The Bum's NFL Week # 17 Best Bets-News, Notes + More

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 17
December 29, 2010

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY...Odd series visitor dynamics were finally altered in earlier 23-20 Raiders win, which stopped Chiefs’ 9-game cover streak at Oakland. Now action switches to Arrowhead, where Raiders are 6-0-1 vs. line in last seven visits. Last four meetings at KC also "under." Raiders-back-and-forth with covers on road TY, by that pattern due for a "W" here. Tech edge-"Under" and Raiders, based on series trends.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND...Curiously, Miami has played very well at Foxborough lately, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five visits in a visitor-oriented series (road team 8-2-1 vs. number last 11 meetings). Of course, Dolphins have continued their solid road play this season, now 6-1 SU and vs. number, and 17-5 vs. spread last 22 away from home under Sparano. Belichick "over" 8 of last 9 in 2010. Tech edge-Dolphins and "over," based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Titans broke 3-game spread losing streak vs. Indy with the backdoor of all covers Dec. 9 at Nashville. That one also went "over" after 8 of previous 9 had gone "under" in this AFC South series. Titans have also dropped last four vs. spread on road TY after covering first three as visitor in 2010. Indy needed a last-minute onside kick return TD vs. Jags to break recent 3-game spread losing streak and give Colts their first cover at Lucas Oil Stadium in last four tries in 2010. Indy "under" 4-3 at home this season. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON...Houston has won SU in its last four closing-week games, all victories by 7 or more. Texans also 6-2 all-time at home vs. number against Jags, although Kubiak just 2-9 vs. number last 11 TY. Jags, who won first meeting on deflected Hail Mary, now "over" 5 of last 7 vs. Houston (first meeting also "over"), and both of these teams "over" 10-5 this season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Texans, based on "totals" and series trends.

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND...Brownies have covered last two meetings vs. Steelers in Cleveland, although Mangini just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 on board in 2010. Steel just 2-3 vs. line as visitor since Big Ben returned in October, and Tomlin also "under" 5-1 last 6 TY after Dec. 23 win over Panthers. Brownies also "under" last four TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE...Bengals have given Ravens fits lately, winning and covering last three meetings. Five of last six in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh just 6-7 vs. spread last 13 as host, although Cincy just 2-5 vs. line away TY, and 3-8 vs. number last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-"Under" and Ravens, based on "totals" and Bengals’ road trends.

MINNESOTA at DETROIT...Lions now 12-3 vs. line in 2010 and 6-1 vs. points at Ford Field, although Detroit lost and failed to cover at Minnesota back on Sept. 26. Meanwhile, Lions also "over" 7-1-1 last 9 at home since late ‘09. Tech edge-Lions and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON...G-Men 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series, and 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 vs. Skins. NY has also won and covered last four visits to FedEx Field. Tech edge-Giants, based on series and team trends.

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Green Bay has won its reg.-season finale seven years running, with 6-1 spread mark in those games. Pack had won and covered last 4 in series prior to bitter 20-17 loss at Chicago back on Sept. 27. Note last five "under" in series. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA...Birds broke 3-game losing streak to Cowboys in win at Dallas Dec. 12, but Cowboys have still covered last four meetings. Note Dallas now "over" last 12 this season after Cards game and Andy Reid "over" 10-5 in 2010, and Birds 22-11 "over" last 33 on board. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at NY JETS...Jets have only covered 1 of last 4 at home TY, while Bills on 6-3-1 spread run. Bills have also covered 5 of last 6 on road TY, and have surprisingly covered last 4 as series visitor. Road team 8-1 vs. line last 9 in series. Jets also "over" 11-4 TY and 15-5 last 20 since late ‘09. Tech edge-Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers have lost and failed to cover their last two at Georgia Dome, and Carolina just 2-5 vs. line on road TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. line at home since ‘09. John Fox swan song? Tech edge-Falcons, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Bucs very inside-out this season, poor vs. line at home but 6-1 vs. spread away, now 8-1 last 9 vs. number on road and 10-2 last 12 away since mid ‘09. Saints have covered 4 of last 5 in series, however. Raheem Morris "under" last 3 on road TY. Tech edge-Bucs, based on recent road mark.

ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE...NFC West on line! Rams broke 4-game lose and cover streak vs. Seahawks with 20-3 win back on Oct. 3. Rams 10-4 vs. line last 14 TY and 5-2 vs. spread away in 2010. Seahawks' former strong home trends fading, now 1-3 vs. line last 4 at Qwest Field. Tech edge-Rams, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers have won and covered last three series meetings, but SF just 2-4 vs. spread at Stick TY. Meanwhile, Cards only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road TY. Tech edge-49ers, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO at DENVER...Six of last nine "over" in series. Broncos "over" 10-5 TY and 16-5 last 21 dating to late ‘09. Denver 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Invesco Field since mid ‘09. Norv 6-2 SU and vs. line last 8 TY, and 24-11-1 vs. number from Week 8 of reg. season since ‘07. Tech edge-Norv and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves
January 1, 2011

Week 17 of the NFL is always a tough week to handicap for the bettors, and maybe even tougher for the bookmakers who have to baby sit a few lines as they wait for information and scenarios to unfold. Several games will be treated with caution by the sportsbooks because of being meaningless, even though most books will take care of that by offering lower limits. In other instances, they have to wait for rumors and reports from the practice field such as Tom Brady and the Patriots and how long they’ll actually play in their home game against the Dolphins.
And then there are semi-meaningless games with all kinds of variables from players who will play and who won’t that has the team rating all muffled. The feature game in this category goes to the Cowboys visiting the Eagles. The initial early line on Monday had the Eagles as 12-point favorites against the Cowboys who had quarterback Jon Kitna listed as ‘doubtful,’ meaning rookie Stephen McGee would likely start. When QB Michael Vick got hurt, the line was left vacant until Thursday morning. If the line was Eagles minus-12 with Vick, knowing that McGee would play, then it’s got to be at least a 4 ½-point line move, right? And then, how much do you add on for wide receiver DeSean Jackson being out? Position players usually don’t get much consideration in point spreads, but this kid actually makes the quarterback look better because of his athletic ability.

The South Point was the first to put the game on the board in Las Vegas at Philadelphia minus-7 and shortly after Station Casinos posted minus-6 ½. Later in the day, the crew over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted the Eagles minus-9 and quickly jumped to Eagles minus-12. As this was being written, no other book had a posted number on the game. The Hilton line likely has more to McGee getting his first career start, on the road in Philadelphia, than anything else. The Eagles are locked in and can’t advance further with a win, but maybe Kevin Kolb has an agenda to prove something to himself and the team, and maybe even other teams.

Another aspect to look at from a handicappers’ perspective is who the game means more to. The Lions are the perfect example this week. They aren’t going to the playoffs, but they have won three in a row, including two straight wins on the road. They’ll come home to a glorious reception as though they’re in the playoffs against the Vikings, who showed some grit last week, but have essentially packed it in on a disappointing season. After winning at Philadelphia on Tuesday with rookie quarterback Joe Webb, the Vikings line dropped 3 ½-points from their early line of plus-7 on the basis of Minnesota appearing that they had something left in the tank. But do they have anything left? Is their motivation for this game there just because they don’t want to lose 10 games? Who is hungrier at this juncture: a team who fell one game short of the Super Bowl last season with lofty expectations for this year, or a team who is clearly on the rise and proving it weekly? I’d have to side with Lions here laying minus-3 (-120).

On the early line of Jacksonville at Houston -- before their games were finalized Sunday -- the Jaguars were installed as a 2 ½-point favorite. After an injury to QB David Garrard and the likelihood that running back Maurice Jones-Drew wouldn't play, coupled with both teams losing Sunday, the Texans became 3-point favorites. That’s quite a swing for a team like the Jaguars that still have playoff implications, but it also says a lot about the back-up QB, Trent Edwards, who has a tendency to be overcautious with the football when piloting the ship. Jones-Drew, as great as he is, has proved to be replaceable and has no bearing on the movement. It says a lot about the quarterback when a shift happens like that favoring a team that got blasted in the fourth quarter last week by a rookie quarterback (Tim Tebow) who everyone believes can’t be an NFL QB. However, Houston has shown the ability to get up for these Week 17 meaningless games -- to them -- as they have won convincingly in the final game of the year the last four seasons.

Statistically, the Dolphins were coming strong to play this week at New England regardless of the implications. They are 6-1 on the road this season and are 4-0-1 in their last five trips to Foxboro. Because New England coach Bill Belichick is likely to allow his key starters to play only in the first half, the line is reduced considerably to the Patriots being 4-point favorites, up a whole point from the opener. Had this game been in Week 12 where the game meant something to New England, we’d be looking at a spread closer to minus-8 just because of how well the Patriots offense has been cashing in for the public. They are America’s favorite team to bet right now and the line movement reflects that despite the coaching moves that will greatly impact the final outcome.

