NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (12/23 - 12/27)

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, December 26

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Tips and Trends
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Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders [CBS | 4:05 PM ET]

COLTS: (-3, O/U 47) Indianapolis has won their past 2 games to get to 8-6 SU, which just happens to be tied for their division lead. The AFC South has been a difficult division this year, arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Besides being 8-6 SU, the Colts are also 7-6-1 ATS this year. Indianapolis is 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Colts have but 1 win ATS as the listed road favorite this year. QB Peyton Manning has thrown for more than 4,250 YDS this season, the most of any QB in the NFL. To no surprise, the Colts average just under 300 YPG passing this season, best in the NFL. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 27.2 PPG, 4th best in the league. This Colts defense continues to give up points, as they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to score at least 24 PTS. The Colts are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 road games. Indianapolis is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU win. The Colts are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games played on grass. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite.

Colts are 8-3 ATS last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games played in December.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) is probable.

Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)

RAIDERS: Oakland is 15 weeks into the NFL season, and they don't have a losing record. Things are looking up for the Raiders, as this is clearly a team on the rise. The Raiders are 7-7 SU and 8-6 ATS overall this season. Oakland is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in home games this season, including 2-1 ATS as the listed home underdog. The Raiders have an elite rushing attack, as they average 157.5 YPG on the ground, 2nd most in the NFL. RB Darren McFadden has rushed for more than 1,100 YDS this season, including 7 TD's. Oakland is averaging 25.2 PPG this year, 9th best in the NFL. Defensively, the Raiders have allowed 4 of their past 5 opponents to score at least 23 PTS. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. Oakland is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games played in December.

Raiders are 5-0 ATS last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - DE Richard Seymour (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27



San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals [4:05 PM ET]

CHARGERS: (-7.5, O/U 43) San Diego needs some help in order to make the playoffs. The Chargers need to win their remaining 2 games, while they hope for Kansas City to lose one of their last two contests. San Diego is 8-6 both SU and ATS this year, as they've had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game. The Chargers are 2-4 SU and ATS on the road this year. San Diego is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or more this season. The Chargers are averaging 27.7 PPG this year, 3rd most in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers has been amazing this year, throwing for more than 4,100 YDS and 29 TD's this year. Rivers is without question a candidate for NFL MVP this year. Defensively, the Chargers are allowing under 260 YPG, the best in the NFL. San Diego will try to make the Bengals as one dimensional as possible tonight. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. San Diego is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as the listed favorite. San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Chargers are 12-4 ATS last 16 games played in December.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as the listed favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (foot) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 23

BENGALS: Only 1 team has a worse record in the entire NFL than Cincinnati. The Bengals are 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS overall this season. Cincinnati is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this year. The Bengals are 2-2 ATS as the listed home underdog this season. QB Carson Palmer has had an up and down season, with 21 TD's against 18 INT's this year. RB Cendric Benson has rushed for more than 1,000 YDS and 7 TD's this year. The Bengals are averaging 20.1 PPG this year, while allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Bengals have been lively on defense over the past 2 weeks, as they've played with passion. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as the listed home underdog. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Bengals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against the AFC. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bengals are 3-8 ATS 11 home games.
Under is 16-5 last 21 games played in December.

Key Injuries - WR Chad OchoCinco (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Spark]

Sorry, Late




***** SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26TH NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Minnesota DEC: 7-1 off div w/rev vs opp off SU win... 6-1 bef Lions (0-1 this year)... 2-7 vs .500 > opp off SU dog win (1-1 this year)... 1-3 UNDER after Bears
--PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 10-1 L11/6-0 L6 H... 8-0 aft RG vs Giants... DEC: 1-8 favs 8 > pts... 2-8 favs > 7 pts off BB SU wins... 1-6 UNDER after Giants

--Seattle SERIES: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4 A... DEC: 8-2 < .500 dogs < 7 pts (0-1 this year)... 15-3 off BB SU losses (2-0 this year)... 1-4 O/U Game Fifteen
--TAMPA BAY 9-0 H off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU losses... 8-0 conf favs 4 > pts off SU fav loss... DEC: 7-1 vs opp off DD SU home loss... 2-6 Game Fifteen... MORRIS: 2-11-1 H

--Baltimore SERIES: 4-1 L5... 3-1 Game Fifteen... 0-7 A off BB SU wins & scored 30 > pts BB... 1-9 RF's off BB SU wins... HARBAUGH: 8-2 off SU win vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)
--CLEVELAND 8-1 w/rev vs .600 > div opp off SU win (1-0 this year)... 12-3 aft Bengals (0-1 this year)... 6-2 dogs 6 < pts bef Steelers (0-1 this year)... DEC: 1-8 < .500 vs .600 > opp off non div... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen

--Indianapolis 7-0 conf RF's < 7 pts off DD SU win (1-0 this year)... 6-1 O/U Game Fifteen
--OAKLAND SERIES: 5-1 L6/3-0 L3 H... 8-0 H off DD SU win w/rev (2-0 this year)... 7-1 w/rev vs opp off BB SU wins (2-0 this year)... DEC: 1-12 dogs off div vs non div opp (0-1 this year)... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen... CABLE: 2-9 off div

--Houston 13-2 2nd BB RG's (1-0 this year)... 0-4 off div RG vs opp off BB SU losses... 0-6 off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss (0-1 this year)... 2-7 favs vs opp w/rev (1-1 this year)... 4-0 O/U Game Fifteen
--DENVER DEC: 8-1 vs opp off DD div ATS loss... 0-3 SU Game Fifteen

--NY Giants 21-6 away off home vs .500 > foe off ATS win w/ rev... 4-1 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-5 UNDER away vs NFC North
--GREEN BAY 14-4 SU Game Fifteen... 3-11 H vs opp w/rev off SU loss (1-2 this year)... MCCARTHY: 8-1 .500 > dog 2nd BB non div

--San Diego SERIES: 7-3 L10/3-0 L3 A... 3-0 Game Fifteen... DEC: 13-3 A off BB SU wins... 2-5 aft allowing 10 < pts vs non div opp (1-0 this year)
--CINCINNATI 0-3 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-8 H vs non div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #107 VIKINGS (5-9) @ #108 EAGLES (10-4) - America is clamoring for more Joe Webb, so NBC flexed out of Charger-Bengal game into this, probably hoping Favre would play, which he won’t. Minnesota lost last two games by combined score of 61-17; over last six games, they’ve been outscored 70-27 in second half, a sign of team in tank. Vikings are 1-5-1 vs. spread as an underdog this year. Eagles are off pair of NFC East wins with Cowboy rematch on deck; they’re 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home fave, with home wins by 14-2-10-10 points. NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread outside the division, 5-8 at home; NFC North underdogs are 11-7-1, 9-5-1 on road. Nine of last ten Eagle games went over total. Given chance to hammer Vikings, Reid probably will, seeing as they fired his buddy Childress.

• #109 REDSKINS (5-9) @ #110 JAGUARS (8-6) - How will host Jags bounce back from another disappointment at hands of Colts, who now win AFC South by beating Raiders/Titans in last two games? Grossman played well enough in Dallas last week (25-43/286), but odd way they’ve shunned McNabb points to fractured team. Inexperienced Beck expected to see some time at QB here, for Skin squad that is in sandwich between rivals Dallas/Giants, and is 4-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-24-3 points (won at Philly/Chicago). Jags are 8-6 despite being favored only four times all year; they’re 5-2 in last seven games, 4-0 vs spread as favorite. Over is 6-2 in Jags’ last eight games, 1-4 in Redskins’ last five. Redskins won three of four series meetings, splitting pair here.

