NFL Best Bets + Trends & Notes 10/24-10/25 !

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McCoy to make 2nd start at New Orleans

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CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-5)
at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New Orleans -13, Total: 43

With QBs Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace both suffering from ankle injuries, Colt McCoy will make his second straight start for Cleveland. Unfortunately for McCoy, he will be tasked with beating the defending Super Bowl champions on their home turf without the services two key receivers. Both Josh Cribbs (13 rec., 175 yds, 1 TD) and Mohamed Massaquoi (21-115-1) suffered concussions in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh and are unlikely to play on Sunday. The Saints are expected to be without RB Pierre Thomas for a fourth straight game due to his high ankle sprain.

******* take:
McCoy’s first two starts have been daunting -- at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans. McCoy exceeded expectations in his debut with a 23-of-33, 281-yard, 1-TD, 2-INT performance in the 28-10 loss to the Steelers. The Browns, which rank second-to-last in the NFL in scoring (14.7 PPG), will now look to starting WRs Brian Robiskie and Chansi Stuckey to get open for McCoy. TE Benjamin Watson leads the team in targets (44), catches (29), receiving yards (318) and touchdowns (two). RB Peyton Hillis was bothered by a quad injury last week, but was still able to gain 90 yards (41 rushing, 49 receiving) against Pittsburgh and will continue to be the focal point of the offense.

McCoy could have success against a Saints secondary that has just four interceptions this year. This is a stark contrast to last season when the Saints ranked third in the NFL with 26 picks. All-Pro safety Darren Sharper, who had nine of the 26 INT last year, could make his season debut Sunday after missing the first six games with a knee injury. With Thomas out, rookie Chris Ivory (158 rushing yards at Tampa Bay last week) will continue to get the bulk of the carries. His backups are Ladell Betts (3.8 YPC) and Julius Jones (3.6 YPC) who was limited in Wednesday’s practice due to a shoulder injury.

These teams have met just once in the past eight years, a 19-14 Saints win in 2006. This highly-rated FoxSheets trends gives the edge to New Orleans on Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.The average score was NEW ORLEANS 33.2, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under:

CLEVELAND is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992.The average score was CLEVELAND 13.1, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 4*).

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Vince Young expected to start vs. Eagles

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-2)
at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher says that QB Vince Young will likely play on Sunday despite knee and ankle sprains suffered in Monday’s win at Jacksonville. The injuries are said to be mild, but Young did not practice on Wednesday. The Eagles also have quarterback news as Michael Vick (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, making Kevin Kolb the starter again. Kolb will likely be without his top WR De’Sean Jackson who is doubtful after suffering a concussion last week.

******* take:
Even if Young (98.8 passer rating) has a setback this week and doesn’t start Sunday, the Titans don’t lose much with their backup Kerry Collins (91.4 passer rating), who was 11-of-16 for 110 yards and a touchdown in Monday’s win after replacing Young. The game plan to stopping the Titans starts and stops with RB Chris Johnson, who has three 100-yard rushing performances and five touchdowns in his past four games. Despite being limited in practice last week with a thigh injury, Johnson carried the ball 26 times for 111 yards and two scores against the Jaguars.

Kolb has played very well since reclaiming his starting position following Vick’s injury. In the past three games, Kolb has thrown for 780 yards, 5 TD and just 2 INT. Jackson scored two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) before exiting from Philly’s 31-17 win against Atlanta. Jeremy Maclin stepped in nicely for his injured teammate, finishing the game with seven catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns.

These teams have only met three times since the Titans moved out of Houston. Tennessee has won all three games including a 31-13 drubbing at Philly in the last meeting in 2006. Despite this historical data, the FoxSheets shows this recent trend that makes Tennessee the play.

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (89-43 since 1983.) (67.4%, +41.7 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Gates expects to play Sunday vs. Patriots

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-1)
at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -3, Total: 47

Antonio Gates says he will play through the pain of his toe injury when San Diego hosts New England on Sunday. Gates has started 85 straight games and he knows how critical this contest is with the Chargers sitting at 2-4.

******* take:
Despite its poor record, San Diego leads the NFL in both total offense (433 YPG) and total defense (255 YPG). Gates has been excellent this season with 31 receptions for 490 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Patriots rank 29th in the NFL in passing defense, but their offense is the reason they are winning games. They lead the NFL with 30.8 PPG and are 10th in total yardage (354 YPG). Tom Brady is having another quality season with a 67.5% completion rate, 10 touchdowns and four picks.