When looking at the Bears getting 10 points at Green Bay, we’re all thinking that game must not mean anything, but it does, kind of. The "kind of" part is built in to the line because in order for it to mean something, both the Falcons and Saints have to lose which would then make the Bears game at a later start time mean playing for home field. Had this game been in Week 13, the Packers would be around 4 ½-point favorites if under the same circumstances, of which being the Bears scoring some points like they have been the last two weeks. This game will be taken off the board at most sportsbooks when the early games involving the NFC South teams start and then offered once again when those games become closer to the final outcome, which in the Falcons case at home against Carolina could be the second quarter or earlier.

The Falcons early line was closer to being a line that reflected them beating the Saints on Monday night and resting this week as they opened up as 10-point favorites. Upon losing, making home field a dangling incentive carrot for Week 17, the Falcons were quickly adjusted to minus-14 against Carolina where it sits right now.

The “Game of the Week” features the Rams at Seattle in a do or die matchup for the NFC West crown and ticket into the playoffs. The Seahawks will start Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback and the opening line of Rams minus-2 was built in to him starting, but the Sharps jumped all over it pushing the game to minus-3. The fact that the Seahawks haven’t looked like they did earlier in the year at home also looks to be the key as they have gone 1-3 in their last four at home against the number. The Rams look to be a solid play this week simply on the basis of Whitehurst trying to control the show.

Some early Sharp money came in on the Broncos at home getting 3 ½-points against the Chargers, but incremental public money, spurred by an incoming New Year’s Eve crowd, has kept the game at Chargers minus-3 or 3 ½. This game kind of has the same approach that the Lions game does in that it means a whole lot more to the Broncos who seemed energized with some pride for the future due to the play of Tebow. Whereas, the Chargers are playing for nothing in Week 17 for the first time in ages. Will the Chargers road woes of 2-5 on the year continue and what is their mindset like after being thoroughly disappointed in a year where they had one of the top offenses and defenses statistically, only to watch everyone else play in the postseason while they‘re at home?

Happy New Years to everyone and may your 2011 NFL betting year be much better than 2010.

For many, it has been one of the worst ever.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot Seat Update
January 1, 2011


As we enter the final weekend of the NFL season, we’re counting as many as fifteen potential coaching changes on the horizon. Some are already a fait accompli; for others, we’ll find out soon enough (like next week). Following is our trip around those NFL "hot seats" and the chances of a coaching change for 2011.

CAROLINA... The imminent departure of John Fox was the worst-kept secret in the NFL this season. The handwriting was on the wall after 2009 when Panthers owner Jerry Richardson didn’t extend the contracts of Fox or GM Marty Hurney into 2011. The Panthers lost more than they added in free agency and almost appeared to be sacrificing this season in order to get something they wanted for 2011. That could either be the number one pick in the NFL Draft, or, perhaps, a coach like Bill Cowher, with North Carolina roots (an NC State grad with a home in Raleigh)...or both. Word on Cowher is that if he does jump back into the fray, this year will be his opportunity. The fact he covets the sort of personnel control that Pete Carroll has in Seattle should not be a problem for Richardson to accommodate. The bigger question is if Cowher really wants to rejoin the rat race, as he seems to be thoroughly enjoying his gig at CBS. And whether Cowher wants to subject himself to the grind after dealing with his wife’s illness and passing this past year is another matter entirely. By the way, on Friday, Richardson ended the speculation regarding Fox by announcing his dismissal, effective after the regular-season finale vs. Atlanta. Chance of change...100%.

CINCINNATI... The Bengals have shown a few signs of life in recent weeks, but this season has been a terrible disappointment at Paul Brown Stadium, and under most circumstances one would assume that HC Marvin Lewis, who has lost more than he has won in eight years on the job, would be ready to walk the plank and that wholesale changes would be forthcoming, including cutting ties with diva WRs Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. The X-factor in all of this is owner Mike Brown, renown for being stubborn and penurious. If it costs less to keep Lewis than canning him and hiring someone else, Brown is one owner who might just sit tight. But most sources suspect a change has to happen in Cincy, with Lewis likely finding employment elsewhere as a defensive coordinator (his previous calling). Chance of change...85%.

