The Bum's BEST BETS Week # 15 NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/11 - 11/15)

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Packers, Patriots meet for Sunday Night Football betting


The Green Bay Packers are an NFL second-best in scoring differential at plus 117 points. They also haven’t lost a game by more than four points.

But the Packers are in trouble this week traveling to Foxboro to face 11-2 New England on Sunday night (5:20 PT on NBC).

The Patriots own the best scoring differential at plus 139 points and haven’t lost a regular-season home game in more than two years.

Oddsmakers have yet to put a line on the matchup because of the uncertain condition of Aaron Rodgers due to a concussion he suffered last Sunday against Detroit. Before the Packers-Lions matchup, the Las Vegas Hilton had an early line last week of New England minus 4 ½ against the Packers.

The odds are going to move much higher as Rodgers is not likely to play. He would be replaced by third-year backup Matt Flynn who has never started in the NFL.

Flynn, 25, has thrown only 46 passes in his pro career. He was 15-of-26 for 177 yards and sacked twice replacing Rodgers last week in Green Bay’s 7-3 road loss to Detroit. The Packers were seven-point favorites with a 45 ½ total. It was Green Bay’s second loss in its last three games.

Flynn threw four touchdown passes for LSU in winning MVP honors against Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 7, 2008.

Former Texas Tech star Graham Harrell would be Flynn’s backup. Harrell has been on Green Bay’s practice squad. He’s never played in the NFL.

Rodgers had accounted for 12 touchdowns in his previous four games until facing the Lions.

New England has won five in a row, including beating the Jets 45-3 as four-point home favorites and the Bears 36-7 as three-point road ‘chalk’ during the last two weeks.

The Patriots, however, rate 27th in total defense and are second-from-the-bottom in pass defense giving up 266.2 yards per game through the air.

Still, thanks to an MVP-type season from Tom Brady, the Patriots can clinch the AFC East Division title with a victory and a loss by the New York Jets at Pittsburgh.

Brady has thrown 19 touchdown passes with no interceptions during the last eight games. He has tossed two or more touchdowns with no interceptions in his last six games, tying the late Don Meredith for the longest streak in league history. Brady hasn’t been intercepted in his last 268 attempts, 40 shy of Bernie Kosar’s NFL record.

Another impressive feat is New England having won 26 consecutive games at home with Brady under center. The Patriots are 39-9 in December since Bill Belichick became their head coach in 2000.

Oh, yes, the Patriots are 21-1 in their last 22 regular-season matchups versus NFC opponents. This is what Green Bay is up against as it tries to make the playoffs. The Packers trail Chicago by one game in the NFC North and are a game behind the New York Giants for the final wild-card spot.

Green Bay finishes its regular season with home games against the Giants and Bears. The Packers rank No. 1 in fewest points allowed yielding 14.5 a game. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in any of their past six games.

The ‘under’ has cashed in Green Bay’s last seven road contests. The ‘over,’ though, has cashed in six of New England’s last seven games at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ also has cashed in 13 of the Patriots’ last 16 overall games.

This is Green Bay’s first visit to New England since 2002. The Patriots blanked the Packers, 35-0, at Lambeau Field in 2006 in the previous meeting. Green Bay hasn’t been shut out since.

There’s a 60 percent chance of rain or snow with temperatures in the upper 20’s-to-low 30’s and 13 mph winds.

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Tech Trends - Week 15
December 16, 2010


SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO (Thursday, December 16)...Norv’s time of year, as Bolts 22-10-1 vs. line from 8th week in reg. season onward since ‘07. Norv 5-1 in role TY. Singletary, however, 9-2 his last 11 as dog (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Norv, based on team trends.

KANSAS CITY at ST. LOUIS... Despite loss at Saints, Rams have still covered 9 of last 12, including 4 of last 5 at Dome. Chiefs "over" their four of last five on road, and Rams "over" 3-2 last 5 after extended "under" spell for Spagnuolo prior (15-8-1 "under" previous 24). Tech edge-slight to Rams and "over, based on team and totals" trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE... Titans got the back door of back door covers on Thursday vs. Colts, their first after 5 straight spread losses, but are still only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on board. Houston only 2-7 vs. number itself last 9 on board, but one of those was a 20-0 win over Titans (with Rusty Smith at QB). Kubiak has now also won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Fisher after Titans had won and covered previous five meetings. Kubiak also "over" 11-4 last 15 since late LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and Kubiak "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS... Interestingly, no team has swept both pointspread decisions any season between these two since the current AFC South wad formed in 2002, and these two were placed together. Jags won and covered first meeting TY. Jags, however, have covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 meetings at Indy in what had been a visitor-oriented series until the first game this season (road team had covered last 6). Colts no covers last 3 at home TY or 4 of last 5 overall after allowing Titans in the back door on Thursday. Del Rio has covered his last 6 games in ‘10. "Overs" 5 -1 last 6 meetings, Jags "over" 9-4 last 13 since late LY, Colts "over" 12-5 last 17 reg.-season games after 30-28 win at Tennessee. Tech edge-Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA... Panthers 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-6 vs. number as host TY. Cards "over" 8-4-1 TY and 10-4-1 last 14 since late ‘09, while Panthers "over" 4-0-1 last 5 after extended "under" run prior. Hard to believe this was an NFC playoff game just two years ago. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI... Cincy 2-8 vs. line last 10 in 2010. Browns have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Browns "over" 9-5 last 14 since late ‘09. Mangini 8-6-1 vs. line away for Browns since LY. If Marvin Lewis favored note 0-3 record in role at home TY, 0-9 as home chalk since ‘09. Tech edge-Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI... Dolphins continue formful pattern, 2-4 vs. line at home TY, now 5-14 last 19 vs. spread as host for Sparano. Miami also "over" 11-3 last 14 as host. Sparano, however, is 4-1 SU and vs. line against Bills. Bills also "over" 4-1 as visitor TY. Tech edge-"Over" and Bills, based on Dolphins’ home trends.

