NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (10/10 - 10/11) + My BEST BETS !

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McFadden will not play against Chargers

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-2)
at OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -6, Total: 45

San Diego looks for its 14th straight victory over the Raiders when the AFC West foes meet in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Both teams will likely take to the air with their top running backs injured. San Diego rookie Ryan Mathews is still not fully healed from an ankle injury and Mike Tolbert will continue to get the majority of carries. Raiders top RB Darren McFadden will not play Week 5 due to a hamstring ailment, allowing Michael Bush to get more involved in the offense.

******* take:
Mathews only has 14 carries in the past three weeks, and he didn’t even play Week 3 at Seattle. He has rushed the ball pretty well (4.7 YPC), but lost two fumbles already. San Diego can afford to take its time with Mathews because Tolbert has played so well. He has 281 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC, including a 16-carry, 100-yard performance last week against Arizona. Tolbert should continue his success against an Oakland defense ranking second-to-last in the NFL with 162 rushing YPG allowed.

McFadden has been the Raiders’ only consistent offensive performer, ranking tied for 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards (392) and adding another 162 yards on the receiving end. Bush, who has already missed two games due to a thumb injury, has just 10 carries for 53 yards this year and a strong 4.7 YPC average in his career.

The Chargers have outscored the Raiders by 14.4 PPG during their 13-game win streak. These FoxSheets trends shows why San Diego is the pick here.

SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.6, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 1*).

OAKLAND is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 15.9, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also like the Over in this one:

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (29-7 since 1983.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*).

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Jahvid Best questionable to play vs. Rams

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ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-2)
at DETROIT LIONS (0-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Detroit -3, Total: 42.5

The Lions try to get in the win column when they host St. Louis on Sunday. The Rams have already doubled their win total from last season and Detroit is 2-35 in its last 37 games dating back to 2007. The Lions are favored by a field goal, but they still have some major injury issues. QB Matthew Stafford is still out with a shoulder injury, TE Tony Scheffler is questionable after suffering a concussion and WR Nate Burleson is expected to play Sunday, despite being limited in practice by an ankle injury. But the biggest injury news is that RB Jahvid Best is still hampered by a turf toe and is listed as questionable.

******* take:
The Lions don’t have enough productive offensive players on their roster to suffer all these losses. Best has nearly 60 percent of his team’s carries this season (50 of 87) and nobody else on the team has more than a dozen rushing attempts this year. If Best can’t go, the carries would fall to Kevin Smith (3 rush, 12 yds) and fullback Jerome Felton (5 rush, 18 yds). Although the Rams rushing defense isn’t great (116 rush YPG, 20th in NFL), they shouldn’t have much problem stopping Smith or Felton. The one big weapon the Lions have healthy is Calvin Johnson, who caught six passes for 86 yards and two scores last week. Expect Detroit to keep chucking the pigskin. QB Shaun Hill has thrown 142 passes in the past three games, but six of those have been intercepted.

These teams have played four times since 2001, with the Rams taking three of the four games (SU and ATS) including two wins at Detroit. Last year, St. Louis got its only win of the season against Detroit (17-10) as Steven Jackson rushed for 149 yards and a game-winning TD. But this FoxSheets trend likes Detroit to get its revenge, and more importantly, its first win of the season.

Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. (25-4 since 1983.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 3*).

This FoxSheets stat favors the Under.

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (96-45 since 1983.) (68.1%, +46.5 units. Rating = 3*).

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Unbeaten Chiefs are 7-point underdog at Indy

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-0)
at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Indianapolis -7, Total: 45

The Chiefs are the only unbeaten team left in the NFL, but they will certainly be tested Sunday at Indianapolis. Kansas City crushed San Francisco 31-10 in Week 3 before resting with a bye. Indianapolis lost a 31-28 heart-breaker at Jacksonville last week when Josh Scobee won the game at the buzzer with a 59-yard field goal.

Kansas City’s defense has been excellent, holding each of its first three opponents to 14 points or less. The Chiefs limited their last two opponents to just 275 YPG including a measly 58 rushing YPG. The offense has played pretty well too, ranking third in the NFL with 161 rushing YPG. Jamal Charles (79 rush YPG) and Thomas Jones (72 rush YPG) have done a great job splitting carries this year. QB Matt Cassel was very efficient against the 49ers last game with 250 passing yards, three touchdowns and just one interception.

