The starting rotation looks very solid, featuring alternating pitching styles that match favorably with the Phils; are Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, and Jair Jurrjens really that inferior to the Phillies’ Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels? The Braves also have plenty of specialists in the pen with Scott Linebrink, Pete Moylan, and the versatile Kris Medlin (who is slated to return soon from Tommy John surgery) in case the young tag-team closer combo of lefty Jonny Venters & righty Craig Kimbrel should implode. LF Martin Prado & RF Jason Heyward are on the ascent, while 2B Dan Uggla, though shaky with the glove and on the basepaths, adds unquestioned power. Not even Gonzalez should be able to mess this up, so it figures to be a fun summer in our very favorite city, where we can’t wait to return to dig into a rib plate at our favorite Dreamland BBQ in delightful Roswell. It’s an "over" for us at Turner Field.

Yes, Florida Marlins (82½) owner Jeffrey Loria would make old tightwad owners like Branch Rickey, Judge Emil Fuchs of the Boston Braves, the Cardinals’ Sam Breadon, and the Senators’ Clark Griffith downright proud. But the steady stream of talent being developed in the Marlins farm system is making it difficult for Florida to put a subpar product on the field. As for Loria, he and GM Larry Beinfest and skipper Edwin Rodriguez have at least supposedly had it with SS Hanley Ramirez’ diva act; word from camp at Jupiter is that Ramirez either plays hard, or gets traded. Assuming it’s the former, it will likely be due to eliminating the silly errors in the field and displaying more patience at the plate; if Hanley is simply content to get on base, his speed will score runs, and Florida needs to sustain more rallies after leaving too many runners on base with the many whiff machines in the lineup. One of those, 2B Dan Uggla, has been traded to the Braves, but his departure will not be the disaster that rotisserie zealots fear, because his limited range, subpar glove, and poor baserunning hurt the team as much as his homers helped. Replacement Omar Infante will improve the defense and run scoring with his consistency in all phases, as with RF Mike Stanton swinging for the fences, the Marlins don’t need another strikeout machine like Uggla. Meanwhile, new C John Buck will add power, not to mention the first Florida backstop who can receive and throw since Pudge Rodriguez, and Gaby Sanchez appears to be a solid Chris Chambliss-type line-drive RBI type with a solid glove at first base. We have some concerns about durability in the pitching staff, where Ricky Nolasco had thumb problems in spring and Anibal Sanchez has an extensive injury history. But if healthy, each starter is an innings eater (relieving some of the pressure on a shaky bullpen), and Josh Johnson (NL-best 2.30 ERA in 2010) is Cy Young-caliber at the top of the rotation. With a few breaks, this bunch hangs in the playoff race and threatens 87-90 wins, so we’re looking "over" on the Dade-Broward County line.

Maybe the tough-guy approach it what’s needed for the New York Mets (76½), who have been operating with a pleasant GM (Omar Minaya) and a couple of easy-going managers (Willie Randolph and Jerry Manuel) for the past several years. So much for the vacation, with ex-Marine Sandy Alderson (architect of the Oakland powerhouse teams in the late ‘80s) taking over the GM duties and non-nonsense drill sergeant Terry Collins, who was a my-way-or-the-highway kind of skipper in his last managerial gig with the Angels over a decade ago, now calling the shots in the dugout. And Alderson has thrown away the paring knife and instead utilized a machete to cut up the roster, swallowing huge contracts to get rid of the likes of P Oliver Perez and 2B Luis Castillo, who was a fan target ever since dropping that routine popup to cost a game against the Yankees two years ago. Still, the Mets do not have the look of a contender with a couple of other high-priced components both dealing with ailments (ace Johan Santana out until at least July after last September’s shoulder surgery, RF Carlos Beltran’s sore knees making him a DL risk from the outset), while both LF Jason Bay and SS Jose Reyes are acknowledged injury risks. And let’s not forget the hot potato that is closer Francisco Rodriguez and his off-field issues. There are a few green shoots of hope sprouting from the Citi Field turf in the forms of promising CF Angel Pagan and 1B Ike Davis, but there also appear to be too many weeds; it’s an "under" for us in Queens.

Tough to call...The Washington Nationals (72½) can’t seem to catch a break. Just when rookie fireballer Stephen Strasburg sets the league ablaze with his breathtaking debut last June, he’s suddenly out and undergoing Tommy John surgery; see you in 2012. Meanwhile, this past season’s number one draft choice, Henderson, NV outfielder Bryce Harper, is still a relative baby at only 18 years of age and likely spends much of the season learning the ropes at long-season Class A Hagerstown before perhaps moving up the minor chain sometime in the summer; don’t expect to see him at Nationals Park until 2012 at the earliest, either. The good news, however, is that the Nats seem to be placing more emphasizing on pitching, defense, and speed, all on display at Viera in March. New 3B coach Bo Porter has energized the club on the bathpaths with a new aggressive style, per the wishes of skipper Jim Riggleman, which should suit LF Michael Morse and SS Ian Desmond (provided he shows a bit more patience at the plate in his leadoff role) just fine. Meanwhile, vets such as OF Jayson Werth (FA Phils) and 1B Adam LaRoche (FA D-backs) add a combined 52 homers from a year ago to the lineup, and C Pudge Rodriguez remains a positive force. Of course, all of this might not mean anything if the Nats commit another 123 errors, or if a staff of sinkerball specialists led by vets Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis can’t keep the ball down. We think the Nats can improve from their 69 wins from last year, but we’re not sure how much, so we’ll simply pass in D.C. and instead look forward to a few chili smokes at Ben’s Chili Bowl down the third base line when visiting the ballpark this summer.

