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**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 08:25 PM

NFL odds wait for Titans' injury updates

It’s understandable that New England with Tom Brady and Indianapolis with Peyton Manning are the two top scoring teams in the NFL.

But ranking right behind them at No. 3 are the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are averaging 27 points in their six games. If you throw out their Week 2 game against Pittsburgh when they were held to only 11 points, the Titans would be averaging 30.2 points.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the highest-scoring team in the NFC averaging 25.5 points. They rank second to Dallas in the NFC in total offense.

So we should expect a high-scoring game on Sunday when the Titans host the Eagles at 10 a.m. (PT), right?

Not so fast. Injuries NFL Football Injuries Latest Information - DonBest.com may reduce those expectations. Vince Young is ‘questionable’ after suffering a knee injury in Monday’s 30-3 Tennessee road victory against Jacksonville and Eagles’ star wide receiver DeSean Jackson is likely to miss the game after suffering a concussion this past Sunday against Atlanta. Jackson is not only the Eagles’ top playmaker, but one of the most dangerous all-purpose players in the NFL.

In addition to Jackson, the Eagles aren’t expected to have defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley (elbow) and offensive left tackle Jason Peters (knee).

NFL oddsmakers have yet to post a number on this matchup as they wait on Young’s status. If Young can’t go, 37-year-old Kerry Collins would be the Titans quarterback.

It’s pretty much a given that Kevin Kolb will continue as Philadelphia’s quarterback as Michael Vick continues to sit out due to a rib injury. During a radio interview Vick said he anticipates returning in Week 9 following the Eagles’ bye next week.

“The movement’s still not there; the mobility’s still no there in my upper chest,” Vick was quoted as saying. “… I think it doesn’t make sense to try to rush back and play and be hurting.”

After a shaky start where he lost his job to Vick, Kolb has stepped up completing 73.3 percent of his passes during the last two games while compiling a 118.7 passer rating.

Kolb completed 23-of-29 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons. The Eagles won 31-17 as one-point home favorites despite David Akers missing three field goals. Jeremy Maclin had his finest game catching seven passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns. The combined 48 points went ‘over’ the 43-point total.

Philadelphia has held three of its six opponents to 17 points or less after accomplishing that feat only twice during its previous 13 games.

The Eagles’ run defense has stepped up holding their last two opponents – Atlanta and San Francisco – to 3.4 yards on the ground per run after allowing 4.4 yards per carry during the first four weeks.

Neither Frank Gore nor Michael Turner could dent the Eagles’ run defense for more than 52 yards on the ground. But here comes Chris Johnson, who set an NFL record with 2,509 combined rushing and receiving yards last season.

The NFL’s leading rusher last season, Johnson is second this season with 596 yards, trailing Houston’s Arian Foster by 39 yards. Johnson also has a league-best seven rushing touchdowns.

The Titans held Jacksonville quarterbacks David Garrard and Trent Edwards to 173 yards passing, while holding the Jaguars to 76 yards rushing. Prior to beating the Jaguars, the Titans had surrendered 1,042 yards through the air in their last three games.

The victory against Jacksonville was just the Titans’ second pointspread cover in the last 12 meetings versus opponents with a winning record. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five home contests.

The Eagles have covered in six of their last eight October games. The early weather forecast is for sunny skies with temperatures in the 60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 08:27 PM

Ravens saddled with big Week 7 NFL spread

There is an interesting Week 7 matchup when Buffalo travels to Baltimore searching for its first victory of the season. The Bills are off to their worst start in 25 years and enter this game off their bye week.

Buffalo is 0-5 for the fifth time in franchise history, and for the first time since 1985. The Bills have surrendered 34 points or more in four straight games, the first time in franchise history. Buffalo has yielded at least 200 yards rushing in its the previous three contests, and the team has been outscored this season, 146-77. The Bills are also well on their way of extending their playoff drought of 10 years.

Baltimore enters this contest coming off a tough overtime setback to a rival, and will go on its bye week following this matchup. Will the Ravens be focused on one of football’s worst teams?

Don Best's Real-Time Odds lists Baltimore as decided 14 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Buffalo, with the total set at 41. Kickoff is slated for 10 a.m. PT from Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. This matchup constitutes the biggest line on the Week 7 schedule.

Buffalo (0-5 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) is still searching for its first victory of the season after its Oct. 10 setback to Jacksonville as a 2 ½-point home favorite, 36-26. The combined 62 points soared past the 41 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the third consecutive contest.

