NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (9/30 - 10/2)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 2

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks (-7, 66)

It may be early, but Pac-10 supremacy is at stake when Stanford visits Oregon Saturday night.

The No. 13 Cardinal are off to a surprising 4-0 start with victories over UCLA and Notre Dame. No. 4 Oregon yielded 597 yards to Arizona State last week, but took advantage of seven Sun Devil turnovers on the way to a 42-31 road win.

Saturday’s game could go a long way in determining the eventual conference champ and has certainly caught the nation’s eye. The start of the game was moved up to 8:15 p.m. to accommodate a primetime national TV audience. It will also be host site of ESPN’s "College GameDay."

Line moves/trends

Books opened with the Ducks as touchdown favorites at home. That number has dropped slightly to 6.5 as of Friday afternoon. As for the total, oddsmakers set a big number with two of the top offensive programs in the country going toe-to-toe. The total opened at 65 and had risen to 66.

Stanford is 2-6 in its last eight games against Oregon but has covered the past two meetings between these conference rivals. These teams have played over the number in their last five head-to-head contests.

Duck and cover

The last time the Ducks hosted the ESPN "GameDay" crew they upset USC last year on Halloween.

The Ducks have dominated the series with the Cardinal recently. Oregon has won seven of the past eight contests and the last four by an average of over 26 points. The Ducks have won 12 straight home games, nine straight in the conference.

Points should be aplenty. Oregon leads the nation in scoring at 57.8 ppg while Stanford is fourth, scoring over 47 points. And the Ducks strike in a hurry. Oregon has scored 11 touchdowns on drives of under a minute.

Oregon is led by sophomore running back LaMichael James who eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark for his career last week. James paces an offense that rushed for 528 yards against Portland State earlier in the year.

Senior linebacker Casey Matthews has a pair of interceptions and three fumble recoveries on the season and leads the Pac-10 in both categories.

Duck quarterback Darron Thomas made his Pac-10 debut against ASU and tossed a pair of touchdowns and ran for another score.

Lucky charm

Stanford is paced by quarterback Andrew Luck who has passed for 912 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. The Cardinal routed UCLA 35-0 in its Pac-10 opener. Stanford also rolled over Wake Forest and Notre Dame this season.

Stephan Taylor ran for 114 yards in Stanford’s 37-14 win at Notre Dame last week. He leads the team with 265 yards on the ground this season.

A win on Saturday would give Stanford its first 5-0 start since 1951, when the team won its first nine games out of the gate en route to the Rose Bowl.

Injury report

Stanford’s Ryan Whalen will miss his second straight game with an arm injury. Whalen is one of Luck’s favorite targets. Running back Jeremy Stewart is questionable with an ankle injury. He was injured in the Cardinal’s opener.

Oregon tight end Brandon Williams was questionable with a hand injury but practiced at full speed earlier this week. He is expected to play Saturday night.

Weather

The forecast at Autzen is calling for partially cloudy skies with game-time temperatures in the mid-70s. There is a 10 percent chance of rain and a 10-mph wind blowing across the field.


Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 44.5)

It’s still Oklahoma-Texas, one of the fiercest rivalries in college football.

Some of the intrigue leading up to the annual showdown between the Sooners and Longhorns in Dallas was lost last week, when UCLA exposed Texas with a head-scratching 34-12 rout in Austin. But there’s still plenty on the line in the 105th edition of the Red River Rivalry.

The winner will gain the upper hand in the Big 12 South and remain a factor in the BCS race. The loser will be left to fight an uphill battle to get back into any kind of title hunt.

Line moves/trends

Oddsmakers opened the Sooners as 4-point favorites for this weekend’s Red River Shootout. That has dropped as low as -3 at some markets. The total was set at 46.5 but has come down two points to 44.5 as of Friday afternoon.

Texas and Oklahoma have matching 1-3 ATS records on the season. However, the Longhorns have the edge at the window in this Big 12 battle. Texas is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games with OU, pushing with the 3-point spread in last year’s 16-13 victory. The over/under record is 2-3 in that five-year span.

