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**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 06:54 PM

Location Advantages

March 15, 2011

Overanalyzing location advantage can be a mistake as these will generally all be unfamiliar venues and spacious arenas with mixed fan bases. It is worth taking a look at the travel required for teams in the NCAA tournament however and also considering the difficulty for fans to make the trip and gauging what type of crowd to expect. Here is a brief look at some of the advantages and disadvantages presented by the selection committee this season.

Cleveland, Ohio

Ohio State was given the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament and rightfully was given the most favorable location for the first weekend of games, staying the Buckeye State just a short 143 miles northeast of Columbus. Ohio State will enjoy a big advantage over their first round opponent in terms of travel and fan support facing a play-in game winner that required a decent trip to Dayton and then to Cleveland. Fans of George Mason and Villanova will face a hefty trip from the D.C. or Philadelphia areas to get to the second round game versus the top seed. Ohio State was placed in the most favorable region location in Newark but there simply was not a close option this year and at 527 miles away it will be a trek for fans following the team. Ohio State is also at risk to have a crowd disadvantage at a potential regional final if Syracuse can make a run as the #3 seed.

Xavier also gets to play in its home state of Ohio but the trip from Cincinnati to Cleveland is significantly longer at 248 miles, but still a big advantage over Marquette coming from Milwaukee. It might appear that Xavier would have a bit of an advantage in a potential second round game against Syracuse, but the Orange faithful are only traveling a slightly further 334 miles to Cleveland. Ohio State fans in attendance will certainly pull for the Musketeers in that potential game which could be an advantage for the underdog. Syracuse is just 237 miles from Newark so the Orange will enjoy a favorable crowd in a potential sweet 16 game possibly versus North Carolina or in the regional final should they make it that far.

Tampa, Florida

Florida’s strong late season run earned a protected seed and a favorable draw in Tampa. Gainesville is just 130 miles north of the Tampa area and the Gators should be considered one of the big winners of Selection Sunday as a team that likely was a bit over-seeded. To add to the location edge is first round opponent UC-Santa Barbara, making one of the longest trips in the field at 2,269 miles across the country. At least the Gauchos were not forced to play an early time slot game on the east coast. Michigan State and UCLA are both storied programs that could be considered upset threats in the second round but location and fan support should not be an issue for the Gators. This group feeds to New Orleans in the Southeast region and while that is 535 miles away, the Gators are the only contender in the entire region that is even remotely close to Louisiana.

The other pod in Tampa is a bit of mismatch with no teams with clear advantages. Kentucky is the highest seeded team but at 838 miles away the Wildcats did not get much benefit in the bracket from a great run to the SEC championship, where they blew out the Gators who received the cushy draw. Kentucky certainly would have preferred Cleveland, Charlotte, Chicago, or Washington D.C. as a first round venue and the Wildcats are a team that may have some legitimate beef with the seeding and draw from the selection committee, although first round opponent Princeton is traveling even further. The winner of the Clemson/UAB match-up on Tuesday night will be much closer to Tampa than West Virginia but having to travel to Dayton and back will negate that advantage. The winner of this pod will head to Newark so there will not be a significant advantage for any of the teams from this group unless Princeton can make a second straight sweet 16 appearance for the Ivy League.

Charlotte, North Carolina

It seems that every year the state of North Carolina gets tournament games whether in Raleigh, Greensboro, or this year in Charlotte. The benefit usually goes to Duke and North Carolina, who typically are seeded well enough to get favorable placement. North Carolina has a nice set-up for the first round getting to face Long Island. Chapel Hill is just 141 miles from Charlotte but the biggest beneficiary of location in this pod may be Georgia, playing just 201 miles away as the #10 seed against Washington, coming 2,825 miles from Seattle. Washington is another team that could make a legitimate gripe with their positioning despite winning the Pac-10 tournament, especially when the #7 seed in the West is Temple playing in Tucson.

Duke also ends up in Charlotte with a #1 seed although first round opponent Hampton does not face too significant of travel. Tennessee was also given a favorable location as a #9 seed, playing just 245 miles away compared to #8 Michigan traveling 670 miles to Charlotte. Duke would face a big disadvantage in a potential regional final match-up with #2 seed San Diego State however as this pod feeds to Anaheim. Duke could also meet Arizona in the sweet 16 in Anaheim so the road will be tough for the Blue Devils to repeat, but of course last season Duke beat Baylor in Houston in the regional final and then won the championship in Butler’s backyard in Indianapolis so location is not everything in this tournament.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

No schools from Oklahoma made the tournament this season but this venue should be well represented in the heart of Big XII country. Top seed Kansas faces a manageable 221 mile drive south to lead this venue and first round opponent Boston University will face a much longer flight. UNLV and Illinois meet in the #8/9 match-up with no real advantage for either school. Kansas is projected for a deep tournament run but of course the Jayhawks have been knocked off early in several recent tournaments including last year. The winner of this group will head to San Antonio, and while that is a significant journey it is as good as the Jayhawks could have hoped for given the four regions and only a miracle run by #7 seed Texas A&M would present a location disadvantage in a possible regional final.

Austin might look somewhat close to Tulsa on a map but it is still 453 miles away but Texas should still be well represented in this grouping. Memphis as the #12 seed in this pod actually has the shortest travel but it is sill over 400 miles away. Texas and Oakland will play the earliest game on Friday and presumably the Bok Center will be dominated by Kansas fans so it could be a bit of sparse crowd early and it is likely that any Kansas fans will adopt whoever is playing Texas making the upset risk a little bit greater for the Longhorns. This group will lead to Anaheim and face the winner of Duke’s pod.

Washington, D.C.

Connecticut earned a #3 seed with an epic Big East tournament run and of the first round venues this is as good as the Huskies could have hoped for though still 372 miles away. Bucknell is actually only 191 miles away from the capitol city so the Bison should be in a reasonably favorable spot to try to make another run at a tournament upset after beating #3 seed Kansas in the first round of the 2005 tournament. Missouri and Cincinnati both face significant trips east for the #6/11 match-up. The winner of this grouping will end up in Anaheim with potentially San Diego State lurking at a favorable venue in the Sweet 16.

