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**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 09:49 PM

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/16 - 12/20)

NFL Opening Line Report: Week 15

The Minnesota Vikings are homeless and without their starting quarterback.

By now everyone in the country has seen Fox’s slow motion shots of the Metrodome’s roof collapsing at least three or four times. And, if you haven’t seen the highlights from Minnesota’s game against the Giants yet, let us to be the first to tell you that Tarvaris Jackson is a major downgrade from Brett Favre even with Favre enduring his worst season ever.

The Vikings host the Bears on Monday, so the general consensus is they should have the Metrodome ready to go by then. No line has been released for the game.

Meanwhile, Packers bettors will be left in limbo until the club updates QB Aaron Rodgers’ status on Wednesday or Thursday. His health will be a major factor on this week’s odds. The books haven’t released a line on this one and there are differing opinions about what you can expect.

“With Rodgers, the Packers would be around a 4.5-point underdog and without around a 9-point underdog against the Pats,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino.

Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director, figures this will be the biggest game of the week for the books and expects Rodgers’ availability to have a bigger impact.

“If he’s out, I’m thinking the Pats are around -14.5. If he’s in I’m thinking around -8.”

Either way, the Packers have their work cut out for them against the hottest team in the league. The Pats still have their flaws, though their No. 27-ranked total defense hasn’t been a problem with Tom Brady leading the club to 126 points over the last three weeks.

“The Patriots have created their snowball effect once again,” says Kornegay. “The bettors are all over this team and will continue to support them as long as they continue to cover and their games go over. Right now, they clearly look like the best team, but, it’s mid December. Some other teams will step up by the time we get to mid January. What happened to all our parity?”

Biggest spread of the week – 49ers at Chargers (-9, 44.5)

This is the biggest spread we have on the board for now – though Rodgers’ status could change that. Either way, bettors will continue to ride San Diego’s annual late-season swing with Thursday’s game.

The Chargers rebounded from a loss at home to Oakland to hammer the Chiefs 31-0 as 10-point favorites in Week 14, while the 49ers are only 1-4 outright on the road this season.

Smallest spread of the week – Browns at Bengals (-2, 40)

“This line could come in a bit,” says Greg Sindall, SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker. “The Bengals shouldn’t be favorites against anybody - even the Browns.”

Some books already have this line hovering around -1 or -1.5, so if you’re thinking Browns here, act fast.

Biggest total of the week – Jaguars at Colts (-4.5, 48.5)

With everything else going on this week, this is almost the forgotten game that could end up deciding the AFC South. The Colts are still a game behind Jacksonville, but Peyton Manning got back on track with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions against Tennessee. Still, Indy’s defense has given up at least 28 points four weeks in a row.

“This is a huge game and the Colts score at home,” says Sindall. “If the Jags are going to have a chance, they will have to put points on the board.”

Smallest total of the week – Jets at Steelers (-6, 36)

“We probably could have looked ahead to this week before the season even started and knew the Jets at Steelers game would have the lowest total,” says Sindall.

While that much is true, few would have foreseen New York’s recent offensive slide. The Jets have scored only nine points over the last two weeks.

Trickiest line of the week

Lots to choose from here, but outside of the Aaron Rodgers situation and what would happen if the Metrodome isn’t ready for Monday’s game in Minnesota

Esposito wonders if the Jets are really as bad as they’ve been lately and thinks that line is “slightly higher than it should be and will come down by kickoff.”

Sindall figures there will be movement in the Falcons-Seahawks matchup that currently has Atlanta set as a 6-point favorite on the road with the total at 44.5.

“I think the Falcons line will be on the move,” Sindall says. “They keep winning and they get to play a team from the NFC West so you can be sure the public will be piling on. Get on the Falcons while winning by a touchdown will still be enough.”

Other available Week 15 lines

Bills at Dolphins (-5.5, 41)

Lions at Buccaneers (-6, 42.5)

Cardinals at Panthers (-2.5, 38)

Redskins at Cowboys (-6, 45)

Broncos at Raiders (-6.5, 44)

**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 09:53 PM

NFL
Dunkel

San Francisco at San Diego
The Chargers look to take advantage of a San Francisco team that is coming off a 40-21 win over Seattle and is 0-8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following an ATS win. San Diego is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 16

Game 301-302: San Francisco at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 125.445; San Diego 141.000
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19

Game 303-304: Kansas City at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 131.048; St. Louis 129.490
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 305-306: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.964; Tennessee 127.951
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Under

Game 307-308: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.524; Indianapolis 136.279
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over

Game 309-310: Arizona at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 114.426; Carolina 120.789
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.569; Cincinnati 126.550
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Under

Game 313-314: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.337; Miami 136.973
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5 1/2); Under

Game 315-316: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.006; NY Giants 139.256
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 317-318: Washington at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.803; Dallas 131.135
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6); Under

Game 319-320: Detroit at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 125.814; Tampa Bay 135.634
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-6); Over

Game 321-322: New Orleans at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.157; Baltimore 136.666
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2); Over

Game 323-324: Atlanta at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.493; Seattle 126.776
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Pittsburgh (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.624; Pittsburgh 138.638
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: Denver at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 125.066; Oakland 132.810
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Oakland by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-6 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Green Bay at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.255; New England 146.727
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MONDAY, DECEMBER 20

Game 331-332: Chicago at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 137.110; Minnesota 132.009
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 10:01 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

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Thursday, December 16

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 6) - 12/16/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 19

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KANSAS CITY (8 - 5) at ST LOUIS (6 - 7) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (5 - 8) at TENNESSEE (5 - 8) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
HOUSTON is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (8 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 6) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 9) at CAROLINA (1 - 12) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CAROLINA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 8) at CINCINNATI (2 - 11) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 53-79 ATS (-33.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 6) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 4) at NY GIANTS (9 - 4) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 140-99 ATS (+31.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (5 - 8) at DALLAS (4 - 9) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 10) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DETROIT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) at BALTIMORE (9 - 4) - 12/19/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (11 - 2) at SEATTLE (6 - 7) - 12/19/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (9 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 3) - 12/19/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 83-54 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 42-21 ATS (+18.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 10) at OAKLAND (6 - 7) - 12/19/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-32 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (8 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 2) - 12/19/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 20

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CHICAGO (9 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 8) - 12/20/2010, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 10:05 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, 12/16/2010

SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-27 ATS Away off win by 14+ pts
SAN DIEGO: 15-5 ATS after allowing 6 points or less

Sunday, 12/19/2010

KANSAS CITY at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 17-6 ATS vs. NFC West
ST LOUIS: 24-46 ATS after scoring 14 points or less

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: N/A
TENNESSEE: 5-1 ATS after 5+ losses

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 8-2 OVER when playing with no rest
INDIANAPOLIS: 3-6 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville

ARIZONA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
CAROLINA: 7-0 Under as home favorite

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under after allowing 175+ rushing yards
CINCINNATI: 0-8 ATS as a home favorite

BUFFALO at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 9-0 Under Away after allowing 100 or less passing yards
MIAMI: 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 ATS off road game where both teams scored 24+ points
NY GIANTS: N/A

WASHINGTON at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 3-10 ATS off BB Unders
DALLAS: 10-0 Over L10 wks

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-2 ATS vs. conference
TAMPA BAY: 2-10 ATS in home games

NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 10-2 ATS in non-conference games
BALTIMORE: N/A

ATLANTA at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 14-5 ATS as a favorite
SEATTLE: 5-14 ATS as an underdog

NY JETS at PITTSBURGH, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 6-0 OVER in road games
PITTSBURGH: 83-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

DENVER at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 0-6 ATS off road loss by 14+ points
OAKLAND: 14-4 Under off an Over

GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND, 8:20 PM ET NBC
GREEN BAY: 7-2 ATS off SU loss as a road favorite of 7 or more
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 Over on turf

Monday, 12/20/2010

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
CHICAGO: 1-5 ATS off a home loss
MINNESOTA: 1-7 ATS playing with revenge

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 10:06 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 15

49ers (5-8) @ Chargers (7-6)— San Diego won five of last six games, outscoring opponents 88-23 in second half; they’re 5-2 as home favorite (lost to Pats/Raiders) with home wins by 25-31-8-21-31 points. 49ers are 1-5 in true road games this year (won on neutral field in London)- strange thing is they’ve been favored in five of seven games away from home, despite their crummy record. NFC West road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC West home favorites are 7-5. Underdogs are 1-4 vs spread, the week after playing Seattle. Last four San Diego games stayed under total. Homecoming game for Alex Smith (17-27/241 vs Seattle last week)- he played on same HS team as Reggie Bush.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Rams (6-7)—Who would’ve thought this would be battle of first place teams? Big question is whether Cassel (appendix) is well enough to play, and if so, can he play well? Chiefs won last four games in seldom-played intrastate series, but got crushed in San Diego last week (TY 426-67), as backup QB Croyle is now 0-10 as NFL starter. First-place Rams won four of last five home games, are home for first time in four weeks after 2-1 road trip. Rams didn’t score first half TD in last two games; they’ve got to get better in red zone (39 net points on last 13 RZ drives). AFC West road teams are 7-11 vs spread in non-division games. NFC West home teams are 9-7. Four of last five Chief road games went over the total.

Texans (5-8) @ Titans (5-8)—Houston is first team in NFL history to lose four games in same season where they rallied to tie/take lead after trailing by 14+ points; they blanked Rusty Smith-led Titans 20-0 at home three weeks ago, holding crippled visitors to 162 yards, nine first downs- that was only game this year that Texans held foe under 20 points. Tennessee won eight of last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but they’ve lost last six games overall (1-5 vs. spread), scoring four TDs on last 38 drives. Five of last six Houston games went over total. Titans did four more days to prepare than Houston did, thanks to primetime dates for both last week. AFC South home teams are 6-2 in divisional play.

Eagles (9-4) @ Giants (9-4)— Since 1988, Eagles are 10-1 in second game of season against Giants if they won the first meeting. Don’t think unexpected short work week will be detriment to Giants after uplifting performance Monday night, but Philly won last five series games, beating Big Blue 27-17 (-3) four weeks ago, outrushing Giants 148-61 (TY 392-208). Reid won four of last five series games in Swamp. Over last six games, Giants outsacked opponents 16-1; they’re +6 in turnovers last three games and only allowed one TD on 25 drives in last two games, albeit vs non-contenders. Eagles are 5-1 since their bye, scoring average of 34.7 ppg; Last four Giant games stayed under total; eight of last nine Eagle games went over.

Jaguars (8-5) @ Colts (7-6)—Jags (+6.5) upset Indy 31-28 at home in Week 4, outrushing Colts 174-58; expect them to try more of same here. Jax won five of last six games (6-0 vs. spread-- lost 24-20 @ Giants), running ball for 207-258-234 yards- they converted 21 of last 43 3rd down plays. Jags are 5-4 vs. spread as underdog, 4-2 on road. Colts lost three of last four games, allowing 158.8 rushing ypg; only once in last eight games has Indy won by more than six points. Indy was +2 in turnovers last week, after being -12 in three previous games- they did have three extra days to prepare for this after holding off Titans last week, 30-28. Home teams are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games. Five of last seven Jaguar games went over total.

Cardinals (3-10) @ Panthers (1-12)—Our Gamblers’ Anonymous Game of the Week; if you invest in this game, get professional help. That said, Panthers are 7-3 in series, but all three losses were here at home, as visitor won four of last five in series. Rookie QB Skelton was just 15-38/146 in his first NFL start last week (it was Arizona’s first win in last eight games); his first road start will be played in front of thousands of empty seats. Redbirds are 2-3 as road underdog this year; Panthers are 0-2 as favorite. Carolina lost its last seven games; when was last time a team on 7-game losing skid was favored? Over is 8-3 in last 11 Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Carolina tilts. Average total in last three series games was 50.3, but Warner was playing QB for Cardinals in those games.

Browns (5-8) @ Bengals (2-11)— Cleveland allowed one offensive TD in each of last three games, but has only one TD itself on offense the last two weeks. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 series games, but lost 23-20 (-2) back in Week 4, game that started Bengals on current 10-game tailspin. Cincy outgained Browns 413-295 that day, but turned ball over twice and lost field position by average of 8 yards. Three of last four Bengal losses were by 16+ points. Cleveland is on road for third week in row, most always a bad spot (see Rams last week); they’re 2-5 on road, 3-3-1 as road dog. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Browns lost five of last six visits here, with average total in last three played here 29.3. Wouldn’t risk your money on Delhomme.

