BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS 3 OF THE LAST 4 YEARs

[GOLDENGREEK]

These did well for three yrs in a row and fell off dramatically last year


decided to post them again because i was asked by a few members to do so



** caution / disclaimer ** :

Systems change each and every year

vegas is very aware of these systems and ajusts accordingly

use this only as a tool to our own handicapping - not a bible

last years results do not guarentee the same results this year !!!

[GOLDENGREEK]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

2007: 33-14 ATS
2008: 29-12 ATS
2009: 28-23 ATS



BROKEN DOWN BY SYSTEM:


2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH

2007: 2-3 ATS
2008: 2-5 ATS
2009: 4-4-1 ATS


2010:

UTEP + 11.5
??....SYRACUSE PK ( OPENED AS A 3 POINT DOG )
NOTRE DAME + 3
NORTHWESTERN + 9.5
PENN ST + 7.5
FLORIDA ST + 3


3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:


2007: 19-7 ATS
2008: 12- 3 ATS
2009: 8-5 ATS


2010:

3 UNITS FRESNO ST + 1.5
3 UNITS UTAH + 17
3 UNITS FLOR INTER + 1.5
3 UNITS GTECH + 3
3 UNITS NC ST + 3
3 UNITS IOWA + 3
3 UNITS ECAR + 7
3 UNITS ILLINOIS + 1.5
3 UNITS ARIZONA + 5
3 UNITS TENN + 3
3 UNITS WASH + 14
3 UNITS MICH + 4.5
3 UNITS WISKY + 2
3 UNITS UCONN + 17
3 UNITS ARK + 3.5
3 UNITS MIDDLE TENN + 1
3 UNITS TEX A & M + 1
3 UNITS KENTUCKY + 3
3 UNITS BC + 9.5




5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units


2007: 10-2
2008: 8-1 OR 8-2
2009: 6-3


2010:

???? 5 UNITS TROY ON THE MONEYLINE ( OPENED AS A PICK )
5 UNITS LOUIVILLE ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS CLEMSON ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS GEORGIA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS ALABAMA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS SD ST ON THE MONEYLINE


Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-2 ATS
2008: 5-3 ATS
2009: 6-3 ATS


2010:

UTAH + 17
FLOR ST + 3
UCONN + 17
WISKY + 2
V TECH + 3
ARKANSAS + 3.5
TEX A & M + 1
OREGON + 2.5



Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

2007: 3-0 ATS
2008: 1-1 ATS
2009: 2-3 ATS

2010:

ALABAMA -10



A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

2007: 6-0 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-3 ATS


2010:

BOSTON COLLEGE + 9.5
IOWA + 3
ARIZONA + 5
WASH + 14
MICHIGAN + 5
NC ST + 3
TULSA + 10.5



A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

2007: 1-1 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-2 ATS

2010:

GEORGIA - 6.5


Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year


2008: 6-2 ATS
2009: 6-7 ATS
2010:

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM

STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. ( 2007 ) We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams OVERALL in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog


2007: 10-4 ATS
2008: 9-5 ATS
2009: 7-4 ATS

2010:

Ohio +1.5
Navy +5
FIU +1.5
Ga Tech +3
Iowa +1
Illinois +1.5
Syracuse +1
UCONN +17
MTSU +1.5
Texas A&M +1.5


Notre Dame, Michigan St, & Michigan's run numbers are very close to Miami, Alabama & Miss. St.




.

[GOLDENGREEK]

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS


BOWL SYSTEM

BETTING AGAINST THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the easiest bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Here are the results from the last 35 games in which the Heisman Winner played.

HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
2008 FLORIDA 24 - Oklahoma (Sam Bradford) 14 +5 WINNER
2009 ALABAMA 37 ( Mark Ingram)- TEXAS 21 - 4 LOSER

RESULT: 25-9-1: 73.5% VS SPREAD


TAKE OREGON + 2.5

[GOLDENGREEK]

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

2009-10 record: 5-2: Wyoming +10 (W), Marshall +3 (W), North Carolina +1 (L), Air Force +4.5 (W) Stanford +10 (W), Florida State +3 (W), Michigan State +9.5 (L)
Historical record: 70-36-2 (66%) since 1997; Z-factor 3.3
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

Fresno State +1
Ohio +2.5
Utah +17
Navy +4.5
Georgia Tech +3
NC State +3
Illinois +1
Arizona +5
Kansas State +1
Washington +14
Notre Dame +3
Wisconsin +2.5
Arkansas +3.5
Texas A&M +1
Boston College +9.5

