Announcement

**Udog** · 11-16-2010, 10:50 PM

NFL opening line report: Week 11

The Dallas Cowboys have been an NFL betting enigma this year. In Week 11, the saga continues.

Dallas opened the year as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, but things fell apart quickly for the Cowboys and their supporters. When Tony Romo went on the shelf and coach Wade Phillips was fired, the team officially hit rock bottom.

They opened as 14-point underdogs in Week 10’s game against the nasty New York Giants and few would have been surprised if the Cowboys rolled over, even with new interim coach Jason Garrett at the helm.

Instead, Dallas, which closed as an 11.5-point underdog, fought back and hammered the Giants 33-20.

“I’ll be the first to say we clearly over-inflated the line, making the Giants a two-TD favorite,” says Chuck Esposito, race and sports executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino. “These teams met three weeks ago and the Cowboys were 3.5-point favorites and were leading in that game 10-0 prior to Romo’s injury. We were clearly wrong and the betting public was correct as they jumped all over the Cowboys plus the points.”

So what does that mean moving forward? Can a coaching change have that big an impact on a talented, but flawed team like the Cowboys? Will they show up as 6.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions at home this week?

Greg Sindall, an oddsmaker for SportsInteraction.com, says that coaching changes have very little impact on the lines you’ll see on the board, but that doesn’t make the club any easier to handicap.

“Dallas has always had the talent in place so it’s tough to say if that win was a one-time thing,” says Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director Las Vegas Hilton. “That was a huge win for them and should carry some momentum into next week. They were so far down they didn’t have anywhere else to go but up. I would expect Cowboy money this week from the public side.”

While the Cowboys are nowhere near the Super Bowl team many thought they would be, Week 11 also features a huge game between two of the league’s best that the betting public will be all over - Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are set as 3-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.

“The Pats just attack the weakest points of any defense,” says Esposito. “They are very well coached, they’re young and they have Tom Brady. I think Indy has done it with more smoke and mirrors and it will be difficult for them to keep up that pace with so many key injuries.”

Biggest spread of the week: Seattle at New Orleans (-11.5, 44)

This line looks fat enough as it is, but Saints bettors have Matt Hasslebeck to thank for an early line move.

“Some of the books opened this high at -12.5 and it has slowly dropped from that point,” says Kornegay. “It looks like Hasselbeck is probable and that’s the reason it has moved down. Charlie Whitehurst didn’t look so good so we’ll have to keep a close eye on this one.”

New Orleans is hoping to have Reggie Bush back this week following its bye.

Smallest spread of the week: Cleveland at Jacksonville (-1, 43)

After last week’s heartbreaking overtime loss to the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns bettors have another shot at an underdog opportunity against Jacksonville.

Sindall is buying into the Browns, saying the Browns can “definitely compete with Jacksonville,” while Kornegay isn’t quite sure about this line.

“It’s interesting as the Browns have really picked up a lot of support from the oddsmakers,” he says, “and rightfully so as they have been a very stubborn opponent. I thought the Jaguars looked good against the Texans but most teams do.”

Biggest total of the week: Indianapolis at New England (-3, 50.5)

With Brady and Manning taking the snaps, you know the public is going to want to hit the over here, pretty much no matter what the total is.

“At this point, I believe the Pats are not only the better club but may be the best team in football,” Esposito says of this matchup. “This seems to change week to week with all the parity in the league, but I can guarantee no team wants to have to play in Foxboro come January. It’s a typical Belichick coached team with not tremendous star power outside of Brady. Currently the Pats are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at 6-1.”

Smallest total of the week: Baltimore at Carolina (+10, 37)

In a huge shock, the Carolina Panthers are home to the week’s lowest posted total.

The Panthers have seen only three totals of 40 points or more this season and have still managed to play under the number six times in nine games this season. Meanwhile, under bettors have cashed in five times in Baltimore games, even though the Ravens have also faced six sub-40 totals.

Trickiest line of the week:

Two nominees from our wagering gurus here: Indy-New England and Detroit-Dallas. The Patriots and Cowboys are both expected to see heavy action, so you might want to check out these lines early.

Other available early lines:

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-5, 44)
Arizona at Kansas City (-7.5, 43.5)
Houston at New York Jets (-7, 45.5)
Oakland at Pittsburgh (-9, 41.5)
Green Bay at Minnesota (+3, 43.5)
Atlanta at St. Louis (+3, 42.5)
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3, 41.5)
Denver at San Diego (-10, 49.5)

**Udog** · 11-16-2010, 10:51 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 18

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CHICAGO (6 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 4) - 11/18/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 21

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OAKLAND (5 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 3) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 5) at NY JETS (7 - 2) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 8) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 5) at TENNESSEE (5 - 4) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 7) at DALLAS (2 - 7) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (6 - 3) at MINNESOTA (3 - 6) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (1 - 8) at CINCINNATI (2 - 7) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (3 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 4) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 4) - 11/21/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (5 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 3) - 11/21/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (7 - 2) at ST LOUIS (4 - 5) - 11/21/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 6) - 11/21/2010, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) - 11/21/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-102 ATS (+20.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 3) - 11/21/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 22

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DENVER (3 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) - 11/22/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-16-2010, 10:52 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, 11/18/2010

CHICAGO at MIAMI, 8:20 PM ET NFL
CHICAGO: 1-5 ATS off win by 10+ pts
MIAMI: 2-0 ATS vs. NFC North

Sunday, 11/21/2010

OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 3-10 ATS off win as SU dog
PITTSBURGH: 13-4 Over off home game where both teams scored 24+ pts