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS... Birds dominating lately, winning and covering last 5 meetings. Surprisingly, Andy Reid 0-2 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since LY in what was once a very good role for him. Reid "over" 9-4 TY and 21-10 last 31 on board since late ‘08. Coughlin "over" 17-11 since ‘09. Tech edge-Eagles and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS... Jerry Jones has covered five straight since Jason Garrett was promoted to HC role. Meanwhile, The Shan has lost 5 of last 6 TY (2-4 vs. line in those games). Skins have covered 6 of last 8 meetings, and last four "under" in series. Although Dallas "over" last 9 in 2010. Tech edge-Cowboys and "over," based on recent trends.

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY... Former NFC Central rivals. Bucs amazingly have covered just once at home TY (1-4-1) and are just 2-11-1 vs. number as host since Raheem Morris arrived LY. Lions surprising 10-3 vs. line this season, and "over" 11-5-1 last 17 since late LY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE... Saints only 9-16-1 vs. points their last 26 on board. Surprisingly, Saints also just 2-7 vs. number last nine as reg.-season visitor. John Harbaugh "under" 11-6 last 17 at home. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "under," based on team trends.

ATLANTA at SEATTLE... Pete Carroll 4-2 vs. line a home TY, and Seahawks 11-5 vs. spread last 16 at Qwest Field. Carroll also "over" 9-3-1 TY, but only 4-4 as dog. Atlanta has covered last 5 in 2010, 9-4 overall vs. line TY, and Mike Smith "over" 10-5-1 last 16 as visitor. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

DENVER at OAKLAND... Broncos destroyed by Raiders 59-14 in last meeting. Note, however, that road team has won and covered last 5 meetings, with Denver romping in last two at Coliseum. Now, though, they try with a third different coach in three years. Denver "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 14-4 last 18 on board. Broncos also just 7-16 their last 23 on board since mid ‘09. Raiders 2-2 as home chalk TY but 2-12 last 14 in role. Series "over" 5-2 last seven meetings. Tech edge-Broncos and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

NY JETS at PITTSBURGH... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Jets 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY, but 2-1 as dog and 7-4 as dog for Rex Ryan since LY. Steel 5-4 as chalk TY but just 9-15 last 24 in role. Steel home "over" trend has faded lately but Jets "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 13-5 last 18 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND... Once upon a time this was a Super Bowl matchup (SB XXXI). Note Pack’s 17-5 mark last 22 as dog since late ‘06 (1-1 in role TY). Belichick "over" 11-2 TY and 13-2 last 15 since late ‘09, though Pack "under" 9-4 TY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Packers, based on "totals" and team trends.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (Monday, December 20)... Bears 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 vs. line since bye week, Vikings 2-1 SU and vs. line for Leslie Frazier. Vikes 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 as series host, but were beaten 27-13 at Chicago last month. Bears "under" 7-4-2 TY, 17-10-2 "under" since ‘09. Tech edge-Bears and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
December 18, 2010


Browns at Bengals - The Browns are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Browns are 0-7 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since October 30, 2005 on the road when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since October 12, 1997 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a home favorite. The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since December 01, 2002 after playing on the road versus the Steelers. The Bengals are 0-10 OU (-11.7 ppg) since November 30, 2006 at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since October 01, 2000 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.

Lions at Buccaneers - The Lions are 0-9 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 14, 1999 on the road after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times. The Lions are 0-8-1 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since October 26, 2003 as a dog the week after at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 7-0 OU (15.8 ppg) since November 24, 1996 as a road dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Lions are 7-0-1 OU (9.1 ppg) since September 17, 2000 the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning.

Jaguars at Colts - The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since September 18, 2005 after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.9 ppg) since October 19, 1997 as a road dog the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Jaguars are 7-0-1 OU (11.1 ppg) since October 16, 2005 on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Jaguars are 6-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since December 11, 2005 after a win in which they were losing at the half.

