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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/2 - 11/6)

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  • #16
    NCAAF
    Write-Up



    Friday's games
    Central Michigan won four of last five games vs Western Michigan, with Broncos losing last two visits here, 38-28 (-1.5)/31-7 (+6). Broncos are 2-5 vs I-A teams, routing lowly Akron/Ball State. Chippewas lost their last five games (were favored in three of five). MAC home favorites of less than 9 points are 2-4 vs spread this season. Last three Central games stayed under the total- they're 0-3 as a home favorite this season.

    Home side won all three Central Florida-Houston games; Knights lost in only visit here, 51-31; average total in series meetings is 70.3. UCF won its last four games, converting 31-50 on 3rd down; they're 5-1 as a fave, 2-0 on road, winning away games by 14-35-21 points. Houston is using its #3 QB, but scored 101 points in winning last two games, both on the road. Last three Central Florida games went over the total.


    Saturday's games
    Highlighted games

    Clemson won last six games vs NC State by 16-point average, with Pack losing last two visits here 27-9 (+20)/20-14 (+18). Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Tigers are 2-4 vs I-A opponents, 0-4 if they give up more than 13 points- they're 2-0-1 as home fave. NC State is 3-1 as underdog this year; average total in their three road games, 60.7. Under is 6-0-1 in Clemson games this season.

    Michigan lost back/back games to Illinois for first time since '58; they've lost last three games, with no takeaways (-7), allowing 37.0 ppg in last four. Wolverines are 2-3 as a favorite this year; Rodriguez has awful 3-17 record SU in Oct/Nov with Wolverines. Illinois won three of last four games, scoring 87 points last two weeks; they're 1-1 on road, whipping Penn State 33-13 (+7.5), losing 26-6 at Michigan St (+7; led 6-3 as half).

    Joe Paterno goes for win #400 here; he beat Northwestern in last three meetings, 34-13 (-17), 33-7 here (-19), 34-29 (-8). Underdogs are 5-2 in Wildcat games this year; Northwestern is 4-0 on road, scoring 25.5 ppg against four weak teams. PSU was held to 3-3-13 points in three losses; they're 1-2 as home favorite this year, 2-8 in last 10 tries as favorite at home. Five of last seven Penn State games went over total.

    Oklahoma State is 13-1 in last 14 games vs Baylor, winning last couple games played here, 34-6 (-17)/66-24 (-16), but 2010 Bears are improved, scoring 30+ points in last six games (5-1) beating Texas last week for the first time in 13 years. Baylor allowed 45 points in both losses this year, 45-10 at TCU (+21), 45-38 on neutral field to Texas Tech (+2.5). Four of last five Baylor games went over the total, as have six of eight OSU games. Cowboys are 4-1-1 as a favorite this season.

    SEC home favorites of 10 or less points are 10-3 vs spread so far in '10. Home side won last three Arkansas-South Carolina games, with South Carolina losing three of last four meetings (favorites covered four of last five in series). Arkansas scored 130 points in last three games; they had 21+ points at half in last four, and held foes to 11 of last 52 on 3rd down conversions. Razorbacks' last three games all went over the total.

    Don't sleep on Hawai'i team that won/covered last five games, holding all five teams to 27 or less points; they've lost eight of last nine meetings vs Boise State, losing last two games on blue turf, 27-7/41-34. Broncos won 33-30 vs Va Tech, 37-24 over Oregon State against two good teams they played earlier this year. Hawai'i's two losses were 49-36 to USC, 31-13 at Colorado. Five of last seven Boise games went over the total.

    Oklahoma won last seven games vs Texas A&M, winning last two visits here, 17-16/66-28; Sooners struggled on road this year, beating Cincinnati 31-29 (-14), Texas 28-20 (-3.5), losing 36-27 at Missouri (-3). Aggies are 5-3, scoring 45 points in each of last two games; they're 0-1-1 as the dog, losing 38-35 at home to Oklahoma State, 24-17 vs Arkansas on a neutral field. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-9 against the spread.

