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**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:32 PM

NCAA Football Odds: Aggies battle Longhorns

One of the nation's oldest college football rivalries is renewed this Thursday evening when the Texas A&M Aggies and Texas Longhorns meet in Austin. It's the 117th time the two schools have met on a gridiron, and apparently the last matchup as Big 12 South opponents.

Bragging rights are once again on the line in this year's meeting, but that's not all. The Aggies have surged into the BCS rankings at No. 17 and will be playing for a possible share of the Big 12 South title. A&M doesn't have much chance to represent the division in a three-way tie since the Ags would still likely trail both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma on the BCS list, with rankings in that poll serving as the tiebreaker.

Still, a road win over the Longhorns would leave Texas A&M 9-3 straight up and push the Ags forward a spot on the bowl invitation list.

Texas wishes it was playing for a more attractive bowl invite. The Longhorns (5-6 straight up, 3-8 against the NCAAF spread) have to win just to become bowl eligible.

Thursday's odds opened with the Aggies favored by a field goal at Bookmaker.com. The total has settled at 47 in the early going.

Mike Sherman's Aggies ran their win streak to five with last Saturday's 9-6 win at home over Nebraska. A Kyle Field record 90,079 fans watched the Aggies triumph as 2½-point underdogs in the field-goal battle.

Bo Pelini and the Cornhuskers will tell you they not only had to battle A&M's 12th man, but a 13th, 14th and 15th man on the field wearing black-&-white stripes. Nebraska was penalized a record 16 times for 145 yards to the Aggies' two flags.

The win was not only Texas A&M's fifth in a row straight up, but the fifth consecutive time the Aggies beat the spread to leave them 7-4 at the college football betting window this campaign.

Texas avoided running their losing skid to five with a 51-17 win at home over an overmatched Florida Atlantic squad. The Longhorns easily covered the 21½-point line to also stop a four-game losing streak against the spread.

Texas owns a dominating 75-36 edge in the all-time series with five ties. The Longhorns have won eight of the last 10 matchups, covering nine of the last 15.

The most recent meeting (Nov. 26, 2009) turned into a battle between the two quarterbacks, Jerrod Johnson for A&M and Texas' Colt McCoy. The squads combined for over 1,100 yards of offense in the Longhorns' 49-39 win as 20½-point favorites that went well 'over' the 63-point total.

A&M's last win in Austin came in 2006 when the Aggies were 13½-point road 'dogs. A defensive, 12-7 skirmish broke out in that get-together.

ESPN has the broadcast from Memorial Stadium on the UT campus with kickoff set for just after 5 p.m. PT. A rather warm, muggy week in this general area of the Lone Star State is forecast to change abruptly at some point during Thanksgiving Day. Exactly when remains uncertain, but there is a 40 percent chance of rain with a daytime high of 70ºF cooling down into the 40s once the expected front pushes through.

Despite attending a dozen or more of these matchups in person and seeing 30 or more on the telly, I'm still reluctant to suggest a winning side due to the ample maroon hanging in my wardrobe. Despite my allegiance to A&M, it's hard to believe Texas won't be going bowling this season and will be playing the 'Horns plus 140 on the money line.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:33 PM

Auburn Tigers look to defy odds at Alabama

The Iron Bowl is one of the most fierce games in the entire nation, as two SEC West rivals collide in a game that quite often has implications both on the conference stage and the National Championship picture.

This year, we already know that the Auburn Tigers are two wins away from playing in the BCS Championship Game, and this is their biggest test left on the schedule. The Alabama Crimson Tide aren't playing for a title, but they are playing for the pride of beating their arch rivals for the third straight season and could be playing for a spot in a BCS bowl game if the chips fall properly over the course of the next two weekends.

All talk about Auburn football begins with the play of QB Cam Newton. Discussions about NCAA allegations aside, Newton is the pride and joy of the school, and he is starting to put together a season that looks awfully like the one that QB Vince Young had with the Texas Longhorns.

A dual threat on the ground and through the air, Newton has thrown for 2,038 yards and rushed for 1,297 more. He has 21 TDs in the air and 17 more on the ground. Just like Young, he is leading a team that many consider to be the second best in the nation, and he is tearing through a schedule that is chock-full of potential piranhas.

Young won the National Championship that year by beating the unbeaten Pac-10 team, the USC Trojans. If Newton can clear these next two tough hurdles, he'll be leading Auburn against another unbeaten Pac-10 team in all likelihood, the Oregon Ducks.

There are two major questions about the Tigers this year that really have yet to be answered. The first is whether or not this defense is going to come back to bite them where the sun don't shine. Allowing 355.7 YPG and 24.9 PPG is just too many for a team for a team that is contending for a title most seasons, and many think that this will be the downfall of the squad.

The second concern is the fact there really hasn't been much of a road schedule to discuss. The toughest road test of the year to date came at the Mississippi State Bulldogs, where the Tigers escaped with a 17-14 victory before we really knew that either team was going to be all that special. It was one of two SEC road games that ended with Auburn winning by three points, the other coming at the Kentucky Wildcats. The Ole Miss Rebels provided no real test.

Playing in Tuscaloosa will clearly be the biggest hurdle of the year.

The Crimson Tide fell victim to circumstance this year, as they had to take on a gauntlet of teams that were coming off of their midseason bye weeks. Both the LSU Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks tripped them up, and now they are faced with the likelihood of a second-tier bowl game the year after their National Championship run.

Statistically speaking, this is still one of the best teams in America. Alabama has an experienced offense with names like QB Greg McElroy, WR Julio Jones, RB Trent Richardson and RB Mark Ingram, and its defense ranks No. 3 in the land in scoring at 12.8 PPG.

Popular thought suggests that the Crimson Tide are going to roll in this game to take away the National Championship dreams of their arch rivals. We aren't so certain that's the case, though. It almost seems like a contrarian thought to think that Newton can topple the Tide, but we have seen some special players before, and this is clearly a special, special player.

Newton's speed single-handedly beat the Bayou Bengals this year, and he might be able to do the same thing on Friday night in Tuscaloosa. That said, we'll take all 4 ½ points given to us on the NCAA football odds that you can find at a plethora of sports books

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:34 PM

Injuries slow Trojans, Irish betting odds
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When beating Army is considered a big deal, then you know it’s been a disappointing season for Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish did become bowl eligible at least following their 27-3 win against the Black Knights, covering as 8 ½-point NCAAF spread favorites, in the first football game played at the new Yankee Stadium this past Saturday. The combined 30 points went ‘under’ the 50-point total.

Now the Irish, 6-5, try to keep the momentum of a two-game winning streak in a matchup with Southern Cal in Los Angeles on Saturday at 5 p.m. PT on ABC.

The Trojans are enduring a tough year, too, being ineligible for a bowl this season and next following NCAA sanctions.

USC was hoping for a 10-win season to lessen the sting of those sanctions, but is 7-4 following a 36-7 loss at Oregon State. The Trojans fell as three-point road favorites. The combined 43 points went ‘under’ the 58 ½-point total. USC hasn’t won in the state of Oregon since 2005.

“We had no energy, we had no rhythm,” Southern Cal tailback Marc Tyler said about the loss in which USC fell behind 20-0 and finished with just 255 yards in the game.

Tyler, the Trojans’ leading rusher with 820 yards and 10 touchdowns, aggravated an ankle sprain. The Trojans also lost their star sophomore quarterback, Matt Barkley. He left right before halftime with a high left ankle sprain.

College football oddsmakers are waiting on Barkley’s status before putting up a betting line. Barkley has completed 63 percent of his passes, while throwing for 2,593 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.

Senior Mitch Mustain is Barkley’s backup. He completed eight of 17 passes for 60 yards filling in against the Beavers. He would make his first start for USC if Barkley can’t go. Mustain started eight games for Arkansas back in 2006. Walk-on John Manoogian would be the Trojans’ No. 2 quarterback if Barkley isn’t available.

USC coach Lane Kiffin said X-rays on Barkley’s left ankle were negative and he was hopeful Barkley could play.

C.J. Gable may get most of USC’s carries if Tyler can’t play and prized freshman Dillon Baxter is held out again. Baxter didn’t make the trip to Oregon State after what Kiffin characterized as an inadvertent contact with an agent. Gable rushed for 57 yards on 10 carries and scored the Trojans’ lone touchdown against Oregon State.

Notre Dame is banged-up, too. Freshman quarterback Tommy Rees has started the last two games – victories against Army and 28-3 versus Utah as five-point home ‘dogs – replacing injured Dayne Crist.

