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**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2010, 05:22 PM

MLB Betting: Yankees, Twins begin ALDS

The New York Yankees look to shake off a rare late-season collapse when they open up their ALDS series at the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night.

Bookmaker.com has the Yankees as 137 road favorites with a total of seven-runs. They’re 180 ‘chalk’ to win the series.

New York (95-67) led Tampa Bay by 2 ½-games in the AL East on Sept. 4, but finished just 8-17 for the consolation wild-card. The Yankees lost any chance at the division with an 8-4 loss at Boston on Sunday.

Minnesota (94-68) clinched the Central Division on Sept. 21 after the White Sox faded down the stretch. The Twins had a chance at home field advantage throughout the AL Playoffs, but went 2-8 in their final 10 games.

The Yankees have owned their Midwest counterparts the past decade. They went 4-2 in the regular season this year and 45-16 since 2002. That doesn’t include ALDS wins in 2003 (3-1), 2004 (3-1) and 2009 (3-0). New York had home field advantage each time.

New York lost its last three playoff series as the wild-card (2007 and 1997 vs. Cleveland, 1995 vs. Seattle). Minnesota has lost its last four ALDS series, going 2-12 overall.

Injuries could play a big part this year. Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau (concussion) will miss this series after being out since July 7. Reliever Jon Rauch (knee) could be left off the ALDS roster. The team added closer Matt Capps and left reliever Brian Fuentes in the second half.

New York’s Andy Pettitte had made three starts since missing two months with a back injury. He pitched well in the first one against Baltimore, but struggled in the final two versus Boston (11.05 ERA).

CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) is the Game 1 starter for New York. He’s first in the AL in wins, second in innings pitched (237 2/3) and sixth in strikeouts (197). He’s the favorite for the AL Cy Young award.

The 30-year-old lefty powered the Yankees to a World Series title last year. He was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in five playoff starts. Sabathia allowed one earned run over 6 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS against Minnesota. The Yanks won 7-2 at home.

Sabathia hasn’t faced the Twins this year. He made one start in Minnesota last year and surrendered one earned run over seven innings in a 10-2 win. This is his first start at new Target Field after going 9-5 (4.38 ERA) lifetime at the Metrodome.

Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA) is trying to cap a solid season that’s seen him fully healthy for the first time since 2006. He was 0-3 in his last three starts (8.10 ERA), although two games came after Minnesota had clinched. The MLB odds ‘over’ is 5-0 in his last five outings.

The 26-year-old lefty was 7-5 both home and away, but his ERA was much lower at home (3.11 vs. 4.25).

Liriano had two quality starts (3.46 ERA) in two tries against New York this year, but Minnesota lost both games. The home start was on May 26, allowing two earned runs over seven innings in a 3-2 loss.

Minnesota is 0-4 in Liriano’s last four starts against New York and 1-10 in his last 11 against the AL East.

First pitch on Wednesday is 5:37 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear, starting in the 60s. That’s very fortunate weather for Minneapolis this time of year. This is the franchise’s first outdoor playoff game since 1970.

Former Yankee Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA) will get the start for Game 2 on Thursday night. Either Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) or Phil Hughes 918-8, 4.19 ERA) will go for the visitors.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2010, 05:24 PM

MLB Odds: Phillies heavy chalk for playoffs

That the Philadelphia Phillies enter the 2010 MLB playoffs as the betting favorites is very low on the surprise meter. The Phillies have won the last two NL flags, earned their fourth consecutive NL East title and started the season around five- or six-to-one to win it all. The fact the Phillies are doing it with all they had going against them this season, that is a mild shock and a testament to talent, depth, management in the front office and in the dugout, and plain ol' luck.

Philadelphia hit the final day of play listed as plus 130 chalk at Bookmaker.com to win the Series. The Phils were prohibitive minus 185 faves to become the first team in 66 years to win three straight NL banners. (Complete World Series MLB futures odds appear at the end of this article.)