NL CENTRAL: Best recommendation...Why are the Cincinnati Reds (86½) being discounted from last season’s 91 wins and NL Central crown? Perhaps it’s because the memories are still fresh of the offensive meltdown in the NLDS vs. the Phils, which included Roy Halladay imitating Don Larsen and tossing only the second no-hitter in postseason history at Cincy’s expense. After all, it wasn’t as if the offense was impotent in 2010; the Reds led the NL in scoring for much of the season and ended up tallying their most runs since 2005, with 1B Joey Votto enjoying an MVP campaign, while Cincy allowing its fewest runs over a full season since 1992. And for the most part, the team returns intact, although the rotation has a slightly different look with Aaron Harang departing for San Diego and both Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey opening the season on the DL with shoulder soreness (more a precautionary measure for both, each expected back by mid-April). But the fact Edinson Volquez has been named the opening day starter at least means that Dusty Baker feels the Dominican righty is all of the way back from his 2009 Tommy John surgery, and flamethrower Ardolis Chapman looms as the ultimate X-factor, potentially moving into the rotation or maybe assuming the closer’s role should Coco Cordero struggle. We do have a few concerns about advancing age in the everyday lineup; 3B Scott Rolen turns 36 in April, C Ramon Hernandez turns 35 in May, and newly-acquired SS Edgar Renteria, waiting in the wings should Paul Janish not be able to adequately fill Orlando Cabrera’s shoes, in now 35. Getting full and productive seasons from Rolen and Hernandez in particular are key, as they spearhead one of the league’s best defenses, which also includes CF Drew Stubbs and RF Jay Bruce covering lots of ground in the outfield. Still, more positives than negatives at Great American Ballpark, where we love to sit upstairs along the left field line, watch the barges float down the adjacent Ohio, listen to Marty Brennaman on the radio, and munch on a few Skyline coney dogs or a slice of pepperoni from LaRosa’s...can life get any better? Look "over" again in Cincy.

Others to watch...Let’s get serious for a minute about the Chicago Cubs (82); is there any reason to expect this team to improve more than 7 wins from last year’s 75-87 disappointment? We hope the optimism isn’t fueled by a belated late-season rally last September for then-interim manager Mike Quade, under whom the Cubbies finally began to execute some basic fundamentals and won 24 of their last 37. That earned Quade the full-time gig over expected Lou Piniella successor and former Wrigley Field hero Ryne Sandberg, but playing well with no pressure late in the season when no one is looking is one thing; doing it for 162 games is another. Until further notice, the parts still appear greater than the sum at Wrigley, because we are not thrilled with the addition of Tampa Bay 1B Carlos Pena, who hits for power but has a low OBP and strikes out as much as long-ago Cub Dave Kingman. The dysfunctional parade continues with the maddening LF Alfonso Soriano and 3B Aramis Ramirez, both trying to bounce back from disappointing campaigns while in their mid 30s. OFs Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd also both turn 34 this season in an aging lineup complemented only by young upstart SS Starlin Castro and solid C Geovany Soto. Quade will have to mix and match with no prototypical leadoff hitter and little speed with which to work, and a lot of potential rallies will die with Pena’s penchant for strikeouts. The addition of RHP Matt Garza from Tampa Bay is a positive for the staff, but counting upon anything from Carlos Zambrano is asking for trouble, and projected starter Carlos Silva was released this spring in Mesa. Again, why is this team being projected over .500? Did we miss something, or have the Cubs done anything lately? It’s an "under" for us at Wrigley.

No one is paying much attention to the Houston Astros (71½) these days. Indeed, it’s a wonder anyone paid attention to them at all after their dismal break from the gate last season had them behind the Pirates for the first month of the campaign and buried at 17-33 in late May. Even the fans stopped showing up at Minute Maid Park in what turned out to be the Astros’ lowest attendance since 1997. But those who did pay attention to the team after the slow start had to be impressed with the buttons pushed by manager Brad Mills, who effectively squeezed every ounce from the team and helped forge a rather remarkable turnaround as the team played over .500 for the last four months of the season. Unfortunately, Mills might have to reprise the magician act again because GM Ed Wade, hamstrung by money-bleeding owner Drayton McLane, added little in the offseason beyond journeyman utility player Bill Hall (penciled in to start at 2B) and SS Clint Barmes, who is out for a month with a broken hand. The lineup remains overloaded with right-handed bats such as Carlos Lee’s, which is why it is important for young left-handed hitting 1B Brett Wallace to mature in a hurry and move up from his projected No. 7 spot in the order. On the plus side, the staff posted the NL’s third-best ERA after the All-Star break, and a couple of ex-Phillies, Brett Myers and J.A. Happ (who arrived in the Roy Oswalt deal), combined with Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris, form a solid starting nucleus, with vet Brandon Lyon a serviceable closer out of the bullpen. We’re not projected the "Astronomicals" (as Marty Brennaman calls them) to make the playoffs, but we don’t think they’re going to lose 90 games, either. "Over" in Houston.