CLEVELAND... Eric Mangini survived his rookie season by the skin of his teeth in Cleveland, enduring a front office tug-of-war and then the appointment of Mike Holmgren as the new Browns football czar. Holmgren decided Mangini was worth one more look after the Browns closed strongly last season, but after some promising results around midseason this year, the Brownies have faded and enter the finale vs. Pittsburgh at 5-10, very likely to replicate last year’s record. Even though Mangini was not given much to work with at QB (past sell-by-date Jake Delhomme, journeyman Seneca Wallace, and rookie Colt McCoy), word is that the progress Holmgren sought has not been realized. We doubt even an upset win over the Steelers in the finale saves Mangini. Chance of change....90%.

DALLAS... Prior to last week’s loss at Arizona, we were thinking that the chances HC Jason Garrett would be have the interim label removed and be retained by Jerry Jones were pretty good. Now, we’re not so sure after that exasperating loss to the Cardinals. And since we doubt Jones is going to base Garrett’s future upon this week’s game at Philly (especially if Stephen McGee is forced to start at QB), his mind is probably already made up, one way or the other. Given that Jones went out of his way to keep Garrett in the fold as offensive coordinator the past few years by paying him head coach’s money, and that Dallas seemed to initially respond to Garrett upon his promotion after Wade Phillips dismissal, we suspect Jones probably keeps him, as long as Garrett guts the defensive staff and starts from scratch with his disappointing stop unit. But we’re also talking about Jones, so we can’t be sure. Chance of change...40%.

DENVER... This one is a certainty, with Pat Bowlen having jettisoned Josh McDaniels in early December, and interim HC Eric Studesville having no change at the permanent spot. The bigger question is if Bowlen first hires a GM, as well as what sort of role John Elway might soon have in the football end of the operation. There’s been some chatter in the Rockies about bringing ex-Bronco QB and assistant, and current Texans HC Gary Kubiak, back to the Mile High City (which would suggest real Elway influence), although Kubiak might be a hard sell for Bowlen to make to Broncos fans after the Texans’ latest pratfall and failure to get above .500 on Kubiak’s watch since 2006. There has also been talk that Bowlen might target Bill Parcells for a football supremo-type role, and give the Tuna carte blanche. Those behind-the-scenes maneuverings might be more interesting than whomever Bowlen ends up naming as the new coach. Chance of change...100%.

HOUSTON... As mentioned above, Gary Kubiak is already being rumored as a potential candidate in Denver, and it would not be a surprise to anyone in Houston if owner Bob McNair went in a different direction after the Texans’ latest failure to crack the .500 barrier (which makes Kubiak 0-for-5 in that regard). Some league sources are already speculating that Kubiak is more likely to be coaching the Broncos than the Texans next season, although we suspect he might be coaching neither. Keep a watch on this situation. Looking for a real longshot hire in Houston, should Kubiak get the boot? We hear none other than Texas HC Mack Brown might be listening to NFL offers after the Longhorns’ disappointing 2010 season. Just a rumor. Chance of change...75%.

JACKSONVILLE... Jack Del Rio came into this season on what was an acknowledged as one of the hottest seats in the AFC. And while he looked to have rehabilitated his regime sufficiently throughout much of the campaign as the Jags emerged as a surprise playoff contender, Del Rio is hardly out of the woods yet, with Jacksonville now in danger of losing its third game in a row, finishing at .500, and missing the playoffs if it loses on Sunday at Houston. The likely absence of QB David Garrard (finger injury) for the finale might or might not prove a viable scapegoat. Del Rio’s chances of sticking increase significantly if the Jags win and at least finish above .500 (even if they miss the playoffs), but owner Wayne Weaver might be in the mood to make a move regardless if the Jags miss the postseason for the third straight year. There are also rumors about Del Rio possibly surfacing as a candidate for some potential, still-to-open college jobs. Stay tuned. Chance of change...45%.

MIAMI... Remember, Tony Sparano was hired in 2008 as Bill Parcells’ guy shortly after the Tuna took a position as director of football operations. Now, Parcells is gone, and Sparano is without his biggest safety blanket. Which he could use, because if nothing else, the sequence of the Dolphins’ recent mediocrity (6-1 on the road, but an inexplicable 1-7 at home this season, with recent losses to the Bills and Lions at Sun Life Stadium) has the fans and owner Stephen Ross miffed. Word is that even a win in the finale at New England (which will likely be subbing extensively on Sunday) might not be enough to save Sparano. Chance of change...90%.