• #111 49ERS (5-9) @ #112 RAMS (6-8) - Niners won last five series games, taking 23-20 OT flagfest (26 accepted penalties) in Candlestick (-6) in Week 10, when Rams couldn’t hold late lead (SF got 1st down after having 3rd-and-32 on game-tying drive). Starting with that game, Rams are 22 for last 85 on 3rd down (25.9%); failure to move chains, improve field position has put too much strain on defense. Rams are 4-3 at home, 2-1 as favorite, but they haven’t scored first half TD in last three games; hopefully return of injured TE Hoomanawanui will help- he was last active in Denver, when they scored 36 points. 49ers are 1-6 in true road games, even losing at 2-14 Carolina. St Louis has thinnest of leads in NFC West; Niners are still alive with win here.

• #113 SEAHAWKS (6-8) @ #114 BUCCANEERS (8-6) - Seattle is still tied for first in NFC West, even though all eight of its losses are by 15+ points; Seahawks are 2-4 as road underdogs this year. Bucs lost three of last four games, with last three decided by total of 8 points- they’re 1-2-2 vs as a favorite. Tampa needs Packers to beat Giants and win here to tie for Wild Card slot; they’re just 3-4 at home, winning by 3-1-15 points. Seattle threw eight INTs in last three games; they’re minus-10 in turnovers last four games. In their last two games, Bucs have no TDs, four FGs on five trips to red zone. Seahawks won four of five visits here; average total in last seven series meetings is 23.7. That said, Seattle’s last seven games this year went over total. NFC West road underdogs are 6-11 outside the division.

• #115 PATRIOTS (10-4) @ #116 BILLS (4-10) - Pats clinch NFC East with win here or Jet loss in Chicago; they’ve won 14 in row vs Buffalo, taking last six here by 14-28-22-46-13-7 points. NE won first meeting this year 38-30 (-14) in Week 3, running ball for 200 yards, but Buffalo averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempts in that game, their 3rd-best mark this year. Bills are 4-2 in last six games after 0-8 start; they’re 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine games overall, outscoring last five foes 68-20 in second half. Patriots scored 31+ points in each of last six games, winning last three on road by 13-21-29 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Last eight New England games went over total; under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games.

• #117 JETS (10-4) @ #118 BEARS (10-4) - Rex Ryan against team his dad helped win Super Bowl 25 years ago; Bears clinched division with win Monday night, but are in scrap with Eagles for #2 seed and first-round bye, which is big- they’ve won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 at home, 0-3 as home favorites. Chicago outscored last three opponents 40-13 in second half. Jets are pretty much locked into Wild Card, but haven’t clinched yet; they’re 6-1 on road, with all seven road games going over total. Chicago is 6-3 in series, 3-2 in games played here. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 10-3. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total, as have last four Chicago games.

• #119 RAVENS (10-4) @ #120 BROWNS (5-9) - Anytime Ravens (formerly Browns) return to Cleveland, there’s venom in air; they beat Cleveland 24-17 (-10.5) in first meeting, despite Browns running ball for 173 yards (2nd-highest total of year), in their 5th straight series loss. Ravens are 7-4 on Lake Erie, winning last two years, 37-27/16-0. Last four Raven games have been very close; they’re 4-3 on road, winning last two away games 37-13/34-28. Last six Cleveland games were all decided by 7 or less points; Browns are 5-6-1 as underdogs, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 2-10-6 points. League-wide, home dogs are 18-12-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 in AFC North. Browns’ last three games all stayed under the total.

• #121 TITANS (6-8) @ #122 CHIEFS (9-5) - Road team won last three series games; Chiefs split only two visits here, with last one back in ’04. Titans snapped 6-game skid last week; they’ve lost last three road games by 8-12-20 points, after starting season 3-0 on road. Chiefs got Cassel back under center last week; they’ve won last four games he played, and are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 7-21-22-3-18-4 points. KC needs to keep winning to stay step ahead of San Diego in AFC West, while Titans technically are still alive in their division; Fisher is using OC Heimerdinger (cancer) as an inspiration of how not to quit. Despite undergoing chemo, Heimerdinger hasn’t missed one day of work since he was diagnosed with cancer.

• #123 COLTS (8-6) @ #124 RAIDERS (7-7) - Oakland is 5-0 in its division, 2-7 outside it; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Texans by 7, Dolphins by 16. Colts scored 35-30-34 points last three weeks, as prolific Manning continues to amaze; after tossing 11 INTs in 3-game stretch, Colts haven’t turned ball over last two weeks, can now win AFC South if they win this game and beat Titans at home next week. Raiders want to pound ball; they’ve run it for 251-153-264 yards in last three games, scoring average of 32.7 ppg. Colts allowed 24+ points in six of seven road games; they’re 3-4 on road, 1-3-1 as road favorite. AFC West underdogs are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-3 at home. AFC South favorites are 9-9-2, 2-1-2 on road. Four of last five Indy games went over the total.

• #125 TEXANS (5-9) @ #126 BRONCOS (3-11) - Both sides sinking here; Texans lost last three games, allowing 33 ppg (gave up 11 TDs on last 30 drives), outscored 65-20 in first half of those games- they’ve lost last five road games. Denver lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), converting just 10 of last 60 on 3rd down; they’re 2-4 at home, but did score 82 points in last two home games. League-wide, home underdogs in non-divisional games are 18-19-3. Six of last seven Texan games went over total, as did three of last four Bronco games. Houston coach Kubiak came to Texans from Broncos, could he be returning as Denver HC if Houston fires him? First home start for Tebow, who did OK in starting debut last week. Not much to choose from on either side, except maybe the over. Check weather.

• #127 GIANTS (9-5) @ #128 PACKERS (9-5) - Huge game with #6 seed in NFC up for grabs; how do Giants bounce back from last week’s debacle, blowing 31-10 lead at home in last 8:00 in pivotal division rivalry game? First series meeting since Giants won NFC title game in OT here three years ago; road team won last five series games-- Giants won last two visits here. Packers lost last two games, both by 4 points; they’re 5-1 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning by 27-2-4-38-18 points (lost to Miami in OT). Giants are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as underdog; all four of their losses are by 7+ points. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total. Does Rodgers come back for Packers, and if so, how effective is he?

• #129 CHARGERS (8-6) @ #130 BENGALS (3-11) - San Diego needs two wins and a KC loss to make playoffs; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 29+ points in wins- they allowed only one TD on last 18 drives with 10 3/outs. Since halftime of loss to Raiders, they’ve outscored opponents 75-14 in last 10 quarters. Bengals snapped 10-game skid last week, running ball for 188 yards, their most this year by 39 yards. Cincy covered in only two of 11 losses this year, even though six of its 11 losses are by 7 or less points- they’re 3-5 as an underdog, 2-1 at home. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 2-3 on road. AFC North underdogs are 8-9-2. 3-2 at home. Last five Charger games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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The Kansas City Chiefs hold a precarious one-game advantage over ‘FAST-CHARGING’ San Diego in the AFC West knowing the Bolts hold the tie-breaker in the event they finish the season with identical records. Hence, look for Arrowhead to become a burial ground the next two weeks. They are 16-7 ATS here during the final four confrontations of the season when hosting opponents off a win. The Titans snapped a 6-game losing skid with its win over the Texans in their Last Home Game last weekend and now take to the road off a three-game homestand.