Bills (3-10) @ Dolphins (7-6)—Buffalo is 3-2 in last five games after 0-8 start, as they foul up their draft position. Miami is 6-1 on road, 1-5 at home, with only home win 29-17 (+1) in Week 10 vs. Tennessee; Dolphins (-3) won season opener 15-10 in Buffalo, outrushing Bills 132-50, their fourth win in last five series games. Bills lost here last two years, 25-16/38-10. Buffalo is 5-2-1 vs. spread in last eight games; they’re 4-2 as true road underdog this year, with only one loss (38-14 @ Minnesota) in last eight games by more than three points. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC East divisional games, 1-4 if home favorite. Fish scored 10 or less points in four of last six games (five TDs on last 49 drives). Five of last seven games for both teams stayed under total.

Redskins (5-8) @ Cowboys (4-9)— Pokes (-3.5) lost season opener 13-7 at Washington, despite outgaining Skins by 130 yards (Dallas has 12 penalties, two empty red zone trips); Redskins lost five of last six games overall- eight of their 13 games were decided by 5 or less points (underdogs are 7-3-3 vs spread in their ’10 games). Skins lost 12 of last 14 visits here; rumors were flying they almost benched McNabb again late in Tampa game, so tensions have to be high there, plus they cut punter who muffed snap on game-losing missed PAT. Dallas is 5-0 vs spread since Garrett took over, 1-0 as favorite; their last three games were all decided by 3 points. Last ten Cowboy games went over total. Teams are 4-8 week after playing Bucs, despite being favored in eight of the 12 games.

Lions (3-10) @ Bucs (8-5)—Tampa Bay is 8-0 vs losing teams, 0-5 vs winning teams; five of its eight wins are by 3 or less points. Lions are 0-6 on road, 4-2 as road dogs, losing by 5-14-2-8-2-16 points- they’re 8-3 overall as a dog this year. Bucs still in thick of playoff hunt, need this game and Seattle home game next week, since they finish at Superdome. Tampa is 1-1-2 as favorite this year. Bucs won seven of last nine games in what used to be divisional rivalry; Lions lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-3-4 points. NFC South home favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North road dogs are also 7-5-1. Eight of last ten Detroit games went over total. Dogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight Buccaneer games.

Saints (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)—Red-hot defending champs won last six games, scoring 30+ points in last five; they’re underdog for first time this year, against Raven squad playing on short week after dramatic OT win late Monday night. Only red flag on Saint win streak is that last five victims all have losing records. Ravens are 5-1 at home, but ran ball for just 92-43-63 yards in last three games- they were +2 in turnovers Monday, had 18-yard edge in field position, still needed defensive score to win in OT. Keep in mind that in Saints’ three losses, they were -2/-3/-4 in turnovers. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread week after playing the Rams. AFC North home favorites are just 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. Lot of urgency on both sides, since neither team leads their division.

Jets (9-4) @ Steelers (10-3)—Jets have never won in Steel City, losing all seven tries, with five of last six losses there by 11+ points. Jets also haven’t scored TD in last two games (or in any of their four losses)- they’ve been outscored 41-9 in first half of last three games. Jury is out on whether Sanchez can play in bad weather, and also on whether Brunell is still capable backup (or is he just playing because his finances went bad?). Steelers won last four games, but stumbled through last three, scoring two TDs on last 29 drives- their defense scored or directly set up (9-yard game-winning drive in Baltimore) their last three TDs. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total. Jets only have two INTs in last eight games, while Sanchez has thrown 12 in those same eight games.

Falcons (11-2) @ Seahawks (6-7)—Atlanta won last seven games, covered last five; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, but this is their third straight road game, historically a tough spot. All seven Seahawk losses are by 15+ points; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home dogs, with home losses 41-7 to Giants, 42-24 to Chiefs. Seattle is 8-3 in series, winning four of last five, with three wins by 3 or less points, or in OT; average total in last four series games, 58.0. Falcons lost four of five visits here. Teams are 2-7 week after playing the 49ers; favorites are 1-4 vs. spread week after playing Carolina. NFC South road favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC West home underdogs are 6-3. Over is 6-0 in last six Seattle games, 6-2 in Falcons’ last eight games.

Broncos (4-9) @ Raiders (6-7)—Oakland led 38-7 at half of 59-14 (+7.5) trouncing of Denver at Invesco back in Week 7; Raiders had 328 rushing yards in that game, were+3 in turnovers, averaged 8.2 ypa. Hard to imagine anything different this time; Broncos lost four in row, eight of last nine games- they gave up 185-211 rushing yards in last two games (@ Chiefs/@ Cardinals), classic sign of team in tank (they gave up 43 points last week to team starting its #3 QB for first time), and this is Denver’s third straight week on road, historically a soft spot for anyone. Raiders are 4-2 at home (2-2 as HF), with wins by 2-8-30-3 points. Home favorites are just 16-22 vs spread in divisional games this year, 3-3 in AFC West. Four of last five Oakland home games went over total.

Packers (8-5) @ Patriots (11-2)— Fourth road game in five weeks for Packer squad that hasn’t lost a game all year by more than 4 points; they’re 1-1 as underdog, and had scored 14 TDs in 37 drives before last week’s debacle in Detroit. Patriots won last five games, covered last three, winning last two weeks by combined 81-10 against pair of division leaders (Jets/Bears)- they’re 3-2-1 as home favorite, winning in Foxboro by 14-8-3-10-3-42 points. In his last three games, Brady averaged 12.1/9.5/8.2 ypa. Patriots are +12 in turnovers in last four games. Under is 9-4 in Green Bay games this year; last seven Patriot games went over total. Expect Rodgers to play here, meaning if he doesn’t play, no reason to read analysis like this, just bet against Flynn.

Bears (9-4) @ Vikings (5-8)— Home side won seven of last eight series games; Bears lost three in row, seven of last eight visits to Twin Cities, but as I type this, Vikings have no healthy QB’s, which is why game is off board. Game to be played at Gophers’ new outdoor stadium, as Vikings play third straight “home” game in third different stadium; Vikings (-1.5) lost 27-13 at Chicago in first meeting seven weeks ago, as Bears outrushed them 130-70, were +2 in turnovers and won 70.3% of 3rd down plays. Bears had 5-game win streak crushed in snow at home last week; they’re Under is 3-1 in last four Chicago games, 0-3 in Vikings’ last three games. Short week of prep for Vikings after unexpected trip to Detroit, where they were awful in 21-3 loss.