MINNESOTA... That Tuesday night win by the Vikings over the Eagles might be enough for owner Zygi Wilf to take the interim label off of Leslie Frazier, who had been groomed for a head coaching job during his stint as defensive coordinator for the Vikes. We suspect the blame for Minnesota’s failures this season will fall mostly to the deposed Brad Childress, the unwieldiness of the Brett Favre situation, and various injury problems. Although it would not be a terrible surprise if Wilf decided a full housecleaning was in order. Chance of change...30%.

NY GIANTS... We wouldn’t have even considered putting Tom Coughlin, who apparently has a good relationship with team president John Mara, on this list a few weeks ago. But with the G-Men on the verge of an embarrassing collapse and missing the playoffs for the second year in a row, Coughlin is now at least on the periphery of the trouble list. Should New York lose to Washington on Sunday and miss the playoffs (which could also happen if the Giants win this week), Coughlin’s status would be under further review, as might that of GM Jerry Reese. All of the developments have already moved one potential candidate, Bill Cowher, to issue a disclaimer. Interestingly, in a related development, defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (interim Bills coach in 2009) has been mentioned as a possible candidate for several expected openings elsewhere. Chance of change...35%.

OAKLAND... Opinion around the league appears pretty divided on the job done by Tom Cable over the past 2+ campaigns. Oakland has made progress this season, but a loss in the finale at Kansas City again puts the Raiders under .500, and owner Al Davis remains unpredictable. Some suspect Davis, like a year ago, will wait to commit to Cable as he again scours the landscape for available candidates who would be willing to work with the old man. But, as a year ago, Davis might find few takers. Looking for a longshot possibility? Former Giants HC Jim Fassel, working in the UFL with the Las Vegas franchise, is reportedly one football man who would be willing to work for Davis, who has reached into the scrap heap before (Mike White, Joe Bugel, Norv Turner, Art Shell’s second tenure, to name a few). Another longshot could be local Cal HC Jeff Tedford, not in as much demand as a few years ago with the Bears’ fortunes declining lately, which might make him more amenable to any interest from the Raiders, and ironically might make him more appealing to Davis. But like everything else in Raider Nation, who knows? Chance of change...55%.

SAN DIEGO... We know that the Spanos’ have said that HC Norv Turner & GM A.J. Smith are safe into 2011. But we also know that Jerry Jones was saying the same thing about Wade Phillips a couple of weeks before pulling the plug, as was Jed York with Mike Singletary in San Francisco, and Pat Bowlen with Josh McDaniels in Denver. And there is still one more game for the underachieving Chargers this week at Denver, a loss to whom could drop the Bolts to an inexcusable 8-8. Some sources believe the Chargers would simply be better off making Norv the full-time offensive coordinator and making d.c. Ron Rivera (who could be in line for other expected openings) the head coach. Working in Norv’s favor is a decidedly soft local print media base that is reluctant to take the Chargers to task; the outcry for change in San Diego is a lot different than it would be in Philadelphia or New York. Still, we would hold off on assuming Norv will be back in 2011 until the Chargers win their finale in Denver. We do know this would be the primo job opening in the league if Norv gets the boot, with the chance to work with an All-Pro QB in Philip Rivers, into his prime years. Chance of change...20%.

SAN FRANCISCO... Mike Singletary is already out and interim HC Jim Tomsula is not going to be a candidate, so now the focus shifts to team president Jed York, who intends to hire a GM before he inks a new head coach. Already, former NFL GMs Floyd Reese and Randy Mueller have supposedly been interviewed. The major buzz in the Bay Area, however, is that Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh is in the 49ers’ cross-hairs. And Harbaugh would never figure to be a hotter commodity than right now, having dramatically rehabilitated the Stanford program. They’re passing the hat on The Farm and finally stepping up with the sort of big money that could make Harbaugh think about staying in Palo Alto, but word is that Harbaugh has always fancied a shot at the NFL, especially because his brother John is coaching the Ravens these days. And if Harbaugh wants the NFL, he will never have a more convenient opportunity than with the 49ers, who train in nearby Santa Clara and would not even require Harbaugh to make a move. Harbaugh, however, will have the chance to say "no" to multiple job offers, perhaps even in the college ranks at alma mater Michigan if Rich Rodriguez is to be dismissed, as has been rumored. Jon Gruden’s name has also popped up as a possibility here and elsewhere, although he seems to be enjoying his Monday Night Football gig on ESPN so much that we would not be surprised to see him stay away from coaching for the time being. Chance of change...100%.