Despite the two losses, Peyton Manning has been amazing. He has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1,365 yards, 11 TD and just 1 INT. It’s the running game that has had problems, gaining a total of just 102 yards in its two losses and ranking 29th in the NFL with 76 rush YPG. Indy also ranks 29th in rushing defense, surrendering 150 rush YPG.

The Colts are 7-2 ATS in the series since 1992. This FoxSheets trend shows that the Chiefs upset run is likely to end, making Indianapolis the pick.

Play Against - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. (49-22 since 1983.) (69%, +24.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also think the game will be high scoring.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home blowout win by 21 points or more, undefeated on the season. (22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*).

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Total Talk - Week 5

Week 4 Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 10-4-2 in Week 1, total players have seen the ‘over’ prevail in the last three weeks, including an 8-6 mark last weekend. With a quarter of the regular season in the books, the ‘over/under’ on the season stands at 30-30-2.

Are the numbers too short? Or perhaps the offensive schemes are starting to click? Either way, make a note that there were three games with totals of 37 or less in Week 4 and the ‘over’ produced a 2-1 record in those contests. Gamblers have four battles to handicap with numbers of 38 ½ or less this week, with the Chicago-Carolina (33) matchup listed as the lowest.

Once again four teams will be off this weekend, with the Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers and Seahawks on bye. And of this quartet, ‘over’ players don’t have the opportunity to keep banging New England this week, who is the only team to see all four of its games climb ‘over’ the number.

Non-Divisional Matchups

The AFC West battle between the Chargers and Raiders is the lone divisional matchup on the board this week, which leaves us with 13 matchups that don’t have much head-to-head history to analyze. However, VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence has some nice situational trends in Week 5.

Cleveland’s last nine matchups against the NFC South have gone ‘under’ the number, including its Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay (14-17), which had a total of 37. This week, the Falcons head to Ohio and the total is hovering around 40 points, which is the highest ‘over/under’ the Browns have seen this season. And Mr. Lawrence has an extra tightner on this game with Atlanta, who has seen the ‘under’ go 9-0 in its last nine battles as a non-division road favorite.

Another contest that has great non-divisional trends toward the ‘under’ is between Green Bay and Washington. The Packers have watched the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine encounters against NFC East foes, which includes a 27-20 win at Philadelphia in Week 1, which barely slid ‘under’ the closing number of 47 ½. And at the same time, the Redskins have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine battles versus foes from the NFC North. This line has been back and forth between 44 and 45 all week and could close higher come kickoff. The Packers have shown the ability to move the ball and score (26.5 PPG) but the same cannot be said for the ‘Skins. One stat that makes this writer worry about Washington is its third-down conversion rate of 25 percent, which is the second-worst in the league.

Lawrence has also provided us with a weekly game trend, which is pretty strong for the Titans-Cowboys showdown. Over the last five seasons, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in its fifth game. And, Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its fourth game over the past eight seasons. The ‘Boys are off the bye week and their offense (18 PPG) hasn’t been strong even though the yardage (391 YPG) has been compiled. On the other hand, Tennessee has managed to average 24.5 PPG, while only posting 285.5 YPG, which is ranked 27th in the league. The ‘over/under’ is 42.

Bye Trends from ML


Kansas City has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in its last six after the bye
Minnesota has seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 in its last 12 after the bye
Baltimore has seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 in its last 11 before the bye
Arizona has seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in its last seven before the bye
Carolina has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight before the bye
Under the Lights

The Giants defeated the Bears 17-3 in a snooze-fest on Sunday Night and the combined 20 points never threatened the closing number of 44. Then on Monday Night Football, it looked liked déjà vu all over again as Miami led New England 7-6 after the first 30 minutes. Sure enough, the Patriots put up a 35-point second-half and coasted to a 41-14 victory with the help of some great special teams and defensive scores. Most outfits closed the total at 48 ½.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: If there was ever a more difficult game to handicap from a side and total perspective, this could be it. Seriously, how do you pick the Eagles on the road (2-2) with Kevin Kolb at QB? At the same time, can you back QB Alex Smith and the 49ers (0-4) at home off an awful loss? That’s why we look at the total and it’s on the key number of 38 and we just might see a 21-17 or 24-14 final too. Even though the club has only played one home game, the 49ers have looked bad with Smith under center. And the Eagles haven’t shown much when Kolb has been on the field either. Historically, the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six in this series, plus the Eagles have lit up the scoreboard for 40, 38 and 38 in their last three trips to San Francisco. Can Kolb and company keep those trends rolling?

