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**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 05:54 PM

Books Clean House in Week 4

The fourth week of College Football brought with it the best week of the season for Nevada Sports Books as some of the most popular betting teams didn’t get there for the public. For the first three weeks, the books have won but haven’t had that really big day of holding 15 to 20% of the overall handle.

Thanks to the likes of Alabama, Boise State and Oregon not covering the spread in the feature games of the day, links to parlays and further extended risk were at a minimum. Popular teams like Ohio State who cover every week were also looked at apprehensively because of their large 44-point spread. Stanford had been another popular play with bettors for the first three weeks but bettors were mixed on views, half siding with Notre Dame.

Wynn UNLV Line On The Money
UNLV blasted New Mexico 45-10 Saturday night and some of the bettors were wondering how the line moved so much from the Las Vegas opener of UNLV -8 ½ to 11 ½ by game time. But had betting folks checked out the Las Vegas Wynn, they would have seen that their line -- the first in the world -- was UNLV -11 ½ to begin with.

It wasn’t such a drastic movement considering that the entire world of sports books followed a much lower consensus line as their opener, which actually forced the Wynn to lower theirs. Nevada sports books and paid consultants have gotten into a routine over the last 10 years of following and respecting off-shore lines much more than should be and the UNLV game is the perfect example.

Granted, it’s easy to second-guess after the fact, but the Las Vegas lines have been manipulated way before Saturday’s UNLV game. Off-shore does set the market, but which books should be trusted for creating solid openers intended for real bettors. It’s been long understood that several off-shore bookmakers use their lines as marketing schemes and others use it as way to set the market and dictate the Vegas line for their own posse of bettors.

So just where did the Wynn get their numbers from? Rather than put them in a dubious position to comment on for others to scrutinize, we’ll just answer for them and say they did it the old fashion way based solely on the true ratings and numbers. Congrats to the Wynn on being ahead of the game and having the gumption to stand alone on the small island of Las Vegas sports books.

Fremont Cannon Silver State Battle
Most everyone in Las Vegas is excited about UNLV winning their first game of the season last week, but at the same time we also can’t help be proud of our neighbors to the north as the Nevada Wolf Pack are back in the AP Top-25 for the first time in 62 years.

Nevada’s convincing 27-13 win at BYU Saturday impressed a lot of people who believed the Pack’s gimmick offense -- which the whole nation is now copying -- was only affective against lesser competition and at home. Nevada is off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 1991, the year before they jumped from I-AA to I-A.

As fate would have it, Nevada visits UNLV this week as a 20-point favorite in a battle for the Fremont Cannon. Nevada is going for their sixth straight win over UNLV which would be a record in the series. The two have faced off against each other 35 times with Nevada having a 20-15 edge.

In last years game, Nevada rolled to a 63-28 win in Reno with three players each rushing for over 175. At one point, if you can believe, the game was actually tied 28-28. At games end however, the Pack had gained 773 yards of total offense.

While it’s hard to conceive anyone putting up those type of numbers again, the fact that Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick might even be better than last year, as he’s already accounted for 13 touchdowns in four games, makes it hard to make a case for UNLV staying close. Weigh it out, the nation’s sixth best rushing team scoring the nation’s fifth most points against a UNLV team that is ranked 90th and above in just about every offensive and defensive category.

In all fairness to 1-3 UNLV, Nevada will be playing their third ranked opponent on the season, but its hard getting past their 30-7 loss at Idaho. It doesn’t get any easier for UNLV, either, as they’ll travel to West Virginia next week and then face No. 5 TCU October 5.

PAC-10 Stands Strong
It may sound like a broken record here, but since most papers across the land outside of Pac-10 country don’t back the conference as a viable one, we have to keep giving some west coast support among the east coast bias. Why keep reading the same babble from the main steam media that tries to fill heads with why the Pac-10 isn’t worthy.

I’ll never come off as saying the conference should be competing for the national title until a candidate emerges, but currently, due respect is warranted. No. 7 Texas getting blasted 34-12 by unranked UCLA at Austin should have been a resounding cannon shot to the college football world that the Bruins and west coast football can hang with anyone, but all we got from the media was that Texas is just in a down year.

It may seem as simple as that on paper, but on game film it reveals that UCLA blew one of the Big-12’s best recruiting teams off the line for 264 rushing yards while only gaining 27 yards passing. True, the Bruins lost their opener at Kansas State, another Big-12 team, but things appear to be much different now that Norm Chow’s ‘pistol’ offense is in full effect.

UCLA head coach Rick Neuhiesel can’t begin to thank Nevada’s Chris Ault enough for essentially bringing UCLA to the 21st century of college football wit their successful offense which makes any team a contender with the right weapons running it. UCLA still doesn’t have a threat at running back -- at least until Malcolm Jones starts -- and they still don’t have a true ’pistol’ quarterback in Kevin Prince. But what they do have is a beastly offensive line of fifth year seniors that has grown together as a cohesive unit within the scheme over the last two games.

As if the Long Horns weren’t practice enough for their newly found success in the system, they get a break by playing the conference door mat in Washington State at the Rose Bowl Saturday.

No. 9 Stanford’s 37-14 win at Notre Dame was very impressive and set up a great game this week at No. 4 Oregon where the Ducks are 7-point favorites. I like Stanford in this game because of how physical they are, not to mention one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Andrew Luck. Their style of play goes well beyond anything we have seen in recent Pac-10 football. If anything, they remind me of a tough Big-10 team in the mold of a Woody Hayes or Bo Schembechler, influences that are obviously imprinted on Jim Harbaugh‘s coaching philosophy. I hate to see the top ranked Pac-10 team go down, but Stanford looks like the better team.

Purdue’s Marve Out
Purdue’s starting quarterback Robert Marve is likely to be out after suffering a torn ACL in the same knee he had problems with last year. Redshirt freshman Rob Henry is expected to take over if the MRI reveals surgery is needed. On two occasions this year, Marve has went out with the injury costing Purdue backers, first against Ball State where they won but didn’t cover and then Saturday where they were humiliated at home by lowly Toledo as 12-point favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 05:57 PM

Early Surprises

With the college football campaign having completed the first month of its season, some surprising team trends have emerged, both good and bad. Following are some early-season surprises and disappointments, and their prospects for continuing along similar straight-up and point-spread paths.
Pleasant Surprises

Arizona (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread)...Most figured the Wildcats could probably contend in the Pac-10 this season. But skeptics wondered if UA could clear the sort of big-game hurdles that impeded them last season and cost the program a chance to appear in its first-ever Rose Bowl (the Cats are still the only Pac-10 team never to do so). But wins over Iowa and Cal indicate this Arizona edition is likely made of sterner stuff than other recent Tucson versions. QB Nick Foles has emerged as one of the nation’s best, and newcomers along Mike Stoops’ defense have stepped in to contribute immediately.

Auburn (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)...Like Arizona, most figured the Tigers to be representative and on their way to another bowl. To step up to the next level, however, would require transfer QB Cam Newton to immediately step in and take ownership of the signal-caller position for o.c. Gus Malzahn’s progressive spread. Newton has endured a few bumps along the way but seems to possess the sort of big-play component at QB that Auburn has missed in recent seasons. Consecutive wins over rugged Mississippi State, Clemson, and South Carolina squads has Auburn poised to soon enter the Top 10 and given folks on the plains reason to believe Gene Chizik’s men can challenge Alabama and LSU for SEC West supremacy.

East Carolina (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)...Nobody was expecting too much from a Pirates team that was gutted by graduation, needed to find a new QB, and, by the way, was welcoming in a new coach and staff (alum Ruffin McNeill, most recently Texas Tech’s d.c.). But thus far, the offense has been percolated behind Boston College transfer QB Dominique Davis, who has thrown for 9 TD passes in the first three games. ECU is scoring 42 ppg and suddenly figures in the C-USA discussion with conference favorite Houston now minus QB Case Keenum for the rest of the season.

