Announcement

**Udog** · 12-21-2010, 02:14 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Week 16

The NFL has been divided into two very different camps – those who have something to play for this year and those that are already playing for next year.

Those teams that are out of the playoff equation already are the clubs that require extra attention and many of them have made significant changes to their starting rosters, especially at the quarterback position.

Matt Flynn, John Skelton, Joe Webb and Tim Tebow were just a few of the young QBs taking snaps in Week 15 and much of the same is expected this week. This trend can have huge implications on the lines oddsmakers send out.

“If Aaron Rodgers had started [in Week 15] the Pats would have been around a 5 or 6 point-favorite, but with Flynn the line was 14,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino.

“That is one of the extreme cases but there is a significant drop off and that is always reflected in the line. The betting public went against every young starting QB in Week 15.”

That much is understandable, but despite their inexperience, some of these guys can get it done over the short term. In other cases, it's a lot more complicated.

“Flynn, Stanton and McCoy are in a slightly different category here because they are traditional QB prospects, and can fit into the offense playbook without many changes,” says Covers Expert David Malinsky.

“For Webb and Tebow the offenses basically have to be redesigned around their particular talents, which means a lot of players removed. And when bad teams are playing out the schedule, many times they do not have the interest to make those changes, especially on a holiday week, when the players are even more distracted.”

Rodgers’ status will be the biggest factor in this week’s game against the New York Giants. The Packers are still fighting for a playoff spot, but they need to win out to keep playing.

“The line is contingent on Rodgers health,” says Esposito. “With a playoff spot possibly at stake and this being a home game, the Packers with Rodgers would be around a 4-point favorite. In the event he does not play the Giants would be around a 3-point favorite.”

Biggest spread of the week – Panthers at Steelers (-13.5, 37)

This is the largest number on the board by far and Esposito only expects it to go up as the week progresses.

The Panthers haven’t won a game on the road all year long and the Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens at the top of the AFC North with both clubs coming into this week at 10-4. Before Pittsburgh dropped a 22-19 decision to the Jets last week, they hadn’t allowed a team to reach 20 points in four weeks.

Smallest spread of the week – 49ers at Rams (-1, 39.5)

This line opened at St. Louis -2 in Vegas but has already dropped a point throughout the day.

“It’s hard to believe that the 49ers with just five wins are still in a position to win the NFC West,” says Esposito. “However, if you look at the way it lines up if they win they could easily be in control in the West. If they beat the Rams and the Bucs beat the Seahawks in Tampa Bay they all would be tied.”

What an awful, awful division.

Biggest total of the week - Saints at Falcons (-2, 48.5)

The New Orleans Saints were held to fewer than 30 points for the first time in six games in last week’s 30-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, Atlanta has scored 65 points over the past two games, so both offenses are obviously rolling.

Don’t forget the defense in this one either though. The Saints rank eighth in total defense and the Falcons only give up 18.6 points per game – good for seventh in the NFL.

Smallest total of the week - Panthers at Steelers (13.5, 37)

Weather is the biggest factor with totals this week so jumping at any number before the day of the game is a risky proposition. The Panthers hold the lowest total for yet another week, but that distinction could be short-lived.

“Look for the Jets at Bears total once posted to be lower at around 35,” says Esposito.

Trickiest line of the week

The Colts, with Austin Collie’s status up in the air, are set as 3-point favorites on the road. Indy had dropped the cash three weeks in a row before it downed the Jags 34-24 as a 4-point favorite last week.

“With the Colts win yesterday they control their own destiny and have a huge tie-breaker edge over the Jags, however losing Collie is a big blow,” Esposito says. “They still have Wayne and Garcon but Collie had developed a great relationship with Manning.”
Malinsky echoes that sentiment and doesn’t expect Indianapolis to make a deep run this year.

“They might have enough to gut it out and make the playoffs, but will be too limited to get very far this year, especially when they have to take to the road,” Malinsky says.

Other Week 16 early lines

Cowboys at Cardinals (6.5, 45)

Lions at Dolphins (-3.5, 41.5)

Redskins at Jaguars (-6.5, 45)

Titans at Chiefs (-5, 42)

Ravens at Browns (3.5, 39.5)

Patriots at Bills (9, 44)

Chargers at Bengals (7.5, 44)

Texans at Broncos (2.5, 48)

Seahawks at Buccaneers (-6, 43.5)

**Udog** · 12-21-2010, 02:15 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, December 23

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CAROLINA (2 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 4) - 12/23/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 25

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DALLAS (5 - 9) at ARIZONA (4 - 10) - 12/25/2010, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 26

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DETROIT (4 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (5 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 4) - 12/26/2010, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (8 - 6) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 9) at ST LOUIS (6 - 8) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 82-112 ATS (-41.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 6) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 2) at BUFFALO (4 - 10) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-103 ATS (+20.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (10 - 4) at CHICAGO (10 - 4) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (10 - 4) at CLEVELAND (5 - 9) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (6 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 5) - 12/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 6) at OAKLAND (7 - 7) - 12/26/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-60 ATS (-37.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (5 - 9) at DENVER (3 - 11) - 12/26/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
DENVER is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (9 - 5) at GREEN BAY (8 - 6) - 12/26/2010, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (8 - 6) at CINCINNATI (3 - 11) - 12/26/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 27

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) at ATLANTA (12 - 2) - 12/27/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-21-2010, 02:15 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, 12/23/2010

CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NFL
CAROLINA: 47-27 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
PITTSBURGH: 8-19 ATS as a double digit favorite

Saturday, 12/25/2010

DALLAS at ARIZONA, 7:30 PM ET NFL
DALLAS: 11-0 Over last 11 games
ARIZONA: 8-2 ATS on Saturday

Sunday, 12/26/2010

DETROIT at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 10-3 ATS in all games
MIAMI: 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA, 8:25 PM ET NBC | (TC)
MINNESOTA: N/A
PHILADELPHIA: 8-0 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24+ points

WASHINGTON at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 10-2 ATS Away after BB losses by 6 or less points
JACKSONVILLE: 0-8 ATS off division loss

SAN FRANCISCO at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-1 ATS off ATS loss
ST LOUIS: 8-26 ATS with same season revenge

SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
SEATTLE: 7-0 ATS after allowing 25+ points BB games
TAMPA BAY: 2-11 ATS in home games

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 7-0 Over L7 weeks
BUFFALO: 14-4 ATS off road win by 3 points or less

NY JETS at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 8-2 ATS off SU win as an underdog
CHICAGO: N/A

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 8-2 ATS if 50+ points were scored last game
CLEVELAND: 1-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

TENNESSEE at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 19-7 ATS off a home division win
KANSAS CITY: 1-7 ATS off SU win by 10+ as a road underdog

INDIANAPOLIS at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-25 ATS the last 2 weeks of the regular season
OAKLAND: 7-0 ATS at home after gaining 7 or more yards/play

HOUSTON at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 30-15 ATS after BB losses
DENVER: 0-7 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points

NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 1-5 ATS off SU loss as a home favorite
GREEN BAY: 10-3 OVER off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI, 4:05 PM ET (TC)
SAN DIEGO: 27-13 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games
CINCINNATI: 11-24 ATS against conference opponents

Monday, 12/27/2010

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 ATS off a road loss
ATLANTA: 9-1 Over if total is 42.5 and 49

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-21-2010, 02:16 PM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 23

8:20 PM
CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home

Saturday, December 25

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

Sunday, December 26

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of New England's last 23 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MIAMI
Detroit is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Detroit is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CHICAGO
NY Jets are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
Chicago is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. OAKLAND
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games

4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Green Bay
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Monday, December 27

8:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-22-2010, 08:44 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Carolina at Pittsburgh
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 10 1/2 points or more. Carolina is the pick (+14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by only 13. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+14 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 101-102: Carolina at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.789; Pittsburgh 134.638
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 34
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+14 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25

Game 103-104: Dallas at Arizona (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 133.135; Arizona 119.936
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 105-106: Detroit at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 130.315; Miami 135.144
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: Minnesota at Philadelphia (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 129.009; Philadelphia 138.181
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9; 40
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 109-110: Washington at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.803; Jacksonville 134.524
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 10; 41
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-7); Under

Game 111-112: San Francisco at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 126.418; St. Louis 125.160
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 43
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Seattle at Tampa Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.978; Tampa Bay 130.315
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 144.622; Buffalo 133.337
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Under

Game 117-118: NY Jets at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 134.624; Chicago 133.459
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+1); Over

Game 119-120: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.666; Cleveland 129.810
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under

Game 121-122: Tennessee at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 124.951; Kansas City 132.783
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 8; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Indianapolis at Oakland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.279; Oakland 133.867
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

Game 125-126: Houston at Denver (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.824; Denver 126.051
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Under

Game 127-128: NY Giants at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.463; Green Bay 142.975
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 129-130: San Diego at Cincinnati (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.000; Cincinnati 127.132
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 27

Game 131-132: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.157; Atlanta 138.337
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

**Udog** · 12-22-2010, 08:15 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 16 games

Panthers (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)—Carolina off a win, Pitt off a loss, is now tied for AFC North lead, so win here is huge, since division winner likely to have first round bye. Panthers are 2-4 as road dog this year, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17 points- they scored 14-10-19 points last three weeks (4 TDs on 34 drives) with only TD last week coming on 16-yard drive. Steelers are 3-0 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they’re just 4-3 SU at home, 3-3 as home fave, with wins by 6-18-32-16 points. Carolina lost both previous visits here, 30-20/30-14, but last one was in 2002. Panthers were outscored 51-16 in second half of last three games. AFC North home favorites are just 4-10 in non-divisional games. Four of last five Steeler games stayed under total.

Cowboys (5-9) @ Cardinals (4-10)—Dallas now 4-2 (5-1 vs spread) under Garrett, scoring 32.2 ppg; they scored only 20.1 ppg before Phillips got canned- is Garrett trying little harder now that he’s head coach? Home side won nine of last ten series games; Dallas lost five of last six visits to desert, falling 30-24 in OT in last visit, in ’08. Arizona lost eight of last nine games; they’re 3-4 at home, with losses by 3-18-21-13 points. Redbirds were +3/+5 in turnovers last two games they won. Last four Cowboy games were all decided by 3 points; Dallas is 1-6 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they’re 3-3 SU on road, winning by 14-13-3 points (won at Giants/Colts). NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-2 on road. NFC West home dogs are 6-4. Last 11 Dallas games went over the total.

