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NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: SEC


We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
Overall Trends
Analyzing Early Upsets
Round of 64 Trends
Round of 32 Trends
Conference Trends: ACC
Conference Trends: A-10
Conference Trends: Big 12
Conference Trends: Big East
Conference Trends: Big Ten
Conference Trends: C-USA
Conference Trends: MWC
Conference Trends: Pac-10
This column continues our run of Conference Trends, featuring the SEC, which has five teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
#2 FLORIDA
#4 KENTUCKY
#5 VANDERBILT
#9 TENNESSEE
#10 GEORGIA


Tournament Trends by Conference
Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes the SEC with an “A” rating.

In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

“A” vs. “D” matchups have been dominated by the “A” teams to the tune of 36-3 SU and 25-11-3 ATS (69%) over the past four years.

Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

SEC Trends
Since Florida cut down the nets following its 2007 title, SEC teams are a subpar 11-13 SU & 10-13-1 ATS (43%) in the NCAA Tournament.

The SEC has only won once in the past 19 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of more than five points, going 9-10 ATS over this span. But as an underdog of five points or less, SEC teams are 19-15 SU and 21-12-1 ATS (64%) since 1998.

The SEC has been quite successful versus non-power conferences in the past five years in the NCAAs, going 18-7 SU & 15-9-1 ATS (63%).

In the past four years, the OVER is 24-14 (63%) in NCAA Tournaments involving SEC schools.

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NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: Small schools


NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: Small schoolsWe continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
Overall Trends
Analyzing Early Upsets
Round of 64 Trends
Round of 32 Trends
Conference Trends: ACC
Conference Trends: A-10
Conference Trends: Big 12
Conference Trends: Big East
Conference Trends: Big Ten
Conference Trends: C-USA
Conference Trends: MWC
Conference Trends: Pac-10
Conference Trends: SEC
This column continues our run of Conference Trends, featuring the small conferences outside of the nine large conferences. This group is comprised of 24 teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
Am. East - #11 BOSTON UNIV.
A-Sun - #13 BELMONT
Big Sky - #15 NORTHERN COLORADO
Big South - #16 UNC-ASHEVILLE
Big West - #15 CAL-SANTA BARBARA
CAA - #8 GEORGE MASON
CAA - #9 OLD DOMINION
CAA - #11 VCU
Horizon - #8 BUTLER
Ivy - #13 PRINCETON
MAAC - #14 ST. PETER’S
MAC - #15 AKRON
MEAC - #16 HAMPTON
MVC - #14 INDIANA STATE
Northeast - #15 LONG ISLAND
OVC - #13 MOREHEAD STATE
Patriot - #14 BUCKNELLL
Southern - #14 WOFFORD
Southland - #16 TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Summit - #13 OAKLAND
Sun Belt - #16 ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
SWAC - #16 ALABAMA STATE
WAC - #12 UTAH STATE
WCC - #11 GONZAGA


Tournament Trends by Conference
Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various small conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes leagues with either “A,” “B,” “C,” or “D” ratings.

In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

“A” vs. “D” matchups have been dominated by the “A” teams to the tune of 36-3 SU and 25-11-3 ATS (69%) over the past four years.

Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

In matchups between two “B” level schools, the better seeds are 7-2 SU & 7-1-1 ATS (88%) in the past nine instances. The only ATS loss here was #8 UNLV losing to #9 Northern Iowa last year.

When “B” conference schools play as better seeds against lesser conference teams, they are just 8-18 ATS (31%) since 2000, including 0-3 ATS last year.

When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

Small Conference Trends
America East (D) teams have gone UNDER the total in 10 of their past 14 tourney games, scoring just 55.7 PPG.

Atlantic Sun (D) teams are 0-9 SU in the NCAAs since 2002, but 6-3 ATS.

Big Sky (C) teams had lost their last four tournament games both SU & ATS by an average of 20.8 PPG, before Montana almost knocked off #3 seed New Mexico last year, losing 62-57 and covering the spread.

Big South (D) teams are 10-3 UNDER the total in the last 12 years of the tournament, scoring just 55.5 PPG. Winthrop scored a meager 44 points in its 61-44 Opening Round loss to Arkansas-Pine Bluff last year in Dayton.

Dating back to 2000, Colonial Athletic Association (C) teams are 13-5-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, pulling off four upsets in the 1st Round, including Old Dominion beating Notre Dame last year.

Horizon League (C) teams are 14-12 SU & 17-9 ATS (65%) in the NCAAs since the league began in 2002. Butler went 5-1 SU and ATS in last year’s incredible run to the championship game.

The Ivy League (C) hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament game from 1999 to 2009, but Cornell reached the Sweet 16 last year, knocking off #5 Temple and #4 Wisconsin before losing to Kentucky.

The MAC (B) also had an NCAA win drought from 2004 to 2009 (3-4 ATS), but last year saw #14 Ohio crush #3 Georgetown by 14 points.

MEAC (D) teams were 9-1 ATS between 1998 and 2005, but are a woeful 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since then.

Against teams from the ACC, Big 12 and SEC, the Missouri Valley Conference (B) is on a 16-4 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament, which includes Northern Iowa’s shocking second-round win over #1 seed Kansas last year.

Northeast Conference (D) schools are 2-0 SU & ATS in the Opening Round Game in Dayton, winning in 2006 and 2008.

Ohio Valley Conference (C) teams are on a 7-1 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament, which includes Murray State going 2-0 ATS last year by beating #4 Vanderbilt and only losing to #5 Butler by two points.

Patriot League (D) schools are on an 8-4 ATS run in the NCAA’s with two outright upsets.

The Southern Conference (C) in an amazing 10-2 ATS in NCAA tourney games since 2002. A lot of this success can be attributed to Davidson, but Wofford covered the spread in its loss to Wisconsin last year.

The Summit League (C), which used to be the Mid-Continent, is on a 13-game losing streak in the tournament’s Round of 64, going 2-11 ATS (15%).

The Sun Belt (C) has been one of the country’s best bets in the NCAAs lately, as Sun Belt teams are 3-9 SU, but a healthy 8-4 ATS (67%) since 2003.

Since covering six straight games from 2002 to 2004, the WAC (B) is on a dismal 2-11 SU & 4-10 ATS (29%) skid in the NCAA Tournament.

West Coast Conference (C) schools are 9-11 SU and 6-13 ATS (32%) in the NCAAs since 2005. The OVER is 12-7 (63%) during this span.