Redskins at Cowboys - The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since November 09, 1997 as a home favorite after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since September 15, 1996 as a favorite versus any team with more wins after playing at home. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-12.1 ppg) since October 05, 2008 the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

Bills at Dolphins - The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a home favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 16, 2003 at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 06, 2005 at home when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a home favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 15, 1990 as a road dog the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The Bills are 0-6 OU (-13.4 ppg) since September 18, 2005 the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.

Eagles at Giants- The Eagles are 8-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since October 01, 1995 as a road dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since October 15, 2006 after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Eagles are 0-11-1 OU (-11.8 ppg) since October 02, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 7-0 OU (17.7 ppg) since November 25, 2002 as a dog versus any team with the same record after a straight up win. The Giants are 9-0-1 OU (7.3 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road.

Cardinals at Panthers - The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since September 28, 2003 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since November 13, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a favorite after playing at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since October 10, 2004 as a road dog after playing at home as a dog. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (8.3 ppg) since November 25, 2007 the week after scoring 34+ points. The Panthers are 0-9 OU (-6.9 ppg) since December 14, 2008 as a home favorite.

Broncos at Raiders - The Broncos are 0-10 ATS (-20.8 ppg) since November 22, 2001 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 when one game under 500 after a straight up loss on the road. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since October 24, 2004 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a favorite the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since November 27, 2005 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Broncos are 0-10 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 23, 1994 vs a team they lost to in their first match-up while committing at least three turnovers. The Broncos are 7-0-1 OU (12.9 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games.

Chiefs at Rams - The Chiefs are 12-0-1 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 24, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since December 03, 1995 on the road after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since October 17, 1994 on the road the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2006 on the road after playing on the road as a dog. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since October 10, 1999 within 3 of pick after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. The Rams are 7-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since September 27, 1992 as a home dog vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since December 24, 1995 when one game under 500 after game eight after a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-14.1 ppg) since October 01, 1995 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-11.9 ppg) since November 30, 2008 within 3 of pick after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time.

Saints at Ravens - The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since October 26, 2008 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS (-3.3 ppg) since September 28, 2003 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak. The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-11.6 ppg) since November 26, 2006 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Ravens are 6-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since November 30, 2003 within 3 of pick the week after scoring 34+ points.

Falcons at Seahawks - The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 03, 1992 on the road when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 22, 1995 as a home dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since October 11, 1998 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Falcons are 0-9-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since November 21, 2004 on the road off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-10.1 ppg) since November 30, 2003 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date.

Jets at Steelers - The Jets are 8-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Jets are 6-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since January 01, 2006 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Jets are 8-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since November 20, 1994 as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 9-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since October 15, 2006 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date.

Texans at Titans - The Texans are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since September 29, 2002 on the road when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 01, 2006 on the road after playing at home as a dog. The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since September 26, 2004 as a home favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Texans are 0-6 OU (-12.0 ppg) since November 16, 2003 on the road the week after scoring more than 24 points and losing. The Texans are 6-0 OU (6.5 ppg) since September 24, 2006 when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Titans are 6-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since January 06, 2002 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Titans are 0-6-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 03, 2006 when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up.

Packers at Patriots - The Packers are 6-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since September 29, 1991 on the road the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 as a 7+ favorite when their dps was positive in their last three games. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since January 07, 2007 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road.

Bears at Vikings - The Bears are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 09, 1997 as a dog when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average. The Bears are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 24, 2000 the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since October 30, 2006 the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 at home when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Bears are 0-8 OU (-10.5 ppg) since November 16, 2008 versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since November 19, 2006 after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Vikings are 7-0 OU (21.9 ppg) since November 25, 1990 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves
December 17, 2010

One of the best things Roger Goodell has done during his reign as NFL commissioner was changing the late season schedule to reflect more important divisional games. This week we have eight games where divisional opponents are playing each other for the second time this season.
We saw somewhat of playoff game Thursday night between the 49ers and Chargers because whoever lost was going to have tough time qualifying for a playoff position.

One of the most important games of the week have the Eagles and Giants each sitting at 9-4 and battling for the NFC East crown. The Eagles beat the Giants 27-17 in week 11, but in the process, the Giants did somewhat of a good job in containing Michael Vick. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened the Giants a -3 (+105) favorite, but was quickly moved to -2 ½ (-120) with bettors finding value in getting +3 with Philly laying .15 cents more.

For those looking to get +3 at -110, the South Point sportsbook has the only flat number in town. They continue to be the only book in Las Vegas that uses only flat numbers. Their next move is likely -2 ½, so get it fast if that side is attractive.

The battle for the AFC South could end this week should Jacksonville dispose of the Colts like they did week 4 with their 31-28 win. A two game advantage with two to go and owning the first tie-breaker could have the Jaguars sending last season’s AFC Super Bowl representative home before the playoffs begin. Should the Colts win, the final two weeks will become very interesting. The line has been steady all week with the Colts a 5-point favorite.