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

How much managers mean in the big league dugouts is always a debatable point; arguments on both sides have merit. Charlie Manuel's influence in Philadelphia seems beyond argument, however. He's been at the helm of MLB clubs for eight full MLB seasons now and won five division titles, one in Cleveland and the last four years in Philly.

Manuel's roster has been a revolving door with injuries among the position players key to that problem. Jayson Werth and Raul Ibañez are the only players he's had at his disposal the entire season. Ryan Howard missed a little time, but nothing compared to the middle-infield tandem of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Penciled in for 300 games between the pair, Rollins and Utley will combine for about 200 instead.

What steadied the course all season in Philadelphia was the pitching, specifically the good health among the starting rotation that was bolstered by a deadline deal.

Manuel has enjoyed reliable duty all season from Roy Halladay (22-11, 2.44), Cole Hamels (18-14, 3.09) and Kyle Kendrick (17-14, 4.73) who will each make more than 30 starts. Joe Blanton (17-11, 4.74) will finish with 28 starts, Jamie Moyer (9-10, 4.84) made 19 before going down with an injury and a midseason trade brought Roy Oswalt (10-2, 1.65) over from Houston for 12 more. Those six arms will wind up being used for 97 percent of the starting assignments.

Philadelphia came out of the gate in April on fire, winning seven of its first eight games and making MLB bettors following the team at the start very happy with 5.5 units of profit. But the Phillies ended the season's first month on a 5-9 run to turn those smiles upside down.

The club got back on track in May, winning 12 of the first 15 games to build a 5-game lead in the NL East on May 17. Again, struggles followed the positive burst and by June 12 the Phillies were just two games above even (32-30) and 3½-games back in the division behind the Braves and Mets.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Philadelphia came out from the midseason vacation cold, dropping six of seven and falling seven behind Atlanta in the division, still in third place at 48-46. A 2-0, 11-inning win at St. Louis on July 22 as 150 underdogs ended their road trip and served as the turning point. Including that win, Philadelphia was on a 49-18 run entering Sunday's regular season finale.

The Phillies were up 10 units before game 162 at Turner Field. Bettors who followed the team's 'totals' all season had a slight edge if they were on the 'under' (85-73-3).

All signs pointed to the Braves taking the NL wild card when the weekend started. But that was before Atlanta dropped the first two of its series with the Phils and the Padres won the first two of their set in San Francisco.

Should Atlanta take the NL wild card, the Phillies will meet the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS. Those two squads met twice in late-June and just before the All-Star break with Philadelphia winning five of the seven games played.

The Phillies swept all four games played at Citizens Bank Park in July after winning one of three in Cincy. The 'under' was the winner in four of the seven matchups.

If the Braves and Padres both win on the final day, it will set up a three-way, sudden-death playoff between Atlanta, San Diego and San Francisco beginning Monday. The Pads and Giants would meet that day in San Diego to decide the NL West, with the loser traveling to Atlanta for a Tuesday match with the Braves to decide the NL wild card.

TEAM WS ODDS
Phillies +130
Yankees +290
Rays +470
Rangers +475
Reds +1000
Twins +1150
Giants +1200
Braves +1325
Padres +1850

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2010, 05:27 PM

MLB Playoffs Set

The American League Divisional playoffs are set with the four seeds figured out. Tampa Bay owns home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs as the Rays host the AL West champion Rangers. The Yankees, despite a 95-67 record, are the Wild Card champs and will start on the road at Minnesota.

The Rays grabbed four of six regular season meetings from the Rangers, including a three-game sweep at Tropicana Field in mid-August. All three games in St. Pete finished 'over' the total, as the opening contest of that series featured Cliff Lee and David Price on the mound. Tampa Bay went on to win that game, 6-4, as the two southpaw aces are set to start Game 1 of the ALDS at the Trop.