As our 'AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK’ points out: PLAY AGAINST - Any NFL road team from Game Ten out following three straight home games if they are off a double-digit win and are facing a sub .690 non-division opponent. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 17-3-2 (85%). This is not a good role for teams taking to the highway, especially ones that have been outstatted in six of their previous seven affairs. "Our Rock-Solid database is in a holiday spirit and lends this Christmas gift: Game Fifteen outfits off a SU underdog victory are a 'SENSATIONAL' 34-9 ATS (79.1%) at home since 1980 when seeking revenge!"
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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Colts control their playoff destiny following last weekend’s victory over the Jaguars and a win here today puts them on firm footing. The problem, though, is they’ve dropped four straight tussles in this series (0-3-1 ATS) and they travel as road favorites with the leagues’ 2nd worst rush defense (4.7 DYPR). Not to mention they check in as our 'NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' which tells us to: PLAY ON - Any NFL Game Fifteen Home underdog of 4 or less points off a win in its Last Home Game of the season. ATS W-L Record 18-4-1, (81.8%) Since 1980.

That’s clearly a flag-raiser considering the Raiders own the NFL’s best ground attack (4.9 OYPR). Coupled with Oakland’s 7-1 ATS mark as a home underdog with revenge, and its 9-2 ATS record at home with revenge off a double-digit win, it makes for a precarious situation, to say the least. "So does Peyton’s 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS career mark as a road favorite with a winning record against AFC West opposition!"
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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Who would have believed that Tampa would own a winning record playing in the competitive NFC South while the Seahawks would be below sea level in the laughable NFC West! What we’re really not sure of, though, is which Seattle or Tampa outfit will show up this afternoon in the Big Sombrero. Thus, we’ll turn to our Stat/Systems Sports database for some answers and it clearly has us heading west. For starters, the Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS on this field. Seattle is also at its best on the road off a loss this year, posting a 2-0 SU and ATS record. The coffee crew is also an 'INCREDIBLE' 15-5 SU and 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) off back-to-back losses versus a foe off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Bucs are just 1-8 SU and ATS in Last Home Games since 2001. And like the aforementioned 'Tuff Tony Sparano (above), it’s best to back the visitor this time of year in scuffles involving Tampa HC Raheem Morris. "Under Morris, the host in Buccaneers’ encounters is 0-5-1 ATS in the final quarter of the season!"
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Don’t look now but the (5-9) 49ers are just two victories and a Seattle loss this weekend from claiming the NFC West title. With Jacksonville, San Diego, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the Giants fighting for their playoff lives at 8-6 or better, it just doesn’t seem fair. (Maybe it’s time to get the BCS involved!) One person who will be heavily involved in today’s outcome is San Fran HC Mike Singletary and we’ll draw on Iron Mike’s 10-4-2 ATS log as an underdog, including 6-0-1 ATS off a loss. It’s also hard to look past Frisco’s 'AMAZING’ 8-0 ATS mark as a division road dog of 9 or less points. One number that won’t get by us here this afternoon is Louie’s 'BRUTAL' 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS record in the final four confrontations of the season since 2006, or its 3-14 ATS log as division favorites since 2003. "Slinging Sam Bradford and his baby-faced assassins have certainly been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2010 season but their 3-16 SU and ATS mark at home off a double-digit loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS versus a division opponent, suggests they’re a year away!"
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*** DETROIT @ MIAMI (-3.5, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: You get the feeling that Detroit’s enjoying Florida more than the Dolphins. A week ago, the Lions upset the Bucs in Tampa, snapping a 26-game road losing streak. Meanwhile, the Dolphins dropped a home game to the Bills to drop to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS at home this year. Miami continues to struggle on offense, while kicker Dan Carpenter went 0-for-4 (granted, they were all 48 and beyond) on field goal attempts. The Lions have looked just fine under third-string quarterback Drew Stanton. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Miami is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. Detroit (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.
--MIAMI is 13-27 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.

--DETROIT is 4-15 ATS away off a upset win as an underdog since 1992.
--DETROIT is 5-17 ATS away after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
--DETROIT is 6-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road this season.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(32-10 since 1983.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA (-14.5, O/U 41.5 ) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Eagles carry some momentum from their superb second half against the Giants, and they can put away the NFC East with a victory against a Vikings team that’s limping to the finish line. There’s no telling whether Brett Favre or Joe Webb (or Patrick Ramsey) will be under center for the Vikes. Whoever it is will have their hands full against the blitz happy Eagles. Philly’s speedy receiving corps also matches up particularly well against Minnesota’s cornerbacks. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 2-0 ATS (2-0 SU) vs. Minnesota (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILA is 8-0 ATS after road game where both teams scored 24+ points over L3 seasons.
--PHILA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILA is 13-2 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

--MINNESOTA is 13-2 OVER away vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-7 OVER away vs. teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 22-8 OVER vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Any team vs the 1rst half line - after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points.
(40-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE (-7, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Rex Grossman Experience is likely to continue in Jacksonville, a second straight soft pass defense for the maligned vet (he threw for 322 yards and 4 TDs, as well as 2 INTs, in Dallas last week). After all sorts of problems at home last season, the Jags are 5-2 SU and ATS at EverBank Field, including three straight wins. They have the offensive diversity to beat a weak Redskins defense that could be without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo. Series History - Last 5 seasons: Jacksonville is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Washington (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 44-21 OVER after having won 4 or 5 out of last 6 games since 1992.

--WASHINGTON is 32-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 55-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS after gaining 75 or less rush yards last game over L3 seasons.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 39) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Amazingly, this game could decide who gets a home playoff game. The Niners and Rams looked like teams with losing records last week, each getting pasted by an AFC West team. They went to overtime in their first meeting, a seesaw battle in San Fran where the Niners outgained the Rams by nearly 100 yards. San Francisco is unsettled under quarterback yet again, as Mike Singletary is unlikely to announce a starter between Alex and Troy Smith until late in the week. San Fran is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. Series History - Last 5 seasons: ST Louis is 3-8 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. San Francisco (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--ST LOUIS is 1-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 8-26 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.

--SAN FRAN is 9-1 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 6-0 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road teams - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
________________________________________________

*** SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY (-6, O/U 43.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams are still in the playoff hunt. Tampa has been the superior team this year, but they’re coming off a bad home loss to Detroit and have been up and down at home all season. They’re just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at home. Seattle is as bad as ever of late, and now they’re undecided at QB after another horrible performance by Matt Hasselbeck. They do match up well defensively with Tampa, as Brandon Mebane and Colin Cole anchor a strong run D. Seattle is 3-12 SU and ATS on the road over the past two years. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) vs. Seattle (0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS in home lined games over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 1-10 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS at home in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.

--SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
________________________________________________

*** NEW ENGLAND (-7.5, O/U 44) @ BUFFALO ***
----------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Patriots got a bit of a wake up call last week against the shorthanded Packers, just in time for another trap game in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t beaten New England since Week 1 of the 2003 season, but they’ve managed to go 2-0-1 ATS in their past three games against the Pats. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be able to take advantage of a young Patriots defense that hasn’t completely gelled. The Bills also have a decent enough secondary to at least hang on against Tom Brady and Company. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Buffalo is 4-6 ATS (0-11 SU) vs. New England (0-4 ATS, 0-5 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--BUFFALO is 29-8 ATS after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-2 OVER at home vs. teams w/ TO margin of +1/game or better since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 15-4 OVER after covering the spread in 4 out of last 5 games since 1992.

--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER off 1 or more straight overs this season.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after gaining 6+ yds/play in their previous game this year.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after having won 5 or 6 out of last 7 games this season.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
________________________________________________

*** NY JETS @ CHICAGO (-1, O/U 36.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jets are looking to make it two straight on the road over winning teams. Gang Green recovered a little bit of momentum thanks to their special teams last week. Brad Smith opened the game with a kickoff return touchdown, though the Jets offense has scored just one offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving. The Bears don’t have the kind of offense to take on the Jets defense. They’ve scored just 45 points in three games against AFC East opponents this year. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Chicago is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. NY Jets (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 16-4 UNDER vs. teams averaging 24+ yds/KO return in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 47-28 UNDER in non-conference games since 1992.
--Lovie Smith is 10-3 ATS vs. teams averaging 32+ possession min/gm as coach of CHICAGO.

