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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (10/26 - 10/30)

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  • #16
    NCAAF
    Write-Up



    Friday's game
    West Virginia won last six games vs UConn, covering five, with only one of the wins by less than 12+ points; they won/covered last three visits here, winning 35-13/37-11/31-19. UConn threw its starting QB off team last week, then got blanked 26-0 at Louisville; they've been outscored in second half of last two games, 23-0. Mountaineers are 1-1 on road, with an OT win at Marshall and 20-14 loss at LSU- they lost to Syracuse at home last week, and have only 3 second half points in last two games. Three of last four UConn games went over the total.

    Saturday's games
    Highlighted games

    Home teams won eight of last nine Michigan State-Iowa games; dogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five. State lost last four visits to Iowa by 7-22-8-5 points (underdogs 4-0 vs spread). Hawkeyes are +11 in turnovers over last six games- they allowed 28-31 points in last two games. Spartans fell behind in last two games, but outscored foes 51-10 in second half to win both-- undefeated team getting a TD? Interesting.

    Home team lost last four Kentucky-Miss State games; Wildcats are 3-1 in last four visits here, winning 14-13/34-31 in last two visits. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games. Kentucky lost four of last five games, giving up 39.8 ppg; they're 0-2 as road dog this year. Last seven Kentucky games went over the total. Bulldogs won last five games after barely getting by UAB last week. SEC home favorites are 12-6.

    Auburn won eight of last ten games vs Ole Miss, with dogs covering 3 of last 4 meetings; Tigers are 5-1 in last six visits here, but only one of their five wins there was by more than eight points. Auburn has 1,071 yards on ground in last three games; they're 2-0 on road, beating Miss State and Kentucky, both by a FG. Over is 4-1 in last five Auburn games, 3-1 in last four Ole Miss tilts. All three Ole Miss SEC losses are by 13+ pts.

    Baylor became bowl eligible last week; will go bowling for first time in 16 years, but they've lost to Texas 12 straight times, with last 11 all by 21+ points. Last time Longhorns were single digit series favorite, Bears did upset them. Baylor lost last six visits here (4-2 vs spread); favorites are 6-1 vs spread in their '10 games, with Bears 0-2 as underdog. Baylor's last four games all went over the total.

    Georgia won its last three games, Florida lost its last three, but Gators are 10-2 in last 12 series games and they had last week off. Average total in last three renewals of this neutral field rivalry is 63.0. Georgia was last a series favorite in 2004; over last 13 years, they're 1-2 as series favorite. Dawgs scored 41-43-44 points in last three games, hitting their stride as soon as star WR Green became eligible. Florida has been outgained on the ground in last three games by disturbing 544-323 margin.

    East Carolina won last four games vs Central Florida; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Three of last four series totals were 33 or less. Pirates won last two visits here, 13-10/23-10. UCF won three in a row, outscoring foes 118-35; they outscored last five opponents 79-10 in first half. Five of seven ECU games went over the total. Home faves are 10-5-1 in Conference USA games this season.

    Oklahoma State WR Blackmon is suspended for this game after his DUI arrest, second year in row Gundy had to suspend a star WR; home team won five of last six series games, with Cowboys losing last three visits to Little Apple, 31-27/44-9/52-20. OSU scored 88 points in winning road games at ULL, Texas Tech. Big 12 home underdogs are 2-8 vs spread. Last three K-State games went over the total.

    Favorites covered last four Missouri-Nebraska games; last 11 games in series were all decided by 11+ points, with Mizzou 1-5 in last six visits here. Tigers are 2-0 as underdog this year; they outscored last four foes 80-17 in first half. Cornhuskers allowed 601 rushing yards in last couple games; they've scored 48+ points in four of six games against I-A teams. Mizzou is only allowing teams to run ball for 71.8 yards/game.

    Texas A&M lost seven of last nine games vs Texas Tech, with dogs 5-2 vs spread in last seven; Tech won three of last four trips here, with dogs 4-2 vs spread in their six visits. Red Raiders are on road for fourth time in last five weeks; they're -6 in turnovers last four games. Aggies ended a 3-game skid last week, winning big at Kansas; they're 2-2 as favorite this year. Big 12 home favorites are 3-5-1 against the spread.

    Oregon State is 9-2 in last 11 games vs California, winning last three by 17-13-3 points; favorites are 4-0 vs spread in Bears' last four visits here, with Cal 2-4 in last six (all four losses by 9+ points). Bears are 0-3 away from home, 3-0 at home, losing road games at Nevada (52-31), Arizona (10-9) and USC (48-14). Beavers' last three games were all decided by 3 or less points; they had last week off after OT loss at Washington.