The Yankees and Twins are no strangers to each other in the postseason, as New York swept Minnesota last season in the ALDS. The Bombers closed out the Metrodome with a 4-1 victory in the series clincher, as Target Field will host its first playoff game on Wednesday. Cy Young frontrunner CC Sabathia takes his 21 wins into the series opener against Francisco Liriano, who has dropped three straight decisions. New York captured four of six meetings from Minnesota, including a 2-1 mark at Target Field.

Over in the National League, San Francisco avoided a disastrous situation for Major League Baseball with its victory over San Diego. The Giants wrapped up the NL West title, while Atlanta held on for the Wild Card, as both teams won't have to participate in a play-in game to break any tiebreakers. Instead, the Giants and Braves will meet in the NLDS that begins at AT&T Park on Thursday.

Tim Lincecum received extra rest as the two-time Cy Young Award winner was slated to pitch in Sunday's clincher, but Jonathan Sanchez made the start. Lincecum makes his postseason debut opposite Derek Lowe in Thursday's opener, the first playoff appearance for the Giants since 2003. Atlanta won four of seven meetings against San Francisco this season, as the Giants won two of three at home.

The Phillies will have home-field advantage throughout the World Series as long as they stay alive, seeking their third straight appearance in the Fall Classic. The first hurdle for Philadelphia is the NL Central champion Cincinnati. The Reds are in the postseason for the first time in 15 seasons, as Edinson Volquez takes the ball in the NLDS opener. The Phillies counter with Roy Halladay in Wednesday's Game 1, who makes his first appearance in the playoffs in his illustrious career. Philadelphia finished with a 5-2 mark against Cincinnati this season, including a four-game sweep of the Reds at Citizens Bank Park.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2010, 05:27 PM

Lookin' at the Playoffs

American League

Whereas the New York Yankees clearly loomed as the team to beat at this time a year ago, that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. Although we remain wary of the Bronx Bombers, some of the cracks that appeared in the foundation over the past few weeks, resulting in Joe Girardi’s crew gifting the AL East to the Rays, could continue to haunt the Yanks in October.
Still, what might be the most important factor in the AL postseason equation is the ability of teams to control the Yankees’ left-handed power. Both the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers have two quality southpaws who can neutralize Mark Teixeira and the Yanks’ top-heavy lefty lineup, which means they probably have better chances to defeat the Bombers than they have had in their previous playoff frustrations against the New Yorkers, going back to Texas in the mid ‘90s, and numerous Minnesota postseason failures vs. the New Yorkers over the past decade (2003, ‘04, and ‘09). The Twins get the first crack at the Yanks in the ALDS.

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And some longtime observers believe Minnesota is prepared for a breakthrough vs. the pinstripers, much as the Kansas City Royals, after three gut-wrenching ALCS losses to the Billy Martin-Bob Lemon Yankees in 1976-77-78, bounced back to sweep the Bronx Bombers in 1980. New York’s current vulnerability appears to be with its starting pitching; once past CC Sabathia, can Girardi really count upon the sliding Philip Hughes, or expect to squeeze more playoff innings out of the aging Andy Pettite? A.J. Burnett (1-5 with a 7.09 ERA since August 20) doesn’t seem to be a viable option at the moment. And New York, just 29-30 since August 1, is not riding much of an updraft into the postseason.

The Twins might finally have the balance necessary to beat the Yankee power and depth, because they run the bases well, have become far more patient at the plate, play the usual superb defense, and can deploy lefties Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing. Although Minnesota did not play well after clinching the AL Central (just 2-8), at least no one else was injured down the stretch; 1B Justin Morneau, out since early July with post-concussion syndrome, looks to be the only missing piece for the playoff roster. The Twins’ problem is short relief, especially if Jon Rauch’s balky knee continues acting up; Matt Capps is not someone you want facing Yankee power in the Bronx with a one-run lead.

