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**StarDust Bum** · 10-04-2010, 06:18 PM

NFL Betting Odds: Are Chiefs the Patriots-Lite?

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the former New England Patriots Vice President Of Player Personnel, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback. While they have a Patriots-like feel to them, there is still no evidence that they can encompass the winning.

If they are to start this year, then their run would be as surprising as commencement of the Patriots dynasty back in 2001. They only won once in their last six contests of 2009 and covered just two spreads in those NFL football games. After a pedestrian offseason, there aren’t many signs that they are trending upwards.

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What Has Changed

On the surface, it looks like the Chiefs made some minor changes but their offseason goal was to plant some seeds in the garden, not renovate the entire house.

On the sidelines, they brought in Charlie Weis to be their offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel to be their defensive coordinator. Both worked with Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl years in New England but both found themselves looking for work after failures at their most recent jobs.

Neither has a lot of talent to work with but the pressure will be on Weis specifically to make quarterback Matt Cassel look a lot better in his second NFL football season with the team.

Thomas Jones was signed to help out the Chiefs backfield and take some pressure off of Cassel but the soon-to-be 32-year-old may not have much left in the tank, which is why some eyebrows were raised when they signed him.

Aside from that, the Chiefs didn’t do much to their offense. They are hoping that second-round pick Dexter McCluster can do as much for them as he did at Ole Miss, that Dwane Bowe wakes up and that Chris Chambers remains invigorated as he did down the stretch with the Chiefs.

On defense, their 3-4 defense still lacks plenty of parts in year two. First-round pick Eric Berry will help out the secondary immensely, but being gentle, the cupboard is very bare on this defensive unit.

Offensive X-Factor: Matt Cassel

The Chiefs made Cassel the highest paid quarterback in franchise history before he ever took a snap with the team. A year later, Cassel hasn’t done much to quiet speculation that the money was well wasted.

Granted, he didn’t have much help around him, but he threw just three touchdowns and nine interceptions in his last five games of 2009-10, which is a trend that is very discouraging.

Real Time Odds - Get them here

Believe it or not, but in his second season in Kansas City this is already a make-or-break year for him. If he can’t play better, than the Patriots simply won this deal and the Chiefs will again be looking for a franchise quarterback. Right now, that’s the perception and Cassel has to prove everyone wrong this year.

Defensive X-Factor: Romeo Crennel

Crennel always worked with very little – or what appeared to be very little talent – in New England, but he couldn’t do much in Cleveland. Considering what the Chiefs have on defense, this will have to be one of his best jobs yet.

Back-to-back top-five draft picks Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey combined for just one sack last year, the linebacking corps is very suspect and third-year cornerback Brandon Flowers is the experienced veteran of the secondary.

Crennel better work some magic or this team will give up a ton of points for a second straight season.

2010 Projection

Without even looking at the schedule and just evaluating the talent on this team, I’m not sure how anyone can project seven wins out of this squad.

Their defense is pathetic and their offense won’t be able to keep up. The only thing they have going for them is a fairly easy schedule.

They’ll play the NFC West, which means Arizona and San Francisco will visit Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll also have road trips to Seattle and St. Louis. Their AFC division will be the AFC South.

They’ll also get to host the Buffalo Bills this year and visit the Cleveland Browns.

To be fair, this is an easy schedule overall – especially with four other games against Denver and Oakland – but even an optimist can’t bank on seven wins. They went 1-7 at home last year, which means that playing at Arrowhead isn’t the advantage it used to be, and there are question marks all across the roster.