    Underdogs are 10-1 vs spread in last 11 Air Force-Utah games; Utes are 4-1 in last five visits here, but dogs are 4-1 vs spread in those games. Air Force lost last two games, getting waxed 38-7 by TCU last week; their other two losses were by total of five points. Six of Utah's last seven wins in series were by 7 or less points- they beat Falcons in OT in LY's meeting. MWC home teams are 11-5 vs spread in conference games.

    Michigan won four of last five visits to Penn State, with favorites 3-0 vs spread in last three, but Wolverines lost the last two years to Penn State, 35-10/46-17, after winning previous nine series games. Michigan lost last two games after 5-0 start; they've allowed 35-34-38 points in last three games, with three of their last four games going over total. Penn State got outscored 34-12 in second half of their last three games- they're 0-2 as a dog this year. Big 11 home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread.

    Oregon is 7-0, scoring 49.3 ppg in last four games; they're 3-0 on road, winning 48-13 at Tennessee (-11), 42-31 at Arizona State (-11), 43-23 at Washington State (-36). Ducks are 6-4 in its last ten games vs USC, with favorites covering seven of last nine series games. Oregon lost last couple visits here, 44-10/35-10. 5-2 Trojans scored 31+ points six times in their seven games, losing 32-31 to Washington (-10), 37-35 at Stanford (+9.5). Last four Oregon games went over the total.

    Rest of the Card
    -- Cincinnati won last five games vs Syracuse (4-1 vs spread); Orange lost last three visits here, 30-10/17-3/12-10. Average total in last seven series games is 37.7. Orange has upset USF, West Virginia this year.
    -- Southern Miss won nine of last 10 games vs UAB, winning last four here by average score of 31-14. Over is 3-1-1 in Blazers' last five games. Average total in last five series games is 57.
    -- Purdue won last five games vs Illinois, winning last two games here by 42-31/38-30 scores; dogs covered five of last seven in series. Illini scored three TDs on defense in its last three games.
    -- Miami is 4-2 in last six games vs Virginia; dogs covered five of last six in series. Canes are 2-1 in last three visits here, winning by 7-10 points. Virginia is 0-3 vs spread in ACC games, losing by 20-12-34 points.
    -- Favorite covered four of last five Pitt-Louisville games, with favorites covering last two played here. Cardinals are +9 in turnovers in last four games. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in Louisville's 2010 games.

    -- Northwestern won five of last six games vs Indiana, with four of six decided by 4 or less points; dogs covered last four series games. Indiana lost three of its last four games, allowing average of 39.3 ppg.
    -- Clemson is 0-2 on road, losing at Auburn, North Carolina. BC lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 1-3 as a dog this season, 0-2 at home, with losses by 19 (Va Tech), 18 (Notre Dame), 3 (Maryland).
    -- Wake Forest won three of last four vs Maryland, after losing seven in row before that. Dogs covered four of last five in series. Terps returned punt for TD in each of their home games, both wins (FAU/Duke).
    -- Northern Illinois won its last five games, all by 11+ points; they're 4-0 as a favorite this year, and 5-1 as fave in this series. NIU's last four wins in this series all came by 21+ points.
    -- Favorites are 3-0-1 vs spread in last four Tennessee-So Carolina tilts; Vols are 11-2 in series, with losses by 1-21 points, but they've lost five of last six games, losing last two games 41-14 and 41-10.

    -- Vanderbilt actually won its last visit here, 28-24 after losing 21-19 at home in previous meeting (Vandy covered both). Arkansas gave up total of 59 second half points in last two games, allowing 515 rushing yards.
    -- Iowa State upset Texas last week after giving up 120 points in losing previous two games; average total in last four series games is 62. Kansas lost its last three games by an average score of 53-8.
    -- Akron is 0-8; they're 2-2 as road dog, but are -8 in turnovers last three games; they lost last three games vs Temple by 56-17/27-6/24-20 scores. Three of last four Akron games went over the total.
    -- Ball State won last three games vs Kent State, 41-20/30-6/34-17; dogs covered three of last four series games. Kent split last four games (led all four at half). Last four Ball State games went over the total.
    -- San Diego State lost last three visits to Wyoming; average total in last five series games, 51.8. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six games of series. Dogs covered four of Aztecs' last five games overall.