Based on the way Peyton Manning’s confidence has looked shattered over the last few weeks, taking the points in what figures to be a tight game does have some value. Just to show how much things have changed with each team’s rating since that week four matchup, the Colts were 7-point favorites on the road at Jacksonville.

The Bears and Vikings meet again in a critical matchup for Chicago in the NFC North that could almost assure the Bears of winning the division and a playoff position should the Packers lose at New England, which is very likely considering Aaron Rodgers is extremely doubtful. No definitive answer will be known on Rodgers status until Saturday, but even if he were to play, beating Tom Brady would have been a tall task. The Hilton opened the Patriots as 4 ½-point favorites before last week's games. Lucky’s sports books are the places in town with the game up and have the Patriots as 12-point favorites.

As for the Bears Monday night, it’s looking more like Vikings rookie quarterback Joe Webb will get the start as Tavaris Jackson is out and Brett Favre is very doubtful. The Hilton’s early line had the Vikings as 1 ½-point favorites before last week's games, but currently have the game off the board, as does every other book besides Lucky’s, who currently have the Bears 6-point favorites. It’s hard to believe Favre still has the type of impact on a line, but it’s more about the inexperience of Webb who is sure to get a heavy dose of the Monsters of the Midway throwing the kitchen sink at him.

Seeing the Vikings play a home game outside again for the first time since 1981 will be a pleasant sight. I always enjoyed the edge they had their as the home team in December where the elements always played a major impact. Each of their Super Bowl appearances were always influenced because of the advantage they had at home.

Early forecasts for Monday night call for snow showers at nine degrees which could once again give the Vikings a home field edge and negate their disadvantage of Webb starting. The Bears play in a cold weather city as well, but we saw last week just how good they are in it offensively as New England wiped them up on their home field in the snow. Because of the forecast, no sports book in town has the total up. Whatever the number is, under looks like the way to go, and get it fast, like in as soon as it goes up, because it will only go down from there.

A critical AFC clash has the Steelers hosting the Jets this week as 5 ½-point favorites. The Steelers initially opened as 6-point favorites based on the current funk the Jets are in that has seen them go without a touchdown the last two weeks. Mark Sanchez has been challenged by Rex Ryan this week through the media and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a positive response, or at least a score.

The largest move of the week was somewhat tame with the Saints moving from +3 (-120) to +1 ½ at Baltimore in a critical game before their match with the Falcons next week. The Bengals dropped from an opener of -2 ½ to -1 ½ based on the Browns starting the more efficient Colt McCoy over Jake Delhomme. Seahawks money also found their way to the windows taking +7 and +6 ½ against the Falcons who are now 6-point favorites. The Falcons are very public team and the number should balance the sharp plays eventually forcing a move back up.

The Titans and Texans meet up again this week in Nashville, and while two 5-8 teams don’t really create much interest, the rematch between Andre Johnson and Cortland Finnegan should be exciting to watch. Houston beat the Titans 20-0 in week 12 where the two slugged it out, or rather Johnson did. The Texans were initially getting 2-points, but the line has settled at +1 ½.

I been playing in a weekly contest the local newspaper has called the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge representing VegasInsider.com and have held my own weekly despite two horrendous weeks going 37-32-1 on the year. The contest uses the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest lines and requires five selections a week. The current leader is the Hilton’s Executive Race and Sports Director Jay Kornegay at 41-29.

LVRJ Challenge

Here are my contest selections for Week 15:

Jaguars +5 at Indianapolis
Buccaneers -6 vs. Lions
Jets +6 at Pittsburgh
Falcons -6 at Seattle
Bears -3 at Minnesota

I have been guest hosting Sports Book radio on ESPN 1100 am here in Las Vegas while regular host Brian Blessing is away. On Thursday's show we had Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman on who gave his NFL selections along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal's UNLV beat wirter Matt Youman's as we discussed what happned to the Rebels Wednesday night against UCSB. I closed out the last half hour with VegasInsider.com's Brian Edwards as he broke down the week 15 NFL card and gave insight to Florida's new coaching situation. Friday's show will be live at the M Resort and Spa's race and sports book where I will be with Bruce Marshall discussing everything going on in sports this weekend, including the 2022 Qatar date for the World Cup.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 15
December 18, 2010

Week 14 Recap
Weather finally played a factor last week, yet the ‘under’ still only produced an 8-7-1 record. Some ‘under’ players may’ve earned a win in the Falcons 31-10 over the Panthers since the number was hovering closer to 42 points prior to kickoff. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 114-91-3 (56%) but the first game of the week went ‘under’ as San Diego ripped San Francisco 34-7 (44.5) on Thursday. Is the pendulum finally swinging the other way? Along with the poor playing conditions, the divisional factor (see below) will come into play again this week.