Pittsburgh was allegedly the fourth #1 seed but the Panthers will play just 248 miles away for the opening weekend. Old Dominion is in Norfolk, Virginia which is still 194 miles away from Washington, D.C. so the location edge for the Monarchs is not as great as it might have looked initially. It certainly will help in the first round match-up against Butler but Pittsburgh should be very well represented in a second round match-up. The winner of this group heads to New Orleans and there are no other teams in the region that would enjoy a big location advantage at that site.

Denver, Colorado

BYU had to be in a Thursday/Saturday grouping so Denver makes sense for the Cougars as a #3 seed. Provo is still 483 miles away so it will not be a dramatic advantage for the Cougars although being accustomed to a higher altitude should be a bit of an advantage, especially being an up-tempo team. St. John’s was given no advantage as the #6 seed traveling to Denver and while Gonzaga is much closer, it is still 1,095 miles from Spokane to Denver. BYU has the location edge in this pod but it is not as significant as many other groups feature. The winner moves on to face the winner of Florida’s Tampa pod and no team will enjoy much of an edge in New Orleans.

The second grouping in Denver features a mismatch or misplaced team as this was clearly a ‘leftover’ grouping. Vanderbilt and Richmond face off in a fairly even #5/12 match-up as the Spiders were not given much respect for winning the Atlantic 10 tournament. Louisville and Morehead State both hail from Kentucky but it will be a significant journey for both teams. The depth and pressing defense for Louisville could have somewhat of an advantage at altitude, so that could be something to keep an eye on. The winner of this group will meet in San Antonio with Kansas barring a major upset.

Tucson, Arizona

San Diego State had to be a bit disappointed to not earn a #1 seed despite the glowing 32-2 record but the Aztecs have to be pleased with how the bracket looks. San Diego is 409 miles from Tucson but it is much easier travel than any of the seven other teams in this group will face. If the Aztecs survive the first game with Northern Colorado they will face the winner of Temple and Penn State, two teams traveling a significant ways from Pennsylvania. This pod feeds into the West region in Anaheim and the Aztecs are the only #1 or #2 seed that could have a massive location advantage in the regional games, playing just 95 miles north.

Wisconsin and Kansas State were both sent out west to Tucson and both have emerged as two of the more popular teams to pick against for first round upsets. In terms of the spreads neither would really be a significant upset but location will not be much of a factor if either team falls. Utah is directly north of Arizona but Utah State resides in Logan at the very north end of the state and Tucson is very far south, leaving 848 miles of travel for the Aggies. Manhattan, Kansas is a little bit further but it really is not the advantage it might initially look like for Utah State. Wisconsin and Belmont both face long travel to the desert and the winner of this group would end up in New Orleans, which would not be terribly helpful for any of these teams either.

Chicago, Illinois

Some people though Notre Dame had a case to be a #1 seed but the Irish have to be satisfied with being in Chicago, just 96 miles west of South Bend. Notre Dame should be well represented at the United Center and while Akron is a manageable 367 miles away this does not look like a prime upset spot. Florida State and Texas A&M will face off to meet the Irish and both would be at a big disadvantage in terms of location and fan support. The winner of this group would head to San Antonio so Texas A&M has a great path ahead if they can get hot and pull off a second round upset after surviving what should be a tight evenly matched first game with the Seminoles. This is the only grouping that is matched up in the bracket as the winner will face the winner of the other Chicago grouping in the sweet 16.

Travel was supposed to be a consideration for picking teams in the ‘First Four’ games but USC and VCU likely do not feel that was a factor as both face significant travel to Dayton and will also be far from home in Chicago. Georgetown has to journey over 700 miles to get to the Windy City so there will not be a big advantage for the #6 seed facing the play-in winner. Purdue could have made a case for a #2 seed but the Boilermakers have to like this draw, just 123 miles north of West Lafayette. St. Peter’s travels nearly 800 miles from New Jersey for the match-up so Purdue should be in a good position for the first and second games. A Notre Dame/Purdue match-up would be a very intriguing game in the Sweet 16 and a very tough ticket in Chicago, but of course that game would be in San Antonio.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 06:56 PM

Bracket Analysis

March 13, 2011

The brackets are out for the 2011 NCAA Tournament and as always, we aren’t without controversy. Let’s begin our discussion with the bubble teams that got in and the ones that got shafted.

UAB and VCU’s inclusions in the field were the biggest shockers. The Blazers won the Conference USA regular-season title, but they went down against East Carolina in the C-USA Tournament quarterfinals. VCU (23-11 straight up, 13-20 against the spread) lost five of its last eight games and was beaten seven times in Colonial play.

The Rams are in one of the play-in games against Southern Cal. These teams will square off in Dayton on Wednesday. The winner will be slotted as a No. 11 seed against Georgetown, a team that has lost four in a row.

Most books opened USC as a four-point favorite vs. VCU. The Trojans will have head coach Kevin O’Neill back after he was suspended during the Pac-10 Tournament for a verbal incident with an Arizona fan.

The other play-in game for at-large teams will pit Clemson against UAB. Most betting shops have installed the Tigers as five-point favorites. They nearly knocked off North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals, only to blow a big lead and lose in overtime.

There are a slew of teams, most notably Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Va. Tech, Alabama and Harvard, who feel like they got snubbed. Yes, I said Harvard, which I clearly think had a better year than both UAB and VCU. My votes would’ve gone to Saint Mary’s and Colorado instead of VCU and UAB.

The top seeds are Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh. I think the Panthers have the toughest path to Houston with potential opponents including the Butler-ODU winner, Kansas State, St. John’s and Florida. The Red Storm beat the Panthers a few weeks ago.

Ohio St. will get a tough game from Kentucky in the Sweet 16, but I think its opponent to get to the Final Four will come against a No. 6 seed, Xavier. I have the Buckeyes getting to the Final Four with only one major hurdle (UK).

John Calipari’s team has caught fire at the right time, winning six in a row including a pair of wins over second-seeded Florida. The Wildcats have talent galore with future lottery picks in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, but they lack depth with only six players getting major minutes.

Duke bounced back from its loss at North Carolina in the regular-season finale to thump the Tar Heels in the finals of the ACC Tournament. The defending champs won’t have it easy in the second round against the Tennessee-Michigan winner. Both teams have fabulous freshman players in Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Duke’s region probably has the most talented No. 4 seed in Texas for a potential Sweet 16 game. However, the Longhorns slumped down the stretch and face a dangerous Oakland team in the first round.

