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**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2010, 07:21 PM

Tread Lightly in Week 17
December 27, 2010

The last weekend of the pro football regular season has been confounding pundits and handicappers alike for decades. In no other week of the campaign does the forecasting drift into the "psychology" realm as much as the final one. Making matters more confusing is the fact we have been witness to so many memorable examples, both confirming and disproving, of these supposed "psychological" considerations, throughout the decades.

Anyone who recalls the end of the 1965 NFL season, and the bristling race between the Packers and Colts in the Western Conference, would never assume teams with "nothing to play for" would simply roll over in the final week. For those who don’t recall, or weren’t around in 1965, that was the season in which the Colts lost both of their top two QBs, the great Johnny Unitas and capable backup Gary Cuozzo, near the end of the campaign, and were forced to employ RB Tom Matte as an "emergency" QB for the final regular-season game, a nationally-televised Saturday afternoon affair vs. the 4-9 Rams at the L.A. Coliseum. The Colts entered that contest at 9-3-1, a half-game behind the 10-3 Packers, who had beaten Baltimore at a fog-shrouded Memorial Stadium in the penultimate week of the campaign. That was one of the great games of RB Paul Hornung’s career, as the "Golden Boy" scored 5 TDs in a 42-27 Packer romp. The Colts were still in the West race, however, and could win the Conference with a victory at the Coliseum combined with a Green Bay loss the next day at San Francisco. Ties involving either team created the possibility of a one-game playoff the following week. The Rams, however, had surged late in the season after QB Roman Gabriel replaced an injured Bill Munson, and entered the Colts’ game very hot, having won three in a row, including dominating wins over the Packers and Eastern Conference champion Browns. Indeed, considering the Colts’ plight with Matte, and the Rams’ uptick, it was L.A., despite having nothing to play for, installed as the betting favorite.

The game was pulsating, with Baltimore summoning every ounce it had in reserve to keep its title hopes alive, and the Rams putting forth a maximum effort despite their lowly record and last-place standing in the West. Any thoughts that L.A. would "pack it in" after falling behind 10-0 in the 2nd Q were quickly dismissed when Gabriel culminated a long march just before halftime with a 10-yard TD pass to vet WR Tommy McDonald. The Rams, never contemplating surrender, then forged a 14-10 lead in the 3rd Q when Gabe teamed with rookie WR Jack Snow on a 60-yard TD strike. The game continued to hang in the balance into the 4th Q; in a little-known historical footnote, Colts HC Don Shula had picked up veteran QB Ed Brown from the Steelers earlier in the week, and it was Brown who actually brought the Colts back into the game with a 68-yard TD pass to TE John Mackey in the 4th Q to level matters at 17. Two late interceptions of Gabriel by Colt DB Bobby Boyd, first setting up Michaels’ 23-yard FG, then denying the Rams after Gabriel had driven them deep into Colt territory in the waning moments, gave Baltimore a dramatic 20-17 win and put the pressure on the Pack to beat San Francisco the next day to claim the West crown.

Only the 49ers had different ideas. In an act that would send some present-day handicappers we know into overload, San Francisco QB John Brodie, in a pre-game, on-field interview (the sort that used to be commonplace before studio pregame shows appeared on the scene), told the TV audience and fellow Packer interviewees Hornung and Ray Nitschke that San Francisco was going to "make sure Baltimore wins the West" by taking down Green Bay at Kezar Stadium. Hard for some we know to believe anyone would ever challenge the Lombardi Packers so brazenly ("Bulletin board material!"), but Hornung and Nitschke weren’t offended in the least; they would have expected no less of Brodie and the 49ers. San Francisco had nothing on the line except professional pride, and like the Rams the previous day, the 49ers fought back from a double-digit deficit and eventually took a 4th-Q lead when Brodie hit Dave Parks with a 12-yard score. Green Bay then rallied to take a late 24-17 edge, but the 49ers, supposedly with nothing to play for, had come too far to surrender, and Brodie led a last-minute drive to tie the score at 24 on a 27-yard TD pass to Vern Burke. The game ended in a 24-24 deadlock.

Indirectly, that result resonates today, as it forced a one-game playoff between the Packers and Colts the following week (won controversially so by Green Bay, 13-10, in overtime, ironically immortalizing Matte in the process), in what is widely accepted as the seed that motivated NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle to eventually introduce an expanded playoff format, the sort we have in place today, for the 1967 season. Meanwhile, as for the Rams, their final-game loss to the Colts presaged the dismissal of HC Harland Svare, with George Allen, hired from George Halas’ Bears staff, taking charge thereafter. Hardly an uneventful final week!

Before the ‘60s were complete, the Packers were involved in a couple of other examples of differing final-week dynamics. The ‘67 team, which had clinched a spot in Rozelle’s newly-expanded playoffs, subbed liberally and dropped its finale to the lowly Steelers, 24-17; yes, Vince Lombardi lost his last regular-season game as Green Bay coach. The following year, under Phil Bengston, the Pack had been eliminated from the playoff chase when it traveled to Chicago for its final game against a Bears team that could win the NFC Central title by beating Green Bay, which would be starting backup QB Zeke Bratkowski in place of injured Bart Starr. With nothing to play for except pride, and with Bratkowski KO’d early in the game, forcing little-used 2nd-year ex-San Diego State QB Don Horn into the lineup, the Pack nonetheless took control early and held on for a 28-27 win, which helped gift the Central to Bud Grant’s Vikings, who won at Philadelphia the same afternoon.

Those are just a few long-ago examples of differing final week-scenarios. The Green Bay ‘67 case has also played out numerous times in the decades since, where teams that have clinched their spots in the postseason are apt to low-key it in the final week, or two; witness the Colts’ meltdown last season when QB Peyton Manning was pulled in favor of backup Curtis Painter, which effectively scuttled Indy's hopes of an unbeaten regular season. With Painter scheduled to go most of the finale at Buffalo, the Colts were even installed as 8-point dogs but still failed to cover, losing 30-7. We have seen numerous other playoff-bound teams sub liberally and pay the price in final regular-season games (the Bengals were similarly non-focused for their finale last season vs. the Jets, who needed the win to secure a postseason berth; New York easily covered the 10-point spread in a 37-0 romp). Not always, however, do playoff-bound teams simply roll over; the Cardinals had clinched the NFC West and their playoff seed in ‘08 when they nonetheless won and covered handily vs. Seattle. Indeed, if there is one constant in most final-week dynamics, it’s that teams rarely don’t play hard, especially squads that are out of the playoff race entirely. For those sorts, other factors might contribute to a losing performance, but given that these guys are playing for their livelihoods, rarely do they decide not to give maximum effort, at least not to the frequency many observers seem to believe.