Things were looking good for the Bills after opening a 10-point lead just six minutes into the game. But Buffalo finished the game trailing the Jaguars in first downs (21-17), rushing yards (216-110) and time of possession (34:21-25:39). The Bills did keep things interesting by winning the turnover battle (3-0), including their first interception of the season. Buffalo led the AFC last season with 28 interceptions.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was 20-of-30 passing for 220 yards with three touchdowns, connecting with wideout Lee Evans five times for 87 yards and a score. Running back Fred Jackson paced the ground game with 12 carries for 73 yards in the setback.

Baltimore (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) was riding a three-game SU winning streak before falling to New England in overtime Sunday as a three-point road underdog, 23-20. The combined 43 points failed to eclipse the 44 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-2.

The Ravens finished the contest with advantages in passing yards (278-267), turnovers forced (2-0) and time of possession (40:14-32:50). Signal caller Joe Flacco was 27-of-35 passing for 285 yards with two touchdowns in the loss. Running back Ray Rice had 28 carries for 88 yards, while wideout Derrick Mason caught eight passes for 100 yards.

Buffalo and Baltimore have not played each other since 2007 when the Bills prevailed as a three-point road underdog, 19-14. The combined 33 points slithered ‘under’ the 33 ½-point closing total.

Buffalo safety Bryan Scott (knee) and cornerback Terrence McGee (knee) are ‘questionable’ versus the Ravens with injuries, while offensive lineman Cornell Green (knee) is ‘out.’ The Bills follow this matchup with a road game against Kansas City before embarking on a two-game homestand versus Chicago and Detroit.

Baltimore tight end Todd Heap (shoulder), offensive tackle Jared Gaither (back), cornerback Fabian Washington (leg), cornerback Josh Wilson (hamstring), linebacker Tavares Gooden (shoulder) and linebacker Paul Kruger (knee) are ‘questionable’ versus the Bills.

Sunday’s forecast for Baltimore calls for mostly cloudy skies, with a high of 66 degrees and a low of 52.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 08:28 PM

2010 NFL spread winners and losers

Over a third of the regular season is now complete in the 2010 NFL betting campaign, and here at Don Best we are taking a look back at what has been for the best and worst teams of the season for football bettors.

Stock Up: Detroit Lions (5-1 ATS, 1-5 SU)
Notice the SU and ATS marks here. The Lions are quite the dichotomy, as they have mirror image SU and ATS records. Just as they did on Sunday against the New York Giants, the Lions have been hitting the backdoor in games left and right, and NFL oddsmakers just can't seem to figure out how to line their games.

Detroit knows that it is taking steps in the right direction, and things might only get better and better as well. After the bye week, QB Matt Stafford should be back in the fold, and if that's the case the offense, which has been hit and miss under QB Shaun Hill, could be one of the best in the NFC.

Stock Down: Dallas Cowboys (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU)
Could the hammer be ready to drop on head coach Wade Phillips? It probably should after Dallashttp://www.donbest.com/nfl/team-list/?page=nfl/nflteam&teamid=DALLAS&season=2010 has gotten off to just a 1-4 start and is two games back in the loss column in the NFC East.

Many thought that the Cowboys would have no problem winning a dozen games this season, but it just hasn't panned out and we aren't so sure why. The majority of the offense came back from last year, and the switch of Miles Austin for Patrick Crayton in the receiving corps has seemingly made no difference. So why the struggles?

Dallas can't run the football to save its life right now, and the defense has been shoddy, particularly down the stretch of games. Dumb penalties are cover killers, and that's what NFL betting fans of the men in "Big D" are finding out the hard way in 2010.

Stock Up: New York Jets (5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU)
Could New York really have the best team in the AFC? The Jets are on the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games, and they are playing some fantastic... offense?

That's right. The team that was built to play a devastating defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL in scoring at 26.5 points per game. The difference this year is the play of QB Mark Sanchez. The second year man out of Southern Cal has thrown for 1,100 yards and nine scores. Most importantly though, he only threw his first two picks of the year this past weekend. Running Backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene are on pace to run for a combined 2,100+ yards this year.

Oh yes, there's something about this defense that we should probably note as well, something about being the most feared unit in the league. Needless to say, head coach Rex Ryan definitely has a team to be reckoned with.

Stock Down: Carolina Panthers (1-4 ATS, 0-5 SU)
It was a tough call between Carolina and the Buffalo Bills for the biggest disappointment this year for NFL betting fans, but we already knew that the Bills were going to be a train wreck.