**Déjà vu**

--In the 2003 NCAA Tournament, Florida was a No. 2 seed and was sent to Tampa to play in its home state. That same year, Michigan State had a disappointing campaign and was a No. 10 seed. The Spartans beat Temple in their first-round game and then got the Gators in the second round. Tom Izzo’s team dominated Matt Bonner, David Lee and Co. and cruised to a blowout victory over UF. Sparty also bested Florida in the national-title game in 2000. In other words, UF fans weren’t happy to see Michigan St. as a potential foe.

--West Va. upset top-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight last season. If form holds, these teams will square off in a second-round matchup in Tampa.

--Josh Pastner has Memphis back in the NCAA Tournament to face the team he played for during his collegiate days, Arizona. Pastner also served as an assistant under Lute Olson.

--Lon Kruger left Illinois to take the head-coaching job with the Atlanta Hawks back in 2000. He’ll face his former team when UNLV takes on the Illini in an 8/9 matchup. Bruce Weber really needs to win this game. Most spots have tabbed the Rebels as 1 ½-point favorites.

--The Selection Committee is making UConn play on a Thursday even though it just played five days in a row while winning the Big East Tournament. Likewise, the committee did Georgia a similar injustice following its wild run through the SEC Tournament in 2006. Due to a tornado in Atlanta, UGA had to play a doubleheader on Saturday and also play on Sunday. Nevertheless, the Dawgs were forced to play on Thursday at noon Eastern. They predictably faded down the stretch, letting an eight-point halftime lead get away in a loss to Xavier.

--UConn will face 14th-seeded Bucknell, which was also a No. 14 seed when it upset Kansas in the first round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament.

**Wild Cards**

--If Duke freshman point guard Kyrie Irving can return and be productive, the Blue Devils’ chances of repeating will go up exponentially. Irving, who has been out since November with a toe injury, averaged 17.4 points, 5.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds in eight games before being sidelined. His status remains very iffy but he was seen doing conditioning drills and shooting around at the ACC Tourney.

--Will Georgetown’s Chris Wright be his normal self when the sixth-seeded Hoyas take the court against the USC-VCU winner? If not, John Thompson III’s team will be in trouble. Georgetown comes into the tournament on a four-game losing streak, but it deserves the No. 6 seed if Wright is back at 100 percent.

--Watch out for Michigan’s ultra-talented backcourt. If Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. play their best games, Duke will need its A-Game to get past the Wolverines, who I think will knock off Tennessee in an intriguing first-round showdown. Michigan comes into the tournament on an incredible 12-1 ATS roll.

--When you have the best point guard in America, you’ve got a shot against anybody. On that note, Xavier is going to be a dangerous out with Tu Holloway running the show. I believe the Musketeers would’ve been a No. 4 seed had they won the A-10 Tournament, but they got upset by Dayton. That loss doesn’t concern me, though. Xavier will upset Syracuse behind Holloway’s 3-point shooting against the Orange’s zone defense. When you have range like Holloway (and me), you can shoot over zones by using your range. Chris Mack’s squad will also take down second-seeded North Carolina. This program keeps rolling along through coaching changes and gut-wrenching losses in the NCAA Tournament. Xavier lost to eventual runner-up Ohio St. in overtime of the 2007 tourney only after the Buckeyes hit a late 3-ball to force the extra session. In 2009, the Musketeers led Pitt in the final minute of their Sweet 16 showdown, but LeVance Fields made all the plays on the final possessions to propel the Panthers to victory. Then last year, Holloway and Jordan Crawford led a furious second-half rally to force overtime before falling to Kansas St. in yet another crushing defeat.

--How much gas does UConn have left in the tank after playing five consecutive days? The Huskies are playing great, as evidenced by their improbable run through the Big East Tournament. Kemba Walker averaged 26.0 points per game to lead the way, doing his best Gerry McNamara impersonation in the process. UConn is a No. 3 seed that’ll face Bucknell as an 11-point ‘chalk.’

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Arkansas fired John Pelphrey after four seasons and is reportedly poised to target Missouri head coach Mike Anderson, who was Nolan Richardson’s top assistant during the program’s glory days in the 1990s. As I’ve been prone to point out many times through the years, Richardson took a lot of heat for the way he forced the school’s hand in dismissing him in 2002. He essentially dared the school to get rid of him by saying, “they can pay me my money.” Well, here we are nine years later and the Razorbacks have one combined win in the NCAA Tournament since handing Richardson his pink slip. In other words, Nolan was right all along. His thinking was basically this: If they think they can find a coach to provide as much success as me, then good luck. Obviously, Arkansas has had no such luck but if Anderson returns, he’ll bring back the 40 Minutes of Hell Philosophy. Most importantly, he'll more than likely be able to keep a stellar incoming recruiting class together. If Anderson takes the job and keeps this class that's ranked as the nation's third-best, something tells me Bud Walton Arena will be rocking again soon.

--According to SportsByBrooks, Wyoming is trying to hire former Oregon head coach Ernie Kent and the leading candidate for the Texas Tech job is Billy ‘Clyde’ Gillispie, the much-maligned former head coach at Texas A&M and Kentucky.

--Georgia head coach Mark Fox’s wife is a graduate of the University of Washington. The Dawgs will take on the Huskies in a first-round contest. Most books opened Washington as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’

--It’s too easy making ESPN analyst Doug Gottlieb look like a clown. He went to great lengths last year to rip West Va. guard Joe Mazzulla for his lack of punch offensively going into the Mountaineers’ Elite Eight game against Kentucky. Mazzulla was replacing starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant, who was out with a broken foot. I quickly broke out Gottlieb’s abysmal shooting numbers from 3-point land and at the free-throw line during his playing career at Oklahoma St. All Mazzulla did was dominate John Wall on both ends of the floor and score a career-high 17 points in WVU’s upset win over UK. This time around, Gottlieb has irked this space by calling Florida ‘the most overrated team in the tournament.’ For starters, let’s clarify to readers that UF is the team that ended Gottlieb’s playing career in a blowout win at the Carrier Dome in the Elite Eight of the 2000 NCAA Tournament. Let’s also note UF’s stellar 11-3 record against RPI Top 50 teams and 17-4 mark against RPI Top 100 squads. The Gators own a 13-3 record against teams in the NCAA field.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 11:27 PM

NCAA Betting: Kansas Jayhawks face Boston Terriers

Kansas is a 22 ½-point favorite in its opening-round game versus Boston University.
Is there any chance Kansas could be the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round NCAA Tournament game since the current system began in 1985?

