The Bum's NFL Week # 16 Best Bets-News, Notes + More

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Rodgers will start Sunday vs. Giants


NEW YORK GIANTS (9-5)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 43

Although both teams blew chances towards winning division titles last week, both the Giants and Packers can still make the playoffs as wild-card teams. Green Bay’s chances to win are much greater with QB Aaron Rodgers returning to the field Sunday after missing last week’s loss in New England due to concussion symptoms.

Speaking of losses, the Giants blew a 21-point lead with less than eight minutes to play against Philadelphia last week, capped off by DeSean Jackson’s punt-return touchdown on the game’s final play. Despite the loss, Eli Manning played very well, throwing for 289 yards and 4 TD to give him 28 on the season. However, Manning also leads the NFL with 20 interceptions, and the Packers have the league’s third-best pass defense (192 YPG). Despite being held to just 100 rushing yards on 31 carries last week, New York is still fifth in the NFL with 145 rushing YPG. Ahmad Bradshaw (1,182 rushing yards) and Brandon Jacobs (727 rushing yards) each have eight scores on the ground this year.

Rodgers’ back-up Matt Flynn played pretty well in his first career start, throwing for 251 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots. Despite the loss, Green Bay outgained New England 369 to 249 and possessed the football for more than 40 minutes. Rodgers threw for 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in the four games prior to suffering a concussion on Dec. 12. He is averaging 239 passing YPG with 23 TD and 10 INT for the season. Brandon Jackson leads Green Bay in rushing with 645 yards, including 99 last week against the Patriots. Jackson will have a tougher time gaining yards this week facing the Giants’ 10th-ranked rush defense (102 YPG).

2nd in pass defense (188 YPG)These teams meet for the first time in four seasons when the Giants won the NFC Championship in Lambeau Field, 23-20 in overtime. This FoxSheets coaching trend expects Green Bay to get its payback on Sunday.

Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.8, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also thinks the game will finish Under the Total:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off a road loss, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (59-25 since 1983.) (70.2%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*).

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Sanchez will be game-time decision at Chicago

NEW YORK JETS (10-4)
at CHICAGO BEARS (10-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1, Total: 36.5

Two 10-win teams meet in Chicago in hopes of improving their playoff standing. Chicago clinched the NFC North with Monday’s win over Minnesota and is gunning for a first-round bye. The Jets need one more victory to secure a playoff spot as a wild card team, trailing New England by two games in the AFC East. But they might have to battle a tough Bears defense without QB Mark Sanchez who will be a game-time decision because of a shoulder injury. If he can’t play, 40-year-old Mark Brunell would start under center for New York.

The Jets also have a key injury to their wide receiver corps as Santonio Holmes has been limited in practice this week with a turf toe injury. Holmes (660 rec. yds, 4 TD) is expected to play. New York’s secondary is also banged-up with FS Eric Smith (concussion) and SS Jim Leonhard (tibia) both out for Sunday’s game.

The Jets will also be missing their best run blocker, OT Damien Woody, who is out with a knee injury. This will make it even harder for New York’s sixth-best rushing attack, led by LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, to gain yards against Chicago’s run defense ranked third in the NFL (90 YPG). Brunell is a downgrade from Sanchez, but the second-year quarterback has not had a great season. Sanchez has the fifth-worst passer rating (74.6) among qualified QBs. His completion percentage (54.0%) ranks third-to-last among these 32 quarterbacks and he has only thrown for 16 TD with 12 INT for the season.

Chicago is in good shape on the injury front. WR Earl Bennett (ankle) is questionable, but there are no other significant injuries to the Bears’ players. After getting blown out 36-7 at home against New England, the Chicago offense came back strong in Monday’s 40-14 win in Minnesota. QB Jay Cutler tossed three touchdowns against the Vikings, giving him 12 TD in his past seven games. RB Matt Forte rushed for 92 yards on Monday to give him 502 total yards (395 rushing, 107 receiving) in his past five games. Despite the efforts of this duo, Chicago still ranks 25th in the NFL in rushing yards (99 YPG) and 26th in passing yards (193 YPG). The Jets defense is fourth-best in stopping the run (93 YPG) and ranks eighth in passing defense (206 YPG).