--NY JETS are 8-1 ATS away in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.
--NY JETS are 6-0 OVER away vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this year.
--NY JETS are 54-32 UNDER after failing to cover in 2 out of last 3 games since 1992.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%),in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 4*)
__________________________________________________

*** BALTIMORE (-3, O/U 39) @ CLEVELAND ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The latest installment of the Modell Bowl will feature the Ravens as favorites again. Baltimore has won the past five match-ups with the Browns, but their September meeting in Cleveland was an adventure. The game was the coming out party for Peyton Hillis, and the Ravens just held on for a 24-17 win. They won’t be taken by surprise by Hillis this time, and Cleveland doesn’t have the perimeter threats to take advantage of Baltimore’s thin secondary (of Colt McCoy’s 243 yards in Cincinnati last week, only 99 went to WRs). Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 6-5 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Baltimore (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 52-33 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 8-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 out of last 4 games over L3 seasons.
--Eric Mangini is 14-4 UNDER in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

--BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS when playing team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 26-13 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 40-24 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
________________________________________________

*** TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY (-4.5, O/U 42.5) ***
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams seem to be getting back on track. The Titans snapped a six-game losing streak against Houston, and have won two in a row ATS. They’ve played much better since Kerry Collins returned to the lineup. The Chiefs got back to business with Matt Cassel back under center in St. Louis, and they return home where they’re 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. Tennessee (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--K.C. is 9-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the L3 seasons.
--K.C. is 32-50 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
--K.C. is 22-10 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.

--TENNESSEE is 13-2 ATS away off a home win against a division rival since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-6 ATS after failing to cover in 5 or 6 out of last 7 games since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-7 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1992.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games.
(52-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)
_________________________________________________

*** INDIANAPOLIS (-3, O/U 47) @ OAKLAND ***
-------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Colts can move closer to clinching the AFC South, but they’re in for a major test in Oakland. The Raiders are 5-2 SU at home this year and have had one of the best pass defenses in the league when Nnamdi Asomugha has been healthy. With the exception of a couple of big Donald Brown runs last week, Indy hasn’t had much of a running game all year. The Colts have also been susceptible against the run, and Oakland has one of the strongest running games in the NFL. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Oakland is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Indianapolis (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--OAKLAND is 29-60 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 6.5+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS at home after gaining 7+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.

--INDY is 9-1 ATS vs. teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-3 ATS away after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 16-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
(23-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
_________________________________________________

*** HOUSTON (-3, O/U 48.5) @ DENVER ***
--------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: It could be a second straight start for Tim Tebow, who impressed with his legs but wasn’t given much of a chance with his arm last week in Oakland. Denver’s defense might not give them much of a chance, as they’ve allowed 82 points in two games under Eric Studesville and are 2-4 SU and ATS at home this year. The Texans looked deflated in losing in Tennessee last week, and now top rusher Arian Foster could miss this game with an ankle injury. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Houston (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--DENVER is 2-16 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 3-19 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 0-9 ATS at home against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.

--HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--HOUSTON is 9-0 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points over the L3 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 6-0 OVER away when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(37-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 4*)
_________________________________________________

*** NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Packers and Giants are feeling much different after Week 15 losses. The Giants choked away a key game against Philly with a couple of major special teams gaffes and a failure in all phases of the game. They have been good on the road this year, winning four of their past five SU and ATS. Green Bay was close with New England with back-up QB Matt Flynn under center (and looking shaky on many throws). There’s a good chance they’ll have Aaron Rodgers back. They’re 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 home games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) vs. NY Giants (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--GREEN BAY is 46-29 ATS vs. teams w/ winning record in 2nd half of season since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS at home vs. teams allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 45-26 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

--NY GIANTS are 19-5 ATS after game where 60+ total points were scored since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS away against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 27-11 ATS away vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
__________________________________________________

*** SAN DIEGO (-7, O/U 44) @ CINCINNATI ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Chargers have a chance to keep rolling when they visit Cincinnati. The Bengals beat Cleveland at home this week, but lost top receiver Terrell Owens to a season-ending knee injury. They’ll be facing a San Diego D that has been outstanding against the run and the pass this year, and has an extra three days of rest. The Chargers have let a few games slip away because of sloppy play and special teams mistakes, but the Bengals are the sloppiest, most undisciplined team in the league. They’re unlikely to catch the Bolts napping. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cincinnati is 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. San Diego (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)

• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 11-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 20-8 OVER at home vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 16-5 OVER vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yds/play in 2nd half of year since 1992.

--SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the L2 seasons.

• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(35-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
_________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________ _________

• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.

Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________

4* WASHINGTON +7 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO +3 - (82.9%)
4* TENNESSEE +4.5 - (82.4%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS -3 - (76.9%)
3* DENVER +3 - (73.9%)

--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-18 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (36.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-18).

--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (ST LOUIS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 since 1983.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).

--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
(28-6 since 1983.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 17, Opponent 19.5 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (44.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).

--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(30-9 since 1983.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average score in these games was: Team 29.8, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +10.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).

--PLAY ON - Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(51-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +31.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 22.5 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (43.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-15).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-44).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (171-155).
____________________________________

• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.

Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________

5* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY UNDER 43.5 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO/ST LOUIS OVER 39 - (82.8%)
4* WASHINGTON/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 46.5 - (81.6%)
4* NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO UNDER 44 - (80.0%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 48.5 - (79.5%)
3* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 44 - (78.6%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS/OAKLAND UNDER 47 - (78.0%)

--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off 2 consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 5*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 39.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 39
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 23.8 (Total points scored = 46.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-40).

--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
(31-7 since 1983.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 44.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.1, Opponent 17.6 (Total points scored = 39.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (45.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).

--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog.
(32-8 since 1983.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.5
The average score in these games was: Team 19.7, Opponent 18.7 (Total points scored = 38.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).

--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (HOUSTON) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 43.2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.2 (Total points scored = 50.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (53.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-39).

--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.2
The average score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 26.9 (Total points scored = 55.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).

--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - excellent rushing team (>=150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.
(32-9 since 1983.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 42.6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 18 (Total points scored = 37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (44.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3

[Spark]

• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.

Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________

4* DENVER +1.5 - (83.9%)
4* KANSAS CITY -2.5 - (80.6%)
3* NEW ENGLAND -4 - (78.7%)
3* TAMPA BAY -3 - (78.6%)
3* ST LOUIS -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* GREEN BAY -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* JACKSONVILLE -3.5 - (74.3%)

--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-50).

--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.7, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).

--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (BUFFALO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a upset win as an underdog.
(37-10 since 1983.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - off 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 5.6 (Average first half point differential = +8.4)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).

--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (<=18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.2, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-10 since 1983.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.1, Opponent 5.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).

--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (JACKSONVILLE) - good rushing team (>=4.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR) after 8+ games.
(55-19 since 1983.) (74.3%, +34.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 7.9 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-12).
_____________________________________________

• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.

Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________

4* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 22 - (88.9%)
4* SEATTLE/TAMPA BAY OVER 22 - (85.7%)
4* TENNESSEE/KANSAS CITY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 24.5 - (85.7%)
4* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
3* NY JETS/CHICAGO OVER 18.5 - (78.1%)
3* BALTIMORE/CLEVELAND OVER 19.5 - (72.5%)

--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 21
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TENNESSEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).

[Spark]

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).

--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - off 3 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG).
(25-7 since 1983.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).

--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(50-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 12.2 (Total first half points scored = 26.3)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-62).