Bad teams can find various ways to beat themselves. But it’s never because they’re not trying to win!

Back in 2005, we also recall San Francisco being in "pole position" for the number one draft choice entering the last two weeks of the season, only to beat the Rams and Texans and slide down to the 6th position in the draft. Further back, we also remember sides such as the 1968 Eagles winning twice late in the season and denying themselves a chance to draft the ballyhooed O.J. Simpson (who ended up at Buffalo), and the 1988 Packers winning an otherwise meaningless regular-season finale at Phoenix, conceding the top choice in the draft to the Cowboys, who took Troy Aikman with the first pick.

No matter, the final regular-season week need not send handicappers into a state of panic. Indeed, adherence to traditional forecasting principles (such as identifying strengths and weaknesses of each side, fundamental matchups, personnel situations, and technical and psychological considerations) is recommended, as always. But we might suggest altering the usual recipe just a bit, because the last week of the NFL season often will more resemble the preseason than a normal regular-season weekend. Much like handicapping exhibition games, we suggest paying extra attention to personnel developments and lineup moves, especially involving quarterbacks (most announced in advance), leading up to the games. As always, a "working knowledge" of the teams often comes in handy.

Recent history provides some interesting Week 17 numbers; since 2007, favorites have outperformed the dogs each season in final weekend action, with a cumulative 27-18 mark vs. the line. Which is somewhat illuminating, as spreads in the final week often become inflated because of the pre-announced personnel changes (often involving backup QBs), and squads such as last year’s Buffalo end up laying points to teams they’d normally not be favored against in a normal regular-season week. As always, it’s a good idea to handicap these games individually, not collectively.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-27-2010, 07:22 PM

Public wins, books get lucky
December 26, 2010

Bettors Win in Week 16, But Many Miss the Opportunity
After getting pummeled all year by the sportsbooks, bettors picked a fine time to ease the reins on their betting strategies and unit plays. Sure it was Christmas weekend, family was in town, or you had to be out of town, a portion of the betting funds had to be used to buy gifts, but when week 16 of the NFL came and passed, many were left off the gravy train. The favorites went 8-4 on Sunday with five of the six most weighted games coming in for the public, but unfortunately, about 25% of the regular weekly handle was missing.

“If it had been a normal NFL weekend, it would have been a very tough day, “ said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “Because of the Holiday season we were slow for most of the week until a major rush on Sunday morning.“

Kornegay reported that his sportsbook “broke about even” as was the case for many other books near the strip, but the local sportsbooks took a much harder blow due to the high propensity of players playing parlays off the board and on cards. Even so, all the books combined were very fortunate that many of the regulars were busy with other matters due to the holidays. Much of the lodged clientele that target Christmas as their vacation destination aren’t traditional sports bettors either. Had this week of results occurred in, say, Week 10, it had the potential of being the worst day of the season for the books.

The only weighted public choice that faltered was the Chargers as 8-point favorites, who lost straight up to the Bengals. The Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs all came through for bettors in the early games and then in the late games, the Colts and Buccaneers led the way to more profits. Those wins, combined with the six college bowl favorites that covered earlier in the week, led to some serious risk and high payouts on multi-legged parlays.

Even the Sharps took somewhat of a hiatus because of the holidays.

“We saw a few limit plays, but nothing like we normally see,’ said Kornegay, “It was more like half-limit plays mixed in with not many showing their plans until late Saturday night and Sunday morning.”

On a typical week, there usually is a surge of Sharp action when the line is first released on Monday. Then a little more of the Sharp’s plan is revealed on Thursday or Friday, with the final pieces of their plan unfolding on game day. Last week, not so much.

The Sharp plays of the week had the Bears and Raiders, with smaller movement on the Packers and Bills. The Bears had opened as 1 ½-point home favorites against the Jets, were bet down to -1 and then bet everywhere by Sunday morning pushing the game up to -3 even. The Raiders saw the same type of movement going the other way as they opened 3-point home underdogs to the Colts, but by kickoff the Colts were only -1 ½.

However, the public didn’t care what the Colts line was. They had seen enough last week in their win over Jacksonville that they felt their good old reliable team was back and that laying a field goal was easy. Same story with the Chiefs as the line was dropping on game day from -5 to -4 because of a few respected large plays, but the 6-0 home record had the average Joe taking Kansas City regardless of the line.

The one saving grace for the sports books over the weekend, beyond the Chargers losing, was the Cowboys losing Saturday night as 6 ½-point favorites at Arizona.

For those who missed out last week after a tough year, be thankful that we throw the entire year in the trash can, where it belongs, as Week 17 begins a new year. Let’s make it a good one and hope that the tables turn for the bettor.

Eagles-Vikings

Tuesday night football gets its debut this week as the NFL treated one of its home games in Philadelphia like a rain out in baseball. I thought part of the beauty of football that separated it from other sports is that the fans and players both dealt with the elements as the dealer in the sky dealt them. What’s funny is that NBC made the switch to that game from their originally scheduled game of San Diego at Cincinnati to a game with a 14-point spread that was initially hoped to have Michael Vick playing against Brett Favre, a real ratings winner. Everyone who bet the game prior to the announcement of the date change has no action with all bets refunded. If looking to bet the game, you’ll have to use the new betting numbers of 133-134.

Bengals Shed Their Dead Skin

One week after ridding themselves of Terrell Owens and a 10-game losing streak, the Bengals played the Chargers without the other half of the Bozo-Ocho show. The Bengals played as smart and loose as they have all season in their 34-20 shocking win over the Chargers, a team who had to win to stay alive for the playoffs. I wonder what the duo will have to say on their show about the sudden wins correlating with their absence.

Tebow-rific

The public liked the Texans as short -2 ½-point favorites against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos and it appeared that everyone would cruise to any easy win as Houston rolled out to a 17-0 halftime lead. Even though the Texans have the worst pass-defense in football, Tebow showed all the skills and grit that made him the scrutinized early pick by former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels by throwing for 308 yards and running for the winning score in a 24-23 win. Tebow engineered two fourth quarter touchdown drives that may give the faithful something to look forward to in 2011 after suffering through one of the worst seasons in Broncos history.