These teams have only met twice in the past 10 seasons, with Chicago winning both games. The Bears won 20-13 at home in 2002 and then shut out the Jets at the Meadowlands 10-0 in 2006. This FoxSheets trend expects Chicago to win again on Sunday.

Play Against - Road teams (NY JETS) - off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. (100-56 since 1983.) (64.1%, +38.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Over the Total:

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO, NY JETS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (88-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.7%, +41.8 units. Rating = 3*).

NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games this season. The average score was NY JETS 23.9, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 3*).

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Jaguars' Jones-Drew doubtful against Redskins

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has missed a third consecutive day of practice, casting doubt about his availability against Washington.

Jones-Drew was listed at doubtful on Friday's injury report, but coach Jack Del Rio declined to reveal whether he expects his star to try to play against the Redskins.

Del Rio says the Jaguars are ``going to monitor his condition throughout the weekend.''

Jones-Drew has dealt with knee problems most of the season, but his right one really became problematic after his sixth consecutive 100-yard game, Dec. 12 against Oakland. He missed two days of practice last week, and Indianapolis held him to 46 yards on the ground.

He sat out practice Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week

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Saturday, December 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 7:30 PM ET Dallas -7 500
Arizona - Over 45 500

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Cowboys visit Arizona for Christmas

DALLAS COWBOYS (5-9)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-10)


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -7, Total: 45.5

Two pre-season favorites to win their respective divisions meet on Christmas night for a game that means very little. The 5-9 Cowboys have played much better of late, winning four of six and going 5-1 ATS since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips as interim head coach. The Cardinals have been dreadful recently, going 1-8 SU (2-7 ATS) in their past nine games.

Despite QB Tony Romo missing the majority of the season, the Cowboys offense has not really been affected with back-up Jon Kitna taking over. Kitna is averaging 250 passing YPG with 15 touchdowns in nine contests. He has also tossed 10 interceptions, but only three in his past five games. The running game has also kicked into gear, averaging 140.3 YPG in the six games since Garrett took over. Another area the team has excelled in is turnovers. The Cowboys have forced at least two turnovers in all six games under Garrett, posting an impressive +9 margin (16 for, 7 against).

The putrid three-headed QB carousel of Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton continues to be a disaster. Skelton has played the past three games, but has yet to throw a touchdown, completing just 46% of his passes (35-for-76). Arizona has four consecutive sub-200-yard passing games. The ground game has also been terrible. Even with the 211 yards they posted against Denver’s horrendous run defense, the Cardinals have averaged only 81 rushing YPG in their past seven games.

Including playoffs, these teams have met 12 times since 1999, with an even 6-6 SU split. Dallas covered in two of its losses to take an 8-4 ATS advantage. These two FoxSheets trends expect Arizona to cover the spread on Saturday night.

DALLAS is 4-20 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.The average score was DALLAS 17.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Ken Whisenhunt is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 30.9, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets give six-star and five-star reasons to bet the Over:

DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf this season. The average score was DALLAS 28.0, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 6*).

DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season. The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 5*).

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Cowboys at Cardinals
December 23, 2010


The Christmas weekend in the NFL continues with a matchup in the desert between two reigning division champions who won't see the postseason again this January. The Cowboys have played well since Jason Garrett's promotion to head coach, winning four of six games to improve to 5-9. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have limped to a 4-10 campaign with a merry-go-round at the quarterback position.

Since Kurt Warner's retirement, the Cards have gone through Derek Anderson and Max Hall at quarterback through the first three months of the season. The results were dreadful, as the offense didn't go anywhere while Arizona fell to the bottom of the NFC West. The Cardinals have settled on ex-Fordham standout John Skelton to take the snaps, leading Arizona to a 1-1 record in his two starts.

Skelton paced the Cardinals to a 43-13 home victory over the Broncos in his debut back in Week 14 as four-point underdogs. The passing game wasn't spectacular by any stretch with just 143 yards by Skelton, but the Cards produced five field goals and a defensive touchdown to beat a struggling Denver squad. Arizona is who we thought they were in an ugly 19-12 loss the next week at Carolina, putting up 218 yards of offense against a Panthers' team that entered the game with just one victory.

The Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments this season in the NFL, but Dallas can finish the season at 7-9 with wins in its final two games. With a trip to Philadelphia lurking in Week 17, the Cowboys will be looking for their fourth road victory of the season this Saturday. Dallas has won each of its last two away contests over the Colts and Giants, while averaging 35.5 ppg in those victories.

The defense has hindered Dallas all season, allowing 30 points or more in each of the last four games. The 'over' is nearly an automatic play for the Cowboys, hitting in 11 straight games and 12 of 14 overall. The biggest problem for Dallas when Tony Romo broke his collarbone in Week 7 against the Giants was if Jon Kitna could save a floundering offense. That question was answered eventually, even though it took the firing of Wade Phillips to rev up the struggling Cowboys' offense.

Following poor performances against Jacksonville and Green Bay in which Dallas was outscored, 70-24, the Cowboys' offense has been one of the best in the league over the last six games by scoring 32.1 ppg. Kitna has tossed 11 touchdowns and four interceptions since Garrett's promotion, including a 305-yard effort in last Sunday's 33-30 victory over the Redskins. However, that non-cover against Washington snapped a five-game ATS winning streak for Dallas since the Week 10 upset of the Giants as 11 ½-point road 'dogs.

Cardinals' head coach Ken Whisenhunt had owned a ridiculous record with Warner under center at home off a loss, going 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS from 2007-09. However, that number has taken a major turn this season with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger, as Arizona will end the season not playing one home game off a win.

The ‘over’ has profited for the Cardinals, but is hitting at an 8-6 clip, as opposed to the propensity of ‘overs’ for Dallas. Five of Arizona’s seven home games have cashed the ‘over,’ with division losses to San Francisco and St. Louis finishing ‘under.’ In the last five weeks, the Cardinals are 4-1 to the ‘under,’ with the 34-point fourth quarter against Denver costing ‘under’ bettors their ticket.

The Cowboys are listed as seven-point favorites at most spots with several 6 ½-point numbers hanging out there. The total is set at 45 across the board, which should entice 'over' backers with Dallas' propensity for high-scoring affairs. The game will kick off at 7:30 PM EDT from Glendale and will be televised nationally on the NFL Network.

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Gridiron Trends - Week 16
December 23, 2010


Panthers at Steelers - The Panthers are 9-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 12, 2003 the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since November 09, 2003 as a home 7+ favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Panthers are 0-6 OU (-6.8 ppg) since December 14, 2008 the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a favorite off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.

Cowboys at Cardinals - The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 10, 1999 when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 as a TD+ favorite. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since December 06, 1992 as a road favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a road favorite when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 09, 2007 on the road when they won their last two road games. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since September 15, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-9-1 OU (-11.6 ppg) since September 17, 1995 as a road favorite after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since October 29, 2000 vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. The Cardinals are 0-6 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a home dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.

Jets at Bears - The Jets are 9-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a favorite when they had at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since October 16, 2006 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. The Bears are 9-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 28, 2001 as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Bears are 6-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since November 05, 2006 at home the week after a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers.

Chargers at Bengals - The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 18, 2006 after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since November 30, 1997 when they got revenge last week at home. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a home dog when their opponent is off two 10+ wins. The Chargers are 9-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since September 11, 2005 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The Bengals are 0-8 OU (-6.4 ppg) since October 08, 2000 at home when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average.

Patriots at Bills - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since October 30, 2006 on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Patriots are 8-0-1 ATS (10.0 ppg) since September 19, 2004 as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (18.1 ppg) since December 27, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (16.9 ppg) since November 07, 2004 on the road the week after as a favorite in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (16.7 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-13.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 at home after a straight up win.

Texans at Broncos - The Texans are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since October 10, 2004 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Texans are 7-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since September 26, 2004 on the road the week after on the road in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since December 03, 2006 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since December 24, 1994 at home the week after on the road in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since September 17, 2006 when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 17, 1995 when they got swept last week. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-23.0 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Texans are 0-8 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 08, 2002 on the road the week after as a dog in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 7-0-1 OU (10.3 ppg) since October 18, 1992 within 3 of pick at home when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Broncos are 6-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since January 09, 2005 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date.

Ravens at Browns - The Ravens are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Browns are 0-10 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since November 10, 1991 as a dog when they allowed revenge last week. The Browns are 8-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 18, 2001 the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since January 01, 2006 as a home dog off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.