Michigan (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)...Now, this is what Wolverine fans were expecting when hiring Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia, with the old, Pat White-led spread options finally resurfacing this month in Ann Arbor with dynamic soph QB Denard Robinson emerging as an early Heisman sleeper. Robinson was taken out in the first half last week against Bowling Green with a knee injury, but early reports indicate it’s not serious, with a good chance Robinson is available for Saturday’s Big Ten opener at Indiana. There are still some legitimate concerns about the Wolverine defense that has not been up to past standards for the last couple of seasons, but the presence of the dynamic Robinson should give Michigan a puncher’s chance against anybody (Ohio State included). In a way, it’s nice to have Michigan back in the rankings after an extended absence.

NC State (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)...Who would have guessed the Wolfpack to be the last remaining unbeaten in the ACC? But with a healthy QB Russell Wilson and an improved defense, the Wolfpack are flying into October and into the national rankings for the first time in recent memory. Keeping the playmaking Wilson healthy, however, will be key if NCST wants to continue its magical run.

San Diego State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)... Only a fluky last-minute 68-yard TD pass by Missouri is keeping the Aztecs from an unbeaten straight up and against the spread ledger in September. Otherwise, HC Brady Hoke looks as if he is quickly resurrecting SDSU much as he did with Ball State in the MAC a few years earlier. The Aztecs have been searching for an infantry diversion and might have found one in RS frosh RB Ronnie Hillman, who gained 223 YR at Mizzou and is already at 532 YR through just four games. He has emerged as a valuable complement to rifle-armed QB Ryan Lindley and finally provided the sort of balance we haven’t seen from SDSU attacks since the days of Marshall Faulk in the early '90s.

Stanford (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)...We’re serious, Stanford might be the best team in the country! There will be a lot more believers if the Cardinal, as it did last season, can beat Oregon again this Saturday, but regardless, the restoration job done by HC Jim Harbaugh is nothing short of sensational, as anyone who saw Walt Harris’ 2006 version of the Tree (which finished 1-11) can attest. Harbaugh, who doesn’t seem to mind running up scores, has reintroduced some old-fashioned concepts, featuring fullbacks who can run the ball and tight ends who can block, mixed in with a sophisticated offensive formula piloted by the Cardinal’s second stealth Heisman candidate in as many years, QB Andrew Luck, after RB Toby Gerhart came oh-so-close a year ago. Harbaugh has effectively replaced Gerhart with a RB-by-committee approach, and the overall athleticism on the roster has been upgraded to the point where Stanford’s stop unit can effectively implement some of the progressive schemes introduced by a defensive staff loaded with NFL experience. And since Harbaugh (whom many Pac-10 sources believe will be coaching in the NFL next year) seems to enjoy piling on the scores, the Cardinal could continue as a point-spread force.

Virginia (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)...Nobody was expecting much from the Cavs, picked by most at the bottom of the ACC’s Coastal Division. But it was evident rather early that new HC Mike London, a former Cav and off a highly-successful two-year stint leading Richmond (which won the FCS crown in 2008), knows what he’s doing. He’s reintroduced a more-physical component to the offense, which now is apt to line up in an old-fashioned I formation featuring bruising 255-lb. RB Keith Payne, welcomed back to the program after running afoul of London predecessor Al Groh. The eye-opener was outgaining and outhitting Southern Cal in a close 17-14 loss that the Cavs could have easily won back on September 11.

Disappointments

Boston College (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)...Sluggish wins and non-covers vs. Weber State and Kent State were warning signs to Eagles fans that BC might be starting to slip from its recent perch. And last Saturday’s 19-0 shutout home loss against Virginia Tech confirmed some of those fears, especially as they relate to a choppy offense that had to bench QB Dave Shinskie vs. the Hokies. Now, HC Frank Spaziani says that either soph Mike Marscovetra or true frosh Chase Rettig will get the start this Saturday vs. visiting Notre Dame. But with the offense’s problems appearing acute, the Eagles are going to have trouble putting enough points on the board to pull away from anybody.

BYU (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Things have gone rather pear-shaped for the Cougars, who were in the news for some different reasons when the season began. The school’s controversial abandonment of the Mountain West for independent status in football and membership in the smaller WCC for the rest of its sports still has many scratching their heads out west. Now, however, that news has been replaced in Provo by a troubling slump that’s seen the Cougs beaten soundly in three straight games by good (but not great) opposition. Moreover, Utah State transfer QB Riley Nelson, part of HC Bronco Mendenhall’s QB rotation, is out for the season with a shoulder injury, forcing touted (but green) true freshman Jake Heaps into the lineup full-time. The thought in summer was that Heaps could ease into the eventual starting role by splitting snaps with Nelson, the more mobile of the two. But Heaps’ learning curve is now being accelerated with Nelson’s injury. There have been some other problems as well for the Cougs, who have not adequately replaced RB Harvey Unga, thrown out of school in spring. The defense has also faltered, especially vs. the rush, where Mendenhall’s usually stout stop unit ranks a woeful 119th, allowing 264 ypg.

Duke (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)...Where’s the defense? We can excuse the Blue Devils for getting pancaked by top-ranked Alabama, 62-13, back on Sept. 18. But allowing Army to bludgeon you 35-21 in Durham (and the game wasn’t that close) is a major red flag, as was allowing Wake Forest to score 54 points in a wild shootout loss at Winston-Salem on September 11. Duke now ranks 118th out of 120 on total defense, making hard for impressive new QB Sean Renfree (who regressed in the loss to West Point) to carry the Blue Devils’ hopes on his shoulders alone.

Georgia (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Is HC Mark Richt really in trouble? Dissatisfaction began to creep into Bulldog Nation in 2008, when Georgia was considered to have significantly underachieved after having been a chic national champion selection entering the campaign. And Georgia could do no better than minor bowl territory last season. Now, that might even be a stretch after three consecutive defeats and the teeth of the SEC schedule still to come. The Dawgs have missed suspended WR A.J. Green, one of the best big-play threats in the ACC, and RS frosh QB Aaron Murray is still learning the ropes. Green will return this week at Colorado, but inept offensive performances at South Carolina and Mississippi State have SEC sources what Georgia might do if the unthinkable (a losing season, perhaps?) happens in Athens.

Georgia Tech (2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)...Some ACC sources are beginning to wonder if the rest of the league is beginning to catch up with HC Paul Johnson and his spread option tactics. The Jackets have been a difficult change-of-pace for ACC foes to deal with in recent years, but with QB Joshua (don’t call me Josh) Nesbitt remaining one-dimensional and the aerial diversion still just a rumor with the Ramblin’ Wreck, Tech is showing signs of erosion, losing heavily last week at home vs. better-balanced NC State, and beaten by double-digit dog Kansas two weeks ago. And with the defense seeming to lack its customary playmakers, Johnson’s noted game management skills and shrewd scheming are going to be more necessary than ever to keep GT in the ACC hunt.

Minnesota (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)...Were it not for Middle Tennessee being without suspended QB Dwight Dasher in the opener at Murfreesboro, we wonder if there would be any suspense left in the matter of HC Tim Brewster lasting beyond this season. Roundly considered to be in a must-win situation entering 2010, Brewster’s Gophers have already lost to South Dakota and Northern Illinois, both at Minneapolis, with the teeth of the Big Ten schedule still to come. If Minnesota keeps losing, the question by mid-October will not be if Brewster will return in 2011, but whether he can last the rest of this season.