We admit, we’re fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates (67), and enjoy no ballpark experience better than PNC Park, with its reasonable prices, unmatched sightlines, great views of downtown, the Clemente Bridge and the adjacent Allegheny River. Not to mention the best array of ballpark food in the bigs, from Manny Sanguillen’s BBQ beyond the right field wall to the Primanti Brothers sandwiches, plus a tasty array of dogs and sausages, Quaker Steak & Lube, Benkovitz Seafood, the Mrs. T’s pierogies (and the pierogi races featuring Oliver Onion and Cheese Chester). And, of course, the local beers such as Yuengling, Penn Pilsner, Rolling Rock, and Iron City. Notice we haven’t gotten around to talking about the Bucs, working on their 19th straight losing season and off what was, even by their reduced standards, a train wreck in 2010. Try 105 losses and a 17-64 mark on the road, a staggering -279 run differential, and only one complete game from a starting pitcher. Yikes! Not all was negative, however...the team reported an operating profit of $34.5 million (who says it doesn’t pay to lose). But a mutinous fan base, while not able to convince management to raid the FA market, at least prompted the team to spend money on its draft choices, and there is a bit of optimism with gregarious new manager Clint Hurdle in town. But the 4-year tenure of GM Neal Huntington has been nightmarish, as his insistence to load up on prospects in exchange for proven major league talent has been disastrous (several of Huntington’s discarded players have been flourishing, such as Toronto’s Jose Bautista and his 54 homers in 2010, or how about 2B Freddy Sanchez and RP Javier Lopez and their World Series rings with the Giants). Almost all of Huntington’s prospects have flopped in what is looking like an MLB equivalent of Matt Millen’s GM career with the Detroit Lions. Only ex-Padre Kevin Correia offers new blood to a staff that posted numbers similar to the ‘62 Mets a year ago and was MLB’s worst, and all were hit hard this spring in Bradenton. We’re also not sure about Hurdle’s decision to move one of the few offensive catalysts, speedy CF Andrew McCutchen, from leadoff down to the No. 3 spot in front of new 1B Lyle Overbay. Young LF Jose Tabata and 3B Pedro Alvarez offer hope for the future, but we’re not sure what they or any projected help from AAA Indianapolis can do about 2011, and if vets such as Overbay or SS Ronny Cedeno are having decent luck, Huntington is likely to trade them away for more prospects at the deadline. Sorry, but we’re compelled to look "under" in the Steel City.

We can understand why the St. Louis Cardinals (83) are being slightly discounted by the oddsmakers. After all, staff co-ace Adam Wainwright will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, and the Big Kahuna, 1B Albert Pujols, remains unsigned beyond 2011. Another worrying development is depth, as of the bench players, only C Gerald Laird has played a full season in the majors. That said, however, it is not impossible to envision the Redbirds contending with a few breaks and avoiding any further key injuries. Although starters Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia were having trouble keeping the ball down this spring, the other staff co-ace, Chris Carpenter, and Jake Westbrook looked fine in Jupiter, where former bullpen workhorse Kyle McClellan also impressed when given a chance to take Wainwright’s role in the rotation. McClellan’s absence from the bullpen, however, could weaken the relief corps, as the bridge to closer Ryan Franklin now becomes a bit of a dice roll for Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. Still, there is plenty of pop in the lineup with Matt Holliday, Pujols, and newly-acquired Lance Berkman a pretty potent 3-4-5 in the order, although we wonder a bit about Berkman’s ability to handle the chores in right field spending the past few years at 1B (or briefly as a DH last year with the Yankees) and still just a year removed from knee surgery. Don’t be surprised to see Berkman and Holliday flip-flop between RF and LF, although whatever the combo, CF Colby Rasmus is going to have to cover a lot of ground. The edge the Cards had in this division (two No. 1 starters) has been lost with Wainwright’s injury, and we worry a bit about the defense and Pujols’ contract status becoming a distraction, but we are reluctant to underestimate the Cards, who have reached 83 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons (and won the World Series in the year they won 83, in 2006). We’ll look "over" at Busch Stadium.

Tough to call...Frankly, we’re a bit worried about getting pulled into the whirlpool of hype surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers (86). Granted, the Brew Crew has made some significant upgrades in the offseason (we’ll get to those in a moment), but the team underachieved big time last year when stumbling home at 77-85, and with 1B Prince Fielder due for free agency after 2011, he could be a source of distraction and trade talk at midseason. Moreover, Ron Roenicke cuts his teeth as a big league manager with a clubhouse that turned on predecessors Ned Yost and Ken Macha. Spring work in Maryvale was also troublesome, with injuries to newly-acquired SP Zack Greinke (broken rib, suffered in a pick-up basketball game, of all things), RF Corey Hart (strained oblique, a bad injury for a power hitter), C Jonathan Lucroy (broken pinkie), and relievers Manny Parra (strained back) and LaTroy Hawkins (shoulder). If all hands are on deck, maybe Milwaukee can seriously contend, especially with Greinke and another newly-acquired potential ace, ex-Blue Jay Shaun Marcum, anchoring the staff along with Yovani Gallardo. But Greinke’s injury (which could keep him out until May) has thrown the rotation for a loop, and Roenicke was already looking for help at the back end of the rotation in Arizona; expect Milwaukee to go with only a 4-man rotation at the outset. Plenty of pop does remain in the lineup, and it’s worth noting that Hart, LF Ryan Braun, and 3B Casey McGehee gave Milwaukee the only trio of 100-RBI producers in the NL (Fielder, by the way, didn’t get there, with only 83). The Brewers could slug their way into playoff contention, but we see a few too many trip wires in Milwaukee, especially with the early injury bug. It’s a pass for us in Brew Town, although we won’t pass on the sausages, brats, and fried cheese curds (you heard us right) if we get back to Miller Park this summer.