The Panthers have not been able to get their offense going at all this this year, as they really haven't totally proven that they have even one competent quarterback even though both Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore have played. The offense has just five touchdowns in as many games, and the team as a whole is averaging just a shade over 10 PPG.

There really might not be a win on the horizon either, even though we tend to believe that these guys will score a 'W' at some point. But for now, this is definitely one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 09:01 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 7

PITTSBURGH at MIAMI... Interestingly, the road team has covered in Miami’s first five games TY (Dolphins 0-2 at home). Miami now 6-20 vs. line at home since late ‘06 (5-14 for Sparano). Dolphins also "over" 9-1 last 10 at home. Steelers have won and covered first two on road TY. Tech edge-Steelers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at ATLANTA... Cincy just 10-16 vs. line away since ‘07. Falcons 14-8 vs. number since start of 2009 season. Atlanta also "under" 7-3 last 10 at Georgia Dome. Tech edge-Falcons and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY... Even after loss on Monday vs. Titans, Jags have made a bit of a recovery this season, now 3-3 vs. line after 5-11 a year ago and 9-23 the previous two seasons. Jags also "over" 5-2 since late LY. Chiefs also improved with 4-1 spread marks. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on recent Jags "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE... Birds have won SU their first 3 away TY (2-1 vs. line) and lost their first two at home. Note Andy Reid was 0-3 as road dog LY, but even so, counting last week’s cover at SF, Philly 11-4 last 15 in role. Titans just 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Also "over’ 12-6 last 18 at LP Field. Tech edge-Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO... Lovie "under" first two at Solider Field TY, now "under" 8-3 last 11 as host. Bears just 5-10 as home chalk since ‘07 (0-1m TY). Tech edge-"Under," based on Bears home "totals" trends.

CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS... Saints 5-13-1 last 19 on board since mid ‘09. Browns 6-2-1 vs. line last 8 on road, and Brownies "under" 14-7-1 last 22 away since late ‘07. Tech edge-Browns and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at BALTIMORE... Bills 1-4 vs. line TY. John Harbaugh 11-4 as home chalk. Baltimore "over" first 2 at home TY but "under" 4-2 overall, and "under" 20-11 last 31 on board. Tech edge-Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at CAROLINA... Panthers no covers yet at home (0-3). John Fox "under" first three at home TY and 9-2 last 11 at home, and "under" 20-7 at Charlotte since ‘07. Tech edge-49ers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at TAMPA BAY... Bucs 1-9-1 vs. line at home for Raheem Morris, also "under" 14-8 overall since Morris arrived LY. Rams have covered 4 of last 5, all as dog, TY, and "under" 7-3 away since Spagnuolo arrived LY. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at SEATTLE... Seattle 2-0 SU and vs. line a home, 1-2 SU and vs. line away. Seahawks actually 9-3 vs. line last 12 as host. Cards, though, have won and covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 in series. Whisenhunt 1-2 as dog TY but 11-3 last 14 in role. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on Whisenhunt dog mark.

NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO... Belichick only 8-7 as dog since ‘05. Norv 2-0 SU and vs. line at home TY, also "over" first two and "over" 9-4 last 13 as host. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at DENVER... This has turned into a very odd visitor-oriented series the past two years, with road team winning and covering all four meetings since ‘08. In fact, Raiders have covered last 4 at Denver. Broncos also "over" 5-1 TY and10-1 last 11 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and Raiders, based on series and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY... Vikings won and covered both meetings with Favre LY after Pack had covered previous 4. Last four "over" in series. Pack only 6-7 vs. line last 12 as host. Tech edge-slight to Vikings and "over," based on recent series trends.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS (Monday, October 25)...Giants won and covered both meetings LY and 4 of last 5 in series. Last 2 and 5 of last 7 "over" in series. Wade Phillips 0-2 vs. line at home TY, also "over" first 2 as host. Giants "over" 6-3 on road since LY and "over" 14-7 last 21 overall. Tech edge-"Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 05:05 PM

Vince Young expected to start vs. Eagles

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-2)
at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher says that QB Vince Young will likely play on Sunday despite knee and ankle sprains suffered in Monday’s win at Jacksonville. The injuries are said to be mild, but Young did not practice on Wednesday. The Eagles also have quarterback news as Michael Vick (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, making Kevin Kolb the starter again. Kolb will likely be without his top WR De’Sean Jackson who is doubtful after suffering a concussion last week.