HOUSTON at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 0-4 ATS vs. NY Jets
NY JETS: 6-0 Over playing with 6 or less days rest

BALTIMORE at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 9-1 Under off an Over
CAROLINA: 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

WASHINGTON at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 8-2 Over vs. AFC South
TENNESSEE: 36-15 ATS vs. NFC

DETROIT at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-1 ATS this season
DALLAS: 6-0 Over L6 games

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 7-0 Under Away off home win
MINNESOTA: 8-1 Under at home off an Under

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 28-8 ATS off home win by 3 pts or less
CINCINNATI: 0-7 ATS as home favorite

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 8-2 Under Away if total is 38.5 to 42
JACKSONVILLE: 10-0 Under after scoring 30+ pts BB games

ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 7-0 Over playing with 6 or less days rest
KANSAS CITY: 20-5 Over off 3+ ATS losses

SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS, 4:05 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS off SU win
NEW ORLEANS: 1-10 ATS as double digit favorite

ATLANTA at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 17-5 Under as a road favorite of 3 points or less
ST LOUIS: 6-18 ATS at home after allowing 400+ total yds

TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 35-15 Under off win by 14+ pts
SAN FRANCISCO: 8-0 ATS off ATS loss

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 14-5 Over off an Under
NEW ENGLAND: 6-0 Over if 60+ total pts were scored last game

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY GIANTS: n/a
PHILADELPHIA: n/a

Monday, 11/22/2010

DENVER at SAN DIEGO, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
DENVER: 1-10 ATS off an Over
SAN DIEGO: 53-31 ATS off BB ATS wins

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-16-2010, 10:54 PM

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 18

8:20 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Miami
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Chicago

Sunday, November 21

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Buffalo's last 21 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Jacksonville is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY JETS
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Jets last 8 games
NY Jets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TENNESSEE
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Washington is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Green Bay is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Green Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CAROLINA
Baltimore is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. KANSAS CITY
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
Kansas City is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Seattle is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Seattle
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. ST. LOUIS
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
New England is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

Monday, November 22

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games

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**Udog** · 11-17-2010, 10:36 PM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 11 games

Bears (6-3) @ Dolphins (5-4)—Chicago returns to scene of its Super Bowl loss for first time on short week after beating division rival Vikings; Bears are 3-1 on road, with only loss at Giants, when Cutler was sacked nine times in first half. Miami is crippled at QB; Pennington is out, 3rd-stringer Thigpen likely to start with Henne a question to be able to back him up (Fish signed Patrick Ramsey to be #3 QB). Dolphins got first home win in four tries last week vs. Titans. Bears are 6-1 if they score more than 14 points; Miami is allowing average of 28 peg in its four home games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Chicago games, but 0-4 in Miami’s home games.

Raiders (5-4) @ Steelers (6-3)-- Oakland upset Steelers as 10-point dogs here LY; they’re 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last four visits here. Raiders won last three games before bye, scoring 38.3 ppg, outscoring teams 67-20 in second half, running ball for 226 ypg; they’ve allowed only six TDs on 53 drives in last four games, forcing 26 3/outs. Pitt defense allowed 12 ppg in first five games (five TDs on 55 drives), 25.5 in last four (nine TDs/45 drives). Penalties don’t kill; in their 3-game win streak, Raiders have been penalized 36 times for 339 yards. Over is 5-2 in last seven Raider games, 4-1 in Steeler games since Big Ben came back.

Texans (4-5) @ Jets (7-2)—Horrific Houston defense allowed 30.8 ppg in 1-4 skid over last five games, allowing 18 TDs on last 49 drives; letting Jaguars go 64 yards on two plays in 0:08 to win game last week was ugly. Texans are 0-4 vs Jets, losing two visits here 29-7/26-11- they’re 1-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 on road. Jets won seven of last eight games, but last three wins are by 4-3-3 points; last week, they became first-ever team to win OT road games in consecutive weeks—they allowed 9-10 points in their two losses, so teams that beat them shut Sanchez down. Over is 7-1 in last eight Jet games, 6-3 in Houston games, 3-1 in their road tilts.

Ravens (6-3) @ Panthers (1-8)—Baltimore had three extra days to prepare after tough loss in Atlanta last week; Carolina has three rookies at QB; Clausen had concussion next week, so Pike could get nod here, vs Raven defense that hasn’t been as good as past years, allowing 2+ TDs in six of last seven games. Ravens are 0-3 vs. Carolina, losing last two games by combined total of five points, but teams haven’t met since ’06. Seven of nine Baltimore games were decided by 7 or less points. Seven of eight Panther losses were by 10+ points. Under is 4-1 in Baltimore road games, 6-2 in last eight Panther games.

Redskins (4-5) @ Titans (5-4)—Interesting to see how Skins respond on short week after Monday night debacle; they were first home team in NFL history to trail 28-0 in first quarter!!! Washington allowed 14 or less points in all four of its wins, 27+ in all five losses. Titan QB Collins (ankle) is out for few weeks, so if Young were to get hurt again, untested rookie Rusty Smith (played at FAU) would see first NFL action; either that, or they’d just run Wildcat the whole game. Redskins split only two visits here, with last one eight years ago. Over is 5-1 in Titans’ last six games, 3-1 in last four Washington games.

Lions (2-7) @ Cowboys (2-7)—Detroit lost to 0-8 Buffalo last week, year after they lost to 0-7 Rams, but they’re still an amazing 8-1 vs spread this year, covering last six games- they’re 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 5-14-2-8-2 points (24-10 loss at Minnesota was their only non-cover this year). Cowboys looked like new team with their new coach last week, but with champ Saints visiting on Turkey Day next week, could a 2-7 team possibly look past this game? Dallas has still allowed average of 33.2 ppg in last six games. Cowboys won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Lions actually split their last four visits here.

Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (3-6)—Minnesota outrushed Pack 196-84 in first meeting, but lost 28-24 in Lambeau (+2.5), as Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack allowed only one TD on 21 drives (ten 3/outs) in two wins since then, and should be fresh coming off bye. Capers’ defense has 10 takeaways in last three games, while offense hasn’t turned it over in last two games (+7). Minnesota allowed 21+ points in last six games, losing three of last four (11 giveaways, -6), and they trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win. All four Green Bay road games stayed under total (average total, 30.5), but over is 5-0-1 in Vikings’ last six games (average total, 47.2).

Bills (1-8) @ Bengals (2-7)-- Buffalo is 9-0 in this series since losing playoff game in Queen City 22 years ago; they won last three visits here, by 13-16-10 points. Bengals lost last six games, and were favored in three of them; they’re 1-3 at home (beat Ravens 15-10), 1-3 as favorite, 1-1 at home- they’re 0-7 when they give up more than 10 points. Last four Buffalo games were all decided by 3 or less points, after they had lost previous four games by 10+ points each. Last three Buffalo games stayed under total. Average total in last three series games is 56.0. Not sure how you could justify laying 5.5 points with team that hasn’t won in seven weeks.

Browns (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4)—Cleveland beat Jags in each of last two years, both by 23-17 scores; Browns won last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last six meetings. Improved Browns lost to 7-2 Jets in OT last week, after beating Saints/Patriots before that, but they’re just 1-3 on road, scoring 13.7 ppg in three losses. Jags won last two games- they scored 31+ points in last four wins, and are 0-4 when they score less than 24. Cleveland is 3-0 with positive turnover ratio, 0-3 without it. Jags won field position battle in seven of nine games, and found a way to win on last play last week. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 7-2 in Jaguar games this season.

Cardinals (3-6) @ Chiefs (5-4)—Chief coach Todd Haley vs team he helped get to Super Bowl as OC two years ago. Arizona is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30.8 ppg (allowed nine TDs on 36 drives in last three games); they lost last four road games, by average score of 34-13- they had two TD lead with 5:00 left in last road game, but Favre bailed Vikings out. Chiefs are 4-0 at home (1-1 as home favorite) winning by 7-21-22-3 points. KC won four of last five series games; Redbirds are 0-3-1 here, losing by 24-10-49 points, but last visit was in ’02. Seven of last eight Cardinal games, four of last five Chief games went over.

Seahawks (5-4) @ Saints (6-3)—Seattle scored 14 or less points in its losses, 22+ in its wins; Saints held three or less foes to 10 or less points. Seahawk QB Hasselbeck expected to play with broken bone in left wrist. Hawks are 2-3 on road, with losses by 17-17-30 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog, 2-2 on road. Saints should be fresh after bye; they outscored last four opponents 62-23 in second half, and allowed only one TD on 23 drives in last two games. NO is 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite, 1-3-1 at home, with wins by 5-2-10 points. All four Seattle losses are by 17+ points. Teams split ten series meetings (2-2 here), with last meeting in ’07.

Falcons (7-2) @ Rams (4-5)—Atlanta won last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TDs on 29 drives); they’re 1-2 (0-3 vs. spread) when scoring less than 20 points (only win 16-14 over 49ers). St Louis won its last four home games, allowing 11.5 ppg (gave up four TDs on 45 drives), but offense is having trouble in second half (Rams outscored 66-23 in second half of last five games). Atlanta is 2-2 on road with two OT games; they’re 4-3 as favorites, 1-1 on road. Falcons lost last five visits here, with last win here in ’98, when Tony Banks was Rams’ QB. Last four Atlanta games went over total; under is 4-1 in Rams’ home games.

Buccaneers (6-3) @ 49ers (3-6)—Home team won last seven series games, with Tampa Bay losing last eight visits here; Bucs are 1-11 on Candlestick Point, with only win vs 1-15 Niners back in 1980; teams split last six meetings, with average total of 31.5 in those six. Insertion of Troy Smith at QB has sparked 49ers, who won last two games, scoring 24-23 points, but fact is they’re just 5-24 on 3rd down in Smith’s two starts. Niners’ +6 turnover ratio (7-1) in last four games has been big help. Four of six Tampa wins have been by three or less points, as Freeman has proven to be clutch player (converted 13-23 on 3rd down in last two games). Over is 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven games.

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (7-2)—Indy won four of last five games, Patriots six of last seven. Colt offense is banged-up; their only offensive TD vs Bengals last week came on 25-yard drive after a fumble. Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 as home favorite), with three wins by 10+ points. Indy covered only Game as dog this year (L24-26 @ Philly, +3). Indy won five of last six series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Colts won last two visits here (last visit in ’06), 40-21/27-20. Average total in last six series games is 54.3; over is 4-1 in Colt road games, 7-2 in New England games this year. Brady was held to 14 points in each of his losses. Colts allowed 24+ in four of five road games. Seems like these teams play in Week 10 every year.

Giants (6-3) @ Eagles (6-3)—Big Blue was rolling along on 5-game win streak until Dallas upset them 33-20 last week, with 38-year old backup QB Kitna throwing for 14.1 yards/attempt. Eagles won four of last five games, as Vick is playing better than he ever has. Philly ran ball for 455 yards in last two games, gaining 994 yards; they’ve won field position battle in last four games. Giants offense has gained 497-487-480 total yards in last three games, even though they had two OL starters out last week. Philly won last four series games, three of which were in Swamp; Giants are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost 40-17 in LY’s visits, only home win in last six series games.

Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (4-5)—Bolts won six of last eight series games, but lost 34-23 at home to Denver LY, as Broncos raced out to 6-0 record—they’re 5-14 since then. In their last three games, wildly erratic Broncos have led 35-0 in 2nd quarter and trailed 35-0 in 2nd. Overall, they’ve lost four of last five games, are 2-5 as an underdog, with road losses by 7-14-8 points. Denver is 0-6 if they score less than 26 points. Chargers scored 33-29 points in winning last two games before their bye- they’re 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 25-31-8 points (lost at home to NE). With Chiefs losing last two games, AFC West race is wide open. Average total in last four series games is 60.5.

**Udog** · 11-18-2010, 10:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Chicago at Miami
The Dolphins look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog. Miami is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 18

Game 307-308: Chicago at Miami (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 128.961; Miami 135.617
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 39
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 409-410: Oakland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 134.373; Pittsburgh 136.060
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: Houston at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.407; NY Jets 138.230
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10; 48
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-7); Over

Game 413-414: Baltimore at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.967; Carolina 124.177
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Washington at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.071; Tennessee 137.430
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Under

Game 417-418: Detroit at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 126.528; Dallas 134.175
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Over

Game 419-420: Green Bay at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.427; Minnesota 134.119
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Under

Game 421-422: Buffalo at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.803; Cincinnati 131.215
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5); Over

Game 423-424: Cleveland at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 131.701; Jacksonville 135.072
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-1); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.721; Kansas City 132.318
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 6 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+8); Under

Game 427-428: Seattle at New Orleans (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.565; New Orleans 138.393
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Atlanta at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.169; St. Louis 131.108
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Under

Game 431-432: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.025; San Francisco 128.887
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Under

Game 433-434: Indianapolis at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.237; New England 140.050
Dunkel Line: New England by 5; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 435-436: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.379; Philadelphia 137.246
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3 1/2); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 437-438: Denver at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 124.342; San Diego 138.062
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 11-18-2010, 01:44 PM

NCAAB

Thursday, November 18

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins [NFL NETWORK | 8:20 PM ET]

BEARS: Chicago looked very impressive last week in beating the Vikings 27-13 SU. That win put the Bears 6-3 SU on the season, and in 1st place in the NFC South division. Chicago has played well on the road this year, going 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. The Bears are 3-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year. QB Jay Cutler has been able to manage the Bears offense since coming off their bye week 3 weeks ago. For the season, Cutler has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS and 12 TD's. The Bears are averaging 19.4 PPG this season, but if Cutler can continue to avoid costly mistakes, the sky is the limit in this offense. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 20 PTS against the Bears this season. The Bears are allowing just 16.2 PPG this year, 2nd fewest in the NFL. The Bears are 10-21-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU win. Chicago is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played on grass. The Bears are 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Bears are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games overall.

Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - TE Desmond Clark (neck) is questionable.

Projected Score: 16

DOLPHINS: (-1, O/U 39.5) Miami might have won the battle against the Titans last week, but they certainly didn't win the war. The Dolphins beat the Titans 29-17 SU, yet they sustained injuries to 2 QB's and to T Jake Long. Miami is likely to rely on the Wildcat exclusively tonight, in response to the QB injuries to both Chad Pennington and Chad Henne. The Dolphins are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS overall this season. Miami is 3-2 ATS as the listed favorite this season. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this year. Miami is averaging just 19.1 PPG this season, the 2nd fewest of any team with a winning record. RB Ronnie Brown is averaging less than 4 YPC this year, and only has 3 TD's on the year. Miami is allowing 21.3 PPG to their opponents this season. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Dolphins are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games as a favorite. Miami is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Dolphins are 6-25 ATS last 31 games as a home favorite.
Under is 19-9 last 28 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - T Jake Long (shoulder) is probable.

Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-19-2010, 12:20 AM

NCAAF

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 11
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Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-5)
Why Bills cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Fred Jackson racked up 170 total yards last week and will get to test a Cincinnati defense that has allowed over 100 yards rushing seven times this season.

Why Bengals cover: Buffalo’s defense has forced an NFL-low eight turnovers and ranks dead last in the league against the run.

Total (44): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Why Lions cover: Five of their seven losses this season have been decided by five points or less.

Why Cowboys cover: They responded well to new coach Jason Garrett last week and will host a Detroit squad that hasn't won on the road since Week 8 of the 2007 season.

Total (47): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: Teams have been finding ways to slow down the Chiefs’ league-leading rushing attack in recent weeks which puts more pressure on quarterback Matt Cassel.

Why Chiefs cover: The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Due to their inconsistent quarterback play, Arizona ranks second last in the NFL in total yards per game, offensive touchdowns and passer rating.

Total (44): Over is 7-1 in the Cardinals' last eight games and 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five games.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (-7)
Why Texans cover: They could follow Cleveland's formula from last week and keep the game within reach by pounding the ball on the ground with Arian Foster, who leads the league in rushing.

Why Jets cover: The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. Matt Schaub was hospitalized this week to deal with a bursa sac problem in his knee and will not be at 100 percent.

Total (45.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Why Browns cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Jacksonville. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Jaguars cover: David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew are playing their best football of the season and the Browns will be without second-leading tackler Scott Fujita and possibly cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is questionable.

Total (43): Over is 4-0 in the Browns' last four games and 5-1 in the Jaguars' last six games.

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)
Why Raiders cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. They could get both Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller back from their injuries.