The Irish also are without star tight end Kyle Rudolph, leading rusher Armando Allen and defensive tackle Ian Williams.

Rees hit on 13 of 20 throws versus Army for 213 yards and one touchdown and one interception, which occurred on the first possession of the game. Rees has one of the best targets in the country in Michael Floyd, who has nine touchdowns and 830 receiving yards.

Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown during the past 11 quarters.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six of Notre Dame’s last eight games. The ‘over’ has cashed in six of USC’s last eight games.

The Irish, however, don’t have a good history when playing at Southern Cal. The Trojans have won the last eight times against Notre Dame, covering six of the eight. USC won 34-27 at Notre Dame last year as 10-pont favorites. The combined 61 points went ‘over’ the 50 ½-point total.

USC rolled past Notre Dame, 38-3, at home two years ago as 33-point favorites. The Trojans beat Notre Dame, 44-24, at home in 2006, 41-10 at home in 2004 and 44-13 at home in 2002. Those victories were achieved under Pete Carroll.

Now the coaching matchup is Brian Kelly versus Kiffin.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:36 PM

College football betting enters big week

Last week's BCS rankings went unchanged among the top 10 schools. With the trio at the very top–Oregon, Auburn and TCU–idle this past Saturday, the changes should once again be few though a couple of schools did their part to throw a wrench into the computers.

The No. 1 Ducks put their 10-0 record (6-4 against the spread) on the line this Friday night in Eugene against the Arizona Wildcats (7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS). A few hours before that kickoff, No. 2 Auburn (11-0, 7-4) will visit Alabama (9-2, 7-4) in what should be the only battle between top 10 BCS schools this week. The Crimson Tide are off a 63-7 rout of Georgia State as 44-point favorites, entering the contest ranked 11th and in good shape to move up a notch or two in this week's poll.

No. 3 TCU (11-0, 6-5) will close out its regular season in Albuquerque on Saturday against a 1-10 New Mexico team that has been beaten by an average score around 42-17 this season.

Boise State could slip ahead of TCU into the three-hole when the new rankings are revealed Sunday evening. The Broncos (10-0, 8-2) smothered Fresno State last Friday, 51-0, with a 29-point chalk line. It was Boise's third consecutive win against the NCAA football spread, and third shutout of the campaign.

The Broncos will be in Reno this Friday to face the No. 18 Nevada Wolf Pack (10-1, 5-6) who haven't beaten Boise State since Oct. 1998.

Tigers and Buckeyes survive scares
Behind the four unbeatens, both LSU and Ohio State needed fourth-quarter rallies to avoid missteps against Ole Miss and Iowa respectively.

No. 5 LSU (10-1, 5-5) scored 20 points in the final stanza to pull out a 43-36 win over the Rebels. The Tigers were 15-points favorites in the wild affair down in Baton Rouge that produced about 900 yards of offense and 32 fourth-quarter points between the two SEC rivals. Trailing 36-35 with about five minutes left, LSU burned about four minutes off the clock with a 50-yard drive that was punctuated by Stevan Ridley's third rushing touchdown with 44 seconds left.

LSU will be on the road this week to finish its regular season with the Tigers traveling to Arkansas in a big game for both schools' BCS hopes. The Razorbacks (9-2, 8-3), No. 13 in the most recent BCS rankings, are coming off a 38-31 win as three-point favorites at Mississippi State.

Ohio State (10-1, 8-2-1) needed a late drive as well to overcome the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, 20-17. The Buckeyes, ranked ninth in the BCS and favored by three on the road, beat Iowa for the 12th tie in the last 13 meetings to keep alive their Rose Bowl hopes.

The Buckeyes end their regular season this Saturday at home against rival Michigan who dropped a 48-28 decision at home to No. 7 Wisconsin over the weekend. The Badgers were 3½-point road chalk in Ann Arbor and will conclude their season at home in an ABC-televised matchup with Northwestern this Saturday. It was Wisconsin's fifth consecutive ATS win, leaving the Badgers 10-1 straight up and 6-5 versus the number.

The mess that is the Big 12
The Big 12 might be a bit of a disappointment in the BCS rankings, but the conference is providing a lot of excitement down the stretch in its final season under the current alignment. A key upset in College Station left the conference championship still up for grabs in both the North and South Divisions with the eventual winner now most likely headed to the Orange or Fiesta Bowls.

Oklahoma State (10-1, 9-2) will be the top-ranked school of the bunch when the BCS results come out after the Cowboys popped Kansas on the road, 48-14. OSU cashed for those holding minus 24½-point tickets and assured itself of at least a tie for the Big 12 South title. That won't mean much, however, if the Cowboys can't win the annual Bedlam Series this Saturday at home against No. 14 Oklahoma (9-2, 6-5).

Texas A&M created much of the current mess in the standings with a 9-6 win at home over Nebraska, previously No. 8 in the BCS. The Cornhuskers (9-2, 4-7) were two-point favorites at the closing bell and saw their hopes for clinching the Big 12 North title disappear via the Aggies' (8-3, 7-4) third field goal of the evening with about three minutes left. Nebraska turned the ball over twice to A&M's flawless day in that category, with the 'Huskers penalized a school record 16 times to the Aggies' two.

Nebraska faces Colorado for the last time as Big 12 rivals this Friday afternoon in Lincoln. A win gives the Cornhuskers the North Division slot in the conference championship. The South belongs to Oklahoma State if it beats OU. A Sooners win plus a Texas A&M victory in Austin against the Longhorns Thanksgiving night will plunge the South into a three-way tie with the title rep decided by BCS rankings.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:37 PM

Nevada, Boise St cap Friday NCAAF betting

The knock on third-ranked Boise State is that since its first game against Virginia Tech, the Broncos haven’t played anybody good. The Broncos have largely feasted on Western Athletic Conference garbage to post a 10-0 record.

But that changes Friday when the Broncos travel to Reno to face 19th-ranked Nevada at 7:15 p.m. PT (ESPN2) with a share of first-place in the WAC at stake not to mention national prestige.

Boise State is a 14-point NCAAF spread favorite against the 10-1 Wolf Pack.

Nevada’s only defeat occurred to WAC rival Hawaii, 27-21. The Wolf Pack lost as 6 ½-point road favorites on Oct. 16.

Nevada has the offensive statistics and stars to stay with Boise State – at least on paper. The Wolf Pack rank No. 3 in total offense and fourth in scoring offense averaging 44.1 points.

Wolf Pack running back Vai Taua is tied among the nation’s leaders in touchdowns with 19. He is the NCAA’s active career leader with 24 games of 100 or more yards rushing.

Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick needs only 16 rushing yards to become the first player in FBS history to have three seasons of at least 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. He is four rushing touchdowns shy of matching Eric Crouch’s FBS record of 59 career rushing touchdowns.

Kaepernick threw for 251 yards and two touchdowns while running for another touchdown in the Wolf Pack’s 52-6 home victory last week against New Mexico State. Nevada was 37 ½-point favorites. The combined 58 points fell ‘under’ the 61 ½-point total.

Boise State blitzed Fresno State, 51-0, last Friday as 28 ½-point favorites. The 51 points went ‘under’ the 65 ½-point total. Nevada just edged Fresno State, 35-34, as 7 ½-point road favorites two weeks ago with the combined 69 points slipping ‘over’ the 68 ½-point total.

Kellen Moore, a Heisman Trophy candidate, threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns against the Bulldogs in leading the Broncos to their 24th consecutive victory, the longest streak in the country. It was the first time Fresno State has been shut out since 1998. Titus Young caught eight of Moore’s passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns.

Boise State is No. 2 in scoring and fourth in total offense. Moore has passed for 2,921 yards, while completing 71.8 percent of his throws with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 25-to-eight. The Broncos are averaging 51.7 points in their last seven games.

Nevada rates just 67th in total defense and 103rd in pass defense. Boise State, on the other hand, is No. 2 in total defense and also second in scoring defense giving up only 11.5 points per contest.

“Boise’s defense is as good as there,” Nevada coach Chris Ault was quoted as saying. “And their offense is the best they’ve ever had. We have our work cut out for us.”

The Broncos are 14-3 ATS the last 17 times they’ve been a road favorite. They have defeated the Wolf Pack 10 straight times. But no team in the WAC has played tougher against Boise State than Nevada.

The Broncos beat the Wolf Pack last season, 44-34, but failed to cover as 11 ½-point home favorites. The combined 78 points went ‘over’ the 71-point total.