The 32-2 Jayhawks meet 16th-seed Boston University Friday at 3:50 p.m. PT at BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla., in the Southwest Regional.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a Boston miracle. The Jayhawks are 22 ½-point favorites, befitting their second-ranked status in both major polls. The ‘over/under’ is 136.

Nonetheless, it’s not inappropriate to mention some unpleasant Kansas history.

This is because the Jayhawks have a history of suffering huge upsets during the first round having lost to Bucknell as 14-point favorites in 2005 and to Bradley the following year as seven-point ‘chalk.’

None of the present Kansas players tasted those defeats, though, not even fifth-year senior Brady Morningstar.

Kansas is primed to make a deep run with the Morris twins – Marcus and Markieff – composing a formidable inside duo and a deep backcourt of Tyrel Reed, Tyshawn Taylor and Morningstar.

Marcus Morris averages 17.3 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, while Markieff Morris scores 13.2 points a game, shoots 60.1 percent from the floor and pulls down 8.2 rebounds.

The Morris twins are going to be very hard to handle for Boston University, which has an undersized frontcourt. Kansas was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.4 points per game. The Jayhawks ranks first in field goal percentage making 51.4 percent of their shots.

The Terriers, who have never faced the Big 12 Conference champion Jayhawks, are 21-13. They won the America East Conference to earn an automatic bid to the tournament.

Boston University, coached by former Villanova assistant Patrick Chambers, is riding an 11-game winning streak. This is the first time in nine years the Terriers have made the tournament.

The Terriers feature their conference’s player of the year in 6-foot-5 swingman Jon Holland, a senior averaging 19 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. No doubt the Jayhawks will be paying close attention to Holland.

Boston University has won its last four games by margins of two points (in overtime), nine, six and two. The Terriers have benefited by shooting 116 foul shots during this span to their opponent’s 44. Even Duke doesn’t get such an outrageous free throw advantage.

The Terriers got past Stony Brook in their conference tournament championship game, 56-54, as a six-point favorite despite making just 31 percent of their shots from the field and having only two assists.

Holland helped the Terriers overcome a 15-point deficit by scoring 23 of his game-high 27 points in the second half. The Terriers are the only Boston-area school to make the field of 68.

The Terriers’ strength is a defense that ranks 16th yielding just 60.4 points per game and is ninth in field goal percentage limiting foes to 39 percent shooting from the floor.

Offensively, however, the Terriers rate 320th averaging 61 points per contest.

Even though their offense isn’t impressive, aside from Holland, the Terriers do have several trends going for them. They are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games. They are 17-5-1 ATS during their past 23 non-conference matchups, including 11-2 ATS at neutral site games.

Kansas is 14-1 in its last 15 games. The Jayhawks defeated Texas, 85-73, in the Big 12 Conference title game as 4 ½-point favorites at neutral site Kansas City this past Saturday. It was the Jayhawks’ fifth tournament title in six years.

Prior to the win and cover against Texas, the Jayhawks were 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 11 of Kansas’ last 15 games, though the ‘under’ paid off in 10 of the Jayhawks’ past 13 NCAA Tournament games.

The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of Boston University’s last 10 non-league matchups.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 11:27 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds: USC Trojans vs VCU Rams

A pair of schools at the center of recent controversy go head-to-head in a First Four contest on Wednesday when the Southern Cal Trojans face the Virginia Commonwealth Rams. Tip-off from Dayton Arena in Ohio is at 6 p.m. (PT) with truTV providing the pictures.

The battle of 11-seeds will determine who meets 6-seed Georgetown on Friday at Chicago's United Center. Early odds for this game had the Trojans 4½-point favorites with 127 for the total.

Anyone who tuned in Sunday evening when the 68-team tournament field was revealed already knows about the storm surrounding VCU. You couldn't swing a dead cat around without hitting one talking head or another bemoaning the Rams getting in over other schools like Colorado and Virginia Tech to name but two.

It's the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams that Virginia Commonwealth has received an at-large invite. It also marks the first time the Colonial Athletic Association has sent three teams to the tournament with VCU being joined by Old Dominion and George Mason.

Head coach Shaka Smart, taking VCU to the dance in just his second season at the helm in Richmond, brings his club into this game off a 70-65 loss to Old Dominion in the CAA Championship a little more than a week ago. The Rams fell just shy of the cover as 4½-point underdogs after fighting back from an 18-point deficit.

Virginia Commonwealth (23-11 straight up, 13-20 against the spread) punched its ticket to the CAA title game with a 79-63 upset of George Mason in the conference semis. The Rams were even bigger 5½-point underdogs to the Patriots who were knocked out of the tourney by VCU for a third consecutive season.

Senior forward Jamie Skeen is one of four Rams to average double-digits on the scoreboard this season, leading the team with 15.3 PPG as well as 7.5 rebounds per game. Bradford Burgess, a 6-foot-6 guard, ranks second in both departments with 14.0 points and 6.1 boards.

The Rams can take solace in the fact the controversy surrounding them wasn't of their own doing. Trojans head coach Kevin O'Neill was suspended from the recent Pac-10 Tournament after he and his wife got into a little smack-down with an Arizona Wildcats fan at a hotel in Los Angeles.

USC athletic director Pat Haden issued the suspension just prior to the Trojans falling to the Wildcats last Friday in the Pac-10 semifinals, 67-62. Haden then reinstated O'Neill just before the Field of 68 was announced on Sunday.

USC (19-14 SU, 15-14-3 ATS) is returning to the NCAA Tournament just a season after a self-imposed postseason ban and sanctions from the NCAA following a previous investigation.

The Trojans were one-point pups in the loss to Arizona who eventually fell to Washington in the Pac-10 Championship. USC closed the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games, including a 62-60 triumph in Seattle over the Huskies as 10-point underdogs.

Big 6-foot-10 junior Nikola Vucevic tops USC in scoring (17.3) and rebounding (10.2, 17th in the country). He's joined by 6-foot-10 teammate Alex Stephenson to give the Trojans a twin-tower presence, Stephenson averaging 10 points and over nine boards a game.