Why Steelers cover: They allow a league-low 63.2 yards per game on the ground. If Oakland can't get its rushing game going it will be up to an inconsistent Jason Campbell to move the ball through the air.

Total (41.5): Over is 5-2 in the Raiders' last seven road games and 4-1 in the Steelers' last five games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (+10)
Why Ravens cover: The Panthers average an NFL-worst 11.6 points per game and will start rookie Tony Pike at quarterback with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore out.

Why Panthers cover: The Ravens' defense has been uncharacteristically porous recently, allowing 23.3 points per game over their last four contests.

Total (37): Under is 5-1 in the Ravens' last six road games and 12-4 in the Panthers' last 16 games overall.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3)
Why Packers cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Why Vikings cover: The Packers are banged up on defense with defensive end Ryan Pickett and sack machine Clay Matthews questionable for Sunday.

Total (44): Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings and 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Minnesota.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-7)
Why Redskins cover: Keiland Williams has averaged 5.18 yards per carry and has scored four touchdowns in two games since replacing injured Ryan Torain at running back.

Why Titans cover: They will get Vince Young back from his ankle injury to face a Washington defense that continues to get torched, allowing an NFL-high 415.3 yards per game.

Total (44): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams (+3)
Why Falcons cover: Their no-huddle offense is keeping opposing defenses on their heels and allowing Matt Ryan and Roddy White to make big plays downfield.

Why Rams cover: The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. The home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Total (43): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: They are averaging 140 yards per game on the ground since anointing LeGarrette Blount the lead rusher. Joe Nedney's absence will be a huge blow to the 49ers' special teams.

Why 49ers cover: The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Troy Smith has thrown for 552 yards and has not committed a turnover in two games since becoming the 49ers’ starting quarterback.

Total (41.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-12)
Why Seahawks cover: They could get rookie left tackle Russell Okung back from his ankle injury to protect Matt Hasselbeck and open up hole for the running game.

Why Saints cover: Reggie Bush could finally return from his broken fibula to spark the ground game. Their defense is holding opponents to just 16.8 points per game.

Total (44.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-3)
Why Colts cover: They're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The underdog is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The past five meetings have been decided by seven points or less.

Why Patriots cover: The Colts are only averaging 81.6 rushing yards per game since Joseph Addai went down and with all the injured receivers, Indianapolis could have a hard time keeping up with New England's offense.

Total (50.5): Over is 7-1 in the Colts' last eight road games and 4-1 in the Patriots' last five home games.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Why Giants cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Philadelphia. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Michael Vick is coming off arguably the best game of his career and has the ability to avoid New York's feared pass rush which is their biggest asset.

Total (48.5): Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-10)
Why Broncos cover: Antonio Gates is dealing with a foot injury and is questionable to suit up on Monday. Running back Ryan Mathews is also in danger of missing this game with an injured ankle.

Why Chargers cover: The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Receivers Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd are both expected to return from their hamstring injuries.

Total (50.5): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and the top two passers in the league will face off.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2010, 09:27 PM

NFL

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NFL weather report: Wind and rain in Week 11
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The Football Gods have blessed most of the league with either a domed roof or mild weather in Week 11. However, these four spots must have missed their weekly sacrifice and are being punished with wind and rain this Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 42.5)

The sun will be shinning in Cincinnati, despite the Bengals' recent play. There will be a strong-to-medium wind blowing South-Southwest from corner to corner at speeds of up to 16 mph. Temperatures will dip into the high 50s at Paul Brown Stadium.

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 43.5)

Strong winds are expected for Arrowhead Stadium Sunday. Gust of up to 21 mph will whip through the stadium, blowing South-Southwest from corner to corner. The skies, however, will be clear with temps in the low 50s.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-7, 44)

The winds in LP Field will blow the stink off the Redskins after their smelly performance against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The forecast is calling for medium, Southwest winds of up to 15 mph and a game-time temperature in the high 60s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 41.5)

The forecast in the Bay Area is calling for showers with winds reaching up to 16 mph in Candlestick. Temperatures will fall into the mid 50s. Bettors could get a lot from running backs Frank Gore and LeGarrette Blount, however, this total has been on the climb since posting at 40 points.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2010, 09:31 PM

NFL

Week 11

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Sunday Night Football: Giants at Eagles
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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47.5)

The New York Giants' defense looked flat-footed a week ago. It's a good bet they'll be on their toes this week.

The Michael Vick Experience will be on display when the New York Giants pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night in a showdown for first place in the NFC East.

Odds

The spread opened at as high as 3.5 in favor of the Eagles but has come down to a field goal at most books. The total was originally posted at 48, moving to 47.5 with action on the under.

Ups and downs

Both teams are 6-3 heading into Sunday's night clash but are coming off decidedly different outcomes.

While the Giants (5-4 ATS) saw their five-game winning streak come crashing to a halt at the hands of division rival Dallas, Vick put on a show for the ages as the Eagles (4-5 ATS) annihilated NFC East foe Washington 59-28 in a Monday night laugher.

G-O-A-T

Vick turned in a performance that former Redskins quarterback Joe Theismann called the best he's ever seen, throwing for 333 yards and four touchdowns and rushing for 80 yards and a pair of scores on just eight carries.

These were not garbage-time stats, either. Vick threw three scoring passes and ran for one as the Eagles bolted to a 35-0 lead just nine seconds into the second quarter.

In the process, Vick became the first quarterback in NFL history to register 300 yards, 50 yards rushing, four passing scores and two rushing TDs in a single game.

Not too shabby from a player who opened the season as a backup quarterback.

The show-stopping performance was hardly an aberration for Vick, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes and not been intercepted while completing nearly 63 percent of his passes and compiling an NFL-leading 115.1 passer rating.

