The Bum's Week # 13 NCAAF Best Bets + More !

[StarDust Bum]

The Bum's Friday's NCAAF Best Bets !

Friday, November 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 11:00 AM ET Rutgers +3 500
Rutgers - Over 45 500

Ohio - 11:00 AM ET Ohio -3.5 500
Kent State - Under 47 500

West Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -2.5 500
Pittsburgh - Over 38 500

Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -24 500
Eastern Michigan - Under 59 500

Western Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Bowling Green +7 500
Bowling Green - Over 52 500

Buffalo - 2:00 PM ET Buffalo +1 500
Akron - Over 41.5 500

Central Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Toledo -4 500
Toledo - Over 50.5 500

Southern Methodist - 2:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -1 500

East Carolina - Over 70 500

Auburn - 2:30 PM ET Auburn +4 500
Alabama - Under 57.5 500

UCLA - 3:30 PM ET UCLA +12 500
Arizona State - Over 48.5 500

Colorado - 3:30 PM ET Nebraska -16.5 500
Nebraska - Under 50 500

Southern Mississippi - 6:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +3.5 500
Tulsa - Over 67 500

Arizona - 7:00 PM ET Oregon -19 500
Oregon - Under 62.5 500

Boise State - 10:15 PM ET Boise State -13.5 500
Nevada - Over 68.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn is 4.5-point underdog at Alabama


AUBURN TIGERS (11-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-2)

Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Alabama -4.5, Total: 58

The game of the week takes place in Tuscaloosa as Auburn visits Alabama in the 75th installment of the Iron Bowl. This marks the first Iron Bowl featuring both schools ranked in the Top 10 since 1994, when No. 4 Alabama beat No. 6 Auburn 24-14.

Although the Tide have two elite running backs, the Tigers have done a much better job running the football, ranking third in the nation with 308 rushing YPG including six straight 300-yard efforts. Cam Newton has 39 TD this year (21 pass, 17 rush, 1 receiving), scoring at least twice in every game. He only has six interceptions on the season with just one pick in his past five games. Newton has played his best football against top competition this year, rushing for 194 YPG with 11 total TD in games versus South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU. His favorite receiver is junior Darvin Adams who has 13 catches for 211 yards and 3 TD in his past three games. Adams had four catches for 138 yards with a touchdown against Alabama last year.

If Alabama is going to hand Auburn its first loss of the season, the Tide will need to find a way to gain yards on the ground. Although Alabama won last year’s meeting 26-21, it only amassed 73 yards on 35 carries. Mark Ingram was held to 30 yards on 16 attempts. Ingram has failed to rush for 100 yards in seven straight games this year with a pedestrian 4.6 YPC average over this stretch. Ingram averaged 6.1 YPC in last year’s Heisman season. On the flip side, Alabama’s passing offense (37th-best in nation) has been nearly as effective as its highly-respected rushing attack (ranked 31st). Senior QB Greg McElroy has averaged 235 passing YPG with 10 TD and 2 INT in his past six games. WR Julio Jones has four of those scores with 41 catches for 563 yards in the six-game stretch.

Auburn is 4-1 ATS in the past five series meetings, but the FoxSheets provide a five-star reason to pick against Auburn and play on Alabama Friday:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in conference games.(29-3 since 1992.) (90.6%, +25.7 units. Rating = 5*).

The past five games in this series have all gone Under the Total. These FoxSheets trends also lean towards the Under in this game:

ALABAMA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.The average score was ALABAMA 27.3, OPPONENT 11.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Under - Any team against the total (AUBURN) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.(32-9 since 1992.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/26/10 13-14-1 48.15% -1200 Detail
11/25/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/23/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/20/10 27-20-2 57.45% +2500 Detail
11/19/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/18/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/17/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
11/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/13/10 25-23-0 52.08% -150 Detail
11/12/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/11/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/10/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/06/10 18-28-0 39.13% -6400 Detail
11/05/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/04/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/02/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals 102-106-3 49.04% -7300

Saturday, November 27Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut -2 500
Connecticut - Under 55 500

Boston College - 12:00 PM ET Boston College +3.5 500
Syracuse - Over 37 500

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -16.5 500
Ohio State - Over 63.5 500