    -- Tough week at Notre Dame, where manager died while filming practice in a high tower in horrific winds; hard to know what effect that has here. Three of four Irish wins this season are by 11+ points.
    -- Home faves covered last three UTEP-Marshall games; Herd lost three games in row, allowing 37.7 ppg. Marshall was outscored 62-17 in first half of last three games; their only win this year was 24-23 over Ohio.
    -- SMU lost six of last eight games vs Tulane, with last four all decided by 7 or less points (dogs covered the last three). Four of last five Tulane games went over total, with average total in last three, 66.0.
    -- Favorites covered last three Bowling Green-Central Michigan games. Falcons lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), getting outscored 69-15 in 1st half of last three. Chippewas also lost their last five games.
    -- Stanford won four of last five games vs Washington; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their last four trips to Seattle, with Cardinal winning the last two by 7-17 points. Huskies allowed 37.8 ppg in last five games.

    -- Arizona won last three games vs UCLA by 14-21-7 points; favorites are 5-0 vs spread in Wildcats' last five visits here. Arizona won both its road games this year, 41-2 at Toledo (-15), 24-7 at Washington St (-23).
    -- Colorado lost QB Hansen last week, turns to backup QB Hawkins to save his dad's job; Buffs just lost winnable home games by 5-3 points. Oklahoma won five of last six series games, winning last two played here 24-3/27-11. Buffs are 0-2 as road dog, losing 52-7/26-0.
    -- Miami OH lost 42-17/37-17 in last two games vs Buffalo, after taking previous nine series games. Bulls are 1-5 vs I-A teams, were outscored in secind half of last two games, 38-0. Last three Miami tilts stayed under.
    -- Navy won four of last five games vs Duke, which lost last two visits here, 46-43/27-12; Blue Devils are -13 in turnovers last four games, 1-1-1 as road dog this year, losing on foreign soil by 6-5-37 points. Only one of five Navy wins this year was by more than 14 points.
    -- Toledo is 9-1 in last 10 games vs Eastern Michigan, winning last three by 26-24-24 points; favorites are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series tilts. Five of last six EMU games went over the total.

    -- Nevada won last five games vs Utah State, winning 44-17/42-0 in last two played here; Wolf Pack covered last two times they spotted Aggies 20+ points (0-6 if they gave them less than 20). Nevada failed to cover its last three games as a favorite.
    -- San Jose State won last five games vs New Mexico State, covering last five trips here (won 31-14/31-21 in last two). Aggies are 0-2 as a home dog, losing 41-21 to San Diego State, 59-0 to Boise State. Last four New Mexico State games stayed under total.
    -- Underdog covered last 10 New Mexico-Colorado State games, winning seven of 10 SU; Lobos are 2-3 in last five visits to Fort Collins, losing by 14-8-3 points. Lobos are 0-3 on road in '10, losing by average of 44-8.
    -- Arizona State won last six games vs Washington State, with dogs 4-0 vs spread in last four; Sun Devils are 1-4 vs I-A teams this year- they're -10 in turnovers last four games. Wazzu covered its last four games.

    -- Memphis was outscored 79-13 in first half of last three games, losing last two home games by combined 89-26. Tigers allowed 773 yards on ground in last three games. Houston is 0-2 as road favorite, is using its 3rd-string QB. Underdogs are 3-1 in Houston's last four visits here.
    -- Ohio State won last seven games vs Minnesota, covering five; they've won last five visits here (4-1 vs spread). Gophers are 0-4 at home, but none of the losses were by more than 12 points (2-1 as home dog).
    -- TCU won last six games vs UNLV, covering five; Frogs won last three visits here, 44-14/25-10/41-18. Rebels were outscored 97-24 in first half of last three games; they allowed 44-49-43 points in last three games.
    -- Hawai'i won five of last six games vs Idaho; favorites covered four of last five in series. Vandals lost last three visits here, 49-17/68-10/52-21. Hawai'i won its last five games, picking off 12 enemy passes.

    -- UL-Lafayette allowed 46.3 ppg in its last three games; five of their last seven games went over total. Sun Belt road underdogs are 7-9 vs spread in non-conference games. ULL lost 31-23 here three years ago.
    -- North Texas won last three games vs Western Kentucky by 19-1-11 points, with average total of 87 in those games. WKU snapped 25-game losing streak last week. UNT is 1-3-1 as an underdog this year.
    -- Home side won last six Troy-ULMonroe games; Trojans lost last two visits here, 31-30/27-3. ULM is just 6-32 on 3rd down last two games, and was outscored 45-10 in first half of those games.
    -- Florida Int'l lost last four games vs Florida Atlantic; favorites are 4-1 vs spread in last five, with average total of 78.0 in last three. FAU lost its last five games, with three of the losses by 13+ points.