If we could trust Cassel, a 7-9 might be within reach but this team has made no indications to date that they can win seven games in 2010-11.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:14 PM

Home dogs continue to pay off

The success of home underdogs continues, with three more outright wins in five opportunities in Week 4, highlighted by Jacksonville’s last-second 31-28 thriller over Indianapolis. With Cleveland’s win over Cincinnati and St. Louis’s victory against Seattle, home underdogs have now gone 16-9-1 (63%) ATS and 14-12 SU so far this season. The two losses in Week 4 came when Oakland failed to cover against Houston and Buffalo got humiliated by the New York Jets.
The early lines for Week 5 show a number of home underdog options:

Atlanta at Cleveland
Green Bay at Washington
New Orleans at Arizona
San Diego at Oakland
Chicago at Carolina
Jacksonville at Buffalo

Of these six games, the FoxSheets show the most support for Cleveland and Arizona. Consider these angles for the Browns at home against the Falcons:

• Under coach Eric Mangini, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was Cleveland 17.6, Opponent 19.3 - (Rating = 2*).

• Mangini is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after playing a game at home in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Mangini 22.6, Opponent 15.9 - (Rating = 1*).

• Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Atlanta 20.1, Opponent 24.9 - (Rating = 1*).

Also note that Atlanta dropped its only game played outdoors this season, a 15-9 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 1 in which they were also a road favorite.

The FoxSheets data in Arizona’s favor over New Orleans includes the following:

• Arizona is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. The average score was Arizona 20.7, Opponent 23.1 - (Rating = 2*).

• Arizona is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. The average score was Arizona 25.0, Opponent 18.2 - (Rating = 2*).

• Play On - Any team (Arizona) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after allowing 40 points or more last game. (33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

While the Saints are 3-1 SU, they are just 1-3 ATS this season. This is just the second road game of the season for the defending Super Bowl champs, who defeated San Francisco 25-22 in week two but lost ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 07:38 PM

Key offensive injuries in Bears-Panthers game

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CHICAGO BEARS (3-1)
at CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: OFF

In a game marking the return of DE Julius Peppers to Carolina, the offenses are the story here with Bears QB Jay Cutler and Panthers WR Steve Smith both suffering major injuries in last week’s losses. Cutler was knocked out with a concussion in Chicago’s 17-3 loss at New York on Sunday night. Reports out of Chicago say Cutler’s concussion is not severe and he is expected to play against this Sunday. Smith’s diagnosis is not nearly as favorable. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Carolina’s 16-14 loss at New Orleans and is doubtful to suit up on Sunday.

******* take:
If Cutler plays, expect the Bears to be favored by about 2.5 points. That makes Carolina a home underdog, which has covered the spread 63 percent of the time this season. But the loss of Smith will be devastating to an already weak passing offense (25th in NFL). Neither QB in the Matt Moore/Jimmy Clausen duo has thrown for 200 yards in a game this year. WR Dwayne Jarrett also made news with his second DWI in three years, which prompted the Panthers to cut him. That leaves only two wide receivers with catches this year -- David Gettis (7 rec.) and Brandon LaFell (4 rec.).

Since 2009, Carolina is 1-5 ATS against non-divisional opponents at home. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with Cutler’s Chicago squad on Sunday afternoon.

Play Against - Home teams (CAROLINA) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a road loss. (28-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 07:39 PM

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-2)
at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: OFF

The Eagles travel to winless San Francisco to battle the 49ers without their quarterback, Michael Vick. He is expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks of action after suffering an injury to his ribs in last week’s loss to Washington.

******* take:
Kevin Kolb starting for the Eagles will likely make Philly a 2.5-point underdog to the 0-4 Niners. Kolb has only played in two road games in his career, completing 17-of-34 passes for 96 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in mop-up duty of two blowouts. He could certainly have success against a San Francisco defense allowing 509 passing yards in its past two games. The best defense would be to keep Kolb off the field by establishing the run. The 49ers gained 142 yards on the ground in their lone home game this season, but averaged just 58 rush YPG in three road losses.

These teams have played four times since 2005, with the Eagles winning all four games (SU and ATS) by an average score of 37 to 17. Three of the four games went Over, with last year’s game finishing just 1.5 points under the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 11:11 PM

NFL Betting Odds: Denver Broncos at Ravens

Two teams hoping to string together an early season winning streak collide Sunday when Denver visits Baltimore. The Broncos enter this matchup off an impressive road victory, while the Ravens just defeated a hated divisional rival.