The Pats were hammered 30-10 in their last trip to San Diego, when Matt Cassel was under center. Brady, though, has beaten the Chargers three straight times. But this FoxSheets trend shows why San Diego will prevail on Sunday.

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG). (32-9 since 1983.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets lean towards the Under on Sunday.

Bill Belichick is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.8, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Ed Reed to make season debut Sunday vs. Bills


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BUFFALO BILLS (0-5)
at BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -13 Total: 40

The Ravens have plenty of injury news, most of it good, when they host Buffalo on Sunday. All-Pro safety Ed Reed (hip) appears ready to make his season debut and three key offensive players also appear ready to go for Sunday -- RB Ray Rice (ankle), WR Derrick Mason (ankle) and TE Todd Heap (neck). The one bit of bad news is that RT Jared Gaither was placed on I.R. with back problems. For Buffalo, TE Shawn Nelson (groin) will return to the lineup, but the team’s best cornerback, Terrence McGee, is still questionable because of a knee injury.

******* take:
The return of Reed should be a huge boost to a depleted Ravens secondary that has just three interceptions this year. Not only is Reed one of the team leaders, he is also the biggest playmaker on the defensive side of the ball with 46 career interceptions and eight career defensive touchdowns. Rice has looked fully healthy over the past two weeks with 221 rushing yards and two scores. He also has 12 catches for 64 yards in these two games. Mason (24 rec, 309 yds) and Heap (21 rec, 259 yds) rank second and third on the team in receiving and are reliable targets for QB Joe Flacco. Gaither is a great tackle but Marshal Yanda has filled in nicely as his replacement this year.

The Bills’ pass defense has just one interception this year and the team as a whole is surrendering a league-high 32.2 PPG. McGee’s absence also hurts Buffalo’s run defense that ranks last in the NFL with a staggering 182 YPG allowed on the ground. Nelson can only help a Bills offense that has been atrocious this year with the third-fewest yards (251 YPG) in the NFL and a meager 17.4 PPG.

There’s little doubt that Baltimore should win this handily straight up, but the Bills are 6-4 ATS in road games over the past two seasons, and they’re coming off a bye. Baltimore, meanwhile, is going into a bye, and underdogs have gone 5-0 ATS in the Ravens’ last five pre-bye week games. This FoxSheets trend shows that Buffalo should at least cover on Sunday.

Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the Over:

Play Over - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

The top story in the NFL centers around concussions with debates on the egregious fines levied on the defensive players who are essentially doing what they’ve been taught to do. The league’s stance on protecting players with head injuries was intensified last season and has carried over to this year with more care and caution for player‘s well-being than ever before.
The league’s strict concussion testing procedures now make it possible to have prominent players out weekly, when in seasons past they might have played through it. The usual candidates to get their bells rung are the star offensive players, which places a burden in making sound betting lines.

The Jaguars will likely be without quarterback David Garrard at Kansas City this week taking a line that had the Chiefs as 4 ½-point favorites to being closer to -8 when the line re-opens after all information is accumulated. What makes it tough for the Jaguars is that back-up Trent Edwards has a thumb injury that might make him unavailable which would leave them with third stringer Todd Bouman. The Chiefs were a good play this week even with Garrard playing. After watching their performance Monday night against the Titans with Edwards throwing, the Chiefs could still be a good play laying up to -9 ½.

DeSean Jackson is 'out' for the Eagles at Tennessee. While Jackson is only a wide-receiver, and not thought of in regards as high as a quarterback, his value to the Eagles offense is worth a half-point to a full point. Jackson makes big plays and is used everywhere on the field. Jason Avant is good, but he can’t do what Jackson does and it surely doesn’t comfort Kevin Kolb who is still trying to prove himself to be the best suited quarterback for the team. The Titans opened at -3 (even) and the line hasn’t moved. I do feel the loss of Jackson will be felt in the Eagles offense and side with the Titans in part because of it.