Hook, line and sinker

The Longhorns (3-1) dropped all the way to 16th in the USA Today Coaches Poll after the stunning loss to UCLA. They will arrive at the Cotton Bowl Saturday with some serious concerns on offense.

Coach Mack Brown’s emphasis on the running game hasn’t produced quality results. Texas managed just 85 yards on the ground against UCLA and turned it over five times. First-year starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert has been inconsistent and has thrown as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns.

Sooner than later?

Oklahoma (4-0) withstood a fourth-quarter scare from Cincinnati to stay unbeaten last weekend. But, except for a Week 2 blowout of Florida State, nothing has been easy for Bob Stoops’ Sooners.

Oklahoma has jumped out to big leads in each of its first four games, but has failed to put away inferior opponents like Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati. They’ve avoided being upset with an opportunistic defense that has forced 12 turnovers.

Offensively, Oklahoma is loaded with playmakers like running back DeMarco Murray and wide receiver Ryan Broyles. Murray and Broyles have accounted for 11 touchdowns. Quarterback Landry Jones is completing 64 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

Yet, despite all those weapons, the Sooners have struggled to put together game-clinching drives. Oklahoma has been outscored 41-10 in the fourth quarter this season. And that’s against defenses with far less talent than what Texas possesses.

Red Dead Redemption

The Longhorns boast the nation’s second-ranked defense. They’re allowing only 227.75 yards and 18 points per game. Seven starters are back from last year’s defense, which held the Sooners to minus-16 yards rushing in a 16-13 win.

Oklahoma led all the way into the fourth quarter of last year’s Red River Shootout before Texas kicked what turned out to be a game-winning field goal with 12 minutes to play. Jones threw two interceptions on the Sooners’ final three drives, sending Oklahoma to its fourth loss in the last five meetings with the Longhorns.

Injury report

Oklahoma expects starting cornerback Jamell Fleming (ankle) to play. Reserve wide receiver Jaz Reynolds has been suspended indefinitely after posting an insensitive comment on Twitter regarding the recent shooting in Austin.

Injuries to Texas’ running backs have been a big factor to its rushing woes. Tre Newton and Cody Johnson, two of the four Longhorn running backs, are battling injuries. Both are expected to play but may not be at full strength.

Weather

There will be clear skies in Texas Saturday afternoon. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-80s in Dallas with a slight 12-mph breeze. There is a zero percent chance of precipitation.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 2

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Game of the day
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Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide (-8, 48)

No. 7 Florida meets No.1 Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Birmingham Saturday evening in a rematch from last year’s SEC title game, in which the Tide prevailed 32-13.

Circle this

Alabama set two school records in its win over Arkansas last week with its eighth consecutive victory against a ranked team and its fifth consecutive victory over a Top-10 team

For the second time in its history, the Crimson and White will be involved in games for two straight weeks in which both the Tide and its opponent were ranked in the AP Top 10.

In 1964, No. 3 Alabama beat No. 8 LSU 24-7 on November 7 and No. 10 Georgia Tech 24-7 on November 14.

When asked about a few Florida players saying they circled Saturday's game on their schedule, Alabama guard Barrett Jones said, "We know we're going to be circled on a lot of people's schedules. I don't say that to be arrogant, but when you win the national championship the year before, all the teams are going to be gunning for you.”

“When you have the success we've had, you have to learn to deal with success, so we're dealing with still being hungry, still working hard to be excellent."

Eight is great

Rex Grossman wore it. Percy Harvin wore it for a year. But none of them did what Trey Burton did last week.

Burton switched uniform numbers from No. 13 to No. 8 last week and scored six touchdowns in Florida’s 48-14 romp over Kentucky.

The freshman TE/Wildcat back was dubbed “Tebow Light” after last week’s dazzling performance.

"I thought he was a good player when we recruited him," said Gator head coach Urban Meyer. "We had no idea what we had until we figured it out during training camp. Versatility, intelligence, competitiveness. Those are things you just don't know until you get your hands on a player."