The only blemish on Vick's resume this season came in the form of a rib cage injury that forced him to the sidelines for a month and caused him to miss three starts.

That could be one of the few avenues to slow Vick for New York’s No. 1-ranked defense, which has 25 sacks and has already sent five quarterbacks to the sideline this season with injuries.

Birds of a feather

Vick has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including wideout DeSean Jackson, who hauled in an 88-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage to spark last week’s rout.

Running back LeSean McCoy has been an outstanding dual threat for the Eagles, rushing for 615 yards and five touchdowns and leading all NFL backs with 46 receptions.

Book of Eli

While Philadelphia has amassed an NFC-high 257 points, New York ranks second in the conference with 236.

The Giants had averaged a shade over 32 points during their five-game winning streak before they were brought back to earth in last week’s 33-20 loss to Dallas.

Eli Manning threw for 373 yards – his third 300-yard effort of the season - and two touchdowns but he was also intercepted twice, including one that was brought back 101 yards for a score.

When he last saw the Eagles on Dec. 13, 2009, Manning had one of the best games of his career, throwing for 391 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a 45-38 defeat – New York’s fourth consecutive loss to Philadelphia.

Back to basics

The Giants will need to re-establish its running game and defense, which was torched by 38-year-old Jon Kitna for 327 yards and three touchdowns a week ago.

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is tied for third in the NFL with 838 yards rushing and backfield mate Brandon Jacobs has added 327 yards. Each has scored five touchdowns.

They will be running behind a patchwork offensive line that is expected to be without starters Shaun O’Hara and David Diehl. Pro Bowl wide receiver Steve Smith also will miss the game with a pectoral injury.

Weather

The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for clear skies and game-time temperatures in the lows 40s. There is a slight breeze, blowing at around 6 mph and a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

Trends

- Underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Giants are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 11.
- Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2010, 11:03 PM

NFL

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NFL Total Bias: Week 11 over/under predictions
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Tom Brady gets the reputation of a bit of a Nancy a lot of the time, doesn’t he?

The long hair, the GQ photoshoots, the girls and the glam. He’s the NFL’s modern day Joe Namath, minus the inappropriate booze-addled propositions of lady sideline reporters – so far, anyway.

But despite the rep, if there’s one guy in the league you don’t want to piss off, it’s Thomas Edward Brady Jr.

Last week against the Steelers, Tommy got pretty fired up. The Pats were coming off a shocking loss to the Cleveland Browns the week before and Pittsburgh paid for it.

There was Brady calling out guys on the sideline, yelling at his lineman and receivers on the field, looking generally like he was about ready to smack somebody up. He zinged three touchdown passes to rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski and ended up with 350 yards on the day. He actually ran another in and then old-school spiked that football like it had kissed his sister.

The Indianapolis Colts had to be shaking their heads watching those highlights all like “thanks for getting the Golden Boy all riled up, Pittsburgh.”

I just love these Colts-Pats matchups, but absolutely hate betting on them – especially the totals. Right now the over/under for Sunday’s tilt is around 50 or 50.5, which is actually down a bit from the opening number of 51. That’s not entirely shocking as a lot of sharps have jumped on this early before it’ll probably move back up with a wave of public over bets as the weekend nears.

It’s a tricky line though. On one hand you have Brady and a bunch of other guys that basically show up and get hit in the numbers by footballs all day (Wes Welker, offensive line excluded). On the other you have robot Peyton Manning, programmed to draw up play diagrams, complete with audibles out of the no-huddle even while his computer brain is in sleep mode.

The two defenses involved don’t make it any easier. New England sits 30th against the pass, while Indy is 29th against the run. Of course, the Pats usually throw in a few running plays here and there just to set up the pass and same thing for the Colts. I think that’s the factor you need to focus on when handicapping this total - are either of these teams even going to bother trying to run or is it going to be Peyton vs. Tom all day?

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-4, 50.5)

New England is known for attacking the most glaring deficiency of each defense it faces and I don’t think this game will be any different. The Pats don’t want Peyton on the field all day long, so I think they’ll at least try to establish some sort of running game to work the clock – in theory, anyway.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is producing when given the opportunity and just put up 87 rushing yards on 17 carries against the Steelers. He’s the guy to look for when Brady isn’t firing it around all over the field.

I really wish I was filing this column later in the week because I do think this total’s going back up, and I’ve been leaning toward the under since the open. That said, if Peyton puts a couple in the end zone early, we could be in for fireworks. Yeesh.

Pick: Under

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)

I missed my first Monday Nighter in recent memory last week (I know, great timing), so I had to catch Mike Vick’s insanity later on NFL Replay. I absolutely hate missing out on huge games, and a lot of the luster from No. 7’s big day had worn off a bit. Plus, I was just jealous of everybody who did watch it live.

It was one of the performances you’re not going to see very often and I can’t see the Giants getting lit up like that. With Mike Vick fever running wild, the word is out. New York’s defense isn’t going to contain Mike Vick because I just don’t think he’s containable, but you know Mike Coughlin is going to be on his club all week to make sure they don’t get embarrassed.

This is the kind of challenge the Giants get up for.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams (3, 43)

It took me a while, but I’m officially on the Atlanta Falcons’ bandwagon.

Last week I was expecting the Falcons to grind it out on the ground against the Ravens and Matt Ryan steps up and fires for 316 yards and three touchdowns. He faces another defense that’s pretty solid this week. St. Louis allows only 18.2 points per game and is great against the run, checking in at sixth in the league giving up about 98 yards an outing.