[GOLDENGREEK]

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls
2009-010 record: 3-1: Wyoming +10 (W), SMU +11 (W), BC +7.5 (L), Stanford +10 (W)

Historical record: 57-28-3 (67%) since 1983; Z-factor 3.1
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

UTEP +11.5
Utah +17
Tulsa +10
East Carolina +7.5*** WATCH THIS LINE
Army +8
Washington +14

[GOLDENGREEK]

Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 49-24 ATS L9 yrs

East Carolina +7.5
Arizona +5.5
Army +7
USF +4
UcF +7




Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS



None



Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ATS


Unknown



Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10

None



Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 SU,ATS

San Diego State -3
TCU -3
AUBURN -3



Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss. 1-22 ATS

PLAY AGAINST:

Oklahoma -17
BYU
BOISE
MARYLAND
NEB
T.TECH
FLOR
ALA





Sys #7 - From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W. 1-20 ATS


PLAY AGAINST:


AF
WV
TCU
STAN
OHIO ST
Mia OH
NEV
AUB



Sys #8 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ATS

Couldn't find any




Sys # 9 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ATS

Illinois +3
Northwestern + 9.5
IOWA +3




Sys #10- Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 13-37

UNDERS:

UTEP-BYU
No. Illinois-Fresno State
Ohio-Troy
Utah-Boise State
Navy-San Diego State
Tulsa-Hawaii
Florida Int.-Toledo
Army-SMU
Middle Tennessee-Miami (OH)

[GOLDENGREEK]

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 18-3 SU, 17-4 ATS ( 2-1 IN 2009)


2010:

LOUISVILLE - 3
TROY - 3
N.ILL - 1.5



2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-3 OVER (avg score 82 ppg) ( 0-1 IN 2009)

2010:

OVER TULSA / HAWAII






Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

1) DD dogs are 17-3 ATS L20 ( 1-0 IN 2009 )

2010:

WASH + 14



Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games



2) MAC teams are 1-8-2 ATS L11 ( 0-3-2 IN 2009 )

2010:

FRESNO + 1.5
TROY - 3
FLORIDA INTER + 1.5
MIDDLE TENN ST + 1

[GOLDENGREEK]

Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS

2008: 5-4 ATS
2009: 5-2 ATS



2010:

Mid Tenn St. *
Utah
Wisconsin
Navy *
Virginia Tech
Florida St. *
Penn St.
South Florida
UCONN
Arkansas
Iowa *

* denotes a team playing a team that won 8 or less games last year

[GOLDENGREEK]

Play on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.

Since 1996.....5-0 100%
PLAY ON: UTAH

[GOLDENGREEK]

PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games

58-36-1, 61.7% since 1980


PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii, West Virginia, Nevada,Auburn,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa, NC State, BC, Oregon



Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite 9-3, 75.0% since 1988

PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa

[GOLDENGREEK]

*** from here on down ..its just bowl trends ********

[GOLDENGREEK]

Stats Matter - A Guide to Handicapping the Bowl Games
by Marc Lawrence on 12/14/2010 7:05 AM
By Marc Lawrence

Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing - preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2010 College Bowl season now upon us it's time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist one simple element is often overlooked and that is how teams are or have been performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats' (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.

As handicappers we know better than most that the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray it's vitally important to look inside the patient before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall or most recently this season...

Air Force - 11-1 ITS this season

Alabama - 11-1 ITS this season

Arizona - 10-2 ITS this season

Arkansas - 9-2-1 ITS this season

Army - 0-4 ITS L4 games season

Auburn - 12-1 ITS this season

Baylor - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

Boise State - 11-1 ITS this season

Boston College - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

BYU - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

Central Florida - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Clemson - 4-7 ITS this season

Connecticut - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

East Carolina -1-4 ITS L5 games season

Florida - held 4 foes season low yards

Florida International - 8-4 ITS this season

Florida State - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

Fresno State - 11-1 ITS this season

Georgia - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

Georgia Tech - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Hawaii - 11-2 ITS this season

Illinois - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

Iowa - 0-3 ITS L3 games season

Kansas State - 0-6 ITS L6 games season

Kentucky - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

LSU -held 3 foes season low yards

Louisville - 8-4 ITS this season

Maryland - 5-7 ITS this season

Miami Fla - 7-0 ITS L7 games season

Miami Oh - 5-0 ITS L5 games season

Michigan - allowed 4 teams season high yards

Michigan State - 10-2 ITS this season

Mid Tennessee State - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

Mississippi State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

Missouri - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Navy - 4-5 ITS L9 games season