******* take:
Even if Young (98.8 passer rating) has a setback this week and doesn’t start Sunday, the Titans don’t lose much with their backup Kerry Collins (91.4 passer rating), who was 11-of-16 for 110 yards and a touchdown in Monday’s win after replacing Young. The game plan to stopping the Titans starts and stops with RB Chris Johnson, who has three 100-yard rushing performances and five touchdowns in his past four games. Despite being limited in practice last week with a thigh injury, Johnson carried the ball 26 times for 111 yards and two scores against the Jaguars.

Kolb has played very well since reclaiming his starting position following Vick’s injury. In the past three games, Kolb has thrown for 780 yards, 5 TD and just 2 INT. Jackson scored two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) before exiting from Philly’s 31-17 win against Atlanta. Jeremy Maclin stepped in nicely for his injured teammate, finishing the game with seven catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns.

These teams have only met three times since the Titans moved out of Houston. Tennessee has won all three games including a 31-13 drubbing at Philly in the last meeting in 2006. Despite this historical data, the FoxSheets shows this recent trend that makes Tennessee the play.

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (89-43 since 1983.) (67.4%, +41.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 05:06 PM

Boller expected to start for Oakland against Denver

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OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-4)
at DENVER BRONCOS (2-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

With QBs Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder) and Jason Campbell (knee) both injured, Kyle Boller will likely start under center when the Raiders visit Denver on Sunday. Gradkowski has an AC joint sprain that kept him out of last week’s game at San Francisco, and Campbell has a sprained left knee. The Raiders are hopeful their best RB Darren McFadden can return from his hamstring injury that kept him out of the last two games. He will test the hamstring Wednesday to see how explosive he can be.

******* take:
Boller, a former first round draft pick by Baltimore has 48 TD and 50 INT in his seven-year NFL career. Last season for St. Louis, he completed just 55.7 percent of his 176 pass attempts, throwing for twice as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (three). Oakland desperately needs McFadden (139 total YPG) back for the Raiders to establish their ground game. RB Michael Bush only had 47 yards on 20 carries last week and has a 3.6 YPC average this season. The Broncos do have a propensity to allow big rushing days, ranking 25th in the NFL with 128 rush YPG this year.

The Raiders rush defense is even worse than Denver’s (150 rush YPG allowed, 30th in NFL), but the Broncos continue to be the weakest rushing offense in the league (67 YPG, 2.7 YPC). Knowshon Moreno returned to action last week, but he only gained 48 yards on 12 carries. QB Kyle Orton has orchestrated the third-best air attack in the NFL (311 pass YPG) but he might be missing a key weapon in Eddie Royal whose status is uncertain due to a groin injury.Denver has lost its last two home games to the Raiders -- 20-19 last season and a 31-10 thumping in 2008. This FoxSheets trends show why Oakland will at least cover again, and maybe even win outright, on Sunday.

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) - off a road loss, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. (84-43 since 1983.) (66.1%, +36.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game. (187-123 over the last 10 seasons.) (60.3%, +51.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:14 PM

NFL Betting: Steelers head south to Miami

Ben Roethlisberger gets his first taste of the road after his suspension when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as three-point road favorites (minus 105) with a total of 40 ½-points. Miami is plus 135 to win the game outright.

Roethlisberger got a standing ovation during introductions last week from the home crowd. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 28-10 as 14-point ‘chalk.’ His suspension was due to sexual assault allegations from a Georgia nightclub incident, but Steelers fans clearly prefer to focus on the team’s quest for its seventh Super Bowl title.

The Miami fans won’t be nearly as hospitable and ‘Big Ben’ will surely get his share of negative chants and signs. Roethlisberger seemed nervous at the start of the Browns game, throwing an interception on the first possession, but he settled down in the second half with 177 of his 257 passing yards.

The Steelers’ pass offense ranks 28th in the league (160.2 YPG) as they averaged just 136 YPG with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch starting. The pass offense ranked ninth in the NFL last year (259.3 YPG), with Roethlisberger playing 15 games.

Pittsburgh has a top-10 rushing attack led by Rashard Mendenhall. The defense is dominant once again, ranking sixth in total yards (296.8 YPG) and first in run defense (63.8 YPG). Opposing runners are averaging just 2.7 yards per carry.

Miami’s 12th ranked defense (201.8 YPG) will be a lot tougher than Cleveland’s unit. Roethlisberger will get some pressure in the pocket and be forced to scramble while looking down the field. That was a skill he mastered in prior years, but rust could show this week.