Freeman Free-Wheelin’

Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman threw five touchdown passes with no interceptions in a 38-15 rout over the Seahawks giving him a 23-6 ratio on the season in those categories. The win keeps the door to the playoffs still somewhat open with what could be a pivotal game next week at New Orleans for both teams depending on what the Saints do Monday night in Atlanta. It’s hard to believe that this kid is still only 22-years-old with almost two full seasons as an NFL quarterback.

Playoff Picture Clearing

The AFC is pretty simple at this point, if the Colts (9-6) win at home against the Titans, they’re in. If the Colts lose and the Jaguars (8-7) win, then Jacksonville is in. Should both lose, then the Colts will advance. In the NFC, the winner of the Rams-Seahawks game advances. If the Packers (9-6) and Saints (10-4) win, they are in, but should they lose, then the door opens up for the Giants (9-6) and Buccaneers (9-6), if they win, in a crazy scenario.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2010, 07:57 PM

NFL betting trends for season finales

So far this season, we have done five-year studies on how teams have performed in the month of December and how they’ve fared over the final four games of the season. As we enter Week 17, we thought we’d check out how teams have done in their regular season finales over the last five seasons. Surprisingly, the team that is on the clock for the 2011 NFL Draft -- the Carolina Panthers -- tops the list. Below are the best and worst:

HIGHEST WIN PCT. ATS – OVERALL
Carolina, 4-0-1 (100%)
Arizona, 4-1 (80%)
Kansas City, 4-1 (80%)
NY Giants, 4-1 (80%)
Green Bay, 3-1-1 (75%)
San Francisco, 3-1-1 (75%)

HIGHEST WIN PCT. ATS - HOME
Minimum 2 games
Baltimore, 3-0
Cleveland, 3-0
Kansas City, 2-0
All three teams play at home in Week 17.

HIGHEST WIN PCT. ATS – AWAY
Minimum 2 games
Carolina, 3-0
Miami, 3-0
Arizona, 2-0
Green Bay, 2-0
Carolina, Miami and Arizona are all away in Week 17.

LOWEST WIN PCT. ATS – OVERALL
Dallas, 1-4 (20%)
Indianapolis, 1-4 (20%)
Jacksonville, 1-4 (20%)
Tampa Bay, 1-4 (20%)
Tennessee, 1-4 (20%)
New Orleans, 1-3 (25%)

LOWEST WIN PCT. ATS – HOME
Minimum 2 games
Miami, 0-2
Tampa Bay, 1-4 (20%)
Indianapolis, 1-3 (25%)
Only Indianapolis is home in Week 17.

LOWEST WIN PCT. ATS – AWAY
Minimum 2 games
Jacksonville, 0-4
New Orleans, 0-3
Baltimore, 0-2
Cleveland, 0-2
Dallas, 0-2
Jacksonville and Dallas are both away in Week 17.

If you’re wondering who has the best (and worst) overall SU records in this study, here they are:

HIGHEST WIN PCT. SU – OVERALL
Carolina, 5-0
Green Bay, 5-0
Baltimore, 4-1 (80%)
Houston, 4-1 (80%)
NY Jets, 4-1 (80%)
Pittsburgh, 4-1 (80%)
San Diego, 4-1 (80%)
San Francisco, 4-1 (80%)

LOWEST WIN PCT. SU – OVERALL
Buffalo, 1-4 (20%)
Dallas, 1-4 (20%)
Detroit, 1-4 (20%)
Jacksonville, 1-4 (20%)
New Orleans, 1-4 (20%)
Oakland, 1-4 (20%)
Seattle, 1-4 (20%)
Tampa Bay, 1-4 (20%)

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2010, 07:58 PM

NFL Odds: Eagles heavy favorites over Vikings

NOTE: This game has been postponed due to weather and will be played Tuesday, Dec. 28, at 5 p.m. PT.

Except for another Love Boat scandal, just about everything bad has happened to the 5-9 Minnesota Vikings this season. From going through a coaching change, dealing Randy Moss, seeing the sad decline of Brett Favre and having their stadium collapse forcing them to play two home contests at neutral sites, it has been a dreadful year for the Vikings.

Lack of motivation and rookie Joe Webb expected to start his first game are among the factors why the Vikings are 14 ½-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles. The total is 43.

Originally scheduled to play Sunday at 10 a.m. PT, the game has been switched to 5:20 p.m. with NBC televising.

The reason for the switch to prime time certainly isn’t because of the Vikings. The 10-4 Eagles and their marquee star Michael Vick took a one-game lead in the NFC East with a dramatic 38-31 road win against the New York Giants last Sunday covering as three-point underdogs.

The Eagles need only one win, or a New York loss to Green Bay this week or Washington in its final regular season game, to clinch the NFC East Division. So there’s a chance the Eagles already could be NFC East champs before this game kicks off.

Even if the Giants were to lose, the Eagles still should be motivated. They can earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field through the playoffs if they defeat Minnesota and Dallas at home next week and Chicago loses a game while Atlanta loses its final two games against New Orleans and Carolina.

Philadelphia rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Giants, winning on the final play on a 65-yard punt return from DeSean Jackson.

Vick was spectacular once again accounting for four touchdowns and a combined 372 yards passing and rushing. Easily on his way to making the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2005, Vick has thrown at least two touchdown passes during each of the last four games and in seven of his 11 starts. He also has run for at least one touchdown in six of his last seven games.

After posting victories against Washington and Buffalo in their first two games under interim coach Leslie Frazier, the Vikings have gone 0-2 losing to the Giants and Bears by a combined margin of 61-17.

Minnesota wasn’t competitive in a 40-14 loss this past Monday night against Chicago in a game relocated to the University of Minnesota following the collapse of the Metrodome roof.

Brett Favre, already dealing with a shoulder injury, was knocked out in the loss suffering a concussion. Star running back Adrian Peterson didn’t play due to a thigh bruise.

Webb is slated to start backed up by veteran Patrick Ramsey and recently acquired Rhett Bomar. Webb was 15-for-26 for 129 yards with two interceptions filling in for Favre against the Bears. He also had a 13-yard rushing touchdown.

Peterson, who ranks eighth in the league in rushing with 1,149 yards and has scored 11 touchdowns, is ‘questionable.’

Minnesota has been held to 300 yards or fewer in five of its last six games. The Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. They are 0-7 against the spread versus foes with a winning mark and have failed to cover the last eight times they’ve been underdogs.