The Rangers, with their southpaw aces Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, might also like their chances in a short series vs. the Yankees, but they first must overcome the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Like the Yankees, Texas was also not exactly flying down the stretch, and is crossing its fingers that recent casualties Josh Hamilton (returned last weekend from rib injury) and David Murphy (groin) will be ready to contribute. Although Hamilton, Murphy, Michael Young, and inspired DH pickup Vlad Guerrero posted impressive numbers this season, the lineup has a tendency to chase pitches, which can often haunt in the postseason. And other than Lee and set-up man Darren Oliver (who may or may not be on the postseason roster), no one on the staff has any playoff experience.

Tampa Bay might be built for a postseason run similar to its World Series appearance two years ago, thanks in part to a bullpen that was much more reliable than past seasons due to the presence of ex-Brave closer Rafael Soriano and a stable of effective set-up artists. As usual, base running and defense featuring the electric Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria (both on their way to Cooperstown?) might have to compensate for human wind machines such as 1B Carlos Pena and OF B.J. Upton, who struck out more than 300 times between them. Still, the Rays are healthy and confident, and something tells us this dynamic bunch is going to be the team to beat in the AL.

National League

Unlike the AL, where the Yankees appear vulnerable, the Philadelphia Phillies enter the NL half of the playoffs as the clear team to beat as they look for a third straight pennant. Yet there is a team in the senior circuit that neither the Phils, their NLDS foe Cincinnati Reds, nor the wild card Atlanta Braves (who don’t have much choice) particularly want to see in October.

Indeed, the San Francisco Giants appear to be a potentially scary foe in a short series. As long, that is, as their sterling starting pitching produces as it has over the past month. With starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain back in a nice groove down the stretch, Jonathan Sanchez spinning an ERA of around 1.00 in September, and young Madison Bumgarner continuing to impress, Bruce Bochy might not even need risking Barry Zito in the postseason rotation. With an NL-best 3.41 ERA, and a deep bullpen that can bridge to dominating closer Brian Wilson, the Giants can pitch their way to their first World Series since 2002. Meanwhile, the consistent stick of 1B Aubrey Huff in the middle of the batting order, the explosive debut of rookie phenom C Buster Posey, plus veteran additions such as 2B Freddy Sanchez and OFs Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, have given the Giants a more functional lineup than in the recent past. Other NL contenders have been forewarned.

Of course, the Phils are going to believe they can match the Giants at the top of the rotation, with trade-deadline acquisition Roy Oswalt joining Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels as the only starting trio each with sub-3.10 ERAs. And a potential weak link, closer Brad Lidge, has settled down since early August, converting his last 10 save opportunities. Once healthy, the Phils (who missed Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins for big portions of the season) roared down the stretch to run away with the NL East flag. It’s going to take a team with pitching like the Giants to slow them down.

We’re not sure it can be the Reds, who get the first crack at the Phils in the NLDS after losing 5 of 7 vs. Philly in the regular season. Skipper Dusty Baker has already announced that he’ll be using an all-righty rotation (Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto) in the first round. Arroyo is the only one of that trio with postseason experience, and Baker will hope that putting the wily Arroyo between the harder-throwing Volquez and Cueto will keep opponents off balance. But many suspect the Reds were built better for the long haul, with a solid infield defense featuring 9 Gold Gloves and anchored by 3B Scott Rolen, and a ground-covering group of outfielders, than a short series during which the staff, without much postseason experience and still with some questions in the bullpen (closer Coco Cordero blew 8 saves this year), might prove their undoing. Baker will surely need a big October from 1B Joey Votto, who might be up to it after posting MVP-type numbers (37 HR, 112 RBI, .323 BA).

It would be a nice story if the Braves, in manager Bobby Cox’s farewell, can make a deep run, but indifferent form over the past two months suggests that is unlikely. Most of Cox’s likely starting pitching options (Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens) performed better earlier in the year than down the stretch. And with Chipper Jones injured, the Braves often went into extended funks at the plate, with midseason pickup Derrek Lee and rookie RF Jason Heyward eventually forced to carry the run-producing burden.