Over in Oakland they have some injury issues at quarterback, but they have just good old fashioned knee and shoulder problems and not the trendy concussions. Denver opened as 6 ½-point home favorites and it’s climbed to -8 with the possibility that Kyle Boller could be the Raiders starter. Jason Campbell is listed as ‘questionable’ while Bruce Gradkowski is ‘doubtful.’ Regardless who is the quarterback, the Raiders should still score on Denver in what should be a very entertaining game with lots of big plays. The thin air of Denver always gets the best effort out of the Raiders.

San Diego has almost their entire receiving corps banged up. Malcolm Floyd is ‘doubtful’ while tight end Antonio Gates is expected to play. The Chargers opened -3 (even) and are down to -2 ½ against New England. The game was already tough to handicap just because the Chargers have been so Jekyll and Hyde home and away. At home, they look like the best team in football. Away, they resemble one of the worst. Factoring in Floyd’s absence and Gates bad foot with a team that has to throw in order to be successful kind of makes the Patriots look like a slight lean.

Bettors have a dilemma with New Orleans this week. Is what we saw out of the Saints last week at Tampa Bay the real Saints we will see for the remainder of the year, or will they resort back to their stalled drives and score less than 25 points again? The Browns’ Colt McCoy will get the start at quarterback again as both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are ‘out’ with ankle injuries. McCoy was actually quite impressive in his first start, on the road, against the league’s best defense. The opener had the Saints -13 ½ and it’s down to -13. Thanks to the Steelers defense, McCoy’s throwing options are limited without Mohamed Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs. The bulk of McCoy’s success at Pittsburgh was going to his tight ends.

The Seahawks have jumped from 4 ½-point favorites to -6 at some places for their home game against the Cardinals. It’s hard to believe the Cardinals, with Max Hall at quarterback, are playing for the NFC West division lead in this game, but here they are. Seattle looks to have a pretty good offensive structure in place with the addition of running back Marshawn Lynch. An extra week of work for Hall working with the first string during their bye week should also benefit the Cardinals.

The Vikings are playing the Packers this week, but rather than talking about Favre’s second visit to Lambeau Field as a visitor, everyone seems to be more fixated on Favre’s alleged misconduct. How can there be any investigation when no one reported it. There’s no police report and no court involvement, so where’s the story.

Anyway, the Packers opened -3 (+105) and are now -2 ½ as they try to work out some of their own problems. There were times last week when QB Aaron Rodgers looked as though he was still suffering from his mild concussion from the previous week. Green Bay doesn’t have a running game and misses tight end Jermichael Finley’s impact over the middle. Not making a deal for Marshawn Lynch three weeks ago may turn out to haunt the Packers, a team many of us had going to the Super Bowl this year.

The only other move of the week in the NFL had the Bengals being dropped from +4 to +3 ½. The early Sunday line at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book had the Falcons as 5 ½-point home favorites.

College Football Early Line Moves of the Week

Oregon opened as -22 home favorites against UCLA and closed at -26
Louisville opened +2 ½ at home against Connecticut and are now favored -2 ½
Akron opened +9 at home against Western Michigan and are currently +7
Stanford opened -34 at home against Washington State and are now -36
Texas Tech opened -1 at Colorado and are currently -2 ½
Fresno State was bet from -18 ½ to -20 at San Jose State, bet then bet against at +20. The line currently sits at -19 ½
Arkansas State opened -6 ½ at home against Florida Atlantic and it’s now -8 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7

Redskins at Bears - The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 01, 2006 when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 05, 2006 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Bears are 7-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since October 12, 1997 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Bears are 0-7 OU (-10.6 ppg) since November 16, 2008 versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss.

Raiders at Broncos - The Raiders are 0-9-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since October 17, 2004 when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since October 24, 2004 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since January 22, 2006 at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since January 22, 2006 as a home favorite after playing at home. The Broncos are 9-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since October 30, 2005 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog.

Rams at Buccaneers - The Rams are 9-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since October 8, 2006 when they won against a non-divisional opponent last game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since November 25, 1991 within 3 of pick when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 10-0-1 ATS (15.1 ppg) since October 13, 1996 when they lost by 21+ last game, one normal rest. The Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since December 21, 2008 at home after playing as a dog. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (15.0 ppg) since December 23, 2001 within 3 of pick when they are one game above 500. The Buccaneers are 0-6 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a straight up loss.