    Visitor is 3-2 in last five Arizona-Stanford games, with four of five won by five or less points (dogs 3-2 vs spread). Arizona is underdog for first time this year; they covered three of last four as a dog LY. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams. Stanford is 1-2 as home favorite in 2010; they scored 41 ppg in last seven games, but before they waxed hapless Wash State last week, they had allowed 38.3 ppg in previous three.

    Home side won four of last five TCU-Utah games; Horned Frogs lost last two visits here, 13-10/20-7. TCU is 11-3 vs spread in last 14 regular season games- they outscored last five opponents 90-3 in second half of games. Utah won 28-23 at Air Force last week, but Falcons scored last two TDs, making it seem closer than it was. Not exactly sure how Utah is 8-0 and a 5-point home underdog. MWC home dogs of 14 points or less are 4-0-1 vs spread so far this season.

    Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Oregon State's road games this year, with Beavers 1-3 as favorite; OSU won 34-6 in last visit here, after losing the previous two visits, 25-7/51-28. UCLA lost last three games, giving up average of 41.3 ppg- they were outscored 79-10 in first half of the three games. Single digit home underdogs are 1-3 in Pac-10 this year. Four of last five UCLA games went over the total.

    Missouri won last two games vs Texas Tech, 41-10/38-21; Tigers lost first game of year last week at Nebraska- three of their last four games stayed under total. Only third road game of year for Mizzou, which had big 30-9 win at Texas A&M in road opener. Texas Tech lost four of last six games, allowing 38.4 ppg in last five. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-9 against the spread this year.

    Saban makes second trip back to LSU; he won first two meetings against his old team, 24-15 LY (-7), 27-21 in OT (-3) in '08. Tide is 2-1 on road this year, winning at Duke (62-13), Arkansas (24-20), losing at South Carolina (35-21)- they have ten INTs in last five games. LSU lost tough game at Auburn last time out, their first loss of year; for a team without lot of takeaways (-4 in turnovers last five games) and subpar QB play, Tigers win lot of games. Three of Bama's last four road games went over the total. Both teams had last week off.

    USC is 5-3, losing three of last four games; they scored 31-35-32 points in their three losses. Trojans won last 10 games vs Arizona State, taking last two played here, 28-0 (-26)/28-21 (-19). USC is just 4-3 in its last seven home games overall. Sun Devils are 3-1 as road underdog this year, with only one road loss by more than a FG. ASU is -8 in turnovers last five games. Pac-10 home favorites of less than 8 points are 6-2 in '10.

    Rest of the Card
    -- Air Force is 12-1 in last 13 games vs Army, winning last six visits to West Point by average of 19 points. Falcons lost last three games overall, are 1-3 on road, with only road win 20-14 at Wyoming. Six of last seven Air Force games stayed under total.
    -- Maryland won four of last five games; they're 2-2 as road dog in 2010, losing away games by 14-24 points; since '06, Terrapins are 9-11 as road dog. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Miami games. Not sure if injured Miami QB Harris will return to action here or not.
    -- Duke beat Virginia 28-17/31-3 last two years, after losing 17 of last 19 games vs Cavaliers; Blue Devils are 1-6 vs I-A foes, allowing 39.3 ppg. Four of last five Virginia games went over the total.
    -- Underdog covered last five Louisville-Syracuse games, with an average total of 55.3 in last four. Orange won three of last four games (all as dog) allowing total of 30 points in the wins. Cardinals are 1-3 as underdogs.
    -- Iowa is 5-1 as a favorite this year, 1-0 on road; four of its five wins vs I-A opponents are by 21+ points. Hawkeyes covered last four tries as a road favorite. Indiana is 0-4 in Big 11, 2-0 as home dog, losing 42-35 to Michigan (+10), 20-17 (+3.5) to Northwestern last week.