"We simplified things for him," Meyer went on to say. "He was a deer in the headlights.”

Despite the Gator Nation demanding a giant leap sans graduated superstar Tim Tebow, Florida has taken baby steps leading up to this point. The schedule has led a young team down the path to here.

In Gainesville, this week is about the four-letter word: B-A-M-A.

Can you say rivalry?

Florida has won two of the past three games in Tuscaloosa, the last coming in 1998.

The Gators only trip to Tuscaloosa in the past decade resulted in a 31-3 loss October 1, 2005. The loss marked his biggest margin of defeat as a head coach for Meyer.

The two teams have met three times since then with the Gators holding a 2-1 edge. Meyer, who is 2-2 in his career against Alabama, was asked Wednesday if he considers Alabama a rivalry game.

"When I was hired here, I was told about this," he said. "It's not like I created it. I was told there were three main rivals and let's go as hard as we can and have a little fun with it and the pageantry of college football."

Stalling around

The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame will honor former Crimson Tide coach Gene Stallings with a halftime salute during Saturday night's game.

He will be inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame December 7 in New York as a member of the 2010 class.

“The way Alabama can play defense and run the football, they're going to win. I think Alabama's the best football team. I think they'll win by 10 or 12 points,” Stallings said of Saturday’s game.

Streakers

Alabama has won 28 consecutive regular season games. If the Tide defeat Florida, it would establish a school record for consecutive regular season games without a loss.

The Tide did not lose in 28 regular season games in a streak from the third game of 1991 through the eighth game of 1993. However, the 26th game was a tie with Tennessee.

The Gators have won a school-record 24 consecutive regular season games.

Alabama and Florida have 30 victories apiece since the start of the 2008, the most in the nation.

In a clash of titans, Alabama has won 17 consecutive conference games. Florida has won 16.

The Crimson Tide has won the past 26 games in which it has scored first. The Gators have won the past 28 games in which it has scored first.

In addition, both teams will look to extend home and road win streaks in this contest. Florida has won 11 consecutive road games while Alabama has won 16 consecutive home games.

From the archives

• The No. 1 team in the AP poll has won the past 27 times that it has hosted a ranked team. The most recent No. 1 team to lose on its home field to another ranked opponent was Florida, which fell to Auburn 36-33 in 1994.

• Neither starting QB has ever lost a collegiate start: Alabama's Greg McElroy is 18-0 and Florida's John Brantley is 4-0.

• Of the 10 losses suffered by Meyer at Florida, SEC West teams have exacted seven of them.

• Florida has a 12-3 record against Top-10 opponents under Meyer.

• Florida is 3-7 against the No. 1 team.

• Alabama coach Nick Saban is 18-10 straight up and 15-11 against the spread in his college career against undefeated opposition, including 9-1 and 6-4 with the Tide.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 2

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Tips and Trends
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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

LONGHORNS: Texas has dominated their rivalry with Oklahoma of late, winning 4 of the past 5 meetings between the teams. The Longhorns will have to lean on this stat as the game approaches, because they simply aren't playing well right now. Texas was beaten soundly at home by UCLA, despite being a 16 point home favorite. Texas is only 1-3 ATS this season, losing all 3 games as a double digit favorite. The Longhorns lone ATS win was in their only conference game of the season, a road win at Texas Tech. Texas is very mediocre on offense this year, ranking only 68th in the nation with 26 PPG. Despite publicly stating their desire to rush the ball, the Longhorns are only averaging 135 YDS rushing this year, 76th in the nation. QB Garrett Gilbert has only thrown for more than 250 YDS once this season, and has more INT's than TD's in his past two games. Defensively, the Longhorns are only allowing 18 PPG, ranking them 33rd in the country.