Minnesota at N.Y. Jets: You could make a case that every game on MNF should’ve gone ‘under’ this season, if it wasn’t for last week’s results and the Week 2 contest between New Orleans and San Francisco. Bettors playing first-half ‘under’ tickets have steamrolled their way to a 5-0 mark, and the second-half ‘under’ has gone 3-2 as well, with the two losers going to the aforementioned outcomes.

This week, we head to New York as the Vikings and Jets close Week 5. A lot of big-play guys will be on the field for both sides, yet the total is still low (39). You do have two solid defensive clubs matching up, but that could create short tracks and decent field position for each team. New York struggled in its Week 1 loss to Baltimore (9-10) but has since put up 28, 31 and 38 points during its three-game winning streak, all ‘over’ winners too.

On the other side of the field is Minnesota, who has watched the ‘under’ cash in all three of its games this season. QB Brett Favre and the offense (14.3 PPG) aren’t clicking at all but some feel the acquisition of WR Randy Moss will help spread the field. Despite the slow start, the defense (12.7 PPG, 276.3 YPG) has been nasty albeit against a struggling Saints squad, an inconsistent Dolphins offense (who scored a defensive TD against Minny), and a Lions team without Matthew Stafford.

What happens when a strong rested defense meets a red-hot offense? More often than not, the defense wins.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 5

Buccaneers at Bengals - The Buccaneers is 9-0 ATS (15.7 ppg) since October 13, 1996 when they lost by 21+ last game on normal rest. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since October 05, 2003 after playing on the road versus the Browns. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since December 22, 2002 at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 10, 1989 as a 7+ favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 8-0-1 OU (14.1 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog the week after their bye. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-9.6 ppg) since December 02, 2001 after playing on the road versus the Browns. The Bengals are 0-6 OU (-10.7 ppg) since October 22, 2006 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week.

Jaguars at Bills - The Jaguars are 0-12-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since December 19, 1999 when their game went over by 10+ points last game and the total was at least 40.5. The Bills are 0-7 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since October 15, 2000 as a favorite the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Bills are 6-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since October 20, 2002 when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The League is 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since September 27, 2009 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Bills are 7-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.

Falcons at Browns - The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Browns are 10-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 18, 2005 as a dog when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since September 22, 2002 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents. The Falcons are 0-7 OU (-5.5 ppg) since December 02, 2001 the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-8.0 ppg) since October 18, 1992 within 3 of pick at home after playing at home as a dog.

Saints at Cardinals - The Saints are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 06, 2009 after playing as a favorite. The Saints are 6-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 20, 2005 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 24, 2005 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (15.6 ppg) since October 12, 2003 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.

Chiefs at Colts - Teams are 9-0 ATS since 2008 when they allowed 10+ points less than expecte before a bye last week. The Colts are 0-7 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since October 29, 1995 as a 7+ favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Colts are 0-6 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 when they lost 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Colts are 0-8 OU (-11.6 ppg) since November 25, 2004 when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Titans at Cowboys - The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since November 5, 2000 when they committed 10+ penalties last week and were up after three quarters. The League is 0-9 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since November 04, 2007 as a road dog the week before playing on Monday Night on the road. The Titans are 0-8 ATS (-20.9 ppg) since November 23, 2008 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-21.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since November 11, 1993 when they were tied at the end of the first quarter last game and went on to cover by at least 14 points.

Eagles at 49ers - The Eagles are 6-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since September 24, 2000 within 3 of pick on the road when they lost 1-3 points last week. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 15, 2007 at home versus any team with more wins. The Eagles are 9-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 8-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 26, 2006 on the road after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 8-0-1 OU (8.9 ppg) since September 14, 1997 as a home favorite after playing on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games.

Rams at Lions - The Rams are 11-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) when they covered by 14+ points last game on normal rest. The Lions are 0-9-1 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since November 10, 1991 as a favorite after playing on the road as a TD+ dog. The Rams are 7-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since December 27, 1998 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since November 04, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 6-0 OU (15.5 ppg) since October 09, 2005 as a home favorite after a straight up loss.