Giants (9-5) @ Packers (9-5)—Huge game with #6 seed in NFC up for grabs; how do Giants bounce back from last week’s debacle, blowing 31-10 lead at home in last 8:00 in pivotal division rivalry game? First series meeting since Giants won NFC title game in OT here three years ago; road team won last five series games-- Giants won last two visits here. Packers lost last two games, both by 4 points; they’re 5-1 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning by 27-2-4-38-18 points (lost to Miami in OT). Giants are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as underdog; all four of their losses are by 7+ points. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total. Does Rodgers come back for Packers, and if so, how effective is he?

Lions (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7)—Detroit is 11-3 vs spread this year, 5-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-14-8-2-16 points; they broke 3-year road losing streak in Tampa last week, now visit Miami squad that is 1-6 at home this year (6-1 on road). Dolphins are 0-5 as home favorite this year; dogs covered all seven of their home games, with Fish scoring 0-10-14 points in last three home tilts. Lions are 2-7 in series, losing all four visits here by average score of 36-20. This is only 4th grass game of year for Lions, who lost by 5-2 points, and won by 3 in OT in three previous games on grass. AFC East home favorites are just 5-9-1 vs spread in non-division games. NFC North road dogs are 9-5-1. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 Detroit games, 2-6 in last eight Miami games.

Redskins (5-9) @ Jaguars (8-6)—How will host Jags bounce back from another disappointment at hands of Colts, who now win AFC South by beating Raiders/Titans in last two games? Grossman played well enough in Dallas last week (25-43/286), but odd way they’ve shunned McNabb points to fractured team. Inexperienced Beck expected to see some time at QB here, for Skin squad that is in sandwich between rivals Dallas/Giants, and is 4-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-24-3 points (won at Philly/Chicago). Jags are 8-6 despite being favored only four times all year; they’re 5-2 in last seven games, 4-0 vs spread as favorite. Over is 6-2 in Jags’ last eight games, 1-4 in Redskins’ last five. Redskins won three of four series meetings, splitting pair here.

49ers (5-9) @ Rams (6-8)—Niners won last five series games, taking 23-20 OT flagfest (26 accepted penalties) in Candlestick (-6) in Week 10, when Rams couldn’t hold late lead (SF got 1st down after having 3rd-and-32 on game-tying drive). Starting with that game, Rams are 22 for last 85 on 3rd down (25.9%); failure to move chains, improve field position has put too much strain on defense. Rams are 4-3 at home, 2-1 as favorite, but they haven’t scored first half TD in last three games; hopefully return of injured TE Hoomanawanui will help- he was last active in Denver, when they scored 36 points. 49ers are 1-6 in true road games, even losing at 2-14 Carolina. St Louis has thinnest of leads in NFC West; Niners are still alive with win here.

Seahawks (6-8) @ Buccaneers (8-6)—Seattle is still tied for first in NFC West, even though all eight of its losses are by 15+ points; Seahawks are 2-4 as road underdogs this year. Bucs lost three of last four games, with last three decided by total of 8 points- they’re 1-2-2 vs as a favorite. Tampa needs Packers to beat Giants and win here to tie for Wild Card slot; they’re just 3-4 at home, winning by 3-1-15 points. Seattle threw eight INTs in last three games; they’re minus-10 in turnovers last four games. In their last two games, Bucs have no TDs, four FGs on five trips to red zone. Seahawks won four of five visits here; average total in last seven series meetings is 23.7. That said, Seattle’s last seven games this year went over total. NFC West road underdogs are 6-11 outside the division.

Patriots (10-4) @ Bills (4-10)—Pats clinch NFC East with win here or Jet loss in Chicago; they’ve won 14 in row vs Buffalo, taking last six here by 14-28-22-46-13-7 points. NE won first meeting this year 38-30 (-14) in Week 3, running ball for 200 yards, but Buffalo averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempts in that game, their 3rd-best mark this year. Bills are 4-2 in last six games after 0-8 start; they’re 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine games overall, outscoring last five foes 68-20 in second half. Patriots scored 31+ points in each of last six games, winning last three on road by 13-21-29 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Last eight New England games went over total; under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games.

Ravens (10-4) @ Browns (5-9)—Anytime Ravens (formerly Browns) return to Cleveland, there’s venom in air; they beat Cleveland 24-17 (-10.5) in first meeting, despite Browns running ball for 173 yards (2nd-highest total of year), in their 5th straight series loss. Ravens are 7-4 on Lake Erie, winning last two years, 37-27/16-0. Last four Raven games have been very close; they’re 4-3 on road, winning last two away games 37-13/34-28. Last six Cleveland games were all decided by 7 or less points; Browns are 5-6-1 as underdogs, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 2-10-6 points. League-wide, home dogs are 18-12-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 in AFC North. Browns’ last three games all stayed under the total.

Jets (10-4) @ Bears (10-4)—Rex Ryan against team his dad helped win Super Bowl 25 years ago; Bears clinched division with win Monday night, but are in scrap with Eagles for #2 seed and first-round bye, which is big- they’ve won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 at home, 0-3 as home favorites. Chicago outscored last three opponents 40-13 in second half. Jets are pretty much locked into Wild Card, but haven’t clinched yet; they’re 6-1 on road, with all seven road games going over total. Chicago is 6-3 in series, 3-2 in games played here. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 10-3. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total, as have last four Chicago games.