Longhorns are 7-0 ATS last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - RB Tre' Newton (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 17

SOONERS: (-3.5, O/U 46.5) Oklahoma comes into the 105th edition of the Red River Shootout as the 8th ranked team in the nation. Regardless of whether they are playing like a Top 10 team is a whole other story. The Sooners have won their past 2 games SU by a total of 5 PTS, despite being double digit favorites in each contest. In their first game of the season, Oklahoma barely beat Utah St. 31-24 SU, despite being a 34 point favorite. The Sooners offense has been ahead of their defense this year, another example of how this year's team is different than years past. The Sooners are averaging nearly 309 passing YPG this season, the 10th most in the nation. QB Landry Jones has thrown for over 1,200 YDS this season, including 9 TD's. RB DeMarco Murray has rushed for nearly 500 YDS this season, along with 7 TD's to balance out this Sooners offense. Defensively, Oklahoma is allowing 23.5 PPG this year, only 65th in the nation. For the Sooners to continue to stay in the Top 10, they will have to improve drastically on defense.

Sooners are 1-7-1 ATS last 9 games following a SU win.
Under is 6-2 last 8 conference games.

Key Injuries - RB Brennan Clay (concussion) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)



Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide [CBS | 8:00 PM ET]

GATORS: Florida is easily peaking at the right time, as they are playing their best football of the season right now. Florida is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, winning each of their past 3 games ATS. Their latest SU and ATS win, a 48-14 blasting of Kentucky was easily their best played game this season to date. The Gators are in an unfamiliar role tonight, as they are the listed underdog for the first time in 39 games. Florida doesn't have the most dynamic of offenses this year, yet the are still putting points on the board. The Gators are averaging 37.8 PPG this season, 19th most in the nation. QB John Brantley will have to avoid making the costly turnover, and simply progress through his reads without getting rattled with the hostile environment. Trey Burton is likely to play a major role on offense tonight, as he is coming off a 6 TD performance against Kentucky last week. Defensively, the Gators are as good as ever, as they haven't allowed a single opponent to score more than 17 PTS this season. Florida is only allowing 14.3 PPG, the 15th best in the nation. The Gators typically play their best football on the road, going 12-3 ATS in their past 15 road games. The listed underdog in this series is 6-1-1 ATS in the past 8 meetings, yet another confidence booster for the Gators.

Gators are 12-2 ATS last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DT Lawrence Marsh (forearm) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)

CRIMSON TIDE: (-9.5, O/U 47.5) Alabama is coming into this rivalry game with momentum from their come from behind last week in Arkansas. The defending BCS champions are playing like just that, the consensus #1 team in the nation. Alabama is 3-1 ATS this season, with their lone loss coming in their best win of the season, last week at Arkansas. Alabama has a top 30 passing and rushing offense this season, leading to the 15th best scoring offense in the nation at 39.5 PPG. The Crimson Tide are very healthy right now, with RB Mark Ingram leading the way. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been dynamic since his return from injury. Ingram has already scored 4 TD's in limited action, and is averaging over 9 YPC this season. The Crimson Tide defense has been stellar this year, allowing a nation low 9.8 PPG this year. The Crimson Tide still has room for improvement defensively though, as they need to work on pressuring the QB more. The status of DL Marcell Dareus is a huge factor heading into this battle with Florida. Alabama is 6-1-1 ATS in their past 8 meetings against Florida.

Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 12-4-1 last 17 conference games.

Key Injuries - DL Marcell Dareus (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 24


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday's games
Highlighted games
Texas won four last five games vs Oklahoma, but got smoked by UCLA at home last week, giving up 264 rushing yards to team that threw only six passes all game. This is first time since '05 Longhorns are underdog in regular season- they're 4-0 as regular season dog since '00. Oklahoma is just 5-8 against spread in last 13 games as a favorite. 10 of last 12 games in series were decided by double digit margins.

Home team won last five Wisconsin-Michigan State games; average total in last three series games, 62.7. Spartans are 1-5-1 as home dog since '05. Badgers are 6-5-1 as road favorite under Bielema. Wisconsin is 9-4 in last thirteen series games; they outrushed Spartans 193-90 in LY's 38-30 win. MSU coach Dantonio will coach from press box, two weeks after having mild heart attack.