Ole Miss (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)...We’ll put a qualifier on this one, because events last Saturday in Oxford indicate there still might be time for the Rebels to salvage something from this season. That wild 55-38 win over Fresno State illustrated what many SEC watchers had indicated in earlier weeks, that HC Houston Nutt would be better served by integrating punishing RB Brandon Bolden into the offense instead of revolving everything around Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli. Bolden (gaining 7.1 yards per pop) exploded for a career-high 228 YR vs. Fresno, re-calibrating an attack that was falling too much in love with Masoli and the spread in earlier weeks, to the point it couldn’t convert short-yardage run situations. Still, more-challenging SEC dates await, and Masoli has yet to prove the messiah many expected when he made his surprise decision to move to Ole Miss in the summer. Remember, this was expected to be something of a rebuilding year at Ole Miss before Masoli arrived, perhaps fueling unrealistically heightening expectations.

New Mexico (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)...It’s hard to underachieve when nobody expects much from your team. But, meet the Lobos, who have been worse than could be imagined, allowing 56 ppg and never closer than 35 points in their first four games. And there has been nothing deceiving about those nightmare stats...the Lobos "D" really is that bad. The vultures are beginning to circle in Albuquerque, as under most circumstances the disastrous regime of 2nd-year HC Mike Locksley would be humanely terminated. But word from Mountain West sources is that Locksley’s buyout for the remaining three-plus years on his deal is a steep one (nearly $3 million), and unless an "angel" booster steps forward, the school is likely going to have to live with Locksley a while longer. And this is what they wanted when getting rid of Rocky Long?

Texas (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)...There’s still time for the Longhorns to put their season back on track, but last week’s 34-12 home loss to UCLA was a red flag for any Texas-exes who are expecting another trip to the BCS title game. Those hopes are mostly shot already and can be put to rest completely if Texas can’t beat Oklahoma this week in Dallas. It doesn’t get any easier after the Sooner game, either, with revenge-minded Nebraska next on deck (at Lincoln) Oct. 16, which means Texas might have to adjust its postseason sights to the Alamo or Insight Bowls if it can’t find some traction, and quickly. The Horns also didn’t put 60 minutes of solid football together in any of their first three games vs. Rice, Wyoming, or Texas Tech. Mack Brown has been discouraged by the offense’s inability to generate a consistent rushing threat (which was an emphasis throughout the offseason), and the jury remains out on QB Garrett Gilbert, whose slow delivery telegraphs many of his passes (especially on intermediate and deeper routes). We’ll see how Texas reacts to the physical beat-down administered by the underdog Bruins, which Brown called "a real rear-end kicking."

Wake Forest (2-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)...This looks like an old Wake Forest team, slowish on defense and minus playmakers on offense. And it appears to be steep drop-off from the competitive Demon Deacons sides we have come to expect from HC Jim Grobe in recent years. Replacing 4-year starting QB Riley Skinner has proven to be a challenge, as Grobe has alternated several new faces (most specifically Tanner Price and Ted Stachitas) with

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 05:58 PM

Style Points Galore

What next? Dick Button, Scott Hamilton and Peggy Fleming joining Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Lee Corso on ESPN College Game Day? Forgive us for that bit of tongue-in-cheek, but with all of the recent talk about "style points" in college football and the polls, we couldn’t help but make reference to figure skating. After all, how a team looks when it wins is almost as important as winning a game, period, these days. Especially when we’re talking about potential BCS Busters who have to hit all of their triple Lutzes and Salchows in order to gain enough notice in the polls to have a chance at a coveted BCS invitation. Or, in an absolute best-case scenario, perhaps even a ticket into the BCS title game.

Running up scores to curry favor with pollsters, however, is hardly a new development. And it is an unfortunate byproduct of a college football system that continues to jump through countless hoops in order to avoid the sort of playoff system that most fans desire. Instead, teams playing the "poll game" are often compelled to dispel sportsmanship and run up scores on overmatched opposition whenever possible, hoping for a possible "bump" in the polls. Just ask Penn State HC Joe Paterno, who still believes his 1994 Nittany Lions (in the last pre-Bowl Alliance or BCS season) were denied at least a share of the national title with Nebraska because of an early-November contest at Indiana in which the Hoosiers scored a pair of late TDs (the last on a 40-yard Hail Mary bomb as the game clock expired) and a 2-point conversion to cut Paterno’s final win margin to only 35-29. Because the scoreline apparently wasn’t impressive enough, Penn State relinquished the top spot in the USA Today coaches poll to the Huskers, who routed Kansas 45-17 the same day and continued unbeaten (and stayed number one) through their Orange Bowl win vs. Miami.

Paterno’s Nittany Lions never reclaimed the top spot in the polls that season, and thereafter the strategy of "Shades" changed noticeably, as he was no longer going to be reluctant to run up scores if it could help his team in the polls. That included the final regular-season game of the ‘94 campaign, when instead of displaying some customary grace at the end of a heavy win over Michigan State in what was be longtime Spartan HC George Perles’ farewell game, Paterno had starting QB Kerry Collins in the game deep in the 4th Q, throwing bombs to increase an already sizable Nittany Lion edge that would mushroom to 59-31. The repercussions of letting Indiana close the final margin left an indelible impression on the mind of Paterno, who has run up scores countless of times in the fifteen years since. Although JoePa is hardly the worst offenders among college coaches guilty of such transgressions.

Instances of teams playing the "poll game" go back much further than 1994. Indeed, there might have never been a better example than 1966, when Ara Parseghian’s Notre Dame controversially (but wisely) settled for a 10-10 tie in the epic "Game of the Century" November 19 at Michigan State, with knowledge that the Irish still had one more game left on their schedule (vs. Southern Cal) to better sell the idea to pollsters that Notre Dame should be number one. Which the Irish did beyond a doubt in their final game, burying the Trojans 51-0. Moreover, Parseghian made no bones about his intentions. "I would say we went out to prove we are number one," said Parseghian after handing SC its worst-ever defeat in an epic bombardment ironically led by ND’s backup QB, Coley O'Brien, who threw 3 TD passes. "And we did, didn’t we?" Notre Dame. not surprisingly, subsequently topped the final polls in 1966.

Most of the attention for the current interpretation of such developments seems to involve non-"Big Six" entries such as Boise State, TCU, and Utah, which risk losing their places in the BCS Buster "queue" if their wins aren’t impressive enough each week. And, for the most part, the Broncos, Horned Frogs, and Utes have been taking care of business lately. Which is a necessity, considering the lengths the "style points" debate has progressed, reflected in how several media members, and some Boise State players, resorted to playing the "score comparison" between the Broncos and TCU against Oregon State, an early-season victim of both. After last week’s 37-24 win over the Beavers, Boise QB Kellen Moore reminded scribes that the Broncos had defeated OSU a bit more soundly than did the Horned Frogs (a 30-21 winner over the Beavs back on September 4). "They (OSU) played neck-and-neck with TCU earlier in the season," Moore reminded reporters after last week’s 13-point Boise win. Although some wire service reports of the Broncos’ win over Oregon State wondered if Boise hadn’t cost itself some "style points" when committing 8 often-costly penalties against the Beavers. For better or worse, the magnifying glasses are out in force for the hopeful BCS Busters.

But "style points" apply to all high-rated teams, and some of those have delivered impressive point-spread results in recent times...especially when laying heavy lumber. Following is a quick rundown of some of last week’s ranked college teams who have displayed pronounced point-spread trends as a favorite in recent times.