Seahawks at Buccaneers - The Buccaneers are 0-8-2 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 20, 2003 as a favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since September 18, 1994 as a home favorite when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date.

Titans at Chiefs - The Titans are 8-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since October 26, 1997 as a road dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Titans are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 29, 2002 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week against a divisional opponent. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 13, 2004 as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Titans are 6-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since November 08, 1998 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents. The Titans are 6-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since September 25, 2005 as a dog after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

Lions at Dolphins - The Lions are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since September 23, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since September 19, 1993 on the road after a win against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 06, 2005 at home when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Dolphins are 7-0-1 ATS (14.7 ppg) since October 24, 2004 when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS (-17.2 ppg) since October 22, 2006 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Lions are 10-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since October 29, 1989 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (18.1 ppg) since October 14, 1990 on the road after a straight up win on the road as a dog. The Dolphins are 7-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since December 20, 2004 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week.

Vikings at Eagles - The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since November 14, 1993 as a dog when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since September 07, 2008 as a home 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Vikings are 9-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since November 19, 2006 after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Eagles are 0-9 OU (-9.3 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a home favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. The Eagles are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since December 16, 1990 as a 7+ favorite when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games.

Redskins at Jaguars - The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 13, 1998 as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since September 14, 2008 when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Redskins are 0-10 OU (-8.6 ppg) since October 13, 1997 as a dog the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since October 01, 2006 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog.

Giants at Packers - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since December 30, 2006 on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 within 3 of pick on the road vs a non-divisional opponent. The Packers are 7-0 OU (11.9 ppg) since December 12, 1999 the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.

Colts at Raiders - The Colts are 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since October 29, 2006 within 3 of pick the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since December 24, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since October 20, 2002 after playing as a TD+ favorite. The Raiders are 8-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since October 05, 2003 after a straight up win at home as a favorite.

49ers at Rams - The 49ers are 0-8-1 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 15, 1998 within 3 of pick on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-8.5 ppg) since January 06, 2002 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The 49ers are 6-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since December 31, 2006 when their completion percentage increased in each of their last two games. The Rams are 8-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since October 09, 2005 at home when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Rams are 0-7-1 OU (-7.4 ppg) since November 13, 2005 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent.

Saints at Falcons - The Saints are 7-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a straight up loss on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after playing as a dog. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since October 09, 2005 when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. The Saints are 8-0 OU (7.1 ppg) since November 08, 1998 as a road dog after a straight up loss on the road. The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU (-8.8 ppg) since October 13, 1996 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.

[StarDust Bum]

Rest equals Reward
December 22, 2010

Does extra time off matter help? A couple weeks back, we glanced at teams playing on Thursdays this season and wanted to see how they played the following week and the rest has definitely helped clubs so far. Let’s take a closer look at the log and see what’s transpired for out purposes – both straight up and against the spread.
Thursday - Nov. 11: Baltimore 20 at Atlanta 26

Following Week
Ravens 37 Panthers 13
Falcons 34 Rams 17

Comments: Baltimore and Atlanta were both listed as road favorites and they each posted double-digit victories. The results were 2-0 both SU and ATS for the rested clubs.

Thursday – Nov. 18: Chicago 16 at Miami 0

Following Week
Bears 31 Eagles 26
Dolphins 33 Raiders 17

Comments: Chicago and Miami were both catching points (+3) despite having extra time to prepare and the pair each captured outright victories again. The results were again 2-0 both SU and ATS.

Thursday – Nov. 25: New England 45 Detroit 24, New Orleans 30 Dallas 2, N.Y. Jets 26 Cincinnati 10

Following Week
New England 45 N.Y. Jets 3
New Orleans 34 Cincinnati 30
Dallas 38 Indianapolis 35
Chicago 24 Detroit 20

Comments: Ironically, two of the matchups (Jets-Patriots, Saints-Bengals) involved teams playing on the holiday so it was going to be a wash either way. In case you forgot, New Orleans beat Cincinnati on the road but failed to cover as a 6 ½-point favorite. And, New England hammered New York as a four-point favorite on MNF. The other two teams, Dallas and Detroit, playing on rest both kept the ATS streak going. The Cowboys knocked off the Colts as six-point pups and even though the Lions lost to Chicago, they managed to cover as five-point home ‘dogs. We’ll toss out the two early games, but tally the results at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.