Titans (6-8) @ Chiefs (9-5)—Road team won last three series games; Chiefs split only two visits here, with last one back in ’04. Titans snapped 6-game skid last week; they’ve lost last three road games by 8-12-20 points, after starting season 3-0 on road. Chiefs got Cassel back under center last week; they’ve won last four games he played, and are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 7-21-22-3-18-4 points. KC needs to keep winning to stay step ahead of San Diego in AFC West, while Titans technically are still alive in their division; Fisher is using OC Heimerdinger (cancer) as an inspiration of how not to quit. Despite undergoing chemo, Heimerdinger hasn’t missed one day of work since he was diagnosed with cancer.

Colts (8-6) @ Raiders (7-7)—Oakland is 5-0 in its division, 2-7 outside it; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Texans by 7, Dolphins by 16. Colts scored 35-30-34 points last three weeks, as prolific Manning continues to amaze; after tossing 11 INTs in 3-game stretch, Colts haven’t turned ball over last two weeks, can now win AFC South if they win this game and beat Titans at home next week. Raiders want to pound ball; they’ve run it for 251-153-264 yards in last three games, scoring average of 32.7 ppg. Colts allowed 24+ points in six of seven road games; they’re 3-4 on road, 1-3-1 as road favorite. AFC West underdogs are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-3 at home. AFC South favorites are 9-9-2, 2-1-2 on road. Four of last five Indy games went over the total.

Texans (5-9) @ Broncos (3-11)— Both sides sinking here; Texans lost last three games, allowing 33 ppg (gave up 11 TDs on last 30 drives), outscored 65-20 in first half of those games- they’ve lost last five road games. Denver lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), converting just 10 of last 60 on 3rd down; they’re 2-4 at home, but did score 82 points in last two home games. League-wide, home underdogs in non-divisional games are 18-19-3. Six of last seven Texan games went over total, as did three of last four Bronco games. Houston coach Kubiak came to Texans from Broncos, could he be returning as Denver HC if Houston fires him? First home start for Tebow, who did OK in starting debut last week. Not much to choose from on either side, except maybe the over. Check weather.

Chargers (8-6) @ Bengals (3-11)—San Diego needs two wins and a KC loss to make playoffs; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 29+ points in wins- they allowed only one TD on last 18 drives with 10 3/outs. Since halftime of loss to Raiders, they’ve outscored opponents 75-14 in last 10 quarters. Bengals snapped 10-game skid last week, running ball for 188 yards, their most this year by 39 yards. Cincy covered in only two of 11 losses this year, even though six of its 11 losses are by 7 or less points- they’re 3-5 as an underdog, 2-1 at home. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 2-3 on road. AFC North underdogs are 8-9-2. 3-2 at home. Last five Charger games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total.

Vikings (5-9) @ Eagles (10-4)—America is clamoring for more Joe Webb, so NBC flexed out of Charger-Bengal game into this, probably hoping Favre would play, which he won’t. Minnesota lost last two games by combined score of 61-17; over last six games, they’ve been outscored 70-27 in second half, a sign of team in tank. Vikings are 1-5-1 vs. spread as an underdog this year. Eagles are off pair of NFC East wins with Cowboy rematch on deck; they’re 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home fave, with home wins by 14-2-10-10 points. NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread outside the division, 5-8 at home; NFC North underdogs are 11-7-1, 9-5-1 on road. Nine of last ten Eagle games went over total. Given chance to hammer Vikings, Reid probably will, seeing as they fired his buddy Childress.

Saints (10-4) @ Falcons (12-2)—Defending champs have four losses; they were -2/-3/-4/-2 in turnovers in those games. Atlanta (+4) upset Saints 27-24 in Week 3, running ball for 202 yards, but allowing 8.9 yards/pass attempt; underrated Falcons won last eight games, covered last six- they just won/covered three in row on road, not easy to do. Atlanta is 6-0 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 34-2-7-6-5-3 points. Saints had 6-game win streak snapped last week, but they’ve also allowed 27+ points in three of last four games; they’re 5-2 on road. Falcons haven’t lost a fumble in their last seven games. Over is 7-2 in last nine Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Saint tilts. Home team is just 1-8 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games, with home favorites 1-4.

**Udog** · 12-22-2010, 11:10 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 23

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What bettors need to know: Panthers at Steelers
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Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 37)

Big NFL pointspreads - like in Thursday night’s Panthers-Steelers matchup at blustery Heinz Field - can be very difficult to handicap.

Clearly, the Steelers (10-4, 8-6 ATS) are by far the superior team and very capable of whipping the Panthers by more than two touchdowns. Four of the Steelers’ 10 wins have come by more than 14 points. Plus, the 2-12 Panthers are about as bad as it gets.

Carolina (2-12, 4-10 ATS) has failed to win on the road this season, losing by an average score of 25-16. Overwhelmed rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen is at the controls of the worst offense in the league. Six of the Panthers’ 12 losses have come by more than two touchdowns.

The Steelers, who have clinched a playoff berth, still have plenty to play for, including the AFC North, which they can capture by beating the Panthers and the Browns next week.

The Panthers, on the other hand, haven’t been playing for anything other than draft position for months.

But even with all that, it’s still an uneasy feeling to lay more than two touchdowns in the NFL. Double-digit favorites are just 7-10 against the spread this season.

The Line

The Steelers opened as 14-point favorites, but the two touchdowns didn’t scare away Pittsburgh bettors. The number was bumped up to 14.5 at most outlets, with a few 15s available as of Wednesday.

Carolina has covered in four of its last five games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 December games.

