ALCS & NLCA All You Need To Know + My Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Cain versus Hanson in Game 2

San Francisco Giants (90-72) pitcher Matt Cain looks to rebound from an awful home start when his team hosts the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.

This is Game 2 of the series, with the opener still pending from late Thursday night. The three other first-round series began on Wednesday, with two road teams (Texas, NY Yankees) coming away winners.

Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA) came up small in the biggest start of his career last Friday night. He was moved ahead of Barry Zito in a potential division-clincher against San Diego. Instead, he allowed three home runs and six earned runs over four innings, losing 6-4.

San Francisco lost again Saturday (4-2) with Zito and didn’t wrap up the NL West until a 3-0 Sunday win behind Jonathan Sanchez.

The 26-year-old Cain was very good in his previous seven starts down the stretch (4-0, 2.45 ERA). The Giants won all seven. His splits show a moderately lower ERA at home (2.93) than away (3.35). San Fran is 10-2 in his last 12 home starts overall.

The right-hander made one start versus Atlanta this year. It was on the road on August 7, three earned runs over five innings in a 3-0 loss. He’s 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Braves. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 4-0 in his last four starts against them.

The Giants are making their first playoff appearance since 2003. That means none of the four projected starters, Cain, Sanchez, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner have playoff experience (Zito will pitch in relief). Those four starters were incredible in September with a combined 1.66 ERA.

Atlanta (91-72) needed a victory last Sunday over Philadelphia, and the San Diego loss, to clinch the wild-card. This is long-time manager Bobby Cox’ last year.

Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA) will oppose Cain. He pitched last Saturday against Philly, allowing no earned runs over five innings, but was pulled after 89 pitches for a pinch-hitter. The Phillies then scored seven runs for a 7-0 win.

The 24-year-old righthander was 8-5 with a 4.13 ERA before the All-Star break. His ERA was just 2.51 after, but he went 2-6 and Atlanta won just six of 16 games.

Hanson had a lower away ERA (3.22) than home (3.43) this year. His one start against the Giants was on August 6 at home, one earned run and three hits over seven innings. He’s never pitched in San Francisco.

Injuries have been a big factor for Atlanta. Starter Jair Jurrjens (knee) is out until at least the NLCS. Untested rookie Brandon Beachy is the projected Game 4 starter. Infielders Chipper Jones (knee) and Martin Prado (hip) are out for the year. Brooks Conrad and Omar Infante are starting at third and second base respectively.

Atlanta was fifth in the NL in runs scored this year (4.56), but slumped to 13th in September (3.41). San Francisco averaged 4.3 runs for the year, 9th in the NL.

The Braves are 4-3 against the Giants this season (1-2 away). They’re 1-6 in their last seven games in San Francisco.

First pitch on Friday is 6:37 p.m. (PT). Weather should be around 60 degrees.

Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) will get the Game 3 start on Sunday. He has a miniscule 1.03 ERA in his last seven starts. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) will be the opposition. The 35-year-old veteran has a 5.32 ERA in seven starts since September 1.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Reds and Phillies resume series

The Cincinnati Reds picked a bad time to get no-hit for just the second time since 1971.

The Reds will try to even their National League playoff series as they meet Philadelphia in Game 2 Friday at 3:07 p.m. (PT) with TBS televising.

MLB oddsmakers don’t think much of Cincinnati’s chances. They’ve opened the Phillies as 185 home favorites with Roy Oswalt against Bronson Arroyo. The ‘over/under’ is 7 ½ with the ‘over’ at minus 130.

Making their first playoff appearance in 15 years, the Reds were completely dominated by Roy Halladay in Game 1 this past Wednesday.

Halladay, a 200 favorite against Edinson Volquez, completely overmatched Cincinnati in throwing just the second no-hitter in postseason history. The first was Don Larsen’s perfect game for the New York Yankees in the 1956 World Series versus the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Reds didn’t come close to getting a hit in the 4-0 loss. Their only runner was Jay Bruce, who walked on a full count in the fifth inning. Halladay threw 79 strikes out of 104 pitches. The combined four runs went ‘under’ the seven-run total.