NL WEST: Best recommendation...We have to admit, it was more entertaining keeping tabs of the divorce trial of Frank and Jaime McCourt (and word of Jaime’s ambitions to parlay her old Dodger gig into the Presidency...of the United States, that is) than watching the Los Angeles Dodgers (83½) struggle to an 80-82 finish last season. The problem with the McCourt’s ongoing battle is that it has hamstrung an organization that used to throw around the cash pretty freely in free-agency but has been a bit more reserved the past couple of offseasons as the ownership situation comically sorts itself out. All of it was too much for manager Joe Torre, who begged away from any contract extension and opted for temporary retirement instead, with sidekick Don Mattingly now getting his chance as the skipper. A quick look at the roster shows what we mean about the straitjacket GM Ned Colletti has had to wear the past couple of years; journeyman types not only fill the roster, they’re in the starting lineup, which at the outset includes well-traveled sorts as LF Tony Gwynn, Jr., C Rod Barajas, 2B Jamey Carroll, and SS Juan Uribe (albeit off a World Series with the hated Giants), as most of Colletti’s expenditures this offseason were not spent on Carl Crawford-like FAs, merely re-signing a handful of existing players and replacing various parts that had walked out the door. The farm system has dried up in recent years, and injuries to any among RF Andre Ethier, CF Matt Kemp (who went "Hollywood" last year), or 1B James Loney will expose the lack of depth at Mattingly’s disposal. About all the Blue can hope for is lights-out work from the rotation, but beyond Clayton Kershaw, we see no potential dominators, and with Vicente Padilla and newly-acquired Jon Garland both opening the season on the DL, Mattingly’s staff is thinned from the outset. Questions also surround heavyweight fireman Jonathan Broxton, who lost his confidence and his closer’s role for a time last season. When the most useful offseason acquisition appears to be a middle reliever (ex-Twin Matt Guerrier), and the magic touch of Torre now gone, Dodger fans might be reduced to simply savoring longtime play-by-play man Vin Scully (who decided to come back for another year) as long as they can. It’s an "under" for us at Chavez Ravine...and to Vinny, a very pleasant day to you, wherever you might be.

Others to watch...If we thought the Arizona Diamondbacks (72½) were going to resemble their dysfunctional selves from the past few seasons, we wouldn’t waste any time considering them as a team to watch. But a few developments in the offseason are reasons for encouragement in Phoenix. The hiring of GM Kevin Towers (ex-San Diego) finally puts a serious baseball man back in charge of the personnel department after the D-backs went on the cheap for the past several years. If nothing else, Towers will continue to fine-tune the roster as the season progresses. Meanwhile, manager Kirk Gibson, retained after his interim stint last season, is already stressing accountability and attitude, qualities that made him an invaluable player once upon a time, not to mention fundamentals lost on recent D-back editions such as holding enemy baserunners, situational hitting, moving runners along, etc. Towers also immediately began to reshape the roster, getting rid of wind-machine 3B Mark Reynolds and his penchant for strikeouts, and began to remake the bullpen with new closer J.J. Putz, who a few years ago was an elite fireman with the Mariners, plus set-up man David Hernandez from the Orioles in the Reynolds trade. Granted, much of the 100-K parade from a year ago remains (CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton, SS Stephen Drew, and 2B Kelly Johnson), but all are capable producers if showing a bit of the Gibson discipline at the plate, and the addition of professional hitters such as 3B Melvin Mora, 1B Russell Branyan, and OF/1B Xavier Nady will provide good examples for the youngsters as well as more functionality in the lineup. And the staff has plenty of promise, with Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Barry Enright flashing plenty of upside a year ago, and ex-Tiger Armando Galarraga an interesting late edition. Like the Astros, the D-backs don’t have to contend, they just have to avoid losing 90 game to make our "over" call at Chase Field come true.

Fool us once, shame on you; fool us twice, shame on us. A year ago, the San Diego Padres (75½) were the surprise package in the National League. We hate to ask Bud Black’s troops to do it again to make us believers...but we will, risking our own shame. We have our reasons, as exiting Peoria, San Diego is already a banged-up team, with six players opening the season on the DL, including projected opening day starting pitcher Mat Latos, suffering from shoulder bursitis. Latos is expected back before the end of April, but the staff as a whole endured a rugged spring, and the defense did not look nearly as sharp as it did in the Cactus League a year ago. Two other projected starting pitchers, Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard, will both have to be monitored closely after their own nagging injuries this spring. Moreover, the anchor of the offense, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, left for the riches of the east coast and the Red Sox in the offseason, leaving a gaping hole in the lineup. Last summer’s supposed key pickup from the Cards, OF Ryan Ludwick, had a miserable run after arriving at Petco Park, and we are not convinced some of the various spare parts brought in by young GM Jed Hoyer (one of the stat freaks preferred by General Partner Jeff Moorad, who believes his days as an agent qualify him to be a personnel evaluator) such as CF Cameron Maybin (one of those opening the season on the DL), 1B Brad Hawpe, 2B Orlando Hudson, and SS Jason Bartlett are going to compensate for the loss of the invaluable Gonzalez. No surprises this season; San Diego doesn’t contend, and if the staff implodes, the Pads are likely bound for the cellar, so we’re looking "under" at Petco Park.

It’s going to be hard for the San Francisco Giants (88) to bottle what they had down the stretch last season and replicate the dynamics of the franchise’s first World Series since Willie Mays ran down Vic Wertz’ deep fly at the Polo Grounds in the sweep over the Indians back in 1954. But, maybe they can. After all, the starting rotation probably remains MLB’s best, with a pair of hard-throwing righties, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, split in the rotation by lefty Jonathan Sanchez, with still-serviceable lefty Barry Zito offering further change-of-pace as the No. 4 starter and last year’s rookie sensation Madison Bumgarner completing the lights-out staff. The eccentric, bearded closer Brian Wilson opens the season on the DL with a strained oblique, but is expected back within two weeks, and Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti have plenty of temporary options in a deep and varied bullpen. Meanwhile, the likes of LF Pat Burrell, RF Aubrey Huff, 2B Freddy Sanchez, and new SS Miguel Tejada (an offensive upgrade from predecessor Juan Uribe) are now firmly entrenched in the San Francisco lineup, with OF Cody Ross likely to join them soon when he comes off the DL with a strained right calf. A newcomer to watch is rookie 1B Brandon Belt, the former Texas Longhorn who zoomed up the minors in 2010 ago much like last year’s rookie sensation C Buster Posey did the year before. As long as the staff stays healthy, the Giants should at least get to 90 wins and have a chance to defend their title in the postseason. "Over" at AT&T Park.