Pittsburgh is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this year with wins at Tennessee (19-11) and Tampa Bay (38-13). Tennessee committed seven turnovers. The Steelers were 3-5 SU and ATS on the road last year.

The Miami Dolphins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) have had a very strange season. They’re perfect on the road at 3-0 SU and ATS, including wins at Minnesota (14-10) in Week 2 and at Green Bay (23-20 in OT) last week.

Miami has come up short at home with crushing division losses to New England (41-14) and the NY Jets (31-23). The Dolphins were one-point favorites each time and will be a home ‘dog this week. Home ‘dogs are 20-14-1 (58.8 percent) this year, although just 1-3-1 last week.

Miami has a good rushing attack with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but they may be lucky to combine for 100 yards against this Pittsburgh defense.

Quarterback Chad Henne has endured the wrath of South Florida fans with his uneven play. There was even talk about being replaced by Tyler Thigpen or veteran Chad Pennington after the Patriots game (three interceptions).

Henne was 23-of-39 for 231 yards versus the Packers. He had two TDs and one pick. Brandon Marshall was targeted 17 times and had 10 catches for 127 yards. The Pittsburgh cornerbacks are the weakest part of the defense and Henne will need to make more big throws to Marshall without turning the ball over.

The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in Miami’s last four home games. Opposing teams scored 32 ½ PPG in those contests.

One of those was versus Pittsburgh in the regular season finale last year. Both teams were mathematically alive for the playoffs, but Pittsburgh had the much better chance. The Steelers won 30-24 as three-point favorites, but missed the postseason anyhow.

Steelers’ defensive end Brett Keisel is out Sunday due to a hamstring injury. Offensive guard Doug Legursky (knee) is probable after replacing the injured Trai Essex (ankle).

Miami fullback Lousaka Polite (knee) is questionable. Rookie defensive end Jared Odrick (ankle) is questionable as well.

Kickoff is at 10 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather should around 80 degrees with a chance of showers.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:15 PM

Broncos TD favorites to beat Raiders

AFC West rivals Oakland and Denver renew acquaintances this weekend with identical records, trailing Kansas City in one of football’s most balanced divisions. The Raiders are still searching for their first road victory of the season, while the Broncos hope to improve on their dismal 1-4 record versus conference opponents.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds lists Denver as seven-point home ‘chalk’ over Oakland, with the total set at 42 ½. CBS Sports will provide coverage of this AFC West affair beginning Sunday at 1:15 p.m. PT from Denver’s Invesco Field at Mile High.

Some sports books have this game circled due to the ‘doubtful’ status of Oakland quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo Rocket continues to deal with an injured shoulder, and backup Kyle Boller is expected to play after Jason Campbell’s dismal performance versus the 49ers.

Oakland (2-4 straight up, 3-3 against the NFL spread) takes the field for the first time since Sunday’s setback to Bay Area rival San Francisco as a nine-point road underdog, 17-9. The combined 26 points never seriously threatened the 40 ½-point closing total. That marked the second consecutive contest that the Raiders covered.

Oakland could only muster three field goals from Sebastian Janikowski, and lost after surrendering two second-half touchdowns. The Raiders finished the contest trailing the 49ers in first downs (17-10), rushing yards (158-110), passing yards (191-69), turnovers forced (2-0) and time of possession (33:21-26:39).

Campbell completed just 8-of-21 passes for 83 yards with two interceptions, leaving him with an embarrassing-low 10.7 quarterback rating. Running back Michael Bush paced the ground game with 20 carries for 47 yards, while tight end Zach Miller caught two passes for 48 yards.

Denver (2-4 SU and ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing streak after falling to the New York Jets Sunday as a 3 ½-point home underdog, 24-20. The combined 44 points eclipsed the 43-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 5-1.

The Broncos ended the third quarter leading, but lost the game after getting outscored in the fourth, 14-3. Denver finished the matchup with advantages in first downs (21-17), rushing yards (145-129), passing yards (209-190) and turnovers forced (3-2), but still managed to lose the game.

Quarterback Kyle Orton was 14-of-34 passing for 209 yards with a touchdown, connecting with wideout Jabar Gaffney six times for 81 yards. Running back Knowshon Moreno had 12 carries for 48 yards, while backup quarterback Tim Tebow ran six times for 23 yards and a score.