Bears at Panthers - The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 04, 1995 within 3 of pick on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS (10.2 ppg) since November 19, 2006 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins. The Panthers are 12-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since October 15, 1995 when they covered by at least a TD last week with 28 minutes of possession time or fewer. The Panthers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 15, 1995 within 3 of pick at home after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 22, 2007 when their dps was negative in their last two games. The League is 13-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 02, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. The Bears are 0-8-2 OU (-8.7 ppg) since December 10, 1995 as a favorite the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road. The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-8.2 ppg) since December 21, 2003 at home when their dps was negative in their last two games.

Chargers at Raiders - The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 14, 1993 as a favorite when they are 500 after a straight up win. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 10, 1989 on the road the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The Raiders are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Raiders are 8-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 as a dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.

Broncos at Ravens - The Broncos are 9-0-2 ATS (9.2 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a home favorite when they won by 1-3 points last week. The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-7.1 ppg) since December 07, 2008 as a favorite after a straight up win. The Broncos are 0-6 OU (-6.8 ppg) since November 24, 1991 on the road after a straight up win on the road as a dog.

Packers at Redskins - The Packers are 10-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 01, 1997 the week after a straight up win in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties. The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins, after a straight up win at home. The League is 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since September 27, 2009 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Redskins are 0-6 OU (-5.2 ppg) since October 16, 1994 as a dog the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.

Giants at Texans - The Giants are 8-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since October 24, 1999 when they are 500 after a straight up win at home. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 03, 2006 the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 OU (17.1 ppg) since September 20, 2009 as a dog. The Texans are 8-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their completion percentage decreased in each of their last two games.

Vikings at Jets - The Vikings are 0-9 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since December 05, 2004 on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Jets are 0-9 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since October 03, 1993 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 14, 2007 at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The Vikings are 9-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since October 06, 1991 on the road when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Jets are 0-6-1 OU (-9.6 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a favorite when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves

I can’t help but think about what happened last year as a result of an over-reaction by the sports books when they were getting hammered by the favorites and bad teams were being picked on making the spreads much higher than ratings said they should be. The books had to something because it wasn’t fun getting second-guessed by the suits upstairs who demanded something be done.
I can remember a few years ago where there was a mini-run going by the players and a GM once said with a straight face, “just add on four-points to each game,” as if that would solve all the issues with something as simple as that like, “why didn’t I think of that.”

Well, there are methods used in adjusting ratings for the NFL that stay pretty consistent year after year. Sometimes, you have to over adjust if the situation arises like the dramatics of the 2009 season, but for the most part, the standard philosophy of being conservative with an initial line and moving the lines as action dictates has been pretty sound.

When I look at few ratings this week and see how drastically they changed from one week to the next, I can’t help but feel there is a huge over reaction to the underdogs right now. True, the dogs are 35-23-3 against the spread through four weeks, but the books are making money and subtle changes probably shouldn’t be made to a booking philosophy if not needed. Some books have shaded to a side, but not many really want be out there as the “Cowboy” among all the books opting to stay with the market line.

There are two games that stand out the most this week where the ratings don’t match the spreads and appear to have a major over reaction to what happened in each of their last games.

Prior to the Colts loss at Jacksonville last week, the Colts were looking to be 10-point home favorites over the Chiefs this Sunday. Most books opened the Colts either -9 or -8 and the line has dropped to -7 due to bettors taking the Chiefs at perceived value in this new day and age where all the ‘dogs cover.

The books were correct in dropping the initial line and saved them some moves and early liability down the ladder on the way to -7, but could the perception of the Chiefs backers be false. The Colts have only had one home game thus far and dominated the Giants 38-14. In their two road losses, the Texans and Jaguars had to play nearly flawless to come away with a victory. And neither one of those teams could truly stop QB Peyton Manning and there really is nothing to suggest that the Colts are any worse than before they lost at Jacksonville, not to mention the Chiefs had a bye which essentially stops all their momentum of a winning attitude from their first three games as outright underdog winners.

I thought I’d never say this about the Colts, the most public team of the last decade, but there is real value in laying only 7-points with them this week.