Patriots at Chargers - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since October 27, 1991 as a dog the week after playing an overtime game. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (17.4 ppg) since October 20, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 02, 2000 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since September 10, 1995 as a dog after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Chargers are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 28, 1997 within 3 of pick when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

Jaguars at Chiefs - The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 19, 2006 as a home favorite after a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since October 07, 2007 at home when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 04, 2007 as a favorite. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-7.2 ppg) since September 28, 1992 after a loss against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-9.4 ppg) since December 17, 2005 the week after scoring more than 24 points and losing.

Steelers at Dolphins - The Steelers are 0-12 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The League is 0-8-1 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since December 07, 2008 as a road favorite after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since September 18, 2006 as a road favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 15, 2003 at home after playing on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Dolphins are 0-9-1 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 20, 1992 at home when they are one game above 500 after a straight up win.

Bengals at Falcons - The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since September 21, 1997 on the road the week after their bye. The Falcons are 9-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when they lost by 7+ last game. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since October 31, 2004 the week after as a dog in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Falcons are 0-7 OU (-4.4 ppg) since November 29, 1992 as a home favorite when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Falcons are 7-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since December 15, 2002 the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.

49ers at Panthers - The 49ers are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 03, 1996 on the road the week after a win in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 11, 2001 after a win against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since Secember 24, 1995 when they trailed by 14+ after one quarter on normal rest last game. The 49ers are 0-12 OU (-7.3 ppg) since December 03, 1989 as a road favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Bills at Ravens - The Bills are 8-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since December 20, 1992 as a road dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The Bills are 8-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. Teams are 10-0 ATS (15.2 ppg) since January 2000 when they went to OT with the Patriots last game. The Ravens are 0-9 OU (-10.4 ppg) since December 31, 2006 when they won their last two home games. The Ravens are 0-7 OU (-9.8 ppg) since December 31, 2006 after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.

Browns at Saints - The Browns are 9-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when they threw for 250+ yards last game. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 16, 2007 when their DPA was negative on the road last game. The Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (13.4 ppg) since November 16, 2008 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Saints are 7-0-2 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 16, 2008 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-4.9 ppg) since November 08, 1992 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-14.7 ppg) since September 22, 1991 as a road dog the week before their bye. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-15.8 ppg) since November 30, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 8-0 OU (22.1 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a favorite the week after a game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays.

Cardinals at Seahawks - The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since December 1999 when they trailed at half last game and won by 7+. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since September 07, 2008 vs a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since December 18, 2005 when they covered by a TD+ last game and committed 0 or 1 turnovers. The Cardinals are 13-0 OU (14.7 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a road dog when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (18.8 ppg) since November 26, 2006 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date.

Eagles at Titans - The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since November 10, 2003 as a road dog when they won and covered their last two games. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 26, 1993 when they get a team off a Monday Night game. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since November 25, 2002 as a road dog the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Titans are 0-9-1 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since January 19, 2003 when they had more than normal rest last game and it wasn't on a Sunday. The Eagles are 10-0-1 OU (10.5 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 11-0-1 OU (11.3 ppg) since October 31, 1999 within 3 of pick at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

Vikings at Packers - The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since November 11, 1990 on the road the week after a straight up win in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 0-7-2 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since January 16, 2005 as a road dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a road dog when they lost their last two road games.

Giants at Cowboys - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) since September 21, 1992 when they scored 21+ points and failed to cover by less than three points last game. The Cowboys are 10-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 02, 2003 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since September 15, 1997 at home vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-13.4 ppg) since November 28, 1996 as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. The Cowboys are 0-7 OU (-8.1 ppg) since September 24, 1989 the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-6 OU (-12.2 ppg) since December 30, 2007 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

[StarDust Bum]

Interconference Battles

With six weeks wrapped up in the NFL season, the most prevalent theme has been the success of underdogs. Home 'dogs struggled last week with the Rams being the only team to cash, while the Broncos, Bucs, Jaguars, and Redskins all lost when receiving points at home. Another common theme is the frequency of interconference matchups as the NFL saved the final week of the regular season for division-only contests.

Are these interconference games meaningless? No, but when it comes down to tiebreakers at the end of the season for the playoffs, conference record carries plenty of weight in the even of a tie. The next question is how does that benefit gamblers moving forward in these AFC vs. NFC contests?

