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**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2010, 07:06 PM

NFL trends: Monday hangovers, low Totals

Monday Night hangover for road teams:
For much of the season, there was no negative impact on how teams that played on Monday night performed the following week with one less day to prepare. In fact, through the first 14 weeks of the season, teams that have hosted Monday night games are 8-5 ATS (62%) the following Sunday. Somewhat surprisingly, Monday night hosts who have had to travel for their next game six days later are 7-3 ATS (70%). This bodes well for Houston (at Tennessee) in Week 15. We’ll disqualify Minnesota from this study for two reasons: One, its Monday night experience was more like that of a road team, and two, the Vikings have another Monday night game in Week 15 (hosting Chicago) so they have a full week to prepare (albeit one less day than their opponent).
As for Monday night road teams, it seems as though Monday night games have taken a greater toll on them as the season has progressed. Through the first seven weeks of Monday night games, Monday night road teams have gone an even 3-3 ATS when they played the following Sunday (two Monday night road teams had byes the following week). Since then, Monday night road teams have gone just 1-5 ATS (17%) the following Sunday. That makes them 4-8 ATS (33%) for the season. There’s good reason to believe that this is more than just a coincidence when you factor in the physical wear and tear that players must incur over the course of a grueling 16-game schedule. With the bonus Monday night game from Week 14, you can take stands against both Baltimore (hosting New Orleans) and the New York Giants (hosting Philadelphia) in Week 15.

How low can you go?
One of the marquee matchups of Week 15 will take place late Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh when the Steelers take on the suddenly struggling New York Jets. It should come as no surprise that the total for this game between two of the most menacing defenses in the league has been set extremely low at 36. We decided to take a look at where this would rank among the lowest totals of the season and found some interesting results. There have been just 10 games in which the final total was below 37. Rarely have these games been as low scoring as anticipated, as the Over has hit in seven of these 10 games. The average total score for these 10 games (41.3) is a full six points higher than the average final posted total (35.3).

Pittsburgh has participated in two of these 10 games, both without the services of Ben Roethlisberger, going well Over the 33.5 against Tampa Bay (38-13 SU win) while coming Under the 34-point total posted for its Week 4 meeting with Baltimore (17-14 SU loss). The Jets have been involved in three of these games, going well over in Weeks 3 and 4 against Miami (54 over 35.5) and Buffalo (52 over 36.5), respectively. Baltimore is the common denominator between Pittsburgh and New York in these situations as the Ravens and Jets combined for just 19 points in the Ravens’ Week 1 win over the Jets (total was 36).

The FoxSheets contain some pretty solid angles that support the Over in this one:

NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. The average score was NY JETS 24.7, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 3*).

NY JETS are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in road games this season. The average score was NY JETS 24.2, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. (61-30 since 1983.) (67%, +28 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2010, 07:07 PM

Rodgers doubtful to play at New England

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-5)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

The Packers are fighting for their playoff lives, but traveling to 11-2 New England, possibly without their star quarterback, is not an envious position to be in. Green Bay is 8-5 and could be missing QB Aaron Rodgers who suffered his second concussion of the season last week. In Wednesday’s press conference, head coach Mike McCarthy did not sound optimistic about Rodgers chances to play, but a final decision won’t be made until Saturday. In the meantime, Rodgers will undergo concussion testing and Matt Flynn will run the first-team offense.

Flynn is in his third season after a successful college career at LSU. Before replacing Rodgers in the second quarter in last week’s loss at Detroit, he had only thrown three passes all year. Flynn had his moments against the Lions, but he finished a mediocre 15-of -26 (58%) for 177 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. For his career, Flynn has a 51.5 quarterback rating. He is 25-for-46 (54%) for 246 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. Not only is Rodgers one of the top QBs in the league, but the Packers have virtually no running game to compensate for Rodgers’ potential absence. They rank 24th in the league with 98.8 rushing YPG, including just four 100-yard games. Brandon Jackson is Green Bay’s leading rusher, but he has gained 70 yards on the ground just once this season. Over the past four weeks, he has only carried the ball 35 times for 86 yards (2.5 YPC) with no touchdowns.

For the Packers to hang around in this game, the defense will need to stand tall. Green Bay ranks third in the NFL in pass defense (197 YPG), tied for third in interceptions (18) and fifth in sacks (37). But the Packers have not faced an offense as potent as New England’s this season.

Tom Brady has been sizzling in his past eight games, throwing for 274 YPG, 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Since losing to Cleveland in Week 9, the Patriots are 5-0 and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 39 to 18. New England has rushed for over 100 yards in each of these five wins and has not committed a single turnover. The defense has forced 13 turnovers during the win streak, and is holding its opponents to 95 rushing YPG. The Bears only gained 185 total yards last week in the Pats’ 36-7 blowout win in Chicago.

Although the Patriots won the last meeting 35-0 in 2006, Green Bay won its past two trips to Foxboro, both by identical 28-10 scores (1997 and 2002). However, with the way the Pats have played lately, plus the uncertainty of Rodgers health, the cards are stacked high against the Packers. This FoxSheets trend expects New England to win its sixth straight contest on Sunday night.