Boise State defeated Nevada, 41-34, two years ago in Reno and just nipped the Wolf Pack, 69-67, in quadruple overtime in 2007. The Wolf Pack rushed for 782 yards averaging 6.0 yards a carry during the past three meetings.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six of Boise State’s last seven WAC matchups. The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of Nevada’s past 10 games held during November.

The early weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 20s.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:54 PM

Friday Night Lights

Gamblers have a pair of Friday night games to wager on and both have national-title implications. Oregon will play host to Arizona as a double-digit home favorite, while Boise St. goes to Reno to take on Nevada in a game for the WAC title.

Let’s take an in-depth look at both contests.

**Arizona at Oregon**

--Most betting shops have Oregon (10-0 straight up, 5-3-1 against the spread) installed as a 19 ½-point favorite with a total of 61 ½. The Ducks are unbeaten in five home games at Autzen Stadium with a 3-0-1 spread record.

--Arizona (7-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) hasn’t tasted a victory since Oct. 30, losing back-to-back games at Stanford (42-17) and vs. Southern Cal (24-21). The Wildcats, who were four-point home favorites against the Trojans, couldn’t overcome a pair of costly fumbles and an ineffective running game. Junior quarterback Nick Foles certainly wasn’t at fault, completing 32-of-48 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

--Chip Kelly’s team had won its first nine games by double-digit margins until barely escaping with a 15-13 win at California two weeks ago. The Ducks never threatened to cover the number as 18 ½-point road favorites. Cal had a chance to go ahead midway through the fourth quarter but missed a 29-yard field goal.

--Oregon has been led by Heisman Trophy contender LaMichael James, a sophomore running back who has rushed for 1,442 yards and 18 touchdowns. Another sophomore, QB Darron Thomas, has been equally responsible for the Ducks’ success in 2010. Stepping in for Jeremiah Masoli, who was booted from the team after a number of off-the-field incidents, Thomas has connected on 61 percent of his passes for 2,207 yards with a 23/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jeff Maehl has been his favorite target, hauling in 59 receptions for 830 and 11 TDs.

--Arizona RB Nic Grisby sustained a sprained ankle early in the 42-17 loss at Stanford on Nov. 6. He did not play in the 24-21 home loss to USC two weeks ago but is “probable” against the Ducks. Grigsby has rushed for 423 yards and eight TDs this year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Also, starting OG Vaughn Dotsy is “out” with a back injury. Matt Scott, AU’s back-up QB who didn’t play against USC due to a wrist injury, will be available and could share some time with Foles under center.

--Oregon WR Lavasier Tuinei is “doubtful” with an arm injury. Tuinei has 33 catches for 321 yards and a pair of TD receptions this season.

--The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall this year for Oregon, 4-0 in its home games with a total. Meanwhile, Arizona has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, 2-2 in its road assignments.

--When these schools met last season in Tuscon, Oregon captured a 44-41 win in double overtime. However, the Wildcats took the cash as 5 ½-point road underdogs. James ran for 117 yards and former Ducks’ QB Jeremiah Masoli accounted for six touchdowns (three rushing and three passing). Maehl had 12 receptions for 114 yards and two TDs.

--In last year’s loss to Oregon, Foles threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. Juron Criner had five catches for 93 yards and three TDs.

--Arizona owns an 11-13 spread record in 24 games as a road underdog during Mike Stoops’ seven-year tenure.

--As a home favorite on Kelly’s watch, Oregon is 6-2-1 ATS.

--Foles has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio this season.

--ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Boise State at Nevada**

--Most sports books are listing Boise State (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 68. Bettors can take the home underdog to win outright for a plus-550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).

--Nevada (10-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) has been burning the pockets of its backers recently, posting a 2-5 spread record in its last seven games. However, that’s merely an indication of the expensive numbers the Wolf Pack have been forced to lay. We’re still talking about a team that’s won nine of its 10 games by 14 points or more.

--Chris Ault’s team suffered its lone loss of the year back on Oct. 16, when Hawaii captured a 27-21 win over the Wolf Pack as a 6 ½-point home underdog. Nevada had a close call two weeks ago, winning a 35-34 decision at Fresno St., but it was in complete cruise control in a 52-6 home win over New Mexico St. as a 37 ½-point favorite last week.

--The catalyst for Ault’s Pistol offense, one that has been mimicked by a slew of teams across the country the last couple of years, is QB Colin Kaepernick. The senior signal caller has enjoyed another banner campaign, rushing for 981 yards and 16 touchdowns while passing for 2,412 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Kaepernick has averaged 7.2 YPC this year.

--This game features two of the best QBs in WAC history. BSU junior Kellen Moore is a Heisman candidate thanks to 28 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions. Moore has connected on 71.8 percent of his pass attempts for 2,921 yards.

--Chris Petersen’s squad is coming off one of its most complete performances of the season in a 51-0 win over Fresno St. as a 30 ½-point home favorite. The Broncos’ defense stole the show, limiting a prolific offense to just 125 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs had scored 27 points or more in their nine previous games.

--When these schools met at Bronco Stadium last year, BSU was able to prevail by a 44-33 count in a hotly-contested ballgame. Nevada covered the number as a 13 ½-point road underdog. Moore threw five TD passes without being intercepted, while Kaepernick had three TD passes without a pick. His third scoring strike brought the Wolf Pack to within 34-33 early in the fourth quarter after they had trailed 20-0 and 27-3 in the first half.

--Boise St. has won 10 in a row against Nevada, compiling a 7-2 spread record during that span. The Broncos have scored at least 38 points in the last 10 head-to-head encounters.

--In Ault’s second tour of duty at Nevada, the Wolf Pack is 5-6 ATS as a home underdog. They beat Cal 52-31 back in Week 3 as three-point home ‘dogs.

--Kick-off is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 07:59 PM

Tech Trends - Week 13
November 23, 2010

TEXAS A&M at TEXAS (Thursday, November 25)...A&M very hot with wins and covers in its last 5 TY. Horns 1-4 vs. line last 5 and no covers last 4 Big XII games. Horns 1-5 vs. line last 6 as Big XII host. Ags have covered 4 of last 5 in series. Tech edge-A&M, based on team and series trends.

BUFFALO at AKRON (Friday, November 26)...Zips still looking for first SU win but could be favored? Buff alo no covers last 6 or 9 of last 10 TY. Zips just 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host. Tech edge-slight to Akron, based on Buffalo spread woes.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO (Friday, November 26)...Ugh! CMU has covered 5 of last 6 meetings but that was mostly when Chips were a MAC power, which they aren't TY. CMU 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY although Chips have covered their last 2. Chips are 3-2 as road dog TY, however. Rockets covering every other game their last 6, trend indicates L this week. Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on serie s trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN (Friday, November 26)...BGSU no covers last 3 at Doyt-Perry Stadium TY and just 9-18 vs. line as host since 2005. Tech edge-WMU, based on BGSU home woes.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN (Friday, November 26)...NIU continues tremendous roll, now 8-1 vs. mark last 9 on board T Y. Huskies have won and covered last 2 vs., EMU by combined 87-6 score and have held Eagles to single digits in 4 of last 5 meetings. Eagles 1-10 vs. number last 11 vs. MAC at Ypsilanti. Tech edge-NIU, based on team and series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at PITT (Friday, November 26)...Brawl! Last three Brawls all "under." Also, the last three have all been decided by 4 or fewer. If Stew chalk note that he has covered 5 of last 7 in role TY. Stache 7-2 vs. line last 9 at He nz Field vs. Big East foes. Tech edge-slight to Pitt, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS (Friday, November 26)...UL needs win for bowl Rutgers needs two more wins. Schiano in midst of awful 2-8 spread run TY, and has no covers last 6 as host (includes Meadowlands vs. Army). Charlie Strong 3-1 vs. line away LY. Tech edge-UL, based on Rutgers negat ives.

OHIO at KENT STATE ( Friday, November 26)...Solich has covered last 2 and 7 of last 8 on board. Road team has covered last 5 and 9 of last 10 meetings. Bobcats have covered last 5 and 6 of last 7 at Dix Stadium. Flashes 2-7 vs. line last 9 TY. Tech edge-Solich, based on team and series trends.

SMU at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 4-1 vs. line at home TY but has endured some humbling defeats lately. June Jones 9-2 vs. line last 11 as dog. Tech edge-SMU, if dog, based on June Jones trends.