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Penn State +1.5 500
Penn State - Under 51 500

Central Florida - 12:00 PM ET Central Florida -26 500
Memphis - Over 55 500

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -23 500
Virginia Tech - Under 57.5 500

Tulane - 12:00 PM ET Marshall -10.5 500
Marshall - Over 55 500

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET South Florida +11.5 500
Miami - Over 47 500

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -3.5 500
Purdue - Over 53.5 500

Kentucky - 12:20 PM ET Kentucky +2.5 500
Tennessee - Over 58.5 500

Kansas - 12:30 PM ET Missouri -24.5 500
Missouri - Over 51 500

Hawaii - 3:00 PM ET Hawaii -27.5 500
New Mexico State - Under 58.5 500

Louisiana State - 3:30 PM ET Louisiana State +3.5 500
Arkansas - Over 54 500

Washington - 3:30 PM ET Washington +7 500
California - Over 49.5 500

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -2 500
Florida State - Over 50.5 500

North Carolina State - 3:30 PM ET Maryland +2 500
Maryland - Under 52 500

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -15 500
Minnesota - Under 51.5 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 3:30 PM ET Rice +3 500
Rice - Over 67 500

Northwestern - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -23 500
Wisconsin - Over 57.5 500

Arkansas State - 3:30 PM ET Florida International -4.5 500
Florida International - Over 62.5 500

Florida Atlantic - 3:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee St. -5.5 500
Middle Tennessee St. - Under 48.5 500

UL Lafayette - 3:30 PM ET UL Monroe -7 500
UL Monroe - Under 56.5 500

Western Kentucky - 3:30 PM ET Western Kentucky +13 500
Troy - Under 61.5 500

Brigham Young - 3:30 PM ET Utah -8 500
Utah - Over 50 500

Kansas State - 4:00 PM ET Kansas State -14 500
North Texas - Under 59 500

Texas Christian - 4:00 PM ET Texas Christian -43 500
New Mexico - Over 56 500

South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Clemson +2.5 500
Clemson - Over 45 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi +3 500
Mississippi - Over 54 500

Oregon State - 7:30 PM ET Stanford -13 500
Stanford - Over 57 500

Wake Forest - 7:30 PM ET Vanderbilt -5 500
Vanderbilt - Under 49.5 500

Georgia Tech - 7:45 PM ET Georgia Tech +13.5 500
Georgia - Over 58 500

Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma +2.5 500
Oklahoma State - Over 67.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +9 500
Texas Tech - Over 69 500

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -13 500
San Jose State - Over 54.5 500

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Southern California -4.5 500
Southern California - Over 49.5 500

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET San Diego State -23.5 500
San Diego State - Under 59.5 500

Idaho - 10:00 PM ET Idaho +10.5 500
Fresno State - Over 60 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Betting Odds: Sooners at Cowboys

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Oklahoma State.

Instead the Cowboys are 10-1 and can clinch first-place in the Big 12 South Division standings and earn their first berth in the conference championship game with a home victory Saturday night (5 p.m., PT on ABC) against Oklahoma.

College football oddsmakers believe the Cowboys can accomplish this installing Oklahoma State as 2 ½-point home favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 67. It’s only the second time in 43 meetings Oklahoma State is favored against its long-standing in-state and conference rival.

All this is heady stuff for Oklahoma State, which had never had a 10-win season before.

Oklahoma, which has won nine of 11 games and is 5-2 in league, also needs a victory in this matchup to reach the Big 12 title game. The Sooners have played in seven Big 12 championship games, winning six of them.

The Sooners have defeated the Cowboys seven consecutive times going 6-1 ATS. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 5-0-1 ATS as a conference underdog of three points or less.

Oklahoma shut out Oklahoma State, 27-0, last year in Norman as eight-point favorites. The combined 27 points fell well ‘under’ the 48-point total.

Expect the two teams to score far more points this time. There are great skill-position players on both squads.

The two quarterbacks – Landry Jones of Oklahoma and Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State – are each tied for second in the nation in touchdown passes with 30. Weeden rates No. 2 in passing yards with 3,780.