Play Against - Road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (285-190 since 1983.) (60%, +76 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2010, 07:09 PM

Chargers, 49ers begin NFL Week 15 betting

The San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers are both fighting for postseason berths as they kick off NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football.

Bookmaker.com has San Diego as 8 ½-point home favorites with a total of 44 points. San Fran is plus 325 to pull off the sizable upset.

The Chargers (7-6 straight-up and against the spread) got a huge 31-0 home win over Kansas City last week. That spread ballooned up to 10 points before game time as Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (appendectomy) couldn’t go and was replaced by Brodie Croyle.

Croyle made it obvious why he’s the backup by going just 7-of-17 for 40 yards. San Diego dominated the time of possession, 40-20 minutes, out-gaining the Chiefs 426-76 in total yards.

The win cut Kansas City’s (8-5 SU) lead to just one game in the AFC West. San Diego can take the division by winning out (at Cincinnati and Denver are next), plus one loss by KC. The wild card is also a possibility for San Diego, albeit less likely.

San Diego has made its playoff run by going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The only loss was a shocking 28-13 home defeat to Oakland two weeks ago as 12 ½-point favorites. The Raiders ran over, around and through the Chargers defense for 251 yards, while San Diego mustered just 21 on the ground.

The Chargers did do a great job running the ball last week with Michael Tolbert (66 yards), rookie Ryan Mathews (65 yards) and Darren Sproles (53 yards) all contributing. The running game ranks 13th in the NFL (113.4 YPG) and balance is needed Thursday with tight end Antonio Gates (foot) and receiver Patrick Crayton (wrist) questionable.

San Diego is 5-2 ATS at home this year and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 December contests even after the Oakland game. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in its last five home games.

The 49ers are remarkably alive for the playoffs at 5-8 SU (5-8 ATS). That’s what happens residing in the lowly NFC West with division leaders St. Louis and Seattle both 6-7 SU.

Coach Mike Singletary made another quarterback change last week by going with Alex Smith. He started the first seven games (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) before injuring his shoulder and giving way to Troy Smith for the next five (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Singletary cited Alex Smith’s experience for starting him last week at home against Seattle. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2005 went 17-of-27 for 255 yards, three TDs and no picks. He has an 80.6 quarterback rating for the year. The Seahawks had five turnovers and San Fran easily ‘covered’ the 4 ½-point spread with a 40-21 win.

The challenge for Smith and the 49ers will be much harder this week. Their true road record (excluding the London game vs. Denver) is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. The road record with Alex Smith starting is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

The team is also dealing with the loss of running back Frank Gore (hip) for the year. Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook have filled in the last two weeks with mixed results. San Fran is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.

The 49ers finish the season at St. Louis and home to Arizona. They will incredibly make the playoffs if they win all three and Seattle loses one game.

San Francisco and San Diego haven’t faced each other since 2006, with San Diego winning 48-19 as 10-point road favorites.

Kickoff from Qualcomm Stadium will be 5:20 p.m. (PT) on the NFL Network. Weather is from sunny San Diego will be clear and in the 50s.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2010, 07:10 PM

NFL odds favor Steelers at home versus Jets

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won four straight, with a 3-1 spread record in that stretch. Mike Tomlin’s club hosts its second straight home game in Sunday’s matchup against the New York Jets, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.

Sports books opened Pittsburgh as a 5 ½-point favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 36. Early wagers on the Steelers and ‘under’ moved the numbers to 6 ½ and 35 ½, respectively.

Pittsburgh’s latest win came in last Sunday’s 23-7 triumph as a nine-point home favorite against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers prevailed despite failing to notch an offensive touchdown, controlling the ball for 35 minutes.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger connected on 21-of-33 passes for 258 yards. The 28-year-old led his squad to 18 first downs, while being sacked four times.

Roethlisberger’s favorite target was wide out Hines Ward, who finished with a season-high eight catches. Ward logged a team-high 115 yards, failing to reach the end zone for a fourth straight game.

The Steelers defense held Cincinnati to 190 yards. Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley united for three interceptions, returning two for touchdowns. Woodley added a team-high two sacks, finishing with a season-high five tackles.

The lopsided affair’s combined 30 points ducked below the ‘total’ of 39 ½, making the ‘under’ 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last four games. Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham hit 3-of-3 field goal attempts, extending the Ontario native’s season streak to 9-for-9.

Pittsburgh improved to 4-2 ATS in its first six home dates, with the ‘under’ also moving to 4-2. Polamalu and Co. have allowed a stingy 14.2 PPG in that span.

New York picked up its second straight loss in last Sunday’s 10-6 setback as a five-point home favorite against the Miami Dolphins. The Jets were unable to erase an early 10-0 deficit, mustering only two field goals from placekicker Nick Folk.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez completed 17-of-44 passes for 216 yards, while logging one fumble and one interception. The second-year man guided his offense to 14 first downs in its 34 minutes of possession.