AUBURN at ALABAMA (Friday, November 26)...Iron Bowl! Auburn has covered 4 of last 5 vs. Bama. Tide 6-1 vs. line last 7 at Tuscaloosa. Tech edge-slight to Auburn, based on series trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA STATE (Friday, November 26)...Bowl consequences, both must win out, and in ASU's case then it must hope for a waiver from NCAA. Last four "under" in series. UCLA has covered 6 of last 7 vs. Devils, but Neuheisel 1-4 vs. line as visitor TY and just 6-10 since taking over at UCLA in 2008. ASU has am azingly covered 7 of its last 8 TY and is 10-2 vs. spread last 12 at Tempe. Tech edge-ASU, based on team trends .

COLORADO at NEBRASKA (Friday, November 26)...Bowl berth on line for CU, Big XII North crown on line for Huskers. Buffs have covered last 3 in series, getting a Hail Mary at final gun to cover LY. CU no covers 4 as visitor TY. Bo Pelini no covers last 3 TY, however. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on recent CU visitor woes.

SOUTHERN MISS at TULSA (Friday, November 26)...Tulsa cover streak ended vs, UTEP but Golden Hurricane has still covered 6 of last 7 TY. Meanwhile, USM has won and covered last three impressively. USM has covered last 5 at C-USA visitor. Tech edge-slight to USM, based on road trends.

ARIZONA at OREGON (Friday , November 26)...Arizona has covered 4 of last 5 in series, although Cats just 1-6 vs. line last 7 as Pac-10 visitor. Ducks have won and covered all five at home TY, n ow 11-2 vs. spread last 13 at Autzen Stadium. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at NEVADA (Friday, November 2 6)...After getting destroyed on an annual basis by Boise, Wolf Pack has played Broncos pretty tough the past three seasons, losing by only 2, 7, and 11 points. Chris Ault 26-13 vs. line at home since returning to Nevada side lines in 2004, although he's 0-3 vs. spread at Reno vs. Boise that span. Broncos have covered all five on road TY and now seven straight away since late 2009. Tech edge-slight to Boise, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Tressel has owned this bitter rivalry, winning last 6 SU vs. Michigan , covering 5 of those, and is 8-1 SU and 7-2 vs. line against Wolverines. Tressel 7-0 vs. line at Big Horseshoe TY . Michigan no covers last 7 TY, and no covers last 12 Big Ten games. Tech edge-OSU, based on team and series trends.

INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket and neither of these two are going to a bowl. IU no covers last 4 away from home TY. If Danny Hope chalk, however, note that he's covered just 2 of last 8 in role at Purdue. Boilermakers have won a d covered big in the last two Bucket battles. Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on IU negatives.

TULANE at MARSHALL...Wave just 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY, but is 2-1-1 vs. spread on road. Although Herd just 2 covers last 9 TY. Herd 1-3 as chalk in 2 010. Tech edge-slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 vs. FBS foes at home. Randy Shannon only 13-22 as chalk since taking over in 2007. Skip Holtz only 2-3 as dog TY but 24-12 in role since 2005 at ECU & USF. Tech edge-USF, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at OLE MISS...Egg Bowl! MSU won big LY vs. Rebs after losing big in 2008. MSU no covers last five at Oxford (0-4-1). Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE...FSU hasn't beaten Florida since Ron Zook coached Gators in 2003, as UF is 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line since in series. Urban Meyer 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line against FSU. Jimbo no covers last 3 at Doak Campbell TY and surprisingly the Noles are just 1-10 vs. line last 11 hosting FBS foes. Tech edge- Florida, based on series trends.

KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...UK hasn't beaten Vols since 2084, a 17-12 win by Jerry Claiborne's Wildcats. UT has won 3 straight and covered 4 in a row TY as it needs just one more win for bowl eligibility. Cats 1-3 vs. line away TY but were 5-1 i n role LY. UT has also covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-slight to UT, based on series trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON...Palmetto State classic. Home team has covered last 3 in series. Dabo is 2-2 as a dog TY but Clemson is 15-5 its last 20 as dog since midway in 2004. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on recent home series trends.

UCF at MEMPHIS...Look out for Memphis, with covers in its last two. Tigers had dropped previous 5 vs. number, however. UCF has won and covered last 3 in series and is 8-1 vs. line last 9 TY. George O'Leary has also covered 12 straight as a visitor. Tech edge-UCF, based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at UCONN...Huskies very much in Big East title frame (especially if WVU beats Pitt in the Brawl), while Bearcats need two more wins for a bowl. Home team had covered 4 straight in series prior to LY when UConn played Bearcats close at Nippert. Edsall 18-6 vs. line last 24 on board since late 2008, and he's 5 -0 vs. spread at Rentsch TY. Tech edge-UConn, based on team and series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at SYRACUSE...Old Big East game, these two haven't met since 2004, which is a shame because i t used to be a good rivalry. Spaziani has covered last 3 on road TY after dropping 8 of previous 9 vs. number away . Cuse 0-3 vs. line at home vs. FBS foes TY. Tech edge -BC, based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN...Teams didn't play in 2007-08, but home team has covered last 5 in series. Cats just 1-5 vs. line away from Evanston TY and no covers three as Big Ten visitor. Bret "Bully-ma" has won and covered five straight TY in brutal fashion. Tech edge-Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.

WAKE FOREST at VANDERBILT...No wins or covers for either of these teams since October 9 (Vandy 0-6 since, Wake 0-5 since). Wake 0-5 SU and vs. line away TY and outscored 251-62 in those games, but do we trust Vandy? Dores 2-12 last 14 against number as host, and Vandy just 7-14 as home chalk since 2000. Tech edge-slight to Wake, based on team trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Road team has covered last 3 in series, and Iowa won 55-0 the last time it was series visitor in 2008. Hawkeyes only 1-3 vs. line away TY but had covered 8 straight away from home previously. Note Jeff Horton has covered his last two for Gophers. Tech edge-Iowa, based on team and recent series trends.

NC STATE at MARYLAND...NCS now 9-2 vs. line TY for O'Brien, 28-15 his last 43 on board since early 2008. Ralph having a big year but only 3-3 as dog in 2010. Tech edge-NCS, based on recent trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at DUKE...eels have only covered one of last five (1-3-1 vs. line) against close-by rival, although that was last year. Butch 4-1 vs. line away TY. Duke j ust 5-9 as home dog since 2007 (2-2 TY). Tech edge-sl ight to UNC, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH...UGH! Beamer now on 8-1 spread run last 9 TY. Beamer has also covered 5 of last 6 vs. Hoos. Tech edge-VT, based on team and seri es trends.

KANSAS vs. MISSOURI (at Kansas City)...KU has covered this game the last two years in KC. Jayhawks just had their three-game cover streak broken by Ok State last week, KU had been on 3-13 spread run prior to recent uptick. Tech edge-slight to Mizzou, based on extended KU spread negatives. VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer now on 8-1 spread run last 9 TY. Beamer has also covered 5 of last 6 vs. Hoos. Tech edge-VT, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at NEW MEXICO STATE...Hawaii 10-5 vs. spread last 15 on mainland. DeWayne Walker no covers last 3 TY and 2-9 vs. spread at Las Cruces since 2009. Tech edge-Ha waii, based on team trends.

UAB at RICE...UAB no covers last 3 TY. Note that h me team has covered last 3 in series although teams didn't meet 2007-08. Owls back to home dog prowess, covering last 3 in role TY, now 23-10 in role since 2000. Owls 2 1-11 vs. line as host since 2005. Tech edge-Rice, base d on team and series trends.

GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA...Georgia needs this one for a bowl berth and is 4-1 against spread at Athens TY, but note that road team is 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 meetings. Paul Johnson 12-7 vs. line away since arriving at GT in 2008, and 7-3 as dog (2-1 TY). Tech edge-GT, based on series and team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE...Shades has delivered vicious beatings the past two years and has covered 5 of las t 6 at Happy Valley vs. MSU. Spartans no covers last 3 TY and this is only their ourth game as visitor. Tech edge-Shades, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Bedlam, now for Big XII South honors. Sooners have dominated series lately, winning and covering last 5. But OU now 1-3 vs. line as visitor TY after Baylor win, andt Bob Stoops only 2-6 vs. spread as visitor since LY. OSU has covered last 4, 8 of last 9, and 9 of 11 overall this season. Tech edge -OSU, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at CAL...Winner alive for bowl berth, loser out of luck. Tedford finally lost an even-numbered year home spread decision last week vs. Tree, but Tedford has lost 3 of last 4 spread decisions vs. UW. Huskies broke 5-game spread losing streak in game vs. UCLA. Tech edge-slight to UW, based on series trends.