The Cowboys’ Justin Blackmon is No. 1 in the country with 1,650 receiving yards and is tops among wide receivers in touchdowns with 19. Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles is third in receiving yards with 1,309 and has the most receptions with 106. Blackmon is second in passes caught with 94.

Both teams have outstanding runners, too.

DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma is tied among the nation-leaders in touchdowns with 19. He has a combined 1,467 rushing and receiving yards. The Cowboys’ Kendall Hunter is No. 3 in rushing with 1,461 yards and has 16 touchdowns.

Oklahoma State ranks No. 1 in total offense averaging 552 yards a game. The Cowboys are second in passing yards and rate third overall in points per game at 45.3.

The Cowboys, however, are vulnerable on defense ranking 78th in total defense allowing 396.9 yards per contest. They are particularly soft in pass coverage rating 108th giving up 258 yards through the air per matchup.

The Sooners have exploited this averaging 38.5 points during their last four visits to Stillwater. This is Oklahoma’s State final home game. Under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys have failed to cover in their last home contest during the past four years.

Oklahoma beat the Cowboys, 61-41, in its last trip two years ago covering as 9 ½-point road favorites.

Oklahoma has scored at least 43 points in three of its past four games. The Sooners are 13th in total offense averaging 470.3 yards per contest and rank 16th in points scored at 36.6 per matchup.

The Sooners defeated Baylor, 53-24, last week as eight-point road favorites with the combined 77 points going ‘over’ the 64-point total.

Oklahoma is surrendering an average of 369 yards a game, which ranks 62nd. The Sooners, though, are yielding a very respectable 20.4 points a game, which rates 29th.

Prior to beating Baylor, however, the Sooners had failed to cover in their past five road contests.

The home team is 9-3 ATS in the series. The ‘over’ has cashed in 39 of Oklahoma State’s last 53 home games.

The weather forecast is for a clear night with temperatures in the 40s and six mph winds.

[StarDust Bum]

Rivalry Games


**Florida at Florida State**

--Most books are listing Florida State (8-3 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) as a two-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take UF on the money line for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

--This is the first time the Seminoles have been favored in this rivalry game since 2004. That’s the same year that the Gators sent Ron Zook out as a winner and won in Tallahassee for the first time since 1986. On the night FSU named its field after Bobby Bowden, Zook’s team won a 20-13 decision as a seven-point underdog.

--Florida (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) bounced back from a 36-14 loss to South Carolina two weeks ago by blasting Appalachian St. by a 48-10 count as a 24-point home favorite. Jordan Reed had three rushing touchdowns and also threw a TD pass to QB John Brantley on a trick play. Chris Rainey had 87 rushing yards and one score on just six carries.

--FSU kept its ACC Atlantic title hopes alive last week by winning 30-16 at Maryland as a four-point favorite. With the Terrapins in the red zone and threatening to tie in the final minute, Nick Moody intercepted a pass and returned it 96 yards for a touchdown.

--If Maryland beats N.C. St. on Saturday in College Park, the ‘Noles will win the Atlantic Division and face Va. Tech next week in the ACC Championship Game.

--FSU has failed to cover the number in four straight games until taking the cash at Maryland last week. For the season, the ‘Noles are 5-1 SU but only 2-3 ATS.

--Florida has only played three true road games this year, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. During Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure, the Gators are 2-1 ATS in three games as road underdogs. The lone non-cover came in a 31-6 loss at Alabama earlier this season.

--Florida WR Andre Debose, who is also a dynamic returner on special teams, is “questionable” with an ankle injury.

--Florida has won six in a row over FSU, outscoring the ‘Noles by a combined score of 127-37 in the last three meetings.

--“This is certainly a big revenge game for Florida St., but that’s hardly enough to inspire me to back the Seminoles,” VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe said. “Both teams have plenty of flaws, but I prefer Florida’s defense. If the line moves to three, I’ll consider taking the Gators. If not, I’m probably going to pass on the game.”

--Kick-off is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**South Carolina at Clemson**

--Most sports books are listing South Carolina (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 45. Bettors can take the Tigers to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

--Clemson (6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) has won three consecutive home games since losing 30-21 to Miami back on Oct. 2. For the season, the Tigers are 5-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS at home.