The Steelers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

The Total

The total opened at 37 and was holding steady as of Wednesday afternoon.

Snow is forecast throughout Thursday, although the accumulation is expected to be moderate. The wind is also expected to be moderate, around 11-15 mph.

The Steelers’ reputation as a run-oriented team with a stingy defense has produced a profitable run of overs. The over is 50-24-3 (65 percent) in the Steelers lasts 77 games as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh is scoring 21.9 and surrendering 15.7 points per game. Carolina is scoring 13.1 and allowing 25 points per game.

The teams last met in 2006 with the Steelers winning 37-3.

Injury Report

Troy Polamalu, the Steelers’ All-Pro safety, missed Tuesday’s practice with an ankle injury and is not expected to play. Backup defensive end Aaron Smith also is doubtful after missing practice this week with a triceps injury.

For the Panthers, defensive end Tyler Brayton (hip), running back Mike Goodson (illness), fullback Tony Fiametta (ankle) and corner Captain Munnerlyn missed Tuesday’s practice.

Carolina is expected to get starting corner Chris Gamble (ankle) back. Gamble missed the last three games.

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**Udog** · 12-23-2010, 09:56 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 23

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Tips and Trends
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Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers [NFL-NETWORK | 8:20 PM ET]

PANTHERS: Carolina picked up a very rare SU win last week, beating the Arizona 19-12 SU. The Panthers are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS overall this season. Despite the win, Carolina still has the worst record in the NFL this year. The Panthers have yet to win a game away from home this year, 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS. Carolina is 1-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this year. QB Jimmy Clausen is taking his lumps this year, but he's not quitting. Clausen has thrown for 1,304 YDS and 2 TD's during his time under center for Carolina. The Panthers do have the 12th ranked rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 116.8 YPG. Carolina has by far the worst scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 13.1 PPG this year. The Panthers have allowed 5 of their past 7 opponents to score at least 30 PTS. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games played in December. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog of more than 10.5 points.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - CB Chris Gamble (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 10

STEELERS: (-13, O/U 37) Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth, thanks to a 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS season. The Steelers are trying to win the AFC North, as they look to stay in front of Baltimore. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week, but at least they didn't have to travel during this time. Pittsburgh is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season at home. The Steelers are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite more than a TD this year. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 1,150 YDS and 10 TD's this year. WR Mike Wallace has more than 1,000 receiving YDS this year, including 8 TD's. Defensively, the Steelers allow just 15.7 PPG this season, tied for the NFL best. The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Steelers are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of more than 10.5 points.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - S Troy Polamalu (achilles) is questionable.

Projected Score: 28 (SIDE of the Day)

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**Udog** · 12-23-2010, 11:06 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16
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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Why Cowboys cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Cards. Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the league and could be without linebacker Joey Porter who has a triceps injury.

Why Cardinals cover: Larry Fitzgerald has become the focus of the offense again with John Skelton at quarterback and is averaging 33 yards more per game with the rookie under center.

Total (45): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Why Lions cover: They are coming off huge back-to-back wins over tough conference opponents and are expected to get quarterback Shaun Hill back from injury.

Why Dolphins cover: Detroit's playmakers are banged up and Miami boasts the NFL's fourth best defense. The Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.

Total (41.5): The over is 3-1-1 in the Lions’ last five road games and 10-4-1 in the Dolphins' last 15 home games.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5)

Why 49ers cover: They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against the Rams and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to St. Louis.

Why Rams cover: San Francisco will go back to Troy Smith at quarterback. In five games with him under center the Niners were 2-3 ATS and averaged 18-points per game.

Total (39.5): The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four in St. Louis.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)

Why Vikings cover: They have a strong defense that could slow down Philadelphia's potent offensive attack and give their offense enough room to cover the two-touchdown spread.

Why Eagles cover: The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Eagles. Minnesota is likely to start rookie Joe Webb at quarterback and could be without Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson who has injuries to his thigh and knee.

Total (44): The over is 4-0 in the Eagles' last four games.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-1)

Why Jets cover: They are 11-4 straight up on the road under coach Rex Ryan. The Jets defense will look to abuse one of the weaker offensive lines in football.

Why Bears cover: The forecast for Sunday in Chicago is cold and windy with flurries, which isn't promising for Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Meanwhile Jets wideout Santonio Holmes is dealing with a turf toe injury.

Total (36.5): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9)

Why Patriots cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bills and 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Buffalo. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings these two AFC East rivals.

Why Bills cover: Look for Buffalo to take a page out of Green Bay's book last week and attempt to control the time of possession with a heavy dose of Fred Jackson on the ground against New England's 28th ranked defense.

Total (44): The under is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 games in Buffalo.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)

Why Seahawks cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Tampa Bay. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Buccaneers cover: Seattle will stick with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback even though he’s turned the ball over a whopping 13 times in his last four games.

Total (43.5): The under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and 4-0 in the last four games in Tampa Bay.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

Why Redskins cover: Rex Grossman (322 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) played well in place of Donovan McNabb last week. Jags Pro Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been hampered by a knee injury and was held to 46 yards on the ground by the Colts' 28th ranked rush defense last week.

Why Jaguars cover: Washington is allowing almost 135 yards per game on the ground and will be without linemen Maake Kemoeatu and Phillip Daniels this week.