The Trojans' last March Madness action came in the 2009 event as a 10-seed. USC upset 7-seed Boston College in the opening round as two-point 'dogs, 72-55. Then under the direction of Tim Floyd, the Trojans bowed out as five-point underdogs to 2-seed Michigan State, 74-69, in the next round.

That was also the last dance VCU attended, seeded 11th in the East Region and dropping a 65-64 heartbreaker to UCLA in the opening round. The Rams were also an 11-seed the last time they won an NCAA Tournament game,beating Duke in the opening round of the 2007 gala by a 79-77 count. They took 3-seed Pitt to overtime in the following game before succumbing, 84-79.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 11:28 PM

NCAA Betting Odds: St. John’s, Gonzaga clash

Sixth-seeds are 71-33 straight up in the opening round since 1985.
The Southeast Region has one of the best first-round matchups Thursday night when the sixth-seed St. John’s Red Storm face the 11th-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Bookmaker.com has St. John’s as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 135 points. CBS will have the 6:45 p.m. (PT) tip-off from the Pepsi Center in Denver.

Sixth-seeds in March Madness are 71-33 straight-up (68.6 percent) against 11th seeds since 1985. They were just 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 against the spread last year.

The Bulldogs (24-9 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) are ranked outside the AP top-25 from the West Coast Conference. They tied the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the regular season (11-3 SU) before beating them in the conference tourney final (75-63).

Gonzaga is making it 13th straight NCAA tournament appearance, the 12th under coach Mark Few. His teams have made the Sweet Sixteen four times, the most recently in 2009. However, the 'Zags are 1-6 ATS (3-4 SU) in their last seven March Madness games.

The Bulldogs are riding a nine-game winning streak heading into Thursday (6-2 ATS). The ‘under’ is 7-3 in their last 10 games with totals, allowing 60.2 PPG compared to 65.1 PPG on the season.

Gonzaga has three scorers in double-digits with 6-foot-5 guard Steven Gray (13.8 PPG), seven-foot center Robert Sacre (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and 6-foot-7 forward Elias Harris (12.1 PPG). Harris has had a disappointing season overall after averaging 14.9 PPG last season as a freshman.

The Bulldogs have been energized recently by secondary players. Junior college transfer Marquise Carter is starting at guard now and averaging 12.3 PPG during this winning streak. Freshman point guard Davis Stockton (son of NBA great John Stockton) and forward Sam Dower are both making major bench contributions.

The Red Storm (21-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) are ranked 18th in the AP and making their first NCAA tourney appearance since 2002. First-year coach Steve Lavin has done a tremendous job infusing energy into the program, especially with a 12-6 SU (11-7 ATS) regular season mark in the tough Big East.

St. John’s didn’t fare as well in the conference tourney (0-2 ATS) despite playing at nearby Madison Square Garden. The first game was a fortunate 65-63 win over Rutgers. Poor refereeing aided the victory and the Red Storm didn’t come close to ‘covering’ as 10-point favorites.

The second game was a 79-73 loss to Syracuse as three-point underdogs. The 152 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 133 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in St. John’s last five games.

Guard Dwight Hardy scored 22 points against Syracuse, but he’s come back down to Earth the last three games (17.7 PPG) after scoring 25.5 PPG during a 6-0 SU and ATS streak to end February.

St. John’s suffered a big blow last game when senior swingman D.J. Kennedy was lost for the year (knee injury). He’s the top rebounder (5.6 RPG) and third-leading scorer (10.4 PPG).

Sean Evans should start Thursday in his place and he’s played well lately. However, Kennedy is a huge emotional loss even for this veteran team and the Red Storm need several players to step up offensively and not rely on Hardy to bail them out.

The Red Storm do not have anyone who can match up height-wise with Sacre, but if they play physical as a team, then he shouldn’t be able to dominate too much.

This is the first meeting between the teams since 2001. Gonzaga won (65-58) and ‘covered’ that game in addition to a 2000 second-round NCAA tourney upset (82-76).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 11:29 PM

Miami Heat welcome Thunder for NBA betting battle

Two of pro basketball’s elite squads currently in the midst of winning streaks collide Tuesday when the Southeast Division-leading Miami Heat host the Northwest Division-leading Oklahoma City Thunder in the first game of an ESPN doubleheader. Tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. (PT).

Oklahoma City extended its winning streak to four with Monday’s 116-89 victory against Washington. The Thunder easily covered as 8 ½-point home favorites, giving them their fourth straight pointspread success and lifting their overall spread record to 35-31.

Three of Oklahoma City’s four victories during the streak occurred on the road where the club is 20-14 SU and 18-16 ATS. The squad is outscoring its opponents on the road by an average of one point per game (102-101).

The combined 207 points in Monday’s outing barely dipped below the closing total, which enabled the ‘under’ to cash in the Thunder’s last three games. However, the ‘over’ is 38-28 in their first 66 encounters.

Center Kendrick Perkins made his Oklahoma City debut against the Wizards after missing nine games with a left knee sprain.

Perkins registered six points and nine rebounds during his 20 minutes of playing time. Perkins had not appeared in a game for Oklahoma City since being shipped to the Thunder from the Celtics at the Feb. 24 trade deadline.

Oklahoma City forward Kevin Durant, who leads the NBA in scoring with an average of 28 points per game, notched a game-high 32 markers against the Wizards. Durant was 5-of-6 from beyond the three-point line and 9-of-9 from the charity stripe.

Scott Brooks’ Thunder rank fifth in the league offensively with a 104.8 PPG average. Much of that offensive success has occurred at the free throw line where the team shoots a league-leading 82.7 percent.

However, Oklahoma City ranks 20th defensively by yielding an average of 101.7 PPG. The club is allowing the opposition to shoot 46.2 percent from the field, which ranks 19th.

Miami has won and covered its last three games, including impressive victories against the league-leading Spurs and the Pacific Division-leading Lakers.

Monday’s 110-80 victory against the Spurs was Miami’s most stunning, as the Heat avenged a 30-point loss to San Antonio just 10 days earlier.

Despite easily covering as a five-point favorite, Miami is just 14-20 ATS in its first 34 home dates.

Though the Heat are now a nifty 46-21 SU through their first 67 outings, they are a money-burning 32-34-1 ATS. Miami is outscoring the opposition by an average of seven points per game (101-94).