The other part of the equation is the dramatic switch in ratings based on the Bills getting whacked the by Jets 38-14, arguable the best team in football right now. Because of Jacksonville’s inspired play at home last week, we have almost a four-point swing in this game from what it would have been and what it is. The Bills would have been 3-point favorites in their home game against the Jaguars had the results of last week not occurred. When the books opened for business on Week 5 action, Jacksonville was a 1-point favorite.

Granted, Jacksonville beating the Colts was a quality win, but the Bills losing at the Jets can also be a quality loss with not much shame in losing to one of the most fluid teams on both sides of the ball in the NFL. I believe we’ll see the Bills team closer to the one that was able to move the ball at home against the Patriots and we’ll see a Jaguars team that is closer to the one who got buried on the road at San Diego and imploded at home to the Eagles.

The Bills are currently are minus-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book while everyone else has the Jaguars either pick’em or -1.

It’s a tough sell jumping on a 0-4 teams’ bandwagon, but I’ll be on the Bills as they circle the wagons and also ride the value of the Colts to a nice blowout win.

NFL Line Moves

Other than the Chiefs and Jaguars, it’s been relatively quiet. Caution is plenty abound with the Eagles and QB Kevin Kolb playing the winless 49ers and who knows what to think of the Bears playing with signal caller Todd Collins against rookie gun slinger Jimmy Clausen at Carolina.

The 49ers are 3-point favorites over the Eagles, a line that would have been Eagles -2 had Michael Vick not been injured or Nate Clements fumbled late against the Falcons. The Panthers are currently 1½ -point favorites at the Hilton in a game that figures to be ugly, which is why the total is posted at 33.

The Saints opened as 7-point favorites at Arizona, but once Max Hall was announced as the Cardinals starting quarterback, the line dropped a half-point. It wasn’t just Hall, there's no difference in the rating between he and Derek Anderson. Bettors actually took the Cardinals against what looks to be a lucky Saints team that can’t get their offense going. Until seeing the Saints put up more than 25, it’s likely to continue. It took the Saints 16 games to match the futility in scoring they have accomplished in four games (25 points scored or less) this season and one of those was the final game of 2009 where they rested everyone.

The Jets opened as 3 ½-point favorites for their home Monday night game against the Vikings and have been bet up to -4 even with the Randy Moss trade. Moss will definitely make the Vikings better down the road, but the Jets are clicking right now. Second-year QB Mark Sanchez still doesn’t have an interception and he finally gets to utilize Santonio Holmes this week.

NFL Notes

Of all the teams playing this week, only the Chiefs have an unblemished record ATS followed by the Texans, Lions, Rams and Jets at 3-1. To show just how inconsistent, or consistent, the ‘dogs have been in 2010 -- beyond the Chiefs, Rams and Lions who were last year’s worst -- there are 14 teams playing this week who are 2-2 ATS. Three of last years favorite public teams -- the Cowboys, Saints and Vikings -- have all been losers ATS this year.

College Moves of the Week

Syracuse from +9 ½ to +7 ½ at South Florida
Wake Forest from +6 to +3 ½ against Navy
Tulane from +2 ½ to PK against Army
Louisiana Tech +1 to -2 against Utah State
Arkansas State from -1 ½ to -3 ½ at North Texas

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Odds: Packers travel to face Redskins

The Washington Redskins are in for another tough game when they host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has Green Bay as 2 ½-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½-points. Washington is plus 120 to win the game outright.

The Redskins are 2-2 both straight-up and against the spread after a 17-12 road win at Philadelphia as five-point ‘dogs. The 29-points scored went ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘over’ was 10-3 in Washington’s previous 13 games.

Top NFL Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The win moved Washington into a three-way tie in the NFC East with Philly and the New York Giants. It was also great revenge for quarterback Donovan McNabb, who spent 11 seasons with the Eagles.

McNabb had very modest numbers last week (8-of-19, 125 yards), but was happy just to win. It was the only game this season where he’s attempted less than 32 passes.

The running game really stepped up last week with 169 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 per carry). Ryan Torain had 18 carries for 70 yards and he’ll carry the full load this week with Clinton Portis doubtful with a groin injury.

Green Bay’s run defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (31st in the NFL) and Washington would love to eat up clock. McNabb doesn’t have many receiving targets outside of receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley, so it’s hard to rely on the passing game.