Total (45): The over is 7-1 in the Jaguars' last eight games.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)

Why Titans cover: The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings between these two teams. The Titans’ run defense has been phenomenal lately and could pose problems for the Chiefs' top-ranked rush attack.

Why Chiefs cover: They are allowing a league-low 12.2 points per game at home this season.

Total (42): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Why Ravens cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Cleveland. After shocking the NFL with wins against New Orleans and New England, Cleveland has come crashing back to reality with losses against Cincinnati and Buffalo.

Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis totaled 180 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown against Baltimore in Week 3, and helped Cleveland cover as 12-point underdogs.

Total (39.5): The under is 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings in Cleveland.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (+3)

Why Colts cover: Oakland's star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is dealing with a sore ankle. Peyton Manning is protecting the ball and the offense has become more balanced with 242 yards rushing on 56 carries in the last two games.

Why Raiders cover: They average over 150 yards per game on the ground and Indianapolis allows 135 yards rushing per game. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Oakland.

Total (47.5): The over is 4-0-1 in Indy’s last five contests.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+2.5)

Why Texans cover: Arian Foster has shaken off injuries and will start on Sunday against a Denver run defense that is allowing 158.4 rushing yards per game.

Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow showcased his versatility in his first NFL start last week with touchdowns both rushing and passing without turning the ball over. Now gets he faces the NFL's worst pass defense.

Total (48.5): The over is 4-0 in the Texans' last four road games and 4-0 in the Broncos' last four home games.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Why Giants cover: The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The G-Men are the best in the NFL at getting to the quarterback and will look to pressure Aaron Rodgers who is recovering from a concussion.

Why Packers cover: Eli Manning leads the league with 20 interceptions and could struggle against Green Bay's third-ranked pass defense.

Total (43): The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+9)

Why Chargers cover: The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups. Cincy WR Chad Ochocinco will only play half of the game due to bone spurs in his ankle, if he suits up at all.

Why Bengals cover: San Diego's offense could be without running back Ryan Mathews (ankle), tight end Antonio Gates (foot), and receivers Malcom Floyd (hamstring) and Patrick Crayton (wrist).

Total (44): The over is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings and 3-0-1 in the last four matchups in Cincinnati.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees has thrown for 1,256 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four Monday Night games.

Why Falcons cover: The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Falcons. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 19-1 in 20 career starts at home.

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**Udog** · 12-24-2010, 09:42 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL Total Bias: Week 16 over/under picks
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My first impression of DeSean Jackson was that the kid was too prime time for the prime time.

He had that infamous celebratory flip on his way to the end zone that ended up a yard short back in high school and his maturity was a concern in college too. Still, the numbers were crazy.

When he declared for the 2008 draft he owned Pac-10 records for punts returned for touchdowns in both a season (four) and his career (six). He also ranked third all-time at Cal with 2, 423 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns.

And the guy’s raw skill and athleticism was just off the charts.

Checking in under 5-foot-10 at the NFL Combine, he had a 10-foot standing long jump and ran a 4.35 40 and those stats translated into an awesome rookie season. But he had those moments that left you shaking your head still – and not in a good way.

Remember when he flipped the ball out of his hand on the one-yard line when he was on his way to his first NFL touchdown on Monday Night Football? It was just comical how a player so talented could be so careless and that rubbed me the wrong way.

But I’ve come around to back the kid despite myself and it wasn’t just because of last week’s game-winning punt return for a touchdown against the Giants.

Watching him with the ball in his hands is like watching an action hero try to defuse a bomb on the big screen – you know that he’s probably going to make the big play, to save the day, but then again there’s always that chance that everything’s going to blow up in his face.

And that’s what is so great about him. Traditionalists can dump on him the same way they finger-wagged Deion Sanders’ dances and drone on about respect for the game and his immaturity if they like.

For my money, he’s the most dangerous and exciting player in football right now. And that's all I give a dang about.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5, 43)

After Devin Hester and the Bears torched the Vikings last week I don’t see how Minnesota is going to combat Philadelphia’s speed. Incredibly, Mike Vick has been a bit overshadowed by Jackson lately, but he has to be has to be the MVP this year.

Brady will probably get it because he’s Tom Brady, even though Vick deserves it more. Philadelphia has scored at least 30 points in three straight and the only bright side for Minnesota is that Adrian Peterson hasn’t been ruled out … yet.

Does anybody else feel awful for Joe Webb?

Pick: Over

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-3, 43)

Eli Manning reportedly held a players-only meeting at Giants camp this week after DeSean Jackson ripped their hearts out in Week 15. In typical Eli fashion, he apparently said nothing of substance, merely imploring his club to keep pushing forward. When everything goes right for the Giants, they can look like the best team in the league, but it’s hard to trust them.

Aaron Rodgers is supposed to play this week which is great news for the Pack even though Matt Flynn looked pretty good in his own right against the Pats. I think this one is going to be a shot-for-shot affair.

Pick: Over

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (3.5, 39.5)

The last time these clubs hooked up, Peyton Hillis stole the spotlight with 180 all-purpose yards and a touchdown as the Browns put a serious scare into the Ravens.
Don’t count on lightning striking twice.

It looks like Hillis is showing the wear and tear of a season in which he has been Cleveland’s only offensive weapon. The big back sat out practice on Wednesday and while the team says that absence was more to do with rest than a banged up quad, you have to wonder.