[Udog]

NFL


Monday, December 27

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Saints at Falcons: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2, 49)

CURRENT ODDS

The Falcons opened as 2-point home favorites and the line has since risen to -2.5 in most locations as 53 percent of the public is supporting Atlanta according to the *********** consensus.

The total opened at 47.5 total points and has since risen to 49 points as 75 percent of the public favors the over according to the *********** consensus. The weather will not be an issue since this game is being played inside the Georgia Dome.

INJURY REPORT

These two teams enter with a combined 22-6 SU record this season because both have been able to stay healthy. Atlanta will have all of its key players ready for Monday night, while New Orleans will also have the majority of its lineup.

New Orleans’ defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove (knee) and cornerback Jabari Greer (knee) are both probable, along with wide receivers Courtney Roby (head) and Robert Meachem (toe). Running back Christopher Ivory (hamstring) is questionable, while tight end David Thomas (knee) is doubtful.

BREESY TIME

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has been one of the best in the NFL since signing with the Saints back in 2006. He’s had monster games against just about every team in the league, but he has had a collection of big-time performances against the Falcons, a team the Saints play twice a year in the NFC South.

In his nine career starts against the Falcons as a Saint, Brees has averaged 301 passing yards per game and he has thrown at least two touchdown passes eight times. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards five times, including a 365-yard, three-touchdown performance in the Falcons' 27-24 overtime victory in New Orleans back on September 26th.

”They do a great job and Drew is as good as any quarterback in the league in terms of pre-snap reads to identify what you’re trying to do,” Atlanta head coach Mike Smith said. “It’s going to be important for us as a team to make sure that we can get some pre-snap tips on what they’re trying to do as well.”

RODDY & TWITTER

Atlanta wide receiver Roddy White took to Twitter to wage battle with former NFL quarterback and current ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer. On an NFL segment on ESPN, Dilfer compared the Falcons to the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs who went 13-3 and then lost in the first-round of the playoffs.

Dilfer said the Falcons “are not indestructible” at home and he went on to say the Saints could win Monday night’s game and then come back and beat the Falcons again in the playoffs in the Georgia Dome.

Roddy White fired back on Twitter: “No chance in hell the ‘Aints come into the dome and win once Trent Dilfer.” He followed that up with this. “The ‘Aints fans are so rude… we shall see Monday night.” And then this: “Y’all [New Orleans] fans keep talking making it worst for those guys that got to guard me cause y’all don’t. LOL”

Numerous Saints players responded to his tweets, but the best was this from Reggie Bush who said: “Wondering how @roddywhitetv has the audacity to call us ‘AINTS.” And he attached a photo of the Saints’ Super Bowl ring from last year.

PERFECT PAIR

Since head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees have worked together, they’ve put-up some incredible offensive numbers.

The duo started together in New Orleans back in 2006, and since then, they’ve won 48 games while amassing over 22,000 passing yards. They reached the pinnacle last year when the Saints beat the Colts in the Super Bowl.

Payton has always been a master play caller from his days under Bill Parcells with the Giants and Cowboys. He is phenomenal at structuring a game plan and then being aggressive once the game gets underway.

And Payton’s ability to keep defenses off balance hasn’t gone unnoticed, especially by Atlanta head coach Mike Smith.

”Head coach Sean Payton is one of the most innovative offensive coaches in terms of how he packages his game plan together,” Smith said. “He forces you to use a lot of brain power, especially in the first 15 to 20 plays with the personnel groupings, and it’s very high tempo. It’s going to be a big challenge for our team.”

TRENDS

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Saints and the over is 5-1 in these two clubs’ last six meetings.

The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with winning records.

The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.

The under is 8-1 in the Saints’ last eight games against NFC South opponents.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL


Monday, December 27

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Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

SAINTS: New Orleans is 10-4 SU and 6-8 ATS this season, as they are competing for a playoff berth. The Saints have already lost to the Falcons once this year, so there is plenty of revenge at stake here tonight. New Orleans had won 6 consecutive games before losing last week in Baltimore. The Saints are 5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS in road games this season. New Orleans will be playing just their 2nd game of the season as the listed underdog tonight, with last week's game being the 1st. QB Drew Brees has thrown for more than 4,100 YDS and 31 TD's this year. Brees has thrown TD passes to 9 different receivers this season. The Saints are averaging 25.3 PPG this year, 7th best in the NFL. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 19.3 PPG, 9th best in the league. The Saints are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games played on fieldturf. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Saints are 1-7 ATS last 8 games played in December.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

FALCONS: (-2, O/U 47.5) No team in football has a better record than the Atlanta. The Falcons are 12-2 SU this season, tied with New England for the best record in the NFL. While the Patriots get all the credit, Atlanta keeps flying under the radar. Perhaps that's why this Falcons team is also 10-4 ATS this year, one of the most profitable teams in the league this season. Atlanta is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this year. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS as the listed favorite of less than a TD this year. QB Matt Ryan is the unquestioned leader of this Falcons team, as he's thrown for more than 3,300 YDS and 25 TD's this year. RB Michael Turner has rushed for more than 1,250 YDS and 11 TD's this season. WR Roddy White has nearly 1,300 receiving YDS and 8 TD's this year to cap off an offensive trio of stars. The Falcons are allowing 18.6 PPG this year, tied for 6th best in the NFL. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite up to a field goal. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on fieldturf. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.

Falcons are 6-0 ATS last 6 games following a SU win.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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[Spark]

••• OK SHOOTOUT! •••
------------------------------
Dallas Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle will not be on the bench when his club visits Oklahoma City following minor knee surgery. Dwane Casey will take care of practice and act as head coach for the game. The Mavs have won four straight after dropping a game to the Bucks earlier this month. Dallas beat the Thunder, 111-103, in this building a month ago so you can expect Kevin Durant to come in hungry like a wolf tonight.

Despite the earlier loss, the Thunder have owned the series of late, posting an 8-2 ATS log, including a perfect 6-0 ATS with same-season revenge. In fact, the Thunder have been money in the bank when playing with same-season revenge under second-year HC Scott Brooks, logging a brilliant 18-5-1 ATS mark since the middle of last season. With Dallas eyeing a revenger with Toronto the following night, and for some unknown reason a curious 3-15-1 ATS before meeting the Raptors expect a New Moon on Monday!

Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!

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NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
________________________________

*** MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***

NEW ORLEANS (10-4) @ ATLANTA (12-2)
Georgia Dome Atlanta, Georgia
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: Falcons -2.5 O/U 49
---------------------------------------------------------------------
After just completing their longest road trip of the season, the Atlanta Falcons are in position to avoid having to make any more treks for quite some time. The NFC's current front-runners return to the Georgia Dome this week attempting to wrap up a division title and the No. 1 overall seed for the upcoming conference playoffs. Atlanta has won 15 straight times at the Georgia Dome in which Ryan has started, and the standout signal-caller is a stellar 19-1 at home over his three-year career. Standing in the Falcons' way will be the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints, who'll be aiming to nail down their own invitation to the postseason when the two NFC South powers collide in a very intriguing Monday night matchup.

Atlanta has already secured a postseason spot and needs to win just one of its two remaining regular-season tests to gain home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. With 2-13 Carolina set to visit the Georgia Dome next week, that prospect appears to be a near certainty. The Falcons have been dominant at home all throughout the three-year tenure of head coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan, prevailing in 19 of their 22 games at the Georgia Dome over that successful stretch. Two of those losses came when Ryan was unavailable last season due to a sprained big toe.

