The Bum's NFL Week # 16 Best Bets-News, Notes + More

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Saints try to halt Atlanta's 8-game win streak


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4)
at ATLANTA FALCONS (12-2)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -2.5, Total: 49

The red-hot Falcons look to win the NFC South for the first time in six years and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs when they host New Orleans Monday night. The Saints are still holding out hope of winning the division, and will have a chance if they leave the Georgia Dome victorious. That won’t be easy against an Atlanta team that has won eight straight games, covering the spread in seven of those wins. New Orleans could be without its top RB Chris Ivory, who is questionable with a hamstring injury.

New Orleans is looking to avenge its Week 3 home loss to Atlanta when kicker Garrett Hartley missed a 29-yard field goal in overtime, and the Falcons eventually won 27-24. QB Drew Brees (294 pass YPG, 31 TD, 19 INT this year) has loved the Monday Night spotlight, winning four straight games on Monday night. In these four games, he completed 76% of his passes for an average of 314 YPG, 13 TD and just one interception. For the Saints to win this game, the run defense will need to play better than it did in Week 3 when it surrendered 202 yards to Atlanta. New Orleans allowed a season-high 208 yards in last Sunday’s loss at Baltimore.

The Falcons have been perfect at home this year, going 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 28 to 19. They have been on the road for three straight games, so the crowd will be extra charged up for the team’s first home game since Nov. 28. Matt Ryan (237 pass YPG, 25 TD, 9 INT) and Michael Turner (1,256 rush yds, 11 TD) did not play against the Saints the last time they met. Ryan has been virtually unbeatable at home. He has won 15 straight home games and is 19-1 in his career at the Georgia Dome. In his six home games this year, Ryan has thrown for 1,545 yards (258 per game) with 12 TD and 3 INT. Turner is averaging 105 rushing YPG with five scores in his past five games. He also has 422 rushing yards and 4 TD in four games against New Orleans in a Falcons uniform.

These teams have been evenly matched in the past, with Atlanta 19-18 SU since 1992 and an even 9-9 SU split in the past 18 meetings in Atlanta. The FoxSheets give two reasons to take underdog New Orleans on Monday night.

Play On - Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*).

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 34.6, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend expects the game will finish Over the Total:

ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.The average score was ATLANTA 29.3, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*).

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MNF - Saints at Falcons
December 26, 2010


The final Monday Night game of the regular season takes place at the Georgia Dome as the Falcons look to grab home-field advantage in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The only thing standing in their way is the defending Super Bowl champion Saints, who need a win themselves to get back to the postseason.

Atlanta has been terrific at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback since the Falcons drafted him in 2008. The Falcons own a 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS mark in games that Ryan has started at the Georgia Dome, including a 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS ledger this season. Atlanta has won eight straight games overall, while coming off a perfect 3-0 road sweep at Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Seattle.

Past the Falcons' impressive 12-2 record, Atlanta has helped backers this season with six consecutive covers and a 10-4 ATS mark. The offensive numbers are strong for Mike Smith's club, who rank fifth in the NFL by scoring 26.4 ppg. Michael Turner is fifth in the league in rushing, while Roddy White enters the weekend leading the NFL in receiving yards with 1284 yards.

The Saints rolled through NFC last season en route to their first-ever Super Bowl title, but New Orleans may have to settle for a road game in the Wild Card round. Sean Payton's club had a six-game winning streak halted in a 30-24 loss at Baltimore last week, further distancing the Saints from the Falcons with two games remaining. However, New Orleans has still been a strong road team 5-2 SU mark, but has covered only twice on the highway (each against division foes).

New Orleans had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover through the first seven weeks of the season with a surprising 4-3 start, capped off by a 30-17 drubbing at the hands of the Browns as 12-point home favorites. The offense has picked things up since that defeat by scoring at least 30 points in five games, but the defense has allowed at least 27 points in three of the previous four contests.

The Falcons will be going for the season sweep of their division rivals on Monday night after Atlanta shocked New Orleans at the Superdome, 27-24 in overtime back in Week 3. This back-and-forth affair will go down as one of the most exciting games of the season, as Matt Bryant's 46-yard field goal with less than two minutes left in overtime sealed the win. Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley missed a chip-shot field goal which would have given New Orleans a 3-0 start, but turned into a eventual tiebreaking loss within the division race months later.

The Saints have won three of the last four meetings at the Georgia Dome, including a 26-23 victory as 10-point favorites last December. However, Ryan and Turner sat out that loss with injuries as the Falcons fought valiantly to grab the underdog cover. The Falcons knocked off the Saints at home in Ryan's rookie season of 2008 by a 34-22 count, despite 422 passing yards from Drew Brees.

New Orleans has turned into a nice 'over' play over the last five weeks by cashing four times. The lone 'under' came three points short in a 31-13 victory over the Rams in Week 14, as that game was on pace to go 'over' if it wasn't for several botched opportunities. The 'over' is hitting at a nice rate for the Falcons as well, going 7-1-1 the last nine games, including in the Week 15 victory at Seattle.

The Falcons are listed as 2 ½-point favorites at most spots, but the number is slowly dipping down to two with late action on the Saints. The total is set at 49 at a majority of sportsbooks, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- So much for bad weather slowing down the Bears, who hit another 'over' against the Jets on Sunday. That's three 'overs' in inclement weather for Chicago, who also cashed the 'over' against New England and Minnesota in previous weeks. The Bears also have done enough to grab at least a first-round bye following their shootout victory over New York.

-- The Patriots wrapped up home-field advantage with an easy win at Buffalo as New England improved to 17-1 against the Bills with Tom Brady under center. Since New England dumped Randy Moss after Week 4's blowout of Miami, the Pats are 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS.