The trio of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James again led the way for Miami.

Bosh had 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting and was 10-of-10 from the free-throw line. He also hauled down 12 rebounds. Wade added 29 points on 11-of-23 shooting. He was 7-of-7 from the free-throw line to go along with nine rebounds, four assists and two blocks. James had 21 points on 8-of-19 shooting with six rebounds and eight assists.

Miami and Oklahoma City have met once this season (Jan. 30), with the Heat registering a 108-103 victory as one-point road underdogs. That leaves the road team 10-1 ATS in the last 11 series meetings.

The combined 211 points leaped above the 201 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 7-1 in the last eight series meetings.

Wade led the Heat with 32 points and nine assists, while James added 23 points and 13 assists. The Thunder were led by Durant’s 33 points and 10 rebounds.

Miami shot 52 percent from the floor while holding the Thunder to just 40 percent. Both teams were 8-of-18 from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City held a 54-49 rebounding edge, while Miami had one more assist (21-20). Miami was 22-of-32 from the free throw line, while Oklahoma City was 27-of-34.

The Heat will hit the road for a Friday contest at Atlanta, while the Thunder will begin a six-game homestand Friday against Charlotte.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-15-2011, 11:30 PM

NHL Betting Preview: Blues at Anaheim Ducks

St. Louis is just 2-12-1 in its last 15 trips to face the Anaheim Ducks.
The season is starting to fade away for both the St. Louis Blues and the Anaheim Ducks. The two are on the outside of the playoffs looking in at the moment, but can take a big step in the right direction when they face off Wednesday night.

This battle to beat the NHL betting odds takes place at the Honda Center, with the puck dropping at 7:00 p.m. (PT).

The Blues are clearly the team in more hot water right now. St. Louis only has 71 points through 69 games, leaving the Blues 10 points in the rears of the Calgary Flames for the eighth and final playoff position with a ton of teams to hop over going into play Tuesday night. Chances are definitely slim for them to get into the second season, but we have seen stranger things happen than this.

Getting healthy would really help the cause for NHL betting fans, but we're not so sure that things are really going to get any better in that department. Alexander Steen, the team's second leading scorer, is out with an ankle injury while Barret Jackman, Philip McRae and David Perron are all not going to be partaking in Wednesday game in Anaheim.

The good news is that Chris Stewart has played well since coming over from the Colorado Avalanche. This was a great long-term move for the Blues, as they now have two of the best young wing men in the game in Stewart and David Backes.

Backes has 25 goals and 26 assists on the season, while Stewart has nine goals and three assists in just 13 games with his new team.

The problem for the Ducks certainly has nothing to do with offense. After all, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, Bobby Ryan and Ryan Getzlaf present frightening names without even looking at their stats. However, these four have combined for 106 goals, well over half of what the team has for the year. They also have combined for a total of 255 points, one of the highest marks for the top four point men on any NHL team.

The problem really centers around goaltending. Anaheim just hasn't found the answer for how to replace Jonas Hiller, who has been out of the lineup for a month with dizziness and general fatigue.

Curtis McElhinney didn't get the job done at all, and he was promptly shipped to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Dan Ellis. The former second-round pick has a respectable 2.54 GAA since coming over to Anaheim, but Ellis' numbers were absolutely awful with the Lightning, which is why he spent some time in the AHL.

Could this be the first time that we see Ray Emery as a starter in the NHL in quite some time? It's possible. Emery came in off of the bench and stopped all 10 shots in a loss to the Phoenix Coyotes on Sunday, which was his first action in over a year at the NHL level.

The home team has gone 22-7-1 over the course of the last 30 meetings in this series, while the Blues are just 2-12-1 in their last 15 visits to the Pond. The Ducks also have to be playing with a tremendous sense of motivation for revenge in this one, as they were destroyed 9-3 when these two teams played at Scottrade Arena back in February.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 11:09 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
03/15/11 4-*6-*0 40.00% -*1165 Detail
03/14/11 6-*5-*1 54.55% +*485 Detail
03/13/11 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*960 Detail
03/12/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*80 Detail
03/11/11 6-*2-*2 75.00% +*2365 Detail
03/10/11 7-*2-*0 77.78% +*2715 Detail
03/09/11 6-*5-*0 54.55% +*425 Detail
03/07/11 4-*6-*0 40.00% -*1135 Detail
03/06/11 5-*5-*0 50.00% +*45 Detail
03/05/11 3-*7-*0 30.00% -*1720 Detail
03/04/11 9-*3-*0 75.00% +*3135 Detail
03/03/11 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1750 Detail
03/02/11 7-*5-*0 58.33% +*770 Detail
Totals 71-*59-*4 54.62% +6790

Wednesday, March 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Boston +110 500
Atlanta -

NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET Minnesota -129 500
Minnesota -

St. Louis - 1:05 PM ET St. Louis +109 500
Detroit -

Tampa Bay - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +104 500
Florida -

Toronto - 1:05 PM ET Toronto -113 500
Pittsburgh -

Washington - 1:05 PM ET Houston -125 500
Houston -

San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco +107 500
Chi. White Sox -

LA Angels - 4:10 PM ET LA Angels +101 500
Arizona -

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +128 500
NY Yankees -

Colorado - 9:05 PM ET Colorado +112 500
Texas -

Kansas City - 10:05 PM ET Cincinnati -123 500
Cincinnati -

Milwaukee - 10:05 PM ET Seattle -115 500
Seattle -

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 11:41 AM

Heat look to extend win streak hosting Thunder

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (43-23)

at MIAMI HEAT (46-21)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 202.5

The Heat will finish their six-game homestand against six opponents with winning records on Wednesday when they take on the Oklahoma City. Miami went on the road and defeated the Thunder earlier this season.

Oklahoma City is 35-30 ATS this season and has won four straight and nine of its past 13 ATS. On the road they are 18-16 ATS and have won three straight. Oklahoma City sits comfortably in fourth place in the Western Conference 3½ games ahead of the Nuggets for fourth and 3½ games behind the Mavericks for third. Kevin Durant scored 32 points in the Thunder’s win over the Wizards on Monday and is averaging 27.3 PPG over his past four games. He is a perfect 31-of-31 from the FT line over that span. Durant scored 33 in the Thunder’s loss to Miami earlier this season, and is averaging 33.7 PPG in his past three meeting with the Heat. In his career, Durant is 1-6 when facing a LeBron James-led team, averaging 26.1 PPG. Kendrick Perkins made his debut against the Wizards on Monday, and Oklahoma City is expecting one of the best low-post defenders in the league to help a team that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in points allowed (101.7 PPG) and FG Pct. defense (46.2%).