New York’s LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for a team-high 49 yards on 19 carries. The 31-year-old running back failed to score a touchdown for a seventh straight game.

The Jets defense held Miami to 131 yards, while recording five sacks. Linebacker Bart Scott and nose tackle Sione Pouha each logged a team-high seven tackles.

The tight battle’s combined 16 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 37 ½, bringing the ‘under’ to 2-1 in New York’s last three games. Miami coughed up three fumbles, while bring forced to punt 10 times.

The Jets are 4-2 in their six road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 6-0. Rex Ryan’s crew has scored 24.2 PPG in that stretch, while allowing 23.7 PPG.

New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Steelers, with the ‘under’ also collecting at 3-1.

The foes have not met since 2007, when the Jets notched a 19-16 overtime win as a nine-point home dog. Roethlisberger was held to 195 passing yards for the Steelers, tossing one interception while fumbling once.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. (PT), with CBS providing television coverage in some markets. The weather forecast in Pittsburgh calls for a high of 24 degrees, with 10 mph winds and a 30-percent chance of snow showers.

Pittsburgh will have a three-day rest, remaining on its home grass for Thursday’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Jets will travel again as part of next Sunday’s league slate, visiting the Chicago Bears.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-15-2010, 07:11 PM

NFL Betting: Running down playoff contenders

We decided to put NFLProPicker to work in helping us to figure out which teams will be participating in the 2010 postseason countdown to Super Bowl 45. Let’s look at the likely winners of the AFC and NFC Divisions as well as each the conference wild card teams.

AFC East
An easy one to start, New England will end up on top of this division. The Patriots have a better record than the Jets and (after a tough Green Bay game) can coast home against Buffalo and Miami. They’ll end up at 13-3 with a first-round bye. The Jets have to contend with two strong teams in Weeks 15 and 16 (Pittsburgh and Chicago) before closing out against the Bills. Expect the Jets to end up at 11-5. Good effort, but Miami won’t catch New York.

AFC North
It looks like Pittsburgh will win this division. The Steelers are finishing the season with a pretty soft closing schedule. They face the unpredictable Jets followed by Carolina and Cleveland. They will end up at 12-4 (with the other AFC first-round bye). Baltimore coasts home with relative ease as well, first against the always tough Saints but then facing Cleveland and Cincinnati. The Ravens will end up at 11-5.

AFC South
The two contenders in this division (Jacksonville and Indianapolis) are fairly evenly matched, the better team (Jaguars) versus the team with the better quarterback (Colts). The key will be this week when the Colts and Jaguars square off in Indianapolis. Jacksonville won their first encounter, 31-26, at home in Week 4. NFLProPicker likes Indianapolis based on the statistical matchup of these two teams. After the Jaguars, the Colts meet the Raiders and (once again) their Week 14 rival, the Titans. Look for Manning and gang to close out the season with no more losses and to end up at 10-6. And after Indianapolis, Jacksonville will split against Oakland and Washington to finish up at 9-7.

AFC West
San Diego will slip past a faltering Kansas City to qualify for postseason play. The Chargers are playing well and have a fairly soft three remaining games against San Francisco, Cincinnati and Denver. They’ll end up at 10-6. Nothing’s easy for the Chiefs as they face St. Louis, Tennessee and Oakland in their final three games. Even with Matt Cassel back at the helm, expect them to win only one of these games to finish at 9-7.

Wild Cards
The wild cards that will join Indianapolis and San Diego in the first round will be the Jets and the Ravens.

NFC East
We’re in a two horse race which will come down to this week’s matchup between the contenders, Philadelphia and the New York Giants. NFLProPicker prefers the Giants in this game to be played in New York. After the Eagles, the Giants face Green Bay and Washington. They will win one of these games and end up with an 11-5 record and may have the first-round bye. Philly, after losing to NY, will play Minnesota and Dallas (having just played the Cowboys in Week 14). Expect them to beat Minnesota but lose to Dallas. They will end up at 10-6.

NFC North
There are two strong teams in this division, the Bears and the Packers. Expect Chicago to prevail, but it may well come down to a Week 17 showdown between these two teams. Chicago will play Minnesota and the NY Jets before meeting Green Bay. The Bears will split their Weeks 15 and 16 games. NFLProPicker likes Chicago in the Week 17 matchup with Green Bay. Chicago ends up at 11-5 and may have the first-round bye. The Packers have a tough road ahead, facing New England and the NY Giants before playing Chicago. They’ll win one and lose one before losing to Chicago – and end at 9-7.