The Browns have had a good year but are fading down the stretch while this is a huge game for the Ravens. Snow and wind are also in the forecast as of now.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 22-24

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**Udog** · 12-24-2010, 09:47 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 25

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Cowboys at Cardinals: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45)

The Arizona Cardinals were still in a playoff race as late as last week. The Dallas Cowboys have seemingly been out of it contention since September. All in all, just a great Christmas night present from the NFL to the fans.

NOT IN THE CARDS

The Cardinals’ problems began after a loss in the playoffs last season, when quarterback Kurt Warner decided to call it a remarkable career and retire before he turned into a less compelling version of Brett Favre.

There were reports before the season began and even a month into the campaign that former Arizona teammates were calling Warner trying to convince him to comeback.

Derek Anderson wasn’t able to get it done and neither was undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall, who managed one touchdown and six interceptions in parts of six games before finding his way onto injured reserve.

Enter rookie John Skelton, who has continued Arizona’s 2010 tradition of poor quarterback play by completing 46 percent of his passes without a touchdown in three games.

Skelton went 17 of 33 for 196 yards, an interception and a lost fumble in a 19-12 loss at Carolina last weekend.

Here’s a stat pack from the Arizona Republic sure to scare football fans:

Arizona quarterbacks have completed just 50.5 percent of their passes and have just eight TD passes so far this season. That’s pretty crazy when you consider the Cards have 10 return TDs.

COWBOY UP

Backup Dallas QB Jon Kitna has been better than expected while filling in for the injured Tony Romo. Kitna is doing the things a veteran backup is expected to do by throwing for 2,250 yards and 15 touchdowns in nine games.

Kitna’s play has led to success under interim coach Garrett, who was promoted after Wade Phillips was let go.

Dallas has gone 4-2 while scoring at least 27 points in all six games under Garrett. A couple of more wins to close out the season could prompt owner Jerry Jones to take the “interim” tag off Garrett’s nameplate.

DESPISING DALLAS

Cards starting QB John Skelton did not grow up rooting for the Cowboys despite being a Texas native. The rookie says he adopted his distaste for the Boys from his father but never really had a favorite team growing up.

“That was my team, yeah,” Skelton told reporters. “Whoever was against the Cowboys.”

TAKE MY FOOTBALL AWAY

Most people expected a decline in Dallas’ defense when former Wade Phillips was given the pink slip earlier this season. Phillips was not just the head coach but also the man directing the team’s defensive schemes.

Well, the Cowboys have been giving up a lot of points (27.3 since Phillips got the boot) but the unit has been contributing in other ways. Dallas has a league-high 16 takeaways in the last six weeks.

"As a staff, we've tried to create a heightened awareness of the turnover," interim defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni told the Dallas Morning News. "Clearly, the turnover is the biggest factor in this game for determining winning and losing. We're trying to make the guys aware that we'd like to go after the ball."

INJURY REPORT

The Cards probably won’t have Derek Anderson as the backup QB on Saturday. He’s listed as doubtful while he deals with his head injury, which means Richard Bartel will be Skelton’s backup.

Outside linebacker Joey Porter, who leads Arizona in sacks with five, has a strained wrist and is questionable. Also for the Cards, return specialist LaRod Stephens-Howling aggravated a hamstring pull and isn’t expected to play against the Cowboys.

Running back Marion Barber should make his return to Dallas’ lineup after missing the past four games due to sore calf. Receiver Roy Williams missed practice this week because of a groin injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.

TRENDS

The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

The Cards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and the Cowboys are 1-5 in their last six games as road favorites.

The over is 13-3 in Dallas’ last 16 games overall and 6-2 in Arizona’s last eight home games.

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**Udog** · 12-24-2010, 09:52 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 25

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Tips and Trends
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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals [NFL-NETWORK | 7:30 PM ET]

COWBOYS: (-7, O/U 45) Dallas will be trying to win consecutive games for just the 2nd time this season. The Cowboys are just 5-9 SU this season, but 4 of those wins have come in their past 6 games. Dallas is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS overall this season. Dallas is 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Tonight will mark just the 2nd time this year the Cowboys will be the listed road favorite. Offensively, Dallas has scored at least 27 PTS in each of their past 6 games. QB Jon Kitna has filled in admirably for Dallas, as he's throw for 2,250 and 15 TD's during his time as starter. TE Jason Witten has over 900 receiving YDS and 7 TD's this year for the Cowboys. Dallas is allowing 28.3 PPG this year, the 2nd most in the NFL. Against the anemic Cardinals offense, the Cowboys have a legitimate shot at a great game. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in December. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The Cowboys are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a losing home record. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Cowboys are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall. Over is 9-0 last 9 games against the NFC.

Key Injuries - WR Roy Williams (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

CARDINALS: Only 3 teams in the NFL have a worse record than Arizona. The Cardinals are 4-10 both SU and ATS this year. Arizona has been competitive at home this season, as they are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. Arizona is 2-2 ATS as the listed home underdog this year. WR Larry Fitzgerald is the lone offensive threat for Arizona, as he's caught 78 balls for 986 YDS and 5 TD's this season. Arizona is averaging just 18.2 PPG, 6th fewest in the NFL. The Cardinals have held 2 of their past 3 opponents under 20 PTS. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Arizona is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS against a team with a losing record. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. Arizona is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the NFC.