The AFC has turned in a profitable 14-11 SU and 13-11-1 ATS against NFC competition, but the two conferences have split the last 18 meetings since Week 3. The first two weeks of interconference play was dominated by the home team, owning a 6-1 SU/ATS mark, while the AFC grabbed five of the first seven matchups. The road team has come back to post an 11-7 ATS ledger the last four weeks, as the Bengals, Eagles and Browns are in this spot on Sunday.

Bengals at Falcons (-3 ½, 42 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati is fresh off the bye, as the Bengals head down to the Georgia Dome to battle the Falcons. Atlanta looks to rebound after getting pounded at Philadelphia last Sunday, 31-17 as short road underdogs. The Falcons return home looking for their third home victory of the season.

Since Mike Smith and Matt Ryan arrived in Atlanta in 2008, the Falcons are 11-1 SU when the former BC quarterback starts at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons squeezed out a 16-14 victory as six-point favorites in its last home game against San Francisco in Week 4, only the second ATS loss in Atlanta's previous eight home contests. Atlanta's defense has limited the opposition at home in wins over the Cardinals and Niners, allowing two offensive touchdowns (San Francisco scored another touchdown on blocked punt).

The Bengals may have a lot of big names offensively, but Cincinnati is coming off consecutive losses to Cleveland and Tampa Bay. However, Marvin Lewis' team is 8-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, including an outright win over Baltimore in Week 2. The Bengals own a 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS mark the last three seasons on the road off a home loss, with the only SU win coming at Green Bay in 2009.

Eagles at Titans (-3, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee is stuck in a 4-2 logjam along with Houston and Indianapolis atop the AFC South after the Titans blew out the Jaguars on Monday night. Jeff Fisher's club heads back to Nashville going for their third interconference win of the season when the Eagles fly into town. Despite a quarterback controversy that has been ongoing all season, Kevin Kolb gets the call again for Philadelphia, coming off a strong performance in a blowout win over Atlanta.

Vince Young looks to get the start for the Titans after getting knocked out in the second quarter against Jacksonville with a knee injury. Kerry Collins stepped in and threw for 110 yards and a touchdown to lift Tennessee to its third road victory of the season. Since Young was drafted in 2006, the Titans own a pedestrian 11-12-1 ATS record as a home favorite, while splitting home contests against the Raiders and Broncos this season.

The Eagles own the same 3-0 road record as the Titans, but Philadelphia has beaten two teams (San Francisco and Detroit) that have a combined two wins. Kolb put up a career-best 326 yards against Atlanta, the second straight game in which the Eagles scored at least 27 points. Philadelphia will not have big-play threat DeSean Jackson in the lineup as the former Cal star is out with a concussion. The Eagles have the bye next week, which doesn't set up well for Philadelphia, as it owns a 2-3 SU/ATS mark prior to the open date since 2005.

Browns at Saints (-13, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans finally busted out with its first double-digit victory of the season by drilling Tampa Bay, 31-6. The Saints covered only their second game of 2010 against the Bucs, but New Orleans is just 6-13 ATS the last 19 games. The Browns have hung tough this season, as Eric Mangini's squad looks to improve on a 1-5 record. Cleveland is running a tough gauntlet after facing Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, while throwing out its third-string quarterback in Colt McCoy.

The former Texas Longhorn played well in his debut at Pittsburgh, putting up 281 yards in a 28-10 setback as 14-point underdogs. McCoy did throw a pair of interceptions, as top playmaker Josh Cribbs is questionable after suffering a concussion. Cleveland has been outgained in each of its last five games, while scoring 17 points or less in all five defeats. The Browns are just 3-5 ATS as a double-digit road underdog since 2008, but managed a cover as 12-point 'dogs at Baltimore in Week 3.

The Saints have struggled to cover numbers recently, while trying to find some consistency on offense. New Orleans has scored 24 points or more in three games, but has been held to 16 or less in home contests against Minnesota and Carolina. For as much as the Browns have had a problem covering big numbers as a 'dog, the Saints own a 1-6 ATS mark since the start of last season as a double-digit favorite.

Upcoming Interconference Matchups:

Week 8
Jacksonville at Dallas
Green Bay at N.Y. Jets
Denver vs. San Francisco (London)
Minnesota at New England
Seattle at Oakland
Pittsburgh at New Orleans

Week 9
Chicago vs. Buffalo (Toronto)
N.Y. Jets at Detroit
Indianapolis at Philadelphia