Miami has been surging with three straight wins after suffering a five-game losing streak. The Heat have struggled all season ATS, posting a 31-34 record, and have really done poorly ATS at home with a 13-20 record, but they have won three straight ATS -- all wins coming at home. After scoring just seven points on 3-of-7 shooting in a loss against Portland, Chris Bosh has averaged 24.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 61.4% FG in his past three games, leading the Heat in scoring in two of those contests. LeBron James scored 23 points in Miami’s win at Oklahoma City in January, and is averaging 34.7 PPG in his past three games against them. Dwyane Wade led Miami with 32 points in its win over OKC earlier this season, and is averaging 29.8 PPG in his past six games against the Thunder.

Just when you think Miami is over the hump and ready to take off, they have taken steps back this season. Most expect them to handle the Thunder after watching them dispose the Spurs by 30 points on Monday, revenging a 30-point loss the Spurs put on them just two weeks earlier. I’m not sure they are ready to take that step yet, so I’m taking Oklahoma City plus the 6½ points.

The FoxSheets says:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-24 ATS (64.7%, +17.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 100.4, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 11:41 AM

Nash expected to play Wednesday at New Orleans

PHOENIX SUNS (33-32)

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (39-30)
Two teams fighting to reach the postseason in the Western Conference meet in New Orleans on Wednesday as the Suns visit the Hornets. New Orleans is tied with Portland for sixth in the West. Phoenix is in 10th place in the West and trails Memphis for the eighth spot by 2½ games. Steve Nash expects to play on Wednesday after missing two games due to “pelvic instability.”

After struggling for most of the season, the Suns went from four games under .500 to four games over .500 during a 13-5 stretch from late January to early March. But the momentum they achieved during that stretch has been erased, as they enter New Orleans on a three-game losing streak. Phoenix is 30-34 ATS this season and has lost five of its past eight games ATS. It is better ATS on the road, posting a 17-14 record, having won its past three contests ATS on the road. Steve Nash missed his second straight game on Monday when the Suns fell at Houston 95-93. That was the third straight poor shooting performance for Phoenix, which is shooting just 41.9 percent and averaging 92.7 PPG over its past three games. Phoenix has won three straight against the Hornets with Nash is averaging 13.7 PPG and 13.0 APG in those games.

New Orleans is 34-33 ATS this season and 16-17 ATS at home this season, having won five of its past six games ATS. The Hornets, who have been one of the best teams in the NBA defensively this season and lead the Western Conference allowing just 93.0 PPG, suffered a major breakdown in their last game against Denver. They allowed a season-high 17 three-pointers and 114 points in falling two games behind the Nuggets for fifth place in the West. After missing one game due to a mild concussion, Chris Paul has returned to his dominant self over his past two contests, averaging 30.0 PPG, 12.5 APG and 59.5% FG. Paul has done well in his past nine games against the Suns, averaging 26.7 PPG, 11.4 APG and shooting 40 percent from behind the arc.

Phoenix is 5-1 in its past six games ATS against the Hornets and New Orleans has lost eight of its past 10 contests when favored at home. I’m taking Phoenix. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to back the Suns:

Play On - Road teams (PHOENIX) - after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. (35-12 since 1996.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

NEW ORLEANS is 9-25 ATS (26.5%, -18.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.9, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The Suns have played three straight games Under the total and the Hornets have the NBA’s second highest percentage (64%) of games finishing Under this season. This FoxSheets trend also likes the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%). (120-76 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.2%, +36.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 05:53 PM

NBAWednesday, March 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 7:00 PM ET Denver +1 500
Atlanta - Over 202 500

Indiana - 7:30 PM ET Boston -10 500
Boston - Over 194 500

Toronto - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -4.5 500
Detroit - Under 207 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Orlando -5.5 500
Milwaukee - Over 180 500

Oklahoma City - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +7 500
Miami - Over 202.5 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix +5 500
New Orleans - Under 197 500

Charlotte - 8:30 PM ET Houston -6 500
Houston - Under 200 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota +6.5 500
Utah - Over 210 500

Cleveland - 10:00 PM ET Cleveland +8 500
Sacramento - Over 212 500

Philadelphia - 10:30 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500
L.A. Clippers - Under 198 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +3.5 500
Golden State - Under 210.5 500

----------------------------------------------------------

NHLWednesday, March 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Carolina -135 500
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +125 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 10:00 PM ET Colorado +301 500
Vancouver - Under 5.5 500

St. Louis - 10:00 PM ET Anaheim -149 500
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500

----------------------------------------------------------
NCAABWednesday, March 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Alabama St. - 6:30 PM ET Texas-San Antonio -3 500
Texas-San Antonio - Under 129.5 500

Nebraska - 7:00 PM ET Nebraska +4 500
Wichita St. - Under 124 500

Tennessee Tech - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech +7 500
Western Michigan - Over 147 500

Miami (OH) - 7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) +8.5 500
Rhode Island - Over 131.5 500

Florida Atlantic - 7:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +10.5 500
Miami - Florida - Under 131 500

Wis.-Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee +9.5 500
Northwestern - Over 138.5 500

Bethune-Cookman - 8:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -21.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 126.5 500

Iona - 8:00 PM ET Iona +0 500
Valparaiso - Over 147 500

Oral Roberts - 8:00 PM ET Oral Roberts +3.5 500
Southern Methodist - Over 136.5 500

St. Bonaventure - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida -6.5 500
Central Florida - Under 131.5 500

VCU - 9:00 PM ET VCU +4 500
Southern California - Over 127.5 500

Texas Southern - 9:00 PM ET Texas Southern +21 500
Colorado - Over 142 500

Mississippi - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi +4.5 500
California - Over 147 500

Duquesne - 9:00 PM ET Duquesne +1 500
Montana - Over 135 500

Long Beach St. - 10:00 PM ET Washington St. -9.5 500
Washington St. - Under 146.5 500

Idaho - 10:00 PM ET Idaho +4 500
San Francisco - Over 133.5 500

Weber St. - 10:00 PM ET Weber St. +10.5 500
Oregon - Over 139 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 05:55 PM

Nowitzki tries to lead Dallas to win in Oakland

DALLAS MAVERICKS (47-20)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (30-37)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3.5, Total: 210.5

The Mavs have gotten it done on the road all season, but it’s never easy to go back-to-back away from home. That’s their task on Wednesday night.