Problem is, St. Louis is having issues with its pass defense. Last week Troy Smith chucked for more than 350 yards against the Rams.

If Smith can manage a game like that with his ragtag receivers, Ryan and Roddy White could really go off on Sunday.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 14-17

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**Udog** · 11-20-2010, 11:06 PM

NFL

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What bettors need to know: Colts at Patriots
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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-4, 50)

The New England Patriots turned in their finest performance of the season a week ago with a lopsided victory in Pittsburgh.

Their reward? A visit from Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

One of the league's best non-division rivalries will resume for the eighth consecutive season, highlighted by the marquee quarterback matchup between four-time league MVP Manning and three-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady.

Matchup History

After struggling against the Patriots for much of the early part of his career, Manning has had the upper hand in the rivalry in recent years as the Colts have won four of the past five matchups.

That includes last season's stunning 35-34 victory in Indianapolis, when the Colts roared back from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit and capitalized on a stunning gamble by New England coach Bill Belichick, who went for it on fourth-and-2 deep in his own territory with just over two minutes to play.

Manning and the Colts are 4-1-1 against the spread versus the Patriots since 2005.

“They (the Pats) are a good team, arguably playing as well as anybody and it’s a tough place to play,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell told reporters. “It’s always been a huge rivalry because both teams have been playing well whenever we’ve met, so there’s a lot at stake.”

Injury Report

Manning has led the injury-riddled Colts (6-3) to four wins in the last five games to move atop the AFC South with a one-game lead over Tennessee and Jacksonville.

Manning was without two of his best weapons in tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Austin Collie as well as running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart. Clark is lost for the season, Addai and Hart are expected to miss and Austin Collie looks like he’ll be a game-day decision.

Clark had great success in the past gashing the middle of the Patriots' secondary, and Manning will likely look to continue to feed his replacement, Jacob Tamme, who has 24 receptions and two touchdowns in the last three games.

New England is relatively healthy with safety Patrick Chung as its only questionable starter.

Back To Business

The Patriots rebounded from a 20-point loss to Cleveland and dominated in all phases in their win over Pittsburgh, blitzing often and sacking quarterback Ben Roethlisberger five times.

They are likely to employ a similar strategy against Manning, who has been sacked 12 times – more than his 2009 season total – including five in the last two weeks.

Brady threw for a season-high 350 yards and three touchdowns – all to rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski – in carving up the Pittsburgh secondary.

Pound The Ground

New England will to establish its ground game against the Colts, who have the 27th-rated rushing defense in the NFL. It will also keep Manning from attacking New England’s 30th-ranked pass defense.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 87 yards on 18 carries last week and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, but he also has had three games in which he rushed for 24 yards or less.

As mentioned, the Colts are missing starting running back Joseph Addai, which means Donald Brown will get the start in the backfield. He finished with 69 rushing yards and a touchdown in Indy’s win over Cincy but he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Home And Away

The Patriots have scored a league-high 258 points and are 4-0 at home, but their suspect defense has surrendered at least 20 points in seven of their nine games.

Brady can make history Sunday when he goes for his 25th consecutive home win, which would tie Brett Favre for the longest streak in NFL annals.

Indy is 2-3 (2-2-1 ATS) on the road this season and is surrendering 25.6 points in its five away games compared to just 14.3 points at home.

Line Moves

Oddsmakers opened Pats -3 but the line has been bet up to Colts +4. The total opened at 50 got bet down to 49 but is back at 50 or 50.5 at most shops.

Trends

The Colts are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.

The Pats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall but just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.

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**Udog** · 11-21-2010, 10:09 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 21

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Tips and Trends
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PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44) Green Bay has won their past 3 games heading into tonight, yet are also coming off their bye week. Time and time again we've seen teams that were successful going into their bye week coming out a bit sluggish after their time off. The Packers are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS overall this season. As great as this Packers offense is, their defense doesn't get the same credit. Green Bay is only allowing 15.9 PPG this year, 2nd best in the NFL. Green Bay is tied for the NFL lead with 28 sacks this year. The Packers are averaging nearly 25 PPG this season, 9th best in football. QB Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for 2,300 YDS and 15 TD's while completing better than 63% of his passes. The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games played in November. Green Bay is 7-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Packers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Packers are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 road games. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite up to a field goal.

Packers are 18-8 ATS last 26 games against the NFC North.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - WR Donald Driver (quad) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

VIKINGS: Minnesota gets their opportunity for revenge tonight, as they have already lost to the Packers this season. The Vikings lost 24-28 SU to the Packers less than a month ago. Minnesota has been a disappointment all year long, as they are just 3-6 SU on the season. The Vikings are also only 2-7 ATS this year, with both ATS wins coming at home. The Vikings are averaging just 18.8 PPG this year, 7th worst in the NFL. QB Brett Favre has struggled this year and is banged up. Favre has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS, but has 16 INT's against only 10 TD's. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 908 YDS this season, 2nd most in the NFL. Defensively, Minnesota has allowed each of their past 4 opponents to score at least 24 PTS. The Vikings are allowing 21.7 PPG for the entire season. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Vikings are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as the listed underdog.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles [GamNBC | 8:30 PM ET]

GIANTS: New York had won 5 consecutive games before losing in shocking fashion at home last week to Dallas. The Giants were embarrassed 20-33 SU, and want nothing more than to get right back on the field. New York is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS overall this season. The Giants are 3-1 both SU and ATS overall on the road this season. New York is averaging 26.2 PPG this year, 6th best in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has thrown for nearly 2,500 YDS this season, including 19 TD's. RB Ahman Bradshaw has been brilliant this year, rushing for 838 YDS and 5 TD's. WR Hakeem Nicks is having a breakout season in his own right, with 735 receiving YDS and 9 TD's this season. New York is allowing 21.4 PPG this year. The Giants are effective on defense because of their intimidation factor, as their pass rushers have injured numerous QB's this year. The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. New York is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. The Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. New York is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Giants are 12-4 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games against the NFC East.

