NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (10/10 - 10/11) + My BEST BETS !

[tech fan]

Thanks for all the info stardust would help out alot if i had noticed this thread last night.alot easier than going to 12 different places getting all the stats

[StarDust Bum]

12 different places???

[tech fan]

12 different places???

yeah buddy i always go to team pages check injury reports and i always go to local papers online and read what they are writing gives u a little bit more insight than the national papers.

[StarDust Bum]

I'll try to get that information out also Tech guy.........

[tech fan]

i'll try to get that information out also tech guy.........

appreciate it buddy.i have always liked the stardust buddy.when i was in vegas i could not be pulled away from the stardust.hell the horse and dog racing section was awesome.right there beside all of the games on big screens in the sportsbook

[StarDust Bum]

Jets favored by 4.5 points over Vikings

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-2)
at NEW YORK JETS (3-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -4.5, Total: 38

The storylines are abundant as Randy Moss returns to the Vikings for a Monday night matchup with the Jets. Moss was traded from New England to Minnesota in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2011. Moss (9 rec., 139 yds, 3 TD) returns to the team where he caught 574 passes for 9,142 yards and 90 TD in seven seasons. That equates to insane yearly averages of 82 rec., 1,306 yds and 13 TD.

The Jets shut-down CB Darrelle Revis is expected to play through his injured hamstring and cover Moss on Monday night. Revis hurt himself trying to cover Moss in New York’s Week 2 win over the Patriots. Moss has had mixed results playing against Revis and the Jets. He scored a touchdown against New York in Week 2, but his career numbers against the Jets are below average for the Future Hall-of-Famer (36 rec, 510 yds, 4 TD in nine games). Another key component to the game will be Adrian Peterson (131 rush YPG) against a Jets run defense allowing just 75 YPG (fourth-best in NFL).

But Brett Favre and Moss should be successful throwing the football. New York’s pass defense has been vulnerable, ranking tied for 22nd in the league with 233 passing YPG allowed. New York is also bolstering its passing offense with a highly-talented receiver. Santonio Holmes will make his Jets debut after completing a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. But the Jets offense has done just fine without Holmes, averaging 32.3 points and 394.0 total yards during their three-game winning streak.

The Vikings has lost six straight games to the Jets since a 29-21 victory in 1975, and Favre has dropped his past three starts to the Jets. This FoxSheets trend favors Minnesota on Monday night.

Play Against - Favorites (NY JETS) - with a turnover margin of +2 /game or better on the season. (29-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +19.1 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend on Minnesota shows why the game should go Over, especially with Moss back in a Vikings uniform.

MINNESOTA is 21-6 OVER (+14.4 Units) in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average score was MINNESOTA 23.4, OPPONENT 30.6 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Vikings at Jets

There is no shortage of storylines on Monday night when the Vikings make their first trip to the new Meadowlands to battle the Jets. Brett Favre is no stranger to the Jets' fans after quarterbacking New York to a 9-7 mark in his lone season with them in 2008. Favre has been lacking a deep threat with Sidney Rice sidelined for at least another month, so the Vikings made the ultimate catch by reacquiring Randy Moss from the Patriots on Wednesday.

Moss was held to no catches in New England's 41-14 thrashing of Miami on Monday, and that was the last straw to his three-plus seasons in Foxboro. The Pro Bowl receiver showed plenty of displeasure regarding his current contract status, while quickly getting phased out of New England's future plans. Now, Moss returns to the Vikings after a brilliant seven-year career in Minnesota from 1998-2004.

All the focus on the Vikings this week may seem weird from a Jets' standpoint, as Rex Ryan's team has received plenty of publicity starting in training camp with HBO's "Hard Knocks." Now, the Jets are proving they are more than just a boisterous squad, winning three straight games after an opening week home loss to the Ravens.

New York picked up its second consecutive road triumph within the AFC East as the Jets diced up the winless Bills, 38-14. Following the nine-point effort against Baltimore, Mark Sanchez has led the Jets' offense to 28 points or more in each of the last three wins, while the second-year quarterback from USC has not thrown a single interception this season.