**Udog** · 12-15-2010, 10:10 PM

NFL
Trend Report

Week 15

Thursday, December 16

8:20 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SAN DIEGO
San Francisco is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

Sunday, December 19

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. ST. LOUIS
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis's last 16 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. BALTIMORE
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 14 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 18 games
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Oakland is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 9 of the NY Jets last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

8:20 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Monday December 20

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games at home

**Udog** · 12-16-2010, 10:35 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 16

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What bettors need to know: 49ers at Chargers
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San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (-9, 44.5)

As disappointing and inconsistent as San Diego and San Francisco have been, the Chargers and 49ers are only one-game out of first place in their divisions.

The two hard-to-figure-out teams meet at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium Thursday in a non-conference matchup that presents multiple handicapping quandaries.

Which Charger team will show up?

The Chargers (7-6, 7-6 ATS) seemed to put all the pieces together in November. They opened the month with four straight wins, including a convincing 36-14 win at Indianapolis. Most figured they were revved up for their traditional late-season charge. Then, they surrendered 251 yards rushing in a head-scratching 28-13 home loss to the Raiders.

Of course, they rebounded to thump the Chiefs last week. But the Chargers are about as bipolar as Axel Rose.

Which 49ers team will show up?

Speaking of bipolar, a noticeably calmer Mike Singletary has his resurgent squad back in the hunt in the miserable NFC West. He switched-up his quarterbacks again, with Alex Smith starting ahead of Troy Smith in last week’s win over Seattle. He’s turned the running back duties over to Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon with Frank Gore out for the season.

It’s resulted in four wins in the last six weeks. That’s as stable as things have been in San Francisco (5-8, 5-8 ATS) this season.

Can 49ers overcome major disadvantage at QB?

Philip Rivers is having a monster season. Needless to say, Alex Smith is not.

Smith has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his eight starts this season, although he has gone three straight starts without throwing a pick. He’s coming off his best game of the season. He completed 17 of 27 passes for 255 yards and three scores with no interceptions against Seattle. However, no one is comparing the Seahawks’ defense to the Chargers. San Diego owns the No. 1 pass defense in the league.

Rivers, meanwhile, has been putting up huge numbers, but he’s also been interception prone, having thrown an interception in seven of his last eight games.

The Line

The Chargers opened as 9-point favorites. The line was bet down to 8.5 at some outlets as of Wednesday. But there were still plenty of 9s and even a few 9.5s available.

San Francisco’s been on a nice underdog run, going 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 games as the underdog, including a 6-2-2 ATS mark as a road dog.

The Chargers, however, have been extremely impressive as a home favorite. They are 22-6 as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points in their last 28 games in that situation.

The Total

The total opened at 44.5 and had seen very little movement as of Wednesday afternoon. Disciplined shoppers probably can find a 45 out there by kickoff, which is a significant number.

The Chargers are scoring 27.2 and allowing 19.5 points per game. The 49ers are scoring 18.7 and allowing 21.5 points per game.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor, with temperatures in the mid-50s and only a slight chance of precipitation.

The teams have not met since San Diego’s 48-19 win over the Niners in 2006.

Injury Report

Chargers: Tight end Antonio Gates (foot) is expected to miss Thursday’s game. Gates was inactive last week against Kansas City and was extremely limited in practice this week. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson is expected to play with a calf injury.

49ers: Inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Takeo Spike, the team’s top two tacklers, were wearing club-like casts on their right hands this week. Willis missed Monday and Tuesday’s practices, and Spikes sat out Monday. But both are expected to play.

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**Udog** · 12-16-2010, 10:38 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 16

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Tips and Trends
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San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers [NFL NETWORK | 8:20 PM ET]

NINERS: San Francisco is coming off arguably their best game of the season as well, a 40-21 SU win over Seattle. The Niners are in the exact same situation as the Chargers, a must win scenario. San Francisco is 5-8 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Niners are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this year. San Francisco is 2-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Alex Smith was brilliant being back in the starting lineup. Smith threw 3 TD's without an INT last week. Between Smith and new starting RB Brian Westbrook, the 49ers have a revitalized offense. Defensively, San Francisco is allowing 21.5 PPG and 327 YPG this season. The 49ers are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games as the listed underdog. San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. The 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The 49ers are 5-21-3 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Niners are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a SU win.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games played in December.

Key Injuries - LB Patrick Willis (hand) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

CHARGERS: (-9, O/U 45) San Diego is coming off their best performance of the season, a 31-0 SU drubbing of Kansas City. The Chargers are in a must win scenario for the rest of the season, so they will have to continue their stellar play tonight. San Diego is 7-6 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Chargers are 5-2 both SU and ATS this year. In fact, San Diego has had the exact same result both SU and ATS in each game this year. The Chargers are averaging 27.2 PPG this year, 3rd best in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers is having an outstanding season, throwing for more than 3,850 YDS and 26 TD's this year. RB Mike Tolbert has brought some physicality to the Chargers, as he's rushed for 10 TD's and nearly 700 YDS this season. Defensively, San Diego is allowing a league low 265 YPG this season. San Diego has held 3 of their past 4 opponents to 14 PTS or fewer. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. The Chargers are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in December. San Diego is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games.

Key Injuries - T Marcus McNeil (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

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**Spark** · 12-16-2010, 05:42 PM

***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL *****
________________________________________________

_____________________________

*** SANS PLAYOFFS! ***
----------------------
As disappointing and inconsistent as San Diego and San Francisco have been, the Chargers and 49ers are only one-game out of first place in their divisions. The two hard-to-figure-out teams meet at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium Thursday night in a non-conference matchup that presents multiple handicapping quandaries. Coming into the year both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers were expected to win their respective divisions. With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, one has to wonder if either will even make the playoffs.

San Diego trails Kansas City by one game following last week's 31-0 demolition of the Chiefs and will likely need to win out, which may not be a problem as they are nine-point favorites this week and have lost only one of their last 20 December games. For 5-8 San Francisco, they should thank their lucky stars that they play in the NFC West as they too are just one game out of first place.

The 49ers have been on a nice underdog run, going 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 games as the underdog, including a 6-2-2 ATS mark as a road dog. The Chargers, however, have been extremely impressive as a home favorite. They are 22-6 as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points in their last 28 games in that situation. The total opened at 44.5 and had seen very little movement as of Wednesday afternoon. Disciplined shoppers probably can find a 45 out there by kickoff, which is a significant number.