BYU at UTAH...Utes have mostly held the edge in recent years, 5-1 vs. line last 6 against BYU, and have covered the last 3 at Salt Lake City vs. Cougs. Utes 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 at Salt Lake City. Bowl-eligible BYU has won last 4 SU and covered 4 of last 5 TY. < B>Tech edge-Utah, based on team and series trends. < /P>

OREGON STATE at STANFORD...Beavers have covered 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 7 in series. Mike Riley now 14-3 vs. line last 17 away from home (4- 1 TY). Riley 5-0 as dog TY and 19-4 last 23 in role. Harbaugh only 2-5 vs. number last 7 on Farm. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

LSU vs. ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...Arkansas has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. LSU 2-1 as dog TY but The Hat just 5-5 in role since 2007. Hogs have covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 TY. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on series trends.

TCU at NEW MEXICO...Note that Frogs are 6-2 their last 8 laying 30 or more. Locksley had covered 4 of last 5 in 2010 prior to BYU last week, but has covered his last two at home TY. Frogs had covered 4 straight vs. Lobos prior to LY. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON at TEXAS TECH...UH now needs this one for bowl eligibility. Tuberville 1-3 at home vs. FBS TY, TT is 2-4 as chalk vs. FBS TY, and Tuberville 2-9 his last 11 as chalk vs. FBS foes at Auburn & TT. Cougs only 1-3 as dog for Sumlin TY and 5-1 mark previous 6 in role. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at SOUTHERN CAL...The last Irish coach to beat SC was Bob Davie back in 2001 by a 27-16 score, Pete Carroll proceeded to win the next 8, including four straight big wins and covers at Coliseum. But ND covered LY at South Bend. ND 2-1 as dog TY and 5-1 last 6 in role, Brian Kelly 10-3 in role since 2007 at Cincy & ND. Lane Kiffin only 4-7 vs. line TY and Trojans mere 8-16 vs. spread since LY. Also just 2-8 last 10 vs. points at Coliseum. Tech edge-ND, based on recent trends. < /B>

LA TECH at SAN JOSE STATE...LT has won and covered last two meetings handily after SJSU had covered previous 4. Spartans now on 4-22 spread slide since midway in 2008 campaign. Sonny Dykes 4-1 vs. line last 5 on board TY. Tech edge-La Tech, based on team trends.

UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Aztecs have covered last 4 and 7 of last 8 in series. UNLV 0-5 vs. line away TY, 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-SDSU, based on team trends.

IDAHO at FRESNO STATE...Vandals can get bowl eligible with two more wins. Pat Hill has covered 4 of last 5 meetings, but Bulldogs just 3-13 their last 16 as Dog House chalk. Tech edge-Idaho, based on Fresno home chalk woes.

UL-LAFAYETTE at UL-MONROE...Comin g to a bowl near you might be Monroe with one win here. U LM 4-0 SU at home TY (3-0 vs. line against Belt foes) and is 7-2 its last 9 vs. line as Belt host. An amazing stat this season is five straight covers on road by ULL. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on recent road mark.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MIDDLE TENN ESSEE...MTSU amazingly could still get bowl eligible with two more wins. Blue Raiders, however, no covers last 3 and just 2-8 vs. number TY. FAU just as bad vs. line TY, now 1-7 last 8 against number. Tech edge-slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at NORTH TEXAS...KSU 7-2 vs. line last 9 away from home and Snyder buried UNT a couple of times in past decade (2000 & 2005). UNT had covered three straight for Mike Canales prior to ULM loss. Mean Green s till only 1-4 vs. line at home TY and 6-16 last 22 as hos t. Tech edge-KSU, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. ..Break up FIU, now on course for New Orleans Bowl. Golden Panthers, however, just 1-5 vs. line last 6 as Sun Belt host (0-2 TY). ASU has covered 4 of 6 on road TY. Tech edge-slight to ASU, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at TROY...WKU has now covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY, while Troy on debilitating 5-game spread losing streak, 1-7 last 8 vs. number, 2-8 overall vs. sprea d in 2010. Note that Tops have also covered last two years in series. Troy no covers in 4 at Movie Gallery Stadium TY. Tech edge-WKU, based on recent trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-23-2010, 08:01 PM

Fourth Quarter Covers
November 23, 2010

Here is a look back at the spread result changing plays and sequences from last weekend's college games from the third weekend of November and Week 11 NFL results. There were everal close and controversial finishes last week, particularly in the NFL that left backers on both sides watching intently through the closing seconds.

NCAA:

Penn State led Indiana just 31-24 entering the fourth quarter after a blocked punt return broke the tie late in the third quarter. Penn State added a field goal early in the fourth and then punched in a cover sealing touchdown with just over three minutes to go after Indiana was stopped in Penn State territory on their possession.

Tennessee led Vanderbilt just 14-3 entering the fourth quarter to narrowly get by the closing spreads. An early field goal provided a cushion in the final frame but Vanderbilt put together a 74 yard drive to cut the gap to just seven points with just over two minutes to go. Tennessee seemingly could have ran out the clock but a run broke for 28 yards and the Volunteers got by the spread with just over a minute to go.

Most closing lines landed right on ten, which was the margin as Georgia Tech took the lead late in the third quarter against Duke. Duke struck immediately in the final quarter to get within three points but halfway through the quarter Georgia Tech connected for a 79-yard pass play. Duke missed a field goal in the final minutes which would have taken the spread back.

Iowa and Ohio State were tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter but Iowa took a 17-10 lead as a slight underdog early in the fourth quarter. A 48-yard field goal from the Buckeyes followed which would prove to be a big three points as Ohio State took the lead with a key scoring drive late in the game, finding the end zone with just under two minutes to go to clinch the win and give Buckeye backers at least a push.

Missouri led Iowa State just 7-0 entering the fourth quarter before quickly pushing the lead to 14-0 shortly into the final frame. Iowa State moved the ball well in the fourth quarter but could never get points on the board, ending bowl hopes and giving the Tigers a narrow cover as a double-digit favorite in the shutout.

It took until the fourth quarter for Oklahoma State to eclipse a lofty spread after allowing two early Kansas touchdowns. Oklahoma State scored twice in the fourth quarter to put the game away despite the cover looking in doubt most of the way.

Arkansas led Mississippi State by just three entering the fourth quarter but the lead was pushed to ten early in the final frame. Mississippi State fought back however getting back within three with four minutes to go and then kicking the tying field goal as time expired. In the first overtime the Bulldogs went right down the field but a fumble narrowly flew out of the end zone for a touchback. Arkansas infuriated backers by playing conservatively for the field goal but the try missed. In the second OT Arkansas found the end zone to go up seven and cover the spread and Mississippi State could not convert.

Virginia Tech and Miami were tied at 17-17 entering the fourth quarter but the Hokies broke an 84 yard run early in the final frame. Miami’s final three drives ended in interceptions and Virginia Tech added another score to push the final to a 14 point margin.

Those laying big points with Nevada had to sweat a bit as the Wolf Pack led by just 32 entering the final quarter. A 57 yard touchdown run got past the spread and for good measure a 90 yard interception return with five minutes to go padded the final margin.

Florida State led by four entering the fourth quarter against Maryland as a four point favorite. The Seminoles added a field goal to go up seven but Maryland appeared poised to tie the game. Florida State turned the tables however with a 96 yard interception in the final minute that sealed the game.

BYU led by just 20 laying over 30 against New Mexico last week. New Mexico had two long drives in the fourth quarter that both ended in interceptions and BYU pulled away with two late scores.

South Florida and Pittsburgh were tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter but Pittsburgh scored very early in the final quarter to grab a seven point lead. Both teams had opportunities to add points in the final quarter but the 17-10 margin held up.

Texas led Florida Atlantic just 30-17 entering the fourth quarter but a 57 yard interception return opened the final quarter and Texas poured on two more scores to make for a somewhat misleading final.

The final score for Navy with less than three minutes to go gave the Midshipmen a narrow cover against Arkansas State. Navy led by 18 early but Arkansas State cut the lead to just eight points entering the fourth quarter before Navy pulled away.

Florida International led Louisiana just 24-17 entering the fourth quarter but in the final six minutes the Panthers added two touchdown runs to create a somewhat misleading final in a game where Louisiana had more yardage.

San Diego State led Utah 34-24 as slight underdogs entering the fourth quarter but Utah scored two touchdowns in less than three minutes early in the final quarter to get just past the spread. The final two drives for the Aztecs both ended with interceptions in Utah territory.