TENNESSEE... It never figured that Bud Adams would employ the longest-tenured coach in the league, but that unlikely development with Jeff Fisher (on the job since midway in the ‘94 season, when the franchise was still based in Houston) is about to expire. Word has it that Adams is ready to make a change after the Titans’ season unraveled in the wake of the Vince Young controversy. Adams, with close ties to the Texas Longhorns (though not an alum), was the driving force behind Young’s draft choice ahead of Jay Cutler, reportedly preferred by Fisher, in 2006. And word has it that if Bud has to choose between Fisher and VY, he’ll opt for Young. If so, we would not expect Fisher to be unemployed for long, unless he chooses to sit out a year, as he would be a top candidate to fill almost any other opening. If there is any truth to the rumors about Mack Brown having some interest in the NFL, might Bud give him a call to work wit VY again? Chance of change...90%.

WASHINGTON... Only because we’re talking about Dan Snyder would we think about including Mike Shanahan in this list...this offseason, at least. But given that Snyder once hit the eject button on Marty Schottenheimer after one season, and kept Steve Spurrier around for only two years, we cannot be completely sure that the Snyder will sit idly by as The Shan presides over a fractured clubhouse in the wake of the Donovan McNabb benching. That the Skins have performed well behind QB Rex Grossman the past few weeks probably saves The Shan for now, but even he must be wondering why he took this assignment and inherited this of mess at Redskin Park, especially since he would have had his pick of jobs after this season. Chance of change...10%.

Stay tuned...

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 2Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -7 500
New Orleans - Over 46.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -9.5 500
Baltimore - Over 43 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -14 500
Atlanta - Under 41 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -6.5 500
Cleveland - Over 38 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -3.5 500
Detroit - Over 43.5 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -4 500
Kansas City - Under 43.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 39.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET New England -6 500
New England - Over 44 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Giants -4 500
Washington - Over 44.5 500

Dallas - 4:15 PM ET Dallas +3 500
Philadelphia - Over 43 500

Tennessee - 4:15 PM ET Tennessee +9.5 500
Indianapolis - Over 47.5 500

Chicago - 4:15 PM ET Chicago +10.5 500
Green Bay - Over 42.5 500

Jacksonville - 4:15 PM ET Houston -4 500
Houston - Over 47 500

San Diego - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -3.5 500
Denver - Over 47.5 500

Arizona - 4:15 PM ET Arizona +6 500
San Francisco - Over 39.5 500

St. Louis - 8:20 PM ET Seattle +3 500
Seattle - Over 41.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Jags travel to Houston without Garrard, Jones-Drew


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-7)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (5-10)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 45

Jacksonville will be missing its top two offensive players when it travels to Houston with hopes of reaching the playoffs. QB David Garrard (finger) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) will not play on Sunday. A Jaguars win combined with Indianapolis losing to Tennessee would make the Jags AFC South champions for the first time since 1999. The Texans are trying to finish a disappointing season on a high note and are also trying to avenge their Hail Mary-TD loss at Jacksonville on Nov. 14.

Trent Edwards will replace Garrard (23 TD, 15 INT) under center and he should have WR Mike Sims Walker (foot) available to throw the football to. Edwards is 43-for-76 for 381 yards, 1 TD and 4 INT this year with Buffalo and Jacksonville combined. For his career, Edwards carries a 75.8 QB rating (25 TD, 29 INT), but he may never face a worse pass defense than Houston’s, allowing 277 passing YPG this year. For the Jaguars to have any chance to win, Jones-Drew’s replacement, Rashad Jennings, must perform better. Jennings was held to 32 yards on 15 carries in last week’s overtime loss to Washington.

The Texans are also not at full speed with WR Andre Johnson doubtful because of a sprained ankle. But QB Matt Schaub should still be able to throw the football against Jacksonville’s 26th ranked pass defense (250 YPG). Houston is also 10th in the NFL in rushing, thanks to Arian Foster. The second-year RB leads the NFL with 1,436 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns.

The Texans are 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) when hosting Jacksonville and 11-6 ATS (8-9 SU) in 17 all-time meetings. These two FoxSheets trends also side with Houston to win the game and eliminate Jacksonville from playoff contention.

HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games avenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992. The average score was HOUSTON 24.6, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (HOUSTON) - avenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite.(72-37 since 1983.) (66.1%, +31.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also expect the game to finish Under the Total:

Play Under - Any team against the total (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season. (31-9 since 1983.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*).