System Play

If you don’t have time to read Page 21 of the Football Forecast and check out some great proven systems, we’ll give it to you in real simple terms. Bet the ‘over’ in any game that has a team playing its third straight game on the road. This season, it stands at 1-1 and that includes the ‘under’ winner between the Saints and Rams. Those following that game know it was on pace at halftime (21-6), but things happened and a total of 17 points in the second-half kept the game from eclipsing the closing number of 47.

This week, three battles feature teams playing their third straight road game. The system has been solid and based on the angles, anything less than a 2-1 mark would be disappointing.

Denver at Oakland
Atlanta at Seattle
Cleveland at Cincinnati

Divisional Duels

In Week 15, we have eight divisional battles slated and all of these games are the second showdown between the two clubs going head-to-head. Delving into the eight games further, we’ve got five situations where the two teams saw the first encounter go way ‘over’ the number or way ‘under’ the total. Will we see a reverse outcome on Sunday or the same versus, just like the first?

Houston at Tennessee: This is the classic flip-flop game when it comes to total betting and you often find yourself scratching your head. Houston blanked Tennessee 20-0 in the first meeting, never threating the closing total of 46. Now, the number this week comes out at 47 1/2. If you take away this shutout by the Texans, their defense has given up 24 points or more in ever game, plus they surrendered 30-plus in seven of their 13 outings. The Titans won’t have a backup quarterback playing this week and they showed some power last week with a 28-point spot against Indy albeit in a loss. Both sides have playmakers on offense but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Jaguars edge the Colts 31-28 in a game that was knotted 14-14 at the half. The game slowed down a bit in the second half but finally jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 45 with two minutes left. Including this affair, five of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number. The Jags have been an ‘over’ team all season (8-3-2) and so has the Colts (8-5). This week’s total is hovering between 48 and 49 points, and the status of Jacksonville QB David Garrard is up in the air.

Buffalo at Miami: These two AFC East clubs met in Week 1 and the Dolphins stifled the Bills 15-10 on the road in an ugly game. Buffalo started Trent Edwards that day and he was awful. Since then, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the starter and he’s slumping. In his last three weeks, the offense has put up 16, 14 and 13 points and the gunslinger has only been picked off twice and fumbled three times during this stretch. Miami watched the first four games go ‘over’ at home but they’ve been held to a combined 10 points the last two outings in South Florida, both losses. To go even deeper, the Fins have been held to 10 or less in four of the last six. Last season, both games went ‘over’ the number but in 2008, the pair of regular season battles stayed ‘under.’ Do we see another sweep this year?

Washington at Dallas: Another Week 1 matchup here as the Cowboys and Redskins tangle for the second go ‘round. This time however, we’ll have two backup quarterbacks going at it. Jon Kitna took over the duties for Dallas when Tony Romo got hurt and has done a solid job, helping the team score 27 or more in the last five games. The big shocker here is that Washington benched Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman. McNabb’s days are done in D.C. but that’s a whole other story. Grossman has 33 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in 31 career starts, which could help with a defensive score. Washington has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the road and its highest output was 25 points and that was aided by a special teams score. However, the number is high and even though Dallas (11-2) has been a crazy ‘over’ team this season, especially at home (7-0), it makes you wonder if this high-scoring run ends in the Lone Star State.

Denver at Oakland: The Raiders lit up the Broncos 59-14 in wire-to-wire fashion, opening up a 38-7 lead and halftime and coasting to the blowout victory. Oakland put up 508 yards and 29 first downs in the win and it exposed how bad Denver’s defense really is. The Broncos are giving up 28.9 PPG and only two of their opponents have been held to 14 or less. Oakland (8-5) has been an ‘over’ team but lately the offense has been back and forth. After being held to a combined 20 points to the Steelers and Dolphins, the Raiders fired back with 28 and 31 on the road against the Chargers and Jaguars respectively the last two weeks. We know Denver’s defense is garbage but the Broncos annoucned rookie quarterback Tim Tebow will be making his first start. The total is sitting at 43 and that says a lot based on the weak defensive squads lining up and the shootout in the first head-to-head meeting. The ‘over’ might look easy but the vice versa theory could work here in the second meeting.

Fearless Predictions

We had one easy winner last week and one tough loser. That’s the business and splits are like kissing your sister. On the season, the Best Bets are 9-8 (+20). The three-team teaser did cash again, fairly easily too, which pushes that number up to 5-3 (+200). With three weeks to play, the bankroll is +220. Hopefully, we can pull out the broom and get up five units.

Best Over: Houston-Tennessee 47.5

Best Under: Detroit-Tampa Bay 43.5

Three-Team Total Teaser

Over Houston-Tennessee 38.5
Under Detroit-Tampa Bay 52.5
Under Arizona-Carolina 47.5

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15 Showdowns
December 16, 2010


For the exception of the Patriots in the AFC East, the other seven division races are up for grabs heading into Sunday's Week 15 card in the NFL. Six afternoon contests have major playoff implications including the Ravens hosting the Saints, while the Jets try to end their two-game skid in Pittsburgh. We'll start with an AFC South showdown in Indianapolis as the Colts look to hang onto their playoff lives with a victory.