Denver (2-2 straight up and against the spread) enters Week 5 of the NFL betting season tied for second place in the AFC West with San Diego, trailing undefeated Kansas City. The Broncos have a positive scoring differential of just two points (87-85) entering this matchup.

Baltimore (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) remains one of the favorites to win the AFC, opening at 11/1 before moving to its current 6/1 status. Only three teams with identical 5/1 NFL odds (Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh) have better odds of representing the AFC at Super Bowl XLV. The Ravens have a positive scoring differential of six points (61-55) after their first four games, all against fellow AFC North opponents.

Don Best Real-Time Odds has Baltimore listed as seven-point home ‘chalk’ over Denver, with the total set at 38 ½. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s matchup from M&T Bank Stadium beginning at 10:00 a.m. PT.

Top NLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Denver has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses this season after beating Tennessee last weekend as a six-point road underdog, 26-20. The combined 46 points eclipsed the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1.

The Broncos prevailed by outscoring the Titans in the fourth quarter, 10-0. Denver finished the contest with advantages in first downs (22-13), passing yards (308-167), turnovers forced (2-1) and time of possession (35:18-24:42).

Quarterback Kyle Orton was 35-of-50 passing for 341 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Wideouts Brandon Lloyd (11 receptions for 115 yards) and Eddie Royal (eight catches for 113 yards and a score) helped overcome an anemic ground game. The Broncos managed just 19 yards on 20 attempts, led by Orton’s three rushing attempts for 11 yards.

Baltimore upended AFC North rival Pittsburgh last weekend as a two-point road underdog, 17-14. The combined 31 points failed to topple the 34 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1.

The Ravens finished the contest with advantages in first downs (22-14), passing yards (250-126) and turnovers forced (2-1). Baltimore prevailed when quarterback Joe Flacco connected with wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh on an 18-yard scoring strike with just 32 seconds remaining.

Top NLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Flacco was 24-of-37 passing against the Steelers for 256 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Willis McGahee had 14 carries for 39 yards and a score in the victory, while wideout Derrick Mason caught six passes for 80 yards.

Baltimore throttled Denver last season in an early November matchup as a 4 ½-point home favorite, 30-7. The combined 37 points failed to eclipse the 42 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 6-1 the previous seven games in this series.

The home team is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings between these teams. The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 their previous eight outings in October. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 12-4 in the Ravens’ past 16 games when listed as a favorite.

Denver running back Knowshon Moreno (hamstring), cornerback Champ Bailey (leg), strong safety David Bruton (leg), fullback Spencer Larsen (ankle) and outside linebacker Wesley Woodyard (hamstring) are ‘questionable’ versus the Ravens, while cornerback Andre Goodman (thigh) is ‘probable.’

Baltimore running back Willis McGahee (head) and defensive tackle Cory Redding (concussion) are ‘questionable’ due to injury against the Broncos. while offensive tackle Jared Gaither (back), linebacker Tavares Gooden (shoulder) and linebacker Paul Kruger (knee) are ‘out.’

Denver follows this matchup with a two-game homestand against the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders. Baltimore travels to New England next weekend before returning home to tackle Buffalo.

Sunday’s forecast for M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore calls for sunny skies, with a high of 67 degrees and a low of 55.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 11:14 PM

NFL Odds: Perfect Chiefs on road at Colts

Even Nostradamus would have been hard-pressed to predict that the Kansas City Chiefs would be 3-0 and the Indianapolis Colts only 2-2 four weeks into this 2010 NFL season.

The NFL teams meet Sunday at 10 a.m. (PT) in Indianapolis and the Colts are the biggest NFL spread favorites on the Week 5 board at minus nine. The ‘over/under’ is 44 ½.

Indianapolis’ record of seven consecutive NFL seasons with 12 or more victories is in jeopardy, while Kansas City is off to its best start since 2003.