Tough to call...Maybe the Colorado Rockies (87) were just following the lead of the Green Bay Packers, who also didn’t tamper too much with what they thought was a winning nucleus before last season, using personnel developed within the system to help form an eventual championship team. So the Rocks hope to do the same after mostly sitting pat in the offseason following a near-miss at back-to-back playoff berths when fading badly in the last two weeks of the campaign, losing 13 of their last 14 games. Only a bit of fine tuning was made in the offseason by GM Dan O’Dowd, acquiring versatile Ty Wigginton (who can play any infield position and hits from the right side, a nice complement to left-handed hitting corner infielders Todd Helton and Ian Stewart) and a couple of useful relievers from Houston, Matt Lindstrom and Felipe Paulino. Should fragile closer Huston Street get hurt once more, skipper Jim Tracy now at least has adequate cover in the bullpen. Meanwhile, the rotation has a solid look with Ubaldo Jimenez looking to pick up where he left off in 2010 (19-8, 2.88 ERA) and Jhoulys Chacin exhibiting much better control of his fastball during spring. Sources say the lineup could be more productive as soon as speedy CF and leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler masters the bunt; he at lest seems to have heeded the message of getting on base no matter what. A breakout performer could be RF Seth Smith, who was hitting lefties better in the spring, while LF Carlos Gonzalez (.336, 34 HR & 117 RBI in 2010) could be poised for an MVP campaign. But the production from Stewart and the aging Helton dropped alarmingly last season, and while Wigginton could be a nice stop-gap for either, the Rocks desperately need some pop from those corner infield positions to contend. With that still a bit of a question mark, it’s enough to make us pause and instead simply take a pass in Denver.

Play ball!

**StarDust Bum** · 04-01-2011, 05:51 PM

AL Future Looks

April 1, 2011

Believe it or not, baseball season is almost upon us, so it’s time for what has become one of our favorite editorial assignments of the year. Following are preferred "futures" predictions for the 2011 MLB season; season win numbers in parentheses ( ). First up will be the American League; we’ll add the National League to the mix later this week.
AL EAST

Best recommendation...Can it really be thirteen years since the Baltimore Orioles (76½) cracked the .500 barrier? No wonder the locals reacted as if Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, and Jim Palmer reappeared on the scene after a mild resurgence late last summer when Buck Showalter took over in the dugout for Dave Trembley. But nothing in Showalter’s managerial career suggests he is a savior, and a closer look at what he has at his disposal should temper the enthusiasm. Despite bragging about their young pitching, the O’s cannot count on much beyond Brian Matusz; Jake Arrieta has only a handful of starts under his belt, and his September performance means little until he goes around the league a second time, while Brian Bergesen had been getting cuffed around pretty good in Sarasota this spring before taking a liner off his arm last Friday. And a career journeyman (Jeremy Guthrie) remains the staff ace. Prospects seem a bit better at the plate, although offseason additions such as DH Vlady Guerrero and 1B Derrek Lee are on the downsides of their careers, while the presence of newly-added human wind-machine 3B Mark Reynolds (ex-Arizona) means that Baltimore is a threat to challenge Tampa Bay’s strikeout record set last year. The lineup could also use a healthy season from catalyst 2B Brian Roberts, but after playing in only 59 games a year ago, he’s been hurting again this spring. There might be some wide-eyed 12-year-old fans in Towson excited at the O’s prospects, but we’re looking "under" again at Camden Yards.

Others to watch...Should the Boston Red Sox (95½) be making World Series reservations? Maybe so, because this is now arguably the most-talented roster in the majors after OF Carl Crawford and 1B Adrian Gonzalez were added in the offseason. Crawford, along with 2B Dustin Pedroia (back at 100% after last year’s foot surgery) and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, potentially gives the Bosox a combined 150 steals if skipper Terry Francona so chooses. Moreover, all own outstanding gloves, and Gonzalez’ addition to a lineup that already includes the very-patient Kevin Youkilis (now moved to 3B) means that Francona now has a couple of deluxe walk machines who complement their freer-swinging mates. Boston is also so well-stocked in the position areas that it can concentrate the SS (Marco Scutaro) and C (vet Jason Varitek and young Jared Saltalamacchia) positions for defense. Meanwhile, the pitching staff is so deep that former ace Josh Beckett can be used as the fourth starter in the rotation as he readjusts his mechanics after a career-worst 2010. Moreover, the addition of longtime White Sox closer Bobby Jenks adds another arm to a dominant bullpen that already had Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon as a lethal late-inning combination. A drama and injury-free spring at Fort Myers indicates the Bosox are ready to go, and since this looks like the best bet of all MLB teams to get to 100 wins, we’re looking "over" at Fenway Park.

A lot of people might not realize that the Toronto Blue Jays (76½) won 85 games last season, which should have qualified Cito Gaston for more Manager of the Year votes than he received. Or that the Jays led the bigs with 257 homers a year ago. Gaston has since retired, replaced by longtime Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, and there were more personnel losses than additions in the offseason, but we’re not convinced Toronto is due for a big drop-off. Despite Vernon Wells’ trade to the Angels, plenty of pop remains in the lineup with 3B Jose Bautista (MLB-best 54 HRs in 2010!), 1B Adam Lind, 2B Aaron Hill (recently back in action this spring at Dunedin after a quadriceps injury), and DH Edwin Encarnacion all legit long-ball threats, while raw speed was added when acquiring CF Rajai Davis, who swiped 50 bases for the A’s last season. Meanwhile, vet C Jose Molina will provide a nice stop-gap until ballyhooed J.P. Arencibia is ready to take over the job behind the plate on a full-time basis. Admittedly, there are some concerns with a young staff that dealt ace Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, but Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and Jesse Litsch all have proven live arms, and young Kyle Drabek, the prize of the Roy Halladay deal with the Phils, has finally arrived. As long as Farrell can mix-and-match with a rebuilt bullpen that has had some injury concerns in spring with newly added Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel both hurting (another vet addition, Jon Rauch, is likely to be a serviceable alternative as the closer for the time being), Toronto shouldn’t be roadkill. The local fans disappointed again with the Maple Leafs might not get much relief from the Jays, who haven’t made the playoffs since their last World Series in 1993, but we’re still looking "over" that modest win hurdle at Rogers Centre.