Nebraska - held 6 foes 1-2 season low yards

Nevada - 10-3 ITS this season

North Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

NC State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

Northern Illinois - 10-3 ITS this season

Northwestern - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

Notre Dame - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

Ohio State - held 10 foes 1-2 season low yards

Ohio U - 4-8 ITS this season

Oklahoma - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

Oklahoma State - 9-3 ITS this season

Oregon - 11-1 ITS this season

Penn State - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

Pittsburgh - 9-0 ITS L9 games season

San Diego State - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

SMU - 8-1 ITS L9 games season

South Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

South Florida - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

Southern Miss - 9-3 ITS this season

Stanford - 10-2 ITS this season

Syracuse - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

TCU - 12-0 ITS this season

Tennessee - 4-0 ITS L4 games season

Texas A&M - 9-3 ITS this season

Texas El Paso - 1-5 ITS L6 games season

Texas Tech - allowed 3 teams season high yards

Toledo - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

Troy - 8-4 ITS this season

Tulsa - 9-3 ITS this season

Utah - 9-3 ITS this season

Virginia Tech - held 5 foes season low yards

Washington - 3-0 ITS L3 games season

West Virginia - held 6 foes 1-2 low yards

Wisconsin - 10-2 ITS this season

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 539-93-10 ATS since 1980, it's crucial to your success when evaluating a team's chance of winning the yardage wars.

Just another slant on handicapping the Bowl contests. Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

[GOLDENGREEK]

NEW MEXICO BOWL:
UTEP Price: 5-2 SU ATS vs MWC including 3-0 SUATS as dog
BYU 0-5 SU in bowl games when entering off a loss


HUMANITARIAN BOWL
NO ILLINOIS Bowlers off DD loss as DD favs are 4-11 ATS
FRESNO ST Underdog is 10-0 ATS L10 Bulldogs’ bowl games


NEW ORLEANS BOWL
OHIO U 0-4 SU bowl games… Solich: 6-13 SU vs .580 > opp
TROY Sun Belt bowlers off win 6 > points are 6-2-1 ATS


Tuesday, December 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
LOUISVILLE 2-7 ATS as bowlers, including 1-5 ATS off a win
SO MISS Fedora: 5-1 ATS vs .666 < opp off SU and ATS win



Wednesday, December 22
LAS VEGAS BOWL
UTAH 11-2 ATS dog with rest… Whittingham: 7-1 dog > 7
BOISE ST WAC bowlers are 1-6 ATS as DD favorites

[GOLDENGREEK]

Best ACC Bowl Trend – 12-1 ATS dogs off SU loss: Fla St, Ga Tech, NC State

Worst ACC Bowl Trend – 5-10 ATS aft allow < 10 pts last game: Boston College


Best Big Ten Bowl Trend – 12-3 ATS dogs 6 > pts vs opp off SU loss:
Michigan St, Penn St

Worst Big Ten Bowl Trend – 4-12 ATS off DD ATS loss:
Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern



Best Big 12 Bowl Trend – 6-1 ATS off loss of more than 28 points:
Baylor

Worst Big 12 Bowl Trend – 1-7 ATS favs 6 > pts vs opp off ATS loss:
Texas Tech



Best CUSA Bowl Trend – 14-4 ATS off loss 6 > pts: East Carolina

Worst CUSA Bowl Trend – 1-8 ATS dogs 7 < pts off SUATS win: C Florida


Best MAC Bowl Trend – 4-1 ATS favs vs opp off SU fav loss: Toledo

Worst MAC Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS dogs < 7 pts: Ohio U


Best MWC Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS dogs 6 > pts: Utah

Worst MWC Bowl Trend – 1-4 ATS favs vs > .500 opp: San Diego St, TCU


Best PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS as dogs 9 > pts: Washington

Worst PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 2-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss: Arizona


Best SEC Bowl Trend – 9-2 ATS dogs vs opp off SU win: Ark, Kentucky, Tenn

Worst SEC Bowl Trend – 2-8 ATS favs after scoring 40 > pts: Auburn, Ga


Best Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 5-1 ATS dogs off SUATS win: Mid Tenn St

Worst Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 0-2 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS win: FIU


Best INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 8-2 ATS vs opp off ATS loss: Army, N Dame

Worst INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS vs opp off SU win > 7 pts: Navy