The Chiefs are the lone unbeaten team in the NFL. Kansas City was idle last week, so the Chiefs will be rested although their momentum may be slowed.

Top NLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

This is the Colts’ only home contest during a four-week span. Their last two games were on the road against Jacksonville and Denver and they are at Washington next week.

Peyton Manning sure isn’t the problem for Indianapolis. He has the top passer rating and leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 11. Manning is second in passing yards and only has one interception.

The Chiefs have allowed just 38 points this season in winning and covering against San Diego (21-14 as four-point home underdogs), Cleveland (16-14 as three-point road ‘dogs) and San Francisco (31-10 as 2 ½-point home ‘dogs).

Kansas City ranks fifth in run defense giving up 3.2 yards per rush, but its secondary has allowed 11 pass plays of 20 or more yards.

Manning has the weapons to take full advantage, especially with Reggie Wayne, who finished with a team-record 15 receptions for 196 yards in last Sunday’s 31-28 loss to Jacksonville.

The Colts lost to the Jaguars as seven-point road favorites, surrendering 337 yards, including 174 on the ground.

The Chiefs have the runners to take advantage in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, who is averaging seven yards a carry.

Kansas City rates 27th in passing offense, though, as Matt Cassel has failed to live up to his huge contract averaging less than 165 yards per game though the air.

Indianapolis should be pumped for a strong defensive effort. Can the Colts do it is the question.

Top NLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Minus injured star safety Bob Sanders, the Colts allowed 472 passing yards to Denver two weeks ago. Indianapolis helped make a star of Houston running back Arian Foster opening week by giving up 231 yards on the ground to him.

The Colts then bailed out Jacksonville’s beleaguered quarterback David Garrard this past Sunday. Garrard, in danger of losing his job, completed 17-of-22 passes versus Indianapolis with two touchdown throws. The Jaguars had managed only 184 yards of offense last week at home in a 25-point loss to Philadelphia.

The Chiefs probably will try to follow the blueprint the Texans and Jaguars showed when they upset the Colts, which is control the ball by frequently running and put lots of pressure on Manning. Kansas City had five sacks against San Francisco in its last game.

Kansas City has several NFL trends in its favor, including covering in six of its last seven road contests and going 5-0 ATS as an underdog. The Chiefs also have covered during their past four games against AFC opponents.

The Colts have trends going for them, too. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 October games and 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight matchups at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts fare well against strong competition going 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times they’ve met a foe with a winning mark.

The NFL betting ‘over’ has cashed seven of the past nine times the Colts have met an AFC opponent.

Indianapolis has covered seven of the last nine times versus Kansas City, although the teams last met in 2007 with the Colts winning, 13-10, but failing to cover as 14 ½-point home favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:17 PM

Denver RB Moreno could return against Baltimore

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DENVER BRONCOS (2-2)
at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -7, Total: 38.5

Reports out of Denver say that RB Knowshon Moreno, who has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury, could play against the Ravens on Sunday. Moreno has had a rough sophomore campaign, with just 111 yards on 39 carries (2.8 YPG). Last season, Moreno gained 947 yards on the ground (3.8 YPC) with seven touchdowns.

******* take:
A healthy Moreno would enable Denver to be a much more balanced team. After four weeks of action, the Broncos lead the league in passing offense (340 YPG) and are last in the NFL in rushing offense (55 YPG). Moreno’s backups have been terrible. Laurence Maroney (23 rush, 29 yds) and Correll Buckhalter (27 rush, 49 yds) are both averaging less than two yards per carry.

The Ravens defense ranks second in the league in yardage (236 YPG) including the best pass defense in the NFL (119 YPG). But they have been below average in stopping the run, ranking 21st with 117 rush YPG. Moreno should have some success moving the football via the ground game.

Baltimore has dominated this series recently, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, all since 2000. On November 1 last year, the Ravens pounded Denver 30-7, handing the 6-0 Broncos their first loss of the season. This FoxSheets trend shows the Broncos don’t play well on the heels of a high-scoring game (26-20 win at Tennessee), making Baltimore the pick.