NFC South
There are three solid teams in this division and all have a chance to see postseason action. This should be the most exciting wind-up of all the divisions. But in the end, it will be the Atlanta Falcons that win the division. Atlanta plays Seattle, New Orleans and St. Louis in its last three games. The Falcons will win two of the three to end up 13-3 (with the first-round bye). New Orleans plays Baltimore, Atlanta and Tampa Bay in its last three games and will also win two of three to finish 12-4 (one of those two wins will be against Tampa Bay). Initially, Tampa Bay has a soft touch, playing Detroit and Seattle, but then faces New Orleans in Week 17. This could end up being a critical game that NFLProPicker points to the Saints winning. This will leave the Buccaneers at 10-6 – but still with an outside chance for a wild card slot.

NFC West
Now for the sad-sack division of the NFL. There’s been lots of discussion of late about not allowing a 500 team into the playoffs. And it looks like that 500 team will be the St. Louis Rams. They play Kansas City, San Francisco and Seattle to finish off their regular season. NFLProPicker expects them to win two of those games, including Seattle in the last week of the season. The Rams will end up 8-8. Seattle meets Atlanta and Tampa Bay before the last week encounter with St. Louis. The Seahawks will lose all of these games (ending up at 6-10), allowing San Francisco to overtake them and end up at 7-9.

Wild Cards
The wild cards joining New Orleans and St. Louis in the first round will be either the Giants or the Bears (the other has a first-round bye) and one of the 10-6 teams – Philadelphia or Tampa Bay. The winner between these two will be based on some sort of fancy tiebreaking formula (we’re afraid NFLProPicker can’t help you there – we’ll have to leave that to the brain power of NFL officialdom).

The good news is that, with the possible exception of the Patriots in the final week(s), all contending teams will have something to play for up to Week 17. We still recall the Week 17 2009 pounding (30-7) that the Colts took at the hands of the hapless Bills as Indy coasted into the playoffs with second stringers. Hey, computer software programs have feelings too; they prefer to compile meaningful (rather than ‘tainted’) statistical information to their ever-expanding information data base.

What do you think about this article? Do you agree with the software’s selections?

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2010, 06:21 PM

Injuries piling up for 49ers and Chargers

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-8)
at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-6)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -9, Total: 44.5

Two California teams clinging to playoff hopes meet in a must-win situation for both teams on Thursday night. San Francisco is 5-8 and trails division leaders St. Louis and Seattle by one game. San Diego’s win over Kansas City last week put the 7-6 Chargers a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West standings. Both teams have major injury problems. In addition to RB Frank Gore on IR (hip), the 49ers’ top two linebackers, Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, are both suffering hand injuries and are both listed as questionable.

San Diego has a slew of offensive injuries. WR Patrick Crayton (wrist) is out, TE Antonio Gates (feet) is doubtful and WR Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. The good news is that WRs Vincent Jackson (calf) and Legedu Naanee (hamstring) will both play against San Francisco.

The 49ers are playing much better football recently, winning five of eight games after starting the season 0-5. Alex Smith will start at quarterback again for San Francisco after completing 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 40-21 win over Seattle. Smith, who missed the previous five games with a shoulder injury, is tasked with moving the football against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. San Diego is only allowing 173 passing YPG with only one game of surrendering 300 passing yards.

Despite Gore’s injury, San Francisco has rushed the ball well in its past three games with 453 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Brian Westbrook has 190 rushing yards in the three games and also caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown against Seattle last week. Rookie RB Anthony Dixon has also thrived in his increased role, gaining 147 yards on 37 carries (4.0 YPC) since Gore got hurt. TE Vernon Davis is now healthy and a much bigger factor in the offense with Alex Smith throwing him the football. Davis has nine catches for 196 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games.

The Chargers are also hot, winning five of their past six games (SU and ATS). After rushing for just 21 yards in a loss to Oakland, San Diego ripped off 207 rushing yards in the win over Kansas City, while holding the NFL’s top rushing offense to 48 yards on 17 carries. Mike Tolbert (16 rush, 66 yds, TD) and Ryan Mathews (16 rush, 65 yds, TD) had nearly identical numbers against KC, while Darren Sproles ran for 53 yards on just six carries. San Diego could have more success this week if Willis and Spikes are sidelined for San Francisco.

The running game will be key if Gates and Floyd, the team’s top two receivers, are limited on Thursday. The duo has combined for 1,442 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this year. Despite all the injuries in the passing game this season, San Diego still ranks second in the league in passing offense. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for 298 YPG with 26 TD and 11 INT and should have success against the 49ers’ 20th-ranked pass defense giving up 227 YPG. The Chargers have only won the turnover battle three times all season and have a minus-7 turnover ratio for the year.

These teams have only played twice since 2002, with San Diego winning both meetings (20-17 in 2002 and 48-19 in 2006). This spread seems a little too large for a 7-6 team possibly missing its top two receivers. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend expects San Francisco to keep the game within a touchdown margin on Thursday night.

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also expect the game to finish Under the Total.

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-16-2010, 06:30 PM

NFL odds favor Steelers at home versus Jets

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won four straight, with a 3-1 spread record in that stretch. Mike Tomlin’s club hosts its second straight home game in Sunday’s matchup against the New York Jets, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.

Sports books opened Pittsburgh as a 5 ½-point favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 36. Early wagers on the Steelers and ‘under’ moved the numbers to 6 ½ and 35 ½, respectively.