The good news is the Reds won’t see Halladay, a strong Cy Young Award candidate with 21 wins, for a while. The bad news is they draw Oswalt, another of the top pitchers this decade.

Oswalt is 0-2 this year versus Cincinnati. Prior to that, though, Oswalt owned the Reds winning 23 straight decisions against them. The 33-year-old right-hander is 23-3 versus Cincinnati with a 2.81 ERA in 34 career games.

Oswalt is 13-3 with a 2.76 ERA this season. He has won all five of his decisions at Citizens Band Park since joining Philadelphia from Houston in late July. The Phillies are 10-1 in Oswalt’s past 11 starts.

The Reds led the NL in batting average (.272), home runs (188) and runs (790). But they lack playoff experience, while seven of Philadelphia’s eight hitters who started in Game 1 had been in the playoffs before.

The Phillies have dominated the Reds at home, winning 12 of the past 14 times at Citizens Band Park, including capturing the last seven meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in 10 of the last 13 games in Philadelphia between the two clubs.

Philadelphia is trying to become the first NL team in 66 years to win three straight pennants. The Phillies are 13-1 the past 14 times they’ve been favored in postseason action. They have captured 13 of their last 16 home playoff contests.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Arroyo will try to halt the Phillies’ momentum. He’s the Reds’ lone starting pitcher with playoff experience. Arroyo last pitched in the postseason with the Boston Red Sox in 2005.

The 33-year-old right-hander has a 7.41 ERA in 10 postseason games totaling 17 innings. He was 17-10 during the regular-season with a 3.88 ERA.

Arroyo may not have to deal with Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco, who missed Game 1 because of a sore back. Arroyo was more effective on the road this year going 10-5 with a 3.76 ERA compared to 7-5 at home with a 4.03 ERA. Cincinnati is 11-5 in Arroyo’s last 16 road outings.

The Reds have gone 8-3 following a loss. However, they have dropped eight of their past 10 road games in an underdog role. The ‘over’ is 17-5-4 the past 26 games following a Cincinnati loss.

Philadelphia is 20-8 in its last 28 games versus the Reds.

Bruce Dreckman is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Phillies are 1-9 the past 10 times Dreckman has been behind the plate in their games.

The early weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 60’s with zero percent chance of rain.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record:

7-9-0 43.75% -1460

Saturday, October 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 5:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +123 500*****
Texas - Under 9 500

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET NY Yankees -171 500*****
NY Yankees - Under 9 500

[StarDust Bum]

Rays try to keep season alive in Texas

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TAMPA BAY RAYS
at TEXAS RANGERS

ALDS Game 3 – Texas leads series 2-0
Saturday, 5:05 p.m. EDT, Line: Texas -125, Tampa Bay +105 Total: 9

After losing the first two games at home in the ALDS, the Rays will try to stave off elimination Saturday in Texas. The Rangers are 0-4 all-time in home playoff games.

Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA) will start for the Rangers. Lewis is making his first career postseason start. Lewis finished the season strong, going 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his past five starts.

Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) will take the mound for the Rays. This will be Garza’s fifth postseason start. He has posted a 2-1 record with a 3.96 ERA in his previous four. Garza faced Texas twice this season, winning both games. He struck out a season-high 10 batters in a win against the Rangers on August 17.

The Rays offense has been abysmal this series, scoring just one run and hitting .125 through the first two games. The Rays easily led the majors in runs scored on the road this season scoring 52 runs more than anyone else, so expect their bats to come alive.

Look for Garza to be effective and Tampa Bay to break out on offense and force a Game 4.

The highly-rated FoxSheets trend shows that LEWIS is 2-12 (-15.3 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. (Team's Record) The average score was LEWIS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 5*).