Key Injuries - TE Kevin Boss (abdominal) is probable.

Projected Score: 23 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

EAGLES: (-3, O/U 48.5) Philadelphia has quickly become one of the favorites to challenge for the Super Bowl this year. QB Michael Vick is a huge reason for the Eagles success this season, both on the field and with ratings. There is no doubting that Vick brings instant excitement to the field and to the television screen. The Eagles are 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS overall this season. Philadelphia is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in home game this year. Vick leads an offense that is averaging 28.6 PPG, 2nd best in the NFL. Philadelphia is 1 of 3 teams that is averaging more than 400 YPG this season. Vick leads the entire NFL with a 115.1 QB Rating this year. Defensively, the Eagles are allowing 23.2 PPG, but that statistic is a bit misleading. Plenty of points have been scored against the Eagles in garbage time. The Eagles have been a big play defense all year long, something they hope to continue as they inch near the playoffs. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC East. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.

Eagles are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games played on grass.

Key Injuries - DB Ellis Hobbs (hip) is out.

Projected Score: 21

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**Udog** · 11-21-2010, 10:14 PM

NFL

Monday, November 22

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What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 50)

Current Odds

The Chargers opened as 10-point home favorites and the line has since dropped down to 9.5 and 9 in most locations. This isn’t a surprise since 56 percent of the public is supporting the Broncos according to the *********** consensus.

The over/under line opened at 48 and jumped up to 50 total points and 67 percent of the public is predicting a high-scoring game according to the *********** consensus. The weather will not be a factor as the forecast is calling for clear conditions with only a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 60-degree range at kickoff.

Injury Report

Denver wide receiver Eddie Royal was limited in Saturday’s practice and remains questionable to play tonight with a hamstring injury. Royal is third on the team with 43 receptions and 466 receiving yards this season, and he’s also a key contributor on special teams.

Denver linebacker Robert Ayers and safety Renaldo Hill are both questionable, while cornerback Andre Goodman is expected to miss tonight’s game.

San Diego enters off a bye week, but they still have some serious injury concerns on offense. Tight end Antonio Gates has been downgraded to doubtful after missing the most recent game at Houston two weeks ago. Gates leads the team in receiving with 40 receptions and 663 yards this season and nine touchdowns.

Running back Ryan Matthews has also been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. Mathews is the Chargers’ first-round draft choice from Fresno State this season and is second on the team with 382 rushing yards.

San Diego wide receiver Vincent Jackson has not played this season due to a suspension, while WR Legedu Naanee is doubtful with a hamstring injury.

The Chargers expect to have WR Malcolm Floyd back in the lineup tonight as he is probable after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Despite playing only six games this season, Floyd is still second on the team with 513 receiving yards and leads the team with an incredible 21.4 yards per catch.

One-Dimensional Offense

Denver is strictly a passing team. The Broncos average 297 yards through the air per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per pass attempt. They cannot run the ball a lick as they average just 77 yards on the ground per game. But, according to reports, the Broncos will make running the ball their top priority going forward.

”It’s important to be able to run the ball on the road during this time of year,” Broncos wide receiver Brandon Lloyd said.

And running back Knowshon Moreno hinted that may be Denver’s game plan against San Diego.

“Whatever they want, if they want to hand it to me 30 times, I’m down for it,” Moreno said. “I feel pretty fresh right now, feel like I'm hitting the holes pretty hard, pretty fast.”

Head coach Josh McDaniels agrees: “We need to get him going. We’ve always felt he’s an every-down back who had the skill set to play in a lot of different situations.”

It’s hard to change a team’s identity this late in the season so it will be interesting to see if the Broncos do run the ball more in this game.

Hamstrung No More

The Chargers’ offense, especially their wide receivers, has been hit hard by injuries this season.

San Diego’s offense was still putting up big passing numbers without their top receivers on the field, so it’s scary to think what they’ll do now that they’ve got Floyd back.

“I don’t think there’s a play we’ve been hesitant to call or a play that we’ll call more so now that Floyd and Naanee are back,” said Rivers. “Really, that’s the beauty of the system we have, with Norv Turner and the offensive staff.”

They’ll still be without Vincent Jackson who is finishing his three-game suspension and most likely without Antonio Gates who has a plantar fascia injury in his right foot. But Rivers is still confident in the guys he’s throwing to.

“A couple guys go down and we keep the ball rolling. It’s been impressive what those guys have done and, collectively, what the group has done. And now we’re heading into the stretch run.”

Rivers Owns Denver

Rivers has played some of his best games against the Broncos. In eight career games against Denver, Rivers owns a 117.1 passer rating which is his highest among teams he’s faced more than twice. He’s thrown 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions in those eight games with San Diego winning six of the games.

“I do like playing them,” said Rivers. “All the division games seem like rivalries, but this one, maybe it’s because they have happened to be the team we’re battling to win the division every year.”

Denver’s secondary is allowing opponents to throw for 230 yards per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos allowed Kansas City to throw for 433 yards last week, and Indianapolis threw for 325 yards on them earlier this season.

Since San Diego throws for 312 yards per game on an impressive 8.5 yards per pass attempt, there’s no reason to think Rivers won’t have another monster game against the Broncos.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/18 - 11/22)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/18 - 11/22)

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