DENVER is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.The average score was DENVER 20.2, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 3*).

FoxSheets also likes the Over in this game:

Play Over - Any team against the total (DENVER) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (75-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +35.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:17 PM

NFL bye week trends

If you’ve been around ******* the last few seasons, you’ve probably been anxiously awaiting the annual articles highlighting the top team trends for pre- and post-bye week games. Those of you who subscribe to The Platinum Sheet were tipped off to the following top two trends from this past Sunday:
SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS
HOME TEAMS have won eight of the last nine SEATTLE pre-bye week games, and those teams are 6-3 ATS over that span.
Play on: ST. LOUIS SU & ATS

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight PITTSBURGH pre-bye week games.Play on: BALTIMORE ATS

For those of you who may have missed both of those winners, the good news is that there are five bye-week angles for this coming week, which we’re giving to you right here, free of charge. Our next issue of The Platinum Sheet will contain a feature listing top handicapping angles for NFL Weeks 6, 7 and 8, so you’ll want to be sure not to miss that. In the meantime, here are the Week 5 angles that boast winning percentages over 65 percent:

TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS are 6-3 ATS in CINCINNATI pre-bye week games since 2001.
Play on: TAMPA BAY ATS

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO
BUFFALO has not won a pre-bye week game since 1999 and is 2-8-1 ATS over that span.
Play on: JACKSONVILLE SU & ATS

CHICAGO at CAROLINA
UNDERDOGS have covered 12 of the last 13 CAROLINA pre-bye week games.
Play on: CAROLINA ATS

NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 5-1-1 OVER the total in its last seven pre-bye week games.
Play on: OVER the total

MINNESOTA at NEW YORK JETS
MINNESOTA is 10-2 OVER the total since 1998 in post-bye week games.
MINNESOTA is on a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS run overall in post-bye week games.
Play on: MINNESOTA SU & ATS and OVER the total

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:20 PM

Injured Texans WRs could give Giants the edge

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NEW YORK GIANTS (2-2)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Houston -3, Total: 47.5

Andre Johnson was held out of practice Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Giants. Johnson missed last week’s 31-24 win in Oakland due to his ankle injury. Another key receiver for Houston, Jacoby Jones, is also questionable with an injured calf. Jones did play against the Raiders, but only had one catch for 12 yards.

******* take:
These injuries obviously limit Matt Schaub’s ability to move the ball through the air. Schaub already had worries about this game considering the Giants rank 2nd in the NFL in pass defense, allowing fewer than 140 passing YPG. New York had 10 sacks last week against Chicago, so it will likely have success in pressuring Schaub into bad throws. The key to this game will be the ability for Houston to control the clock with its rushing attack, led by Arian Foster. The second-year pro has 537 rushing yards, which is 126 more than anybody else in the NFL.

The Giants, on the other hand, should open up their passing game on the Texans secondary allowing a league-worst 338 passing YPG this year. Eli Manning has been inconsistent, ranking 7th in the league in passing yards (1,005), but throwing just five touchdowns with six interceptions this year.

These teams have only met twice, with the home team winning both games. Houston won 16-14 in 2002 and New York was a 14-10 victor in 2006. This FoxSheets coaching trend shows New York as the pick.

Tom Coughlin is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 24.2, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 3*).

And unlike the first two low-scoring games in the series, the FoxSheets lean toward the Over in this one:

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play. (57-27 since 1983.) (67.9%, +27.3 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:28 PM

Tech Trends - Week 5

DENVER at BALTIMORE... Ravens have covered 6 of past 7 since 2000 vs. Denver, winning and covering last four meetings at M&T Bank Stadium by 11 or more. Last 4 in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh 10-4 vs. line as home chalk since ‘08 (but 0-1 TY). Broncos "over" 8-1 last 9 since late LY. Tech edge-Ravens and "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO... Jags on 11-25 ATS run since beginning of ‘08 season (1-2 TY). Jags also "under" 8-4 last 12 away (though "over" 1-0 on road TY). Tech edge-slight to Bills, based on recent Jag woes.