Also, Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they had 2 or less hits, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games. (34-13 since 1997.) (72.3%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Yankees try to complete sweep of Twins

MINNESOTA TWINS
at NEW YORK YANKEES

ALDS Game 3 – New York leads series 2-0
Saturday, 8:35 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -180, Minnesota +170 Total: 9

After winning 94 games during the regular season, the Twins will try to keep their season alive Saturday night. Minnesota has now lost 11 straight and 18 of its last 20 postseason games. Perhaps the only bit of good news for the Twins is that their only two wins over that span have come in the Bronx.

Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA) will try to extend the series to a fourth game. He posted a 7-1 record with a 2.43 ERA in his first 11 starts after being named a full-time starter on July 23. But he struggled in his final two starts of the season allowing nine ER in 11.2 IP.

Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) will make his first postseason start after appearing in 11 games the past three years. Hughes finished the regular season strong, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts.

The Yankees scored 473 runs at home during the regular season, which ranked first in the AL. While Twins fans are holding out hope that Duensing can provide a spark, the Yankees posted the highest OBP and scored the second-most runs against lefties in the majors this season. All factors point towards a New York sweep.

The FoxSheets show two big trends playing against the Twins on Saturday night:

Play On - Any team (NY YANKEES) - in a playoff game, when leading in a playoff series. (57-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.4%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*).

MINNESOTA is 1-14 (-14.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.9, OPPONENT 7.0 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: Yankees aim for sweep of Twins

New York has its sights set on sweeping Minnesota out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Yankees won both matchups in the Twins’ new Target Field, and can close out this best-of-five series with Saturday’s contest.

Minnesota has now lost 11 straight postseason games, including the last eight against New York. The Yankees have trailed in each of those contests before recording the victory. New York has now outscored the Twins, 42-8, when Minnesota has the biggest lead in those games.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds has New York listed as 175 home ‘chalk’ over Minnesota, with the total set at nine. Saturday’s first pitch is scheduled for 5:37 p.m. PT from Yankee Stadium.

Minnesota left-hander Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA) picked up a no-decision last Saturday in his regular-season finale against Toronto. The second-year starter went five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits (one home run) with four walks and three strikeouts on 89 pitches.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Twins eventually won that matchup as a 109 home selection, 5-4. The combined nine runs eclipsed the 7 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 his last four starts.

Duensing has only faced the Yankees once in his major league career, losing in the 2009 postseason as a decided 320 road underdog, 7-2. The former Nebraska Cornhusker was reached for five runs on seven hits (one home run) with a walk and three strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings and 79 pitches. The combined nine runs slithered ‘under’ the 9 ½-run closing total.

Minnesota, a modest 41-40 away from home, is just 2-10 its last 12 games overall. The Twins are a lackluster 6-29 their last 35 games in New York, and 18-56 the previous 74 meetings. Minnesota has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 its last nine road outings.

New York’s Philip Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) beat Boston Sept. 26 in his last regular season start as a 183 home favorite, 4-3. The 6-foot-5 hurler tossed six innings, surrendering a run on three hits with four walks and four strikeouts on 105 pitches.

The combined seven runs failed to topple the 9 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-1 his last three starts. Hughes did throw one inning against the Red Sox last Saturday in a final tune-up for the postseason, yielding no runs or hits while striking out two.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The 24-year-old has only one career start versus the Twins, winning last year’s matchup as 127 home ‘chalk,’ 5-4. Hughes went five innings, allowing three runs on six hits (two home runs) with four walks and two strikeouts on 93 pitches. The combined nine runs went ‘under’ the 10 ½-run closing total.

New York, a stellar 52-29 at Yankee Stadium, sports a 7-1 home record its last eight playoff games. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1-1 during those eight matchups.

Saturday’s home-plate umpire will be Greg Gibson, who has seen the ‘under’ go a robust 24-7 in 35 games behind the dish. There has been an average of just 7.2 runs per game, with 6.9 walks and 14.6 strikeouts.