Neither the Braves nor the Reds appear to be the NL team to KO the Phils. The Giants, however, might have what it takes.

**Kaptain** · 10-04-2010, 07:13 PM

thanks for the info BUM....take care

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 02:29 PM

MLB Odds: NLDS betting trends and angles

The Philadelphia Phillies are minus 270 MLB odds favorites in their best-of-five National League Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds for several good reasons. There aren’t as many quality explanations for the San Francisco Giants opening as slim 155 favorites in their NLDS with the wild-card Atlanta Braves.

Betting trends and angles for both series appear below.

Philadelphia Phillies versus Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies captured five of the seven regular-season games against the Reds, including a four-game sweep at Philadelphia from July 8-11. The last two games of that series saw the Phils register back-to-back 1-0 shutout victories. That helped the ‘under’ cash in four of the last five series matchups.

Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay were on the hill for the Phils in those back-to-back whitewashes.

The Reds took two of three from the Phils during a three-game series in Cincinnati during the last week of June. Aaron Harang, who will be pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs, got the better of Halladay in the finale of that series as a 142 home underdog, 4-3.

The Reds closed as MLB betting underdogs four times during the seven-game regular season series.

Philadelphia is 52-29 at home and 45-36 on the road, with the ‘under’ going 85-74-3 overall. The club is 12-3 in its last 15 home playoff games and a remarkable 49-19 in its last 68 overall outings.

The Phillies finished the season strong, going a major league-best 21-6 in September. Some of the success was due to a pitching staff that allowed three runs or less 12 times. However, most of the victories during that 27-game stretch can be attributed to a Philadelphia offense that averaged 5.6 runs per game.

The strong finish enabled the Phils to garner home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and choose an eight-day format for their NLDS match. That eight-day schedule works to the Phils’ advantage because it allows them to go with a menacing three-man rotation of Halladay, Hamels and Roy Oswalt without having any of the hurlers pitch on short rest.

The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 road encounters, which lowered their overall road mark to a respectable 42-39. They are also 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Nevertheless, the Reds lead the National League in batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto ended the regular campaign hitting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. Additionally, the Reds are hitting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.

San Francisco Giants versus Atlanta Braves

The San Francisco Giants are 155 MLB odds favorites against the Braves despite dropping four of the seven regular season meetings and hitting just .197 against Atlanta pitching.

The Braves captured three of four games in the most recent series during the first week in August. Atlanta recorded victories of 3-2, 3-0 and 6-3, while the Giants registered a 3-2 extra inning win in the second game of that series to avoid getting swept. Three of those four games dipped ‘under’ the closing total.

San Francisco took two contests of a three-game series in April at AT&T Park. The club sneaked out a 5-4 extra inning victory in the opener, and then captured the finale 6-3. The Braves came out on top in the middle game, 7-2. The ‘over’ cashed twice, with one ‘push.’

The Braves closed as a favorite in five of the seven series matches.

Hitting might be a problem for both teams. The Braves will be playing without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, two batters who had hit third in the lineup during the course of the season and who suffered season-ending injuries.

The Giants must hope Buster Posey finds his hitting stroke. The rookie catcher finished the campaign in a 6-for-42 (.143) hitting funk.

Atlanta had the best home record in baseball at 56-25, but was just 35-46 on the road. Bobby Cox’s troops are 63-44 against right-handed starters, but just 28-27 versus southpaws. The Braves are 8-7 in extra inning games and 23-22 in one-run affairs. They own a plus-109 run differential by outscoring the opposition, 738-629.

San Francisco is 49-32 at home, 43-38 on the road, 68-50 against right-handed starters and 24-20 versus southpaws. The Giants are 11-8 in extra innings and 28-24 in one-run contests.