Road team won last two Northwestern-Minnesota games; Wildcats are 1-4 as road favorite since '07. Minnesota is 5-9 as home underdog since '02 (4-4 under Brewster). In last three weeks, Gophers lost at home to Sourh Dakota/USC/Northern Illinois-- Huskies ran ball for 297 yards in last week's 34-23 win. Wildcats survived 11 penalties in beating Central Michigan of MAC 30-25 (-7) last week.

NC State is last unbeaten team in ACC; they lost last two games against Virginia Tech, 20-16 (+3) at home in '05, 38-18 (+21) at Tech LY. State is 13-6 vs spread in last 19 games as underdog, 7-4 as a home dog under O'Brien. Hokies are 14-5-1 as road favorite since '04; they averaged 22 yards a completion in LY's win over State. Tech shut out Boston College on road LY, but State's Wilson is way better than any of BC's QBs.

Wake Forest lost 68-24/31-0 last two weeks, but they've covered nine of last 11 as home underdog (5-0 in that role since '06). Third road game in four weeks for Georgia Tech team that is 5-1 as road fave under Johnson, but they did lose as 13-point faves at Kansas earlier this season. Jackets (-14) nipped Wake 30-27 at home LY, running ball for 412 yards (6.6 yards per carry). Huge edge in QB esperience for Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame lost last three games, is favored over Boston College team that is changing QBs after getting shut out at home by Virginia Tech last week. BC won six of last seven series games, losing 20-16 in South Bend LY when they were -5 in turnovers. Irish are 6-6 in last dozen games as a road favorite. Irish allowed 99 points in losing last three weeks. Eagles are 7-4 as home underdog since '00.

Home team won eight of last ten Arizona St-Oregon St games; ASU lost last two visits here, 44-10/27-25, but covered last two games (lost by 1-11 points) after opening by beating pair of I-AA foes. ASU is 9-21-1 as road underdog since 2001, but they did cover at Wisconsin couple weeks ago. Beavers are 10-7 as home fave since '06, but covered just one of last five in that role. ASU coach Erickson coached OSU from 1999-2002.

Florida State (3-1) hasn't played a close game yet, with 34-10 win over BYU their closest game this year; Seminoles lost four of last six games on road, are 6-11 as road favorite since '04. Favorites covered all three of their lined games this year. Virginia was 1-3 as home dog LY, after being 16-5 in previous 21 tries; Cavaliers beat two I-AA teams around a 17-14 loss at USC (outgained Trojans 340-329, outrushed them 150-127).

Florida/Alabama met for SEC title last two years (1-1), split their last four meetings overall, with all four games decided by 11+ points; Gators are 7-0 as road underdog since '03. Tide is 9-6 as home favorite since '08; they gutted out 24-20 win at Arkansas last week (were down 17-7 at the half), outrushing Hogs 228-60, but giving up 354 passing yards. Florida is rebuilding, but is still 4-0 this season, averaging 37.8 ppg.

Iowa is 5-3 in last eight games vs Penn State, upsetting Lions 21-10 (+9) in Happy Valley LY; Hawkeyes are 31-17 as home favorite since 2001, just 7-6 in last 13 tries. Penn State is 2-7 as an underdog since '06, 2-1 in bowls, 0-6 in regular season; they're 0-4 as road dog since '06. Lions lost 24-3 in freshman QB Bolden's first road start (outgained 409-283); PSU was 14-31/156 passing (three INTs) in loss to the Tide.

Washington (+19) upset USC 16-13 in SeattleLY; Huskies had week off to get ready for this, but are just 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as road underdog. U-Dub lost last two visits here, 26-20/56-0. USC is 2-5 in last seven tries as home favorite; they've got showdown with Stanford next, but revenge motive should keep them focused. One of last chances for senior QB Locker to show that he's an elite college quarterback.

Road team won last two Miami-Clemson games, with both games going OT, and average total, 71.5. Third road game in four weeks for Miami, an easy winner at Pitt- they're 6-10 as road favorite since '05, 5-4 since '08. Clemson is 17-7 as underdog since '03, 7-2 at home; they had last week off after tough 27-24 loss in OT at Auburn (led 17-3 at half); they're 10 for 35 on 3rd down, part of why they struggled in 2nd half at Auburn.