The Eagles rate No. 1 on offense averaging 403.9 yards per game and 29.4 points per contest.

Philadelphia has won and covered during the past five meetings in the series with the latest occurring in the playoffs two seasons ago, 26-14, at Minnesota. The last time the Vikings defeated the Eagles in Philadelphia was 1985.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 22 of the Eagles’ past 32 games. The ‘over’ has cashed six of the past seven times Philadelphia has been ‘chalk.’

There’s a 30 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the 20s and seven mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2010, 08:03 PM

NFL playoff betting begins to take shape

Welcome to the wacky NFL where San Diego, one of the better teams in football, is out and either 7-8 St. Louis or 6-9 Seattle is going to the playoffs.

The Rams are one-point road favorites Sunday night against the Seahawks. The game was originally scheduled for the afternoon, but NBC opted to set it as the prime-time broadcast due to the playoff implications. St. Louis is trying to end a five-year playoff drought while Seattle is looking to return to the postseason for the first time since the 2007 campaign.

Don’t scoff. St. Louis has won four of its last five road games. The perception is Seattle is an outstanding home team playing at loud Qwest Field. The reality is the Seahawks have lost 14 of their last 24 home contests during the past three years.

If the Seahawks beat the Rams they will earn the dubious honor of becoming the first team with a losing record to make the postseason.

Seattle has been outscored by 107 points this season and outgained by 1,034 yards. San Diego, by contrast, has outscored its opponents by 114 points and outgained them by 1,795 yards.

All's well in Foxboro

New England is a far more worthy division winner. The Patriots have secured the AFC East Division title and top seed in the conference. They may choose to rest Tom Brady and other front-line players in their home matchup against Miami. The Patriots currently are 4 ½-point favorites. The Dolphins have covered during their past three visits to Foxboro.

The New York Jets give the AFC East two playoff representatives. The Jets lost for the third time in four weeks, but clinched a postseason berth when Jacksonville lost to Washington.

The Jets could sit Mark Sanchez, who has cartilage damage in his throwing shoulder. The Las Vegas Hilton currently has New York a three-point home favorite against Buffalo. The Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and have covered the past four years playing at the Jets.

Sanchez’s backup is 40-year-old Mark Brunell, who looked washed-up when he last started in Week 17 of the 2009 season.

Elsewhere around the league

Kansas City, Chicago and Philadelphia have clinched their respective divisions.

The Chiefs are 10-5 after going 4-12 last year. They are AFC West champs for the first time since 2003. Kansas City is 7-0 at home, 5-2 ATS. The Las Vegas Hilton posted the Chiefs as 3 ½-point home favorites against Oakland. The Raiders are 5-0 straight-up and ATS in AFC West action and have won and covered during their past three trips to Arrowhead.

The Bears locked up the NFC North with seven victories in their last eight games. They are battling Philadelphia for a first-round bye. The Hilton has Chicago, though, as six-point road underdogs to Green Bay, which needs a victory to secure its playoff reservation. Green Bay is 9-6, but has the second-highest point differential next to New England at plus 141.

The Philadelphia-Minnesota game was pushed back to Tuesday due to the blizzard that struck the East Coast on Sunday. The Eagles currently are two-touchdown favorites against the Vikings and were listed as 11 ½-point home ‘chalk’ versus Dallas this Sunday. The Cowboys may be missing Jon Kitna (abdominal strain), who has thrown for 13 touchdowns in the past seven games. Third-stringer Stephen McGee would make his first NFL start if Kitna is a no-go.

Indianapolis can earn its ninth consecutive playoff berth with a home victory against Tennessee. The Colts are 9 ½-point favorites.

A Colts victory closes out Jacksonville, which needs to beat Houston and hope the Titans upset Indianapolis. The Hilton has the Jaguars favored by 2 ½ versus the Texans. The Jaguars didn’t have their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, in their 20-17 overtime home loss to Washington. Jones-Drew, who has a combined 1,641 rushing and receiving yards, has a knee injury.

Pittsburgh is six-point road favorites against Cleveland needing a victory to win the AFC North. The Steelers have defeated the Browns in 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Baltimore is 10-point home favorites against Cincinnati. The Ravens are in the playoffs for the third consecutive year and can win the AFC North with a victory and a Steelers loss.

Atlanta is in great position to capture the NFC South needing either a victory against New Orleans on Monday night or a home win Sunday against 2-13 Carolina, which has the worst record in the NFL. The Hilton’s early number on the Panthers-Falcons matchup is Atlanta minus nine.

Tampa Bay still is alive for an NFC wild-card berth at 9-6. The Buccaneers are seven-point road underdogs against the Saints, according to odds posted at the Hilton.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-28-2010, 08:04 PM

Stakes high in Packers, Bears NFL betting clash

Of all of the games on the Week 17 NFL betting slate, there aren't many that mean more than the matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

For Chicago, the formula is relatively simple. A win locks up a first-round bye for the NFC North champs in the NFC playoffs. A loss requires a loss at some point by the Philadelphia Eagles to get the job done and get the Bears a week off. A win parlayed with losses by both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will earn Chicago the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage to the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers really needs a victory to make sure that it gets into the playoffs. If the Packers lose, they would need both the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be defeated in Week 17.

The Bears still have an absolutely dreadful offense that badly needs to improve to be able to do some serious damage in the second season. The play of QB Jay Cutler has been reasonable, but not fantastic. He surpassed the 3,000-yard barrier for the season last week in a win against the New York Jets. He now has 3,106 yards and 23 TDs in 2010, but more importantly, the former Vanderbilt Commodore only has thrown 14 INTs.

His top receiver this year is Johnny Knox who is coming off of a huge game in which he caught four passes for 92 yards and a pair of TDs. Knox needs 40 yards in the finale to make it to 1,000 for the year.

You can bet that Matt Forte is going to be in search of at least 22 yards on the ground so he can get to 1,000 yards for the season in this department as well. Forte has come on strong in recent weeks, running for 113 yards against the Jets and 92 yards against the Vikings.

For the Packers, last week's 45-17 win over the New York Giants was a matter of survival, as a loss would have been a disastrous end to the season. Now, they're in control of their own destiny.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers still has a chance to end up throwing for 4,000+ yards for a third straight season, especially after torching the G-Men for 404 yards and four TDs last week. Rodgers has 3,693 yards and 27 scores on the season, and has done a fine job during the campaign in which he really hasn't had much of a running game to work with.