The Giants’ 583 runs allowed is the second fewest in baseball, which helped them register a plus-104 run differential (697-583).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 10:18 PM

NLDS Odds: Reds and Phillies lock horns

Very few MLB betting fans are giving the Cincinnati Reds much of a chance of knocking off the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the MLB postseason, and perhaps with good reason. The Phillies are the only team in the playoffs on either side of the draw that really comes into the second season on fire, and they clearly have the superior pitching staff to work with as well.

That immediately becomes apparently in Game 1 of MLB postseason betting action, as the men from the City of Brotherly Love will trot RHP Roy Halladay to the mound against RHP Edinson Volquez for the Reds.

There's clearly nothing odd about manager Charlie Manuel electing to throw Halladay in Game 1, as this is the same sort of situation he found himself in last year with LHP Cliff Lee, who is now throwing for the Texas Rangers. Halladay won 21 games this year and might be the winner of the Cy Young Award. His 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP were both outstanding, and he has clearly been an innings eater after throwing 250.2 frames in the regular season.

Volquez has only started 21 games over the last two seasons for the Reds due to some arm problems, but manager Dusty Baker feels as though the Volq Man gives his team the best chance to sneak out of Philly with a win in Game 1. Volquez has been hot, as his ERA is just 1.95 over his last four starts, and he has 31 strikeouts to show for 27 2/3 innings worth of work.

Volquez is 2-0 with a 0.73 lifetime ERA in two starts against the Phillies.

Top NLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Halladay is just 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four starts against the Reds.
Halladay is probably going to have to pitch the Phils to quite the advantage to feel safe in this game, as it has been a disturbing MLB trend in recent seasons for the bullpen to blow what the starters began. Neither Brad Lidge nor Ryan Madson give fans in the City of Brotherly Love any faith whatsoever, as both choked in the postseason at times last year and neither was anywhere near stellar in the regular season. In fact, no one in Philadelphia's bullpen has an ERA of less than 2.50.

For the Reds, the key is going to be getting at least a few hits off of Halladay and extending at bats to try to raise his seemingly Ironman-esque pitch count. This is a patient lineup with a ton of hitters that will work deep into counts. Four men had at least 50 walks on the season, which helps counter the fact that four had at least 100 strikeouts as well.

Though a lot of the accolades on this team go to 1B Joey Votto, and deservedly so, few realize that the regular lineup that is trotted out by Baker on a regular basis features six men that are batting at least .260.

In the regular season, the home team captured six of the seven meetings. That MLB trend has held true dating back to last July. Hosts have conquered the MLB money lines in eight of the last nine as well. Philadelphia is 9-3 in its last 12 against the Reds, including going 5-2 this season.

This is the first postseason appearance for the Reds in well over a decade, whereas it is old hat for the Phils. Philly is 12-3 in its last 15 playoff games played at Citizens Bank Park.

The MLB oddsmakers are going to punish you to take the Phillies on Wednesday afternoon, though. They are minus 200 choices at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while the 'total' has been set at a very low seven.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 10:31 PM

MLB PLAYOFFS:

Wednesday, October 6Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 1:37 PM ET Tampa Bay -128 500 *****
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500 *****

Cincinnati - 5:07 PM ET Cincinnati +187 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7 500 *****

NY Yankees - 8:37 PM ET Minnesota +137 500 *****
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 03:04 PM

Phillies heavy favorites in Game 1 with Halladay

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI REDS (91-71)
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (97-65)

NLDS Game 1 – Wednesday, 5:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -205, Cincinnati +187 Total: 7

Hoping to pull off a big Game 1 upset, Cincinnati turns to Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA) in the series opener. The Reds, making their first playoff appearance since 1995, have had little success in Philadelphia lately, losing all four games played at Citizens Bank Park this year and are just 2-10 in Philly over the past three seasons. Volquez has been effective recently, going 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his past three starts. He has struggled mightily on the road this year, racking up an ERA of 6.08 and a 1.86 WHIP in five starts away from home. He’s faced the Phillies twice in his career, both starts coming in 2008. Volquez went 2-0 in those games with an ERA of 0.73 (12.1 IP, 1 ER).