Alabama...Nick Saban didn’t quite get the number last week at Arkansas, but his teams are still 16-6 their last 22 as chalk, including 4-0 as a double-digit favorite away from home. The Tide has also covered 6 of its last 7 laying 20 or more. Ohio State...Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes are now 50-22 vs. the line since mid 2004, including covers in 10 of their last 13 as double-digit chalk. The Buckeyes have also covered 6 of their last 7 laying 20 or more. Boise State...The Broncos have long been a profitable favorite, standing 66-38 as chalk the past decade, as well as 23-10 their last 33 vs. the line overall. Boise is also 20-9 as blue carpet chalk since mid ‘04, and has covered 10 of its last 15 laying 20 or more. TCU...The Frogs have been especially tough as home favorites lately, standing 14-4 as Amon Carter Stadium chalk since ‘07, and 11-3 as DD chalk at Fort Worth that span. Oregon...The Ducks are 13-5 as DD chalk since 2007, and like Bama & Ohio State have covered 6 of their last 7 laying 20 or more. Oklahoma...The Sooners were dynamite vs. the number with QB Sam Bradford at the controls in 2008, covering 9 of 10 as DD chalk, but they’re only 2-7 in that role since. Florida...Urban Meyer is now 29-13 his last 42 as chalk since late ‘06, including 13-7 laying DDs at The Swamp. Utah...The Utes are now 14-6 laying DDs since 2007. Utah has also covered 9 of its last 10 laying 20 or more since early in the 2008 campaign. Stanford...It hasn’t taken HC Jim Harbaugh long to learn how the "style" game is played. He’s now 10-3 his last 13 as chalk and has covered five straight laying DDs.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 06:00 PM

NCAAF Betting: Spartans and Badgers clash

Is Michigan State really good this season?

That question gets answered Saturday when the 24th-ranked Spartans host 11th-ranked Wisconsin at 12:30 p.m. (PT) with ESPN televising.

The Badgers currently are 1 ½-point college football betting favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 52.

Both teams are 4-0 and off easy home victories against cupcake non-‘lined’ opponents. It’s the Big Ten Conference opener for each team.

Wisconsin rolled past Austin Peay, 70-3, scoring the first seven times its offense had the ball. It was the most points the Badgers have scored in the modern era eclipsing the 69 they scored against New Mexico State in 1962. The Badgers were 45-point favorites.

The Spartans whipped Northern Colorado, 45-7, as 33 ½-point home favorites. Michigan State piled up 532 yards of offense, including 201 of them on the ground.

The Spartans have rushed for 200 yards in all four of their games, averaging 231.5 yards on the ground. They have one of the best three-headed rushing committees in the country with Edwin Baker, Le’Veon Bell and Larry Caper.

Michigan State is 12-2 when running for 200 yards and 20-7 when out-rushing its opponent since 2007.

Wisconsin, though, will be the most physical team the Spartans have faced after defeating Northern Colorado, Notre Dame 34-31 in overtime but failing to cover a 3 ½-point home spread, Florida Atlantic 30-17 as 26-point favorites at Ford Field in Detroit and Western Michigan, 38-14, covering as 22 ½-point home ‘chalk.’

The Spartans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games, including 2-2 ATS this season.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at *** Global.

The Badgers are holding foes to 94.5 yards per game on the ground, 15th-best in the nation. Wisconsin, though, is without sophomore linebacker Chris Borland, who was the Big Ten Conference Defensive Freshman of the Year last season. He’s out of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Wisconsin also has a strong rushing attack led by John Clay, who gained 118 yards in 11 carries against Austin Peay. The Badgers were able to rest key players, including injured wide receiver Nick Toon (turf toe).

Michigan State has a strong run defense, too, ranking 10th holding foes to 85.2 yards rushing. The Badgers have failed to cover in four of their last five games versus teams with a winning record.

One of these games was two weeks ago against then undefeated Arizona, who the Badgers nipped, 20-19, as 11 ½-point home favorites. Wisconsin also defeated UNLV, 41-21, failing to cover as 20 ½-point road favorites and San Jose State, 27-14, as 38 ½-point home ‘chalk.’

Lack of a pass rush is a concern for Michigan State. Wisconsin has a strong offensive line and a good quarterback in Scott Tolzien. The Spartans also are without their head coach, Mark Dantonio, who suffered a heart attack a day after Michigan State edged Notre Dame. A time table has not been set on his return.

Wisconsin is 7-14 lifetime in East Lansing, Michigan. The Badgers last played there two years ago and were nipped 25-24 as six-point underdogs. The Badgers beat the Spartans at home last season, 38-30, covering as two-point favorites.

After playing Michigan State, the Badgers are home to Minnesota and then Ohio State. Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road matchups versus an opponent with a winning home mark.

The Spartans go on the road for the first time next week, although they’ll remain in state taking on Michigan.

Both teams have recent ‘over’ tendencies. The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of Wisconsin’s last 10 Big Ten contests, while the Spartans have gone ‘over’ in seven of their past nine overall games. The ‘over’ has cashed in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 06:01 PM

NCAAF Betting: A review and preview

Now we know why UCLA and the Pac-10 Conference were so anxious to get Texas into the conference. Not only did the Bruins cover as 15 ½-point road underdogs Saturday, but they beat the Longhorns, 34-12.

It's the most accomplished win in coach Rick Neuheisel's three seasons at UCLA and follows the Bruins' 31-13 victory last week as 3 ½-point underdogs against Houston.

Let's not overreact to this one game, though. UCLA had only 27 yards passing and was out-gained, 349-291, by the Longhorns.

Texas hadn't been playing that well despite its previous 3-0 record. The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS. Texas probably also was looking ahead to this Saturday's Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, its biggest regular-season game.

Top NCAAF Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

The Mid-American Conference had a rough Saturday, going 3-8 SU. Michigan beat Bowling Green, 65-21, Iowa shut out Ball State 45-0, Ohio State trounced Eastern Michigan, 73-20 and Missouri hammered Miami of Ohio, 51-13.

Still, MAC teams are a semi-respectable 14-16 ATS in non-conference football betting matchups versus ‘board' teams. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its three MAC matchups this season, including losing to Toledo, 31-20, as 11-point favorites this past Saturday.

Texas El-Paso celebrated the return of star running back Donald Buckram by registering a 16-13 victory against Memphis. Buckram rushed for 59 yards on 13 carries.

Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech's star running back, missed Saturday's 19-0 victory over Boston College due to a hamstring injury.

Connecticut didn't have its starting tailback, Jordan Todman, during its 45-21 win against Buffalo. Todman missed the game with an arm injury. However, Robbie Frey picked up the slack rushing for 113 yards on 12 carries and scoring a touchdown.

Wisconsin rolled past Austin Peay despite missing two of its best wide receivers, Nick Toon (turf toe) and Nick Gilreath (concussion).

Both of Michigan's quarterbacks, Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier, were injured in the Wolverines' victory against Bowling Green. Both suffered knee injuries, but were optimistic they would be able to play this Saturday against Indiana.

Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram was back in style during Alabama's 24-20 win over Arkansas. Ingram, who missed the Tide's first two games, rushed for 157 yards and scored two touchdowns.

Middle Tennessee State quarterback Dwight Dasher is eligible to play his first game of the season when the Blue Raiders host Troy on Oct. 5. Dasher, the preseason Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year, missed the first four games serving a four-game NCAA suspension for accepting a loan.

Top NCAAF Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Texas-Oklahoma isn't the only big game next Saturday. Undefeated North Carolina State hosts Virginia Tech in a key ACC matchup. North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson is having a monster season, throwing for 1,112 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception.

Tennessee is at LSU, where the Tigers have failed to cover 12 of the past 17 times they've been favored.

The biggest SEC matchup, though, is Florida at Alabama. The Tide has looked much better this season than Florida, but the Gators are 19-7 ATS in their past 26 ‘board' games.

Boise State is a huge favorite at New Mexico State. The Broncos failed to cover as 17 ½-point home favorites in a 37-24 home victory versus Oregon State this past Saturday, but still are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 ‘lined' games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 06:02 PM

NCAAF Odds: Aggies, Cowboys still perfect

As expected, the Texas A&M Aggies and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both 3-0 headed into Thursday's ESPN-televised Big 12 opener in Stillwater.