Greg Jennings has been one of the best receivers in the NFL all season long, and if Green Bay is going to beat the NFL odds in this one, he's going to have to be huge. The former Western Michigan Bronco has 72 receptions, 1,168 yards and a dozen TDs.

The Packers had no luck versus the Bears earlier this year at Soldier Field, as Chicago came away with a 20-17 upset as short underdogs. Dating back to 2000, this has been a series that has belonged to Green Bay, though. The Pack is 12-8 SU and 13-6-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings with Chicago. The Bears have not won nor covered a game in this series at Lambeau since 2007.

The Week 17 NFL odds aren't available for this game yet with oddsmakers waiting for the outcome of the Tuesday night Eagles, Vikings contest. If the Eagles lose, Chicago will have significantly less to play for, since a first-round bye would already be ensured.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:13 PM

NFL breakdown: 5-5-5

Earlier this season, we broke down how teams had fared in their first five games and their second five games. With 15 games in the books, let’s look at which teams were most successful ATS in games 11 through 15.
Three teams went 4-1 ATS (80%) in this span. Not surprisingly, conference leaders Atlanta and New England are two of them. Despite its 5-10 record SU, Detroit is the third. The Lions have been consistently good ATS the entire season, going 4-1 in games 1 through 5, 3-1 in games 6-10 and 4-1 in games 11 through 15 for a total league-best record of 11-3 ATS (79%).

The Lions get the Minnesota Vikings off of a very short week in the season finale in Detroit. The Patriots, who have sewn up the top seed in the AFC, host Miami in Week 17. In previous seasons, Bill Belichick has played his starters at least through the first half when they can’t improve their playoff positioning. The Falcons host Carolina with the NFC’s top seed at stake. Despite the success of double-digit ‘dogs for much of the year, the FoxSheets make a compelling case for the Falcons:

Atlanta is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Atlanta 31.6, Opponent 12.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The three worst teams ATS in games 11 through 15 are Cleveland, Houston and Seattle, all at 1-4 (20%). Houston has been consistently poor ATS throughout the season, going 2-2, 1-4, and 1-4 in the three five-game segments for a total of 4-10 (29%). Houston’s opponent in Week 17, Jacksonville, has been a steady 3-2 ATS (60%) in each five-game study for a total of 9-6. That puts them tied for the sixth-best record ATS in the NFL this season. The FoxSheets show the following support for the Jaguars:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Jacksonville) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. (82-42 since 1983.) (66.1%, +35.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Four teams have perfect “over” marks in their last five games. Chicago, Dallas and Seattle are all 5-0 over, while Indianapolis is 4-0. The Cowboys are riding 12 straight overs into their season finale at Philadelphia. The Eagles had their streak of four straight overs snapped in Tuesday night’s upset loss to Minnesota. The Seahawks have participated in eight straight overs. They will put this mark on the line when they host St. Louis Sunday night with the NFC West title on the line. The FoxSheets are littered with data favoring another Over, including these two 4-star gems:

Seattle is 8-0 Over (+8.0 Units) after a loss by 14 or more points this season. The average score was Seattle 22.6, Opponent 28.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Seattle is 8-0 Over (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season. The average score was Seattle 22.6, Opponent 28.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Four teams are 4-1 “under” in their last five games: Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Washington. The Browns and Steelers face each other in Cleveland in Week 17. The Steelers won the first meeting of the season 28-10, barely surpassing the 37-point total. The over/under for this game will again be in the high 30s, but the FoxSheets still suggest another low scoring contest finishing Under:

Play Under - Road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 9 points or less last game. (46-18 since 1983.) (71.9%, +26.2 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:32 PM

NFL Betting Preview: Saints host Bucs in finale

There are plenty of crucial contests on the NFL Week 17 slate, but perhaps none more important than the Tampa Bay, New Orleans matchup at the Louisiana Superdome. At least for the first 30 minutes.

The defending champion Saints are in the postseason already but still have a shot at home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Buccaneers have to win to have any chance of playing more football.

Both New Orleans and Tampa Bay also need a lot of help in addition to winning on their own if dreams are to come true. It all begins at 10 a.m. (PT) from inside the Crescent City's domed stadium with FOX providing the pictures.

A couple of days before kickoff found New Orleans still the clear-cut favorite though the odds have come down from the opening bell. Several shops listed the Saints minus nine early in the week and a few offshore sites still showed them at that number as late as Thursday afternoon. But the consensus was 7½ heading into the weekend.

Likewise, Sunday's total shifted by 1½, with Bookmaker.com's figure dropping from 48 to 46½.

Tampa Bay has done a great job turning it around from a 3-13 season to enter this game still in the playoff hunt. The Bucs have faltered a bit with three dropped efforts in their last five, including a loss to the same Baltimore team that also beat New Orleans recently. The real nail in their coffin may wind up being the 23-20 overtime loss at home to the Detroit Lions two weeks ago. Otherwise, TB's 9-6 records straight up and against the spread are very fine indeed.

The Buccaneers didn't put up much of a fight at all really when they hosted the Saints in Week 6. New Orleans also sort of came out of its early-season funk that day in the 31-6 triumph as 5½-point road chalk. Drew Brees chunked three scores and the Cajuns rolled for a season-high 212 yards on the ground. That one game has gone a long way to skewing Tampa's defensive stats against the run; the Buccaneers rank 28th at 133.4 yard per game.

New Orleans kept its hopes alive for the top seed in the NFC with a 17-14 win in Atlanta just a few days ago on Monday Night Football. Closing as two-point dogs, the Saints rallied in the closing minutes of the defensive battle that entered the final quarter 10-7 in New Orleans' favor. Brees made up for a pair of interceptions – one a pick 6 that gave the Falcons a 14-10 lead early in the fourth quarter – with a TD toss to Jimmy Graham for the winner.

Brees was picked twice by the Falcons to give him 21 on the season and an 11-game streak tossing at least one to the wrong team. Also hampering New Orleans last week were eight penalties to one for Atlanta. Four of those flags went for Falcons first downs or the Saints would've killed the Time Of Possession category they won by a strong 13-minute margin anyway. Atlanta, by the way, leads the NFL in first downs by penalty this season with 39.

Turnovers and giving the Ravens extra first downs hurt Sean Payton's team in the Week 15 loss at Baltimore. So if they can avoid that, it's an easy win this week, right?