    -- Boston College won four of last five games vs Wake Forest, but Eagles lost five of last six games, are 0-2 on road, losing 44-17 at NC State (+9), 24-19 at Florida State (+22). Wake lost last six games, with four losses by 31+ points.
    -- Wisconsin won last four games vs Purdue by 18-point average. Boilers are down to #3 QB- they lost last two games by combined 93-10, both on road. Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Wisconsin games this season.
    -- Underdog is 6-2 SU in Michigan State-Minnesota games, as Gophers won last three meetings, 41-18/31-18/42-34. Minnesota lost last seven games, allowing 36 ppg in last four. Spartans had first loss last week, but covered the four games before that. Florida
    -- Florida State won 30-27 in Chapel Hill LY, after trailing 24-6 in 3rd quarter; Seminoles are 3-2 as favorite this year. North Carolina trailed by 10 in 4th quarter to I-AA team last week, but rallied for shaky 21-17 win a week after they got waxed 33-10 at Miami.
    -- Florida won last 19 games vs Vanderbilt, winning 42-14/25-19 in last two visits here; Gators ended 3-game skid with OT win over Georgia in rivalry game last week. Vandy lost last three games by total of 113-21.

    -- Home side won four of last five Colorado-Kansas games; Buffs lost last two visits here, 30-14 (+14)/20-15 (+2)- they've lost last four games, are 0-3 on road, losing the three games by combined score of 121-17.
    -- Ball State lost last four games, allowing 37.5 ppg; they're -10 last four games in turnovers. Akron is 0-9, covering one of last four- they've been outscored 65-6 in first half of their last three games. Home side is 5-2 in last seven series games. If you bet on this game, call GA......please.
    -- BYU won last five games vs UNLV, winning last two played here by 42-35 (-23)/52-7 (-28) scores. Seven of eight BYU games stayed under total. Rebels lost their last four games by an average score of 46-13.
    -- Tulsa won four of last five games vs Rice, with average total of 72.0 in those games; Hurricane is 2-2 as favorite this year. Rice is 3-2 as a home underdog this year; Owls' last four games all went over the total.
    -- Home side won three of last four Temple-Kent games; Owls lost last visit here, 41-38. Temple is 7-2, winning last two games by total of 72-0. Kent is 3-2 in MAC, winning last two games while scoring 63 points.

    -- Utah State was outscored 66-10 in first half of last three games, losing by 18-38-14 points; they're 3-2 in last five games vs New Mexico State- this is first time USU is favored this year. NM State covered last three games, split last four SU, with both wins by two points.
    -- Navy (-13) got upset 34-31 by Duke last week (trailed 24-0 at half), just their second loss in last seven games. East Carolina scored 37.3 ppg in last four games; they're 2-0 as favorite this year. Six of last eight ECU games went over the total.
    -- Washington's star QB Locker is out for Oregon game; Huskies lost last six games vs Ducks by average score of 42-17. Oregon is scoring a stupid 54.9 ppg; could they have a letdown after last week's win at USC, with dicey trip to Berkeley on deck next week?
    -- ***************.com is America's favorite website.
    -- Southern Miss won its last five games vs Tulane by average score of 22-7, winning last three by average of 33-5. Eagles scored 41+ points in each of last four games, but they lost 50-49 to UAB last week. Tulane is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 1-1 at home (6-14-1 as HU since '05).
    -- Iowa State was an unthinkable +8 in turnovers in Lincoln LY, pulled 9-7 upset, its first win at Nebraska since '77. Cyclones are 5-4 despite three losses by 28+ points this year. Cornhuskers scored 155 points in three road games, winning by 56-21/48-13/51-41 scores.

    -- Texas lost last two times they played K-State, losing three of last four visits to Manhattan. Wildcats are 26-5 SU in last 31 November games at home. Longhorns lost four of last five games, allowing 28+ points in all four losses. Six of eight Texas games stayed under the total.
    -- Fresno State is 8-3 in last 11 games vs Louisiana Tech, with hosts 5-2 in last seven series games. Home team is 5-2 vs spread in WAC games if spread is 7 or less points. State is 2-1 on road, winning at Utah State and San Jose, losing 55-38 at Ole Miss.
    -- Gritty UAB already played three games decided by one point and two OT games (1-1); dogs covered four of their last five games vs Marshall. Marshall scored only 14 ppg in last four games; they're 1-4 as underdogs this year, with five of their six losses by 16+ points.
    -- Nevada won last five games vs Idaho by average score of 53-20; they won last two visits here, 49-14/45-7. Wolf Pack allowed 42 points last week in second half, after leading Utah State 35-0 at half. Vandals are 4-4 they scored 34+ points in two of their last three losses.
    -- Junior QB Mansion makes first college start for Cal, which won five in row over Washington State by average score of 40-16. Bears are 0-4 on road, giving up 36.3 ppg. Pac-10 home dogs of 22 or less are 1-4-1.