But while the Cowboys rolled two weeks ago to a 65-28, 722-yard obliteration of Tulsa, the Aggies staggered to the finish line during a tough win over Florida International.

These were two programs that figured to be going in opposite directions entering the season. Texas A&M was up, while OSU was down. But the Cowboys' offensive wizardry puts a different perspective on a game that will by key if either upstart is to contend in the rugged Big 12 South.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Oklahoma State is second in the nation in total offense (596 yards per game), first in passing offense (408 yards per game) and second in points per game with 57.

The Cowboys' offense has exceeded any reasonable expectations during coordinator Dana Holgerson's first year. Though Holgerson led the Houston Cougars to a No. 1 national ranking in passing offense and scoring offense a year ago, his first three games guiding the OSU offense has fans buzzing, and for good reason.

The Aggies rival the Cowboys in their offensive balance, ranking 27th nationally in rushing and 14th in passing. A&M is also 18th in points per game at 41 per outing.

Senior quarterback Jerrod Johnson went 52-of-78 for 671 yards with six touchdowns and no picks through the Aggies' first two games, but he struggled mightily against the Golden Panthers.

With Johnson and the offensive line struggling, the A&M running game saved the night. "A Boy Named" Christine Michael has three consecutive 100-yard games, and averages 5.8 yards per carry. Backup Cyrus Gray averaged 4.9 yards per carry and has 194 total yards.

First-year Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter appears to have his unit ahead of projections. The Aggies would have likely lost to FIU without his unit's work keeping the game close. But beating Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech and FIU likely hasn't provided a true picture of where the Aggies are, particularly for a defense that ranks 10th nationally.

Meanwhile, OSU is currently last in the conference in scoring defense and 84th nationally by allowing 27.7 points per game.

College football betting ‘cappers that depend on trends and angles will likely be jumping on the Cowboys bandwagon.

The Aggies have failed to cash in 16 of their past 19 road openers. They are 17-27 SU and 16-28 ATS in their past 44 Big 12 games on the highway. In addition, A&M is 9-23 as road short-enders overall and 10-21-1 as single-digit pups.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

OSU has grabbed the green in five straight as home favorites of between 3 ½ and 10 points and in 11 of its last 15 in Stillwater as favorites overall.

The Cowboys prevailed last season at Kyle Field as five-point favorites, 36-31, and trounced the Aggies in the last meeting at Boone Pickens Stadium, 56-28.

These conference rivals have combined to average 63 points per meeting since 2002, with five of the last six clashes topping the number. That includes the last four at Oklahoma State.

A&M has jumped the number in six of its last seven Thursday tests, while OSU has ended on the high side in five straight following a bye week.

Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best odds product opened the Cowboys as 3 ½-point favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 06:03 PM

NCAAF Odds: Tigers host Mountaineers

With a chance of rain, the game will be held Saturday at 9 p.m. ET. It will be televised on ESPN2 and ESPN3. Sports books give LSU as a 10-point favorite in this matchup over the visiting Mountaineers. The ‘total' is set to 42 ½ points by college football handicappers.

Both teams stand at 3-0 and boast impressive defenses. In this college football pick, you have to take into consideration home field advantage, which could be huge for the Tigers. This is expected to be a tough battle for these two top-25 clubs.

LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson has been a dark spot for the Tigers, throwing for only 114.7 yards per game. They will be looking for impressive running from Stevan Ridley and Russell Shepard to continue, who average 5.8 and 7.5 yards per carry, respectively.

For West Virginia, the offense is looking extremely capable. The Big East's leading receiver, Tavon Austin, combines with Stedman Bailey and Jock Sanders to form a talented receiving corps. It has allowed quarterback Geno Smith to pass for 800 yards and seven touchdowns at a 70.3 completion percentage.

Offensively for West Virginia running back Noel Devine will be crucial. He has posted three games of over 100 yards rushing, where he has 354 yards rushing and two touchdowns. On defense, LSU has only allowed 2.2 yards per carry, so something will have to give in this tough college football odds showdown.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at Betonline.

The running game for LSU is a similar story. Running back Stevan Ridley has rushed for 318 yards, but the West Virginia defense has only allowed 62.7 rushing yards per game.

Saturday will tell the story, as the stats can be misleading. LSU has only had one high-pressure game, against No. 18 North Carolina who was missing a lot of starters. LSU won easily against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Similarly, West Virginia made easy work of Coastal Carolina and Maryland, with an overtime victory against Marshall.

Although an upset is not out of the question, the ‘pick' in this game seems to concentrate on whether LSU will be able to beat West Virginia by 10 points. At home and with a tough defense, this is reasonable to believe.

However, there is a lot of talent and potential in the West Virginia offense. The passing and rushing attack has been clicking well so far for the Mountaineers, and it seems likely that this will be a very close game. You also have to give credit to West Virginia's defense.

Many are split on whether to take the points or a considerable LSU victory in this college football betting showdown. With passing inefficiencies for LSU and a dangerous West Virginia offense, the two defenses may reveal that the safest ‘pick' in this matchup is taking the points for a close game.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2010, 11:35 PM

Virginia Tech favored at unbeaten NC State

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (2-2)
at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Virginia Tech -4, Total: 55

Two teams coming off impressive ACC road games meet in Raleigh on Saturday. Virginia Tech shut out Boston College 19-0 as Tyrod Taylor went 16-for-21 for 237 yards. NC State also received an excellent performance from its quarterback last week. Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 368 yards with four total touchdowns in the Wolfpack’s 45-28 pounding of Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech will likely be without RB Ryan Williams who missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Williams scored four touchdowns against NC State last year. Backup RBs David Wilson and Darren Evans will have to do better than their 30-carry, 97-yard combined effort against BC to outscore the high-flying Wolfpack offense.

Wilson has been tremendous this season with 278 passing YPG, 11 touchdowns and just one INT. Five different NC State players have more than 10 catches already. Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes have been a two-headed rushing monster, each averaging 4.6 YPC. Combined, the duo has 99 carries for 455 yards and six touchdowns.

The Hokies crushed NC State 38-10 last year and also won the previous meeting in 2005 by a 20-18 score, but the FoxSheets like the home dog NC State in this game:

Play On - Home underdogs (NC STATE) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season. (35-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).

FoxSheets also expects the game to go Under with a trend that applies to both schools.

Play Under - Any team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH, NC STATE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, in October games. (239-148 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.8%, +76.2 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:49 PM

NCAAF Odds: Iowa, Penn St start Big Ten slate

Two Big Ten title contenders, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions, begin their conference season in a Saturday night showdown.

Bookmaker.com has No. 17 Iowa as seven-point home favorites over No. 22 Penn State. The total is 41 points.

No. 2 Ohio State, No. 11 Wisconsin, No. 19 Michigan and No. 24 Michigan State are the other ranked conference teams. Iowa has a favorable Big Ten schedule with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State at home.

Top NFL Betting Odds at EasyStreatsSports.

Iowa (3-1 straight-up, 2-2 against the college football betting spread) opened the season ranked No. 9 in the AP poll. Home wins over Eastern Illinois (37-7) and Iowa State (35-7) were impressive, but the first real test was Sept. 18 at No. 24 Arizona.

Game-time temperatures were around 100 degrees and Arizona bolted to a 27-7 lead. Iowa battled back to a fourth-quarter tie, but ultimately left the desert as losers (34-27). That likely ended Iowa’s national title hopes, with a 45-0 win last week over Ball State doing little to ease the pain.

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi doesn’t possess elite physical skills, but he’s a winner. Iowa is 21-5 SU with him as a starter and he has nine touchdowns versus one interception on the year.