NFL:

The Jets led Houston 23-7 after a field goal early in the fourth quarter but the Texans would put together a great rally, scoring 20 straight points including a touchdown with just over two minutes to go to take a one point lead. Lost in the praise for Mark Sanchez this week is the interception he immediately threw when the Jets were down one and only needed a field goal to win the game. Houston got the ball on the ten yard line but had to settle for a field goal to go up by four. The lead wouldn’t hold as the Jets put together a great closing drive in the final minute for the win but the Texans did hold on to the cover.

Baltimore was heavily bet last week given the QB situation for the Panthers but Ravens backers got away with a fairly fortunate win. With the line closing as high as -14 the Ravens took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter but the Panthers connected on a 88-yard pass play to cut the lead to just one score. Baltimore’s offense did nothing on its first possession of the fourth quarter but on its second possession a long field goal built the lead to ten points with less than six minutes to go. In a span of just eleven seconds on the game clock two Carolina passes were intercepted for touchdowns, getting the Ravens past the steep number.

Dallas led Detroit just 21-19 entering the fourth quarter in a game where the Lions held the Cowboys to just 265 yards. Most of that yardage came in the fourth quarter as Dallas had two scoring drives to put the game out of each and Lions failed to get points despite moving into Cowboys territory twice.

While Buffalo technically already had got back within the spread against Cincinnati prior the fourth quarter this game featured a wild comeback. Cincinnati took control in the second quarter with three touchdowns in the span of three minutes of game clock, eventually leading 31-14 at the half. The Bills struck twice in the third including a fumble return touchdown and then poured on points in he fourth to create a lopsided final and invoke memories of Frank Reich.

In a closely lined game the Browns took a 17-10 lead against Jacksonville late in the third quarter. Turnovers haunted the Jaguars the entire game but eventually with just over three minutes to go Jacksonville tied the game. The Browns took the lead back moments late with a field goal but scored too quickly as Jacksonville had time to go all the way down the field with the help of a big play and scored to win by four.

At first glance it looks like the Falcons crushed the Rams but St. Louis lead 17-16 until late in the third quarter. Atlanta was able to get ahead with as they benefited from field position edges throughout the second half, eventually kicking a field goal halfway through the fourth quarter to push the lead to nine. St. Louis immediately went down the field and got the ball to the two yard line but a busted shovel pass play resulted in an interception and while the Falcons were running out the clock Michael Turner broke a long run to pass the final.

The Patriots led the Colts 28-14 entering the fourth quarter and added a field goal in the fourth quarter to go up by 17. The intensity picked up for the Colts on both sides of the ball however and Indianapolis got back-to-back touchdown drives to get within the spread and just down a field goal. With another stop the Colts appeared in position to win or tie but an interception ended the game.

While Philadelphia led New York 16-10 entering the fourth quarter the Giants took the lead early in the fourth as underdogs. On a critical fourth and short play with just over four minutes to go in the game the Eagles broke a 50-yard run to go up by seven with the two-point conversion and turnovers ended any late hopes for the Giants.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2010, 07:02 PM

Barkley may miss game vs. Notre Dame

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-5)
at USC TROJANS (7-4)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: OFF

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that Mitch Mustain will be USC’s starting quarterback when the Trojans host Notre Dame on Saturday night. Matt Barkley sprained his left ankle in last week’s 36-7 loss at Oregon State and began the week on crutches and in a walking boot. Barkley and head coach Lane Kiffin are still holding out hope that Barkley could be ready to play on Saturday night.

******* take:
Barkley has had an excellent season, throwing for 2,593 yards with 25 TD and 10 INT. He threw for 380 yards in last year’s meeting, a 34-27 USC win. Mustain hasn’t started a game since 2006 when he was a freshman with Arkansas. He hasn’t played very much in his USC career, but he has been pretty effective in mop-up duty, going 31-for-50 for 322 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. But the performance of the starting quarterback won’t mean much if the Trojans can’t stop anybody on offense. USC ranks 78th in the nation in scoring defense (28.5 PPG), including a 35.8 PPG average over the past four games.

Notre Dame has had a painful season with five losses, but the Irish have looked great in their past two games, beating Utah 28-3 and Army 27-3. Freshman Tommy Rees is growing in confidence, going 26-for-40 for 343 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT during the two-game win streak.

The Trojans have won the past eight meetings between these schools by an average margin of 24.5 PPG. However, this FoxSheets trend backs Notre Dame on Friday:

Play On - Any team (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. (81-41 since 1992.) (66.4%, +35.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2010, 07:03 PM

Martinez injury status uncertain for Friday

COLORADO BUFFALOES (5-6)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (9-2)

Kickoff: Friday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -17.5, Total: 50

Nebraska looks to wrap up the Big 12 North as it hosts a surprisingly hot Colorado team. The Buffs have won two straight and posted 41.0 PPG in its past three games. Nebraska has lost its last three games ATS, and may have lost its quarterback Taylor Martinez. The freshman had his toe stepped on in last week’s 9-6 loss at Texas A&M, but the more concerning issue is that Martinez re-aggravated his sprained ankle against the Aggies. His status for Friday’s game is uncertain.

******* take:
Martinez has had an up-and-down season, with last week’s performance prompting a verbal berating by head coach Bo Pelini. Martinez rushed 11 times for just 17 yards last week and also threw an interception. After rushing for 147 YPG and 12 TD in his first five games, Martinez has only 47 rushing YPG with zero touchdowns in his past five games. He tossed five TD passes at Oklahoma State on Oct. 23, but has completed just 31-of-52 passes (59.6%) for 389 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in three games since. If Martinez can’t play, sophomore Cody Green will replace him. Senior RB Roy Helu Jr., who had a respectable 52 yards on nine carries last week, will try to take the pressure off the quarterback. Helu Jr. has 269 total yards in two career games against Colorado. Despite Nebraska’s offensive problems, the Blackshirts defense is back on track, allowing a mere 12 points and 397 total yards in its past two games combined.

Colorado’s offense has certainly looked strong in the past three games, but the Buffs did nothing offensively in their two games versus their two Big 12 opponents who currently have winning records in conference -- Missouri and Oklahoma. In these two games, Colorado was outscored 69 to 10. However, senior QB Cody Hawkins has led his team to 96 points in two career starts against the Huskers, throwing for 490 yards, 3 TD and 3 INT against Nebraska.

Nebraska is 4-1 in the past five meetings with Colorado, averaging 37.2 PPG during this span. This FoxSheets trend also backs Nebraska on Friday:

NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. The average score was NEBRASKA 44.0, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 2*).

And this FoxSheets stat likes the Over.

COLORADO is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was COLORADO 32.4, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2010, 10:04 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/23/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/20/10 27-20-2 57.45% +2500 Detail
11/19/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/18/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/17/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
11/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/13/10 25-23-0 52.08% -150 Detail
11/12/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/11/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/10/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/06/10 18-28-0 39.13% -6400 Detail
11/05/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/04/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/02/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals 88-91-2 49.16% -6050

Thursday, November 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas A&M - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M -3.5 500
Texas - Over 48 500

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2010, 12:23 PM

Iron Bowl preview
November 25, 2010

The Iron Bowl is always a bitter battle both on the field and in the stands, but this year’s showdown has both schools and their respective fan bases on edge even more than usual. And that’s saying something.

To Auburn fans, this is their year. In the past, one reason or another has prevented the Tigers from winning the national championship. When Terry Bowden led AU to an unbeaten record in his first season back in 1993, the school was on probation dating back to Pat Dye’s tenure.

When Tommy Tuberville led the Tigers to an unbeaten record in 2004, Oklahoma and Southern Cal were ranked higher and therefore received the bids to the BCS Championship Game.

Now in 2010, the Auburn faithful have had to endure the endless media coverage of the Cam Newton pay-for-play allegations. For a two-week stretch, it almost seemed inevitable that the Heisman Trophy front-runner would be ruled ineligible.

But the controversy has seemingly died down, at least in terms of whether or not Newton will be able to play out the rest of the season. For better or worse, AU has made its decision. It will not take Newton off the field.

Likewise, the SEC and the NCAA aren’t going to act until some new information comes to light or the investigation is completed.

As of Thursday morning, most sports books were listing Alabama (9-2 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point favorite with the total in the 58-59 range. Gamblers can take the unbeaten Tigers to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

Nick Saban’s team saw its hopes of repeating as national champs dashed in his old stomping grounds. When the Tide went to Baton Rouge on Nov. 6, LSU captured a 24-21 victory as a 6 ½-point home underdog.