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Chiefs have covered their last 5 since late LY, all as dogs, winning the last four of those SU. Chiefs 17-8 as road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

ST. LOUIS at DETROIT... Rams won their only game of ‘09 at Lions’ expense, 17-10! Lions 3-1 vs. line TY but just 7-11 since ‘09. St. Louis has covered last 23 in 2010. Rams also "under" 7-2 their last 9 away. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at CLEVELAND... Falcs 7-4 vs. line as “chalk” since LY, they’re also 13-7 overall vs. number since ‘09. Tech edge-Falcons, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI... Marvin Lewis 1-1 as “chalk” TY but 5-18 last 23 in role, and just 3-10 last 13 as home favorite. TB "under" 12-7 for Raheem Morris since LY. Tech edge-Bucs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at CAROLINA... Panthers "under" 14-7 last 21. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON... Pack 37-19 vs. line last 56 on board since late ‘06. Pack also 22-9 last 31 vs. number on road. Note Pack "under" first 3 TY after "over" 32-19 the previous three years. Skins 9-18-1 vs. number last 28 at FedEx Field (1-1 for Shan). Tech edge-Packers, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at HOUSTON... Giants 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road. G-Men also "over" 13-6 since beginning of ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "total" and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA... Rematch of Saints’ 45-14 playoff win LY. Saints no covers first 4 TY and just 4-12-1 last 17 on board. Cards 6-1 last 7 as home dog for Whisenhunt. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND... Bolts had covered 7 straight at Oakland before failing to get number in LY’s opener. Norv also 14-7 "over" last 21 since late ‘08. Raiders 14-34 vs. line last 48 at home. Tech edge-Chargers and "over," based on extended series and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at DALLAS… The old Oilers vs. Cowboys. Jeff Fisher dog marks not as impressive as earlier in career (15-14 in role since 2005). Wade Phillips only 27-27 vs. line with Cowboys, but he is 10-5 vs. line last 15 as host. Tech edge-slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO... Eagles have won and covered last 4 meetings since ‘05. If 49ers getting points, note Singletary 9-1 last 10 as dog. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on series trends.

MINNESOTA at NY JETS (Monday, October 11)... Favre returns to face the Jets. Note Vikes "under" first 3 in 2010. Vikes 2-1-1 as dog with Favre at controls. Jets have won and covered big last 3 TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent Vikings "totals" trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 07:44 PM

CFL Odds: Calgary seeks second straight win

The Calgary Stampeders made an early statement for the upcoming postseason with last week's 46-21 win at home, so this week they will go on the road looking for the home-and-home series sweep against the Montreal Alouettes. This Week 15 Thanksgiving Day matchup is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 11 at Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal with kickoff set for 10 a.m. (PT).

Calgary left little doubt it is currently the best team in the league with a dominating win over Montreal last week. The Stampeders easily covered the three-point spread as the home favorite with the 25-point victory and the total went well ‘over’ the 56 ½-point line. The win moved their record on the year to 10-3 straight-up and 9-4 against the CFL spread. Calgary also maintained its two-point lead over Saskatchewan in the West Division and now has the best record in the league. The Stamps head on the road this week where they are 4-2 both SU and ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last seven games.

Top CLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Montreal has to be reeling a bit after getting blown out by a team it will not only face again this week, but will most likely have to cross paths with again on the road to another Grey Cup championship. The loss dropped the Alouettes to 9-4 SU on the year and 6-7 ATS.

They still lead the East Division by six points with Hamilton and Toronto both losing last week as well. Montreal will try and even the score at home where it is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last seven games.

Stampeders QB Henry Burris picked the perfect time to snap his team out of a two-game slump with a spectacular performance against the Alouettes last Friday night. He finished the night completing 19-of-28 attempts for 412 yards and four TD’s. Romby Bryant had five receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns and Ken-yon Rambo led the team with six receptions for 169 yards and a score. Calgary was able to build a 27-14 lead at the half that it never relinquished.