Thursday – Dec. 2: Houston 24 at Philadelphia 34

Following Week
Philadelphia 30 Dallas 27
Baltimore 34 Houston 28

Comments: Finally, the ATS streak had to come to an end. The Eagles rallied for the win on SNF against the Cowboys but they couldn’t cover as four-point road favorites. And, Houston teased bettors by forcing overtime against Baltimore only to give up the pick-six touchdown to the Ravens. Most books closed the line at Houston as a three-point home underdog so the push was tossed out the window. The results were 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.

Thursday – Dec. 9: Indianapolis 30 Tennessee 28

Following Week
Indianapolis 34 Jacksonville 24
Tennessee 31 Houston 17

Comments: Gamblers celebrating Christmas got an early present last week if they wagered on Indianapolis. The Colts returned an onside kick with under two minutes remaining to go ahead by 10 points and cover as five-point favorites. While that front-door winner wasn’t as deserving as others, the Titans wire-to-wire win over Houston was impressive. The results went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS.

Thursday – Dec. 16: San Diego 34 San Francisco 7

Following Week
San Francisco at St. Louis – Result Pending
San Diego at Cincinnati – Result Pending

Thursday – Dec. 23: Carolina at Pittsburgh (TBD)

Following Week
Carolina at Atlanta – Result Pending
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Result Pending

Like all trends, you have to take them for what their worth but incorporating them into your handicapping formulas isn’t a bad idea. Streaks and skids happen, and right now the rest has been rewarding.

On the season, the rested teams late in the season have compiled an 8-2 record both SU and ATS, with the straight up losses coming by six and four points.

This week, the teams in play are San Diego and San Francisco. The Chargers are laying 7 ½ points to the Bengals on the road, while the 49ers are catching 2 ½ points at St. Louis. The two clubs are still both alive in their conference playoff races, which could make you lean toward the pair even more.

[StarDust Bum]

Rodgers will start Sunday vs. Giants


NEW YORK GIANTS (9-5)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 43

Although both teams blew chances towards winning division titles last week, both the Giants and Packers can still make the playoffs as wild-card teams. Green Bay’s chances to win are much greater with QB Aaron Rodgers returning to the field Sunday after missing last week’s loss in New England due to concussion symptoms.

FS Nick Collins will also play on Sunday despite missing the second half of last week’s game with a rib injury. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews (shin), who is tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks, is also seeing his health improve as he participated in full-contact drills this week. For the Giants, WR Mario Manningham (8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TD last week) will start on Sunday despite hip and heel injuries.

The Giants will try to rebound after blowing a 21-point lead with less than eight minutes to play against Philadelphia last week, capped off by DeSean Jackson’s punt-return touchdown on the game’s final play. Despite the loss, Eli Manning played very well, throwing for 289 yards and 4 TD to give him 28 on the season. However, Manning also leads the NFL with 20 interceptions, and the Packers have the league’s third-best pass defense (192 YPG). Despite being held to just 100 rushing yards on 31 carries last week, New York is still fifth in the NFL with 145 rushing YPG. Ahmad Bradshaw (1,182 rushing yards) and Brandon Jacobs (727 rushing yards) each have eight scores on the ground this year.

Rodgers’ back-up Matt Flynn played pretty well in his first career start, throwing for 251 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots. Despite the loss, Green Bay outgained New England 369 to 249 and possessed the football for more than 40 minutes. Rodgers threw for 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in the four games prior to suffering a concussion on Dec. 12. He is averaging 239 passing YPG with 23 TD and 10 INT for the season. Brandon Jackson leads Green Bay in rushing with 645 yards, including 99 last week against the Patriots. Jackson will have a tougher time gaining yards this week facing the Giants’ 10th-ranked rush defense (102 YPG). New York also ranks 2nd in pass defense, allowing only 188 passing YPG.

These teams meet for the first time in four seasons when the Giants won the NFC Championship in Lambeau Field, 23-20 in overtime. This FoxSheets coaching trend expects Green Bay to get its payback on Sunday.

Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.8, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also thinks the game will finish Under the Total:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off a road loss, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (59-25 since 1983.) (70.2%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Sanchez will start at Chicago


NEW YORK JETS (10-4)
at CHICAGO BEARS (10-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1, Total: 36.5

Two 10-win teams meet in Chicago in hopes of improving their playoff standing. Chicago clinched the NFC North with Monday’s win over Minnesota and is gunning for a first-round bye. The Jets need one more victory to secure a playoff spot as a wild card team, trailing New England by two games in the AFC East. But as they battle a tough Bears defense in below-freezing temperatures, at least they will have QB Mark Sanchez who will start despite a shoulder injury.

The Jets also have a key injury to their wide receiver corps as Santonio Holmes has been limited in practice this week with a turf toe injury. Holmes (660 rec. yds, 4 TD) is expected to play, however. New York’s secondary is also banged-up with FS Eric Smith (concussion) and SS Jim Leonhard (tibia) both out for Sunday’s game.

The Jets will also be missing their best run blocker, OT Damien Woody, who is out with a knee injury. This will make it even harder for New York’s sixth-best rushing attack, led by LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, to gain yards against Chicago’s run defense ranked third in the NFL (90 YPG). Sanchez has not had a great season. Sanchez has the fifth-worst passer rating (74.6) among qualified QBs. His completion percentage (54.0%) ranks third-to-last among these 32 quarterbacks and he has only thrown for 16 TD with 12 INT for the season.

Chicago is in good shape on the injury front. WR Earl Bennett (ankle) has been upgraded to probable, and there are no other significant injuries to the Bears’ players. LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) may also return to action after missing the past three games. After getting blown out 36-7 at home against New England, the Chicago offense came back strong in Monday’s 40-14 win in Minnesota. QB Jay Cutler tossed three touchdowns against the Vikings, giving him 12 TD in his past seven games. RB Matt Forte rushed for 92 yards on Monday to give him 502 total yards (395 rushing, 107 receiving) in his past five games. Despite the efforts of this duo, Chicago still ranks 25th in the NFL in rushing yards (99 YPG) and 26th in passing yards (193 YPG). The Jets defense is fourth-best in stopping the run (93 YPG) and ranks eighth in passing defense (206 YPG).

These teams have only met twice in the past 10 seasons, with Chicago winning both games. The Bears won 20-13 at home in 2002 and then shut out the Jets at the Meadowlands 10-0 in 2006. This FoxSheets trend expects Chicago to win again on Sunday.

Play Against - Road teams (NY JETS) - off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. (100-56 since 1983.) (64.1%, +38.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Over the Total:

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO, NY JETS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (88-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.7%, +41.8 units. Rating = 3*).

NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games this season. The average score was NY JETS 23.9, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Star-filled injury report for Chargers-Bengals game


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-6)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-11)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -8, Total: 43

As has been the case all season, the Chargers will carry an injury-depleted offense when they travel to Cincinnati Sunday and try to keep their playoff hopes alive. TE Antonio Gates (foot, toe) is out and WRs Malcom Floyd (hamstrings) and Patrick Crayton (wrist) are listed as doubtful on the injury report. The good news is that RB Ryan Mathews (illness) will play and RG Louis Vasquez (neck) will return to action for the first time in five games.

The Bengals also have major injuries to their receiving corps. WR Terrell Owens (knee) is on I.R. and WR Chad Ochocinco (ankle) is questionable, and unlikely to play. The running game also has concerns with FB Brian Leonard (ankle) out and RB Bernard Scott (toe) listed as questionable.

******* take:
Injuries are nothing new for Philip Rivers who has been spectacular this year despite being without every significant offensive player at some point this season. Rivers has thrown for 4,141 yards, 29 TD and only 11 INT this year. His No. 1 target Sunday will be WR Vincent Jackson who caught five passes for 112 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over San Francisco. RB Mike Tolbert will continue to carry the rushing workload with Mathews not 100 percent. Tolbert has gained 459 total yards with four touchdowns in his past five games. Defensively, the Chargers have been great all season, leading the NFL in passing defense (170 YPG) and ranking second in rushing defense (89 YPG).

