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NCAAF
Friday, November 12
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What Bettors Need to Know
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We got a mixed bag on Friday night, with one game featuring two of the worst teams in college football and the other with national title implications.
Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-3, 47)
Why Ball State covers
Beating 0-10 Akron doesn’t prove much, but the Cardinals’ come from behind overtime win might just give them enough confidence against another MAC cellar dweller. The game had a bit of a dramatic ending as well with TE David Schneider catching the winning TD. The freshman ranked at the bottom of the depth chart and was pretty much the last option for that game-winning play.
The statistics are ugly with both of these two teams - they rank in the bottom of nearly every category, so the key here for Ball State backers is momentum and attitude.
Buffalo goes into the contest on a four-game losing streak and has pretty much given up on the season, while Ball State got a jolt of confidence last week from an unlikely source.
Why Buffalo covers
Injuries. Ball State is one of the few teams in college football that hasn’t had a bye week yet and the schedule is taking its toll. It doesn’t help either that it is a short week for the Cardinals or that they had a double OT game.
"These guys are tired," Ball State head coach Parrish said. "We've had no open date. Most everybody's had an open date. We've been playing football since early August. At certain positions we've been wiped out."
Also home field advantage is huge in games of this nature with both teams on equal setting in terms of talent.
Notes on the Total
The over has hit in each of the two sides’ five matchups and this is the lowest total (46.5) in series history. Popular opinion is slightly in favor of the over, even though the line has moved from down 47.
Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals (+34.5, 63)
Why Boise State covers
Guess who the odd man out is in the national title picture again? With no playoff and no decent team left on the schedule, Boise’s last resort is to blow out the four remaining teams on its schedule. As much as people joke about it, it would be short sided to think that voters or the players themselves aren’t aware of the spread.
The Broncos look to come out strong against their instate rivals and the second ranked offense in points scored per game should have no problem putting up points against a defense that ranks 101st in the nation. Don't forget either that Idaho has given up 108 points in its last two games.
Why Idaho covers
The Broncos do not enjoy playing in the claustrophobia-inducing Kibbie Dome. Boise State president Bob Kustra even referred to the culture in Moscow, Idaho as "nasty" and "inebriated".
And while the Vandals have not beaten the Broncos since 1998, they have done well against the spread at home covering at the Kibbie Dome in their last two meetings.
Idaho looks to balance out the offense a bit more and this will work in backers favor as it has proved more effective in the past. In their blowout losses to Hawaii and Nevada, the Vandals had a 52 to 20 and a 41 to 19 pass/rush ratio.
Earlier in the year when they covered against Nebraska the rush to pass ratio was 39 to 38. More emphasis on the run should also take more time of the clock.
Notes on the Total
A couple books opened the total up at 61.5 but it has settled at 63.5 now at most places. The over has hit four times in the last five meetings in this contest.
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Friday, November 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Bettors Need to Know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We got a mixed bag on Friday night, with one game featuring two of the worst teams in college football and the other with national title implications.
Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-3, 47)
Why Ball State covers
Beating 0-10 Akron doesn’t prove much, but the Cardinals’ come from behind overtime win might just give them enough confidence against another MAC cellar dweller. The game had a bit of a dramatic ending as well with TE David Schneider catching the winning TD. The freshman ranked at the bottom of the depth chart and was pretty much the last option for that game-winning play.
The statistics are ugly with both of these two teams - they rank in the bottom of nearly every category, so the key here for Ball State backers is momentum and attitude.
Buffalo goes into the contest on a four-game losing streak and has pretty much given up on the season, while Ball State got a jolt of confidence last week from an unlikely source.
Why Buffalo covers
Injuries. Ball State is one of the few teams in college football that hasn’t had a bye week yet and the schedule is taking its toll. It doesn’t help either that it is a short week for the Cardinals or that they had a double OT game.
"These guys are tired," Ball State head coach Parrish said. "We've had no open date. Most everybody's had an open date. We've been playing football since early August. At certain positions we've been wiped out."
Also home field advantage is huge in games of this nature with both teams on equal setting in terms of talent.
Notes on the Total
The over has hit in each of the two sides’ five matchups and this is the lowest total (46.5) in series history. Popular opinion is slightly in favor of the over, even though the line has moved from down 47.
Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals (+34.5, 63)
Why Boise State covers
Guess who the odd man out is in the national title picture again? With no playoff and no decent team left on the schedule, Boise’s last resort is to blow out the four remaining teams on its schedule. As much as people joke about it, it would be short sided to think that voters or the players themselves aren’t aware of the spread.
The Broncos look to come out strong against their instate rivals and the second ranked offense in points scored per game should have no problem putting up points against a defense that ranks 101st in the nation. Don't forget either that Idaho has given up 108 points in its last two games.
Why Idaho covers
The Broncos do not enjoy playing in the claustrophobia-inducing Kibbie Dome. Boise State president Bob Kustra even referred to the culture in Moscow, Idaho as "nasty" and "inebriated".
And while the Vandals have not beaten the Broncos since 1998, they have done well against the spread at home covering at the Kibbie Dome in their last two meetings.
Idaho looks to balance out the offense a bit more and this will work in backers favor as it has proved more effective in the past. In their blowout losses to Hawaii and Nevada, the Vandals had a 52 to 20 and a 41 to 19 pass/rush ratio.
Earlier in the year when they covered against Nebraska the rush to pass ratio was 39 to 38. More emphasis on the run should also take more time of the clock.
Notes on the Total
A couple books opened the total up at 61.5 but it has settled at 63.5 now at most places. The over has hit four times in the last five meetings in this contest.
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