--Steve Spurrier’s team falls into a look-ahead situation in this spot since it is making the school’s first appearance in the SEC title game next week against Auburn. Will that factor deter gamblers from backing the Gamecocks, or will the fact that this is a rivalry game override the look-ahead factor?

--Going into last week’s game against Troy, South Carolina’s highest scoring output during Spurrier’s six-year tenure was 52 against Middle Tennessee back in 2006. But the Gamecocks scored 56 on the Trojans in the first half alone en route to a 69-24 win as 21 ½-point home favorites.

--South Carolina freshman RB Marcus Lattimore has been the catalyst all year long. He is second in the SEC in rushing with 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns. Lattimore averages 5.1 yards per carry and also has 18 catches for 287 yards and two more TDs.

--South Carolina is 5-3 ATS in eight games as a road favorite on Spurrier’s watch.

--When these teams met in Columbia last season, South Carolina captured a 34-17 win as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The 51 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 44-point total. In fact, the ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in seven straight games for Clemson. The Tigers have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 overall. As for the Gamecocks, they have watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 overall, 2-2 in their road assignments.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Auburn rallied from a 24-0 deficit to beat Alabama 28-27 on Friday as a four-point road underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a plus-155 payout (paid $155 on $100 wagers. I have to give credit to AU head coach Gene Chizik, who opted not to go for a two-point conversion when his team scored a touchdown when it was down 24. (I thought that was a mistake at the time, but it obviously turned out to be the right move. Had they gone for two and not made it, who knows how the game would’ve turned out?)

--Trailing 24-7 at halftime, Auburn was a pick 'em for second-half wagers. That made Auburn +17 for the adjusted line.

--Georgia will play host to Ga. Tech as a 13 ½-point favorite Saturday with a total of 58. The Dawgs beat the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta last year, but Paul Johnson’s team rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit to win in Athens two seasons ago.

--Arkansas will take on LSU in Little Rock as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’ The total is 54 ½ at most spots.

--I still say Rich Rodriguez gets fired by Michigan after it loses by double digits for the fifth time this season Saturday at Ohio St.

[StarDust Bum]

Blackmon expected to play Saturday night

OKLAHOMA SOONERS (9-2)
at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -3, Total: 51.5

Oklahoma State guns for its fifth straight win (SU and ATS) and a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game when it hosts rival Oklahoma on Saturday night. Oklahoma has exploded offensively in its past two games with 98 points and 1,024 total yards of offense. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden has been playing out of this world during their win streak with 383 passing YPG, 9 TD and just 1 INT. He may not be able to keep up this pace with star WR Justin Blackmon hobbled. Blackmon suffered an ankle injury in the second half of last week’s win over Kansas and was reportedly in a protective boot and using crutches earlier in the week. He did play through the injury last week, and is also expected to play Saturday.

******* take:
Blackmon is arguably the best receiver in the nation with an FBS-leading 156 receiving YPG and 9.4 catches per game, which is second in the nation behind Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles (9.6). Blackmon will not be 100 percent, but Weeden still has plenty of viable options in the passing game. He can also hand the ball off to Kendall Hunter who ranks fifth in the nation with 133 rushing YPG.

The Sooners have dominated this Bedlam “rivalry” in recent years as Bob Stoops has won nine of 11 times he has faced the Cowboys. Oklahoma has won the past seven meetings by a whopping 22.7 PPG including last year’s 27-0 shutout when OSU was ranked No. 12 in the BCS. Broyles, who has nine 100-yard receiving games this year, gained 312 all-purpose yards in last year’s win over OSU. TD machine DeMarco Murray has three scores in two career games vs. OSU.

Despite the Sooners recent dominance in the series, the FoxSheets are siding with Oklahoma State on Saturday, especially because of these two trends:

Play On - Home favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG). (60-24 since 1992.) (71.4%, +33.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more last game. (32-8 since 1992.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*).

And this seven-star FoxSheets whopper is all you need to know to bet the Over.

Mike Gundy is 13-0 OVER (+13.0 Units) in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 44.9, OPPONENT 30.6 - (Rating = 7*).