Couple that loss with a 35-21 defeat at South Carolina and ‘Bama is simply trying to garner a second-place finish in the SEC West. But let’s be serious, all that matters to ‘The Bammers’ (as they are called by Auburn fans (‘Aubbies’) on the Paul Finebaum Show) is denying Auburn a shot at the national title.

And nothing would be more sweet for Auburn than to win it all in the year that ‘Bama thought it would be able to repeat.

Gene Chizik’s team is coming off a 49-31 home win over Georgia as an eight-point favorite. The Tigers fell behind by a 21-7 score late in the first quarter and the game was tied at 28-28 at intermission.

UGA redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray enjoyed a spectacular performance, matching Cam Newton drive for drive for three quarters. As we’ve said all year, teams can score on Auburn and its shaky secondary.

But at the end of four quarters, Newton and the Tigers’ offense are going to outscore you. And that’s the recipe AU has used to get to Tuscaloosa with an unblemished resume.

Auburn (11-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) hasn’t been an underdog all season long. The Tigers went 1-2 ATS as road underdogs in Chizik’s first season on The Plains.

Following an 8-5 campaign in 2009, Auburn figured to be a solid team this year with 15 returning starters. But the signing of Newton, the juco transfer who began his career behind Tim Tebow at Florida, gave the Tigers hope of a big season. And that’s exactly what the much-maligned signal caller has delivered.

Cut off from the media for the last three weeks, Newton’s stats have told his story and his play on the field has done his talking. With an enormous spotlight on him, Newton probably played his best game of the year in the win over Georgia.

He completed 12-of-15 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. However, two passes were dropped and he intentionally threw another away. The interception came on a pass that hit his tight end right on the numbers. In other words, Newton didn’t throw an errant pass in 15 attempts.

He also carried the load on the ground, rushing 30 times for 151 yards and two more scores. Onterio McCalebb also made big plays galore, rushing for 71 yards and three TDs on just 12 carries. Remember, it was McCalebb that busted off a 70-yard TD run midway through the final stanza to propel AU to a 24-17 home win over LSU back on Oct. 23.

For the season, Newton has connected on 68.2 percent of his throws for 2,038 yards with a 21/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His most impressive numbers come in the running game, however. Newton leads the SEC in rushing with 1,297 yards and 17 TDs. He averages 6.3 yards per carry.

We touched on how Auburn’s defense having issues, but there is one exception in DT Nick Fairley. Although he’s taken some deserved criticism for several dirty plays on UGA’s Murray a few weeks ago, there’s no denying that he’s been the SEC’s premier playmaker on the defensive side of the ball this year.

Alabama had better account for him and have two men on him without exception. If not, Mr. Fairley will be getting know Alabama QB Greg McElroy early and often.

We mentioned Alabama’s losses to South Carolina and LSU on the road, but we should note that the Crimson Tide is unbeaten in six home games at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Not only that, but ‘Bama has compiled a lucrative 5-1 spread record with the lone ‘non-cover’ coming in a 23-10 win over Ole Miss as a 20-point ‘chalk.’

Before discussing Alabama at greater length, let’s bring veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe into the conversation. On Wednesday, I asked Iskoe for his thoughts on the game.

“I’m going to play Auburn,” Iskoe said. “Back three or four weeks ago, I felt like this was a suspect unbeaten team, but they no longer have the look of a suspect team at all. And the entire Cam Newton Saga seems to have motivated them and I also think that being an underdog this week adds even more incentive. As the underdog, the pressure is off Auburn and I think it’ll play loose and play extremely well on Friday.”

While AU had an open date following its win over Georgia, Alabama is coming off a 63-7 home win over Ga. State as a 45-point favorite last Thursday. McElroy threw a pair of TD passes, while Mark Ingram rushed for 86 yards and one TD on just 12 carries.

Ingram hasn’t been able to duplicate his Heisman numbers of 2009, but he’s still rushed for 780 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. Ingram gets help carrying the load from Trent Richardson, who rested his sore injured leg against Ga. St. Nevertheless, Richardson (634 rushing yards, nine TDs combined) will play in the Iron Bowl.

When these bitter rivals met last year on The Plains, Auburn nearly played the spoiler role to perfection. However, McElroy came of age in a long, game-winning drive at crunch time. His four-yard TD pass to Roy Upchurch with 1:24 remaining lifted ‘Bama to a 26-21 win, but Auburn took the cash as a 10-point home underdog.

The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Auburn, 4-3 in its home games. As for Alabama, it has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3-1 overall, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in its five road assignments.

CBS will provide television coverage Friday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Auburn had won six in a row over ‘Bama in the head-to-head series until the Tide prevailed the last two seasons, including a 36-0 clubbing in Tuscaloosa two year ago that sent Tommy Tuberville to his pink slip.

--McElroy has a 17/5 TD-INT ratio this year.

--McElroy’s favorite target is junior WR Julio Jones, who has a career-high 65 receptions for 885 yards and seven touchdowns. Jones’ size and athleticism will be a huge matchup problem for Auburn’s mediocre secondary.

--During the Paul Howard Show in Las Vegas on Wednesay afternoon, Paul asked me what I thought would happen if Alabama won a very close game over Auburn and then the Tigers bounced back and blew out South Carolina next week at the Ga. Dome. In that scenario, did I think Auburn could get to the BCS Championship Game ahead of Boise St. or TCU? My reply was this: “No, but only because South Carolina is a three-loss team. In a different year if the SEC East was represented by a one-loss squad whether it be Florida, South Carolina or whoever, then it would be different. Then a blowout win over a one-loss Florida team might bolster Auburn’s resume enough to lift it back into that conversation. But not this season.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2010, 12:25 PM

Battle for the Big Ten
November 23, 2010

It’s been a long time since the Big Ten has had a three-way race for the conference championship. And it’s been even longer that they’ve had said race go down to the final Saturday. The Buckeyes, Badgers and Spartans are all vying for the league’s automatic BCS berth and a potential at-large bid to big bowls.

Ohio State might be the one with the hardest road to going 11-1 on the regular season by hosting the hated Wolverines on Saturday at 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC. The Buckeyes were opened up as 17 ½-point home favorites for this contest, but has been moved down to 17 at the time of publishing.

The Bucks come into this game as a statistical powerhouse, ranking 18th in total offense (446.2 YPG), 3rd in total defense (241.5 YPG), 9th in scoring offense (39.6 PPG) and 5th in scoring defense (13.9 PPG). As great as those numbers are for Jim Tressel’s club, they don’t indicate how bad this team has been in the first half.

Over the last two week, Ohio State has been outscored 21-6 in the first half by the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes. Yet the Buckeyes not only won both games, but they covered the spread in both games. If there was ever a team that deserved to be a first half fade, it’s the Scarlet and Gray.

The biggest asset for the Buckeyes right now has been its defense, which has allowed just 13 points over their last four contests. Wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher and Running Back Dan Herron have been highly effective by accounting 1,711 total yards and 23 touchdowns. Which is good as Terrelle Pryor is still trying to figure out how to be a quarterback. He’s got 23 touchdown throws and four more on the ground, but is still making passes behind receivers or at their feet and getting picked off at the worst possible times. Yet Pryor still finds ways to win games for Bucks.

Even though Pryor has been with has passing better recently, he’ll get a lot of leeway this Saturday against Michigan and its matador defense at the Horseshoe.

The Wolverines are going bowling for the first time with Rich Rodriguez running the show, but it's in spite of their stoppers. Michigan’s defense is 112th in the country with 445.2 yards per game being allowed this season. The secondary has been the worst part the defense, surrendering 263.9 YPG to rank 111th. This is a unit that has allowed 142 points in its last three games.

Michigan’s offense has been sputtering as of late with being shut out in the opening half against the Badgers and put up just 14 points in the first 30 minutes against the Boilermakers. Denard Robinson has been the hype machine for the Wolverines this season with his 2,229 yards through the air, 1,538 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns. Those numbers tend to help the faithful forget about his bad throws, fumbles and injury issues this season.

Ohio State has had ownership of this rivalry ever since Jim Tressel came to Columbus in 2001. The Bucks have gone 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread in that time. The most recent cover for the Wolverines was the 42-39 loss at Ohio Stadium as 6 ½-point pups in the No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in 2006. And that was a backdoor cover.

Michigan hasn’t been a wise road pup to back as of late, going 2-6 SU and ATS over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are damn near automatic as home faves against Big Ten foes since 2005, evidenced by a 21-1 SU and 16-6 ATS record.

While the Buckeyes will be playing for their sixth straight Big Ten crown, Michigan State will be aiming for at least a share of its first title since 1990. They’ll be taking on the Nittany Lions at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.