Well, no. There will be a lot of scoreboard watching this week, especially by the Saints. Their only path to the top seed in the NFC is if Carolina pulls a giant upset in Atlanta. A Falcons win, and the best the Saints can do is go into the postseason as the top NFC wild card. Atlanta is a two-touchdown favorite in its game versus the Panthers.

You can count on a full 60-minute effort from the Bucs who need to win this game and see both the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants lose this week in order to get into the playoffs. That may sound improbable, but the way the Giants have been playing and the 'Skins coming off an emotional overtime victory in Jacksonville, it's not so far-fetched.

This game screams betting only the first half to begin with, no matter which direction you lean. If you bought the Bucs earlier this week at plus nine, congratulations on a nice juicy number in a game the Saints might slough off the final 15-20 minutes.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:33 PM

Raiders, Chiefs battle NFL odds in KC

Doesn't it still feel weird to see "AFC West Champs" and "Kansas City Chiefs" in the same sentence? Believe it or not, this is the situation that we're in right now, as the Chiefs got the job done last week and made this game a relatively meaningless one in Week 17 against the Oakland Raiders.

Still, KC can win the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs with a 'W' in this matchup on Sunday, though the difference between No. 3 and No. 4 is relatively minimal.

For the Raiders, just finishing at .500 is the key after a fantastic season in which they were in the playoff chase up until last week.

The Raiders might not be in the playoffs this year, but they definitely have nothing to hang their heads about. The play of RB Darren McFadden this season was fantastic, as he rumbled for 1,157 yards and seven TDs in just 13 games. Had he stayed healthy, McFadden might have led the NFL in rushing, and he almost certainly would have been a Pro Bowler.

Quarterback Jason Campbell is just looking to pick up some momentum for next year, as he hopes to maintain his hold on the starting quarterback job in Oakland. Campbell has thrown for 2,232 yards and 12 TDs against eight picks this year, and though he hasn't always been at his best, he really has had a few tremendous games. He played well against KC the first time around, throwing for 229 yards and a TD.

The man that really had the big day the first time around was WR Jacoby Ford. The former Clemson Tiger caught six passes for 148 yards, including the big pass play that set up the game winning field goal in overtime. He also had a 94 yard kick return for a TD to boot that day, a feat that he also pulled off last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

Kansas City doesn't have all that much to play for, and it is unclear how head coach Todd Haley is going to handle it with a playoff game coming up next week. We don't figure to see all that much from QB Matt Cassel, who was snubbed from the Pro Bowl this year after throwing for 3,001 yards and 27 TDs against only five INTs.

One man that is going to the Pro Bowl is RB Jamaal Charles who rumbled for 1,380 yards and four scores. His backfield mate, Thomas Jones, is just 121 yards away from joining him in the 1,000-yard club this year. If these two don't play that much, rookie Dexter McCluster and Jackie Battle are likely to be on call.

The Kansas City defense enters this one ranked No. 9 in the league in scoring at 19.7 PPG, and the team has kept three of its last four foes to 14 points or fewer.

The win for Oakland at the "Black Hole" earlier this year marked the first cover for a home team in this series since 2005. The visitors are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series.

If the Raiders are finishing at .500, they are going to have to do so as 3 ½-point underdogs on the NFL odds at DSI. The 'total' for this AFC West clash has been lined at 43 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:34 PM

Rams and Seahawks clash for NFC West crown

Judging just by a won-lost standard, Sunday night’s matchup between the 7-8 St. Louis Rams and 6-9 Seattle Seahawks shouldn’t mean anything.

The sad reality is different as this game decides the NFC West Division title.

The visiting Rams are three-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 41 ½. Kickoff is 5:20 p.m. PT with NBC televising.

St. Louis was 1-15 last season. So, yes, there has been great improvement. Still, the Rams have defeated only one team, San Diego, with a winning record.

But what’s even scarier is the Seahawks are worse. Seattle is bidding to become the first sub-.500 division winner in NFL history.

There are 21 teams that have the same amount or more victories than Seattle. The Seahawks have been outscored by 107 points and outgained by 1,034 yards.

Seattle is 2-7 in its last nine games, including losing its last three. The Seahawks have permitted at least 33 points seven times during this nine-week span. It’s a big reason why the ‘over’ has cashed in Seattle’s last eight games.

The Seahawks’ average losing margin in all of their games is 21 points. Starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has played so poorly that it’s not a big deal that backup Charlie Whitehurst probably is going to start against the Rams.

Hasselbeck, who entered last Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay with 10 turnovers in his previous four games, suffered a lower back/hip injury after throwing just four passes versus the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay easily defeated the Seahawks, 38-15, as five-point home favorites with the combined 53 points going ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

Whitehurst, a five-year undistinguished veteran, was 11-of-18 for 66 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions against Tampa Bay. He has started one NFL game.

The Seahawks rank last in rushing yards and are 28th in total offense. Their defense is just as bad if not worse ranking 29th in points allowed at 26.7 per game and is 30th in total defense.

Sam Bradford is a shoo-in to win Rookie of the Year honors. He’s completed 335 passes, most ever for a first-year player. Led by Bradford and running back Steven Jackson, the Rams are averaging 18.9 points a game. This ranks only 25th, but is a step up from last season’s league-low average of 10.9 points per contest.

Jackson rates 11th in rushing with 1,196 yards on the ground, his sixth consecutive season with more than 1,000 yards running. Jackson provides the Rams with something the Seahawks lack – a dependable runner.

St. Louis is seeking its first NFC West title since 2003. The Rams were 6-42 during their past three years entering this season. They are 6-0 ATS this year when facing teams with a losing record.

Seattle is trying to capture the NFC West for the fifth time in the last seven years. Qwest Field may be the loudest outdoor stadium in the league. But the Seahawks’ home field advantage hasn’t been that strong recently. Seattle is 10-13 at home the past three seasons, including 4-3 this season.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Sunday evening in the Emerald City with a 20 percent chance of rain and little wind.

Seattle has defeated the Rams at home during each of the past five years, covering four times. The Seahawks shut out St. Louis at home last season, 28-0. Going back the past 11 years, Seattle is 10-1 at home versus St. Louis covering eight of the 11 times.

The Rams defeated the Seahawks, 20-3, at home in Week 4. That victory halted the Rams’ 10-game losing streak to Seattle. Bradford threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:35 PM

Colts draw 10-point NFL spread versus Titans

The Indianapolis Colts can clinch the AFC South with a win at home on Sunday against Tennessee. If the Colts win as expected, they would get into the playoffs for the ninth straight season which would tie an NFL betting record.