Saturday’s forecast for Yankee Stadium calls for sunny skies, with a high of 70 degrees and a low of 46.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/09/10 3-0-1 100.00% +1615 Detail
10/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -230 Detail
10/07/10 4-2-0 66.67% +1010 Detail
10/06/10 1-5-0 16.67% -2240 Detail
Totals 10-9-1 52.63% +155



Sunday, October 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +105 500 *****
Texas - Over 9 500 *****

San Francisco - 4:30 PM ET Atlanta -138 500 *****
Atlanta - Over 7 500 *****

Philadelphia - 8:07 PM ET Cincinnati +124 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 7.5 500 *****


Good Luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/09/10 14-10-0 58.33% +1715 Detail
10/08/10 3-5-0 37.50% -675 Detail
Totals 17-15-0 53.13% +1040

Sunday, October 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston 3 3rd 8:39 Phoenix +105 500
Phoenix 0 Under 5 500

Los Angeles - 8:00 PM ET Calgary -115 500
Calgary - Under 5.5 500

Florida - 8:00 PM ET Florida +135 500 *****
Edmonton - Over 5.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Hunter tries to close out series for Texas

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TAMPA BAY RAYS
at TEXAS RANGERS

ALDS Game 4 – Texas leads series 2-1
Sunday 1:05 EDT, Line: Texas –125, Tampa Bay +115 Total: 9

The Rangers will try again to win a postseason series for the first time in team history. They are the only team in baseball that has not accomplished that. On Saturday, the Rays rallied down 2-1 in the eighth to stave off elimination and keep their hopes of reaching the ALCS alive.

Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07 ERA) will make his postseason debut for the Rays today. After going 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA through June, Davis rallied in July, going 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA the rest of the season. This also included strong road numbers of 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) takes the mound for the Rangers. After starting 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA in the first half on the season, Hunter struggled after the All-Star Game, posting a 4.41 ERA in his 16 appearances.

Hunter was undefeated at home this season (7-0, 3.06 ERA) and is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA in both his career starts against the Rays at home. This includes a complete-game, five-hitter he threw on June 5. Wade Davis was roughed up in his only start against the Rangers, allowing eight ER and nine hits in just 3.1 IP at Texas on June 4.

Momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, so while the Rays might have broken out of their offensive slump late in Game 3, the Rangers are still just one win away from winning their first playoff series. Look for the Rangers to jump on Davis early while Hunter pitches well enough to lead the Rangers into the ALCS.

FoxSheets sides with Texas, saying:

TEXAS is 40-22 (+18.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Play Against - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games. (46-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +22.7 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hudson tries to pitch Braves to 2-1 series lead

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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
at ATLANTA BRAVES

NLDS Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Sunday, 4:35 EDT, Line: Atlanta –135, San Francisco +125 Total: 7

Atlanta will host its first postseason game since 2005 Sunday as it looks to take control of the NLDS. The Braves rallied down 4-0 in Game 2 to tie this series with San Francisco at 1-1 with an extra-inning victory on Friday night.

The win was costly, however, as the Braves have most likely lost their closer Billy Wagner until at least the World Series. The Braves will make a decision soon on whether or not they will replace Wagner. MLB postseason roster rules state that if a player is replaced, he cannot play in the next series, so if the Braves advance Wagner cannot re-join the team until the World Series. Atlanta is considering Takashi Saito, Jair Jurrjens or Scott Proctor as possible replacement for Wagner.

Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) will start for the Braves. This will be the ninth postseason start for Hudson whose only playoff win came in 2001. Overall, he is 1-3 with a 3.91 ERA in his eight postseason starts. After going 6-0 with a 1.43 ERA from July 22 to August 28, Hudson faltered down the stretch, going just 2-4 while posting a 5.32 ERA over his last seven starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants. Sanchez pitched the Giants into the postseason throwing five scoreless innings last Sunday to clinch the NL West. Sanchez was masterful in his last seven starts of the season, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

Despite Sanchez’s domination and Hudson’s struggles down the stretch, the numbers tell a different story when facing Sunday’s opponent. Sanchez allowed seven ER and 17 baserunners in his two starts against the Braves this season, going 0-1 in these two starts. Hudson dominated the Giants, allowing just seven baserunners in his 15 innings, going 1-0 in his two starts. A Billy Wagner blown save on April 9 at AT&T Park was the only thing preventing Hudson from going 2-0.