Atlanta has more than held its own in enemy venues as well over a current sequence of eight consecutive victories that's given the high-flying club a two-game bulge on its closest NFC competition, including the fellow division member Saints. The Falcons' last three triumphs have all come on the road, the most recent a 34-18 ousting of Seattle last week in which Ryan threw for three touchdowns. The Falcons' eight-game surge is their longest win streak since ripping off nine straight victories to close out the regular season in 1998, the same year the franchise made its only Super Bowl appearance to date.

New Orleans had been on a highly-impressive tear of its own until stumbling in Baltimore last weekend, with the Ravens putting an end to the Saints' string of six wins in a row by earning a 30-24 decision. Baltimore was able to come out on top by gashing the Saints for 208 rushing yards, a similar formula the Falcons used to knock off New Orleans at the Superdome in a 27-24 overtime thriller back in Week 3. Atlanta amassed 202 yards on the ground in that contest, with bruising back Michael Turner accounting for 114 of those yards along with a touchdown on 30 attempts.

The setback to the Ravens has made the Saints' goal of capturing a second consecutive NFC South title unlikely, as Atlanta will have to lose to the lowly Panthers in addition to Monday's clash. New Orleans can still clinch a Wild Card berth, however, by winning either this week or its finale at home against Tampa Bay. The Saints did hand the Falcons their last home defeat by registering a 26-23 verdict during December of last year, though Ryan sat out that game with his toe injury and Turner also didn't play because of a sprained ankle.

• SERIES HISTORY
---------------------
Atlanta leads the all-time regular-season series with New Orleans by a 45-37 count and snapped a string of three straight defeats to the Saints with the above-mentioned overtime win at the Superdome in Week 3. The Falcons had lost seven times in an eight-game span against New Orleans, including the previously-noted 26-23 setback at the Georgia Dome with Ryan sidelined during Week 14 of last season, prior to September's result, and will be seeking their first home-and-home sweep of the Saints since 2005 on Monday. New Orleans is 3-1 in its last four visits to Atlanta. The longtime division foes have also faced off once in the postseason, with Atlanta posting a 27-20 decision at the Superdome in a 1991 NFC First Round Playoff. Saints head coach Sean Payton is 7-2 against the Falcons over his career, while Smith is 2-3 against both Payton and the Saints as a head man.

• WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------
Though not the juggernaut it was during last year's Super Bowl run, the New Orleans offense is still a dangerous outfit that's compiled the sixth-most total yards in the NFL (377.6 ypg) and had put up 30 points or more in six straight games prior to last week's loss to the Ravens. As usual, most of the damage has come through the air, with quarterback Drew Brees (4122 passing yards, 31 TD, 19 INT) eclipsing the 4,000-yard mark in passing yards for a fifth consecutive year following a 267-yard, three-touchdown performance against Baltimore. The All-Pro triggerman is tied for the league lead in scoring strikes and skillfully directs a diverse vertical attack that contains a wealth of quality targets to throw to. Big-bodied wideout Marques Colston (82 receptions, 1002 yards, 7 TD) is the best of the bunch, while fellow receivers Lance Moore (56 receptions, 8 TD), Devery Henderson (31 receptions, 1 TD) and Robert Meachem (33 receptions, 5 TD) have all made significant contributions and promising rookie tight end Jimmy Graham (25 receptions, 3 TD) had a pair of touchdown grabs last week.

Moore was a huge factor in the earlier meeting with the Falcons, racking up a career-best 149 receiving yards and two scores on six catches. The running game was non-existent against Baltimore, however, with the Saints mustering a season-low 27 yards on the ground on 14 attempts. The team was without leading rusher Chris Ivory (683 passing yards, 5 TD) due to a hamstring strain, however, and New Orleans is hopeful the rookie can make it back and add to a deep backfield that also possesses two versatile playmakers in Pierre Thomas (206 rushing yards, 1 TD, 22 receptions) and Reggie Bush (80 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 1 TD).

Brees was able to torch a strong Atlanta secondary for 365 yards and three scores back in Week 3, so it'll be up to the pass-rushing tandem of ends John Abraham (35 tackles, 12 sacks) and Kroy Biermann (32 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) to apply the heat to the New Orleans field general and prevent a repeat. Cornerback Brent Grimes (74 tackles, 5 INT, 22 PD) and free safety Thomas DeCoud (61 tackles, 1 INT) did come up with interceptions of Brees that day, however, and the Falcons are tied for third in the NFL with 19 picks on the season. Teams haven't tested Atlanta that much on the ground this year, mostly because they've often been playing from behind, but the linebacker corps does field a pair of solid stoppers in middle man Curtis Lofton (107 tackles, 2 sacks) and 12th-year vet Mike Peterson (54 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) on the weakside. The combo of Grimes and offseason acquisition Dunta Robinson (44 tackles) stands among the best duos in the NFC.

• WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------------
Atlanta ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yards (122.6 ypg) and was able to run the ball at will against New Orleans back in September, with the powerful Turner (1256 rushing yards, 11 TD, 12 receptions) and capable understudy Jason Snelling (306 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 5 total TD) teaming up for 176 yards on 44 carries as the Falcons held the football for nearly 46 of the game's 73 minutes. That may not necessarily be the game plan on Monday, though, not when the offense also sports a top-tier quarterback in Ryan (3321 passing yards, 25 TD, 9 INT) as well as the league's leading receiver in game-changer Roddy White (106 receptions, 1284 yards, 8 TD).

The Saints will also need to pay close attention to veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez (62 receptions, 5 TD), who delivered a season-high 110 yards and a touchdown on eight catches in the Week 3 win, and Atlanta played that game without steady second receiver Michael Jenkins (31 receptions, 2 TD) because of an early-season shoulder injury. Ryan has been terrific at home this year, having completed 68 percent of his throws with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions in six Georgia Dome starts, and his poise and intelligence are a big reason why the Falcons are second in the league with a 48.4 percent rate on third downs.

New Orleans will need to shore things up defensively after being pushed around at the point of attack by the physical Ravens last week, and that may involve placing hard-hitting strong safety Roman Harper (88 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) closer to the line of scrimmage to help linebackers Jonathan Vilma (99 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Danny Clark (55 tackles) keep Turner in check. A secondary that's yielded a league-low 10 touchdown passes and 195 yards per game through the air (4th overall) is plenty good enough to stay with the Atlanta receivers, which enables aggressive coordinator Gregg Williams to dial up an array of blitzes that have often kept enemy quarterbacks off their game. Vilma and Harper rank in the team's top four in sacks, a category led by third-year tackle Sedrick Ellis (40 tackles, 6 sacks), while cornerbacks Jabari Greer (54 tackles, 2 INT, 11 PD) and Tracy Porter (48 tackles, 1 INT) are both adept at press coverage. Vilma and weakside linebacker Scott Shanle (66 tackles) were each active in these teams' initial matchup, with the two credited with 11 tackles apiece.

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
--New Orleans PAYTON: 7-1 dog w/rev vs .500 > opp... 5-1 O/U Monday
--ATLANTA SERIES: 4-1 L5... 4-1 Game Fifteen... 0-4 SU Monday

The defending Super Bowl champions are wandering on the Wild Card path to the playoffs now that the high-flying Falcons have clinched the NFC South. And while the Saints might not be traveling on Route 666, they are on one of its arteries. That’s because .666 or greater division road dogs from Game 13 out are 10-2 ATS when facing a .666 greater foe off a win of 12 or more points. Yes, we’re aware of Matt Ryan’s 19-1 SU mark at home in NFL career starts, but the fact remains the Dirty Birds are 1-10 ATS at home in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

______________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 18.7, OPPONENT 28.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 19.5, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.7, OPPONENT 21.4 - (Rating = 4*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 34.6, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 32-11 OVER (+19.9 Units) vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 22.7, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 63-41 OVER (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.2, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.0, OPPONENT 27.7 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 11-25 against the 1rst half line (-16.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.8, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--ATLANTA is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 15.6, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 46-70 against the 1rst half line (-31.0 Units) in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.1, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 5*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.3, OPPONENT 10.0 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 57-36 OVER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 11.1, OPPONENT 13.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 15.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.4, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(41-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 13.4 (Total first half points scored = 27.9)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-29).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-50).