The Redskins’ pass defense is ranked 31st at 305 YPG. They did catch a break when Michael Vick was hurt in the first quarter of last week. Kevin Kolb threw for 201 yards in relief, but was largely ineffective, not scoring a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter.

Top NFL Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Washington is a home ‘dog for the third time in three NFL betting games (going 1-1 SU and ATS). It had a 13-7 win over Dallas (3 ½-point spread) and a 30-27 overtime loss to Houston (2 ½-point spread). Houston came back from a 27-10 deficit.

Washington is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games overall.

Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) had a tough time against winless Detroit last week, 28-26 victory as 14 ½-point home favorites. The Packers were fortunate to win after allowing 331 passing yards to Shaun Hill and losing the time of possession 37:37-22:23.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks ninth in the NFL in quarterback rating (96.3) and his 68.9 completion percentage is fourth. He does have five picks, including two last week, and he could be getting frustrated with defenses taking away his deep routes and forcing throws underneath.

Rodgers also has to be unhappy about the running game. Ryan Grant was lost for the season in Week 1 and Brandon Jackson doesn’t look like a featured back (three yards per carry). The team could have acquired Rodgers’ college teammate, Marshawn Lynch from Buffalo, but he just went to Seattle.

Top NFL Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Packers are 1-1 SU and ATS on the road this year. They opened at Philly and had an impressive 27-20 win as three-point favorites. They lost 20-17 at Chicago on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, but much of the blame was on a record 18 penalties for 152 yards.

Green Bay went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in regular season road games last year.

These NFL teams last met in 2007 with Green Bay winning 17-14 at home. They’ve only met six times since 1986 with the Pack going 5-0-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in those contests.

The Packers lost starting strong safety Morgan Burnett (knee) for the year last week. They’re very thin at the position. Starting linebacker Nick Barnett (wrist) is questionable and backup Brandon Chillar (shoulder) is doubtful.

Kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. (PT) on FOX. Weather looks very good with temperatures rising into the low 70s.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting: Titans and Cowboys in Big D

If the Tennessee Titans are ready to turn the corner and fulfill their preseason hype, this is the game they need to win. If the Dallas Cowboys are ready to turn the corner and fulfill their preseason hype, this is the game they need to win.

That wasn't a typo.

Two teams loaded with talent and lofty expectations meet in a 1:15 p.m. PT contest on CBS hoping to put the panic button back on the shelf.

The Titans' (2-2) issues are easy to identify; they are allergic to the football. Mixed in with two solid victories versus Oakland and the Giants, Tennessee put the ball on the ground nine times in losses (at home) to Pittsburgh and Denver.

As such, the Titans have held on to the ball for only 27:37 a game; bested only by the 0-4 Buffalo Bills.

The Cowboys (1-2) haven't been masters of excution themselves. The 'Boys have been piling up the yardage (391.7/game, fifth in the NFL) but have only scored 54 points in three games. They went a long way to correct this problem two weeks ago in Houston with a sound 27-13 over the Texans that wasn't even that close.

The rebound victory aside, the Cowboys have two other things working for them: the bye week and their 3-4 defense. The Cowboys haven't lost – or even failed to cover – coming out of a bye since 2004.

If it is to be seven years in a row, they have the perfect defensive base to make it happen. Tennessee's two losses came against 3-4 defenses (Pitt and Denver), a scheme Wade Phillips employs in Big D. That said, in the loss Houston's Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards, mostly in the first half.

Easy Street Sports has installed Dallas as 7-point favorites (with a total of 41½). The interconference matchup lacks any interesting head-to-head side trends (aside from the Cowboys being 6-0 off a bye since 2004), but Cowboy games have gone 'under' 11 of the last 14.

With both teams at near full-strength and surrounded by two uninspiring 1 p.m. games, it should be a fun game to cap.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/04/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/10 16-9-0 64.00% +3050 Detail
Totals 17-10-0 62.96% +3000

Sunday, October 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 41 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -7.5 500***** ( AFC BLOW OUT OF THE DAY )
Indianapolis - Under 46 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +6.5 500***** ( INTERCONFERENC UPSET)
Cincinnati - Under 38 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Washington +2.5 500
Washington - Over 45 500*****( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +3 500
Detroit - Under 42.5 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -2.5 500
Carolina - Under 33 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants +3 500*****(POD)
Houston - Over 48.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -7.5 500
Baltimore - Over 40 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 41 500

New Orleans - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +6.5 500
Arizona - Under 45.5 500

Tennessee - 4:15 PM ET Dallas -7 500 (Late Game POD )
Dallas - Under 42.5 500

San Diego - 4:15 PM ET Oakland +6.5 500 *****
Oakland - Under 44 500

Philadelphia - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -3 500 (SUNDAY NIGHT MAGIC )
San Francisco - Over 38 500

Good Luck !