-- The Chiefs wrapped up their first division title since 2003 after thumping the Titans at home, coupled with San Diego's loss at undermanned Cincinnati. Kansas City has made significant strides this season at 10-5, but the most telling stat is the reclaimed home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. Todd Haley's club is a perfect 7-0 at home as they welcome in the Raiders next Sunday.

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Saints, Falcons end Monday Night Football betting slate


Monday Night Football's 16-week slate of broadcasts have produced a few routs, a couple of stinker matchups and one game that wasn't even on the schedule or played at its original site. The season wraps up with a bang this Monday with a battle of NFC South rivals going at it in Atlanta where the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints (5:30 p.m. PT, ESPN).

Atlanta can sew up the division title and guarantee itself home-field advantage in the NFC postseason with a win over the defending champion Saints. New Orleans still has designs on both the division and home-field through the playoffs, but will need some help even with a win over the Falcons in this clash.

The Falcons are giving up 2½ at most NFL betting shops entering the weekend. Monday night's total is 48½ at Bookmaker.com, up a point from the opener.



No team has ever won back-to-back NFC South crowns. Atlanta's two-game lead over New Orleans entering play Monday suggests that trend will continue. The Falcons (12-2 straight up, 10-4 against the spread) are working on an eight-game win streak and are a perfect 6-0 on the Georgia Dome turf this campaign.

You have to go back to Nov. 16, 2008 to find the last time the Georgians fell on this field with Matt Ryan as their quarterback. A 24-20 loss to Denver as seven-point favorites that day remains Ryan's only blemish as a pro starter in front of the home crowd. He hasn't done too shabby on the road this year either.

Atlanta has been away from the friendly confines of its dome for three weeks, registering wins in Tampa Bay (28-24), at Carolina (31-10) and last week in Seattle (34-18). Ryan had his fourth 3-TD performance through the air this season in the triumph over the Seahawks, completing 20-of-35 for 174 yards, but did toss his fourth interception during the stretch away from Atlanta. His last INT in the Georgia Dome was a Week 7, 39-32 win against the Bengals.

The current eight-game win streak includes six consecutive spread victories as well. Atlanta backers are up 5.6 units so far, second-best on the NFL odds list behind Detroit's 6.7 profit.

New Orleans (10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS) saw its six-game winning stretch snapped in Week 15 with a 30-24 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens, two-point chalk at M&T Bank Stadium, rode the legs and hands of Ray Rice to victory. The third-year back out of Rutgers scored twice, ran for 153 yards and collected 80 more through the air on five receptions.

The loss was only the second of the season on the road by the Saints, the other a Week 5 upset at the hands of the Cardinals. However, their 5-2 mark away from Louisiana is tempered by a 2-5 record versus the number.

New Orleans is also 5-2 at home where they've cashed six of seven times. The lone spread loss came to the Falcons in a Week 3 matchup. Favored by a field goal, the Saints instead lost by a field goal in overtime, 27-24. And it was a missed chip shot in OT by New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley that kept the Cajuns out of the win column. Hartley didn't play in the next two New Orleans games, replaced by 46-year-old kicking coach John Carney in Weeks 4 and 5. Hartley has since returned to hit 13-of-15 three-pointers and all 30 extra points.

That win was the third consecutive time Falcons backers cashed in this series, fourth in the last five meetings. The 'over' is on a 5-1 series run, and both squads have gone that way this season with the Saints 8-6 to the high side and Atlanta 9-4-1.

When I said the Saints would still need help to take the NFC South even with a win in this one, I should've said they need big help. Enormous, gigantic help, as in the form of an incredible upset when the Falcons host the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. The Saints will also be on their home turf to close the regular season, hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both games are slated for 10 a.m. PT kicks.

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Tuesday, December 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia -14 500
Philadelphia - Under 44 500

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Eagles host Vikings in rare Tuesday game


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-9)
at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-4)


Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -14, Total: 42

A blizzard in Philadelphia has created a Tuesday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. The extra rest could allow QB Brett Favre and RB Adrian Peterson to suit up after all. Favre (concussion) is still unlikely to play, but Peterson (thigh/knee) says he will start on Tuesday night. Philly’s star player, QB Michael Vick, also gets two more days to rest his injured leg. This will be the first Tuesday night NFL game since 1946.

If Favre is unable to go, the Vikings will once again put rookie Joe Webb under center. Webb’s first NFL start last week was a struggle, as he completed 15-of-26 passes for 129 and two interceptions. Peterson, who is second in the NFL with 1,481 total yards, missed last week’s game against Chicago with a bruised thigh. Rookie RB Toby Gerhart played well in Peterson’s absence, gaining 77 yards on 16 carries against a tough Bears defense. The Vikings offense has not tallied more than 300 yards in five of their past six games, carrying a 2-4 SU record over that span. The defense has played better of late, and now ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 308 YPG.

Philadelphia has no ordinary offense, piling up 404 YPG and 29.4 PPG this season. The Eagles have been on a roll in winning six of their past seven games. The last win came on Dec. 19 when they erased a 21-point, fourth-quarter deficit capped by DeSean Jackson’s game-winning punt return TD to stun the Giants. Vick has been incredible this season (103.6 QB rating, 20 TD, 5 INT), but RB LeSean McCoy has also been superb, leading the NFL with 1,587 yards from scrimmage.

Minnesota has lost six straight games in Philadelphia and five straight overall to the Eagles. The Vikings are also 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season. However, the FoxSheets give two reasons to take underdog Minnesota to keep the margin below the two-touchdown spread.

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. (56-27 since 1983.) (67.5%, +26.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. (50-22 since 1983.) (69.4%, +25.8 units. Rating = 2*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend expects the game will finish Over the Total:

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (90-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +43.8 units. Rating = 3*).