Montreal signal caller Anthony Calvillo did not have one of his better nights as he went 17-for-33 and only had 211 yards passing. He did pass for three TD’s but threw a costly interception as well. Wide receiver Jamal Richardson had a productive night with five catches for 124 yards and a TD but it was not nearly enough to keep up with the Stamps’ high powered offensive attack.

Top CLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Alouettes did little with the ball on the ground as they were held to under 100 yards rushing. Another concern for Montreal is the health of its kicker Damon Duval who left the game with a leg injury. His status for this game is currently unknown.

Calgary has won six of the last 10 games between these two teams SU and is also 6-4 ATS. The two have split their last four meetings with average margin of victory being 13.4 points. Sportsinteraction.com has opened Montreal as a 3 ½-point CFL betting favorite with the ‘over/under’ line set at 58.

Fortunately for Montreal, Calvillo is extremely resilient and should be able to quickly bounce back from his poor performance last week, especially in front of the home-town crowd. The Alouettes take round two of this heavyweight matchupand cover the 3 ½ points.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 07:47 PM

CFL Betting: Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders

The Toronto Argonauts will be looking to snap the Saskatchewan Roughriders' three-game winning streak as well as avenge last week's 27-16 loss at Saskatchewan in the second of this home-and home series. This Week 15 matchup is scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 9 at Mosaic Stadium in Regina SK. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. (PT).

Toronto’s season continues to be in a free-fall as it has now lost five out of its last six games including last week’s loss to Saskatchewan. The Argonauts have fallen to 6-7 on the year both straight-up and against the CFL spread. They are currently tied with Hamilton for second place in the East Division, three games in back of Montreal.

Top CLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Though still in a solid position to make the playoffs, Toronto needs to string together a few wins to try and regain the momentum it had earlier in the year. The road may not be the best place to turn things around as the Argos are 2-4 both SU and ATS away from home this year. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their last six games.

Saskatchewan clinched a berth in the postseason with last week’s win, but still has the West Division title in its sights. The Roughriders are now 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS on the year and just two points behind Calgary for first place. They are the only team in the league that has yet to lose a game at home this year with a 6-0 record SU, but they are 4-2 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of Saskatchewan’s last eight games.

The story in Game 1 of this home-and-home series was Roughriders QB Darian Durant, who got the job done with both his arm and his feet. Durant ended the night completing 29-of-37 attempts for 310 yards and two TD’s. He also led the team in rushing with 47 yards on seven carries including a 10-yard run for a score in the first quarter.

Durant put his team ahead for good with a 66-yard scoring strike to Andy Fantuz to give Saskatchewan a 24-13 lead early in the second half. Each team added a field goal and the Roughriders covered as a 3 ½-point road favorite at the CFL betting window. The total stayed ‘under’ the 49-point line.

Top CLF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Toronto QB Dalton Bell got his first start of the year, replacing the injured Cleo Lemon. Bell was able to give the Argos some hope, completing close to 70 percent of his passes for 153 yards, but still had trouble getting his team in the end zone. This has been the case over the past six weeks as Toronto has not scored more than 17 points in any single game. Head coach Jim Barker has already stated that Bell will be the starter for this game as well.

Cory Boyd returned to the lineup and also added a spark by gaining 145 yards on 20 carries, but he too was kept from crossing the goal line.

Saskatchewan has won the last five games between these two teams SU but is just 2-2-1 ATS. The average margin of victory in those five games has been 8.4 points. Sportsinteraction.com has opened the Roughriders as an 11 ½-point favorite with the ‘over/under’ line set at 49.