Tough to call...What’s going on with the New York Yankees (91½)? The allure of the pinstripes and the Big Apple was not enough to convince main FA target Cliff Lee to enlist (opting for Philadelphia instead...how times have changed!), and now Joe Girardi enters the season with plenty of question marks in his rotation behind CC Sabathia and perhaps young Phil Hughes. The fourth and fifth starters, in particular, were hot topics the past month in Tampa, with young Ivan Nova and the well-traveled Freddy Garcia apparently winning those jobs, but there is also concern about how well A.J. Burnett can bounce back after imploding a year ago (4-13 with a 6.48 ERA after June 1). Regardless, expect GM Brian Cashman to closely monitor the starting pitching market in the next few months. There is nothing wrong with a familiar-looking everyday lineup which saw 2B Robinson Cano emerge as a star last season; indeed, it might even improve slightly with the addition of C Russell Martin, freeing up Jorge Posada for regular DH duties. And Mariano Rivera, at age 41, is still going strong while anchoring a solid bullpen. But the rotation could thin out in a hurry after Sabathia, and the chance it could become a real mess is reason to pause. It’s a pass for us in the Bronx.

How far do the Tampa Bay Rays (84) figure to drop after beating out both the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East for the second time in three seasons? It was pretty much one-way traffic away from The Trop during the offseason, with stars such as OF Carl Crawford (to Boston) and 1B Carlos Pena (to the Cubs) and several others leaving town, as essentially half of the AL East-winning roster has undergone a turnover. But young GM Andrew Friedman might have pulled a couple rabbits out of his hat in January when convincing vets Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez to give it a shot in St. Pete in a couple of Scott Boras-influenced FA signings, and how much skipper Joe Maddon can squeeze out of both vets (with Manny the ultimate wild card) figures to go a long in determining if the Rays can get above .500. Friedman and Maddon, however, believe the defense will be as good or better with SS Reid Brignac (taking the place of Jason Bartlett, traded to San Diego) and 1B Dan Johnson (taking the place of Pena) now everyday players, and there’s still plenty of upside with 3B Evan Longoria and OFs B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce. And with five potential "number one" starters led by David Price and James Shields, the rotation could still be the AL’s best despite dealing Matt Garza to the Cubs. Where the season could really implode, however, is in a totally rebuilt bullpen, with only long-reliever Andy Sonnanstine back from a year ago and Maddon conducting auditions the past month; hotheaded journeyman Kyle Farnsworth appears to have exited Port Charlotte as the temporary closer, hardly a comforting development. That’s enough to prevent looking "over" at The Trop; it’s a no-call for us in St. Pete instead.

AL CENTRAL

Best recommendation...We understand some of the the reservations surrounding the Minnesota Twins (85½) and their rebuilt bullpen, but keep in mind that Ron Gardenhire’s team won 94 games and the AL Central a year ago with now-healthy 1B Justin Morneau missing the last half of the season. And Minnesota’s time-tested winning formula (consistency in starting pitching and defense, the ability to move runners along, good base running, clutch hitting, and not making crucial mistakes in the field or on the basepaths) doesn’t figure to change in a few months. Granted, the reconfigured bullpen (whose prior composition was a real strength) was the focus of spring work at Ft. Myers, but with Joe Nathan (returning from successful Tommy John surgery) and Matt Capps waging a spirited duel for the closer’s role all spring, the pen might not be a liability, especially with the likelihood that former starter Kevin Slowey slides seamlessly into a set-up role. Gardenhire is also breaking in a new middle infield combo with imported SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka (the top hitter in Japan last year with a .346 BA)and 2B Alexi Casilla moving into starting roles vacated by J.J. Hardy (traded to Baltimore) and Orlando Hudson (FA San Diego) and giving the batting order three straight bursts of speed along with OF Denard Span in front of power sources Joe Mauer and Morneau. Adding these extra quicks should allow the Twins to better utilize the gaps at Target Field, which played big last season. We’re not sure Minnesota gets back to the playoffs or advances beyond the ALDS for the first time since 2002, but it’s still an "over" for us in Minneapolis.

Others to watch...They’re adopting the slogan "All In" on the south side for the Chicago White Sox (85), but it could just as easily be "All Out" as well. That’s because, with a record payroll in the neighborhood of $125 million, it’s now or never for the Chisox, whose owner Jerry Reinsdorf could be tempted to disassemble the parts by mideseason if the pieces aren’t fitting together. That doesn’t figure to be a problem for the starting pitching, although projected ace Jake Peavy, off season-ending surgery last July to repair a torn lat muscle, was shut down midway through March in Arizona with shoulder tendinitis and will open the campaign on the DL. Assuming Peavy returns as expected in a few weeks, Ozzie Guillen likely has the most solid rotation in the division with John Danks, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson also in the fold, while Cactus League sources maintain that there should be no drop-off from the departed Bobby Jenks to lefties Matt Thornton and Chris Sale as the new closers-by-committee. The everyday lineup is a bit of a crazy quilt, however, and rookie 3b Brent Morel figures to have a short leash in the starting lineup with serviceable Mark Teahen waiting in the wings. But the addition of Adam Dunn as the full-time DH should increase the power numbers (and the strikeouts) significantly and be an upgrade over Guillen’s DH platoon of a year ago, while the various athletes in the lineup (LF Juan Pierre, 2B Gordon Beckham, CF Alex Rios, and SS Alexei Ramirez) are being given the green light by Guillen to run as they please. Here’s a hint if attending a Sox game; forget the snarled traffic around the ballpark, just park downtown and ride the train instead to The Cell to watch Ozzie’s guys go "over" in 2011.