Pittsburgh’s latest win came in last Sunday’s 23-7 triumph as a nine-point home favorite against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers prevailed despite failing to notch an offensive touchdown, controlling the ball for 35 minutes.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger connected on 21-of-33 passes for 258 yards. The 28-year-old led his squad to 18 first downs, while being sacked four times.

Roethlisberger’s favorite target was wide out Hines Ward, who finished with a season-high eight catches. Ward logged a team-high 115 yards, failing to reach the end zone for a fourth straight game.

The Steelers defense held Cincinnati to 190 yards. Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley united for three interceptions, returning two for touchdowns. Woodley added a team-high two sacks, finishing with a season-high five tackles.

The lopsided affair’s combined 30 points ducked below the ‘total’ of 39 ½, making the ‘under’ 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last four games. Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham hit 3-of-3 field goal attempts, extending the Ontario native’s season streak to 9-for-9.

Pittsburgh improved to 4-2 ATS in its first six home dates, with the ‘under’ also moving to 4-2. Polamalu and Co. have allowed a stingy 14.2 PPG in that span.

New York picked up its second straight loss in last Sunday’s 10-6 setback as a five-point home favorite against the Miami Dolphins. The Jets were unable to erase an early 10-0 deficit, mustering only two field goals from placekicker Nick Folk.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez completed 17-of-44 passes for 216 yards, while logging one fumble and one interception. The second-year man guided his offense to 14 first downs in its 34 minutes of possession.

New York’s LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for a team-high 49 yards on 19 carries. The 31-year-old running back failed to score a touchdown for a seventh straight game.

The Jets defense held Miami to 131 yards, while recording five sacks. Linebacker Bart Scott and nose tackle Sione Pouha each logged a team-high seven tackles.

The tight battle’s combined 16 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 37 ½, bringing the ‘under’ to 2-1 in New York’s last three games. Miami coughed up three fumbles, while bring forced to punt 10 times.

The Jets are 4-2 in their six road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 6-0. Rex Ryan’s crew has scored 24.2 PPG in that stretch, while allowing 23.7 PPG.

New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Steelers, with the ‘under’ also collecting at 3-1.

The foes have not met since 2007, when the Jets notched a 19-16 overtime win as a nine-point home dog. Roethlisberger was held to 195 passing yards for the Steelers, tossing one interception while fumbling once.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. (PT), with CBS providing television coverage in some markets. The weather forecast in Pittsburgh calls for a high of 24 degrees, with 10 mph winds and a 30-percent chance of snow showers.

Pittsburgh will have a three-day rest, remaining on its home grass for Thursday’s matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Jets will travel again as part of next Sunday’s league slate, visiting the Chicago Bears.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 06:52 PM

Ivory could miss Sunday's game in Baltimore

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-3)
at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -1, Total: 43.5

The Saints go for their seventh straight win when they travel to chilly Baltimore to play the 9-4 Ravens. New Orleans is 5-1 SU on the road, but just 2-4 ATS. Baltimore is 2-4 ATS at home this year, despite hosting only two opponents who currently have winning records. New Orleans’ chances for another road victory get slimmer as top RB Chris Ivory is doubtful to play due to a hamstring injury. There is also injury news for each team’s tight end as Jeremy Shockey (groin) will play for New Orleans, but Todd Heap (hamstring) will not suit up for the Ravens on Sunday.

******* take:
Ivory received a PRP (platelet rich plasma) injection earlier in the week in an effort to promote soft tissue healing. If Ivory is forced to remain on the sidelines, he will certainly be missed as the team’s only reliable running back this season. Ivory is the only Saints RB with more than 200 rushing yards for the year, with 683 yards and a 5.3 YPC average. In his past four games, Ivory has rushed for 301 yards (on 5.8 YPC) and five touchdowns. Pierre Thomas will get the majority of carries now that he is finally recovered from his ankle injury that forced him to miss nine games. Thomas returned to action last week against St. Louis, rushing 12 times for 39 yards and catching four passes for 29 yards. Thomas and the rest of the Saints will not have an easy time gaining yards against a Ravens run defense ranked eighth in the league (98.8 YPG). Since the Ravens offense only averages 105 rushing YPG (ranked 21st in NFL), both teams are more comfortable throwing the football.

The Saints’ offense revolves around the arm of Drew Brees, who has had an up-and-down season. His yards (297 passing YPG), completion rate (69%) and TD passes (28) are all excellent, but he has also thrown 18 interceptions. Brees has been picked off in each of his past nine games, totaling 16 INT. Brees has also tossed 2+ TD in 10 of 13 games this year.

Joe Flacco has also had a big year, averaging 248 passing YPG with 21 TD and eight interceptions. In six home games, Flacco has tossed 11 touchdowns with only one interception. He could struggle a bit against a New Orleans defense that ranks fifth in the NFL in both passing yardage (199 YPG) and points allowed (17.6 PPG). Baltimore allows only 17.6 PPG, good for fourth in the league, but the passing defense is a middle-of-the road at 221 YPG (14th in NFL). In the past five games, New Orleans has forced 10 turnovers, while Baltimore has only mustered five takeaways.