The Chargers are scoring 27.2 and allowing 19.5 points per game. The 49ers are scoring 18.7 and allowing 21.5 points per game. Weather shouldn’t be a factor, with temperatures in the mid-50s and only a slight chance of precipitation. The teams have not met since San Diego’s 48-19 win over the Niners in 2006.

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*** THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***

SAN FRANCISCO (5-8) @ SAN DIEGO (7-6)
Kickoff, 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Chargers -9 O/U 44.5
--------------------------------------------------
The San Diego Chargers have made strong late-season finishes an art form in recent years, while the San Francisco 49ers are beginning to earn a reputation as a team that does its best work over the second half as well. The two also share a similar predicament heading into a Thursday night interconference clash at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium, with the loser of this Week 15 tilt likely faced with a major uphill climb in regards to making the playoffs.

Both the Chargers and 49ers presently sit one game out of first place in their respective divisions entering Thursday's matchup, with each team digging itself into a sizeable hole it's yet to completely crawl out of. San Diego has turned it on following a thoroughly disappointing 2-5 beginning to the season, having recorded victories in five of its last six contests, while San Francisco rebounded from a dreadful 0-5 start by winning five of eight games since.

The Chargers closed the gap on front-running Kansas City in the AFC West with an authoritative 31-0 home triumph over the short-handed Chiefs a week ago, in which their top-ranked defense yielded a paltry 67 total yards and five first downs in a suffocating display. The five first downs tied a franchise record for the least allowed in a single game, while the yardage total was the second- fewest in club history. The resounding result improved San Diego to a sparkling 19-1 in December games since 2006, with the lone blemish a startling 28-13 loss to visiting Oakland in Week 13.

With road dates at doormats Cincinnati and Denver only left on the regular- season slate, the Chargers should have an opportunity to claim a fifth consecutive AFC West title if they can get past the resurgent 49ers and the Chiefs lose one of their three remaining games. San Diego would edge Kansas City in a tie-breaker if the rivals wind up deadlocked and it wins out by virtue of a superior conference record. The Chiefs will visit St. Louis this weekend before closing out with home tests against Tennessee and Oakland, none of whom presently own a positive record.

San Francisco also gained some ground in the NFC West race this past Sunday after throttling skidding Seattle by a 40-21 score at Candlestick Park. With St. Louis also suffering a loss in Week 13, the Niners now have only one fewer win than the Seahawks and Rams in the battle for the division's top spot and travel to St. Louis for a high-stakes showdown following Thursday's bout.

A quarterback change and a submissive Seattle defense enabled San Francisco, one of the league's lowest-scoring teams this year, to register its highest point output of the season. In his first action since Oct. 24, former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith delivered one of the best performances of his checkered career, throwing for 255 yards and three touchdowns without an interception on 17-for-27 passing. Smith will try to build off that impressive showing and attempt to direct San Francisco to back-to-back wins for the first time in 2010. Prevailing on the road has been a problem for the Niners, though, as they'll be heading into Qualcomm Stadium with a 1-5 ledger as the guest this season. The Chargers sport a 5-2 mark at home, with four of those victories coming by a margin of 21 points or greater.

• SERIES HISTORY
----------------
The 49ers own a 6-5 advantage in their all-time regular-season series with the Chargers, but have lost each of their last two meetings with San Diego. The Bolts routed the Niners, 48-19, when the teams last met, at Candlestick Park in 2006. The Chargers took a 20-17 overtime decision when the teams last squared off in San Diego, in 2002. San Francisco's last win in the series came in 2000 on the road.

In addition to the regular-season series, the teams have met once in the postseason, a 49-26 Niners rout in Super Bowl XXIX from Miami. Chargers head coach Norv Turner, was offensive coordinator with the 49ers in 2006, is 1-3 in his career against San Francisco, with all of those meetings coming during his tenure with the Washington Redskins from 1994-2000. The Niners' Mike Singletary will be meeting both Turner and the Chargers for the first time as a head coach.

• WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------
San Francisco had been a run-first offense built around the considerable talents of versatile back Frank Gore for most of this year, but the season- ending fractured hip the two-time Pro Bowler sustained in a Week 12 win at Arizona has caused a slight shift in philosophy. The injury helps explain Singletary's decision to re-insert Smith (1809 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT), a more polished passer than counterpart Troy Smith (1023 passing yards, 4 TD, 3 INT), into a starting role prior to the Seattle game, and the move has certainly paid off in the short term.

Alex Smith connected with both tight end Vernon Davis (49 receptions, 6 TD) and running back Brian Westbrook (199 rushing yards, 11 receptions, 2 total TD) on long touchdown throws last week while also developing a rapport with Josh Morgan (32 receptions, 2 TD), with the young wideout compiling a season-high 82 receiving yards and a score on three catches in the wake of the switch. Replacing Gore's running skills has been tough, as the brittle Westbrook and rookie Anthony Dixon (165 rushing yards, 2 TD) have combined for only 147 yards in two games since the Niners' top back went down. Dixon received the bulk of the carries against the Seahawks, while Westbrook contributed a team best of six catches and 87 receiving yards.

Alex Smith figures to draw a tougher assignment than last Sunday's task, as the Chargers have permitted league-lows of 265.0 total yards and 173.4 passing yards per game and are tied for third in the NFL with 38 sacks, a concern for a San Francisco offensive line that will again be without stalwart left tackle Joe Staley (fractured fibula). Shaun Phillips (46 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 INT) has been a pass-rushing terror from his outside linebacker spot all year long, with inside starter Kevin Burnett (75 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT) and nose tackle Antonio Garay (41 tackles, 4 sacks) lending a strong push from the interior.

The front seven has been backed up from solid play from cornerbacks Antoine Cason (57 tackles, 4 INT, 16 PD) and Quentin Jammer (35 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD), while Burnett and fellow inside linebacker Brandon Siler (32 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) head up a group that's surrendering just 91.6 rushing yards per contest (4th overall) and limited Kansas City's potent ground attack to 48 yards last week. Siler enters Thursday's test as a question mark, though, after aggravating a rib injury against the Chiefs.

• WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------
San Diego's been excellent on this side of the ball as well, possessing a dangerous offense that ranks second in the NFL in total yards (399.6 ypg) and passing yards (286.2 ypg) and is scoring at a stellar 30.1 points per game clip at home. The undeniable catalyst has been quarterback Philip Rivers (3868 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT), a fiery leader who's been both accurate (66.1 percent completion rate) and tough during an All-Pro caliber campaign, and the standout signal-caller gets ample support from a good collection of pass- catchers that may or may not include leading receiver Antonio Gates (50 receptions, 782 yards, 10 TD) this week. The difference-making tight end has been dealing with a painful plantar fascia tear in his right foot for much of the season and sat out the Kansas City game, and his status for Thursday is very much up in the air.

Rivers will still have plenty of capable options with or without Gates, as two-time 1,000-yard receiver Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd (35 receptions, 6 TD) are two big and fast targets on the outside and diminutive running back Darren Sproles (215 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 4 TD) is a terrific open-field runner and an integral part of the passing game. He's one of three quality backs on the roster along with converted fullback Mike Tolbert (691 rushing yards, 10 TD, 25 receptions) and promising rookie Ryan Mathews (447 rushing yards, 3 TD, 16 receptions), a duo which teamed up for 131 rushing yards and two scores in last week's rout of the Chiefs.

Rivers will be airing out against a San Francisco stop unit that's just 23rd in pass efficiency defense this season but came up with four interceptions of Seattle triggerman Matt Hasselbeck on Sunday, with free safety Dashon Goldson (66 tackles, 1 INT) returning one of those picks for a touchdown. The Niners also have the ability to create pressure, as outside linebackers Travis LaBoy (26 tackles, 5 sacks), Ahmad Brooks (22 tackles, 4 sacks) and Parys Haralson (29 tackles, 4 sacks) are all proven pass rushers and end Justin Smith (54 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is an outstanding all-around lineman.

The Niners' best skill is stopping the run, however, with playmaking inside linebacker Patrick Willis (108 tackles, 5 sacks), Smith and sturdy nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (33 tackles) the headliners of a pack that's allowing a respectable 3.7 yards per rush attempt on the season. Veteran inside linebacker Takeo Spikes (91 tackles, 8 PD) has done his part as well, ranking second on the club in tackles and snaring three interceptions from his post opposite Willis.

• **** NOTES
---------------
The Niners are three games under .500 but just one game back in the NFC West. With the division leaders meeting on the final week of the season – guaranteeing a seventh win for one of them – Singletary’s men don’t have much margin for error. The problem is that tonight’s hosts are riding in the same boat known as ‘Desperation’. The Chargers kept themselves in the AFC West race with a shutout win over the QB-less Chiefs but our Stat/Systems Sports database has a thing about squads in this scenario, noting: teams off a division shutout win in which they beat the spread by 19 or more points are just 6-19 ATS when facing a non-division foe off a SU win.

It also warns us that the Chargers are just 3-9 ATS versus a non-division opponent off a double-digit SU win while the 49ers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of 4 or more points versus AFC opposition. Last week San Fran backers relied on HC Mike Singletary’s terrific ATS record when coming off a loss to bring home the bacon. This week they’ll count on his perfect 7-0 ATS log as a dog versus a foe off a win of 13 or more points to spread the cheer.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Diego by 10; O/U 42
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Diego -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Diego -11.89
______________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
---------------------------
--SAN DIEGO is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--SAN DIEGO is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.6, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 21.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 22.1, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO is 48-25 UNDER (+20.3 Units) in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.4, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 4*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 33-14 UNDER (+17.4 Units) in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 22.9, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
----------------------------------
--SAN FRANCISCO is 54-78 against the 1rst half line (-31.8 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.3, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 5*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 12-29 against the 1rst half line (-19.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.0, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-24 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.4, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------
--SAN DIEGO is 46-22 OVER (+21.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 12.9, OPPONENT 11.0 - (Rating = 4*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 34-13 OVER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.3, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--SAN FRANCISCO is 30-11 OVER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.6, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.1, Opponent 6.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-41).

--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.7, Opponent 18.1 (Total points scored = 38.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).

--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(50-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.2, Opponent 10.5 (Total first half points scored = 25.7)

The situation's record this season is: (7-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (82-64).

**Udog** · 12-17-2010, 07:30 AM

NFL

Week 15

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)

Why Bills cover: They are 6-1-1 ATS since their Week 6 bye and are averaging 26.8 points per game on the road during that stretch.

Why Dolphins cover: The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Miami. The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two clubs.

Total (41): The over is 4-1 in the Bills' last five road games and 10-3-1 in the Dolphins' last 14 home games.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

Why Browns cover: They're 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Colt McCoy, who’s much less turnover-prone than Jake Delhomme, is likely to return from his ankle injury.

Why Bengals cover: Quarterback Carson Palmer is 5-0 straight up at home against Cleveland during his career.

Total (40): The under is 4-1 in the last five times the Browns visited the Bengals.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)

Why Lions cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Bucs and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa Bay. The banged-up Bucs defense will be without Cody Grimm, Aqib Talib, Quincy Black and Gerald McCoy.

Why Buccaneers cover: The Lions typically struggle away from home and have only scored more than 20-points once in their last six games.

Total (42.5): The over is 8-2 in the Lions' last 10 games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Why Jaguars cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Indianapolis. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.

Why Colts cover: Peyton Manning, who is 13-5 straight up in his career against Jacksonville, will try and prevent the Jags from clinching the AFC South on his home turf.

Total (48.5): The over is 5-1 in the last six matchups between these two sides.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Carolina. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups between these two sides while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Panthers cover: Last year they piled up 270 yards on the ground against Arizona and the Cards are allowing 143.3 yards per game rushing this season.

Total (38): Neither team is capable of moving the ball on offense. This could be a battle of field goal kickers.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

Why Saints cover: Baltimore has struggled to cover the spread at home this season. The Ravens once heralded rushing attack is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season.

Why Ravens cover: They tend to step up against powerful offensive teams, having covered against Houston, Pittsburgh and Denver this season.

Total (43.5): Baltimore’s defense is not what it once was and the Saints' offense is one of the best in the league.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5)

Why Eagles cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the G-Men and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to New York. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Why Giants cover: They have the speed on defense to contain Michael Vick and enough offense to exploit an Eagles defense that is allowing close to 24-points per game.