The Colts are a game ahead of Jacksonville so they will clinch with a win or a Jacksonville loss against Houston.

Indianapolis is 10-point favorite with a total of 48 at *** Global.com.

The Colts have been in playoff mode for the past three weeks and they have come away with three straight victories. Last week they won at Oakland by a score of 31-26. Indianapolis has been running the ball effectively recently as Joseph Addai has returned from injury and the addition of Dominic Rhodes has helped. Rhodes ran for 98 yards on 17 carries last week while Addai had 45 yards and a TD.

The running game was needed last week as quarterback Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 179 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Manning threw for 319 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks ago when the Colts won 30-28 at Tennessee.

The Tennessee Titans broke their six-game losing streak two weeks ago but they lost last week at Kansas City. The Titans may go with some younger players on Sunday but not at quarterback where Kerry Collins will get the start. In the game against Indianapolis on Dec. 9, he threw for 244 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Tennessee has lost six of the last seven games at Indianapolis including the last two. Here are more football betting stats for Sunday’s game:

•The Titans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus AFC teams.
•Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.
•The Titans are 3-12 ATS when facing a team with a winning record.
•Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in the last four road games.
•The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings at Indianapolis.
•The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Week 17 games
•Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
For NFL totals bettors, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Titans' last six games as an underdog. The 'under' is 7-2 Tennessee's last nine versus the AFC South.

The 'over' is 5-0-1 in the Colts' last six games overall and 5-1 in their last six against division foes. Indianapolis has seen the 'under' go a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings with the Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:37 PM

Stakes high in Packers, Bears NFL betting clash

Of all of the games on the Week 17 NFL betting slate, there aren't many that mean more than the matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

For Chicago, the formula is relatively simple. A win locks up a first-round bye for the NFC North champs in the NFC playoffs. A loss requires a loss at some point by the Philadelphia Eagles to get the job done and get the Bears a week off. A win parlayed with losses by both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will earn Chicago the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage to the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers really needs a victory to make sure that it gets into the playoffs. If the Packers lose, they would need both the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be defeated in Week 17.

The Bears still have an absolutely dreadful offense that badly needs to improve to be able to do some serious damage in the second season. The play of QB Jay Cutler has been reasonable, but not fantastic. He surpassed the 3,000-yard barrier for the season last week in a win against the New York Jets. He now has 3,106 yards and 23 TDs in 2010, but more importantly, the former Vanderbilt Commodore only has thrown 14 INTs.

His top receiver this year is Johnny Knox who is coming off of a huge game in which he caught four passes for 92 yards and a pair of TDs. Knox needs 40 yards in the finale to make it to 1,000 for the year.

You can bet that Matt Forte is going to be in search of at least 22 yards on the ground so he can get to 1,000 yards for the season in this department as well. Forte has come on strong in recent weeks, running for 113 yards against the Jets and 92 yards against the Vikings.

For the Packers, last week's 45-17 win over the New York Giants was a matter of survival, as a loss would have been a disastrous end to the season. Now, they're in control of their own destiny.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers still has a chance to end up throwing for 4,000+ yards for a third straight season, especially after torching the G-Men for 404 yards and four TDs last week. Rodgers has 3,693 yards and 27 scores on the season, and has done a fine job during the campaign in which he really hasn't had much of a running game to work with.

Greg Jennings has been one of the best receivers in the NFL all season long, and if Green Bay is going to beat the NFL odds in this one, he's going to have to be huge. The former Western Michigan Bronco has 72 receptions, 1,168 yards and a dozen TDs.

The Packers had no luck versus the Bears earlier this year at Soldier Field, as Chicago came away with a 20-17 upset as short underdogs. Dating back to 2000, this has been a series that has belonged to Green Bay, though. The Pack is 12-8 SU and 13-6-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings with Chicago. The Bears have not won nor covered a game in this series at Lambeau since 2007.

The Week 17 NFL odds aren't available for this game yet with oddsmakers waiting for the outcome of the Tuesday night Eagles, Vikings contest. If the Eagles lose, Chicago will have significantly less to play for, since a first-round bye would already be ensured.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 01:38 PM

NFL Odds: Deflated Chargers finish at Denver

Norv Turner has flirted with disaster before with slow starts in his three previous years coaching the San Diego Chargers.

This year Turner got bit.

No playoffs for the 8-7 Chargers despite an MVP-caliber season from Philip Rivers, ranking No. 1 in total defense and second in total offense.

The key handicapping question now is can the deflated Chargers cover as 3 ½-point road underdogs against a vastly inferior Denver squad that is in the process of auditioning Tim Tebow?

Kickoff at Invesco Field is 1:15 p.m. PT. The total is 47. The weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with partly cloudy skies and little wind.

The last time San Diego failed to make the postseason was 2005. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their road matchups this season, including losing, 34-20, at Cincinnati last Sunday as nine-point favorites. The combined 54 points went ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

San Diego is 8-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game. The Chargers have covered in six of their last eight games, while scoring 32 or more points during seven of their past nine games.

Star tight end Antonio Gates remains out with a foot injury, but Rivers is in line to pad his already huge numbers. Rivers has a career-best 4,397 yards passing, a 66.7 completion percentage and 30 touchdown throws. He is the NFL’s No. 2 rated passer behind Tom Brady.

Rivers will be operating against a befuddled Denver defense that lacks speed, doesn’t tackle well and isn’t well suited to play either a 3-4 or 4-3. This is reflected in the Broncos ranking second-from-the-bottom in yardage allowed and run defense. Denver is surrendering 29.2 points a game, worst in the NFL.

The Broncos will set a franchise record for points given up in a season if they yield 36 to the Chargers. Star veteran defensive backs Champ Bailey and safety Brian Dawkins might not play either due to injuries.

It’s not a surprise that with such a bad defense, the ‘over’ has cashed in 16 of Denver’s last 21 games. The ‘over’ is 4-1-1 in San Diego’s last six road contests.

Kyle Orton’s sore ribs are better, but he’s on the bench as the Broncos continue to look at the rookie Tebow. This will be Tebow’s third NFL start.

Tebow isn’t schooled in operating a pro-style offense, but he’s well-regarded as a leader and is a capable runner. He sparked the Broncos past Houston, 24-23, last week as two-point home ‘dogs in a game they trailed, 23-10. The combined 47 points dipped ‘under’ the 49 ½-point total.