The Spartans seeming have a horseshoe tucked into the uniforms of all of their players with the way they’ve won some of their games over the course of the season. They won on a fake field goal against the Fighting Irish, got the Wildcats to choke for them just like the Boilermakers did last week. But they do hold the only win anyone has on the Badgers. Back in the day, that would have been an important tiebreaker in the Big Ten. Now that win is only good is to pad the standings. We’ll get to that stuff a little later though.

Michigan State’s offense has been sluggish, but is still ran by QB Kirk Cousins. The junior signal caller appeared to get back on track last week against Purdue by connecting on 28-of-37 pass attempts for 276 yards and three scores with one pick that was ran back for a touchdown. That’s a big change from Cousins’ two start prior with just one touchdown and four interceptions.

The biggest liability right now for Sparty is that their defense can’t reach opposing quarterbacks. They’ve got just one sack in their last three games and they’ve played the likes of Purdue and Minnesota, which are thanking the good lord that they won’t finish in dead last in the conference (Thanks, Bill Lynch and Indiana).

Penn State won’t let the Spartans get too many chances at hitting Matt McGloin as they’re giving up just .91 sacks per game. All McGloin has done recently is throw eight touchdowns to just two picks in his last three starts for JoePa. But they had issues stuffing the Hoosiers’ wide receivers, giving up 242 yards through the air. That could hurt this week once again with Michigan State’s solid duo of Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham.

The betting shops have posted the Spartans as slight two-point road favorites with a total of 51. That’s a high number considering that Penn State walked away with a 42-14 and 49-14 triumphs the last two seasons against Sparty. Also lending credence to the Nittany Lions is the fact that they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they’ve hosted MSU.

The Nittany Lions are also one of the better home pups to back in Big Ten battles, posting a solid 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in this role.

While the Buckeyes and Spartans are fighting to keep a piece of the conference title, Wisconsin is the only one that control its own destiny. All the Badgers have to do is take down Northwestern as 23 ½-point home favorites with a total of 47. ESPN will have the action in this one at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Wisconsin looks like the most unstoppable team in the Big Ten right now. The Badgers ripped apart Indiana 83-20 two weeks ago and Michigan 48-28 just last Saturday. They’ve also dominated Ohio State earlier in the season. And I’m willing to bet they could beat down the Spartans if they were to get a rematch.

The Badgers’ bread and butter on offense is to pound the ball down the opposition’s throat. Everyone knows about John Clay and his skills (929 rushing yards, 13 TDs), but he’s been out with a knee injury for the last few games. That hasn’t mattered for Bret Bielema since he can use either Montee Ball or James White in the backfield. Ball has been a man possessed as of late with nine touchdowns and 467 rushing yards. In fact, Wisky is the only team in the nation that can boast three running backs that have at least 600 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns each.

That kind of output has helped Scott Tolzien become a much more accurate passer. Just in the last two games, he has completed 29-of-33 of his passes for 382 and three scores. Now Tolzien is the seventh-most efficient quarterback in the land with a rating of 163.04.

Those numbers can’t look good to backers of Northwestern, who have lost four of its last six games. The rushing numbers in particular are going to be an issue. The Wildcats gave up a mind-boggling 519 rushing yards last week against Illinois at Wrigley Field.

The Wildcats will also be hurting on offense this week with Dan Persa getting knocked out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon in the final moments of their win against Iowa. That means we get to see Evan Watkins thrown to the wolves…or Badgers, as it were.

While it looks like this will be a lopsided affair, the recent series between these two teams is evenly matched. Wisconsin owns a 6-4 SU mark over the last 10 meetings. Northwestern was the team to back at the window as they’ve gone 7-3 ATS in that stretch.

How it all breaks down…

When all is said and done on Saturday, one of these three teams will be making it to the Rose Bowl with the league’s automatic bid. Here are how the Big Ten will figure out who gets that trip to Pasadena.

1 – If the Buckeyes, Spartans and Badgers finish with identical records after Saturday’s games, the berth will go to the team that finishes with the highest BCS ranking. That tiebreaker goes to the Badgers, who are ranked seventh.

2 – Michigan State would win the Rose Bowl invite if they finish tied with Wisky in the standings should Ohio State lose to the Wolverines. That’s due to the 34-24 win the Spartans had over the Badgers on Oct. 1.

3 – Wisconsin will get the automatic spot due to its head-to-head win over the Buckeyes should Michigan State lose to the Nittany Lions.

4 – Should the Badgers lose to Northwestern, either Michigan State or Ohio State will get the trip to Pasadena based on better BCS ranking.

5 – Ohio State would get the bid outright if both Wisky and Michigan State lose on Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2010, 12:26 PM

Bedlam in the Big XII South
November 24, 2010

The Bedlam Series is one of the better known rivalries in the Big XII. It’s also been one of the more lopsided affairs in college football. This Saturday’s edition between the Sooners and Cowboys in Stillwater offers up a little more drama with the Big XII South title on the line.

Oklahoma State (10-1 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) comes home to face the hated Sooners at 8:00 p.m. EST on ABC. The Cowboys are getting posted as 2 ½-point home favorites with a total of 66 ½. Although most of the offshore sportsbooks have OSU listed at -3 and the total coming in at 67.

Mike Gundy’s Cowpokes are coming off of a good two-game road trip with wins over Texas and Kansas. In last week’s game against the Jayhawks, Oklahoma State was lucky to get to the half with a 20-14 lead after Turner Gill’s club failed to convert on a fourth-and-goal early in the second quarter. Despite that slow start, the Cowboys easily covered as 24 ½-point road faves in a 48-14 win over KU.

Brandon Weeden came out firing under center with 389 yards and three touchdowns on 31-of-43 passing. That shouldn’t surprise anyone by now as Weeden has been the best quarterback in the Big XII with the most passing yards per game (343.6), touchdowns (30) and third in completion percentage (67.7) among regular starters.

So how is Weeden putting up such numbers? Well, it doesn’t hurt to have an offense that is built around the pass. And it definitely doesn’t hurt to have Justin Blackmon roaming the field. All Blackmon has done this year is lead the nation with 156.0 receiving yards per game and he also leads the country with 17 scores. And you can’t forget about Kendall Hunter, who has produced 132.8 rushing YPG and 16 touchdown this season in the OSU backfield.

That duo has helped the Cowboys become one of the better teams to wager on, covering the spread in four straight games and eight of their last nine. It also doesn’t hurt that the kids from Stillwater have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country. They have forced their opponents into turning the ball over 27 times this season. That stat has no doubt helped the ‘Pokes score 45.3 points per game to rank third nationally.

Gundy’s team will need to put up some good turnovers this week if they want to knock down the Sooners. Oklahoma (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) kept its hopes of making the last Big XII Title Game after a 53-24 win over the Bears as a 7 ½-point road “chalk” in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. The Sooners actually took most of the second half off in that game and still outscored the Bears 19-17.

Oklahoma’s success is largely related to the arm of Landry Jones, who has thrown 3,479 yards and 30 touchdowns and just seven picks this year. The only problem Jones has had this season is an offensive line that has let him get sacked 15 times. Another thing that could help out the Sooners this week would be to have some sort of running game, averaging 145.9 YPG on the ground. And I know that is kind of strange to say, but you can’t expect DeMarco Murray to shoulder all of the burden in the backfield…especially since he has 973 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. But Murray hasn’t had a 100-yard game since a 52-0 win over Iowa State on Oct. 16.

Both teams have been pretty good about avoiding the injury bug as they head into this battle. Oklahoma State has listed Justin Blackmon (ankle) as “probable” for this week, while Oklahoma listed Landry Jones (head) the same for the game.

For the Cowboys to earn the spot in the conference title game with no issues, then all they’ll have to do is win on Saturday night. That’s easier said than done for the Cowpokes as they’re 0-7 SU and 6-1 ATS over the last seven years, which includes OU’s 27-0 win as an eight-point home favorite in 2009.

What is new about this game for the Sooners for this season is that they are underdogs for the first time. That might not be such a bad thing for bettors with Oklahoma sporting a 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS mark as a road pup in Big XII games since 2000.

Oklahoma State has been a smart wager as a home “chalk” in conference play over the years, evidenced by a 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS record since 2007. The ‘over’ has gone on a 3-0 run in this setup for the Cowboys as well.

Despite the Cowboys’ powerful offense, the ‘under’ has actually gone 4-2 in their last six games this season. However, the ‘over marks in that record both came at home. OU has also seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its last six tests. Yet the ‘over’ is 3-1 in the Sooners’ road tests this season.

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