The road team has won and covered the last four meetings in the Oakland-Denver series. That trend continued last year when the Raiders prevailed as a 13 ½-point road underdog, 20-19, and the Broncos triumphed as a one-point road ‘chalk,’ 23-3. The ‘over’ is 4-2 the previous six games between these teams.

Oakland running back Darren McFadden (hamstring), tight end Brandon Myers (concussion), linebacker Thomas Howard (knee), running back Michael Bennett (hamstring) and defensive back Walter McFadden (hamstring) are ‘questionable’ versus the Broncos. The Raiders follow this contest with a two-game homestand versus Seattle and Kansas City.

Denver wide receiver Eddie Royal (groin), defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson (undisclosed), linebacker Wesley Woodyard (hamstring), fullback Spencer Larsen (chest), safety Darcel McBath (ankle) and cornerback Andre Goodman (thigh) are ‘questionable’ against the Raiders. The Broncos travel to San Francisco next weekend before going on their bye week.

Oakland is 6-2 ATS the past eight meetings with Denver. The Raiders have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 their previous eight outings versus AFC opponents. Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 10-1 its last 11 games overall.

Sunday’s forecast for Denver calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 60 degrees and a low of 47.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:16 PM

Sifting through indicators for NFL betting

If you've been following our articles, you may have asked yourself this question by now: So what's more reliable in trying to determine an NFL winning team against the spread, expert pickers or team statistics? The quick answer (like answers to most questions connected with a complex computer solution to what is essentially a 50/50 proposition) is...well, that depends.

First, you'll need a quick history lesson. Our logic-based software was actually designed to include a third category in addition to pickers and statistics – namely discretionary. This was designed for unusual late developing events which were likely not covered by historical statistics or pickers (whose selections were already registered). These could be related to weather, illness, injury, the loss of a key player, etc.

Let me give you a hypothetical example of how this works. Say the night before game a star wide receiver is in a nightclub and accidentally shoots himself in the foot with a handgun, rendering himself unable to play (I know, this sort of thing is wild and never happens in real life). The idea is that the software can apply a discretionary factor in favor of the team that has no gunshot victims. This would either change the team expected to win from one to the other or increase the likelihood of winning by the original team already expected to win against the spread.

What we discovered, however, was that this third category was not used that often. In many of the discretionary occurrences, the pickers picked up the slack and, in many instances of last minutes issues, bets had already been placed. Nevertheless, examination and analysis of late-breaking events continues to be an important part of the software's solution.

A good example of what we thought might have been a discretionary issue were games at the end of the season when some teams were coasting into the playoffs with second stringers and other teams were fighting for playoff berths. But both the spread and the expert pickers recognized the reality of these matchup scenarios whereas, of course, the statistics were simply regurgitating somewhat irrelevant history.

We made another interesting discovery. Although not late developing, we thought the discretionary category might be appropriate at the beginning of the season when statistics wouldn't be current and the pickers wouldn't be properly apprised of team changes. In fact, we were right about the pickers, but the way we handled the stats by using games from the latter portion of the previous year turned out to be a good early season indicator.

One other issue that has to be understood about the history and development of our logic-based product is that there are two levels of computer routines, what we call Tier 1 and Tier 2. Tier 1 creates a Chance of Winning (CW) factor and Tier 2 produces the end result for customers, namely the Preferred Wager (PW) factor.

The CW factors are run for all weekly matchups and selects winners showing factors in excess of 50.0. At this level, the software might achieve a success rate in the 53% to 54% range for all 256 games in a regular season. The PW factor is a derivative of the CW factor and this is where the fine tuning occurs and where the culling occurs for games that are really too close to call.

It is at the Tier 2 level (the PW calculation) that the expert pickers are most important. The computer routines here are looking for inconsistencies between statistics and pickers, amongst other things, and down grading matchups where they occur. That's why some of the PW factors are below 50.0 when matchups fall in the category of wagers "Not Recommended."

In the end, one of the keys to the strength of our product is that Picks and Statistics complement each other in the opening computer routines and then are forced to be in concert when final PW decisions are taken.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 04:31 PM

NFL line movement shows profitable trends

Through Week 6, there have been 46 games for which the difference between the opening line and the final line has been a full point or more. Looking at this entire group of games, the teams toward which the line moved have gone 20-24 ATS and 23-23 SU. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, a closer investigation of these games reveals a pair of strong angles.
There have been 11 games for which the line moved by two points or more toward the favorite from the original line. In these games, favorites have gone just 3-8 ATS and 6-5 SU. Playing the underdog in these situations has been a winning proposition 73% of the time. One game to keep an eye on in Week 7 is St. Louis at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have moved from -2 to -3 so far. If the line continues to go up, a strong case can be made for the Rams. The Bucs have yet to cover the spread in three home games this season (0-2 ATS, 1-2 SU). Here is some additional data from the FoxSheets, which supports St. Louis:

• Play Against - Home favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a poor rushing defense - allowing 130 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. (133-76 since 1983.) (63.6%, +49.4 units. Rating = 2*).
• Tampa Bay is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was Tampa Bay 13.6, Opponent 28.1 - (Rating = 1*).