Even with Tuesday night’s loss in Portland, the Mavs are tied for the NBA’s best SU road record this season (23-10), and they’re an impressive 20-13 ATS away from home. They’ve also been strong in back-to-back situations, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS so far.

But this one will be especially tough considering how deep into the season we are. There’s more wear and tear on the players, and Dallas had a scare Tuesday night when Dirk Nowitzki had to leave the game in the second quarter. They’re calling it a minor arm injury (it was originally thought to be his shoulder, but Nowitzki was able to return to the game without any sort of protection on it). Nowitzki has been carrying the team through a recent rough patch -- Dallas is just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in March, but Nowitzki is blistering the nets during that span, going for 25.1 PPG on 56.3% shooting from the field and 96.4% (53-for-55) from the line.

Dallas hasn’t had much trouble scoring, but its defense has been the culprit behind its recent subpar play. So far in March, the Mavs are allowing more points (101.5 PPG, compared to 96.4 PPG on the season) and sending opponents to the line more often (27.3 FTA per game, compared to 22.3 on the year). Opponents are hitting 38.3% of their threes against Dallas this month.

There’s some bad luck involved in that opponent three-point percentage, but it doesn’t bode well against a Warriors team that relies heavily on the three and typically shoots it very well at home. The Warriors hit 40.9% of their threes at home, second-best in the NBA behind only the Spurs, and make 8.8 threes per home game, third-best in the league. A lot of that is due to leading scorer Monta Ellis, who averaged 27.6 PPG and hits 40.2% of his threes at home, compared to 21.8 PPG and 30.1% three-point shooting on the road.

Golden State is scoring 105.2 PPG at home this year, 4.2 more than they average on the road, a big reason it is 21-13 SU (18-16 ATS) in Oakland this year, including upset wins over Orlando, Oklahoma City, Denver and Chicago in the past 40 days. And it’s a big reason I’m not terribly concerned with their Monday night stinker in Sacramento (a 129-119 loss).

The Mavs have scored four SU wins in a row over the Warriors, but considering their recent struggles, I think road-weary Dallas falls short of covering Wednesday night. My pick is Golden State. The FoxSheets has a four-star trend to support a Warriors cover:

GOLDEN STATE is 23-5 ATS (82.1%, +17.5 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 109.8, OPPONENT 108.8 - (Rating = 4*).

I also think both of these teams are set for a shootout. I’m going with the Over, and the FoxSheets have trends to back that up, including this highly-rated one:

DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was DALLAS 111.4, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 05:55 PM

NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: MWC

We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
Overall Trends
Analyzing Early Upsets
Round of 64 Trends
Round of 32 Trends
Conference Trends: ACC
Conference Trends: A-10
Conference Trends: Big 12
Conference Trends: Big East
Conference Trends: Big Ten
Conference Trends: C-USA
This column continues our run of Conference Trends, featuring the Mountain West Conference, which has three teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
#2 SAN DIEGO STATE
#3 BRIGHAM YOUNG
#8 UNLV

Tournament Trends by Conference
Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes the Mountain West Conference with a “B” rating.

In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

In matchups between two “B” level schools, the better seeds are 7-2 SU & 7-1-1 ATS (88%) in the past nine instances. The only ATS loss here was #8 UNLV losing to #9 Northern Iowa last year.

When “B” conference schools play as better seeds against lesser conference teams, they are just 8-18 ATS (31%) since 2000, including 0-3 ATS last year.

When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

Conference USA Trends
MWC teams are just 10-26 SU & 10-22-3 ATS (31%) in the NCAAs since 2000, and no team from the Mountain West ever advanced past the Sweet 16. Last year, MWC got four bids, but only went 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.

The Mountain West has struggled playing with the big schools, as MWC teams are a combined 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS (21%) since 2000 when playing Big 12, Big East, SEC and Big Ten schools in the NCAA Tournament.

After a 9-2 OVER run, the OVER was just 2-4 in Mountain West games in the 2010 NCAAs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2011, 05:56 PM

NCAA Tournament Conference Trends: Pac-10

We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
Overall Trends
Analyzing Early Upsets
Round of 64 Trends
Round of 32 Trends
Conference Trends: ACC
Conference Trends: A-10
Conference Trends: Big 12
Conference Trends: Big East
Conference Trends: Big Ten
Conference Trends: C-USA
Conference Trends: MWC
This column continues our run of Conference Trends, featuring the Pac-10, which has four teams in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field:
#5 ARIZONA
#7 WASHINGTON
#7 UCLA
#11 USC

Tournament Trends by Conference
Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each league. ******* recognizes the Pac-10 with an “A” rating.

In matchups where an “A” team is seeded better than a “B” school, the “A” team is 33-21-2 ATS (61%) since 2005.

“A” vs. “D” matchups have been dominated by the “A” teams to the tune of 36-3 SU and 25-11-3 ATS (69%) over the past four years.

Thirteen of the last 17 (76%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and worse seeded “A” teams have finished OVER the total.

When “B” conferences have been favored over “A” schools since 1999, the OVER is 26-14 (65%).

Pac-10 Trends
Favorites own a 38-9 SU & 32-15 ATS (68%) mark in the past three years of Pac-10 games in the NCAA Tournament. Pac-10 teams are just 21-26 ATS (45%) in that span.

Dating back to UCLA’s loss to Florida in the 2006 NCAA Championship, Pac-10 teams are an atrocious 4-16 SU & ATS (20%) as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament.

Pac-10 teams are 23-22 SU, but just 15-28-2 ATS (35%) in the second and third rounds of the tournament since 2002.

Against non-power conferences rated “B” or worse, Pac-10 teams are 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS (74%) in the past five years.

When Pac-10 teams are favored by at least seven points, the UNDER is a whopping 11-1 over the past five years, allowing just 52.2 PPG.

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