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA) will get the nod for the Phillies. Halladay is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts, which includes a complete-game, two-hit shutout of Washington in his final regular-season appearance. He also threw a complete-game shutout against Cincinnati when he last faced the Reds on July 10 of this year. He was touched for four runs and allowed a season-high 13 runs in his only other start against the Cincinnati this year, a 4-3 Reds win.

The FoxSheets trend points toward a Philadelphia series-opening victory:

Play Against - Road teams (CINCINNATI) - where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (365-203 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.3%, +99.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 03:25 PM

Wednesday Divisional Tips

The road to the Fall Classic begins on Wednesday with a trio of games to get the baseball postseason underway. Two aces that were solid throughout last year's postseason will start on the road, while the Phillies look for their third straight World Series appearance. We'll being at Tropicana Field as the Rays seek their second pennant run in three seasons when they host the Rangers.

Rangers at Rays - 1:35 PM EST

A pair of division winners meets up in this ALDS matchup as Texas makes its first appearance in the postseason since 1999. The Rangers wrapped up the AL West by easily winning the division by nine games, finishing at 90-72. The Rays clinched their second-ever AL East title when the Yankees lost on Sunday at Fenway Park, as Tampa Bay will have home-field advantage until the World Series.

David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA) may fall short of the AL Cy Young Award, but the southpaw has anchored this Tampa Bay staff to its second-best record in franchise history (96-66). Price finished off a fantastic season with a strong September, as Tampa Bay went 6-0 in his six starts, while allowing eight earned runs. The former Vanderbilt star was lights-out at home, compiling a 9-2 record to go along with a 1.96 ERA. Price received a no-decision in his only start against the Rangers this season, giving up five hits and two earned runs in six innings of a 6-4 victory.

The opposing pitcher in that game was Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA), who allowed six earned runs in seven innings, while taking the loss. Lee's numbers have taken a hit since his trade from Seattle to Texas in July, as the Rangers are 6-9 in his 15 starts with only seven quality outings. That number worsens on the road, with Texas going 2-6 in Lee's eight starts on the highway, a stark contrast to the 5-2 away mark with Seattle.

Tampa Bay beat Texas four of six times this season, including all three meetings at the Trop. The 'over' was a profitable play, hitting five times, as the winning team scored at least six runs in each meeting. The Rays are listed as a $1.50 favorite to claim the series, while the Rangers sit at a $1.30 underdog to advance to the ALCS.

Reds at Phillies - 5:05 PM EST

Philadelphia attempts to win its third consecutive pennant as Cincinnati is the first hurdle for the Phillies to jump in that quest. The Reds comfortably won the NL Central with a 91-71 mark, topped off by a 27-19 run after getting swept by the Cardinals in mid-August. The Phillies went on a 27-8 spurt since late August to take firm control of the NL East, winning the division by six games over the Braves.

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA) makes his postseason debut for the Phillies, coming off the third 20-win season of his career. Halladay ended the regular season with a complete-game shutout of the Nationals, ending a streak of six straight starts in which he allowed at least three earned runs. The right-hander had two vastly different outings against Cincinnati this season, as he shut out the Reds at home in a five-hit effort on July 10 in a 1-0 victory. In Halladay's only start at the Great American Ballpark, he allowed a season-high 13 hits, but struck out 10 in a 4-3 defeat as $1.50 favorite.

The Reds counter with Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA), who also makes his first appearance in the playoffs. Volquez is two seasons removed from a 17-6 campaign, in which the righty made the National League All-Star team. Tommy John surgery sidelined Volquez for a year and a half, but he rebounded in the last three months as Cincinnati went 9-3 in his 12 starts. Since allowing five earned runs in 0.2 innings at San Francisco on August 23, Volquez has yielded six earned runs in his last four outings, while leading Cincinnati to a 3-1 record in that span.