    -- Wyoming lost five of last six visits to New Mexico, with only win by 14-10 score; Cowboys are 1-7 vs I-A teams (beat Toledo 20-15). New Mexico is 0-8, 2-6 vs spread, with one loss by less than 10 points. This is another game where if you bet on it, call Gamblers Anonymous.
    -- Tennessee won last five games vs Memphis by average score of 46-20; Vols gave up 41-41-38 points in losing last three SEC games, but Tigers are awful, losing last four games by average score of 40-11. C-USA dogs are 14-11 vs spread out of conference, 7-3 at home.
    -- Home side won four of last five SMU-UTEP games; Mustangs lost last two visits here, 36-10 (+13), 24-21 (+12). Miners lost three in row after 5-1 start, scoring 15.3 ppg. C-USA home underdogs are 3-5.
    -- San Diego State won four of last five vs Colorado State (visitor is 4-1 in last five); Aztecs are bowl eligible, scoring 35 ppg in last three games. Rams covered five of last six games, but are 1-4 as road dog. Five of last six San Diego State games stayed under total.

    -- UL-Lafayette lost last four games, allowing 44.3 ppg; six of their eight games went over total. Ole Miss played Bama-Arkansas-Auburn in last three weeks, have to have letdown here. Sun Belt road underdogs are 7-8 against the spread in non-conference games.
    -- FAU beat Western Kentucky last two years, 29-23 (-14)/24-20 (-2.5); Owls lost four of last five games overall; five of their last six games went under total. Single digit Sun Belt home dogs are 1-3 vs spread.
    -- UL-Monroe won four of its last five vs FIU, winning 31-27 (+7)/35-0 (-1.5) in last two visits here. ULM (+16) upset Troy at home last week; they're 2-3 as road dog this year, losing by 24-14-49-28 on the road.
    -- Troy State won last five games vs North Texas, winning 45-17 (-24)/ 13-10 (+2) in last two visits here; they're 0-5 vs spread as favorites this year, with only one win by more than seven points. North Texas is 0-4 at home this year, losing by 1-1-5-24 points.

    Comment


    • #17
      NCAAF


      Saturday, November 6


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      What Bettors Need to Know
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      Arizona Wildcats at Stanford Cardinal (-9.5, 56)

      The Pac-10 takes center stage when No. 13 Arizona meets No. 12 Stanford at the Farm in Palo Alto Saturday night.

      Thorny issue
      Arizona knows its Rose Bowl fate resides in its own hands. Simply put: run the table and the Wildcats are in.

      They are the only current member of the Pac-10 or the Big Ten never to have appeared in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Stanford’s players were still in elementary school the last time the Cardinal smelled roses.

      The closest the desert rats came to playing for the roses was 1988 when they lost early on to UCLA, only to see the 10-2 Bruins roll and edge out the 12-1 Wildcats for conference honors.

      Then there was the Cal Collapse in 1998. Up 20-0 at halftime with the Rose Bowl on the line, Zona folded like a cheap lawn chair and lost 24-20 to the Bears on a fluky interception return for a touchdown.

      In all likelihood, Arizona probably won't run a complete sweep against Stanford, USC, Oregon and ASU. But at least, for now, the table has been set.

      Squirt size attack
      Speaking of running, water-bug-sized Keola Antolin will start at tailback in the most important game of their season.

      Finally healthy, Antolin has sparked the Wildcats' once-dormant running attack over the last month. In four games, he has 66 carries for 387 yards and six touchdowns and caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown.

      Antolin cracked the Wildcats' starting lineup against Washington State three weeks ago and has held on to the job, forcing senior Nicolas Grigsby into a supporting role.

      Antolin showed flashes of greatness during his first two years only to be derailed by injuries, including turf toe, a separated, shoulder, a hip-pointer and ankle sprains. Yet, Antolin says he feels fresh heading into Saturday's game against No. 12 Stanford.