The second solid angle related to line movement so far this season involves games in which the line moved by more than a point in the direction of the underdog. In these games, underdogs are a near perfect 8-1 ATS (89%), winning six of the nine games outright. There are currently two Week 7 games that merit some attention from this angle.

Underachieving Cincinnati began the week as a 4.5-point underdog at Atlanta, but the Bengals are now at +3.5. Cincinnati’s fellow Buckeye-staters from Cleveland have gone from +14 to +13 for their game at New Orleans this weekend. Continued line movement in this direction would suggest a play on these underdogs.

Additional support for the Browns vs. the Saints includes the fact that the overvalued Super Bowl Champion Saints are just 2-4 ATS on the season, including 1-2 ATS in the Superdome. In fact, in New Orleans’ last two home contests (against Atlanta and Carolina), the line moved more than a point toward the visitors, both of whom covered the spread. Atlanta even won the game outright.

Pay close attention to the lines on these games and any others which may prove to show the type of line movements that have produced high-percentage results so far this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:20 PM

Matt Moore to start Sunday vs. 49ers

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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-5)
at CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 35.5

Despite this matchup of a one-win team and zero-win team, there is plenty of news that bettors should be aware of. For the 49ers, TE Vernon Davis had an MRI on his knee come back negative, and he will start. But his teammate WR Josh Morgan’s status is uncertain due to a thigh injury. For the Panthers, Matt Moore regains his starting QB position and will likely have top WR Steve Smith back in the huddle. Smith says he’s fully recovered from a high ankle sprain and participated fully in Wednesday’s practice.

******* take:
Considering San Francisco has the third-worst scoring offense in football (15.5 PPG), it can’t afford to have any injuries. Davis leads the team in receiving yards (348) and receiving touchdowns (three) while Morgan has the second-most targets among 49ers WRs with 34 (Michael Crabtree has 45). The 49ers still need a No. 2 running back behind Frank Gore who has 85 percent of the team’s carries this year. Gore has also has been busy in the passing game, catching 33 passes with 50 targets, both team highs. But the biggest reason for San Francisco’s lack of points, and thus wins, is its turnovers. The 49ers rank last in the NFL with a minus-8 turnover margin, as QB Alex Smith has thrown an NFL-most nine picks.

Carolina’s offense is actually worse than San Francisco’s. The Panthers average a league-low 10.4 PPG with the league’s weakest passing offense (136 YPG). They have scored a total of 20 points in three home losses this year. Moore has a 42% completion rate with two touchdowns and six interceptions this season, equaling a 33.3 passer rating. The poor quarterback play has affected Smith greatly, as he has just 13 catches for 174 yards in four games. RB DeAngelo Williams is also struggling, with just one touchdown and 63 rush YPG. He averaged 91 rush YPG with 27 TD in 29 games spanning 2008 and 2009.

Carolina is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings with San Francisco that included a 31-14 win in the last meeting in 2007. This five-star FoxSheets coaching trend shows that Carolina should at least cover, if they don’t win outright.

Panthers head coach John Fox is 19-3 ATS (86.4%, +15.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of CAROLINA. The average score was CAROLINA 24.8, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 5*).

The FoxSheets also point to the Over based on the defenses. San Francisco is allowing 312 YPG and Carolina is slightly worse at 317 YPG.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (72-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:21 PM

Jaguars will start QB Todd Bouman at Kansas City

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-3)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF Total: OFF

The Jaguars will be without QB David Garrard when they travel to Kansas City on Sunday. Garrard suffered a concussion in Monday night’s loss to Tennessee and it is not known when he will return to the field. With second-string QB Trent Edwards suffering a sprained thumb on his throwing hand, recently-signed QB Todd Bouman is the likely starter against the Chiefs. Bouman, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular-season game since 2005, could be without top WR Mike Sims-Walker whose shoulder injury limited him in Wednesday’s practice.