Jaguars at Colts (-5, 48 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis isn't dead yet in the AFC South, entering Sunday's matchup with Jacksonville just one game back of the Jaguars. Peyton Manning rebounded from three of the worst games of his career with a three-touchdown effort in a 30-28 victory at Tennessee last Thursday to move the Colts to 7-6. Jacksonville travels to Lucas Oil Stadium going for its sixth win in seven tries after last Sunday's wild 38-31 home triumph over Oakland.

The Colts will be looking to avenge a 31-28 setback at Jacksonville in Week 4 as seven-point road favorites. Indianapolis has struggled to cover the number at home the last three opportunities against Dallas, San Diego, and Cincinnati. Despite all the injuries offensively, the Colts have managed to hit the 'over' in three of the last four games with the lone non-'over' being a 'push' against the Chargers in a 36-14 loss.

The Jaguars have turned in one of the best ATS marks in the league at 9-4, while covering six straight games. Jacksonville has definitely flown under the radar, but the Jags are an impressive 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in games which quarterback David Garrard has played wire-to-wire. The 'over' is a strong 5-1 in Jacksonville's six road games, while going 6-1 to the 'over' the last seven games overall.

Eagles at Giants (-2 ½, 46) - 1:00 PM EST

The co-leaders of the NFC East meet for the second time in five weeks with the division title on the line. If Philadelphia can pull off the road victory, the Eagles will be in a prime spot to win their first NFC East title since 2006 as Andy Reid's team would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. On the flip side, if the Giants can grab this win, New York would still need to win both of its final games at Green Bay and Washington to at least secure a playoff spot.

The Eagles beat the Giants, 27-17 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11 as 3 ½-point favorites. Philadelphia intercepted Eli Manning three times, while holding the Giants to just 61 yards on the ground. The Eagles' offense has scored at least 26 points in each of the last six games since Michael Vick's return from a rib injury. The 'under' against the Giants was the only game that was not an 'over' during the last nine games for the Eagles.

The Giants have gone through a whirlwind travel week after traveling from New Jersey to Kansas City to Detroit thanks to the horrible weather in the Midwest. New York took care of business at Ford Field over Minnesota, 21-3, the second straight game the Giants have held the opponent to seven points or less. The Giants own a 1-3 ATS mark the last four games as a home favorite, while going 5-7 ATS at home against division opponents since 2007.

Chiefs (-2, 43 ½) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST

The I-70 battle takes place at the Edward Jones Dome as the Missouri rivals are each in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Chiefs will get Matt Cassel back under center after missing last week's 31-0 loss at San Diego following an appendectomy. The Rams also look to bounce back from a 31-13 setback at New Orleans, but St. Louis is still tied atop the NFC West with the Seahawks at 6-7.

These two teams have similar resumes, as each club beat San Diego at home as underdogs, while losing close decisions at Oakland. Kansas City's offense can't be any worse than the 67-yard effort in last week's whitewashing at San Diego. The four previous road contests have been shootouts for Todd Haley's squad, including a 42-24 thumping at Seattle as short 'chalk.' The Chiefs knocked off the Rams in St. Louis in its last regular season meeting in 2006 with a 31-17 victory as 2 ½-point 'dogs.

The Rams are a solid 4-2 SU/ATS at home this season, a significant upgrade from the 1-15 campaign of last season. St. Louis is a perfect 3-0 ATS off a non-cover, while playing only its second home game since the start of November. The Rams' defense has been touched up a bit over the last four games, allowing at least 31 points three times, including in losses to the Saints and Falcons.

Saints at Ravens (-1 ½, 43 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans and Baltimore are each coming off big wins last week as the two veteran clubs hook up at M&T Stadium. The Saints remain one game back of the Falcons in the NFC West despite at 10-3 record, while the Ravens trail the Steelers by one game in the AFC North. The question is whether or not Baltimore can slow down New Orleans' explosive offense.

The Ravens' defense was cruising during the first half of Monday's night wild win over the Texans in overtime. However, Houston scored 21 points in the second half to tie the game at 28, while the Texans accumulated 489 yards of offense. Baltimore has allowed 13 points or less in each of its past three home games, all finishing 'under' the total.

Since the embarrassing home loss to Cleveland in Week 7, New Orleans has reeled off six consecutive victories. The offense has returned to its elite level by scoring at least 30 points in each of the last five games, but failed to cover as favorites at Dallas and Cincinnati. The Saints will be looking to avenge a 35-22 home loss to the Ravens in Drew Brees' first season in New Orleans back in 2006.