Total (46): The under is 11-3 in the last 14 games in New York between these two division rivals.

Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams (+1)

Why Chiefs cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Matt Cassel is likely to return from his appendectomy.

Why Rams cover: Steven Jackson could rack up big yardage on the ground against a Kansas City defense that has allowed 368 yards rushing in their past two games.

Total (): The over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these two clubs.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6)

Why Redskins cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Cowboys cover: They are perfect ATS since Jason Garrett took over as the head coach and are averaging 26.3 points per game with Jon Kitna at quarterback.

Total (45): Washington and Dallas combined for just 17 points the last time they met and the under in 4-0 in the series’ last four contests.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1)

Why Texans cover: Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 matchups. Their only win in the last seven weeks was against Tennessee, who they shut out 20-0 as 5-point favorites.

Why Titans cover: Houston's already terrible defense will be without defensive end Mario Williams who was put on injured reserve this week with a sports hernia.

Total (47.5): The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tennessee.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+6)

Why Falcons cover: Matt Ryan is averaging almost 250 passing yards with 13 touchdowns during their seven-game winning streak while Matt Hasselbeck has thrown eight interceptions in his last three games.

Why Seahawks cover: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Atlanta hasn't won in Seattle since 1997.

Total (44.5): The over is 3-0-1 in the Falcons' last four road games and 4-1-1 in the Seahawks' last six home games.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Why Jets cover: Pittsburgh is dominant against the run but their 23rd ranked pass defense can be beat and the Jets have the wide receivers to do it.

Why Steelers cover: The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Mark Sanchez continues to look overmatched at times and New York's offense has only managed nine points in their last two games combined.

Total (36): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Why Broncos cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Oakland. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games between the two sides and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Why Raiders cover: Kyle Orton has struggled mightily under interim coach Eric Studesville and now has a sore throwing arm.

Total (44): The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (NA)

Why Packers cover: The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Green Bay has allowed just 53 points over its last six games.

Why Patriots cover: Aaron Rodgers suffered his second concussion of the season last week and if he is unable to go, Matt Flynn will start at quarterback for Green Bay.

Total (NA): Under is 7-0 in the Packers' last seven road games.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Why Bears cover: With both Brett Favre and Tarvaris Jackson injured, rookie Joe Webb is likely to start at quarterback for Minnesota.

Why Vikings cover: The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Minnesota.

Total (NA): Neither team has a spectacular offense and with the Vikings down to a third-string quarterback, this game could play under.

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**Udog** · 12-18-2010, 11:24 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 19

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NFL weather report: Rainy day for the Raiders
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Last week had some of the worst weather for football in a long time. What does Week 15’s forecast have in store for NFL bettors this Sunday? Here’s a look at the weather this weekend:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 39.5)

The forecast in Miami is calling for cloudy skies with a chance of isolated thunder showers in the area. Winds will pick up early in the day but slow down in the afternoon. Game-time temperature is expected to be in the mid 70s.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-6.5, 43)

Rain is in the forecast in Oakland, with showers starting Saturday and continuing all weekend. The field at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum could be a mess by the time these teams are through. Winds are expected to reach up to 20 mph, cooling game-time temps into the high 40s.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (N/A)

With the Metrodome falling apart at the seams, the Vikings and Bears are forced to play at TCF Bank Stadium, where the Minnesota Golden Gophers call home. Snow has been falling on Minneapolis this week and is expected to make an appearance on Monday Night Football. Game-time temperatures are expected to drop into the low 20s.

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**Udog** · 12-18-2010, 11:26 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 19

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NFL total bias: Week 15 over/under picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I didn’t expect Brett Favre to go out like this.

He obviously didn’t either and really, waving the checkered flag on his drama-filled career is probably premature at this point. But the end has to be near.

The streak is finally over and it’s unclear whether Favre will be healthy enough to play again this season – or ever, for that matter.

But what’s been lost in the ESPN montages, the weeping analysts, the Metrodome roof falling in, is the fact that Favre has effectively played the Vikings out of the playoffs while tarnishing his already-suspect reputation with Jenn Sterger’s sexual harassment allegations.

I’m not saying that Favre is the only reason for Minnesota’s slide this year (major injuries and terrible coaching also played a major role) but his mere presence in the locker room created major problems with offensive game planning from the get go.

When Favre begrudgingly rejoined the team near the end of training camp there was no way he should have been given as much control or influence on the offense as he had. With limited receiving options, the Vikings should have leaned on “All Day”, every day.

Instead, they got caught up in the old gunslinger’s last stand and he threw six interceptions in three weeks before the bye, which pretty much put the writing on the wall.

Now they’re just playing out the schedule while Favre’s status, both on and off the field, is up in the air. Roger Goodell says he plans to announce his ruling on the whole Sterger fiasco over the next week.

If you checked out Deadspin.com’s coverage of the situation, there seems to be fairly damning evidence stacked up against No. 4. Goodell needs to put Favre’s mystique to the side here and do the right thing – come down on him hard.

Will that happen? I doubt it. This is Brett Favre we’re talking about here, right?

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+9, 33)

With Favre out, at least for now, and Tarvaris Jackson on the injured reserve, the Vikings are forced to go with rookie Joe Webb under center, with Patrick Ramsay coming out of retirement to back him up.

Not exactly the ideal situation against a Bears defense that allows the third-fewest points in the league and is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Patriots at home last week. The Vikes will obviously look to establish the running game, but Chicago ranks third against the rush this season.

After the Metrodome roof fell in, this week’s Monday night game will be played outdoors at the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium, adding another wrinkle to the contest. Yet another wrinkle is that no booze will be served to the hometown fans, complying with NCAA regulations. Ouch, that's just rubbing salt in the wounds.

Pick: Under

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 43.5)

Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offense get all the ink, but the club’s defense has quietly put together a terrific season. New Orleans ranks sixth in the league in total defense and is fifth against the pass.

The Saints can be run on and you have to think Baltimore will start on the ground and look for play-action plays downfield if they can get something going. The Ravens gave up 28 points in a win at Houston last week and will bounce back with a better defensive effort at home.

Pick: Under

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 48.5)

Game of the Week here. The Colts can’t win unless they put a ton of points on the board, while the Jags look like they’re ready to keep pace in a shootout.

Word out of Indy’s camp is that Austin Collie looks like he’s ready to return this week, which would be a huge boost for the Colts attack. In eight games, he has 50 catches for 562 yards and six touchdowns.