******* take:
Monday’s 30-3 home loss to Tennessee was ugly, but this game could have a similar outcome. The 38-year-old Bouman had a 54.7 passer rating in 2005, the only year he threw 100 passes. In 122 attempts, he had just two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Sims-Walker has had a down year (18 rec, 201 yds, 2 TD), but is still the best option in the passing game. If the Jaguars have any shot at winning, Maurice Jones-Drew has to have a huge game. Last year, Jones-Drew did just that, with 134 total yards and a touchdown in the Jags’ 34-31 win over the Chiefs. Jones-Drew also had nine carries for 82 yards and a TD in his last visit to KC in 2007.

Kansas City’s defense is much better now that it has been in past meetings. The Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (91 YPG) and ninth in scoring (18.4 PPG) despite only forcing five turnovers in five games. The defense is also aided by a clock-milking offense that leads the NFL with 165 rushing YPG. Jamaal Charles has 418 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry this season.

The Jaguars have won six of the eight meetings with the Chiefs including 2-of-3 at Kansas City. This FoxSheets trend shows that Jacksonville could cover the spread, even with Todd Bouman as its quarterback.

Play On - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**bryce** · 10-21-2010, 05:23 PM

Thnx stardust love reading this stuff!

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:42 PM

Chargers host Patriots in NFL betting clash

New England travels across the country in an effort to extend its current winning streak, but the Patriots figure on getting a stern test from San Diego. The Chargers have been abysmal on the road, but they have won their two home games this season by a combined score of 79-23. San Diego is averaging 165.6 yards per game rushing at home, much better than its 92 yard road average.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed San Diego as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over New England, with the total set at 47. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s contest beginning at 1:15 p.m. PT from San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.

New England (4-1 straight up, 2-2-1 against the NFL spread) enters this matchup riding a three-game SU winning streak after upending Baltimore in overtime last weekend as a three-point home favorite, 23-20. The combined 43 points went ‘under’ the 44 ½-point closing total, ending a string of four straight ‘over’ outings.

The Patriots prevailed by scoring 10 points in the fourth quarter, but the game was finally decided with less than two minutes remaining in overtime. New England finished the game with advantages in first downs (23-21) and rushing yards (127-99), but trailed the Ravens in passing yards (278-267), turnovers forced (2-0) and time of possession (40:14-32:50).

Quarterback Tom Brady completed 27-of-44 passes for 267 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Running back Danny Woodhead had 11 carries for 63 yards in the victory, while recently acquired wideout Deion Branch caught nine passes for 98 yards and a score.

San Diego (2-4 SU and ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing streak after Sunday’s setback to St. Louis as 9 ½-point road ‘chalk,’ 20-17. The combined 37 points failed to eclipse the 44 ½-point closing total, ending a string of four consecutive ‘over’ outings.

The Chargers finished the matchup with advantages in first downs (22-20) and passing yards (208-183), while trailing the Rams in rushing yards (117-79), turnovers forced (1-0) and time of possession (33:23-26:37).

Signal caller Philip Rivers was 22-of-37 passing for 208 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Ryan Mathews accounted for 12 carries for 64 yards in the setback, while wideout Patrick Crayton caught six passes for 117 yards.

The home team has won the previous three meetings between New England and San Diego SU, while the Chargers are 2-1 ATS. San Diego won the latest encounter back in 2008 as a six-point home favorite, 30-10. The combined 40 points failed to topple the 45-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the past four games in this series.

New England free safety James Sanders (hamstring injury) is ‘probable’ versus the Chargers, while running back Fred Taylor (toe), safety Jarrad Page (calf), cornerback Terrence Wheatley (foot) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (head) are ‘questionable.’

San Diego running back Ryan Mathews (ankle) and linebacker Brandon Siler (foot) are ‘probable’ against the Patriots, while tight end Antonio Gates (toe), defensive back Darrell Stuckey (hamstring) and wide receiver Legedu Naanee (hamstring) are ‘questionable.’ Wide receiver Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is ‘doubtful,’ while kicker Nate Kaeding (groin) and strong safety Steve Gregory (suspension) are ‘out.’

New England follows this matchup with a home game against Minnesota before embarking on a two-game road trip versus Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 14-6 the last 20 games when listed as an underdog.

San Diego hosts Tennessee next weekend before going on the road to play Houston. The Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 8-2 their previous 10 games on grass. San Diego is 6-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Sunday’s forecast for San Diego calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 66 degrees and a low of 63.

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