Falcons (-6, 45) at Seahawks - 4:05 PM EST

Atlanta has the inside track on home-field advantage inside the NFC with an 11-2 mark, as the Falcons play their third straight road game at Seattle. Amazingly, the Seahawks still have an opportunity to not only win the NFC West, but also to host a playoff game at Qwest Field. Seattle returns home after getting thumped at San Francisco, 40-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs to fall to 6-7.

The Falcons took care of business against another weak opponent last Sunday with a 31-14 victory at Carolina, the seventh straight win for Mike Smith's team. Atlanta has helped out backers by covering five consecutive games, all as a favorite. The key for the Falcons is beating below .500 teams, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against these clubs.

The Seahawks have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, but their most success has been at home with a 4-2 mark. The only consistency for Pete Carroll's squad is the six straight 'overs,' while allowing 14 points or less in three home games against San Francisco, Carolina, and Arizona. However, the story hasn't been the same against better competition by giving up an average of 34.3 ppg against the Chargers, Giants, and Chiefs.

Jets at Steelers (-6, 36) - 4:15 PM EST

New York has been a disaster offensively the last two weeks by scoring a meager nine points in lossess to New England and Miami. The Jets' road doesn't get easier as they head to Heinz Field to battle a Pittsburgh squad that is staring at a potential first-round bye in the playoffs. The Steelers' offense was held out of the end zone in a 23-7 home victory over the Bengals, as Pittsburgh's defense returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns.

The Jets are 8-0 when it scores at least a touchdown, while going 0-4 when getting not reaching the end zone. For the exception of New England's trouncing of New York two weeks ago, the Jets' defense has allowed 20 points or less 10 times this season. Since the bye week, the Jets have compiled a 2-5 ATS mark, although they have been listed as an underdog only once in this stretch.

The Steelers' defense has given up a total of 36 points in the last four games, all wins and all 'unders.' Pittsburgh's three losses have come to Baltimore, New Orleans, and New England, but the Patriots' loss was the only game in which Mike Tomlin's team was blown out in. The Steelers are 0-4 ATS coming off a win and cover as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in this spot since 2009.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
12/12/10 9-16-1 36.00% -4300 Detail
12/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/05/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1400 Detail
12/02/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 31-34-1 47.69% -3200



Sunday, December 19Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
Miami - Over 39.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1 500
Cincinnati - Over 40 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -4 500
Tampa Bay - Over 43 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -4.5 500
Indianapolis - Over 47.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -2.5 500
Carolina - Under 37.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans +2.5 500
Baltimore - Over 44 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +7 500
Dallas - Over 44 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston +1 500
Tennessee - Over 47.5 500

Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +5.5 500
Seattle - Over 46 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Jets +4 500
Pittsburgh - Under 35.5 500

Denver - 4:15 PM ET Oakland -9 500
Oakland - Over 41.5 500

Green Bay - 8:20 PM ET New England -14 500
New England - Under 43.5 500

[BillMill71]

Good Luck SDB

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/19/10 13-10-1 56.52% +1000 Detail
12/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
12/12/10 9-16-1 36.00% -4300 Detail
12/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/05/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1400 Detail
12/02/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 44-44-2 50.00% -2200

Monday, December 20Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Chicago -6.5 500
Minnesota - Under 33.5 500

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Vikings host Bears outdoors with rookie QB


CHICAGO BEARS (9-4)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-8)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, TCF Bank Stadium
Line: Chicago -7.5, Total: 33

When the NFL schedulers finalized this game, they were probably envisioning a Jay Cutler-Brett Favre shootout in the 68-degreee Metrodome. But due to the collapse of the Metrodome roof (and Favre’s entire body), this NFC North clash will take place in a freezing outdoor stadium (TCF Bank Stadium on the campus of the University of Minnesota) with Favre in street clothes watching Vikings QB Joe Webb make his first career start. Temperatures are expected to drop to single digits when Minnesota plays their first outdoor home game in 29 years to the day.

Chicago has very little love for the Metrodome considering it has lost seven of its past eight trips to the Minnesota’s dome. This game suits the Bears very nicely considering they have won 10 straight outdoor games after December 1 against warm-weather or dome teams. They are looking to get back on track after being crushed in New England last Sunday by a score of 36-7. Chicago was outgained 475-185 in the loss and only rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries. The Bears offense has struggled all year, ranking 25th in the NFL in rushing yards (98.6 YPG) and 26th in passing (193 YPG). Jay Cutler, who was terrible in the snow last week (12-for-26, 152 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT), has 17 TD and 12 INT this season. To be fair, he has played better in his past six games, throwing 10 TD and 5 INT. Cutler also had a huge game when the Bears beat Minnesota in Week 10, throwing for 237 yards and three touchdowns. The reason the Bears are leading their division is their excellent defense, most notably the run-stop unit which ranks second in the NFL (87.9 YPG).