Past Sanchez's effectiveness, the other big story that has developed within New York's offense is the resurgence of LaDainian Tomlinson. The former Chargers' All-Pro ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yards with 341, while reaching the end zone three times. Sanchez will be helped out this week with the insertion of ex-Steeler Santonio Holmes into the lineup, returning from a four-game suspension.

The Vikings are fresh off the bye week after picking up their first win of the season over the lowly Lions in Week 3. Minnesota covered as double-digit favorites in a 24-10 romping, capped off by an 80-yard touchdown scamper by Adrian Peterson. The Vikings finally found some offensive spark against Detroit after getting held to 19 points the first two games combined. The 'under' has cashed easily in all three games, with the Minnesota defense limiting opponents to 14 points or less in each contest.

The Jets are just 3-5 ATS as a home favorite under Ryan, as the win over the Patriots in Week 2 came as a short 'dog. New York has been a coin-flip proposition at home against NFC opponents since 2005, splitting 10 games. The Jets will hope that three times is a charm playing on Monday night since Ryan's hiring last season, as New York has lost both games to Baltimore ('10) and Miami ('09) under the primetime lights.

Minnesota is in a crucial stretch over the next month with games in the coming weeks against Dallas, followed by road contests at Green Bay and Moss' reunion in New England. The Vikings are 5-5 ATS since Favre's arrival in road contests, including the 14-9 defeat at New Orleans as 4 ½-point underdogs. Brad Childress has gotten his teams ready after the bye week in his tenure as head coach of the Vikings, compiling a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark.

The underdog has cashed in all five Monday night games this season, while the favorite is only 1-4 SU (New Orleans in Week 2). After the rash of Monday night 'overs' the first half of last season, the 'under' is 3-2 after the 'over' hit in New England's 41-14 victory at Miami last Monday.

The Jets are listed as a 4 ½-point favorite in most spots, but that number is slowly creeping up to five at some books. The total is set at 38 with 38 ½ popping up in several places, as the Vikings look to keep up their perfect 'under' run.

The game kicks off at 8:30 PM from the new Meadowlands and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Looking ahead to Week 6:

-- Two up-and-coming teams meet in Houston as the Texans hook up with the Chiefs. Kansas City is playing its second straight road contest within the AFC South following Sunday's 16-6 loss at Indianapolis. The Texans will look for their first win in their last three tries at home after defeats to the Cowboys and Giants at Reliant Stadium.

-- The Ravens and Patriots renew acquaintances after Baltimore ran New England out of the first round of the playoffs last season. The Pats return from the bye week after the Moss trade, while the Ravens play their fourth tough road contest of the season after games at the Jets, Bengals, and Steelers.

-- The Colts will try to avoid their third road loss of the season as Indianapolis travels to the Nation's Capital to battle Washington. The Redskins continue to be listed as an underdog, as next Sunday's contest against the Colts will the fifth time Mike Shanahan's club will be receiving points this season. Washington has managed to win outright as a 'dog three times so far following the overtime victory over Green Bay.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs bury bettors, again

Sunday was the best day of the NFL season for many of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, but it wasn’t even the best day of the holiday weekend for some which happened the day before on Saturday. That’s right, the rich get richer and the poorer get poorer for the fifth straight week. Not much has changed from the day that Christopher Columbus himself supposedly discovered America.
Between the sportsbooks beating every major decision in Saturday’s college action and a slew of outright underdog winners in the NFL, the two days came close to being one of the best combined weekend wins ever for Las Vegas sportsbooks. The figures varied somewhat based on being a strip or locals property with the major differences being the extraordinary handle and win the local books get with parlay cards.

A good weekend of normal parlay card hold -- pre-2010 NFL season -- would be considered holding 30%. After Sunday‘s games all washed, most books were holding over 70% of card handle.

Saturday’s most weighted public college teams like Alabama, Florida, Stanford, Oregon and Arizona all failed to win or cover setting the stage up for Sunday’s NFL action. Most of the sportsbooks anticipated Week 5 being the bettors turn and braced for the inevitable cycle of fairness, but it didn’t happen. The underdog trend continued and actually grew stronger with the dogs going 9-4 against the spread.