The Phillies won five of seven meetings against the Reds this season, while sweeping a four-game set from Cincinnati at Citizens Bank Park in July. Four of the seven games were decided by one run, including three in Philadelphia. The Phillies are by far the biggest favorite to claim an opening round series, listed as nearly $3.00 'chalk' to advance to the NLCS. If you want a potentially nice payout, you can side with the Reds to win this series by laying $1.00 to win $2.40.

Yankees at Twins - 8:35 PM EST

The reigning World Series champions begin on their road as the Bombers play the first playoff game ever at Target Field against the Twins. Minnesota's huge second half without Justin Morneau showed what kind of depth the Twins have offensively, as Ron Gardenhire's team is in the postseason for the second straight season. The only problem is they run into the Yankees again, who eliminated Minnesota in a three-game sweep in 2009.

Cy Young frontrunner CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) looks to duplicate last season's postseason success in which the southpaw finished 3-1 in five starts. Sabathia has saved his best pitching for August and beyond since donning the pinstripes last season, as New York is 23-6 in his post-August outings. The former Indian and Brewer hasn't faced the Twins this season, but has beaten Minnesota six straight times dating back to 2007.

The Twins send out Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA), who has saved his worst pitching for now. The Minnesota lefty is 0-3 in his last three starts with an ERA of 8.10. Liriano owns a solid ERA at Target Field (3.11), but the Twins are just 9-7 in his 16 home starts. The 26-year old hasn't beaten the Yankees in four career starts, including a pair of defeats this season.

The Yankees have owned the Twins in the past, claiming 14 of the last 16 meetings since the start of the 2008 season. New York went 4-2 against Minnesota this season, while winning a pair of one-run contests at Target Field. Despite being the Wild Card squad and starting the series on the road, the Yankees are a $1.80 favorite to win this ALDS. The Twins are a solid $1.60 takeback with the home-field advantage to capture this best-of-five series.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-07-2010, 05:47 PM

Thursday, October 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas 6 Bot 9 Texas +112 500
Tampa Bay 0 Under 8 500

NY Yankees - 6:00 PM ET Minnesota +110 500 *****
Minnesota - Over 9 500 *****

Atlanta - 9:30 PM ET San Francisco -153 500 *****
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 10-07-2010, 06:19 PM

Giants are heavy Game 1 favorites over Braves

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA BRAVES (91-71)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (92-70)

NLDS Game 1, Thursday 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -155, Atlanta +145 Total: 6.5

The last Game 1 on the docket pits Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) and the Braves against Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) and the Giants. Lowe finished the regular season on fire, winning his final five starts and not allowing more than two runs in any of those outings. He was 2-0 in two starts against the Giants this year, combining to go 11.1 innings and giving up just three runs and nine hits. Lowe is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA in his career against San Francisco.

Lincecum also comes in hot, with a 2-1 record and a 1.80 ERA over his past three starts. He has won five of his past six outings and has struck out 52 batters over that span. Lincecum took the loss against the Braves on August 5, going 6.1 innings and giving up three runs on six hits, including two home runs. He fared better against Atlanta back in April, surrendering two runs over seven innings and picking up the win in his second start of the year. In eight career games against the Braves, Lincecum is 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Atlanta earned a much-needed win over Philadelphia to make the playoffs, and the FoxSheets think that game might take a toll on the Braves in Game 1:

Play Against - Road teams (ATLANTA) - off a one-run win over a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (149-86 since 1997.) (63.4%, +62.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-08-2010, 05:15 PM

Record for the playoffs:

5-7-0 41.67% -1230

Friday, October 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 6:00 PM ET Philadelphia -193 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7 500 *****

Atlanta - 9:30 PM ET San Francisco -136 500 *****
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500*****

Good Luck !

**Dat Boi E** · 10-08-2010, 05:34 PM

good luck tonight, Star!

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