Stanford's 51-42 home win (+7) over Oregon LY was Cardinal's first in last eight series games; Stanford lost last two visits here, 48-10/35-28). Cardinal beat Notre Dame last week, has USC up next, but this is bigger than either of those. Oregon is 36-24 vs spread in Pac-10 play since '03, 19-8 in last 27 games as home favorite. Stanford is just 5-8 as road dog under Harbaugh. Both quarterbacks in this game are sophomores.


Rest of the Card
-- Vanderbilt is 21-5-2 as road underdog since 2003, but 10-14-2 in its non-SEC games since '02. UConn is 16-11-2 as home fave since '02; they play Rutgers on ESPN next Friday.
-- Eastern Michigan was outscored 125-34 in last two games; Eagles are 5-10 as home underdog since '06. Ohio is 0-3 vs D-I teams; they're 6-5 as a road favorite under Solich.
-- Central Michigan is 8-1 vs spread in last nine lined games; they're 11-2 in last 13 games as home favorite. Road team won their last three games against Ball State, which lost last three games (lost to I-AA Liberty).
-- Michigan won last 16 games vs Indiana, winning last seven visits here, but Wolverines are just 1-4-1 in last six games as road favorite. Since '00, Indiana is 13-23 as home underdog, 5-6 since 2007.
-- Skip Holtz is 14-6 in last 20 games as a road underdog. North Carolina has NCAA breathing down its neck, should never be used to lay double digits- they're 10-20 as home favorite since 2000.

-- Maryland lost 17-13 at Duke, their first loss in last six series games; teams combined for 9- rushing yards LY. Duke is 28-15 as road dog since '05. Terps are just 4-13 as home favorite since '04.
-- Rutgers is 6-8 as home favorite since '07; they play on ESPN against Conn next Friday. Tulane lost 42-23 last week to Houston's 3rd-string QB. Green Wave is 16-23 as road underdog since 2003.
-- Trap game for 3-1 Temple coming off loss at Penn State (outgained by 439-202, but led 13-9 at half). Owls are 3-2 as road favorite since 2003. Army scored 29.5 ppg in winning three of its first four games.
-- Favorite covered last six Texas Tech-Iowa State game; Tech won last two meetings, 42-26/42-17- they're 6-2 in last eight games as road fave. Cyclones are 11-18 as home dog since '00 (1-4 vs spread in last five).
-- Home side won five of last six Kentucky-Ole Miss games; Wildcats are 6-3 vs spread as road dog since '08. Ole Miss is 8-4 as home favorite under Nutt, but just 3-6 vs spread in last nine SEC games.

-- Tulsa scored 35 ppg in winning last three games vs Memphis, but two of the three games went OT; Hurricane is 6-8-1 as road favorite since Graham became coach. Tigers are 7-8 as home dog since '06.
-- Baylor is 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite; they lost 58-10 at Kansas in last meeting (2007); think seniors remember? Kansas is 12-17 as road dog since '01. Baylor played Buffalo, Gill's old team 3 weeks ago.
-- Kent State beat Miami OH last two years, 54-21 (+4.5)/29-19 (-7). Flashes had week off after losses to BC/Penn State. Miami is 9-7 as dog at home since '00. Kent State is 2-5 as road favorite since '05.
-- Idaho now 2-8 as road favorite since '00 after Colorado State's 36-34 upset win last week; Vandals lost 51-28 (+8) at home two years ago to Western Michigan, which is 0-2-1 as home dog since 2007.
-- TCU is 4-0, averaging 44.5 ppg; they've won last five games by 32-9 average, but won just 13-7 in last visit here (-15). Rams were outscored 106-19 in losing first three games, before upsetting Idaho last week.

