The Bum's NFL Week 3 (9/26 - 9/27) BEST BETS !

[StarDust Bum]

Gotta love that last TD before the half by the Steelers.........pile it on baby......

[StarDust Bum]

A very good day.....Winning my game of the month with Pittsburg blowing out Tampa Bay....And a Sunday night winner with the Jets......

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/26/10 17-11-0 60.71% +2450 Detail
09/20/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/19/10 19-11-0 63.33% +3450 Detail
09/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/12/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
09/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/02/10 14-15-3 48.28% -1250 Detail
Totals 68-53-3 56.20% +4850

Cya Tomorrow night.........

[Kaptain]

atta boy BUM

good job BUM....great call on PITTSBURGH

[jt4545]

great picking bum

[StarDust Bum]

Green Bay at Chicago

Eight teams entered Week 3 with 2-0 records and four of them were handed losses on Sunday. Tonight from Soldier Field, one more club will join that group as Chicago (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) welcomes Green Bay (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) in a NFC North battle.

Most betting shops in Las Vegas had the Packers listed as the second choice to win the NFC and Super Bowl XLV behind the Saints this season, so their quick start is no surprise. However, some pundits predicted Chicago to finish last in its division. After coming off a 7-9 season, head coach Lovie Smith was considered on the hot seat and many critics believe he’s gone unless the team makes a serious run.

The Bears received a questionable win over Detroit (19-14) in Week 1 when Calvin Johnson’s late score for the Lions was reversed. Despite the lucky victory, Chicago went on the road the very next week and stunned Dallas 27-20 as a seven-point underdog. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (649 yards, 5 TDs) seems more relaxed so far and he only has one interception through two games, after tossing 26 last year.

Defensively, Smith’s squad has also looked sharp. The unit has only allowed 289 YPG and they’ve forced six turnovers. With all due respect to the Lions and Cowboys, the Packers’ offense is averaging a league best 30.5 points per game and will be a much bigger test for the Bears tonight. Chicago picked up defensive end Julius Peppers in the offseason to bolster its pass rush but the defense only has two sacks after two games.

If that doesn’t change tonight, then we should expect Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers (443 yards, 4 TDs) to sit back and dice up the secondary. While Rodgers has been great, the ground game for the Packers has taken a hit with the loss of Ryan Grant (ankle) for the season. Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn have been part of the running back by committee approach, but it’s safe to say that Mike McCarthy’s team is a pass-first bunch. Green Bay’s offensive line has been beat up this season too, yet tackle Chad Clifton (knee) and guard Daryn Colledge (knee) are both listed as ‘probable’ according to the Pro Live Odds service from VegasInsider.com. Chicago doesn’t have any notable injuries for tonight’s affair.

For tonight, Green Bay is listed as a three-point road favorite over Chicago. Playing underdogs this season has been profitable so far and ‘chalk’ players were burned yesterday as well.

Underdogs posted a 10-5 ATS record on Sunday and that included outright home ‘dog wins by Kansas City (+3), St. Louis (+4.5) and Seattle (+4).

Can Chicago join the mix and improve to 3-0 like Pittsburgh and Kansas City? Or will the Bears get exposed and look like the Texans and Buccaneers did yesterday? We’d include the Saints and Dolphins in that mix, but the pair played decent plus they lost to legit teams in the Falcons and Jets respectively.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers pointed out some strong trends that could have you leaning toward the visitor tonight. “Chicago has not succeeded as an underdog off a win since 2005, going 3-13 SU and 3-10-3 ATS, including 12 consecutive SU losses. Also, Green Bay has been a strong road play inside the division under Mike McCarthy, owning a 10-2 ATS mark,” explained Rogers.

While those numbers are telling, keep in mind that Chicago has played well on MNF under Lovie, going 4-1 in five appearances. Plus, the Packers are just 3-8 in their last 11 under the MNF lights.

And if you look at this year’s Monday Night Football schedule, you’ll see that underdogs have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS this season. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 on MNF this year, but it could be 3-0 if it wasn’t for some late fireworks and conversions in last week’s battle between the Saints and 49ers (25-22).

The total for tonight is hovering between 45 and 46 and like most other primetime affairs, bettors should expect it to rise by kickoff. Green Bay has shown that it can score (34, 27) this season, but the ‘under’ has still produced a 2-0 mark. The Bears have a 1-1 total record.

Green Bay has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings against Chicago, which includes last year’s sweep (21-14, 21-15). All four games went ‘under’ the number. It should also be noted that Rodgers has been the starting QB for the Packers in all four of these affairs and ironically the lone loss (17-20, OT) came in 2008 at Soldier Field, which was on a Monday as well.