[Kaptain]

bust em in the chops today BUM....as always, thanks for all the wreite ups, and naturally, your picks

[StarDust Bum]

Max Hall starts at QB against Saints

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-1)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT, Line: New Orleans -6.5, Total: 45.5

Two struggling offenses square off Sunday in Arizona. The Saints are averaging less than 20 PPG after leading the NFL with 32 PPG last season. The Cardinals are now turning to undrafted rookie Max Hall to jump-start an offense ranked second-to-last in total yardage (252 YPG) and fourth-to-last in scoring (14.5 PPG) this season.

******* take:
Hall has to make quicker decisions if he is to succeed in the NFL. He was sacked six times after replacing Derek Anderson last week. Hall, the former BYU star, finished 8-for-14 for 82 yards in the blowout loss to San Diego. Hall will also be limited due to the Cardinals decimated receiving corps. Steve Breaston (knee) and Early Doucet (sports hernia) will both likely miss Sunday’s game.

New Orleans has won three of the four meetings since 2000, including a 45-14 beatdown in last year’s playoffs. This FoxSheets coaching trend also likes New Orleans to come away with the victory on Sunday.

Saints head coach Sean Payton is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 31.8, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets coaching trend on Payton sides with the Over.

Payton is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) off a home win as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.The average score was NEW ORLEANS 28.5, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Running games are an issue for Bucs-Bengals

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-1)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Cincinnati -6.5, Total: 38

The Bengals look for a more balanced offensive attack Sunday when they host Tampa Bay. Cincinnati ranks sixth in the NFL with 258 passing YPG, but is just 23rd in rushing (92 YPG). Last week, Carson Palmer threw for 371 yards and two TD and Terrell Owens had 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD. But Cedric Benson has had an off-year as he deals with a knee injury. Last season Benson averaged 96 rush YPG and 4.2 YPC, but those numbers have dropped to 66 rush YPG and 3.3 YPC in 2010.

The Bucs running game hasn’t been much better (96.3 YPG, 20th in NFL), but head coach Raheem Morris is now using is an RB-by-committee approach with rookie LeGarrette Blount (4.5 YPC) getting the most carries, followed by Cadillac Williams (2.5 YPC). Earnest Graham (2.2 YPC) will likely be brought in for short yardage and Kareem Huggins will be the third-down back. TE Kellen Winslow used the bye week to rest his surgically repaired knee and will be close to 100 percent against Cincinnati.

The Bengals have some injury concerns. WR Chad Ochocinco missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury, but listed as probable on the injury report. Back-up RB Bernard Scott is also listed as probable due to his ailing hamstring. No. 3 WR Jordan Shipley (concussion) is the only significant offensive player that will miss Sunday’s game, but two key players in the secondary are also banged up. SS Roy Williams is out 3-to-4 weeks with a sprained MCL and CB Johnathan Joseph is questionable with a forearm injury.

These teams have only met once since 2003, with the Bucs winning 14-13 in 2006. All the FoxSheets trends favor Tampa Bay to cover on Sunday, including these two:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game.(53-23 since 1983.) (69.7%, +27.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams (CINCINNATI) - after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.(34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (70-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Fred Jackson is key to Bills' success against Jaguars

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-2)
at BUFFALO BILLS (0-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Buffalo -1.5, Total: 41

Jacksonville tries to keep its euphoric state after last week’s buzzer-beating win over Indianapolis when it visits winless Buffalo. The Bills will try to avoid their first 0-5 start since 1985 without RB Marshawn Lynch who was traded earlier in the week to Seattle. Bills coach Chan Gailey has named Fred Jackson the starting running back and says he will get the majority of carries over rookie C.J. Spiller.