There are some issues at running back. Jewel Hampton was expected to share carries with Adam Robinson, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury against Arizona, as did backup linebacker Bruce Davis.

Brandon Wegher (641 rushing yards last year) has left the team for personal reasons, and Paki O’Meara (concussion) is questionable. Robinson may have to carry the load by himself.

Top NFL Betting Odds at EasyStreatsSports.

Iowa’s defense was top-10 nationally last year in points (15.4) and yards (276.5) per game. Defensive linemen Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard were two of eight returning starters and both be playing on Sunday’s next year.

The defense ranks first nationally in yards allowed (227.5) and fifth in points (12 PPG), although some of the reason is the easy schedule outside of Arizona.

Nittany Lions’ (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) coach Joe Paterno must be having some bad flashbacks. Iowa beat them 24-23 at home two years ago and 21-10 in Happy Valley last year (outscoring them 16-0 in the fourth quarter).

Penn State was a 7 ½- and 9 ½-point favorite respectively as it was undefeated and ranked in the top-5 each time. Iowa is 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) against Penn State in the last eight meetings.

Paterno would love to turn the tables and beat Iowa as an ‘dog. That will take a huge effort from Robert Bolden, the first true freshman quarterback to start an opener in Paterno’s 45 years coaching the team.

Bolden struggled (13-of-29, 144 passing yards, two interceptions) in a 24-3 loss at top-ranked Alabama on Sept. 11. He played well overall (65 percent completions) in home wins over Youngstown State (44-14), Kent State (24-0) and Temple (22-13).

Bolden does have five picks and Iowa will look to pressure him into bad throws. Penn State needs a big game from running back Evan Royster. He had 187 rushing yards in the comeback win over Temple after just 110 in the first three weeks combined. Iowa held him to 69 yards on 17 carries last year.

The Nittany Lions’ defense is surrendering 12.8 PPG on the season, although Alabama put up 24 points and 409 total yards. The front-four should be able to pressure Stanzi and hopefully force him to struggle like last year (135 passing yards, two picks).

Top NFL Betting Odds at EasyStreatsSports.

Penn State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road ‘dog. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in its last three games.

Penn State wide receiver Curtis Drake and linebacker Gerald Hodges are both out with leg injuries. Chima Okoli will make his first start at right tackle in place of Lou Eliades (torn ACL).

Kickoff is at 5:05 p.m. (PT) at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Weather should be clear and could dip into the 40s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:50 PM

NCAAF Odds: Alabama battles Florida Gators

The first round of the NCAA Football playoffs begins this Saturday at 5 p.m. (PT) on CBS as undefeated Florida visits the defending National Champions in Tuscaloosa.

Well, it sure seems that way.

The last two BCS Title games have gone through Florida and Alabama and with both teams at 4-0 – and with the possible exception of an upstart Auburn team poking their noses in – there doesn't seem to be any reason it won't happen a third time.

The Gators have been about as unimpressive as a team with a +94 scoring margin can be, but looked fantastic in a 48-14 win over their whipping boys from Kentucky. Alabama is coming off a tough win in Fayetteville and was bailed out only by Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett's love of throwing critical interceptions.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Yet, despite the one-week pendulum swing, Easy Street Sports has Alabama as an 8-point favorite with the 'total' set at 48) Florida hasn't seen such a number since a October 6, 2007 contest at LSU...a game the Gators lost but covered.

Considering UF's big-play potential – they are 19th in FBS scoring but 78th in yards from scrimmage – covering eight (or winning, for that matter) is not out of the question. Jeff Demps is aching, but Trey Burton took over his spot in the cleanup role with flying colors. UF will need one of the two to step it up again as Alabama hasn't lost a regular season game since 2007 and took everything Arkansas had to give.

Changing that trend will be difficult as Alabama boasts one of the most balanced offenses in the nation (28th in passing and 12th in rushing).

Offenses aside, the game trends towards the 'under.' Florida has gone 'under' in five of its last seven road games while 'Bama has gone 'under' the number in 12 of its last 17 SEC games, The Crimson Tide has also rolled to a 7-3-2 'under' mark in the last 12 games as chalk.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:52 PM

Big Ten Notes - Week 5

2 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 4-0 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
Saturday, October 2 – 11:00 AM CST – Big Ten Network
OSU: Last week: Defeated Ohio, 43-7
ILL: Last week: Bye

The Buckeyes are 7-0 (3-4 ATS) in their last seven trips to Champaign, winning by an average score of 29-11. This is their first road game of the season after sweeping their non-conference schedule (average margin of victory is 34 PPG). They opened as 18 point favorites and are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as double digit road favorites against Big Ten opponents.

Illinois struggled in their season opener against Missouri but bounced back with two consecutive wins against Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. They are coming off a bye week which gave injured players like cornerback Terry Hawthorne and receiver Eddie McGee time to rest up. Illinois is 1-21 as a double digit home underdog but has covered on six of the last nine occasions.

Illinois defeated 2007 #1 OSU and gave 2006 #1 OSU a real scare. They’ve had an extra week to prepare for this OSU squad that ranks in the top ten in both total offense and total defense. If Illinois can run the ball effectively (229 YPG) they might have a shot at covering against the Buckeyes.

#11 Wisconsin Badgers (4-0, 1-3 ATS) vs. #24 Michigan State Spartans (4-0, 2-2 ATS)
Saturday, October 2 – 2:30 PM CST – ABC or ESPN
UW: Last week: Defeated Austin Peay, 70-3
MSU: Last Week: Defeated Northern Colorado, 45-7

Wisconsin averages 258 rushing yards per game (10th in the nation) behind their three headed rushing attack of John Clay (125 YPG), James White (7.9 YPC avg) and Montee Ball (3 TD’s). They will be tested against this MSU defense that allows just 85 rushing YPG. UW ran for 193 yards in their 38-30 come-from-behind victory over MSU last year. Wide receivers Nick Toon (foot) and David Gilreath (concussion) return to the starting line-up for the Badgers.

Michigan State’s offense has looked fantastic in their 4-0 start. QB Cousins is completing 67% of his passes and RB’s Bell and Baker have combined to run for 845 yards (8.1 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. This will be the first good defense that they face as UW ranks 16th in total defense, surrendering just 265 YPG. Head coach Dantonio will return after a one-week absence following a mild heart attack.

Wisconsin is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten road games and just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten road games as a favorite. They opened as 2 point favorites against Michigan State, whom they’ve struggled against in the past. They are just 2-8 SU on the road against MSU in the past 10 but have covered 3 of the past 4. MSU turned the ball over four times against UW last year and allowed the Badgers to control the ball for 17 more minutes. The Spartans have revenge on their mind and the return of Dantonio gives them a boost.

#22 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1, 1-3 ATS) vs. #17 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Saturday, October 2 – 7:00 PM CST – ABC or ESPN
PSU: Last week: Defeated Temple, 22-13
IOWA: Last week: Defeated Ball State, 45-0

Iowa bounced back from their loss to Arizona with a shutout win over Ball State. They allowed just 112 total yards and now rank #1 in total defense. Their offense will be thin at RB, (Hampton, Wegher, and O’Meara all out) but senior QB Stanzi is quietly playing some of the best football of his career. He’s averaging more than 15 yards per completion with 9 touchdowns and just one INT. They open as 7 point favorites against PSU.

Joe Pa’s squad found a way to beat Temple behind a career best 187 rushing yards from RB Evan Royster. While the Nittany Lions' offense has shown inconsistencies under true freshman quarterback Rob Bolden, the defense has played at its usual high level. The unit ranks eighth nationally in points allowed. PSU has revenge on their mind after Iowa upset the #4 Nittany Lions in Happy Valley last season.