Tebow took advantage of an inept Texans defense to complete 16 of 29 passes for 308 yards and one touchdown throw, while running in for the game-winning score from six yards out.

A key will be if Tebow, who has yet to develop a presence in the pocket, can accomplish this much against a statistically-strong Chargers defense. Tebow has an excellent target in Brandon Lloyd, the NFL leader in receiving yards with 1,375. That’s the second-most receiving yards in Denver history behind Rod Smith’s 1,602 set in 2000.

Denver averaged just 256.6 yards in its three previous games before piling up 431 yards versus Houston.

Denver is 11-25-1 ATS in its past 37 home games. The Broncos have lost 17 of their past 23 games. Interim coach Eric Studesville is 1-2 replacing Josh McDaniels.

San Diego is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine meetings versus Denver, winning seven of the past nine times. The teams met at Qualcomm Stadium on Nov. 22 and Denver took a quick 7-0 lead. The Chargers then scored five straight touchdowns in winning, 35-14, as nine-point home favorites. The combined 49 points dipped ‘under’ the 50-point total. Rivers threw four touchdowns in the victory.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-02-2011, 09:35 AM

Week 17 Late Kickoffs
December 30, 2010

We've made it to the final week of the NFL's regular season with several playoff seedings up for grabs. It's a full card on Sunday with no Monday night game and for the first time ever, all games in Week 17 will involve divisional matchups. The NFC West title is up in the air as the Seahawks battle the Rams at Qwest Field, while the NFC South and AFC North championships have not been decided yet. We'll start in the AFC South as the Colts are one win away from their seventh division title in the last eight years.

Titans at Colts (-9 ½, 48) - 4:15 PM EST

Indianapolis is turning it on at the right time with three straight victories as the Colts sit on the doorstep of another division championship. The final hurdle for Peyton Manning's Colts is to knock off Tennessee for the second time this month to ensure a trip back to the postseason. The Titans have struggled over the last two months by losing seven of their past eight games.

The Colts' offense is getting healthier after the return of running back Joseph Addai in last Sunday's 31-26 victory at Oakland, the fourth consecutive game Indianapolis has broken the 30-point mark (resulting in four straight 'overs'). The running game has struggled all season for the Colts, but they rushed for 191 yards against the Raiders, including 98 from former Super Bowl hero Dominic Rhodes. Indianapolis owns an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS ledger since the start of last season at home following a win.

Tennessee is crawling to the finish line following an impressive 5-2 start, with the only victory in the last eight games coming over struggling Houston in Week 15. The Titans managed a late cover against the Colts in a 30-28 home loss as three-point underdogs in Week 14, but Tennessee is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four games as a road 'dog since a 3-0 ATS start on the highway.

Jaguars at Texans (-2 ½, 46) - 4:15 PM EST

Jacksonville needs help to win the division and that doesn't even involve Indianapolis necessarily. The Jags will have to beat the Texans and the Colts to fall to Tennessee, but quarterback David Garrard is out with a finger injury, further complicating Jacksonville's chances. Also, leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew is listed as doubtful with a knee injury that kept him out of last week's detrimental home overtime loss to the underachieving Redskins.

Houston is in no happy mood this week after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead in a 24-23 setback at Denver last week, the ninth loss in the previous 10 games for Gary Kubiak's team. The beleaguered head coach may be roaming the sidelines for the final time in Houston after failing to make the postseason once again following preseason aspirations to play January football. The Texans haven't helped backers at home with a dreadful 2-5 ATS mark at Reliant Stadium, while going 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS against division foes since 2009.

The Jaguars were dealt a huge blow with the setback to Washington in Week 16, but with Garrard and Jones-Drew sidelined, the division title hopes rest in the hands of former Bills' quarterback Trent Edwards. The ex-Stanford standout will be making his first start for Jacksonville after Todd Bouman played in place of Garrard in the Week 9 blowout loss at Kansas City. This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair as Jacksonville is 6-1 to the 'over,' while facing the league's worst pass defense.

Bears at Packers (-10, 41 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

These two NFC North rivals have completely different motivating factors heading into this matchup at Lambeau Field. Chicago is guaranteed a first-round bye following Philadelphia's loss to Minnesota on Tuesday, while Green Bay needs a victory to clinch the final Wild Card spot. The Packers blew out the Giants last Sunday to stay alive in the playoff race with a 45-17 victory as three-point favorites.

The Bears rallied past the Packers back in Week 3 at Soldier Field, 20-17, one of six Green Bay losses by four points or fewer. Despite the lack of running game, Mike McCarthy's club has managed to score plenty of points at home as the Packers are 5-2 to the 'over' at Lambeau this season. Since 2006, Green Bay owns an 8-6 ATS mark at home against division opponents, while going 5-2 ATS as a home double-digit favorite in this span.

The Bears will know by kickoff if they have an opportunity to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by virtue of Atlanta losing to 2-13 Carolina at home. Assuming the Falcons take care of business, Chicago may sit many of its regular starters to avoid injury with two weeks off until its first playoff game in the second round. The Bears have compiled a 5-2 ATS ledger as an underdog this season, while winning all but one road game in seven tries.

Giants (-4, 44 ½) at Redskins - 4:15 PM EST

The wheels have fallen off the wagon of Tom Coughlin's Giants following consecutive losses to the Eagles and Packers the last two weeks. New York needs some help to get back to the postseason, but the first task is to knock off its division rival Washington on the road. The Redskins' offense has seen a bit of spark under Rex Grossman, picking up covers on the highway the last two weeks, including an outright overtime shocker of the Jaguars as seven-point 'dogs.

New York chased out Washington at the new Meadowlands, 31-7 in Week 13 as seven-point favorites thanks to four rushing touchdowns. The Giants are just 2-3 SU/ATS against division foes this season, but own an 8-3 ATS mark on the road inside the NFC East since 2008. New York's defense needs to step up in this spot after allowing 83 points the last two games, including 73 points in the past five quarters.

The Redskins aren't going anywhere and may be parting ways with Donovan McNabb, but Washington is showing some signs of life the last two weeks. Washington rallied to tie Dallas late, even though the Cowboys won the game with a field goal in the final minutes. Last week's triumph at Jacksonville still gives Mike Shanahan's team a shot at a 7-9 season if it can beat the Giants on Sunday. For the exception of the 59-28 setback suffered to the Eagles, the other four home losses by the Redskins have come by four points or less.

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