These teams have only met four times since 1996, with Baltimore going 3-1 (SU and ATS). These two FoxSheets trends also side with Baltimore to win Sunday’s contest.

Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (49-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +25.9 units. Rating = 2*).

NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.2, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 1*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend advises bettors to play the Over:

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 31.1, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 06:54 PM

Colts 4-point NFL betting favorites vs. Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars can clinch the AFC South on Sunday if they can win at Indianapolis. The Jaguars haven’t won a division title in 11 years and they have never swept the Colts so it won’t be easy.

If the Colts can get the win they would tie Jacksonville for the division lead and would hold the edge in tiebreakers over the Jaguars.

Indianapolis is a 4-point favorite with a total of 48½ at *** Global.com.

Jacksonville has not had much success against the Colts going 5-12 since 2002 and 2-6 at Indianapolis. The Jaguars did beat the Colts earlier this season though and there is no question that Jacksonville is playing better than Indianapolis right now.

The Jaguars have won five of their last six games overall. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew is leading a rushing attack that has run for 193 yards per game in the last six games. Jones-Drew is second in the NFL betting with 1,278 rushing yards. He should find success against an Indianapolis defense that is the fourth-worst in the league. The Jaguars have also gotten 206 yards from Rashad Jennings in the last three games.

The Colts got a much-needed win last week against Tennessee as quarterback Peyton Manning played well and avoided throwing interceptions. The Colts have battled injuries all season but they might get some help on Sunday with wide receiver Austin Collie likely to return.

Here are the football betting stats for Sunday’s game:

•The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
•Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
•The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus the AFC South.
•The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
•Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.
•The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Indianapolis.
NFL totals bettors will want to know the 'over' is 6-1 in the Jaguars' last seven games. The 'over' is also 6-1 in Jacksonville's last seven road games and 9-2 in the Jaguars' last 11 versus the AFC.

The 'over' is 3-0-1 in the Colts' last four games overall and 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two division foes. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in the Colts' last five home games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 06:54 PM

NFL Betting: Seahawks a live Week 15 underdog

Baltimore is a frustrating team for bettors. Super Bowl Champions at the start of the decade, Baltimore threatens to dominate nearly every year but never quite gets there.

Joe Flacco was expected to be the answer at quarterback but Joe hasn’t stepped to the elite level of Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning yet – or even Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.

Flacco can still let you down. The Ravens beat the Jets on the first Sunday night of the season and won at Pittsburgh, but they also lost to Cincinnati and had to get out of jail last Monday night against Houston. That makes a man nervous when he has put down the cash.

Despite all that, Baltimore minus the point is a good bet this weekend. New Orleans has put its early season, post-Super Bowl blues behind it and the Saints are not surrendering their championship without a fight. On a neutral field you’d expect Brees to outgun Flacco, but this game is in Baltimore and the impact of the weather can’t be discounted. Baltimore minus one at home to New Orleans with Sports Interaction is the pick.

Elsewhere, Jacksonville is a team that’s face-to-face with its destiny this Sunday when the Jaguars travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts. The road to the AFC South was always going through Indianapolis but the Colts haven’t looked this vulnerable since Jim Mora doubted their chances of making the playoffs 10 years ago.

It’s hard to have complete faith in Jacksonville because Peyton Manning is so much better a quarterback than David Garrard. Garrard, like the Ravens’ Flacco, can have huge days, but he can be pretty lousy as well. The Jags’ game plan is about eating the clock and pounding the ball but if you fall behind that plan becomes very flawed.

Question marks over the Jags’ ability mount a game winning drive as time ticks away notwithstanding, five points is just too much for the Colts to lay in what is in reality a very evenly matched contest. Indy will probably still win, but not by much. Jacksonville plus five at Indianapolis with Sports Interaction is the pick.

Finally, a pick where the formbook goes out the window. This year there’s no comparison between the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is going to the playoffs and could win the Super Bowl, while Seattle’s only hope of football in January is if the rest of the NFC West is worse than it is.

That said, the Falcons are laying 6½ points when they fly 2500 miles northwest to Seattle. It’s a long flight and the game will be played in miserable weather, far from the comforts of the Georgia Dome. The points are too much to resist – Seattle plus 6½ at home to Atlanta is the third and final pick of the week.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 06:55 PM

Cassel injury slows NFL odds for Chiefs, Rams

The season very well could be on the line on Sunday when the two teams from the Show Me State duke it out at the Edward Jones Dome in NFL betting action. The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs will take on the NFC West co-leaders, the St. Louis Rams.

This game might be a matter of survival for the Chiefs. Should they lose this one, the San Diego Chargers would take command of the AFC West perhaps once and for all. It would become the first time that KC didn't control its own destiny for the divisional crown all season long, and it would come just one week after getting mauled by the Bolts, 31-0, at Qualcomm Stadium.