Remember the renaissance of the Cleveland Indians (71) in the ‘90s, when the Tribe became a contender and tickets to Jacobs Field were harder to come by than Cavs tickets when LeBron was still in town? Unfortunately, that’s all a distant memory these days (even The Jake has changed its name to the dreary and very corporate Progressive Field, where Cleveland ranked bottom in MLB attendance in 2010), especially the contender part as the Indians have gone the way of the Browns and this year’s Cavs into oblivion since their last playoff berth in 2007. And the depressed local fan base might simply see a continuation of the LeBron-less Cavs season with the Tribe. A couple of holdovers from the last winning era, OF Grady Sizemore & DH Travis Hafner, can’t stay healthy, with Sizemore expected to open the season on the DL as he continues to rehab from last year’s serious microfracture surgery, and Hafner dealing with shoulder issues this spring in Goodyear. Another projected starter, 3B Jason Donald, also likely opens the season in the infirmary with a broken hand, while C Carlos Santana will have to be monitored closely after last year’s season-ending knee surgery. Mind you, we’re already talking about many Cleveland injuries before spring training is complete. The prospects might not seem so bleak if CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee were still around to anchor the pitching staff, but they’re long gone, with Fausto Carmona the only link to those headier days on the shores of Lake Erie, and manager Manny Acta crossing his fingers for the likes of Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco and the rest of an unsettled staff at least give promising closer Chris Perez a chance to do his thing. Whether it’s the Browns, Cavs, or Tribe, it seems to be the same scenario these days in Cleveland; at least the Terminal Tower looks better than it did 40 years ago. Like everything else in town these days, look "under" with the Indians.

Word was that skipper Jim Leyland was thinking about calling it quits after last season when the Detroit Tigers (84½) missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year and couldn’t even get above .500 in the process. Leyland decided to give it one more shot in the last year of his contract but might have been having some second thoughts after a distracting spring in which 1B Miguel Cabrera was nailed with his second DUI in 18 months. Assuming smoother sailing in the upcoming weeks and months, Cabrera might figure to benefit from the FA addition of Victor Martinez, who will likely see more DH duty than at catcher and will probably provide some bonafide protection in the order behind Cabrera. What we don’t like about the lineup are the defensive liabilities, in particular corner outfielders Ryan Raburn and aging Magglio Ordonez (especially Ordonez), forcing fleet CF Austin Jackson to cover too much ground, while SS Jhonny Peralta and 1B Cabrera (who has little or no range) are under par with their gloves as well. Plus, 2B Carlos Guillen opens the season on the DL as he slowly recovers from last September’s microfracture knee surgery. The pitching staff does have a high ceiling, with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer a potentially-dominant 1-2 combo, but GM Dave Dombrowkski gambled unnecessarily when adding injury-prone Brad Penny to the rotation, and we’ll see how ex-Yankee Phil Coke adjusts in his return to a starter’s role afer working out of the bullpen last season. Although we’re looking forward to visiting Comerica Park and a chance to wolf down a few coneys from Leo’s right behind home plate, we project an "under" in Motown as the Leyland era likely comes to an unsatisfactory conclusion.

Tough to call...We’ve been burned a few times in the past several years, expecting the Kansas City Royals (68½) to finally make a breakthrough. And this hardly seems the season for them to catch an updraft, either, not after trading away staff ace Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Brewers for four (admittedly quality) prospects. Prospects, however, rarely deliver immediate dividends, so where is hope for any upside at Kauffman Stadium? Not to get carried away with spring developments, but KC was opening plenty of eyes in Arizona the past month, as skipper Ned Yost turned the rabbits loose on the basepaths as the Royals led all AL teams in BA and runs scored. In the process, FA signee OF Melky Cabrera was hitting over .500 in the Cactus League, former number two draftee LF Alex Gordon appeared ready for a breakout season, and 1B Kila Ka’aihue hinted that his homer numbers in the minors could translate to the Big Show as he picked up where he left off in a late-season call-up last summer. Remember, the offense wasn’t bad last year (.274 BA ranking second in the AL) and didn’t need much fixing. But the same can’t be said of a staff that had an AL-worst 4.97 ERA in 2010 and has no ace after the departure of Greinke unless the inconsistent Luke Hochevar or Kyle Davies assume the role. And what makes any projections more tricky in KC is that GM Dayton Moore could easily be tempted to move Cabrera or lights-out closer Joakim Soria by the trade deadline if he can add the sorts of prospects he covets. Thus, we’re going to stay neutral on the Royals but we will recommend the burnt ends if you happen to stop by Arthur Bryant’s BBQ, near where the old Municipal Stadium used to stand on Brooklyn Avenue.