The Sportsbook Directors aren’t complaining, but they are concerned about how the regular Joe bettors can keep coming back firing at the same pace after getting beat once again. This week’s handle was spurred by all the three-day weekend visitors, but what about next week when the dust settles and it’s just the regular crowd again. The five straight weeks of bettors losing in the NFL is a streak to start the year like never before.

This season truly has been amazing and has thrown a wrench into just about everyone’s handicapping tendencies. I suggested last week to stay the course and that things should all cycle around again, but I’m less confident now and I’m now saying that it may be time go outside the box. It’s apparent that anything can happen and that all teams are capable of winning anywhere at anytime.

For instance, why even take points anymore when you can just take the money line and cash in. That’s what happened Sunday when nine of the underdogs won outright -- no points needed -- with only four favorites winning.

During the early games, things didn’t seem so out of line just because the two largest spreads got there and the underdogs that won weren’t that big of a surprise. The Ravens and Colts were each 7-point favorites and covered while the Bengals lost as 6 ½-point home favorites to the Buccaneers. It was what happened in the late games that threw the entire week for a loop when all three large underdogs won straight up and ultimately killed the bettor’s chances.

The Saints, Chargers and Cowboys weren’t just ordinary favorites, either, they each had strong 7-point spreads. In all three games it came down to the final minute to decide the winner, but covering the spread was never really in doubt for each of their opponents. The major question was whether the dogs could pull off the upsets, and they did.

The Cardinals’ 30-20 win over the Saints might have been the most improbable of the day just because of rookie Max Hall starting the game against the Super Bowl champs. Even worse for Saints fans -- that puts their season in perspective -- is that the Cardinals didn’t have a rushing or passing touchdown for the game, yet managed to put up 30 points. The Saints were held under 25 points for the fifth time this year, one more than they had the entire 2009 season.

The Chargers and Cowboys each passed for over 400 yards, but made key turnovers and mistakes that they were never able to recover from. The Raiders blocked two punts and forced two San Diego turnovers inside the red zone, and that was only in the first quarter, but it set the tempo for the rest of the game.

Probably the Cowboys’ biggest mistake -- one that won’t show up in the box score -- is that Wade Phillips is still the head coach. Twelve ill-timed penalties for 133 yards kept the Titans in position all game long to keep the Cowboys defense off balance, and it‘s all a reflection of their coach and his lackadaisical approach. The best thing Jerry Jones could do is get a coach who screams loud at players, levies fines and suspensions to get that extra 15% missing from their individual games.

Cowboy fans must have a hard time watching Phillips show no emotion when his players do something dumb. At one point you could actually read Phillips lips as he was talking into the head set where he said, “What just happened” after another penalty.

The biggest public games of the day were the Falcons, who covered, the Packers, Saints and Chargers. That would have been a rough four-team parlay for the sports books, but they beat them down with only Falcons getting there.

Some of the Sharp plays of the day went the books way as well. The Ravens covered, but the Bills and Panthers each lost. All three of those games saw significant action on game day and rose by a point-and-a-half each. The three plays all made sense on paper where the spread was maybe deflated a little to catch up to the crazy adjusted ratings of today’s NFL parity.

The Panthers went to 0-5 on the season joining the Bills and 49ers as the only winless teams after the Lions smashed the Rams to get out of that group. A Panthers bettor must be shaking his head wondering how it’s possible to lose a game when the starting quarterback throws four interceptions as back-up Todd Collins did for the Bears.

Let’s hope it gets easier this week where we have one double-digit favorite and only two others that are a touchdown favorite or above. You’ve got San Diego on the road again where they are now 0-3, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger making his season debut against the Browns and the Packers hosting Miami with QB Aaron Rodgers on concussion status.

The game that stands out the most is Denver getting over three points at home against the N.Y. Jets, who will be playing on a short week (MNF). After watching Kyle Orton move the ball effectively against the Ravens top ranked pass defense in Baltimore, I am now a believer that his offensive game can’t be stopped by anyone. I’d look for a high scoring game that the Broncos should hang around in and then maybe get some Mile High Magic near the end.

Good Luck and make Week 6 yours to own!

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/10/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
10/04/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/10 16-9-0 64.00% +3050 Detail
Totals 30-23-0 56.60% +2350

Monday, October 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota +4.5 500 *****
N.Y. Jets - Under 39.5 500 *****