The 24-year-old Webb certainly has his work cut out for him in his first career start. The sixth-round draft pick out of UAB completed 2-of-5 passes for 8 yards, while rushing once for 16 yards in last week’s loss to the Giants. The key to Monday night’s game will be Adrian Peterson, who only gained 26 yards on 14 carries against New York. He also found little running room in the Week 10 trip to Chicago with just 51 yards on 17 carries. However, Peterson has had past success against the Bears, rushing for 784 yards and 11 touchdowns in seven career games.

These teams have split their 10 meetings (both SU and ATS) since 2006. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends expect Chicago will win and cover in this contest.

Play On - Road teams (CHICAGO) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 12.9, OPPONENT 25.4 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Over the meager 33-point Total:

Play Over - Any team against the total (CHICAGO) - after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (60-24 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.4%, +33.6 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Bears at Vikings
December 20, 2010

It's been a whirlwind season for the Vikings with plenty of storylines that the public has heard about for months. The latest twist for Minnesota is the damage to the Metrodome roof, as Monday night's game against Chicago will be moved to the University of Minnesota at TCF Bank Stadium. Besides playing on a new field, the Vikings will have Brett Favre back under center after missing last week with a shoulder injury. However, Adrian Peterson is out tonight with a nagging ankle injury.

Minnesota has nowhere to go with the playoffs out of reach at 5-8, while Favre's banged-up right shoulder is good enough to go tonight. The veteran gunslinger had his streak of 297 consecutive regular-season starts snapped in last Monday's loss to the Giants, 21-3 at Ford Field. Tarvaris Jackson was finally given an opportunity to jump-start the Vikings' offense, but could not even get Minnesota into the end zone as he suffered a toe injury and ending his season.

The Bears are thankful that they won't be seeing Tom Brady this week, as the Patriots' quarterback torched Chicago for 369 yards and two touchdowns in a 36-7 blowout at Soldier Field. Lovie Smith's team is still atop the NFC North at 9-4, including a 5-1 mark on the highway. Chicago's offense has seen its ups and downs this season, coming off two solid efforts prior to the cold showing against New England.

Four of the five road victories have come against teams that are below .500, including wins over the Panthers, Bills, Lions, and Cowboys. The lone win over a club that is still in playoff contention was the 16-0 shutout of the Dolphins as third-stringer Tyler Thigpen started for Miami back in Week 11. Four of those games finished 'under' the total, as that can be the case once again with the chilly weather expected at the outdoor venue on the campus of University of Minnesota.

The Bears knocked off the Vikings, 27-13 at Soldier Field in Week 10 as one-point favorites. The game barely finished 'under' the total of 41, thanks to Minnesota scoring just three points in the second half. Jay Cutler tossed three touchdowns passes, while the Bears' defense intercepted Favre three times in a crucial division win. That marked the sixth straight time in this series that the home team came out with a victory.

So what does that mean with the game getting moved outside the Metrodome? This is the first outdoor home game for the Vikings since 1981 at the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington. This is the third time the Bears have been favored on the road, but by far the biggest number all season. Chicago was listed as a five-point favorite at Detroit two weeks ago, as the Bears failed to cover in a 24-20 victory.

Taking away last week's game at a neutral site, the Vikings come into this game as a home underdog for just the second this season. Minnesota was chased out by Green Bay as three-point 'dogs in Week 11 by a 31-3 count. Prior to the short Favre era in Minnesota, the Vikings went 3-6 ATS at home in 2008, including underdog defeats to the Colts and Eagles.

The favorites have dominated on Monday night football recently with eight straight covers. Both the Giants and Ravens cashed last week when laying points on the road, as away 'chalk' is 6-3 ATS this season on Monday nights. There is no defining trends from a totals perspective, splitting right the down the middle in 16 games.

The Bears are listed as 7 ½-point favorites in most spots, while the number is creeping up to eight at some sportsbooks. The total is set at 33, but look for that number to potentially drop with the cold weather in Minneapolis. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- One of the bigger meltdowns any football fan will see was witnessed at the new Meadowlands as the Giants blew a 31-10 fourth quarter lead in a shocking 38-31 loss to the Eagles. DeSean Jackson's punt return for a score won it for the Eagles, but also put Philadelphia in prime position to win the NFC East. The Eagles scored four touchdowns in the final eight minutes as Michael Vick totaled 372 yards passing and rushing combined.

-- The Lions finally won a road game for the first time since 2007 as Detroit upset Tampa Bay in overtime, 23-20 as four-point underdogs. This was the first loss for the Bucs this season against a team below .500 in nine tries, damaging Tampa Bay's fading playoff hopes in the NFC.

-- The Chiefs helped themselves in the tight AFC West race with a 27-13 drubbing of the Rams in the I-70 showdown in St. Louis as three-point underdogs. Matt Cassel returned from his appendectomy by throwing a touchdown pass, while leading Kansas City to 383 yards of offense and sole possession of first place in the division with two weeks left.