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    • #17
      NCAAF


      Saturday, October 30


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      Tips and Trends
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      Missouri Tigers at Nebraska Cornhuskers [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

      TIGERS: Missouri is coming off one of their biggest wins in school history, a 36-27 SU win over Oklahoma. The Tigers find themselves ranked 6th in the country, thanks to a 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS season record. Today will mark only the 2nd true road game of the season for the Tigers. Revenge is on the mind of Missouri as well today, as they lost 12-27 SU last year at home to Nebraska. The Tigers defense is what is leading this team, as they are only allowing 13.1 PPG this season, 5th best in the nation. Only 2 opponents have scored more than 13 PTS against the Tigers this season. QB Blaine Gabbert directs a passing game that is averaging 286 YPG, 16th best in the nation. Gabbert is completing better than 67% of his passes, as well as 11 TD's against 3 turnovers. Missouri plays 3 of their 5 final games on the road, so their path to an unbeaten season is quite difficult. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Missouri is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.

      Tigers are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.
      Under is 10-3 last 13 games against a team with a winning record.

      Key Injuries - LB Luke Lambert (knee) is questionable.

      Projected Score: 20

      CORNHUSKERS: (-7.5, O/U 55) Nebraska bounced back from their home loss to Texas by scoring 51 points in a road win at Oklahoma St last week. The Cornhuskers are trying to improve on their #14th national ranking. Beating unbeaten Missouri will likely put Nebraska back in the top 10 national polls. Nebraska is 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS overall this season. To avoid losing consecutive home games SU, Nebraska will have to produce on offense like they did in their last game. The Cornhuskers are averaging 290 YPG rushing this year, 5th best in the nation. QB Taylor Martinez will have to lead his team to victory, both through the air and the ground. Even after allowing 41 points last week, Nebraska is still only allowing 17.9 PPG, 17th in the nation. Today's contest against Missouri is likely to be the last ranked opponent the Cornhuskers play during the regular season. The Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Cornhuskers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Nebraska is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points.

      Cornhuskers are 11-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
      Under is 5-0 last 5 neutral site games.

      Key Injuries - WR Khiry Cooper (illness) is questionable.

      Projected Score: 27 (UNDER-Total of the Day)



      Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans [ABC | 8:00 PM ET]

      DUCKS: (-7, O/U 70.5) Oregon can't help but be a little nervous, as the top ranked team has lost now for the 3rd consecutive week. Playing on the road has been the Achilles heel for these top ranked teams, exactly the situation facing the Ducks tonight. Not only is Oregon a perfect 7-0 SU, they've won every game by double digits. The Ducks are 5-2 ATS this season, with tonight's contest marking only the 2nd time this year they are a single digit favorite. Oregon is averaging a nation best 55.1 PPG this season, thanks to the exploits of QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. Thomas is a duel threat QB that has thrown for more than 15 TD's this year, including 19 total TD's. James is becoming a Heisman candidate this year, thanks to leading the nation in rushing at 971 YDS, including 11 TD's. As great as their offense is, their defense isn't too shabby in their own right. Oregon is holding opponents to 15.9 PPG this season, 12th best in the nation. The Ducks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played in October. Oregon is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Ducks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

      Ducks are 9-2 ATS last 11 games following a bye week.
      Over is 5-0 last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.

      Key Injuries - RB LaMichael James (leg) is probable.

      Projected Score: 35

      TROJANS: USC is back in familiar territory, as they are back in the national polls at #24. USC is coming off their bye week, which has enabled this team to get even more accustomed to the unique Oregon offense. The Trojans aren't going to be intimidated playing #1 ranked Oregon, since they face them every year in conference play. In fact, USC is treating this game like their very own bowl game, since they are ineligible from the postseason. USC is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS overall this season. The Trojans will be the listed underdog for the 2nd time this season. They won ATS wise in their other game as the listed underdog this year at Stanford. QB Matt Barkley is having an outstanding season, as he's thrown for nearly 1,900 YDS and 20 TD's this season. Barkley leads a balanced offense that is averaging 37.4 PPG, 14th in the nation. Defensively, 3 of the Trojans 7 opponents have scored at least 30 PTS this year. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. USC is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Trojans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a bye week. USC is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games played in October. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. USC is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.