Does history repeat itself tonight? Find out at 8:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Strong-armed QBs square off on Monday night
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-0)
at CHICAGO BEARS (2-0)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 46

The Bears’ new offense will be put to the test when they go against Green Bay’s elite defense. The Packers’ pass rush and physical group of cover corners, combined with a Chicago passing game that relies on a lot of deep passes, means Bears QB Jay Cutler will be in harm’s way often. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers and company could take advantage of a weak Chicago secondary. The Pack have won five of their past six ATS on the road.

Green Bay appears to be at full strength with CB Charles Woodson and LT Chad Clifton expected to play through their injuries. The Bears will be without two players suffering hamstring woes, LT Chris Williams and safety Major Wright.

The Packers have won four straight ATS against Chicago, and this FoxSheets trend expects Green Bay to win and cover for the fifth time in a row:

Mike McCarthy is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.4, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under on Monday night.

CHICAGO is 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 16.0, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/26/10 18-12-0 60.00% +2400 Detail
09/20/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/19/10 19-11-0 63.33% +3450 Detail
09/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/12/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
09/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/02/10 14-15-3 48.28% -1250 Detail
Totals 69-54-3 56.10% +4800

Monday, September 27Game Score Status Pick Amount

Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET Chicago +3 500 *****

Chicago - Over 46 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Odds: Packers pounding Bears lately

The Green Bay Packers have defeated the Chicago Bears in 13 of their last 16 series meetings at Solider Field, and have covered the spread 12 times in the process. Both teams enter this matchup with identical 2-0 SU records.

But if Jay Cutler plays as well as he did last Sunday against Dallas, the Packers are going to be in trouble during the Monday night ESPN telecast when they meet the Bears at Solider Field.

Most offshore sportsbooks monitored by the Don Best betting odds have the Packers as three-point road favorites, with the total at 46.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s with wind blowing 13 mph and a 10 percent chance of rain.

The unpredictable Cutler was magnificent last week in sparking the Bears to a 27-20 victory against the Cowboys as seven-point road favorites. Cutler hung tough against heavy pressure to execute offensive coordinator Mike Martz's passing attack by going 21-for-27 for 277 yards and three touchdowns.

The Packers intercepted Cutler six times in sweeping Chicago last season, 21-15 at home as 4 ½-point favorites and 21-14 as four-point road favorites. Both contests went ‘under' the total.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

This could very well be a shootout, as Aaron Rodgers also had a strong performance last week in a 34-7 home win against Buffalo. Rodgers helped Green Bay easily cover a 12 ½-point spread by completing 19-of-29 throws for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The combined 41 points dipped ‘under' the closing total of 43.

Sparked by Rodgers, the Packers have scored an NFL-high 61 points.

The key could be the play of the offensive lines, which have been shaky. Counting preseason, Chicago has yielded 24 sacks.

Bears offensive tackle Chris Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and may miss the game. Frank Omiyale moved from right tackle to left tackle when Williams was hurt last week and didn't yield a sack.

The Bears must be careful with linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the NFL with six sacks.

The Packers must account for Julius Peppers and a rejuvenated Brian Urlacher. Chad Clifton, the Packers' veteran offensive left tackle, was taken out of the Bills' game because of knee soreness. The Packers have rookie Bryan Bulaga, an Illinois native and their first-round draft choice, ready if Clifton can't handle Peppers.

The Bears only have two sacks, but rank No. 1 versus the run. They have held the Lions and Cowboys to a combined average of 1.4 yards per carry. The Packers lost No. 1 back Ryan Grant, for the season with an ankle injury. Backup Brandon Jackson is not a heavy-duty replacement.

Matt Forte, Chicago's top running back, is playing even better than he did when he was a rookie in 2008 following a down season last year. He's been used much more as a receiver with Martz calling the offensive shots. Forte has caught three touchdown passes, while accounting for a combined 277 yards receiving and rushing.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

The long-time rivals have met seven times at night - five on Monday and two on Sunday - and Green Bay has won six of the seven. Green Bay has outscored Chicago, 203-107, during that span.

Green Bay is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games. The Packers also have covered in 11 of their past 14 September games. They are 6-1-1 in their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Chicago is 2-0 for the first time since 2006, the season it reached the Super Bowl. The Bears, though, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, including going 1-5 ATS during their last six games at Solider Field.

The Bears have defeated the Packers in seven of the past 12 meetings since Lovie Smith became their head coach. Green Bay was 20-3 versus Chicago before Smith took over.

[StarDust Bum]

Boy oh Boy....at this rate don't think this game is going over the total.....chicago looks sad......