      The 5-foot-8-inch, 186-pound junior has suffered just one injury all season.

      "Bruise on my shin," he told reporters. "I feel great. Knock on wood, man. You've just got to be patient. Things will come your way eventually."

      Magic touch
      When Sonny Dykes left his quarterbacks position to assume the head coaching duties at Louisiana Tech this year, Arizona head coach Mike Stoops didn’t have to wait long before finding a replacement in Frank Scelfo.

      The 29-year coaching veteran took the job and has worked wonders with quarterbacks Nick Foles (sidelined by a knee injury for the past few weeks) and Matt Scott. Arizona leads the conference and the nation in completion percentage, completing 74.1 percent of its throws through eight games. The Pac-10's second-best team in terms of completion percentage is Saturday's opponent Stanford, which completes 66.8 percent of its balls.

      "That's pretty ridiculous this far through the season," Stoops said of the completion percentage after the Washington game. "That's a credit to both of those players, that's a credit to our offensive staff and certainly coach Scelfo. He does a great job in preparation."

      Scelfo coached for 11 seasons at Tulane (1996-2006) and mentored four NFL quarterbacks – Patrick Ramsey, Shaun King, J.P. Losman and Lester Ricard. The 59 year old applied that coaching prowess to Arizona's quarterbacks, as he adjusted Foles' footwork and helped Scott develop a shorter release.

      "They were raw, but talented," Scelfo said of Arizona's quarterbacks when he first came to the program. "Skills, physical talents, they had those so I was excited to start working with them.”

      Players and coaches rave about the job Scelfo's done with the Wildcats' arms, but Scelfo gives all of the credit to the players.

      "That ain't me, that's the kids," Scelfo told the media. "That's those guys. They did it, not me."

      Measuring stick
      Despite the fact the both teams have only one loss each this season, they still have a lot to prove.

      The most talked about aspect of this matchup is Stanford’s high-powered offense against Arizona’s stingy defense.

      Looking at the schedule, though, neither Stanford’s offense nor the Arizona defense have been challenged in most of its contests.

      Among the Cardinal’s first six lined opponents only one ranks in the top half of the country in scoring defense. That one was Oregon, which shut Stanford out in the second half after the Cardinal jumped out to an 18-point first-half lead. Stanford piled up points against Wake Forest, Washington State and Washington, who all rank in the bottom 15 nationally in points allowed.

      This same phenomenon has influenced Arizona’s statistics. The Wildcats have faced lined four opponents ranked worse than 75th in scoring offense, allowing only 11 points per game to them.

      On the other hand, Arizona has faced three decent offenses in California, Oregon State and Iowa. The Wildcats held Cal to only nine points, but the Golden Bears have been abysmal on the road this season, losing all four games away from Memorial Stadium. The other two had relative success against Arizona’s defense, scoring at least 27 points in each game.

      Overall, Arizona has played five Pac-10 opponents, including the bottom four teams in the conference. The only winning conference team the Wildcats have faced is Oregon State, and the Beavers beat Arizona in Tucson. Thus, the Wildcats have ascended to the top 15 without playing Oregon, Stanford or USC.

      Meanwhile, Stanford has played only two teams with winning records, losing to Oregon and squeaking out a victory over USC at home.

      Stanford’s defense has been highly inconsistent. It’s had two road shutouts in Pac-10 play, but allowed 38.3 points per outing in a three-game stint against Oregon, USC and Washington State.

      The spotlight and pressure are relatively new phenomena for both programs. Arizona will need its best offensive effort to keep up with QB Andrew Luck and the potent Stanford offense.

      Charmed by The Farm
      Down on The Farm, Jim Harbaugh is a savior. He left 11-1 San Diego to come to 1-11 Stanford.

      Harbaugh has become a national icon and, love him or hate him, he has completely transformed the way his eccentricity is viewed by the American public.

      In three seasons, he took one of the worst teams in the nation, churned out eight wins and guided the Cardinal to a bowl game for the first time since 2001.

      Harbaugh’s job has been difficult. Taking a bottom feeder from irrelevance to the Top 10, while having to battle incredulous academic standards and general apathy, is no easy task.