      Trojans are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points.
      Over is 10-1 last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record.

      Key Injuries - RB Dillon Baxter (toe) is probable.

      Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)


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      • #18
        NCAAF


        Saturday, October 30


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        What Bettors Need to Know
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        Oregon Ducks at Southern Cal Trojans (+6.5, 71)

        Oregon, the new No. 1 ranked team in the country, faces probation-laden USC (5-2, 2-2) at the Coliseum in Los Angeles Saturday evening in a crucial Pac-10 showdown on ABC. Let’s take a look.

        SOUND BITES
        USC coach Lane Kiffin took offense at Oregon coach Chip Kelly's recounting of how many five-star recruits Kiffin has on his team.

        "USC is the most talented team in our league, by far," Kelly said. "They've got more four and five-star recruits than anybody. It's going to be a challenge."

        Kiffin’s response: "I really wish that I had good enough players, or we were good enough coaches, that we could spend enough time counting how many four- and five-star players we have on each other's rosters. I don't have time for that, unfortunately."

        Then, USC defensive lineman Jurrell Casey sounded off to ESPNLosAngeles.com, saying the Ducks "have a good running back and a good quarterback. Other than that, they're really not that good."

        Hmm…

        When asked about the Ducks’ blazing team speed, Southern Cal receiver Ronald Johnson told the Los Angeles Times the Trojans have a lot fast guys, too.

        "We have speed also and we're going to utilize it and show this [Oregon] defense what they haven't been seeing this whole season," Johnson said.

        Do you sense the Trojans are getting sick of hearing about how fast Oregon is, how unstoppable the Ducks are, and how much Oregon coach Chip Kelly is being lauded in the media?

        EARLY BOWL GAME?
        USC QB Matt Barkley recognizes it and so do his teammates.

        With the Trojans banned from the postseason by the NCAA this season, this becomes Southern Cal’s ‘bowl game’.

        “This could be, in a sense, our bowl game with the No. 1 team coming into our house on Halloween under the lights.”

        Barkley also realizes his team is just three points from being 7-0 this campaign.

        “The losses stink. I don’t want to use the word ‘comforting,’ but knowing that we were that close to being undefeated and being a great team, it didn’t drag us down. I think that’s why we bounced back with a great game against Cal,” said Barkley.

        ONE THAT GOT AWAY
        You would think USC might have reserved a scholarship for linebacker Casey Matthews strictly based on his genes.

        His dad, Clay, and his uncle, Bruce, both were All-Americans for the Trojans a generation ago before embarking on long NFL careers. His brother, Kyle, lettered at safety for the 2003 national championship team and his other brother, Clay, worked his way up from walk-on to starter. Now, he’s one of the most dominant pass rushers in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers.

        As Oregon LB Casey Matthews notes, he comes from a long line of late-blooming Matthewses.

        “If you had asked me four years ago if I would have accepted an offer from USC, I would have jumped at it,” Matthews said. “But I’m really glad the way things worked out.”

        Matthews is third in tackles, tied for third in sacks, second in interceptions and leads the defense with three fumble recoveries.

        ESPN college football analyst Robert Smith called the Oregon defense a “fraud,” and predicted it eventually would be exposed this season.

        The Ducks are No. 30 in the NCAA in total defense, and they lead the nation in turnovers with 25.

        They can thank Matthews for being a main cog in the mix.

        IN DEFENSE OF
        When Lane Kiffin was hired as the Trojans’ new coach and brought along his dad, the highly respected Monte Kiffin, and fiery defensive line coach Ed Orgeron, the belief was that a young but talented defense would regain its spark.

        But things have not gone as planned. Not by any measure. USC’s defense has been a porous, poor-tackling and undisciplined group.

        It ranks 87th in the nation in total defense (402.6 yards per game) and 60th in scoring defense (24.3 ppg). The young secondary has been ripped apart, ranking 89th in the nation in pass-efficiency defense.

        However, there is some good news for the Trojans' defense as it for Oregon.

        The Southern Cal defense is coming off its best performance: A dominant effort in a 48-14 win over California two weeks ago in which it held the Bears, who trailed 42-0 at the half, to a season low 245 yards and 10 first downs.

        And the bye week has helped the Trojans heal up. DE Wes Horton will return from a back injury that knocked him out of the past three games, and Linemates Nick Perry Armond Armstead got time to rest various bumps and bruises. Linebacker Malcolm Smith is still nursing a knee injury but he is expected to play.