-- Navy won last seven games vs Air Force, with four of last five losses by 7 or less points; Falcons are 9-3 vs spread as home fave with Calhoun as coach. Middies are 19-7 as a road underdog since 2002.
-- Bowling Green won four of last five games vs Buffalo, with three of last four games decided by 1 point or in OT. Bulls are 0-3 this season vs I-AA teams, outscored 103-37. Bulls are 16-8 as road dog since '06.
-- Tennessee is 5-2 as road underdog since '08; teams haven't met since LSU's 21-14 win (-7) in '07 SEC title game. LSU is 12-20-1 as home fave under Miles- they have bigger game against Florida next week.
-- Washington State lost its three games vs I-A foes by average score of 50-18; Coogs are 10-17 as road dog since 2004. UCLA covered 17 of its last 24 as home favorite; they had huge upset win at Texas last week.
-- Ohio State won its last seven visits to Illinois by average of 18 points; Buckeyes are 15-5 as road favorite since '06- this is their first road game this year. Illinois is 9-12 as home underdog since 2003.

-- Georgia just lost three SEC games in row, is on road for third time in last four weeks; Colorado didn't play last week. Dawgs are 4-6-1 as road favorite since 2006. Buffaloes are 5-2 in last seven tries as home dog.
-- Akron allowed 36.7 ppg in losing its three games vs I-A teams so far this year, losing by 26-37-15 points- they also lost to Gardner-Webb, a I-AA team. Huskies are 15-12 as road favorite since '00.
-- New Mexico was outscored 225-41 (average 54-10) in losing first four games this year; Lobos are 4-8 as home dog since 2006. UTEP is 3-9 as road favorite since 2005- they won last two games, allowing 23 points.
-- Wyoming had Air Force on ropes last week, lost 20-14 when Falcons scored twice in 4th quarter; Cowboys are 0-3 vs I-A teams, scoring total of 27 points- they're 5-2 as road dog under Christensen.
-- Rice won three of last four games vs SMU, with average totals in the four games, 71.3, but Owls are 1-3 this year, with all three losses by 17 points- they allowed 30+ points in all three games.

-- Southern Mississippi allowed 28 points in winning its last two games; they're 7-4 as home favorite under Fedora. Marshall is 9-17 as road dog since 2005; they allowed 45-44 points in losing their two road games.
-- Keep in mind Boise State can't take it easy on New Mexico State or pollsters will hold it against them. Broncos scored 40.3 ppg in winning first three games, by 3-45-11 points. Aggies are 0-3, losing by 20-31-26 points, giving up 41-42-42 points.
-- Nevada ran ball for 559 yards in LY's 63-28 win over UNLV, 5th win in row for Wolf Pack over their in-state rivals; they won last two visits here, 31-3/49-27. Favorite is 3-0-1 vs spread in UNLV games this year.
-- Home side won five of last six La Tech-Hawai'i games; Bulldogs lost last two visits here, 61-17/24-14. Bulldogs are 8-27 vs spread in last 35 games as road dog- they lost 48-16 at Texas A&M in first '10 road tilt.

-- FIU led in 4th quarter at Texas A&M, was tied 14-14 in second half at Maryland last week (lost 28-14); Panthers are 8-12 as road dog under Cristobal. Panthers are 0-2 vs I-A opponents, losing to Miami, at Utah.
-- Arkansas State scored 28 ppg but still lost three of first four games, losing road games by 26-7-7 points (2-1 as road dog). ASU is 1-3 as dog on road since 2005. Louisville is 6-9 as road favorite since 2005.
-- UL-Lafayette won four of last five games vs North Texas, winning last two visits here, 31-28/59-30. Ragin'Cajuns allowed 37.7 ppg in 1-2 start this year. UNT is 1-7 vs spread as home favorite since 2003.
-- Auburn won tough game over South Carolina LY, has Kentucky next, could let up vs UL-Monroe club they waxed 34-0 (-26) two years ago. ULM (+34) lost 31-7 at Arkansas in similar scenario in season opener.
-- South Florida (-17) won 35-23 at Florida Atlantic back in '07; USF is 3-4 as home favorite since '08, 4-7 vs spread in last 11 non-league tilts. Owls are 11-19-1 as road underdog since 2005.

[Kaptain]

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