The Roughriders have all the momentum and motivation coming into this game. While the Argonauts were able to keep the first game somewhat close at home, they will not be able to keep it closer than 11 ½ points against the Roughriders this week on the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 07:48 PM

CFL Betting Odds: Eskimos at Tiger-Cats

The Edmonton Eskimos will go on the road looking for the home-and-home series sweep against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats after last week's 37-35 win at home. This Week 15 matchup is scheduled for Friday, Oct. 8 at Ivor Wynne Stadium in Hamilton. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. (PT).

Edmonton kept its playoff hopes alive with the victory over Hamilton last week. The Eskimos are still in last place of the West Division with a record of 4-9 straight up. They currently trail British Columbia by two points for the sixth and final spot in the postseason. Edmonton is 5-8 overall against the CFL betting spread this year and is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last 10 games.

Last week’s loss dropped Hamilton to 6-7 SU on the year and leaves it still tied with Toronto for second place in the East Division, three games behind first-place Montreal. The Tiger-Cats are also 6-7 ATS overall and 3-3 both SU and ATS at home this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of Hamilton’s last seven games.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Game 1 of this home-and-home series was a battle to the end with the Eskimos hanging on for the two-point win. Hamilton failed to cover as a 1 ½-point road favorite and the total went way over the 50-point line. The Tiger-Cats built a 21-7 lead midway through the second quarter but the Eskimos battled back on a Fred Stamps five yard touchdown catch from QB Ricky Ray.

Rod Davis then intercepted a Kevin Glenn pass and returned it 22 yards for a score to tie the game at 21. It remained close through much of the second half until Stamps' 45-yard reception with less than five minutes to play in the game set up a one yard TD plunge by Ray to give Edmonton a 37-29 lead that it never relinquished.

Ray ended the game completing 28-of-36 attempts for 384 yards and two TD’s, while his counterpart Glenn completed 26-of-37 attempts for 294 yards and two TD’s along with the one costly interception. Stamps finished with 10 receptions for 181 yards and one TD. Tiger-Cats WR Marquey McDaniel led his team with nine catches for 122 yards and two teams. You have to believe both these pass-and-catch duos will be at it again this week as the ground game for either CFL team was not extremely effective.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Edmonton has now won four of the last five games between these two teams SU, but Hamilton is 3-2 ATS. The average margin of victory in these five games has only been 4.2 points with the largest spread being seven points. Sportsinteraction.com has opened the Tiger-Cats as a 5 ½-point favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is currently set at 52.

The Eskimos are battling for their playoff life and desperately need a win to keep B.C. within their sights. They may not be able to win this game on the road, but will be able to keep it close enough to cover the 5 ½ points.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-07-2010, 07:27 PM

Moss addition could put Vikings-Jets over total

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at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-2)
NEW YORK JETS (3-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -4, Total: 37.5

Randy Moss was traded from New England to Minnesota in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2011. Moss (nine catches, 139 yds, 3 TD) returns to the team where he caught 574 passes for 9,142 yards and 90 TD in seven seasons. That equates to insane season averages of 82 rec., 1,306 yds, 13 TD.

The Jets shut-down CB Darrelle Revis is expected to play through his injured hamstring and cover Moss on Monday night. Revis hurt himself trying to cover Moss in New York’s Week 2 win over the Patriots.

******* take:
Brett Favre finally has a replacement for the injured Sidney Rice and Moss will surely be his go-to receiver. The addition of Moss will also give a better chance for the game to go Over the small total. Moss has had mixed results playing against Revis and the Jets. He scored a touchdown against New York in Week 2, but his career numbers against the Jets are below average for the Future Hall-of-Famer (36 rec, 510 yds, 4 TD in nine games).

Although the Jets run defense has been stellar (75 YPG allowed, 4th-best in NFL), their pass defense has been vulnerable, ranking tied for 22nd in the league with 233 passing YPG allowed.

This FoxSheets trend on Minnesota shows why the game should go Over, especially with Moss back in a Vikings uniform.

MINNESOTA is 21-6 OVER (+14.4 Units) in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average score was MINNESOTA 23.4, OPPONENT 30.6 - (Rating = 2*).

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