With the injuries to the star receivers, Cincinnati is expected to rely on RB Cedric Benson to carry a huge workload. Benson had his third 100-yard rushing game last week when he rumbled for 150 yards on 31 carries in the win over Cleveland. Benson will benefit from the absence of San Diego’s best linebacker, ILB Stephen Cooper, who will not play due to a knee injury.

San Diego has dominated this series, going 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 meetings, all since 1992. With the Chargers fighting for a playoff spot and Cincinnati simply trying to close out a miserable season, look for the Bolts (who always play well in December) to get a big road victory. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick San Diego.

SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS (77.8%, +19.2 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.8, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*).

SAN DIEGO is 35-14 ATS (71.4%, +19.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.8, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also expect the Over to occur on Sunday:

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. (33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Jones-Drew will not play vs. Redskins


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-9)
at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Jacksonville -6.5, Total: 45.5

The Jaguars are clinging to their playoff lives and desperately need a win when they host Washington on Sunday. It won’t be easy without RB Maurice Jones-Drew who will not play because of a knee injury. WR Mike Sims-Walker is battling an ankle injury and will not start on Sunday. Sims-Walker is expected to suit up, but might only play half of his normal workload.

******* take:
Luckily for Jacksonville, RB Rashad Jennings is a quality backup and Washington’s defense is horrible, ranking 27th against the run (134 YPG). Jennings has averaged an eye-popping 6.8 yards on his 47 carries this season, scoring three times. If Jennings proves ineffective, QB David Garrard is certainly capable of moving the football on the Redskins’ second-worst pass defense (263 YPG). Although Jacksonville ranks 27th in passing offense (192 YPG), Garrard has five multi-TD games in his past seven contests and is coming off a 294-yard performance at Indianapolis. Sims-Walker (42 rec, 531 yds, 7 TD) is second on the team in targets (77), but he has gained less than 50 receiving yards in 10 of his 12 games this season. Garrard’s top two options on Sunday will be WR Mike Thomas, who leads Jacksonville with 712 receiving yards, and TE Marcedes Lewis, who has a team-high nine touchdown receptions.

In terms of Washington’s offense, QB Rex Grossman played pretty well in replacing Donovan McNabb last week. Despite losing 33-30 at Dallas, Grossman completed 25-of-43 passes for 322 yards and four touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions. The Redskins running game has been marred by injuries all season and currently ranks 28th in the NFL at 94 YPG. Leading rusher Ryan Torain has been battling hamstring problems this year, but he has very productive in two games since returning from a four-game absence. Torain has 225 rushing yards and 58 receiving yards in the two contests.

These teams have only met four times since 1992, with Washington winning three of those games (SU and ATS), including a 36-30 victory in the last meeting in 2006. However, with the Jaguars fighting for a playoff spot and Washington having nothing to play for, look for the Jags to cover at home. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to play against Washington and play on Jacksonville on Sunday.

WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.The average score was WASHINGTON 14.5, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Mike Shanahan is 6-20 ATS (23.1%, -16.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Shanahan 22.0, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also thinks the game will finish Under the Total:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. (31-7 since 1983.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500
Miami - Under 41 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco +2 500
St. Louis - Over 39.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -1.5 500
Chicago - Over 36 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -9 500
Buffalo - Over 45 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +6.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 45.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -4 500
Kansas City - Under 42.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -3.5 500
Cleveland - Under 39.5 500

Indianapolis - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +2 500
Oakland - Over 47.5 500

Houston - 4:05 PM ET Houston -2.5 500 ( AFC POD )
Denver - Over 49.5 500

San Diego - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -9 500
Cincinnati - Under 43 500

Seattle - 4:15 PM ET Tampa Bay -6 500
Tampa Bay - Over 43.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET Green Bay -3 500
Green Bay - Over 43 500

Minnesota - 8:25 PM ET Philadelphia -14 500
Philadelphia - Under 38.5 500

[BillMill71]

Good Luck SDB

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/26/10 14-10-0 58.33% +1500 Detail
12/25/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/19/10 13-10-1 56.52% +1000 Detail
12/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
12/12/10 9-16-1 36.00% -4300 Detail
12/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/05/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1400 Detail
12/02/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 61-57-2 51.69% -850

Monday, December 27Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta -2 500
Atlanta - Under 49.5 500