      The student body has to be motivated with arbitrary “points” to come to conference games and alums would rather invest in the next new microchip than the offensive line.

      This season, at 7-1, Stanford now ranks among the nation’s elite and is a popular pick as the best one-loss team in the country.

      With Michigan (Harbaugh’s alma mater) sniffing about, the word around campus is it will likely take in the neighborhood of $15 million to keep him on the Farm.

      The Cardinal is Harbaugh’s baby. Don’t be surprised if he isn’t here for the long haul.

      From the archives
      • Harbaugh is 16-8 straight up and 14-9 against the spread at home with Stanford, but 14-2 and 11-4 the last three years.

      • Stanford is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in this series when playing off back-to-back wins, with all four losses as a favorite.

      • Stoops is 21-12 against the spread as a conference dog with the Wildcats, including 12-4 versus .800 or greater opponents.

      • The last three meetings in this series have been decided by a total of seven points.


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      Comment


      • #18
        NCAAF


        Saturday, November 6


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        Game of the day: Alabama at LSU
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        Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers (+6.5, 44)

        Both Alabama and Louisiana State know they have to be perfect from here on out to maintain their hopes of playing for the SEC title – and, for that matter, the national championship.

        One of them is likely to see those dreams slip away Saturday when the fifth-ranked Crimson Tide visits the No. 11 Tigers in a crucial SEC Western Division showdown.

        Tiger Bomb

        The Tigers (7-1, 4-1 SEC) are still stinging from seeing their title hopes take a hit. They had a bye week to recover from a 24-17 loss at Auburn on Oct. 23, a game in which they allowed a whopping 440 rushing yards - they had allowed only 585 rushing yards in the previous seven games combined.

        The run defense will be tested again Saturday, as the Tigers will have to face the formidable duo of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and electrifying sophomore Trent Richardson. Richardson leads the team with 606 rushing yards and has scored five touchdowns and Ingram is right behind him with 544 yards and eight touchdowns despite missing the first two games of the season after arthroscopic knee surgery.

        Richardson, who leads the SEC and ranks second in the nation with 181.8 all-purpose yards per game, also has three receiving touchdowns and a kickoff return for a score.

        Crimson Dynamo

        Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC) is hardly one-dimensional. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy ranks eighth in the nation in passing efficiency (163.35) and has thrown for 1,781 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has a big-time receiver in junior Julio Jones.

        Jones leads the team with 45 receptions for 669 yards and three touchdowns. He caught 12 passes for a school-record 221 yards in a 41-10 win against Tennessee on Oct. 23.

        That balanced attack will be put to the test against LSU, which hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in the same game yet this season.

        Stop signs

        The Tigers lead the SEC in total defense (277.6 yards per game) and passing defense (149.5 yards per game) and rank second in scoring defense (15.6 points per game). LSU ranks in the top 10 in the nation in all three categories.

        Alabama's defense had its share of troubles Oct. 9 in a 35-21 loss at South Carolina, but the Tide has turned that around the past two games, holding Mississippi and Tennessee to 10 points each in consecutive SEC victories.

        The Tide had its streak of 41 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher snapped against the Vols, as junior Tauren Poole rushed for 117 yards on 14 carries. They'll face a challenge in trying to start a new streak against LSU's Stevan Ridley, who ranks second in the SEC with 90.4 rushing yards per game and has three 100-yard games to his credit this season.

        The Tigers have struggled to find consistency under center, as Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee have split time at quarterback for the past four games. Jefferson, who has started each game, gives the Tigers more of a threat to run - his 281 rushing yards rank second behind Ridley - while Lee is a more accurate passer.

        Alabama leads the series 45-23-5, including a 25-8-2 record in Baton Rouge. The Tigers had won five straight before the Crimson Tide won the past two meetings, including a 24-15 home win last season.

        Trends

        - The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these programs.
        - Road team is 11-2-1 in the last 14 games between Alabama and LSU.
        - Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
        - Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these SEC rivals.