The Braves finished with the majors’ best record at home, while holding the Giants to a .546 OPS in the four games played at Turner Field this season. Look for Hudson to capitalize on that and give Atlanta a 2-1 series lead.

FoxSheets shows two trends favoring the Braves:

Play Against - Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. (137-71 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.9%, +58.8 units. Rating = 3*).

ATLANTA is 21-6 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. The average score was ATLANTA 5.7, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Record:.......Yesterday sucked big time in MLB


11-14-1 44.00% -2160

Monday, October 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 7:30 PM ET San Francisco +130 500*****
Atlanta - Under 7 500*****

[StarDust Bum]

Braves are heavily favored to even NLDS Monday

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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
at ATLANTA BRAVES

NLDS Game 4 – San Francisco leads series 2-1
Monday, 7:35 p.m. EDT, Line: Atlanta –145, San Francisco +135 Total: 7

The loss of closer Billy Wagner had a huge effect on the Braves as they failed to hold a ninth-inning lead in Game 3. On Monday, Atlanta will try to force a Game 5.

Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) will make his second start of the series. Including his start in Game 1, Lowe has been outstanding since the start of September, going 5-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He was the victim of Tim Lincecum’s 1-0, 14-strikeout performance in Game 1 of this series when Lowe went 5.1 innings and allowed just one run on four hits.

Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00 ERA) will get the chance to win the first postseason series for the Giants since the 2002 NLCS. Bumgarner has been terrific in his last six starts, posting a 1.18 ERA with 34 strikeouts and just seven walks in 38 innings.

Both teams have struggled offensively in this series as the Giants are hitting .225 and the Braves just .165. Lowe has experience in this situation before, defeating the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, and getting two very tough outs to knock out the A’s in Game 5 of the 2003 ALDS. Not having Wagner to close out the game Monday won’t matter as Atlanta will hit Bumgarner well enough to cruise to Game 5.

FoxSheets shows these two trends favoring the Braves:

Play On - Home teams (ATLANTA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (298-211 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.5%, +81.7 units. Rating = 2*).

ATLANTA is 173-92 (+54.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997. The average score was ATLANTA 4.5, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB PLAYOFF RECORD:

13-14-1 48.15% -1010


Tuesday, October 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -114 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Over 6.5 500*****


Good Luck !

[bryce]

Good luck Stardust!

[StarDust Bum]

Lee and Price face off in ALDS deciding game

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TEXAS RANGERS
at TAMPA BAY RAYS

ALDS Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT, Line: Tampa Bay -110, Texas +100 Total: 6.5

The Rangers and Rays square off in St. Petersburg in a decisive Game 5 of their ALDS on Tuesday. It’s a rematch of Game 1 starters with Cliff Lee (13-9, 3.12 ERA including postseason) going up against David Price (19-7, 2.81 ERA including postseason).

Lee was brilliant in Game 1, working around a first-inning, bases-loaded jam to throw seven innings of one-run, five-hit ball while striking out 10. The only blemish was a seventh-inning solo home run by Ben Zobrist. The performance was no surprise given Lee’s career postseason numbers – 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in six career starts. He’s had success against the Rays over the years too, going 7-5 with a 2.56 ERA and a WHIP of just under 1.00 in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay.

David Price hopes to deliver a Game 5 win after a shaky outing in the series opener. The young left-hander was touched for five runs (four earned) on nine hits over 6.2 innings. He surrendered two home runs and struck out eight. It was another poor start against Texas, a glaring trend that the Rays hope to turn around on Tuesday. In five lifetime starts against the Rangers (including postseason), Price is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. However, he should enjoy the return trip home. Price was dominant inside the Trop this year, going 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA and .206 opponents’ batting average in the regular season.

The Rays were against the ropes down 2-0 in the series, but these FoxSheets trends think Tampa Bay will pull off the comeback and win its third straight game:

Play On - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (133-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.5%, +72 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*).