Iowa has covered in eight of the past ten meetings (six of last ten meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less) against Penn State. PSU frosh QB Bolden struggled in his only road start so far – a 3-24 loss to Alabama – and Kinnick Stadium is never an easy place to play and this is Iowa’s homecoming game. PSU has covered in six of their last seven Big Ten road games but Iowa is 13-3 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or less.

#19 Michigan Wolverines (4-0, 3-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Saturday, October 2 – 2:30 PM CST – ESPNU
UM: Last week: Defeated Bowling Green, 65-21
IU: Defeated Akron, 35-20

Michigan opened as 14 point favorites but that number has shrunk to 10 since. Heisman front-runner QB Robinson should be fine following his knee injury Saturday and leads the nations #2 offense against this Indiana defense that struggled against Western Kentucky and Akron. The Wolverines are 15-1 in their last 16 visits to Bloomington and have covered 6 of the last 7 times.

Indiana’s offense is averaging 41 PPG behind the Big Ten's leading passer, Ben Chappell (296.7 YPG, 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s). Their defense is allowing 177 rush YPG (5.2 YPC) and haven’t faced an offense with the speed and athleticism of Michigan. Their offense will have a good chance of keeping this game close as MU’s defense allows 400 YPG and 23 PPG.

IU is just 1-6 ATS in Big Ten openers while Michigan is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Big Ten road games. Michigan has won 16 straight meetings against the Hoosiers by an average margin of 21.2 PPG. But they only won by 3 points last season and were out-gained and needed a touchdown with 2:29 left to seal the victory.

Northwestern Wildcats (4-0, 2-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-3, 1-3 ATS)
Saturday, October 2 – 11:00 AM CST – Big Ten Network or ESPN
NU: Last week: Defeated Central Michigan, 30-25
MINN: Last week: Lost to Northern Illinois, 23-34

Northwestern aims for their third road win of the season as a 5 point favorite against a Minnesota squad that possesses the only losing record in the Big Ten. QB Dan Persa is completing 80% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and just one interception and has this NU offense averaging 419 YPG and 30 PPG. This offense could have another big day against this Gophers D that allowed 297 rushing yards (10.6 YPC) and 34 points to Northern Illinois last week.

Minnesota is in desperation mode after dropping three consecutive home games and absolutely needs this win on their homecoming. Coach Tim Brewster is under fire, and he needs to get things turned around fast against a team the Gophers beat last year. The Gophers were out-gained and trailing heading into the 4th quarter in 2009, but scored two late touchdowns to cover against the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 8-3 ATS the past 11 road trips to Minnesota. They aren’t often favored in Big Ten road games but are an impressive 7-3 ATS since 1995. Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Big Ten road openers.

Purdue Boilermakers (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
BYE WEEK
Last week: Lost to Toledo, 20-31

This couldn’t have been a better time for a bye week. Quarterback Marve's knee injury appears to be a torn ACL, and the junior likely will miss the rest of the season. Purdue’s biggest concern should be the defense which struggled against Toledo, the nation's worst offense. Next week they travel to Northwestern to kick-off conference play.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:53 PM

Beware of Traps - Week 5

We were so close to power shifts in college football last weekend that I was ready to dance around the office. Not a pretty sight, I’m sure, but that never came to fruition. Alabama survived in Fayetteville and the Nittany Lions finally got on track against Temple.

Close defeats like that can take a huge toll on teams full of young kids. Indiana was a perfect example of that last season. The Hoosiers were 3-0 and on the verge of a big win in Ann Arbor, but fell 36-33. That loss unraveled the team as they went 1-8 the rest of the way.

So will we see any glorious collapses begin this weekend? Let’s look at some of those teams that are cruising for a fading by the bettors.

Fallen Hooters…

I had a strong feeling that Temple would hold close against the Nittany Lions last week as a 13 ½-point road pup. The public was thinking the same as that line actually opened up at 16 ½ at the start of the week. The Owls looked like they were going to pay off on the money line by taking a 13-9 lead into halftime. Unfortunately for Al Golden’s team, Chester Stewart was picked off three times as Temple fell to the Nittany Lions 22-13. And you can be damn sure that PSU was lucky to win this game.

The Owls stay on the road this week as they head to West Point for a showdown with Army. Temple comes into the game as a five-point road “chalk” for this game. While that line make sense, I can’t help but think this is a great letdown position.

Army has an edge for this game with a running game that is eighth nationally by averaging 274.8 rushing yards per game this season. The Owls had no answer for Evan Royster and PSU’s ground game last week as they racked up 216 rushing yards. I can easily see the Cadets putting a real scare into Temple this weekend.

Wolverines and Revenge…

We already talked about how the Hoosiers lost last year at Michigan. Now Indiana has a chance to get some revenge against the Wolverines this weekend as a 10-point home pup. But Rich Rodriguez’s team might not be paying too much attention to the task at hand. That tends to happen when you have a rivalry showdown with the Spartans coming up the following week.

Now I understand that Denard Robinson is coming back from a knee injury, but should still be a force on the attack for the Wolverines. What is a concern in this game is Michigan’s pass defense. That unit is 105th against the pass, allowing 264.8 yards per game through the air.

Indiana’s Ben Chappell is the sixth most efficient quarterback in the nation (179.04) and is averaging 296.7 passing yards per game. And he threw for 270 yards last season in Ann Arbor in a game the Hoosier should have won. Don’t be shocked if IU keeps it close against the Wolverines in Bloomington.

Storm Warning…

Well, the Hurricanes had no problems in killing off Pittsburgh last week after a less than desirable effort in Columbus a few weeks back. Now Miami is a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Tigers as they start ACC play this weekend.

Miami fans are looking for revenge after Clemson beat them 40-37 in overtime last season at Sun Life Stadium. Of course, the Tigers needed a Herculean effort out of C.J. Spiller to get the win. Spiller won’t be bothering the ‘Canes here as he’s doing his best to make Buffalo worth paying attention to now.

The Tigers are coming into this game after getting a week off from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Auburn on Sept. 18. That time off helps Dabo Swinney rally his troops from what is a tough defeat.

Clemson also has history on its side in this game as they’ve covered the spread in all three meetings they have had against the Hurricanes. Plus, Miami has the hated Seminoles next weekend. And Randy Shannon’s team has gone 4-1 straight up but 1-4 against the spread in their last five games before taking on Florida State.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:56 PM

LV Rankings - Week 5

As we enter the second month of the college football season, it’s still a little early but we’re starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Twenty five schools out of 120 in the Bowl Subdivision own a perfect record of 4-0 or 3-0 and while a handful of those teams will be exposed in the next couple weeks, there are a couple flying under the radar and quite frankly they’re not getting much respect, especially at the betting counter.

One of those teams is North Carolina State (35), who isn’t even listed in the Top 30 of this week’s LV Rankings, created by former Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White.

After starting the season with four straight wins (3-1 ATS), the Wolfpack were recognized in the 23rd spot of the AP Poll. What’s scary is that quarterback Russell Wilson (59.9%, 1,112 yards, 11 TDs) hasn’t even played up to his potential this season, yet the offense is still clicking. And even though head coach Tom O’Brien has had three consecutive losing seasons in Raleigh, his experience and past success at Boston College seems to be producing results this year.

Last week’s road win at Georgia Tech (45-28) was impressive for the Wolfpack but this week’s test at home against Virginia Tech will be more telling. Frank Beamer and the Hokies are 2-2 after four games and aren’t even recognized in the national polls, but White has V-Tech listed 22nd in this week’s installment. With that being said, bettors can look to the “Unranked Favorite” angle on Saturday since the Hokies are laying four points to the Wolpack, on the road too.