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        Comment


        • #19
          NCAAF


          Saturday, November 6


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          Tips and Trends
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          Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers [CBS | 3:30 PM ET]

          CRIMSON TIDE: (-6.5, O/U 44.5) Alabama is coming off a very productive bye week. The Crimson Tide saw multiple undefeated teams ranked ahead of them lose last week. If Alabama can win their remaining games against a difficult schedule, they are likely to play for the opportunity of defending their BCS title. Alabama is 7-1 SU and 4-1 SU in SEC play this season. Alabama is 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Tide are 1-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. Alabama has a well balanced offense, ranking in the top 40 both through the air and on the ground. QB Greg McElroy leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG this year, 24th best in the nation. McElroy has thrown for 1,781 YDS this season, including 11 TD's against 3 INT's. RB's Trent Richardson and Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram have combined for more than 1,100 YDS rushing and 13 TD's this season. Defensively, the Crimson Tide are simply brilliant. Alabama has the 2nd best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 12.5 PPG this year. The Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in November. The Crimson Tide are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Alabama is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

          Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
          Under is 14-6-1 last 21 conference games.

          Key Injuries - RB Eddie Lacy (undisclosed) is questionable.

          Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

          TIGERS: LSU is coming off their 1st loss of the season, a 17-24 SU loss at Auburn. Losing on the road to the undefeated Tigers is nothing to be ashamed of, and LSU knows they are still in the BCS conversation. LSU is 7-1 SU and 4-1 SU in SEC play this season. While they are 7-1 SU, the Tigers are only 3-5 ATS this season. Coach Miles is an impressive 14-1i following a SU loss. LSU has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 2 seasons to Alabama in hard fought defensive struggles. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 14 PTS to be scored on them at home this season. For the entire year the Tigers are only allowing 15.6 PPG, 10th best in the nation. While LSU has one of the very worst passing offenses in the nation, their rushing attack is quite solid. RB Stevan Ridley has rushed for 723 YDS and 6 TD's this season. The Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. LSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.

          Tigers are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a home underdog.
          Under is 11-1 last 12 home games.

          Key Injuries - DE Sam Montgomery (knee) is out.

          Projected Score: 13


          TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes [VERSUS | 3:30 PM ET]

          HORNED FROGS: (-5, O/U 51.5) TCU is ranked 3rd in the country thanks to a perfect 9-0 SU record. With a road win today, the Horned Frogs will be one step closer towards their aspiration of playing for the BCS championship. TCU is 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this year. Today will mark the 1st time this season that TCU will be playing consecutive road games in a regular week. Senior QB Andy Dalton has been one of the most efficient QB's in the country for the past few seasons, with this year being no different. Dalton has thrown for nearly 1,900 YDS this year, along with 16 TD's against 5 INT's. Dalton is the leader of an offense that is averaging 40 PPG this year, 9th best in the nation. Only 2 opponents have scored more than 10 PTS against TCU, including 5 current opponents to 7 PTS or fewer. For the season, the Horned Frogs are allowing a nation low 8.7 PPG. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. TCU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Horned Frogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Horned Frogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.

          Horned Frogs are 23-9-1 ATS last 33 conference games.
          Under is 7-0 last 7 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points.

          Key Injuries - NT Kelly Griffin (ankle) is out.

          Projected Score: 23

          UTES: Utah has their dream scenario, as they face a fellow undefeated team ranked in the Top 10 in the nation. Utah and TCU will make Mountain West Conference history this afternoon, as two teams from the MWC will meet while ranked in the Top 10. The winner of this game has a legitimate shot to play for the BCS National Championship. Utah is a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS this season, with their first ATS loss last week against the Air Force. The Utes lost 28-55 SU last year, so revenge is at the forefront of this game. The Utes have a very balanced offense, ranking in the top 35 both passing and rushing the football. RB's Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata have combined for nearly 1,000 YDS rushing, including 15 TD's. Utah is averaging 45.3 PPG this season, 3rd best in the nation. 4 times this season the Utes defense has held their opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. Overall, Utah is only allowing 14.1 PPG, 5th best in the country. The Utes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games overall. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

          Utes are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home underdog.
          Over is 4-1 last 5 games as an underdog.

          Key Injuries - LB Chad Manis (ankle) is probable.

          Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)


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