        But rest wasn't what the Trojans focused on during the bye week. In fact, there was extra running, live tackling - something Kiffin has avoided until now due to injury worries for a team that lacks depth - and fast-paced practices that attempted to match the pace with which Oregon plays.

        "We worked harder during the bye week," cornerback Shareece Wright said. "We actually didn't take a break."

        The question is can they slow Oregon? The younger Kiffin, once known for bluster, was almost worshipful describing the Ducks' offense.

        "They are so explosive," Kiffin said. "The style they play is like something we haven't seen. Or probably anybody's ever seen."

        GRID BITS
        Though the Ducks spooked USC on Halloween night in Eugene last fall as 3-point home dogs, USC's stadium is known for being a tough opposing venue.

        "Nobody wins in the Coliseum," Ducks’ sophomore quarterback Darron Thomas said. "That's one of the big things about it. It's going be a big test."

        The last time Oregon won at USC was Oct. 14, 2000 behind QB Joey Harrington.

        • The men of Troy are 51-4 straight up at home since 2001.

        • USC is 23-5 straight all-time home versus Oregon by an average score 29-11.

        • Southern Cal is 10-1 ATS as a home dog of three or more points.

        • The Trojans are 2-6 against the spread both as a dog and with revenge versus an undefeated opponent.

        • Oregon is 35-20 straight up as a visitor since 2000, including 30-2 straight up and 24-8 against the spread in games in which it scores 28 or more points.


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        • #19
          NCAAF


          Saturday, October 30


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          Game of the day: Michigan State at Iowa
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          Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (-6.5, 50.5)

          No. 5 Michigan State faces its biggest remaining threat to an undefeated regular season when it visits No. 19 Iowa in a Big Ten Conference matchup Saturday.

          Odds

          Oddsmakers set the Hawkeyes as 6.5-point home favorites early this week, and that number has remained steady heading into Saturday. The total has slightly moved from its opening post of 50 to 50.5 as of Friday afternoon.

          Iowa has covered in four straight meetings with MSU and is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings going back to 2000. The over/under count in that span is 4-4 with last season’s game, an 15-13 win for the Hawkeyes, playing under the 42-point total.

          The green mile

          The Spartans (8-0, 4-0 Big Ten), who rose to No. 5 in the BCS rankings with their comeback 35-27 win at Northwestern, close with an easy schedule following the Hawkeyes: Minnesota and Purdue at home, and a visit to struggling Penn State. They do not have to play Ohio State this year.

          Michigan State hasn’t exactly been dominant. It trailed 17-0 to Northwestern and earlier beat Notre Dame on a fake field goal in overtime.

          But the Spartans remain unblemished and as a result have earned the highest BCS ranking in school history.

          Making his Mark

          Coach Mark Dantonio, who suffered a heart attack following the win over Notre Dame, returned to the sidelines last week at Northwestern. He called a fake punt in the fourth quarter that worked to perfection, helping his team cut the deficit to three points.

          Quarterback Kirk Cousins played brilliantly. He threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The junior engineered an 88-yard, game-winning touchdown drive and capped it with a 9-yard strike to B.J. Cunningham with two minutes left.

          The defense registered eight sacks, the most since Dantonio took over in 2007. Johnathan Strayhorn and Tyler Hoover had two each and Jerel Worthy added 1.5.

          Bad taste

          While the Spartans are flying high, the Hawkeyes (5-2, 2-1) are trying to erase the memory of last Saturday’s 31-30 home loss to Wisconsin. Iowa was victimized by a Badgers fake punt and by its own clock mismanagement.

          The Hawkeyes are putting up 413 yards of offense per game, with quarterback Ricky Stanzi ranking second nationally in pass efficiency. He’s thrown for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns against two interceptions. Adam Robinson has run for 737 yards and nine scores.

          Keeping an eye out

          Iowa also brings a stingy rush defense that ranks eighth nationally, giving up 92.1 yards per game. However, the Hawkeyes have given up five rushing touchdowns in their last two games.

          Both teams excel at creating turnovers and minimizing their own. Both are plus-9 in turnover margin.

          Iowa still harbors hopes of winning the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are favored at home and they can get their season back on track with a win Saturday.

          Iowa leads the all-time series 21-18-2, including a 15-13 thriller last year when Stanzi hit Marvin McNutt for a 7-yard touchdown as time expired. The Hawkeyes have won eight of the last 12 meetings.

          Weather

          The forecast is calling for partially cloudy skies with game-time temperatures in the low 60s. There will be a 12-mph wind blowing WSW across the field.


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