--PLAY ON - Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (23-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average score in these games was: Team 22.7, Opponent 18.5 (Average point differential = +4.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (93-79).
__________________________________

[Udog]

NFL


Tuesday, December 28

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Tuesday Night Football: Vikings at Eagles
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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 41)

A nasty snow storm hit the East Coast Sunday, forcing the NFL powers to postpone Sunday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings (5-9, 4-10 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-4, 7-7 ATS) to Tuesday.

Those extra days off may be enough to get Vikings veteran quarterback Brett Favre back on the field. Favre suffered a concussion last Monday against the Chicago Bears after making a surprise return under center despite an injured shoulder.

The Eagles clinched the NFC East title with the New York Giants' loss Sunday but have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they continue to win.

Odds

With the postponement of Sunday night's contest, sportsbook took this game of the board. However, once the odds were back up, action came in on the Vikings, dropping the two-touchdown spread to 13.5. The total has also moved drastically, going from an opening post of 38 points to as high as 41 - a half a point below the original number this week.

Bye bye Brett?

Last week, Favre benefited from the collapse of the Minnesota Metrodome, getting an extra day to nurse his tender shoulder. This week, Mother Nature has bought the aging gunslinger two extra days to recover from a mild concussion.

Favre’s status for Tuesday night is doubtful, however, football fans know that the injury report doesn’t apply to No. 4.

"No 'out' with Brett Favre," Minnesota interim coach Leslie Frazier told reporters with a grin this week. "Will not use that term."

Favre had yet to pass a concussion test as of Thursday and could sit out Week 16, allowing rookie Joe Webb to make his first career start.

That figures to be a daunting task against Vick and the Eagles, who made a comeback of historic proportions in a shocking 38-31 victory over the New York Giants last week.

Action Jackson

Philadelphia trailed by 21 points with 8:17 before Vick spurred a furious rally in which Philadelphia scored 28 consecutive points, capping the miraculous comeback on DeSean Jackson's 65-yard punt return on the game's final play.

Vick made a thunderous statement as to his MVP credentials by throwing for a pair of touchdown passes and running for a score in the final 7 1/2 minutes.

That set up Jackson's dramatic return, which was the first game-winning punt return for a touchdown in NFL annals.

For the game, Vick threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns and also rushed for 130 yards and a score as Philadelphia took sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Vick became just the third player to throw for three touchdowns and run for more than 100 yards in a game.

For the season, Vick has thrown for 2,755 yards with 20 touchdowns against five interceptions. He also has rushed for 613 yards and eight scores despite opening the season as a backup and missing three games to injury.

Joe vs. the volcano

Vikings backup quarterback Joe Webb finished 15 of 26 for 129 yards and two interceptions in relief of Favre last week. He scored his first NFL touchdown on a 13-yard run.

Whether Webb or Favre lines up under center, the task will be much easier if star running back Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota’s lineup. Peterson missed last week’s game with a thigh injury but hopes to play Tuesday after practicing on a limited basis Thursday. The extra day rest has Peterson listed as probable against the Eagles.

Peterson is within 151 yards of joining Earl Campbell as the only NFL running backs to rush for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first four seasons.

Weather

The forecast in Philadelphia is clear skies with a medium wind, blowing of speeds up to 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 20s with the wind chill.

Trends

- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in Eagles last four games overall.
- Over is 12-4 in Vikings last 16 games as a road underdog.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Spark]

••• DELAY OF GAME! •••
--------------------------------
A nasty snow storm hit the East Coast Sunday, forcing the NFL powers to postpone Sunday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles to Tuesday. Those extra days off may be enough to get Vikings veteran quarterback Brett Favre back on the field. Favre suffered a concussion last Monday against the Chicago Bears after making a surprise return under center despite an injured shoulder.

The Eagles clinched the NFC East title with the New York Giants' loss Sunday but have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they continue to win. With the postponement of Sunday night's contest, sportsbooks took this game of the board. However, once the odds were back up, action came in on the Vikings, dropping the two-touchdown spread to 13.5. The total has also moved drastically, going from an opening post of 38 points to as high as 41 - a half a point below the original number this week.

*** TUESDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***

MINNESOTA (5-9) @ PHILADELPHIA (10-4)
Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: Eagles -13.5 O/U 40
----------------------------------------------------------
The emotion of joy probably wouldn't feel so good had it not been for pain. The mental state of Philadelphia Eagles fans was a mix of both when franchise quarterback Donovan McNabb was traded on Easter Sunday. Several pundits had the Eagles tabbed to finish near the bottom of the NFC East when head coach Andy Reid pulled the trigger on the blockbuster deal that sent McNabb to Washington and opened the door for Kevin Kolb to be the team's starting quarterback.

Open doors eventually close, however, and it slammed shut on Kolb. The NFC East-champion Eagles are now Michael Vick's team, and the former incarcerated star has helped give Reid his sixth division title since taking over in 1999. The Eagles locked up the division crown when the Giants lost in Green Bay Sunday. The Eagles will take on the Minnesota Vikings for a rare Tuesday night game at Lincoln Financial Field. The game was supposed to take place on Sunday night, but a snowstorm forced the game to be postponed.

Vick and the Eagles are coming off an improbable road win over the New York Giants, scoring 28 points in less than eight minutes to go in the game for a 38-31 victory. Vick earned NFC Player of the Week honors by accounting for three touchdowns, two of which were through the air, 242 passing yards and 130 yards rushing. The dynamic MVP candidate has captured the conference honor three times this season and understands the ramifications of the game against the Vikings. The Eagles still have a chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs.

"We know the magnitude of this game and what's at stake, and we have to go out and get it," Vick said. "Nothing is going to be given to you; everything has to be earned. We just have to continue to move forward. This is just one stepping stone, with plenty more hurdles to cross." Philadelphia will be searching for its fourth straight win and seventh in eight weeks, and has won 10 or more games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since turning the trick from 2000-2004.

Already assured of their first losing season since the 2006 campaign, the Vikings' role has been relegated to spoiler. Minnesota has dropped two straight, four of six and six of its last nine games, including an embarrassing 40-14 defeat at the hands of the NFC North- rival Chicago Bears on Monday night. Besides having the game relocated to the University of Minnesota's outdoor TCF Bank Stadium after the Metrodome's roof collapsed the previous week following a heavy snowfall, the Vikings got a surprise return of quarterback Brett Favre, who shook off an injured shoulder to make the start.

Favre's heroics were short-lived, however, as he was knocked out of the game in the second quarter after sustaining a concussion on a sack. With backup Tarvaris Jackson already on injured reserve, the Vikings could be forced to turn to rookie Joe Webb for his first NFL start, though completely ruling out Favre is always a quandary. Webb came on in relief of Favre against the Bears and threw for 129 yards with no touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions for the Vikings, who have been outscored by a 61-17 margin in their last two games.

"My stubbornness, hardheadedness and stupidity at times has enabled me to play for 20 years and play the way I've played," the 41-year-old Favre said after the game. "It's just the way I've always approached it, the way I play. I wouldn't trade it for anything." Vikings interim head coach Leslie Frazier has stood by the future Hall of Famer and said things could change if Favre is cleared by the doctors. Under the rules of the NFL, a player who suffers a head injury must undergo post- concussion testing on a daily basis until proving there are no symptoms.

Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson also has to show that he is ready to return from a leg issue after he missed the Chicago game. The NFC's second- leading rusher will not be put at risk if he's unable to go at 100 percent, according to Frazier. Peterson suffered the injury against the Giants on Dec. 13 and is listed as questionable for this game. Rookie Toby Gerhart would handle backfield duties again if the former University of Oklahoma star is unable to go. The Vikings could use their top offensive weapon, since they haven't won in Philadelphia since 1985.

• SERIES HISTORY
---------------------
Minnesota holds an 11-9 edge in its all-time regular-season series with Philadelphia, but the Eagles have won three straight and six of the last seven meetings in the set. The clubs last squared off in a non-playoff setting in 2007, a 23-16 Philadelphia triumph at the Metrodome, and the Vikings were 41-17 losers in their most recent regular-season trip to the City of Brotherly Love, which took place at Veterans Stadium in 2001.

The last matchup between the teams occurred in the 2008 NFC Wild Card Playoffs, with the Eagles besting the North Division-champion Vikings by a 26-14 count. Philadelphia also prevailed in two other postseason bouts against Minnesota, scoring a 31-16 win at home in a 1980 Divisional Playoff and a 27-14 verdict at Lincoln Financial Field in the 2004 Divisional Round.

Counting the postseason, the Vikings have lost six consecutive times in Philadelphia since a 28-23 victory on Dec. 1, 1985. Minnesota's last win of any kind over the Eagles was a 28-19 home decision on Sept, 28, 1997. Reid has never lost in five lifetime encounters with Minnesota. Frazier, who served four seasons under Reid as the Eagles' defensive backs coach from 1999-2002, will be opposing both his former boss and one-time employers for the first time as a head coach.

• WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
----------------------------------------------
It seems the Vikings will most likely settle with Webb for this road bout, and the rookie out of UAB has appeared in only two games this season. Webb (137 passing yards, 2 INT) first saw action in Week 14 setback to the Giants and completed 2-of-5 passes for eight yards. He then played an extended amount of time Monday night in frigid conditions, passing for 129 yards and completing 15 of his 26 attempts with two interceptions. Webb's also rushed for 54 yards this season and compiled 38 yards and a score on six scrambles last week. Recently-signed quarterback Patrick Ramsey is expected to back up Webb for the rest of the season if Favre is unable to play in either of the final two games.

It's been a tumultuous season for the Vikings, who have also been ravaged by injuries to key players such as wide receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, Favre and now Peterson. The in-season firing of head coach Brad Childress may have soothed some of the players' minds, but it still represents turmoil within an organization, especially for a team is coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2009. Gerhart (304 rushing yards, 1 TD) led the ground attack with 77 yards on 16 carries against the Bears, while Peterson (1,149 rushing yards, 11 TD) needs 151 yards to join Earl Campbell as the only players to rush for 1,300-plus yards and 10 touchdowns in each of their first four NFL seasons.

Philadelphia has been able to handle the run lately and will still prepare for Peterson, since his true status is unknown. Gerhart is a beast of a man much like the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, but the Eagles limited New York's power back to 34 yards on 12 carries. Eagles rookie middle linebacker Jamar Chaney (35 tackles) made his first NFL start at the New Meadowlands Stadium last week and finished with a game-best 16 tackles and a forced fumble. Chaney did a fine job calling the signals in place of injured starter Stewart Bradley, who's unlikely to return with a dislocated elbow.

Speaking of not returning, Eagles rookie and starting safety Nate Allen (48 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INT) is done for the year after suffering a knee injury on Sunday. He already underwent successful surgery to repair his ruptured right patella tendon, but has been placed on injured reserve. Fellow rookie Kurt Coleman (29 tackles, 1 INT) has some big shoes to fill and will take over Allen's spot. Coleman had four tackles and a pass defended against the Giants, but has to be wary of Vikings all-purpose receiver Harvin. Cornerback Asante Samuel (25 tackles) owns seven interceptions this season and returned from a three-game absence due to a knee injury last week, posting two tackles. The Eagles have forced a total of 11 turnovers in their last four victories.

• WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------------------
Philadelphia's explosive offense is one of the best in the NFL this season and has scored at least 26 points in each of the past seven games, averaging 34.3 points per contest over that stretch. The Eagles have been able to turn it on down the stretch, right about the time Vick took over for good under center. They averaged 372.6 yards per game over the first seven contests of the season, but have posted 435.3 yards per week in the last seven. Philadelphia has been able to rally from fourth-quarter deficits four times since mid-November and has outscored the opposition by a 66-21 count in the final stanza in that time. Vick (2.755 passing yards, 20 TD, 5 INT) is a main reason for that, as he's accounted for nine touchdown passes and three rushing scores in his last four games.

The left-hander out of Virginia Tech, who owns eight rushing scores in 2010, has thrown for two or more touchdown passes in a game seven times this season and is the NFC's top passer with a 103.6 rating. Philly's receiving corps is led by DeSean Jackson (45 receptions, 1,024 yards, 6 TD) and Jeremy Maclin (64 receptions, 890 yards, 10 TD). Jackson was the hero in the miracle win over New York with a game-ending punt return for a score and is a home-run threat nearly every play. Maclin had two touchdown catches last week. Running back LeSean McCoy (1,036 rushing yards, 7 TD) leads the Eagles with 74 catches and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry as well. McCoy hasn't scored in the last two games, however.

The Vikings have given up 61 points in their last two games and are in for a long evening if they fail to stop Philadelphia's potent offense. They have to be prepared for Vick, who can kill defenses with both his legs and cannon of an arm. Minnesota will most likely drop some players back in coverage and make sure Vick has no running lanes around the ends. End Jared Allen (52 tackles, 10 sacks) will be up for the challenge and has 8 1/2 sacks in his last seven games. Ray Edwards (28 tackles, 7 sacks) plays on the opposite side of Allen and returned from injury to post a sack against the Bears.

Minnesota is eighth in rushing yards allowed this season (101.5 ypg) and still has veteran tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams plugging the lanes. The two mammoth defenders could easily make it difficult for Vick and McCoy to find running room inside, though Bears running back Matt Forte posted 92 yards on 17 carries in Monday's win. The Vikings played tough pass defense that game and held Jay Cutler to 194 yards, but he also had three touchdown strikes to go along with an interception. Cornerback Asher Allen (50 tackles, 2 INT) has posted his first two picks of the season in each of the last two games for Minnesota's 10th-rated pass defense. Safety Madieu Williams (75 tackles, 1 INT) suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
While the Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, it’s not the flat spot that one would expect. Philly is 13-2-1 ATS at home after battling the Giants and 12-2 ATS in non-division games before dealing with the Cowboys. WTF, you say! Well our Stat/Systems Sports database offers this little piece of advice: Game Fifteen road teams with a season-ending road game on deck are 20-5 ATS when playing off back-to-back SU losses. We also dug a little deeper and found that the Eagles are just 2-8 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points off back-to-back wins while HC Andy Reid is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 8 or more points in the final quarter of the season.

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.3, OPPONENT 19.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.4, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 4*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13.0, OPPONENT 27.3 - (Rating = 4*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 11.8, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 29.8, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 41-23 OVER (+15.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.3, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 26.4, OPPONENT 33.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 50-28 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 12.3, OPPONENT 9.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--PHILADELPHIA is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.9 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.2, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--PHILADELPHIA is 52-32 against the 1rst half line (+16.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.4, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 7.3, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.2, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 12.3 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.7, OPPONENT 9.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 19.9, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 45-24 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 10.7, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 43.3
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.1 (Total points scored = 50.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (55% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-40).

--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 25.1)

The situation's record this season is: (6-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (65-62).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-123).