That may all boil down to the health of QB Matt Cassel who sat out last week's game after having an emergency appendectomy in the middle of the previous week. Obviously, the results with the combination of QB Tyler Palko and QB Brodie Croyle aren't even worth noting, as the offense was overmatched the entire game and never got anything going. So Cassel, who has thrown for 2,503 yards and 23 TDs against just four picks this year, would be a welcome addition into the fold again.

As always though, the key for Kansas City is going to be its ground game. Both Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles have had great seasons for the Chiefs, combining for 1,940 yards and eight scores on the campaign. A few good games for Jones could mean 1,000-yard seasons for both.

Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is one to watch as well. Bowe has 59 receptions for 888 yards this year, but his true contribution to the team is in the form of an NFL high 14 TDs.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams know that this is a big time spot to try to make up a game in the standings and to put some distance between themselves and the Seattle Seahawks. Head coach Pete Carroll's men are playing against the best team in the conference this weekend, the Atlanta Falcons, and all that a loss would do is probably put both teams in the exact same spot for next week.

We should just stop and hand the Rookie of the Year honors on the offensive side of the ball to St. Louis QB Sam Bradford. With just 116 yards in this one, Bradford will become a 3,000-yard passer, and he will be the only man on this side of the ball to reach a typical milestone for the season as a rookie.

Speaking of milestones, Rams running back Steven Jackson hit his last week, reaching the 1,000-yard rushing plateau for a sixth-straight season. Jackson has 1,081 yards following this 96-yard effort against the Saints, and has rushed for four TDs in 2010.

The defensive line for the Rams has been tremendous, with the combination of James Hall, Chris Long, CJ Ah You and Fred Robbins owning 23 of the team's 36 sacks on the year. If these men can get after Cassel or whomever is taking snaps for the Chiefs, St. Louis is going to be a tough team to tame.

Since 1997, these two teams have only met four times, with the Chiefs going 4-0 SU and ATS. Some big time numbers have hit the board as well in this series. Kansas City has averaged 40.5 PPG since '97 against its instate rivals, though the teams haven't met since a 31-17 win for the Chiefs here in the Gateway to the West in 2006.

The NFL odds aren't posted for this game due to Cassel's injury status, but we expect to see them relatively level when they do come out before Sunday's tussle.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 06:56 PM

Saints draw early NFL betting action versus Ravens

It is crunch time in the NFL for these two teams as the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens are looking to keep their divisional title hopes alive when they clash this Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is set for 10 a.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast on FOX.

Sportsinteraction.com currently has Baltimore as a one-point favorite for this game after the Ravens were opened as a 2 ½-point favorite earlier in the week. The ‘over/under’ line is set at 43 ½.

It is easy to understand why the early money is on New Orleans as it comes into this game with momentum clearly on its side. The defending champs stumbled out of the gate to a 4-3 record and appeared to be suffering the effects of a Super Bowl hangover. The Saints turned things around in Week 8 with a 20-10 win over Pittsburgh as a 1 ½-point home favorite and have now won six-straight games to run their record to 10-3 straight up (6-7 against the spread).

They are currently in second place in the NFC South, a game behind Atlanta.

The primary reason for the turnaround has been the offense’s ability to put points on the board. New Orleans only managed to score 30 points or more once in its first seven games, but has crossed that mark in five of its last six games.

The Saints rank third in the league in scoring; averaging 25.4 points per game. Quarterback Drew Brees is once again lighting things up through the air and the running game is finally coming around with the return of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, who both missed a substantial amount of playing time this season due to injuries.

Baltimore is just one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but I doubt that anyone would use the word momentum to describe its current state of affairs. The Ravens suffered a serious setback two weeks ago with a 13-10 loss to the Steelers as a three-point home favorite. They followed this up by blowing a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter, forcing them to squeak out a 34-28 win over Houston in overtime as a three-point favorite on the road.

The net effect of the past few weeks is an overall record of 9-4 SU and 6-6-1 ATS. Baltimore is just 2-2 SU in the division, while the Steelers have the edge at 4-1, so another loss would most likely send the Ravens on the wild card route in the playoffs.

Consistency on offense has been the Ravens’ primary problem this season as they have struggled to effectively run or pass the ball for any meaningful stretch of time. They are 18th in the league overall, 14th in passing and 21st in rushing. Quarterback Joe Flacco is completing 62.6 percent of his passes which is down from last season and RB Ray Rice has rushed for 898 yards, but is averaging less than four yards a carry after averaging 5.3 yards last season.

New Orleans is 2-3 ATS in its last five games on the road and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games overall.

Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games and 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last nine games overall.