AL WEST

Best recommendation...Who might be this year’s version of the San Francisco Giants? Look no further than across the Bay to the Oakland Athletics (84½), ready to return to the playoff mix after a few seasons of re-tooling. Remember that it wasn’t the Giants or Phillies who led the majors in ERA last season; rather, it was the A’s at 3.47, and the core of a lights-out young staff returns in tact, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, while Gio Gonzalez picked up where he left off last season after the All-Star break (2.59 ERA) by looking very sharp in Phoenix, posting an ERA under 2.00 much of the spring. And if former Oakland ace and FA signee Rich Harden recovers from a lat tear, skipper Bob Geren will have even more arms at his disposal. Continuing the theme, a deep bullpen should not skip a beat even if closer Andrew Bailey opens the season on the DL with a forearm strain, as every projected reliever has pitched in the 9th innings before, with newly-acquired Brian Fuentes (over 200 career saves) a nice stop-gap if Bailey is sidelined. Prospects are a bit more dicey at the plate, where GM Billy Beane had to resort to Plan C (Hideki Matsui) in the offseason marketplace after missing on Plan A (Lance Berkman) and Plan B (Adrian Beltre) to add some sock to an offense that ranked 2nd to last in AL homers a year ago. But Beane did make a couple of other serviceable acquisitions in OFs David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, who along with DH Matsui and holdover ex-Nevada Wolf Pack 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff should beef up the middle of he order, and the defense looks solid up the middle with C Kurt Suzukii, SS Cliff Pennington, 2B Mark Ellis, and CF Coco Crisp. And if Oakland is within striking distance at the trade deadline, the shrewd Beane can be expected to add whatever is needed for the stretch run. It should be lots of fun again at the Coliseum (don’t forget to check out the best BBQ in the big leagues down the left-field line) as the A’s go "over" and threaten for the postseason.

Others to watch...The defending AL champion Texas Rangers (86½) entered spring training with a clear objective to fill a couple of openings in their starting pitching rotation, created partly by Cliff Lee’s decision to abandon Arlington and return to Philadelphia in free agency and an inability to land offseason targets Matt Garza (who ended up with the Cubs) or Zack Greinke (now with Milwaukee). Unfortunately, that search has become an all-points bulletin exiting Surprise and now extends deeper into the rotation with No. 3 starter Tommy Hunter going down with a groin injury, forcing him onto the DL to begin the season, and Scott Feldman’s postseason microfracture knee surgery perhaps keeping him shelved into June. Any ideas of moving closer Neftali Perez into the rotation were also nixed because of the havoc it might cause in the bullpen. Thus, it’s the familiar old theme in the Metroplex, as beyond Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson, the rotation suddenly appears full of question marks. The Rangers can still outscore anyone, and the addition of 3B Adrian Beltre (who along with Michael Young will also likely rotate into the DH spot) should compensate for Vlady Guerrero’s departure to Baltimore. But some of the questions regarding the staff make us wonder if the Rangers aren’t going to slip at least a handful of games in the standings; remember, the team only won 90 a year ago when everything fell neatly into place for manager Ron Washington, and sequels often disappoint. We’re going to look "under" in Arlington.

Check out the recent performance patterns of the wacky Seattle Mariners (70), who have been alternating between overachieving (such as the encouraging 88 wins in 2007 and 85 in 2009) or vastly underachieving (61 wins in both 2008 and a year ago) over the past four years. And frankly, last season’s pratfall wasn’t hard to predict, as GM Jack Zduriencik’s poorly constructed club entered the campaign with no power sources whatsoever and ended up a distant last in the majors in runs scored (only 513; even the woeful Pirates almost lapped the M’s by scoring 587). At least the incomparable Ichiro remains as the ultimate table-setter; perhaps the addition of DH Jack Cust (who posted some good power numbers in Oakland in recent years) will alleviate the power problem, and the prize of the Cliff Lee trade with Texas, 1B Justin Smoak, is a projected 25-30 HR producer. Chone Figgins should also be far more comfy back at his normal 3B position, although the sooner the team gets rid of the problem that is OF Milton Bradley (we foresee a blow-up with new, no-nonsense manager Eric Wedge coming soon), the better off they’ll be. The Mariners, however, should have decent pitching, especially with Felix "The Cat" Hernandez firmly established among the AL elite, and Jason Vargas and Doug Fister flashing plenty of upside in 2010, while rookie Michael Pineda and his flaming fastball could be the ultimate rotisserie sleeper. Meanwhile, closer David Aardsma (hip) should be returning soon from his stint on the DL to open the season. It won’t be quite the same in Seattle without beloved play-by-play man Dave Niehaus, who passed away suddenly in November, but a few more "Fly Aways" and "Grand Salamis" from an improved batting order should at least move the M’s closer to respectability. It’s an "over" for us at Safeco Field.

Tough to call...If there’s one thing we can absolutely guarantee about the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (83) this season, it’s that 1B Kendry Morales won’t be involved in any wild homerun celebrations after breaking his leg in one such party a year ago. Morales’ subsequent absence for the final four months of 2010 contributed to the Halos’ alarming 202 run drop-off from the previous year, and his slow recovery from the broken leg will keep him on the DL to start the season. Meanwhile, GM Tony Reagins’ attempts to upgrade the offense via free agency failed when Carl Crawford decided at the last minute to sign with Boston instead; whether ex Blue-Jay OF Vernon Wells can add sufficient spark remains to be seen, as the aging Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu (now likely limited to DH duties) no longer appear capable of carrying the offense. Thus, for the Angels to re-emerge as a contender, Mike Scioscia is probably going to have to lean on his pitching staff, but there is little depth in the rotation beyond starters Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Dan Haren, and the bullpen could remain a problem area if Fernando Rodney can’t handle closer duties better than he did after Brian Fuentes was traded last August, especially with the set-up corps relying upon young arms Kevin Jepsen and Jordan Walden as a bridge to Rodney after offseason addition Scott Downs has landed on the DL with a broken foot. Scioscia’s presence is always a plus, but there are too many ifs involved (especially the health of Morales and Downs) to make a persuasive case, so we’re going to pass in Anaheim.

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