Cardinals are 9-3 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-2 last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - LB Joey Porter (tricep) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 17

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**Udog** · 12-25-2010, 09:29 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 26

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NFL Week 16 weather report: Snow, snow and more snow
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Let’s hope Santa brought NFL fans some warm clothes this Christmas. They’ll need to bundle up with nasty winter weather impacting Week 16 of the football season.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 41.5)

Morning rains will give way to strong winds in South Beach on Sunday. The forecast is calling for winds of up to 25 mph whipping through Sun Life Stadium, blowing northwest from corner to corner.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 46)

It seems strong winds will beat up the Sunshine State on Sunday. Winds of speeds up to 25 mph will hit Everbank Field, blowing west across the gridiron.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40)

Cleveland will be hit with snow and ice on Sunday, dropping temperatures into the mid 20s. However, a chilly breeze, blowing north, will reach speeds of up to 30 mph and make it feel more like 14 degrees.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-1, N/A)

Snow showers and 15-mph winds will make life tough on the Jets and Bears in Week 16. The forecast for Soldier Field is calling for game-time temperatures in the mid 20 with the wind chill making it feel like 17 degrees. This is the Bears’ weather while Jets QB Mark Sanchez seems to struggle in the white stuff.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9, 44)

This classic AFC East battle has the perfect weather for hardcore football fans. Buffalo will get snow showers along with 20-mph winds blowing northeast from corner to corner. Temperatures will feel like they’re only 8 degrees at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+9, 43.5)

The Chargers are far from home when they visit the Bengals in Week 16. The forecast in Ohio is calling for snow, 20-mph gusts and game-time temps dipping into the mid teens.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (+2, 47.5)

Even the Bay Area can’t escape the wrath of winter. Oakland will be soggy on Sunday with rain hitting Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in the afternoon, before clearing later in the evening.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-3, 43)

It’s classic Lambeau when the Giants come to Green Bay on Sunday. Snow showers will coat the field with winds reaching 10 mph, dropping temperatures into the low teens. A fragile Aaron Rodgers should be wary of the G-Men’s pass rush, because hits hurt even more in the cold.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 44)

Winds will reach gust of up to 30 mph in Tampa Bay this Sunday, keeping long passes and kicks at the mercy of Mother Nature. Gust will blow west-northwest across the field at Raymond James Stadium.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 41.5)

No matter who is under center for the Vikings, they’ll have to deal with less-than-perfect conditions at Lincoln Financial Field. The forecast for Philly is calling for snow showers all day including strong winds gusting of speeds up to 30 mph, blowing north-northeast from corner to corner.

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**Udog** · 12-25-2010, 09:31 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 26

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Sunday Night Football: Vikings at Eagles
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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 41.5)

Brett Favre's attempt at a dramatic comeback last week didn't last long. Not that it could have rivaled the one authored by Michael Vick.

Because of an injury to Favre, the two quarterbacks may not be able to square off for a final time when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night.

The Eagles (10-4, 7-7 ATS) can clinch the NFC East title with a victory - and it's looking increasingly likely that Favre will be reduced to the role of a spectator for the matchup.

Bye bye Brett

Favre may have made the final appearance of his legendary career when he suffered a concussion in Monday night's 40-14 drubbing at the hands of the Chicago Bears that dropped Minnesota to 5-9 (4-10 ATS) on the season.

The three-time NFL Most Valuable Player made a surprise start two days after he had been ruled out of the game with a shoulder injury. He didn't last long, walking off the field in the second quarter after he was flung to the turf on a sack by Chicago's Corey Wootton.

Favre had yet to pass a concussion test as of Thursday and he's not expected to play against the Eagles, clearing the way for rookie Joe Webb to make his first career start.

That figures to be a daunting task against Vick and the Eagles, who made a comeback of historic proportions in a shocking 38-31 victory over the New York Giants last week.

Action Jackson

Philadelphia trailed by 21 points with 8:17 before Vick spurred a furious rally in which Philadelphia scored 28 consecutive points, capping the miraculous comeback on DeSean Jackson's 65-yard punt return on the game's final play.

Vick made a thunderous statement as to his MVP credentials by throwing for a pair of touchdown passes and running for a score in the final 7 1/2 minutes.

That set up Jackson's dramatic return, which was the first game-winning punt return for a touchdown in NFL annals.

For the game, Vick threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns and also rushed for 130 yards and a score as Philadelphia took sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Vick became just the third player to throw for three touchdowns and run for more than 100 yards in a game.

For the season, Vick has thrown for 2,755 yards with 20 touchdowns against five interceptions. He also has rushed for 613 yards and eight scores despite opening the season as a backup and missing three games to injury.

Joe vs. the volcano

Backup quarterback Joe Webb finished 15 of 26 for 129 yards and two interceptions in relief of Favre last week. He scored his first NFL touchdown on a 13-yard run.

Whether Webb or Favre lines up under center, the task will be much easier if star running back Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota’s lineup. Peterson missed last week’s game with a thigh injury but hopes to play Sunday after practicing on a limited basis Thursday.

Peterson is within 151 yards of joining Earl Campbell as the only NFL running backs to rush for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first four seasons.

Weather

The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for snow flurries and strong winds reaching up to 30 mph Sunday night. Game-time temperatures will dip into the teens at Lincoln Financial Field. Deep passing, punts and kicks will be most impacted by the weather.

Trends

- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in Eagles last four games overall.
- Over is 12-4 in Vikings last 16 games as a road underdog.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (12/23 - 12/27)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (12/23 - 12/27)

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