And the ACC is no stranger to these types of situations according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Judd Hall. “During the 2009 campaign, there were 18 separate occasions in which a ranked team was posted as an underdog. And if you go back over the last three seasons, you’ll see that this has happened 46 times. The favorite has gone 28-18 straight up and 24-21-1 against the spread. In the sample of 46, you’ll see that the ACC has been the group with the most games in this situation with 13. In those contests, the unranked club went 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS,” explained Hall.

The N.C. State-Virginia Tech contest should be an interesting game for gamblers to handicap, but it’s still pretty low on the radar this weekend compared to other big-time matchups.

According to the LV Rankings, we have five games on Saturday that feature schools ranked by White going head-to-head.

(1) Alabama vs. (9) Florida
(5) Oregon vs. (6) Stanford
(8) Miami, Fl. at (28) Clemson
(11) Oklahoma vs. (16) Texas from Dallas
(13) Iowa vs. (17) Penn State

The Crimson Tide survived a scare against Arkansas (24-20) last Saturday but Nick Saban’s team still owns the highest power rating (118.9) from White. Alabama has been listed as a sound eight-point ‘chalk’ against Florida, who finally erupted last week against Kentucky (48-14).

We’ve talked about head coach Jim Harbaugh and Stanford’s impressive start (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) to the season but that will all be forgotten if the school doesn’t show up at Autzen Stadium this weekend. The Ducks (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) beat Arizona State (42-31) last weekend on the road, but anybody who watched that game knows Chip Kelly’s team is suspect. Still, Oregon is laying a touchdown at home with revenge on its mind.

Below is a complete breakdown of this week’s LV Rankings from White.

Las Vegas Rankings Top 30 - Week 5
Rank School Rating Last Week AP Rank
1 Alabama 118.9 1 1
2 Texas Christian 117.2 2 5
2 Ohio State 117.2 3 2
4 Boise State 116.9 5 3
5 Oregon 115.5 4 4
6 Stanford 114.8 9 9
7 Nebraska 114.5 7 6
8 Miami 114.1 14 16
9 Florida 113.9 11 7
10 Arkansas 113.7 10 15
11 Oklahoma 113.4 8 8
12 Arizona 112.4 12 14
13 Iowa 112.3 13 17
14 Southern California 112.2 15 18
15 Wisconsin 112.1 19 11
16 Texas 112.0 6 21
17 Auburn 111.9 18 10
18 LSU 111.7 17 12
19 Penn State 111.1 16 22
20 Florida State 111.0 24 27
21 Utah 110.9 23 13
22 Virginia Tech 110.5 26 NR
22 Michigan 110.5 22 19
24 South Carolina 110.1 20 20
25 Nevada 109.5 30 25
26 Texas A&M 109.1 30 NR
26 Missouri 109.1 28 28
28 Clemson 109.0 27 32
29 Oregon State 108.9 25 34
30 Georgia 108.6 20 NR
Next Ten: Mississippi State, California, UCLA, Mississippi, North Carolina State, Arizona State, Michigan State, Air Force, Oklahoma State and South Florida.
Dropped out of Top 30: None

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 06:07 PM

BYU at Utah State

A pair of teams hoping to resurrect disappointing seasons get that chance on the national stage Friday night when Utah State (1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) plays host to Brigham Young.

Most betting shops have installed BYU (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) as a five-point favorite with a total of 51 ½. Bettors can take Utah State to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

BoDog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner told VI on Wednesday afternoon, “We opened BYU at minus five and just about all the money from our players has come in on the Cougars. With that said, we haven’t moved to 5 ½ yet, but it certainly looks like we’re going to be Utah St. fans on Friday night.”

After going 11-2 in 2009, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has fallen on hard times. The Cougars have lost three in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 27-13 loss to Nevada as a four-point home underdog.

BYU opened the season by beating Washington by a 23-17 count as a three-point home favorite. However, since then, the Cougars have been outscored 96-37, going down 35-14 at Air Force and 34-10 at FSU.

In the loss to the Seminoles, junior QB Riley Nelson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Now true freshman Jake Heaps is the starter after he and Nelson split time the first three weeks.

Heaps completed 24-of-45 passes for 229 yards in last week’s loss to the Wolf Pack. Although Heaps didn’t have any TD passes, he didn’t commit a turnover. For the season, Heaps has connected on 54-of-105 attempts (51.4%) for 489 yards with one TD and one interception.

With RB Harvey Unga dismissed from the program in the offseason, junior J.J. Di Luigi has emerged as the Cougars’ go-to guy. Di Luigi has rushed 53 times for 332 yards and two TDs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He’s also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, as evidenced by 18 receptions for 200 yards and one TD.

Gary Andersen’s team is led by senior QB Diondre Borel, who has seen several of his playmakers go down with injuries this season. For starters, junior RB Robert Turbin hasn’t played all year due to a torn ACL. In ’09, Turbin was a second-team All-WAC selection, rushing for 1,296 yards and 12 TDs.

Also, junior WR Stanley Morrison is out for the season after breaking his foot in August. Morrison had a team-high 33 receptions for 616 yards and three TDs last year. Junior WR Matt Austin had earned a spot in the starting lineup, but he sustained a season-ending knee injury in the opener against Oklahoma.

The Aggies easily covered the number and hung extremely tough in their opener in Norman. The Sooners held on for a 31-24 victory, but Utah St. hooked up its backers as a 34-point underdog.

Utah St. bounced back the following week with a 38-17 win over Idaho St., but it failed to cover as a 31-point home favorite. Since then, the Aggies have lost back-to-back games vs. Fresno St. (41-24) and at San Diego St. (41-7).

Borel threw for a season-high 341 yards in the season-opening loss at OU, but he’s passed for just 236 yards in the last two games. Borel has a 4/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the year.

These in-state rivals have met 10 times since 1994 with BYU winning each time, but Utah St. has taken the cash at a 5-4-1 ATS clip. In fact, the Aggies have covered the number in the last two head-to-head encounters.

BYU won last year’s meeting 35-17, but the Aggies hooked up their backers as 24-point road underdogs. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 62 ½-point total. Unga ran for 118 yards and one touchdown for the winners, while Max Hall threw three TD passes. For Utah St., QB Diondre Borel threw for 213 yards and one TD without an interception and also ran for another score.

The ‘under’ has cashed in all four games for BYU this season. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for the Aggies, but the ‘over’ has hit in both of their home games.

This is BYU’s first road favorite spot this year. During Mendenhall’s six-year tenure, the Cougars are 11-9 ATS as road ‘chalk.’ Meanwhile, Utah St. is 1-2 ATS as a home ‘dog on Andersen’s watch.

ESPN will have Friday’s telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Utah St. senior starting OT Spencer Johnson was listed as “doubtful” (as of Wednesday afternoon) for the BYU game with an ankle sprain. Also, starting CB Chris Randle sat out last week’s loss at San Diego St. and is considered “questionable’ with an ankle sprain.

--BYU junior nose tackle Romney Fuga was lost for the season last week with a torn ACL. Fuga had 40 tackles in 2009.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings between BYU and Utah St.

--We mentioned BYU’s 10-game winning streak in the Battle for the “Beehive Boot.” Going back even further, the Cougars have won 20 of the last 21 games in this rivalry that includes 79 all-time meetings. Friday’s showdown will be the 80th encounter in series history.

--During Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure at Florida, the Gators have only been underdogs three times. They have covered the spread in all three instances. UF lost but covered at LSU in ’05 and ’07, and the Gators dealt out a 41-14 clubbing to Ohio St. as 7 ½-point underdogs in the 2006 BCS Championship Game.

--FSU is a seven-point favorite Saturday at Virginia. The Seminoles haven’t been to Charlottesville since 2005 when they dropped a 26-21 decision to UVA as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ The ‘Noles are an abysmal 6-11 ATS in their last 17 spots as road favorites.

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