******* take:
Jackson had 1,433 total yards last year, but only has 20 carries this season (for 87 yards). In three career games against the Jaguars he only has 70 rushing yards (3.7 YPC), but has also caught 16 passes for 150 yards. Spiller has also not gotten a lot of carries either, with just 14 rushes for 49 yards.

The bigger concern in Buffalo is its defense. The Bills have allowed an NFL-most 125 points this year and have no interceptions. Jaguars QB David Garrard played poorly in two straight games before coming on strong last week with a 17-for-22, 163-yard, two-TD performance against the Colts. RB Maurice Jones-Drew also had his first 100-yard game of the season against Indy with 105 rushing yards and two total TD. Jones-Drew has eight touchdowns in four games against Buffalo, but he hasn’t run the ball very well, gaining just 171 yards on 50 carries (3.4 YPG). But Jones-Drew, despite a bad ankle, should be more successful Sunday against Buffalo’s worst run defense in the NFL (174 rush YPG). Back-up RB Rashad Jennings (shoulder) is doubtful to play Sunday.

Despite not being in the same division, these teams have met seven times in the past nine years. Buffalo is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in this span. But this FoxSheets trend likes Jacksonville to pull off the win on Sunday.

Play On - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog against opponent off a home loss.(31-9 since 1983.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Kolb leads underdog Eagles into San Francisco



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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-2)
at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 38

The Eagles travel to winless San Francisco to battle the 49ers without their quarterback, Michael Vick. He is expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks of action after suffering an injury to his ribs in last week’s loss to Washington. Kevin Kolb regains his starting spot which he lost in Week 1 after suffering a concussion against Green Bay.

Kolb has only played in two road games in his career, completing 17-of-34 passes for 96 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in mop-up duty of two blowouts. He could certainly have success against a San Francisco defense allowing 509 passing yards in its past two games. But the Eagles could be without top RB LeSean McCoy who will be a game-time decision due to a fractured rib. The good news in Philly is that top cornerback Asante Samuel (concussion) is expected to start on Sunday night.

The best defense for San Francisco would be to keep Kolb off the field by establishing the run. The 49ers gained 142 yards on the ground in their lone home game this season, but averaged just 58 rush YPG in three road losses. Frank Gore leads the team in rushing (270 yds) and receiving (263 yds) and must have a big game for San Francisco to come out victorious. QB Alex Smith has had a brutal season with just three touchdowns and seven interceptions.

These teams have played four times since 2005, with the Eagles winning all four games (SU and ATS) by an average score of 37 to 17. These two FoxSheets coaching trends advise another play on Philadelphia because of their great leader Andy Reid.

Reid is 60-37 ATS (62%, +19.3 Units) in road games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 21.9, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Reid is 92-56 ATS (62%, +30.4 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.5, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Three of the past four meetings went Over, with last year’s game finishing just 1.5 points under the total. This FoxSheets stat likes the Over again on Sunday night.

Play Over - Road teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. (40-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +22.4 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cowboys look to remain strong after bye

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TENNESSEE TITANS (2-2)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (1-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: Dallas -7, Total: 41.5

The Titans bring a 10-game win streak against NFC opponents into Dallas on Sunday to face a well-rested Cowboys team. Dallas has won at least three straight games after its bye in each of the past three seasons.

Chris Johnson is the key to another Tennessee victory. He only has 354 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC this year, which is well off last year’s 2,000-yard pace. Johnson will not have an easy time against a quality Dallas defense, and also considering how bad the Titans passing offense is (152 YPG, third-worst in the NFL).

Despite the two losses, Tony Romo has had a quality season, leading the Cowboys to the fourth-best passing attack in the NFL (312 YPG). Romo has completed 69 percent of his passes, but only has four touchdowns (and two picks) in three games. The Dallas rushing attack has been weak, as its 80 rush YPG is only better than six other NFL teams. Team owner Jerry Jones said that RB Felix Jones (22 carries, 88 yards) will have a bigger role in the offense moving forward.

The Titans were crushed in their last meeting with Dallas (45-14 in 2006), but are 15-1 in their past 16 games against NFC teams since that game. This

FoxSheets stat favors Tennessee on Sunday.

Play Against - Home favorites (DALLAS) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. (31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Despite both teams having top-10 defenses allowing approximately 300 total YPG, the FoxSheets lean towards the Over on Sunday.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game. (34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*).