The Saints’ defense gave up a combined 57 points in its last two road games so Baltimore should have some success putting some points on the board. The big question here is can the Ravens’ defense keep New Orleans out of the end zone? This is easily the best offense they will have faced since holding New England to 23 points on the road in Week 6. Last week’s meltdown against Houston does not provide a clear vote of confidence, so take the Saints and the 1 ½ points in this one

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2010, 10:01 AM

Colts 4-point NFL betting favorites vs. Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars can clinch the AFC South on Sunday if they can win at Indianapolis. The Jaguars haven’t won a division title in 11 years and they have never swept the Colts so it won’t be easy.

If the Colts can get the win they would tie Jacksonville for the division lead and would hold the edge in tiebreakers over the Jaguars.

Indianapolis is a 4-point favorite with a total of 48½ at *** Global.com.

Jacksonville has not had much success against the Colts going 5-12 since 2002 and 2-6 at Indianapolis. The Jaguars did beat the Colts earlier this season though and there is no question that Jacksonville is playing better than Indianapolis right now.

The Jaguars have won five of their last six games overall. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew is leading a rushing attack that has run for 193 yards per game in the last six games. Jones-Drew is second in the NFL betting with 1,278 rushing yards. He should find success against an Indianapolis defense that is the fourth-worst in the league. The Jaguars have also gotten 206 yards from Rashad Jennings in the last three games.

The Colts got a much-needed win last week against Tennessee as quarterback Peyton Manning played well and avoided throwing interceptions. The Colts have battled injuries all season but they might get some help on Sunday with wide receiver Austin Collie likely to return.

Here are the football betting stats for Sunday’s game:

•The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
•Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
•The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus the AFC South.
•The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
•Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.
•The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Indianapolis.
NFL totals bettors will want to know the 'over' is 6-1 in the Jaguars' last seven games. The 'over' is also 6-1 in Jacksonville's last seven road games and 9-2 in the Jaguars' last 11 versus the AFC.

The 'over' is 3-0-1 in the Colts' last four games overall and 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two division foes. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in the Colts' last five home games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-18-2010, 10:02 AM

Bears, Vikings prep for icy Monday Night Football betting

First the head coach, then the quarterback and now the stadium roof. Everything, it seems, has collapsed this season for the Minnesota Vikings.

The 5-8 Vikings are going to meet the NFC-North Division leading 9-4 Chicago Bears on Monday night at a different home venue with a probable new quarterback.

No Metrodome and most likely no Brett Favre. No Minnesota victory probably either.

Favre has a strained right shoulder and reportedly no feeling in his right hand. Backup Tarvaris Jackson is out for the season with turf toe.

The fallout from this means Joe Webb, a rookie who had been playing wide receiver, is going to be Minnesota’s starting quarterback in a for-sure scaled-down offense. The Vikings signed veteran frequent discard Patrick Ramsey for quarterback insurance.

As of Friday morning there were no odds out for the game.

The game is going to be played at TCF Bank Stadium, home of the University of Minnesota, with the Metrodome roof not repaired after collapsing last week under the weight of about 17 inches of snow. This is going to be the Vikings’ first home outdoor game in 29 years.

There’s a 40 percent chance of snow for the matchup, which begins at 5:30 p.m. PT and will be televised by ESPN. Temperatures are expected to be in the low teens with a wind chill factor that could reach 18 below zero. All this could turn the field, which does not have heating coils beneath the surface, into a frozen, slippery, icy mess.

Chicago has won 10 straight outdoor games in December and January versus warm-weather or dome teams. The Bears clinch the NFC North with a victory.

The Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 December contests. They are 0-6 ATS against opponents with a winning mark.

After unpopular Brad Childress was fired, the Vikings perked up for interim coach Leslie Frazier defeating Washington and Buffalo. But this past Monday, the Vikings allowed a season-worst 395 yards in a 21-3 loss to the New York Giants at Ford Field in Detroit with Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings were plus 4 ½ with the combined 24 points going well ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

Favre didn’t play, ending his record streak of 297 consecutive starts.

The Bears have already faced and defeated two third-string quarterbacks in Tyler Thigpen of Miami and Drew Stanton of Detroit.

Chicago defeated the Lions, 24-20, two weeks ago failing to cover as five-point road favorites with the combined 44 points nudging ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

However, the Bears looked terrible this past Sunday in snowy, winter conditions at home falling to New England, 36-7, as three-point underdogs. The combined 43 points went ‘over’ the 37 ½-point total.

Chicago’s offense is geared toward passing with quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears rank just 25th in rushing averaging 98.6 yards on the ground.

The brutal weather could play havoc with the Bears’ aerial attack. Cutler threw for three touchdowns and 237 yards when Chicago defeated Minnesota, 27-13, in Week 10 as one-point road favorites. The combined 40 points dipped ‘under’ the 41-point total.

The Bears picked off Favre three times in the victory, while holding Adrian Peterson to 51 yards rushing. Peterson entered this weekend ranked No. 5 in rushing with 1,149 yards.

Chicago is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games played in December. The Bears have won five of six away matchups this season. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of Chicago’s last five road outings. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of Minnesota’s last five games.

Minnesota is 7-1 the past eight times hosting the Bears, although this is more like a neutral site.

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