Jacksonville just put 38 points on the board against the Raiders, marking the third time over the last six games that the club managed to crack the 30-point plateau. Meanwhile, they have now played over the total in six of their last seven while Indy has played over in five of its last six.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 21-22

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**Udog** · 12-18-2010, 11:29 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 19

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Patriots
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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (OTB)

The Green Bay Packers got a glimpse of life without quarterback Aaron Rodgers last week and it was not a pretty sight.

It could be even uglier this week if Rodgers is unable to play when the Packers travel to New England on Sunday night to take on the surging Patriots.

Cheesehead ache

Rodgers suffered his second concussion of the season in last week's 7-3 loss at Detroit, a defeat that could have serious ramifications on the playoff hopes of Green Bay (8-5, 7-6 ATS).

The Packers have a killer schedule to close the season that includes games against the Patriots, New York Giants and NFC North-leading Chicago Bears - teams that sport a collective 28-11 record.

A decision on Rodgers' status is not expected to be made by Saturday at the earliest. He also suffered a concussion at Washington on Oct. 10 but returned the following week. If Rodgers can’t go, Matt Flynn will get the start.

Rodgers has not missed a game since taking over as the starter in 2008 and the Packers can ill afford his absence if they hope to keep pace with a New England juggernaut that is averaging a league-best 31.9 points per game.

Winning down Pats

The Patriots (11-2, 8-4-1 ATS) have won five straight games en route to clinching a playoff berth and tying the Atlanta Falcons for the league’s best record.

New England is averaging 39.2 points per game during the winning streak that includes victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets and Chicago Bears.

The last two wins have been among the more impressive of the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots outscored the Jets and Bears – a pair of nine-win teams – by a combined score of 81-10.

Tom Brady has moved to the front of the league’s MVP race during that stretch. He has thrown 29 touchdowns against just four interceptions on the season and has not been picked off in eight games.

Despite playing on a snowy field and throwing in winds that gusted up to 50 mph at times, Brady carved up the Bears last week, throwing for 369 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Deion Branch had eight receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown and Wes Welker added eight catches for 115 yards as New England did the Packers a favor and kept them within one game of the Bears in the NFC North.

Frosty Foxboro

That offense will pose a stiff test for a Green Bay defense that has allowed an NFL-low 189 points on the season. Not to mention New England is 6-0 at home this season and Brady owns the league record, having registered 26 consecutive regular-season home victories.

It’s not exactly the type of environment for Flynn to make his first career start. He has attempted just 46 passes in three years, 26 of which came in the loss to the Lions. Flynn completed 15 of them for 177 yards and an interception.

The Packers typically have an edge on most opponents when it comes to winter-weather games. That won’t be the case against New England, which is an NFL-best 19-1at home in December since 2002.

Weather

The skies over Gillette Stadium will be cloudy Sunday night with winds blowing up to 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 20s with a 20 percent chance of precipitation.

Trends

- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in December.
- Under is 7-0 in Packers last seven road games.
- Over is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 games overall.
- Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

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**pm530** · 12-19-2010, 04:21 AM

NFL
Tips and Trends

Sunday, December 19

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants [FOX | 1:00 PM ET]

EAGLES: Philadelphia has won 5 of their past 6 games, and appear to be the team to beat in the NFC. The Eagles are 9-4 SU and 6-7 ATS overall this year. The Eagles are 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road this year. The Eagles are 1-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Michael Vick is the likely league MVP this year, as he's been simply dynamic. Vick has a total of 24 TD's this year, against only 4 INT's. Besides a dynamic passing game, RB LeSean McCoy has rushed for 970 YDS and 7 TD's this season. The Eagles are averaging 28.8 PPG this year, 2nd best in the NFL. Defensively, Philadelphia has given up at least 24 PTS in each of their past 3 games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in December. The Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed road underdog. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on fieldturf.

Eagles are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - WR DeSean Jackson (foot) is probable.

Projected Score: 27

GIANTS: (-3, O/U 46) New York has revenge on their minds, as they lost by double digits to Philadelphia earlier this season. The Giants are 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS overall this year. New York is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season. First place in the NFC East is on the line for today's game. New York averages nearly 150 rushing YPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. RB's Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have combined for more than 1,800 YDS and 16 TD's this season. The Giants are averaging 25.3 PPG this year, 7th best in the NFL. Defensively, New York has allowed just 7 and 3 PTS respectively in their past 2 games. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. New York is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. The Giants are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games overall. New York is 4-10 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Giants are 3-8 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games against the NFC East.

Key Injuries - DE Justin Tuck (ribs) is probable.

Projected Score: 28 (OVER-Total of the Day)

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

SAINTS: New Orleans is one of the hottest teams in the NFl, as they've won their past 6 games SU. As a result, the Saints are 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS overall this year. As great as the Saints have been this year, they still trail Atlanta in the NFC South standings. The Saints have played their best football away from home, where they are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS this season. New Orleans will be playing their first game of the season as the listed underdog tonight. The Saints are averaging 25.4 PPG this year, including 5 consecutive games scoring at least 30 PTS. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 3,855 YDS this season, with 28 TD's against 18 INT's. Brees has had amazing accuracy this season, as he's completing 69% of his passes this year. WR Marquis Colston has 921 receiving YDS and 7 TD's this year. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing just 18.5 PPG, 5th fewest in the league. The Saints are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Saints are 1-6 ATS last 7 games played in December.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20

RAVENS: (-1, O/U 43.5) Baltimore is coming off an OT win over the Texans on Monday Night Football last week. The Ravens have had a short week to prepare for the defending Super Bowl champions. The Ravens are fighting for a playoff berth, as they are 9-4 SU this year. Baltimore is also 6-6-1 ATS overall this season. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS at home this season. WR Anquan Boldin had a team high 811 receiving YDS this season, along with 7 TD's. RB Ray Rice has rushed for nearly 900 YDS this season. For the year, the Ravens are averaging 22.6 PPG. Defensively, Baltimore is allowing just 17.6 PPG this season, 4th best in the NFL. This proud defense was exhausted last week in the 2nd half, so they will be anxious to make amends tonight. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Baltimore is 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games as the listed home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on fieldturf.

Ravens are 1-7 ATS last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Under is 15-3 last 18 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/16 - 12/20)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/16 - 12/20)

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